Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.
The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/22/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Simply Me (08/22/00; 23:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35359) @ Trail Guide...Oil Up/Dollar Up? I don't post much because I don't have anything to do with the stock market, gold mines or any form of paper wealth (except for a 401K that's supposed to be invested in so-many gold bars with my name on 'em). I figure if I don't understand them enough to join in an intelligent conversation on such matters, I've got no business investing the welfare of my family in them. And that's OK...because so far most of it looks like gambling to me, and I've never been a very good loser. But I am trying to get a handle on the relationships of these things to oil/gold/dollar value, because they point to the direction the American economy is going....and that DOES make a difference in where my wealth is stored. My question: Would it be right to say that the price of oil is rising because the value of the dollar in relation to gold is falling? The price of gold is manipulated by the paper market, so that isn't reflecting the correct POG. But when I look at the relationship of the dollar to other currencies, it seems to be very strong (too strong!). Are all currencies wrongly valued? Is the hidden price of gold causing these distortions? Since small amounts of gold can still be bought easily (and I would say that someone socking away $50,000 for a rainy day isn't too demanding on a world market measured in tons), what size purchase would trip the wire on the POG and send it racing for the moon? And why doesn't someone make that purchase in physical? Or would they meet the same fate as the big banker (sorry, can't remember the name...something starting with S?) for ending the game too soon?Thanks for your time and patience. simply me Black Blade (08/22/00; 23:24:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 35358) API numbers - inflation? Thought Cheeta slayed the Dragon! API posts big drop in crude stocks NEW YORK ( CBS.MW ) -- October crude futures rallied to more than $32 a barrel in overnight Tuesday trading after a key report said crude inventories as of the week ended Aug. 18 plunged 7.8 million barrels -- a dramatic turnabout from the forecast rise of at least 300,000 "Forget everything else -- we're back to record-low stocks again," Phil Flynn, a senior energy analyst at Chicago brokerage house Alaron.com, exclaimed just after the data was released. He also said the latest data was a "shocker" and will have "explosive" effects. In after-hours Access trading, October crude oil added 84 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $32.06 a barrel. After the markets closed, the American Petroleum Institute said crude stocks, as of the week ended Aug. 18, dropped a whopping 7.8 million barrels to total 279.7 million barrels. Miscalculated The data defied market expectations for a 300,000-barrel to 700,000-barrel rise, according to a Bridge New survey. Gasoline inventories fell 1.14 million barrels, the API said, on the high end of expectations for a drop of 800,000 barrels to 1.2 million barrels. API's measure of distillate supplies, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, unexpectedly declined by 2.9 million barrels, despite expectations for a rise of 2.5 million to 2.9 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery production rose to 96.9 percent of capacity from the prior week's revised 95.7 percent, the API reported. Ahead of the news on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, September crude fell $1.25 to close at $31.22 a barrel. October crude, which is now the front-month contract, fell 76 cents to $31.22. September heating oil declined 1.97 cents to 90.35 cents per gallon, and September unleaded gasoline slipped 2.60 cents to 93.33 cents per gallon. September natural gas fell 22.7 cents to $4.52 per million British thermal units. Contract expiration, waning hurricane fears pressure oil Oil shares closed almost flat while prices fell Tuesday, pressured by the expiration of the September contract and waning concerns that a hurricane will affect production in the Virgin Islands or the Gulf of Mexico. "Forecast models differ on whether the storm ( Hurricane Debby ) will track into the Gulf of Mexico or will turn north toward the Bahamas," according to a report from New York-based IFR Pegasus. The market will continue to keep a close watch on the storm's direction. Its effect on production at Hovensa's St. Croix refinery in the Virgin Islands is minimal, according to Bridge News, and it doesn't appear to be headed for the Gulf of Mexico, a major oil- and natural gas-producing region. However, no one is really sure where Debby will end up, Flynn said. The storm season, coupled with the latest crude supply data, should provide good support for the market on Wednesday, he said. Black Blade: A NG pipeline exploded in New Mexico killing 11. This will cause further disruption of NG supply. Last week analyst were thriving in delight over the 7.6 million barrel rise in inventories. Now this week the surplus is gone and then some. Meanwhile, oil prices are climbing higher tonight on this news. The traders are nervously awaiting the open on US commodities exchanges. Don't worry, it won't show up in the Core rate, so there won't be any inflation. Just ask Larry Kudlow a.k.a. Bozo the Clown! Black Blade (08/22/00; 23:11:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 35357) Larry Kudlow - Bozo the Clown His comment should be: "We can drill through the earth underneath Saudi Arabia, and suck the oil out from under them" Black Blade (08/22/00; 23:09:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 35356) Oil charging ahead - Again. Oil is up $0.88 at $32.10/bbl. We shall see if Larry Kudlow's prediction that oil is unimportant. Of course when the crunch is fully felt, he will likely come up with another stupid remark such as, "we sould drill through the earth under Saudi Arabia and such the oil out from underneath them". I can just imagine this bozo coming up with a statement such as that, especially after hearing his Proza/inflation comment on CNBC. THX-1138 (08/22/00; 23:03:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35355) Quick market changes You want to talk about changes in markets, I just saw one this morning.I left for work at 7:15AM and the store down the street from me was selling gas at $1.29. I get home today at 6:00PM and the price had jumped to $1.40. Now that is a quick moving market. Up 8% in one day. Black Blade (08/22/00; 22:49:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35354) re: MO VER MEG msg. 35305 I really don't go into the stock market a lot here on this forum. However, I am a contrarian investor who looks for the beaten up and maligned industries that always turn around. For this reason, I am currently buying physical gold, silver, Unhedged and Very Profitable miners such as Harmony Gold (HGMCY) and Goldfields (GOLD), a couple of REITS (NXL, and USV), and starting to go into Telecoms again, This time Verizon (VZ). I listened to some analysts on CNBC today just before the FED announced that they were not going to hike rates. Larry Kudlow was one of the panel. Here said that the new economy had made oil a non-issue and that inflation was benign. This of course is stupidity at its finest. Of course his next comment was particularly interesting as he said that inflation was going to fall because the US would have generic Prozac! HUH! I was dumbfounded of course. I guess if the nation was on Prozac, then we probably wouldn't care about inflation, of any else for that matter. As far as energy companies are concerned, you must realize that the run-up is well underway. I bought into my positions when oil was in the low teens per barrel. That said, I would suggest that you do a lot of research on several sites such as Quicken, Zacks, etc. Look over the fundamentals; check out the insider-trading, etc. I am into several companies that I have rolled to where I effectively have a "free-ride". You might be interested to start looking at the following companies to get a feel for the types of energy plays that abound: Amerigas (APU) – propane, Star Gas Partners (SGU) – heating oil, Torch Energy (TRU) – energy trust, Dominion Resources (DOM) – energy trust, Questar (STR) – NG pipeline, storage and exploration, Enron Oil and Gas (EOG) – Oil and NG production and exploration, TransOcean (RIG) – deep water drilling, Nabors Ind. (NBR) – land driller NG, Baker Hughes (BHI), Schumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) – oil services, Input/Output (IO) – seismic software, Core Labs (CORE) – field sevices technolgy (speculative but they squeeze mature fields), Exxon-Mobil (XOM) – big oil (steady earner that hasn't participated in the oil rally), Utilicorp (UCU) and Southern (SO) – utilities, energy marketing, etc. Like I said, do a lot of research as most of these companies have already moved to the upside except the big oils and some energy trusts. But I am mostly continuing to buy into PMs and unhedged miners as they are the most depressed undervalued picks right now. In fact I got a bit of physical Gold last week from some miners who apparently needed beer money. That's OK, I can brew my own beer, but mining Gold is hard work and it can't be brewed ;-) USAGOLD (08/22/00; 21:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35353) Canuck. . . You get into statistical gamesmanship when you start making these type of comparisons -- since there are a variety of factors at play. However, I happened to be talking about this with somebody from the World Gold Council today so it's been on my mind. During Y2K we were running in some months double and triple the same month the previous year. Just about everyone in the industry had similar results. Last July (belying the summer doldrums) was probably one of the biggest months in our history, so you almost have to throw that out. Without actually running the numbers, my guess is we are looking in July and August at about 60% to 70% the average