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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/22/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Waverider
(03/22/03; 22:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100102)
Chartists keeping the faith for gold bulls
http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2003/03/23/business/markets/markets02.asp
Snip:
"Elliott stated that markets move up in five waves that are split into three upward thrusts and two corrective waves," says Roffey. "Once the fifth wave has ended, a larger correction than before will occur - but this corrective wave will eventually, after completion, become the first wave of a larger cycle." Roffey deduces that we have just completed the first significant correction at the end of the first upward leg in the gold market. Yes, the uptrend was broken but that does not mean the upside is over. On Elliott Wave analysis there is still a huge bull market to come in gold shares. Once the corrective wave is finished, the next upward thrust takes the index to well above the previous high. We have just completed wave two in the gold market. Waves three, four and five are still to come."
Mildenhall says several important global economic factors support the view that there is "significant upside" for the long-term gold price. The $500-billion US current account deficit is particularly worrying for the dollar but there is also a lack of confidence in the euro and the yen. Furthermore, the global bear market has made investors cautious about equity markets - even bonds seem more risky following the collapse of some large corporations." "I believe the rocket beneath the gold price will be lit when the realisation spreads that the US is in a debt hole and won't grow out of it quickly," he says.
Waverider: A good little article out of the South Africa Sunday Times discussing Elliot Wave theory and the Gold Bull market.
Wky_Woodsman
(03/22/03; 22:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 100101)
Re: AuBug 100090 321 gold
Congrats to Misetech posting msg nr 100000!
Read Harris article today too.
Harris has an interesting take on the U.S. invasion of Iraq constituting the end of international law. In other words, the U.S. walked away from international law embodied in the U.N. The will of the U.S. is to be accepted or suffer the consequences.
While walking the trail (seems like so long ago) it was pointed out that the price discovery mechanism for gold would undergo a dollar selling avalanche (use unwanted dollars to short gold). This price discovery mechanism would evidence a parting from physical gold prices/premiums.
Furthermore, it was pointed out that it would be the dollar faction that would first "walk away" and then the "euro faction" would have reason to sell no longer wanted/needed dollars.
Is Harris' analysis of the "walking away from international law" a signal that "walking away from big float" is also a possibility?
Is the separation of physical and paper POG upon us?
Wky
mikal
(03/22/03; 22:21:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 100100)
Economic implications and foreign affairs
http://www.lewrockwell.com/turin/turin28.html
A Soft, Easy Crash-Landing for the American Empire
by Alan Turin -Excerpts:
"One. Price inflation is how the marketplace penalizes states for playing monetary inflation games. Markets discount currencies based on their perceptions of what game central bankers are playing.
Two. There's no Soviet Union to frighten other states into cooperation with the US government.
Three. Europe and the US have interests and attitudes that are at variance and have no prospect of reconciling in the foreseeable future.
Four. Oil, except for Iraq's, is priced in US Dollars. International financial institutions [IMF, BIS, OECD] are Dollar dominated.
Five. The Dollar has lost against the Euro, gold and Swiss Franc by over 20% in the past 90 days.
Six. The Dollar needn't fall to zero via runaway inflation, to cause financial pain. Stock portfolios don't have to become worthless to hurt; they merely need to be worth less.
Seven. In Asia regarding Iraq: only Australia, Japan and South Korea are following a US lead. Regarding North Korea: only Australia.
Eight. Japan has a strong export regime, strong saving ethic, lower personal debt, but has suffered for over ten years a severe recession.
Nine. China and Japan have positive trade balance with the US and hold huge Dollar reserves.....
Not all central bankers move by prudence alone. Spite and resistance to the American empire could motivate states to sink the Dollar.
If for spite Libya, Iran and Indonesia sell their Dollars and price oil in Euros, the Dollar would fall in value. That would be a blow to the American empire.
Somewhere, West of Luzon.
Indonesia is an Islamic, oil exporting state whose domestic economy "just happened" to collapse upon following IMF advice. Seeing the IMF and most of the international monetary order as US run, they blame this collapse on the US. They blame the US for their former, corrupt dictator's regime. The war with Iraq has inflamed them. Indonesia is a prime candidate to shift oil sales from Dollars to Euros for spite and economics.
