ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/22/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
RobotGuy
(08/22/02; 23:48:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 83551)
Old JCTex,.. gotta love ya brother!
Been awhile since I've posted, but It's good so see some personalities don't change!
It's been a fairly melodramatic few weeks for me as I am still looking for a reasonable source of full time employment.
I see the markets have been just as exciting as my life lately. Old DOW faking another comeback for the lemmings I see.
Just for the record JCTex,.. I still believe Hillary would have been a more entertaining choice!!
All in good fun!
Cheers all!
RobotGuy.
Golden Bear
(08/22/02; 22:46:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 83550)
JCTex (msg#: 83545)
Hey JCTex,
don't get all partisan on me now... being from downunder, I don't have any party affiliations to your two main parties; they're as bad as each other..
The thought of either of those criminals you mentioned becoming president makes me ill also...
Things are no better down here, both main parties are filled with idiots...
Now if only the average Joe Six Pack could awaken, and vote for someone like Ron Paul, I would have a little more faith in politics.
Cheers.
Black Blade
(08/22/02; 22:46:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 83549)
Re: JCTex
No problem. I tend to give a helping hand whenever I can. I have an old neighbor (Korean vet) that I and a friend keep an eye on. We make sure that he eats properly and get him to his VA hospital visits. It's the least that we can do. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(08/22/02; 22:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 83548)
Ongoing supply concerns pressure oil prices
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/energy/1544182
Snippit:
NEW YORK -- Crude oil and products rallied Wednesday on continuing supply concerns despite a surprise build in U.S. petroleum reserves. Wednesday's gains were fueled by continuing war fears and positive technicals, with the major moving averages set at "buy," thanks to the rally of the last two weeks, according to Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Fimat USA.
Black Blade: Oil is the lifeblood of the economy (domestic and global). If oil supply becomes an issue, the US will likely whatever means necessary to obtain it.
JCTex
(08/22/02; 22:39:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83547)
Black Blade (08/22/02; 19:27:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 83533)
You are right. Doesn't look like there is much they can do with anything. Way too much damage done from year's past. My guess is that they will print the green stuff until the press burns up.
Smartest money is sitting on a pile of gold in Colorado, fishing everyday, and observing the surroundings.
If you see a bald-headed old coot dragging a little-bitty, but heavy sack up the road, give him a drink of water and a biscuit would you?
Black Blade
(08/22/02; 22:29:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 83546)
Natural Gas Surges as Report Shows Slowing U.S. Supply Growth
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&tag=energy&middle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APWT.9RXeTmF0dXJh
Snippit:
New York, Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Natural-gas futures jumped 6 percent after the U.S. Energy Department reported a slowdown in growth of inventories, signaling increased use of the fuel to produce electricity as heat stokes air-conditioner use. U.S. supplies of gas in underground storage rose by 37 billion cubic feet, or 1.4 percent, to 2.657 trillion cubic feet last week, the department said. The supply increase was the second- smallest since April. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expected a gain of 44 billion cubic feet.
High temperatures and humidity across much of the U.S. this month have prompted utilities to buy more gas to produce electricity to run air conditioners, analysts said. That demand also helped limit the amount of gas put into storage. Natural gas is used to produce about 17 percent of the nation's electricity, government figures show. Inventories soared to 3.254 trillion cubic feet on Nov. 30, the highest level in eight years of record-keeping, government figures showed. A recession reduced industrial demand for the fuel.
Black Blade: As I have pointed out before, the injection rates of NG to storage as falling fast as drilling and exploration have fallen off. This could lead to fast depleting inventory due to lack of production in spite of current large storage supply. If this winter is a normally cold one supply will fast faster as production declines going into the winter months. Any economic recovery could be quashed with rising energy costs. We should keep our eyes on the rising energy costs as the financial media, analysts and strategists tout the "economic recovery" story.
JCTex
(08/22/02; 22:27:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 83545)
Golden Bear (08/22/02; 21:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 83544)
Gee whiz, I guess we would be soooo much better off with the mental giant from Tennessee, or maybe QueenHillary would be better. Gee whiz, I may puke all over my keyboard.
Golden Bear
(08/22/02; 21:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 83544)
Now for a little humour....
Dubya just declared that laws should be changed to allow the logging industry to thin out the forests, so as to protect americans from devastating bushfires, of course.
It's the forest's fault, they're too thick...
Bush calling the forest thick.... could not stop laughing when I heard that one.
Is anyone expecting this clown to get America out of its death spiral? Really???
Sorry everyone, with all the gloomy news around, I felt compelled to post....
Cheers.
steady
(08/22/02; 21:23:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 83543)
historical reading anyone? John Locke, Consequences of the Lowering of Interest, and Raising the Value of Money (1691);
http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/locke/consid.txt
Sir,
These Notions, concerning Coinage, having for the main, as you
know, been put into Writing above Twelve Months since; as those
other concerning Interest, a great deal above to many Years: I
put them now again into your Hands with a Liberty (since you will
have it so) to communicate them further, as you please. If, upon
a Review, you continue your favourable Opinion of them, and
nothing less than Publishing will satisfie you, I must desire you
to remember, That you must be answerable to the World for the
Stile; which is such as a man writes carelesly to his Friend,
when he seeks Truth, not Ornament; and studies only to be right,
and to be understood. I have since you saw them last Year, met
with some new Objections in Print, which I have endeavoured to
remove; and particularly, I have taken into Consideration a
Printed Sheet, entituled, Remarks upon a Paper given in to the
Lords, &c. Because one may naturally suppose, That he that was so
much a Patron of that Cause would omit nothing that could be said
in favour of it. To this I must here add, That I am just now told
from Holland, That the States, finding themselves abused by
Coining a vast quatity of their base [Schillings] Money, made of
their own Ducatoons, and other finer Silver, melted down; have
put a stop to the Minting of any but fine Silver Coin, till they
should settle their Mint upon a new Foot.
book mark it for the long cold winter night ahead of us...
and many other of locks works here..........
http://www.cpm.ehime-u.ac.jp/AkamacHomePage/Akamac_E-text_Links/Locke.html
R Powell
(08/22/02; 21:22:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 83542)
Some thoughts on silver
Here's some thoughts on silver from another forum.
