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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/22/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
ThaiGold
(11/22/00; 23:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 42055)
Latest Florida (UnOfficial) Vote ReCount Totals
http://foxnews.com/elections/florida_recount_hand.html
...
..
.
Nice url/link to real-time vote recount totals and status
in Florida:
http://foxnews.com/elections/florida_recount_hand.html
These are unofficial results, but gives a good indication.
justamereBear
(11/22/00; 23:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 42054)
Regarding the abortion debate
I was discussing the abortion question with a gay lady friend some time ago i.e. Is any form of abortion morally allowable, and if so when. She came up with a solution that I thought as being rather neat.
She said that brainwaves in the foetus started during the second trimester, and felt that, up to that time, the foetus could not be described as being alive, and therefore, was abortable, morally. After brainwaves had started, she felt the foetus was an individual, and therefore not abortable as it was murder.
j'Bear
rc
(11/22/00; 23:03:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 42053)
Gold hedging
@beesting
I forgot to mention this : How is it possible that bankers are willing to pay $325 for something they may buy for $250. This is not business any more, it is philanthropy.
ThaiGold
(11/22/00; 22:51:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 42052)
More Precious Than Silver & Gold
Attn: Peter Asher (11/22/00; 22:39:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42049)
...
..
.
Peter Asher:
Thank you for posting that enlightening item.
Rain_Dog and Muffet have demonstrated those characteristics
to me relentlessly. Now I know why.
ThaiGold
rc
(11/22/00; 22:49:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 42051)
Gold hedging and good delivery
@beesting
Sir,
Sorry if I gave you the impression to be on the defensive. I was not. I just wanted to highlight some little known facts. I know we are in the same boat and I had no reason to take offence. Probably due to the fact that as english is not my first language, I may be too blunt at times.
I agree there could be a few millions people selling some broken piece of jewellery (how much? 10 grams at a time?) but at best it represents 50 tons not 600 tons. Moreover this kind of transaction is probably not even reported. So you can count them out of the general picture.
Now ask your dealer about the 400 oz bars. He is supposed to know that they are not .9999 but .9995 or even .995 for some of them. Quite often they are accepted as it is but not always.
Another point is that, as a poster of another forum put it, a good part of CBs gold reserves are in old worn coins, particularly in the US. They must be melted and refined if they are to be sold or leased.
Now hedging. Your opinion to the contrary it involves physical. It works as follows : Miners or speculators borrow a given amount of physical gold at say 1% interest (supposed to be payable in gold metal not paper) and sell it at spot price, say $250/oz, depressing the gold price in the process. The proceed is invested in bonds or whatever at 5% to 7% interest for up to 5 years.
For better understanding let's put it in figures.
Say you borrow 1,000,000 oz at $250/oz, that is $250,000,000 at 1% interest.
You invest that amount at say 7% interest in paper ( bonds, shares, whatever ).
It brings you 17.5 millions a year in interest. Multiply by 5 and you get 87.5 millions that you add to the $250,000,000. Total 337,500,000 millions, minus 1% interest you have to pay back for your gold or 12,5 millions. That is $325,000,000.
Divided it by 1,000,000 oz and you obtain $325/oz. There you are. This is the way these crooks are pulling their rabbits out of their hat. Note that, should the price of gold rises substantially, they may end up in big trouble. This is what happened to Cambior and Ashanti and could pretty well happen to Barrick as well in the near future. This is why Hathaway, rightly, added hedging to physical demand.
This said I hope I did not appear too defensive again.
Have a good night!
Peter Asher
(11/22/00; 22:49:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 42050)
This just in
A revision to the rules of Golf is being sought in South
Florida. Once a player has hit an errant shot, that player will be allowed to call "GORE" while the ball is still in flight. The player can replace the ball in the same spot and hit it again. The player can do this until satisfied the ball is going where it was intended to be hit it in the first place.
Note that this will not replace the traditional call of "FORE" as this should be used in addition to the "GORE" call. The new call will cause the time of play to be extended until such time the player can claim the hole.
Peter Asher
(11/22/00; 22:39:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42049)
As the Holiday Season really begins with Thanksgiving Eve,
And, as there has been much subject matter of late regarding Divine Creation; I am passing along the following story just recieved.
A newly discovered chapter in the Book of Genesis has
provided the answer
> to "Where do pets come from?"
>
> Adam and Eve said, "Lord, when we were in the garden,
you walked with us
> every day. Now we do not see you anymore. We are
> lonesome here and it is difficult for us to remember
how much you love
> us."
>
> And God said, "No problem! I will create a companion
for you that will be
> with you forever and who will be a reflection of my
love for you, so that
> you will love me even when you cannot see me.
Regardless of how selfish
> or childish or unlovable you may be, this new
companion will accept you as
> you are and will love you as I do, in spite of
yourselves."
>
> And God created a new animal to be a companion for
Adam and Eve. And it
> was a good animal. And God was pleased. And the new
animal was pleased to
> be with Adam and Eve and he wagged his tail.
>
> And Adam said, "Lord, I have already named all the
animals in the Kingdom
> and I cannot think of a name for this new animal."
>
> And God said, "No problem. Because I have created this
new animal to be a
> reflection of my love for you, his name will be a
reflection of my own
> name, and you will call him DOG."
>
> And Dog lived with Adam and Eve and was a companion to
them and loved
> them. And they were comforted.
> And God was pleased.
> And Dog was content and wagged his tail.
>
> After a while, it came to pass that an angel came to
the Lord and said,
> "Lord, Adam and Eve have become filled with pride.
They strut and preen
> like peacocks and they believe they are worthy of
adoration. Dog has
> indeed taught them that they are loved, but perhaps
too well."
>
> And God said, "No problem! I will create for them a
companion who will be
> with them forever and who will see them as they are.
The companion will
> remind them of their limitations, so they will know
that they are not
> always worthy of adoration."
>
> And God created CAT to be a companion to Adam and Eve.
>
> And Cat would not obey them. And when Adam and Eve
gazed into Cat's eyes,
> they were reminded that they were not the supreme
beings. And Adam and
> Eve learned humility.
>
> And they were greatly improved.
> And God was pleased.
> And Dog was happy.
> And Cat didn't give a s#@% one way or the other.
>
>
ThaiGold
(11/22/00; 22:29:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 42048)
Gold & Silver Mining Shares Soared Today
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=nem&d=1d
...
..
.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=nem&d=1d
Newmont (gold) NEM/nyse up 7.52%
On nearly double the normal volume of trades.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=hl&d=1d
Hecla (gold & silver) HL/nyse up 11.11%
Looks like these Turkeys have awakened, just in time for
the appropriate Holiday. Best Wishes to you all.
ThaiGold
Marius
(11/22/00; 21:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 42047)
Bore/Gush give way to...
I was delighted to see someone use my accidental creation, Bore/Gush, recently. But I must yield to those intrepid souls over at FreeRepublic.com. I stopped by there earlier today and saw anti-Bore protesters bearing signs that said: "Sore/Loserman" and "My Chad Is Pregnant". How can you not love this country?! Do go see for yourself; it's a hoot.
Also, I recall the Eagles' "Get Over It" being nominated as the definitive song of the political season. I suggest, at this stage of the game, Warren Zevon's "Lawyers, Guns, & Money is a more appropriate choice. Zevon is a sharper wit, and doesn't charge $100+ per ticket to see his show!
In case I have the big one after snorting my considerable weight in turkey tomorrow, have a great day all!
M
Canuck
(11/22/00; 20:04:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42046)
@ Sharefin
Wow, what a wicked spreadsheet, great work guy.
To what does 'Other mining sector' refer to?
TIA.
Jeff C.
(11/22/00; 19:25:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 42045)
(No Subject)
DaveC:
No, you didn't seem to be a "smarta$$", I just honestly didn't know what the terms ment. As to the reason I went to tech and legal points, there is no debate regarding the morals of the issue. And I agree with you on that.
Entire List:
I have to admit that most (if not all) of the financial discussions on the board are over my head. So I'm just going to sit back, "lurk", and try to pick up enough info to avoid looking stupid. So if I ask a moronic question, or make a stupid comment, please bear with me.
Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving
Jeff C.
tedw
(11/22/00; 18:40:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42044)
New Court ruling in Florida
http://www.usagold.com
Newsflash
Circuit Judge, Jorge Larborga, a distant cousin to Fidel Castro has ruled in Palm Beach County that dimpled chads for Al Gore must be counted in the Final tally. In a ruling that took the Bush Camp by surprise, the Judge issued the order at 3:00 pm today. In contrast, the order states that dimpled Chads for Candidate Bush need not be counted.
Justice Larborga stated in his ruling that Democratic voters tended to be older and weaker and that it was appropriate to count the dimples as it was clear they tried to push through the paper but lacked the strength to do it.
Republican voters on the other hand had clearly have the strength to push through the chads so a dimple should not be counted as it is clear they changed their minds.
Justice Larborga stated this was clearly the intent of the legislature as he boarded a plane to Havana to visit his distant Cousin.
Beowulf
(11/22/00; 18:15:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42043)
Heard on CNBC ASIA
Just a few minutes ago on CNBC ASIA an analyst named Mark Faber (from Singapore I think) was asked what areas people should diversify into. He said things like food and some other areas, but what caught my attention was his recommendation to diversify in to Gold and Euro denominated bonds. Of course the interviewer started sputtering about how gold was not quit as good as Platinum for jewelry and started trying to change the subject. Anyway, this Faber dude just kept with it talking about how he could see gold reaching $3,000 within the next few years and then stated it even LOUDER to the interviewers of gold possibly reaching "$3,000 PER OUNCE". I was really awake by this time but they switched to interview someone else REALLY quick. That number just sounded so good to hear from someone on CNBC for a change.
Yeah, I think I could live with a price like that. It makes the current price look really cheap. <BIG GRIN>
Off to bed now to dream of gold eagles and maple leaf dancing over my head.
-Beowulf
Hi-Hat
(11/22/00; 18:14:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42042)
Giving Thanks
Love........Grace.......Gratitude
The justice and injustice will always co-exist.
Both sides of coin are contrary.
