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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/22/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(02/22/02; 23:16:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70643)
Baker Hughes-U.S. rig count down 23, Canada down 18
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020222/n22495139_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The number of rigs searching for oil and gas in the United States fell by 23 to 792 during the week ending Feb. 22, according to oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI). A year ago there were 1121.
The number of rigs exploring for oil and gas in Canada was down 18 this week to 410 compared to 553 last year. The number of rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was down 11 to 112 compared to 155 a year ago. The number of rigs searching on land was 656, while the number of offshore rigs was 119. There were 17 inland rigs.
The total North American rig count fell by 41 to 1,202, while last year it was 1,674. The number of rigs searching for oil fell by two to 144, while the number of rigs searching for gas fell by 21 to 647. There was one miscellaneous rig, unchanged from last week.
Black Blade: Energy independence (though impossible) is a long way off. What this means is that there is a reduced current hydrocarbon supply. I did a quick and dirty calculation on the NG withdrawal from NG storage. On the low end we will probably come up short of NG in November and on the high end we will use up the excess supply in just over 3 months. Lower NG prices lead to increased demand that eventually leads to lower supply that leads to higher prices, that leads to lower demand, etc. Meanwhile a severe pullback on NG and Oil exploration and development is a setup for the next "Energy Crisis". Expect a big push by the Bush administration for "Energy Independence" as the November elections approach (just about the time that excess NG supply disappears - how's that for emphasis just before the elections?). Chained CPI or not, it will be quite a job to hide increasing inflation even if energy is not in the core rate. I expect that by then Gold and Silver prices will already be pushing much higher.
Waverider
(02/22/02; 22:56:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 70642)
Congratulations Boilermaker and Jlfletc
Lucky Angels
Very well done! Thank You USAGold for having the contest and Thank You Sir Gandolf for your mighty fine work as moderator. It was a lot of fun! Cheers,
Waverider
Black Blade
(02/22/02; 22:39:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 70641)
Natural Gas Demand Increases and Oil Prices Rise
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=136584
Snippit:
The American Gas Association reported the withdrawal of 112 bcf of gas from US underground storage last week, less than had been expected by analysts. That compares with withdrawals of 156 bcf the previous week and 81 bcf during the same period a year ago.
US gas storage levels now exceed 1.9 tcf, "or more than double last year at this juncture, with a year-over-year surplus of 984 bcf," said Robert Morris at Salomon Smith Barney Inc.
With the significant decline in natural gas prices since the beginning of last year, Morris said, "We estimate that about 75% of US ammonia production that was shut in early last year is now back on line."
"Ammonia production was up roughly 70% year-over-year in January, which added roughly 500 MMcfd of incremental natural gas demand compared with last year," he said. "We estimate that incremental domestic ammonia production should provide an estimated 0.3% increase in natural gas demand, on average, in 2002 compared with last year."
Black Blade: As mentioned previously. It also appears that energy prices are set to rise in spite of a stagnant economy. God forbid that this Recession ends soon - as we simply cannot increase hydrocarbon production fast enough. NG drawdown rates are increasing and if this summer is warmer than usual as predicted by the NOAA, then lookout as energy demand rises further. Even if NG production increases, the Grasshoppers do not have sufficient generating capacity.
sector
(02/22/02; 22:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70640)
The "New Recovery"...With Japan as an Albatross?
@Black Blade
Dittos on the moribund economy.
The Fed and its acolytes are spinning their made-up data so fast they look like a drunken Olympic skater...triple-lutzing themselves into the judges stand.
The elders of Japan don't buy the BS from Koizumi any more than the American consumer buys it from O'Neill.
NBC ran a particularly acidic comment tonight from an anti-analyst who articulated with great skill the Street's dissembling and self serving conflicts of interest...it has been a long time since such anti-stock talk has been heard on the tube.
Enron and JPMs involvement in these offshore Sumitomo copper fraud type schemes have been known for many years to gold bugs. It's a refreshing moment when we hear the media crying foul. As Dan Rather says "We [the media] got a dog in this fight".
All the bad publicity is hurting investment confidence. After all...how would anyone know if your favorite company won't announce the FBI has just shown up in accounting with a very large bag of Krispy Kreme doughnuts and a very small tape recorder.
Until there is a squeaky clean flushing of the accounting AND derivatives trade, the investor will stay "safe"...just where we want them...as Japan lists ever closer to the financial abyss.
Black Blade
(02/22/02; 22:04:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 70639)
Friday's Stock Market Round-Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
A good report from Puplava tonight.
Snippit:
For most economists and analysts on Wall Street the recession is believed to be over. In a recent survey done by the National Association for Business Economics, most economists surveyed this month believe the recession is over. The recession, which many believe has just ended, is one of the shortest and mildest recessions on record. That is because in this recession housing and consumer spending did not turn down as in previous recessions. Due to lower interest rates consumers were able to refinance debt, which enabled consumption to remain strong. In addition, lower interest rates kept the housing market with mortgage rates falling to the lowest level in four decades. Another factor contributing to the mild recession was the new bubble in real estate. Rising real estate prices enabled consumers to extract more equity out of their homes through refinancing which helped to prop up consumer spending.
Black Blade: I have already discussed these situations. Real Estate is a bubble just waiting to be popped. People have low rates and are refinancing to continue a life-style that they probably cannot afford and are digging themselves into an ever-deeper hole. As far as economists believing that the Recession is over - "Ignorance is bliss!" These are the same people who didn't even know that the US was in Recession for a year or more after it began (I called it in March-April 2000 - sold my most my tech holdings and I sure as hell am not an economist). They are sure quick to declare the end of the Recession. I don't buy it, besides their track record is pathetic.
Snippit:
Since we now live in a world of make believe the government is ready to unveil a new version of the CPI. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a chain weighted version of the CPI. The government believes the current version of the CPI overstates inflation. From the government's perspective there will be a family of indexes that measure inflation. In other words, we will now have pro forma economic numbers. If you don't like the results of one index you can go with another one that looks better.
Black Blade: I ditto that! If anything, the "hedonic deflators" and "seasonal factors" and a myriad of other statistical massaging filters mean that inflation as determined by the CPI is grossly understated. A good way of cheating retirees out of their COLA adjustments though.
Snippit:
Another trend that was visible this week was the rise in energy shares. Oil prices are back over $21 a barrel and natural gas prices are inching their way back towards $3. Climatologists are predicting another El Nino weather pattern this year, which could mean warmer summers and colder winters. This argues favorably for energy. Also a pick up in the economy would also increase demand for energy. Add in the political aspects of a possible military action coming from the US against Iraq, and it all makes energy look more attractive.
