All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
mikal (3/2/07; 23:55:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 152927)
Dollar not easily understood
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17424866/
U.S. investors, meet the rest of the world - Stocks & Economy - MSNBC.com - AP - March 2, 2007
This article advocates for, or at least expects Fed easing, lower interest rates as a means of supporting the stock markets.
But in closing, it maintains that the yen carry had a large role in the global stock selloff and that the yen will continue to rise and the dollar to fall.
So lowering rates wouldn't work for stocks either way.
A catch 22 right under the author's nose.
mikal (3/2/07; 23:43:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 152926)
@Goldilox
"Go EAST, young man." ;)
Goldilox (3/2/07; 23:31:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 152925)
Lunar Eclipse
Best viewing is a couple hours east of the GMT time zone, so most of the US will miss this. Should be quite nice in Rome or Athens.
It occurs from Noon to 4PM PST.
mikal (3/2/07; 23:28:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 152924)
Derivatives doo doo
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=azrxhCZbHMLk&refer=exclusive
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merril Lynch Almost 'Junk' Their Own Traders Say | Bloomberg.com: Exclusive - March 02
mikal (3/2/07; 23:14:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 152923)
Eclipse in N.America info
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/space/03/02/lunar.eclipse.ap/index.html?eref=rss_world
Total lunar eclipse Saturday night - CNN.com - Mar 02, 07
A short one mainly for the N.American experience, with times in EST and other specifics. Enjoy.
mikal (3/2/07; 23:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 152922)
More on Saturday's eclipse
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6411991.stm
Eclipse set to be 'best in years' | BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | March 2, 2007
Details such as when, where the best view is seen(map included) & stages of eclipse.
mikal (3/2/07; 22:50:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 152921)
World begins asking "Anybody home"?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070303/pl_nm/bush_veterans_dc
Army secretary removed amid veterans' scandal
Kristin Roberts - Reuters - Feb 02, 2007 Yahoo! News
The reputation of the dollar takes another blow
mikal (3/2/07; 22:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 152920)
Subject or object- which comes first? Both. And neither.
I said JS has an "objective approach". I did forget to add that sometimes he is subjective- I don't agree with everything JS writes or speaks when he appears on the tele(such as the Bloomberg tv interview), on radio, etc.
Over time though, our views have merged like many bulls
and web surfers, lurkers, posters, chatters etc.
In this day and age, as Peter Schiff just recently commented, there has been information evolutions, internet revolutions and communication transfers unprecedented and unstoppable.
As difficult as it is for us all to come to terms with, everyone must have their own
unique, completely subjective vantage point from which to assess the world and it's
most puzzling aspects, such as the gold market- so that the seed of our lives remain vibrant and fresh, not barren and infertile- within the mutual parameters of objectivity, this place we call ego, self, me.
Subject or object- which comes first?
Neither and both.
"There is nothing new under the sun."
In the final analysis, we are one. All things go out from HIM and return thereto.
mikal (3/2/07; 22:01:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 152919)
We are the bulls
http://www.jsmineset.com
Chris Powell and myself are not the only ones that
value the opinions, advice and humor of James Sinclair.
I must say he is one of the few that can approach gold and relevant world events objectively, from multiple perspectives and disciplines, and articulate it freely, clearly and casually.
With such fresh developments an essentially daily routine
it frames his unique approach to gold commentary and it's very special place in a fast-changing world.
"Market Summary", gold and silver analysis, currencies, and much more (even linked through a GATA dispatch Friday): http://www.jsmineset.com
mikal (3/2/07; 20:46:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 152918)
@Chris Powell
http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/1172872793.php
Thanks for the GATA dispatch linking to Peter Grandich
Grandich Letter Special Alert - Goldseek - 02-02-07 4 pm ET
Silver Fox (3/2/07; 20:04:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 152917)
Hahaha
Are you watching the POG & POS?
The "insiders" are really on a roll this week.
Sooner or later, their transaction will be in the "light".
Talk about a buying oppurtunity!!!
SF
TownCrier (3/2/07; 19:09:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 152916)
Paper Avalanche,
Very frankly, I'm embarrassed to admit that I really don't know. In all things, it's ultimately MK's call. Maybe he's nearby and can chime in.
R.