It is a perfect world, Blessing to ALL.
schippi
(11/22/00; 17:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42041)
Gold Charts Pointing Up
http://www.SelectSectors.com/goldindx.gif
Gold Index Chart
POG
http://www.SelectSectors.com/pog.gif
Select Gold Hourly ( FSAGX )
http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif
wolavka
(11/22/00; 17:56:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 42040)
justamere Bear
BETWEEN HOPE AND FEAR LOVE MAKE HERE HOME.
We shall prevail. patience!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
wolavka
(11/22/00; 17:43:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 42039)
All
hug your children, that's what this is all about.
Mom ,god and apple pie+ gold.
hope you try that recipe!!!!!!!!!!
Enjoy the week -end. luv all of you!
beesting
(11/22/00; 17:16:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42038)
Sir,rc # 42032
http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/CIORStats.htm
Sir, it was not my intent with my previous post directed to you to put you into the defensive mode. I think we're both here for the same reason; To learn as much about Gold and Gold related issues, as possible.
With that in mind, please click the above URL supplied by Gandalf the White @ 11/21/00 22:35MT msg. # 41966.
On my PC the red numbers seem to represent(CB) Gold sold, and the black numbers represent(CB) Gold bought.
So, now lets look at part of your # 42032 message, it was received very jumbled on my PC'so dates are added for clarity only.
From rc:[Snip]
<<BSspeak you find out that the picture is quite different.
Consider :
Gold Supply/Demand Balance 1999 2000 tonnes est.
_____________________________________________
Mine production(1999) 2,569T...(2000)2,650T.
Official sector sales(1999) 441T...(2000) 250T.
Old gold scrap(1999) 623T...(2000) 650T.
Producers hedging(1999) 445T...(2000) 150T.
-----------------------------------------------
Total Supply(1999) 4,078T...(2000) 3,700T.
===============================================
Jewelry(1999) 3,069T...(2000) 3,350T.
Other fabrication(1999) 603T...(2000) 618T
Bar hoarding(1999) 203T...(2000) 150T.
-----------------------------------------------
Total demand(1999) 3,875T...(2000) 4,118T.
===============================================
Balance = Net investment(1999) 203T...(2000)(418)T(a minus)
===============================================
For more information about the above go to :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/hathaway013100.html
Now look at the supply :
Mine production : no comment.
Official gold sales : Gold good delivery.
Old gold scrap : This is BCspeak for old coins and 400 oz gold bar which are not good delivery i.e.
.9995 or lower instead of .9999. This so called scrap come right out of the CBs reserves to be
melted down, refined and sold at .9999.>>[Unsnip]
beesting comment:
rc my friend, where did you get the above information from, if I might ask? My wife recently took some broken pieces of 12 Karat & 14 Karat jewelry & some Gold from teeth(it's a long story) into the local coin/Gold dealer, who gave her cash in return. I would suspect there may be a few million people worldwide in the course of a year doing the same thing.
From rc:[Snip]
<<Producer hedging : Again CBspeak. Everyone of us knows that hedging means selling. That is : gold
taken out of the CBs reserves to be dumped unto the market.>>[Unsnip]
beesting comment:
Again Sir rc, my understanding of Gold hedging:
It is a complicated process where unmined physical Gold is sold,"on paper only",for delivery at some specified date in "the future"! It's mostly large amounts from Gold miners, although, as you say, any large holder of physical Gold could do it.
From rc:[Snip]
<<Put all these figures together and you end up with, respectively, 1,509 tons for 1999 and FWIW
1,468 tons for 2000 all out of the CBs' vaults. Quite a discrepancy between what they want us to believe.>>[Unsnip]
beesting comment:
Again, all I can say is click the above URL.
All my information that I pass on comes off the PC here in front of me with lots of modifications due to memory lapses.(Am I ready for the "booby hatch"?) When using any figures I try make the reader aware that they are only, "somewhere in the ballpark figures." I did look at Mr. Hathaway's fine essay, however, in his comments he seems to mix physical Gold amounts with paper Gold amounts(Hedging) in a manner where one cannot be seperated from another clearly.Sir rc,many thanks for reading and responding....beesting.
R Powell
(11/22/00; 17:11:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42037)
Turkey Day
I haven't spoken in a while as I haven't had anything worth saying but I've been here all the time. I'm listening in the corner.
However, I do wish to say "Happy Turkey Day" to everyone-- everywhere and to remind everyone that holiday feasting is very much like voting, it should be done early and often.
Happy and safe holiday to all!
Rich
Beowulf
(11/22/00; 17:07:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42036)
something to do while bored at home
http://www.colonize.com/warp/index.html
**Tired of looking at Gore and Bush and hearing about "Chads", "Pregnant Chads", "Dimpled Chads", or vote fraud? Cheer up and turn these grumpy guys into smiling frogs or big eyed alien politicians. Click on the link above.**
**OFF TOPIC VOTING POST**
Being over seas I've got military men and women arguing and grumbling about fraud and there ballots being thrown out. Some didn't even get their ballots until November 4 and it takes at least 10 days to get back to the States. Mine didn't show up until October 23 and stated directly on it that it needed to be in the office of the county clerk by 7 PM on the 7th or it wouldn't be counted.
I personally work with three officers and one enlisted from Flori-duh. The officers voted for Bush and the enlisted man voted for Gore incase anyone wanted to know. If I was military I'd have reservations about reenlisting with this going on. I heard one captain already talking about leaving and going out into the real world and letting the politicians go out and fight instead.
Anyway, while contemplating what is going on back home in the States I came to the conclusion that maybe Bush should concede the vote to Gore and walk away instead of dragging this out. Why fight this guy, it only makes both of the parties look foolish. Walk away and let the Democrats look like the fools. Do you think this would get people upset? Would congress accept it? I know it would really change the minds of many in the next election to change from a corrupt candidate to someone else.
I'm no Gore supporter, I voted absentee for Browne in New Mexico. But I'm tired of the grumbling at work and reading about it here is getting depressing. We sit here at work fighting for money to fix WWII era buildings in Europe and Asia while we shut down bases in the States. While I help fix buildings to house U.S. troops it bugs me that we may have taken funds away from some base back home that is fighting for its survival with antiquated equipment and buildings. Maybe it's time to bring the troops home, shut down the bases overseas, and fix the bases in the States instead of closing them down. We aren't the worlds police force and our forces weren't meant to be used for such. At some point the world needs to just beat each other up until they can learn its easier and cheaper to just play nice with each other.
**BACK TO GOLD**
On the brighter side after 6 months of showing coins purchased over the months, one co-worker finally asked how much they cost. When I told her gold was at a 20 year low she wanted to get a 2000 eagle and a 2000 maple leaf for her husband for Christmas and asked me if I thought he'd like them. My reply was, "I have no doubt in my mind that he will like them, and if not then I'd buy them back any time within the next year at the price you paid". <BIG SMILE>
Well, back to lurking from the sidelines. I think I'll go look at some shinny coins for a while to chear up. Looking forward to a nice Macaroni and Cheese Thanksgiving.
-Beowulf
P.S. ignore any spelling mistakes, no time to spell check.
justamereBear
(11/22/00; 15:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42035)
Gerald 42007
Hey, you sweet talkin' debbil, keep talkin' like dat and I'll follow you anywhere.
Actually, I am deeply honored by your post, and want to welcome you to the forum. I expect that you will find,as I did, that it is really great to converse with thinking people, and unfortunately it becomes addictive.
And, yes, I think there will be a FEW honorable people come forward, and I want to be around them. Unfortunately, the majority will be otherwise, and as wolavka posted about the 5 monkeys, it is going to be hard to maintain this position. But then, this will be a time of great change, and if we can get back to some more idealistic "island" that can in turn "infect" the immediate surroundings, then we have a hope.
In any case, welcome, and now and in the future events, good luck. Hope to see more of you.
Best regards
j'Bear
beesting
(11/22/00; 14:56:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 42034)
Environmental Discussion...Sir Galearis # 42027.
Sir Galearis, part of your post:
[Snip]
<<Do I think that societies decline both socially, politically due to a decline in overall awareness and sophistication. Yup. I consider this to be a major cause (if not the only one). I see a decline in this sophistication in the US and Canada today. I do not think this a healthy trend. I see poverty numbers growing in the greatest credit bubble in history. Hmmmmm. Could that too be a reflection of a failing education system. Maybe.....(smile)>>[Unsnip}
Good post, may I go back about 50 years in my life and see if I could respond as a student.
Sir, the reason I'm going to school is to eventually get a good job,THAT PAYS LOTS OF MONEY!
Which jobs in the U.S. currently pay the most?
Is it a Goldminer?...NO!
Is it a strawberry picker?...NO!
Is it any kind of laborer?...NO!
Could it be a Lawyer/Politician?...YES!
Could it be a doctor?....YES!
Could it be a top executive in a large company....YES!
Could it be a drug dealer legal or illegal....YES!
Now, students at a very young age realize that not everyone will ever be able to get into the yes catagory. IMHO a student that is not in the top percentage of his/her class slowly gets further and further behind, for the rest of his/her life.
Right or wrong,I blame it on the wage=standard of life scale . Lets use our imaginations a little bit and imagine if:
A Goldminer could earn as much or more than the "YES" catagory!
A strawberry picker could earn as much or more than the "YES" catagory!
A laborer could earn as much or more than the "YES" catagory!
Well, I just don't think kids anywhere would give up learning if they knew no matter how well or how bad their grades were there is still a very important position in society open to them, with a wage scale high enough to give a family a high standard of living.
Why is the U.S. screwed up today?
Because Government jobs offer more security than any other profession for the least amount of WORK!An estimated 45%(It may be higher,I don't know.) of the U.S. workforce is in someway connected to Government. And, who is paying for these Government jobs? Why amongst others,Goldminers,Strawberry Pickers, and Laborers, through taxation.(might I add without representation).
As the masses get further and further into poverty more and more dissension develops and fertile ground for a change of Government develops.
I know this turned into a long post, but I just have to add this; Unemployment figures were released today, and unemployment in the U.S. rose a small amount.The key as I see it is employment in the U.S. If the unemployment figures get too high.....WATCH OUT....All HELL might break loose. Thanks for Reading.
Those in the Know....Are Buying..Gold!!...beesting.
