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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/22/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Old Yeller (01/22/01; 23:49:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46192) Trial balloon? This quote from the French finance minister,Laurent Fabius, was included in Bill Murphy's Midas commentary of January 19th."I have always considered the idea that the American economy had discovered perpetual growth naive.The conditions we've seen for some time now,including the lack of savings and external trade deficit were inevitable financial negligence wrought by the over valued dollar.I know ,however that the new American administation is well aware of these games and is capable of acting pragmatically in close coordination with Alan Greenspan.The group of seven meeting in one month will give us the possibility to discuss these questions."This was sourced from Bloomberg,however,I couldn't find it to confirm it or to find out in what setting and to what audience it was presented to.It brings back a moment in history that is eerily familiar though.Are the French going knock the wheels off the US dollar gravy train again? Black Blade (01/22/01; 23:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46191) Gold Catalysts (link found on GE forum) http://www.acitravel.co.za/main.asp?conf_id=2 Strange concept of gold as a catalyst. The Gold Institure had an article about AngloGold sponsoring some research in this area. However, gold is nonreative, so what gives? It would be fantastic if it works out as a competitor to PGMs in this area. Black Blade (01/22/01; 23:20:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46190) RE: SteveH and "Short" article Some fun speculation Good link to the "Short" article. Think on this one. There are a record number of speculative short positions, record number of commercial long positions; the auction tomorrow is largely oversubscribed (possibly by several producers). There is a sudden rush to cover short positions that begins to feed on itself, and soon the investment bankers find themselves with their tit caught in a wringer. This continues as hedge-fund miners such as Barrick (ABX) and AngloGold (AU) get caught up in margin calls ala Ashanti (ASL) and the now defunct Cambior (CBJ). This continues only to cascade with more shorts covering and the POG rapidly rising. That would be "interesting." As well as entertaining.- Black Blade Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/22/01; 22:51:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46189) >>>============= $263.80 =================> Reasons given for any guess are based on mere conjecture, not fact. The POG has not reflected golds true value for years. Unless you are the most influential puppetmaster, the POG is usually as predictable as the direction of the wind at any given moment. Black Blade (01/22/01; 22:51:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46188) >>>>>>>>======= $269.70======>>>>>>>> Contest #2 The POG has been rising ahead of tomorrow's Brit BoE "Give-away" program. That is a strong signal. The price of gold mining shares has jumped even greater. This usually precedes a gold rally. I expect some resistance as the shorts will throw everything they can a keeping the POG under control. This battle could last for a few weeks – therefore, I offer the more pessimistic price of $269.70 per ounce with a strong sustained run on the POG to the upside. Dollar Bill (01/22/01; 22:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46187) (No Subject) ***********Herald of the Odyssey 2001************** Bold Action Knights! Some would say Nay! Cling to the past and the strength of the Fortress. But the enemy of old is a shape shifter who will not be frozen in one form.On the coinage of the Realm, is the claim "IN GOD WE TRUST".*The "Indispensible" Nation, the one who by accident and by design, plays a role of Hope and shines a Beacon of Freedomwhile riddled with the assaults and influences of the evil one inside and out.*It is one thing to joust with windmills, and another to identify the real enemy and the real nature of the playing field and the game that is afoot.*Some country songs romanticize pickup trucks, some men romanticize currency. Knowing nothing of the past, some men romanticize the short, cruel, way of life that men of even the recent past endured. *Playing chess with it's self created enemy, the god prods men toward kindness while the devil takes his due.*Some Mortal men and Knights, taking the risk of assessing which action is the influence of the devils' and which is the gods', claim gold is the truth and fiat is the evil.*Families hope for a better life, prayers of millions have cried out for centuries for a better life. How that prayer is answered, against all the wiles of the evil one, and inspite of the natural failings of men, is the real game here. Knights would want to always somehow know where thier leader stands and where his hand is. *Other Knights, having fought in wars against evil in other forms, take the prudent action that is presented to them as they see it. At this time, the die is cast, cast imagination aside, for better or worse, for evil or good, the course has been chosen. A Knight of another Table has sent a message. I bring it to you now. Knight Rubin, recalls a crucial step in the Asian crisis: "You used to be able to organise a relatively small number of banks in order to develop some kind of temporary relief so the banking system could work through its problems, but with banks being replaced by capitol markets and millions of derivitive bond holders, there's no equivalent way to organize the creditors, There is no way now to organise a standstill that might prevent things from cratering."*Knights, the Samurai in Japan are clamoring for thier .25%interest rate to be cut because they are in fact at the edges of deflation. America MUST shop. Fannie and Freddie, two weapons of credit creation, are targeting a 2 Trillion dollar increase in household lending. Targeting Blacks and single moms in particular, for home ownership. That 2 trillion dollar weapon will keep the walls of the fiat world intact and the price of gold contained at least through this coming year. *Knights, knowing the dire circumstance, those in charge of our allies in Europe, have thrown thier lot with the Dollar. The B.I.S. has taken the role of managing and reporting the Derivitive weapon numbers, one reason is that they are not bound to release data by anyone. Lower ministers may say otherwise, but America is leading, and there is no turning back except to embrace destruction. Journeyman (01/22/01; 21:55:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46186) Contest #2 >>>>=========$270.10============> As more and more posters seem to have caught on, prediction is very difficult, especially of the future, so any prediction is a guess.However in this case, an educated guess is possible. The official-unofficial price (yes I'm a manipulation believer) has been around the cost of production for a certain cross-section of producers, around $270. A lower price and more and more people begin to catch on that physical gold is a steal (and it is) at a price below this production cost.This would cause a greater loss of physical, which, presumably, "they" want to avoid. The price will rise a little after the BOE sale - - - why should this time be different - - - and so we end up with gold controlled around $270.Why not $270.10?Regards,JourneymanP.S. O.K. So it's a flimsey educated guess! THX-1138 (01/22/01; 21:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 46185) BOE price guess ####========$264.35====>>>>Reasons are the powers that be have to continue to maintain the illusion that inflation is still low.The auction will probably be oversubscribed by 4.7 times, and the price will probably rise $5 by next Friday. turbohawg (01/22/01; 21:36:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46184) Ron Paul update Look for at least part of an interview with Congressman Ron Paul to be included in the latest of John Stossel's ABC News special programs. This one, entitled John Stossel Goes to Washington, will air this Saturday, January 27 at 10:00 pm EST/9:00 pm CST. megatron (01/22/01; 21:34:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46183) Black Blade How can you say such words against the brave men and women who want to rule over us? That is SOOO unfair. They are so righteous and good. I have a truly warm feeling towards 99 percent of them :) Canuck (01/22/01; 21:02:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46182) auspec What was James Turk's famous line, "...it APPEARS that the gold is in Fort Knox".I am quite sure the last (mandatory, yearly, independant) audit was in 1975 (give or take a year).Oh yes, the 'earmarked' gold. Gold brought to North America to be safely stored during WWI and WWII. Now when it's 'sold' back to the European's it 'counters' the trade imbalance, crafty maneouver.Notice Tree of Life with the $574 number, reminders of Christian a week or two back, ha, ha. The commodity price, the trade balance price and the credit creation price!!There seems to be several deposits of gold, several prices for gold and seemingly infinite 'accounting' practices for gold, ha, ha. Seems to depend on which side of the fence one stands.This gold thing is sorcerer's brew man. The deeper one's gets, the more poisoned it becomes. Aristotle is no where to be found? Ari had a wicked post a few months ago, wish I could find it; pertaining to the wicked BOE, centre-stage tomorrow. I think COMEX is a baby compared to the LMBA.Read Reggie's latest, the BOE's timely gold-giveaway coinciding with bi-monthly future's expiry; a liquidity provider when things are most dry. Don't want the shorts dry now do we? Notice the chat today/tonight re: shorts, some 57 million oz., highest (almost) since Sept.99. Remember late-Sept.99, rock-and-roll time.Notice AGE (AEM) +11% today, PDG, NEM, some movers today. Ahead of the BOE auction? Something is very, very strange, hee, hee. First day of Bush admin., I wonder what was said in Washington today?Get ready to drop your jaw. auspec (01/22/01; 20:25:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46181) Randt {@The Tower}/ Canuck Net US Gold Outflow? Hey Randy,Canuck,Hope you guys actually have all this gold and silver we are prostituting ourselves to win. One never knows in this country, and when was the last official CPM audit???Actually, I was wondering if you have any further breakdown as to the "NET gold OUTFLOW" of the 330 tons you mentioned?What % is "official" and from what source does it come?Canuck-- You were asking about "earmarked" gold that is held in NY if memory serves me. This gold was erroneously being included in US export figures as either an honest or dishonest mistake. Have read James Turk's FK quest.We have to be talking about DEPLETION of US gold reserves, no? Help me out a bit, please, it is within my weak grasp! Tree in the Forest (01/22/01; 20:19:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46180) **** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey **** **** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey **** This is my first post here and I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all for the very sound course in economics and finance. It is very much appreciated. I have taken other such courses, mostly while attending the School of Hard Knocks and this forum is infinitely preferable. I have seen many predictions as to the future of the markets over the last several years. They've almost all been wrong, in timing if nothing else. I've come to believe that it can actually do people a disservice to make these predictions. In June of 1997, I sat across from a man at a financial conference who told me that the end was nigh and that by year end, the market would collapse. He said, "Trust me. I'm over 80 years old and I have made millions for many people". I trusted him. He was wrong and I lost money. One guru actually trotted out a note from his dead father while predicting the end in 1998. He too was wrong. Again I lost money. This last guru has a Phd. It didn't help. I have come to believe that when the interests of many diverse groups are involved, there are so many possible outcomes, and so many unpredictable events, that several predictions may be within the realm of possibility. Kind of like Wheeler's infinite number of outcome universes. Unless you're on the inside, it's all just a guess, educated or not and even insiders don't always get their way. And as someone at this august round table recently stated, mere good logic is insufficient to being right. Therefore, if the very well spoken and erudite knights here assembled will forgive my impudence, I feel justified in making some predictions based on two of the four Nostradamus quatrains originally posted by "Ben" over on Gold Eagle (Nov. 23, 22:55). My interpretation differs from the translator's and from Ben's but so what? One prediction is as good as another right? Thank you, Ben, for posting this. (Century VIII, Quatrain 14): The great credit of gold and silver great abundance, Shall blind honor by lust, The offense of the adulterer shall be known, Which shall come to his great dishonor. My interpretation: The paper shorting, forward selling and physical dumping of gold and silver has caused the distortion of these markets to the betterment of a few dishonorable players. The adulterer could certainly be our illustrious ex-president, (I think he qualifies!) but adulteration also has the meaning of pollution or dilution (of physical gold). The adulterer could be Goldman Sachs. In any case, the manipulators