GOLD FINGER (3/2/07; 19:02:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 152915)
TGIF and gold is a bargin!!
Wow,
Great weekend to plan my gold purchases...it's a deal!!
Take this oppertunity when this is low to stock up!
GF
Paper Avalanche (3/2/07; 18:56:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 152914)
Can I post a link to Jim Turk's commentary and graph?
Randy, MK or Admin,
I want to make that I don't break a forum rule.
His graph this week puts it all in perspective.
Please advise.
PA
TownCrier (3/2/07; 18:42:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 152913)
Paulson -- Markets Don't Always Represent Economic Fundamentals
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17425026
In an interview with National Public Radio, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said,
"For at least as long as I have been looking at markets, there is volatility in markets."
"Markets at any one time don't necessarily reflect the economic fundamentals in markets - certainly you don't move in a straight line one way or the other forever."
"So as long as you have markets, you're going to have volatility."
Paulson said the United States was "really pressing" China to move forward with financial market reforms to enable markets to determine the valuation of the yuan currency.
"We would like their currency to appreciate. We would like it to more adequately reflect the economic fundamentals."
^___(from url)___^
Do you REALLY want to be holding dollars as your long-term form of savings when U.S. monetary authorities are openly and actively pressing for the dollar to beceome relatively weaker?
Tangibles are where it's at. Choose gold. As a reliable source of ready, liquid funds, this week it is simply doing its job for those wrong-footed folks that are being massively squeezed for cash from one direction or another.
smiles45 (3/2/07; 18:33:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 152912)
Total Net Commercial Shorts Up thru Tuesday-Good or Bad?
321gold.com
Comatose, I think this week's gold COT report is highly misleading. Let me explain. Thru Tuesday the Commercial total net shorts stood at -194,000.(321Gold Hot COTs)
Normally that would be a signpost showing the trade feels a market down turn is iminent(but not). It takes weeks for them to build up their position. The net Big speculators (read hedge funds) added 10,600 contracts for a total of +149,000.
The worrying part is the trade had perfect cover story by the Tuesday delayed statistics which is always case. Wed thru Friday the Comex traded 353,000 contracts (very large volume).The POG ranged on those days $680 down to a close of $642 almost a $40.
My point is these Commercials buy on dips and sell rallies and it is virtually impossible that their selling continued thru Wed-Fri. In my experience a 3 day volume move like that would generate anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 contracts being covered each day. This would drop net shorts to aproximately to -140,000. The inclusion of next Monday & Tuesday's figures could include (assuming the market is lower and hedge funds sell as they always do on selloffs)an additional 20,000 to 40,000 lower shorts to the 100,000 total net short area.
The Commercials have about a 70,000 fixed(never below) short hedge positions for miner's (this figure has been relatively constant lately). This would mean that with an additional covering of 30-50,000 shorts Wed-Fri next the POG correction could culminate. But from what price everyone is asking?
Tradionally, POG stops at about the 200 day EMA(expotential moving average) or somewhere in between the 200 & 300EMAs.
The 200EMA is currently $620 & the 300EMA at $600. I feel somewhere in between POG will bottom $610-$615.
The RSI should be 35 or below(under 30 best), a MacD at -0-to -5 area,a CCI -300 to -400, an ROC -15 to -20, and most importantly an Aroons # should be near -95 to -100( -100 is best). So far the indicators have dropped nicely towards those targets./Peter
TownCrier (3/2/07; 18:30:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 152911)
Paulson says ... volatility a facet of markets
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070302/bs_afp/useconomystocks
WASHINGTON (AFP) - US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that the global and US economies were "strong" and that volatility is a facet of stock markets following heavy losses on Wall Street.
Paulson, in an interview with National Public Radio, said the US economy was shifting gears into a more sustainable pace of growth.
He spoke as a fresh wave of selling hit Wall Street Friday afternoon as economic concerns resurfaced and investors retrenched ahead of the weekend break.
It marked the third day of losses in the past four sessions and followed Tuesday's global stock rout which triggered the worst slump in US shares since the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terror attacks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down a hefty 120.24 points as investors remained nervous over US economic growth.
^___(from url)___^
The lesson here is that metal volatility is not unique. Stock investors are feeling some pinches, too.
R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report (3/2/07; 18:19:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 152910)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.
If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.