Y2K month, but these are the summer doldrums so we are happy with that. The real test will be when we move into the paper asset hurricane season from mid-September on and the annual assault on investor confidence. Then we will find out if investors takes the oil/inflation Fifth Horseman seriously and in sufficient numbers to make a difference in the gold price. That is perhaps why the two posts tonight by Marketalk are so important. If Rising Oil is going to dig into the consumer pocketbook at that level this winter, it may be the trigger event that will affect all the markets in unforeseen ways, and push up the inflation rate rapidly. An important aside:Speaking about how seriously we should take the Rising Oil Fifth Horseman and inflation, I had the good fortune of having a long talk with the highly respected, long-time Fed Watcher Adrian van Eck today along with Steve Miller over at Smith Barney (Wall Street) in a three way. We had a good time swapping gold war stories and talking the markets. Lots of laughs. Lots of knowledge and understandings shared. Mr. van Eck's grasp of political and economic history is a marvel to experience. He's now talking $40 oil, or more, and a sea change in the world economy. He has given his permission to quote part of his recent study at the Gilded Opinion section and I hope to get the backroom work on that entry done yet this week.In the interim, and because I think it salient to this post, let me just say that he has the Red Flag up -- meaning that there is trouble ahead for the world economy. Those of you who subscribe to his letter, or follow Mr. van Eck through other channels, know that the Red never goes up casually. In fact I think this might be the first time its been up since the late 1970s. The September issue of his newsletter, Money-Forecast Letter, offers what he is calling "an emergency forecast containing our most important message since 1979." I don't think I would be giving anything away by saying he is bullish on gold, though I hope we will be able to give you a more complete look at Mr. van Eck's thinking later in the week, along with some link-up avenues for those who would like to subscribe to what I feel is the best letter on the Fed available.So we will see how all this affects the markets and gold. As it is, I can say that from our point of view, there's something happening out there, but at the moment we do not yet know the depth of it. Let's just call it a Sixth Sense from being in this business for so long. I would also point you back to my report this morning on the worldwide nature of the developing inflation. I feel inflation concerns by investors globally could work out to be the biggest contributor to a strong enough level of demand to move gold off the dime as it was in the 1970s.In the end though, any gold breakout will essentially be a monetary phenomena as my good friend FOA continues to pound home. With the amount of dollars out there growing exponentially over the last decade and incomes and portfolio levels with it, there are more and more dollars chasing pretty much the same nominal level of gold (offered annually). At some point, the supply becomes an endangered species. Something will have to give, and I think that something will be the price. This is what I have called the Free Market Solution in other writings. The key remains the physical, and if we sometimes sound like a broken record around here, its because the conclusion is so evident and so important. Nothing will put the fear of market retribution in a gold short's heart faster than the realization that the phsyical is disappearing into private hands. I believe that's why the financial press works so hard to discourage people from owning gold. Once again, I think FOA hit the nail on the head in his Trail Guide post on palladium. That's what the gold shorts have to look forward to if they persist -- the "Palladium Dilemna" only on a massive scale. SteveH (08/22/00; 21:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 35352) Another Oil then is the ultimate pressure to bring about this change. We see it now. No one believes oil will go higher, yet it is. The higher oil goes the more paper gold is being sold, stories being told of more oil, the higher the dollar goes, and the lower gold falls (paper that is). This sure seems to be the way of it, eh?It is like a slow ship turning. Much as in the movie with a T. At first their is no discernable direction or change made, then slowly until the change is seen. We are in mid-course correction now. Iceberg 10 points off the starboard bow. Ahoy. SteveH (08/22/00; 21:30:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35351) Another In simple terms, the more paper gold, the greater the value of physical gold as there is less to divide into more dollars.This would only manifest itself in a default. Current manipulations are orchestrated currently to prevent this default and that is why the CB's make such stupid and desperate moves like selling half their gold. Simply, it is to prevent the endgame from arriving too soon or to believe that it can be put off while other plans are made.Some suggest that the Euro is that plan. We have countries that are paying down US debt. Are they doing that by borrowing Euros and paying down dollars? So, we are in the midst of the endgame in the goldilocks economy like no one has ever seen before nor can they explain. Seem simple when thought of in these terms. Can't be true if it that simple, eh? SteveH (08/22/00; 21:24:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35350) Another at Kitco http://www.mindspring.com/~samson/another/ eom SteveH (08/22/00; 21:23:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 35349) Another at Kitco www.kitco.com repost of repost:Date: Tue Aug 22 2000 16:581Lawbreaker1 (Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 19:18 ANOTHER ID#60253:) ID#260249:Copyright © 2000 1Lawbreaker1/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedCopyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Mr. Sharfin, I thank you for saving my posts. Now I ask you? Please read these words and consider: " What Is The Real Price Of Gold IN The Central Bank World?" If we look back thru the writings of Another, we find an old post that says something to this effect, "You think I am a fool because I trade gold for thousands US$ an ounce". It was a strange statement, but stranger still that no one asked about this. In the very beginning of these "THOUGHTS", the point was offered that gold had increased "dramatically in value these past few years"! This thinking was offered, even as it's currency price was falling to new many year lows. I ask about it today, especially in light of the post of : "Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 17:11 Aragorn III ( Some thoughts for A.Goose in regard to COMEX and G*O*L*D ) ID#212323" It is indeed, a paper game Mr. Aragorn, but it is a game of "some advantage", if one can see clearly. The one that posts using SDRer, has shown many times how "Gold Value" is used in international trade. What cannot be seen is the value of gold in the "INTERBANK" world. Here is the realm of "true valuations" in paper currency terms. It is a real shocker for lesser eyes. In this modern world, the current value of every asset is formed by a relationship of gold/currencies/oil. This cross relationship is the "very basis of our modern world banking system"! Through this basis, all currencies are given value as the local government treasuries hold US$ as reserves. The US$ is given backing as it's government is guaranteed, that all crude oil, worldwide, will be settled in dollars. An oil reserve backing, if you will. And, the "value" that the "future supply of "currency traded "oil" imparts to the world economy, is guaranteed by an "INTERBANK paper gold MARKET" that values "physical bullion" in the Thousands! I'll let Another explain: But, how can this be, you ask? It is done, "right before your eyes" and we see it not! I ask you, if you have one ounce of gold, and sell it on the market for $300, it is worth $300, yes? Now, what if CB hold one ounce of gold, and sell it twenty times, that one ounce is now worth $6,000, no? The difference between you and CB? The persons that hold "interbank" IOU for gold, value it at the multiple of leases/sales made against reserves. This leverage, it is held for performance on bank part. The BIS, it force performance, on any economy! You ask Korea about gold, yes? This is why oil can take a small amount of physical gold out of world supply, at current "freely traded", "managed prices", and hold it at a many times valuation. That is what gives this "new world gold market" much value in trade at high levels. Look even at your "Comex", and divide the daily volume by the "eligible stocks for delivery". That number ( perhaps three million ounces divided by 150,000 stocks, deliverable, times the spot close gives close, real world price of physical, $6,000. It follows close to paper trade on LBMA. You see, "physical gold is of much greater value than public traders can move it for"! In your world, this cannot be, but it is, and will show for all to see in your time. Gold is now being managed back to the $320 - $360 range. But, this few dollars of value is of little use, as forces are at work that will break $360! The CBs are loosing control. I write again in hour or so. We talk then, please. Thank you SteveH (08/22/00; 21:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35348) Another at Kitco www.kitco.com repost of repost:Date: Tue Aug 22 2000 19:211Lawbreaker1 (Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 20:57 ) ID#260249:Copyright © 2000 1Lawbreaker1/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedsharefin ( How can this be? ) ID#284255: ANOTHER " How can they reprice gold to $30,000? " Mr. Sharfin, This question from you, it proves for my eyes what I have said. Indeed, if I viewed as a western person, gold money as $30,000 paper dollar credits, my thoughts would also show " this cannot be"! But, from another world, I view this US$ and say "how can it be of such value to all and have numbers as the stars in heaven"? Please