All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Goldilox (1/2/04; 23:20:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114511)
POG conversation
@ANOO and Solomon
A hearty exchange, but neither of you is really differing from the other in your conclusions. . . more in which perspective you're choosing to focus.
The original article was fraught with ignorance, as ANOO observed. Gold up 20%? Only in US$ terms . . .compared with any other benchmark, it has remained stable, exhibiting its "insurance mode" against the US$ decline. The real bull begins when gold rises against $AU, rand, Euro, $CA, etc.
Gold as a risky investment - certainly paper contracts including gold are as risky as any other cellulose - both in volatility and reliability. Physical gold is about the least risky commodity to hold. It might devalue (not very likely) but in doing so, it will reflect other (probably massive) devaluations and maintain its value much better than most.
Most "investment advisors" used to suggest 5% hard metal insurance, but lately many are suggesting 10-15%. In addition, more analysts are noticing the paper chase in PMs and commodities as lucrative speculative investments. I lean towards believing that phase II is in full throttle, complete with increased media coverage and "wall of worry" bull market reaction. Increased margins on physical and more frequent small dealer shortages of product suggest this to me, as well.
I' believe there is still much of phase II remaining, and phase III is where the real logrithmic gains should occur. At this point, we will see a shift from "some smart advisors" noticing gold to MOST advisors noticing gold. IMHO, one of the most difficult tasks for TPTB this election year will be "stretching" phase II beyond the election and preventing or misdirecting any signs of phase III initiation. Phase III will be impossible to "manage" and will NOT reflect AG or GWB in very flattering imagery.
Thanks for the awesome posts - your observations are much appreciated. Gold night and gold trading to you both.
Thank you, as well, Michael, for the awesome forum and support for credible ideas. With all the current challenges to 2nd amendment rights, and the near abandonment of public enlightenment by the media, your gift to the gold world has been incredibly refreshing.
(:> Goldilox
Gandalf the White (1/2/04; 23:19:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114510)
This is "THE CHART" for all Goldhearts to watch next week !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[dc][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
IF the 30 Year "Treasury Bond" does not REBOUND from today's close, and goes LOWER on increased volume, ---- THIS will be a MAJOR signal, (NEGATIVE) for the US economy, and GOLD will FLY !
Everyone will be soon thinking --- WHY, WHY, WHY did I not buy PHYSICAL YELLOW at that $415. level ?
Just remember who warned you !
<;-)
Dollar Bill (1/2/04; 22:42:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 114509)
*>*
http://sio.midco.net/denro/www/marketcharts.html
The dow utilities chart merits a look see in the link, here below is a view of how tech traders view things. Last line is revealing. Fundamentals? Company debt levels? Not an issue if the big boys decide to support at key technical points in the market. The tech traders play on technical moves period. Or, they try. If a trend is supported, underlying reality be damned, this is the disconnect between thier logic and ours. Bears mentioned here are Tech bears, not the same as perhaps your definition of bear.
"...Bears are going to have to be betting that the high late 2002 was an A wave and the bottom was a B and not a (1) and a (2). Both counts will fit on the end of this rally we have been in recently. If we correct and in deed do put a 5th wave on this rally after about a 140 point and 1000 point correction on the S&P and Dow respectively, the wise money is going to be buying the next dip, which should put in a bottom near the 9000 mark on the Dow and probably in the 850-900 area in the S&P. The S&P and Nasdaq might not make a new high, but the Dow has been rigged upward enough that an extreme new high could be possible."
Solomon Weaver (1/2/04; 22:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114508)
paper is risk - physical is not
A Nation of One
If you are a man of your word, you are off to bed.....so sleep well, but I will reply again to this little chain of thoughts we share.
The point I made (and I believe you agree with) is that for many in the financial world, gold is not just gold, it is some form of paper trade. As a matter of fact, the pure absurdity that most paper traders use leverage to enter into options and futures contracts for which they are not at all in a financial position to take or make delivery of the full face value of the contract, is the very source of their risk. To a paper trader, the RISK is simply that the underlying asset moves too quickly against the bet they have placed.
Another very risky business played with gold is FRACTIONAL RESERVE GOLD BANKING, which is essentially issuing two or more claims for the same physical gold.
Physical Gold is actually the exact opposite. It is essentially the least volatile of all assets. And, as I mentioned in my last post just now, the amount of physical gold cannot be eroded in quite the same way that printing press (and credit expansion) can erode the value of fiat cash or any asset which remains fairly constant in fiat price.
In some of the postings in the old days here, Another and Trail Guide have even hypothesized that the "value of paper gold" could actually fall to near zero, while the "value of physical gold" moves to the upper atmosphere. It is these opposite risk profiles which is the determinant of this....ie. either you sell me a promise or you sell me the real thing....the value of the promise falls to zero when promises to deliver the real thing cannot be kept. It is also an expression of Gresham's Law.
