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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/22/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

auspec (11/22/01; 22:25:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65760)
M & A's
Bob Bishop recently wrote that he believes this 'possible' {my word} merger of FN, Newmont and Normandy is the biggest thing to hit the gold market since he has been involved in resources, some 20 years. That means a great deal to me simply because he knows the participants much better than I ever could. It has often been repeated that FN has the best management in the business, but I have not in the past had much of a handle on Newmonts philosophy or management. Normandy's management needs to take early retirement, imho. It now appears Franco and Newmont actually might wear white hats! I will be most interested to see WHO composes the board of directors of the end resulting Newmont as well as seeing who they bank with {!}. They have had JPM advice on this process so far, as I remember, and that is a HUGE red flag. Call me jaded but call me vigilant also. Might need to read the fine print as well as the invisible ink.
These mergers are taking on the appearance of a musical chairs game, as they are mostly about alignment of forces, pro gold vs. anti-gold in essence. Of course no new reserves are created at this point so the junior or smaller players will have to patiently wait our turn to enter the game. Lots of chairs will again be available when that turn comes!
We appear to be heading for another catharsis in the gold market! A bidding war for an Australian gold miner just doesn't seem congruous with a flatlined POG, yes? No bidding war? Then Anglo is out of luck and will have to scramble elsewhere for more fodder, setting up a cascade of further M&As at a more frenzied pace. I absolutely loved hearing how hard of a time the likes of Buttock or Anglo will have receiving the approval of shareholders of ANY unhedged company {this also from Bishop}. Revenge of the shareholders!!!! Things are sorting themselves out now, gold miner...... are you for or against gold?
Where are those damn hedge clippers?
Gobble, Gobble indeed!

Netking (11/22/01; 22:01:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 65759)
How much is that worth in todays dollars?
http://www.eh.net/ehresources/howmuch/dollarq.php
A useful tool (worth a bookmark) for comparing the purchasing power of money in the United States (or colonies) from 1665 to any other year including the present.

eg if Rich, Galearis or Auspec were to enter $52.50 and 1980 (the old silver high & year) this would equate to $113.66 in todays 2001 money.

*** For the British: The link for the Comparing the purchasing power of money in the Great Britain from 1600 to any other year including the present herewith:
http://eh.net/ehresources/howmuch/pound_question.php

Black Blade (11/22/01; 21:32:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65758)
Incentive to hedge gold is evaporating
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B0B0057F309?OpenDocument

Snippit:

TORONTO -- Gold Fields Mineral Services reports that the global gold producer hedge book declined in the first half of the year, mirroring the half-year contraction a year earlier. The reduction was equivalent to 1.3 million ounces reflecting all forward sales, delta hedged options and gold loans.

GFMS acknowledges that the reduction in hedging is partially the result of investor distaste for it after the shocks of 1999, which were a victory for the bankers who had managed to slip untenable margin calls into the contracts. Indeed, hedging has become a bitter gulf in the industry, particularly among investors who won't be reconciled to each other's view.

Hedging is also declining because it is simply less profitable. Le Roux says lease rates have behaved erratically ever since the Washington Agreement, "dropping to uncharacteristically low levels throughout most of 2000." One-month rates averaged just under 2 per cent in the first half of this year, sharply higher than the half a per cent available last year.

Combined with falling interest rates, the contango available to forward sellers has narrowed considerably. The 12-month contango is now at a fifth of the level it was a year ago. "Since the damage inflicted in September 1999, producers have displayed a definite preference to lock in their lease rates in order to contain their exposure," Le Roux says. However, the higher lease rates and increased volatility have raised the costs for doing so. These factors have all combined to shrink the premium and make it less worthwhile to expand hedge books or even maintain them.


Black Blade: Interesting article. Nothing new but illustrates the problems associated with forward sales. AU and ABX are so far under water they must acquire "cheap" ounces for delivery and hope and pray that the POG does not rise. Going forward contracts are approaching par with spot POG. This makes forward sales even more unlikely. "Interesting Times"


uponroof (11/22/01; 21:13:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 65757)
Saville on the NDY chessmatch
"...Gold and the Dollar The NEM-FN-NDY-AU Imbroglio

We've discussed the takeover battle for NDY in previous commentaries, but the story gets more interesting by the day. NDY directors advised shareholders to reject the Anglogold bid (initially valued at $1.42/share) on the basis that a) an independent expert (Grant Samuel) had assessed the value of NDY to be in the $1.48-$1.88 range and had therefore deemed the AU bid to be neither fair nor reasonable, and b) there was a better offer on the table (NEM had offered to buy NDY at an implied price of $1.70/share).

However, due a sharp decline in NEM's stock price and a slight gain in the AU stock price over the past week the NEM bid and the AU bid are now both valued at $1.46. Furthermore, both bids are now below the independent expert's fair valuation range. NDY closed today at $1.57. The market is therefore saying that NDY will be taken over and the final price will be higher than either of the current offers.

To make things even more interesting, there has also been a rumour floating around that Barrick Gold might bid for Anglogold. This seems a bit farfetched, but adds another dimension to the saga since anything that boosts the Anglogold stock price would automatically boost Anglo's offer for NDY. For example, if Barrick offered to buy Anglogold at a 30% premium to the current AU price then Anglo's offer for NDY would suddenly be worth around $1.90..."
*************

YIKES!!!!

