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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/22/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Elwood
(9/22/01; 23:43:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62194)
Test
Test
Netking
(9/22/01; 22:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62193)
Saudis change minds on U.S. support & 'Arab coalition' shows signs of fading away
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24633
Snippet:
"The United States has delayed its offensive against Afghanistan and Osama bi Laden because of a dramatic turnaround in Arab support, reports DEBKAfile, the private, subscription-only intelligence service.
With the fleeing of King Fahd to Switzerland last week, as reported in WorldNetDaily, there are signs of a split in the Saudi royal family on the use of Saudi soil by U.S. military forces. By this afternoon, it became clear Secretary of State Colin Powell's efforts to create an Arab front to bolster the Bush administration's world war on terror was faltering.
A palace revolution may be in the works in Riyadh, explaining King Fahd's secret exit from Saudi Arabia, followed by a large royal party. The reason? Differences in the royal family over support for the U.S. offensive against Afghanistan, Osama Bin Laden's terror network and other rogue targets following the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. King Fahd and his Sudeiri faction, including defense minister Sultan, were in favor of letting the U.S. place assault forces in forward bases on Saudi soil; the conservative, religious Crown Prince Abdullah, who runs the kingdom since King Fahd became ill, overruled him, backed by the religious establishment.
As a result, Saudi Arabia refused to let the U.S. use the kingdom's new combined air operations command center at Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh, after Air Force Lt. Gen Charles Wald had been dispatched to the base earlier this week, to take command of U.S. air forces assigned to the Middle East and Southwest Asia . . . . "
** More:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24615
** US War Offensive Delayed by Loss of Saudi Base - and Fading Away of Arab Coalition. Washington Hurriedly Hunts Bases of Operation for Lost Saudi Facilities in Turkey, Uzbekistan and Tadjikistan.
http://debka.com/
** U.S. May Be Refocusing on Iraq
http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109202000.htm
uponroof
(9/22/01; 22:27:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62192)
"As of October 15th, I am fixing the Price of Gold at 275 per oz." G.W. Bush
Relax.....it's not real
OK, I have this reoccurring nightmare. It's about POG capping. I'd love to hear from more intelligent folks here as to why this is 'out of the question' and not possible.
As each crisis laden day goes by and gold continues to reside at 290+- I can't help but see the desparation (and awesome power to control) of those short gold. Unfortunately this indicates it is every bit as bad as GATA portrayed it. The stakes are enormous. Before 'Strong Dollar' gold, POG would be an easy 400+ given these unnerving world conditions.
No question gold is now numero uno on the gummints short list of dangerous markets yet to cause an implosion.
Please consider this scenario and rebutt. I would greatly appreciate it:
If Bush/O'Neill can socialize airline and insurance industry losses, no reason they can't bail banks too. Will the distinction between 911 debt or prior be an issue? How about potential debt? I don't think so. Debt forgivness is politically correct right now as we fight for our standard of living. Popularity, even if an outcry erupts, is moot when up against a financial meltdown.
Especially moot if the 'bailout' is not really a payout per se, it's merely fixing the POG at (let's say) 275. American folks are into stocks and dollars, not into gold. No problem adjusting the POG thermometer to suit banking industry health in the USA. A presidential executive order under these crisis conditions (after a few more bombs go off) would sail through public opinion polls (just blame ol' Bin Laden).
However, the US would probably seek support from all friendly nations to create a complete world cap on POG lest a backdoor foreign detonated derivative bomb create havoc in the USA and world.
A G7-UN-USA concensus would start the movement to cap world POG. Of course not all would agree but I believe enough would to carry the order. This could also be disguised as a 'much needed' preliminary search for one world currency perhaps to coincide or take the place of the euro's debut on Jan 1st.
Of course those who protest would be fighting the leaders of the free world and become outcasts and isolationists. Would OPEC, China, or Russia challenge? I dunno. One hell of a poker game, if they do, that's for sure.
We are in an all or nothing battle. 'Too big to fail' applies to absolutely nothing these days...nothing. This ugly 'new world' war brewing is sure to increase in scope creating enough market uncertainty to bypass any fail safes leftover from previous old world standards. Risk/Fear is now everywhere.
Please forgive my negative thoughts. Things are happening quickly and outside of normal perimeters. Why should gold adhere to old world standards when the new world stakes are so high?
I just don't think they'll let POG do the damage they asked for and deserve (sure hope I'm wrong). There is no compromise, it's all or nothing. Too much water over the dams of hell to go back and try any form of gold linked currency. Much easier to outlaw what they cankered, and assign blame elsewhere (terrorists).
I know there are numerous gold scholars here. Please explore the possibility of official POG fixing in any form, not just my lame example, rebutt the principal in general if you would. Thoughts greatly appreciated.
jinx44
(9/22/01; 21:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62191)
Look ahead
If the current story is correct, the pro-American faction of the Saudi royal family has gone into temporary exile in Switzerland. This would suggest that US forces will not have SA bases to use in the coming retribution. This could be the start of the swing to euro-settlement for oil. Saudi backs away, Egypt has backed away, we are alone with the Jews in the ME. US Sanctions against India and Pakistan were lifted today in preparation for airspace and forward bases for external raids into Afghanistan. I think the Russians want us to join them in the Caucasus for an Afghan incursion. The Chinese are too quiet. They are biding their time for the moment when we are finally theater committed in the ME. They will jump the strait and take Taiwan. We can do nothing but continue in the ME. Oil will be a big swing variable, as will gold. The euro will blossom under the islamic decision to settle for oil there. Times will be tough without gold.