Rich
Netking, you beat me to it and with a nice looking chart for added color.
It's just the one year rate and may just be market noise but then again, maybe not. It has been noticed at Usagold and G-E but there's no other news. The last run up in rates was rumored to have been alleviated by a 12 million ounce delivery to the London market to ease the shortage. This unconfirmed report was the only info I ever saw from that January lease rate spike.
Ted may rant and rave about the huge naked short positions but until someone big takes a liking to buying or industrial use (demand) can no longer find delivery off Comex, this paper game will probably continue. I don't believe many, if any, of these Comex commercials or funds have strong opinions based on any fundamental supply/demand information. The final signing for passage of government silver buying, without any positive market effect, has further convinced me of this. I just don't think that photographic or industrial needs are purchased through Comex or any other price fixing exchanges. The users buy direct from sellers who are mostly by-product producers selling whatever they have at-the-market price. This income is then used to lower the unit production price of copper or whatever their main product is.
As hard as it may seem to believe, and perhaps because there has been 5000 years of accumulation to exhaust, no one thinks, supposes or will consider that the supply of silver can or will ever run out! There just aren't that many of us and Lord knows we haven't the resourses to move the market. Unless we are wrong and there is unknown silver in huge amounts somewhere, the realisation that there is no more will be spectacular. I'm constantly torn between the suspicion that something has been overlooked and what an outrageous anomaly the fundamental facts versus the POS presents. Either we're wrong (and I don't think so) or the price of silver may very well one day (as Ski suggests) be listed as higher than gold.
I'm a relative newcomer (about six years of obsession) to silver watching but I'm ready for some excitement. Remember, Buffett managed to buy 89 million ounces over about a six month time period before a lawsuit against Philbro brokerage forced him to disclose his buying. Before that no one knew he was even there! No one really knows what's going on with silver. The silly fools may very well use it all before the price goes up. Then we'll see some short covering that will cause dancing in the streets! It will still be a paper game but I, for one, will be very happy to settle for whatever fiat is currently in fashion. Truckloads of it, if necessary.
We'll watch the rates closely!
sector
(08/22/02; 21:11:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 83541)
The Illogical Iraqi War...or IS IT?
The Best Fit Theory
We are all perplexed at the Administration's Iraqi War footing.
Rumsfeld has said this week "We should be prepared for 100,000 to 200,000 casualties her at home from a terror attack". The president is rapidly re-stocking the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to maximum levels. C. Rice is way out front in the media demonizing Saddam while the President plays coy in Waco at a military pow-wow. Thousands of US soldiers reported in Jordan with dozens of cargo jets on a newly minted airbase tarmac in Quatar photographed by satellite in June.
The reasons not to invade a sovereign nation fill a not-so-small book on military tactics. In this case, Saddam no doubt will try and recreate Mogadishu in 1993 replete with shot down helos and trapped street fights. US precision guided weapons would be useless.
Perhaps Peter Arnet can be summoned from "Retirement" to broadcast CNN live from downtown Bagdad during the obligatory months-long artillery siege. Can you see it now?
"There's another children's hospital blown up by Bush's poison gas laden artillery shells"...This is Peter Arnet reporting...LIVE!
Of course the President knows all this. Rumsfeld [Nobody's fool] wouldn't let his boss get too far off course.
If oil to sooth a wrecked US economy was the only reason to do Iraq then why are we spending money to restock the SPR and running the price pf oil up to $30? Doesn't fit. We can simply drop a few brigades in the south and start pumping away while the Bagdad fight roils.
The Saudi plumb doesn't fit for the same reason. Sure they have gold but that stuff is years, if not decades away from real production. Only 1 in ten gold resources ever make it to mine status anyway.
The idea that this is a war to pull a Clinton "Change the subject off a lousy economy" move doesn't fit with the frenetic pace for war preparations. These guys seem to be on full throttle for some kind of launch in the fall. Why launch a war before the election? Nor does the reason that they need a gold capitulation excuse. The subject just can't be brought up even behind closed Administration doors.
There is only one reason so far to explain the Administration's apparently illogical Iraqi War plans:
The President already HAS tangible evidence of a September 11, 2002 terrorist WMD attack on the US and is pre-positioning retaliatory forces. He can't warn the population of the effected city. He has cried wolf too many times. Besides a warning would delay what he really wants...a clear provacation from Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
So Mr. Rumsfeld, in his own way, is telling the US to prepare for what he already knows will happen.
steady
(08/22/02; 20:57:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 83540)
state budgit deficits
california has a 24 billion deficit and is thinking of raising cigartete taxes 3 bucks to help raise money.
texas defict was announced at 6 billion tues revised to 7 billion on wed and today firther revised to 8 billion.
got gold?
USAGOLD
(08/22/02; 20:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 83539)
Deutsche chief economist not for gold investment
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/020822/reuters/nt58378.html
HONG KONG, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank chief economist Nobert Walter said on Thursday he would not recommend investing in gold . . . .
