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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/22/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
ET
(09/22/00; 22:46:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 37285)
Hedge funds
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/brettfromson/1088004.html
From the article;
Perhaps the best reason not to worry about the new, improved
Meriwether is that he doesn't command as much money as he used
to. The document talks about a "hypothetical $1 billion," but
hedge-fund managers and traders say that, in fact, Meriwether
raised less than half that. So, if you assume he levers $500 million
15 times, he could still only get to $7.5 billion in positions. That is
far less than the $100 billion in bets he once commanded.
Why didn't he raise more dough? As one potential investor who
declined the offer says, "Their fees are too high, and they have not
promised to limit leverage enough for our comfort."
Sometimes markets are rational.
Black Blade
(09/22/00; 22:34:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37284)
RE: Van Rip
Speculation is hanging over this oil market that Saddam Hussein may just cut back a like amount of oil to negate the increase of the SPR oil. Though that is not necessary because the additional oil is not needed. New refineries are needed. Now, if the price of oil falls, wouldn't now be the perfect time to shut down for the long delayed scheduled maintenance and get oil after it has hopefully dropped in price. Just a thought.
BoneDaddy, my thoughts exactly, especially about Wee Willy needing a pardon. It has been stated by Ken Starr that he could still face charges after he leaves office. Some legacy - a legacy of lechery!
Black Blade
(09/22/00; 22:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 37283)
"Oh,........What a Strange Day It's Been! - (Grateful Dead - "Truckin")
THE EURO "PUMP-AND-DUMP!
It looks as if the intervention on the Euro was just a pathetic ploy to pump it a little prior to the Danish vote on whether or not to join. It didn't seem to really help the Euro though as it fell back some as a result of "profit-taking". I'm afraid that the Euro is headed toward failure and then oblivion. The dollar proved too strong for this failed currency and gold fell back off it's highs in "sympathy". Hopefully the EU will actually begin to seriously support the Euro, but it looks as if they have effectively given up and are just waiting to see who will be the first to start burying the corpse.
PETROLEUM
Petroleum prices started to firm up and then fall back prior to Wee Willy's announcement that SPR oil would be added to inventories. At a total of 30 million barrels this doe not help at all. Refinery capacity is at over 95%, so this does not help at all. Enough supply arrives at the refineries for "Just-In-Time delivery, so this does not help at all. Now with the prospect of additional oil from the SPR stockpile it looks as if prices might temporarily stabilize or drop. This causes a problem as well – what refinery will pay for and take possession of oil during a period of falling prices? The problem is and always has been – refinery capacity! Tuesday, everyone should keep their eyes on the API inventories for distillates such as vehicle fuels and heating oil. One will gain at the expense of the others. The SPR release could do nothing more than add fuel to the fire so to speak. BTW, heating oil inventories are 65% below last year's levels and I already feel a chill in the air. In effect – nothing has changed. Natural gas fell in "sympathy" with oil, yet NG is still far below last year's storage levels and is likely to become the real story in the petroleum news this year. It looks as if this could back fire on the Dems as everyone knows that this is a political favor to Al Gore and nothing else. Even those at the very top in the Whitehouse did not appear to be very anxious about releasing SPR supplies.
RE: Canuck: I don't know what to think about the price movement in the FN-GOLD merger/dissolution. The price loss with the merger announcement signaled (to me at least) that FN got the short end of the stick. I'm not sure if the most recent loss was because all Au stocks got pummeled, or because of the dissolution announcement. I thick that FN is better off to go it alone since they make a profit, have no real liability associated with mining, and are absolutely debt free (zero –nada!). Unfortunately some predatory miner like Barrick will probably grab it and strip it of its best assets and then spit it out like a used whore. At least that's my take on it. BTW, Congratulations on sure POG guess! Cheers! – Black Blade
Bonedaddy
(09/22/00; 22:17:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 37282)
Peter and ALL
Peter, great line: "The Energy Industry could buy downtown Hollywood lock stock and barrel and turn it into a golf course!"
That would put some "windfall" profits to work for the forces of good. (I could really rant about some of the great minds out in Hollywood, but I'm in a sublime mood tonight.) When I checked out the news this morning and saw that there was intervention on behalf of the Euro, I wanted to come directly here to the forum and read the analysis. The first thought I had after the coffee hit was, "I wonder who was short the Euro?" Somebody's taking a long weekend trying to figure out how to explain this one to the boss on Monday. What are the chances that this turns into a LTCM bail out? What if the bail out no workie? (Is it time to wake up Leroy?)
These are "interesting" times my friends.
1)Saddam is moving troops around inside Iraq.
2)Clinton is looking to squander the SPR. And he NEEDS to get ALGORE elected. (I doubt Dubya would pardon the current felon in chief.)
3)The stock market is looking for a cliff to fall off.
4)Tactically, it would be a great time to start a fracas in the middle east. The US(lack of)leadership would have to conduct polls and focus groups to decide what action to take.
5)And now, SUPRISE! If a major hedge fund is short the Euro, who will orchestrate the bailout?
The paper tigers may fight, but no winner will be named among them. The men behind the paper are greedy, pale, and weak. Their paper is a reflection of their nature.
Only a few see that GOLD has already won.
ET
(09/22/00; 22:16:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 37281)
Markets
http://www.latimes.com/business/20000922/t000089812.html
From the article;
"As the meter runs on California's electricity
crisis, shock over this summer's price spikes is giving
way to a new concern: uncertainty over whether and
how the state's three investor-owned utilities can
collect the staggering amounts in power costs they
haven't been allowed to pass through to consumers.
"The unanswered question is how high the
bill--now $4 billion and counting--will go, and
whether consumers will foot all or part of it. And
that there are no easy answers--perhaps short of an
overhaul of the state's deregulated power market, or
legislation from officials seemingly reluctant to
act--only adds to the growing anxiety.
"Rate freezes in effect at Southern California
Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric and San Diego Gas &
Electric, which serve about three-quarters of the
state's residents and businesses, are forcing the
utilities to borrow an estimated $1 billion a month to
cover their added wholesale costs. Those loans are
draining the companies' resources and threatening
their financial structure, analysts say.
"The rising unpaid balance presents a longer-term
burden that worries Wall Street, the state's business
interests and, of course, the utilities. If passed along
to consumers, the amount could ultimately negate
the promised benefits of cheap energy that were the
reason for being for the landmark deregulation of
California's electricity industry. But making the
utilities absorb the entire "undercollections" would
strike a grievous financial blow to the companies."
Geez - what a quandry! The free market is intersecting with our collectivist friends in California. Obviously the 'promised benefits' have not measured up. I'd say it's even money the utility investors take it in the shorts, this being California and all. PG&E will no doubt soon be nationalized just like LA's law enforcement. It's amazing what you can do with a few bucks these days!
VanRip
(09/22/00; 22:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37280)
BLACK BLADE, OTHERS
I often have heard that Saddam Hussein, through his agents, will, over time, accumulate humongous positions in the oil futures markets, then create some sort of condition (bullish or bearish) that will allow him to cash in and reap huge profits. Any truth to this that you know of? Thanks in advance. Sorry if this has been discussed before.
Peter Asher
(09/22/00; 22:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 37279)
Continuation of msg#: 37274)
Re >>>Watch the news....You would not be surprised if you see next week that some producer is asking for payment in hard currency: GOLD!!!! <<<
If I'm right, that's the last thing they'd do. It would pop the price up and the "Cat would be out of the bag."
I posted last winter that GS, the Bullion banks and even the Central Banks could be being set up to be the "Fall Guy's." This"Gold hold down" is a very big game and one of these days we are going to see "The Sting" occur!
If I had chosen the other topic in the contest of what would have to happen for gold to break out? I think I would have suggested ; A truly major oil find outside of the ME.
Perplexed
(09/22/00; 22:02:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37278)
How bout this
DATE LINE---NEWARK, N.J
In less than half a year, Jonathan G Lebed earned more than a quarter million dollars trading stocks on the Internet--though he was only a sophomore in hight school.
But the boy's gains were wiped out Wednesday when the Securities and Exchange Commission brought civil fraud charges claiming he made his money through 11 illegal maniplations involving nine stocks.
Labed, now a 15 year old junior, agreed to repay $285,000 which the SEC said represented illegal profits and interest. He neither admitted nor denied the allegations but agreed to refrain from similar behavior. It is the first time the agency has brought charges against a minor.
The teen-ager, a resident of Cedar Grove in northern New Jersey, said his interest in the stock market began at age 11 watching the financial network CNBC.
"It intrigeud me wathcing all the numbers go by on television", he told the Wall Street Journal. "I've always been interested in business--any kind of ,politics finance,anything of that nature."
A year later--at 12--he was putting money from his savings account into stocks.
Lebed allegedly reaped profits with a "pump and dump" buying large blocks of thinly traded stocks, hyping them on financial message boards on the Internet and then--within 24 hours--dumping his shares after the price rose.
The ll trades cited by the SEC represented a fraction of the thousands of transactions Lebed made since he was 12, said Joy Thompson, associate director of the agency's Philadelphia office, which handled the case.
The trades, from custodial accounts in his father's name at two brokers, took place from Aug.23,1999 to Feb. 4,2000. Officials said there was no indication his parents knew anything about alleged illegal activities.
"He's a good student," his father, Gregory Lebed told reporters. He said he could not comment on his son's case but told The New York Times: "They pick on a kid."
Dumb Kid, it's only legal for citizens to manipulate gold and for the government to manipulate stocks, they hate competition. His conviction will probably be negated if he agrees to join the Plunge Protection Team.
Sounds to me like Reno should file charges against CNBC for contributing to the delinquency of a minor. Against the brokerage firms for aiding and abetting criminal activity.
And his parents for neglect of a child.
Why not, they do it against gun manufactures.
Still Perplexed
Bobbo
(09/22/00; 21:44:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 37277)
Happy Birthday USAGOLD!!!!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY USAGOLD!!!!
Buena Fe
(09/22/00; 21:43:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 37276)
Cozy Cozy
French aircraft lands in Baghdad despite sanctions
A French aircraft said to be carrying 60 doctors, sportsmen and writers landed at the newly reopened Saddam International Airport in Baghdad, defying UN sanctions imposed on Iraq after the country's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The French trip to Baghdad was scheduled to last three to four days and aimed at breaking Iraq's isolation from the international community, according to an official from Air Partner, who helped arrange the flight.
Peter Asher
(09/22/00; 21:43:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37275)
megatron (09/22/00; 21:15:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 37272)
"They're 'keeping American families warm this winter'!
Right, they "put them all in the hot seat."
Peter Asher
(09/22/00; 21:39:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 37274)
Leigh (09/22/00; 19:29:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 37261)& ALL
He said >>> There is no incentive to stick with the dollar. First they control gold price, then they attempt to control oil price. <<<
It's all a matter of how many ounces of Gold they get for X- number of barrels. If Oil begetting dollars which beget gold works best, then it aint broke.
In the "To be written when the rains come" folder, I have a concept titled:
Oil Talks and Gold Walks"
So here goes a quickie on it
I have long suspected that the REAL game behind Gold being held down is so the Saudis can accumulate it. That could be why Gold and Oil have gone in opposite directions these last two years.
Remember FOA and or Another pointed out that the Saudis have ONLY this one depleting resource and the only way to store genuine wealth inside their borders is by accumulating Gold.
The question has been raised occasional as to why they would want a constantly declining commodity? Well the answer is they aren't out of Oil yet and are still on the buy side.
This is more of what I was getting into in this early AMs post answering Black Blade.
Many have pointed out here that no-one ever reports on who buys these gold sales. But they transpire without much price drop every time It is the News ABOUT the sales that drops the price and the manipulators know that news of an impending sale drops the price more that an after-the-fact report and of course creates the better buying opportunity.
It has also been asked often here why some big player doesn't make a buy run and trigger the short squeeze panic to make a killing. My answer is that the BIG players are in it to Buy And Hold!
Think about it.
.And therefore: Buying Physical gold is definitely. "Following The Money."
ET
(09/22/00; 21:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 37273)
Markets
http://216.46.231.211/bearthoughts.htm
From the report;
"The COT report was released this afternoon, and it
appears the commercial traders (the "smart money")
have increased their net short position in the S&P
futures to yet another new record. Gold's traders'
commitments improved somewhat from two weeks ago as
commercials have almost doubled their net long
position.
"This weekend we have the G7 meeting, and there may or
may not be some surprises out of that, but it appears
the surprise intervention ammo in both the euro and
oil has been spent. Today was certainly a
disappointing one for the bears, but it doesn't change
the resolution of this mania. One of these mornings in
the very near future, we're going to open down like we
did this morning except the selling isn't going to
stop. It will simply build and build and build, and
today's action convinces me even more that we are very
close to that type of day..."
megatron
(09/22/00; 21:15:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 37272)
Peter Asher
But Peter!! They're 'keeping American families warm this winter'! That's so rich I nearly died laughing when I heard Richardson say it. That's your symbolic analyst grade A crap right there. If Bill Richardson gave 1 ^%$^ about 'American families' he would abolish capital gains tax etc. How quick they laid down the intervention 'card'.
That really was a give-away about what they are all about, a'la gold/silver.
Peter Asher
(09/22/00; 21:10:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 37271)
ET (09/22/00; 20:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 37268)
Thanks for the quote and the link to the whole article. Saved it for later reading.
He really has it covered, even in that short part you posted.
Peter Asher
(09/22/00; 21:03:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 37270)
JavaMan (9/22/2000; 18:28:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37255)
First, thanks for the conrgats, I had fun writing it. I hope the folks up there at The Kit 'n Kaboodle Club have a sense of humor. (;-))
You asked >> Peter, so...the US consumes 18.5 million barrels of oil per day. What impact can 30 million
barrels from the SPR have? <<
Well, 30 million devided by the 800,000 per day increase from OPEC comes out to 37 1/2 days of whatever benifit that increase will give. It's on line sooner but from all the processing data we have from Black Blade, it makes no difference. As others are saying tonight, it's the psychological factor, whatever that may be. Something inversely proportional to the square of the IQ of the median sheeple divided by the closing price of Dec gold on next Tuesday, if it doesn't rain in Taiwan.
I'm sure you get my drift here.
Meanwhile back at the "Polls", that current bastion of creative reporting: you have the truly stupid people who think that the Dems are here to help them, and the slightly intelligent minority who understand this Oil is for when the tankers aren't arriving at our ports. Then there may be out there a few genuinely aware folks who don't post here, that wonder if there might not be something illegal about buying votes with our basic survival stock piles.
Of course foreign powers hostile to our well being would never notice that our capabilities are lowered. Hah! They must be laughing their tails off.
Can you spell Treason!!
VanRip
(09/22/00; 21:00:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 37269)
(No Subject)
HAPPY BIRTHDAY USAGOLD
Michael,
You have attracted a large number of very talented individuals to your site. It is because of YOUR talent that they are here. You, dear sir, deserve all the credit for the success of USAGOLD. You should feel proud for what you have accomplished. Many thanks. Happy birthday and many more to come.
ET
(09/22/00; 20:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 37268)
Credit
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
From Doug Noland's latest;
"What a week. And for anyone that is tempted to downplay the
extraordinary nature of the current environment, keep in
mind that the President of the United States this afternoon
has decided to tap our country's emergency crude oil reserves,
the first such move during peacetime. Intel, arguably one of
the most important companies in the world, yesterday shocks
the investment community with disappointing earnings news.
And then this morning, for the first time since 1995,
European, Japanese and American authorities executed a
coordinated global currency intervention."
"We have entered a critical period in financial history. It is
now definitely time to "get one's house in order." The
approaching storm clouds may not look all that ominous at
first glance, and are in fact peculiarly invisible to the vast
majority. Nevertheless, if Doplar radar existed to identify
financial storm systems, it would now be tracking a series of
funnel clouds heading right for Wall Street.
"But there will be no talk of crisis, no discussion of acute
financial fragility. From Washington will come more New Era
propaganda and, undoubtedly, the infamous adage
"underlying fundamentals of our economy are sound" at any
serious bending in market confidence. And throughout Wall
Street, the phrase "company specific" will play like the
proverbial broken record. But such propaganda is blatantly
detached from a reality fraught with great uncertainty and
extreme financial risk. The feeling that we have passed a
momentous inflection point is almost palpable. Yet, as so
many things fall increasingly into a state of flux, the facade of
a sound and stable prosperity is coveted and protected with
more intensity than ever. All the same, be fully prepared
going forward for extraordinary financial turbulence and
considerable confusion. The bottom line remains that there
exists a historic gap between the unfathomable financial
wealth created during this great credit bubble and actual
underlying economic wealth creating capacity. True wealth
cannot be created by printing up securities or by electronic
entries. Nor is true wealth determined by a stock's point of
last sale. This gap will be closed; immense perceived wealth
will disappear."