Chris Powell
(9/22/01; 20:37:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62190)
For R. Powell
Always lurking here, coz! Glad that those books are getting mailed out. GATA Chairman Bill Murphy thinks we're really, really, really, really close -- which is one more "really" than he thought we were a year ago. But I'm confident that we're a lot closer than we were. For the financial people who were denying manipulation of the gold market are now begging openly for it.
Tannehill
(9/22/01; 20:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 62189)
R Powell, slingshot/ silverbugs
None
Sir R Powell with all that said, (R Powell (9/22/01; 19:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 62184)
Let's go back to my orginal question, Since the US Mint is running out of silver and will have to buy more silver, from U.S. mines, anyone got any thoughts about which mines they might make a deal with? Will it be a long term contract arrangement? Or do they buy it from which every company comes first?
If we could figure out which mine they might buy from, at this time, a small stock purchase might be in order. Uncle Sam would be sure that this mine stays in business and makes money, much like the old Homestake mine was 'helped' back in the 30's. Everyone likes to think that goldstocks did well during the depression. That is true if you remember that the government was the only one that could buy their production, and propped up the price. So, which mining stock would be a likely target? More price supports coming from Uncle Sugar, err I mean Uncle Sam.... Would it have anything to do with a political payoff?
That's all from Tannehill, off to bed...
turkey hunter
(9/22/01; 20:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62188)
@ R Powell
I remember my dad buying a 1970 full size Chevy pickup in "72" He gave $1700 for it. Drove it until it had 173,000 miles on it and traded it off for a chevy 4 wheel drive. What caused the price increase to todays prices? Does the name "Tricky Dicky" say anything?. :)
It's kind of hard to tell what the price will be on cars and trucks in 5 years. Could be high or could be low. If things go on the same a new work truck might cost 50-70,000 dollars. I don't think things will go on the same myself. I believe we are at an end of an era.
Sure am glad I found out what was happening about a year and a half ago. Thanks to this website. I've tried to tell people what was coming with no success. I was talking to a lady the other day and she was telling me how her 401k was dwindling to nothing. I said why don't you diversify into gold coins. Her response "what am I going to do with gold".
Turkey Hunter
R Powell
(9/22/01; 20:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 62187)
Chris Powell
Cousin Chris, are you lurking?
Thanks for the "Rediscovering Gold in the 21st Century" which came in today's mail.
It's by Craig Smith and came as a response to my small donation to GATA.
Thanks, and hoping that the Judge takes us to discovery on October 9th!
Rich
R Powell
(9/22/01; 19:15:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 62186)
turkey hunter
I'm waiting for the low price, no interest loan and the cash back. Until then I'll drive my old 1984 Dodge (slant six) pickup. Bought with as few options as possible.
If only I could I'd get no power on anything including brakes, a small six engine and an eight foot bed. My first (1972)brandy new truck was $2200, the only extras were a radio (AM) and a heater. It gets damn cold here in New England in the winter. Awfully good truck it was too. They don't cost $2200 anymore. Why is that? What do you suppose they'll cost in 5 years?
Perhaps if they'd give the cash back in gold/silver coin form. How many silver eagles can I get for $6-8,000?
Rich
BR549
(9/22/01; 19:14:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62185)
Gold manipulated vs. The law of supply and demand that infers a free market system.
http://www.gata.org/turk.html
tedw (msg#: 62171)---"The law of supply and demand has never been repealed. Despite any alleged manipulation in the Gold market, the one thing that has kept gold prices low is low demand. Investors have not wanted it. The manipulation,if any, could suceed only because of this fact."
The law of supply and demand infers a free market system from Adam Smith until today. I think that traditional economics would confirm that you either have a free market for gold or a manipulated market—i.e., a free market cannot exist if supply is being manipulated by the banksters agents. The supply of gold around the world being produced is less than the demand each year (see GATA and others for proof). If said manipulation causes supplies of gold to be dumped on the world market after each price rise, then does that not drive down the POG? An analysis from last week equity price dive indicates that SM sellers consisted of the large institutions. The little fish still refuse to liquidate their equity based 401K's to buy gold because of the tax implications and the repeating drum beat in the media that the market has finally reached its bottom, so it would be stupid to get out now.
I suggest that you read James Turk's theory, if you have not already, (see link) for a little more insight into gold's manipulation.
Regards,
BR549
R Powell
(9/22/01; 19:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 62184)
Tannehill/ slingshot/ silverbugs
From the World Silver Survey, concerning government stocks of silver.
"Net sales out of government stocks came to 74.7 Moz in 2000."
The WSS estimates 58Moz of this was from China. Recently we have heard this may be the resale of reclaimed silver as opposed to dishoarding. 74.7 Moz minus 58Moz from China leaves 16.7 Moz from where?
WSS again, "The bulk of the remaining official sales in 2000 were from the United States. Most, if not all, of this silver came out of the stockpile maintained by the Defence Logistics Agency (DLA), which has now been reduced to minimal levels."
Indeed, we read that the DLA forwarded the last 13 Moz to the mints last Spring. However, these numbers are hard to confirm. From the WSS again,
"Unfortunately, the information released by the government agencies involved is somewhat equivocal. Nevertheless, indications are that 13 M oz was used by the Mint in 2000 and that all of this came from government stocks."
This, I believe, depleted U.S. government silver stores and will force the Mint to enter the markets soon. Spokesmen for the Mint have declined to give any timeframe as to this buying claiming that they do not want to disturb market prices. The BOE might take a lesson on marketing here!
The WSS guesstimates total world official bullion holdings at 278 Moz, mostly by European governments in coin form which could go to the melting pot after the successful introduction of the Euro.
There is more info in the WSS but it all must be taken with some scepticism as transparency in the world of silver is even worse than that of gold. A lot of this is caused by the fact that 75% of new yearly mining supply comes as a by-product of lead, copper, zinc and gold mining and, as such, its quantity is poorly recorded. It is also often dumped on the market with no regard to market prices. This too will change when the secondary refined product becomes more valued. IMHO, of course.