Comment: Yea, I wouldn't recommend gold either if I was short a couple hundred tonnes. . . . . "Herr Welteke," says Nobert Walter, "Where are you? Why can't you get this done for us?" If this modus operandi has the ring of familiarity, it's because the British Exchequer's Gordon Brown and the British bullion banks were exhitbiting precisely the same insecurities just before the British auction sales were announced. Do you remember? First Brown wanted the continental central banks to sell -- even went on tour to try to get it done. Then he started putting pressure on the IMF to sell its gold -- pressures rebuffed by the U.S. Congress. Desperation set in. The Bank of England made mention of a visit to the edge of the abyss -- a peering into it's nether depths. Then the announcement came. . . . .The British would sell most of the rest of their reserves. Is the behavior of Welteke in recent months and Walter any different??
Alas for the German Gold Bears, there is a BIG DIFFERENCE, i.e., the Washington Agreement has capped the amount of gold that can come out of the central banks annually. Though Mr. Walter doesn't like the idea of investors buying gold, perhaps he has a different attitude about Deutschbank getting their hands on some gold. After all, what the investors leave on the table, and what can't be extorted from the mining companies and smaller central banks, the bullion banks have to get out of the market itself -- not an easy task. And you can be sure that behind the scenes, Deutsche will have no qualms about securing it. Even if its from there own central bank. . . . . .Now what is interesting about this whole scenario is that probably it is not even Deutsche's fault that they find themselves in this pickle. It is possible that this all dates back to the Banker's Trust merger. They wanted a retail presence in the United States. What they got instead was a big gold carry trade book. . . . . . . . .And now you know the rest of the story.
The Abyss Revisited. And maybe that's why gold is having problems at the $325 level.
a nation of one
(08/22/02; 20:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83538)
Operative (8/22/02; 12:58:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 83513)
I believe you are right.
Blackjack
(08/22/02; 20:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 83537)
US will delay attack on Iraq at its Peril
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DH23Ak01.html
Ever since the US-led attack on Afghanistan, the Arab world has become increasingly concerned about US plans in the region. These fears were further fueled by Washington lumping Iran and Iraq into a so-called axis of evil, along with North Korea, and the view is now that Washington will attempt to install a pro-American government in Iraq and establish a strong base in the country from which a new order in the Middle East will be established to ensure the implementation of the American vision of peace.
To counter this, backroom maneuvering has intensified to try to draw together those opposed to the US into an effective grouping. It is envisaged that once this social contract is cemented, a clear divide would emerge between the Arab world and the US. And unlike the initially muted response to the attacks on Afghanistan, the US and expect a far more vociferous, and even physical, reply to moves against Iraq, especially the longer it delays.
___________
Arab world turning against US, especially Saudi. Iran selling
missiles to other arab countries its rumored. Iran has tested
medium range missile.
Black Blade
(08/22/02; 20:04:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 83536)
J.P. Morgan Chase Credit Rating May Be Cut by Moody's
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWQQSBSbSi5QLiBN
Snippit:
New York, Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. may have its credit rating cut by Moody's Investors Service, which cited problems merging lending and underwriting businesses two years after the $32 billion combination that built the second-largest U.S. bank. The review of the bank's Aa3 unsecured rating affects about $42.4 billion of debt, and is prompted by concerns related to the bank's transactions with Enron Corp., rising loan losses and waning investment banking revenue, the ratings company said.
Moody's said it may downgrade J.P. Morgan a week after Standard & Poor's Corp. took a similar action. A stock market slump has made it difficult for the bank to integrate after the December 2000 merger of Chase Manhattan Corp. and J.P. Morgan & Co., Moody's said. The world's biggest arranger of syndicated loans also faces probes related to financing Enron, and losses have piled up because of bad loans in the telecommunications industry and Latin America.
``Whenever there's a corporate name in the news in a negative light, they seem to be involved,'' said Bob Truesdell, who holds J.P. Morgan bonds among the $4 billion of fixed-income assets he helps manage at M&T Capital Advisors Group. ``The concern that Moody's and S&P are showing is probably fair.''
Black Blade: Interesting.
Black Blade
(08/22/02; 19:56:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 83535)
Group wants options treated as expenses
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/234/business/Group_wants_options_treated_as_expenses+.shtml
Snippit:
he trade group that represents the US mutual fund industry yesterday weighed in on the stock-option expense debate, urging the nation's accounting standards board to require options to be treated as expenses.
Black Blade: They join Warren Buffett, Alan Greenspan, and many others.
Blackjack
(08/22/02; 19:37:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 83534)
Spending Slowing, Inflation rising in UK = stagflation
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2209292.stm
Spending in the UK's shops has grown at its slowest rate for 18 months.
Sales had been expected to make more of a recovery in July.
We expect to see the slowdown continuing
George Buckley, Deutsche Bank But figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that retail sales were 0.3% higher in July than in June.
They were 4.5% higher than they were a year before.
That rate of increase is the slowest since January 2001, when sales increased by 3.9%.
And the three-monthly figures grew at their slowest rate for two years.
The data will add to fears that the UK High Street boom, credited with saving the economy from the worst effects of last year's economic downturn, could be reaching an end.
If true, the effects of the slowdown would be felt throughout the economy.
Strong property market
George Buckley at Deutsche Bank said: "This does indicate to us that the slowdown in consumer spending is genuine.
"This is not just due to holiday effects which would have depressed June numbers, not July.
"We expect to see the slowdown continuing," he added.
Jeremy Batstone at NatWest Stockbrokers said: "Certainly, if consumer spending does begin to drop, then the authorities will have to take note."