Black Blade: Ditto again. And if an economic recovery does take place look for energy costs to skyrocket due to increased demand, decreased exploration and development activity for hydrocarbons, lack of refining capacity, inadequate infrastructure, and bottlenecks everywhere. "Energy Crisis" part 2 coming soon.
Black Blade
(02/22/02; 21:35:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70638)
jlfletc and Boilermaker! - You Bums! (just kidding)
I swear they had inside information (grin). Congratulations! As Maxwell Smart would say - "I missed it by that much" Cheers!
- Black Blade
Canuck
(02/22/02; 20:14:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70637)
Spelling quiz
My 11 year old daughter approaches me tonight after dinner and blurts, "Hey Dad, how do you spell Canada?"
Knowing that she is about to pull my leg I say, "How do you spell Canada, dear?"
"C eh!, n eh!, d eh!"
I guess we get our reputation honestly.
Congratulations to the contest winners and thanks to Gandalf and USAGOLD.
Have a golden week-end.
Canuck
R Powell
(02/22/02; 19:26:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70636)
Another one
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barron.htm
"Straight Talk on Mining" by Keith Barron
sourdough
(02/22/02; 19:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70635)
Does the press not get it or do they not want their readers to get it?
The Japanese flock are being herded into gold. A re priced Gold will bring about domestic led economic recovery. The rest of the world must not realize this until the timing is right.........sourdough
February 23, 2002
Hock Lock Siew
Japan property a deflation hedge?
Views are divided over whether the huge household savings will flow into real estate
By
Anthony Rowley
TOKYO stock prices have plunged in the wake of US President George Bush's failure to prod the Japanese government into action on economic stimulus, and likewise government bond prices and the yen have fallen back in disappointment. It seems that the flight from just about every class of financial asset is set to continue in Japan. And against this background, a new debate has begun about the value of land and real estate as a deflation hedge.
Views differ sharply on the subject. Some believe that Japan's huge household savings will flow into land and real estate, as these are 'cheap', and safer than paper assets. (Gold is already enjoying a minor boom in Japan for similar reasons.) Others say that land and real estate prices still have much further to fall and that investors should steer well clear.
Either way, the issue is of interest to portfolio investors as a series of real estate investment trusts or REITs is about to come to the market soon.
Akiyoshi Inoue, head of Sanyu System Research Institute is super-bearish. 'Land prices in Japan will be reduced to a half of their current levels over the next five years,' he said. And, since land in Japan typically represents a very high proportion of the costs of a building, real estate prices are set to plunge too.
This is a devastating prospect given that land prices have already collapsed by some 80 per cent on average in Japan since the bursting of the bubble economy 10 years ago (exceeding even the 74 per cent drop in Tokyo equity prices since that time).
Building boom: Certainly, anyone visiting Tokyo or other major cities at present is likely to be astonished by the sheer volume of construction activity, including mega-projects such as the redevelopment of Tokyo's Roppongi district and developments at Shiodome and Shinagawa. The reason for all this activity is that land prices have fallen so far, and interest rates on loans to finance construction are so low, that it makes sense to build now.
Meanwhile, the supply of land and real estate coming on to the market is set to accelerate dramatically. First, the system of auctioning land held as collateral for defaulted loans is being improved under pressure from the official Financial Services Agency, and there is some 20 trillion yen of such property overhanging the market.
Construction firms are likely to begin disposing of sites in their land banks as they lose faith in a price recovery, and public housing corporations are likely to dispose of residential units. Foreign investors who scooped up Japanese real estate at 'fire-sale' prices in recent years have begun feeding some of it back into the market. Also, farm land in the suburbs will be sold for redevelopment. Finally, the relaxation of floor-area ratios permitting higher buildings will reduce demand for land.
Against such a wealth of bearish factors, it seems hard to be bullish, and yet macro-economics suggests that the pessimists may be wrong. Japan's household savings now stand at almost 1,400 trillion yen (S$19 trillion) , a mind-boggling sum equal to nearly three times the nation's annual GDP. Most of this money is deposited with banks and yields a derisory rate of interest. Japanese savers are used to that, but now they have begun to lose faith in the safety of banks. Also, they are losing faith in Japanese government bonds, and equities are right out of favour.
Good hedge: As a possible financial system crisis looms, land and property may well begin to look like a good hedge, especially as mortgage rates are at rock bottom.
There is also another scenario that could boost land and real estate prices sharply, along with those of other assets - namely, that the Bank of Japan may be forced to 'monetise' much of the debt in the system. It would do this by directly buying assets from private and public entities, to relieve them of their colossal debt burden and reversing deflation.
R Powell
(02/22/02; 19:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70634)
Another goodie
http://www.financialsense.com/series3/intro.htm
"Powershift: Oil, Money + War" by Jim Puplava
R Powell
(02/22/02; 19:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70633)
CoBra(Too) // Enron
Thanks for the Fleckenstein news. It's nice to be able to once again read the "Rap". Along with presenting well written, knowledgeable market summaries, I also greatly enjoy his subtle sense of humor. As a silver loving poster once said, participation to gain knowledge, profits and some fun.
This Enron news keeps festering and struggling to be seen in the light of day. Thanks to those watching and reporting. Will there be a sequel? Who will be next. Another one disclosed hiding behind phoney accounting or, more damaging still, someone else brought down through counterparty risk to Enron. This might bring the falling domino theory back into vogue and severely shake investors' confidence. Whether money flows into stocks as herd mentality momentum investing or well-thought out investments based on confidence, Enron type failures may bring a severe downturn to stock ownership soon.
Thoughts?
Rich
turkey hunter
(02/22/02; 18:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70632)
U.S. Treasury gold
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/02-01.html
The US treasury has updated their gold holdings. According to my figures they are short a little over 6000 oz from January 31 2001. I guess that's not bad. :)
R Powell
(02/22/02; 18:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70631)
Adam Hamilton's weekly offering
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/bustpf.htm
The link goes to the printer friendly essay which my printer just finished printing. Let's see, How many prints could a printer print if a printer could print prints? Oh, sorry, it's eight pages this week for those who like Mr. Hamilton's work.
Happy weekend
Rich
CoBra(too)
(02/22/02; 17:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70630)
Interesting Thought on Internet ...
Slingshot - being the real armour against total loss of
liberty. A reverse 1984, or the real souverein, the people
watching Big Brother, directly. Not the Congress, who has been 'directly' elected to do the job (Congressman like Ron Paul and a few others excepted).
I personally don't feel there's a chance to supress the net. It has grown exponentially and any meddling by the PTB's would probably lead to revolution.