I also think that the Mint's entrance into the marketplace will NOT go unnoticed. A spark for dry tinder!
Rich
Tannehill
(9/22/01; 18:58:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62183)
(No Subject)
Sir Slingshot @msg#: 62179
You asked: "With the increase of Spot Price what would be the formula to use to determine a fair price of a Gold or Silver coin?"
A formula will not always be applicable, Watch dealer buy/sell prices, markup and spreads vary as you probably know.
Tannehill
BR549
(9/22/01; 18:22:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62182)
Arrests in 6 different countries of potential murderers brings US terror fears a lot closer to home
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,34904,00.html
"Arrests in Belgium and England are the latest resulting from an intense terrorist investigation throughout America and Europe in the wake of the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon Sept. 11.
Belgian investigators found bomb-making chemicals Saturday in the apartment of a Tunisian man suspected of having connections with a radical Egyptian Islamic organization linked to Afghanistan-based groups.
The 220 pounds of sulfur and 13 gallons of acetone were found in an apartment above a North African fast-food restaurant in central Brussels late Thursday, said Laure Wynands, a spokeswoman for the prosecutor's office."
turkey hunter
(9/22/01; 18:22:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62181)
@R Powell auto dealers must be hurting
Our local GM dealer went on TV and is advertising new 2001-2002 GM vehicles with no interest for 60 months. Never heard anything like that before! Turkey Hunter
R Powell
(9/22/01; 18:21:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 62180)
E-mail letter to family and friends
My letter is intended for those who don't possess the knowledge that most have here. Indeed, many of the thoughts expressed had their origin here, but it's not a bad summary of what we see happening.
Any and all feedback welcome. But please don't throw rocks!
The tragedy of the WTC destruction, while an outrageous horror, was not the cause of the stock market crash. It was only the catalyst that precipitated and accelerated the decline. I expect some market "dead cat" bounces but these will be sold into by mutual funds and insiders at the expense of the small (patriotic?) investor. The cheerleaders on the peoples stock market television channel, CNBC, will continue to facilitate this transfer of money.
The exact timing and depth of market fall, as defined by the composite index numbers, is impossible to predict but, that the decline will continue has been assured by those policies which were instituted during the period of "irrational exuberance", the 1990s. If forced to guess, I would stick with Dow 4-6000 and Nasduck 500 that were my guesstimates a year ago.
What has changed since I last wrote?
Deficit spending has returned. There never was a surplus! It's existence was all an illusion created by the government and the Bureau of Labor Statistics and further enhansed by political smoke and mirror lying. But don't worry, the government will negate the deficit along with a great deal of government, corporate and consumer debt by awakening our old friend inflation. The process is already underway. Remember, inflation is the increase of the monetary supply. The rise of the costs of goods and services is the result of inflation although often refered to as inflation itself. There has never been a fiat monetary system that has not been forced to inflate itself .All fiat money is created by debt which can only be paid with more debt. This is inherent in our system.
So what Rich, a little inflation is not new?
No, it is a constant. However, the USA has been exporting debt for more than a decade until our manufacturing industry has all but disappeared and our annual trade deficit has approached $400 Billion. We have obtained the world's goods, paid for with greenbacks (debt) which will return soon to be presented as the IOUs that they truly are. Estimates of 7 Trillion US dollars are presently owned by foreigners. What happens when this money comes home and not as further Nasduck bubble inflating investment but as IOUs looking to buy tangible assets in a hurry as the value of the US dollar is crashing? Now, add the present political situation of war. Does war cause inflation? Does nonproductive spending of money increase or decrease the GDP?
The only equity sector that has gained year to date is that of precious metals mining. Oh no, Rich, don't start on that gold and silver stuff again! Okay. Just one question. If inflation raises the price of a loaf of bread to ten dollars, will it still be a loaf of bread? A pound of silver will still be a pound of silver after inflation raises the price of everything. It will not have changed but the value of the dollar will have changed, the dollar will have devalued severely. Surprisingly, the immediate near term may bring Deflation, but this will be, in my opinion, a short lived situation. Inflation will follow and the dollar will lose value in comparison to tangible assets. But don't store the value of your life's earnings in real estate!! Real estate values will crash soon after the debt bubble bursts. What does that leave for safe haven??
Words to listen for in the coming weeks, margin call, fund redemptions, investor capitulation, dead cat bounce, market panic and of course the tearful analysts' sobs at the end of the day, "It wasn't so much that there were too many sellers, there just were no buyers".
As always, I hope I'm wrong, or at least overstating the case but, with the passing of time, I become more and more convinced that these things will come to pass. And soon!
Hope all is well with all
Rich Powell
slingshot
(9/22/01; 17:57:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 62179)
Tannehill Msg#62178
Coin Collectors
It is the favorite hobby of many to collect Silver and Gold coin currency. . Coin condition and scarcity has in the past been the most influencial on price. With the increase of Spot Price what would be the formula to use to determine a fair price of a Gold or Silver coin? I would be looking at About uncir/Brilliant uncir. coins in common dates. I am afraid that the price will be, "What the market will bare".
Slingshot
Tannehill
(9/22/01; 17:16:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 62178)
Sir Slingshot
Since they sold thousands of silver dollars in either the late 60's or 70's, I doubt they have much in the way of coinage left.
slingshot
(9/22/01; 17:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 62177)
Silver Coins/Government
I wonder if the government still has any Silver Coinage to melt before going to the mines/market?
