All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade (09/22/03; 23:20:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 109218)
U.S. Natural Gas May Reach Record High This Winter
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=aFfNQ96mS8m8
Snippit:
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- North American natural-gas may climb to a record for a second straight winter as cold weather stokes demand and production declines, say buyers such as David Hawk, who purchases fuel for french-fry maker J.R. Simplot Co. in Boise, Idaho. Competition for shrinking supplies may push prices past the all-time high of $11.899 per million British thermal units set on Feb. 25. Gas for October delivery was little changed today at $4.475 per million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. ``The gas market will go crazy as soon as it gets cold,'' said Hawk, who buys gas for 17 french-fry and fertilizer factories in North America. ``Storage is getting filled but not everyone will have enough to fill out their winter requirements.'' Hawk and other gas buyers expect prices to rise because there is too little gas stored in underground caverns to provide a cushion during cold snaps. Simplot has been buying gas all summer and paying to have it stored, Hawk said.
The Energy Department predicts gas inventories will reach about 3 trillion cubic feet by November, typical for the start of the November-to-March heating season. Gas prices have fallen 22 percent the past three months as gas in storage has climbed nearer that level. Still, a near-record 3.127 trillion cubic feet in storage last year didn't prevent a run-up. ``We are in the same configuration as we were going into last winter,'' said Jim Duncan, head of research at ConocoPhillips in Houston, the fifth-largest U.S. gas producer. ``I am extremely concerned about short-term supply in the natural- gas market.'' Duncan said ``short term'' refers to the next three to four years.
Natural gas futures already suggest that the fuel will be expensive all winter. The average for the heating season is $5.067 per million Btu, based on futures prices for November through March. That's 19 percent higher than a year ago, and 148 percent above the average price of $2.04 through the 1990s.
The analysts and gas buyers who do expect higher prices point to rising U.S. demand and declining production. Demand for natural gas from U.S. factories, power plants, homeowners and commercial establishments last winter rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier, to 10.6 trillion cubic feet, according to the Energy Department. Increasing consumption in winter means that stored gas, stowed into underground caverns, covers a smaller portion of total needs. Last winter, 30 percent of U.S. demand was met with stored gas, down from 33 percent two years ago. If reserves start the season at 3 trillion cubic feet and demand is unchanged, coverage will decline to 29 percent this winter.
U.S. production dropped 3.2 percent in 2002 from a 27-year high. In Canada, source of a fifth of U.S. gas, production stagnated and exports to the U.S. dropped 0.9 percent to 10.5 billion cubic feet a day, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Canadian exports have continued to decline this year, Canada's National Energy Board said. Domestic gas output is forecast to drop another 1.9 percent by the end of this year, because new wells aren't producing enough gas to offset lost production from older, exhausted sites, according to JP Morgan Chase & Co. analysts.
U.S. gas producers need to replace 14 billion cubic feet of daily output as old wells dry up, said Steve Becker, vice president of gas development at TransCanada Corp., Canada's biggest pipeline company by revenue. ``That's a tremendous amount of new supply to find,'' Becker said at Interchange Energy's LDC Forum in Oakbrook, Illinois, two weeks ago. Even with futures prices up 19 percent in the past year, the volatility of those prices is discouraging exploration and drilling for new deposits, he said. ``Regardless of what the drilling rate is, there's no new gas,'' Duncan said. ``There's no new finds. We're sticking new holes into the same bag of gas.''
The higher prices have already forced some chemical, plastics and fertilizer makers that use gas as a feedstock or fuel to switch to cheaper oil-based alternative fuels or curtail production. Utilities that provide gas to homeowners for heat will pay any price to secure supplies, said Fred Hunzeker, president of Tenaska Marketing Ventures.
Black Blade: With 300 million mcf additional demand per year demand over the last three years suggests that even with 3 tcf in storage it may still be a tight supply situation again. Especially so if NOAA and NWS projections of a colder winter play out (even the Farmers Almanac says a colder winter but I don't put any stock in that myself). Some regions will be tighter than others thanks to bottlenecks and lack of sufficient pipeline capacity to deliver NatGas supply to markets where demand is higher and supply is short. I look for more price spikes just like last year when we had record storage levels. Canada and Mexico will be of no help this year either. Canada has it's own shortage with declining production and Mexico is now a net importer of US NatGas. I was at a conference this last Saturday and was able to pin down a couple of old corporate exec friends as well as talked to another today by phone. The same old story is that production is falling and injection into storage is coming from high cost production pre-sold to marketers. Another point to a man is the lack of permitting for public land access and siting of new pipelines and wires. Next year it is said to get very ugly without any increasing domestic production regardless of holw many drill rigs are turning. This should definitely get interesting.
Druid (09/22/03; 23:14:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 109217)
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 19:15:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 109201)
http://www.bis.org/index.htm
"I just saw your post and I am not sure I comprehended your point. So, the WGC is aligned with the big, global players? Surprise, surprise. What did I miss? I guess I need more specific infrastructure alignment."
Druid: GFG, I'm not so sure I understand myself sometimes, but hey, that is what makes life oh so very interesting. I'm not so sure I fully understand who the players are, how they align and what their "real" agendas are but it appears that the world Central Bankers as represented by the IMF and BIS are in a heated competition for the services, and financial instruments they have to offer. My guess is that the WGC is aligned with the dollar faction which is represented by the IMF so I don't believe anything the WGC has to offer is in our(PGA's) best interest. There is a huge disproportionate amount of dollars circulating the globe(hot money)that is referred to as "speculative capital." This is outright inflation looking for a place to delude. The same insanity that happened in the tech sector that destroyed any and all metrics of rational valuations would do double the delusion in the gold and silver sectors because of how small these sectors are. I'm sorry, basic logic says you can't have it both ways. I can already see the P/E ratios. Thus, introducing more paper instruments to sop this inflation up isn't the answer, but, wall street is about marketing and myth making. Correct me if I'm wrong but was it you the other night that stated something about "you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink?" If so, you brought back some wonderful memories for me that are more prevalent today then when I took the coursework some 12 years ago. I had a crazy economics professor(man was this guy a mess, he's the reason I majored in it) who used to literally yell out these euphemisms when trying to make a point. This one concerning a horse and another concerning a string were always his favorites he used when discussing banking and monetary policy. He would always say that if you wanted to predict a certain outcome within a short time frame so as to provide linkage between cause and effect, feed the horse salt tablets all day and/or starch the string enough and you could direct a behavior. While back then, I didn't quite understand what he was getting at, today it is crystal clear. This is why I've pretty much thrown away all the textbook garbage I've learned along the way in lieu of a more conservative approach to "investing." GFG, it is wonderful to have you here at MK's House of learning.
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 22:50:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 109216)
Oops! DryWasher @ msg. #109166 and Gondolin @ msg. #109159
I was at work when you posted your messages and I almost forgot to thank you!
Your words were very encouraging in giving me the willingness to put forth the effort to post here. Thank you for making me feel welcome!
I just hope some don't rue the day they were supportive! I may be off-the-wall sometimes, but my heart is in the right place (so says I).
Thanks again!
Lady GFG
Black Blade (09/22/03; 22:45:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 109215)
Market Wrap Up – Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippits:
The Real Bull Market
Coffee prices are up this year and so is the price of wheat, sugar, lead, copper, oil, natural gas, platinum, gold and silver. Since hitting a bottom in the summer of 2001, commodity prices in general have done nothing but head north.
