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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/2/2004
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (7/2/04; 23:31:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 122727)
Market Wrap Up - Wood
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

If we turn to the work of the great Dow theorist, Robert Rhea, he says, "Whenever one average pushes above a previous high and the other indicator refuses to take the hurdle, the market is reflecting uncertainty…..." Rhea also stated that when the averages were not "in gear" or "when the averages disagree, they are shouting be careful." I know that most people are very skeptical of the bearish case. This is completely understandable because of the duration of the bear market rally. This rally has served to suck the bulls in and even served to neuter most bears, sucking them right in as well. We have seen sentiment readings at levels not seen since 1987, so this makes perfect sense. Most technicians have complained about how their system or indicators have not worked. This has served to discredit them and even cause many to question or abandon their own work.

Black Blade: Tim and I have had our disagreements (on another site), but he does stick to his guns so you gotta respect that at least. But he is TA and I am FA so our take is usually like "comparing apples to oranges". He even called me "scathing" once in one of his articles about the "so-called" Gold anaylist Andy Smith - I still chuckle over that one. Times will continue to be challenging for some year to come. Just get prepared for the possible pitfalls in the future. Your wealth and savings may very well depend on it. (You know where to call and who to talk to - USAGOLD).


Aristotle (7/2/04; 23:30:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 122726)
CoBra(too): "you disparage the miners of the metal"
*WHO* are you reading???

That part was off the mark, but thanks for your overall assessment, though. I'll be glad to go down in history officially now as the first so christened fiat-using, Gold-holding, non-conspiratorializing *zealot*. Sheeeeeeeeeeeeesh. (Where's my dictionary? Z- Z- zzzzz...)

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Steve22 (7/2/04; 23:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 122725)
*Contest Vote*
I think I may be well qualified to be fair in judging, in that I am new around here and haven't developed any biases toward or against one character or another. So, here are my picks for the top three:(and with respect to all the rules of judging)


caradoc - (For precipitating the series of events that challenged me to think of judgement day in ways I had never conceived. Scary!)

mamoose - (for taking the leap to propose solutions and for questioning complacency)


remarx - (For placing an emphasis on the highly important, "Limits to Growth")

Here Here For all the writers!



Black Blade (7/2/04; 23:11:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 122724)
Essay Contest

Gee Gandy and Panel, I sure do not envy you all with the decisions you have to make. With so many thought provoking essays and involving so many issue ranging from geopolitical, geological, regulatory to depleting resources and economics of the hydrocarbon society where hydrocarbons (fuels to petrochemical and feedstock - oil and natural gas) are the life blood of any established industrialized society to the newly emerging economics vying for the same product where supply and the ability to increase supply significantly is rather limited (Remember - gasoline and diesel fuels are just "by-products" of crude oil) and yet are crucial to most societies. The supply-demand issues on this crucial product alone do and will continue to play havoc with currencies, trade, and inflation/stagflation. Every postwar (WWII) has been preceded by an "energy crisis".

There were many interesting and well though out essays and I think because we are all affected by the cost (rising or falling). Some I agreed with whole-heartedly and others I did not completely agree with, however, we are subject to our personal experiences and what we percieve by how the issue is presented by (mostly) the mainstream media. Much the same as how the same media deals with mining (base and precious metals mining as well as basic commodities). Gee, I could have easily just reprinted "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man") I posted here a couple of times in the past (even in the early days of this forum). Nothing much has changed except the increase in demand as the Third World emerges from its cocoon and attempts to "catch up" to industrialized neighbors. The issue of oil and natural gas will continue to plague the world economies for years to come. Even the promise of a "Hydrogen Society" is a farce as the tight bond of H20 will make the energy input to break off Hydrogen a non-starter without a free energy source such as geothermal in Iceland for example or a low cost expansion of nuclear energy (very difficult politically and economically at present). The hydrogen will come from methane (natural gas) CH4 where the bond is easily broken and the Hydrogen separated at low cost.

Then there are the "dreamers" who see biomass to solar as the ultimate answer. Conservation can only help but we are also in the "New Economy" with even higher demands on energy (not just fuel saving internal combustion engines and hybrids alone will not have much impact - especially with 1.3 billion Chinese looking to become more like mobile Americans (and don't for get the nearly 1 billion Indians to the south). Perhaps a "clean coal technology" at a reasonable cost may be available down the road so to speak. Still, oil and natural gas are critical components of our western society and demand is fast outstripping supply - just forget about the refining and pipeline capacity for now and think of the expansion in demand).