John Doe
(11/22/00; 14:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 42033)
Cheney Residency Case Now in Texas
http://www.gopbi.com/partners/pbpost/epaper/editions/tuesday/news_16.html
By Mary McLachlin, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, November 21, 2000
WEST PALM BEACH -- A federal court battle over whether vice presidential candidate Richard Cheney is still legally an inhabitant of Texas -- and thus ineligible to claim that state's 32 electoral votes -- moved Monday from the Southern District of Florida to the Northern District of Texas.
Hours after a federal judge dismissed the original suit filed by Boca Raton lawyer Lawrence Caplan in Miami, a Fort Worth attorney filed a similar action in Dallas on behalf of three Texas voters.
A Cheney spokeswoman called the suit "sheer nonsense."
Both Article II and the 12th Amendment to the Constitution forbid a state's electors from voting for both a presidential and vice presidential candidate from their own state.
U.S. District Judge K. Michael Moore denied Caplan's motion to stop the Texas secretary of state from certifying the electoral votes for the Bush-Cheney ticket, saying the case had to be filed in a district where one or more of the defendants live. Caplan had added Vice President Al Gore, the ultimate certifier of U.S. electoral votes, as a defendant to try to persuade Moore that any federal court had jurisdiction.
"While the court recognizes (Caplan's) belief that `this action involves a constitutional question of great import,' " Moore's ruling said, he would not allow Caplan to get around the venue issue by adding Gore.
Cheney flew to Wyoming in July and switched his voter registration and driver's license before Bush announced his choice as the vice presidential candidate. The lawsuits say that was merely a ruse to get around the Constitution and doesn't make him an "inhabitant" under either state or federal law.
Cheney grew up in Wyoming, represented the state in Congress and still owns a vacation home in Jackson Hole. He has worked for a Dallas-based oil-drilling company and lived in Highland Park, a Dallas suburb, since 1995 in a home on which he and his wife, Lynne, claim homestead exemption.
According to the Texas voters' suit, Cheney listed the $1.6 million home for sale Thursday, four days after Caplan's suit was filed and he had received a summons for it. Cheney's spokeswoman confirmed that the property was put on the market, but said it had nothing to do with the lawsuit.
"The Cheneys have been in the process of selling it since he accepted the vice presidential nomination and were always planning on putting it on the market after the election," Juleanna Glover-Weiss said. "I believe they've been fielding offers privately."
"The suit is absolutely frivolous," she said. "It's sheer nonsense."
Fort Worth attorney William K. Berenson filed the action on behalf of Stephen E. Jones, Linda D. Lydia and Caroline Franco, identified as residents of Dallas County who voted in the Nov. 7 election.
The suit says Cheney had to establish legal residency in Wyoming by election day. But Texas Attorney General John Cornyn said Monday that Cheney has until Dec. 18, when the Electoral College meets, to establish where he lives.
"That's the relevant time," said Cornyn, whose office is defending Texas Secretary of State Elton Bomer. He predicted the suit would be thrown out and would have "zero impact on the presidential election."
Caplan said he would not appeal or amend the Florida suit.
"I've done the heavy lifting and now it's up to the people of Texas," he said.
Gary Susswein of The Austin American-Statesman contributed to this story.
rc
(11/22/00; 14:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42032)
Gold physical against derivatives
@Pandagold & beesting
Sir Pandagold,
Your opinion to the contrary I don't believe gold paper is able to depress gold prices all by itself. Gold paper try to take advantage of a trend either higher or lower that you create by selling physical gold. And it doesn't take much gold to reach such a result. Ten to twenty tons will be enough. At best there is not more than 12 to 15 tons per day available from the mining sector. Dump ten tons on top of these and you are quite sure to depress the price of the metal. At which point you are able to play gold paper for an unlimited amount. While I am quite sceptical, I realize that it is theorically possible to manage the gold price through derivatives but once that happens you'll end up with two gold prices. $250/oz paper and $250 + say $2,000 premium for the metal, as one poster once put it.
Sir beesting,
You are right. As you say " There are so many conflicting official and un-official opinions on the worlds gold markets that no-one seems really have all the answers."
All official figures are bound to confuse people like us. However once you start to understand BSspeak you find out that the picture is quite different.
Consider :
Gold Supply/Demand Balance 1999 2000
tonnes est.
_____________________________________________
Mine production 2,569 2,650
Official sector sales 441 250
Old gold scrap 623 650
Producers hedging 445 150
-----------------------------------------------
Total Supply 4,078 3,700
===============================================
Jewelry 3,069 3,350
Other fabrication 603 618
Bar hoarding 203 150
-----------------------------------------------
Total demand 3,875 4,118
===============================================
Balance = Net investment 203 (418)
===============================================
For more information about the above go to :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/hathaway013100.html
Now look at the supply :
Mine production : no comment.
Official gold sales : Gold good delivery.
Old gold scrap : This is BCspeak for old coins and 400 oz gold bar which are not good delivery i.e. .9995 or lower instead of .9999. This so called scrap come right out of the CBs reserves to be melted down, refined and sold at .9999.
Producer hedging : Again CBspeak. Everyone of us knows that hedging means selling. That is : gold taken out of the CBs reserves to be dumped unto the market.
Put all these figures together and you end up with, respectively, 1,509 tons for 1999 and FWIW 1,468 tons for 2000 all out of the CBs' vaults. Quite a discrepancy between what they want us to believe.
As for the gold left after World War II, in all due respect, I am very sceptical. I have known these stories for a long time and while there is certainly some truth in it, the amount involved must be relatively small. At best a few hundreds tons.
For thwo reasons.
1. At the end of the war, most of the world gold reserves where in the U.S.A. Supposedly for safe keeping. Even 50% of Swiss gold reserves have been sent in the US. And BTW this is exactly what the Swiss are selling now. Because they can't get it back.
2. At least 60% of gold has been produced after the war, that is from 1945 to 2000.
As for Elwood post, he may be right. But this is because the gold has to be supplied just to keep up with the demand.
Have a good afternoon!
White Hills
(11/22/00; 13:56:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 42031)
Journeyman Msg# 42023
Journeyman, Greetings from the City of Dreams, Las Vegas. I certainly hope that there is a difference between Bush & Gore. I would settle for Bush to bring into the Government people with class that respect the law and know what honor and integrity means. The present administration is Clintonized and Arkansas politics ala national level rule. If Bush gets in who knows what will be discovered has been going on. White Hills
Rockgrabber
(11/22/00; 13:27:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42030)
A fun guess
A now to then scenario....
OK here we are, and here we go
U.S dollar extreemly strong.
Stocks melting down for many reasons.
Cash is king, oil is high, christmas is coming.
People holding a strong US dollar spend at will for high oil, energy, and good for holidays, plus themselfes.
Trade deficit continues to blossom towards or even above 40 billion.
US dollar now looses value rappidly.
Cash no longer king, why would everybody hold all this cash thats loosing value?
Cash chases goods, all things tangable.
Inflation burns the dollar, dollar goes up in smoke.
Interest rates blast to the moon to make the old dollar worth even looking at, plus they can get everything back.
USA bailed out by IMF/World Bank. (possibly by another currency) We would not need more worthless dollars that would even be made more worthless by giving us more of them.
OOOOHH and of course somewhere Gold is found to be in way short supply of what is on paper as gold is called.
And somewhere in there we will have a war most likely, I just dont know where to fit it. Any suggestions?
The Hoople
(11/22/00; 13:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42029)
Goldilocks took her mask, it's a Spaniard with a crowbar
It's getting nearly impossible for bubbleonians to put bullish spin on all the negative turn of events. Dudak getting kicked off the Ruckeyser elf team last winter was a classic sell signal. Like the mania that produced Bezos the clown and Amazon, I am confident they all will one day view gold and silver just as irrationally. Just the events unfolding currently would warrant drastically higher $ pog, without cabal interference. Any new disorder will eventually produce a trigger for the default setting that has been broken for 20 years. While my dot.gone buddies are puking in the bathrooms on lunch break, I sleep well, courtesy of PM's.
nummus aureus
(11/22/00; 13:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 42028)
More revisionist revelations?
Pandagold, thanks for the laugh, in your #42005, where you ended with:
"Have a great Thanksgiving, and when you tuck into that turkey, think of we Brits who made it all possible."
May I quote you at my next Tribal Council Meeting?
Galearis
(11/22/00; 12:52:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 42027)
@ Mr. Gresham, your #1509 of yesterday
On-going discussion of Libertarianism and the"environment"
Welcome to the discussion Sir Mr. Gresham.
You said:
*****************
I had wanted to get my thoughts into just one sentence, so here goes:
How can citizens join together to solve a pressing problem without creating an addition to the power structure that persists and takes away their liberties?
*************
A wonderful question that truly cuts to the heart of the problem! How indeed?!
The equally short answer from me (an answer I am sure that would be shared by those more knowledgeable than I) is:
I DO NOT KNOW! But I realize the answer would solve much.(smile)
But I have (surprise!) an opinion or two.
The oft trotted out conventional wisdom on this centers around education. I agree with conventional wisdom in this case - even this sound bite varitey. Almost every problem can be solved after all by awareness OF the problem by the GREATEST numbers of those impacted. This implies that knowledge, sophistocation and resulting understanding of the parameters of the problem would pave way for equitable solutions. It would create a caring about the solution.
I have always been struck by how much awareness of things in general is an enrichment of life in general. A love of minerals, plants, trees - all of these things and more has one immediate result. I see more of all this in a given landscape, understand it (and am also equally thrilled by the questions arising) - much more than those that do not have the background - I have an increased level of appreciation as a byproduct and I CARE about these things (and by inference the loss of them.) This learning process also spins off into an aesthetic appreciation as well and truly underlines, no and PROVES the notion that education and knowledge is an enrichment in itself beyond the relms of material wealth that is measured in the conventional way.
This is not as much a digression from topic as one might think.
Onwards. Does the business/corporate community know this? To some extent they do I feel (at least subjectively). The corporate agenda favours "education" only on the lowest level in the meaning of the definition. They would like a "trained" work force, not necessarily a sophisticated and educated one - unless it fits in with the direction of their product and marketing goals.(Biological, chemical, well you get the drift of my words I am sure.) A sophisticated and well educated population is an aware one. They may even be (too?) judgemental about some of the processes and events that they see around them. To test this premise in an accessible area to those of this forum one only has to ask whether a sophisticated population in fiscal or macro-economics would ever create/tolerate the present credit bubble, or be so oblivious to the scandlous situation in the gold markets? Hard to say, yes? Corporations do not really like their people to be particularly sophisticated in a lot of irrelevant areas of academia since it would lead to labour unrest, perhaps(?).