in these markets shall be exposed. (Century III, Quatrain 13): In the ark, lightning, gold and silver melted. Of two prisoners, one shall eat up the other, The greatest of the city shall be laid down, When the navy that was drowned shall swim. I cannot interpret the first line but it may have to do with the discovery of one of the Arks of the Covenant (as you recall from the bible, there were two). The two prisoners in the second line are clearly gold and silver. They are prisoners of the Comex. "One shall eat up the other" could mean one of two things. Gold could greatly exceed silver in value, or the other way around. Since gold usually does exceed the value of silver, such a prediction is of no consequence and therefore, in my interpretation, not worthy of consideration. I will predict the second. Comex will default on silver first and it will exceed the value of gold as Comex paper pushes gold to new lows. This will be the time to swap silver for gold. If silver were to exceed the value of gold, it would be very damaging to the ECB as it would erode the psychological value of their gold reserves. Platinum and Palladium already have done this by exceeding the price of gold but silver would be the last straw. This psychological issue is important. Since the Euro is not a true gold standard currency with exchangeability to gold directly, what purpose the reserves? Only their psychological support that in an emergency, they would be available for settlement of the paper notes. I believe FOA has touched on this issue. This issue cannot be ignored. The ECB would be forced to re-value their gold to the true trading value which is something in excess of the $574 that the US secretly values it in settlement. This is why so many strong hands are invested in silver. They will ride silver up, then change elevators to ride gold. The third line refers to the hot shots of New York finance. They will be brought low as their complicity in all that has transpired is exposed. And the last line refers to the destruction of the US Navy. It is a prediction of war. But as at Pearl Harbor, the Navy will ultimately triumph. The timetable for all of this? Soon! Am I right? Who knows. Mere logic is not enough to assure success but predicting is definitely fun. I must sign off now as I grow fatigued. As Yogi Berra once said, "Predicting is very difficult, especially of the future." ;-) auspec (01/22/01; 20:09:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46179) A Simple Question Who's Naked? Thanks Mr. G, ET, & Canuck for your FK input. I will have to locate previous discussion of same. On the trail, even if it has grown a bit cold.Premise--- An undisputable mountain of gold derivatives/shorts exists. The simple question: is this a naked short, and if not, what backs it? Options:1. Backed by official/unofficial gold supply.2. Backed by "the full faith and credit..."3. No backing, shorts will be SOL.The silver shorts give us clues to some point, as it is accepted to a certain degree that the silver does not exist in an above ground form to cover the shorts. Therefore, why would gold have to be any different than silver? CFTC doesn't seem to have any problem with players shorting silver in amounts that are impossible for them to cover. No big deal when an entire Gov is run by the seat of their pants.Please think through this, if you are so inclined, as to what the answer is to this "simple" question.Got backing? Canuck (01/22/01; 19:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46178) And........ What is the offical gold term for the metal stored in the NY fed that the US is 'safekeeping' for other countries?I've often wondered if it's being double-counted as 'Fort Knox'(US) gold.Hmmm? Canuck (01/22/01; 19:37:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46177) Fort Knox Hey boys, what a day!! (AGE.TO +11%,PDG +9%)Read a fair bit about the Fort Knox business via the James Turk site(s). Strange stuff; the part I can't fathom is the mandatory, independant yearly audit that hasn't been done since 1975(ish).What's up with that??Canuck. Peter Asher (01/22/01; 19:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46176) E-mail virus hoax alert If you get a message about a biological virus that comes in your snail-mail box, I'ts allegedly a hoax. ET (01/22/01; 18:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46175) auspec Hey auspec - always fun to read your stuff! Actually, the Ft. Knox thing was cussed and discussed here quite some time ago. There doesn't seem to be much to talk about since nobody I know has the key. I'm with Mr. G in that whether the US still has their reserves, or more or less, is most likely priced into whatever market that stuff trades in. I'm sure those that trade that market have some idea where most of the gold actually resides and which entity has claims. I don't expect we'll ever know the real story as nobody in the biz of trading large amounts of gold has any vested interest in telling us. Since we're stuck with fiat currencies as far as the eye can see, I suspect exactly who has what will remain a mystery. The only time we'll likely know anything is when somebody actually runs out and can't deliver against some claim and it becomes public knowledge. Maybe soon, eh? Mr Gresham (01/22/01; 18:21:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46174) auspec: FK My only (small) take on the FK (actually several locations, including CO & NY) gold, is that its unpublicized absence would certainly be a prime motivation to demonetize gold for as long as possible, in favor of the dollar, again, for as long as possible.The strategic 1-2 plan, of course, would be to run fiat for all it's worth, then phase in the gold reserve for at least the dollar's continuing equal status with other major currencies. (Didn't FOA mention some lingering legal difficulties from the 1971 closing of the gold window? A re-backed dollar might awaken some old claims?)But, if gold's not there, then the dollar doesn't get that second life, does it? And US citizens have to work, produce and export harder to build up any trade credits for future consumables.But, in the hands of the .gov, I've never thought of the FK reserve as something that was going to benefit ME, or anyone I knew, directly. Isn't that why we have our own small fortresses? And long ago stopped inviting over for dinner the wacky neighbor with the funny accent and the spray can of gold paint? Canuck (01/22/01; 18:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46173) Contest #1 **** 2001- - A Gold Market Odyssey **** I believe we are the cusp of major change. After 8 years of Clinton administration that was suspect in it's intentions I feel the change of office will set gold free. I have a notion that President Bush will "want to pop the credit bubble, drop the dollar, and let gold rise sooner rather than later. In other words, get the nastiness over early while you can still stick the mess on Slick, then play the hero who restores the economy on a sound footing after the profligate Clinton years." (1) The US asset bubble has been bought, not earned. Each and every 'sub-bubble' is at great risk; the entire financial sysytem has "become leverage on leverage, speculation on speculation, piling risk on risk – the proverbial "house of cards"". (2) Corporate America is now confronted with decelerating growth, decelerating profitability and accelerating debt. Consumers, who account for 2/3rds of economic activity suddenly realize the predicament they are in. Mortgaged, margined and indebted to the hilt, suddenly the 'wealth effect' is vaporizing. The 'powers that be' are "dealing with extreme structural distortions, both financial and economic. The public is completely oblivious, and policymakers stunningly unprepared. This is, most regrettably, the worst-case scenario developing right in front of our eyes." (3)The soft landing/hard landing scenario will be played out, IMHO before end of 2Q01. Today's gold stock numbers signal something, perhaps Mr. Bush has already let something out of the bag. I am so happy to see the change of administration, not in the Democratic/Republican sense but merely that possibly, maybe possibly some shady characters will be booted out. Mr. Bush now has opportunity to clear the field, set the record straight and tell America and the world what has been going on the last 8 years. I think number crunchers know the truth, we'll see if Mr. Bush really intendsto instill fairness, equality and honesty across the board. And finally for Mr. Bush to contemplate. "The system is literally "at the end of its rope," precariously left today with the financial sector locked in a self-destructing process of leveraging, the only means of sustaining this momentous bubble. I just can't come to see how this ends in any other way than disaster. I don't want to yell "fire" in a crowded theater and I am mindful of the seriousness of the current environment. But I will be honest about this: I don't like the looks of this one bit and am particularly worried about how this is developing." (4)(1) poster G-E(2,3,4) prudentbear.com auspec (01/22/01; 18:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46172) ThaiGold If Fort Knox Turned Up Empty I have beat on this drum a couple times and now have seen you as well as Farfel bring up the FK issue, to deafening sounds of SILENCE. This subject is like the crazy Uncle that is always there but never mentioned.I'm thinking: Is this a form of Forum correctness, that we don't talk about Uncle FK? That's not really gold drooling profusely out of the sides of his mouth, he's just got a little gum problem. However, this cannot possibly be the answer as this site will talk about most anything. Review the last 2 days for example!The answer has to be that NOBODY REALLY CARES, or possibly that everyone assumes the gold is GONE already and again, don't care. Am pretty sure that everyone I come into contact with tomorrow on tierra firma couldn't care less one way or another. It's simply a left over relic from the past that they don't understand, and it doesn't effect their lives. Would love to see the responses ellicited by a newsman poking a mike in some faces and asking: What do you think about possible missing metal from Ft Knox?? Unless they've been watching some Bond reruns they won't have a clue.If no one cares, not even the sound money sites, why not use it as some form of pork and get something out of it? The US Banana is King and the perceived value {price} of a full FK in relationship to all of the outstanding bananas is quite miniscule. Another sign of how LATE it is and what a JOB they have done in demonetizing gold in the public mind. Business as usual and as expected.As that famous Viagra pitchman exclaimed----Where's the outrage?! Well, this knave for one IS outraged and we may just have to start a membership drive to storm the gates for a fool {full} inspection. If no outrage then ----Where's the curiosity?!I just gotta know......Does a single soul, unfortunate enough to still be reading this irrelevance, believe FK still has the goods??? Al Fulchino (01/22/01; 17:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46171) Mountain Top (01/22/01; 13:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46160) You were one of the people who I didn't recognize as a poster :) Thanks for the thanks. Glad you liked the book. The email is for us to talk about the book. fulchinos@prodigy.net Flatlander (01/22/01; 17:34:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46170) Contest #2 >>>>>>>========== 276.10========>> R Powell (01/22/01; 17:28:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46169) Canuck's Arrow Cool, I like it! Should be worth a silver coin all by itself. Canuck (01/22/01; 16:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46168) Another 'arrow' attempt \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,\\\\\.........................$269.90..................///////////////////''''''''''''''''''''''''///// Canuck (01/22/01; 16:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46167) Contest #2 \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\_________$269.90_________\\\////////////////// ///The gold 'management' team still has control, I don't see significant change.