He said spending had been buoyed to some extent by the strong property market.
______________
Inflation also ticked up a bit. I trust UK reporting more than US.
German economy growing? Yeah Right. More like drowning.
Flood damage will increase Guv spending, inflationary.
US employment numbers will be revised again, you watch.
We aren't getting the real stats. Who the hell is buying the
market? It looks like someone is trying to suck the poor investor
in so they can be completely fleeced. I bet the stops are tight.
Black Blade
(08/22/02; 19:27:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 83533)
Can the US Economy avoid a Japanese-style Stagnation?
http://www.smithers.co.uk/newsdyn.php?pgtype=news&pgnm=article&pgmime=&pgndx=18
Snippit:
Wall Street today looks like the Kabutocho ten years ago. Fears are therefore rife that the US economy might follow a similar path over the next ten years to that experienced by Japan since 1990. If America were to experience similar economic problems the consequences for the world would be even more serious for two reasons. The first is that the US economy is twice the size of Japan, the other was that Japan's problems, bad as they were, were mitigated by the US boom of the 1990s. There is, however, no sign that either Japan or Europe is ready to take over as the engine of the world's growth.
The Federal Reserve acknowledges the similarities and has issued a paper designed to allay the fears. The publication shows that the Fed is aware of the risks run by post-bubble economies. But this raises an immediate concern. If the Fed recognises the risks, why did it not seek to forestall them before they became so serious?
It follows that the falling interest rates may have been powerless to support the economy. Both US experience in the 1930s and Japan's in the 1990s shows that this is not without well known precedents. The US also suffers, like Japan, from excess debt. Borrowing ballooned during the bubble and was both a necessary condition of the stock market's madness and a damaging consequence. The need now is to reduce the debt overhang, which is all the worse for being so often hidden "off balance sheet". Reducing interest rates does not reduce debt, it only postpones the problem by making debt payments easier to bear. But this only works, as Japan's experience shows, while interest rates remain low in real as well as nominal terms.
Once a debt explosion has been allowed to occur, it is extremely difficult to unwind without damage to the economy. In the US today there is a major short term risk of deflation and, in the medium term, there is a major risk that the steps needed either to prevent recession, or to recover from it, will set off a renewed bout of inflation. Americans are much poorer than they were two years ago. If they continue their recent trend to spend less and save more, then a further tax cut will probably be needed to prevent another recession. In theory, this would not be required if there were an investment boom, or a sharp improvement in US foreign trade. While the latter is likely in due course, in response to the fall in the dollar, it is unlikely to happen quickly while the rest of the world is quiescent rather than booming. Investment is more likely to fall than rise and thus aggravate rather than alleviate the problem of weak demand caused by a rise in savings.
Black Blade: A very interesting article. It covers some valid points worth considering. I however, I think that we in the west are beyond the point of no return. There appears to be very little political will or much else that can be done to stave off the deepening economic problems.
Blackjack
(08/22/02; 19:13:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 83532)
Paper Flood
http://www.nypost.com/business/55304.htm
August 22, 2002 -- THE next big blow for corporations: underfunded pensions.
Here's what happened: Companies were just as stupid as everyone else during the stock market bubble and they became dependent on abnormally large investment gains to keep pension tills full.
But that trick isn't working anymore. And, according to an important new Merrill Lynch & Co. report, of the 346 companies in the S&P 500 index that have old-fashioned retirement plans, 82 percent were overfunded by just $1.1 billion at the end of last year.
That's an incredible drop from the $215 billion overfunding level at the end of 2000.
And, you guessed it, there may be no pension surplus at all after the woeful performance of the stock market this year.
Worse, the 346 companies were actually underfunded by an aggregate $245 billion at the end of 2001 when health care benefits to retirees were included in the calculations.
Health care and other post-retirement plans are not required by the government to be funded.
Merrill Lynch also calculated that earnings for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies would have been 6.1 percent lower in 2001 if the impact of pension funds, including interest costs and expected asset returns, were not included.
(Fed deficit would be $400 Billion if Soc Sec not counted)
__________________
So instead, the Fed's next move could very well be to further liquefy the banking system. This is delicate stuff, because the financial markets here and abroad could be bothered if Greenspan looks as if he is not even paying lip service to inflation.
And with the Fed's pool of money already growing at a strong 8 percent a year, letting the presses at the mint run overtime is a problem.
The Fed repurchases government securities all the time as part of its regular operations. What the pros will be looking for are repurchases over and above those needed to keep interest rates where the Fed wants them.
_________________
Rollin Rollin Rollin , keep them presses Rollin
Black Blade
(08/22/02; 19:11:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 83531)
Hissing the 'H' Word at Bush
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20020821-114449-8157r
Snippit:
WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 (UPI) -- It is time to discuss those two dreaded "H'-words. Is George W. Bush going to be Herbert Hoover? Martin Hutchinson, our Economics Editor and Bear's Lair business columnist thinks he may. And he may be right. But there is still a chance to hope otherwise.
The conclusion that Bush's economic and political record could be as catastrophic -- at least -- as that of Herbert Hoover, the hapless president who endured three and half years of the Great Depression without being able to do anything useful about it, rests on, unfortunately, on much more than the parallels between the Great Wall Street Crash of October 1929, and the one now fitfully unfolding before our eyes, although that is the obvious place to start.