Slingshot
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 17:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62176)
Gold begins unstoppable run to $600 an ounce
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGCurve.nsf/Current/8525686A00324CF585256A68004F0B5F?OpenDocument
Snippit:
The gold cabal is responsible for creating a bullion pressure cooker and we should not be sorry for them when it all comes tumbling down. I say gold may be going to $600, but that is only after it settles down. The mad scramble for metal will unleash price increases that make California's energy price hikes look tame by comparison. We could eventually be paying thousands of dollars for one ounce and won't we be glad that we bought at $255 an ounce?
The hedged gold producers will also get what they deserve. They have undermined the gold price by selling their own product forward. That is the most foolish thing to do, but it is better for the unhedged producers who will come in and scoop up these dying firms. These companies will have to deliver into their hedge books like Ashanti and Cambior, but they cannot do it. They are slaves to the bullion banks and the criminal masterminds behind global fiat currencies.
Black Blade: Quite the impassioned editorial. Interesting nonetheless. I do agree that the Gold Producers that sell forward are about to "face the music."
Tannehill
(9/22/01; 16:54:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62175)
Idle spectulation on Future Silver purchases
Since the US Mint is running out of silver and will have to buy more from U.S. mines, anyone got any thoughts about which mines they might make a deal with? Will it be a long term contract arangement? Or do they buy it from which every company comes first?
slingshot
(9/22/01; 16:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 62174)
Piddily Report. ATTENTION BLACK BLADE
Over a period of time there has been an increase in sales of
silver and gold at your local Coin Dealers. The information in the News will only add to the buying as the preparation for war continues with no set time for execution.
Could you compare Desert Storm to what could happen now?
The reports of Coin Dealers being out of PM's ( as in my case), firmly points that physical demand is there and supply will not keep up,(order time to restock)
In my neck of the woods we have Flea Markets (open air markets), with a few part time coin dealers. They buy from the regular Coin Dealers and sell at the market. They are asking
a FINE PREMIUM!. Those who failed to prepare will pay dearly.
There is going to be plenty of first time PM buyers.
Editors Note. To all the lurkers and Small Time Investors who have visited this forum. You have to admit we have the jump on what could be an explosion in PM's. IMHO.
Thanks MK,R and all who post here at USAGOLD.
The Piddily Report
All the News so Piddily others don't print it.
Usul
(9/22/01; 15:58:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62173)
Bone Piles
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
I commend Forbes' sensitivity in renaming their page to "Layoff Tracker Update", which they have done following the recent tragic events in New York.
Some of the job cuts have gone unreported because they were foreign workers who don't get counted in US statistics, once they were "surplus to requirements". Even so, in recent weeks, the number at the above mentioned web page has clearly risen at an alarming rate, as our esteemed Black Blade keeps our attention focused on it.
Meanwhile the Dow logs its worst week of losses since the Great Depression- war beckons- surely the value of gold as a safe haven is indisputable?
tedw
(9/22/01; 15:25:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62172)
Gold for delivery
http://www.usagold.com
Perhaps our hosts can explain if Gold can be bought from them with delivery sent directly to a local bank,until it can be put in a safe deposit box.
If so, by what means is delivered (courier?), and what would be the additional cost.
tedw
(9/22/01; 14:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62171)
Simple truths
http://www.usagold.com
Most truth is simple and self-evident.
The law of supply and demand has never been repealed. Despite any alleged manipulation in the Gold market, the one thing that has kept gold prices low is low demand. Investors have not wanted it. The manipulation,if any, could suceed only because of this fact.
Well, time is changing things in our field of vision, as always happens. Investors are scared of the stock market. Bonds have 0 rate of return or maybe less when you factor in inflation. The investment dollar will go somewhere.
I have done an exceedingly unscientific survey with investors of my acquaintance. Some are now considering gold where just a few short months ago they would not.
Mathematically the equation looks like this:
Increased demand+falling bond prices+crashing stock market+ war= Increased price of Gold.
Ted W
Professor
School of Hard Knocks
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 14:39:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 62170)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" grows over 730,000 souls. Counting small businesses and those already unemployed it is well over 3.5 million and rising.
RE: R Powell - Ditto on that. I like your idea. When you get to the Caymans I say we get together an go fishing for Blue Marlin and then Tarpin and Bonefish. Later we can sip frozen adult beverages and watch the bikinis on the beach. Cheers!
R Powell
(9/22/01; 14:29:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 62169)
Black Blade
There is an Isuzu dealer in this neighborhood advertising no downpayment on new vehicles plus $6,000 to $8,000 cash back depending on which car/truck one buys.
He's not advertising an interest rate or the number of payments but I did wonder if he'd sell me a few hundred vehicles and forward my cash back total to an account in the Caymans. After I'm safely there (or somewhere unknown!) I'll ask him to sell the vehicles for cheap and forward the sale proceeds.
If the World Gold Council were serious about promoting gold they should be promoting "cash back" deals in physical metal form. The company you mentioned, General Motors, made 70% of its second quarter profits this year from financing- GMAC- not from producing vehicles. I believe vehicles will be less expensive in a few months. But gold and silver will not be, IMHO, of course.
Rich
Shermag
(9/22/01; 14:16:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62168)
War is Not Necessarily Bullish
Lately, it seems, we have been inundated with Wall Street's latest chant that "war is bullish". Citing the Gulf war, and Pearl Harbor as two relevant examples, they are offered as excellent guidance for what lies ahead. In those two instances, we are told, the market swooned under a panicky sell-off that lasted several months, only to subsequently soar in a new multi year bull market. We are told to expect the same again.
The reasoning to support this phenomenon is simple, they say. War begets spending in the buildup and deployment of military action. This economic stimulus jolts the economy out of recession, elevating profits and therefore the stock markets. Further, the argument goes, the stock market anticipates this in advance and leads the economic liftoff.
Don't count on it. There are some important distinctions between those times and now that cannot be ignored.