understand, money as paper or metal is as "perception of value in the minds of people". If all the gold held by earth were placed in the hands as money, it would be used to revalue every "real thing" at a fair price. A tiny fraction of gold would buy much production of goods and services, on a basis equal for all men, not as a debt for later settlement, as currencies are now! Thank you ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 20:42 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253: Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved REPLY: Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 09:58 Allen ( USA ) ( ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ) ID#246224 " So the Euro will be an alternative to this? Its creators must have known that this 'inflation' of the USA and LBMA markets was not liked by oil. When was this recognized? Was this at the time of the Gulf War ( as you have implied in the past ) ? How was it recognized or communicated to Europe? Certainly the Euro has been built with this 'market' in mind? " Allen, The link to my writing was broken during our discussion. Some items were lost. I do now understand your thoughts. I will now reply, "as able, over time". The Gulf War was the last insult! It was viewed as an attempt to show an "unstable area", but the war itself was not intentional, events were "out of control". We must grasp that all commerce is done, at least, in the US dollar concept of "valuations of real things". In this way, " the true value of the purchase of real money" is hidden from view! Persons will say in the future, "how could gold be $500 one day and $5,000 the next"? I tell you now, it is already past that level, as in "present reserve currency dealings" it is not seen! Consider, that in all that you do and think, your "western values" are of paper concepts. From your birth, real things are not used to cross value themselves! When the battle to keep gold from devaluing oil ( in direct gold for oil terms ) is lost, the dollar will find "no problem" with $30,000 gold, as it will be seen as a "benefit for all" and "why did noone see this sooner"? Thank you elevator guy (08/22/00; 20:49:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35347) @Trail Guide Your answer to Leigh is, as always, very enlightening. Thank you for sharing your insights.This whole dollar/gold issue is far bigger and farther reaching than I had ever thought. The big picture is sinking in, and it is at once both frightening, and intriguing.Your answer to Leigh mentions that during the death throws of the dollar, real estate will run as a real wealth asset.Do I understand the term "run" as meaning that it will increase in its relative value? And therefore a good place to store wealth, as is gold? Cavan Man (08/22/00; 20:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 35346) Trail Guide I wish you'd lay off that diet of softballs! Another (no pun) time.......CM SteveH (08/22/00; 20:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35345) Curious how these things come out at a near high price for fuels Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 23 August 2000_________________________________________We knew it before it was news.Europe's Coming Crisishttp://www.stratfor.com/europe/commentary/0008230010.htmChina Declares Temporary Peace with Taiwanhttp://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0008222341.htm_________________________________________Moroccan Desert Oil - Miracle or Mirage?SummaryMoroccan King Mohammed VI announced the discovery of one of thelargest oil fields uncovered in this decade. Estimated to containan equivalent of 20 billion barrels, the find could be worth up to$800 million. Production of the oil deposit could significantlyalter Morocco's agrarian-based economy and foster stronger tieswith developed countries, including Europe and the United States.It may also worsen relations with neighboring Algeria and spark aflurry of prospecting in the region.AnalysisA startling discovery in Morocco's desert could dramatically alterthe North African country's economy. During a speech broadcast onstate radio and television on Aug. 20, King Mohammed VI announcedthe discovery of an oil deposit estimated to contain 20 billionbarrels in crude near the southeastern town of Talsint. Locatedjust 125 miles from the Algerian border, the field could yieldrevenues of up to $800 billion annually.If the government's claims are true, the find could drasticallyimpact Morocco's agrarian-based economy by providing a more stablesource of revenue. At the same time, oil sector developmentrequires investment, usually from multinational oil companies. Thiscould encourage stronger ties between Morocco and industrializedcountries, further boosting the kingdom's economy and sparking anupsurge in oil prospecting throughout the western tip of NorthAfrica. But the deposit's location could also exacerbate tensionswith neighboring Algeria by encouraging exploration along theborder region.The oil find would provide a reliable source of revenue that wouldlessen Rabat's dependence upon agriculture. Agricultural productionemploys more than 50 percent of the population, but accounts foronly 20 percent of Morocco's Gross Domestic Product. The switchwould be a boon for the economy; which regularly suffers productionlosses from drought. In 1997, Morocco's GDP fell from 4.0 percentto -2.3 percent after suffering a protracted drought. Oilproduction would provide a constant and predictable source ofrevenue, even though prices are subject to the whims of the globaloil market.________________________________________________________________Would you like to see full text?http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/082300.ASP Trail Guide (08/22/00; 20:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 35344) comment Cavan Man (08/22/00; 20:18:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 35337)The EuroFrom the 8-21 FT:Unilever 'encourages' Its UK Suppliers To Ivoice In Euros-----Hello Cavan Man,The evolution moves on! (smile)Be back laterTrail Guide 714 (08/22/00; 20:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 35343) Assalamu Alaikum, Trail Guide.... ...yes, there were a few details I left out of the story for brevity's sake (Aramco did contractually revalue gold higher than NY spot). My error, but nonetheless, that was a good deal for the Saudis, who had Aramco "over the barrel" as we say here in the States.Gold does not trade in Euros already? Not in Belgium or Switzerland? What is your take on continuing gold sales by the Swiss and other European CBs? And when might the gold sales cease? Thanks... Trail Guide (08/22/00; 20:36:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35342) Reply ------Leigh (08/22/00; 13:36:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35315)Trail GuideWelcome home, Trail Guide! Would you mind putting some of us out of our misery and answering this question (which is debated often here): Will real estate values go up or down in the hyperinflation ahead? Is this a good time to buy a home or land, or should we wait? Thank you from those of us who are trying to get our portfolios now! ---------Hi Leigh,Thanks to you and everyone that have welcomed a return. Real Estate better keep going up, because I own a fair amount! (smile)Leigh, Many years ago (20+) there was a lot to discussion that a strong inflation would drive rates high enough to kill real estate. Well, it did hurt somewhat, but it certainly didn't kill it. I think,,,,,,that most of that perspective, then was built on our government keeping the dollar strong. In other words, if inflation got out of control, they would do whatever it took to thin out the banking system and save the integrity of the dollar. But, that whole concept was flawed because it was based on the government reacting to a relatively weak price inflation, 10% to 14%,,,,,, but maintaining paper asset growth. In reality, money inflation has taken off even from that day, only it's been manifest in the government considering virtually all paper assets as protect able money. This process has built a huge new money base that is inflating as we speak. Once this money base breaks into a price spiral, our leaders will fall far behind the battle of holding real price inflation at bay. Mostly because it would underscore the use of an alternative, competing currency, the Euro. Any attempt today to stop asset growth, runs headlong into destroying the very new money base the system is built on. Destroy that base and the dollar itself will fall away. The next price inflation spiral will run far, far above anything we have known.Under these conditions, that are more typical of third world systems, real estate will run as a real wealth asset. I'm mostly talking about residential. Thanks Trail Guide Cavan Man (08/22/00; 20:34:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35341) Topaz In the 8-21 edition of the FT, there's an op-ed written by a Patrick Brady titles, "Distribution of wealth gives a clearer picture of Ireland"He claims: "Ireland's economic growth is driven by transitory US investment attracted by zero tax rates, low wages and access to European markets. The profits are repatriated. The downside of the Celtic Tiger is increasing inflation, inequality, crime, racism and the corruption of the political process".He also inveighs against the "crumbling infrastructure" which I believe is pure, unadulterated BS. However, to my US friends, does that last sentence remind you of anyplace in particular? I do believe we have more in common with our brethren from the old continent than we wish to admit. Also, taxation rates are comparable. That is not a judgment ; strictly an observation but I believe it is fact. nummus aureus (08/22/00; 20:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35340) MarkeTalk No need to worry about food prices...It generally freezes and snows here in the midwest during the middle of every harvest. If it doesn't freeze, one breaks expensive parts fighting the mud. Grain and meat prices are at or below the 100 year record. I read where a loaf of bread sells in the store for $2.