As Hutchinson and our Chief Economics Correspondent Ian Campbell have been noting with alarming regularity in recent weeks, Bush has already fallen deeply into the classic Herbert Hoover groove of blindly and mindlessly repeating his mantra that business conditions an economic fundamentals are sound when it is clear to all that they are far from sound. And any freshman student of Economics 101 could tell you why --even if they didn't have the benefit of Yale and Harvard Business School degrees, as Bush does.
Black Blade: The possibility of a rejuvenated bear exists. The economy is in a desperate situation. Nothing has been done to address the most serious threats to the economy and yet Wall Street is distracted by the "dog and pony show" of disgraced corporate executives paraded in the weekly "perp walk" before hordes of media cameramen. Corporate earnings (not the "pro forma" kind) and more importantly corporate spending are almost nonexistent and corporate and consumer debt is at all time record highs. The trade deficit and government-spending deficit continues to grow. This does not bode well for an economic recovery that is supposed to be in progress. Meanwhile layoffs are still rising every week and layoff announcements have picked up once again. The real estate bubble may be the next casualty though it has held up only because of record low interest rates. However, Alan Greenspan and the Fed are quickly running out of bullets. The crises in South America and various other parts of the world are likely to sweep across borders. Japan's economy is on the verge of complete collapse as that country's banking system is for all purposes insolvent and held up by periodic government intervention. A global economic depression is building and soon the economic problems of the west are likely to get very much worse. I have stated even before George Bush was elected that he could become known as this generation's Herbert Hoover and I still stand by that.
Golden Bear
(08/22/02; 17:49:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83530)
Operative (msg#: 83523) - Allen R Myerson
http://www.gordonthomas.ie/162.html
"....Over the years Eric Olson turned up many clues, real or coincidental. There was, for example, the assassination manual that the CIA declassified in connection with its Guatemala activities. The manual, created in the early 1950s, identified "the contrived accident'' as "the most effective technique'' of secret assassination.
"The most efficient accident, in simple assassination, is a fall of 75 feet or more onto a hard surface,'' the manual stated. "It was exactly what happened to my father," said Eric Olson...."
=============================
GB: Take alook at the two prominent names mentioned as being involved in the article...fascinating!
Cheers.
misetich
(08/22/02; 16:55:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 83529)
Betting Against a Housing Bust
http://www.msnbc.com/news/795720.asp?cp1=1
Snip:
AN EXTRA $1.3 TRILLION
Toll isn't the only one with a lot of chips riding on today's hot housing market. Across the country, home prices seem to have escaped the confines of gravity. In the past two years rising home values have added $1.3 trillion to Americans’ net worth, and that's helped buoy the stagnant economy and offset plummeting stock portfolios. Last week came more good news: mortgage rates hit 30-year lows, which makes even more Americans willing to spend ever-bigger sums on homes that look better suited for MTV's "Cribs" than a typical suburb.
But as prices keep going up, some observers wonder how long it can last. Two years after the dot-com meltdown, is real estate the new bubble? Most economists (including Alan Greenspan) argue that the price increases rest on a sturdy foundation: low interest rates, strong demographics and a tight supply of homes.
..............
Still, other experts say housing has nowhere to go but down. More stock declines, rising layoffs or higher mortgage rates could bring this party to an end, they say. And some of them are trying to profit by betting on stocks like Toll Brothers to fall. Says hedge-fund manager Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners: "Build-ers have adopted a mantra—’If we build it, buyers will come’—but I think it's going to burn them."
..............
************
Misetich
Greenspan on the run - bubbling away - hoping it won't burst before he retires
Got gold?
Belgian
(08/22/02; 16:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 83527)
Saudi Petro-dollars.....
....are trapped into the infernal financial spiral as all other dollar-holdings are ! The past proliferation of all kinds (sorts) of "funds" that found masses of confetti to move it around and score multiples of it, are an inferno dance. All this confetti that refuses to pay back debt, only proliferates with more debt and gambles (derivatives).
Only 2% (maybe even less now) of all currency flows is involved in REAL economic trades. We are all so arrogantly convinced that this mad circus will and shall go round for ever ! Cheers.
I left this bachanal and sit quietly down with my Golden coins. Am enjoying it harmoniously and serenly. Good night to all of you.
Cavan Man
(08/22/02; 16:14:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 83526)
Mr. Myerson
May his soul rest in peace. Timing is too wierd. I've been here too long. Wow!
Belgian
(08/22/02; 16:03:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83525)
@ Socrates964 : Why is the US$ strengthening ?
Let me give it a try to answer your question.
US$ Bonds are 10 x the volume of the stockmarket. Declining interest rates make bonds rise in value AND ALSO THE CURRENCY ! A decline in IR on a given currency, signals the confidence that this currency will keep its purchasing power. A decline in IR signals "confidence", that the debtor will be repaid ( his issued bonds). We know that all this is as false as can be, but these oceans of confetti have no alternative ! Cash / Bonds / stocks / Tangibles, that's all there is.
Cash = 1,60 % (less netto)
Stocks (and derivatives) = only trading no investment.
Tangibles = Real estate (land) and Gold.
Bonds = almost 100% insurance of further declining rates with rising bond value and underlying currency.
So in the supposition you are drawning in an ocean of dollar-confetti...what are you going to do with it, at present ? No debt will ever be paid for the simple reason that there is not enough confetti to repay or even service (IR) the colossal debts. That's why there is a fatalistic state of mind wich results in plain "plunder" and sauve qui peut (save yourself as you can). Kind of a financial deluge.
The dollar running uphill knowing very well that it approaches the abyss. Just like massive joint suicidale stampedes of lemmings. These animals do this when their food runs out and intuitively know they will starve.(grass less than 1 cm).