We already know what will happen to currencies and the major bankers tied down with $trillions in unsteady derivatives and US debt as reaserves even as the Federal readies to keep raising rates (lowering the value of goverment paper). No doubt as to why China's four major banks are buying Gold and other foreign currencies to diversify away from the crumbling US dollar. Even now the Chinese politicos are looking at changing the Yaun-Dollar peg and allowing a free trade in Gold and even encoraging personal investment of its people to private ownership where such a thing was unthinkable until relatively recently. I would not be surprised to see the dollar tank after the November elections and to see Gold, Silver, and Platinum Group Metals even double or triple by year-end. Now is the time for "portfolio insurance" if you have not already done so. The Castle Guards (MK, Jonathon, George Cooper, Marie, etc.) stand ready at the gates/vault door to give advice or to "cut a deal" to exchange debasing US dollars for the "real deal".

Happy fourth of July - or more correctly "Independence Day"!

- Black Blade

BTW, during the Revolutionary War against Britain - how many colonists supported the fight?

Answer: 37%! Yes, bravery and taking the first step is the hardest on a long journey (buy Gold and Silver now at these "cheap" prices while you can). Also now you know where a lot of Canadians had their origins after the defeat of Cornwallis to George Washington as French warships sat offshore when the French had the "fire of fight in their hearts" under the direction of ole Lafayette.


Caradoc (7/2/04; 22:41:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 122723)
top three
Using alphabetical order to indicate a three-way tie for first place...

DryWasher
Remarx
Toolie

Rationale...

First off, there were several essays ranging from thought-provoking to persuasive (including two so good I've already forwarded the text to friends) that simply didn't address all three questions. No matter how "good" these were, they qualify only for partial credit and so don't make my "top three."

As the mirror image reversal of this problem, Toolie's essay is arguably the most straightforward essay in competition, knocking the questions down one at a time while literally "essaying" to present his opinion. This makes my top three even though I doubt that the "required energy efficiencies" will actually come about so as to give dense population centers the edge of enhanced productivity.

Since the outcome of all three questions is a matter of probabilities, the only "true" answer is the spectrum of possible outcomes. Both DryWasher (short and sweet) and Remarx (a more detailed analysis) present us their versions of best case/ worst case and do the most to make us think. Bravo!

With my top three out of the way, I've got to add that Specie-man also deserves a prize for sheer creative genius.

Final thoughts... For future contests, a word limit would make the judges' job a lot easier as would a short list of criteria. Since "essay" means "attempt" and the contestants are attempting to present their opinion, I'd suggest that clarity and persuasiveness be the primary criteria.

Caradoc


Gandalf the White (7/2/04; 19:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 122722)
STATUS report on the Judging of the ESSAY CONTEST !!!
There has been a SLIGHT delay in the announcement of the Essay Contest "THREE" WINNERS ! Perhaps you all can understand the problem, as there were almost half as many GREAT ENTRIES to the Essay Contest as there were in the "relative easy" POG guessing contest !

The Hobbit "Panel of Judges" requested additional advise after the "first cut" of entries -- They ask me if I would go and ask SIR MK if he would consider awarding TEN "FIRST PRIZES" ? ------

I then quickly sent them back into "deliberations", with instructions to consider if THEY wished to provide the additional NINE uncirculated U.S. Liberty $10. Gold coins from their collections ! THEY then, quickly determined that THAT request may be a little tooooo much --- so they re-evaluated their rankings, and suggested that perhaps a total of at least EIGHT prizes could be awarded !
I had a sit-down meeting with them and threated to take away their pipe-weed and told them that I myself would review their top SIX ranked entries.

They cluched their pipe-weed closely, and smilingly gave them to me !

I have been reading, rereading and rerereading these and have have "now seen" their delema !
BUT -- Knot to worry --

I shall simply send them to SIR MK and let him determine the WINNERS !! <;-)

WHEN -- that will be is the QUESTION !
Perhaps on the FOURTH of JULY !!!
Stay tuned.
GW

Goldendome (7/2/04; 19:19:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 122721)
OK--I get it! Alphabetical listing of 3 essayists!
Buongiorno
Rocky
Toolie

Goldendome (7/2/04; 18:39:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 122720)
Top Three essays--

There were a lot of good essays. It has to be hard, being the judge. Perhaps, limiting length as well as brevity would help the cause?