FRIDAY Market Excerpts
Gold sold to raise cash for other market losses
March 2 (Reuters) -- The global flight from risk knocked gold and silver hard for a third straight day on Friday, with bullion falling below $640 an ounce for the first time in 1-1/2 months as funds and currency investors cashed out on precious metals to pay for losses in other markets.
Many investment funds were seen to have bought commodities, including gold, over the past month with the proceeds from stocks as Wall Street reached record highs last month.
The COMEX April gold futures contract settled down $21.00, or 3.2 percent, at $644.10, after bottoming at $641.30, a 1-1/2-month low. It hit a session high of $668.20.
Carry trades, in which investors use low-yielding currencies like the yen as a cheap source of funds to buy higher-yielding currencies and assets, were largely to blame for Friday's sell-out in gold futures, analysts said.
This is because the yen rose to an 11-week high versus the dollar, and currency traders needed to close out their positions in gold futures to unwind bets on riskier assets that were financed by borrowing the Japanese currency.
"It seems that traders that are in the carry trade are obviously continuing their mass exodus. The money is coming out of gold and silver, mostly futures, where many of the carry traders have used gold and silver to park some of their carry trade profits," said Phil Flynn, vice president and senior market analyst at Alaron Trading.
James Steel, analyst at HSBC, said that general weakness in the emerging markets was a big factor in gold's decline. "Near term, I am still a little bearish. But I think it's going to be fundamentally very attractive quite soon. We will have to see how much further the correction has got to go."
Gold is often used by investors as a safe haven in times of financial uncertainties, but analysts said that this time funds opted for cash and to pay off losses because of the equities rout.
"It's one thing for people to run around and say it's a great diversifier and a safe haven to all the risks. But the fact is, when things start going bad, people tend to liquidate their gold holdings in order to pay for the bad stuff," said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals at ScotiaMocatta.
"When equity markets start going down badly in particular, and people start getting calls for margins, gold seems to be one of the first things that people liquidate in order to raise cash to pay for losses on other products," Hunter said.
---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---
Cometose (3/2/07; 17:38:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 152909)
COT
For options and futures for the the week the Commercials
in SIlver were net short 10000 contracts
in COpper were net short 1600 contracts
in GOld were net short 14000 contracts
Titan (3/2/07; 16:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 152908)
685 to 640 in a week
I know there are reasons why the POG did what it did this week. But it's hard not to be a little blue about seeing it back below 650 again when it was on such a nice upward path! Well, I guess we just get to watch it start climbing up again. Here we come, 700... 800...
TownCrier (3/2/07; 16:19:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 152907)
Jonathan Kosares covered the bases back in October. Did you read it?
http://www.usagold.com/analysis/j-kosares-20061017.html
Gold market volatility: Has it changed the fundamental reasons for physical gold ownership?
(J. Kosares 10/17) -- Volatility in the gold market is here to stay. Thus far in 2006 gold has been as low as $525 and as high as $725, sometimes changing $50 or more in a single week.
Friday, October 13th's price rise of $12 marks the 50th day this year that gold has moved more than $10 in a single day in either direction.
By comparison, only nine days in all of 2005 showed moves of more than $10, and all nine occurred in the last three months of the year.
This essay offers one possible explanation for this erratic price movement related to the rapid growth of hedge funds and their investment tactics, and also speaks to the mounting systemic risk if these practices continue to proliferate...
^___(click URL to read the full text)___^
R.
TownCrier (3/2/07; 16:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 152906)
Yesterday's DMR explained it best of all
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.html
The report indicated that jitters set in and gold was hit, along with other financial markets, triggered by the biggest drop in China's main stock index in a decade.
Now here's the key part. Reuters quoted Stephen Briggs, analyst at SGCIB, who said, "Sentiment toward gold is still bullish, what happened this week is a blip, it coincided with a period when gold needed a consolidation period."
Sentiment toward gold is still bullish,
what happened this week is a blip,
it coincided with a period when gold needed a consolidation period.
what happened this week is a blip...
it COINCIDED with a PERIOD when gold NEEDED a CONSOLIDATION period.
Period. Exclamation point.
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
And indeed, if you look at the page of charts at the URL above, focus especially on the long term charts -- the 1-yr, the 5-yr and the 20-yr charts -- and you'll see that there is NOTHING out of the ordinary about this latest price retracement; it fits in perfectly with the established pattern.