If the public is hungry for stocks again, what is the smart money buying? Judging from the movement in commodity prices over the last few years, they are moving into hard assets in a big way. Gold and silver top the list, but their buying does not stop there. Commodity prices in general are on the move from metals to soft goods, grains and energy. Just about everything is up this year, but very few investors have noticed. That is how bull markets begin. They begin quietly when nobody is paying attention. The smart money moves in first and accumulates its position. Eventually the trend catches on at the institutional level. Once institutions catch on, the next leg of the bull market is set to begin. It is when the public catches on that a bull market enters into its final stages. The cable channels are telling John Q. to buy stocks, especially technology shares where there is record insider selling, so he is buying with billions going into mutual funds each week. As far as investing in commodities, it isn't even on John Q.'s radar screen. The cable channels very seldom talk about investing in commodities and only then to disparage them. It hasn't even dawned on them that a new bull market has begun. It is amusing to hear chatter coming from the financial press that gold and silver equity shares are in a bubble; while they ignore the real bubble in paper assets.
It is one of the driving factors behind the migration out of paper assets. The smart money is bailing out of paper because it knows that the value of paper is eroding with every new dollar that the Fed creates. Right now the Fed is big on printing money and expanding credit. When the Fed does this, it creates inflation. Inflation has and will always be a monetary phenomenon and its source will always be governments or their central banks.
Today the markets got a reality check regarding the strong dollar policy of the U.S. It is becoming more apparent with the U.S. trade deficit expanding that a strong dollar policy, given America's debt position, is no longer a reality. America's trade deficits and budget deficits resemble and look more like a third world nation than it does a superpower. We are only a superpower when it comes to our military. Economically we have gone into decline. One of the foremost trademarks of an empire in decline is a debasement of its currency. That is what has been happening to the dollar since 2001. The next round of dollar depreciation has just begun as a result of this last weekend. This weekend's agreement between the G7 countries to let the dollar fall is one more quiver in the argument for a new bull market in commodities.
What is important to understand is that the investment game is about to change. The G7 who have been unable to reach an accord or broad consensus on anything recently are finally in agreement. The agreement is to let the dollar fall. Traders believe that this latest agreement means that the Japanese (who have been big buyers of U.S. Treasury debt) will be scaling back their Treasury bond purchases. That will mean a lower dollar and higher interest rates. Without Asian central bank support, interest rates will be heading up unless the Fed starts monetizing the government's deficits. Now currency debasement will be attempted in the hopes that a cheaper dollar will make imports more expensive and American goods more competitive.
The next leg of the dollar's decline could send gold and silver prices to levels that have not been seen in over a decade. As the dollar falls and as other central banks weaken their currencies, we could find ourselves repeating the 1930s "beggar thy neighbor" policies as each country tries to outdo its neighbors in depreciating its currency. The debasement of currencies and especially the dollar is one of the main crosscurrents behind transition from paper to hard assets.
Precious metals: silver first gold second
Energy: natural gas first oil second
Water
Food
Today's Market
Black Blade: An interesting article tonight from Puplava. The largest US export is the US dollar. Jobs are also high on the list. US companies are cutting costs faster and deeper than ever before. We are exporting over 4,000 jobs a week and rising. There are many careers that are going the way of the dinosaur in the US. One would have to be rather foolish to seek a career in technology now. An Indian with an upper level degree in technology (you name the position) can do the same job as an American for one tenth of the cost. If you are seeking a career in technology then learn Cantonese as well. Engineering is another career path on the way out for Americans. Again, foreign nationals are cheaper for most engineering jobs as manufacturers and researcher and development departments move offshore. Banker, brokers, Wall Street professionals are dinosaurs on the path to extinction as well. Who needs the NYSE trading floor? It will be largely computerized by the end of the decade like the NASDAQ making these jobs obsolete. Blue collar labor is a toss up depending of the type of job involved. Assembly line works is likely to be phased out in favor of cheaper non-union work offshore. If you can get into a real career that is dependent on domestic production and services. Of course, prepare by getting "portfolio insurance" into your investment portfolios. Domestic miners and petroleum workers (those who were derided by the techies as "earth rapers") will have among the best viable jobs before long as they will be producing actual assets from the earth. Of course medical professionals will be in demand as the Baby Boomers age but will be buying their cheaper prescription drugs from offshore pharmaceutical companies and served by cheap doctors imported by cost conscious HMOs. Kind of interesting how things have turned around so quickly as the "New Economy" industries and "Old Economies" industry have suddenly become unviable in the US.
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 22:18:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 109214)
Yukon @ msgs. #109208 and 109209
Hey, Yukon, I couldn't go to bed without acknowleding your posts. I enjoyed them. Thanks for the 2nd on the WGC vote! (I suspect it's futile, but I was taught "It never hurts to ask.")
You surely don't need any input from me about your 401(k). But, true to form, I will speak my mind whether wanted or not!
I did the same as you (contributing up to the employer's match) back when I still worked in that environ. If I were still there today...hmmm.
First, I don't believe I'll ever collect any of the Social Security that I've been forcibly contributing to. That will probably go poof! whenever the government has to actually live up to it (or we'll be so hyper-inflated that all those years of "contributing" will buy me a Big Mac or a can of cat food (for human consumption). So, do I trust 401(k)/pension plans any more than Social Security? Probably not. Sadly, I have become SO mistrustful of anyone but me managing my economic affairs! They just don't think like I do, you know?
It's all a gamble. I just happen to trust the reliability of gold (now that it's in a bull market). I would not have been a good gold bug through all those bear years -- but I got in during the early bull months and am enormously grateful! So, you do your own calculations and decide whether all that 401(k) has the ability to be there for you when you retire. Do a cross-check with what your estimate would be if you had invested those funds in physical Precious Metals (taxes be damned!).
Obviously, if your 401(k) offers you the ability to invest in any PM stocks, funds like Tocqueville or Gabelli, or (ech) the ETF, then I would probably invest in them with the same mentality I use with the few gold/silver stocks I own. But, I would really have to think hard if my 401(k) gave me none of these options. Energy stocks? I know nothing about them. Other commodities? There probably are options, but I just don't know them!
Whatever you do, I suspect you're "hedging" your 401(k) with physical gold and silver! That's very wise, IMO.
Good luck (and goodnight) to you, Yukon.
Lady GFG
Great Albino Bat (09/22/03; 22:17:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 109213)
Lady Grateful for Gold is very perceptive
Gentlemen and Lady GratefulforGold, thanks for your opinions on the ETF. It is encouraging to see that no one of us is claiming that he and only he, is absolutely right in his predictions. We are all only making what seem to us, the most logical deductions from our experience.
My experience is to doubt that good things can ever begin to come from persons or institutions that have manifested destructive behavior. People and the institutions they run, do not change, as a rule. Therefore, as Lady GratefulforGold has said, let us seriously doubt that a pusher of paper for a state employees' retirement fund, the famous CALPERS, is going to have the tiniest conception of the importance of gold.
Such a person, now heads the WGC, right?
Paper Avalanche: you may be saying something important, but I'd like to figure out what it is you are saying. Basically,it appears you feel that the dollar is going down and out pretty soon, and that the paper manipulation of the price of gold cannot be continued. But what you say, just does not convince me entirely. I wish it did!
This fund, with proper pushing from all the media, all of a sudden, is going to get millions upon millions of individuals to send money to the ETF, for "investment in gold". But is that investment really going to take place? With all that money, the ETF managers, those nice people from the WGC who have done such magnificent work for gold as an investment by promoting jewelry trinkets, are going to have a lot of ammunition to use AGAINST GOLD.
But they would not do that, now would they? No-o-o-o-o! Of course NOT! That would be such a nasty, illegal thing to do, they could not possibly do such a thing, ever, ever, ever!
This ETF is a "judo move": use the momentum of your oponent to overthrow him, not your own strength.
Gold is becoming dangerously attractive. Time to launch a vehicle which will pick up large, very large amounts of cash, and use the same cash to FRUSTRATE the expectations of the public that sent in the money.
The ETF will have as its primary objective, that gold will not perform. Then, the cry will go up again, "Gold is dead! Gold does nothing! The ETF shares are stagnant! Dump gold!"
Allright, everyone here knows what I think. I MAY BE WRONG.
There is nothing to do but observe carefully.
And let all of us gather in more solid gold while it can be obtained for paper.