Information - the greatest power of mankind - may well be self-defeating for any political power mongers. This site bears witness to the fact.
Forget guns - go information on the net, not the syndicated dis-information of the mainstream media spin, nor the political 'correct', and don't forget ... hold as much fungible gold as you can afford - cb2
* The next 3 pages are purposely left blank, instead of the usual disclaimer of such lenght - As you don't need one for recommending the holding of gold!
slingshot
(02/22/02; 17:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 70629)
Congratulations
And other comments.
Congratulations to Jlfletc and Boilermaker for winning the Gold.
Thank you USAGOLD for having the contest and The Wizard for his assistance in the contest.
To all those who entered. More than ever as I read. Good to have you on board. Why so long? Over one hundred and the ranks of the Goldbug is still growing!
Plenty of thoughts today but one that strikes a chord.
We have discussed preparations. Gold, Guns, food, water and just plain survival skills. Now the kicker.
CAN THEY SHUT THE WEB DOWN! We all have been fortunate to exchange information on this terrific form of communication.
If they can have a Bank Holiday, can they have a Web Holiday? All the information we share here the average guy on the street has no Idea or does not believe it. This Patriots Act could stand in the way when things get rough.
The Freedom we Enjoy Now may not last forever.
Any thoughts?
Slingshot
CoBra(too)
(02/22/02; 17:03:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70628)
Others are starting to get it!
Bill Fleckenstein's Market Raps are more and more leaning towards gold as an investment. Today he quotes a nimble market timer - a gold bug at heart - who is bullish NOW, after shunning gold for 20 years; Remarkable ...
***Away from stocks, fixed income was fairly firm. The dollar was mixed, up against the yen and down against the euro. The precious metals were basically unchanged.
Gartman's Gold Chain Letter I know some readers are very familiar with the bullish case for gold, and no one has done a better job of delineating those points than my good friend Jim Grant, but in his letter today, Dennis Gartman lobbied rather effectively on behalf of the "why now" case. Rather than giving you a lot of the fundamentals, he describes the very powerful change in psychology that I, too, believe is under way. Rap readers should take all the more note of his bullish remarks, since they come from someone who has been correctly bearish for the last 20 years. So, for those of you who are not familiar with why one ought to consider gold and why one might want to consider it now, herewith his reasoning:
Friday Is Metal Health Day "Most interesting, however, is the strength in the precious metals, with gold staging a very strong performance, finding support as it must in recent sessions, despite what seems to be overwhelmingly bearish news from Germany earlier this week that the government there will be a supplier of gold to the market in size when the British and Swiss gold sales are finished. We understand the arguments put forth by many in the gold market that Mr. Welteke's announcement is stunningly bearish, for by announcing potential German Bundesbank gold sales, he has opened the door for gold sales by other European central banks in the future, also. Simply put, if the Germans shall be selling gold, what then of the Belgians, of the Italians, of the French, et al? If the most conservative central bank is to be a seller of its gold, what then of the more 'liberal' central bankers? Certainly, their only course of action shall be to line up behind the Swiss when they are done, and follow the German lead."
Jeepers Creepers, Where'd You Get Those Seepers? Gartman continues: "This is the argument that very knowledgeable friends in the industry have put forth, and their argument is certainly a reasonable, even a powerful one. However, the investment climate in the world is changing. The great bull market in equities that has marked the world since the early 1980s may have ended two years ago, and if that argument is correct, then money continually seeping from the equities markets will find its way to other investments. If it finds its way to gold, it shall dwarf the gold sales that the central bankers are able to muster."
Of Teutonic Sales & Tectonic Gales Finally, he says, "We have hesitated turning bullish on gold for a very long while. Our clients and our friends have always, always, always heard us decry gold as an investment since the 1980s. But the market has refused to forge new lows; it has held, and it is showing signs of vigor. Holding and now rallying in the face of the German announcement is most impressive. We have always wondered how the market would respond to a concerted effort by the central bankers to 'talk' gold lower. Now it appears that the market is willing to take the bankers on. We sense a tidal shift in sentiment, and if so, it is a very long time in the coming."
****
No further comment from cb2 - just have a great weekend all.
Gandalf the White
(02/22/02; 17:00:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70627)
NOW HEAR THIS !
Would the two LUCKY WINNERS of the French Angel coins please provice their mailing address, via EMAIL, to Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. at
--
jill@usagold.com
--
PS: ONLY messages from the KNOWN ISP coded winners will be accepted.
Thanks
<;-)
Bullrider
(02/22/02; 16:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 70626)
Gold/Silver: The Brewing "Perfect Storm"
Since my last posted essay was received quite warmly by many of you (thank you to all who responded!) I thought I might share the following article, which I first wrote for the folks at GATA in March last year after I'd watched the movie, "The Perfect Storm". Although Chris Powell included it in GATA's YahooGroups archives, it never really saw the light of day, and most people never got a chance to read it. I humbly offer it for your perusal here and, as ever, welcome any feedback. As you'll see later in the article, this information may prove to be much more timely now than it was when I wrote it last year. I hope you enjoy it.
I have been bothered lately by one of those mental frustrations we all have occasionally in which you know you have a piece of information somewhere in your memory banks but just can't seem to access it. For some unknown reason -- due mostly to the unfathomable workings of the incredible, Universal Consciousness we refer to as "mind" -- a distant memory began to surface over the past couple of weeks involving something I read more than 20 years ago in one of Buckminster Fuller's amazing books entitled, "Critical Path."
I was still in college at Southwest Texas State University when I read it back in 1981 and had the privilege to hear a lecture by the old geezer himself just the year before, which was shortly before his death. "Bucky," as he was affectionately called, was truly one of the 20th century's most brilliant thinkers, as nearly everyone who is familiar with his work will agree. You may recall that he was the inventor of, among many other things, the geodesic dome, a structure which is self-supporting no matter how large it is built. To refer to Fuller merely as a "genius" would be to severely understate this amazing human being.
Although I was only about 22 at the time and was far too young to be concerned with such "useless" and "mundane" things as investing for my future (God, if only I had known!), for some reason something Fuller said in the book regarding gold, and metals in general, stuck in my mind all these years. (Come to think of it, this may be one of the few things I learned in college that DID stick, probably because I chose to read Fuller's work on my own -- strictly out of intense interest in the man -- and not because some professor assigned it.)
Well, to make a long story much longer, I couldn't stand the cognitive puzzling, so I decided to track down a copy of the book. I called all around the city and couldn't find it in any of the bookstores, but one of the branches of our public library (ah, the well-spent tax dollar at work!) had a single copy -- hardback, no less!