Black Blade (11/22/01; 20:59:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 65756)
Digging for riches from gold
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1668000/1668907.stm

Snippit:

The deals can, however, be seen as representing veer away from the 1990s fashion for hedging gold production. That is, selling future output at a favourable price, effectively borrowing money against it.

Barrick believes in hedging production, but Homestake is relatively unhedged, so cuts Barrick's book post merger to about 20% of output. Newmont is largely unhedged and says that it intends to remain that way. Normandy, as an Australian firm, has been fully familiar with the derivatives markets. But Newmont says it intends to unwind Normandy's hedge position when it becomes economically attractive. This particular scotchcar could be upset if AngloGold decides to increase its offer for Normandy.

But with the South African rand still falling, such a boost could be increasingly expensive for AngloGold - and besides, rands are not as attractive as dollars.

Price rise?

Unshackled to the derivates markets, these new more venturesome gold miners are attractive to the growing army of gold bulls who believe the price of the metal is about to take off. It would look as though Barrick, Newmont and so on are indicating that they agree with this. Hedging works when you expect the gold price to weaken. It burns your fingers (remember Ashanti and Cambior) if the price rises.


Black Blade: I would wager that Munky, Oliphant, and Godsell are soiling their pants at the prospect of the non-hedgers rebuffing their advances and the gall of non-hedgers aligning themselves against them. The fear is thick and AngloGold is especially in deep doodoo as this is the endgame for them if they don't succeed in devouring some Gold miner with lots of ounces to deliver. Remember Ashanti and Cambior indeed!


The Invisible Hand (11/22/01; 18:28:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 65755)
Is Argentina selling gold?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011121/n21353503_1.html

The article under this Reuters headline "Argentina seen using Cenbank reserves to avert default" contains the following two paragraphs:

The operation is simple: the Central Bank lends funds from its international reserves to the state-owned Banco Nacion, which in turn authorizes the credit to the national Treasury, the federal agency responsible for paying debt maturities.
…
Total international reserves in the Central Bank were $19.3 billion of which foreign currency and gold reserves made up $18.4 billion as of Monday, Nov. 19.

Does this mean that Argentina is selling gold?

Black Blade (11/22/01; 17:39:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65754)
THE MODERN WORLD
http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2001/11/12/tomo/index.html

This link just about says it all! Happy Thanksgiving!

- Black Blade

Black Blade (11/22/01; 17:07:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 65753)
CB2 - Hedger vs. Non-Hedger, For Hedgers It's "Game Over"

It is interesting that the largest of the hedgers are unprofitable. I'm not talking "cash operating profits" here, I am talking actual "profits." Yet most non-hedged Gold miners are making an actual profit. The hedge fund miners don't have the option to cut back on unprofitable operations when the POG falls. They must high-grade and deliver ounces to fulfill their obligations. If the POG rises dramatically they face bankruptcy (quite ironic that a Gold miner could go bankrupt with higher Gold prices). Now Anglo and Barrick have their backs against the wall. They have no choice but to scramble about is abject fear and desperation to find a way to remain viable. AU just sold some operations to Harmony in a desperate bid to raise cash in the Normandy bidding war. A bidding war that they "MUST" win to keep up their end to deliver "Cheap" ounces. Barrick is in had shape as well. They recently devoured Homestake in a desperate race to acquire non-hedged ounces. These are "GRIM" days for the hedgers.

As they fill hedges and look for a way to move forward they realize that they haven't done any real exploration to replace rapidly depleting reserves (they simply can't afford to explore for new reserves). Forward sales contracts drop in price along with the POG. Hence, it becomes unprofitable to purchase more forward sales contracts. AU and ABX are toast unless they can devour lightly hedged or non-hedged gold miners. Now they are even considering devouring each other in an act of sheer desperation as a super giant hedged Gold miner is "too big to fail." In other words, when you owe the bank a little money it's your problem, when you owe the bank a lot of money it's the bank's problem."

It is interesting that you bring up Goldstrike. I know that NEM laid off a few hundred miners at Gold Quarry recently. Barrick is backed up against the wall and would like to cut back at Goldstrike. The rumor is that Goldstrike's surface operations will be cut back and anywhere from 400 to 600 miners could be cast upon the "Bone Pile" in the next few months. "Interesting Times"

Cheers!

- Black Blade


Black Blade (11/22/01; 16:38:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 65752)
Holiday Jobs Are Scarce This Season
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/wyff/20011121/lo/982262_1.html

Snippit:

While the signs of the holiday season are popping up everywhere, Upstate shoppers won't find many help wanted signs in stores. Many Upstate stores said that the rush isn't on just for shopping, it's also on for jobs. Wal-Mart said that they, like most retailers, hire holiday help in late October. But with the slump in the economy, retailers in the Upstate and across the nation have more applications than jobs.

Black Blade: Saving vs. Spending! Low consumer confidence and a rapidly growing "Bone Pile" has made holiday shoppers very nervous these days. Corporate and retail earnings look to be rather dismal this quarter. It leaves the Pimps and Trolls of Wall Street with a lot of egg on their faces after having touted a recovery in the third quarter, no - fourth quarter, no first quarter of 2002, no make that second quarter of 2002. I am sure that they will push back the recovery again and again. In a word - "GRIM"


CoBra(too) (11/22/01; 16:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65751)
NEM vs. AU
@ BB - Looks like the infighting becomes lethal between the Mega-Hedgers and the Unhedged.