It would also demand of the political arena a greater quality of performance on the part of government.
So modern society either reactively or in a social revolutionary way has favoured the direction of over- specialization in the work place. That cogs in the wheel thingy, yes? All of this is generalization, of course, and may only more or less accurate in a very general way.
But it is a start.
All right, to continue with my "short" answer to the unanswerable, I would tend to lean towards favouring a direction away from specialization to more liberal arts. The full-rounded education is best for society in the long run - simply because it fosters a wider scope of view and a caring in general about more that goes (and is) around them. The right wing is encouraging the opposite so in my middle of the road liberal contrarian mindset, I rather think there should be more balance. We should go backwards (and I appreciate the irony of my own words here).
A sophisticated and aware population: would have a less narrow vested interest(s)(in a number of areas) in government directions, and much nonsense, disinformation propaganda would not "fly". This assumes, of course, that the government is democratic. Such governments always have to be careful with their policies with a well-educated electorate looking on....
This would be my "short" answer.
Is this possible? Possibly. Has it ever happened? More or less, mostly less than more.
It will always be the perpetual quandry in my opinion.
Do I think that societies decline both socially, politically due to a decline in overall awareness and sophistication. Yup. I consider this to be a major cause (if not the only one). I see a decline in this sophistication in the US and Canada today. I do not think this a healthy trend. I see poverty numbers growing in the greatest credit bubble in history. Hmmmmm. Could that too be a reflection of a failing education system. Maybe.....(smile)
Governments will always take advantage when people look the other way for whatever reasons.
They take your liberties by default. Then they can even take your life....Or give it away to someone else. The no-wiser are often never even aware of the trend or the result.
But one should always remember, as Trail Guide said, they are us, and we are them.
WE ARE RESPONSIBLE.
Wise words all.
Thanks for getting me going and provoking some exchange of views. To the rest of the group: sorry to be off topic.
Again.
Regards,
G.
Golden Truth
(11/22/00; 12:36:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42026)
GOOD NEWS!
GOLD closed up 1.25/oz it's been awhile since this has happened?
I'll take it thankyou :-)
G.T
wolavka
(11/22/00; 12:28:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42025)
Dollar index march
crawled off top of t.l. @ 11750 . 118 was the old breakdown on 11-26.
This relates to dec gold break down on same date. What is of interest is that gold has gone sideways since the date the dollar started to breakdown.
Dollars 2nd leg down should take it back to low on 11-3.
no advice.
MarkeTalk
(11/22/00; 12:26:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42024)
Of Circuses and Elections
By now, we are all growing somewhat weary of the circus i.e. election results being reported in Florida. With every piece of breaking news, stocks soar and then swoon again, depending on how the political pundits interpret the news. But aside from the moment-to-moment gyrations, I find the more meaty stuff can be found on Nightline and on the Sunday morning talk shows. Last night's Nightline with Ted Koppel featured two constitutional law scholars with opposing viewpoints due to their political persuasions. The most enlightening guest was the Bush legal strategist named Mr. Ginsberg. He hinted at the legal issue which would allow Bush to appeal the Florida Supreme Court's decision directly to the U.S. Supreme Court. For those without a legal background, an issue can only make it to the highest court if (1) it involves a question arising under the U.S. Constitution or (2) it involves a "federal" question which can't be resolved at the state level or (3) various lower U.S. district courts have reached inconsistent decisions on the same question.
To put this in a nutshell, Bush's legal team will argue that the Florida Supreme Court overstepped its bounds last night by acting in two capacities: (1) as a judicial body and (2) as a legislative body when it went beyond the clear meaning of the statute. There was a violation of the separation of powers which the U.S. Constitution clearly sets forth. Thus, they now have a basis for an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. But the highest court does not have to hear the issue itself; it can remand it back to the lower court.
Now all of this legal manovering will gobble up crucial time. It appears increasingly unlikely that the whole issue will be resolved before the December 12th deadline when Florida must certify the ballot. The electors meet on December 18th. If Florida is unable to certify the vote, then no meeting. Come January 21st there might not be a man to swear into office. The whole thing could end up in the House of Representatives where (I believe) the Republicans still control a majority (since the arrival of the 1994 freshman Republicans).
Bottom line here: the stock market HATES this type of uncertainty and it shows. The DOW was down over 100 points earlier today. NASDAQ just broke 2800 today and is flirting with 2700. Gold wants to break out but is still being held back by the Hannibal Cannibals. The longer this whole thing drags on, the more stocks will tumble. As stocks are dropping, big Al Greenspan is flooding the markets with billions of dollars in liquidity so bonds are up--for the time being. Add to that fact the monthly trade deficit is on track this month to hit an all-time record of $35 billion, up from $30.5 billion last month! Next we will see a $40 billion per month trade deficit. (See the "Commentary and Review" on this site under Daily Market Report.) Sometime very soon these numbers will break the confidence that foreigners have in the U.S. Dollar and then the avalanche of selling will begin. Gold will skyrocket in response. Don't be surprised to see gold up $50-100 in a single week!
Journeyman
(11/22/00; 11:27:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 42023)
One democrat and two independents elect Bush @ALL
The Miami-Dade canvassing board, composition in this message header, unanimously vote to stop recount and certify Nov. 8 results as provided to Fla. Sec. of State on that date.
This means those 10,000 or so wierd ballots, presumably with a healthy Gore excess, won't be counted.
The reason: It's impossible to do a hand recount of ALL Miami-Dade votes by the deadline was impossible.
Regards, j.
P.S. I want to go on record, and as Panda suggested, Bush as president isn't going to make any significant long-term difference over Gore. Remember who's president has no more effect on things than Ronald McDonald has as to what's on your BigMac -- this is all decided by folks (in the case of government, by bureaucrats and lobbyists) behind the scenes.
Sharefin
(11/22/00; 11:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42022)
Gold Producers Spreadsheet
http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/Production97.xls
For those who're interested, here's a spreadsheet on gold producers.
I created it to highlight hedging & exposure to a rise in the POG.
Listed are forwards & net calls (calls sold - calls bought)
There's bound to be some mistakes so do your own DD.
As the list grows it'll be updated & errors fixed.
Excel 97 version
http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/Production97.xls
Excel 95 version
http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/Production95.xls
Ascii text version
http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/ProductionTXT.txt
Enjoy......^o-o^
beesting
(11/22/00; 10:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42021)
@ Sir Al Fulchino msg. # 41995.
Al, the quotes could have come from George Washington "CARVER",(another famous early American)( a typo left off the last name) or George the Lobster Fisherman! We don't care,it was a great post!
One of the reasons I never give up on Gold is, I'm also a lifelong Red Sox fan,,,,we just NEVER quit,,, hope-ing,,'someday.....World Champions....someday...Gold at $10,000 per ounce!!
Have a Happy Thanksgiving All....beesting.
wolavka
(11/22/00; 10:33:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 42020)
looking in all the wrong places
Start looking away from the election toward who is, or will or can unwind the 69,000 dec contracts.
cftc reporting levels and position limits on specs.
first notice day is 11-30 on dec.If you're long you are rewarded by taking delivery.
Being a zero sums game, something has got to give.
I'd be looking @ cftc and asking some questions.
need to see what came out today on short trading day.
Should explode over the 4 day week end, may see gap up on Monday and put this all behind us.
ET
(11/22/00; 10:30:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42019)
Al - The Role of Ideas @ Mises
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap9sec1.asp
Hey Al - you wrote;
"There is no doubt in my mind, that there are certain principles that exist for us all to witness. Mathematicians
use slide rules that can measure them. Chemists have litmus paper that can affirm their presence. Seafarers
have their compass. If we follow them, we can calculate. We can determine contents. And find our way. If we
are humble enough to realize that we cannot invent principles we can profit, learn and be guided in life. And
also be inspired by their awesome beauty if we have little in the way of our own ego. This inspiration is
actually love and respect.
"In our life, we are witnesses to the constant battle of whether people, ourselves, our family friends and the
country and world, shall utilize these principles. Or avoid<deny> them. The battle is between right and
wrong, bright ideas and not so bright ideas (right ET?), and good and evil. Principles come from somewhere.
A benevolent Father in heaven perhaps. Maybe just an orderly progression of evolution. Some of you know
what I believe. And the opposite of this has to be confusion. Where does this come from? Perhaps we simply
exist in a state of random development. In control of nothing, we plod along hoping for a good day to come
our way. Sounds a bit depressing doesn't it? But truly these are the two opposites. Principles and the lack of
them which encompass confusion in our lives and that of events. Where this comes from I will leave up for
your thoughts."
Al, you may find the following section from Mises' "Human Action" helpful in discerning where principles originate. I think you'll find this interesting. Have a Happy holiday!
Quoted text follows:
IX. THE ROLE OF IDEAS
1. Human Reason
Reason is man's particular and characteristic feature. There is no need for praxeology to raise the
question whether reason is a suitable tool for the cognition of ultimate and absolute truth. It deals
with reason only as far as it enables man to act.
All those objects which are the substratum of human sensation, perception, and observation also
pass before the senses of animals. But man alone has the faculty of transforming sensuous stimuli
into observation and experience. And man alone can arrange his various observations and
experiences into a coherent system.
Action is preceded by thinking. Thinking is to deliberate beforehand over future action and to reflect
afterwards upon past action. Thinking and acting are inseparable. Every action is always based on a
definite idea about causal relations. He who thinks a causal relation thinks a theorem. Action without
thinking, practice without theory are unimaginable. The reasoning may be faulty and the theory
incorrect; but thinking and theorizing are not lacking in any action. On the other hand thinking is
always thinking of a potential action. Even he who thinks of a pure theory assumes that the theory is
correct, i.e., that action complying with its content would result in an effect to be expected from its
teachings. It is of no relevance for logic whether such action is feasible or not.