USAGOLD
(09/22/00; 20:31:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 37267)
A Toast. . .
I want to thank all of you for making this a memorable celebration. Happy Birthday, USAGOLD FORUM. It's been quite a year. . . .The castle treasury will receive a visit this evening. The golden prizes dusted off. The outpouring here is a bit more than we expected. It is difficult to put in words how much your very kind words mean to us. We enjoy offering as much as you enjoy visiting this hallowed hall.
Ladies and gentlemen, lift up your glasses. . . .
"To the Table. . ."
"Hip, Hip, Hurrah!!"
"Hip, Hip, Hurrah!!"
"Hip, Hip, Hurrah!!"
Cavan Man
(09/22/00; 20:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 37266)
PS: USAGOLD
Great palce to kibbitz!
Leigh
(09/22/00; 19:54:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37265)
megatron, Galerias
You guys need to shop around! One internet PM dealer had a special going a few hours ago selling 500 silver rounds for $5.00 each. I just checked back on that site and the special is no longer listed, but what a great deal while it lasted!
JavaMan
(09/22/00; 19:45:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37264)
Thanks Leigh...
In terms of "impact", its my position that there would be nothing positive to come from Clinton's efforts to intervene in the markets. And your article seems to concur. Wouldn't it be ironic if Clinton turns out to be our 5th horseman? Directly responsible for the fulfillment of all that we talk about here? Hah! What a legacy that would be.
megatron
(09/22/00; 19:42:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 37263)
To All posters!!! especially Galerias
Yes it is true! I picked up 50 silver Maple leafs today in Canada, and paid $2 more per coin than last year when it was at $5.10. $2 MORE!!!!!!! This has obviously got to give.
This is surely an anomolie HAHAHAHAHA. There's lot's of silver right? Maybe if I whine loud enough the gov't will release some from it's strategic reserves.............................Hmmmm Oh yeah, I forgot, Canada sold ALL it's reserves.F#^%$^^^ing morons!
RossL
(09/22/00; 19:42:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 37262)
Happy Birthday - USAGOLD Forum
This is post #100 on the birthday. A very successful party. I hope all the newly converted lurkers keep on posting their thoughts.
Leigh
(09/22/00; 19:29:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 37261)
More from Mr. Azteca de Oro
The author believes that the GOLD WEAPON might be used now by some oil producers. There is no incentive to stick with the dollar. First they control gold price, then they attempt to control oil price.
Watch the news....You would not be surprised if you see next week that some producer is asking for payment in hard currency: GOLD!!!!
Or maybe they will just tapper off a bit the valves, no need to damage the fields by overproducing them if oil price is going down.
The dice have been rolled....Much higher Inflation is around the corner. It just has been delayed a few months. Only those that know how to hedge against it will survive. We all know what is the only hedge that works....REAL Money!!!! Gold!!!!
___________
Leigh says: Sounds like ANOTHER with a South American name. ANOTHER has spent years trying to warn us of this very thing.
Leigh
(09/22/00; 19:16:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 37260)
JavaMan
It's at the Kiki Table. Here is Bill Murphy's summary of it, which he sent LeMetropole members by e-mail:
"Azteca de Oro" has served commentary at The Kiki Table entitled, "Energy Market Intervention - The Oil Weapon - The Gold.
"Unbelievably, the US government has intervened in the Energy Markets, by releasing oil from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) the same way a Socialist or Communist regime would do.
"While we are not here to discuss the politics of this issue, but to clarify the danger that the US is facing now, it is imperative that the reader understands that this action is a direct intervention to normal market forces and that it is going against a market that is trying to re-establish the lost balance between supply and demand, between pricing power and real value."
JavaMan
(09/22/00; 19:12:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 37259)
Ooops...
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGASENOCGDC.html
forgot the "link above".
JavaMan
(09/22/00; 19:10:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 37258)
Hi Leigh...
Well...I was all over that site and didn't see the article you mentioned. Do I have to be a member?
In the mean time, the link above is from a press release today. From the link:
"It remains unclear what impact a modest injection of government-owned oil into the market will have on prices. Some analysts have said it probably would have little more than a psychological effect as a signal from the government that it is willing to intervene...
The president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that any drawdown of U.S. reserve would cause only a temporary dip in world oil prices.
"Prices will fall, but the effect will be temporary," Ali Rodriguez, who is Venezuela's oil minister as well as OPEC's president, said in a televised interview."
Here is some info on the SPR in general you may find interesting although its somewhat dated.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-145es.html
Leigh
(09/22/00; 18:54:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 37257)
Java Man
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
Java Man - what effect can 30 million barrels of oil have? Go over to LeMetropoleCafe and read "Azteca del Oro's" (hope I spelled that right) post of this evening. According to Mr. Azteca, it will have serious effects.
Cavan Man
(9/22/2000; 18:37:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 37256)
USAGOLD & Forum
I'd like to take this opportunity to thank MK and all who labor here with their thoughts each day. Also, happy BD USAGOLD. Thanks also for those who have been kind enough to put up with my occasional blather in the bandwidth over these many months.
Mike-I'll call you from DIA about noon on 9-26.
wolavka-Stay away from fried rice. Coffee much better than tea.
Have a great weekend all.
JavaMan
(9/22/2000; 18:28:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37255)
Peter, so...the US consumes 18.5 million barrels of oil per day. What impact can 30 million barrels from the SPR have?
And sincere congratulations on your msg#: 37164 are in order, Sir. Great writing and equally great reading!
All, I am amazed at the number of wanderers and wonderers (as in wondering what is going on in this world of ours) who have been inclined to introduce themselves, take a seat at the Table, and share what's on their mind this week. Truly, diversity of visitors and their life experience adds to the significance and value of the discussion. Hope you are persuaded to stay for a while.
Felix T. Cat...welcome to the table this evening. I think I speak for all of us when I say we would appreciate any "perspective" you can add to the current events. "Don't give up the "fat-meat"!" I like that...
Happy Birthday, USAGold !!!
RossL
(9/22/2000; 17:15:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 37254)
Triffin
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Citizens are much too stupid to make their own decisions, and elite leaders know all the answers. Gold must be banned so that utopia can be created by printing money.
That is my take on what Triffin really means by his statement. Statists always abhor the idea that citizens would have the freedom of choice to ignore their directives. Sorry for being so cynical!
TownCrier
(9/22/2000; 17:12:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 37253)
To no one in particular... "30 coin minimum??"
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
"We don neeed no steeenking 30 coin minimum!"
Small orders are welcome, too. Click the link, and hit the reload/refresh button to be sure you see the page as it should be.
auspec
(9/22/2000; 17:05:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 37252)
miner49er
Welcome to the land of posters! I must say you have a healthy degree of scepticism for current politicos. You'll fit in nicely around here {us rookies need to stick together}. Please post frequently and encourage other "listeners" to do the same.
AUSPEC
Au-some
(9/22/2000; 17:04:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 37251)
*********Contest#1*********
I, a USAGold lurker, keep returning to this forum because I am an economic illiterate still learning the ABCs of Gold Investing (by M.K.). Gee, sounds like I should be in a twelve step program. I also confess to having an unholy facination with fractioal reserve banking. It is not just a scam, it is the Mother of all Scams. Fortunately I have also learned J.P. Morgan's axiom: "Gold is money, nothing else."
The posters here offer a fantastic array of commentaries on these subjects and more. Plus, they are true Ladies and Gentlemen. The host is gracious (I like the off topic subjects - they give me a chance to post). And the links are excellent - they have allowed me to log enough air time to qualify for my Webhead Wings. Happy Birthday USAGold and thanks.
Felix the Cat
(9/22/2000; 16:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37250)
********Contest#********
Why I came to an return to the USAGOLD FORUM ?
I do see most of the mass media of States is not fair to report the news from Orient. Like as I watched the interview with Mr Jiang of 60mins+(TV program of US) that is different with the version of CCTV. Some contents of Newspaper of there that made people worry about the power of China. But they are not totally correct or just showed a few part of it. I would be honor to be yours "eyes"to tell all of this forum what I see or know of the locale in China and Hong Kong.
As a Chinese saying: Don't give up the "fat-meat"!
This forum is assemble and assembling so many great minds!Especially, our Trail Guide, FOA, ANOTHER , I believe in yours points-of-view, just depands on ---When it will be happened!
Oro and Peter A, I would classify as Realists. But you are great too!
Gandalf the White, is an interesting and significant person!
And so many other great posts, I learned so much in that and thanks!
Actually, I don't like to contest and make argue with other people because I don't want to see people's sad face! But here is more alike as Education to me in every discussions. So, I want to say THANKS to all of here!
Happy Belated Birthday to USAGOLD FORUM!
<:-)
Genoo
(9/22/2000; 16:58:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 37249)
*********contest # 1 ******************
If I, a USAGOLD 'greenhorn poster', were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be the market reaction to third quarter earnings in US equities and specifically those of the technology companies. When INTEL came out with their earnings pre-announcement yesterday and the afterhours market reacted as it did, with a 20% plus drop in value in a matter of minutes, with the follow through action early this morning, it demonstrated to me how vulnerable the current market is to disappointment, and displayed the achilles heel of this ancient bull market.
As it turned out, this time, the dip apparently was bought, and the NASDAQ after dropping 200 plus points early on, managed to escape disaster for the day. Nevertheless,I believe that the earnings of the tech stocks will continue to disappoint and that when those who are still active 'players' have learned not to buy on weakness, the NASDAQ will fall dramatically taking the Dow and the dollar down with it. Money will have nowhere to go except to the safety of gold.
Other potential gold trigger scenarios, which one would have thought might be influential, have at least to date been ineffective in moving the price of gold. Some form or forms of inflation has historically been the event that awakens gold from its slumber. Asset inflation has been with us for a long time , and perhaps because it is largely the rich man's game, has proved not relevant here. Price inflation has recently grabbed the headlines globally, via blockades in various parts of the world, as truckers drew attention to the consequences of the high price of oil which threatens to bankrupt their business..yet not a twitch from gold. Wage inflation is getting a grip on the economy..but so far not sufficiently so to influence gold.
Even among respected analysts, there remains sharp differences in opinion about both the presence and extent of inflation. For example, Fleckenstein, for one, has written ad nauseum, by his own description, about the doctored gov't stats which attempt to conceal the extent of inflation present today ,while Don Coxe refers to the wonderful [low] numbers regarding inflation {broadcast 15 Sept 2000}.
Earnings are the bottom line to most investors. When earnings fall and disappoint, the bottom will drop out of the heart of this market [the NASDAQ ],there will be a simeltaneous drop in the DOW...and a sudden devaluation of the US dollar as compared to gold. And GOLD will be released at last and free to fly.
At this time, I want to take this opportunity to express my appreciation to all who contribute to USA GOLD. This website is a great way to exchange ideas with your fellow man and woman.
Zenidea
(9/22/2000; 16:57:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 37248)
(No Subject)
Happy Birthday USAGOLD !.
G'day Aristotle Yes " Gold; Think of it as you would think of land.". Indeed, they are not making any more of it these days, and yet whilst having the added quality of water its
easier to hide from those who might want to reposses it.
Land with fresh water thereon ? Whatta a Scenic outlook! :)
Have a good weekend peoples , Gone working the land.
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 16:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37247)
Get this
Meeting with the chinease in an hour, discuss the belief that they feel U.S. oilmen are setting up the arabs.(political deal)
will let you know on this one.
RS
(9/22/2000; 16:32:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 37246)
Election 2000....... choices, choices
"When officials abide by the United States Constitution, the vote is our way of selecting the best persons and the best government. But if our officials are breaking Constitutional law, or allowing it to be broken without lifting a finger, your vote is literally their license to steal. You are giving them your permission to take your property and control your life. If you give them that permission, many will take you up on it, because lots of folks enjoy controlling others and amassing property. If you vote for anyone that allows Article 1, Section 10 to be ignored, don't you deserve to be ravaged by inflation?"
from the book "Miracle on Main Street"
by F. Tupper Saussy, (1980)
____________________________________________________
"He who walks with wise men becomes wise." -Proverbs 13:20
Peter Asher
(9/22/2000; 16:10:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 37245)
They did it
Updated 4:19 PM ET September 22, 2000
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Energy Department announced Friday it will release 30 million
barrels of oil from the government's emergency stockpile to try to drive down oil prices.
"We need to make sure that American families are warm this winter," Energy Secretary Bill
Richardson said in announcing the release. "This is the right time to do this."
Richardson said inventories nationwide are 19 percent lower than a year ago. In New
England, he said, the figure was closer to 65 percent lower.
He said the purpose of the drawdown was "not to influence prices" but to address growing
concern about low oil inventories and inadequate stockpiles of heating oil, especially in the
Northeast.
"This is not political," he added, referring to an appeal to President Clinton on Thursday
from Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential candidate, for the release.
"The president wants to help the American people get home heating oil," Richardson said.
Oil was last released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 1991 during the Gulf War.
Administration officials briefed some members of Congress on the release. Northeast
lawmakers have clamored for use of the government oil to rein in oil prices, which in recent
days peaked at nearly $38 a barrel.
Campaigning in Pennsylvania, Gore, the Democratic presidential candidate, reiterated his
call Friday for use of the oil reserve - a government stockpile of 571 million barrels of
crude - to ease tight oil supplies and reduce prices.
He urged a release of 30 million to 35 million barrels "over the next month" to stem the
increase in home heating oil prices. On Thursday, Gore called upon Clinton to release 5
million barrels initially, followed by several other releases of about the same amount.
The proposed oil release brought sharp criticism from Republicans including Gore's rival,
George W. Bush, a former Texas oil man, who said that the reserve was designed to address
critical supply interruptions and not to manipulate the market.
Bush, campaigning Friday in Florida, condemned Clinton's decision to tap the reserve. "The
Strategic Petroleum Reserve is meant for a national emergency, a national war, a major
disruption of supply. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve should not be used a short-term
political fix for somebody whose administration has been asleep at the switch.
The government reserve, created in 1973, has been used only once in response to an oil
emergency - when former President Bush ordered a partial drawdown because of supply
disruptions from the Middle East caused by the Gulf War. The move, and production
increases internationally, maintained market stability and kept oil prices down during the
six-week conflict between U.S.-led forces and Iraq.
It remains unclear what impact a modest injection of government-owned oil into the market
will have on prices. Some analysts have said it probably would have little more than a
psychological effect as a signal from the government that it is willing to intervene
American refineries use about 14 million barrels of oil a day and the country consumes 18.6
million barrels of oil products daily.
The president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Friday that any
drawdown of U.S. reserve would cause only a temporary dip in world oil prices.
"Prices will fall, but the effect will be temporary," Ali Rodriguez, who is Venezuela's oil
minister as well as OPEC's president, said in a televised interview.
He said the world market needs so-called sweet crude to ease shortages of products such as
gasoline, while the U.S. strategic reserve mainly consists of solid crude.
Use of the reserve to try to impact prices has been the subject of intense debate within the
White House for months. Last spring, when oil prices soared and gasoline costs
skyrocketed, the president's advisers were largely opposed to intervention.
But in recent weeks, views began to change, according to a senior White House official.
"What is different is that you've got more people feeling this is ... might be justified," said
the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He said a key factor was a realization
that a series of decisions by OPEC oil producers to increase production was not having the
expected effect of reducing oil prices.
Gore, in focusing on the oil price issue and calling for intervention, also brought new
pressure on the White House to act.
Instead of leveling off at about $22 to $25 a barrel, oil has stayed above $30 a barrel and
soared to nearly $38 a barrel in recent days.
On Friday, November crude was trading down $1.32 at $32.68 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
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CoBra(too)
(9/22/2000; 16:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 37244)
@ USAGOLD -
MK, I do understand that predicted meltdowns, like profit warnings of a leading tech. stock as Intel, in financial
markets are easily countered by the PPT (Cabal, NWO or other such groups), though it will be unpredictable non event pricking the bubble, where any countermeasures are doomed to fail - as they failed in the LTCM incident - and the rescue was fraudulent manipulation.