(We make our own.) That loaf in the store has less than 1 cent of wheat in it. 1 pound of beef (on the hoof) is worth 70 cents. That won't even buy a beer. Because of the drought, this year's harvest will be one of the earliest on record. The crops are drying down fast. I'll be picking corn in a couple of weeks. In 1933 dollars, it's worth 1.5 cents a bushel. In 1933, corn sold for 5 cents a bushel. There's no need to worry about food prices, but if you really want something to worry about, I can loan you some of mine! d:-} Cavan Man (08/22/00; 20:25:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35339) Typing errors Apologies to the Forum.....CM Cavan Man (08/22/00; 20:25:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35338) USAGOLS 35253 MK, you must then object to the dollar for the same fundamental reasons? The Euro does not hail from a pure ideological pedigree and while I do agree with keeping the pressure on the bumbling, socialist bureaucrats over there, I sincerely believe the Euro must be understood in practical context. The Euro will succeed because it must. Likewise, our own dollar is going to be a player IMHO because, it must! Cavan Man (08/22/00; 20:18:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 35337) The Euro From the 8-21 FT:Unilever 'encourages' Its UK Suppliers To Ivoice In Euros.....20% of its purchasing in the UK is priced in Euros....Unilever has moved this year to using the Euro for interfnal accounting and external reporting...If thier cost bases are the same, companies are better able to compete with one another....The news is another example of "Euro creep", the slow adoption of the Euro as a parallel currency in Britain, following Toyota's announcement this monththat some of its British suppliers would be asked to bid for contracts in Euros.According to Niall Fitzgerald, Unilever Chairman: "already food exporters to the EU have lost orders, revenue and bargaining power because of the fluctuations between the pound and the Euro".CM comment: Corporate nation states will (help) make it so. The Euro is oversold as is gold. Trail Guide (08/22/00; 20:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35336) Reply Hello 714:From your post:714 (08/22/00; 12:17:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35309)Questions for FOA/AnotherUnder the concession agreement of 1933, Aramco was paying Ibn Saud in gold. But during WWII, the price of gold became distorted, with an official rate being posted in NY and another rate, double that of NY's, posted in Jidda. The Saudis apparently demanded payment at one point at the Jidda rate. Aramco felt it was not possible for them to meet Saudi conditions and even diplomatic intervention failed to resolve the dispute. Ultimately, it was settled by having Aramco build a $70 million railroad between Riyadh and Dammam.--------HA, HA! Well 714, there were/are a lot of versions to that story. But it does point out how far we have traveled from grasping what money really is. Our official money teachers try to separate the currency / money concept in order to make an inferior money (currency) worth more against competing wealth money. Usually one is taught to think of money as something you buy wealth with when in fact all the wealth you own is money. Not just your "bank account" against "everything else we own". That nice new railroad was wealth money and used as such. Yet it's never worded that way in Western views. Like this: "Well Jim, I just used my house to buy $200,000 bucks. Boy, there must be some kind of real wealth DEFLATION going on because my house money sure is buying a lot more cash these days!" That works for your mind, no?Truly 714, no form of money (all wealth money) needs an established exchange to be used in daily life. Lock up a herd of 10,000 people in the state of Kansas for a year without currency,,,,,,,,, in no time at all every one of those 10,000 humans would know the value of every tradable item. Yes, there would be a few taken by the quick learner/ trader types. But, trading wealth money is a fast study for most. Believe it!Think about it: None of us know what our pocket currency is worth except by association. Give a Canadian 100,000 Marks and send him to Germany for a month. Trust me he will know value association in no time. As for our group in Kansas, if there happens to be a little gold floating around in their wealth pool, that metal will quickly evolve to become the leading wealth item for trade. And all of this would happen without any formal exchange.I think most hard money advocates have conditioned their thought process too much. A little time away from the trading screen and into the real world where fresh air clears the mind would do them good. There is a whole planet of people out there that can use currency right along side all their other wealth to trade anything. Old Ibn Saud was one of them.Your post:---This episode brings to mind Another's assertion that gold would be traded at an artificially low "official" price at the LBMA (and NY), while physical bullion would unofficially be traded off-market at a much higher price. My question is this: WHERE will physical gold trade at higher prices than those officially and imposed prices? In London? In Jidda? In NY? And my second question is: In a capped market, such as we've seen in Tokyo with palladium, where would a bullion holder go to get higher prices? All the way to Jidda?-------Why hell, if one had a camera he could take a picture of it being traded on the sidewalk, just outside the COMEX! (smile) Wouldn't happen, you say?Like this:About ten years ago,,, in south Florida and on Kauai (Hawaii),,,,,, a hurricane blew the daylights out of everything,,,,,,,, especially electricity! A person could have gone into any nearby Home Depot, Wall Mart or Mom and Pop store and see signs for generators. Say, $800 each. The trouble was none were available on these "Official Exchanges". Yes you could buy all the order papers (futures contracts) you wanted, but physical settlement was dearly in question,,,,,,,,, soooooo,,,,,,, the amount of deposit cash placed against these orders became less and less. Eventually, these contracts for future supply became less and less wanted and even there "tradable value" fell dramatically as players fled the market! But,,,,,, these "official exchanges" still kept the doors open and offered the generators for sale at even higher prices. But,,,,,, just around the corner (in Georgia) and across the water (on OAHU),,,,,, in back alleys,,,,, one could trade for these generators on a "physical market" that was sucking all supply away from the exchange stores,,,, at perhaps ten times the official rate! And the good part about it was: "they didn't have to go to Jidda!"(smile)714, a market will open in Europe, in Euros.ThanksTrail Guide Canuck (08/22/00; 19:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 35335) @ M.K. Mr. Kosares,From your post earlier today,"The strong dollar and aggressiveshort selling have combined to keep goldin check over the past few months.However,if the level of real gold buyingat USAGOLD/ Centennial Precious Metals isindicative (and from reports beingpublished from around the globe, it is),at some point, we could have happen in thegold market what has already happened inpalladium -- chaotic conditions where theprice in a short period goes to multiplesits starting point. "Without asking a question that is too awkward, is there any way you can give us an idea how much demand exists?Perhaps as a level of percentage, are sales lower than pre-Y2K? Asking volumes is obviously too forward a question but maybe you can give us an indication of demand in terms of percentage relative to a time frame. Is this a fair question?TIA,Canuck. Cavan Man (08/22/00; 18:55:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35334) Trail Guide Granted, the ME can pump as much oil at $10 or $50. However, what about the rebound in Asia after 1998. Would consumption and limited refining capacity have anything at all to do with higher prices? If you'll allow me; I am holding your feet to the fire having travelled all day, asked some good questions and am looking for your responses (as your time allows).Thanks in advance. No malice intended. Being patient...CM 714 (08/22/00; 18:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 35333) beesting re: 35325 http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_gold.htm "So, the contracts for hedged Gold are keeping LBMA and COMEX "alive", but as we have seen less and less "contract" Gold is traded every month.The amount of paper contracts have successfully given the illusion to the masses that "WHOLESALE"(SPOT) Gold is plentiful."Another once posted at Kitco that trading volumes would have to rise to keep the paper market going, but in fact, as you point out, we are seeing a steady decline in the volume at LBMA (see link above). I am confident there is no wholesale shortage as it would show in the retail market. My local bullion dealer has NO problem getting any quantity of gold. Even before Y2K, there was no problem obtaining physical, as he told me a story of a customer coming in and buying $50,000 worth in one shot. Dana had the gold the next day. Of course, that is not to say that all that gold supply might not dry up in some kind of a crisis. I attribute the supply puzzle in part to the fact that 40% of the above ground supply of gold has been mined in the last 20 years. That's a lot of gold!!! Trail Guide (08/22/00; 18:32:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35332) oil http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/crude.htx?source=htx/http2_mw MarkeTalk (08/22/00; 16:34:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35323)Heating Oil and Natural Gas Prices to SkyrocketHello Market Talk:I know you are part of USAGOLD but have misplaced your name from Michael's post. Something has definitely changed in world oil supply!