Poor old Solomon
Solomon Weaver (1/2/04; 21:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114507)
The simplicity of gold
MK - nice to see how the words of Another were ahead of their time.
I would like to say some words to those quiet ones who come through these halls, and lurk, and listen...and some who post......
There is a very simple thing about gold that is actually hard to understand...but unless one gets it, one is always worried about the "value".
An ounce of gold is simply worth an ounce of gold.
An ounce of silver is simply worth an ounce of silver.
The "value" of gold is so powerful that the Euro architects actually chose to once again to use it in their reserves in a formal way.
Another thing which is a bit humbling....there are still nations today where the per capita GDP equates to about 1 ounce of gold.
I believe MK has a story to tell about a couple who had come from Vietnam with a life savings they could hold in the palm of their hand.
All of us here spend many hours of enjoyment, pondering and learning about, and following the daily events of macroeconomic news, currency trading, gold price fluctuations etc. And of course, since most of us might roughly know the ounces we own, we will occassionally do a mental "mark to market" analysis of the "value" of our gold. And, we can get quite excited when gold makes a really nice run upwards...and dissappointed when it falls.
But in the end, all of this talk and analysis is simply an ongoing rationalization to keep up confidence in the simple choice we make to be gold owners.....
I have to admit, I find the action here on this and other good investment news sites to be much more exciting than an envelope with another gold coin in it......although it is the numbers of those coins which may determine the resources I and my wife will have to send our children to decent Universities and to have comfortable retirement years. So, since and ounce of gold is simply worth an ounce of gold, I look at it as one of the ultimate buy and hold opportunities....with the assurance that if someday I need my savings, the same number of ounces are at my disposal. No Central Bank will have been able to quietly take away the number of coins one has saved.
As a last note, many here know how much I like silver. I like it most because I believe that it WILL perform in tandem with gold, but will OUTPERFORM GOLD, in the mid-term. But, I would be quite happy to mark my silver to market in the amount of gold it will buy.
Poor old Solomon
a nation of one (1/2/04; 21:42:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114506)
Solomon
The writer referred to people who were simply talking
about "gold." Physical gold -gold itself- is not very
risky at this point, in my view.
a nation of one (1/2/04; 21:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 114505)
to any
I must to bed. If replys, I'll respond tomorrow.
a nation of one (1/2/04; 21:31:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 114504)
to Solomon Weaver (1/2/04; 21:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114503)
Yes, I see your point.
I was not so much interested in seeing a sense in which
gold is risky (though I did see it), as in sharing what I
could see was being revealed by the sense in which the
word "risky" is not really the best word to describe what
gold is right now.
Solomon Weaver (1/2/04; 21:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114503)
Gold and Risk
A N o O,
If you step back and consider that the speaker you quoted, when he thinks of investing in gold, is refering to a trading activity which would involve some form of paper gold such as options or futures.
Given that the dollar has lost almost 30% of its value from fairly recent tops, if I were to tell you that short selling the dollar is "fraught with risk", you could agree, perhaps, in that were the downward trend in the dollar to rather suddenly reverse itself, one might see a fairly strong reversal. Since gold has been rising mostly in dollar terms (not as much in other currencies) and since most gold paper contracts are marked in dollars, I would consider the risk of leveraged paper long gold to be similar to leveraged dollar short position...i.e. both risky.
Poor old Solomon
a nation of one (1/2/04; 20:59:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114502)
clarification
"When they understand the fact that gold is stronger than they thought it was, they will start to sell it."
By this I mean that they will market it as a product by touting it to their readers or investors, so they can make commissions or aggrandize their own reputations.
a nation of one (1/2/04; 20:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114501)
pog's prospects
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/32837.html
From the article: "With gold at $412 an ounce the venerable Financial Times' Lex column last week dismissed the outlook for the yellow metal as fraught with risk and liable to a sudden large contraction in price.
The argument in a nutshell is that global financial markets are now back on track, have put three bear years behind them and that gold's recent strength is just some sort of a flash in the pan aberration. ...." End of quote.
anoo: For me, the key to understanding what is really going on here is the attitude and outlook of those the writer refers to. The first paragraph shows that the people he refers to have not done their homework and also that they probably would not know how to do it if they wanted to. Specifically: that gold is "fraught with risk" is not true; It's not certain, surely, but that's not the same as risk; Also, that gold is fraught with risk is a prejudice that reveals ignorance on the part of the speaker. Second, that "gold's recent strength is just some sort of a flash in the pan aberration," also reveals a lack of understanding about the issue. The phrase, "...just some sort...of an aberration," would not be used by someone who knows EXACTLY what sort of an aberration gold's recent strength represents. Therefore the person who said that does NOT know exactly what type of aberration it is. This is why he reaches the conclusion that he reaches. In fact though, it is not an aberration, but a knowable phenomenon. This means that he doesn't know it. We call that ignorance. That he would talk about it anyway, we call salemanship. It is not investor savvy.