But, again, I'm failing to keep to the topic, as I've been totally overwhelmed by the flood of great posts as well as new posters (wellcome to all!) to keep track. Wish I'd have more time right now - as it seems something of importance, as most of us have been expecting for so long, is ready to erupt to the surface.
Denmark's euro referendum, next week set off an avalanche of pro euro interventionists - G(gee?)7 (UP) to rescue the $-Reserve status? And Gore asks Clinton to order release of some bbls of strategic oil reserves to ease - what? - the freezing over of the US of A this winter - and how about next, or the next after?
Well, who the hell cares - it just may be the hell freezing over this and potentially a Gore{-y) administration. Though who needs oil to keep warm - the paper $'s may do the trick for a while - except they may turn out to be electronic blips - in that case - PRESS DELETE - after you've got you'r delivery in physical -cb2
PS: Usagold, MK, TC and staff - happy birthday - and to all - thanks for aiding an old gold bug to stick to his guns.
TownCrier
(9/22/2000; 15:45:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37243)
And the Contest #2 GOLD goes to...
http://www.usagold.com/acontest.html
As the target finally stops swinging, the Bull's eye is revealed...
NY Precious Metals Review: Gold trims gains after 10-day high
BridgeNews
London--Sept. 22--COMEX Dec gold futures settled up $1.60 at ***$275.10*** per ounce, trimming gains after initially climbing $5.70 to a ten-day high of $279.20.
And a close inspection of the nearest arrows reveals (results from the link above)...
Black Blade (9/18/2000; 6:04:27MT)>>>>-------$273.80--------->
canamami (9/19/2000; 17:02:23MT) >>>>>......274.40......>>>>>>>
Canuck Gold (9/19/2000; 11:38:29MT) >>>>-------$275.50--------->
VanRip (9/19/2000; 11:54:56MT) >>>>>-------$275.90--------->>
RossL (09/18/00; 16:16:05MT) >>>>-------$276.10--------->
CONGATULATIONS to our finest marksman this week, Sir Canuck Gold, who's steady eye and firm resolve has earned him the French angel 20 franc gold coin for the top honor.
A tip of the hat and a U.S. silver Eagle goes to each of our two runners up, Sir canamami and Sir Van Rip. (Be sure to e-mail Marie (marie@usagold.com) at Centennial to ensure that she has your current mailing address for delivery of your prizes.)
Well done, gentlemen, and thanks to all of you for your participation.
There is still over an hour remaining to submit final entries for Contest #1. See the link above for details on your chance to win a Uruguanyan 5 peso gold coin...over one-quarter ounce of gold just for thinking, typing, and sharing!
TownCrier
(9/22/2000; 15:23:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 37242)
While finalizing the outcome of our Birthday Contest #2, I ran accross these news blurbs
10:15:38 --Summers: Oil price particular concern to importing countries
[Hmmmmmmmmm... methinks the price would be of particular concern the the producing/exporting countries, too. Since they are the ones parting with real wealth, one must ensure that they are content with the settlement they are receiving.]
10:15:30 --Summers says high oil price poses "real economic risk"
[Hmmmmm... Why are the prices "high"? If it is an open market, witnessing the occurance of a successful transaction is evidence that both parties are agreeable to the settlement. The price, by definition, must be "right", not "high".]
10:15:23 --Summers says he expects G7 to discuss oil at Prague meet
[Hmmmmm... Will they also be discussing corn and steel?]
10:15:12 --Summers reiterates use of SPR oil reserve an option
[How "strategic" is that??? Particularly if my comments on pricing is accurate in theory.]
10:15:07 --Summers says oil markets a "concern" to be discussed in Prague
[As implied earlier...read between the lines on this one. The underlying issue is monetary.]
10:15:07 --Summers seeks stable oil prices "in line with historic norms"
[The past three decades have distinctly not been the "norm" with regard to history and settlement for oil. Be careful what you wish for, Mr. Treasury Secretary.]
ORO
(9/22/2000; 15:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 37241)
Aristotle - meanings
Actually, I wanted to address Triffin's thought on the execution side rather than the implication of his thinking relative to the wealth value of gold.
BTW one can think about what gold prices would have been without the historical use as money and the stuff piled in vaults. Wouldn't much of it simply have remained at about the same quantity and price but only fashioned into jewelry, Aztec gods etc. rather than bars and coin? Wouldn't it still have played a similar role as wealth?
Leigh
(9/22/2000; 15:04:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 37240)
Gandalf the White
Gandalf, I was so surprised to see our friend RAINMAN's name (remember him from February 2nd?) among the first posters here at USAGOLD two years ago! What did he post about? I wish I'd been here then to tell him a few things!
AUgustUS
(9/22/2000; 14:57:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 37239)
"******CONTEST #1*******"
If I, a USAGOLD "lurker", were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be an "unambiguous" step in the direction of honesty.
As the light of a small candle is sufficient to overcome the most oppressive darkness, so too shall a step made in the direction of honesty expose that which represents dishonesty and illusion (CPI, PPI, fiat currency, derivatives, gold price, politics, etc, etc).
This step in the direction of honesty may be the action of an individual, company, country or group of countries - it matters not. A small stone is sufficient to set off an avalanche.
The amazing thing with truth is that it is simple and self evident. Only an illusion needs to be continually "sold" and "re-created" to survive. Once the light of day dawns - the shadows quickly disappear.
Everybody (individual, company, country or group of countries) ..... choose your steps carefully. Shine your torches in the direction of truth, .... "follow in the footsteps of giants".
An "unambiguous" step in the direction of honesty to reveal it's light is all it will take.
*******END*******
As a first time poster, included herewith is a happy "belated" birthday wish for USAGOLD and its' team and a sincere thanks to all USAGOLD posters. It is my impression that all your efforts are of tremendous service to humanity as a whole. It is a comfort to find a beacon of "light" in an ocean of "darkness". May your lights shine ever more brightly for everybody's sake.
AUgustUS
Aristotle
(9/22/2000; 14:47:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 37238)
Birthdays and Gandalf the White
Gandalf, I wouldn't think you (of all people) would want to push MK too hard to redesignate the official birthday to something other than September 22nd based on a few days of earlier posts. Why? Because I'm sure you (of all people) will recognize the significant of this particular date for birthdays--especially in the context of a certain famous "Long Expected Party" for one Mr. B.B. and his nephew (and heir to the ring), F.B.
Happy birthday to everyone--here at the Forum and in the Shire too.
Gold. The perfect gift. (One size fits all.) ---Aristotle
ORO
(9/22/2000; 14:43:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 37237)
Lease rates up again
http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html
3 mo. leases at near 1%.
Very sharp rise accompanied the bond breakdown of a couple of days ago.
Could it be that someone is not getting their gold fix?
PS
Happy official birthday USAGOLD !!!
Aristotle
(9/22/2000; 14:39:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 37236)
Brief comment to ORO, and all
Your comment confirmed my hunch that I should have futher clarified the thoughts behind Wednesday's Triffin post, but I am trying to keep my messages to a minimum these days, and therefore didn't want to expand unless pressed by other comments to do so.
You said, rightly enough--
"Gold was not in the vaults. That simple. ... Triffin's implication that people worked hard to dig up gold for the purpose of putting it in a vault was incorrect."
I glossed over this in my allusion to Gold's role in our economic evolution because I felt it was more important to address the defects of his comment not for its applicability in 1961, but rather for its applicability for Gold in today's world. I treated Triffin's Gold being "reburied in bank vaults" as simply metaphorical for Gold being safeguarded as a wealth asset today and tomorrow--either in a personal safe deposit box, worn around an Indian's wrist, in a central bank's vault, or in Gandalf's front pocket.
Triffin implied either that Gold needed to circulate (as currency(?)) to validate our human effort, or else that we could intelligently do without it. I tried to show that he is wrong on either account, both back then, and especially now as we head into the future.
Gold. Think of it like you think of land. ---Aristotle
Simply Me
(9/22/2000; 14:06:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 37235)
******CONTEST******
2) I, a USAGOLD poster, keep returning to this Forum because
I can't answer question Number 1 in this contest!
My American public school education in economics consisted of a three month course in high school. They didn't even give it a full year! And in four years of college I didn't have the sense to take even one economics course (not that anyone advised me that I should). Therefore, I am, like most other Americans, woefully ignorant on the subject, and easily led by the talking heads on the "boob tube". Except for the Y2k scare, I might never have awakened from the stupor.
However, through good fortune and good survival instincts, I found this forum where the finest teachers and willing pupils mix with civility and mutual respect. This forum is a place where I can fill the gap in my education to the extent of my ability to learn. It's an environment where the financial world is shown as it is and as it should be...with gold at it's center.
Happy Birthday USAGOLD Forum!!!
Congratulations to our host, MK, on the success of his vision!...
and many happy returns, to all posters and lurkers on this forum.
simply me
miner49er
(9/22/2000; 14:00:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 37234)
Contest submission - Event to break out of current AU level
If I, a USAGOLD -- LURKER -- , ( Fill in the blank -- "poster", or "lurker"), were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be:
The day the plunge protection team no longer can maintain this phony US equity bubble. The obvious cascading events of foreign capital flight, devaluing dollar, further increasing oil, the probable hyperinflation that ensues, and the strained-to-breaking derivative positions of inconceivable proportions, will at this point cause a flight to liquid, recognized stores of wealth, that are not someone else's liability. This is, of course, gold. This is why we are all here on this site. (Great site Mike!)
The above stated is, again, I think obvious. What is not obvious, and is not entirely predictable is WHEN the PPT finally runs out of ammo, and WHAT the last shot fired will be. (-- Please take the time to read through this, as my conclusion is at the end. --)
As FOA/Another often remark. Things are not laid out in the open in clear cut observable ways. One must extrapolate from what one can observe, and draw conclusions from there.
It would be foolish to discount any and all possibilities: economic, political, or military, in attempting to assess this. It must be understood the proportions of disaster that can occur from one misstep. Unless one follows things, no, studies things with great effort, I don't believe one can grasp fully how desperately bad this can/will be.
Therefore, desperate people take desperate measures. Absolutely desperate people take absolutely desperate measures.
The PPT/US govt. will try all manner of weapons, most old and tired, and inadequate for this war. Among these:
-- They will try lowering interest rates again and again (although at some point, this makes the gold and yen carry trades into US instruments less attractive).
-- They will expand the money supply endlessly, and permit de facto money creation via the money markets even more explosively than to date, in order to prop the markets, and "keep the economy going." [Doug Noland at PrudentBear.com has many excellent articles on this. See Credit Bubble Bulletin archives.]
-- They will try to keep oil high (but not too high) and hope to eliminate the Euro competition by destabilizing their economies (but not too much) with expensive oil. The thinking here is that if the US can keep the US$ strong (but not too strong), and the Euro weak (but not too weak), we will be able to sustain higher oil prices (though with pain and suffering -- but not too much), while Europe will not, because the pain and suffering will be worse (but not much worse). Such finesse. (Possibly nonsense, but remember this is desperation time...)
This is a race against time, however, because once the Euro takes on oil contracts itself in economic proportions, this card is no longer playable
-- They will sing the same old worn out economic numbers songs even though they know that no one believes them. They just have to do it. When a liar stops lying, it's either because he got religion, or he's just plain old given up.
-- They will continue to work through the ESF to drive their other chief competition, gold, through the floor. (This extrapolated as follows: 1) the nature of the ESF, its resources, and scope, 2) the unaccountable status of its 2 controlling authorities, and the questionable nature of at least one of these individuals, 3) a fair bit of circumstantial evidence, and 4) the nature of human nature in absolutely desperate circumstances.)
All this will ultimately not stave off an increasingly raging tide of economic events.
Some might say that a China, or Iraq or even a Colombian drug lord might suddenly decide to demand physical gold for its store of dollars (or in Iraq's case, oil). Perhaps, but interested parties close to each of these, who would be hurt by this, can probably offer alternatives.
China is probably the most cool headed here. They would probably be happy to leave the U.S. as hostage-king under this Damoclean gold sword, and procure as many political advantages in the mean time. (E.g., leave Taiwan alone, or we buy.)
Any private interest, like the drug lord mentioned above, will have his price -- and if this private party is not powerful, he will be sat down once at a nice dinner, and made to understand why it is not in his best interests to do this. After that this wealthy, but weak potential big buyer will find things going remarkably unwell for his portfolio -- or worse...
(When I speak like this, I don't want to confer the impression that I believe in conspiracies the likes of what I mentioned in a post elsewhere. I.e., shadow central bankers meeting in high tech bunkers under the Alps with a Rothschild or two. I simply mean that powerful interests, when their interests run concurrent, understand that a coordination of effort -- often unspoken, but simply understood ,because they all know very well how the game is played -- produces a synergy of results. Desperate people + Desperate circumstances = Desperate actions.)
Now for Iraq. And this may apply for any Middle Eastern interest who is not, let's say, a very nice person.
Following FOAs thoughts the other day... I don't care if my neighbor is in debt up to his ears, except if my economic functioning is tied to his financial circumstances. We have marginalized Iraq, and they really don't need us. They have limped along without US$ (which if I understand correctly, don't go directly to Iraq anyway, but to the U.N. for distribution for "food and medicine"). If this is true, then Albright's slight the other day about Iraq importing 12,000 cases of Scotch each year, and wondering if this counts as food or medicine, is clumsily hypocritical since it is up to her and the U.N. to ensure proper distribution of these revenues.
Anyway, Iraq limps along without really needing our dollars. They don't care what we do, or who's in office. What do you do if you are Saddam Hussein, and you want to win the jackpot?
-- He could punish us with chem/bio weapons. True. But really messy, and could lead to nuclear/bio/chem retaliation, and an end of all things.
-- He could engage in an economic nuclear strike, and sell oil only for physical spot gold. True. And he might, but this is also messy, and likewise could lead to military retaliation.
-- He could demand one more thing. And I believe this government of ours, certainly this administration, is capable of accepting the offer.
"Give ISRAEL into our hands, and you can have all the oil you want." Whether Iraq, or another Middle Eastern state (this is not a slight at the people or any government there in particular, but not everyone in this planet is filled with love and copious goodwill). Also, I understand that there is more here than simple oil supply, but I'm speaking here superficially to avoid another lengthy digression...
We already see this (and I assert this was a clear quid pro quo from Clinton's procuring Arab increases in oil production last week) with the U.S. suddenly talking about the prudence in power sharing in Jerusalem. Ultimately, all this will end in the U.S. turning a blind eye/deaf ear while allowing coordinated military action against Israel.
Shades of Armageddon?
If Gore is elected, this option will be considered, Lieberman's Judaism will not matter. And it will not be obvious that this is what the US is doing. If Bush is elected it remains to be seen if he considers the option as well. If not, then there is nothing else to offer that doesn't consist of more paper and promises. Whatever external event[s] ultimately occur[s] to cause the break out of gold, the underlying reason will be that the U.S. has no further goodies to hand out (long having run out of ammo), and that Israel was the last they had to offer.
Again, great site! Another and FOA have both contributed volumes and volumes of illumination and insight to me. I am forever grateful for the education I've received under them.
As I am not anyone of great wisdom, intellect, or experience, I submit this certainly with a big preface of IMHO. Thank you for reading this rather voluminous first post.
beesting
(9/22/2000; 13:49:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 37233)
Addition to post # 37229.
Now we can fully understand the real reason why the world has been put on a paper money system. Paper "Money" can and is successfully manipulated in value constantly. Where as a monetary system based on physical Gold would truly reflect supply and demand type economics.
A MUCH MORE HONEST MONETARY SYSTEM!!!
FWIW.....beesting.
RossL
(9/22/2000; 13:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37232)
Gandalf the White -GC0Z
Unfortunately, I jinxed myself and checked the GC0Z at 12:30 eastern, so I couldn't possibly have won. The price at 12:30 EDT was 276.10, which was my guess exactly to the penny!
SHIFTY
(9/22/2000; 13:42:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 37231)
aaahhh
When I hit the send button on my letter to the CFTC it felt wonderful. I highly recommend this activity to any of you that feel disgusted with what is going on.
Shifty
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 13:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37230)
okay boys
spr coming out. Bad news!!!!!!!!!!!!
beesting
(9/22/2000; 13:26:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37229)
ORO is Right!
http://quote.yahoo.com/m3?u
The second part of ORO's # 37224 covers "EURO Intervention" today by the U.S. FED, BOJ and ECB.It's Right On!