IRRATIONALITY is on the order of the day and increasing. Sorry, but can't come up with a very rational explanation that fits all what is happening now. Am afraid this financial idiocy will not go away before it has collapsed in its almost totality. Japan not showing any sign of structural improvement or other disaster areas giving us an example as how to restore orderly growth and stability. On the contrary ! The isolated catastrophies are contagious and affecting the globe, our village.
sector
(08/22/02; 15:50:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 83524)
@Socrates About the Great Saudi Financial "Exodus"
They are simply changing brokers...
...in order to eliminate their account's freezability potential. The Channel Islands for one [A non-OEDC domain].
Their accounts remain largely intact with all the usual DOW/NASDAQ garbage so the dollar really isn't involved...yet.
I do expect the Suadis to begin a steady move of, say, 10% of their assets to physical metal. It may have already begun.
Such a move would add volatility to the controlled gold market...just what we have seen the last few months.
Operative
(08/22/02; 15:48:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 83523)
Allen R Myerson
A quick tour through the internet provides a brief glance at the works of Allen Myerson formerly of the New York Times.
In the past several years he as written about rip offs in Health care, covered/exposed price gouging in the energy business, had a couple nice shots at the tobacco industry, and brought to the forefront a story of gene manipulation by Monsanto and why it cost cotton farmers millions in lost crops. He has authored a book, "The House That Greed Built".
In short, it appears another voice in the wilderness crying out against misdeeds in the corporate arena has been silenced.
Socrates964
(08/22/02; 15:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 83521)
Help required
Trying to think this one through - why is the dollar strengthening - also to different degrees against other currencies - e.g. 2c drop in Swiss Franc, while Canadian $ appreciates.
All this amid headlines that Saudis are gradually pulling out cash from US (probably not just them). Evidently inflows currently stronger than the outflows.
My hunch, based on what I'm seeing in the various Brazilian FX markets (most corporates worth their sale have huge hidden reserves - famous Caixa Dois), is that US money is returning home, but why? - because the Dow is so wonderful? because execs need to line up an apparently unrelated buyer for their stocks so that they can cash in stock options? to plug the holes in their domestic operations?
Are they breaking open all their offshore piggy banks? And when does the cash run out? The only bit that's obvious is what happens when it does.
All musings appreciated!
Socrates.
misetich
(8/22/02; 14:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 83519)
Weak economy costs Calif 115,000 manufacturer jobs
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/08/22/rtr702833.html
Snip:
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A slow economy and the high cost of doing business prompted the loss of 115,000 manufacturing jobs, or about 5 percent of the total force, in California since last May, according to a report published Thursday.
*************
Misetich
The Feds and O'Neil keep on re-assuring of growth ahead whilst the unemployment carnage continues
Got gold?
misetich
(8/22/02; 14:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83518)
Toronto-Dominion Has 1st Quarterly Loss in 15 Years (Update7)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWVD4hUpVG9yb250
Snip:
Toronto, Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Toronto-Dominion Bank had its first quarterly loss in 15 years, as Canada's second-biggest bank set aside C$1.25 billion ($801 million) to cover bad loans.
The net loss in the fiscal third quarter ended July 31 was C$428 million, or 67 cents a share, compared with year-earlier net income of C$321 million, or 51 cents. Revenue dropped 7.9 percent to C$2.47 billion. Results reflect preferred dividends.
Toronto-Dominion, Canada's largest lender to telecommunications companies and one of the 10 biggest in North America, has raised reserves for loan losses three times this year, most recently to C$2.15 billion. The bank's clients included XO Communications Inc. and BCE Inc.'s Teleglobe, which went bust after building underused phone networks.
``The real question is why are banks continually seduced by the lure of corporate investing when the risks are so high,'' said Gavin Graham, director of investments for Guardian Group of Funds in Toronto, which manages about C$2.3 billion in assets, including Toronto-Dominion shares.
**********
Misetich
Gavin Graham is going to be "surprised" on the risks that banks have taken -
Got gold?
misetich
(8/22/02; 14:20:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 83517)
IMF Cuts Outlook for Most Major Economies
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20020822_260.html
Snip:
— FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook cut its growth forecasts for most major global economies, a newspaper reported on Thursday.
Germany's Handelsblatt said the Fund cut its growth outlook for the U.S. economy for this year by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2 percent and by 0.8 percentage point to 2.6 percent for 2003.
Handelsblatt said the figures were based on a copy of the IMF's World Economic Outlook which is due to be released late in September.
The IMF kept its outlook for the global economy unchanged at 2.8 percent growth this year, but lowered the outlook for 2003 by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent.
It also lowered the outlook for the euro zone economy for this year to 1.1 percent and 2.5 percent for next year, but raised the outlook for Japan this year by 0.5 percentage point to a 0.5 percent contraction.
**********
A "leaked" report from the IMF - confirms the global decelaration -
Got gold?
MO VER MEG
(8/22/02; 13:54:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 83516)
Waverider
Thanks for the heads up - much appreciated. Kind of like having eyes in the back of my head.
Lady Waverider, thanks for the kind words to my daughter. I had better be careful or I might lose my mowing partner to bigger and better things.
MOVERMEG
Aquarian
(8/22/02; 13:37:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83515)
interesting coincidence
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020821/ap_on_go_ot/sept_11_plane_exercise_2
wonder how this coincidence happened. or i just must be crazy.
Carl H
(8/22/02; 13:05:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 83514)
@sector: Bond Ratings
I am somewhat puzzled -- I would expect to Berkshire Hathaway on this list and it is not?