I choose three that I felt answered ALL three questions asked:
In relation to the U.S. economy?, the world economy?, and Gold?; and they were able to do it in a succinct, Short essay. Spending some time on each issue.

They are:

Rocky
Buongiorno
Toolie

CoBra(too) (7/2/04; 18:33:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 122719)
Free Gold?
Oh, Ari I'm ever so sorry to have provoked your wrath on still not getting what "Free Gold" means.

Of course, I do know what it means geologically, but then again you disparage the miners of the metal, either being shysters to sell their product to the legal tender of current day and overuse, or even sell it before it's mined to the same - with all of its known effects.

I guess more of your ridicule will be directed to me when I would respectfully ask to - ah, let us have your interpretation of what Free Gold on your terms really means.

... and really, Ari, I've sensed some kind of exhaustion in your temper lately. Is it that free gold hasn't arrived yet, or is it that the weight of the metal is still too low to add up to too much acquisition of the same which bears you down. After all it's a great position to be in; And it would also explain your bad temper, even going as far as being utterly rude. And I don't mind being rude to me, as I may have deserved it.

Anyway, to close my case with my posting here, I just would like to add that zealots are not a real help to any case! And in particular zealots of your ilk are somewhat suspect anyway.

Don't ever worry, I'm still executing my long term strategy to go gold and have been kind'a successfull in acquiring much more than would seem my due in your (im-)practical and one-sided philosdophy.

Don't worry just blast my incompetence of understanding your tirades - I've probably been around these markets much longer than you! Bla bla... and still don't have your easy answer -shame on me!

Cheers cb2

PS: What happened to the Ari posting a great essay about Oil some years back? Just considering the merits you've in all reality have had and lost for me... Ciao

Goldless Heathen (7/2/04; 16:06:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 122718)
Essay Contest
I did not submit an essay. I did download and print and read all the essays so I don't know if my opinion should be included. But now I certainly appreciate all the work the judges had to do.

I just want to mention that on Friday morning after reading Caradoc's essay I decided to give up writing mine.

Why attempt to re-invent the wheel or shoot for second place?

Aristotle (7/2/04; 15:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 122717)
FreeGold sunshine for SteveH (RE: "anti-cheeleader" post 122704)
Sounds to me like you could use a refresher course in the nature of sunshine.

The sun doesn't send down its rays *balanced* in both light and shadow. (And neither does the Truth need arrive *balanced* with lies on forked tongue.)

The light IS precisely what it IS, Light, and thanks to it, and its singular illuminating quality, you are only thus able to ascertain the depth of The Shadow that presently surrounds you.

Without the Light, you would know nothing from either illumination or shadow -- you would know only utter darkness. And utter darkness, pal, without even a shaft of singular light to give it meaning by its very contrast, is in itself utterly without meaning.

But then, you probably already knew all this, it's just that your keyboard hijacked control while you were having breakfast? Sheeeesh, the state we're in.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Toolie (7/2/04; 15:35:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 122716)
Best of the best
I gave the page about 90 minutes attention. TC, you have my sympathy.
In alphabetical order.
Boilermaker
specie-man
Steve22


Remarx (7/2/04; 13:53:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 122715)
********** Top Three **********
Caradoc
mamoose
wehappyfew

What an education, reading through all the essays! I thorougly enjoyed it.

-r


Buongiorno! (7/2/04; 13:22:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 122714)
essay contest

Ah! Troppo lavoro!! But here are three of several essays that I really liked. Confession: Anything past about 5-600 words was just too much to get my feeble thoughts around, so if management wants, they may throw this out as being prejudiced and not part of the rules. Fair enough. Perhaps 'twood be considered in the future?

Great use of facts, projections, metaphor, and opinion throughout. It is truly an honor to be in this great group! Difficult it was, but here goes.....

Black Blade
CB-2
Tevye
And many others!
Ciao!
Buongiorno!

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (7/2/04; 13:01:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 122713)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

(closing market excerpts)

Gold futures rose for a third session Friday to close at a four-day high as disappointing figures on U.S. job growth weighed on the dollar and boosted investment demand for the metals....

Job growth in the United States slowed in June after three months of robust hiring, the Labor Department estimated Friday. "The monthly unemployment report indicates that the Fed may have to abstain from raising rates for the remainder of the year," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services....

The news sparked the biggest bond rally in six months, sending interest rates and the dollar into a dive, both of which favored a move to gold for portfolio insurance. August gold settled up $2.30 at $398.70 an ounce, extending Thursdays $3.40 rally.