Good to hear from you, GratefulforGold, you are one smart lady!
Guano from the GAB
cyberbat (09/22/03; 21:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 109212)
all gold mined
All of the gold that has ever been mined in the whole world will only stand 3 feet high on a football field. Ever wonder why everyone wants a little? Because there is very little.
steady (09/22/03; 21:24:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 109211)
my math and how i got oh so close on my guess!
387.9 first nuber is 3, the second two numbers 87 or 8+7=15 which is the 3rd multiple of 5 so now we have two threes. the last number 9 is the 3rd multiple of 3 so 3 3s (3 is good luck in asia) add them together and u get 9 pure> thats how i came to my guess of the pog price!
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 21:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 109210)
Paper Avalanche @ msg. #109205
Here I am, an uninvited intruder again :>)
Phew! My brain is tired and I struggled to understand what you were saying. You were clear, I think. My brain fuzzed.
So, a global shifting of the world reserve currency is underway. But, rest assured that in several decades, the world will deal with the next reserve currency manufacturer who abuses that privilege by introducing "new" gold markets to re-price the value of gold when that world reserve currency gets waaaaay too out of line? Sorry, think I'll be dead by then. Or is it that the ETFs will help "soften" the landing of the plunging US$ for certain participants...yet, all the while, China is smart and will be accumulating all the PHYSICAL gold it can manage? I guess I didn't comprehend, after all.
Maybe I'm selfish. I care about my life and my loved ones. I care about sounding the alarm to any American or world citizen who has ears to hear that our world governments are in a huge struggle of currency manipulation/devaluation/ debasement and GOLD (and silver) is probably the only viable option. To me, it's that damn simple.
Is it merely a matter of paper dictating/not dictating the PRICE of physical gold...or maybe more a matter of the prudence of holding physical rather than paper? Yes, maybe if I were absolutely trapped in paper (currency/stock market 401(k)s/bonds, etc.) I would have an interest in ETFs. Maybe if I were a banker/broker I would have an enormous interest in ETFs. But, thankfully, I am just a simple person who has chosen to take a stance. I no longer trust our world leaders. I no longer trust my resources locked away in some banker or broker's computer. I trust myself. For better or worse, I put my meager resources on the line in line with my beliefs. No debt, no margins.
Am I saying that everyone should do the same? Well, that's a nice fantasy for me. But I would be content to think that every thinking person has garnered some personal safety and security for themselves and their loved ones by quietly accumulating some PHYSICAL protection!
Thank you for letting me barge in on your conversation. I'll head to bed now.
Lady GFG
Yukon (09/22/03; 20:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109209)
WGC postings on USAGold
Sir MK;
I respectfully 2nd Lady GFG's request to move the WGC posting below the Gold Trail. (Unless of course they help "nourish these pages" in one form or another). For the "average" investor (and I know that would be virtually impossible to quantify), the Gold Trail, IMO, would be much more applicable and proper toward gaining understanding of the world and markets by providing reason and logic for the lessons contained therein. Thanks for your consideration.
Yukon
Yukon (09/22/03; 20:28:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109208)
Gold on CNBC
Thanks for the great posts on the gold ETF to lady GFG, PA and GAB. Lady GFG, I could not help but agree with all your points except one (which I am currently seriously thinking about changing). That is, stop participating in the retirement plan of the company you work for and invest that money in physical PM's. At present I like the idea of that money growing tax free until retirement (so off the bat you you are making a nice return on the money), coupled with the fact that my company provides MATCHING CONTRIBUTIONS up to a certain percentage of dollars contributed. This is FREE MONEY and is unavailable to those who do not participate and contribute a minimum (2% at my company) into the retirement program! So, what I do to gain the best of both worlds is to contribute the minimum and then make purchases with extra take home pay monthly.
It will be interesting to see how this gold ETF unfolds and how it performs relative to the world market prices of bullion. Keep up the great ideas and thoughts!
For anyone interested, tomorrow at 5pm EST, CNBC's Business Center programe will be featuring a segment on gold (happen to catch it while watching commodity prices ticker). Should be interesting to see if the gold ETF is mentioned, plus what forms of gold they recommend for exposure to this market. (My guess is mining shares with comex futures and options second and ? ETF. No mention of physical guaranteed! So buyers of paper, BEWARE!
Viva Liberty!
Yukon
Dollar Bill (09/22/03; 20:09:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109207)
*>*............+
I must admit to drumming my fingers waiting for
the Duke, M.Kosares, Gold commentary after the Dubai event.
I have a guess what he might say....not trying to pressure you !
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 20:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 109206)
R Powell @ msg. #109202
I hope you don't mind my intruding in your conversations with GAB regarding ETFs.
You said "The majority of those invested in stocks, bonds or other vehicles - indeed the huge, vast majority- do not manage their own investments and have no say in where those monies are invested. Most have no more choice other than to check high risk, medium risk or low risk which merely places them in growth funds, blue chips or bonds."
Good point. My question is:
Do we know what Funds will buy these "gold" ETFs? Since MOST Funds (401(k)) don't offer the opportunity to buy ANY PM stocks, is there some change that has happened that they are going to jump on the "gold" ETF bandwagon and be able to buy? If so, then I guess I agree that it's better than nothing!
You said "I will agree that most are not knowledgeable, interested or willing to do the work necessary to manage their own retirement funds. Most are blissfully ignorant. If they lose, it may be their own fault? Maybe, but that's not the issue."
My second question is more a comment.
WHEN will PERSONAL responsibility ever become "an issue??" The longer the American public is allowed to remain in this impersonal bliss of government (or 401(k)s in this instance) being the great benefactor and the investor/dumbo worker only being responsible for automatically putting his percentage in every week with absolutely NO understanding of what he is doing -- the longer this continues the greater the peril! So, since I consider PHYSICAL gold ownership to be one of the ultimate expressions of personal responsibility and salute every step individuals take in this direction...I cannot help but see ETFs as a derailment of that goal. Yes, it will garner some of the stock market action...but it will not lead citizens to responsibility, awareness or protection, IMO!
My advice to the 401(k)ers who are stuck with that investment vehicle...STOP contributing to your 401(k) and use that money to buy PHYSICAL gold and silver! (OK, not investment advice, just my opinion....).
Lady GFG
Paper Avalanche (09/22/03; 19:36:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 109205)
@ GAB
Greetings! I enjoy our continual debate over this issue. You mentioned the following...
"The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper."
I do agree entirely that the ETF is a means by which to divert paper dollars from ever truly being converted into physical gold. On that issue I believe we both agree (please correct me if I am mistaken).
Where I believe differently from you is with respect to the ability of the ETF to effectively control the "price" of gold given the new monetary paradigm of gold assuming the roll of ultimate international currency after the dollar had its five decades in the sun. To that end, I would respectfully submit that your assumption of a continuation of the paper suppression mechanism that we all grew up with over the last few decades will be perpetuated by the ETF. Here is where I break from your argument. I believe that in order for paper to effectively manage the price of gold, the the world reserve currency must obviously be pure fiat. In order for there to be a true fiat reserve currency within the international banking system the majority of the world governments must agree to allow a single country the privilege of producing said reserve currency. When the political will is gone (as predicted by those on the trail) to tolerate the inevitable abuses that the populus of the reserve currency country will bring upon themslves (i.e. spending themselves into perpetual debt since the rest of the world accepts that which they are able to create out of thin air in exchnage for goods and services) those various countries who should oppose such a concentration of power to continue will intentionally create other price discovery mechanisms (i.e. Dubai and Shanghai exchanges) so as to reveal the true value of the currency being issued by said reserve currency country. Given that said reserve currency country has, heretofore, also controlled the price discovery mechanisms to date (i.e. Comex) there was never any fear of allowing the true ratio of specie to paper promises to be compared. Once said reserve currency country realized that it's paper money would be revalued within world markets without the prior controls that it had at its disposal to suppress to monetary realignments, it became apparent to the politicos running the country that a vehicle would need to be provided to allow their constituents to particpate in the impending devaluation of the previous reserve currency.