I spent an hour or so perusing the sections of the book listed in the index under "gold" and finally found the information my mind so faithfully locked away more than two decades ago. Why this would stick in my head during a period of my life when I had absolutely no interest in the subject of gold I cannot explain. But perhaps there truly are no coincidences, and it just may be that the Universe was simply storing the information away for me until it was most appropriately brought forth.
Allow me to quote directly from Fuller at this point, bearing in mind that, with your patience, I will attempt to show how all this copper-related information may relate in an amazingly timely manner to the present gold/silver situation:
* * *
"Metals recirculate on a sum-total-of-all-metals-average every 22 1/2 years....
I was able to arrive at that figure of a 22 1/2-year metals recirculating cycle in 1936. I was working for Phelps Dodge Co., which had asked me to give them some prognostications about the uses of copper in the future of world industry.
Copper is the most plentiful of the most efficient electric power production and conduction metals. World War I was a power-production war. And copper is the most plentiful of non-sparking metals and is therefore logically employed in connection with gunpowder-handling equipment such as the shells inserted into the gun breeches. Because of these facts, the demand for copper in 1917 was epochally great.
Not long before World War I and its huge demand for copper, copper-ore-to-pure-metal reduction by the vastly less expensive flotation process and the also much less expensive electrolytic refining brought the cost of mining and refining copper so low that the cash value of the average amounts of recoverable gold and silver co-occurring with the copper ... exactly paid for all the mining and refining of the copper itself. The whole price paid for copper was profit. The mineowners then decided to mine only when the prices bid for copper were at a peak. The prices bid always peaked in wartime. With World War I over, the world copper cartel waited and worked for the start of World War II.
In the 1930s the big copper companies were badly bothered by the influx of copper into the marketplace. Up to the time when I came to study the copper situation, the rates of evolutionary change were so slow that the mineowners had no idea that the copper they sold would ever come back on the market to disturb their price.
By 1936 the copper price controls were completely challenged by the scrap influx. Phelps Dodge asked me to do some research on the problem, so I reviewed all the known, published data of the metals world. In the metals world very accurate records are kept about how metals have been and are now being used. Very profitable publications are maintained by the affluent metals businesses. Very accurate inventories exist detailing, for instance, how much of a given metal is built into an automobile.
In 1936 there was only about 30 pounds of copper in each American automobile. Copper is expensive, and the auto manufacturers try to keep the use of expensive metals to a minimum. However, considerable copper is used in a gas station -- for instance, in all the gas-tank-filling nozzle equipment -- because it is non-sparking. You couldn't possibly use a sparking metal such as steel around gasoline.
I was able to arrive at that previously undiscovered 22 1/2-year recycling figure by very carefully integrating the total inventory of the in-use tonnages of metals in all the main categories of their use -- for instance, the inventoried copper in all extant buildings, in old roofings, gutterings, and flashings, brass pipes, and so forth. The total inventory of copper in old buildings, both business and residential, is an inventory that becomes obsolete and is scrapped and recirculated on an overall average of once every 50 years. Within the building category copper comes out faster from big city buildings than from single-family country residences....
By taking the invention-gestation rates in the different industries ... we integrate the amount of copper in each use-category and their respective number of years of use, and thus find the average rate at which copper (and all the metals) come back as scrap every 22 1/2 years.
The unprecedented great World War I copper production occurred primarily in America. In one year, 1917, humanity took more copper out of the ground, refined it, and put it to work than had been cumulatively produced in all the world throughout all previously recorded history.
This produced in 1917 a vertical cliff on the "all-history charts of world copper production." Adding 22 1/2 years to 1917 would bring the date of reappearance of the crest of the 1917 world-record production scrap to July 1939. So I told Phelps Dodge in 1936 that three years later, in July 1939, they were going to be overwhelmed by scrap.
Meanwhile, I became the science and technology consultant on the editorial staff of Fortune magazine in 1938. In July 1939 the head of research for Phelps Dodge called me up on the telephone and said, "Bucky, your 22 1/2-year scrap-return prediction is absolutely right. Go down to the New York docks and observe." I did so. Alongside all the great cargo ships were cargo barges filled with scrap metals, piled enormously high.
Copper is plentiful enough to be trustworthily used but scarce enough to be used only in the most efficient manner. Copper is a sensitive metal -- the so-called bellwether of the metals. Whatever copper does indicates exactly what the other metals are going to do in the price and production markets; for instance, steel scrap was also coming back at exactly the same rate as copper -- 22 1/2 years after production from newly mined ore.
Hoping to protect their anticipated very high prices when World War II came along, and all unbeknownst to the general public, all the U.S. metals owners in 1939 were selling all their scrap metal to Germany and Japan to have it fired back at America two years later when World War II did come along for the United States. It was not a moral thing for the scrapmongers to do. The public had not the slightest idea what was going on -- the American business public didn't catch on to the idea of metal-scrap recirculation until long after World War II was over. The American and world publics have not as yet caught on to the significance of recirculating scrap metals...."
* * *
First, note that Fuller does not say that all metals run in exactly the same cycles, but that, ON AVERAGE, they do run in 22 1/2-year cycles. Second, it should come as no surprise that no period in human history -- and no significant MARKET, for that matter -- is free of scoundrels, and the copper market back then was apparently no exception.
I find it interesting that Fuller singles out copper as the bellwether metal. Since copper began its most recent move upward in early 1999 to the peak of the move in the fall of 2000, it rose roughly 50 percent. On the other hand, gold, during the same period, fell nearly 12 percent. This is a 60+ percent swing -- an amount far too great, in my opinion, to be naturally occurring. Platinum and palladium went through the roof in that same period, while more exotic metals, such as rhodium, headed to the moon.
Given Fuller's observations about the metals cycles, it seems all the more strange that gold and silver continue -- pardon the pun -- "bucking" the trend, oddly exempt from healthy gains even during otherwise robust metals appreciation periods such as the one described above. Fuller's calculations obviously could not account for unnatural, outside factors such as artificial market supply manipulations.
Readers familiar with modern precious metals pricing history will note that the last time gold and silver prices began skyrocketing was in the fall of 1979. A quick addition of Fuller's approximate 22-and-1/2-year cycle beginning from that autumn brings us precisely to the the first several months of the present year of 2002! (Again, please remember the 22.5 years is a "sum-total-of-all-metals AVERAGE.")