Stop-loss buying above $400 extended the gain to $401.50 from a low of $392.60. But after the opening flurry, trading was quiet as the market watched the clock before a midday COMEX close for the July 4th holiday weekend. U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday to observe Independence Day....

Regular trading will resume Tuesday...

The jobs report bolstered confidence that the Federal Reserve might not embark on an aggressive tightening of monetary policy after it raised interest rates Wednesday, ending a historic 3-1/2 year period of accommodation where interest rates were at their lowest since the late 1950s. The government also reported that new orders at U.S. factories fell 0.3 percent in May, half the expected 0.6 percent decline, but still suggesting a slowdown in second quarter growth....

The dollar was sharply lower against the euro following the job growth data, and the move sent many investors to gold as a hedge against losses. "Gold's strength is being supported by the perception the U.S. dollar will only get weaker over time," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, a financial publication...

The euro jumped to a 3-1/2 week high at $1.2324 as the dollar fell. Dollar-priced gold looks cheaper to overseas buyers when their currencies rise...

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)----


mikal (7/2/04; 12:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 122712)
Gold Haikus
Gold: BCBN (Buy cheap buy now,
for Aristotle)

Paper mache gold,
Shiny confetti freefall-
Life of the party

Most haiku's don't need a title, e.g.:

Free hand for free trade.
Free birds with free will buy gold-
Spirit hops, leaps, soars.

Thanks for reading.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (7/2/04; 12:15:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 122711)
A declaration of independence for your savings
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html





Bizarro-Greenspan (7/2/04; 12:15:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 122710)
Free gold,it's already free?

Quite frankly,I think CB2 must of stumbled into a room filled with nitrous oxide.

TownCrier (7/2/04; 11:21:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 122709)
Contest essay judges would like a helping hand...
http://www.usagold.com/contests/June2004.html
If you visit the contest page, you will find a hyperlink atop that page that take you to a chronological listing of all essay entries. (see url for direct shortcut)

After a week of reading, sorting, pondering and sorting some more, we still feel the greater part of the challenge is before us to narrow the field to its final prize-winners.

You are hereby asked to see what we are up against and gain for yourself a sense of the challenge we face. Feel free to read all the posts and pick your top three entrants (not including yourself -- we will automatically give your own essay extra credit in our final considerations for your willingness to lend a hand).

Then, don't assign or indicate a final rank to them, but simply post your choice for top three by listing the three posters' handles in ALPHABETICAL order.

We'll use your suggestions (along with the special credit mentioned above) to help us reach our final decisions and break the ties.

Thanks!

R.

Clink! (7/2/04; 08:56:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 122708)
Volatility
At 8.30 this morning, the USDX went from 89.0 to 88.25 within the 5 min window of the chart I happen to be looking at, and continued on down to 88.1 in the following hour. This was presumably due to the poor employment figures. I'm not sure about other people, but it impresses the heck out of me that there can be that huge a change in notional value in such a short period of time and that there is so much free cash sloshing about in the money markets for them to move that quickly.
Stranger still is that this kind of thing should happen at a time when the volatility of the stock markets is at an all-time low.
Of course, the POG reacted nicely, only to be capped at $6, as usual ....
C!

GratefulForGold (7/2/04; 07:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 122707)
Euro/Dollar/FreeGold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/wallenwein062904.html
Good Morning!

I happened to read Wallenwein's lastest at the neighboring castle and, in light of some current posts here, thought some of you might appreciate it. It contains nothing new for most of you but any newer reader might benefit from his theories/conclusions. (And, of course, if what he writes needs further clarification or debate, Belgian, Ari and many others here can easily rectify that situation!)

Despite his title "THE EURO: Another Broken Promise?" he mentions little of the Euro but does do a very nice simile on "weightlessness" that is entertaining and seems appropo.

In the end, he leaves it open ended as to whether the Euro
will accomplish its goal. However, he does add a "burden" to the Euro/FreeGold concept with his view of a "parallel bullion currency."


It's always nice to come to this castle and bask in the glow of (and become renewed by) the chemistry of wonderful minds in debate and overall communion!

Thank all of you. Though usually silent, I am here in the shadows, absorbing the wisdom.

My best to everyone, and if a US citizen, may this July 4th weekend be a safe and joyous celebration and reaffirmation of the principles upon which this country was founded.