Operative
(8/22/02; 12:58:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 83513)
Back To The Future
In the past, on any given day the oceans where filled with large wooden ships either in route from or to Spain. Over the years hundreds of vessels would not endure the treacherous journey and today some still seek their whereabouts. Along with valued items such as spice, coffee, this armada was mainly built, existed for, the gathering of gold/silver. Rarely was the gathering of such done with any concern for those who had done the hard work of extricating the product. Indeed, it was often with thier blood that they gave up the metal.
Still with me here? Hang in just another minute as I have something to ponder over the weekend and on days like today when little is going on in the marketplace.
Fiat currencies, all of them, have limited function and all have a shelf life. The creators of such paper have known this all along. It has been the users of such who have always been left holding the empty bag in the end. So shall it ever be as long as "paper" exists. I am preaching to the choir here so what is my point?
The map of the world is in the state of being redrawn. The battle will not be over fiat money systems. It will be, must be, over resources. Fiat can be created out of thin air, can be easily manipulated, exchanged or allowed to simply fade away and replaced. Resources on the other hand are finite and limited and with a growing world population will gain in value as supplies are used. Knowing this what would be your personal choice to store value? And if your choice is a good one (example gold), what about a government or nation's choice? The recent bail out of Brazil, was it to save a fiat system? Maybe, short term goal. Or is it to preserve, hold foot over, gain advantage to, their resources? Hmmm...? Lets jump to another part of the map, Iraq. The headlines decry, attempt to paint, Saddam as someone who is in need of replacement. Is this what is really happening or is it more to do with a resource? To those who frequent this room credit is given to understanding such things. Yet, what audience was targeted with the poison gas doggy show? Tugging at the heartstrings in order to build up an emotion that they would be willing to send sons/daughters into harms way so as to do away with this evil axis empire. Have we as a nation/world become that ignorant? The powers that be must think so, of at least the masses.
Warships today are now ploughing the waters of the world, and like the Spanish fleet of long ago, are in search of resources. It is my belief, my humble opinion, that a map of the world will look radically different 10-20 years from now. In order to get an idea of what this map may then look like a little exercise is in order. Obtain a map of the world, a large roll of clear plastic, and some colored markers. Begin to plot the world's resources. Water, most of the commodities, mining operations of all types, areas where food is/may be easily grown,oil, make your own list. As one begins to overlay the various maps it will show that 1/3 of this planet is usefull, needed, has something of value. Some of the resources are extremely limited in where they may be obtained, example is cocoa/coffee which has a very limited band around this earth where they can be grown.
Fiat will almost certainly forever be part of the economic system. But those who control the resources will be the one's who control much of the power in the decades to come. There are major forces now positioning in order to gain control. Some objectives will be accomplished via political means, some through economic controls, and some at the end of a weapon, or threat of it's use. The game is on. To the winner will go the spoils also read as resources, also known as wealth. Grasping this future map will allow one to understand the headlines today. It will explain why the "world" has allowed the famine, disease, explosive growth of aids and political instablility that Africa is experiencing.
Someone, is soon to go after thier resources.
Some may ask, what of people? They have rights, freedoms,entitlements, etc. They are in fact a resource. Yes, in large degree a renewable one. A resource that is usefull in producing in order to pay off debt. However recent events should shed light on those that think people are so important. Take those of Enron, who faithfully toiled at thier jobs to find thier life savings have been stolen. Who is offering to bail out those people from a crisis? 30 Billion for the banksters of Brazil, no problem, done deal. Who is going to save the life savings of Enron employees...?
Yes, people are important, but in a limited way, just ask the Inca's.
Gold, a resource of great value.
sector
(8/22/02; 12:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 83512)
Allen Meyerson, New York Times Business Editor Leaps to His Death
Covered Enron, Had Psychological Breakdown in Front of Co-Workers Today
This ensures even more Enron coverage for the foreseeable future.
Now we have a real mystery.
sector
(8/22/02; 12:32:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 83511)
Top 99 Current Bond Issuers
Only Three Are AAA Rated...A Clue to the Economy's Status
Investment Grade Bond Issuer [S&P]____Coupon__Maturity____Rating
Merck & Co. Inc.____________________ 6.40____03/01/28____AAA
Mobil Corp.________________________ 8.63____08/15/21____AAA
Warner-Lambert Co.__________________6.00____01/15/08____AAA
Atlantic Richfield Co._________________ 5.90____04/15/09_____AA+
Abbott Laboratories Inc._______________ 5.63____07/01/06____AA
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co._____________ 6.80____11/15/26_____AA
Kimberly-Clark Corp._________________ 6.25____07/15/18____AA
Lilly (Eli) & Co.______________________ 7.13____06/01/25____AA