We should note that the extreme supply/demand imbalance that began to grow acute in early 1979 and ran throughout most of the following year actually started showing signs of arrival as early as the latter half of 1976. In a "normal" market cycle, this pattern is fairly typical. No such precursors are presently evident in the gold market; even given its recent runup to $300, gold is still well below even its October 1999, post-Washington Agreement peak of approximately $330.
Buy why, if Fuller's assertion of the 22 1/2-year metals cycle is accurate, have we not seen a steady, gradual increase in the prices of gold and silver over the last year or two? We can assume, I suppose, that those who actually need the metals in hard, physical supply (as opposed to temporary paper-based "holdings") are evidently securing all they require -- for the moment. There has, apparently, been enough physical metal available for the past several years to satisfy the industries that use it. Those of us who follow these markets know full well that much of this supply was "mined" directly from the vaults of various governments' central banks!
Given Fuller's scientific claims described above, therefore, a reasonable person might begin to wonder why, at the tail end of what Fuller states is a completely predictable cycle, gold and silver prices never seem to climb AT LEAST CYCLICALLY along with the prices of other precious metals. Of course, the reasons have been well-documented by GATA and individuals such as Ted Butler for some time now. Still, the evidence presented here seems to lend ever more credence to the claims that something is very wrong in Goldville, especially considering the precarious economic environment which prevails.
Assuming that the unprecedented high prices paid for the precious metals in the approximate 12-month period beginning in late-1979 brought forth unprecedented supply, one can reasonably ask why the ever-decreasing price and supply of these same metals in recent years hasn't brought about the usual result of such occurrences: higher demand and higher prices (bear in mind the old addage: "The cure for low prices is low prices!). Anyone who has followed GATA's stream of high-quality information on this subject over the past couple of years knows, of course, that gold demand HAS been rising steadily -- and for several years running. All the more strange, one would think, that the price of gold has, for about four years now, remained at prices not otherwise seen since -- you guessed it -- 1979!
As I write this letter from my dwelling in south Texas, it is approaching midnight. And I can't help but think that, somewhere in the world tonight, there is a bullion dealer, or perhaps a central banker, or maybe just a fellow with lots of money and power and the right connections, lying in bed, drifting off to sleep with a barely perceptible smile of smug self-satisfaction on his face -- thinking, no doubt, that he is immune to the forces of truth; that his cleverness will continue to exempt him from accountability; that his divine manifest destiny will continue unabated. Little does he know of the approaching events which will expose him for the moral pauper he is. From the north, the cold, cruel winds of GATA's
mounting case against him are converging on the warm, clear natural metals cycle moving in from the south, compounded by the foundational stresses of a world financial structure based on fiat, paper currencies and the dangerous, complex instruments derived from their manipulation (derivatives). Together, these forces are quickly -- and surely -- preparing to create the loud, thunderous, and hellish cyclone that will rip his reality asunder almost overnight. Together, they are quietly forming the "perfect storm."
Gimme Shelter
(02/22/02; 16:38:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 70625)
Physical delivery
Man dont I know that.
I am trying to find a source for 3pgolds currency hedging, but they are soooo different and far between. I guess I need to continue my correspondence with George to establish our relationship.
How will we ever give the mines another product, if we can never get the dang thing off of the ground because of the markups of the dealers and everyone in between. I honestly do not know how the other gold currency's can do it, auditably.
Thanks for your insight.
Congrats to todays lucky Winners!
R Powell
(02/22/02; 15:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70624)
Contest-- just missed!
I saw right away that the Invisible Hand had guessed slightly high at $8,752 and that Limit Up was a tad low at $1,500. I thought for sure that sneaking in-between at $5,126 was the proper strategic move. I'm going to have to refine my system just a little bit.
Congratulations to jlfletc and Boilermaker!! Thanks also to the Wizard for his outstanding work.
And, being Friday-
Happy Weekend to all!!!
Rich
Boilermaker
(02/22/02; 14:54:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 70623)
Contest
Many, many thanks to the esteemed proprietor of this site, MK and the faithful Gandalf the White for making my day. I was watching the Kitco chart ($290.9 close) and thought so close but no angel. Bless all the marvelous and far more deserving contributors and contest competitors for making this forum my favorite spot to visit and learn.
I'm happy to say that I'm a customer of CPM and that this angel will be in good company. As a mostly lurker I hope to contribute in the future. I can relate to the energy messages from BB since I was in the power generation equipment business for many years. My first big sucess in the market was the O&G boom in the late 70's. Now retired, I have a farm with two oil/gas stripper wells that were drilled in 1950. They keep my house warm and I sell some crude, probably join OPEC if asked.
RobotGuy
(02/22/02; 14:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 70622)
Just did some minor calculations
Called a local dealer. Dealer markup of a random dealer one ounce maple plus mandatory Provincial Sales Tax adds slightly less than CDN$100 to every ounce purchased. Converted to $US for this dealer, gold in your hand price was US$348.49 Now you know where I'm coming from with my complaints about dealer markup and taxes.
sector
(02/22/02; 14:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 70621)
Who's Minding Derivatives?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49526-2002Feb21.html
Who's Minding Derivatives?
By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 22, 2002; Page E01
It's a market that's fast growing, worth trillions of dollars and credited with keeping the economy rolling. It's also a tangle of largely unregulated financial contracts that have played a role in at least five major financial scandals in the last eight years, including that of Enron Corp.
Could the current hand-wringing in Congress finally prompt oversight of this extremely valuable, highly volatile web of financial agreements known as the over-the-counter derivatives market?
Thomas J. Erickson, commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, says he's not overly optimistic. Since being appointed commissioner in June 1999 by then-President Clinton, Erickson's has been one of the few voices in Washington calling for greater federal oversight of these derivatives.
Even as Congress holds dozens of hearings into Enron's collapse, Erickson points out it was Congress that just over a year ago passed legislation allowing energy contracts like those at the heart of Enron's business to be traded with no government oversight.
He opposed that aspect of the December 2000 legislation, despite its support from Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and a fellow Clinton appointee, then-CFTC Chairman William J. Rainer. Erickson continues to oppose it, a stance that puts him at odds with the current CFTC chairman, Bush appointee James E. Newsome.
"In the Wake of Enron, I believe that it is more important than ever for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to inform Congress of the potential risks associated with the unregulated trading of derivatives," he wrote to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee recently to underscore he didn't agree with Newsome's testimony before the panel at the end of January. ]
+++++++++++++++++++
First they find JPM set up Mahonia...now even the CFTC head is waxing for regs...who knows, maybe it will happen...long after the MoTU leaves of course.
BTW since nothing is confirmed until it is officially denied, does today's denial by AG mean that he IS really gone?
RobotGuy
(02/22/02; 14:05:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 70620)
Lucky Angels Winners!