Lady GFG



Toolie (7/2/04; 07:22:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 122706)
U.S. Job Growth Slows Sharply in June
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20040702&ID=3853709
Snip:
The Labor Department said only 112,000 jobs were created last month, far fewer than the 250,000 that Wall Street analysts had anticipated. April and May new-job totals were revised down, to 324,000 and 235,000 respectively, from 346,000 and 248.000.
The unemployment rate was unchanged, as expected, at 5.6 percent. (end snip)

The decline in job growth continues to accelerate as the lingering effects of fiscal stimulus dissipate. "Bout face Al. This month's report falls short of the estimated 150,000 new jobs that must be created each month to maintain a stable unemployment rate. With more and more wealth generating activities off-shored, the workforce becomes further dependant on government employment and repatriated corporate profits, the latter just isn't happening.

If you listen closely, you can hear the sound dollar plummeting toward its intrinsic value. That's gonna be one impressive crater.


Henri (7/2/04; 07:05:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 122705)
Not quite haiku
The universe is conspiring for us to succeed in our quest
Yet too many choose to bring to a test
the things they think are for the best


SteveH (7/2/04; 06:14:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 122704)
Cheerleading
Free gold is understood I believe.

I am with Cobra(too), a long-established poster, because one thing (amongst others) that I don't like about CNBC is the constant cheerleading comments about something that has both sunshine and shadows. Never hearing of shadows there, always hearing about sunshine speaks of the need for balanced coverage. As it applies there, it applies here.

Cobra(too), you would be missed.

Knallgold (7/2/04; 04:44:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 122703)
FreeGold
Thanks all for responsing,particularly Belgian (scepticism can be a trap sometimes...) and Aristotle,good arguments. Unlike Cobra(too) I'm not tired of this discussions.

FreeGold is mostly about DERIVATIVE free Gold,I think we should give it a chance (the concept and physical Gold).Question is where starts the term derivative?Options,futures sure.A Goldmine?Not really,it produces Gold,your own fault if you think its like Gold.But you can buy physical Gold from a Goldmine.

And then there was this discussion about Money being a derivative of Gold (or vice versa?),I'm still thinking about that.But the weekend is calling now...

Aristotle (7/2/04; 03:52:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 122702)
FreeGold for KnallGold and for CoBra, too
Knallgold's own Pappy says, "son, this will never come, they won't let it happen."

Knallgold himself says, "You have to admit this concept needs some powerful backing, I mean just because it might be a good idea and you are a good guy won't bring it."

Awww shucks... thanks for suggesting I'm a good guy. But the truth is, sometimes I wake up in the morning and all I wanna do is kick that dog for barking so damn much.

Maybe, just for now, the fact that I don't is reason enough to claim the title?

Lemme let you in on a little secret -- there's really only one thing that scares a central banker enough to keep him lying awake at night. A profligate government with rampant budget deficits? Nawww... that merely pisses 'em off. The monster under the bed for a true blue central banker creeps and crawls and answers to the name of Systemic Risk.

The innate fear and desire to vanquish that monster is a powerful force in our favor, my friend. That alone is worth a helluva lot more toward reaching our goal of FreeGold than me just hanging around being some sorta "good guy."

CoBra, the only way I can make sense of your #122695 post is to conclude that you haven't quite yet figured out what the heck FreeGold means, or maybe more charitably, you haven't figured out what WE mean by it (in which case the fault is surely ours.(??))

You talk about Gold in need of no freeing from shackles and that real Gold is already (actually you used the word "always") "free and at liberty" -- and here's the part I don't follow -- "to ascertain its freedom... blah blah blah..."

To my mind, Gold ascertains its freedom in the very act of finding its price through the help of the particular functioning of the nearest available market, what with its quirks and all -- them being the nature of the unfree problem. How can a Real Physical Ounce stand up and be fairly counted (or marked), pricewise that is, when surrounding it are dozens of impostors decked out in superficially convincing papier mâché?

To carry onward with your lingo, the lower Gold finds its price in that crowed field, the more I'd say it's ASCERTAINED that it ain't as free as it oughta be!! The market ain't free to hang a proper price on RARE Real Gold until such time as the masquerading imposters are stripped of their papery powers of financial illusion. Who c/would engineer such a thing? Weeeellllll,,,, we all know how central bankers feel about elements that unnecessarily engender Systemic Risk...

Real Gold. Its time will come to be free. Get you some. --- Aristotle

specie-man (7/2/04; 00:31:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 122701)
Definition of "Free Gold".

.
.
.

"FREE GOLD" is the gold that you hold in your hand.

.
.
.





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