I submit today's intervention was not what it appeared to be in the press release. It was a very small "Devaluation" of the U.S. Dollar, against all the currencies! See above URL!
WHY?
Well my guess it was to try to show the Group of 7 (G-7) meeting tomorrow in Prague that "We(U.S. FED/BOJ)have things under control." Because, if they(FED) hadn't taken this action today, the G-7 would have devalued the U.S.Dollar by a much larger percentage at the end of their meeting.
We watch together.....beesting.
SHIFTY
(9/22/2000; 13:17:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37228)
CFTC Letter
My letter to CFTC
Dear CFTC
I cant help but ask why it seems nothing is being done about the Gold market?
I am aware of the 8/24 Ethan B. Stroud - Letter to William J Rainer of the CFTC written as a formal complaint concerning the illegal price manipulation of gold and gold derivatives by numerous bullion banks and brokerage houses. In his letter he states " This unlawful price fixing has been continuous since l996. It is respectively requested that an investigation be made by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission into this unlawful and illegal activity."
I could not agree more with him.
The action today in the gold market could not make it more obvious that something is terribly wrong in this commodity market.
I also know of GATA and what they are doing.
I would like to know is the CFTC looking into this matter ?
What action can I expect the CFTC to take?
When might I expect to see that action by the CFTC?
I look forward to hearing from you on this issue.
Sincerely
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 13:13:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 37227)
positive action
range and close , positive:
Arrogance of pop (people in power U.S.) will be punishment to many.
Eastern Europe meets east Asia thru Prague.
Sun sinks in west.
Gandalf the White
(9/22/2000; 13:04:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37226)
GC0Z == UNOFFICIAL settle = $275.10
Which guess was closest ?
<;-)
Twice Discipled
(9/22/2000; 12:29:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 37225)
"I can't afford to sell!"
Just had a co-worker come over and tell me the from his original investment of over $60,000 he is down over $20,000 today with most of his stocks down 75-85%. A few "bellweathers" like Oracle & Motorola are holding the rest of his portfolio together. I said why don't you just sell and when things look like they have bottomed out, buy back. Oh, I can't afford to do take a loss, I'll just have to ride it out.
I told him that I had enough last year and sold most everything and bought Au & Ag. I mentioned I had even added 10 oz Au & 100 az Ag this week. He just sort of looked at me funny.
In all of my discussions about Au & Ag, I have only met one or two people who didn't think I was off my rocker, but even they weren't willing to buck the trend and join in. I carry a 4 Ducat piece which allows me to talk a lot about why gold is important, but people just smile (I know they're thinking -- boy is he out in left field).
I sadly feel that the average Joe will not think about joining the gold bandwagon until it is too late and priced way out of their affordability.
ORO
(9/22/2000; 12:28:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 37224)
Triffin's gold - Wondering what would happen if vaults were emptied
An examination of a stupid idea and an incorrect observation
Aristotle, the answer to Triffin lay in the preceding history of free banking. Holding gold in the vault was only part of the story. The other part was that free banking allowed the gradual accumulation of leverage in banking at about 1:1 in the worst of bad times, and up to 4:1 at best. Thus only 30% of the gold circulating in demand notes was sitting in any vault. Furthermore, term debt paper was standing at roughly equal volumes to bank credit, thus allowing monetary-like assets - money substitutes of the second order - to double the leverage to a 15% reserve.
Thus Triffin's second dilemma didn't actually exist in the free banking environment. Only 15% of the broad money supply was circulating as gold. At such a leverage, gold was hardly trading above its value as the stuff of jewelry and as a producer good.
Gold was not in the vaults. That simple.
Second, gold's inventory at any time in history took minimal effort to use because it had allready existed. Thus Triffin's implication that people worked hard to dig up gold for the purpose of putting it in a vault was incorrect. Most of the gold was already there and no one needed to go dig any up for monetary purposes. The gold was dug up for use in jewelry and non-monetary coins and medals (i.e. collector's items). The only argument Triffin could have forwarded was to question whether gold sitting in a vault should not be used to supply fabrication demand.
Let's peruse this idea as a practical matter:
Say all governments on earth decrees that all gold be dumped from the vaults into the markets over some period. And that no gold debts need be paid in specie, but in some paper chits or book entries of a money "equivalent". We can refrain from criticizing the dismal historical performance of such money chits, and focus on the gold markets.
The gold markets would quickly discount the known quantity coming to market and then some. The POG would fall dramatically relative to other goods and services. All current manufacturing/production would cease. Then gold would be used to plate wall socket internals and plugs, gilt frames and furniture would suddenly abound, and Solingen will find many competitors vying for its market in gold plated tableware. In the jewelry trade, 22 kt and 24 kt heavy gold chains and jewelry would come to dominate the markets. Every lady will covet the discount priced heavy gold jewelry since this would probably be the first time she had been able to afford it, and no husband would pass muster if he had chosen plated and "tone" jewelry instead - he would simply be considered cheap. In short, the jewelry and industrial uses of the metal would rise to consume the whole volume of vault gold displaced. In 1913, that would simply have been a double in the volume of gold jewelry "outstanding". Today, it would require only a 50% rise in the volume of gold jewelry as the gold in the vaults peaked at 60% in the mid 1930s in the West, and during WWII in the East, mostly because of government confiscation (the leading cause for gold moving into vaults in the first place).
In short, there would simply be a doubling of the gold jewelry held in homes and much gold would end up on connectors on circuit boards, where gold plating makes soldering unnecessary.
Thus most gold would sit in our cars and home electronics and in our jewelry chests. Is there any difference between that and having it in the vaults? Would the rich ladies who more than doubled their gold jewelry not put it back in vaults for safe keeping? Finally, once the gold had been absorbed, the gold price would not only shoot back to where it was when it was sitting in the vault, but would have to rise above the previous price (in terms of the rest of the economy's goods and services) because the huge concentrated inventory in the vaults was no longer overhanging the markets. The only supply of gold from mines (that would have to be rebuilt nearly from scratch – erasing 25-30 years of mining capital) and from scrap electronics/outmoded jewelry would be available to the market. Dishoarding of jewelry would probably follow the 5% rule where people "in the aggregate" tend to cash in/spend 5% of the profit in a rising asset.
Say that gold was in demand and mine supply were at 2500 tonnes/yr before the vaults were emptied, and that emptying the vaults provided 50,000 tonnes over 5 years. Some 3 years before the fact, discussion of the matter is at a high pitch. 2 years before, fashionable economists see it as the obvious thing to do and Wall Street is happy to oblige in having its gold liabilities erased. Long before the vaults are emptied, gold prices fall sharply and supply from the vaults starts moving out. (Assuming for the sake of argument that the price doesn't RISE because of the gold account holders trying to replace their bullion and gold debt assets. Let's say that the gold market is leveraged at the historical 4:1 to 7:1 ratios, with 1/4-1/3 actually wanting gold slab jewelry – that would be about 100% to 200% of vault gold. If done today, the result would be much more extreme because the leverage would have been much higher.) Say that prices do fall as if none of the bullion and paper gold holders would want to replace their holdings with an equivalent gold.
As a result, jewelry demand doubles from 2000 tonnes to nearly 4000 tonnes as gold prices drop by 30-40% before the event. If the fall is greater, say at 60%-70% (jewelry demand would then rise to the 8000-10000 tonne area), then the electronic applications take over. Soldering machines stop selling and pop in designs for connectors start dominating the circuit board and connector markets. Equipment for the plating of circuit board holes (two more baths one more mask), chip legs, capacitor legs and transistor legs is purchased en-masse, as is the equipment for assembly of pop-ins. Gold backed CDs and DVDs come to market with a minor premium (gold is a better vapor deposition coating material because of its low melting point and easy availability in high purity, it forms more uniform coatings, and because it is pretty). This set of applications absorbs 5000 or 10000 tonnes per year (I don't really know how it will end up).
Finally, the gold is out there and the old soldering and related businesses are shut down with all of the investment in them wasted, the new pop-in and plating equipment would also be a waste since the supply situation is only temporary, but given inflation rates as high as they are, the running profit would pale in comparison to the capital outlay. Gold jewelry falls in resale value, but new gold jewelry does not drop as sharply in price because of the need to process all this gold jewelry demand – to produce the stuff – as one would expect a doubling and perhaps a quadrupling in consumption. Thus over this period, we see an accumulation of 20000-30000 tonnes of jewelry, and find 20000-30000 tonnes in electronics. The vaults are now nearly empty, and no substantial supply is coming to market from the vaults nor from the mines.
Recovery from electronics, which was uneconomical during the gold glut, becomes economical after prices start rising before the vault doors close for the last time. In the meantime, a large portion of 4-7 years worth of outmoded electronics were landfilled instead of having gold stripped. So that portion of the gold is back in the ground awaiting re-mining. Say 10000-15000 tonnes were re-buried this way.
The gold mining industry, now decimated with little active mining, flooded and collapsed shafts and trashed mining equipment, has lost the bulk of its capital investment, the bulk of its specialized capital goods suppliers are out of business and reduced the capacity of its un-specialized suppliers. All gold mining equipment would now be contracted for future delivery at the complete cost of design, capital investment and production, say at 50%-100% higher price than before the vault emptying idea came about, er- "gained currency".
Gold mine production for delivery would only be contracted at prices that cover "redefining" resources, mine clearance and reconstruction and capital investment. First gold production would arrive 2 years after at the earliest. The bulk of preexisting gold supply capacity would be reestablished at 5-7 years after. After what? After contracted delivery prices rise to the level that allows coverage of the costs above, and stay there for a while.
In the meantime, the cost of gold becomes prohibitive for the electronics industry a few years before the vaults close, but retooling for soldering will be 50%-100% more costly than the same equipment was before because the old investment was lost – wasted.
The price of gold before the vault idea was bandied about was say 100 "real" chits/oz, and production was 2500 tonnes, 50000 tonnes in vaults, 75000 tonnes in jewelry, 20000 tonnes in industrial/consumer products. The price at the low of the market was say 30 chits, consumption was such that 25000 tonnes went to jewelry, 25000 tonnes to industrial use, and 10000 tonnes were produced from the mines (who upgraded their ores). Thus 100000 tonnes of jewelry at the end of the process, 45000 in electronic products, 10000 tonnes of which were put in land fill.
On the way down, mines had hedged forwards, and had high graded their production. Thus at 100 chits/oz the 20%-25% of high grade material mine-able at 25 chits per ounce were mixed in with the 75%-80% of the original gold deposits that would have cost 500 chits/oz to be produced on their own. As price dropped due to gold dumping from the vault, the mines would produce only from high grade ore. This would bring to depletion of the high grade ore in about 1/4 to 1/3 of the designed mine life. When the better ore is depleted, the mine would close – within 2-4 years. It would only open when prices are well above the production costs for the remaining ore, say about 4-7 times higher than before the vault supply lowered gold prices (I had gone through the calculations twice last year, it should be in the archive). Furthermore, the volume produced at those prices would still be only 1/2 that produced before.
The dishoarding by jewelry holders would be the major source till the prices are sufficient to get mines going again. Thus the price should be sufficient to bring out enough gold from jewelry holders to satisfy demand at that same price. Using the 5% rule, the rate for dishoarding would be 2500 tonnes the year when "real" prices had doubled from say 30 chits to 60 chits, and the next 2500 tonnes would come out in the next double to 120 chits and to get a cumulative 10000 tonnes out, prices would need to triple or quadruple to 100 chits and up to 200 chits. However, at the market bottom and just after, consumption was 10000-15000 tonnes, and it would take 2 years to reduce industrial demand back to where it was before. So that demand for the metal would remain higher than it was at 100 chits the ounce before the vault emptying. Thus gold demand at 100 chits would still be substantially above 2500 tonnes even without considering momentum buyers. At say 5000-7000 tonnes the year after the bottom in gold and at about the original price, one would see the market in balance (at 100 chits). The next year, 4-5000 oz would be needed at a price of some 200 chits, and demand would return to pre-vault-raid the third year, with the first new mine supply. The third year would demand 2000-3000 tonnes at just under 400 chits with industrial users out of the market and have mine supply at 200-500 tonnes. Then at 700 chits, 2000 tonnes would be coming out for the fourth year, including 500 tonnes of mine supply that are possible. At 1500 tonnes supplied and 1000 chits including 1200 tonnes of new steady production some 5-10 years later, we would find stability.
Speculation, however, would soon take over as the first speculators would see what is coming and raise demand for speculative inventory to multiples of what the market can afford them. Prices would start up with a few sharp rallies as demand remains but supply is no longer forthcoming and various buyers get priced out of the market but have to fill current orders while competing with speculators. The rallies would be interspersed with price crawls and would then skyrocket by the end of the first year into a steep advance line. Prices would shoot well above 1000 chits well before the 5th year, perhaps within less than 2 years. The final stabilization would be above the "natural" 1000 chit price and world demand would remain higher than it would have otherwise been for years afterwards.
The long and short of it is that releasing gold from the vaults would result in terrific disruption and cause the reconstitution of double to triple the ore processing capacity in order to process only 2/3 as much gold as before. Thus two to three decades worth of capital expenditure in the gold mining industry would be needed. The supplying industries would go through a cycle of capital investment at double the original capacity and the consuming industries would go into two cycles of capital spending – once to make use of the low gold price, once more to return to the old replacement technology. The capital costs would be equivalent to at least 5 decades of gold mine investment, would necessitate much higher labor use to produce the lesser amounts of gold, gold products and gold product replacements.
1/4 of the vault gold would be in land fills, another quarter in products into which it should never entered, and half in the jewelry safes (vaults) and chests of people around the globe. It would also have crippled an industry for a decade, and made at least 3 times as many people as were mining gold before go through two cycles of being unemployed and learning new jobs. Since that takes between 1 and 2 years, then it should be thought of as having 4 to 6 years worth of the people (and potentially much more) in the gold mining industry sitting to twiddle their thumbs.
The results would have been somewhat less disastrous in a real life situation. Gold would have, in reality, just changed forms to those allowed by law and still kept in vaults. But mining would have undergone similar, though reduced damage, and price behavior would have been just as wild, though lesser in its extremes.
The structure of gold ore distributions assure us that each time there is a glut it is followed by a heavy deficit – which is part of the key to gold's successful history as money. Their character complements human nature.
The above numbers are for illustration only. The gold demand functions are not quite there, and it would be necessary to extrapolate for this hypothetical situation. Also, momentum buying is about 3-5 times stronger than dishoarding/sales initially and during the bulk of the runup in price. Only towards the end of the process are the momentum buyers running out of resources while dishoarding continues apace. The over-extended momentum buyer is normally the one to cry uncle first, which is often followed by a steep drop in price that catches the less extended buyers off-guard and punishes them as well.
A general observation comes to mind, that at the end of a trend in a financial item the people in it are hit first by their hedges exploding in their faces and then with the fall in the financial item itself. Thus LTCM and many others hedged interest rates with T-bond shorts. Though they were buying spread products at spreads that were well above normal, the end result was that the T bonds rocketed, and both them and anyone who followed the classic methods was clobbered. Value stocks play a role in hedging through diversification. Towards the end of a bull equity market these stocks bring prolonged losses just before the main stock groups in fashion get hurt. Also, the reasonable investor may hedge by shorting small amounts of over-extended stocks selling at unreal premiums to their underlying businesses. This attracted many hedgers to short the internet boom. This had the effect of raising prices of these same stocks through short squeezes – which were responsible for the bulk of the internet stock's price gains in their heyday. Gold, of course, is also used as a hedge and has brought losses to the hedgers seeking Markovitz type diversification (Markovitz is the developer of modern portfolio theory, by which historical statistical data are used to develop a risk/return balanced portfolio – The universal acceptance of this theory means that investment class allocations are disregarding current reality and its likely impact on the future in favor of historical information from a world gone by).
Finally, the Fed paper suggesting gold dumping by the CBs comes to mind as the culmination of the Triffin concept when brought to real life application. The model used was flawed in the extreme in that it completely ignored the structure of the gold production process and the resulting effects. Namely that the companies involved would sell their gold forward and "high grade" so as to increase gold mining volumes in an attempt to protect nominal revenue and continue operations, just as the CB direct or sponsored sales come around, thus producing a more extreme downturn in prices and an unsustainable increase of production. The increased production raises the future costs of mining the same ore body as the remaining ore reserves decline in quality due to cherry picking of the best ores.