(smile) Can you remember back just a year or so ago, how everyone thought OPEC was finished? Even further back I remember people asking how in the world any of the OPEC group could ever find the money to buy gold. Much less eventually move the markets! If I remember correctly, you are more of a fundamental thinker. Tell me, how could oil be worth $10 one day and now $30+? Was long term supply and demand so completely misunderstood? Perhaps our current world dollar dilution has become so powerful as to override our political ability to manage it's oil purchasing ability. Truly there is a lot more at stake here than a coming bull market in gold!Here is a clip from the above link:NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- October crude futures rallied to more than $32 a barrel in overnight Tuesday trading after a key report said crude inventories as of the week ended Aug. 18 plunged 7.8 million barrels -- a dramatic turnabout from the forecast rise of at least 300,000 barrels. "Forget everything else -- we're back to record-low stocks again," Phil Flynn, a senior energy analyst at Chicago brokerage house Alaron.com, exclaimed just after the data was released. He also said the latest data was a "shocker" and will have "explosive" effects. In after-hours Access trading, October crude oil added 84 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $32.06 a barrel. After the markets closed, the American Petroleum Institute said crude stocks, as of the week ended Aug. 18, dropped a whopping 7.8 million barrels to total 279.7 million barrels.Thanks Trail Guide Leigh (08/22/00; 18:31:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35331) beesting Beesting, THANK YOU for giving us this information! I'm so glad to know that Congress has done something right. beesting (08/22/00; 18:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35330) Correct URL. http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press2000/pr082300.htm Try this URL on my last "Happy" message!...beesting. beesting (08/22/00; 18:22:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 35329) Know Your Customer Banking Rules. http://cgi.mailstart.com/scripts/link.dll/ms.clsmain.aa?ses=43523229&x=vzrqmoqaswacztkyqqqx&r=589&ac=rd&ms=1 H.R. 3886 was declared virtually dead this week by the U.S. Congress...3 cheers for the U.S. Congress...Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray!....beesting. schippi (08/22/00; 18:15:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35328) POG, Wavelet,... all pointing Up All my charts indicate that we are at a critical point in the Gold market. The bottom line to thousands of lines of code, is that we have a good chance to break to the Upside. CoBra(too) (08/22/00; 17:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 35327) Re: A debate about James Dines - on GE Since I only post here or at the cafe, I read some and came to respect posters on other (sister) fora. One of them is Richard 640 - BTW great handle -, who debates James Dines and his JDL, becoming to diverse too digest, I've got to say there is an original goldbug from way back, giving up his Wall Street carreer and going out West, just because of his strong beliefs in real money. I've personally had the opportunity to dine with Dines and his beliefs are still the same - and I can assure youJim is a proven supporter of thee gold case - garnered with great golden blondes - see ya there too - cb2 MK-forgive my crossborder post - time to unite the gold bugs? wolavka (08/22/00; 17:25:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35326) Tonite maybe the nite Globex, you may wake up to find much higher gold prices. 284 in dec gold is breakout.Hold the line of support @ 277.40 magic # but could grab stops down to 276, I'll buy more, oil will go crazy soon. beesting (08/22/00; 17:02:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35325) 714 # 35311 714's Question:<<In a capped market, such as we've seen in Tokyo with palladium, where would a bullion holder,especially one living in the West, go to get higher prices? All the way to Jidda?>>My take is:Free Gold means unencumbered Gold!Hedged Gold is unmined Gold already promised into the future!So, the contracts for hedged Gold are keeping LBMA and COMEX "alive", but as we have seen less and less "contract" Gold is traded every month.The amount of paper contracts have successfully given the illusion to the masses that "WHOLESALE"(SPOT) Gold is plentiful. IMHO when the supply of "Free Gold" becomes so tight that the big buyers are having trouble obtaining it, signs of a shortage will show themselves to everyone, including USAGOLD and local coin dealers.The unhedged mines will sell "Free Gold" on hand to the highest bidder, as will you and I, if at some point we decide to sell.The "Free Gold"Market you are talking about, has not formed yet, because currently demand has not reached the critical level, but once the "Free Gold" demand reaches critical level I really don't think selling will be a problem, but buying may be.Remember the Gold "Blast Off" of the 1970's lasted almost 10 years, with much buying and selling activity happening every where in the world.Just some thoughts on the subject.....beesting. CoBra(too) (08/22/00; 16:56:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35324) Headlines Bloomberg - interconnected? FED leaves rates unchanged ...Al Gore enjoys support ...US Bank shares rise (wolavka may say scheiss!) ... and I may take the liberty to agree - to wolavka to be sure. Happy to see so many new (or is it fugitives from other fora) handles or posters here I just would like to stress the fact by re-reading only two days on this forum the posts of our esteemed knights TG and Ari, you've learned more about real money - even if I'm a hard die gold mining investor and advocate and still am - as long as you know what you're doing - than Harvard, Eton or any other such place. And what's more, IMHO, the timing is here for all to see! Thank you TG for sharing and thank you Ari, a knight of style for wise education. Most appreciated too - cb2 MarkeTalk (08/22/00; 16:34:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35323) Heating Oil and Natural Gas Prices to Skyrocket Another Reuters article appeared earlier in the day and it is a shocker--especially for all of our East Coast clients who depend on heating oil. Dave Costello of the Energy Information Administration in Washington said "he expected residential gas prices this winter (from October to March) to average a record $7.90 per thousand cubic feet, up by nearly 20 percent from last year's $6.61 average." Furthermore, the Department of Energy's research arm last week said home heating oil prices could spike as much as 40 to 50 percent this winter! WOW!! And my Midwest clients tell me that the birds have already left due to cold nights in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. This coming winter is expected to be especially cold and it will arrive early. Can you imagine what a freeze in the soybean and corn belts would do to food prices? Snow during the middle of harvest? It is not far-fetched at all.The handwriting is on the wall. Inflation with a capital "I" is back with a vengeance. No phoney PPI or CPI numbers will be able to keep this monster at bay. Gold is not far behind oil prices, as the gold/oil ratio and gold/Dow Jones ratio will come back to historical norms. MarkeTalk (08/22/00; 16:19:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 35322) Oil. . . Just came over Reuters:"U.S. oil inventories fell sharply last week according to the American Petroleum Institute dashing traders' expectations and sending another wave of fear though an already fragile market. . ."The report issued after a delay has crude stocks down 7.78 million barrels. Oil up 65¢ on Acess. . .Gold up 40¢ beesting (08/22/00; 16:13:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35321) Interest Rates! http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000822/n22605518.html Interest Rate Unchanged at 6.50%...beesting. wolavka (08/22/00; 15:40:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35320) tonite-tomorrow Will be up day for gold, how far , hard to tell. Broken Tee (08/22/00; 15:27:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35319) Fed????? I've been stuck behind a desk all day. Did the Fed do anything today???? Bobbo (08/22/00; 14:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 35318) Good XAU close.... The bullish divergence with XAU closing within a penny of yesterdays close and the POG down over $1 has me anticipating a good move to the upside, and soon. It may start tomorrow. XAU has held major support in 50.25-.50 area and closed right on the 51.10 mark which I have indicated will be indicative of good upmove if it held (on a closing basis it has, thus far at least). Today's XAU low of 50.62 may be the low for awhile.In light of the stronger USD again, gaining day by day, and the give back of the CRB gains of yesterday the drop in POG has been relatively well contained (major support still holding). The expected continued POG weakness may have come to an end. POO has stengthened (with help from the hurricane shut-down of St Croix refinery) recently and with no Fed move, INFLATION will soon be the big eco news item. Add to those factors the upcoming fall season of international hot spots and you have a very bullish scenario for POG. Don't forget those AU and XAU short overhang and voila...GOT GOLD.....Hmmmmm....GO GOLD Bobbo (08/22/00; 14:14:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 35317) Great close on XAU The bullish divergence with XAU closing within a penny of yesterdays close and the POG down over $1 has me anticipating a good move to the upside, and soon. It may start tomorrow. XAU has held major support in 50.25-.50 area and closed right on the 51.10 mark which I have indicated will be indicative of good upmove if it held (on a closing basis it has, thus far at least). Today's XAU low of 50.62 may be the low for awhile.In light of the stronger USD again, gaining day by day, and the give back of the CRB gains of yesterday the drop in POG has been relatively well contained (major support still holding). The expected continued POG weakness may have come to an end. POO has stengthened (with help from the hurricane shut-down of St Croix refinery) recently and with no Fed move, INFLATION will soon be the big eco news item. Add to those factors