Pearl Harbor came on the heels of a restorative process that purged the excesses that were built up in the twenties. The decade long healing cured an excess debt and savings deficit problem. The malinvestments of the roaring twenties by then had been atoned for. Americans had rebuilt their savings. We have barely begun this process following what arguably is a much greater malinvestment bubble than ever existed in the twenties.
From another perspective, two market yardsticks of the time were vastly different than they are now. The current S&P P/E of 26 is greatly higher than 1941's level of 8. Likewise, The stock market capitalization as a percent of GDP now at 120% compares with that of 1941 of 20%.
Turning to our more recent experience with the Gulf War, although the P/E of 16 and market cap/GDP of 90% were higher than 41, they were considerably lower than today's numbers. Further, we are now in the post burst phase of the great bubble, as opposed to being at a lead in point in 91.
It is imprudent at best to divorce the market from the underlying fundamentals currently at play in the US economy. Such phenomena as the current rapid collapse of corporate profits, and the unprecedented consecutive monthly declines manufacturing, for just two examples, do not forebode a growing economy.
To quote Jim Grant "War is inflationary. It is always wasteful, no matter how just the cause. It is cost without income, destruction financed (more often than not) by credit creation. It is the essence of inflation. The war against terrorism ... already threatens more regulation, more security, more expense unrequited by income."
This is an unlikely launching point for another bull market. As Bill Bonner likes to say, perhaps investors will get what they deserve rather than what they expect.
Shermag
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 14:04:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62167)
Norilsk plans to withhold metals
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,932593-6094-0,00.html
Group says it is not interested in delivering to spot market
Snippit:
NORILSK Nickel, the world's leading supplier of palladium, is aiming to withhold supplies of platinum group metals from the market until it sees greater stability of demand and price. Yury Kotlyar, CE of Norilsk Nickel Mining Company, one of the units in the Norilsk Nickel group said yesterday "we are not interested in (delivering to) the spot market now. We would like to see things get more stable first." Ivanov said: "There is no obligation for Norilsk Nickel to start spot market sales now, the same as there is no obligation not to sell. It's a matter of a managerial decision based on the market situation."
Black Blade: Very little if any PGM supply is left in Russia anyway. Who needs PGMs when auto sales are next to nonexistent. GM now offers 60 month terms at "No Interest" on new auto sales. Now that is desperation!
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 13:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 62166)
Gold shines on stock market plunge
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B8BC47274%2DFBBA%2D4EBB%2D9369%2D3DC92968AEB3%7D
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures climbed to a one-week high near $300 an ounce Friday, lifting a key metals index to a 15-month zenith in early trading, but most metals shares pulled back following sharp gains over the past week. "The (gold) equities seem to be taking their lead from the commodity, which has now given back most of its early gains," said Robert Doyle, a gold analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston.
Black Blade: PM investments have kept my portfolio from sinking into oblivion. I watch as friends wail over their losses and shrinking IRA's.
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 13:41:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62165)
Gold Set to Shoot Up on U.S. Retaliation
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010920/bs/markets_gold_dc_1.html
Snippit:
LONDON (Reuters) - Gold stood poised to shoot higher should Washington launch swift retaliation and send investors scrambling for the safety of the solid asset, analysts in Europe said on Thursday. But analysts say swift and sharp retaliation could push bullion prices through barriers at $295 and $300. - gold could push higher, to between $325 and $340 an ounce.
Black Blade: Gold could push much higher than that. The Global Economy is in the toilet and about to be flushed.
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 13:33:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 62164)
Boom In US Demand For Gold Coins In Wake Of Attacks
http://news.ino.com/intraday/?storyid=DJN616564904
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--While the price of gold has disappointed some traders by not rising further on the financial and political uncertainty arising from last week's terrorist attacks, physical demand for bullion coins has skyrocketed in recent days. "Retail demand is through the roof," Frank McGhee, a dealer at Alliance Financial LLC in Chicago, said. "I want them, I want them in my possession, I want to bury them in the backyard,'" is the overriding sentiment by small investors who, for the most part have, haven't shown much interest in the coin market in recent years, he explained.
Black Blade: I stopped by a local coin shop yesterday just to see what response there was to recent events. The proprietor was not there, however, someone else was watching the store. She said that business was non-stop, and that the owner was gone to get more gold and silver. She said that all the gold and silver left was what was in the case. It was much less than I had seen in the past. Looks like a big run on bullion and coin. It should surge more as the Global Economy collapses and the US goes into Afghanistan to face the same enemy that defeated the Soviet Union.
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 13:19:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62163)
Northwest Air to Cut 10,000 Jobs
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010921/bs/attacks_northwest_7.html
Snippit:
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Northwest Airlines plans to cut 10,000 jobs, or 19 percent of its work force, becoming the latest major carrier to slash its payroll in the wake of last week's terrorist attacks.
Black Blade: "Bone Pile" grows.
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 13:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62162)
Tough Times Seen for Labor Market
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010922/business_attack_economy_unemployment_dc_1.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Tough times loom for the already weakening U.S. labor market after last week's attacks on the United States, but analysts say government spending programs to stimulate the economy, if passed, would likely make that suffering short-lived. With nearly 100,000 layoff announcements made over the past week in the aviation industry alone, and confidence fast eroding among businesses and consumers, the employment picture over the next several months will likely be dismal.
Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" will grow much higher as the Airlines layoff, followed by support industries, and the effects ripple through ancillary industries and beyond. The weakening earnings picture will continue to take a toll on most other industries leading to even greater numbers of layoffs. The "Bone Pile" is still very small but will continue to grow exponentially. The Global Economy is toast as this Global Recession deepens. We live in "Interesting Times."