The rise in global paper gold issues and their rising maturities have been acting as supplies of fiduciary substitutes for gold, i.e. as gold credit expansion. As a result, gold supply was diluted by paper substitutes, thus lowering dollar prices of gold. This had the effect of mimicking exactly that vault supply discussed above and in the Fed paper. Gold miners are acting as the above analysis provides. However, the mechanism of gold sales being one of paper driven gold price declines would differ from the initial discussion of Triffin's concept in that the paper markets are not closed before the vault emptying event (nor its simulation). Thus demand for physical gold by investors remains diverted into paper.
------------------------------
Euro intervention – was rather a dollar intervention.
The only Euro intervention was the Iraqi suggestion some days back that they sell oil in Euro.
If they do so, their 2.3 million barrels per day would require a 33 billion Euro reserve to be built – or a decline of 28 billion dollars in dollar reserves needed to purchase the Iraqi oil.
Since reserves are held as treasuries, the treasury markets must have responded to this with a sell off of some equivalent proportion.
Also, the sale of treasuries would be a preliminary to dumping of dollars for intervention.
The Intel news, like similar items from P&G and other multinationals, must have brought pressure to bear on the administration to weaken its "strong dollar policy" (the success of this policy is a temporary phenomenon). Oil producers, the Clinton Administration and all oil importers have cooperated in some manner over the last week to stop the dollar from rising (rather than stopping the Euro from falling) further. As discussed before, the strong dollar is causing a structural balance of payments problem to form as net income flows have reversed from being near 0 over most of the last 5 years, to being decidedly negative. The new prospect of possible Democratic control of the White House in the next term has brought this issue to the forefront – probably by Summers, who is a former disaster architect for the World Bank – the problem of a structural dollar supply that would take a total reversal of "strong dollar policy" to undo. The dollar income problem is such that now $60 billion annually are going to be supplied into the international arena by payments on the US’ net dollar debt. This figure would GROW AS INTEREST RATES RISE, thus making monetary policy backfire when "inflation" control is attempted – since higher rates mean higher dollar supply abroad and therefore a rise in import prices – now over 50% of goods sales in the US. Furthermore, the flows are increasing as more US source debt builds up, currently at a rate of $25-30 billion of fresh structural current accounts deficits this year. This means that the US will be paying out $100 billion annually in net interest by next year – without considering possible fund flows out of the US by foreign investors. Needless to say, increasing this figure as rapidly as it is rising now ($10 bil. in 98, 30 in 99, 60+ in 00) would mean that dollars would flood the markets in a kind of stream not seen since the dollar reserve "clearance sale" of the late 70s – but not as payment for goods – i.e. in return for something, but in return for nothing at all; just to pay interest.
Thus acceleration of the current trends would result in a current dollar shortage killing the emerging economies (as the stronger economies accumulate dollars to pay for future oil while the emerging economies must cause their reserves to decline by buying oil now). That would cause defaults in the global banking system at a time when the IMF is out of funds and faces an uphill battle to bring in more funding – this bringing the possibility of a future bailout of the bank creditors into doubt, and the ability of emerging nations to absorb dollar exports in order to repay dollar debt (now Euro debt too). The emerging economies’ need to repay dollar debt is the main economic support for the dollar's international value. The threat to that debt's viability (remember that a bankrupt debtor does not pay debt any longer, having given up on his ability to do so), would raise the potential imbalance in structural dollar flows. The current need is for the debtor nations to have relief on the oil expenditure while having a strong market for their exports. Thus the oil talkdown, the dollar (not Euro) intervention.
Emerging market debt demands $130 billion dollars annually. The US has been willing to supply any number of dollars in return for goods. Now, however, the US has a structural debt driven supply of dollars that given current trends would have reversed the situation completely by the end of next year with a few emerging market debt defaults reducing their debt demand by some $10-20 billion per year to some $115 billion, while US creditors have a $100-110 billion supply, thus the US would not see any benefit from the debt supply because it would be paid out without any imports coming in.
SHIFTY
(9/22/2000; 12:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 37223)
CFTC web site
http://www.cftc.gov/
Click on " Public Information & Complaints "
Listed below is information designed to help you find answers to many of your questions. If you have a question or an issue you have not been able to resolve with the information provided here or elsewhere on our web site, please e-mail Webmaster@CFTC.gov or call the CFTC at (202)418-5000. We will be happy to hear from you and to assist you in finding the information you seek.
============================================================
$hifty
TownCrier
(9/22/2000; 12:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 37222)
Hear ye! Hear ye! A birthday contest! The deadline for entry is this afternoon.
http://www.usagold.com/acontest.html
Click the link to see the contest rules, and let the games continue!
To celebrate September 22nd, marking the second anniversary of the birth of the Forum here at USAGOLD, we have organized several games of skill and luck for your participation...with prizes of GOLD to be awarded to the several winners.
The final contest deadline (for Contest #1) approaches today at 17:00 Forum Time Zone, with the top prize being the coveted Uruguayan Five Peso gold coin, and tenth ounce gold bullion coins for the two runners up. Step right up and let your voices be heard!
TownCrier
(9/22/2000; 11:58:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 37221)
Daily Market Report
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Or get there anytime by clicking on the link at the top of the page that looks like this...
(Daily Market Report)
USAGOLD
(9/22/2000; 11:45:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 37220)
Canamami. . . .Your Question and Some Random Unsolicited Thoughts on Trading Overseas
Wanted to say that Canada and Australia are our next objectives. We're going to approach this one at a time with Europe and 300 million like minded, potential goldmeisters our first objective. It is very difficult to do business country to country despite all the talk about free trade, etc. Beyond the trade complications, (which are numerous and multi-level) you have the logistics problems of establishing usable communication and delivery systems for your clientele (Problems we have largely solved). The internet of course is invaluable but that's just the beginning. Would you be surprised to find out that we have contacted at least three European governmental agencies to date and have yet to receive a response on basic trade questions? We could very well rack up mult-millions in sales before they even get around to answering our basic questions (The answers to which we found in other places). The U.S. government departments assigned to helping Americans solve these sort of problems aren't much help either. Quite often they don't even know what the businessman is talking about and end up recommending a "consultant" in the private sector to have these nettlesome questions answered. I would say that government bureacracies on either side of the Atlantic are woefully ill-equipped to help their citizens benefit from the changes now sweeping the globe.
Golden Truth
(9/22/2000; 11:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37219)
(No Subject)
Sell The PAPER Gold Shares
It's time to sell all PAPER Gold shares and buy more, or only, "Physical Gold". They can't cheat you then, when will people ever learn????????
Kick them where it really hurts and buy up their GOLD with inflated Dollars!
G.T
Blue Dog
(9/22/2000; 11:34:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 37218)
*******CONTEST #1********
First of all, I don't believe the real POG break out
will be when the dollar sinks. The POG in Euros will
remain in the same range of 310-320.
POG will break out when the major speculators turn bull.
Of course one or two will get cut out, such is life; and it
will be this fear of being snake bit that will cause the stampede.
For example, we had a group of ten macho delinquents in the
swamps of Florida (serving their time). They didn't like hiking on the twisting sandy trail, so they took a short cut through a knee deep hard bottom lake. We told them to get back on the trail, but they just laughed at us for our stupidity of being on the trail.
We yelled at them to watch out for the snakes and Alligators
They played it cool for a minute or so until the first one stepped toward the bank. That's all it took as they made a real mess of things getting back to the trail.
Of course the publicly owned companies will be those that get Drown or bit. The big winners will be those that have bought out the mining companies. Then we will see POG at around double the cost of production. Of course I'm not trying to get rich in gold, I'm just trying keep what God gave me.
If there is the big boom for precious metals it may come as
new technologies are developed to replace fossil fuels. Of course, before then, I'm planning on giving the coins to the kids. There'll be plenty where I'm going.
I've really appreciate all you whom post on USAGOLD. You guys are the best. It is so good to read common sense, truth, and relevant information.
May Him that owns all the gold and silver bless you.
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 11:23:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37217)
FWIW
Purchased some paper for Taiwan in futures.
Canuck Gold
(9/22/2000; 11:06:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37216)
******CONTEST #1*******
If I, an occasional USAGOLD poster, were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be the generally recognised perception that the government has been lying about the impact that increased energy prices have been having on inflation. So far, everyone seems to be playing along with the chirade, particularly the media, reporting the government's CPI, PPI etc. numbers as facts rather than the fiction that a casual examination would prove them to be. If the cost of diesel fuel, used to transport a significant proportion of the goods we purchase, has doubled over the last 12 months, then eventually these increased cost will be passed along to the consumers. Along with the increased costs of heating fuel and gasoline, the average consumer will have less disposal income in the months ahead, and this will impact their ability to maintain the boom. Already, major companies are reporting earnings lower than projected. When these become a flood rather than the current trickle, the markets will take a hammering and the herd will stampede into good with a vengence.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank MK for this superior forum which celebrates its second birthday today. I have gained a greater understanding of economics and the politics suurounding the world's financial markets and in particular the impact those events have on the price of gold. A greater forum for discussions on gold (and other interesting topics) does not exist.
CG
Humble Pie
(9/22/2000; 11:03:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 37215)
**********************CONTEST # 1***************************
I a USA Gold lurker/poster keep returning to this forum because ,being of humble orgin I must always be on guard against the paper hangers that abound. My goal is to keep on the path and follow in the footsteps of Giants.Sucess means doing the best we can with what we have.Sucess is in the doing not the getting ,in the trying not the triumph.The knowledge acquired here has got me out of paper gold into physical.My slice of the pie though small now, will some day be the whole pie and then some .
Gandalf the White
(9/22/2000; 11:01:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 37214)
WOWSERS -- WHAT a day !!
Looks today as if almost everyone was on the "Top of the HILL" at some time in the Price of Gold (POG) Contest #2!! We shall see whom ends there at the close of the NY paper market. <;-)>>
AND that was a fine post for Contest #1, Peter the Great !!
AND LOOK, Felix the Cat has finally returned from his travels !! -- How are things on the other side of the world, F.C. ? You do like Birthday Parties, YES ?
--
BTW, did anyone notice that the Quotecom stock board has the volume on INTC counting BACKWARDS !! -- must be subtracting the sales from the total float ? HAHAHAHA
<;-)
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 10:43:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37213)
okay paper pushers
Here are the choices for todays dec comex close.
275 key reversal
277.40 magic #
282+ This close could rock limit after g-7.
Phoenix
(9/22/2000; 10:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 37212)
Court Order to Investigate 1997-1998 Oil Dumping
http://www.savedomesticoil.com
BACKGROUND: A few years ago, US steelmakers accused the Japanese companies of dumping steel. Commerce heard the case, agreed and imposed import fees on Japanese steel. The same lawyers who fought for the steelmakers are fighting for the US producers.
FROM 09/20/2000 OIL & GAS DAILY NEWSLETTER:
TRADE COURT RULES COMMERCE MUST PROBE WHETHER NATIONS DUMPED OIL ON US MARKET
Against the odds, a group of US Independents called Save Domestic Oil (SDO) has won a decision from the US Court of International Trade forcing the Commerce Department to investigate charges it dismissed in August 1999.
Judge Thomas J. Aquilino ruled Tuesday that the department has 60 days to investigate whether there is any merit to SDO's claims that Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Iraq dumped crude onto the market a couple of years ago, depressing oil prices and forcing many small US producers out of business.
Commerce based its 1999 dismissal on a finding that opposition from other US producers exceeded support for the SDO petition. Major oil companies had frowned at the legal confrontation and the split in the industry seemed to bolster the Commerce Department's stand.
However, Aquilino ruled that Commerce cannot consider opposition from major oil companies or the four oil-producing nations. That ruling is consistent with SDO's argument that production from US Majors and many large independents should not have been counted against the petition because those companies have business dealings with the four producing countries.
The petition was seeking IMPORT FEES on crude from the four nations, a remote possibility last year and even harder to imagine in today's environment. The fees, if imposed, could amount to billions of dollars.
The Commerce dismissal based on the supposed lack of support from other producers, precluded SDO's petition from being heard on its merits, the burden is on SDO to prove that the four nations deliberately sold oil at below market prices in order to drive small US producers out of business.
SDO conceded that the Clinton administration pressured Commerce into dismissing the petition. The group had predicted it would get the dismissal overturned because the seven federal judges on the US Court of International Trade are appointed for life, and therefore unlikely to bend to administration policies.
MY ANALYSIS: If the case is heard and the precedent set, then OPEC and other countries will think twice about running the price of oil down to obscene levels to capture market share. It will create a price floor for oil in the low to mid twenties.
nummus aureus
(9/22/2000; 10:14:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37211)
Canuck: Paper Games
I strongly concur with your synopsis of the paper games. A pleasant pastime for the boys collecting the vigourish on the transactions. I was about to buy my "Dear Sweet Loving" some FN as a graduation gift for her MBA. She laughed at the notion, with the remark "no one buys the unleveraged [debt free]companies, they don't move". I remain paper free to this day. Dear Sweet Loving counter offered a request for a respectable trinket from DeBeers.
WW Oracle
(9/22/2000; 10:00:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 37210)
It's WAR!!!
The U.S. Treasury vs. the Fed and the other big central banks! Who's gonna win?
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 9:47:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 37209)
Richardson
National interest, okay we'll see after Prague .
Golden Hook
(9/22/2000; 9:47:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 37208)
(No Subject)
CB's
CB's intervention will not help the EURO.Cb's don't have enough leverage in currences to raise the EURO. The EURO will break all other currences as it proceeds south.
G.
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 9:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 37207)
dec coming back down
watch for buying to come in now 275-76
Felix the Cat
(9/22/2000; 9:39:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37206)
What's up?
Test
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 9:36:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 37205)
Baby Boomers
You're not seasoned yet, time for some margin calls and hard times, Charles Bronson, great movie.
Canuck
(9/22/2000; 9:26:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 37204)
Isn't that amazing!!
Gold rises all over the planet incrementally with each market and at exactly 08:30 it falls sharply.
@ Black Blade
I don't understand this FN/GOLD deal. I had purchased FN a month prior to the merger news and upon the announcement FN dropped in the order of 5-10%. I recall that vividly. The analysis was the uncertainty of S.A. with its currency issues and health issues etc. Now that we have talks of a 'de-merger' FN has dropped again. Why?
I don't get this 'stock' business at all; I'm one millimeter from sticking all my retirement money into T-bills and collecting physical only.
I wonder if anyone strongly concurs or opposes this notion?
TIA.
Canuck.
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 9:18:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37203)
nummus aureus/ hi hat
Thank you sir, Hi Hat much truth in your analysis.
Rockgrabber
(9/22/2000; 8:42:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 37202)
Euro Junk
What is the purpose of the euro for real? Its another fiat currency that the World Order can use to suck somemore wealth away from the people. Before a real major transition to a world currency backed by gold. For fiat is deathly sick and will be for the rest of its existance up untill its death, and all the world will beable to see it. The Euro is just a vehicle for its drivers to get to a world currency. First hyperinflate the dollar. The writing is on the wall. Now its just time. The intervention was perfect, now nothing more should hopefully come out of the G-7 meeting. Lets just keep hyperinflating the dollar for as long as it will stand. Looks as if the dollar will buy us much gold for a little longer even yet. GREAT
nummus aureus
(9/22/2000; 8:32:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 37201)
Wolavka: Injected Fields
To give you a partial answer from your request from yesterday, I infield drilled the old CityServices, Inc. leases in SE Kansas and NW OK during the late 70's. Almost 50 years after steam, CO2, and saltwater injection had been tried on them, (and then abandoned), we were able to bring them in at around 7 bbl average per day. 30-60 days later, they were back down to 2 bpd, the average output in Kansas. This was in Bartelesville Sand at roughly 1000'. Most attempts at injection are pretty much writeoffs, (or a simple solution to get rid of salt water.)
CO2 seemed to work so well at stopping oil flow, it was seriously considered as a possible solution on some gas wells in Missouri, rather than zone plugs.
I am unaware of any producer using injection profitably at a commercial level.
Pete
(9/22/2000; 8:09:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 37200)
Those that do not learn from history are bound to repeat it
The world financial markets are due for a slowdown because of the cabalists fear losing control of the POO and all commodities, especially gold and oil. Recall what they did to Asia to stop demand from outstripping supply? If I recall correctly, hard assets were beginning to shoot for the moon prior to the Asian crisis.