The ETF, in my opinion, is an impossible instrument to control the dethroning of the dollar as the reserve curency in international banking. It is my opinion that the ETF will not be able to offset the physical demand that China, among other significant physical markets, will create by having liberalized its physical gold markets. While I certainly agree that paper has and continues suppress the true value of gold, I further believe that in order for paper to do so going forward that there has to be both the political will and and the continued hegemony for the reserve currency within international banking. Both, IMO, have evaporated in the last 24 months.
I may be wrong.
PA
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 19:35:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 109204)
MK, Towncrier et al.
I am grateful for your providing this site!
I just went to your home page to see if you provided charts (sorry to say, I come directly to this Forum and don't usually go to your home page). But, I just went there to see if you provided gold and silver charts (because I was fascinated in the "war" over silver that went on before the NY markets opened today). It's been a long time since I've seen silver be so volatile! Usually, it's flatlined.
Anyway, to the point -- After my ragging the WGC so much, I noticed that on your home page "The Week in Gold" from, ahem, the World Gold Council is the FIRST of your listed "Team USAGOLD" Regular Contributors!
Is this a contractual obligation? If not, may I respectfully request that their "contributions" be moved lower (off the page works for me....). Well, at least AFTER The Gold Trail?
If this request is ridiculous or impossible, I understand.
TIA!
Lady GFG
R Powell (09/22/03; 19:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 109203)
Gold indicators // Gandalf
If I counted correctly, Gandalf, there were 23 price guesses higher than the winner and 51 lower than the Lady's correct guess.
This is unusual isn't it? Aren't we usually overly optimistic? What, O great sage, does this mean? Is this an omen?
R Powell (09/22/03; 19:23:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 109202)
ETFs for gold
Great Albino Bat, in the interest of balance I'll respectfully disagree with your assessment of ETFs for precious metals. Any window of opportunity for gold investment is better than none whatsoever for those who are locked into stocks only retirement funds.
The majority of those invested in stocks, bonds or other vehicles - indeed the huge, vast majority- do not manage their own investments and have no say in where those monies are invested. Most have no more choice other than to check high risk, medium risk or low risk which merely places them in growth funds, blue chips or bonds.
I will agree that most are not knowledgeable, interested or willing to do the work necessary to manage their own retirement funds. Most are blissfully ignorant. If they lose, it may be their own fault? Maybe, but that's not the issue. The issue is gold related funds that trade like stocks and ARE therefore an available vehicle for fund managers who, because they limited to stocks (most further limited to the long side of stocks, which to me, seems like playing basketball with one arm against guys with two) have had, until now, NO means of gold investment!
Yes, yes, yes, yes...I know all about the benefits of physical ownership. I have no quarrel here, I agree entirely, BUT, how many people and how much retirement money CAN NOT invest in physical and can only NOW through ETFs invest in precious metals at all???
Is/will this be a good development for gold. Imho, it will be excellent. It will provide exposure to a vast number who otherwise have had absolutely no interest whatsoever before. Is it a paper investment? What organizational retirement fund isn't? Would this investment money be better in land, tangibles, physical gold, and controled directly by each investor? Again, the reality of the situation prohibits this for many. Most of these many do not want to be bothered (and could not) manage it even if they were given the opportunity. ETFs are not perfect but better than the absolute nothing that existed before.
Actually, my own position is physical and highly leveraged derivatives but I do not recommend these as most investors in this market go broke real fast, even faster than the government can devalue your retirement funds!
Thoughts?
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 19:15:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 109201)
Druid @ msg. #109195 -- Again, World Gold Council
I just saw your post and I am not sure I comprehended your point. So, the WGC is aligned with the big, global players? Surprise, surprise. What did I miss? I guess I need more specific infrastructure alignment.
Going back to my rant of a couple of days ago...maybe I have totally misunderstood the WGC's "purpose." If their "purpose" is to promote gold, then they've sorrily (is that a word? I love to coin new words) missed the boat! That, amongst other things, was a pretty big clue to me about who is buttering their bread. The saavy WGC jumps from its old marketing ploy of "gold as jewelry" to the new, improved (but...wait... there's more!!) ploy of the ETF. Huh?
Seems that somewhere along the line, some marketing whiz kid at the WGC could have come up with something like, "Hey, guys...why don't we tell them that GOLD IS AN INVESTMENT? Like, you know, they could buy GOLD COINS and BULLION to protect their wealth!" But, if he/she did, it probably deteriorated to "I dunno, guys...wha'daya think? No? Jeez, this gold stuff is crap...we'd better get it linked to some paper trades if we're ever gonna make it work!"
Ah, Mr. CALPERS arrived in the nick of time....
JMJO (just my jaded opinion)
Lady GFG
Dollar Bill (09/22/03; 19:06:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 109200)
">"
The tippity top?
"..The Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase application index jumped to the sixth highest level on record. The Purchase index has now increased 15% in the past three weeks to 21% above the year ago level. By dollar volume, Purchase applications were up 32.6% from a year earlier. The average Purchase loan amount was $199,800. On the other hand, Refi applications were down 60% from the elevated level of one year ago.
September 19 – Los Angeles Times: "A slew of fence sitters jumped into Southern California's housing market last month, boosting home sales and price increases to their highest levels in more than 14 years. The August median price for homes sold in the six-county region, from Ventura to San Diego, rose 22% from a year earlier to $338,000, according to DataQuick… The year-over-year gain was the strongest since May 1989, when the median price of new and existing houses and condominiums was $176,000. San Bernardino County, the Southland's most affordable area, saw the largest price increase last month, jumping 29% to $207,000. The median price of all homes sold in Los Angeles County in August was $338,000 — up 27% from a year earlier. Sales overall for the Southland also hit their highest monthly count since the late 1980s, with 34,437 properties changing hands in August, 12% more than a year earlier... the number of homes sold in Orange County last month — 5,511 — was the highest of any month since July 1988… The effect of higher interest rates was apparent last month in expensive Orange County, where nearly half of all buyers used ARMs to purchase their homes. That compares with 38% in July and 29% a year ago."
GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 18:57:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109199)
GAB @ msg. #109187 -- World Gold Council
Amen, soul-bro!
The WGC has bothered me ever since I began my relatively short (compared to most of you here) "career" in studying the Precious Metals! I think I "ranted" about the WGC here a couple of days ago....
A big red flag went up when they chose the former CALPERS guy to be their new honcho. Yes, I can see a pension fund paper pusher being a true gold advocate, yes sir!
What I don't understand is WHY the gold mining companies give ANY support to this cabal-infested organization! Are they (the mining companies) truly so beaten down that they are grateful for any bones thrown their way -- even toxic ones? Or are they so shortsighted that they will just go along with the US-induced view of quick money?
I just don't get it. (Well, I do...but I just DON'T LIKE IT!!).
Lady GFG
Carl H (09/22/03; 18:51:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 109198)
SEC Quizzing NYSE Specialists
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=5&u=/nm/20030922/bs_nm/financial_nyse_sec_dc
--- Begin Snip ---
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal regulators have begun interviewing individual specialists on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (news - web sites) about an investigation of possible illegal trading, amid a leadership vacuum at the Big Board.
--- End Snip ---
And this is supposed to surprise me? It is beyond me why the NYSE specialized even exist.
Got physical gold?
Druid (09/22/03; 18:47:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 109197)
Gold is the Cure for the Job-Drain
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2003/0922.html
De-Industrialization of America
The true story of the de-industrialization of America has never been told. It started with the U.S. Treasury defaulting on its gold obligation to foreigners in 1971, thereby foisting a regime of irredeemable currency upon the world. An unanticipated side-effect was the setting of the rate of interest adrift. It then started its wild roller-coaster ride, first up well into double digits by 1981, then down to zero, a move that twenty years later is still in progress. Greenspan takes credit for the low rates as a measure of his success in "licking inflation". The claim is an empty one. The credit belongs to bond speculators, the big money-center banks among them, that have got away with obscene profits on their bond holdings and long positions in the derivatives markets. It is too early to say that the plunge of interest rates is over. There is more dough still where these profits have come from.