Netking
(9/22/01; 13:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62161)
US planes land in ex-Soviet bases - Russia keen for membership of NATO?
http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/article.html?s=asia/headlines/010923/world/afp/US_planes_land_in_ex-Soviet_bases_for_possible_Afghan_attack.html
US warplanes have landed in the former Soviet republic of Uzbekistan as Russian President Vladimir Putin, after an extended silence, voiced readiness to cooperate with US plans to strike Afghanistan -- but only after they are approved by the UN Security Council.
Uzbek military sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP on Saturday that the US jets were stationed just outside the Uzbek capital Tashkent and were equipped with surveillance devices, presumably aimed at Afghanistan's ruling Taliban militia just to the south. . . .
". . . . this does not mean that we cannot discuss such questions together with our partners, think about the possible reaction to the terrorist acts," said Putin in remarks aired nationwide on Moscow television on Saturday.
Putin said Russia's possible level of participation would be decided "based on the level and character of our partnership with the US and NATO."
These comments coincided with those recently made by senior Russian officials, who claim to have Putin's ear, who in private said that Moscow would be willing to offer its full cooperation in a new US war should Russia be accepted as a member of NATO . . . "
Belgian
(9/22/01; 13:04:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62160)
@ cwa #62155 - Derivatives Monster !
It is the " financial brotherhood ", that decides on Presidents, who has been allowed to organise this Monster.
They are * Untouchable * per definition, and will be bailed out (if possible) in exchange for other services provided by the indicated privileged. No, I'm not seeing ghosts or looking for ocult forces. It is all within the "system".
11 Sept.01, is one kind of imponderabile, that risked, to mobilize extern forces (the public) in an uncontrollable, panic-move of substance. These are the one and only dangers that the financial brotherhood is running, against their pré-knowledge of major financial threathening moves.
As I said before...why isn't there (yet) any kind of concerted campaign to mobilize the masses into the accumulation of Gold ? A very normal act during hard times for Gold. It was done succesfully for diamonds.
The answer "why", it is not done, has everything to do with that particular part of the derivative monster, that is involved in the POG and its reasons behind it.
It only takes a fistfull of dollars for any hedgefund, to organize a Goldrush, of such a kind, that the main public is lured massively into that market. The physical Goldmarket is so minuscule that the amount of money that should be taken away from other gambling-vehicules, is totally insignificant. So far it has not been allowed to happen, because it is utterly inopportune to do so !
" Investment " has (socially) degradaded to "gambling" for all. It just happens to be that way. As so many other fashions came and disappeared. In earlier days, it were the Bessies that sponsored the ones that had to serve as collateral for assured, financial succes, without risks.
That's how fortunes are made and multiplied. Not by hard and pure honest work.
We are lucky to have history on our side, with so many examples of bursting bubbles. Natural elements will cause the public sheep, to stampede, at a very given moment in time. The ultimate imponderabile. Nobody is able to line out these fatal danger points
for the totality of the derivatives. We will see it when we get there. We have an idea about the scale and magnitude of the derivatives, but cannot present evidence for how dangerous they exactly are. Only by looking at what kind of defense is mobilzed to avoid collapse...we may guess the magnitude of the danger. Interest rates must have everything to do with that kind of preventive defense and nothing at all with economical fundamentals.
Am aware that most here are aware of this, but as a student, I have to finetune my thoughts constantly.
Black Blade
(9/22/01; 12:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62159)
Biggest weekly loss since the Great Depression in the 1930s
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010921/business_markets_stocks_dc_14.html
Stocks Dive, Closing Historical Week
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks slumped on Friday, with blue chips chalking up their biggest weekly loss since the Great Depression in the 1930s on growing fears over a worsening U.S. economy and a long war on terrorism after last week's deadly attacks. ``Right now, there are just falling knives everywhere,'' said Dirk van Dijk, who helps manage $4.5 billion for C.H. Dean & Associates. ``Who the hell wants to step in front of a freight train? On Monday we did some buying. Clearly we were premature.''
Black Blade: Again, the story is that the rebound in the early going on Wall Street was that only corporations were buying back shares and everyone else selling. The outlook remains very "Grim." There is no positive news. I heard a morning radio program out of Denver and several guests were touting "Buy - Be Patriotic" "Buy For the Long Term," and "We Are at a Bottom." These Pied Pipers would have you and everyone else throwing away cash trying to "catch falling knives."
auspec
(9/22/01; 12:48:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 62158)
sector
"There really can't be a bailout of JPMC since it is the Fed's bank."
Sir, that is quite the sobering statement, no?
sector
(9/22/01; 12:12:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 62157)
@cwa JPMC Derivatives Bailout?
There really can't be a bailout of JPMC since it is the Fed's bank. The taxpayers would foot the 300 billion bill for Alan Greenspan's and his banker pal's speculation. Not exactly popular in a wartime enviornment.
The inflationary spiral...coming to a street corner near you.
Interstate
(9/22/01; 10:33:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 62156)
Turkey Hunter
The link worked and was very informative for me. Thank you very much. Yes, I hope that war will be remembered this week by Israel's neighbors.
cwa
(9/22/01; 10:20:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62155)
The JPM Derivatives Monster
http://www.eionews.addr.com/psyops/news/jpm_derivatives_monster.htm
snip
"Please prove me wrong, but I think the world's top banks will be let off the hook on the gold and other derivatives losses that are now inevitable."
Interesting reading.
got gold?
cwa
apollo's golden chariot
(9/22/01; 09:57:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 62154)
Who are our allies?
In today's braodcast of John McLaughlin's public television interview with Frank Zobby and former US ambassador to NATO Hunter, the latter spoke of the meed for coordinated action in addressing the probelm of international terrorism by the US's allies Britain and France. He did this twice during the broadcast. No mention of Germany.