IMHO, they are going to do whatever they have to do to slow demand for all commodities by slowing or stopping growth. Will they be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat one more time or will this be the final straw that breaks the cabalists back?
Journeyman
(9/22/2000; 8:06:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 37199)
A tear @Peter Asher (9/22/2000; 0:44:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37164)
SIR Peter,
Now THAT was . . . It was, - - - - - I .....
THAT is ATMOSPHERE!!!
I have no say in these things of course, and not to slight other contestants, but . . . . It just is the first post that ever brought a tear to my eye.
High regards,
Journeyman
The Invisible Hand
(9/22/2000; 7:48:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 37198)
Euro and Gold are now moving in the same direction!
Yes, I know, euro's move cannot be attributed directly to market forces.
The Invisible Hand
(9/22/2000; 7:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37197)
BoE also intervening with Fed, BoJ and ECB
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_937000/937359.stm
Friday, 22 September, 2000, 11:59 GMT 12:59 UK
Central banks prop up euro
The European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England have joined forces to support the single currency, the euro.
As a result the euro gained more than 3 cents against the dollar, rising from a recent low of $0.8440 to 0.8936, before sliding back slightly.
The fact that four of the world's most important central banks have now acted together shows the deep level of concern about the euro's persistent weakness.
It is the first time that central banks have intervened to boost the euro, which has fallen more than 27% in value against the US dollar since it was launched in January 1999.
Market reaction
Market watchers described the intervention as "highly significant".
Glenn Davies of Credit Lyonnais said it would "a floor under the euro", especially as the Federal Reserve had joined the action.
The move caught the markets unawares. On Thursday there had been a brief surge in the euro, as traders expected a strong statement in support of the euro from the G7 summit in Prague.
But soon traders convinced themselves that the world's seven wealthiest countries would not act after all, and the euro began to slide again.
According to Minoru Ozawa of Sakura Bank in London, "everyone was thinking there would be no joint intervention even after the G7 meeting". As a result, he said, there was now "a bit of panic buying" which could push the euro to "much higher ... levels".
However, not everybody is convinced that this was enough to save the euro.
Analysts said central banks would have to push the euro well above $0.95 to really turn around the trend.
Ralph Solveen of Commerzbank in Frankfurt said the participation by other central banks besides the ECB had raised the chance of success.
But he warned the move could be counter-productive: "On one side, it shows the euro needs help, which is not a sign of strength for the euro. But on the other side, it could lead to fear in the market that further interventions are on the cards."
Joint action
Market analysts had always argued that an intervention by the European Central Bank alone would be doomed to failure, while the US Fed was seen as unlikely to move against the strong dollar before the presidential elections in a month's time.
In a statement, the ECB said: "On the initiative of the European Central Bank, the monetary authorities of the United States and Japan joined with the European Central Bank in concerted intervention in exchange markets."
It is unusual that the banks formally announced their intervention. Normally the news emerges when traders see buy or sell orders being placed on the market.
Black Blade
(9/22/2000; 7:34:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37196)
Everthing Looks Good, So Why is Au Pulling Back? Hmmmm....
Here we go! S&P Futures starting off at –29.50! Currencies rallying against the USD! Oil starting to move up again! Unfortunately Au is slipping back from a decent open. The manipulation game is on again.
Cavan Man
(9/22/2000; 7:24:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 37195)
Hello Trail Guide
With the CB action to bolster the Euro this "horse of a different color" appears to be the same old (fiat) nag.
Very much looking forward to your analysis. Thanks so much.
Clint H
(9/22/2000; 7:22:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 37194)
Strad Master msg#: 37169-
Trade Deficit vs Trade Surplus
Strad Master, I look at this as a plus/minus scale. We should be at a $30 billion per month surplus but instead are at a $32 billion deficit.
We are $62 billion per month from where we should be.
HI - HAT
(9/22/2000; 7:13:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 37193)
Wolavka___Black Blade____
I have thought for several months that the odd volumes and open interests were a fient, and that mojor manipulative forces were positioning themselves to break ranks-go long-
and deliver a kill shot. When time was right. Chaos in center stage markets, could make this the time.
To me the tip off was when it was announced that Goldman Sachs et al, were starting that new oil and metal exchange in Atlanta. Next is the Chase- JP Morgan merger.
The Gladiators left standing, must still be afforded a wave from Caesar even though he be displeased in how they won.
Galearis
(9/22/2000; 7:06:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37192)
silver paper price separating from the physical....
According to a GATA post from an email recieved there can be now (up to ?) a 40% difference in spot paper from physical/oz. The beat(ing) goes on. Such aberrations in physical purchases from your friendly local bullion banks are, of course, less likely to be reported on by the media - they can be dismissed as local or regional anomalies should there be questions... This is at least one way they can hide what goes on....Asign it to the hearsay level, keep things just that much more out-of-phase with the reality. Such clever little stupidities, yes?
Bad news for silver bugs. But still wonderfully cheap under $15/oz.
auspec
(9/22/2000; 7:06:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 37191)
Hey, What's Up Godsell?
Oh, excuse me, I meant to address you respectfully as General Godsell. Bobby, I'm hoping to help you get a grip on your outlandish behavior before you are forced out of your alma mater, AngleGuild, for repeat offenses. You know you are on a strict zero-tolerance policy that everyone but you fully understands. Apparently, we need to clarify for you exactly what this means so you can fully comprende.
First of all, if you continue to take your product to the masses, your contract requires that you sell through Neiman's Market as opposed to J. C. Pennie. We will not have you EXCESSIVELY cheapening the King of Clothing. All British sales are to be wholesale not retail. The rumors of selling thru McDonald's {Golden Arches} had better be just rumor! Gold will not work to color popcorn for Kracker Jacks boxes- don't even think of it.
The Board of Regents {sp?} continues to be dismayed over the company you insist on keeping, referring specifically to John Paul Morgana. You know good and well he is suspected of having an incestuous relationship with his uncle Sam. We were hoping that John Paul's friendship with that Deutsche gent was going to bear more fruit.
Unless you choose to spend the rest of your career in OBLIVION or fishing,or alongside Marty Armstrong you need to turn things around pronto. The merger With Buttick Gold must go thru w/o further glitches. We expect you to represent us proudly, elitely, and honorably at the upcoming WWF and WGC conventions, no excuses this time. Your verbal abuse of secretaries, players, and non-hedged clothing store execs must cease. We will soon review a video of you with your hands on an employee's neck, and hope against hope {not Arkansas} that you were only inspecting the AngloGuild gold thread in his tie.
We would be remiss if we didn't mention the few good deeds you have done for the Co. cause. We are on quite a winning streak and hope to finish #1 for the fourth time this year. You've done a nice job of fending off Midas Murph and the disgraceful value-gold doctrine he endlessly and shamelessly promotes without end ,unceasingly,forever, to the bitter end, always, evermore, and without a rest or many brews. Your ideas of gold-free jewelry stores and central banks hold promise. If you can work out the details on how to uneconomically get gold apparel for pets and 3rd world male children you may salvage your career from oblivion.
We do, indeed, wish you the best and ask that you always promote the AngleGuild Motto;SELL-SELL-SELL GOLD AT ANY COST, WHETHER YOU HAVE IT OR NOT?
Got Jewelry?
AUSPEC
P.S. This info may be freely distributed, my rights have been sold downriver years ago. Hint- surely there are no AngleGuild shareholders among us.
The Invisible Hand
(9/22/2000; 7:03:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37190)
euro intervention
http://news.bbc.co.uk
Haven't checked the website (electricity was down here, until 5 minutes ago)
but BBC World Service radio is reporting that Fed, BOJ and ECB intervened jointly today to ... prop the euro which rose to 90 cents to fall back to 85 cents.
"A surprise ahead of G7. Other surprise is the Fed's collaboration." that's what they are saying.
MO VER MEG
(9/22/2000; 6:52:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 37189)
Tapping Oil Reserves
To tap our oil reserves, I thought we needed an emergency in national scope? Buying votes (Gore's personal emergency) does not count.
What will we do in January/February when we really need the oil and Gore has already eaten the seed?
I am going back to work on my solar collector and cut more wood.
MO VER MEG
The Invisible Hand
(9/22/2000; 6:50:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 37188)
Those are the days, my friend ...
We're thinking they'll never end!
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 6:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 37187)
broke thru
already thru 4 major resistance trend lines, 5 more and locked limit up.
Black Blade
(9/22/2000; 6:26:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37186)
Gold up +$5.20 now!
Gold is just getting a bit feisty now. This could get very interesting. It looks like I lose the contest on gold price, but damn well worth it! A combination of extraordinary events converging at the end of the week! WOW!
Black Blade
(9/22/2000; 6:12:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 37185)
"Morning Wakeup Call!" - A WILD RIDE ON WALL STREET!
Sources: BridgeNews, Dow Jones and Reuters
THE EASTERN FRONT:
DJ Asia Precious Metals Mostly Higher; Market Awaits G7
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Spot gold rose $1.60 Friday in Asia from overnight levels in New York on hopes that G7 finance ministers and central bank governors, meeting this weekend in Prague, will take steps to reign in the strong U.S. dollar, which has been a thorn in the side of the gold market recently, traders said. Spot gold opened in Hong Kong at $271.75 a troy ounce, a solid $1.30 improvement over Thursday's close in New York, and inched higher throughout the session. Asian traders said the market was relieved to see that the gold price had climbed back above the psychologically important $270-mark overnight in New York after falling below $269 Thursday in Asia. But a bullion trader in Singapore said the impetus for today's rise was a slight weakening in the U.S. dollar against the Euro and Australian dollar. "A weak Euro obviously hurts European demand, and a weak Australian dollar tends to invite gold selling among Australian producers. So any improvement among these two currencies is going to be seen as a plus for gold," said this trader. The Australian dollar was quoted at US$0.5468 late Friday in Asia, up from US$0.5388 Thursday, while the Euro was trading around $0.8587, up from $0.8580 Thursday. With currency markets having such a strong hold over the gold market, traders said they will be carefully watching this weekend's G7 meeting for some indication that action will be taken to prop up the ailing Euro. A Japanese trader said that barring any sudden changes on the foreign exchange markets, gold should remain in a $269-$273/oz range for most of next week. Spot silver was slightly higher in sympathy with gold. Palladium was marginally higher, while platinum was a shade lower. Gold futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange ended the week on a good note, with the lead August 2001 contract adding Y11 a gram to close at Y932/gram.
Black Blade: Overnight equities markets were thrashed pretty hard. Most currencies gained against the USD, even the Brit Slider, Euro and Aussie Peso! Gold recovered it's recent losses. It looks as if the Bell Weather stock for the New Economy, Intel (INTC) is the trigger to all of this pent-up anxiety. The market was just looking for an excuse and they found one. Soft Landing? I think not!
THE WESTERN FRONT:
Franco-Nevada says will pursue other mergers
By Scott Anderson
TORONTO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Flush with a bulging war chest of funds and a strong balance sheet, Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. Ltd. (Toronto:FN.TO) said on Thursday it would continue to pursue mergers despite seeing its partnership with South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. quashed earlier in the day. ``We've been leaders in efforts to consolidate the industry and we intend to remain so,'' Franco president Pierre Lassonde told reporters. ``We are basically going to continue the process.'' The aggressive stance from the growing Canadian gold miner came less than 12 hours after the South African government blocked its merger with Gold Fields Ltd. , forcing Franco-Nevada to proclaim the merger ``dead.'' The companies announced in June a $3.7-billion all-stock deal to create the world's third-largest gold producer with annual output of 4.4 million ounces and its primary listing in Toronto. However, South African authorities denied Gold Fields exchange control approval on Thursday for its proposed merger with Franco-Nevada, saying it would not benefit the country's economy. ``We've decided the reality of this is that it is gone. Can it be resurrected? Anything is possible, but right now it is gone...it's dead and we're moving on,'' Franco-Nevada's board chairman and co-chief executive Seymour Schulich said in Toronto. Schulich said the company would now turn its attention to possible combinations that were put on the backburner when the Gold Fields plan was struck. He revealed that the company was in merger talks with at least four other parties, but did not elaborate. ``In the effort to find follow-on mergers, we've been involved with four different companies and now instead of being the follow-ons, they are going to be the primaries,'' Schulich said. Schulich said the company is a good financial position to pursue mergers. It reported record first-quarter earnings last month, has about C$1.1 billion ($737 million) in marketable assets, an amount it forecasts will grow to C$1.7 billion in five years. Analysts were sceptical that Franco would strike a deal any time soon. ``There are some obvious candidates. I think they have always been there, but I just don't see them fitting in with Franco Nevada,'' said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada, in Toronto. ``They have a lot of companies on their radar screens, but they have looked over the years and they have pretty tough criteria.''
Black Blade: If at first you don't succeed….
SNB GOLD: Swiss gold reserves down 116.3 mln Sfr to 37.5 bln Zurich--Sept. 21--The Swiss National Bank disposed of 116.3 million Swiss francs' worth of its gold reserves in the 10 days through Sept. 20, it announced Thursday. This is equivalent to around 9 tonnes, in line with analysts' expectations of daily sales of about one tonne until end-September, when new quotas take effect.
Black Blade: Captain Tony should watch these guys, they know how to discretely transfer gold.
THE AFRICAN FRONT:
South African Reserve Bank: No plans to sell gold
London--Sept. 21--The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will refrain from selling any of its gold reserves, SARB assistant general manager Alan Colburn told delegates at the Gold Fields Mineral Services seminar in London Thursday. European Central Bank (ECB) official Werner Studener meanwhile said that under no circumstances would the ECB "actively manage" its gold reserves in the next four years.
Black Blade: But these guys know what gold is for!
Meanwhile, Au is moving solidly up +$4.40, Ag up +$0.05, Pt is off -$2.00, and Pd down -$10.00. S&P Futures are down -19.50, Fair Value is -15.61, a solid drop like a lead balloon at the open on Wall Street at these levels. Could a battalion of PPT commandos initiate and assault Wall Street today? Brent North Sea Crude is down -$0.13 at $32.60/bbl, Light Sweet crude is off -$0.17 at $33.83/bbl, and NG is off -$0.05 at $5.35 Mbtu. A WILD RIDE TODAY - HANG ON!
Cavan Man
(9/22/2000; 5:58:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 37184)
wolavka
There's a Drake out in the 'burbs also. I prefer the loop.
Hard assets...Easy access
(9/22/2000; 5:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37183)
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (Happy Birthday to the Forum!!)
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
The previous Uruguayan 5 peso coin offer a few months ago was a remarkable success even as we predicted it would be. (If you haven't yet looked into these coins, check out the link given above.) In light of the low mintage, such that the entire world supply of these Uruguayan gold coins could be stored within 10 normal shoeboxes, Centennial is very pleased to be able to bring you this particular offer again. And because the size of our newly obtained cache is considerably smaller than was our initial offering, if you ever considered adding a few of these to your collection/portfolio, you will want to make your final decision soon. Only eight hundred of these uncirculated coins have been made available to us this time.
But that's not all...
We were also able to secure an equally exciting, though smaller, cache of 500 uncirculated Argentinos! Folks, these coins never stay around long. Not only do we have some clients capable of claiming the entire lot for themselves, they've actually done so in the past.
Let Centennial assist you with all of your precious metals needs. It is your decision to do business with Centennial that makes this website possible. Thanks for your support--past, present, and future.
SteveH
(9/22/2000; 5:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 37182)
I took a break and see what happens
ECB invites (or so CNBC says) the US and the BOE and the BOJ to intervene on behalf of the Euro and it spikes higher, which accounts for the spike in the POG, now up $4+ dollars (spot). Now, how coincidental is this on the same day that Dow futures are down 120, Nasdaq futures are down 92? Intel sets off a deluge of stock market selling and all this happens the same day? Some powerful forces at play. These aren't the conservative markets of my childhood, eh?