(Sorry about deformed arrow, keyboard does not have 'greater-than', 'less-than' characters)Canuck AUgustUS (01/22/01; 16:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46166) **** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey **** This long adventurous golden journey of mankind has led us - down through the ages - on a series of wanderings.These wanderings have been far and wide, high and low. In many instances - the majority of people have forgotten, or are oblivious to - the experiences - and the lessons learnt. Some have chosen to ignore these whisperings from the past. Fortunately, others have been working at combining these past experiences to achieve a better - more equitable solution for the generations to come.We stand today at the dawn of the next thousand years. The past hundred years alone are sufficient reminder to all of us that we may have become more advanced - but distinctly less civilized. Something is fundamentally not sound with our "empty" progress. The answer lies in our "measurement" of "things".The world's population still places far too much emphasis on the value of paper promises - of all kinds. This includes the value placed on currencies, derivative instruments, debt instruments and other contracts. We fail to see the relationship between a "high price" and a "low value pricing unit". An example could be the "high price" of a loaf of bread or Tech stock when priced in a "low value pricing unit" such as a very weak currency. Is the bread expensive - or is the currency weak ? And compared to what ? Today, and in the recent past - the value of the US dollar has served as the reference point for all trade between nations. When the US delinked the US dollar from gold - the US dollar no longer had a point of reference or measuring point. Accordingly, there has been no way to measure the dollar. Mr Greenspan admitted as much recently. Since the US dollar was the reference point of the world - and had no reference point itself - this must imply there has been no valid reference point at all for close on 30 years.The gold price today is no longer a reflection of the amount of currency in circulation but has become a function of the combined spot demand/ supply price of gold and the price of a futures contract on gold. The value of a futures contract in reality is close to nothing when push comes to shove - as it is simply a paper promise. If the promise cannot be fulfilled - the contract becomes worthless. Following this reasoning - it is possible for the pricing mechanism of gold to break - "down" - during this developing international revaluation process. The futures price of the equation could more accurately reflect it's true value - thereby driving the spot/futures price of gold - down.On the other hand - the US stock markets (as one example) are priced in dollars. The less each currency unit becomes in "true value" - the more currency units you will require to get that same "asset". Assuming the debts of a country are "monetized" to "pay" them off - rather than having an outright credit and asset collapse - one could find a situation where all prices in the USA go up - including the stock market. This would simply reflect - "inflation". Inflation is after all - purely a monetary phenomenon. If you create more money through the printing of a currency or via the mechanism of monetizing and increasing debt levels - inflation will be the result. This could filter through into the stock markets in the form of increased earnings by companies - simply reflecting the fact that they are earning "more" currency units for their products than they were previously.Where then, does that leave us regarding the prospects for gold in the year 2001 and onwards - given that we have had no independent means of measuring anything for nearly 30 years - and given that the price of gold is priced using a pricing mechanism other than the amount of US dollars (and ALL other world currencies) in circulation ?It seems to me one can well expect to see the price of gold first resolve it's own "incorrect" pricing mechanism prior to it being in a position to reflect the true nature of the worldwide currency situation. This would involve the futures contract price of the spot gold equation being driven to zero as the true nature of the futures contracts come to light. This process will probably take place in the face of an expanding worldwide money supply and inflationary situation that will make people realize that all their "value" measurements appear to be floored. As such - a hard currency asset such a gold that cannot be "created out of the blue" will be sought after by all paper assets. Only then will all assets be more readily measured from a starting point that will be the measurement of all things - namely GOLD. So gold will probably perform "poorly" initially - but will reward "handsomely" thereafter.Don't be fooled by the "price" of things. Learn to recognise the "value" of things. Pandagold (01/22/01; 15:52:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46165) The fun is starting Monday, January 22, 2001GOX runs up to 4-mo. high--3:40 pm - By Tomi KilgoreGold stocks are shining, as witnessed by the 6.7 percent surge in the CBOE Gold Index ($GOX: news, msgs) to 34.45. The index reached an intraday high of 34.64, the highest level seen since Sept. 22. Among stocks in the sector, Newmont Mining (NEM: news, msgs) is rallying $1 to $17.31, Barrick Gold (ABX: news, msgs) is skipping $1.09 higher to $16.19, Homestake Mining (HM: news, msgs) is advancing 38 cents to $5.19 and Placer Dome (PDG: news, msgs) is climbing 69 cents to $9.38. February gold futures (GC=G1: news, msgs) closed up $2.10 at $267.00 ahead of the Bank of England's auction of 25 metric tons of gold slated for Tuesday. The last auction, in November 2000, was 3.3 times oversubscribed. John Doe (01/22/01; 15:38:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46164) From CNN - empty rhetoric or "new era"? Bush warned his new staff Monday to watch how they conduct themselves as long as they are employed by his administration, using their morning swearing-in ceremony to tell them they had received the "honor of a lifetime." Moments after White House staff members were sworn in by Vice President Dick Cheney on Monday morning, Bush urged them to maintain a commitment to high standards as his representatives. "We must remember the high standards that come with high office," Bush said, with his wife Laura, Cheney, and White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card seated behind him. "This begins with careful adherence to the rules. I expect every member of this administration to stay well within the boundaries that define legal and ethical conduct." He urged the staff members to consult White House Counsel Al Gonzales on ethical matters. And he called on them to confront colleagues if they see questionable behavior. "No one should hesitate to confront me as well," Bush said. Cheney sounded a fatherly but stern warning to the staff. "You've all taken up some serious responsibilities ... You serve the president and you serve the White House and the government. But most of all, you serve the American people." "In the final analysis, it's important to remember only one man put his name on the ballot," Cheney said, with a nod to Bush. "He'll be held accountable for your performance." Bush said he wanted, at the end of his term, for the American people to know his administration had kept its promises. "Let us begin the work we were hired to do and leave this a better place than we found it," he said, before moving into the crowd to shake hands with staffers and their family members. SteveH (01/22/01; 14:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46163) shorts? http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?nu=1&source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B1EBB945B%2D2949%2D455C%2D9762%2D2D333B576D8E%7D hmmm. R Powell (01/22/01; 14:08:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46162) Bridge News // a traders point of view [B] NY Precious Metals Review: Gold hits 2-wk high as shorts cover22-Jan-2001 19:49:12By Deborah Kinirons, BridgeNews New York--Jan. 22--COMEX Feb gold futures settled up $2.1 at $267.0 per ounce, after climbing to a two-week high $268.6 amid short-covering. The move follows Friday's commitments of traders' report, which showed a net 14,864-contract increase in non-commercial shorts, and comes ahead of Tuesday's 25-tonne Bank of England auction. NYMEX Mar palladium, meanwhile, settled up $12.7 at $1,075.2 per ounce, after creeping to a new all-time high of $1,085.0. * * * More The COT report is a bi-weekly affair so... those 14,864 new short positions were added in the two weeks ending last Friday. For those of us who ask, "Who is buying?", I answer I don't know. But we know who is selling and I think POG held up right well under the pressure of big sales. This shows (IMHO) strength or support in the market. If you wanted to buy big time, when better than when silly trend followers are selling big time. You can accumulate a huge position without running up the price while you're buying. Maybe...? Rich John Doe (01/22/01; 14:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 46161) >>>========= $274.50 ==========>>> Because the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars, it is the dawning of auriferous, auriferous, auriferous, au-rif-er-ous!Oh, and the price suppression team is in changeover. Mountain Top (01/22/01; 13:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46160) Sierra Madre Al Fuchino Sierra Madre - I thank you for you kind welcome Sir.Al Fulchino - Some time ago you sent me the book, "Finding God in Physics" and I lost your mailing address and your email address. I would like to take this opportunity to tell you how much I enjoyed the book and to thank you for it.Gold is for the ages. A little silver doesn't hurt either. R Powell (01/22/01; 13:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46159) *********Contest Guess*********** >>>>>-------$279.40------->>>>> This would be a fairly good move in just one week but the big money funds that paper trade the POG had 70,903 short contracts as of last Friday and only 13,743 on the long side. First notice day for the Feb. contract is Jan. 31st. These are speculative traders who (I know it's hard to believe!) don't want physical gold. They will have to offset or cover their shorts in the Feb. contract before Jan.31st. Short covering requires buying which raises the POG while, with silver on the move and POG also stiring, these same trend following buffoons may be cautious about re-establishing their shorts in future contract months. Historical note- the funds were a net 62,910 contracts short in September 1999 just before the Washington Agreement was announced. Open interest (total number of contracts) is as of 1/19/01 only 140,036 contracts. It was larger in September of 1999. The fund's short position now, in relation to open interest, would give POG an even bigger Ka-boom than in 1999, if the funds were forced to cover. Wouldn't that be fun to see! Rich Sierra Madre (01/22/01; 12:47:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46158) Welcome new poster Mountain Top! Glad to have you around, Mountain Top! All who join with your spirit are surely welcome.It's not the amount of knowledge that is important, it's the QUALITY of your knowledge.A lot of know-it-alls are in for a big, big fall someday not too far away. You find them writing in the big papers, commenting the news on T.V., lecturing in the Universities. They have only scorn for those who frequent this site.You have come to the right place, something tells you that gold and silver are worth accumulating. You're perfectly right, and you don't need to know much more.What you find out here, is perhaps, Why you are right.Welcome, and emjoy!Sierra SHIFTY (01/22/01; 12:25:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46157) Gold Fields hopes to go through with Franco-Nevada merger http://library.northernlight.com/FC20010122080000276.html?cb=0&dx=1006&sc=0#doc Gold Fields hopes to go through with Franco-Nevada merger--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Story Filed: Monday, January 22, 2001 12:23 PM EST JAN 22, 2001, M2 Communications - The South African gold miner Gold Fields Ltd says it is still hoping to merge with Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. The South African government blocked the USD3.7bn merger agreement last September because it believed the merger would not benefit the country's economy. Gold Fields notes that it is still trading under a cautionary which was meant to have expired at the end of 2000 and the merger agreement with the Canadian miner is also still valid, and the company is hoping that the government might reconsider its previous decision. (Reuters, 18 Jan 2001.) African Mining Monitor includes paraphrased and abstracted material with the source, which is deemed to be reliable and duly identified. AMM is unable to provide full-text copies of these original documents. ((Comments on this story may be sent to info@m2.com)) African Mining Monitor-Copyright 1998-2001 M2 COMMUNICATIONS LTD ------------------------------------------------------------Go GoldGo GATA$hifty Randy (@ The Tower) (01/22/01; 12:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46156) Pandagold, you have missed the larger message. I did not indicate that THIS person suffered for lack of gold. The point was that even the power of having friends in high places that could pull legal and political strings fails in the ability to produce gold metal out of thin air...being something which may be a desirable but impossible chip to call upon from big friends during an unfolding derivatives crisis. Let contracts fall into default...getting a "Get Out of Jail Free" card is considerably easier than making good promises and honoring obligations.Is this pardon a clear example of the Clinton administration's tolerance for any such person involved in financial shenanigans? Shall we see the great financial unwinding/reckoning now commense under Bush? Pandagold (01/22/01; 12:03:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 46155) Randy at the Tower - Big Deals.... Sorry, but you have me at a loss. I read the link but did not see how this guy suffered because he had no gold.All I saw was he amassed a fortune by defrauding Uncle Sam, besides a number of other things. What I learned was that if you are fortunate enough to belong to a certain ethnic group you can get away with murder. As you know, you could be a mass murderer in the US, then flee to Israel ( if you qualify) and there is no extradition. But perhaps you can explain where I have gone wrong Pandagold (01/22/01; 12:03:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 46154) Randy at the Tower - Big Deals.... Sorry, but you have me at a loss. I read the link but did not see how this guy suffered because he had no gold.All I saw was he amassed a fortune by defrauding Uncle Sam, besides a number of other things. What I learned was that if you are fortunate enough to belong to a certain ethnic group you can get away with