the upcoming fall season of international hot spots and you have a very bullish scenario for POG. Don't forget those AU and XAU short overhang and voila...GOT GOLD.....Hmmmmm....GO GOLD Leigh (08/22/00; 13:41:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35316) Whoops, that's portfolios ready now.... That's what happens when you try to do three things at once. Leigh (08/22/00; 13:36:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35315) Trail Guide Welcome home, Trail Guide! Would you mind putting some of us out of our misery and answering this question (which is debated often here): Will real estate values go up or down in the hyperinflation ahead? Is this a good time to buy a home or land, or should we wait? Thank you from those of us who are trying to get our portfolios now! 714 (08/22/00; 13:17:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35314) Oops, let's try linking them here: http://www.mindspring.com/~samson/another/ Does this work? 714 (08/22/00; 13:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35313) The Words of Another... ...and his posts from Kitco. http://www.mindspring.com/~samson/another/I saved these pages and am currently editing them as Mr. Wheeler missed a few posts. An interesting read nonetheless (and good reference material). At some point (God only knows), I'll post the revised pages on one of my websites. wolavka (08/22/00; 12:54:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35312) swiss franc close here @ 5770-80 would give some strength and could drop dollar, gold needs the funny money to fall. (u s $ ) 714 (08/22/00; 12:42:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 35311) clarification I don't mean to imply that gold prices in Jidda are in any way unofficial. My impression is that Arabians are every bit as official as the English and Americans. So let me rephrase the questions:Where will gold trade at higher rates than those that might be artificially imposed on Western markets, like the LMBA and Comex?In a capped market, such as we've seen in Tokyo with palladium, where would a bullion holder, especially one living in the West, go to get higher prices? All the way to Jidda?Thank you. Gandalf the White (08/22/00; 12:23:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 35310) 2:15 NY Time ! What HAPPENED ?Did AG surprise someone ?News please !<;-)BTW 714 -- Great questions! 714 (08/22/00; 12:17:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35309) Questions for FOA/Another Under the concession agreement of 1933, Aramco was paying Ibn Saud in gold. But during WWII, the price of gold became distorted, with an official rate being posted in NY and another rate, double that of NY's, posted in Jidda. The Saudis apparently demanded payment at one point at the Jidda rate. Aramco felt it was not possible for them to meet Saudi conditions and even diplomatic intervention failed to resolve the dispute. Ultimately, it was settled by having Aramco build a $70 million railroad between Riyadh and Dammam.This episode brings to mind Another's assertion that gold would be traded at an artificially low "official" price at the LBMA (and NY), while physical bullion would unoficially be traded off-market at a much higher price.My question is this: WHERE will physical gold trade at higher prices than those officially and imposed prices? In London? In Jidda? In NY? And my second question is: In a capped market, such as we've seen in Tokyo with palladium, where would a bullion holder go to get higher prices? All the way to Jidda? wolavka (08/22/00; 11:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35308) aph over on kitco Is correct on low risk trade on swiss franc @ 5750 today. Golden Truth (08/22/00; 11:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35307) Whats New? Oil,Gold,Silver and Platinum are all selling off? Yet the good news for the XAU is "COPPER" is up! Got Copper? :-( G.T Bobbo (08/22/00; 10:06:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 35306) Bullish Divergence Again??? Like yesterday, there is a bullish divergence between the XAU (up .16) and the POG (down 1.2 spot). My post yesterday goes double today. I am getting more bullish short term. We tested POG daily low and have spiked up .8 off the low even as I write this. All the while the XAU put in an early low shortly after the open and we have been positive since the first 10 min of trading (XAU). The 51.10 area has thus far held and with oversold conditions abounding I think we may be in the early stage of a trading scalp (at least). GOT GOLD...Go Gold!!! MO VER MEG (08/22/00; 10:00:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 35305) Black Blade Black Blade,I am interested in your messages on energy. I am wondering (if you do not mind the inquiry) what companies you find worth buying today? Thanks, MO VER MEG wolavka (08/22/00; 09:53:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35304) hitting support t T L now watch dec gold now. USAGOLD (08/22/00; 09:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35303) Gold Doldrums Almost Over? http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html DAILY COMMENTARY (8/22/00) www.USAGOLD.com . . . Gold was down a second straight day as the shorts beat back a short covering rally that started in Asia overnight. The covering was coming from European sources according to this morning's Bridge News Asian report. But Dow Jones reports "gold futures coming under more pressure from fund selling on the [New York] open, triggering sell-stops, or pre-placed sell orders." Both the euro and yen were again being pummeled by the dollar in advance of what is expected to be a largely benign conclusion to today's Fed Open Market Committee meeting. The strong dollar and aggressive short selling have combined to keep gold in check over the past few months. However,if the level of real gold buying at USAGOLD/ Centennial Precious Metals is indicative (and from reports being published from around the globe, it is), at some point, we could have happen in the gold market what has already happened in palladium -- chaotic conditions where the price in a short period goes to multiples its starting point. If there is an artificially maintained price for gold, as many claim, than it will only create substantial demand that will dry up sources. This is the free market solution to the gold situation. There are only so many Chiles (which sold off most of its gold reserve in June) remaining to be tapped and too few mining companies that can survive and produce as the price ratchets down further. At some points, shorts and the dollar (for reasons of its own) hit the wall. On the other side of the coin, it is unlikely that gold demand will lessen for some time to come. That demand, we believe, will be led by Asians already burned during the Asian contagion who fully understand the real value of gold. They are joined by prudent Americans and Europeans who see recent developments with respect to oil prices and incipient inflation as a good reason to hedge their portfolios with yellow metal. In that regard, the one aspect of the financial news that has not been commented upon in recent weeks is the depreciation of paper money against real goods almost everywhere in world. Inflation is becoming an international phenomena -- and something to be watched closely. The lesson of international inflation is my first from watching our international news feed as it scrolls to your immediate left. It is this type of service (USAGOLD Live News, as well as others) that will not only change the way people (investors) internalize the news, it will change the way people view the world and form their opinions about which direction events are taking us and how they act. Now the news is available from a multitude of sources and international in scope. For better or worse, the real picture will emerge for those who wish to see it........ and quickly, I might add. In the case of international inflation, we have watched the various nations of the world jockey to keep their currencies cheaper than the dollar in order to boost exports and help their domestic economies. (In the United States this has created a record trade deficit in the first six months of this year, 53% higher than the same period last year.) In turn, this has given license to the Fed to sponsor the greatest monetary inflation of the dollar in history seemingly without fear of reprisal. The net result has been a depreciation of all currencies against real goods in nearly all countries. How long until that depreciation is registered against the ultimate real good -- gold? This will be our last report for this week as it is time to start working on the next edition of News & Views. We'll se you back here early next week, my fellow goldmeisters. If you are looking for a source of news, commentary and analysis on gold and all that affects it, we invite you try a free trial subscription to our widely read monthly newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. We offer solid commentary in a rapid fire, no-nonsense, bullet format designed for busy people who want gold related news and opinion without the unnecessary fluff. Please call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 or click here to request News & Views as well as our helpful introductory information packet for gold investors. We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public. PLEASE REMEMBER: It is your purchase of gold from Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages. Call us at 1-800-869-5115 for prices and to have your questions answered. Black Blade (08/22/00; 07:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35302) Buffett and silver. Probably buying IMO Buffett speculation leads nowhere By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.comLast Update: 5:03 AM ET Aug 22, 2000 NewsWatchLatest headlinesLONDON (FTMW) -- In the wake of ridiculous London talk that Wal-Mart is planning a $9 billion bid for the U.K.'s largest drugstore chain, Boots, comes more idle speculation: that famed investor Warren Buffett is busy buying pieces of London-listed technology companies.Buffett, whose investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA: news, msgs) (BRKB: news, msgs) favors conservative stakes in insurers, food companies and silver, is said this week to be liquidating his silver positions. The speculation is little more than idle summertime gossip. Still, the price of silver is sinking like a ship in London and New York, where futures contracts trade. Buffett used Berkshire Hathaway to buy silver in a big way in 1998. The price of the metal is now about $4.80 an ounce -- which is still above the price that Buffett paid.Buffett comments about his investments once a year, in his annual report to investors. Securities and Exchange Commission filings show his recent purchases have included stock in newspaper company and USA Today owner Gannett (GCI: news, msgs), which is poised to become England's largest regional publisher through its Newsquest unit. Buffett invested in 17 companies worth $28.5 billion in this year's second quarter. He owns shares in casualty insurance companies, electricity suppliers, clothing companies, Walt Disney, building materials manufacturer Justin Industries and an executive jet leasing service. http://www.bigcharts.com/http://www.bigcharts.com/There's little hope he'll shed light on the silver speculation. The precious metals talk leads to more talk that Buffett is amassing stakes in London technology companies such as Bookham (BKHM: news, msgs) Technology PLC. Bookham, a developer of circuits for the fiber-optic industry, is seen as a takeover target by Nortel Networks, Canada's largest company by stock market value. Bookham has a market capitalization of about $6.7 billion, and by Buffett's standards, isn't cheap as a multiple of sales. The company's shares trade in London and on Nasdaq.Sprinkle, sprinkle, little starSome say Buffett must sprinkle some new-age technology companies onto his Berkshire Hathaway portfolios if he is to attract a new legion of shareholders. Why not European ones, which tend to sell for far less than their American counterparts?This is a bunch of poppycock. For one, Berkshire Hathaway's investment style, which was under attack at the start of this year, has thrived in this year's worldwide tech tumble. (See chart above). A 45 percent investment gain helped boost his company's second-quarter net earnings by 12 percent.http://www.bigcharts.com/http://www.bigcharts.com/True, Berkshire Hathaway's thinly traded shares -- both the A and B classes -- are about 25 percent below their mid-1998 highs. Hey, that's far better than being down 50 percent, or 70 percent -- which is where many technology companies are these days.If 69-year-old Buffett is seeking technology companies, most professional observers of the legendary investor would bet their last dollar it would be a company with a truckload of patents, a global following, seasoned managers and a stock price that has been stuck in the dirt for years. Like telecom company AT&T Corp. (T: news, msgs), its shares not far from a three-year low.Buffett, known as the oracle of Omaha, has plenty from which to choose in the battered world of technology and telecom companies. As for metals, if he stays true to form, Buffett could be buying more silver at these prices, not selling the stuff. For all we know, this American billionaire and his Berskhire Hathaway portfolio managers probably are. Henri (08/22/00; 07:07:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35301) Link to Chinese sales, Kalashnikov's for Ivory http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/082200.ASP Yes the chinese always did have a thing for ivory. Just business, nothing personal. Henri (08/22/00; 07:04:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35300) Oil for weapons...now there's a useful commodity http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2569088528-61b The article at the link above cites Saudi Arabia as the largest importer of arms with twice the volume of the second leading importer, China. The US is cited the largest exporter. Is it too much of a stretch to to make the link that petro dollars are being exchanged for arms? While something with value (at least from the Saudi perspective) can be acquired with US dollars, the desire for the shiny stuff may be put on the back burner. After all once you have all the gold you need to be able to fend off those who would just come in and take it away from you. So with a knowledge that their oil is not as easy to abscond with (witness the attempt of sodaminsane and his Kuwaiti adventure), as gold would be, and knowing oil is not an inexhaustible commodity, it makes sense for the near term what with the noise up north to acquire the means of self sufficient defense. Once that is accomplished the pursuit of real business (accumulation of real wealth in exchange for oil) can resume.In an interesting aside, the politicos are spotlighting chinese sales trips of minor significance to sub-saharan Africa. No doubt the next new customers for the US war supply venders.Don't get me wrong, I do not condone any of this activity personally, I'm merely in touch with observable reality that thinks he can reads through some of the the BS put out by propaganda machines. I will post the link to the chinese sales shortly. Black Blade (08/22/00; 06:28:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35299) Russian PGMs The Russians continue to spout that deliveries are being made. Yeah - "Wolf!". The only problem is, what little that is produced, is transported by Submarine! OOPS! Black Blade (08/22/00; 06:23:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 35298) "Morning Wakeup Call!" FOMC meeting today, and Petroleum still exploding higher! Sources: Economic Times (India) and BridgeNews THE EASTERN FRONT:Asia Precious Metals Review: Spot gold rises in late trade Tokyo--Aug. 22--Spot gold rose late in Asian trading Tuesday due to short-covering from European sources and physical demand from Asia-based players, dealers said. Spot gold is expected to move within a narrow band of U.S. $274 and $278 in the near term. Trading of platinum and palladium remained sluggish in the Asian over-the-counter (OTC) market, while trading interest concentrated on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange platinum and palladium futures, they said. (Story .2200)Black Blade: Yawn. Children's roller coaster ride - not very exciting.TIS THE GOLDEN SEASON IN INDIA:Gold glitters as demand perks up, Our Bureau/Agencies, MUMBAI GOLD attracted fresh festive demand and recovered smartly even as silver closed with handsome gains on the bullion market here on Monday. Even though prices showed weak trend in the international markets, precious metals were higher on the local market due to fresh festive buying, dealers said. Standard gold started on a steady note at Rs 4,540 per 10 gm, but gradually edged up further to close at Rs 4,560, up Rs 20 over the last close of Rs 4540. Gold 22-carat was also quoted higher at Rs 4,220 as against the previous close of Rs 4,200. Ten-tola gold bar hardened by Rs 150 to Rs 53,350 from Rs 53,200. Ready silver rose further to end at Rs 8,000 a kg, showing a fresh rise of Rs 25 over the previous close of Rs 7,975. Tenderable silver also rose by a similar margin to Rs 8,005 from Rs 7880, while raw silver firmed up by Rs 15 to Rs 7,875 from Rs 7,860.Black Blade: Gold demand should perk up for at least the next couple of months. Harvest and marriage season will draw on Gold supplies. A maiden without a gold dowry? Not likely!THE RUSSIAN FRONT:Russia's Norilsk long-term PGM supplies to Japan seen Sept-Oct Moscow--Aug. 21--Norilsk Nickel, Russia's major platinum group metals (PGM) producer, is likely to start PGM supplies to Japanese clients under a long-term contract in September-October, Norilsk Chairman Yury Kotlyar said Monday. He confirmed that spot sales to the world market had been made by Norilsk regularly since March, when the annual import quota was received. (Story .16469)Black Blade: Yeah, right. "Wolf!"THE WESTERN FRONT:Canada June gold production down 3.14% from a year ago Toronto--Aug. 21--Canada's June 2000 total gold production fell 3.14% from June 1999, but rose 3.08% from May 2000, Natural Resources Canada said on Aug. 18. Canada's total primary silver production was down 22.54% in June 2000 from a month earlier to 70,669 million ounces, and fell 26.64% from June 1999. (Story .2176)Black Blade: You can only high-grade your deposits for so long before you have you work on the marginal ore. Result, lower production along with higher costs. Expect this trend to continue worldwide. When the hedged positions are filled, then what? Lower realized income, and low futures prices, many mine closures and counter parties(bullion Banks) holding the (empty) bag! Then the really extremely painful short squeeze begins.Meanwhile, S&P Futures up +1.70, Fair Value +3.07, slightly positive. The markets await direction upon the announcement on interest rates today following the FOMC meeting. Rates are expected to be unchanged, however, many await to hear the FED bias. Au is off $1.20 at $273.30, Ag down -$0.03 at $4.80, Pt up +$2.00 at $572.00 ($573.00 London AM), and Pd off -$5.00 at $735.00 ($745.00 London AM). Au and Ag are looking especially attractive at these prices. Oil is up +$0.18 at $32.65/bbl after closing in on $32.99/bbl yesterday. NG hit record highs at $4.95 and settled down at $4.725 after industry spokesmen yesterday said that NG supplies are in short supply and a normal winter will cause a sharp price spike. Don't worry though, any price increases don't show up in the core rate, so no inflation ;-) Knallgold (08/22/00; 06:17:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 35297) TG projectios POG 30'000$ versus 3000-6000euros.Trail Guide just said the the Dollar will lose 90% of its value.A lot food for thinking,vast implications.Your paper holdings have to advance 1000% just to break even! Hill Billy Mitchell (08/22/00; 05:26:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 35296) Correction of official release plus 10 yr vs 30 yr spread http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H15/update/ Official: Federal Reserve Statistical ReleaseRelease Date: August 