Does this suggest some perception that Germany did not take appropriate preventive actions against the numerous German based groups that attacked New York's World Trade Center??
Was this attack intended to preciptate some type of dollar crisis along the lines that Another and FOA have longed predicted on this board???
turkey hunter
(9/22/01; 09:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62153)
@Interstate
http://ln.infoplease.com/ce6/history/A0856669.html
The 1973–74 War (The Yom Kippur War)It has been tried before. Hope the link works for you. Turkey Hunter
sourdough
(9/22/01; 09:43:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 62152)
(No Subject)
http://www.stratfor.com
U.S. Measures May Incite Domestic Terror
2300 GMT, 010921
Summary
In the wake of terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, the U.S. government is moving quickly to create a new Cabinet-level agency for homeland defense and ease restrictions on law enforcement agencies. But while these measures may prove effective against foreign attacks, they may also lead to increased domestic terrorism.
Analysis
In a televised State of the Union address Sept. 20, U.S. President George W. Bush announced the creation of a new Cabinet-level agency designed to "lead, oversee and coordinate" a national strategy to guard the United States against terrorism. Congress meanwhile is considering new laws to ease restrictions on wiretapping and eavesdropping.
These new measures may be necessary components to protect the United States from further attacks by foreign terrorists. But they will also likely fuel the fears and anger of domestic groups such as the Michigan Militia or the North American Volunteer Militia. In time, as the U.S. security apparatus looks for threats coming from outside the country, the United States may again face attacks from within.
More than 800 militia-style groups existed at the peak of the anti-government movement in the mid-1990s, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center. The number has decreased dramatically in the past five years, thanks to a combination of a strong economy and heavy pressure from law enforcement agencies in the wake of the Oklahoma City bombing. The SPLC now identifies only 194 "Patriot" groups that were active in 2000.
Generally Patriot groups define themselves as opposed to the "New World Order" or advocate extreme anti-government doctrines, fearing the growth of government bureaucracies and intrusion upon civil liberties. Such groups are likely to enjoy a resurgence in interest, membership and activities as the government adopts more stringent security measures.
U.S. lawmakers historically have been very cautious about tipping the balance between law enforcement and civil liberties. It took Congress nearly a year to pass former U.S. President Bill Clinton's anti-terrorism bill after the 1998 bombings of two U.S. embassies in East Africa. In the weeks before the recent terror attacks, privacy advocates hailed a major victory when a San Diego judge banned the use of automatic cameras to catch cars driving through red lights.
But the attacks in New York and Washington have dramatically altered much of the nation's thinking, as many Americans are beginning to place a greater value on security. This shift is reflected in the federal government.
The newly announced Office of Homeland Security, to be headed by Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, is aimed at knitting together counter terrorism functions now scattered across more than 40 federal agencies, including the FBI, CIA, National Guard and local police and firefighting forces. It will focus not only on preventing terrorist attacks but also on fortifying potential targets by developing plans to protect the nation's transportation, power and food systems, according to officials cited by the Associated Press.
The "Mobilization Against Terrorism Act" still under consideration in Congress would rewrite laws dealing with wiretapping, eavesdropping and immigration. Included in the bill are provisions to ease the restrictions the FBI faces on installing its Carnivore Internet-surveillance system as well as streamlining procedures to obtaining voicemail recordings.
Further provisions include eliminating the statue of limitations for terrorism-related crimes and allowing federal authorities to detain without a court order non-U.S. citizens suspected of involvement in terrorist activities. Also under consideration is a modification to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to make it easier for prosecutors in certain highly sensitive cases to look through the records of a business, credit card company or Internet provider.
Fewer restrictions on law enforcement agents and the creation of a new federal office may be necessary steps to protect the United States from foreign terrorists. But powerful bureaucracies and narrowed civil liberties are exactly the sort of triggers that set off militia groups.
We are likely to see a resurgence of militia group activity just at the time that law enforcement agencies are retasking themselves to counter foreign threats. Even if law enforcement agents continue to infiltrate militia groups, it is much more difficult to monitor and prevent activity from individuals. As militia ranks fill, it is not unlikely to expect some of them to resort to the same kind of armed activity as Timothy McVeigh and Ted Kaczynski did in the past.
sourdough
(9/22/01; 09:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62151)
(No Subject)
(SINGAPORE) Worries about an imminent US counter-strike against terrorists powered the Swiss franc to yet another day of strong gains, but a whole range of currencies took at least indirect hits from unrelenting demand for the Japanese yen.
Meanwhile, the local STI stock index's fall by a massive 5.5 per cent on the day kept the US dollar above S$1.74 to end 0.2 per cent better at S$1.7432 at the Asian close.
Players reported a distinct stepping-up in yen purchases ahead of a Tokyo holiday on Monday next week - which hit the Australian dollar especially hard for the fifth day in a row.
Compared to where it stood before the terrorist attacks of Sept 11, the US dollar has nose-dived about 6.8 per cent to 1.5734 Swiss francs, 3 per cent to 116.45 yen, and also given up 2 per cent to 92.32 US cents per euro. But it has also gained an impressive 5 per cent to 48.68 US cents per Australian dollar, and 4 per cent to 9,440 Indonesian rupiah.
Another sharp overnight fall on Wall Street had actually pressed the greenback to a new seven-month low of 115.85 yen in overnight trading.
This was followed swiftly by what is at least a third round of announced US dollar purchases from Japanese authorities - which at first carried the US unit back above 117 yen.
But, after hitting an intra-day low of 117.50 yen per US dollar, the yen was again off to the races versus a whole range of what have been the usual Japanese investor favourites by the European open yesterday.