Black Blade
(9/22/2000; 5:34:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 37181)
RE: Canuck
Canuck #37179: The drop in price was a combination of things. The October contract expired, the current quote is for the Nov. contract (there was a backwardation of contract prices), Saudi stated that they had started shipping some excess oil (didn't say to where or who is going to store it), and Al Gore had his little dog and pony show while yammering about the Big Bad Oil Companies and that (I swear he said this): "Americans families deserve to have cheap gasoline to fill up their tanks." The API numbers for this week come out on Tuesday and I would think that the POO will begin to move up as people realize that talk won't cause petroleum distillates to magically appear at the gas station, and heating oil to suddenly arrive to anxious customers. The heating oil supplies are in short supply and should there be a normal/colder fall and winter then there will be some serious problems. What to do? Produce heating oil at the expense of vehicle fuels? Produce vehicle fuels at the expense of heating oil? Raise prices to spur conservation? It should become very interesting. As far as investments, you have to make the call. I invest in several energy companies, energy services, utilities and oil drillers. But I'm in for the long haul because the fundamentals of decreasing supply, lack of refining capacity and increasing demand are quite compelling. I started investing in these companies over the last 4 years and really stepped up buying into these companies when the fools (read analysts) on Wall Street seemed to have formed a consensus that oil was going to stay below $10.00/bbl which of course is absurd. I also have also considered that high oil prices have always preceded every post war recession and therefore it is good for gold. I have grabbed several ounces (gold and silver) while they are on sale. I am just looking at what I see as the Big-Picture view of the world and invest accordingly. But you have to decide what is best for you. Yeah, I even have Intel stock, so who am I to give investment advice?
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 5:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 37180)
Look it up
Read Alan Guths' theory on inflationary Universe.
Canuck
(9/22/2000; 4:58:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 37179)
@ Black Blade
Thanks for your responses.
I guess we'll see what FN does next; should be interesting.
I guess the refinery limitation is the key to the oil issue(s) presently. Yes I agree with the soon to be "unscheduled maintenance " shutdowns soon to come.
What do you make of the 3 or 4 dollar drop in oil in the last couple days; just an aberration? I'm holding some bucks
in an energy fund, bail out or hold?
Thanks again, here's to FN, oil, and gold.
Canuck.
HappyGoldLucky
(9/22/2000; 4:43:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 37178)
******CONTEST #1*******
Good morning. Just to make sure my entry of yesterday is properly prefaced in the subject title, as per contest rules.
HappyGoldLucky (09/21/00; 12:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37127)
Contest#1: My 153 words
If I, a USAGOLD "poster", were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be...
...growing nervousness in the US stock market this fall, leading to a correction in share prices and the dollar. This would set off a sharp gold price rally.
This would manifest as s gradual increase in share price volatility in coming weeks, but trending down. During the middle of October, large sell orders would come from abroad, weakening also the dollar. The scene would be set towards the end of the month for generalized panic to sweep the markets and drag paper assets down - way down. The dollar would then continue to slide, as money flowed overseas, into currencies like DM, SFr and Yen. At this point the gold price would rise sharply, initially propelled by producer and bullion bank short covering in foreign markets. In doing so, it would attract the attention of panicky investors, setting off a stampede into gold investments - the only safe haven in a real crisis.
--------
BTW, Black Blade thank you for your thoughts. Sounds like there are no loosers when it comes to investing in basic gold coins. Just a matter of personal preference (taste).
Gold Addict
(9/22/2000; 4:28:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 37177)
***********"CONTEST #1"************
If I, a USAGOLD lurker were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be the collapse of the US dollar. Because the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world, its collapse would effect the entire world's economic structure causing other major currencies pegged to the dollar to collapse as well, stagflation, high unemployment, political unrest, and financial panick. As a result, gold would soar in price as nations recognized the infallability of politicians and the importance of a gold standard of some kind. Once again gold would regain its role as the only true safe-haven for preservation of wealth and savings.
Happy Birthday USA Gold!!!
Journeyman
(9/22/2000; 4:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 37176)
If I owned one @SteveH, ALL
If I owned an AK-47, Mini-14, etc., it would be an ANTI-assault rifle.
He/she who defines the terms wins.
Regards,
Journeyman
wolavka
(9/22/2000; 4:13:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 37175)
cavan man
Windy city.
And now to the serious side, MOE, LARRY, CHEESE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SteveH
(9/22/2000; 3:50:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 37174)
Protecting gold...
I am on a role. Bear (no pun intended) with me on this one... (I remind everyone that what goes on with guns, gold will be next...any doubters, see the great gold confiscation of 1933).
This was pulled from a discussion list. These are my thoughts:
More.
The counter argument to Ms. Brady's lifetime ambition to do away with handguns and assault rifles and develop smart guns is simple. She represents the side of the equation that in a free society where guns are legal for obvious proper reasons of self-defense, defense of the state, and deterrance against tyranny and foreign attack there will always be an element of people who misuse guns. This misuse of guns can be countered by the very right she seeks to limit. For in this gun-full society, the gun is the person's (and the State's) defense against their misuse. Her logic is simple, yet misdirected. She believes in her heart that by eliminating guns, she will eliminate the misuse of guns. In so doing she must recognize several legitimate uses of guns, however, such as hunting. In this manner, only guns for the purpose of hunting can be legitimate. This seems to reflect her argument well.
But, let's look at what she is missing. The statitics of gun violence can always be attacked by measures that seem to reduce the statitics. In other words, if gun violence is rampant, reduce gun violence. To reduce gun violence, (as in putting out a fire), get rid of one part (or more) of the equation that creates or leads to gun violence -- guns. This statistical or "attack guns" approach fails to properly weigh the reason guns even exist in the first place. If guns exist for the legitimate purpose of protection of the state against criminals, for the protection of the individual themselves against criminals, against tyarrany, and against foreign attack, then to eliminate guns is to open the State and the person to attack against criminals, against foreign powers, and finally removes a deterrence from a government pre-disposed to greater federal powers.
The above relationship of guns, people, and government reminds one of the three elements essential to create fire -- the fire being life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Without one of the three elements, there is no fire. Fire, in this case, is the balance that the proper use of guns brings to our American society. This balance is the check against misuse of guns by the state, the criminal, or foreign powers against the State and/or the individual. Without the gun, anyone of these elements could rise dominant to the other and cause undue societal distress or an abuse of power. The problem of gun control is that it seeks to disturb this time-proven balance of power, this check against one of the above elements. That is why some gun-rights advocates complain of the treasonous behavior of organizations such as HCI (Handgun Control, Inc.) -- it is because they see one element of balance being thwarted, even though the intention of HCI seems to be directed against violence with handguns or the misuse of the criminal or the innocent child with criminal-like lack of responsibility with a gun. In their attempt to eliminate violence they destroy the balance that guns bring to the individual and the State, thus causing irreperable harm to a society that is showing its age.
It is inevitable that the existance of guns will cause misuse of these guns. Yet in the search for a society that is completely safe from guns and violence with guns, is a society that has completely comprimised the above balance of power allowing one of the elements to become dominant against the others. In a gunless society, the federal element will become dominant, which will also lead to a weakend populous because it will subject to attack by foreign powers. The society that sacrifices its balance of the individual, state, and foreign threats held in check by the properly armed citizen, police officer, and military person will create a society where the values, beliefs, and mores are allowed to vanish for the sake of safety. But this safety, of the child, of the person, of the society will come at a tremendous loss in one essential element that protects our way of life that even allows the existence of organizations such as HCI. In other words, the balance in the elements of power held in check by the keeping and bearing of arms by the individual and the state will also cause the destruction of the organization seeking to eliminate the use of pistols, and assault rifles as a common weapon used for the proper defense of self or society. Yes, HCI and other organization must seek a society in which the Federal powers have the right to eliminate the defense of the individual in favor of the defense of the state at the cost of the individual. Is this the America we were brought up in?
No, America and freedom are synomous. To remove the freedom to protect oneself with guns is to eliminate a check on the abuse of a foreign or federal power. The creation of smart guns, which can only be used by one individual, the elimination or prohibition (partial or otherwise) of assault rifles, and the elimination or restriction of handguns from the common hand of men and women, all threaten the fine balance of power that our founding mothers and fathers so sought to protect. Why? Because they learned under the oppression of the British government and their heritage that a society that seeks to take away the gun is a society lacking in one or more elements of balance against tyranny and abuse of power. Ironically, the US was founded by revolution against a governemnt that sought to eliminate the gun from common men and women. It is no wonder then that the greatest debate of the 21st century should come full circle. Gun control is a disease that seeks to eliminate the gun as a the eternal flame tha protects the greatness of the American society that is comprised of the person and the state against anyone element rising in strength or power above the other or that would cause a foreign enemy to believe that we are so weakened by our own lack of defensive posture. The gun is a symbol of freedom, but more, it is a proper tool of deterrance against a tendancy of government to forget its proper place of serving the people. Oddly, the more the government or organizations who have forgotten their history seek to control guns, the greater they confirm what our founders sought to guarantee by way of the Second Amendment -- the right to keep and bear arms, necessary for a free society. Any infringement of this essential element of balance merely destroys the fine balance of freedoms and privledges our ancestors sought to protect in the past. Are we such a different society today that we can take away or control the gun or are we a society that needs to properly train its people in the proper use of guns so that those who seek to abuse them will be met by individuals or police who are trained and can deter this abuse?
HCI is well intentioned but has un-American ideals. You can't have a free society without violence; you can't have free society without guns. You can only have a society without guns when the individual is deprived of that gun by the government or a foreign power. Therefore, what HCI and other such organization seek is a destruction of the balance that guns bring against any one element becoming dominant against the other and this, my friends "ain't" American. The greater the government seeks to take guns out of the hands of citizens, the greater the right for the individual to keep them -- for that is the defintion of tyranny, a government who seeks to eliminate rights in favor of the government. Tyranny starts with a seed and grows. It may not at first be seen, but those who have watched it grow in other countries or in history know the look and feel when they see it and gun control is most assuredly a seed that must not be watered nor cultivated. Seek other alternatives to the violence problem. Social sciences have come along way. Seek alternate solutions than gun control. It isn't effective anyway.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, September 21, 2000 11:16 PM
Subject: Re: mi-rkba: Assault rifles
The other side of this coin is that since the 2nd Amendment is an individual constitutional right, the government must prove a compelling state interest in banning assault rifles -- it can't because there is not one. The purpose of assault weapons is to protect against assault which is a basic precept of the 2nd amendment. Self-defense of the country is a basic premise. How can this be done with just hunting guns? It can't. In attempting to save lives (which has no scientific basis in fact) by limiting criminal or crazy person access to highly effective weapons, they will ultimately hurt the ability of the country to counter foreign attack. Anyone who saw the film Red Dawn will appreciate this observation. Fact is, we have elected people who need to be voted out of office. If our two party system doesn't provide alternative candidates who will support and defend the constitution then it is time to vote for candidates, regardless of party who will. I believe the party system has become corrupted with big money and forgotten the principles upon which this nation was found. If an elected official can't see the benefit of the RKBA then vote them out or impeach them out. Failure to protect the Constitution by allowing others to infringe is tantamount to infringing it themselves, imo.
If the government can not find a particularized threat of people with assault weapons they have no right to limit or restrict them unreasonably. Banning them is a prohibition and is not reasonable. It is a too-broad based abuse of Federal powers. The California case on assault weapons that lost in their Supreme court was fought on weak ground. They should have fought it under the 2nd Amendment.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, September 21, 2000 10:33 PM
Subject: mi-rkba: Assault rifles
Let us think about the article I wrote the other day regarding the right to keep a concealed arm. Let's apply that same logic to the right to keep and bear an assault rifle (not automatic). Any ban on an "assault rifle" is a direct infringement of the 2nd Amendment of the US Constitution and directly counters the logic of the Supreme court in US v Miller (1937).
The point of "assault rifles" is for the general population to be able to act as a member of the militia should the need exist. Now, who do you think our enemy would be? Hunters or a well-trained and armed army? Chances are that should the militia as discussed in the Second Amendment be called to duty against tyranny or against an external enemy that enemy will have full-auto weapons. So, is the act of classifying semi-auto rifles and shotguns as assault weapons and then infringing their ownership counter to the purpose of the 2nd Amendment? You bet.
That means that should the trend of classifying semi-automatic weapons as assault weapons become more prolific, the "militia" (all the US people between 18 and ?) will be completely under armed by modern military standards. The practice of banning or restricting the ownership of semi-auto rifles or pistols is a practice that infringes the special balance of power in the US constitution. It further weakens our Nations ability to respond to domestic or international attack, because the citizenry will be completely unarmed.
The right to own an "assault weapon" is an individual right strongly guaranteed by the US Constitution.
See Brady's illogical conclusion re: above:
Brady:
Assault weapons are not just "ugly guns." Semi-automatic hunting rifles are designed to be fired from the shoulder and depend on the accurate shooting of one bullet at a time. Semi-automatic assault weapons are designed to be spray-fired from the hip and are designed to maximize death and injury from a very rapid rate of fire. Assault weapons are designed with military features such as silencers, folding stocks, flash suppressors, barrel shrouds and bayonets, which are ludicrously unsuited for civilian use.
Handgun Control supported and saw the successful passage of California's new assault weapon law, which for rifles prohibits folding or telescoping stocks, protruding pistol grips, bayonet mounts, threaded muzzles or flash suppressors or grenade launchers(!). Pistols cannot have magazines that extend beyond their grips, threaded muzzles, barrel shrouds, an unloaded weight of 50 ounces or more or be a semi-automatic version of a fully automatic weapon. Shotguns must also not utilize the folding stocks or protruding grips appropriate for military use, accept detachable magazines or have fixed magazine capacity greater than five rounds.
Now, for this knowledgeable audience, let me pose these questions: Do any of these prohibitions impede your hunting or sporting pursuits? Or do they just make it more difficult for madmen with military firepower to go out hunting humans?
Golden Calf
(9/22/2000; 3:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 37173)
Good for the LONG TERM
If I may take just a minute of your time to summarize, what
has been said with words and pictures for several years,
that is.......that gold and the PMs are a buy, and a hold for the
long term.
Whether you believe that markets are manipulated or not, it's a simple
thing to have confirmation for an investment decision. Just
look at a long term chart,(monthly) of most of the major and minor gold, and
silver stocks, and what should become apparent, without knowing
much about how to interpret technicals, is that the shares have been in a
sideways pattern for approximately 2 years, with increasing volume.
This is generally accepted behavior, for a lengthy period of accumulation.
IMHO the time is now right for the direction of the markets to change,
LONG TERM, and whether 100% right, or not, it's a good long term
investment, and a patient investor, should do quite well, from
here on.
Long term, is what I advocate.....LONG TERM!
Not for just a day, not for just a year......but always!
....................
and a little humor, for the weekend
1. The Wall Street Journal is read by the people who
run the country.
2. The New York Times is read by people who think> they run the country.
3. The Washington Post is read by people who think
they ought to run the country.
4. USA Today is read by people who think they ought
to run the country but don't understand the Washington Post.
5. The Los Angeles Times is read by people who
wouldn't mind running the country, if they could spare the time.
6. The Boston Globe is read by people whose parents
used to run the country.
7. The New York Daily News is read by people who> aren't too sure who's running the country.
8. The New York Post is read by people who don't care
who's running the country, as long as they do something scandalous.
9. The San Francisco Chronicle is read by people who
aren't sure there is a country, or that anyone is running it.
10. The Miami Herald is read by people who are
running another country.
Black Blade
(9/22/2000; 2:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 37172)
Gold a bit Perky Tonight!
Au is up a bit +$2.20, S&P Futures pegged down -24.60, and Markets in Asia and Europe are getting thoroughly slaughtered! Should be quite Entertaining tomorrow. Gold could be warming up on the launch pad! Hmmmm......
Black Blade
(9/22/2000; 2:37:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 37171)
@Peter Asher #37168
Peter! I think you may be on to something there. Still begs the question, knowing what is coming down the road, do either of these guys really want the job? BTW, no matter who wins, I think I'll need the prozac ;-)
Strad Master
(9/22/2000; 2:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 37170)
Russia and teh Palladium market
This was today's Stratfor Intelligence Update. It will be of special interst to those who follow Palladium but should, certainly, impact metals in general:
The Russian Finance Ministry has assumed control of the country's
precious metals and gems. The ministry now has command over 80
percent of the world's palladium reserves - and that will give the
ministry greater leverage over Western governments and multilateral
lending institutions.
On Sept. 18, control of the government bodies that manage Russia's
precious metals and gems was handed over from the Economic
Development Ministry to the Finance Ministry. For the first time,
the Finance Ministry - the ministry that represents Russia in its
financial dealings with the outside world - now controls 80 percent
of the world's palladium reserves.
This transfer of authority should be raising alarms in Western
business circles. Russia stockpiles palladium as other countries
used to stockpile gold - but since it controls so much of the
global supply, Moscow can easily manipulate the market to its
advantage, and has done so in the past. In early August, for
example, palladium prices hit a record $859 an ounce after fears of
a delay in promised Russian deliveries to Japan.