It is always the individual who thinks. Society does not think any more than it eats or drinks. The
evolution of human reasoning from the naive thinking of primitive man to the more subtle thinking of
modern science took place within society. However, thinking itself is always an achievement of
individuals. There is joint action, but no joint thinking. There is only tradition which preserves
thoughts and communicates them to others as a stimulus to their thinking. However, man has no
means of appropriating the thoughts of his precursors other than to think them over again. Then, of
course, he is in a position to proceed farther on the basis of his forerunners' thoughts. The foremost
vehicle of tradition is the word. Thinking is linked up with language and vice versa. Concepts are
embodied in terms. Language is a tool of thinking as it is a tool of social action. [p. 178]
The history of thought and ideas is a discourse carried on from generation to generation. The
thinking of later ages grows out of the thinking of earlier ages. Without the aid of this stimulation
intellectual progress would have been impossible. The continuity of human evolution, sowing for the
offspring and harvesting on land cleared and tilled by the ancestors, manifests itself also in the history
of science and ideas. We have inherited from our forefathers not only a stock of products of various
orders of goods which is the source of our material wealth; we have no less inherited ideas and
thoughts, theories and technologies to which our thinking owes its productivity. But thinking is
always a manifestation of individuals.
CoBra(too)
(11/22/00; 10:24:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 42018)
Gold Mining Stocks - Refuse to drop further!
While, POG still rangebound the major au producers refuse to go lower and are slowly, almost imperceptible rising. There probably is not much room to tank further, though as in early 1993 the producers lead the POG for a few months. And at that stage it was a prolonged bear market rally.
This time it may well signal a major sea-change of perception. I admit, I'm getting increasingly more positive about gold and its producers.
Happy Thanksgiving to all US friends - and pse leave us others not with the cold turkey -
Kind regards cb2
SHIFTY
(11/22/00; 10:02:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42017)
Drudge
BUS BOMB /// Explosion in Israeli town; Israeli casualties reported... explosion went off during evening rush hour in the downtown area. Ambulances rushed to the scene.... URGENT'''' At least 4 casualties in Israeli bomb blast...
ALSO:
Miami-Dade canvassing voted unanimously to bar reporters from watching the recount... Republican observers on the 19th floor screaming at the top of their lungs about Dems moving to little room where nobody can see the selective re-count announced by the Miami-Dade canvassing board a couple of hours ago.... MORE... Republicans chanting and pounding on the door LET US IN... LET US IN..... Away from the door chanting LET US SEE THE BALLOTS... CHEATERS...... Inside the very building where the counts are taking place... UPDATE...
$hifty
Mr Gresham
(11/22/00; 09:44:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 42016)
Bye!
Running for that airport full of lines and bumping shoulders...
Gone a week. No sneaking off to the computer to check USAGold between dinner and dessert courses... Cold turkey for me (after tomorrow, anyway.)
Sad that I won't be telling relatives about this forum that I am most thankful for. Too great a stretch. Trust is a peculiar bird that perches where it will.
Be good to each other. Honor our host's generosity. He is a true find in a world of sham. He deserves decorum among his guests. We'll all still be here after this political stuff blows away. Remember -- in cyberspace, no one can see you smile (yet). (smile)
(Don't nobody go anywhere! Al -- you need the warmth we generate on cold N.H. nights ahead, as we need yours.)
beesting
(11/22/2000; 9:28:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42015)
@ Gandalf # 41966 Great Find.....W.G.C. Statistics.
http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/CIORStats.htm
I think this statement which some suspected to be the case for a long, long time has finally come out in the open.
[Snip]
<<Gold interest. Central banks who lend gold to the market sometimes receive the interest due in gold.>>[Unsnip]
Comment:
Think what this means,no matter what the paper value of Gold in any currency, the Gold loan is paid back in ""GOLD""!
So, Central Bankers don't trust currency values as a storage of wealth, they trust only Gold.(From the movie Goldfinger) Think about this please, these people are the "TOP" of the heap in the financial kingdom!Ask yourself this, would these people understand world financial affairs better than me??
Those in the Know are Buying and Storing....GOLD.....beesting.
Silverback
(11/22/2000; 9:20:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 42014)
Hmmm.......
Open interest falling, slight midmorning rise, what's going on Wolavka? Will the dam frustrating the golden river give way?
USAGOLD
(11/22/2000; 9:05:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42013)
Happy Thanksgiving to All. . .
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html
All of us here at USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals extend our best wishes to you and your families for a restful and fun-filled Thanksgiving. Thank you for making this web site possible through your gold purchases at Centennial Precious Metals. It is you who nourish these pages and we appreciate
it.
We invite you to take a close look at our Christmas gold coin jewelry offerings. 'Tis the Season, my fellow goldmeisters. And what better gift, than the Gift of Gold. If you think these golden beauties are something on the
computer screen, they'll knock you over in person. We invite you to contact Marie Ballard and she will be happy to help you select that perfect gift that's sure to please -- bullion coin pendants, historical pendants, gold chains and accessories, all at prices you are unlikely to find at the local jewelry store.
Call 800-869-5115 and ask for Marie. . .or Click Here to get a better idea what we're talking about .......... In order to assure getting your Gift of Gold to you before Christmas, we request that you place your order by December 15th.
I won't be writing until Monday unless something of extraordinary interest develops between now and then. However, I will leave up the last few Commentaries since they summarize what I believe to be some fundamentally important changes in gold market sentiment.
If you haven't joined us through our trial subscription program, we invite you to do so. Just scroll to the Trial Subsciption section for details. Jill Snyder will be issuing passwords today only and not again until Monday.
Enjoy.
Go to the Daily Market Report page (see link above):
Dissecting the Good News
"You Don't Need a Weatherman to Know Which Way the Wind Blows"
Thanksgiving weekend's report continues exlusively at COMMENTARY & REVIEW
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 9:02:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 42012)
can people in politics
use the chads as toilet paper???
Journeyman
(11/22/2000; 8:50:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42011)
Cute little dimpled chads @ALL
"In all candor, determining voter intent from a ballot card is impossible." -Judge Burton, 3 man canvassing board member, testifying at Palm Beach Co. Hearing on Dimpled Chads, FNC, Nov. 22, 2000, ~10:34 AM EST
Regards, j.
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 8:49:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 42010)
getting close
feel the fear.
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 8:45:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 42009)
Golds in devault
Did you say de vault, or default?
DaveC
(11/22/2000; 8:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 42008)
ThaiGold (11/22/2000; 5:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 41992)
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=552&FS=Destroying+the+Rule+of+Law
Blessing In Disguise?
Thai, at first glance I tend to agree with you but upon reflection I have to say that, articulated in the article in the link above, the Rule Of Law is what is being destoyed here by this group of gangsters inhabiting Washinton DC.
An Algore presidency will, IMHO, continue this trend and that will make it even more difficult to recover from.
Just my 2 cents.
Gerald
(11/22/2000; 8:35:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 42007)
New Poster
Gentlemen: If I may be so bold as to use that antiquated, non-PC term, AND I AM MOST CERTAINLY BOLD ENOUGH TO BE NON-PC!! I registered primararily to commend justamerebear on his excelent posting of a few days ago. Justamere, I couldnt
have said it better myself, except I am not quite so negative. I feel that when THE crunch comes, some good men and women will step out of the shadows, with apossibilty of some shred of civility and civilization being preserved after a period of great bloodshed and decimation of society
has run its course. Reguards Justamere, Gerald
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 8:33:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42006)
O.I.
in dec comex gold last nite still 69,000+ contracts
2-3 days before first notice.
NOW WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GONNA HAPPEN!!!!!!!
Pandagold
(11/22/2000; 8:25:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 42005)
u pluribus Unum
Arabs, oil, gold, and Harmony
And why the Arabs will not turn off the spigots, whoever takes a seat in the White House.
Those of you who have read "The Seven Pillars of Wisdom" (T.E.Lawrence) or watched the movie – Lawrence of Arabia, may recall Lawrence's words to the assembled Sheiks representing many of the tribes. He told them what a great nation they could be if only they would stop fighting among themselves. He showed them what unity could do by leading them to many victories over a (then) modern, equipped Turkish army.
His words, as we all know, fell on deaf ears. Or, at least, were forgotten as soon as he left them. The Arab nations continually fight among themselves, and Israel, and the Israeli controlled West (what you haven't noticed that?), has continually exploited this.
2000 years ago, probably the first critic of Zionism ( no, not the Zionism that merely wants a right to live in a homeland), a Jew, himself, taught, among many things, the strength in unity. He illustrated it with the bundle of sticks, a story, in one version or another, you must all know -u pluribus Unum
Let me put it on record; I have a mixed religious, and political, background. I can accept all of them providing they have in their ideology a tolerance for others who may think differently. I have also lived, and worked, in many parts of the world, and have found, that deep down, we have all, more or less, the same hopes, desires, and fears.
No, unless a miraculous great wave of change comes over them, the Arabs will not turn off the oil. Nor will any great change in America's economy take place, whoever gets called Mr President – change, I mean, that would not have happened had his rival got in. Please note the last bit, because there will be change. Excesses have to be remedied sooner or later.
Don't get too excited if gold moves up a dollar or two. Gold has a part to play, and is playing it, but to shoot up at this stage is not in the agenda.
Then, here is something to think about. I assume that most of you have your stake in gold in mining shares. You may not see them rise that much, even though gold heads north a little. My reasoning, which you may challenge, is thus: Most of the movement would be caused by derivatives, as I explained before to those that have read my snippets, far more gold is being traded than physically demanded, or available, and has been for a long time.
Look at the present rise, and activity, in platinum and palladium. Then look at the rise in Stillwater Mining (SWC) of Montana, the largest palladium/platinum mining co outside Russia and South Africa, hardly a whimper, and way off its highs. Here again, though I haven't, in this case, checked the facts, I suspect that much of the activity is in paper.
Why, you may ask, is it not affecting the mining share price? I see one new ‘visitor’ to our site is wondering why Harmony has been going south. Here is a top-notch gold mining co that is well run, excellent CEO, unhedged, and everything going for it – yes it is growing, in spite of the price.
Here are some answers. The capitalisation of most of the mining companies is too small, not liquid enough, for the amount of money these hedge funds and institutions play with today, they prefer to use derivatives. They like a good wide exit with easy access, before they enter.