At whose expense are those obscene profits made? Why, at the expense of the producers and laborers, naturally. Economists have missed the curious coincidence that pari passu with the unprecedented swings in interest rates America is being de-industrialized. Of course, they noticed the migration of industrial jobs from America to Asia. But they blamed it on the sweatshops in China and India. However, Asian wage rates had been lower for the entire period of modern age, causing no migration of jobs as long as industrialized countries adhered to the gold standard. The difference in wage rates in itself does not establish a cause for the job-drain.
Druid: Hard hitting analysis and commentary.
glennh10 (09/22/03; 18:45:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109196)
The Royal Canadian Mint no longer lists prices in U.S. dollars
This is from Coin World magazine, 9/29/03. It looks like Treasury Sec'y Snow's "strong dollar" is no longer so reliable.
Interestingly, the RCM made this pricing change before the latest bombshell from the recent G7 meeting about floating the "currencies", and discouraging artificial propping up of the dollar. That's the way news items relating to the money come about: after the fact. By the time it's in the mainstream press, it already happened. The "almighty" dollar's looking for another resting place, one that's a bit less "almighty". The times they are a'changin.
Druid (09/22/03; 18:33:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109195)
Great Albino Bat (09/22/03; 16:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109187)
Druid: Bat, pardon me for interjecting, I agree with your assessment regarding the paper play, however, here is where things could get very interesting if we are to follow in the footsteps of giants. The initial play will be for paper then, the "lions" will start bidding for bullion thereby separating the price for both items like a space shuttle aircraft leaving its boosters. If in fact the BIS and various other "giants" have been directing bullion where needed, then the infrastructure for the next paradigm shift is pretty much in place and all that one would seem to need to get the party started is, proper justification.
Smeagol (09/22/03; 18:28:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 109194)
...and one 'Tonne' of It
iss 37.267 centi-meters on a sside, or 14.67 inches, and at 400 dollars/Ounce iss worth 12,860,400 dollars. A concentrated wealth, indeed, worthy of Dragons. Let uss see tricksy Baggins put THAT in its pocketses!!
S.
Smeagol (09/22/03; 17:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109193)
If It wass divided up...
Thanks, O graciouss Crier (bow), for your swift answer and many facts. The reason Smeagol asks, he wonders if all of It (about 4,500,000,000 Ounces) wass divided up among the (about 6,300,000,000) peoples of the Earth, jusst how much each would have. It comess to 0.715 Ounces per persson. This issn't very much!!! If anyone reading this has jusst ONE ounce of It, then we thinks even 'they of ssmall worth' are ahead of the game, yes.
misetich (09/22/03; 17:11:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 109192)
Global: Breakthrough - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030922-mon.html#anchor0
Snip:
An unbalanced global economy has finally come to its senses. At the just-concluded G-7 meetings in Dubai, the world's major industrial economies have endorsed the basic premise of global rebalancing -- a long overdue adjustment in the dollar.
........................
History tells us that the US dollar has only just begun its downward descent. On a broad trade-weighted basis, the dollar (in real terms) has fallen about 8% from its early 2001 highs. In a full-blown current account adjustment, a drop of around three times that magnitude can be expected -- not all that different than the 30% real deprecation of the dollar that occurred in the late 1980s when the current-account disequilibrium was far less acute. In the end, a lopsided world has no choice other than to accede to a weaker dollar.
*********************
Misetich
Central Bankers have been meddling (sp. Japan)and not allowing the US $ to find its resting place.
At last the noose has been tightened a little more ...
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
TownCrier (09/22/03; 17:10:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 109191)
Gold specs for Smeagol
World above-ground gold is in the ballpark of 140,000 tonnes.
There are one million (1,000,000) grams in each of these tonnes.
There are 31.103 grams in each troy ounce.
From that you can arrive just about anywhere you need to go.
Hence, 32,151 troy ounces per tonnes.
Hence, theoretically, less than one ounce of gold could be gathered up for every living man, woman, and child on earth today.
It leads us to wonder how many people here have ensured themselves to be wealthier than the average in such a reckoning where wealth is measured in tangibles rather than paper? Some may be the next Warren Buffet and not even realize it yet.
R.
Smeagol (09/22/03; 16:48:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 109190)
Wishes USAGOLD a Happy Fifth
birthday, yess, we does, and from the looks of things it is a exciting one, eh? We wishes Congratulations to the Contesst winners! (clap clap clap).
...
Hmmm. Smeagol iss curious, always. Doess anyone know how much of It is above ground, the total amount of It accounted for? And pardon Smeagol, we doesn't mean to ssound sstupid, but how many Ounces of It are there in a 'Tonne'? There's different kinds of tons (not that we could affords that much, ha ha!)
S.
Great Albino Bat (09/22/03; 16:43:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109189)
Allow me to repeat once again:
The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper.
GAB
Great Albino Bat (09/22/03; 16:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 109188)
Allow me to repeat once again:
The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper.
GAB
Great Albino Bat (09/22/03; 16:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109187)
Paper Avalanche: more PAPER GOLD IS ALL I SEE.....
in the new ETF to be launched under the auspices of World Gold Council, a "Council" which has never been part of the solution, and always part of the problem of gold's repression by TPTB.
You state: "In 30 days the ETF will be trading on the LSE and NYSE. This will "broaden" the appeal of gold by allowing the average stock market investor to get into the game."
Apparently you think the WGC has had a change of heart, has seen the light, and is now all-out pro-gold. I'll believe it when I see it.
For now, as far as I'm concerned all this "broadening of appeal" is not for GOLD, but for substitutes for gold. The same-old, same-old. The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper. Will we never learn? No, never.
Sceptical guano from the GAB.
Paper Avalanche (09/22/03; 16:39:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 109186)
@ glennh10
I beleive that you will begin to see more and more pro-gold / pro-silver articles in the MAINSTREAM media in the next few months.
What if someone threw an ETF party and nobody showed up?
PA
glennh10 (09/22/03; 16:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 109185)
Coeur d'Alene sees silver at $5.75 per ounce this year
http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3488606&newsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets
And, according to the article, gold expected to reach $400 (by year's end). The article mentions silver's increased industrial uses as a factor, adding the world financial uncertainty as a factor for gold. They might also add the ridiculous short and leasing positions for both metals.
Waverider (09/22/03; 15:30:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109184)
TownCrier
Randy - that graph is one BEAUTIFUL site to behold!! It is a near perfect symmetrical triangle - VERY BULLISH for Spot! If one takes the following points for the top line of the triangle - Jan -Feb $388.00, May-June $375.00 and July-August $368.00, and the following points for the lower line of the triangle - March-April $320.00 and July-August $340.00, the Breakout point for Spot occured around $365.00. The price target is determined by measuring the base of the triangle and adding it to the breakout point. I calculate the base to be around $80.00...add this to the breakout of $365.00 for a price target of $445.00. Whooeee....let's see if TA REALLY works! Cheers,
Waverider
TownCrier (09/22/03; 14:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 109183)
Gold dutifully powering higher
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html
see url for latest year-long price graph
R.
Cytek (09/22/03; 14:47:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 109182)
Time to pay up Commercials - Sinclair
I told you this morning that the longs had a gold trading strategy and you witnessed it unfold. The primary seller after some covering was Morgan which sold a considerable amount of gold into a bag held out by what was interpreted as non-US buying.
The shorts are trying to cover under the cover of a willingness to sell. Actually a neat strategy, if I say so myself, but totally transparent to a 44 year veteran trader like myself.