Japan, South Korea and China hold large Dollar reserves due to their positive trade balances with the US.
Japan is in desperate straits because its major market is the US: the very state that protects her security and trade routes. They consider Bush's handling of North Korea to be poor and the war with Iraq as reckless. Japan endorsed the invasion, not from conviction, but to induce US cooperation for regional issues.....
Right now the US has troops in South Korea and Okinawa. Both South Korea and Japan want them out.....
This move by South Korea is to shift a war's risks from them to the US. They want US forces out: they may calculate removal by North Korea acting as the Grim Reaper.
American military influence in Asia comes from the US Navy. Already the US has lost its' two main bases in the Philippines during the 1990's. Further removal from the Korean peninsula and Japan's Okinawa moves the US influence to Asia's periphery.
Any cooperative effort by Japan, Korea and China to jointly peg their currencies to gold or the Euro will signal a radical shrinkage of US influence in Asia. Objectively, this would end the Asiatic branch of the American empire.
Even assuming no resentment of American empire, these states may be forced to adjust their Dollar holdings to protect their central banks and domestic economies.
How reasonable is it to expect Asia to hold Dollars to shore up US diplomatic interests? To do so even to their financial disadvantage? It doesn't require all Asian states to dump the Dollar to have a profound, weakening effect on the Dollar.
China need only sequester, on a temporary basis, profits from American corporations the repatriation of their Dollars, to allow for an "adjustment" of the Yuan [and/or the Hong Kong Dollar] to "coordinate currency issues pending the Yuan's acceptance in the IMF."
This would convert US corporations into a lobby for a new Asian order or see their Asiatic assets nationalized by exchange controls. This would also split corporate America on a war with Iraq.
Such a subtle move would be worthy of Sun Tzu."
Daniel Druff
(03/22/03; 22:01:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 100099)
sector
Termination of Existing Deal
"Since Mexico is the logical official silver seller responsible for the depressed market price, I would wager that we will see in short order a termination of the existing silver commodities deal between Vincente Fox and the US." sector
Are you saying, President Fox will stop selling silver on the cheap to Kodak and Friends? If so, I'd think that silver prices are about to double, no? That's fine with me.
Thank you
Daniel Druff
(03/22/03; 21:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100098)
Good News From Iraq
ANOTHER day goes by without Sadam torturing one-single person.
Thank you
abudahhab
(03/22/03; 20:44:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 100097)
Extraordinary Popular Delusions
The ongoing Iraq campaign should be viewed upon as just another mania. The hyper-propaganda we are subject by our "free media" has obscured many fundamental issues. IMHO, the notion of a quick and total victory in Iraq is utter fantasy.
Iraq is a country of some 20 million. Basra has a population of over 2 million, Baghdad has over 5 million. The so-called "coalition' has perhaps 150,000 troops in the field whith the remaining 100,000 sitting in the rear as support.
Have we forgotten the lessons of Beirut? Just like in civil war Lebanon, you do not need a permit to buy a weapon in Iraq - there is no gun control of any sort. No doubt the Iraqi military have taken off their uniforms and melted away into the civilian population. Who are we fighting? The whole population?
How can a force of 10,000-15,000 troops effectively occupy Basra? What is the alternate strategy? Encirclement and mass starvation? What about Baghdad? How long will the international community allow this?
This whole operation is a unfolding disaster for the Bushies. The underlying permises of the operation are pure fantasy.
We are headed for a crash landing of epic proportions.
sector
(03/22/03; 20:22:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 100096)
Mexico announces plan to sell dollars
FT.COM [Full Text of article url shown below]
By John Authers in Mexico City
Published: March 21 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: March 21 2003 4:00
Mexico announced on Thursday that it would start to sell dollars in international markets, in its most concerted plan to do so since the devaluation it suffered during the "Tequila Crisis" of 1994.
The move had an immediate, sharp effect on the peso, which reversed the decline it saw on the night's news from Iraq and recovered to 10.85 against the dollar, having slipped from 10.88 to 10.95 at the opening.
The dollar sale will also be seen on the markets as a further signal of confidence by Mexico's fiscal and monetary authorities, following the bullish forecast this week by Francisco Gil Diaz, treasury secretary, that gross domestic product would grow by 3 per cent year on year during the first quarter.