A burger and fries with a beer: $12.50
A gold British sovereign: $176
An accurate 'big picture' perspective: Priceless
R.
Paper Avalanche (3/2/07; 15:43:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 152905)
@ Flow5
Ditto on what Sierra said.
Thank you for the amount of effort that you put into your posts.
PA
Quixote (3/2/07; 15:32:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 152904)
thank you comex!
because it stands as the price-discovery market for all general forms of gold, the paper sellers in the gold futures pits are making it painless for those of us who are exiting the stock market and wanting to move into the better security of metal at this time.
thank you comex. and thanks also for all the other forms of paper gold that reduce the actual competition from ever reaching metal's doorstep. thank you!
and sincerely thank you forum for the education!
Sierra Madre (3/2/07; 15:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 152903)
Flow5: your quotes from late last month...
Well, congratulations, you were right about the fall. You connect it to the fall in required reserves, if I got it right - as I recall, from about $209 bil to about $90 bil.
Your predictions were correct about gold setting up for a fall. Credit where credit is due.
Interesting that you said this corection will endure to mid-March.
Now, could you PLEASE explain - as if you were talking to a twelve-year-old - WHY money flows had to affect gold the way they did? And WHY bonds rallied?
I am genuinely interested, but somewhat slow on the uptake.
SIERRA
Goldilox (3/2/07; 14:28:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 152902)
fit to print?
mikal,
I called and emailed every San Diego news outlet when the Amaranth story broke, to see who was covering the major losses by the County Employees Union Retirement Fund.
The excuse I got was "It doesn't affect enough of our viewers."
How many of their viewers are affected by the Circus Court proceedings on where Anna Nichole Smith's body is buried?
Major Claptrap and Infotainment!
Goldilox (3/2/07; 14:24:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 152901)
"It's all OPEC's fault."
@ Flow5,
Anyone "following the money" knows that the largest "royalty" paid any OPEC nation is 15% to the Saudis. The other 85% goes directly to the oil companies for their costs, logistics, and profit.
Filled up mike bike with premium yesterday for $3.26 /gal at the local cut-rate station. Now that the Oil Czars have experienced losses in the elections, they are not the least bit shy about gouging all the people who voted against their princes and princesses.
flow5 (3/2/07; 14:19:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 152900)
Monetary Flows (MVt)
The transactions concept of money velocity (Vt) has its roots in Irving Fischer's equation of exchange (PT = MV), where (1) M equals the volume of means-of-payment money; (2) V, the rate of turnover of this money; (3) T, the volume of transactions units. The "econometric" people don't like the equation because it is impossible to calculate P and T. Presumably therefore the equation lacks validity. Actually the equation is a truism – to sell 100 bushels of wheat (T) at $4 a bushel (P) requires the exchange of $400 (M) once (V), or $200 twice, etc.
The real impact of monetary demand on the prices of goods and serves requires the analysis of "monetary flows", and the only valid velocity figure in calculating monetary flows is Vt. Income velocity (Vi) is a contrived figure (Vi = Nominal GDP/M). The product of MVI is obviously nominal GDP. So where does that leave us? In an economic sea without a rudder or an anchor. A rise in nominal GDP can be the result of (1) an increased rate of monetary flows (MVt) (which by definition the Keynesians have excluded from their analysis), (2) an increase in real GDP, (3) an increasing number of housewives selling their labor in the marketplace, etc. The income velocity approach obviously provides no tool by which we can dissect and explain the inflation process. Income velocity is used in the Fed's model, the model responsible for our roller coaster economy.
To the Keynesians, aggregate demand is nominal GDP, the demand for serves (human) and final goods. This concept excludes the common sense conclusion that the inflation process begins at the beginning (with raw material prices and processing costs at all stages of production) and continues through to the end.
Admittedly the data for Vt are flowed. So are nearly all economic statistics, but that does not preclude us from using them. An educated estimate is better than no estimate at all. For example, we know that the international balance of payments balances – debits equal credits, payments equal receipts, etc. The Department of Commerce statistics do not prove this, so in order to make their statistics balance, they put in an "errors and omission "balance figure. The triumph of good theory over inadequate facts.