murder. As you know, you could be a mass murderer in the US, then flee to Israel ( if you qualify) and there is no extradition. But perhaps you can explain where I have gone wrong Mountain Top (01/22/01; 11:49:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46153) Greedy new poster Knights and Knights and Ladies assembled:Allow me to introduce myself, I am a retired mechanical engineer whose prior knowledge of things financial consists of knowing how many ten dollar bills are required to make a given purchase. WHile I have learned much while loitering in the vicinity of the table round, my much is a purely relative thing. It is as nothing when compared to the erudition to which I have been exposed here. Even the terms and language are still mostly alien to me. I have learned the most important thing. I must add to my pitifully meager hoard of gold and silver and this then, is the purpose of this post. I will gain a silver Eagle. I confess my avariciousness before you all and I beg understanding. Randy (@ The Tower) (01/22/01; 11:47:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46152) Remarkable tale of big money, big deals, and a big pardon from "Big Bubba" at the last minute http://www.futuresource.com/reg/cgi-bin/art?010122/082438 An excerpt: "The decision to pardon Rich marked the final chapter in a remarkablelegal and political drama between the United States and Switzerlandinvolving the hugely successful and highly secretive commodities trader."Please read this tale of intrigue and then consider---- even guys like this who can pull tricks out of hats cannot pull gold out of hats when the derivative house of cards comes tumbling down.You either have it already IN HAND when you need it or when it pays off (like insurance, or, dare I say, the winning lottery numbers) or you do not. Gold, that is. SHIFTY (01/22/01; 11:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46151) M&G Gold Investors Purple With Anger http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=17544636&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious M&G Gold Investors Purple With AngerSource: The Sunday Telegraph London Publication date: 2001-01-21M&G is trying to appease angry holders of its Gold pension fund who have just found out that it has been ditched, writes Paul Farrow. It was the only pension fund in the UK to invest solely in gold. But the gold price has plunged from $500 to $265 per ounce in the past 15 years so M&G asked unit trust investors to vote on a proposal to merge the fund with another because of its poor performance. But regulations prevented pension fund holders from voting and they only became aware of the changes in a letter sent to them recently. They are angry because they were moved without their consent. Jeffrey Mushens at M&G said: "They are gold bugs and think that gold will pick up one day. We are trying to see if we can set up a self- invested personal pension which would give them access to a gold fund from another provider." SHIFTY (01/22/01; 11:34:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46150) DJ AngloGold/Gold Fields Merger Could Dent Investors' Fancy http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews/4071908.htm DJ AngloGold/Gold Fields Merger Could Dent Investors' Fancy By Adam Aljewicz Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES JOHANNESBURG (Dow Jones)--If AngloGold Ltd. (AU) and Gold Fields Ltd. (Gold) merge it might ensure the survival of South Africa's gold mining industry, but it could also dent investor sentiment toward the gold mining sector, say analysts. Neither company has commented on month-long reports of a possible bid from AngloGold for Gold Fields, but such a move would create an 11.5 million ounce mining house with a market capitalization of around 40 billion rand ($1=ZAR7.8700). It would also effectively see the withdrawal of a number of gold mining stocks from the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa and reduce investor choice across the sector, say analysts. AngloGold currently accounts for 60% of the turnover on the JSE's Gold Index while Gold Fields accounts for 30%, Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HGMCY) 6% and Western Areas Ltd. (O.WAR) 4%. A merger with Gold Fields would see AngloGold's figure increase to more than 80%. If Gold Fields gets swallowed up by AngloGold, then Gold Fields will be delisted and if, as has been suggested, Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) does play a part in the restructuring of the local gold mining industry with a bid for Western Areas, then this too will likely be delisted, say analysts. "If the consolidation goes ahead as people expect, then investors will lose out," said an analyst at a local securities house who did not want to be named. "Each mine had its own investment characteristic and this will be lost as everything will be geared towards AngloGold," he said. The driving force behind the merger is AngloGold which is aiming, according to an analyst who declined to be named, to reach a critical mass in order to attract greater investment and win a rerating of its stock. But Bobby Godsell, AngloGold's chief executive, has contended that South Africa's gold mining industry needs to consolidate to ensure its survival. This could see AngloGold selling its marginal operations to Harmony which is considered more adept than AngloGold at turning failing mines into profitable operations. These include AngloGold's Matjhabeng, Tshepong and Bambanai and Joel operations in South Africa's Free State Province, which have a collective annual mined output of 1.3 million ounces per year. There is also AngloGold's Savuka operation in the West Wits area which Harmony has already expressed an interest for. "AngloGold is a flabby company and it's been mismanaged. They've realized they can't run marginal mines," said an analyst at an international securities house based in Johannesburg. "Therefore, a merger with Gold Fields would be good because it would then be able to divest itself of its marginal mines and concentrate on the more lucrative shared operations," he said. This, say analysts, could pave the way for AngloGold to take Gold Fields' 1.4 million ounces per year Driefontein mine, while Barrick would be free to take control of its 1.4 million ounce Kloof operation. Gold Fields ended trading Monday 5 cents higher, or up 0.2%, from late Friday at ZAR28.75 while AngloGold ended ZAR1.00 lower, or down 0.5%, at ZAR219.00. lamprey_65 (01/22/01; 11:34:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46149) COMEX price still rising Now up $3.50. Hmmm, not typical day before a BOE auction.So, what's different today? ;-) Randy (@ The Tower) (01/22/01; 11:15:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46148) Quick review of the gold portion of Friday's data on the U.S. trade data for November http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html Department of Commerce November trade data reveals that the U.S. sent $33 billion in currency to international accounts to compensate them for the shortfall in U.S. export of goods and services against the value of goods and services imported from foreign owners. It is the notion that the financial securities accumulated with these excess dollars will someday be cashed in en masse against the prospects of a weakening dollar (and thereby adding to the downward spiral that would affect the "net worth" of dollar owners both domestically and abroad) that argues for a prudent diversification into gold as an alternative financial reserve asset.International interests do indeed seem to see things this way, and international trade figures with respect to the yellow metal continue to show a significant net outflow of gold from the U.S. into foreign ownership. November gold export levels increased over October by $91 million in book value, reaching $0.559 billion. In contrast, our November import of gold was only $211 million, translating to a net gold outflow of $338 million; approx 39 tonnes.Comparing this trend with last year, we see that foreign trade partners have really upped their call for our available gold supplies. Figures thus far through November reveal $5.414 billion which has been exported year-to-date, up 21% for this same period in 1999.A look at U.S. gold imports reveals the year-to-date balance of the gold trade to yield a NET gold OUTFLOW of $2.958 billion, representing very approximately 330 tonnes.Recalling that U.S. gold mining provides only approx 355 new tonnes each year, any outflow figures for December which are comparable to November's will mean that the equivalent of ALL new U.S. gold was sent abroad, and more.The disturbing conclusion from this is that it seems that as a very wealthy nation with a lot to lose, collectively we have more more confidence in the future purchasing strength of the dollar than does the rest of the world. Troubling, because the fate of the dollar is held in these international hands. (Repatriation potential, remember?)Be a nation unto yourself and follow this worldly example of prudence. They are getting their share of earned wealth in gold. Are you getting yours?No one will make your decisions for you to take action one way or the other...but we do try to equip you with the best information. The rest is up to you. Know this: the kind folks at Centennial are at your service, waiting to do your bidding. auric (01/22/01; 10:55:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46147) >>>========= $271.10 ==========> The mortar holding the bricks in place is beginning to crumble. This week should see some entry info the gold arena of smaller investors who realize GWB is not going to be a panacea for the Markets, and they begin to dabble more in alternative investments, i.e., gold and silver. While it won't overcome the manipulated market, it will cause gold to inch up to $271.10 by the target date. Belgian (01/22/01; 10:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46146) HBM at your service with pleasure. http://www.preciouswaves.com/FreeSub/FreeGr/GoldQtr-64-00.Gif Trade weighted Exchange index of the US$ vs. major foreign currencies : - sharelynx.net- contraryinvestor.comOn leave for 3 days. lamprey_65 (01/22/01; 10:46:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46145) War Nickels, Silver/Nickel, and the Defense National Stockpile Center http://www.dnsc.dla.mil/ For the report, see the link titled: Strategic & Critical Materials Report to the CongressAlso notice the PGM link........I purchased a lot of WWII silver nickels last week. Little did I know the path this would lead me down...From its beginning in 1866 with the "Shield Nickel", U.S. five-cent pieces have been composed of 75% copper and 25% nickel. During the middle of 1942, however, the country found itself in a difficult situation in that WWII had begun and there was a shortage of nickel for industrial use.To help alleviate this nickel shortage, the U.S. Mint changed the composition of the five-cent piece, replacing nickel with silver. The composition for the new coin was 56% copper, 35% silver, and 9% manganese. A large mint mark was place above the dome on the reverse of the coin so as to allow for easy identification for possible future melt programs. From 1942-1945, over 48,976,000 troy ounces of silver were used in the minting of these coins. Regular, pre-war composition was re-established in 1946.One of nickel's many important uses is in the manufacture of stainless steel.So far, so good. It's the next part of the story which has me perplexed.Following the link above, you will find a report which lays out last year's national defense stockpile numbers for both nickel and silver (Table 5). Surprise! NO NICKEL LEFT! Also, remember a month or so ago the announcement that the last of the silver from the stockpile would be sold over the next 12 months? All silver held is marked as excess...NO Silver!The majority of materials on the report show their entire inventory assigned as excess. Huh?Look at cobalt...all inventory designated as excess. Here is a short description on the importance of cobalt:"Cobalt is used to harden steel and as a catalyst in such processes as the manufacture of gasoline. Blue pigments made from cobalt compounds add color to paints, while cobalt-60 isotope is used to treat cancer".http://www.inco.com/info/nickel/vital/nicke05g.htmThe information at the above webpage makes me think the U.S. now believes it can rely on its own, internal sources and those of Canada for silver, nickel, and cobalt - without the need for reserves in these items. I'm not sure this is such a wise policy...it takes time to mine, refine, and transport these raw materials - time we may not have in the event of a sudden conflict.What the heck is going on here? This is supposed to be a national defense stockpile. It would seem to me that a 6-month supply of all industrial commodities should be kept on hand. Maybe the temptation to use these stockpiles to influence prices (like the attempt made with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is just too great for politicians to handle. This is not just a Bill Clinton problem - Congress is authorizing these sales.Also, notice that DLA has quite a bit of palladium...they've been auctioning it off for months. Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/22/01; 10:33:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46144) Pandagold: Good Point! The whirlpool turn you around and can pull one down if they are unable to escape its grasp. Euros anyone? VanRip (01/22/01; 09:46:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46143) Gold Price Contest for Friday, Jan. 26 >>>===============266.40===============>Not enough time yet for the Bush administration to make heads or tails of what is really going on in the PM arena. When they do, there won't be much they can do about it. Greenspan is still piloting the ship and may use threats to keep it that way, IMO. So, it's steady as she goes. The trend is still down - though slowly. Pandagold (01/22/01; 09:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46142) Elavator Guy, Thai Gold & Stock Lies and Ticker Tape Elavator GuyEasy to see how errors and misunderstandings can arise when we have little time to read all these interesting, stimulating, though sometimes mildly provoking, postings.I understood YOUR meaning of ‘US’. My parenthesis was for those who hadn't read, or remembered your posting. I didn't want anyone to be ‘provoked’ by thinking I, or you, was getting at the US (ofA) I realised after sending it that you might think I had misunderstood.The general theme, I must have misunderstood. It seemed to me you were drawing attention to all the ‘theys’ as being references to TPTB, which so many posts (including mine) often include, and that you did not believe such malevolent creatures exist.Hope this clears the air. Hope you're in full sail, and that you scraped all the barnacles offIt's going to be a long bumpy voyage for the next twelve months, and there is a strong enemy flotilla out there, so keep alert.Thai Gold and Stock Lies and Ticker Tape, Thanks for your appreciated, and pleasant, comments. Randy (@ The Tower) (01/22/01; 09:00:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 46141) Message for our weekday visitors who do not or can not join our weekend Round Table discussions http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html Michael has sent word that the gold 10 Guilder young Dutch queens have now all been spoken for, and efforts to secure additional quantities have not proven fruitful thus far. Congratulations to all (myself included) who acted early enough to secure an order of these beauties while supplies lasted.So, while the "sold out" sign must come up on those items, MK has been able to land enough additional Kings to keep that offer up for the time being. Don't be shy...physical gold in the hand is worth XXXXX promises in contract form when cascading counterparty defaults show all paper for the poor wealth substitute that it is. (In the end, futures contracts are just variations on a fiat currency theme.)"GOLD: You either have it or you don't when you need it most." Randy (@ The Tower) (01/22/01; 08:34:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 46140) A contest is afoot! Notice is served to those just now arriving from afield to our Round Table...DEADLINE: Tomorrow Midnight MST *REPOST of contest details*USAGOLD (1/19/2001; 11:27:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 45919)Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .A test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until midnight (MST) on Tuesday, January 23rd. We stand at the first month of a new millennium, a time to stop and think what the future might bring. So the contest is simple as it is challenging: To wit: Will 2001, a market Odyssey, be a positive one for gold or a negative one? Is this the year of the big breakout? More of the same? A disaster? You make the call, support it with knowledge, skill and erudition and the prize is yours!We ask contestants to treat the potential economic, political and financial scenarios as a basis for their opinion. We stand at a threshold -- not just of a new century but a time of uncertainty as the winds of change sweep through the world economy. There could be no better time for a contest with such a theme than now.Your post must be at least 30 words and it must contain in the subject box the following:**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****(Surrounded by stars as shown....to help get our attention when we gather the many entries together at the deadline.)The prize will be a .1867 ounce pre-1933 French Rooster gold coin. There will be two runners-up who will receive a one ounce silver Eagle each. Also, we will have another contest to guess the price of gold for the February contract at the close Friday, January 26, 2001. All entries must be posted, however, by midnight (MST) Tuesday, January 23, 2001. The winner of will be the one whose arrow falls most closely to the mark, and shall be rewarded a tenth ounce prize that shines with the light of gold. All price guesses must be accompanied by sound reasons for your prediction to gain the prize. And as has been done it the past, it would please our judges if you would use standard arrows in the subject line of your post when you take aim to enter this 2nd contest. Like this:>>>========= $300.00 ==========>Also, all first-time posters will be awarded a one ounce silver Eagle if you post during the contest period -- from now until Tuesday midnight, January 23rd, 2001. To qualify for the prize, you must e-mail jill@usagold.com confirmation citing the message number once you've made your first post. We will check each first-time poster's claim, so don't feel like you can get one by us.We wish you good luck, good fortune. . . . . .And. . . . .Let the contest continue! elevator guy (01/22/01; 08:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46139) @Pandagold Dear Sir Pandagold,My satire was only about how it is that we are massaged into hating others, and so to divide the people inot little groups, using distortions, and fear. This technique is used to keep the people divided, so that may not form a collective fist, and thereby assault the forces that keep them enslaved.The term "US" was not meant as an abreviation for the United States, but was intended to refer to any side of any group. I was trying purposefully to avoid any reference to any actual group, and show that the forces of propaganda that exert influence on the people actually use the same technique to align all citicens, no matter what their group is. As long as we are divided, the staus quo is preserved.Thanks you for your response. I remember my parents saying that very same Scottish line, but now you have given me the rest of the line that was missing. Very good! Pandagold (01/22/01; 08:25:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46138) Stock, lies,and ticker tape There's no 'BUT' friend, or should I say 'matie' Whirlpools are all part of the elements and natural (and un-natural) forces, of which any 'sailor' should be aware. (But don't whirlpools suck you in, not turn you around?) Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/22/01; 08:14:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46137) PandaGold: Well put in a naval context, but....... Always beware of the occasional whirlpool that takes you full circle back to where you started. Dramamine? tedw (01/22/01; 08:03:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46136) The New World Order http://www.usagold.com Interesting article in worldnetdaily.com about Germany.The German Prime minister and equivalent of secretary of state are advocating less German national soverignty and a European Constitution. The Germans were also the force behing the Washingtom Agreement if you recall. Europe is headed for unification and the EURO is the glue that helps bind them together. ThaiGold (01/22/01; 07:33:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46135) Attn: Pandagold (01/22/01; 06:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46131) http://users.sisna.com/ThaiRanch/EagleRanch/fivestar.htm Hi PandagoldYour "Entering Troubled Waters" post gets a Five Star Award.(That means I liked it, and was of the highest quality.)Congratulations. It's the first one.!.ThaiGold Hill Billy Mitchell (01/22/01; 07:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 46134) Sir Belgian @ # 46049 Sir Belgian:About those 30 year charts which you stared at for hours.Your post has stimulated my desire to take a look. Could you please provide the link or source for the 30 year charts on the dollar and gold.TIAHBM SALMON (01/22/01; 07:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46133) Contest > > > $286 This maybe the time when the ball start rolling - the contrary indicator.Ultimately, the fundamentals have to take over, not the maneuvering of the financial houses and the banks that will prevail. The gold is well price now for the studied investor. When you buy the gold now, you likely to make a substantial profit over the next seven years, diversification is the answer.Historical note; The last time the Bank of England sold a substantial amount of gold was from 1965 to 1971, when the price was pegged by the US government at $35 an ounce. They sold 1300 tones - two thirds of their holdings. Nine years later, gold reached a record high of $827/oz." SEER (01/22/01; 07:08:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46132) **** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey **** Upon the edge of a lofty plateau I stand and cast my eyeTo pierce the misty fog below and scan the murky sky.For down below lies all I own, a paltry sum at best,But I must save it, I alone! Oh, may I stand the test!What dangers lurk beneath the shroud that shuts my vision out?Is there a storm below the cloud? Is there a thief about?I look again and, sure enough, there comes a man of sinTo take my gold, a man so tough! I fight but cannot win!He comes as a dragon with several heads, each full of raging fire,With nostrils spouting heated smoke, and sinews that never tire.The first head doesn't really steal the golden trove of mine,He drives the price to depths unreal! And all I can do is whine!The second head tells me I've lost it all, there's nothing I can do!Sell out! Be gone! Gold's price must fall! And he calls the same to you!The third head spins a nasty snare, of carnage and deceit,As power brokers near and far turn up their savage heat.But then beyond the savage beast my eyes pierce through the mistTo see that all is not yet lost! A champion raises fist!What strength he shows for all to see! What power he displays!Is this the one to set us free? Will gold now find its way?Ah, yes! Take heart! And guard your trove of yellow shining metal.Our champion rides to save the day. The dragon he will battle.Who is this one that we can trust with all that we may have?How can his sword the dragon thrust until its bowels calve?The champion is a dashing knight, an angel of great power,For he's the one who holds much gold, and wants more by the hour!His name: DEMAND! He wants it all. He wants it really bad!And he will pay the price you call, for none is to be had!And that, my friend, will spell the end, in year two thousand one,To the dragon's silly paper games he used to think were fun!Gold's price will climb, and surely pay, within the coming year.I see it now as clear as day! Behold! It's almost here! Pandagold (01/22/01; 06:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46131) Entering troubled waters, As I come from a maritime nation, may I be forgiven for using the occasional naval; analogy and context in my postings to support the point being made.At the start of this new millennium and a new US president's term of office, it is my feeling that we are about to steer into very turbulent waters.This should not be daunting; it should be viewed as exciting. However we need to know about, and understand the elements, like any good sailor, such as tides, weather, water depth etc. Mind you, if ‘investing’ (I use the term, here, liberally), we should always have knowledge of these. In the stock markets these ‘elements’ are – Media attention, volume, company fundamentals, shares behaviour within its peer group, past performance (chartPattern), money supply, interest rates, etc., etc.If going into battle, then there are other things we need to know - where is the enemy, how strong is the force, in which direction is it moving and why. Then there are not only surface ships, but there are underwater craft, planes, and possibly mines, all there to trap the unwary – I think you are by now beginning to get the message.The stakes being fought for in those financial markets ( all the markets) are greater than any naval battle ever fought. (Do you know how much money is involved?) Never forget, that for anyone to gain someone must lose – the markets do not generate money – only transfer it from one greedy little paw, to another. We were able to land on those Normandy beaches with the largest armada in history, and suffer, comparatively few casualties against a well entrenched enemy because we fooled him into believing the landing would be at another point. He was kept guessing from expertly put out misleading information, and movement.Why on earth can some of you only see the importance of this in one context, yet doubt, or disbelieve it in another? This is what really baffles me. Wake up guys, hoist your sails, splice your main brace, strike your colours, and feel the salt spray on your face.Where was I, I get carried away when I hear those creaking decks, and see those guns bristling for action. Ah, yes – we are entering turbulent waters, and there is an ‘enemy’ out there – one who wants to take your booty and send you to the bottom.I read in someone's post the comment re this morning's data that was up a bit, then down a bit, and that the euro looked like toilet paper…..bla ..bla. The object my friends is TO KEEP YOU GUESSING. I repeat, TO KEEP YOU GUESSING. That's the way battles are won.You have to get into your enemy's mind in order to out guess him. You need to know the overall plan. What is the real objective (agenda), find out, then you will know the trend.The trend of the euro is UP. The trend of the dollar is DOWN. Will it appear that way – NO! Otherwise it would be easy. We could all run