The prize, Normandy, must have something up their sleeve i can't see at this stage - maybe you have a better insight!
- Why would AU and by extension ABX play any foul card to discourage the NEM/FN position. - and i'm not forgetting the Goldfields/Franco proposed merger, which deceased on political whim - or is it spin?

FN may have become the king maker in this game - as their balance sheet dictates to go with the future - i.e. highly improved POG and proven reserves and resources in different legislations _ and as i feel FN had its 1st. major deal on Barricks 'Goldstrike', where they still hold a major NSR.

All of that spells desperation of the hedgers, trying to conceal their spiel as long as possible; Though forward sales, which has been a money machine, like the Yen carry trade of late, has run its course and is now a major problem for the future viability of these hedge funds,trying to maintaining their respectability as gold producers.

Hoping that NEM wins the battle - and after that there is not much out there to cross swords about - except a few intermediate producers and precious few juniors, who still hold the fort - fwiw.

... Having discussed the merits of certain proven and potential au next to (Cortez JV), PDG's # 1 gold mine for years, i'm also aware of the deceit and unfair play, now overtly displayed by these defectors and its directors, as they pretend to be best friends of a junior company.
- Beware of sharks ... and be aware, shucks!

Anyway, if i still have some american friends, please enjoy this year's turkey, as i'm not so sure if the next event of Thanks Giving will make you all happy!

Forgive me to spoil the day - BTW, had my best Thanks Giving in Palm Springs, CA., hosted by an 95 year old Canadian, who told the original story in a most charming way - and i'm still embarressed that my answering address didn't live up to what the old man had to say.

- It still is great to see - a Nation giving thanks to the lord for all it received and therefore i'd like to wish you all a most happy day - and may the day remind us all of being free and true liberty!

God bless you all - cb2


Black Blade (11/22/01; 16:17:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65750)
Wall St. Job Hunters Find Buyers' Market
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011122/business_bizjobs_dc_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The few financial firms still hiring these days have found a silver lining in the economic downturn -- a treasure trove of top candidates who are willing to take a pay cut in exchange for a scarce job.

The cutbacks have hit some of the biggest Wall Street firms. Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE:MER) said in October it would offer its 65,900 employees around the globe voluntary severance packages. Staffers were bracing for layoffs that could cut 10,000 employees, sources said this week. American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP), said it will chop more than 6,100 jobs and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) will cut about 12,500 people this year, or 5 percent of its global staff.

Widespread hiring freezes have squashed the hopes of recent graduates or those laid off, who could have received six-figure salaries at a top Wall Street firm just two years ago. ``It's been slow,'' said Tambunan, whose wife is pregnant with their first child. ``I used to get a call every two to three days for a job and now I get one response for every 20 calls I make.'' That's a sea change from a year ago, when firms hired inexperienced staff at top dollar and then saw them quit when a better offer came along.


Black Blade: Wage deflation! If it isn't enough that many of the nonessential Pimps and Trolls of Wall Street are being cast upon the ever growing "Bone Pile," many nonessential "Bones" end up taking lower wages. Heck, the next time you go into McDonalds or Taco Bell, take a good look at the burger flipper sweating in the back.


Black Blade (11/22/01; 16:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65749)
OPEC's Rivals Close to Oil Output Deal
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011122/business_markets_oil_dc_5.html

Snippit:

MOSCOW/OSLO (Reuters) - World oil prices leapt on Thursday as hopes grew that independent producers are close to meeting OPEC's demands on export curbs to defuse the threat of an oil price war. Norwegian Oil Minister Einar Steensnaes said Norway was willing to slice production to help the OPEC cartel and Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said Moscow also was ready for action to help prices hurt by an economic downturn.

Black Blade: Non-OPEC loses this game of "Chicken." I suspected that OPEC had the stronger hand. OPEC producers can exploit their oil cheaper while non-OPEC producers are shackled by higher production costs. So far OPEC has been doing all the work and now they expect some support from the non-OPEC free-loaders. So far OPEC has clipped 3.5 million bbl/day production and now look for an additional 2 million bbl/day cut in production. "Interesting Times"


Black Blade (11/22/01; 15:22:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65748)
AngloGold Looks Vulnerable If Newmont Snatches Normandy
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/011121/15/1v4dn.html

Snippit:

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Is AngloGold Ltd. (AU) about to go from predator to prey? If it fails in its contested quest to acquire Normandy Mining Ltd. (A.NDY), the world's biggest gold producer just might become a target, say analysts. And the most likely suitor for AngloGold appears to be Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX). Late last week, a South African-based mining Web site, quoting an unnamed source, reported "fruitful" talks between Barrick and AngloGold's London-based parent Anglo American PLC (AAUK). The report even suggested Barclays Capital was prepared to finance one-third of a $3.6 billion offer for AngloGold.