Congratulations you lucky golbugs!
(sorry about earlier mistaken message, I thought SIR MK won! Duh you can see how well I pay attention)
Gandalf the White
(02/22/02; 13:56:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 70619)
WINNER(S) of the GCG02 Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !
Congratulations to the TWO LUCKY WINNERS !!
The COMEX GCG02 Settlement Price today was ****$293.2****
(Sir MK says) Because no one would dare to cut a lucky Angel in half, we will award two Angels to the lucky winners. Sir jkfletc and Sir Boilermaker shall both receive the "Gold Metal" French 20 Franc gold Lucky Angel coin.
(Similar to the one shown at the link: http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/FrenchAng.html)
Please go ahead and make the announcement with the proper fanfare. I suppose I can handle those infernal trumpets one more time.
(The Wiz, plugging his ears, says:) OK !!
TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
(Sir MK says:) OH! My ears. I can only take so much of that sort of thing, as you know. And everytime something happens here. . .there's the trumpets!. . . . . . .Who's idea was it to have trumpeters anyway?. . .
Is there some way we can have them stop with those infernal trumpets and fanfare everytime we do things like this?.. . .. . ....Perhaps we can meet at the Table with the rest of the Knights and Ladies and discuss that. Can't we get StradMaster to play something soft and mellow on his violin?. . . . .I love the violin. So subtle. . . . . Understated. . . .Bach. . .yes, Let's make it Bach. . . .Just a thought.
(The Wiz respectfully replies:) Sorry, Sir MK, StradMaster must be booked, as he has not been seen at the Castle for a while, but we have sent out the Hobbits to find him. <;-)
---
THE WINNING ENTRIES !!! As the Settlement price on Friday, 22nd of Feb. was ****$293.2****
---
jlfletc (02/20/02; 12:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 70463)
Contest guess
****$293.30*****
I think POG will recover slightly by week end, but I think the past couple of days show the ferocity of the Paper Pushers and their agenda.
---
Boilermaker (02/21/02; 10:11:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 70540)
Contest
********$293.10*******
Looks like the price drifting higher but expect Friday sellback. Also, a friend at JPM owes me a favor and will provide some market "guidance" tomorrow. Just kidding.
======
NOTE from The Wiz -- I wish to thank all of you for your patience and understanding for all my errors, and only hope that you all had as much fun with this CONTEST as I did in trying to manage it. The comment notes to the "Price Guesses" were an extra bonus to see your "THOUGHTS" !! Thanks !
<;-)
nickel62
(02/22/02; 13:45:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 70618)
Not an ad but I have bought gold and had it delivered to my house
from our host Centennial and been very happy with the price and the service. I shopped the market and found their markup to be the most reasonable from someone I was willing to trust with my money. Having been a lurker and a poster here for almost three years I think I owe them an acknowledgment when someone asks who sells gold in bulk at a fair price. Thanks for the web site Centennial.
jlfletc
(2/22/02; 13:32:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 70617)
Contest
So, what was the winning price?
RobotGuy
(2/22/02; 13:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70616)
@Gimme Shelter
I'm personally thinking about going to the U.S. and purchasing my gold wherever it is sold with the lowest add-ons, close to the border, and smuggle it back to avoid nasty Canadian taxes. I know,.. I'm a very bad man.
Gimme Shelter
(2/22/02; 13:10:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 70615)
Physical delivery
So the task at hand for one ready to move into gold is,first find the best price per ounce, then how much is it to be delivered.
In researching this, what is the price and all of the fees associated with the purchase.
Who in the USA has the ability to provide Joe consumer a price on a 400oz bar delivered to his home, that beats everyother gold broker?
What does USA Gold charge for this transaction?
RobotGuy
(2/22/02; 13:05:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70614)
OH!, and by the way.....
Congratulations SIR MK!!!!! You lucky goldbug you.
RobotGuy
(2/22/02; 13:02:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70613)
Christmas Bonus
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE6F2AB22%2D5AF2%2D402E%2DB13C%2D77D0E96E28DD%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippet:
CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- A lot of Americans may have been expecting a bonus from their employer at year's end, but the only bonus most got was to keep their job.
Almost 60 percent of employees in a recent survey said they got nothing extra in their year-end paycheck in 2001. Of those, 44 percent said they thought they were going to receive the added compensation, a survey by TrueCareers found
.....................(more to article)
RobotGuy: I used to get marvelous Christmas bonuses at my last company, one year it was two full weeks pay based on your entire annual average weekly hours, and two paid weeks off!!
This year I received nothing, no party, no bottle of wine, nothing, not even a christmas card, hell, not even an e-card. What would you expect the ramifications of this will be if 60% of all North Americans didn't get this expected bonus? A lot of credit card debt. Who lives paycheck to paycheck? A hell of a lot of people that's who. How will you make your payments on your regular/reduced income?
Last question; Is there anybody out there who truly believes this market is in recovery mode??
Black Blade has been reliable as long as I can remember participating in this forum, and I'm sure well before my time. We've not even seen the beginning of this so called recession.
Markets in recovery mode,....BAH!!!
Gandalf the White
(2/22/02; 13:01:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70612)
SIR MK -- Re: CONTEST
You have Email !
Get the TRUMPETS ready.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(2/22/02; 12:01:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 70611)
Black Blade. . . .Gold Can Withstand Central Bank Sales
I completely agree with Chris Thompson and I completely agree with your characterization of Mr. Thompson as well. He's a good man. In fact worked in Denver for a few years -- the altitude must have affected his gold thinking (smile).
I'll give you an example to make the case:
The average gold scrap sales annually are something on the order of 600 tonnes, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services (not related to the gold-mining GoldFields). In 1998 when gold scrap went to 1100 tonnes (almost doubled) because of the Asian meltdown, net hedging dropped from 472 tonnes the previous year to 60 tonnes the same year the scrap supply nearly doubled. Similarly, net hedging spiked in 1995 when official sector sales were noticeably on the wane.
In other words, the elasticity to the market was provided through hammering away on the mining companies to sell gold forward. If stalwarts in the industry like Thompson, Murdy, Lassonde, et al are correct that we've turned the corner on hedging and we are going into rapid decline on that line item, this takes an important tool out of the hands of the bullion bankers who have used it as a regulating device. To the typical businessman or practical financial-type the whole thing looks backwards because usually we view supply (manufacture) as coming first and then you sell it. What's been going on in the gold market is the demand comes first and the bullion bankers do what it is necessary to fill it.