Nice try by the short of gold men/women who are attempting to make cover. I would say that $418 is closer than Barclay's thinks. I love the Reuters article regarding Barclay's research statement that pointed out the long COT but somehow forgot to mention the short COT of over 20,000,000 ounces of gold.
With gold up $5.50, now the bill to COT commercial gold traders at the close of the Comex was over $100,000,000.00 real green US dollars which must be paid before the opening of Comex tomorrow.
That $100,000,000.00 in real dollar bills will be credited to the accounts of the non-professional gold traders, the long position holders who are supposed to be stupid. Now who is stupid, the payer or the paid?
Gold is looking like it wants to vault to $400 this week at least. The shorts are covering so look for their activity in the Asian and European markets in the a.m. tomorrow I will not be sleeping tonight my dear short of gold men/women and will greet you on the font lines.
misetich (09/22/03; 14:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109181)
Treasury Snow Auditioning for Dave Letteman
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1064251320000
Snip:
"There is no change in the strong dollar policy," Snow told a small
group of reporters at the annual meetings of the International Monetary
Fund and World Bank
**************
Misetich
Couldn't resist it - (Snow's audience was indicated as being "small") His clown ratings are soon to skyrocket as the US $ continues its descend and loses 20-30% vs Euro, Yen, Gold
Is Snow impersonating Iraq's Information Minister "Mohammed Saeed Al-Sahaf"?
Snow's resume reads almost equal to Al-Sahaf
"Supply official information to newsmedia in a way that accentuates the positive. Demonstrate ability to completely ignore the facts while spewing inaccuracies in a way that particularly appeals to his country's citizens"
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
TownCrier (09/22/03; 14:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109180)
Two headlines and the losing of official credibility
HEADLINE - No change to U.S. strong-dollar policy, Snow says
12:58 pm - Reuters
HEADLINE - Strong dollar policy laid to rest by G7 language shift
2:05 pm - Reuters
From the first article:
DUBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Monday brushed off questions about sharp currency swings after a weekend Group of Seven meeting and insisted no change had been made in U.S. dollar policy.
The dollar weakened to near three-year lows against Japan's yen on Monday ... the U.S. currency also weakened against the euro, Swiss franc and pound sterling.
Some currency dealers interpreted Saturday's G7 statement as the final abandonment of a previous Washington position that a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest.
Asked about that view, Snow replied: "There's no change in the strong-dollar policy."
---------
Randy's note: Now, in all fairness to the SecTreas on the mincing of words, he did elaborate as such:
------------------"What you want to be strong is (that) you want people to have confidence in your currency, you want them to see a currency as a good medium of exchange. You want the currency to be a good store of value. You want it to be something people are willing to hold. You want it to be hard to counterfeit....those are the qualities," Snow said then. The dollar's value, he said, "represents the fundamentals of the demand and supply for currencies".-----------------
However, on the face of it, the "strong dollar" soundbites undermine whatever credibility the office might have claim to.
The second article has this to say:
NEW YORK/CHICAGO, Sept 22 (Reuters) - If currency traders were in any doubt that the "strong dollar policy" might still be showing some signs of life, the Group of Seven's ground-breaking communique on currencies has finally laid it to rest, U.S.-based traders said on Monday.
"For a long time, the United States has been moving away from a strong dollar policy. This (the G7 statement) is definitely another nail in the coffin," said Lara Rhame, senior economist with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.
...dealers are highly skeptical by this stage, especially in light of the extent of dollar weakness since the G7 statement over the weekend. On Monday, the dollar shed nearly 2 percent against the yen and 1 percent against the Swiss franc.
"Obviously most people are reading between the lines. That's something he has to say," said one New York-based currency trader. Snow is paying lip service to the dollar in defense of the U.S. bond market, which would suffer if Washington formally abandoned the strong dollar policy...
-----------
Call Centennial and discuss a gold diversification strategy that's right for your individual portfolio needs.
R.
Paper Avalanche (09/22/03; 14:15:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109179)
A thought on this afternoon's gold market report....
The following was mentioned in the report with respect to the impending rally in gold:
"With the uptrend accelerating, the risk is the rally happens sooner rather than later, i.e. before the end of the year," he said. "The statistics are stunning," wrote Matt Schwab, Barclays' head of precious metal trading. "... However, the narrow base on which gold's strong recent price performance has been built suggest that the market will struggle to move much higher unless gold's appeal as an alternative investment can be BROADENED (my emphasis)."
In 30 days the ETF will be trading on the LSE and NYSE. This will "broaden" the appeal of gold by allowing the average stock market investor to get into the game.
Food for thought.
PA
R Powell (09/22/03; 14:01:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 109178)
Only 5% ?
Randy (post 109169), only 5%? Others may advise only 5% but that's not enough now, is it. All that hard to understand economic esoteric "stuff" (description of us from other forums) that has been hashed over these past years seems to be REALLY happening. Remember when $2 was a big day for POG and we wondered if we'd ever see POG struggle through the $300. level? Hells-bells man, how about 25% physical anyway and perhaps also some in some of those gold derivative paper assets just for the paper gains?
Paper, Rich!!!! Okay, didn't mean to upset you, make it 50% physical then, okay? This isn't your fathers gold market, it's not just wealth preservation anymore, it's an investment homerun.
To all Contest winners....CONGRATS !!!!
Federal_Reserves (09/22/03; 13:37:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 109177)
The last bagholders
are the rich, holding overvalued debt backed US stocks, they piled in like greedy pigs at the trough after the tax, visions of tax free dividends and low capital gains taxes dancing in their heads; but the stocks are in the hands of less than 10% of the people, its highly margined (new record) and the mutual funds have less than 5% cash on hand to buy more, once they realize they have no sheeple left to unload upon, its gonna collapse in a international bonfire of vanity.
Boilermaker (09/22/03; 13:34:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109176)
Waverider Congrats
What a great gold day and there could not have been a more deserving winner. Congratulations!!!
Boilermaker
Waverider (09/22/03; 13:23:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109175)
USAGOLD
Thank you All for the GREAT price guessing contest...what a ride on the WILD side today!! My, my Sir Gandalf...you REALLY know how to give a Goldbugette a heart attack!! I had to catch my breathe when you posted the winners! I'm not usually at a loss for words, but oh my....thank you Sir MK for the opportunity to join in the fun and thanks Sir Gandalf for making it so much fun!! I think that I shall have to refrain from these competitions for awhile and give my coronaries a rest! :))
Waverider
USAGOLD Daily Market Report (09/22/03; 13:11:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 109174)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.
If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.
BTW, Congrats to the price guess winners!
Ananse (09/22/03; 12:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109173)
Ooops- Corrections
www.seedsavers.org
Thanks, Grateful for Gold, for catching the typo. The correct link is reposted above. Also, "upon" should have been deleted from the body of the post.
Congratulations to Waverider! An exciting day.
TownCrier (09/22/03; 12:38:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109172)
Congratulations to the winners
Looks like "free gold" is finally making inroads...
;-)
What other company goes so far to treat you so well on good faith? Please show your support by choosing to do business with Centennial Precious Metals for all your metal investment needs. They are friendly and are here to help you!
toll free (800) 869-5115
TownCrier (09/22/03; 12:24:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109171)
Don't miss yesterday's Russian news on gold AND oil
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2120039/default.html
click url for yesterday's archive and scroll down to read this posted article:
TownCrier (9/21/03; 12:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 109120)
Russian CB speaks -- of gold AND oil
Gandalf the White (09/22/03; 12:23:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 109170)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
WOWSERS --- We have WINNERS !!! That was last minute VOLATILITY !!!
Lady Waverider wins the GOLD 1/2 ounce US Eagle
and
Sir's Runner and 401 each get a Gold British Sovereign !!!