Black Blade: Cannibalism! If AngloGold fails is devouring Normandy, then they are finished as a Gold miner. They could be devoured by Barrick with enough financing. Both Anglo and Barrick are desperate and looking for any means to survive. Both are unprofitable even with Gold sold forward for several years production. They only have high-cost low-grade ore left. If they can't find other miners to devour they are finished - it is simple as that.


megatron (11/22/01; 13:09:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65747)
tedw
Leverage/Potential=CornerBay/Minefinders
Stability/Assets=PanAmerican/SilverStandard

Both BAY and MFL have world class assets in the ground no bank debt and no fear of price spikes from hedging.

PAA seems to have great management and assets. The only concern could be long term silver prices below production cost. They are large enough to garner attention by being in the indexes if that's your bag.

I prefer co's with no strings attached at this stage, like BAY and MFL, but have crazy money in silver stock Minera Andes with a very large property being developed in Argentina, but have no expectations on that one . A gamble.


sourdough (11/22/01; 12:27:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 65746)
CDN DOLLAR /GOLD /U.S.DOLLAR
With all the talk about the potential of foreign investors abandoning the U.S. dollar, I`d appreciate comments on how this could reflect on the Cdn. dollar.
Can someone provide a link or comment as to how much Canadians currently have invested in U.S. denominated assets? If Canadians were to join other foreign investors in "bringing their money home", how would this reflect on the CDN currency and it`s gold conversion price.
How much do we have invested south of the border?


tedw (11/22/01; 12:23:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65745)
The best silver mining company

Opinions wanted as to what company is the best Silver miner and why.


AND

Thanksgiving Day greetings to all. It is a good day for all Americans to remember how blessed we are to be Americans.
You could have been born in Afghanistan. If you have never read Abe Lincolns original Thanksgiving day Proclamation, I offer it here for your consumption




Abraham Lincoln's Thanksgiving Address


October 3, 1863


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"It is the duty of nations as well as of men to owe their dependence upon the over-ruling power of God." "To confess their sins and transgressions in humble sorrow, yet with assured hope that with genuine repentance will lead to mercy and pardon. And to recognize the sublime truth announced in the Holy Scriptures, and proven by all history that those nations are blessed whose God is the Lord.
We know that by His divine law, nations like individuals are subject to punishments and chastisements in this world. May we not justify fear that the awful calamity of Civil War, which now desolates the land, may be a punishment inflicted upon us for our presumptuous sins to the needful end of our national reformation as a whole people.

We have been the recipients of the choicest bounties of heaven. We have been preserved these many years in peace and prosperity. We have grown in numbers, wealth and power as no other nation has ever grown.

But we have forgotten God. We have forgotten the gracious hand which preserved us in peace, and multiplied and enriched and strengthened us, and we have vainly imagined in the deceitfulness of our hearts that all these blessings were produced by some superior wisdom and virtue of our own. Intoxicated with unbroken success, we have become too self-sufficient to feel the necessity of redeeming and preserving grace--too proud to pray to the God that made us.

It has seemed to me fit and proper that God should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged, as with one heart and one voice, by the whole American people.

I do, therefore, invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea, and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November as a day of thanksgiving and praise to our benevolent Father who dwelleth in the heavens."


- Abraham Lincoln
Signed, October 3, 1863



megatron (11/22/01; 12:11:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 65744)
BlackBlade/et al
One overlooked aspect of the subject is the confusing? fact that Au/Abx etc are not going for the big deposits that are undeveloped and years off,or are buying highcost crap in SA to fill the pipeline. They seem to be grabbing at 'instant gratification' to fulfill obligations. this would support the contention that they are desperate. Russ winter has done extensive research and has found they have high graded an amazing amount in the last 3 years while failing to build long term, meaning they are close to the point when they must get producing mines at any cost or else. That point could be now. This is the prize I believe Franco Nevada saw coming when they made the 'uncharacteristic' decision to get involved with Normandy. As I posted then they had to have known they could unravel that baby in plenty of time to cash in, either on a gold rise or a buy out.Otherwise they would not have touched it.

Galearis (11/22/01; 11:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 65743)
@megatron & Netking
Same theme as Canuck's quoted quote...
You said:
"I like what SilverStandard calls their company. A "non-expiring call option on silver" except I changed it to regard all mining equities as a "possibly expiring call option on gold/silver". Do you think they would use it in the annual report? It's true!!!"

(Smile) I honestly don't know what spin people will come up with next. But one has to admire the poetry of some of these...

@Netking: There are all kinds of ways one can spin this story (if [even] true). The short side will tell you that India is just dishoarding an asset that isn't anymore, or to prove that there is really too much silver around and the CB has finally realized it...etc. etc. and we who watch the fundamentals will be taking the opposite view - for (fundamentally) more rational reasons. Rhody says it best, and India's population will swallow the silver down and beg for more - and that proves both sides of the argument at the same time (smile). The act (announcement/implementation of the dishoarding move) is more sound-byte noticeable than the relatively slower response of individuals taking advantage of the changed circumstances. The response is to a great extent unreportable except in hindsight. This always helps the other side for a time - a year (or longer than 8 months?)(smile).

And silver will tank some more on COMEX and they will gain the time. The more they prove by manipulation/declining COMEX spot that silver is a poor investment, the more the demand will rise for the metal as a vital commodity. (Mine production is still falling faster than economic demand.) They can't have it (smile) both ways. When the shortages are REALLY acute, and the disillusionment with the fiat world-view kicks in...the investment move takes over.