So when in 1998, gold scrap from Asia fulfilled the need, net hedging came down. In 1994 -1995 when official sector sales cratered, hedging more than tripled year over year to cover it. Once that regulating device is removed, no one knows what the reaction is going to be but most of the experts are now saying its going to be positive for the gold price. That's why you see top-notch mine company executives like Chris Thompson alluding to it whenever they get the chance -- IT'S THAT IMPORTANT!
The Bundesbank Maneuver is just that -- a maneuver, a ploy meant to offset the developing bullishness following the Newmont merger and the general change of sentiment in the mining industry with respect to hedging. They are trying to make some gold depositor feel good about their deposit in the face of a potential major run-up in the price.
Between now and the date the Bundesbank can sell any gold, there will be a German election (thanks CB), a potential worldwide liquidity crisis led by Japan, and a continued currency war (meltdown) in the third world with all the attendant consequences to money-center lenders (not to speak of the fantasy-land corporate balance sheets they've all lent against). . . .Most importantly the supply-demand tables will begin to show that the net hedging elasticity has disappeared. The odds are against the Bundesbank on this one and, even if they do sell, it will be into a market desperately in need of metal. The bullion bank black hole I alluded to the other day is alive and well -- and sucking every bit of physical out of the market it can find. That's why we continue to caution investors to purchase the physical metal whenever they get the opportunity and store it nearby. The biggest open secret in the gold mining business today is the lack of metal in any size. Demand from both official and private sector investors is the real force driving this market over the long run and they will do everything they can along the way to dent gold sentiment. All to no avail. Instead of bumping up incrementally like it would in a normal market, because of the circumstances outlined here, gold is likely to explode one day -- just as it did in the early 1970s after the London Gold Pool broke down. . . .the last time a concerted effort was made to hold down the price. Markets tend to eventually move in the direction opposite any controls -- once the controls are either willingly or forcibly removed. If the control has been radical, the response in the opposite direction will be radical as well. Planning for that event has paid off handsomely in the past. In my view, it will pay off handsomely again -- not just in currency profits but peace of mind.
P.S. We continue to get a strong flow of people with IRAs moving some of their retirement into gold. This is a good idea under current circumstances when you simply don't know what the real situation is with the stocks you hold -- are they profitable companies or aren't they? Simple money markets aren't paying anything and taking a major hit after inflation is taken into consideration. And we aren't even talking about future inflation, but the current rate! Call George Cooper at the office for details.
Also, the $10 gold pieces are moving very well. This is a good deal and we encourage your looking into it.
Pls excuse any typos etc. I'm getting this up fast between telephone calls.
RobotGuy
(2/22/02; 11:39:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 70610)
Lemming DOW
DOW in super "milking phase" today. I pity the poor lemmings. Someone's making a little extra cash for the weekend.
My idea of 'real wealthy guy' VS. 'stockbroker' dialogue.
RWG "Pick a large volume stock and buy like I've been tipped off"
SB "OK. I see where you're going with this"
RWG "Okay... wait... wait.. watch the lemmings.... and SELL NOW!"
SB "Right on bro, thanks for the comission, let's do it again!"
RWG "Aw heck why not it's the weekend!"
uponroof
(2/22/02; 11:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70609)
Can anyone tell me.....
why COMEX is still closing early.....now 5+ months after 911? Are they hiring? Can I get a job there? The 5 hour workday seems agreeable. I am all ears. LOL
So how far will manipulation and intervention go?
Regardless, the gold market is telling one very important thing...
Those that control all the money in the world, and have the resources to impact all markets are very frightened of 300+ gold. That equates to great vulnerability, containing wide spread ramifications, which could yeild a proportionate magnitude of 'profit'.
The question we all are asking is can this vulnerability be realized given the powerful entities defending, and the ease of which they are able to 'correct' POG with only a few choice words.
I have been watching this market for more than a few years and in doing so can see the underlying sentiment slowly but surely changing. A few years ago POG was but a toy to be played with by these 'strong dollar / currency kings' who laughed at accusations of intervention.
Lately, thanks to a failing global economy, exploding physical demand (mines and Japan) and GATA's legal pressure POG is not so easily toyed with in such cavalier manner. In fact, it is an enormous problem which is soiling more than a few pairs of shorts.
To answer the question regarding intervention completely involves information we are not privy to. For instance....to what length will the CBs go, in order to protect the bullion banks and commercial houses who are now at risk? I suspect the 'length' is considerable since the gold in question ultimately belongs to them. Is there perhaps a level of compromise they are trying to reach which would involve less damage, both politically and financially? What is less damage? How long will such a plan or any plan take? All unknown, all speculative at best.
For now one gets the impression they are on their heels, buying time in whatever manner possible. Hence the ridiculous, though effective, statement from Germany's Bank.
To that end, how many more times can these phoney statements regarding CB gold sales work? Each time trotted out it loses more credibility, becomming increasingly discounted. I would classify these actions as nothing less than desperate with rapidly falling market impact value. What they are playing on is ignorance, or lack of understanding of the 1999 Washington Agreement.
The Washington Agreement prohibits unscheduled gold sales of those signatories until 2004. England (BoE) has one more scheduled (previously) for this March worth 20 tonnes...a drop in the global bucket. Bundesbank's words the other day were hollow in every regard, and as Mr. Sinclair states will only serve to add strength to the 305 break....which will come as we continue down this path of global recession, kindling fear.
Because the encumbered CB gold is several times that of yearly production this is not an easy fix. Gold is not a typical fractional reserve entity, which is how it's been abused through strong dollar machinations. 'Repairs' require real gold, not the promisary notes (which btw are adding up) recieved thus far to postpone this reckoning.
There is no painless recourse for the irresponsible parties which played 'to the hilt' against the world's only store of true value. Now that devaluation of paper is sweeping the globe, the demand for real value (gold) is threatening their empires.
Natural market forces, screaming for higher POG, are being heard in ever increasing ways. The pressure is real, it's global and gaining momentum. Thanks to past policies of confinment, gold is going to be like a spring when it pops. As Mr. Sinclair states...."Gold may go much higher than I have been willing to consider".
When that occurrs is anyones guess. It might be triggered by one or several global eco-political calamities now upon us. What we all need to decide is simply this....
IS GOLD STILL CONSIDERED BY THE WORLD AT LARGE 'A SAFE HAVEN'?
If you believe it is, it's time to take a position in gold. Just too many triggers and too many people....and thanks to the poor policies of CBs and Bullion Banks, way too much explosive, self detonating gold.
Something has to give....higer POG, or obliteration from human memory (through CB announcements) gold as 'a store of value'. Place your bets...broke manipulators or global memory erradication?