Moreover, my homework rather strongly suggests that the old trading channel extending above a line drawn through the bottoms of January 2002 and April 2003, and with a top line drawn parallel to it through the high of the early part of 2003, has been clearly broken through on the upside, and is no longer in force, and it also shows that all of the upward movements since April of 2003, to mid-November 2003 have been sufficiently retraced to make possible further signifcant upward movements from here, WITHOUT any "sudden large contraction in price." The people the writer refers to simply don't understand the nature of the present bull market in gold. They might be knowledgeable of something else, but not gold. When they understand the fact that gold is stronger than they thought it was, they will start to sell it. The fact that these people -who are professional money placers- are still not in gold, constitues proof that this bull market in gold is still in its very, very early stages.
Incidently, my charting indicates that a NEW trading range is in force right now, above a line drawn through the bottoms of April 2003 and July 2003, and under a line drawn parallel to it, through the top of May 2003. This channel is narrower and more steeply inclined than the previous one. Right now its bottom is around 377, and its top is near 417. Pog therefore is now at the top of this new trading channel, and whether it breaks out on the upside, or stays within this channel, we are soon to see.
a nation of one (1/2/04; 20:09:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114499)
. ? .
http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=040102000681&query=Kevin+Morrison&vsc_appId=totalSearch&state=Form
"Gold has defied expectations to record a 20 per cent gain
for the second year running as it finished 2003 near a 13-
year high. ...."
It didn't defy OUR expectations.
a nation of one (1/2/04; 19:41:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114498)
good ol' Arnie
Due process? Terminated!
Mr. Schwarzenegger has done what is charismatically
expedient. Many people will love him for it.
But if we call a skunk a rose, it still smells like a skunk.
His approach differs only in being less anticipated than
most. Underneath it lies what almost everyone in public
office almost always does: They declare themselves not
at fault -"I had to do it"- then they go outside either the
letter or the spirit of law, or both, disregard the authentic
needs of the people, and then they particularly ignore the
principles by which the world works. Such is the nature
of evil.
All he has done is make a cute -but no less injurious-
response to the fiduciary malfeasance of those who
preceded him in office. His action will enduringly fix
nothing. But it will perpetuate the ruse. In this way he
has made himself an after-the-fact participant.
A real solution to the budgetary problems that California
is trying to avoid experiencing would require an order of
magnitude more than that.
Such things are not found in movie scripts.
His attempt is pure Hollywood.
But no one should be surprised by this. For that is really
the area of his expertise.
A play for Washington's big bucks? Perhaps.
Will it succeed in getting those bucks? Possibly.
Will it fix the problem?
You know the answer.
The answer is gold.
MK (1/2/04; 19:22:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 114497)
I should add to my previous post
that these exchanges occurred over five years ago when only a handful had even an inkling of the euro's importance, and no one in the mainstream press even bothered with these issues. These conversations occurred during the internet's infancy and gold traded mostly below the $300 level. Little did any of us know that USAGOLD would end up one of the central sites for gold owners and advocates -- and that most of what Another and FOA foresaw would become reality.......
MK (1/2/04; 19:07:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114496)
Thoughts!
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html
Sometimes I look back at these incredible exchanges just to see how they hold up over time. I am satisfied to say that they hold up extremely well. The following speaks for itself -- something worth revisiting as we start the new year. I look back at these times with a smile. It's too bad these folks have gone for the interim. Those were exciting, inspiring times. Thanks, Another and FOA, and best wishes on the New Year.
_________________________
5/3/98 USAGOLD
Dear ANOTHER & Friend of ANOTHER,
I would like to begin by thanking you for taking the time to send your thoughts. They are very interesting to say the least. As you know I too believe that the introduction of the Euro is a seminal event -- one that will change the world financial landscape. I will try to ask questions in a logical framework for my own benefit as well as perhaps to help you to construct and add to your own thinking on these matters.
I would like to start with this because it troubles me at the moment: I have been working on this euro problem for some time -- trying to make Americans more aware of what the events you so eloquently describe will mean to their financial well-being. As I am sure you are fully aware, the American media has done a very poor job on these matters of earthshaking importance. I recently read a New York Times opinion piece on the subject and was surprised to see that the word "gold" did not even appear in the text. I was interviewed for a national network radio program recently and mentioned in our conversation that I thought the introduction of the euro would be viewed by historians in the future as the most important event of the last quarter of the 20th century (not the sexual antics of our troubled president). The press is only now beginning to understand the import of these events but still they treat it with surface analysis. With that as background, let me ask my first question and it is an important one:
It seems that both you and your friend believe that the world is splitting up into currency/trading blocks -- much as the world did for both World Wars. There has been much discussion around the world about the imposition of a NEW WORLD ORDER and international one world government. Simultaneously, we see another, opposing force at work -- regionalism, nationalism, even tribalism. What do you make of this? Is the euro a child of the forces of the New World Order, or the forces of regionalism/nationalism/tribalism? Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States? If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan? And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia?
Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the euro currency will be gold backed. Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? Isn't it true that Japan imports nearly 100% of its oil? If what you say is true about future oil payments they will be forced to their own gold backed currency along the lines of Europe, and in the process unload the dollar as unwanted, unneeded currency. All of this, needless to say, is very bad for the dollar and perhaps you are right: A new, gold-backed dollar might be the necessary result. Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it simply a speculation on his part. One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS? The Swiss? The euro central banks? Who does BIS really represent? Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS? Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe?
Please speak to these issues so that we might proceed.
I do not mean to sound naive but much of this is new to me and I would like to know who the players are and where they stand vis a vis the United States.
I remain your friend,
Michael Kosares
5/5/98 USAGOLD
Dear ANOTHER, my great respect for you has just deepened further. Have a pleasant ten days and I will consider your words. Yes, we will talk over time. Thank you Mike Kosares
------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/5/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) USAGOLD QUESTIONS IN ITALICS
Mr. Kosares,
A few thoughts for you, as the questions are asked?
** It seems that both you and your friend believe that the world is splitting up into currency/trading blocks -- much as the world did for both World Wars. There has been much discussion around the world about the imposition of a NEW WORLD ORDER and international one world government. Simultaneously, we see another, opposing force at work -- regionalism, nationalism, even tribalism. What do you make of this? Is the Euro a child of the forces of the New World Order, or the forces of regionalism/nationalism/tribalism? **
Sir,
I would say, "Old World Order" to return. To understand/explain better: " A very easy way to view this "order", would be to simply say that the American Experience is reaching the end! As we know, world war two left Europe and the world economy destroyed. Many thinkers of that period thought that the world was about to enter a decades long depression as it worked to rebuild real assets lost in the conflict. It was this war that so impacted the idea of looking positively toward the future. The past ideals of building solid, enduring, long term wealth were lost in the conception of a whole generation possibly doing without! In these fertile grounds people escaped reality with the New Idea of long term debt, being held as a money asset. Yes, here was born the American Experience that comes to maturity today.
New world order, regionalism and tribalism are but modern phases that denote "group retreat to avoid paying up". The worldwide currency system is truly a reflection of an economy built from war, using the American Experience, the US$ and the debt that it represents. But, for the American dollar to continue as the representative of the global financial system, in the form of being the reserve currency, maturing generations of all countries must accept it, and the tax on real production it clearly imposes! In the very same mind set, that people buy the best value for the lowest price (Japan cars in the late 70s), and leave an established producer to die, so will they escape the American currency and accept any competitor that offers a better deal. Because we are speaking of currencies here, the transition will be brutal!
As you ponder these thoughts, consider that; all economies today are truly equal in production as the exchange rates are the manufactures of profit!"
** Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States?**
Sir, Yes, but not in the ways of war, as it is in the feelings of "pride" and "we go our own way". The downfall of the Russia, did allow for the Euro and all that it will build. They now see the debt of the US$, as a reserve money can be escaped! As even the US citizen will leave it's own workers to die as products are purchased "overseas", how much less will the world also flee the dollar! Opponents? No, I would say they are learners of the "American Way" as they embrace the "American Idea" of a "free world market economy".
*** If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan? And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia? **
Sir, I feel he is correct in this thought. Europe does grasp for a relationship with Asia as the US did have with the Japan. It would build a mighty economy on a foundation of oil and gold as backing for new money. As China and Arabia was once a part of the Europe economy, in a small way. They may now return with no fear of Russia. Britain? A lost nation. Japan? This one is "of the American Economy" and is to live and die by it! They will seek your Alaska oil before loss of face with gold. A dead Yen be a dead Japan.
**Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the Euro currency will be gold backed. Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? **
Perhaps, they be like Korea? Rich in paper until the world says, "this paper, it is not good"!
***Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it simply a speculation on his part. ***
The BIS is the gold broker for all interbank sales/purchases. Bullion Banks are for sales to other entities. I think, at first, China was leverage against the oil producers. Then Arabia was allowed into BIS for Euro.
**One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS?**
Perhaps, "who control them"?
**The Swiss? Yes.
**The eurocentral banks? Yes.
**Who does BIS really represent? "old world, gold economy, as viewed thru modern eyes" or " way to move from US$ without war".
**Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS? answered.
**Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe? Yes.
Sir, there is much more to this, but we talk over time, yes? I will be away for perhaps ten days. We speak again.
Thank You
CoBra(too) (1/2/04; 18:15:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 114495)
@ Solomon Weaver
Not really answering your question - though ranting a bit - as I don't care about any relative gains - No Mo'!.