and mortgage the home and stick it all on euro long positions. It is the same with anything in the markets. The trick is to fool you.There is no struggle between the dollar and the euro. The transfer of power is an arranged one by the only people capable of arranging it.There are very good reasons for this which I could explain, but you should be able to see yourself. The transfer has to be gradual - the boat cannot be allowed to rock. There are good reasons for this - which you should also be able to see, and understand.For gold, or anything, to be allowed to take away the food supply to the euro, as I have explained before, would be a disaster for the experiment, and for the hoped for, 'soft landing'.Stop worrying about this, or that was up a dollar, or down a dollar – or you will go stark raving bonkers. Identify the trend (current and wind direction), and remember, always that you are up against a cunning and experienced enemy who knows the waters well, and if you can't see to get into his head, he can into yours. He knows exactly how you will react to his every move; you are predictable.Please excuse the occasional errors as I am a terrible typist, and have no time for editing - got to go aloft to the crows nest to keep watch (the markets.)Happy sailing, and keep your powder dry. ThaiGold (01/22/01; 06:35:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46130) Fiat Gold Backed Currency ... How Ironic it Would be ... Let's expand on my two previous tid-bit posts:What if the Government decided to issue 8 Trillion Dollarsworth of Gold Backed Currency. Backed by the supposedGold in Fort Knox. Yet there was actually no gold there. Goneand vanished somehow. Yet the Government wouldn't, indeedcouldn't let anyone know that.So the Big Lie. It's in there. trust them. Trust these new Goldbacked currencey certificates.What does that leave us with.?. Fiat Gold Currency. Becausethe Government decrees it. DeJaVu allover again.Dare I say it.?. Of what value then is Gold in the Government'snon-credible possession.?. Answer: None whatsoever.!.Soloution: Mint the Gold. Into Legal Tender coins. Only thenwould it serve any usefull purpose. Isn't that Ironic. ET (01/22/01; 06:24:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46129) >>>------- $271.10 ---------> The chart looks constructive. ET (01/22/01; 06:16:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 46128) Bob Murphy http://www.lewrockwell.com/murphy/murphy25.html From the article;"Well guess what, folks? Humans have fallen for government. We have lost our self-esteem; we simply do not believe humans can treat each other with civility. We tell ourselves it's "human nature" that causes wars. Sure, in a perfect world, there would be no famines, but we have to accept reality, right? "Nope. Governments start wars, not civilians. Murder is no more "natural" and thus inevitable than dying from hunger or tuberculosis. As a society, we can take definite steps to greatly reduce the incidence of all of these things. It's true, we mustn't proceed through "scientific" management of human affairs, but rather allow the free market system to foster civilized behavior. "(Ever notice that famines never happen in the capitalist countries? When the US gets hit with a drought, the news features some impoverished farmers. When a socialist country gets hit with a drought, people start dying in droves.)""Just as recovery can only come when the abused woman stops denying her own responsibility for her horrible life, so too will we stop wars and famines only when we admit that humans have been living a tremendous lie for thousands of years. "The truth is scary. It is simply awful that all of this suffering around us is largely preventable. I understand that. But we must have the courage to accept this truth, to stop the cycle. "We must admit that Government Is Evil." ThaiGold (01/22/01; 05:56:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46127) PS: A new kind of Gold ... If Fort Knox Turned up Empty ... It would have a New Name: Fiat Gold.It's in there. Because the Government says so. Trust them.Solid Gold. Paper Gold. Black Gold. Fiat Gold. What next.?. ThaiGold (01/22/01; 05:48:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46126) Shift Change: Count the Till ... Remembering Old Times ... I'm just sitting here, thinking about all the complexities of whatour new President must be going thru. At this Change of Shift.Way back about 40 years ago, I had a part-time job to tide meover somewhat. Between professional careers. It was as theGraveyard Shift (MidNite to 8 AM) Nite Desk Clerk at a smallbut (of course) reputable Hotel.At Change of Shift, when I came in to takeover from the earlierguy, the Swingshift (4 PM to MidNite), the order of businesswas to "Count the Till". ie Inventory all the cash and coins inthe cash register. Because I was responsible for it all, and thetally into the next shift (DayShift) had to talley with all the nitereceipts plus/minus the Till Cash.It was a slow, carefull process. At each end of the Shift. Theremight be a discrepancy of a few cents, maybe even a buck ortwo. A reCount ensued. And one more, if still unresolved. Ifit still didn't balance, one or the other of us simply dipped intoour personal cash and tossed it into the Till. So we could gohome or get on with work.So, I'm wondering: Will GW Bush Count the Till.?.The one supposedly at Fort Knox.?. All of USA's gold.And what if it doesn't balance.?. Or is mostly (horrors) gone.!.And who could be trusted to do such an Inventory.?. I mean,whom would we, The People trust, to really tell us the Truthas to whether any of our Gold's still in those vaults. Afterall,it would be quite a shock to the American People. Would theytell us.?. I doubt it. One of life's cunundrums. So why count it.ThaiGold Leigh (01/22/01; 04:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46125) Gold in WorldNetDaily http://www.worldnetdaily.com "The declining dollar: A reason to buy gold"Another WND headline/article today. Pandagold (01/22/01; 04:07:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46124) Elavtor Guy - 'They' (Them - whoever) (Elevator Guy They (Them) You got most of it right. You fouled up a bit on the ‘US’ (as in ‘we’ not USA).In Yorkshire (England) they have a saying, which in the vernacular goes - There are two Yorkshire men ( old friends) philosophising about life and people in general as they sit on a park bench. Then, after a pause for reflection, one turns to the other and says – " All people are a bit strange, Jim, ‘cept me and thee. And, come to think of it, there are times when I'm non too sure about thee."And a little further north, just across the border there was Rabbie Burns who wrote (in the slightly adapted Scots vernacular) "…………..Oh would some power the gift to gie (give) us, to see oorselves as ithers (others) see us, it would frae mony a wrong turn free us, an foolish notion."In our maker's eyes we must all fall well short of the truly ‘good’. Man is pretty rotten; it is just that some of us are worse than others.Joking apart. I know what you are getting at in this posting, and it really depends whether you believe the market is operating under ‘free market’ forces, or there is another organised force at work that has its own agenda. It would have to be a powerful, organised, and disciplined, force (network); no individual could do it. But if you think the market is acting freely, well, I suppose you are in a lot of company, because if there weren't enough naïve people, ‘they’ could fool, ‘they’ wouldn't have been able to get away with it. Black Blade (01/22/01; 04:03:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46123) Today Could Be Fun on Wall Strteet PMs are still looking good this morning though gold has pulled back from being $2.00 higher to now only $1.10 higher. NG is higher, though oil is down. Today is the first day on Wall Street with GW as Ruler of America. We shall see how the market reacts. So far the USD is higher and the Euro is looking more like toilet paper. Anyway, long weekend, whacked some ducks, drank much Anchor Steam Porter,and now time to catch some ZZZZZ's. ThaiGold (01/22/01; 03:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46122) **** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey **** ... Contest Essay ... Looking up "Odyssey" in my WebSite's Dictionary link, it brought forth:[quote]od·ys·sey n., pl. od·ys·seys.(1) An extended adventurous voyage or trip.(2) An intellectual or spiritual quest: an odyssey of discovery.(After the Odyssey. a Homeric epic recounting the wanderings of Odysseusafter the fall of Troy. From Greek Odusseia; From Odusseus; Odysseus.)[unquote]And, as I recall, "2001" is the true beginning of the new Millennium.So that's an apt combination of words to fit an Essay around. Since we asa specie, are now embarking upon an Epic Journey. Into unknown waters. Andinto unknown times. Yet we know that history always repeats itself, andthere's the old adage that "The criminal always returns to the scene of thecrime". Hence, maybe our Journey will just be a RePlay of the same old stuff.Yes. I believe that. The same old stuff. Manipulation of the Price of Gold(POG) downward, but within a "range" that suits the manipulator's needs.Manipulators.?. Some believe there are none. Ostrich-like. Head in sand.Others, like GATA (Gold AntiTrust Action Committee) have done incrediblein-depth research, and have come to their own conclusions as to who isbehind the manipulations, and why. GATA refers to "them" collectively as"The Cabal".Myself, have a somewhat different theory on the whole affair. It includesmany of the players that GATA is targeting, but not for the reasons thatGATA has concluded. Nope. I have different reasons. And most of them appearborderline "legal". Or very hard to prove. I wish GATA the best, but believethey may be frustrated with their eventual (court) results, or, at worst,simply Barking Up the Wrong Tree. But this is not an Essay about GATA.My basic theory was recently outlined and posted as the first-part of thisContest. In post: ThaiGold (01/22/01; 00:55:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46112)In that post, I explained that it would seem to be an easy matter for somesuper-rich entity or group to manipulate the POG downward, using the COMEXFutures Market and LBMA (London Bullion Merchant Association) for example.Sell-Stop orders are routinely placed therein (COMEX) to protect holders ofContracts against adverse down spikes. If a sell-stop is triggered, it sellsgold into the market. Paper gold. But still considered as gold. Deliverablegold, if/when push comes to shove.Such entity, if they owned enough of their own gold (to backup their papersell contracts) could flood the market with gold, at any time, in virtuallyany amount, and drive the POG downward. Way downward. Again and again.Then, at the target low point, begin discretely buying back their floodedgold, and at the same time buy whatever additional gold they wished. At thelowest prices imaginable. A bargain. A contrived bargain. A legal bargain.Why would they do this.?. Because they have too much paper US Dollars on hand.And they don't trust paper fiat money. Can you blame them for that.?. I can't.How do they get so many paper US Dollars.?. That's easy: From selling theirproduct. What's their product.?. Answer: Oil. And Dope. Lotsa money in both.Not the same people. Until they begin the Futures Manipulations. At that point,it becomes a symbiotic relationship between all kinds of famous entities. Sortof a "You scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours; and then I'll try not tostab your back before you don't stab my back" relationship. Rather fragile.Yet paradoxically, rather robust. It has thrived for years. Since January 1996by my best estimate. Look at the long term POG charts. It's plain as day whenit all started. The first week of January, in 1996. See for yourself.Next, there is a BandWagon effect: The OIL cartel, needs to do their thing viaestablished market participants. Big Banks; Brokerages; Bullion Banks; and withthe help of (wink-wink) various Central Banks; Government regulators and indeedperhaps Government officials at the highest levels. Example, the US TreasuryDepartment via the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund). They have lotsa power;connections; and liquidity (both gold and paper US Dollars) with which to backall the other members of the manipulation machine. Let's call them what theyare: "Insiders".Nobody is always perfectly honest. Most everyone has their price. Or at leasthas an agenda; or marching orders from someone else (higher) so-inclined. Andeveryone likes to make a Fast Buck. (Except me, of course. And ...er ... You.)These then are the BandWagon Manipulators. They (using their insider knowledge and connections) often FrontRun or parallel run the original Cartel's floodingof the markets. Why don't the Cartels complain.?. Because the FrontRunners arehelpful in flooding the market with more paper gold. So we have three (or more)floods coming into the markets regularly:(1) The Cartel, trying to do their thing: Oil-to-Dollars-to-Gold Exchange.(2) Market speculators being Sell-Stop-Lossed out of their "Long" positions.