21, 2000Rates for Monday thru Friday, August 14, 15, 16, 17, 18Federal funds 6.58, 6.63, 6.48, 6.47, 6.44Treasury constant maturities:3-month 6.27, 6.28, 6.27, 6.27, 6.2710-year 5.78, 5.81, 5.83, 5.81, 5.7820-year 6.00, 6.02, 6.05, 6.02, 6.0030-year 5.70, 5.72, 5.73, 5.72, 5.69Spread - FF vs long bond:(0.88%), (0.91%), (0.75%), (0.75%), (0.75%)Spread - 10 yr vs 30 yr:(0.08%), (0.09%), (0.10%), (0.09%), (0.09%) Hill Billy Mitchell (08/22/00; 05:13:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35295) Official release http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H15/update/ Official: Federal Reserve Statistical ReleaseRelease Date: August 21, 2000Rates for Monday thru Friday, August 14, 15, 16, 17, 18Federal funds 6.58, 6.63, 6.48, 6.47, 6.44Treasury constant maturities:3-month 6.27, 6.28, 6.27, 6.27, 6.2710-year 5.78, 5.81, 5.83, 5.81, 5.7120-year 6.00, 6.02, 6.05, 6.02, 6.0030-year 5.70, 5.72, 5.73, 5.72, 5.69upside-down spread FF vs long bond:(0.88%), (0.91%), (0.75%), (0.75%), (0.75%) wolavka (08/22/00; 04:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 35294) dec gold Bought in @ 277.40 Watch this support area, Black Blade (08/22/00; 04:28:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35293) re: Canuck msg. 35214 http://www.futuresmag.com/weeklycolumnist/July/july10.html Interesting article ("OPEC, The Stockmarket and Presidential Election"), just a couple of minor points that the author got wrong though. Richard Nixon was NOT impeached, though he would likely have been had he not resigned. Billy Clinton WAS impeached, though not convicted by the senate. But then, this fellow probably went through the US public re-education camps that we call public schools and simply doesn't know any better (Social Promotion?). Otherwise, I have to admit, Oil and the economy are going to play a big role as this campaign season progresses. The only question is which Judas will beguile and lead the Sheeple to the slaughter with sweet lies and empty promises. At least the FED is not likely to rock the boat ahead of the election, and OPEC just might. remember, George W. is the son of the Savior of Kuwait and Saudi and there could be a favor to repay in there somewhere. Just a thought. Cheers! Al Fulchino (08/22/00; 04:12:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35292) Go Rudy! Then buy some gold Time for some Survivor talk. Surely, you know the story by now. In what has, in my view, been one of televisions finest moments, Survivor has captured so many elements of real life. It to me, is as much a metaphor for real life as can also be said of football,most other sports and business activity.We are down to four and without getting into any more past history, lets put out some odds out for you betting people. If it ends up Rudy vs Rich, give Rudy the 65/35% edge. There will always be some empathy for the food provider and appreciation of his food gathering ability, but resentment over his manipulations,connivings and oh yes, his naked body will swing it over to the former navy seal, who while he has not endeared himself to anyone on the island, is still NOT Rich. Also he may have the war veteran, old timer who doesn't have much time to spend it anyway vote going for him.Kelli vs Sue. Give this one to Sue. Odds are 85/15%. Kelli has played too many sides and has no sympathy votes i.e. no children, nor an ailing parent. She is still young and I don't see any reason the council will see it her way. On the other hand, while Sue has not exactly endeared herself to anyone, and she DOES give up her chance just for that reason. Neither woman is very pretty so there is no weak male vote in this picture. Unless of course there is something that happenned that we do not know about. <Children cover your eyes>. But, for Sue's chances. Largely she is NOT Kelli. Secondly, she is a female truck driver, who obviously could use the money. She has what appears to be a loving husband, even though he appears to like food and his couch...just kidding folks, lighten up <smile>. She knows the importance of money and has been forward about it.Kelli vs Rudy. Hmmm...some may have fallen for her "attempts" to be seeen as a friend of all, but not too likely. As much as I would not want to see her win, I give her a 60/40% over Rudy. It would be tough for me to swallow. Ugh!Rudy vs Sue. Toss-up? Close. 55/45% in favor of Sue for all the above reasons, except this. The voters will remember that Rudy partially hid behind Rich. And that leads me to the final possibilities of Rich versus either of the ladies. The odds. 100% ladies. Simply they are NOT Rich. If I have to tell you why, you do not understand life.<smile>. Oh, the things I could write. Ok. I will write some. Manipulator, conniver, teaser, tempter, provider of food only as bait for the human fish. What else? Oh, arrogant, selfish, double talker. Enough? Thought so.Simple. Go Rudy....oh and thanks for putting your life on the line for our country. And send Rich a Christmas card every year. And send the rest a ten thousand tax free gift transfer, just this year.<smile> schippi (08/22/00; 03:01:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35291) POG Chart Delta.au ( Schippi ) ID#266185: Interested to know whether your 5 day POG forecast correctly picks POG direction for the week more than 50% of the time......what's the track record? The POG Chart is a work in progress. It has some very substantial math computation behind it, but it was just programmed, so no track record exists. The linear forecast should do well when a trend Up or Down exists, but may be slow in adjusting to market turns. The nonlinear forecast should be taken with a grain of salt as it can be very capricious. At present I'm working on a Time Series approach using Box/Jenkins methodology ( ARIMA ) , but do not have presentable results. Topaz (08/22/00; 01:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35290) T-orts of Oiland-------Townie- MK- forgive svp? @all, @all An Irishman was drinking at the pub all night. The bartender came up to him and told him that the bar was closing. So the Irishman stood up to leave and fell flat on his face. He tried to stand up one more time with the same result. So he figured he'd just crawl outside, hang out for a while, get some fresh air and hopefully that would sober him up. Once outside he stood up and fell again - right on his face. He decided to crawl the mile back to his home and when he arrived at the door, he tried one more time with the same results. Exhausted, he then gave up and started crawling to the bedroom. When he reached his bed he tried one more time to stand up. This time he managed to pull himself upright but he quickly fell right into the bed and fell sound asleep as soon as his head hit the pillow. The next morning, he woke up with his wife standing over him shouting at him. "You've been out drinking again, haven't you, you bastard!!" "What makes you say that?" he asked as he put on an innocent look. "The pub called; you've left your bloody wheelchair there again." Topaz (08/22/00; 00:44:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35289) BB- Hot Oil bath?? Cavan Man http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/current/world.html You betcha BB- The above site is an excellent ref. for shakes-n-things.The increases in occurrence and magnitude of Quakes is disconcerting to say the least- Oil extraction/Sunspot activity/Devine intervention, I'll leave that to the EXPERTS (as long as they AREN'T the same experts that know soooo much about Pl, Pt, Au, Ag, Oil. <smile>Thanks C-Man,I've got a little "theory of relativity" (sorry Albert) going on in my head and your POV helped.The Euro within the closed loop Ecozone is akin to the Gold Standard No? That's why they're keen on the stuff- (MVHO) All the shortcomings of same will have to be addressed/overcome before a credible Fiat Quasi-Gold standard can emerge----- tall order I'm thinking. LeSin (08/22/00; 00:40:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35288) One World Currency Fix & Gold Priced Accordingly Help from the Experts Required @ pulling @ few treads of Thought Help is requested for the informed, please as I am but a old-student with many questions and all too few answers or solutions.My thoughts gathered from current information and observing shifts in "political will" have concluded that we are moving towards a "ONE WORLD" currency. "Political Will", I am convinced is stronger than the market forces of the "past". Our friend and "Trail Guide/FOA" has mentioned "politacal will" all too often to ignore. It shouts "clarity" to me. It would be nice of FOA to lay all "thoughts" on the table for transparent inspection of "Political Will" - "Players" of Countries that have lost "Political Will" in the support of of the USD. I am reminded here of Malaysia during and post the Asian "Glitch". Malaysia's "Political Will" was to counter IMF advice and plans. Malaysia is now better off, for it. A One World Currency does not necessarily have a requirement to be referred to or "called" a "One World Currency" nor does it have to look like one or the same. When dealing with the "sheeple" "perception" is enough. We may continue to have 3-4 dominate currencies in the World. The "One World" Currency may very well have the same photos-artwork or colours that each major currency already has. Better said is that the USA sheeple will still have a greenback dollor. What is changing and rapidly in this currency war and the freeing up of Gold and PGMs is the "Fix" the "Electronic" "Leveler" the "Flattening" Process. ONE EURO equals = 1USD equals = 1Yen and all three currencies = Oz/gram of free gold.As I see it the Yen must have a couple of zeros removed. The USD will and then have a zero removed. Truthfully the USD is only worth ??????Modern business cannot continue with the present floating and distructive exchange rates in USD. The "Great-Reconciler" and "Leveler" is about to happen.How? When?Where?As you can conclude from the above, I am but a novice and not educated in Economics. I would be grateful for the masters to take over from here."S" ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.