Officials said the move was intended to allow an orderly reduction of its international reserves, which have been at record levels for some time and exceeded $50bn (?47bn, £32bn) for the first time this month.
The reserves, derived largely from export income generated by Petroleos Mexicanos, the national oil monopoly, were boosted by the current high oil price, and likely to grow by a further $7bn this year.
According to the treasury ministry, the reserves do not generate a strong return, so the net benefits of holding them have reduced.
Daily auctions, which will start on May 2, will follow pre-determined rules, limiting discretion to use the sales as part of monetary policy. The amount auctioned will be determined by a formula based on inflows.
However, the impact of the sales on the peso, which has been tightly correlated with the US dollar for the last year, may also have influenced the decision.
The peso had endured a depreciation of 25 per cent against the dollar since last April, falling from 9.01 to 11.23 to the dollar. Traders view the currency as a weak adjunct of the dollar and tend to sell it against the dollar in unison with selling the dollar against the euro. However, the peso has recovered in line with the dollar in the last two weeks.
A spokesman for the treasury ministry described the decision to start selling at this point as "a coincidence", adding: "We would have announced the same measure now, whether the peso was at nine, 10 or 11 to the dollar."
+++++++++++++++
There can be no doubt as to the timing of this Iraq War retaliatory Mexican action. It joined numerous other announcements that apprea to be aimed at the Bush administration. For example the decision to add a second nuclear reactor from Russia to Iran's budding nuclear facilities and the Russian announcement to suspend mutual nuclear discussions with the US.
Since Mexico is the logical official silver seller responsible for the depressed market price, I would wager that we will see in short order a termination of the existing silver commodities deal between Vincente Fox and the US.
The "coalition of the willing" may get a rude awakening when the world begins to flex its muscles.
Then we have the ever-diplomatic North Koreans...It's been Pin-Drop quiet lately.
Paper Avalanche
(03/22/03; 19:57:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 100095)
@ Leigh
Any assertion that the US will roll out a new currency this coming Thursday is pure speculation and "putting the pieces together" on my part. I have no specific information that supports this. However, I make this reasoned assumption based on the following:
1. The war in Iraq provides sufficent distraction to make such a move that would otherwise cause significant political backlash.
2. If the US wanted to counter the euro, it would need to a) control the primary oil reserves to ensure that said oil is not priced in euros (as is now being done vis a vis the occupation of Iraq) and b) have the same gold cover characteristics as the euro. If both of these are in place why would China and the rest of the world opt for the euro in place of the US$ when the EMU does not have a standing army and the US has the most powerful military force that this world has ever seen.
3. There have been no pictures of the new pink dollars. This implies, to me at least, that the obligations of the note are different than the "full faith and credit" verbage found on the current FRN.
4. Central banks around the world are dumping FRN's.
5. As an extension of point #2, the new US$ will have a similar appearance (colored) as the euro. This will provide additional competiveness against the euro in as much as the US$ does not want to lose its savings status in other countries (i.e. people transacting in the local currency, but keeping US$ under the mattress at home as savings).
6. Per an earlier posting this week, the BIS is changing its unit of measure for accounting from the gold franc to SDR's (a basket of currencies). While this can be interpretted many ways, I believe that the basket of currencies that compose the SDR's held cannot be a combination of gold-backed and non-gold-backed currencies, in as much as this would cause an untenable risk for the SDR if the POG should go significantly higher or significantly lower. Only currencies that will benefit from an ever increasing POG will comprise the SDR to be held by the BIS since it is mathematically impossible to keep the POG suppressed with China actively promoting physical gold ownership via its newly opened exchnage in Shanghai.
7. Gut feeling.
PA
mikal
(03/22/03; 19:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 100094)
Re: Preview of colored $20 bill postponed, rollout into circulation still on schedule
The end of this month was the original preview date for the press to glimpse the first of the series of redesigns, the $20 bill. But the Treasury decided to move it back to the summer, it was reported this week. The new, colored twenty will still be available in the fall.
Leigh
(03/22/03; 19:15:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 100093)
Paper Avalanche
PA, do you really "know" this gold cover clause to be a fact, or are you speculating? Thanks!!