The smaller players have been weaned on excitement. They have no interest in fundamentals; they want something that moves – in the right direction; then a hopefully quick in and out. As the big money is not really in the mining sector, yet, there is no reason to use their networks in media to hype them up. Some may be acquiring little by little, as many companies, like Harmony, are becoming undervalued, but time is on their side, and with so little liquidity they wouldn't want to move the market against themselves. So, guys and gals, all you sitting, and hoping, you are going to need patience – lots of it.
Big money is fully aware that gold and its bedfellow silver are being held down for purely psychological reasons. So, they have been hedging themselves with Palladium and platinum (again, I strongly suspect, mostly in paper). The masses are not so familiar with, or sensitive to, the movement in these metals. As I have said, it is all psychological. Some of the most effective warfare is psychological – but then you knew that.
Well, that may not be a full explanation, nothing in the world of High Finance is ever clear cut and dried. There are so many interactions. But, it is a very basic scenario of the small area in which most of us within this discussion area are concerned.
We have to learn from our Chinese and Japanese friends – the art of patience. Gold mine shares may be ‘dogs’ at the moment, but remember – every dog has its day.
Have a great Thanksgiving, and when you tuck into that turkey, think of we Brits who made it all possible.
auspec
(11/22/2000; 8:23:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42004)
Bottom/Capitulation
This should be one heck of a tax loss selling season for mining shares. Heard from a credible source that a particular fund with resource shares to the tune of $300M MAY be capitulating/selling. Put in your stink bids folks and be the recipients of these gifts. On another note the recently completed New Orleans Conference drew all of 250 attendees, whereas it used to draw 3-4,000. A BOTTOM is in the air {not referring to the delusionAL one in this case}!
I am getting concerned---How much longer are we gonna have the lustrous metal on sale????
auspeciality
SteveH
(11/22/2000; 8:16:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 42003)
Al
No big deal. I still like your post. Two people wrote me and told me the quotes were not George's. That is all. I would have done the same thing.
So, how 'bout those redskins, eh?
JavaMan
(11/22/2000; 8:08:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 42002)
Al, don't be silly...
Journeyman is right. It is the message that is important, not the source.
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 8:08:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 42001)
corner the mkt.
in toilet paper until U.S. Dollar drops.
Cavan Man
(11/22/2000; 8:07:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 42000)
None
Happy Thanksgiving to all US and non-US Monetary Patriots.
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 8:00:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 41999)
no advice
watch this stock dfct, bought it @ .87
Journeyman
(11/22/2000; 7:56:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 41998)
No need to get drastic!! @Al Fulchino msg#: 41995
Hey Al!!
No need to get drastic here. I've been taken in by several information scams -- that's one reason I attempt to be very careful with my sources. But I'm sure before it's all over, I'll be had several more times.
It's a good thing it's not a tradition to leave as soon as we discover we made a mistake -- there'd be no one here!!
And Washington or not, they ARE good quotes.
Point being, hang around, we need ya!
Regards, j.
SHIFTY
(11/22/2000; 7:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 41997)
New Survivor show
Subject: New Survivor show
Network television is developing a "Texas Version"
of
"Survivor", the
popular TV show. Contestants must travel from
Amarillo
through Fort
Worth, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, through San
Marcos
and Lubbock,
back to Amarillo, driving a Volvo with a bumper
sticker
that reads:
"I'm for Gore, I'm Gay and I'm Here to Take Your
Guns".
The first to complete the round trip is the winner.
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 7:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 41996)
Serious side
Okay, did you hear about the man who had no arms or no legs?
Went up to this house and rang the bell and a woman comes to the door.
Looks down at him and says, "What do you want?"
He say, "I know what kinda house this is and I want to come in here."
She say, "You aint got no arms or no legs, What can you do?"
He say, "I rang the bell didn't I."
Al Fulchino
(11/22/2000; 6:48:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 41995)
Steve H/ quotations
Steve, If I end up being wrong on the quotes, I will honor the forum by leaving. There is no place in my life either for untruths. I could very well be guilty of not having the quotes correct. I do not know yet and am unlikely to be able to do any checking soon. So to all here, if I am wrong you have my apologies now. And I tell you all one last thing.
If they are NOT President Washingtons words, then I adopt them as my own. Insert my name in their place and I will go on being guilty of loving the cause.
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 6:31:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 41994)
Thanksgiving All!
S&P Futures are off sharply this morning -13.20. Looks as if the Bear Market slide is on again. Petroleum prices are down a bit more, but still well above recent prices. Au is up a mere $0.60, but that's OK, I still have plans to add to my position. I love this bargain basement prices!
There is talk that the Floriduh state legislature may consider impeachment proceedings against the 7 State Supreme Court justices because they over stepped their authority in taking on actions reserved for the Legislative and Executive branches. The Legislature is stacked in favor of the Republicans and replacements would likely be Republicans with Jeb Bush's stamp of approval.
Hey MK, Randy, all - The storefront looks pretty good! Wish I could afford a couple of Gold Doubloons this time around, but Xmas shopping tapped me out. Bummer! Cool gifts though. I'm off to get some Thanksgiving dinner item together. Got to take a couple of Canadian geese in orange marinade over to relatives for tomorrows "Chow Down." Then to devour charred turkey carcass and swill good brew - mixed with a bit of football. Back in a couple days, Happy Thanksgiving all - Cheers!
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 5:45:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 41993)
NEWS FLASH!
Dick Cheney just went into the hospital with chest pains.
ThaiGold
(11/22/2000; 5:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 41992)
Blessing in Disguise.?.
... It's The Economy Stupid ... It's the Stupid Economy ...
Most American Voters have tended to Vote their Pocketbooks
in previous elections. Invariably, they will hold their noses and
retain any scoundrel, so long as GoodTimes are upon us.
There's alot of evidence this time around, to indicate that. You
don't hear many people saying truly" good things" about Gore.
Yet he got a large vote. And will steal the rest, to elect himself
just to be sure.
But American voters are also a fickle lot. So when the market
house of cards soon crumbles, with the economy tailspinning
voraciously, he will be justly rewarded by history. And the
DemMachine Party will be dealt with in spades, next time.
By installing Gore, they are sealing their decimated fate.
Cheer up, Republicans and Independents... This could all work
itself out to be a Blessing in Disguise. I can hardly wait.
ThaiGold
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 5:11:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 41991)
LOL
Pygmies sitting on giants can see much farther.
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 4:45:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 41990)
A Little Break for Something on the Lighter Side!
WHAT NOT TO SAY TO A POLICE OFFICER!
1. I can't reach my license unless you hold my beer (OK in Texas)
2. Sorry, Officer, I didn't realize my radar detector wasn't plugged in.
3. Aren't you the guy from the Village People?
4. Hey, you must've been doin' about 125 mph to keep up with me. Good job!
5. Are You Andy or Barney?
6. I thought you had to be in relatively good physical condition to be a police officer.
7. You're not gonna check the trunk, are you?
8. I pay your salary!
9. Gee, Officer! That's terrific. The last officer only gave me a warning, too!
10. Do you know why you pulled me over? Okay, just so one of us does.
11. I was trying to keep up with traffic. Yes, I know there are no other cars around. That's how far ahead of me they are.
12. When the Officer says "Gee Son....Your eyes look red, have you been drinking?" You probably shouldn't respond with,"Gee Officer your eyes look glazed, have you been eating doughnuts?"
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 4:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 41989)
"Iraq starts illegal oil sales to Syria"
DUBAI (Reuters) - Iraq has begun pumping oil through a pipeline to Syria, outside the terms of the United Nations oil-for-food arrangement, in a renewed effort to break U.N. sanctions. A Syrian oil official said that the Iraq started pumping crude through the line, not used since 1982, last Thursday. "Iraq started pumping on November 16 and the flow is now up to about 150,000 barrels per day of Basrah Light," the official told Reuters by telephone from Damascus. Iraq earlier this month vowed to start selling crude to Syria in what diplomats said is part of a sustained effort by Baghdad to shake free of sanctions in place since its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Oil-for-food allows Iraq to sell as much crude as it likes in return for humanitarian goods as long as the revenues remain under strict U.N. control. Iraq"s customers pay direct into an escrow account in New York with 30 percent of the proceeds earmarked for Gulf War reparations. The United Nations in New York said it had not been notified by Iraq of the Syrian deliveries. Neither Baghdad nor Damascus officially confirmed the sales. Britain urged Syria to ensure that its Iraqi crude purchases were made legal under the terms of the United Nations oil-for-food exchange. "We need to see the pipeline open as a legal U.N. outlet under the oil-for-food program," said a Foreign Office spokesman. "This is an illegal contravention of sanctions. We are urging the Syrians that the sales be made legal under oil-for-food." The United States appears to have been caught out by the Iraqi move. Discussions with U.S. officials in Damascus last week had led Washington to believe that Syria would ensure payments were made through legal U.N. channels. Iraq recently has been running oil sales at capacity 2.3 million bpd and the U.N. says that deliveries outside the program will cut humanitarian aid under its program.
SYRIA MAY HIKE EXPORTS
Industry sources said Syria purchased the Iraqi crude at a discount to international prices for use in Syrian refineries, freeing the equivalent amount of its own Syrian Light for export. Iraq aimed eventually to stabilize the pipeline throughput at 200,000 bpd, the Syrian official said. Baghdad already is allowed to sell some oil direct to its neighbor Jordan outside the terms of oil-for-food. More is smuggled to Turkey by trucks. Iraq has raised a number of other issues with the United Nations on oil-for-food. They include the demand that buyers pay an extra 50 cents over official selling prices into an account outside U.N. control.'
Black Blade: Tsk Tsk, while the cat's away (or preoccupied with Floriduh elections), the mice (Saddam) will play. Oh what fun - if Gore-Lieberman get elected, then the ME turn off the oil spigot. If Bush-Cheney get elected, Junior gets to kiss Saddam's A** for oil. Ironic!
ThaiGold
(11/22/2000; 4:38:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 41988)
Europe Stock Markets MeltDown.?.
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2
European markets all in the red overnight.
Must be celebrating the Gore "victory".
It won't be long now.
Time for everyone to buy their Movie Tickets and make
their Dinner Reservations.