Only sorry for the J6P's falling for the same touting as in the late 90's. The fall will be the final straw "breaking the camel's back" ... Meaning the Greenspan bubbles of debt, financial assets and housing.
The tide has turned to hard assets - and the rest of the world will play along, only as seen opportune - as the producers of real "Things" had met their fate with the IMF, WB and went broke. For the wrong reasons - and what's really important for accepting IOU's, id est debt paper of paupers. Sounds harsh? It is, as it is scary!
Though, it still looks like a solid year of gains on all financial fronts. Even considering the US dollar has lost some 40% (since its high at roughly 120+ on the NDX), primarily against its main contender, the €. Solid gains on sick foundations!
A real and true Snow Job!
The Snow job of an ongoing strong dollar policy is wearing a bit thin. Even the proclaimed controlled depreciation of the dollar vs its contenders is rather resembling a free fall and the FED stands pat, having long spent their last bullet. The rest is lip service and, forgive me to say so, green-mail!
No way, we can give up the delusion of prosperity, no inflation and general economic performance in an election year. We'd rather sink the US, its economy and the rest of it into total indebtness - don't worry we're there anyway - before we'd give up our dominance of "Super Power" status. ... As we're holding the rest of the world at ransom to pay for it ... anyway ...
Hey, what a genial thought! It has been tried throughout history and always worked ... as the final catalyst to total doom.
... As we don't how this is going to end - we can only speculate and take a lead from history! Badly, may be a meliorative of financial, economic and ultimately social Armageddon in spe. A result, which I'd never want to envisage, though it seems given at this point, past any return.
The US can't honor their obligations ever, nor can anybody else - that is without hyperinflating same.
At one stage, of course, the delusions and hedonics of the system will surface, for all to see, and the rage will be on.
It will also be too late to protect the last (perceived) wealth of most, who haven't seen through this historical - though repetitive - scam as yet.
Got Gold - and don't ask about percentage gains in any (il-)Legal Tinder - cb2
21mabry (1/2/04; 17:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114494)
markets
Looking at the gains this year in financial markets everything was up stock,commodities,bonds.Gold was one of the best preformers along with silver.Most countries equity markets registered double digit gains some triple digit gains.To me this signals just how much liquidity there is in this world economy.It is a rising tide of money lifting all financial boats.This coming year will be a test to see who is right the austrians or the monetarists,If Greenspan can stop a global meltdown he has deafeted the economic wave cycle theories with monetary policies.21
TownCrier (1/2/04; 17:24:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 114493)
Central Bank Insider -- fresh copy
http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.html
excerpt:
BANKNOTES AND THE GLASS OF WATER TEST
In an effort to foil counterfeiters and promote the use of vending machines, Vietnam said on Thursday it will introduce a 500,000 dong ($32) currency note, redesign its 50,000 dong note and mint three types of coins.
Central bank governor Le Duc Thuy said the changes were designed "to make the money structure more reasonable and to better fight against counterfeits". He also said the new Australian-made polymer-based notes were more durable, dipping one specimen into a glass of water to demonstrate. "People selling vegetables and fish in the market will be very happy with this money," he said to laughter.
---
See url for more "aspects of central banking that are frequently neglected", courtesy of our friends at Central Banking Publications Ltd.
R.
Solomon Weaver (1/2/04; 16:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114492)
The end of a nice year with lots of new dollars printed
December 31, 2003
The Dow and the S&P 500 ended the year with modest gains while the Nasdaq closed lower. The total returns for the year are shown below.
1 Year Return
S&P 500 28.7%
Nasdaq 50.8
Dow 28.3
Russell 2000 47.3
Morgan Stanley High Tech 66.0
Morgan Stanley Consumer Index 13.3 Banks 34.4
Brokers 60.4
Internets 78.9
Gold Bug Index 68.6
. . .
Well, a lot of folks out there made a lot more paper dollars this year...I hope they have the forsight to convert some paper profits into tangible assets....
Can anyone on the forum offer a to expand this list by showing how the 4 precious metals did against all that paper?
Poor old Solomon
steady (1/2/04; 16:53:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 114491)
significant ratio event
today the gold silver ratio dropped below 70 for the first time in a long time.
will gold drag silver higher or will silver move ahead on its own merits?
we will see a 71 maybe 72 ratio one more time just to make sure every ounce has been concentrated into the proper strong hand recepticals for the long march back to 1) respectability 2) monetary awarness.
heck if it was good enuf for the greeks way back when b.c then its good enuff for me now.
lets watch this ratio play unfold.
for me price is almost irrelevant( just affects how much i can get) whats important is buying on the right ratio increase and riding each decrease.. got silver?