The Fed first calculated deposit turnover in 1919. It reported weekly until 1941 (like M3, the series was also discontinued, in Oct. 1996). The figure "other banks’’ was used until 1996. Prior to this revision Vt included all banks located in 232 SMSA's excluding N.Y. City. This was the best that could be done to eliminate the influence on prices of purely financial and speculative transactions. Obviously funds used for short selling do not contribute to a rise in prices. The Fed calculates these velocity figures by dividing the aggregate volume of debits of these banks against their demand deposits.
In calculating the flow of funds (MVt), I am assuming that the Vt figure calculated by the Fed is not only representative all commercial banks in the United States, but that the velocity of currency is the same as for demand deposits. Is this valid? Nobody knows. But we do know that to ignore the aggregate effect of money flows on prices is to ignore the inflation process. And to dismiss the concept of Vt by saying it is meaningless (that people can only spend their income once) is to ignore the fact that Vt is a function of three factors: (1) the number of transactions; (2) the prices of goods and services; (3) the volume of M. Inflation analysis cannot be limited to the volume of wages and salaries spent. To do so is to overlook the principal "engine" of inflation - which is of course, the volume of credit (new money) created by the Reserve and the commercial banks, plus the expenditure rate (velocity) of these funds. Also overlooked is the effect of the expenditure of the savings of the non-bank public on prices. The (MVt) figure encompasses the total effect of all these money flows.
Some people prefer the devil theory of inflation: "It's all OPEC's fault." This approach ignores the fact that the evidence of inflation is represented by actual prices in the marketplace. The administered prices of OPEC would not be the actual market prices were they not "validated" by (MVt)
flow5 (3/2/07; 14:14:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 152899)
A forward look
Golds Course 2/22/07
Stagflation is on the horizon. The stock market is vulnerable.
Gold will retrace until the middle of March.
Gold will then rebound.
Central Bankers cannot fix golds price.
Golds allure overrides its intrinsic value.
Suckers Rally 2/26/07
If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm. The drop in member commercial bank adjusted "free" legal reserves is unprecedented
Everything is copasetic. This retracement is identical to what happend on Black Monday 1987.
First, there is no one on this earth that understands money & central banking. That includes me.
But some people can lose money even if the get tommorrows WSJ today. Everyone pursues their own interests. And everybody has something important to say. I can't think of everything, so I like to read other peoples view points.
I gave you something worth billions. No one else understands, nor is aware of, or believes in the concept of monetary flows (MVt) And since I discovered it, I've never lost any money in gold nor in bonds in 30 + years. I'm not too good in oil, or currencies though.
I'll leave your sanctuary alone.
Just one more thing....
Thoreauly (3/2/07; 13:53:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 152898)
@ Goldi re: Darkside
I particularly liked his absolute dismissal of the mainstream financial media. After all, what incentive do they have to publish the truth, when doing so will only crash the economy and send their advertisers fleeing?
And yes, the FOREX the unholy trinity of fractional resserve banking and trading.
And the bigger the bubble gets . . .
mikal (3/2/07; 13:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 152897)
@Goldilox
Re: "The shills are out in force"
- Think of the mastheads that many of the large papers around the world pride themselves on. The motto part, like "All the news that's fit to print" or the "Mission Statement": "Our purpose...", "We promise...", etc.
They should all at least contain this disclaimer: "May the shill be with you."
Goldilox (3/2/07; 13:26:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 152896)
Gold's Safe Haven "tested"
@ Mikal,
Totally "yellow press" journalism. Gold had gained over 13% in two months and gave back about half of those gains, and that brings its safe-haven status into question?
My Gawd, what claptrap! The shills are out in force, but then again, they are referring to the "losses" incurred by paper-gold holders much more so than physical advocates.
mikal (3/2/07; 12:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 152895)
By the light of the...golden moon
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/03/01/neclipse01.xml
All eyes on eclipse of the Moon
By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
Last Updated: 2:28am GMT 02/03/2007
Snippits:
"If the sky is clear on Saturday night the first total eclipse of the Moon for three years should be visible.
The Moon will appear a shade of brown, coppery-red or orange, an effect that will be visible from all continents.
During the period of totality, from 10.24pm to 11.58pm, the Moon will only be illuminated by light filtered through the Earth's atmosphere.