RobotGuy
(2/22/02; 11:22:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 70608)
B.B> You crack me up! LOL
Black Blade
(2/22/02; 11:07:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 70607)
Gold Fields says gold can withstand central banks
http://www.forbes.com/business/global/newswire/2002/02/22/rtr521689.html
Snippit:
LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The gold market is more resilient to central bank sales than before, despite Germany hinting this week that it may sell some reserves, the chairman of South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd said on Friday. "We're in a business of long winters and short summers and this looks like the beginning of a new spring," Chris Thompson, told an analysts briefing.
Thompson said diminishing mine supplies and the gold price's recent break through a dismal long-term downtrend to two-year highs would give pause to central bankers considering offloading their stocks. "In a falling gold market the political decision to sell gold, particularly when the alternative is the U.S. dollar that might rise and give interest, it's an easy decision to make." "But in a rising gold market...it's a tough decision for the banks to do and it will be interesting to see if the Bundesbank will do that," Thomson added.
The metal's rise was fuelled by disillusioned equity investors, the fallout from the Enron collapse, Japanese investors seeking a safe haven from their country's economic crisis and indications that major gold producers were reversing their policy on previous bearish foward sales.
Black Blade: At least Chris Thompson is one of those Gold miner CEO's who believes in his companies product. Quite different from Gold short cockroaches Olypants of Barrick and Booby Goldsellforward of AngloGold. I have to admit that I am surprised at how resilient Gold has been in light of the gullible investing public hearing a litany of negative comments. We appear to have turned a corner. Now if only we get a bit more follow-through from Japanese savers as the April Fools deadline approaches.
Black Blade
(2/22/02; 10:46:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70606)
Gold sales set to be subjected to tighter constraints
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1030049-6094-0,00.html
Snippit:
LONDON The Bank of England's gold auction on March 5 will be its last until a pact capping major European central bank sales ends in 2004, when the banks are expected to jockey to unload more reserves into the market.
The Bundesbank's announcement this week that it may slowly sell some of its gold reserves from 2004, for assets generating higher returns, may provoke a scramble among banks previously loyal to gold to shed their holdings, analysts said.
The 1999 Washington Agreement set combined gold sales by the European Central Bank, its members, Switzerland, Sweden and Britain at 2000 tons and limited gold leasing volumes. With the deal nearly half way through, speculation has begun over whether it will be renewed as is, modified or abandoned.
Black Blade: The consensus is that the WA will be renewed at current levels. The last BoE auction is March 5th I believe.
jlfletc
(2/22/02; 09:47:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 70605)
Re: Gimme Shelter
I hear you.....Preparing for the worst financially is commendable, however it shouldn't be all that one does. I agree with Gimme Shelter and Black Blade in the sense that one should simultaneously be preparing for all contingencies by accumulation of PM, food, supplies, and yes, tools of defense. It might be a bit simplistic at times, but for a very detailed look at a financial collapse scenario, I highly recommend "Patriots" by James Wesley, Rawles. Check out Amazon to read customer reviews of this book, they're almost as entertaining as the book itself. Thanks to everyone here for all of the intelligent posts. This forum has become my second stop of the day. God Bless!
RobotGuy
(2/22/02; 09:28:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 70604)
=]
Doan' looks lyke imo git me a golden ainjel
JCF
(2/22/02; 08:57:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 70603)
E-BAY seller collects, then disappears
http://www.msnbc.com/news/713634.asp?pne=msn
Beware!
Gimme Shelter
(2/22/02; 07:38:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70602)
Cooked books and missing subjects
It would also behoove those paying attention to these fiasco firms, to monitor our leaders.
How convenient that when 9-11-01 happened, Greenspan was in Europe, Bush in a school in Floria, Cheney probably at Enron.
I just do not believe the powers to be are going to go down standing. They are after all the largest manipulaters the world has known.
Black Blade
(2/22/02; 07:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 70601)
Dollar Drops Against Euro, Yen on Speculative Selling
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020222/200202220915000265_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK -- The dollar dropped sharply against the euro and was also sliding against the yen in choppy trading Friday.
Black Blade: Also the FRN is devaluing against Gold again - now worth only 0.0033932 ounces!
Black Blade
(2/22/02; 07:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70600)
Europe in the Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Just before the NY open, Europe is in the red. Also, the USD is falling against most currencies. Market indices futures are up a little. Could be an "Interesting" day on Wall Street.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(2/22/02; 07:18:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70599)
Accounting Delays PG&E Earnings
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000013458feb22.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness
Snippit:
PG&E Corp. delayed announcing its earnings Thursday, citing accounting foul-ups with off-the-books financial vehicles. The echoes of Enron Corp. caused shares to tumble in early trading.
PG&E said it thinks that the financial vehicles, called "synthetic leases," used to keep three power plants and some electricity-generating turbines off its books, may not have had enough outside ownership under federal rules, which would require the San Francisco utility holding company to amend its financial statements back to 1999.
Black Blade: Yep, another one. Accounting scandals are popping up daily.
Black Blade
(2/22/02; 07:10:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 70598)
US to Reveal Details of New Chained CPI
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020222/business_economy_statistics_dc_1.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is to unveil details of what it's calling a ''supplemental'' consumer price index, a gauge the agency says will provide a better cost-of-living measure.
The index is to be called the ``chained CPI,'' and it's meant to tackle a long-standing problem. Some experts think the conventional CPI overstates inflation because consumers react to price changes among different goods. For example, a shopper may load up on apples if they fall enough in price compared with oranges.
Using a mathematical formulas and data on consumer spending, the chained CPI is meant to deal with that issue of ''substitution bias.'' The BLS expects the chained CPI to increase about 0.1 to 0.2 percent slower than the conventional CPI on annual basis. The regular CPI rose at only a 1.1 percent annual rate in 2001.
Black Blade: More "Monkey Business" at the BLS. I guess that they figure this way they can screw the elderly and disabled outta their Social Security COLA's. These crooks at the BLS are really something else. If you think "hedonic deflators" are bad now, wait until this is implemented.
nickel62
(2/22/02; 06:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 70597)
Head count
Roughly a hundred and ten of us put in guesses for the contest....God I hope that the world is listening to what is said here. The comming financial problems are going to make us awfully lonely if we are the only ones prepared.
nickel62
(2/22/02; 06:09:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70596)
Gold Standard
Your ounce of gold will purchase two tonnes of coffee when the dam breaks..OUT of the woodwork.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(2/22/02; 05:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 70595)
$14.95 (plus tax) at bookstores everywhere; order direct for only $5.95!! (plus $3 postage)
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
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Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
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