Operative (1/2/04; 14:11:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 114490)
Possible Air Terror Plot Details
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/UStravel.htm#SO2
Possible Air Terror Plot Details
Snip:
2 January 2004-- Amid numerous international flights being escorted by F-16's, delayed or outright cancelled, network analysts have been reviewing a number of Internet communications and images that might just contain clues to the "intended targets" of terrorists. Text posted on Internet forums by two separate sources, combined with the images below that appear on a website and accessible through the search terms "Ahlam hu Akbar" on that site found the following combination of images..."
Comment: The media seems perplexed with all the concern about recent airlines and terrorism. The above link may provide some insight into what is behind all this Homeland attention to the skies.
Operative (1/2/04; 14:06:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 114489)
@ Kilo
Thank you for the graphic image of 1 Trillion. While imagining trekking over the Alps, through the jungles, and humping across the deserts for my 2 1/2 trips, I began to wonder how long before it would actually take a trillion to pay for such an excursion. No so far in the distant future maybe?
Cytek (1/2/04; 13:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114488)
@Goldilox
Good article and post. My wife is a loan officer and she is saying that the same people that she re-financed last year at all time low rates are coming back to her to re-finance again and pull more equity out of their houses and willing to get into an ARM. But she is finding the same people have run their credit cards up to the limit agian and have little or no equity to pull out of their houses ... or the same people that never had credit problems or late pays now have several late pays on their filled up credit cards. And the banks are saying NOT.
If housing values go down and a high percentage of households go into negative equity in their houses, what will the banks due? Due they want their houses, will forclosures reach an all time high. I think the next couple of years will get very interesting to say the least.
Kilo (1/2/04; 12:30:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114486)
Operative - Comprehend this........
One trillion dollars in newly printed, crisp, fresh one dollar bills, the ones that stack nicely with no wrinkles, would stretch 2 1/2 times around the circumference of the earth, or about 62,000 miles !!!!!
Mr Gresham (1/2/04; 12:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114485)
MK
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
That chart that pops up on your news page looks like a big, toothy smile to me.
(Now, that's probably because I had all that corrective, ah, "dental" work done way down in the middle of it. Seemed expensive at the time...but now, I'M grinning!)
Of course, to some certain others, it might seem like Jaws, coming at them with its own razor-sharp, jagged "smile" to rip them a new, uh, portfolio allocation?
Happy New Year, my friend! You deserve a good one!
(However, I shall be on watch for when you are invited onto CNBC, just as when Prince John used to invite Robin over for lunch, y'know. "Oh, just a friendly little chat...about interests we share." It can bode no good! ;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/2/04; 12:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114484)
An Invitation to Prospective Clients....
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
Goldilox (1/2/04; 11:42:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114482)
More borrowers turn to ARMs
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0102arms02.html
snippit:
Thomas A. Fogarty
USA Today
Jan. 2, 2004 12:00 AM
"Adjustable-rate mortgages are thriving these days even as interest rates remain low. Normally, borrowers gravitate to ARMs in large numbers when interest rates start upward, or remain persistently high. Following form, a spike in interest rates last summer sparked the latest move to ARMs. What's unusual: The proportion of ARM borrowers remains high today even though the 30-year fixed rate has been close to 6 percent since August.
Goldilox:
The US homebuyer flocks to the lowest rate to get the most house for the least out-of-pocket money. All the hoopla about "no inflation" is having its desired effect, as folks continue to bet their future against potential for rising rates. The double whammy of rising costs and falling income is going to shock a lot of mainstream news junkies.
These folks are going to be hopping mad and looking desperately for scapegoats. Get OUT of debt, store food, water and PMs.
Operative (1/2/04; 10:19:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114481)
THE US DOLLAR OUTLOOK FOR 2004Q1
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/105754/content.asp?menu=forecasts&banner=fxcm10
THE US DOLLAR OUTLOOK FOR 2004Q1
Snip:
In recent months, the decline in the US dollar has been hitting the headlines of all major financial publications. Since the beginning of this year, the trade weighted dollar index has fallen over 14%, while declining 20% against the euro. Based upon both technical and fundamental analysis, the collapse in the dollar is expected to continue. However, the dollar's weakness against currencies such as the EURUSD, are at very extreme levels, suggesting that a need for a meaningful correction cannot be overstated. This implies that volatility will be the theme in the first quarter of 2004.
What we have seen in 2004 is that a rebounding economy does not necessarily translate into a strengthening dollar. A widening current account deficit that is funded primarily by foreign central banks will continue to exert downward pressure on the US dollar. Before elaborating on the outlook for the US dollar, we will first recap the forces that pushed the dollar lower throughout 2003.
Comment: Worthy of a cup of coffee since not much else appears to be happening today.
MK (1/2/04; 10:12:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 114480)
News & Views Updated
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Breaking News!
Gold Defies 2003 Expectations, Hits Record (FT)
Year End Chart AU
Top Gold Stories for Friday, January 2, 2004
You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.