At the Asian close, the US dollar had sustained an overnight loss of 0.6 per cent to 116.42 yen. But the euro, sterling pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar had all sustained even heftier losses of at least one per cent versus the yen - the latter two in fact ended weaker by at least 2 per cent each, at 56.62 yen and 47.23 yen respectively.
The Sing dollar's 0.2 per cent gain against the US dollar meant that the euro slipped 0.3 per cent to S$1.6067, the pound sterling lost 0.4 per cent to S$2.5419 and the Australian dollar had slipped 1.2 per cent to 84.77 Singapore cents.
All told, however, what's been seen so far represents a far from complete picture of what lies ahead in a volatile and uncertain future.
Analysts say those with foreign currency assets should at least move to a more neutral position versus the US dollar - by hedging US dollar assets with offsetting positions in a less volatile currency like the euro.
One starting point is to consider leaving orders to pick the latter up if it corrects back to pre-Sept 11 levels of around S$1.5750 to S$1.58.
Interstate
(9/22/01; 08:41:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62150)
Yom Kippur
Yom Kippur (holiest of Jewish days) is next Wednesday at sundown and all day Thursday. Would Iraq or another country use this day to insult Israel by launching an attack on them? Any comments? Especially from Jewish posters. Just a thought. Interstate
auspec
(9/22/01; 07:55:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62149)
To BigFloat....
....from gold and silver:
Sorry, {nearly} no room in the Inn.
We can house only a few,
first come-first served.
Belgian
(09/22/01; 06:46:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 62148)
Stockmarket / USTB-30 yrs / €><$
Long-term SM-index-charts are showing a decline pattern that is the mirror-image of the previous ascend. The mania will be corrected with an analog pattern and the bottom can only be reached as soon as it becomes possible to have some * reliable * profit projections. At present, my, valuation trick is the following : half the present projected optimistic EPS and multiply by 8, being a bottom P/E. Dow/Nas/SP500, still have to halve from here imvvvvho.
In contrast to what the tele talking heads screamed yesterday on Tripple witching : This is not the long awaited capitulation phase but only the acceptance phase of the whole story. (denial-acceptance-capitulation)
That's why USTB30yrs and $/€ brother are still in a non-directionless phase. An old valuation measure is the following : P/E are considered, reasonable as they correspond with the 100: interest rate (10 yrs), coincide. 100:4%= 25 P/E.
A weakening dollar shall inevitably be countered with increasing I.R.s...and consequently, declining P/E, accepted as reasnonably justified .
It corresponds with Droke's Gold-bottoming-cycle. Yesterday's POG move 290$ >>> 295$, was in line with the optimists. Gold Fields an AU, made substantial (significant) volume yesterday, though with no price-move.
Physical Gold in euros is holding strong and has an upward bias.
The longer it takes for the $/€ pattern to base...the swifter and more substantial the next move will be !
As we already know by now...the golden clock, just ticks time in our favor. It must be somewhat around a quarter to midnight...spooky time.
Belgian
(9/22/01; 04:47:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62147)
@Auspec@Henri@Netking
1/ Sorry for the delayed answer, due to some net-difficulties yesterday. #62087 : Yes friendly Sir, I do make mistakes (mis-interpretations) = american cartoons.
Am too lazy to do re-reads and give correction a chance. Impulses...and so much content, provided here, that my little hairy ball on my shoulders, gets overheated. But, please do keep on correcting me as I see it as a great honor.
Your Toulouse-accident (explosion in France) conclusions are understandable but inaccurate. It was an accident and not an act of terror, wich could have been very possible, giving the large moslim community, living in France. And here you have one of the fundamental reasons why Europ and France in particular is very, very prudent in its attitudes versus islam/muslims/arabs ! The same goes for Germany with a very large amount of Turkisch citizens and Turkey being a future EMU member. So, keep this in mind, when considering EMU as US coalition partner, in the battle against, muslim-terror! etc...of course.
Henri #62095 : On commercial fusion power : please, do not forget that "crude oil" is much, much more than a source of energy ! It is the mother-fluid of many essential derivates.
And therefore much, much more important than the (eventual) replaceble (alternative) energy aspect of it ! Maybe B.B. can give us some estimates on the procentual proportion energy/chemistry ?
Netking (Israel/war): Think that state to state (conventional) war-declarations are out of fashion ? There is too much (modern) focus on the economical implications of such an old fashioned drama. Colin Powel (moderate-?) is indicating that political pressure might be the weaponary of today. You cannot screen all possible murderers and go out to kill them as a prevention to further atrocities.
Economical decline is contributing to an increasing danger for violence. Simple Law of human nature as old as mankind.
Just guessing (hoping) of course, and w'll humbly have to wait and see.
Simply Me
(9/22/01; 03:54:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62146)
Thanks!
To Henri, Netking, R. Powell and all who have sent or will send their warm wishes for grandbaby Georgia....Thank you very kindly.
So much to sort out between the new state of war in the country and the new configuration of my family. I think I'll just watch and consider things for awhile.
I'll be lurking,
Simply Granny
The Invisible Hand
(9/22/01; 03:28:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 62145)
WW III ?
How you do that with the Pentagon in ashes?
Netking
(9/22/01; 00:57:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62144)
Israel Quietly Prepares For War
http://debka.com/
Quietly, the government of Israel has shifted to preparing for national emergency war preparations following President Bush's speech to the US Congress on Thursday. Civilian airfields have been closed to civilian air traffic; El Al was ordered to quietly transfer some of its planes to the control of military authorities; hospitals have been warned to expect heavy casualties and to make the necessary preparations. Strategic supplies are being moved to underground shelters. Israel is also preparing drone aircraft capable of carrying either a chemical or biological payload in the event of an attack on the Jewish state by Iraq . . . and the planet continues to prepare for World War Three.
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