Paper Avalanche
(03/22/03; 19:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 100092)
Mexico selling dollars
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1045511945851&p=1012571727176
Maybe they are aware that there is a new US currency about to be rolled out. A pink FRN that has a gold cover clause to make it equal to the euro. Recent news stories indicate that the new dollars will be rolled out this coming Thursday. Additionally, there are stories also indicating that the terrorist alert will be raised to "code red" this week. Coincident? You decide.
Keep your eye on the ball.
PA
AuBug
(03/22/03; 19:00:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 100091)
Deflation Myth
snip
In any event it's evident that Greenspan is focusing on something other than the facts. Consider the more recent period (January, 1999 - January, 2003). In the graph (above), we see that the gold price has been rising, which means the dollar has been depreciating (inflating) in real terms. For much of this period the money supply has been rising, and at an ever-faster rate. Finally, we see that the PPI rate has been much higher, and has accelerated.
This certainly does not illustrate a "deflationary" episode, despite what everyone claims. All the monetary evidence points to inflation -- and to higher rates of it. But has this monetary climate been bullish for the U.S. economy -- or stocks? Certainly not. It should be obvious that if the current affliction is misdiagnosed as deflation -- and further, if the generator of inflation (the Fed) pledges to prevent deflation and cause inflation -- that cannot be good for the U.S. economy or equities. To return to the bullish period of 1996-1999, the Fed must stop inflating.
The Fed has no intention of doing so.
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=2555
AuBug
(03/22/03; 18:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 100090)
From 321Gold
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/harris/harris032203.html
snip
Look for a Russia/Franco/German alliance to emerge from this. Look for a US/UK/Japan alliance. Look for the EU to have serious problems. NATO and the UN are goners. The UK and France are having a war of words... a friend just told me they removed French wines from the wine lists at many of the high profile restaurants in my area... we haven't seen the end of this divisive split... not by a long shot. On Friday the EU had a divisive meeting. The economic impact? All negative.
So... what's my short term market outlook? I think I could give you an accurate one if the G8 governments weren't in the market. In the short term, the markets are going to go where they want them to go. In the longer term, I am not optimistic. Even if half of the US citizens were paying more than the minimums on their credit cards I wouldn't be optimistic. Even if many of the states weren't bankrupt. Even if the US deficit wasn't about to spiral out of control. Even if the share markets were fairly valued. It's a time to be very careful with your money. Personally, I like real things... things whose reality I am certain of.
I think that next week we can look forward to a siege of Baghdad with Hussein going up in flames. Then we can sit in our duct taped rooms and wait for the Arab backlash and the "hard landing" to begin.
March 22, 2003
Craig Harris
President
Harris Capital Management, Inc. CTA
http://www.harriscapitalmanagement.com
bcharris@gate.net
21mabry
(03/22/03; 18:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 100089)
(No Subject)
Just read a web page that was a russian news site,linked to it from a posting from another forum,this russian site gave diffrent report on the combat situation.I hope it was just propaganda it was opposite of what our news have been saying.
21mabry
(03/22/03; 18:16:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 100088)
PREDATOR
It was stated they fired their cruise missles early,because they thought they saw a target of oppurtunity with one of their predators.The statment was made these unmanned planes operate at 15,000 to 50,000 feet.If these drones can see from that height,what will keep them from using them to keep an eye in the sky on americans in their daily lives.
The Invisible Hand
(03/22/03; 18:13:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100087)
Is Blair, by being Bush's puppet outside EMU,
not giving a free hand to a change of world reserve currency?
From reading this Sunday morning's British press, it seems as if Tony Blair is losing control over the British troops. It also seems to look as if the war is not proceeding like the US media are describing it to be proceeding. What more favourable circumstances can the A/FOA-scenario hope for? Radio France Internationale (www.rfi.fr) mentioned yesterday in one its radio programmes that the Belgian prime minister (Belgium supports France's and Germany's view on the war) had convened a summit for next April for moving towards a Defence Community, WITHOUT THE BRITISH.
To quote one of our mentors: "Interesting times"
Here are two snips from this morning's British press.
http://www.observer.co.uk/comment/story/0,6903,919967,00.html
Information is always power; never is information more powerful than in a war. Generals hate giving politicians the opportunity to second guess them. Even more so do they loathe involving the politicians of another country, even when that country is their staunchest ally. The moment that Tony Blair put British forces under overall American command was the moment when he lost much of his say over how this war would be fought.