Its precise appearance depends on the amount of dust in the atmosphere: following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1992, which released large amounts of volcanic ash, the eclipsed Moon was nearly invisible.
As the Earth has not had a major eruption for some years "we can expect an impressive sight", said Ian Morison of the University of Manchester's Jodrell Bank Observatory...
Such an eclipse described in the Bible as the Moon "turned to blood" helped scientists to fix the date of the Crucifixion as Friday, April 3, AD 33."
Mikal--Looking for portents? This eclipse should put on a special show if clouds don't obscure it.
Historic correlations with astronomical events are
often called 'portents' or 'omens'.
But this eclipse may also herald a marvel.
Topaz (3/2/07; 12:10:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 152894)
Down AND out!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold:$silver&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
It's one thing to wake up to another down day in virtual metals (ho-hum) ...it's a complete mystery though, in an Ag delivery mth, why the G-S Ratio is backpeddling.
The RSI 30 got me again (it's becoming a far too reliable turn indicator imo and will fail on the next visit) ...surely we'll come back with a vengance next week.
mikal (3/2/07; 12:03:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 152893)
Next article
http://www.newspress.com/Top/Article/article.jsp?Section=BUSINESS&ID=564974468129423377
Gold's safe-haven status put to test on recent stock scare
LISA YURIKO THOMAS
March 2, 2007 10:08 AM
Dow Jones Newswires - LONDON (Dow Jones/AP)
mikal (3/2/07; 12:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 152892)
Opinions vary on gold market
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-prices-drop-pace-over/story.aspx?guid=%7BF9467C75%2D1D43%2D499A%2DB349%2D16C878D25E3C%7D
Gold's steep sell-off was exaggerated by heavy short selling. But numerous factors point towards gold's inclination to rapidly make up for lost time - surprises now will come only on the upside IMHO.
Opinions vary.
But all in all the following two articles, though dead wrong in such places as some assertions by Nadler and Gartman, should help fill any voids of understanding just what I'm saying:
Gold prices drop, on pace for an over $40 weekly loss
Marketwatch - 03-02-07 - Linked
See next post for next article
Goldilox (3/2/07; 11:49:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 152891)
Darkside
@ Thoreauly,
I remember watching this presentation a few months back, when we were discussing "Naked Shorting". What a racket.
Seems to me that the FOREX is similar, as commercial banks that want to short a currency can borrow unlimited funds from the FED to do so, under their "relaxed" reserve rules.
If this is the case, it is one more "weapon of financial mass destruction" that can be weilded against those who challenge Dollar hegemony.
I believe this is why some state that commodities may divorce themselves from the paper trade at some point, as an FTD in paper is not quite the same as an FTD (force majore?) in goods.
Correct me if I am wrong . . .
Thoreauly (3/2/07; 10:28:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 152890)
@ msiwantitall
http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html
Terrific presentation that I highly recommend everyone watch.
What's it boil down to?
First we had fractional reserve banking, and now we've got fractional reserve trading.
Or to put it another way, the Mother of All Bubbles has birthed a new one.
In Gold We Trust (buying the dips accordingly).
Silver Fox (3/2/07; 10:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 152889)
Topaz #: 152874
Businessjive.com
Topaz: thank you for that posting the Internet link to businessjive. I have known for over a decade that the stock market was rigged, I just didn't know how the game was played. I also always thought that the SEC was just another clueless federal agency. But this site does a great job of explaining how the "game" is rigged and that "our" SEC is a willing participant in the scam. Real scary...
All the more reason to own gold.
SF
Au-some (3/2/07; 10:15:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 152888)
Carry trade
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/press.asp?rls_id=709&cat_id=6&
"If you think stock markets were the only ones that went haywire this week, look again:
The dollar fell sharply, especially against the yen ... Treasury bonds soared, with the long bond gaining almost a point and a half on February 27 alone ... and gold prices swung all over the place.
In other words, volatility went off the charts in almost every market I track. A volatility gauge maintained by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, for example, exploded 63% in a single day, the biggest increase in U.S. market history.
What single force links all this action? What little (or big!) beast could possibly be behind so many seemingly disparate market moves? Here's my answer … "
Kilo (3/2/07; 09:32:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 152887)
Nothing New.
When they have stocks to sell, "Equities are the best place to be......"