Fine. It works for us (the good and oh, so patient ones) as much for them - as you imply....

I should hear more about this this evening. Keep tuned. I do hope it is another "China" type story, however.
On to my other life...


Regards,

G.



Black Blade (11/22/01; 11:22:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65742)
Netking - AngloGold/Newmont - Normandy Takeover Battle

As I have been saying, this is an act of desperation. AngloGold (and Barrick for that matter) have over-extended themselves on forward sales. Then they high-graded the hell out of their ore deposits. The premiums on their forward sold gold is not covered adequately as lower grade higher cost gold is mined. Both AngloGold and Barrick face bankruptcy and this is just another sign of desperate times for the hedgers. They now desperately search in vain for "Cheap" ounces to deliver into their hedge book. They can only do this by feeding on other miners. AngloGold is backed into a corner and they must fight tooth and nail for Normandy. Cheers!

- Black Blade

megatron (11/22/01; 11:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 65741)
Galearis etc
I like what SilverStandard calls their company. A "non-expiring call option on silver" except I changed it to regard all mining equities as a "possibly expiring call option on gold/silver". Do you think they would use it in the annual report? It's true!!!

Netking (11/22/01; 10:51:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65740)
AngloGold complaint stalls Normandy
http://afr.com/companies/2001/11/23/FFXNC4OEBUC.html
Snippet:
Normandy Mining has been stalled in its efforts to defend itself against the $3.2 billion takeover bid by Mr Bobby Godsell's AngloGold, following complaints to the Takeovers Panel.

Last night Normandy was ordered by the Takeovers Panel not to dispatch its target's statement in response to Anglo's offer for the gold miner after the South African bidder complained that the statement was inadequate.

Signalling the start of what could be a long legal battle for control of Normandy, which is also being bid for by US-based Newmont Mining, AngloGold complained to the panel that the statement was deficient on a number of counts. . . . "

Comment: Time for the 'legal begals' to slug it out. - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Galearis(65737) I am cautious of the story(smile) given so much "proverbial" on the China/Ag story in the media. I'm also "open to it being correct". If true you can bet G. that there was "some amount" of dealing behind the scenes. These guys are frantic to find physical, I suspect that the "that's it no more left folks!" date is already accepted & will now be managed at a time that suits them to coincide other events . . . . it's all about damage control now . . . the ship will sink at a time & way that suits them('control freaks'). If correct the fundamentals still have not changed, still a continuing deficit, still massive shortages, still none at the US Mint, still no US stategic reserves . . . . .
The longer the price is manipulated down against the free market forces: 1)The faster the remaining physical will run out & 2)The more V I O L E N T will be the eventual free market re-balancing. The only thing that can eventually ration the "permanent shortages" we face in silver is PRICE(smile). keep us posted on any news on this. regards Murray
------------------------------------------------------------Canuck - The $50,000? . . . I'd convert from your fiat to mine & get $121,892(grin)and then get 80+% physical Au & Ag with some Au/Au call options to go on top and maybe buy a Dow put . . . and also bless others & give some away.

Gandalf the White (11/22/01; 10:43:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 65739)
More PANDA discussion !
http://quotes.ino.com/options/stock/?s=NYSE_NEM
UPDATE ---- Looks as if the NEM Puts paid off well !
Could it have been "Insiders" ? NAW !!
<;-(
=====
2002-01-19 20.00 NEMAD 1.05 1.05 72600 595200 NEMMD 2.00 2.00 2500 537400
=====
Gandalf the White (9/21/01; 16:02:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62120)
OOOPS --- There went another 2,150,000 PUTS !!!!!!!
2002-01-19 20.00 NEMAD 4.20 4.60 17600 360500 NEMMD 1.75 2.00 5340000 1892500
<.-(
=====
Gandalf the White (9/21/01; 15:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62117)
LOOK at this ! ( I hope it lines up well.)
http://quotes.ino.com/options/stock/?s=NYSE_NEM
Sorted by
Expiration Strike CALL symbol bid ask vol openint ---PUT symbol bid ask vol openint

2002-01-19 20.00 NEMAD 5.20 5.30 17700 353900 ----NEMMD 1.45 1.50 3109500 178100
===========
IF it is not easy to read, SOMEONE BOUGHT over three million $20 Jan 2002 PUTS on NEM at about $1.50 each today !!
THIS IS MAJOR HEDGING !!
ANYONE want to fess-up ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White (11/22/01; 10:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 65738)
tg (11/22/01; 02:15:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 65725)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=jpm,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]
Thanks tg for the minds picture and discussion ! HERE on the link is a picture of your warning. Looks like BB says --- "GRIM" !!
<;-)

Galearis (11/22/01; 09:36:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65737)
@Canuck, Netking and all
no link yet to the rumour on silver....
But Rhody sends an email about it. Unfortunately he did not send a source; later tonight, perhaps.