+
For Mr Blair, it is critical that this war is swift and light on casualties. On that depends the skill and judgment of the American lords of war and the resilience of Saddam's regime. Along with the futures of so many other people, Mr Blair is in the hands of General Tommy Franks and the Special Republican Guard.
http://argument.independent.co.uk/leading_articles/story.jsp?story=389750
All we know for sure is that some soldiers and Iraqi civilians are dying and that parts of Baghdad are burning
Are the air attacks on Baghdad aimed at intimidating Saddam Hussein and his regime into an early surrender? Or are they part of a sinister, wider purpose, warning other "rogue" states, and perhaps other states too, that this is what they can expect if they trouble the world's only superpower? The second question illustrates how little we know about the broader intentions of President Bush and his divided administration and therefore how unwise it was of Tony Blair to become its unswerving ally. There are some close to the US president who are already urging him, without a moment's pause, to move on to Iran. What would Mr Blair do then?
Goldilox
(03/22/03; 17:47:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 100086)
Cost of War
@CB2-
My apologies. I NEVER meant in any way to slight the ultimate cost paid in lives.That is the most tragic and permanent.
Goldilox
(03/22/03; 17:44:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100085)
World Military Domination (It fits everybody's favorite acronym)
@Lemming
Nothing like a nasty war to bring out the paranoia in the markets and the people who participate in them. This whole topic is way off our subject course, but I really want to respond.
Every religion has a "doomsday" scenario of some sort, and the closer one aligns himself to a particular flavor, the more he tends to believe it alone is ordained by God and he might even be tempted to assist its horrific outcome.
A number of centuries back a huge number of religious zealots drew swords in the middle east, and it was the Christians who were sending babies into battle - now the shoe's on the other foot.
I find it so sad that religion has been perverted from a life-sustaining faith to a death dealing condemnation by politically motivated self-appointed apostles from all sides (many of whom have no education or real historical awareness). As they all fight their way to arrive at their perceived heaven's gate, they may find the temperature there even warmer than Iraq in August!
Sometime soon, perhaps we can awaken to an awareness that planetary survival is not necessarily such a bad thing, but it takes cooperation and work, and more than a modicum of tolerance for each other's religious and cultural persuasions. Cultural genocide and ethnic cleansings are no longer an acceptible answer.
Doomsday fears might help push Spot and Spike in the short term, but many of us believe that pure economic reasoning will eventually support them long-term, and perhaps with substantially less bloodshed.
OK - I am off my soapbox and exchanging my robe for blue jeans.
Dollar Bill
(03/22/03; 17:17:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 100084)
J.M.
Greetings Lemming,
Perhaps the unspoken conspiracy you mention is god giving us human nature and a very tough opponent in life.
"total domination" is not quite accurate. We do get to choose, and this stuggle in life is probably the most creative way to unfold life on earth. Messy, but an epic global and deeply personal struggle that can bring out the best in us. Since we dont live for 700 years, it is best for us to tread carefully daily. With hope.
(may seem off topic, but we can stand by fellow posters)
CoBra(too)
(03/22/03; 17:02:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 100083)
Cost of War!?
@ Goldilox & Clink - Ask the victims - it's only been their life!
... and I'm pretty sure they won't care about the "value" of cost in any fiat currency ... nor would they be too interested to hear it is/was a pre-emptive war, only.
Only? ... cb2
Lemming
(03/22/03; 16:49:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 100082)
Total World Domination
I've got this strange, frightening, sense of foreboding about events that are on the periphery of my vision & comprehension. You are feeling it too. It is felt, though not discussed. If it is considered at all, it is quietly and haltingly discussed with a spouse or perhaps long time close friend.
Much to the consternation of, and denial by many, there is a growing sense that events of Biblical proportions may now be in inexorable control of our individual lives. In the deepest nooks and crannies of our collective minds we suspect that we are now on that exponentially steepening descent into a systemic monster whose goal is world domination.
We've all heard about it. We've chosen to forestall serious consideration of that deep & frustrating potential. We had hoped that the feared events would occur during some other generation's time horizon.