ThaiGold
(11/22/2000; 4:25:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 41987)
Calif NG / Elec Shortages
Attn: Black Blade (11/22/2000; 3:34:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 41984)
[quote]
Not to worry, it won't show up in the Core Rate CPI ;-)
[unquote]
... Priceless comment.!. What would we do without you.?.
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 4:06:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 41986)
"Natural gas, heating oil prices up on cold weather forecasts" by Bloomberg News
Inflation (stagflation?)is on it's way!
NEW YORK - Natural gas rose to a record and heating oil moved close to its highest price since 1979 on forecasts for colder-than-normal US weather at a time of low inventories of the heating fuels. Temperatures from the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Coast will be below normal through Friday, forecasters said. Cold weather now reduces the chance that inventories will increase. Natural gas supplies are down 9 percent from a year ago and heating oil stockpiles are down 31percent. ''We could see a real supply crisis in some pockets if this cold continues,'' said Jeffrey Foose, managing director of structured products trading at Public Service Energy Resources, a division of Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., parent company to New Jersey's largest utility. Natural gas for December delivery rose 14.9 cents, or 2.4 percent, to close at $6.249 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching $6.395, the highest price in 10 years of trading on the exchange. Prices have risen 39 percent this month on expectations that the cold spell would force homeowners to crank up their furnaces. Heating oil for December delivery rose 1.74 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $1.0962 a gallon on the Nymex, close to a 21-year high of $1.11 set on Oct. 12. Temperatures throughout the Northeast, the largest heating oil market, will be 10 degrees to 15 degrees below normal from tomorrow to Friday, Lexington, Mass.-based forecaster Weather Services Corp. said. Contributing to yesterday's gain in natural gas prices was increased demand from California power producers, which were running gas-fired generators to compensate for outages at two of the region's nuclear power plants, analysts said. The weather will stay cold in the eastern half of the United States all next week, the National Weather Service predicted yesterday. ''The cold weather forecast is going further out than it was'' last week, said Jim Van Alen, an energy analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. US homeowners will pay 44 percent more for heating gas this winter than last season because of higher prices and colder weather, the US Energy Department said last month. Heating oil bills will be 25 percent higher. ''A lot of people were betting (winter) would be a nonevent like the last years,'' PSEG's Foose said. ''We played all year in anticipation of this but for end users, the prices will be a shock.''...'
Black Blade: I'm gonna fire up the wood stove, put on a pot of chili, bake up some corn bread, pull a six pack of Moose Drool outta the snow drift, and stack my gold coins while the blizzard passes by. Brrrrrrrrrrr…..
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 3:59:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 41985)
"Oil Crises Feared if Prices Gyrate"
Source: Washington Post
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Nov. 20– Soaring demand for oil in the developing world and limited growth of petroleum supplies are likely to trigger severe global energy crises in coming years unless consuming countries and producers can stabilize the world oil market, both sides have agreed here. Breaking the boom-and-bust cycle in world energy prices is vital to encouraging the massive investment that will be required to meet future energy needs, officials from both sides said at a weekend global energy conference attended by representatives from 50 consumer and producer nations. China alone expects to have as many as 170 million more cars on its roads two decades from now. By conservative estimates, the proliferation of cars throughout the developing world will boost global oil consumption to 115 million barrels a day by 2020 from 76 million barrels today. World energy demand is expected to double by 2030 and quadruple by the end of the century. Meanwhile, the recent wild swings in international oil prices – which have climbed to around $35 a barrel today from $10 just two years ago – have left major oil companies reluctant to make the large-scale investments needed to meet future energy needs. "We could argue for a long time about which is worse, high prices or low, but in many ways it is the volatility of the swings from the highs to the lows and back again that is most dangerous to the market and the world economy," U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said in an interview. "World energy needs are growing too fast to tolerate the uncertainty this volatility brings." The amount of capital required to meet future demand could be staggering: The World Bank predicts that the growing energy needs of China and India alone will absorb $1.5 trillion in investment over the next 20 years. The U.S. government forecasts that energy sectors in the developing world will require up to $25 trillion of investment over the next half-century. Although oil companies have gained an enormous windfall from the recent surge in oil prices, executives say their companies are reluctant to sink large sums of money into drilling wells because of the risks that a sudden downturn in prices could jeopardize their returns. "The memories of the 1998 price crash are still pretty fresh in everyone's minds," Shell Oil Co. chief executive Steven Miller said. He predicted the major oil companies will act in a "very prudent manner" when it comes to gambling on further drilling investments in the Middle East. But their apprehensions, in turn, may produce future shortages that will perpetuate the unstable energy markets that often cause economic trouble. "We do not yet anticipate a global supply crunch, but getting these extra oil resources from Middle East countries onto the world market will require a lot of new investment to build up capacity," said Robert Priddle, executive director of the International Energy Agency. "This is an issue that we consider even more important than the resource base itself."...'
Black Blade: Lays it on the line.
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 3:34:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 41984)
Californians prepare to pay more for energy!
California struggles to keep power on
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
California is still struggling to keep the power on. With electricity reserves under 7%, the California Independent System Operator (ISO) called a Stage 1 emergency alert at 5:30 a.m. Monday as the state continues to flirt with power outages.
An ISO spokeswoman said about 12,000 Mw continues to be offline. Demand is expected to peak Monday at 32,416 Mw at 6 p.m. The state can only import about 8,000 Mw at one time. Wholesale electricity prices in the day-ahead
market peaked at $247/Mw-hr Monday, according to California Power Exchange, well above the seasonal average.
An ISO spokeswoman said imports were down substantially. The Palo Verde Unit 2 nuclear plant in Arizona, a major California supplier, went down unexpectedly over the weekend, taking 1200 Mw offline.
This is the second week in a row the ISO has called power emergencies. Last week gas prices soared to $8/Mcf, driven by increased demand for heating coupled with higher demand from natural gas-fired peaking plants.
Black Blade: This is only the tip of the iceberg as other areas around the country will demand more NG as we head into the winter season. Not to worry, it won't show up in the Core Rate CPI ;-)
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 3:30:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 41983)
Californians prepare to pay more for energy!
California struggles to keep power on
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
California is still struggling to keep the power on. With electricity reserves under 7%, the California Independent System Operator (ISO) called a Stage 1 emergency alert at 5:30 a.m. Monday as the state continues to flirt with power outages.
An ISO spokeswoman said about 12,000 Mw continues to be offline. Demand is expected to peak Monday at 32,416 Mw at 6 p.m. The state can only import about 8,000 Mw at one time. Wholesale electricity prices in the day-ahead
market peaked at $247/Mw-hr Monday, according to California Power Exchange, well above the seasonal average.
An ISO spokeswoman said imports were down substantially. The Palo Verde Unit 2 nuclear plant in Arizona, a major California supplier, went down unexpectedly over the weekend, taking 1200 Mw offline.
This is the second week in a row the ISO has called power emergencies. Last week gas prices soared to $8/Mcf, driven by increased demand for heating coupled with higher demand from natural gas-fired peaking plants.
Black Blade: This is only the tip of the iceberg as other areas around the country will demand more NG as we head into the winter season. Not to worry, it won't show up in the Core Rate CPI ;-)
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 3:27:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 41982)
JOE CAMEL WINS
Looks like joe will end up in the big house.
The camel won't like it.
Gold wins, end of story.
Peter Asher
(11/22/2000; 3:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 41981)
Vote of the market (And @ SteveH)
Now that the markets are properly evaluating a Gore Presidency, maybe the MOUs will take him out back and ----
Well, if I go back to sleep I can at least dream it.
Steve! that must have been your shout that woke me up, but by the time I got on line, it was over.
wolavka
(11/22/2000; 2:30:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 41980)
You can do it,, water boy
Dec gold big trend line 269.20 break it come on!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 1:32:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 41979)
It's not over until the Fat Lady sings, or until the Angel of Death walks by:
The Floriduh Supreme Court decision has opened another potential can of worms. The state legislature and senate (both have Republican Majorities) could clarify the law to read shall instead of may, thereby overturning the court decision. This could create a problem as it would have to be retroactive and that would be questionable. The legislature could declare the vote inconclusive and could therefore elect their own slate of electors to the electoral college (as per an obscure 1948 federal law). This court decision means that the Sec. Of State Kathleen Harris could demand that all absentee ballots be counted as per the directive and if those ballots are not included by Nov. 26th, then she could refuse to certify the count. Oh Boy, this is getting fun!
After all, it probably won't matter who gets to be king. Every 20 years they tend to bite the bullet anyway. The following died in office, followed by year elected and cause:
Harrison 1840 Died of pneumonia
Lincoln 1860 Assassinated in Ford Theater by John Wilkes Booth an actor. Besides the play blew chunks.
Garfield 1880 Assassinated
McKinley 1900 Assassinated
Harding 1920 Bad Ticker – Heart attack
Roosevelt 1940 Cerebral Hemorrhage – his brain was full!
Kennedy 1960 Assassinated
Reagan 1980 Survived assassination attempt but was never the same afterward.
Gore/Bush 2000 – and these guys really want to be elected!
SHIFTY
(11/22/2000; 1:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 41978)
PorterSweden
Welcome Sir PorterSweden : I own some Harmony Gold Mining and I like it. We just need the gold price to move up .
As far as risk goes : I own physical gold and silver and sleep just fine.
$hifty
SteveH
(11/22/2000; 1:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 41977)
Peter, Gandalph...time to pay attention...
Gold is rising, now up $1.80.
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 1:08:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 41976)
Look at the Markets Now
Now that the Floriduh Supreme Court has announced it's decision, look at the markets. Japan and Hong Kong down sharply, S&P Futures down -7.20, and even gold has a nice bounce +1.60. Oil is off slightly, but when the markets open oil could rise sharply as well. The prospect of a Gore-Lieberman administration will turn off the Arab oil spigot.