Canuck
It occurs that I did not fully answer your question of last night re BOC interest rate cuts. Perhaps the email pasted below could represent India's attempt at holding the line within its own borders. For the BOC, however, (that has only 1.1 million ounces of gold in its central bank reserves) the options are less fluid, perhaps. We are entering the fiat nightmare that so many here have talked about, and for Canada that means encouraging trade (87% + -) with the US at the expense of our exchange rate. The BOC cranks up the presses to devalue our currency to keep chasing a US market that continuously shrinks. To avoid some of the damage it makes very good sense to "buy Canadian" over imported goods; but we will see the "inflation" in many of our imports while the easy credit money whittles away at the domestic value internally. Mortgage rates, like bonds, are sensitive to the smells of inflation and are this week beginning to rise. The real question, as I've posed it before, is when will the BOC cease to degrade its own currency by staying under the USD in order to keep the exports healthy? Does "race to the bottom" strike any chords with you?

Media statements like you describe are either disingenous or represent incomprehension. Your choice. At worst we have a stagflation depression in Canada and a hyperinflationary one in the US ahead. The dollarization (US) campaign (or the softer capitulation concept of economic/political union with the United States from the Canadian right is even now gaining modest decibel levels here. The US must dilute its fiat excesses on the asset side. Us. To this goal, they have been (increasingly this decade) buying our corporate assets with their paper (with an increasingly big welcome from our federal government) and when the USD collapses one will not even hear any confusing media statements to explain it. The public will be too much distracted by its own pain. Besides fiscal/monetary policy is SOOOO boring!

NAEC here we come!

So, what would I do with $50,000? Easy. I would immediately pay off remaining debt (very low, thank goodness), then purchase gold, silver and land.

And now Rhody's disturbing email:
snip************

Hi:
The Indian government is deacquisitioning its central bank silver reserves to its own
internal market in an attempt to save foreign exchange (USD). Isn't that a hoot?
That silver will take the Indian market about 8 months to absorb, so Indian buying on
COMEX will decline, and so will POS I expect. This is an internal attempt by the government to support the rupee instead of the USD. Overtime anyone, anywhere
tries to buy a pm, it involves first selling the local currency to buy USD, in order to buy
the pm. So to buy a pm in your own country, you must short your own currency and
go long the USD. This is one of the things that holds up the dollar. However, in this
case, I think the rupees will be exchanged directly for the silver at banks, hence saving
the need to buy USDs, and basically taking rupees out of circulation as they are taken in
to buy the silver. The dollar loses and the Indian people and rupee gain. Mind you,
the central bank of India is out its silver at 5000 year lows. Isn't fiat currency wonderful???????????? This is what it's all about. In a fiat system, you dump real
value in order to support illusion. The indian deacquisition is an illustration of the whole
fiat pyramid scheme in miniature.
B.
***************
Oh, yeah....
Netking: Comments?

Regards,

G.

Spartacus (11/22/01; 09:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 65736)
The economy
http://www.dailyreckoning.com
....The U.S. Mint announced it was laying off 357 workers. Is the mint having trouble making payroll? No, instead, they've got the same problem as the telecoms - oversupply. "Tens of millions of dollars in unexpected coins [are] flowing into the economy," says the Philadelphia Enquirer, "as people scrounge through drawers, old suits, jars and cans for coins."

Paul O'Neill called it the "Golden Age for the U.S. economy." It was supposed to be "the greatest period of wealth creation in history." But all over the nation, people are lifting up seat cushions to search for stray coins. They're finding so many that the mint has reduced its estimates of this year's demand for pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters from $23 billion to $15 billion.

Business bankruptcies are running at a record rate, a Bloomberg article tells us...despite lower rates, business borrowing is still going down. "I've never seen businesses of this magnitude being rendered nonviable," Jeff Werbalowky, co-head of restructuring at Houlihan, Lokey. "There's been more money wiped out than I've ever seen in 20 years of restructuring work."

And putting an international spin on it, "World plunges into recession for first time in 20 years," says a headline in the UK Independent. And in Argentina, people have gotten so fed up they charged onto the floor of the stock exchange and shut down trading.

But the University of Michigan says Americans are regaining their confidence. The number of new unemployment claims fell for the 4th week in a row. And here's something interesting - the Cleveland Fed says consumer price inflation rose at a 5% pace in October.

Wait...the Bureau of Labor Statistics said prices fell at a 4% annual rate last month. Go figure.....




Spartacus (11/22/01; 09:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 65735)
The economy
http://www.dailyreckoning.com
....The U.S. Mint announced it was laying off 357 workers. Is the mint having trouble making payroll? No, instead, they've got the same problem as the telecoms - oversupply. "Tens of millions of dollars in unexpected coins [are] flowing into the economy," says the Philadelphia Enquirer, "as people scrounge through drawers, old suits, jars and cans for coins."

Paul O'Neill called it the "Golden Age for the U.S. economy." It was supposed to be "the greatest period of wealth creation in history." But all over the nation, people are lifting up seat cushions to search for stray coins. They're finding so many that the mint has reduced its estimates of this year's demand for pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters from $23 billion to $15 billion.

Business bankruptcies are running at a record rate, a Bloomberg article tells us...despite lower rates, business borrowing is still going down. "I've never seen businesses of this magnitude being rendered nonviable," Jeff Werbalowky, co-head of restructuring at Houlihan, Lokey. "There's been more money wiped out than I've ever seen in 20 years of restructuring work."