Wal-Mart Stores Inc._________________ 6.88____08/10/09_____AA
DuPont (E.I.) De Nemours & Co._______ 6.88____10/15/09_____AA-
Illinois Tool Works Inc._______________ 5.75____03/01/09_____AA-
Procter & Gamble Co._______________ 6.88____09/15/09_____AA-
Alcoa Inc._________________________ 7.38____08/01/10_____A+
Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc.____________ 6.80____01/15/31_____A+
Archer Daniels Midland Co.___________ 8.38____04/15/17_____A+
Caterpillar Inc.______________________ 8.00____02/15/23____A+
Cingular Wireless LLC_______________ 7.13____12/15/31_____A+
Electronic Data Systems Corp._________ 7.13____10/15/09_____A+
International Business Machines Corp.___5.38____02/01/09_____A+
Loews Corp._______________________ 7.00____10/15/23_____A+
McDonnell Douglas Corp.____________ 9.75____04/01/12_____A+
Sara Lee Corp._____________________ 6.25____09/15/11____A+
Target Corp._______________________ 7.50____02/15/05_____A+
United Technologies Corp.____________ 8.88____11/15/19_____A+
Campbell Soup Co._________________ 6.90____10/15/06_____A
Cintas Corporation No. 2_____________ 6.00____06/01/12_____A
Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.____________ 6.95____11/15/26_____A
Dow Chemical Co. (The)_____________ 7.38____11/01/29______A
Emerson Electric Co.________________ 5.00____10/15/08______A
Fortune Brands Inc._________________ 6.25____04/01/08_____A
Gannett Co._______________________ 6.38____04/01/12_____A
Heinz (H.J.) Co.____________________6.38____07/15/28_____A
Honeywell International Inc.___________7.50____03/01/10_____A
Lowe's Cos. Inc.____________________ 8.25___06/01/10_____A
May Department Stores Co.___________ 6.70___09/15/28_____A
Rockwell Automation, Inc.____________ 6.15____01/15/08_____A
Times Mirror Co.___________________ 6.61____09/15/27_____A
Vodafone Americas Asia Inc.__________ 6.35____06/01/05_____A
Apache Corp.______________________ 6.25____04/15/12_____A-
Deere & Co._______________________ 6.55____10/01/28_____A-
Disney (Walt) Co.___________________ 6.75____03/30/06_____A-
Halliburton Co._____________________ 6.00____08/01/06_____A-
Hewlett-Packard Co._________________ 7.15____06/15/05_____A-
Kraft Foods Inc.____________________ 5.63____11/01/11_____A-
Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (The)_________7.00____03/01/29_____A-
Rohm and Haas Co.________________ 7.85____07/15/29_____A-
Sears Roebuck & Co.________________9.38____11/01/11_____A-
Viacom Inc.________________________7.75____06/01/05_____A-
Marathon Oil Co.____________________6.80____03/15/32____BBB+
Tosco Corp._______________________ 8.13____02/15/30___BBB+
Albertson's Inc. ____________________ 7.45____08/01/29____BBB+
Time Warner Inc.___________________ 6.63____05/15/29____BBB+
Conoco Inc._______________________ 6.95____04/15/29____BBB+
Anadarko Petroleum Corp.___________ 7.20____03/15/29____BBB+
Union Oil Co. of California____________7.50____02/15/29____BBB+
Ford Motor Co._____________________ 6.38____02/01/29___BBB+
General Motors Corp.________________ 6.75____05/01/28___BBB+
Dell Computer Corp._________________7.10____04/15/28____BBB+
Ingersoll-Rand Co.__________________9.00____08/15/21____BBB+
Masco Corp._______________________7.13____08/15/13____BBB+
General Mills Inc.___________________ 6.00____02/15/12____BBB+
Federated Department Stores Inc.______ 6.63____04/01/11____BBB+
ConAgra Foods Inc._________________ 6.00____09/15/06____BBB+
Sun Microsystems Inc.______________-_7.50____08/15/06_____BBB+
Olsten Corp._______________________ 7.00___03/15/06____BBB+
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.____ 6.38____12/15/05____BBB+
TCI Communications Inc._____________ 8.00____08/01/05____BBB+
Amerada Hess Corp.________________ 7.88____10/01/29____BBB
Delphi Corp._______________________ 7.13____05/01/29____BBB
Neiman Marcus Group, Inc. (The)_______ 7.13____06/01/28____BBB
Occidental Petroleum Corp.___________ 7.20____04/01/28____BBB
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.____________ 7.63____03/15/27____BBB
Westvaco Corp.____________________ 7.65____03/15/27____BBB
International Paper Co._______________ 6.88____11/01/23____BBB
Consolidated Rail Corp.______________ 9.75____06/15/20____BBB
Norfolk Southern Corp.______________ 7.70____05/15/17____BBB
Weyerhaeuser Co.__________________ 7.25____07/01/13____BBB
Visteon Corp.______________________ 8.25____08/01/10____BBB
Lockheed Martin Corp._______________ 8.20____12/01/09____BBB
Safeway Inc._______________________ 6.50____11/15/08____BBB
CSX Corp.________________________ 6.25____10/15/08____BBB
Union Pacific Corp.__________________ 6.63____02/01/08____BBB
Comcast Cable Communications Inc.____ 7.63____01/02/08____BBB
Kerr-McGee Corp.___________________ 6.63____10/15/07____BBB
TRW Inc.__________________________ 8.75____05/15/06____BBB
Motorola Inc.______________________ 6.75____02/01/06____BBB
Cox Communications Inc.____________ 6.88____06/15/05____BBB
Valero Energy Corp.________________ 8.38____06/15/05____BBB
SuperValu Inc._____________________ 7.63____09/15/04____BBB
Cendant Corp._____________________ 7.75____12/01/03____BBB
Northrop Grumman Corp.____________ 7.75____02/15/31____BBB-
News America Inc.__________________ 7.13____04/08/28____BBB-
Kroger Co.________________________ 8.05____02/01/10____BBB-
Liberty Media Corp._________________ 7.88____07/15/09____BBB-
NCR Corp._______________________ 7.13____06/15/09____BBB-
Raytheon Co._____________________ 6.75____08/15/07____BBB-
Centex Corp._____________________ 8.75____03/01/07____BBB-
Clear Channel Communications Inc.___ 7.88____06/15/05____BBB-
International Speedway Corp.________ 7.88____10/15/04____BBB-
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(8/22/02; 12:07:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 83510)
Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