This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.
Operative (1/2/04; 09:58:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114479)
December Manufacturing ISM Report
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB012004.htm
The link provides a little more depth to the CNBC cheerleaders hawking of the great number today. Some notables to be found are:
* Prices continue to increase. (Hey, I thought there was no inflation!)
* Photographic equipment demand increases. ( Why is Kodak stock in the slumps then?) ( OH, it must be all the spy cameras that Homeland in installing.)
* Corrogated Cardboard is down! ( Lets see, companies improving profits of all these increased orders by not packaging them before shipment?)
Based on the lackluster holiday season sales, my guess is that increases are due to: DoD orders, rebuilding of Iraq, Homeland Security budgets, and the 3.7 million my local govt spent on paving 1 mile of highway just down the road. Took about 3 months to do this....tell me about those productivity figures again!!
DryWasher (1/2/04; 09:42:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 114478)
Arnold Declares Fiscal Crisis in California
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/02/politics/main591108.shtml
Snips:
"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared Thursday the state faces a fiscal crisis and ordered payments to cities and counties without legislative approval."
"Democrats spent Thursday morning meeting behind closed doors to consider their response."
DryWasher Comment:
The spending and finger pointing continues in California. Both Democrats and Republicans are counting on the voters to bail them out by approving a $15 billion bond and new spending limits package which is to be on the March ballot. This will be a big news issue in the next few months.
I expect the Federal Government to ultimately decide that California is too big to allow it to fail and will in some way save them by creating the needed money out of thin air just as is done to finance the federal overspending. And what about the other 49 states?
More sound reasons to protect your savings by holding them in physical Gold.
Shanti (1/2/04; 09:25:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114477)
ECB holding now 20% GOLD
http://www.ecb.int/stats/reserves/reserves.htm#tab
To all : Best wishes, good health and a prosperious 2004 !
Noticed that ECB holds now 20% GOLD & GOLD instruments in their reserve portefolio. They started with only 15%....
Briliant posting on IR's Sir Belgian !
Sal-OM All !!
Shanti
Goldilox (1/2/04; 09:21:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114476)
Forbidden Retirement - new form of conscription
snippit:
"Chief Warrant Officer Ronald Eagle, an expert on enemy targeting, served 20 years in the military -- 10 years of active duty in the Air Force, another 10 in the West Virginia National Guard. Then he decided enough was enough. He owned a promising new aircraft-maintenance business, and it needed his attention. His retirement date was set for last February.
Staff Sgt. Justin Fontaine, a generator mechanic, enrolled in the Massachusetts National Guard out of high school and served nearly nine years. In preparation for his exit date last March, he turned in his field gear -- his rucksack and web belt, his uniforms and canteen.
Staff Sgt. Peter G. Costas, an interrogator in an intelligence unit, joined the Army Reserve in 1991, extended his enlistment in 1999 and then re-upped for three years in 2000. Costas, a U.S. Border Patrol officer in Texas, was due to retire from the reserves in last May.
According to their contracts, expectations and desires, all three soldiers should have been civilians by now. But Fontaine and Costas are currently serving in Iraq, and Eagle has just been deployed. On their Army paychecks, the expiration date of their military service is now listed sometime after 2030 -- the payroll computer's way of saying, 'Who knows?'"
Goldilox:
Once signed, reservists are finding there's no way out - EVER. Another great idea in 2003 was "fast track citizenship" for illegal immigrant fighters. Shades of Rome? Free citizenship for conquered soldiers who switch allegiances to help conquer new foreign lands.
Many reservists who went to Iraq with high expectations of a quick "police action" are becoming disillusioned by the growing Viet-Nam-like experience in Iraq. This makes it harder to replace them as they come home and share their experiences with their peers.
Operative (1/2/04; 09:14:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114475)
Citigroup Top Underwriter of Record $4.938 Trillion Global Debt
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAKWRLBYOD.html
Citigroup Top Underwriter of Record $4.938 Trillion Global Debt
Snip:
NEW YORK (Dow Jones/AP) - Low interest rates and a recovering economy fueled a record $4.938 trillion in global private-sector bond sales for 2003.
The figure, released Wednesday by Thomson Financial Securities Data, includes issuance of corporate debt, federal agency debt, taxable municipal bonds, debt backed by mortgages and debt backed by assets such as credit card receivables and home equity loans.
By comparison, issuance in 2002 totaled $3.938 trillion, according to Thomson. In 1990, global private sector debt issuance stood at just over $500 billion, or about one-tenth of this year's level.
Nearly 60 percent of the total debt sold in 2003 was issued by companies located in the Americas."
Comment: Hope all those bankers keep thier super Cray computers tweaked to keep up with all of this. As for me, I am still trying to comprehend what a trillion is.