And putting an international spin on it, "World plunges into recession for first time in 20 years," says a headline in the UK Independent. And in Argentina, people have gotten so fed up they charged onto the floor of the stock exchange and shut down trading.

But the University of Michigan says Americans are regaining their confidence. The number of new unemployment claims fell for the 4th week in a row. And here's something interesting - the Cleveland Fed says consumer price inflation rose at a 5% pace in October.

Wait...the Bureau of Labor Statistics said prices fell at a 4% annual rate last month. Go figure.....




slingshot (11/22/01; 07:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65734)
To All at the Forum
Happy Thanksgiving. May the GOOD LORD keep you all safe.

Gobble, Gobble.

Slingshot

Belgian (11/22/01; 06:23:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 65733)
@ Canuck : 50.000 $
A much more serious investment portfolio than KnallGold :

- 20 % in US-Bonds at bottom interest rates of 2%.
- 50% in Growth-stocks with a minimum P/E of 35.
- 20% in call derivative gambles.
- 10 % in foreign bonds/currencies with a preference for Argentina and Turkey and others to become analogs.

Giving you many thanks for this generous offer (50.000 extra), because ALL other funds (mine) are already converted into an unknown yellow, refined, shining metal, being totally worthless, at present !

Happy thanksgiving Canuck !

The Invisible Hand (11/22/01; 06:18:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65732)
Is nature's Hand helping OPEC?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/newsid_1670000/1670259.stm

[Non-Opec member's Oil Drilling]
Rig adrift with 71 people on board
Thursday, 22 November, 2001, 12:27 GMT

The Norwegian oil company Statoil says a drilling rig has escaped from a tow and is adrift in the Norwegian Sea.
All 71 crew on board the Byford Dolphin rig are in good condition, and the position of the rig is not considered critical, according to the company's website.
The rig is equipped with its own propulsion machinery, and is moving under control at a speed of 1.3 knots between the Draugen and Njord platforms, Statoil says.
It adds that the rig's course does not present any risk of collision with nearby installations.
An anchorhandler is shadowing the rig, and several other vessels are also standing by.
Statoil said the first priority was to get new towlines on board the rig.
The company said the rig had been on its way to plug a well on Statoil's Mikkel field.


The Invisible Hand:
Five hours difference between GMT and New York winter time, so this Bloomberg headline was posted at the same time, today 5:27 Usagold Standard Time, unaware of the helping Hand of nature

11/22 07:27
Crude Oil Rises as Russia, Norway Seen Near Production Cuts
(http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO.zvNRULQ3J1ZGUg)

Canuck (11/22/01; 04:42:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 65731)
Euro Countdown
40 days

US$/Euro 0.878

Knallgold (11/22/01; 04:42:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 65730)
Canuck
Put 55000$ into physical Gold!Seriously!

Canuck (11/22/01; 04:38:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65729)
@ Galearis, All
If you were handed $50,000 today in cash, what would you do with it?

Belgian (11/22/01; 04:08:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65728)
Whoopsie..
Brent spot : 19,5$ ! Northsea oil and Putin got the message (10 $/barril would hurt severely)! Non OPECers play the collectivist's card by claiming they are *responsible* producers of the liquid black gold ! They forgot to mention the management of marketshare and massaging the POO as no other (new) production could take off. Hypocrits !

Don Stott, got another message. The risks of holding goldmines wich are responsible for having sold 3.300 tonnes of rock-gold instead of the precious refined (CPM) GOLD.
Yeah right, but a presumed total of 100/120 Trillion $ on a 40 Trillion (and declining) global economy, is normal practice, isn't it (yabedabedoe Enron/JPM-C)?

Sheer folly (but not bergère)!

The Invisible Hand (11/22/01; 02:39:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 65727)
Enron in advanced state of crashing
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011121/n21305489_2.html
The crisis of confidence ravaging cash-strapped Enron Corp. deepened on Wednesday amid mounting concerns that a proposed rescue by rival Dynegy Inc. could fall through, threatening the energy trading giant with bankruptcy.

tg (11/22/01; 02:24:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 65726)
THE DOMINO EFFECT OF DEFLATION. All the money pumping is just feeling in the black holes left from too much debt and too much capacity
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp
Deflation Will Drag Out Recession
-- November 21, 2001

We commented yesterday that deflation is one of the factors that will make this recession last much longer than most economists have predicted. For the first time since the Great Depression, deflation is burgeoning globally -- in Japan and in many developing countries. With the global economy entwined so tightly, it won't be long before deflation spreads further.

This article clearly explains the impact that deflation is having on the auto industry right now. But this isn't going to be isolated to just one industry or one sector of the US economy. In fact, deflation is also devasting the tech sector, and we expect it to spread throughout the US.

The auto industry is already cutting salaries and laying off workers by the thousands AND other industries connected to the auto industry are getting squeezed. It doesn't take long for the domino effect to occur -- one industry slashes wages and workers, followed by another, then another.