==
$$$$ $388.5 $$$$ Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568
$$$$ $388.2 $$$$ Waverider (9/20/03; 17:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109062
$$$$ $388.1 $$$$ 401 (9/21/03; 11:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109115)-
====
Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) 9/22/03
Open $387.0 HIGH $389.1 low $384.0 Last $388.5
SETTLEMENT $388.3 Change +$5.4 Volume 49,167
Yesterday's Open Interest = 205,590
===
Will each of the three GOLDEN WINNERS provide Lady Marie (email at marie@usagold.com) their real NAMES and mailing address for shipment of the PRECIOUS !
<;-)
TownCrier (09/22/03; 12:18:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 109169)
WGC's London view of gold
http://www.gold.org/
excerpts today:
Gold built up a head of steam on Friday in New York. The market had been quiet but solid in London in the morning, and New York opened on a positive note, with the market continuing to talk about the possibility of a weekend statement from the IMF meeting over the outlook for the renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement. Early in the session the price was subject to the vagaries of the currency markets which meant that there was a short-lived move downwards not long after the opening, but this was well met, with fund-led buying activity increasing over the course of the day and driving prices to a high of almost $384/ounce before some selling emerged to take the froth off the market.
Comments did come from the IMF meeting that confirmed that central banks will get together to discuss renewing the Central Bank Gold Agreement, but was not an actual renewal announcement. The governor of the Dutch central bank, Nout Wellink, said that "we had a brief discussion on gold… We will come back to this issue at the beginning of next year… Don't expect a fundamental change in the approach of the central banks… We will be transparent again, there will be no fundamental break in our approach".
Market opinion had been divided on the approach to the meeting about whether there would be a fully-fledged statement and a number of observers had suggested that this September was too soon for a firm deal to be reached, given that the current Agreement does not expire until next September. The comments that were made, therefore, were taken positively and were then compounded by a statement from the G-7 financial summit that made a strong call for more flexible exchange rates and this put pressure on the dollar. Gold ran up towards $388/ounce in Asian hours as the dollar slumped, before opening in London at just above $385/ounce.
...The G-7 communiqué did not mention any specific currencies, but market observers are suggesting that the aim is to weaken the dollar...
...The equity markets have reacted badly to the week-end's developments, with the Nikkei shedding 4.2% ....... Gold remains well bid in London, fixing this morning at $386.20/ounce.
...The Swiss bank Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch launched its "World Gold Expertise Fund" on August 7th and has said that the fund has already attracted over US$150M. The fund invests in four different managers who all focus on gold equities. The bank also recommends that investors, who should be seeking diversification in their portfolios, should be putting at least 5% of their investment into gold as a long-term hedge against risk.
-----------
A repeat for emphasis:
"...investors, who SHOULD BE seeking diversification in their portfolios, should be putting AT LEAST 5% of their investment into gold as a long-term hedge against risk."
R.
R Powell (09/22/03; 11:58:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109168)
Soybeans, currencies and a house for sale
Gondolin: my reference yesterday to soybeans was meant as a crude attempt at humor althought I do believe that soybeans along with almost all commodities will rise in dollar value as the relative strength of the dollar falls. This will make our beans more affordable to the Chinese and the rest of the world. Weather has hurt the yield on our bean crop and the Chinese have expanded their soybean crushing capacity (built plants). As the Wal-mart to the world, imho the Chinese will also be buying our cotton, even though the USDA is expecting only a 1% increase in cotton exports for 2003-2004. This is of course, NOT investment advice.
As for relating this to the POG, it comes under the category of currency exchange which will effect the price of all exports/imports. POG reacted immediately last night with the currencies! Treasury secretary Snow felt the need to reiterate today that the official policy is still a strong dollar policy. Do politicians ever tell less than the truth?
Art Cashin (analyst for CNBC) stated today that 46% of treasuries are (held) bought by foreign investors. He implied that if US debt becomes less desireable to these foreign buyers, then bond prices will fall. This sounds plausible, no? Is this the beginning of public awareness (at least to the bond market) that the USA can NOT indefinitely export its monetary inflation to sustain its consumption? Will we no longer be able to buy the world's goods for paper? If the world is full of exported dollars that are no longer happy to be exchanged for longer term debt, then what will become of them? Tangible assets, you say? Bigfloat also comes to mind.
To any foreign holders of large amounts of American currency, my house is for sale for enough of that depreciating paper !! Right now, one million will buy it! Don't delay, it may take two or more million soon!
Payment in gold and silver is also acceptable if that pile of paper FRNs is too much to transport. (:>
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (09/22/03; 11:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 109167)
Your source for bullion at just one percent over dealer cost; free shipping on 25oz.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
The only way you can beat this offer... is with a stick!
DryWasher (09/22/03; 11:30:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 109166)
Lady GratefulForGold (109136 & 109142) Gold v. Starvation.
You have a real talent for being able to express yourself and your views in a clear way that is understandable to all, and I always look forward to reading your posts. I find that in rereading both Roberts posts(109023 & 109077) and my own(109051) on the subject that we seemed to be talking past each other and not really understanding what the other was saying because we each had a different definition of the term "wealth". I was using the dictionary definition "A great quantity of money or valuable possessions." while Robert's definition excludes gold, money, and other non consumables from the definition of the term "wealth". When I reread his posts using his definition of wealth I have no disagreement with his statements. You express the point I failed to get across to Robert very well in your post 109142 to Dollar Bill when you wrote:
"Nope, I can't eat gold (or silver). But I betcha that someone who may have more than they can eat would surely trade me some of it for some of my gold or silver. Now, that's a far cry from the home that I'm planning on spending some of my gold on (in the future). But, it is a sterling example of the versatility and power of gold. If things deteriorate so much that buying my dream home with my gold goes by the wayside...that very gold will buy me some food (and much more). Pity, that the paper US$ will get lost in the shuffle...or the "avalanche" of paper that one of our knight's name predicts."
By the way, your very passionate rant on the subject of genetically engineered seeds certainly gives one food (genetically engineered?) for thought. (Smile, or maybe Groan)
Please let me add my name to the list of those encouraging you to post because you really do have a lot of value to add to this great forum.
Rimh (09/22/03; 10:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109165)
Nail Biter
This will be a tight race all the way to the close! I can see that my entry, although an optimistic guess for last Thursday, is slowly being left in the dust.
Just want to echo the thoughts of others in thanking our gracious host for the contest, but more so for the ongoing support of this superior forum for which I am much wiser and better educated. The posters here really are the best! Thank you MK, Randy, Gandalf and Black Blade for all your efforts and marvelous insights!
steady (09/22/03; 10:50:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109164)
74
approaching that magical 74 ceiling in the ratio trade!
Gandalf the White (09/22/03; 10:24:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 109163)
Progress REPORT !! <;-)
SO FAR TODAY --- The following NINETEEN (19) entrants have been (for at least a moment) the "KING of the HILL" ---
===
$$$$ $389.1 $$$$ Operative (09/19/03; 16:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 108970
$$$$ $388.9 $$$$ timbervision (9/20/03; 12:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109042
$$$$ $388.8 $$$$ Shanti (09/20/03; 03:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109003
$$$$ $388.5 $$$$ Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568
$$$$ $388.2 $$$$ Waverider (9/20/03; 17:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109062
$$$$ $388.1 $$$$ 401 (9/21/03; 11:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109115)-
$$$$ $387.9 $$$$ steady (09/17/03; 19:40:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108811
$$$$ $387.5 $$$$ Shermag (9/21/03; 08:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109097)
$$$$ $387.1 $$$$ Clink! (9/19/03; 14:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108954
$$$$ $386.7 $$$$ VanRip (9/19/03; 12:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108924
$$$$ $386.5 $$$$ Skydog (9/21/03; 10:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 109105)
$$$$ $386.2 $$$$ Joanne (9/19/03; 14:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108953
$$$$ $385.9 $$$$ Boilermaker (9/21/03; 08:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 109098
$$$$ $385.5 $$$$ Rimh (9/18/03; 11:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108857
$$$$ $385.2 $$$$ R Powell (9/20/03; 20:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 109069
$$$$ $384.8 $$$$ Goldendome (9/20/03; 19:21:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109067
$$$$ $384.6 $$$$ Yukon (9/20/03; 21:13:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109073
$$$$ $384.3 $$$$ Speedy (9/21/03; 07:12:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 109096
$$$$ $384.1 $$$$ Jing Zu (9/19/03; 12:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108921
===
Where the SETTLEMENT will end is the QUESTION !