API Review: Crude, Products Tumble as Stockpiles Rise
Nov. 21-MAR--
--NY Jan crude down 26c as API stocks surge 6.435 mln barrels
--NY heating oil down 61 points on surprising API stock rise
--NY Dec gasoline down 226 points on surprising stockpile rise
--API: US crude stocks up 6.435 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US distillate stocks up 65,000 barrels in latest week
--API: US refineries operate at 92.7% in latest wk vs 93.1%
--API: US gasoline stocks up 458,000 barrels in latest week
--APIs imply US gasoline demand 8.66 mln bpd vs 8.17 mln
--APIs imply US distillate demand 3.88 mln bpd vs 4.30 mln
By Karyn Peterson and John Troland, BridgeNews
New York--Nov. 21--NYMEX nearby energy futures tumbled in overnight Access trading as American Petroleum Institute data showed a shocking surge of 6.435 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles last week, while distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose 65,000 barrels and gasoline stocks rose 458,000 barrels. All petroleum stockpiles were expected to have fallen.
API also reported that U.S. refinery utilization rates declined by 0.4 a basis point, contrary to expectations for runs to have gained 0.5-0.9 a point. At 1650 ET, NYMEX nearby Jan WTI crude was down 36 cents at $34.80 a barrel, while nearby Dec heating oil was down 116 points at $1.0825 a gallon and nearby Dec gasoline was down 51 points at 91.15c a gallon. The data are for the week ended Friday, Nov. 17. The U.S. Department of Energy will release its weekly inventory data on Thursday after 0900 ET.
CRUDE: Up 6.435 million barrels
Most brokers and traders had expected crude oil stockpiles to decline by 0.5 to 0.9 million barrels despite strong anticipated import levels. Import levels did rise slightly while input to crude distillation declined, helping stocks gain. However, the numbers "make no sense at all," as one broker put it. "Crude imports rose only 9,000 bpd from the previous week's 8.131 million bpd, while crude runs were down 72,000 bpd to 15.349 million bpd," the broker said, noting that the raw data suggests crude inventories should have risen less than 600,000 barrels. A few brokers and analysts concurred, attributing the rise to another internal adjustment in the API data.
The largest rise in crude inventories, 3.281 million barrels, was recorded on the Gulf Coast. One source suggested that the reason imports were down while inventories rose in the U.S. Gulf was that crude released by the Department of Energy is temporarily replacing foreign barrels. In the Midwest, which includes the NYMEX delivery point for sweet crude futures at the Cushing, Okla., pipeline hub, crude inventories rose a huge 1.824 million barrels. The gain caused the year-to-year deficit in the Midwest to narrow to 5.1 million barrels, from the previous week's 8.3 million barrels. Crude inventories were also up on the West Coast, which posted a rise of 818,000 barrels. The gains helped the year-to-year deficit in total
crude stockpiles to narrow to 16.3 million barrels, from 24.8 million barrels the prior week. The only decline in inventories was on the East Coast, where stocks fell a slight 121,000 barrels.
GASOLINE: Up 458,000 barrels
Gasoline stocks were expected to decline by 1.0-1.4 million barrels due to an anticipated correction in at least a portion of the previous week's data, as well as stronger demand that would likely overshadow higher imports. In fact, the previous week's domestic production figure for gasoline was revised down to 8.348 million barrels per day from 8.487 million bpd; thus, output for last week technically rose by 52,000 barrels, to 8.400 million bpd. At the same time, gasoline import levels rose slightly to 328,000 bpd, from 311,000 bpd the previous week. Gasoline inventories rose in all regions except the U.S. Gulf, the major refining center for the nation, where they fell by 605,000 barrels. Stocks rose the most, by 466,000 barrels, on the East Coast, followed by a 424,000-barrel rise in the Midwest and an 111,000-barrel rise in the Rocky Mountain region. But regardless of the gains, the year-to-year surplus in total stocks narrowed to 1.317 million barrels, from 3.592 million barrels the prior week. Demand for driving fuels, as implied by the data, rose to 8.66 million bpd, from 8.17 million bpd the previous week.
DISTILLATES: Up 65,000 barrels
Distillate stocks were expected to have dropped 0.5-0.9 million barrels last week due to strong demand and lower imports. But while import levels were down by 228,000 bpd, demand, as implied by the data, dropped 420,000 bpd to 3.88 million bpd, from 4.30 million bpd the previous week. That overshadowed a drop in production of distillate fuels by 181,000 bpd to 3.708 million bpd, from the previous week's 3.889-million-bpd level. Distillate supplies rose on the East Coast for the fourth consecutive week, posting a gain of 701,000 barrels, the most of any region. East Coast stocks now stand at 18.6 million barrels, about 31% below 1999 levels. Stocks also rose slightly, 239,000 barrels, in the Rocky Mountain region. Those gains helped mitigate declines elsewhere, as distillate stockpiles fell modestly on the Gulf Coast, the West Coast and the Midwest. The gains also narrowed the year-to-year deficit in total stockpiles, to 15.818 million barrels, from 19.365 million barrels the previous week.
REFINERIES: Down 0.4% points
Refinery operations unexpectedly fell 0.4 a basis point, although the declines were led by a whopping 3.9-point drop in the generally unrepresentative West Coast region, which is typically ignored by traders east of the Rocky Mountains. Runs fell in only one other region, the East Coast, which posted a drop of 0.6 a basis point. Midwest runs, meanwhile, rose 1.2 points, in line with the anticipated returning to service of several units, while U.S. Gulf runs rose 0.1 a point and Rocky Mountain runs rose 1.5 points. Total U.S. refinery runs now stand 2.1 points above year-ago levels, for the week ended Nov. 19, 1999, when rates totaled only 90.6%
Black Blade: For what would normally be perceived as bearish news for oil. The POO has not really dropped much and is still above $35.00/bbl. The increase in crude appears to be confined to the DOE release of SPR that is held in inventory, probably prior to shipment to Europe to meet earlier commitments.
Topaz
(11/22/2000; 1:05:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 41975)
Gandalf the White (11/21/00; 22:35:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 41966)
That nett 75 Ton reduction in official holdings (the bulk of which was off-market) amounts to roughly what our Reserve Bank is "standing ready to waste" on Forex intervention overnight. Duh! (speculation of course - <wink>)
Black Blade
(11/22/2000; 0:46:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 41974)
RE: PorterSweden #41930
PorterSweden (11/21/00; 13:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 41930)
Harmony Gold Mining / Question.
Gentlemen, this is my first post at your forum, which I have been following closely during the last year. I am impressed by your high standards and want to express my great gratitude.
HARMONY Gold Mining [HGMCY], being unhedged, has been mentioned here as a promising investment alternative. This company is trading at US$3.50, show earnings estimates for the present year at above US$1.00, paid dividend this fall at 20 cents (5.7% return), has mining reserves and resources that could last a century. Is this low price indicative of High Risk and if so, what risks may I have overlooked? Political?
PorterSweden
Black Blade: First of all I welcome you to the Round Table. On your question about HGMCY and risk. First of all, owning physical negates the risk part of the equation. That said, Harmony is arguably the most profitable gold mining company bar none, regardless of the claims from the pro-Barrick crowd. Goldfields is a close second. They are both unhedged as a matter of company policy. HGMCY has a p/e of about 6.5 which is trully amazing in the current anti-gold environment. Both HGMCY and GOLD pay out decent dividends. SA is more politically stable than one would think with the current crisis in neighboring Zimbabwe. The problem in Zim is that they have a certifiably insane dictator with the title president who ignores even the supreme court and his own advisors. In SA there is no such problem as even the marxist ANC realize that they need to cooperate with the mining industry for the benefit of all. Besides, if any severe political crisis were to materialize, I'm sure that a lot of whites and colored would retrieve their hidden firearms and along with Butelesi and his Zulu peoples would assert themselves through force if necessary. I don't see that there is much to be concerned about as most of the ANC leadership has moderated over the years and have eschewed their Marxist leanings. Afyter all, everybody loves money, right? ;-)
Topaz
(11/22/2000; 0:44:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 41973)
Saddams Boys
Had a quiet chuckle to myself last Night watching the late News - Saddam Hussien's 2 Million strong armed forces were parading in support of the Palestinians and marching across a carpet of US Dollars. - Gee they hate you Guyz!
SteveH
(11/22/2000; 0:21:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 41972)
Retraction
http://www.saf.org/BogusQuotesFounders.html
The HOF nomination must be put on hold till this is resolved re: incorrect quotes.
a respost:
Unfortunately, virtually all - if not every one - of the alleged
'Washington quotes' are not documented as ever having been uttered or
written by Washington, at least not the 'Father of our county'
Washington. A little research would have shown this with relative ease.
They are, much like the infamous Hitler and Sarah Brady quotes, of
unknown origin, and, in all likelihood, were completely fabricated by
persons who love the cause more than they love the truth. The truth
should be loved above all else.
Don't believe everything you read, folks. Not even from people who use
maxims like 'don't believe everything you read'.
Regards,
Tim
Peter Asher
(11/22/2000; 0:14:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 41971)
Will this apply to the Military ballots?
>>>``The right of the people to cast their votes is the paramount concern overriding all others,'' the
judgement said.<<<<
Or will these 'Judicilators' pass a law that says otherwise?
Peter Asher
(11/22/2000; 0:09:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 41970)
Interpretation by a Non-lawyer
>>>>> the Florida Supreme Court cited a ruling by another court that ``voters
should not be disenfranchised where their intent may be ascertained with reasonable certainty,
simply because the chad they punched did not completely dislodge from the ballot''. <<<<
Note the words "completly dislodge." That describes 'partialy dislodged' and would preclude 'not-at-all dislodged' as in "Dimpled."
Topaz
(11/22/2000; 0:07:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 41969)
er....Gold!
Well, it's taken 20 odd years to move the bulk of World Bullion into "acceptable" hands (Drug dealers, Despots and Dictators need not apply) and one would think it's high time for a price rebound.
Good to see the Euro and Oil mentioned in the same sentence by a growing number of Global movers and shakers lately---baby steps--- whats good for the big E is good for Gold.
The Aussie bleeder is coming under increasing pressure and this does not augur well for the Au producers here. We'll probably see (RB-A Governor) Mc Farlaine and Co blowing another 3/4 Billion or so o/nite in a futile attempt to stop the rot. They would do well to re-read their charter, especially the part that relates to "acting in the best interests of Australia".
As Aust is No 3 Au producer and the $A and Au have historically marched in lockstep, a strategic purchase of Bullion with the aforementioned 3/4 Bil would put the cat amongst the Pidgeons wot!
Dream-on Topaz!
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