The resulting decline in corporate profits and widespread unemployment could push this recession on for years rather than months.

related article: Car Makers Live Reality Of Deflation


tg (11/22/01; 02:15:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 65725)
Interesting Rumor. If true, gold to da moon


----- Original Message -----
From: Central Bank Oversight & Monitor Committee
Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 6:03 PM
Subject: JP Morgan in Early Stages of Crashing

To: Central Bankers, Secretariats, Governors, and Concerned Others

Sirs:

As we've been reporting JP Morgan is the key player in the financial
derivative markets. What we could be seeing right now are the early
tremors going through their common stock, reflecting in part a plunging
US bond market, and massive debt repudiation by Enron and Dynegy.

The entire derivative pyramid will come down around this institution and
other players having extreme risk exposure. The US Federal Reserve
will be powerless to prevent this unraveling. To attempt a remedy would
be to threaten the recovery of the entire world economy, and the political
institutions of same.

As you can clearly see the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving
Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are sounding the alarm
bells for the collapse of JP Morgan.

Be certain your institutions are not caught in the vortex with nearly all
your foreign reserves in US dollars.

Sincerely,
CBOM



Netking (11/22/01; 01:26:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65724)
"Nightmare scenarios looming" - Taipei Times
http://www.taipeitimes.com/news/2001/11/22/story/0000112637
Some snippets from T/Times:
It is probable that the present downturn will not be as intense as the 1930s or 1982 recessions. However, more dangerous possibilities are the fall of the Saudi royal family and a Japanese financial meltdown.

***Oil***
George Perry of the Brookings Institution has developed various scenarios that predict the impact of a serious contraction of oil supplies. These span the spectrum from a mere disruption to a lasting reduction. With good economics and without drama, he finds that a contraction of 1 million barrels per day would raise prices to US$32 per barrel; an extreme cut of 7.5 million barrels -- a cut equal to 10 percent of world production -- would increase the price of a barrel to US$161. Such a price hike would incite the worst recession in the last 50 years. While there would certainly be geopolitical responses, the world would be in deep trouble for years even if oil started flowing again.

***Japan***
The second global mega-risk is a Japanese financial meltdown. This, too, is something that may happen any day now or that could be a few years off. Two ingredients are at work here: an economy that refuses to turn up (with no one inside or outside Japan having a clue as to how to change that) and an ailing financial superstructure. Not only are Japan's banks in trouble, but also its insurance companies, retailers, and other parts of the private sector are barely keeping their heads above water.

Most importantly, Japan's government is bankrupt. Its debt is larger than that of the US or Europe, which both represent much larger economies than Japan's. Growing your way out of debt is the usual answer for such a condition. Instead, Japan's economy keeps shrinking.

Japan's finances will remain stable only as long as Japanese households support the status quo by rolling over their holdings of government debt or by buying even more in the mistaken belief that such bonds remain plausible investments. Having seen their investments in stocks be destroyed by the collapse of the bubble 10 years ago, it is not surprising that individual Japanese hang on to their government's liabilities as a last remaining hope.

This is dangerous. One day there will be a creditors' strike. Investors will take flight into foreign assets as in any delinquent emerging market,(G-O-L-D!!! - Netking) and this will send the yen into a tailspin. When a currency crashes in this way, debt crashes and confidence falls, dragging consumption down with it. Overnight, Japan could descend into a new Great Depression.

If Japan goes under, much of Asia will also collapse. Instead of being bottled up in Japan, the economic shock will spread like a tidal wave, just as the New York collapse of 1929 did. Policy responses to such economic shocks may be better nowadays than they were during the Great Depression -- for example, we know not to embark on a trade war should the yen crash -- but no one knows how long and painful the process of correction will be."
------------------------------------------------------------
It's real simple friends. . . . Got Gold? - Netking

Netking (11/22/01; 00:59:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 65723)
Japan trade slump sparks "Global fears"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1669000/1669603.stm
Snippets:
* Japan's trade surplus fell by 32% in October compared to the previous year, with a decrease in both exports and imports.

* With the country heading into a prolonged recession, the government is promising additional measures to try to stimulate demand. Japan's once-massive trade surplus continues to shrink at a rapid rate.

* The size of the surplus was once a source of bitter controversy with Washington. Now that it is shrinking, the United States is far more concerned about alarming weaknesses in the Japanese economy, and the possible damage it could do to the world's financial system.

* The recession is forecast to last through next year as well.

* Worried by the size of the national debt, the largest in the developed world, Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi promised a cap on additional borrowing. . . . but the administration has now agreed on a second supplementary budget this year in an effort to generate growth.

Comment: All is not well in 'The land of the rising sun' as they strugle to manage damage control on the one hand and also put in place responsible policies. Next year is revealing itself already to be an exceedingly difficult one for Japan and will have ramifications around the globe. - Netking.

Netking (11/22/01; 00:29:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 65722)
Beijing warns US against Iraq attack
http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/east/11/21/china.iraqnov/index.html
Snippet:
Beijing has sent subtle warnings to the United States and its allies not to attack Iraq after their success in dismantling the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

The official media have warned against the danger of Washington and its allies entering into "the second phase" of its anti-terrorist campaign, which might include an attack on Iraq. . . . "

Comment: Meanwhile back in Iraq local "human shields" have again been invited to stay at President Hussein's palaces to reduce risk of air strikes. Approximately 2,000 Iraqis, including women and children, responded to a call four years ago by the Iraqi leader to stay in his palaces at a time when a military strike by the United States and Britain was widely expected.



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