<;-)
Knallgold (09/22/03; 09:52:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109162)
WA2
We heard out of Dubai that a a WA2 will be officially sometimes next year,probably with more Gold put on sale than the previous 400t/year.Maybe,this gives us a window for the big run?
Then,after Gold trades in the thousands,a Goldsale program not only would look smarter but could back a whole lot more debt!And I mean a real sale,not the WA1 style reshuffling within the CB system.Didn't FOA say after 5 years we will sell some of our Gold??
DoubleEagle (9/22/03; 07:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 109161)
Today's trade
Well, I had a nasty feeling that they were going to drive this down to within a buck of the Friday close. Perhaps I was being pessimistic.
Gondolin (9/22/03; 06:32:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109160)
Rich Powell 109127
Rich, off topic but your reference to Soya Beans was interesting. Many are touting this as the position to be in as China opens up and consumes more poultry, Soya being the staple diet for chickens. Chicken consumption in China is expected to skyrocket as wealth enters the country over the next 5 years. I'm not sure of the exact figures but currently the stats are something like 1 chicken per year consumed by each person, and this is expected to rise eventually to 1 per week then 2 per week which is similar to levels in the West. Is that the next goldmine and an exit strategy for investment once POG escalates and everyone wants to jump on board?
Gondolin (9/22/03; 06:26:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 109159)
Grateful for Gold 109121
Your sentiments following your post that caused you 'chagrin' are I am sure understood by all. But see how a debate which raised questions and thoughts followed on. That is the beauty of this site is that all can comment on anothers thoughts and look at each post from a different angle, and generally someone with a better understanding will provide the answer or insight that, as in my case, I am not normally able to fathom with my own limited understanding.
Boilermaker (9/22/03; 05:19:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 109158)
ESF all hands on deck
As BB reported, looks like a wild day for the markets. ESF boys will be busy plying their "stabilization" schemes. I never cease to be amazed that this is unknown to 99.99% of the population. The day of reckoning gets closer.
Boilermaker
Black Blade (9/22/03; 05:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 109157)
Ugly Day For Equities
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian and Euroland markets plummet in downward spiral. US equities futures look ugly too. I suspect US investment houses will be looking to prop up the futures prior to the open but so far it looks very "grim".
Meanwhile gold charging ahead by $6 and silver up 10 cents. The official word is that the WA was discussed briefly but word from some "unofficial" sources say that there will be little change and maybe some "very minor" incremental revisions. Whatever else was said is unknown. But the dollar is diving as the most G7 members are ganging up on Japan and their currency market intervention with threats that some members may themselves respond in kind to counter Japan.
Whatever happens nothing much can stop the precious metals now. There may be some pullbacks here and there biut the trend is still positive and sooner or later the shorts (commercials) will be throwing in the towell or will convince the dishonorable Comex and Tocom mangers to screw the small fry like before. Still this is a runaway train and te physical market looks to overwhelm the paper flood.
- Black Blade
WAC (Wide Awake Club) (09/22/03; 04:51:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 109156)
@Silvercollector - sounds like Iraq would be a 'solid' investment
LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Invisible Hand (09/22/03; 04:35:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 109155)
WA to be extended early next year
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/09/22/cnimf22.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2003/09/22/ixcity.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=99287
SNIP from the London Telegraph
Speculation mounted at the end of last week that an agreement would be brokered between central bankers on gold sales.
But Nout Wellink, governor of the Dutch Central Bank, said yesterday there had been a brief and informal discussion, and the subject would be dealt with more fully early next year.
The IHT runs gold article today
http://www.iht.com/articles/110678.html
No mention of WA or Dubai neither of derivatives
SNIP
But gold is a small market, compared with the trillions of dollars invested worldwide in stocks and bonds. That means even a relatively small shift can have a significant effect.
P.S. I'm confident I will win the price guessing contest today.
silvercollector (09/22/03; 04:02:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109154)
Oxymoron
From Headline News:
(first headline)
3 US soldiers killed in central Iraq attacks....
(followed by...)
Interim government declares Iraq open to investors....
(..sounds like Iraq would be a 'solid' investment )
:(
silvercollector (09/22/03; 03:49:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109153)
Wow, are we close!
Just peeking at spot on Feb. 5, 2003 (pre-war), looks like $388.80 or thereabouts is the number to beat.
Looks like spot almost touched 388 a few hours ago, looks like 389/390 are stiff resistance.
DummyANI (09/22/03; 02:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 109152)
Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:
Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754c plus0512 c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810c plus0056 c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nilc ..cnilc cc...376.9
Sep. 16 28,672c plus0862 c. 375.6
Sep. 17 32,011c plus3339c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971c.plus3566cc377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266c...382.9
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen
Elwood (09/22/03; 00:33:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109151)
TownCrier (9/21/03; 12:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 109120)
The previous Washington Agreement dealt with central bank selling. Perhaps the next one may have some buying in it?
The Russian statements are the first that I can recall that deal with central bank *buying*. Why would a modern day central banker spend good money on what has been widely said to be a stale asset? Who may be next? China?
DummyANI (09/22/03; 00:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 109150)
Nikkei225 ended down 463 point at JST:15.00. Sell a paper asset.
Nikkei225 ended down 463 point at JST:15.00. Sell a paper asset.
Nikkei225 ended down 463 point at JST:15.00. Sell a paper asset.
Volcano Mt. Comex-Gold will be erupted by oversupplied trush currencies.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
Gandalf the White (09/22/03; 00:14:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 109149)
Hold onto your SURFBOARD, Lady Waverider !!
SURF's UP !
SPARKS are showing in the Crystal Ball and many will be on the winning POG Contest number for at least a moment or two.
As Sir Black Blade says --- "Interesting" !!
<;-)
NoEyeSee(+_+) (09/22/03; 00:12:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 109148)
$440 as a reasonable target!
Since Gold close over $280 on Friday for the very first time! A break of this resistance (from $319 low) points to a target of $440. Don't miss the boat!
Sept. is a month for windows dressing, Oct is traditionally a "risky" month for stock (as well as gold funds). Therefore, within the coming 2 weeks, there will be OK!^_^ Forever goldbug!
Liberty Head (09/22/03; 00:01:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109147)
Thought Trail On Values
Fully conscious or otherwise, we each have our own collection of values.
Fully conscious or otherwise, our values influence our behavior.
The material forms we manifest are a reflection of our values.
The systems we use to conduct commerce also reflect the underlying values.
Those who place high value on integrity, individuality, reason and logic, will likely prefer gold and commodity based free-market systems, over fiat currencies and manipulated market systems.
Sometimes our values place us in an uncomfortable, minority position. Though the tides may be rising against us, we stay the course dictated by our values.
A great graphic of this minority position is found in the symbol of Yin-Yang.
There are two opposing hemispheres, each containing the seed of it's opposite.
The seed is a minority position within its hemisphere, however it's relevance is not minor.
This forum is a great place for us "seeds of the opposite" to congregate and nurture our fellow "seeds". The other hemisphere waits! J
Best Wishes
Waverider (09/22/03; 00:00:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109146)
Gandy
Yes....the US$ has fallen below the 50Day MA...we're witnessing free-fall - yes?! Spot is frisky tonight - up over $6.00 at the moment in Sydney - London opens in about one hour - thoughts on how Spot will react in London? Yes Sir Gandalf...you and Sir MK *know* how Spot 'n Spike just *love* these CONTESTS!!!
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