When they need to support the dollar, "Liquidity is the best place to be......."
Nothing new under the sun !
Survivor (3/2/07; 09:15:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152886)
A Yen For Gold
@Cometose. You asked:
"DID any fundamental change happen in the last week to
alter the BASIC OUTLOOK for the DEFICITS , DOLLAR, WAR,
ENERGY COMPLEX, the FAILING status of the RESERVE CURRENCY?"
Now, don't get me wrong. . . I agree with GATA's perspective on gold pricing as much as anyone here, but in this case I think natural market forces are playing into the hands of those who prefer a lower gold price.
The reason is the Yen carry trade. Boatloads of Yen have been borrowed at almost zero interest. The currency is then "carried" to other markets around the world where it is invested (maybe "leveraged" is a better term) at higher rates of return.
I think it is inevitable that some of the carry trade funds have been invested in gold - probably paper gold (futures or ETF). We know the gold market is relatively small, so it would not take a lot of carry trade money to have a significant impact on the gold market.
The Yen carry trade operates on a spread of maybe 3% or so. During the last week, the Yen value has increased just enough to erase that spread. So what happens? Speculators get out of their positions and sell those Yen back ASAP. This is the unwinding of a leverage play which affects markets all over the planet.
I believe gold has been impacted by these currency moves. If I am correct, then the effect may be temporary.
- Survivor
Druid (3/2/07; 09:07:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 152885)
flow5 (3/1/07; 15:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 152862)
"It has been repeatedly stated that the only tool at the disposal of the monetary authority in a free capitalistic system through which the volume of money can be controlled is legal reserves. If the FOMC ever came to grips with the historical experience, they would realize that the only type of bank asset that Fed can constantly monitored and absolutely control, are interbank demand deposits (IBDDs) held in the Reserve banks, owned by the commercial banks. This was the original definition of legal reserves in 1913, and it is the only viable definition.
A reserve maintenance period is a period over which the daily average reserves of a depository institution must equal or exceed its required reserves. Required reserves are based on daily average deposit liabilities in the reserve computation period."
Druid: Are some very large market participants beginning to realize this and adjusting their portfolios accordingly or, and probably a combination of both, is the CB banking cartel relationship(London, New York, Tokyo) beginnig to splinter which is feeding into this most recent volatility?
I would think, that through the interdependence that these CB's weaved together, someone would step up and cover any shortages.
mikal (3/2/07; 08:48:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 152884)
Time to lighten up says bank
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apJK4zygVGjQ&refer=worldwide
Dresdner recommends aggressive underweight in equities
Bloomberg | March 02, 2007
Cometose (3/2/07; 08:46:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 152883)
RED TAG SALE
WHat a Party !!!
It looks like something's wrong with this picture .......
Someone paying homage to almighty dollar ..........
Funny that it is still bumping resistance this morning that was once support at .8380 and the silver and gold complex(s) are down 5.98% and 11% respectively....
since the drop began ....
WTIC .....not moved by all the monkey business ...maybe getting ready to roll over
WHO'S SELLING ......?
How many billions were cashed out the other day at the fall of Mr Dow and SP and NASDAQ....
Good Cash to go on a buying spree at rock bottom prices after a precipitous and unlikely crash in metals.....
THE STENCH is going up my nose.....and smells of ROTTENNEESS.....
SPOILED RETARDS.......from IVY LEAGUE SCHOOLS that got in while the NETWORKING WAS GOOD ....NOW THEY DO ANYTHING THEY ARE TOLD for the security the FRN represents to them since they have NO OTHER KNOWHOW than to do what they are told ....to be accepted by the crowd they married....and have given their souls to die for......
I am sure that everytime they do this ........
people who are a threat to national security and homeland security buy up the gold .......
PRESTO CHANGO .....and LOOK KIDS .......
GOLD AND SILVER DOWN.....
GUESS THERE'S NO INFLATION ........
DID any fundamental change happen in the last week to
alter the BASIC OUTLOOK for the DEFICITS , DOLLAR, WAR,
ENERGY COMPLEX, the FAILING status of the RESERVE CURRENCY .
WHAT you gonna do ......
Who you gonna call .....
What do people buy in times of global financial political instability ...