In addition, the Russian palladium industry is tightly controlled
by the state: All sales must be approved by presidential decree,
and all information on production, stocks or exports is deemed
classified.
In the same reorganization, the Finance Ministry also assumed
control over the country's platinum and diamond industries.
Information on these industries is classified as well. While Russia
is a major player in these markets - it provides 20 percent of
world platinum supplies, for example - the near-monopolistic
control it holds over palladium is exceptional.
__________________________________________________________________
Promote global intelligence. Forward this newsletter to your
colleagues and friends!
__________________________________________________________________
Unlike diamonds and platinum, palladium has no aesthetic value, but
it's become crucial to modern economies, with a range of uses that
dwarfs the importance of the jewelry market. Palladium's high
conductivity makes it a material of choice in a wide array of high-
technology goods such as cellular phones and laptop computers, but
what makes it truly valuable is its effectiveness as a chemical
catalyst.
Palladium has replaced platinum as the preferred catalyst in
catalytic converters, which reduce motor vehicles' output of
pollutants. Although palladium costs roughly twice as much as
platinum by weight, palladium-based converters require less metal,
making the older platinum-based technology less economical. In the
United States and other developed markets with stringent auto-
emissions standards, almost every new car sold incorporates
palladium as a key component.
Palladium is also the primary catalyst used in fuel cells, a new
technology that could revolutionize the electric power industry
over the next few years. Fuel cells are a type of portable,
environmentally-clean power generator similar to a reusable high-
voltage battery. They can be installed in homes, businesses or cars
- making their users largely independent from the petroleum market
- and should enter the mass market in 2003.
As a result of its increasing practical value, global demand for
palladium in 1999 more than doubled from 1998 with no corresponding
increase in supply, causing stockpiles to be sold down to bare-
bones levels. Now, most of the world's most valuable metal is under
the thumb of Russia's Finance Minister, Mikhail Kasyanov. The
question is: What will he do with his added influence?
Strad Master
(9/22/2000; 2:07:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 37169)
Trade Deficit vs Trade Surplus
Today, on the radio I heard a guy commenting on the US Trade Deficit say that "Were it not for the Price of Oil the US would have a Trade SURPLUS." That sounds far-fetched to me. I know for a fact that down the road apiece from me the Long Beach Harbor exports considerably more materiel than comes in. I don't know enough about it, though, to make a cogent rebuttaal and the subject may come up in conversation some time in the future. Anyone have any facts that I can use?
Peter Asher
(9/22/2000; 2:03:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 37168)
Black Blade (9/22/2000; 0:45:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 37165)
Just a minute there! Step back and look at the "Money Trail" and let's follow it. This is all starting to make lots of sense.
Really BIG business has been taking it in the teeth from the environmentalists. They're candidate is floundering around trying to learn public speaking skills and making an ass out of himself, so what's a poor Oil Baron to do?
The OPEC fellows got the USA Sheeple hooked on fuel consumption just like a drug dealer with cheap samples. Just one example if I may digress a little here.
I drive a ‘97 F-150 with all the bells and whistles in the cab, it's also my ‘car'. But when I want to pull 4000 lbs of tractor and loader on 2000 lbs of trailer, it takes it in stride. Same goes for a load of lumber or even 3 cu. Yds of sand.
Now if you remove the bed and instead of the tight back seat put on a full SUV rear configuration, you now have an Expedition or a Navigator. Same power train, frame, front body front interior, etc..
I know ‘Jill Trophy Wife' and all the chubby little cherubs may be putting on a few pounds on all that fast food but that's a lot of piston friction and inertia going on to move these people around.
When I was working down in Orange county last winter these monsters were all over the boulevards. Not an ‘Off road" to go off on or a dirty vehicle in sight.
Back in the days of Rubens paintings obesity was a status symbol, meant you could afford to get fat. Now it's gas-guzzling: The bigger the vehicle, the more the money for fuel is no object! Now they're all manufactured and out there and the whole country needs to use gas to get to work anyway so there you are.
In the decade I've been in Oregon, I've found that advocating mass transit is the .equivalent to being a Gold Bug at a mutual fund convention. There afraid their property tax will go up to finance it so they'll sit in gridlock inhaling oil excretion and losing enough earning time to pay those taxes ten times over.
Well that was more then one example; I got worked up!
So why should OPEC get all this business??
This looks like a "Set Up" here.
The Democrats think that Tinsel-town will keep them in office, Hah! The Energy Industry could buy downtown Hollywood lock stock and barrel and turn it into a golf course!
So with the Party of Big Business taking a beating at the (rigged?) Polls we have the grand game.
Create an Oil Glut to get ‘em hooked to the degree there cannot be enough fuel on line even if OPEC pulls out all the stops. Then with OPEC no longer being the bad Guys. The enemy is now about to be seen as mister big-shot environmentalist The Democratic contender who has just spent the last half of his life working overtime to suddenly discover that he's the "Patsy" This is beautiful, it's brilliant. I admire whoever thought it up, it's pure genius. Go ahead, tell me I'm having bleary eyed, late night, conspiracy fantasies. It's just so PERFECT!
They didn't ALLOW them to print that: this is the "Script." The timing is just right! You bet it's counter to everything Al Gore said last night. I've been wondering for several weeks now, when the Republicans were going to do something. I thought there only hope was to dump Bush, but to late and for whom?
This reminds me of the much heralded Joe Lewis/Billy Kahn fight back around ‘48 or so. For almost 7 rounds they circled each other with nothing but feints, no contact as I recall and then, Wham! Lewis had him out cold in seconds.
BTW, I don't like either one for President, but the President isn't the controlling factor in any event: There are just different agendas.
However, consider Gore's plan to have a First, prescription drugs funded for all and than Two have medical aid available for all CHILDREN!!! Can you spell Ritalin and Prozac? He'll drug the next generation into oblivion!!! NOTHING threatens the survival of free society more than this one potential.
SHIFTY
(9/22/2000; 1:39:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 37167)
(No Subject)
Previous Ponzi Pimple Popping Post Perfectly Predicted Present Predicament Precisely !
Good Night All
$hifty
Peter Asher
(9/22/2000; 0:52:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37166)
tommorrow
I'll bet every member of the PPT and every "Spin doctor" in the western world are all tanking up on strong coffee and doing all-nighters to try and capture this beast.
Keep your eye on the 'Ball' at 5:30 AM ETD.
Black Blade
(9/22/2000; 0:45:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 37165)
Energy Execs Blame EPA for Role in Tight Supply
I Can't Believe That They Allowed This Article To Make Into Print!!!!!
By Julie Vorman
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. energy executives and some Republican lawmakers railed against the Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday for regulations that make it too difficult to build new refineries, electricity plants or fuel storage tanks at a time when the nation needs more energy. Soaring prices for fuel oil, natural gas and electricity have already shut down some mining firms and threaten to cause power outages at other businesses, said Rep. Dan Burton, chairman of the House Government Reform committee. ``Windmills and solar power aren't going to solve the problem,'' Burton said. ``It seems to me we ought to revisit some of these regulations so we can get more production of the fuels that are needed by the American consumer,'' he added. The Republican-led panel heard testimony from industry executives who criticized federal environmental regulations for blocking or slowing plans to expand facilities. But any move to relax environmental rules are certain to meet with opposition from many Democrats and green groups. They contend the best answer to tight energy supplies are incentives to encourage conservation and efficiency, requiring more fuel-efficient vehicles and more federal research.
Power Plant Delayed By 1 Person
Calpine Corp. (NYSE:CPN - news) said it aims to build eight new power plants this year and next to help ease electricity problems which caused brown-outs throughout California this summer. ``Unfortunately, we are frustrated in attempting to build these new, highly-efficient and clean power plants because current permitting procedures allow for the imposition of 'automatic stays' on the construction of new power plants, even when these stays are based on inaccurate, frivolous or unsubstantiated claims,'' said Calpine vice president Curt Hildebrand. In one instance, a lone individual's complaint under the EPA's Clean Air Act held up Calpine's construction of a natural gas-fueled power plant in Sutter County, California. The objection, which was eventually thrown out by regulators, delayed the project by six months and added ``millions of dollars'' in costs, Hildebrand said. An estimated 3 percent annual increase in U.S. electricity demand means about 22,500 megawatts of new power need to be added every year, he said. John Santa, owner of Santa Energy of Bridgeport, Conn. which sells 4 million barrels of products annually, blamed EPA regulations for adding unnecessary expenses to storage. Since 1993, the government began requiring petroleum distributors to separate diesel into two tanks, one for heating oil and one for motor fuel. That means separate tanks, pumps and trucks as well, adding to the cost, Santa said. ``Threats of pollution difficulties, OSHA compliance issues, pressure from developers -- all of these add up to a very unappealing prospect for a terminal company,'' he said.
NO NEW REFINERIES?
Oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - news) urged lawmakers to balance environmental concerns against energy supplies. U.S. refineries are now straining at more than 95 percent of capacity to churn out enough gasoline and heating oil, but no new plants have been built in a generation. Currently, there are 155 U.S. refineries with a combined capacity of 16.3 million barrels per day. ``The federal government needs to employ sound science coupled with rigorous cost-benefit analysis and proceed at a pace that allows investments to be made in an orderly fashion that does not further threaten the supply of fuels to U.S. consumers,'' said Steve Simon, president of Exxon Mobil's refining division. Refiners also complained that the EPA's plans to tighten rules for sulfur in diesel fuel and to phase out gasoline additive MTBE are costly and too strict. More than $7 billion has already been spent by refiners during the past decade to comply with environmental regulations, said Bob Slaughter, general counsel of the National Petroleum and Refiners Association. Refiners must provide nine types of gasoline to address varying state and federal rules for clean air, he said. ``EPA is setting fuel and vehicle emission requirements that simply may not be feasible, or may only be achieved at the risk of much tighter energy supplies and greater price volatility,'' he added. Some companies have already been stung by high energy costs. A Montana copper mining firm said it was forced to shut down operations at the end of June after electricity prices rocketed from $35 a megawatt to $650 per megawatt. ``If we don't come up with some solutions soon, the basic industries of the West are in for additional shutdowns,'' said Ray Tilman, a Montana Resources official. The company had been spending about $1.1 million a month on electricity when it was priced at $35 a megawatt. Until prices decline, Montana Resources cannot afford to resume copper production, he said. One potential solution, he said, is for Bonneville Power Administration to find technology to help migrating fish so it could step up power production from the Columbia River.
Black Blade: Truly amazing that the media actually got this article published! Someone is going to lose their job over this! This is counter to everything that Al Gore said in his campaign speech yesterday. This is the most telling part: "Currently, there are 155 U.S. refineries with a combined capacity of 16.3 million barrels per day." ONLY 16.3 million barrels per day!!!!! We use over 27 million per day now in the US! (Worldwide over 77 million barrels). We also have to pound out a few barrels for heating oil as the shortages are definitely and absolutely will show up this winter, and if it's a normal or colder winter – then look out! Now seriously, maybe this is the reason we have two incompetent idiots running for president instead of some worthwhile. No one with any intelligence doesn't want the job.
Peter Asher
(9/22/2000; 0:44:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37164)
******CONTEST #1*******
I, a USAGOLD poster keep returning to this Forum because as follows --
"Best Place In Town"
Another long day! It sure is nice to get out on this beautiful September evening. What's great about this place is that it never closes. No matter how late my work runs, I can always find good company and real conversation.
There it is. "The Olde Round Table Inn." All lit up tonight for the second birthday celebration, I'll bet it's really jumping inside.
Whoo-boy, that door is heavy. Hi, Townie. You look in good shape. Had to bounce anyone this week? No? That's great. You need to do it sometimes to keep the decorum up to snuff, but it always leaves a bad feeling for a bit afterwards. All dressed up for the party tonight I see. Hope you don't have to go down in the cellar to fix the lights tonight.
Javaman! How you feeling after that stint in the chophouse? Glad they didn't take anything else out. Thought we'd see more of you after you sold the two-wheeler. Speaking of which, is TheStranger here tonight, or is he out chasing the moon on the ‘cicle? Yeah right, he'll show up later for sure.
Hey guys hold me a place over there at the Big Round. I want to go over to the back booth and chat with Leigh and CavanMan. How's that foot doing, Milady — better? That's great! CM, sure was good they didn't keep you on the road today. Would have been a shame to miss this. Ho! There's the Wiz. Gandalf, come over here and show these folks that nugget around your neck. I knew you'd wear it tonight. Boy, that's gorgeous. Just lies there in the river like that? Amazing!
There's Aragorn and Ari over in the other corner. Got their heads together about something.
Is that a large book they're huddled over? You don't suppose it's ORO's manuscript, do you?
That would really be something.
Oh yes: YO PEOPLE!! Just ‘cause it's a big party night is no excuse not to show up for TG's hike tomorrow. Yeah, I know, but my head hurts too sometimes when I try to follow him, and I don't drink.
Has anyone heard from Tomcat lately? I last talked to him in early June. He said that what he got out of all that Y2K prep was discovering that incredible place in the Rockies. Says he's going to stay there forever.
Journeyman, Black Blade, Bonedaddy, let me squeeze in here. Hi Phoenix! Glad you discovered us in time for this. You guys got this oil crisis solved? How ‘bout using SUV's for ship moorings? Gandalf tells me they're using ‘Macintoshes' for small boat anchors up his way. Hey Al, how's this price thing affecting the business. I'll bet your having nightmares over the thought of gas lines again. Evening wolkava; Heard a full paragraph from you the other night. Careful there, you don't want to lose that unique image. You've made ‘succinct' into an art form! Shifty, knew you wouldn't miss this. Hey there Ross. mad day on the floor after the Intel news? I wonder if Canuck and canamami make it down here tonight? Speaking of distance, maybe next year we should pass the hat and get some plane tickets for CB2, Topaz and Zenidia.. Oh yes, Hi- Hat! what IS the story behind that weird new name?? --- Whew! Glass is empty,, excuse me a minute; I'm going up to the bar for another one of these alcohol-free mead drinks.
Hello, Jeff. Being the Server as always, I see. You never seem to get in on the discussions, I notice, and I was just wondering — Do you ever go incognito under another identity? Not saying, huh? OK, just a hunch. Give me a large portion of that golden stuff in one of the silver goblets, if you don't mind. Need to have the proper image tonight. I'm glad you guys are still taking Fiat for the drinks; I guess one of these days ----
You know, the other night, Michael was saying how Steve always talks shop? Well, you remember that time he was in the middle of that huge multi-car wreck? He came right in here to talk about it. I think it really says something about this crowd that when someone has an upsetting experience in life, they feel that the folks here are people they can share it with. Turned out the incident was even "on subject," as in, "I am Authority" After he had helped several folks, when the ambulance driver finally got there, the guy's only words were, "Just get back in your car, sir." Robin and I use that phrase now to come to instant agreement whenever we run into one of these creeps.
I sure get a lot out of coming here. When it first opened, I used to just look in the window. Felt I wasn't up to the caliber of the clientele. But one day, Michael started these special welcoming events with prizes and all, and I took the chance. Now when I look back, it seems I can't quite remember who I was then. This place really has a powerful effect on you.
It's funny; I was asked the other day why I keep coming back here. I don't go anywhere else. I tried those places up the street but they're basically downers. Up at "The Kit ‘n Kaboodle," they're always carrying on, throwing beer-nuts at each other. Raucous bunch, mostly, although there are a few really good thinkers that hang out there, I figure there are enough people that show up here after making the rounds, if there's anything noteworthy, I'll find out about it. Same goes for getting the drift from "The Eagle Saloon". Meaningful data from there too, but I hear the proprietor 86's you in an eye-blink if he doesn't like where you're coming from. Nope, for me, this is it. I have a lot to do in life, and I just need one place to call home for relating to the outside world.
I just wish the rest of that world communicated like everyone here does!
Well, enough of pouring my heart out to the bartender. Hey, here comes MK! Is that Gold thread woven into that jacket? Perfect! Best wishes to your establishment on its second birthday, Michael.
May there be Many Happy Returns!!!!
Golden Truth
(9/22/2000; 0:38:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 37163)
OH MY GOD!
The Nasdaq WILL be opening 190-200 points lower in the morning! There will be BLOOD in the streets as everyone heads for the exits.
GOT GOLD???????????????????????????? :-))
G.T
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