(3) Insider FrontRunners, always ready to ride the BandWagon in the gold flood.That's quite a lot of gold, coming into a market, even if it's paper. Then, addto it all the craziness of paper gold options, puts, calls, deltas, derivativesand who knows what else they can invent. All very profitable. If timed right.The Trend is Your Friend. Theirs too. And they know it. But you don't. So easy.Who establishes the (down) Trend.?. They do. You wanna buck that Trend..?. No.Hence, as I see it, the year 2001 is going to be mostly more of the same. It'sbeen very beneficial to the US economy by making the POG appear lower. Andthat's an "indicator" of non-inflation. The Government loves it. So they lookthe other way. Or even assist. It's a very interwoven symbiotic symphony. Allof them playing the same tune. All of them sharing in the ticket revenue.Most in this Forum would agree, that the previous (Clinton/Rubin/Sommers/FED)administration used every trick in the book to contrive the stock marketbubbles; issued fake CPI numbers; and pumped up liquidity; interest rates andwhatever else they could dream up to make the economy look good. For them.Now we have a new (Bush) Administration. A new Treasury Secretary. But the sameFEDeral Reserve Bank Chairman (Alan Greenspan). The SEC and CFTC will be lapdogs as usual to their friends in high places. Mostly the FrontRunners, and theFED and NY FED honchos. One big happy clique. Don't rock the boat. Be as fakehonest as possible. Deny everything. Look the other way. Rake in the Bucks.Musical Chairs. House of Cards. Call it whatever you like. But it will continue.GATA feels there's a huge "Banking Derivative Crisis". They are probably right.The whole thing is so intertwined and crosslinked that if it comes apart at anyseam, it'll look like Championship Chinese Dominoes. Zillions of them. Poof.!.So my "More of the Same" projection has that Caveat. If the whole thing blowsup in their face, there may be no way to save any of it. A worldwide calamity.Financial volcano. It could blow at any time. Be prepared. Get physical goldwhile you can, at todays faked low prices. Bargain of a lifetime.!.And for sure, Silver too. Because the only thing, ONLY THING, that can put theworld's economies back together will be a Hard Currency Standard. That meansGold and Silver coinage minted and circulating as Legal Tender once again. AndRedeemable Gold and Silver Certificates. And redeemable Gold and Silver digitalmoney. And sensible, limited, tightly controlled Bank Credit expansion basedupon it. Like in the old days. The previous Millennium.Will all this come about within 2001.?. Or within our lifetime.?. Answer: Yes.Now you have been alerted. I told you so. Will you believe me.?. Answer: No."Odyssey"(1) An extended adventurous voyage or trip.(2) An intellectual or spiritual quest: an odyssey of discovery.All aboard.!. Hoist the Main'sl. And the Mizzen. (3) Gold and Silver is your lifeboat. Get some. Get more. In 2001.Cordially,ThaiGoldThaiGold@OperaMail.Com================================================================================ Topaz (01/22/01; 03:23:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46121) SteveH et-al re: Gun control in Aust. Hi Steve,Just as a bit of side info, it was reported in the Press over the w-end that plans are afoot to roll back the "gun control legislation" (at least here in N.S.W - Au.) due to growing conserns re: Home invasion and several cases where Criminals ended up suing Victims for injuries received "during" the crime. <where will it all end.>The Aust wide controls were put in place following the Port Arthur Massacre where 18? people were killed by a lone Gunman. Nobody, NOBODY! condones that sort of behaviour - but we as a country, having experienced several years of prohibition, are again coming to the conclusion that the protection of life and property is sacrosanct in society and ALL methods to achieve this must be at the disposal of the populace. Peter Asher (01/22/01; 03:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46120) Journeyman (01/21/01; 22:51:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46109) http://washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A23628-2001Jan20?language=printer Re >>> the Clinton Administration added 870 new pages of regulations to the FederalRegister on Thursday, this on top of the 29,000 -- that's right, twenty-nine thousand -- new pagesthey previously added in the last three months.<<<<Bush Scrambles to Block Clinton Rush Orders By Eric PianinWashington Post Staff WriterSunday, January 21, 2001 ; Page A18 Under orders from Bush, White House chief of staff Andrew H. Card Jr. instructed the Government Printing Office to halt publication in the Federal Register of any new rules "toensure that the president's appointees have the opportunity to review any new or pending regulations."Final regulations have the force of law once they are printed in the Federal Register, the government's official organ. The new administration also issued a 60-day stay on regulations that were published in the register but have not yet taken effect."The whole myriad of regulations he signed while he was walking out the door should be looked at," said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Pete V. Domenici (R-N.M.). "Clinton had four years of a second term to do some of those, and because he does them all right now makes them all suspect." Black Blade (01/22/01; 03:09:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46119) Bush, governor differ on drilling http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/krmiami/20010121/lo/bush_governor_differ_on_drilling_1.html By Gregg Fields , Gfields@herald.Com A massive fight over development of Florida's natural gas fields is likely to be one of the first big environmental tests of the new Bush administration. The reason: George W. Bush's fervent support for domestic energy development would appear to be a direct conflict with his backing for states' rights -- given that Floridians, including the president's brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, have opposed the project. ``That hasn't changed,'' Elizabeth Hirst, a spokeswoman for the governor, said this week. The controversy concerns the so-called Destin Dome, 25 miles due south of Pensacola's beautiful beaches in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron, which leased the Destin Dome from the federal government years ago, has determined that the area is one of the richest natural gas fields in the country. Chevron lacks only a green light from the U.S. Secretary of Commerce to begin production. It failed to get one in the Clinton years, however, in large part because of Florida's opposition.Black Blade: Brother against brother, Hmmm… Black Blade (01/22/01; 03:04:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46118) Calif. Suffers Third Series of Blackouts http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010121/o.html By Nigel Hunt LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California suffered its third series of blackouts in less than a week on Sunday, with some customers of municipal utilities in the northern half of the state losing power for about 20 minutes, according to a statement issued by California's electric grid manager. The latest outage, affecting around 120,000 people was far less widespread than blackouts on Wednesday and Thursday, both of which cut off about two million of the 34 million residents in the nation's richest and most populous state. The California Independent System Operator (ISO), which manages around 75 percent of the state's power grid, said the outage was caused by transmission problems which originated at a substation around 90 miles east of Portland, Ore. ``The California ISO does not forecast further outages tonight, but is keeping a close eye on any transmission problems,'' the statement said. All three series of blackouts have only covered northern California with customers in the south of the state yet to experience any service interruptions. Earlier Sunday, the ISO had said it expected to squeak through the next couple of days without further rolling blackouts, with some of the state's aged fleet of power plants poised to return to service. The state is suffering a chronic power shortage which has its roots both in insufficient supply and in a credit crisis caused by the near bankruptcy of its two leading utilities. To meet demand, California utilities have been forced to pay skyrocketing prices for wholesale electricity on the spot market. But they are not permitted to pass through their full costs to consumers under the state's 1996 deregulation law. The burden has taken San Francisco-based Pacific Gas & Electric, a unit of PG&E Corp., and Edison International unit Southern California Edison, which is based just outside Los Angeles, to the brink of bankruptcy. Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, although still generally popular, has been targeted by critics who believe he has not acted decisively to tackle the state's chronic power shortage and the near bankruptcy of its two largest utilities. ``He is looking for a solution that will work, not a solution for the moment. He wants legislation that is going to fix this once and for all,'' Davis' spokesman Steve Maviglio told Reuters on Sunday. The state's two main utilities have seen their debt ratings cut to junk status. Power sellers have been reluctant to do business with them, exacerbating the shortage of electricity. Last week Davis signed legislation which allocated $400 million for the California Department of Water Resources to buy power on behalf of the utilities and their 24 million customers who account for 70 percent of the state's population. In a poll published late last week, the Public Policy Institute of California found that while Davis received a 63 percent approval rating as governor, a clear majority of 62 percent disapproved of his efforts to solve the power crisis. The findings mirrored similar results from a Los Angeles Times poll published earlier this month. Maviglio said the governor was continuing to hold talks over the weekend with state lawmakers and his staff. They are trying to design an auction at which the state would receive offers from power producers to buy electricity under long-term contracts. Electricity can be bought much more cheaply through long-term deals. Many expect prices to fall significantly when the current chronic shortage starts to ease after the summer of 2002 as planned power plants come on line. California's power problems are also rooted in the absence of any significant new plant construction during the last decade, partly due to uncertainly connected with the state's much criticized deregulation legislation. Maviglio said Davis hoped to finalize the auction scheme by the middle of the week. He noted that Davis has also talked of appointing a ``power plant czar'' to speed up the construction of new plants. Many of the state's plants are currently more than 30 years old and have been breaking down with alarming frequency. ISO spokeswoman Stephanie McCorkle said by Monday around 9,000 megawatts or one-fifth of all available power would be off line, well below the recent peak of about 15,000 MW and also significantly below the 10,700 MW which was out of action on Friday. One megawatt is enough to supply around 1,000 people. The ISO extended a so-called stage three emergency through midnight on Monday, its highest level of alert and one that is called when reserves drop to around 1.5 percent of demand, considered a critically low amount. McCorkle noted that the ISO temporarily lifted its stage three alert on Saturday morning but was quickly forced to reinstate it. ``We had some rough moments yesterday morning,'' she said, noting that lifting of the stage three cut off the flow of electricity from some key suppliers in the Pacific Northwest. ``The Northwest doesn't have that many megawatts, so California does have to be on the brink of blackouts to get that power,'' she said. Wholesale prices in California started to soar in late spring with supplies struggling to keep pace with surging demand linked to a buoyant economy and growing population. Black Blade: Seems as if it is northern Kalifornia that is "sacrificed" for southern Kalifornia (where the most votes are). Ever watch a Clint Eastwood "Dirty Harry" flick and notice the slimey liberal politicians trying to be all "Fuzzy and warm" toward the criminal element? Now just try to imagine these "freaks of nature" trying to solve an energy crisis – something well out of their area of expertise. I would love to be a fly on the wall during those proceedings. Commissar Davis has now appointed a "power plant czar" – sounds like a "man with a plan." ;-) Looks as if Hydro-Carbon Man is about to get a life lesson in reality. "And the Grasshoppers played, danced and sang all summer…" Topaz (01/22/01; 02:53:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46117) Thai D-uh, my mistake, I misread the figure!Yes, I looked the other day - most was "under const'n" will go back as time permits.How did the babyphoto turn out? Black Blade (01/22/01; 02:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46116) Natural Gas Supply Issue Reaches Crisis Level: Suppliers Have Said They May Pull Up to Two-Thirds of Needed Gas Due to California Energy Crisis CONTACT: PG&E News Department (415) 973-5930SAN FRANCISCO - Pacific Gas and Electric Company has been notified by six of its natural gas suppliers, accounting for 36 percent of daily supply, that they have stopped, or may stop delivering gas by January 23. In addition, several other suppliers, accounting for another 30 percent of daily supplies, have told the utility that they are considering stopping deliveries.The withdrawal of gas deliveries brings Northern and Central California close to the brink of natural gas shortages in the middle of winter, which could threaten the health and safety of millions of Californians. As a result of these withdrawals, natural gas could be cut to homes, hospitals, businesses, refineries and power plants."As California continues to struggle with an energy crisis and the financial havoc it has created for the state's