I fear that time is upon us. Observe if you will, our unprecedented pre-emptive strike on Iraq. To what end? Are we inordinately concerned with the liberation of the indigenous peoples of darkest Africa? Why such overt interest in the 'liberation' of the Iraqi community? We could simply stay home, mind our own business, use our 270,000 troops to secure our own borders. There is no question as to whether we have the technical prowess to create a protective (starwars) dome over our airspace to prevent intercontinental ballistic influences. At far less expense we could simply redirect our resources to winning our internal battles with religious proponents of environmentalism & be once again self sufficient in energy supply.
Now for consideration of the most insidious of all dark, enigmatic problems. Are 'they' consolidating total economic control of all world markets at this present moment? I know, this is the heart of the issue, the topic that we dare not assign any credibility to. Why, if there were any validity to it surely 'they' would address it and vanquish it. You & I are intelligent, sophisticated folks, we don't believe in 'conspiracy theories'. Who are these 'they'? Every time the topic is brought up by the 'lunatic fringe' it is immediately & resoundingly dismissed as a topic which 'serious' individuals don't participate in.
Fine, perhaps you have an obvious & valid explanation as to the anomalous market gyrations presently occurring. The U.S. government is presently spending $2 for each dollar of revenue coming in & the dollar is appreciating in value? Deflation, Chinese, overcapacity you mumble. Really? Was your last home, car, hamburger, gallon of gas cheaper than the prior? Please explain how gold can be at inflation adjusted lows in value. Silver, in fact, is at 10,000 year lows when adjusted for inflation. Conspiracy? We dare not consider it.
Why I have seen great captains of industry scoff at the mere mention of conspiracy in the course of an interview. If an individual of such great power, influence & wealth is unaware of a conspiracy that affects his realm then surely there is none.
A minority of particularly astute observers may discern that perhaps the 'conspiracy' derives from a level which doesn't lend itself to scientific dissection, to CPA analysis. Perhaps it derives from a level only vaguely referred to in parables derived from ancient & timeless texts. If your worst suspicions are beginning to tear at the fabric of your life & serenity, perhaps you should investigate this, the most esoteric & 'unsophisticated' of possibilities. Perhaps it is all predicted and predictable. Perhaps the peace & comfort that you desire exists.
Good luck in your quest.
JM
Clink!
(03/22/03; 16:43:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 100081)
War cost - correction
It appears that only half of 1000 missions were cruise missiles. That makes me feel so much better as a taxpayer.
Goldilox, I take your point that the money has already been spent, so the cost is really a question of whether they will be replaced or not.
sector
(03/22/03; 16:39:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 100080)
50 Dead in Basra, Shows Casualties -Jazeera
http://www.washingtonpost.com
Reuters
Saturday, March 22, 2003; 5:42 PM
KUWAIT (Reuters) - Al-Jazeera television, quoting Iraqi medics, said on Saturday that 50 people had been killed in U.S. bombing around the southern Iraqi city of Basra and it aired grisly footage of dead and wounded civilians.
Among the scenes, beamed across the Arab the world by the Qatar-based satellite channel, were a child with the back of its head blown off -- it was unclear if it was a boy or a girl -- and bloodied people being treated on the floor of a hospital.
"It's a huge mass of civilians," one angry woman told al-Jazeera, standing among the wounded. "It was a massacre."
The report could not be independently confirmed. U.S. and British forces have been in action around Basra. U.S. Marines defeated Iraqi forces in a battle on the outskirts of the city on Saturday, and took many prisoners, a U.S. officer said.
It was not immediately clear who controlled Basra and there was no other immediate confirmation of the bombings.
Asked about whether U.S.-led forces had bombed Basra, a military spokesman in Qatar declined comment, saying: "That is considered an ongoing operation and until it is over we're not going to go out there one way or another on that."
U.S. and British forces say they are intent on keeping civilian casualties to a minimum in their war to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
Jazeera quoted hospital sources as saying a total of 50 people were killed -- including one entire family and a Russian citizen -- when U.S. F-16 warplanes planes bombed the city.