Belgian (1/2/04; 09:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114474)
@Spartacus
No Sir, the dollar will lose its reserve-status only if the (euro) alternative is fully ready for the dollar replacement. The dollar (1,26) can (and most probably will) go lower than the 1995 low (1,40) without necessary losing its reserve status. Abruptly rising $-IRs will signal that we are relatively close to the probable $>€ transition. FED and ECB still do coordinate their dollar-support efforts as to buy time for the dollar and the euro as well. The cooperation (rivalry) between IMF and BIS are much more difficult to guess.
Goldilox (1/2/04; 08:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114473)
$ down, gold down
$ @ 86.56, gold @ $414.7
Is this an effort by traders to suggest that they are NOT coupled, or am I just spooked by all the different messages that attempt to link every move?
Spartacus (1/2/04; 07:48:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114472)
@ Belgian (1/2/04; 04:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 114468)
Ok, are You saying that, when the bondmarket has had enough and therefore market rates starts to rise in earnest and the FED can / will not hike the fed funds rate, the US dollar will decline substantially and eventually lose its reserve status.
Belgian (1/2/04; 04:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 114468)
@Spartacus
IR (interest rates) have become a very complicated and extremely confusing, thing. The many different parameters, that determine the IRs, do change (alter) dramatically in importance in time. The present 45 year low IRs must be seen in the framework of dollar-defense, including the Japanese zero-rates as dollar ally. The ECB has been relatively accomodative, so far (dollar-support).
If and when, IRs on the dollar go out of the FED's control, I dare to conclude that the dollar defense dam has been broken. Rising $-IRs are a disaster for all dollar-paper-debt (bondprices crashing). A general outbreak of price-hyper-inflation. Crashing stock markets. Higher IRs on the debtbergs, mean faster and bigger $-confetti growth.
The extremely low and contained IRs of today, do help the *orderly* devaluation of the dollar (26% against the euro-65% against Gold).
Once IRs should start rising "abruptly" (emphasis on abruptly), market forces are breaking the FED coerced discipline. There will be dollar-panic.
Abandon the dollar ship !
It happened during the prémature hyper-inflation run in the eighties. IRs of 14% > 16% and a dollar-crash against Gold (850$/Oz) and a stock market going nowhere. That was a great lesson . Today, the dollar devalues orderly thanks to a rising stock market and hibernated IRs. But it is still about that same old dollar-wine (dollar devaluation), but in new bags.
In general...in a Free market..., rising IRs, are the clearest sign of distrust in the underlying (weakening) currency. But IRs have become 100% "political" for no other reason than the intrinsic worthlessness of the fiat confetti, being nothing else than a trade-numeraire, rather than an indication of one's wealth . When politics (FED) leave the IRs to the market forces...I conclude that the political backers of the dollar currency are giving up on the dollar defense and throw the towel in the ring.
IR-sentiment will (imo) change when the 10 yr UST pierces through the 6%.
A big question remains about the real purposes of the political management of IRs : Is it a monetary thing or an economical one ? Are IRs affecting your currency or/and your economy !? I stick to the IR-dollar(devaluation) link.
A devaluation against the <oil-gold-euro> asset-trio with the so called "dormant" price-inflation. Rising (spiking) IRs are going to change the general perceptions on the dollar currency.
New (possible) rate cuts and further dollar exch. rate decline in '04, are further confirmation of the dollar-debt-driven, political economy that, cost what it may cost, must be kept afloat. How will a stagnant economy affect the dollar's worth ? In a stagnant global economy, dollar-debt, weights heavier and heavier, even with low IRs. It is all in that notion of "debt-driven" economy, that the dollar is entangled. I conclude that, if things stay what they are, we cannot afford any rise in IRs, economically and monetarelly. That's why a rise in IRs, NOW, would be a very significant signal.
Spartacus (1/2/04; 02:23:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114467)
Belgian (1/1/04; 15:37:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 114445)
"As soon as the dollar rises IRs, we have evidence of throwing the towel into the ring."
Could You perhaps explain more on this subject...
Waverider (1/2/04; 01:39:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 114466)
The return of gold
http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=27&story=31143
"Why has the price of gold risen by 20 per cent in 2003, and why is it poised to breach an eight-year high? Simply put, gold has gained in lustre with every drop in the value of the dollar against other currencies. Gold is, after all, as much an international currency as the dollar. But there's another, more fundamental reason for the added sheen on gold. That reason lies in the reflation policy pursued by the world's central banks, which have released a flood of money into the markets and lowered interest rates dramatically...But apart from these superficial reasons, there's a real message that the rising gold prices are conveying to the world — the dollar will have to fall much more before global economic imbalances are redressed. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that the process will be smooth, which is why gold has once again assumed its function as a safe haven for investors."
physicalman (1/2/04; 00:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114465)
Interesting read
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20031231-022848-9155r
Just one possible future for this once great land
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