Do YOU think that the BIG BOYS are NOT POSITIONING THEMSELVES in allignment with this SEA CHANGE that relates to K WINTER ....inspite of having the neurotic bent to stay in control via unlimited PRINTING PRESS ABILITY...
When wars are waged, to the VICTOR go the SPOILS.....and I believe that the one trick pony show has arrived again ...
and we are on the verge of a STAND OFF or a WAR..
I believe banker's who finance war's require GOLD as COLLATERAL .....when these situations transpire.
Last night there was some IRREGULAR REPORTING OF PRICES at KITCO ......
THERE'S no limit to the mischief these people have to use at their disposal ......and it's a good CUT .....
IN TIMES LIKE THESE, PAPER burns and METALS SHINE .......
REAL MONEY IS LIKE THE TRUTH , its the same yesterday today and forever....standing watch and serving its mission .....
IT REMAINS when the BANKER'S HOUSES and the CURRENCIES burn ........BOND HOUSES FAIL ....STOCKEXCHANGES COLLAPSE.
The battle rages .........and skirmishes come and go and their casualties......but the longterm affects of inflation are embedded in the fundamental science of money and its distribution .....ever increasing supply of frns chasing limited supply increases of Natural resources required to sustain PEOPLES wants and needs causes PRICES of the RESOURCES to go up .
ONe has to decide if one wants to have GOLD OR SILVER IN ONES POSSESSION when the music stops and their are no more CHAIRS......just frns'''''' weimar germany style frns....
WHAT IS WRONG with the WEST ....the BANKER"S , POLITICIANS, and MEDIA , is that their time hozizon for doing things is not more than a few years ; it has to do with the next election or the year end botoom line ...
THEIR IS NO GUIDING LIGHT , vision , plan that THESE PEOPLE NAVIGATE BY,( excepting the social engineering programs that may or may not be leading to a NEW WORLD ORDER : a plan that is not in the interests of the people) . THE CHINESE are planning in 100 year increments . don't know what their plan is but long term given their population and buying power ....their plan is probably going to have more bearing on the future and global banking , politics .... than the activity taking place in the west.
I think , another cureency crisis their is not a destabilizing factor.......they will not be subjugated in this manner again .....Maybe the CIA will scare them into subjection by bringing more GERM WARFARE DIRTY TRICKS out of the closet .....again ...Maybe the ARABS and all of the far east and CHINA will get on board the NEW WORLD ORDER (BANKER CANCER) TRAIN ....and peace unity and harmony will grow out of a vacuum .........I DON'T THINK SO.....
TRUE RESPECT IS A SEED SOWN and REQUIRED for these CULTURES TO BE UNDERMINED IN THIS WAY ....and THERE IS NO RESPECT ...just bankers taking coup ........
as long as this is the state of affairs in the world ....
there will be no peace or trust ,,,,,,and GOLD WILL DO WHAT GOLD DOES ........acts as a WATCHMAN and it will be used as a tool from the EAST to KEEP WESTERN BANKERS and currency systems and governments HONEST.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/2/07; 05:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 152882)
An inflation-adjusted hint at gold's price potential. PAST >>> PRESENT >>> FUTURE
http://www.usagold.com/order_form.html
Topaz (3/2/07; 04:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 152880)
$PoG.
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif
Odd little flurry in virtual SpotPoG just now. It popped up to accomodate the London "fix" @ $664 ...and now is settling back down.
I'd find the "fix" more credible if it popped $20 or $30 bucks and settled back down again to better reflect the Papermarket PoG.
It will one day ...count on it!
Topaz (3/2/07; 03:37:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 152879)
Y-PoG
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_USDJPY
After recently besting it's multi-year PoG high, Yen, following criticism from fellow G8 members at their recent knees-up in Essen, has reacted most out-of-character and plunged ...or better skyrocketed visavee everything!
BoJ are usually all over this sort of strength "managing" it back down. ...Hu knows why they're absent now?
melda laure (3/2/07; 00:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 152878)
Falling Knives, falling bricks, steel toed shoes.
they say never to catch a falling knife.
This doesn't apply to gold, as it can never break- and even if it did, it would be unchanged.
Of course, the average investor is more likely to try to catch a falling index. Given the fundamentals, that may not be a good idea- besides, unless you are a Buffet, you could never take delivery.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