The station's images of wounded men, women and children lying bleeding in the seemingly poorly equipped Jumhuriya hospital and what appeared to be bodies wrapped in blankets, were beamed into the homes of millions of viewers, many of whom are already angry at the U.S.-led war on fellow Arabs.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Day two in the Iraq invasion and Al Jazzera is at work sending photos of the dead civilians in Basra. Will the US storm Basra? Get into a street fight?
If they don't secure Basra …all streets…the United States certainly can't do it in Baghdad.
Topaz
(03/22/03; 16:13:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 100079)
Bonds and Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Ctnxy%2Cfvxy%2Cgcj3&period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=11
With Gorilla's running amok in ALL financial Markets, NOW would be a prudent time to look long and hard at Physical Gold in Possession.
Will they stem the T-rout next week?
A Dow down day will surely provide a clearer picture imo.
Goldilox
(03/22/03; 16:12:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 100078)
War Cost are figures so elusive
@clink!
A friend and I were discussing that very question this morning. Pre-paid munitions are probably not included in the War cost, as many would be used up in peacetime, as well, for testing and practice launches, or phased out (not as many, but weapons stockpiles are inventory, not cash assets. Besides, most important, they're already PAID FOR.
The main budgetary deficit, it seems, comes from new and unusual costs like Aid for support of reluctant allies (from press reports, Turkey and Israel are getting some sweet $Bn deals), and rebuilding a freshly destablized country and economy. After all, supporting a soldier on the ground in Kuwait or Iraq isn't substantially different than supporting him in San Diego or anywhere in the US, for that matter. Our COL is still pretty high.
Clink!
(03/22/03; 14:11:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 100077)
How much will the war cost ?
Did I hear that right ? There were approx 2000 air sorties on Iraq yesterday, of which half were cruise missiles. Each of these puppies costs just over a million. So that's over a billion dollars in one day alone. That's a pretty expensive fireworks show.
Max Rabbitz
(03/22/03; 14:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 100076)
Storm Watch
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Jim Puplava's Storm Watch Series is chilling. I wish it were fiction. Having physical gold is not everything but it is essential insurance for these times.
A snippet:
"According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), there have been over 400 cases of trafficking in nuclear materials, including radioactive material used for the production of radiological weapons. Stanford University Institute for International Studies also reports that at least 40kg (88lbs) of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium have been stolen from poorly guarded facilities in the former Soviet Union. Besides nuclear materials, suitcase bombs and nuclear warheads are also unaccounted for or are missing. According to IAEA since the attacks of September 11th the possibility of al-Qaeda acquiring weapons of mass destruction have increased substantially. The State Department states that almost all nations labeled as "rogue states" are now actively acquiring nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. It is one of the supreme ironies of the 21st century that advances in medicine have eradicated most common diseases that shortened human life spans. Terrorist groups and their terrorist sponsors are now acquiring and manufacturing these same deadly viruses with the intention to use them as weapons of war. Their desire is to use these weapons as a means of mass murder of innocent civilians to achieve their political objectives. They hope to either frighten governments or rulers into making concessions or acceding to their demands. The West will either acquiesce, confront or be vanquished by this struggle. So far, most of their demands have been met by appeasement. The terrorists grow even bolder, for they now believe through mass terror they can defeat the United States."
Mr Gresham
(03/22/03; 13:30:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 100075)
"Debate"
http://www.channel4.com/history/microsites/H/history/guide03/timeline02.html
The debate is always about the quality of the national life that remains to us at home, whether its participants realize that or not.
In prehistoric times, nomadic bands competed for survival. Military strength was merely the extension of the hunter's strength. There was no morality involved.
In settled agricultural times, invaders were to be repelled by those designated as skilled warriors. There was unquestioned morality in their maintenance. In fact, it was culturally _programmed_ that they be supported; the culture which doubted its warriors exhibited a death wish which probably expunged itself in due time.
In ancient times, policy was made only by those at the top. Serfs did not expect to influence the nature or quality of the state or its policies. (Our modern conceit? -- and easily dispensed with?)
But, in imperial times, the question of morality may surface, and with some pragmatic validity, too. For it is no longer "all for one, and one for all." Under empire, its citizens are being offered the Devil's bargain. "We will provide you some of the boot we capture abroad, while we at the top gain even more. Just don't ask how much."