utilities, we face the very real possibility of natural gas shortages in the coming weeks," said Gordon R. Smith, president and CEO of Pacific Gas and Electric Company. "We have done our best to call attention to this crisis and obtain assistance to avert a catastrophe, and now we must wait to see if the state and federal governments will step in to ensure that natural gas flows to homes and businesses in Northern and Central California."Pacific Gas and Electric Company has taken a number of steps to try and avert the looming crisis. The company:Informed Governor Davis of the problem on Jan. 9 and asked him to consider using his emergency powers to help avert gas shortages by providing short-term financial assistance so gas suppliers will sell to the cash-strapped utility. Met with its 25-30 key suppliers on Jan. 10 to urge them to continue to deliver gas under normal payment arrangements. Requested on Jan. 12 that President Clinton declare a natural gas supply emergency. The suppliers which have withdrawn supplies as of Jan. 17, or have stated that they may pull supplies in the coming days, include two of Pacific Gas and Electric Company's largest suppliers, J. Aron & Co., the trading arm of Goldman Sachs in New York, and Sempra Energy Trading of Stamford, Connecticut. The other suppliers are Western Gas Resources, Inc. of Denver; Duke Energy Trading of Houston; Coastal Merchant Energy of Houston; and Natural Gas Exchange of Calgary, Alberta. The situation has occurred because Pacific Gas and Electric Company could not pay in advance or on delivery, a significant change in payment terms demanded by suppliers. The company has exhausted its cash and credit because of the high wholesale electricity prices in California.To cover the shortfall caused by the pulled gas supplies and the fact that other suppliers will not sell to Pacific Gas and Electric Company, the utility is quickly depleting its natural gas in storage. The stored gas is expected to be depleted by early February if the current rate of withdrawal continues. If more suppliers stop their deliveries, the utility's stored gas will be consumed more quickly.In addition to the immediate crisis created by the halt in gas deliveries, the company has been able to purchase only about 60 percent of the gas it expects customers to need each day in February. Therefore, an even greater crisis is expected in February once storage supplies are depleted and inadequate supplies are flowing into the state.If Pacific Gas and Electric Company is not able to obtain enough gas for residential and small business customers, the rules of the California Public Utilities Commission require the utility to divert gas from noncore (large industrial) consumers, among which are power plants that need natural gas to generate electricity. However, the result will be an even worse electricity shortage than the state is currently suffering. Some power plant operators have stated that they will send their gas out of California to prevent it from being used by residential and small business customers. Other noncore customers whose gas could be diverted include hospitals, military bases and universities."Diverting natural gas from some of our customers in order to serve others is not an acceptable solution, but we would do it in order to preserve gas for our residential customers who need heat in the middle of winter," said Smith. "What we need is for gas suppliers to continue to sell their gas to Pacific Gas and Electric Company on regular terms, and with an ordinary payment schedule."Black Blade: There were more blackouts today in northern Kalifornia. Apparently a major transformer could not handle the load and popped. Looks as if the infrastructure is giving way now. Now cash reserves ($12 billion)of the Peoples Socialist Republik of Kalifornia are likely to be exhausted as Commissar Davis signs away cash to bail out the Republik's Utes. They now are trying to build some power plants. I will go out on a limb here - I would guess that they are powered by what? - Natural Gas? - Oh Boy! Life is about to become very "interesting" for the Grasshoppers. "...And the Grasshoppers danced, sang, and played all summer..." Black Blade (01/22/01; 02:38:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46115) Wow! I leave for a couple a days to Whack Ducks, and the place has gone bonkers! MASONIC BIBLE?The bible that some refer to as the "Masonic" bible, is none other than the King James version that was used during the inaugurations of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Andrew Jackson, among others. Funny thing though, I don't ever recall there being a "Masonic" bible. I guess by Masonic brothers just have kept me "out of the loop" on that one. ;-)Before you know it, someone will claimed that I'm "Illuminated?" Whatever the hell that is. FLORIDA ELECTIONAs far as the election results are concerned, the Florida count was amusing and the Demopublicans waged war on each other over "chads." No one seems to bother to mention that with the recount in Palm County, and the recount by the press in Miami-Dade, it appears that George Dubya is the winner in spite of the oppositions legal battles to disenfranchise the military vote and all those who did not vote in the western part of the state because the press informed them that the election was over for Florida even though the polls weren't closed. Then again, the opposition is not too keen on having the results of the 3 million absentee ballots revealed either. The absentee ballots are generally military and ex-pat business people, and they lean heavily toward Bush's crowd. Also, we are supposedly a Representative Republic and not a Democracy as some would like to think. Thank God! If we were a Democracy, then those of us in the greater landmass of the US with smaller populations would have the Grasshoppers run roughshod over the rest of us. As far as I know, there never has been a true Democracy except some feeble attempts in Ancient Greece. Even then, they failed miserably as the people realized that they could vote themselves the stores of the treasury – which they did. End of story.BTW, I liked the various methods of protest by the protestors at the inauguration as they provided some comic relief. I especially liked the naked chick with the sign around her neck "Fur – Not Bush." Hey – what can I say, I'm a hetero kind a guy. PH in LA: This Al Gore fella, he's a friend of yours? Personally I hate all scumbag politicians, but then I have always thought that there was something seriously-fundamentally wrong with people who wanted to rule over the lives of others. But then, that's just me. I mean, there is a fundamental weakness in people who "need" or "desire" someone to rule over them. That is the reason why I have a difficult time understanding the Brits. Why would a people want to be ruled over by a family of inbreds for several hundred years - generation after generation? Why they had a perfect chance with Cromwell to change things. Go figure! I guess when that question is answered, then we will know why Americans are so passionate about having scumbag politicians rule over them. The way I see it, the only difference between the Demopublicans is that the Democrat side wants control how I make my money, while the Republican half wants to control what I spend it on. Oh yeah, BTW, there was a "Got Milk" commercial in the works starring the Democrat pin-up girl Monica Lewinsky, however, it was pulled because some took offense. Personally I find the very thought of this chick with a milk moustache as being quite hilarious given the circumstances. ThaiGold (01/22/01; 01:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46114) Attn: Topaz & Randy@Tower ... Close Only Counts in HorseShoes ... Hi Topaz:Whatta ya mean "the closest" .?.I'm way outta range, aren't I.?.Hey guy.. did you checkout my website yet.?.http://users.sisna.com/ThaiRanch/EagleRanch/index.htmIt's written in AuzzieGlish. You can handle it.Hi Randy:Maybe you can post a listing of what guess's have been madeso-far for the benefit of others coming along, so as not to havethem inadvertantly overlay the same POG guess figure.?.Just a suggestion. Dangit. Doit.!.Cords..ThaiGold Topaz (01/22/01; 01:22:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46113) Thai HI Thai,So far you're the closest!!!"citin ain't it!!! ThaiGold (01/22/01; 00:55:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46112) >>>========= $275.00 ==========> ...POG Contest Entry... ThaiGold is going to guess the closing price of the Feb Gold Futures Contractas of Friday, January 26, 2001 will be:>>>========= $275.00 ==========>And here is why I believe that:Gold (paper gold) futures contracts have been the tool-of-choice for severalyears by those who would "manipulate" the Price of Gold (POG) down. There aremyriad different theories who, where, and why is/are responsible for doing so.Indeed, some even theorize that it is *not* happening whatsoever.I have my own distinct theory, and it is a contrarian one. Not mainstream.Many months ago I mentioned it in one of my "PATSY Index" posts herein. Itwas ignored by everyone.But I tried again, to put it forward to the Forum, in a different way, severalweeks ago. Maybe you remember: It was a two part Essay, sort of a parable/storyof "Phantom Thai Rice Merchants". And again, nobody commented one way or theother. I guess they didn't get it. I am not a very good writer. Mea Culpa.Okay. Here's my theory, in a black-n-white nutshell:If you were a super-rich person; entity; or group; who preferred to have themajority of your income and/or wealth in the form of solid gold, you wouldneed to purchase it somewhere. From a market. Typically, a Futures Market orin bigger chunks, from the LBMA (London Bullion Merchant Association).And, since initially your income is derived from US Dollar payment sources;and you feel you are not getting fair value for your sold-product; and if youwish to maximize your gold-exchange quantity for those (unwanted) US Dollars;and if you already (accumulated over the years) have a great amount of gold;it would be to your great advantage to use some of your accumulated gold, to(in a fully legal manner) "flood the market" with it; to drive the price ofgold down temporarily; and then jump in at the low-point and buy back your"flood" gold *plus* the next increment of new gold which you are wishing topurchase, at the lowest possible price.It's quite easy, because of the "sell stops" used by futures traders andspeculators. Once you flood a little bit into the market, it trips the sell stops, and those other traders must sell out their positions to preventfurther losses. And so the price snowballs lower. And lower. And lower.There's also a BandWagon effect whereby astute traders and "conipulators"consort with you, and amongst themselves, to participate likewise at thesame lucrative and insider-knowledgeable timing points. It's just so easy.At that target point, you reverse your selling flood and start buying golddiscretely, in modest chunks until you have reached your gold goal. And thenyou repeat the process a few days later when you need to repeat the wholecontrivance for the next product-to-dollar-to-gold "exchange".That would take a lot of US Dollar money wouldn't it. Yes. And who has suchgreat quantities of income-money, on a regular basis.?. Answer: OPEC & DRUGs.I have noticed a correlation between the price (lowering) manipulations ofthe gold market: Seems to parallel the price/income graphs of Crude Oil pricesand the resultant up-n-down income that OPEC members would derive from that.Put two and two together, and it makes sense. For them. But not for GoldBugs.As for the Drug Trafficking monies, I have no charts nor direct knowledge ofmagnitude nor ups-n-downs of that income. But I'm certain it's there, and isaffecting the gold market(s) in similar ways. And just as frequently.But wait... "The Rest of the Story" (to paraphrase Paul Harvey): Just as inmy two-part Phantom Thai Rice Merchant parable, the plot thickens. There'smore to it. A lot more. ... Spawned by the above. And I wish to continuethis theory in a second installment, which will be (if MK/USAgold allows)the basis of my Contest Entry Essay for the second-part of this Contest,(in a later/subsequent post) with the subject line:"**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****" So watch for it, coming soon.Hence, at this point in time, I feel the POG will languish within it'snormal (manipulated) range, with some slight upward pressure due to thenew Bush Administration taking over the reigns of power/Treasury/etc.My theory encompasses US Government cooperation(s) with some or all ofthe above, to have allowed it to thrive for so many years. And it involvesa whole slew of jump-on-the-bandwagon Banks, Brokerages, Bullion Banks,and Central Banks. It's a real Can of Worms.!. Trust me.I hope this finally makes sense to the Forum members. If not, I'll try againsome other day; some other way; some other Contest.Stay tuned..Cordially,ThaiGoldThaiGold@OperaMail.Com=============================================================================== Topaz (01/22/01; 00:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46111) >>>>>>>======= $264.20 ========>>>> Ok, (against a rising POG) let's see Randy!For some reason yet to be made clear, the sale of 25 tons of Au from the BoE is more often than not preceded by an up-tick - and the price "settles" shortly after. Why this is so is a mistery to me as the daily t/over at the LBMA is MANY multiples of the aforementioned 25T.The first indication of a future physical/paper de-couple perhaps! ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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