It is not surprising that this bargain is easily overlooked, or even welcomed, by most of the citizenry, seeing ahead the easing of their lives, and that dissenters to military action are shunned as a threat to the culture's survival, as would have been accurate in former times of defense against invasion.
However, this steering of the debate on policy into the red herring of argument about threats to survival, reveals the rulers' overall thrust toward Imperium, and the weakness of its dissenters to focus argument on the true threat.
I believe this is a time when we need to study even more the nature of the Republic our founders gave us, even with its imperfections. To learn about the compromises and betrayals that have been made, and imagine ways to reverse them. To advertise the benefits we still retain as citizens of a Republic, and to warn of the pitfalls of becoming subjects of an Empire.
It is hard for me to imagine today's US Americans founding such a Republic in their present state of ignorance and immaturity. And yet, I've always been too pessimistic, and people continually surprise me with their wonderful innate qualities. Might the instinctual drive toward the enjoyment of freedom under a Republic be innate, as well?
It was easy for the citizens of Eastern Europe to identify their oppressors 14 years ago, and tear down the walls that confined them. Our walls are better hidden, but we have tools and resources, and hopefully a tradition planted firmly in our soil, which they did not.
Can we tease out all the different strands of events we see before us now, and identify the moment of Imperial Overstretch when it happens, as a "teachable moment" for those of us at home who remember the necessity for "eternal vigilance"?
"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
-John Philpot Curran: Speech upon the Right of Election, 1790. (Speeches. Dublin, 1808.)
Dollar Bill
(3/22/03; 12:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 100074)
Dougie Nolan
Understandably, the Treasury and agency markets are now in full retreat. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 57 basis points in seven sessions, with benchmark mortgage-back yields up 55 basis points in two weeks. Rates have done precisely the type of zigzag over the past six weeks that causes consternation or worse for the anxious crowd of speculators and dynamic hedgers. Whether this is the beginning of a (THE) serious Credit market dislocation is today unknown, but the potential (gross overleveraging and speculation) is certainly there. At the same time, we don't see the Fed raising rates anytime soon and are mindful of Dr. Bernanke's comments regarding the potential for the Fed to peg long-term yields if necessary. Well, nothing would surprise us… The Fed will surely continue erring on the side of ultra-easy money and a wide-open liquidity spigot. I will continue to keep a watchful eye for inflationary manifestations.
At this point, rates certainly have not jumped sufficiently to squelch the Mortgage Finance Bubble. It will thus be fascinating to follow housing market activity if consumer confidence snaps back strongly, with all eyes on inflating prices and a dearth of inventory out in the Golden State.
So we are left to ponder the near-term prospects for the imbalanced and distorted U.S. economic sphere. Over the past couple of months it could be characterized as The Dynamically Hedged Economy. The faltering stock market augmented economic weakness, as a vicious spiral of sinking equities and confidence took hold. Will the economic sphere again shadow the destabilized financial sphere, this time irregularly on the upside? Don't dismiss this scenario out of hand. Indeed, we suspect the Fed fudged on its "risk bias" because it appreciates the potential for the gasping economy to lurch violently in either direction.
Socrates964
(3/22/03; 12:42:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 100073)
silvergolong
...if memory serves me, in David Landes book on the financing of the Suez Canal he points out that one of the main obstacles to the development of the French stock market in the mid-19th century was the fact that the French recoiled in horror at the US proposition of a limited liability company - since it seemed to offer unlimited license to the directors to rape and pillage their companies while ring-fencing their personal assets. I suppose that by Wall Street standards this counts as being anti free market.
On the currency/bond markets - note that while the $ strengthened, US bonds fell off the edge of a cliff. Remains to be seen whether these trends are perpetuated or not, but all other things being equal, the bond market (which is much smarter than the equity market) seems to be signalling that it doesn't believe the cheap oil/abating of inflationary commodity pressures story. As a corollary to this, note Aussie, Loony and Rand all pretty solid.
My take is that the Japs are desperate to seize the window of opportunity to get the yen down, and traders are taking S-T profits on the euro.
Evidently, the dollar has to keep strengthening to offset the principal loss on treasuries to foreign investors. Too early to tell, as we are still in technical retracement territory.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(3/22/03; 11:57:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100072)
Common sense investing for common and uncommon times...
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