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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/2/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Topaz (03/02/03; 23:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98757)
cyberbat...what price Gold?
The trick imo is to regard "your" physical Gold as "priceless"... if you're talking about PoG then look no further than the timing of Dollar falls over the last 12 Mth's.
All things being equal, (no shocks) the next leg down will be May-June (PoG to 400)
It's designed to bolster repatriation of O/S currencies so the Q2 DoW reporting gets a kick along. They may even do it for Q1.

The way it's shaping though, I doubt "things" will remain "equal".

Noble1 (03/02/03; 23:50:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 98756)
The Begining of the End of the NWO?
Seems that this fracture in the UN regarding the invasion of Iraq could result in US going it alone and would represent a major disregard for UN resolutions that would result in a major NWO setback. That's what has kept GB from going it alone. The NWO wants to represent a consensus not a dictum. Bush is a NWO kinda guy. What would happen if Saddam declared that there would be "nuclear disasters"(ala NK) around the world should we invade? We would be there tonight to everybodies delight(regardless of UN sayso) saving the world. The NWO outside of the USA would frown(and save face locally) but would accept the action. But nay, Saddam has acceded to our every demand. 150+ inspectors have had unimpeded access and turned up nothing. The problem is that he is cooperating! Oh, a few missiles that travel 95 instead of 85 miles or something like that. Big threat. He is destroying those missiles. What else are we fed? That his WMD float around the world hidden in ships on the high seas. Why have we not stopped and searched those ships as we did when we found the hidden N. Korean missiles? Our intelligence is capable of tracking every major vessel on the globe.
Don't get me wrong. Saddam is our enemy. We have had many international enemies in the past. But, we have not gone to war with them without direct provocation. This military action is not about disarmament(we can get that from current actions), it is about oil and USD dominance as the world's de facto reserve currency.
I think Turkey's USA/IMF/GrBr/NWO rejection may establish a negative precedant with regard to UN dictates. We(IMF) thought we could buy(control) anybody.
GrBr's old money is closely associated with our Fed, but their new money seems to want to lean toward the Euro. Major Euro participants prefer no war. Only the USA and it's closest of allies favor(will not dissapprove of) going in.
What's all this got to do with the price of tea in China(gold)? Well, the IMF/USD/paper dominance is being challenged by the establishment of the BIS/Euro/paper/GOLD players to compete on the same playing field. The Euro team understands that gold plays an important role with the Giants and is offering a gold kicker with their fiat.
These 30 ton transactions do not represent our(USAG)trades. The Giants are absorbing all that is offered at higher and higher prices. Producer hedges are being wound down. AG will be stepping down soon and leaving this USD mess to a fall guy. Unless, of course, we are willing to believe his old philosophy, as well as his recent verbage, that gold should play a role in US monetary policy. Perhaps that will be his saving legacy. To reestablish gold's monetary role and save the USD from oblivion. Given the respect he has, he could do it. I don't think a new guy could sell it.
Anyway, if we go in and whack Saddam, with UN approval, then happy days are here again. USD dominates(temporarily).
If we go in, without the UN's blessing:
1)we kick butt
A)world(UN) accepts=USD dominates(temporarily)
B)world(UN) whines=they lean toward euro/gold
2)we get involved in a drawn out urban/terrorist war
A)=B)=world will abandon us and we are SOL as far as USD is concerned
Any which way it goes, we're #$%^&*(.
People favor the underdog. If the USA has to go in to the later rounds fighting this war, the sentiment will quickly turn against us and we will find ourselves wanting. After all, what can the Arabs et. al. get from us for their oil that they can't get from Europe or Asia? A currency with intrinsic value? Ha Ha! They can demand and get what they want from us. We're lucky that their current regimes want what we have to offer. The Euro is not perfect but it's gold component does add some stability. The Euro members have everything to offer them except perhaps the military might. Wait a minute. We and the Euro block are supposed to be allies. We should not be comparing military might. Ah, times do change. The Arabs have indicated that they will only hang with us as long as we have UN backing. If we go in to Iraq without it, a mideast crisis seems assured. And what about Israel? Seems like they've been active but not getting much attention. I don't think the Euro block is as willing to back the Jewish interest as we are. Who will the Arabs favor in this situation? Can you blame them? Given all the aforementioned as well as our ongoing and increasing budget deficits, our ongoing and increasing current account deficit, as well as our ongoing and increasing national deficit, our dollar will succumb to these pressures. Regardless of the outcome of this military confrontation, our dollar is destined to weaken.
Enough of this rant. Can't think anymore. Time to go to bed. More Later.

Remember: While paper burns, gold only melts.

Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 23:39:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 98755)
Misetich, and gata folks
Hi Misetich,
I did want to give you the last word option, and you did pose a question or two, here is a link that was an offshoot of the Town Crier post below. Relates to one issue you raised.
--"The gold price had previously risen by about $ 80 in summer 1993. Then the FED and the Treasury decided to suppress the gold price in order to benefit the banking system, which would otherwise have suffered huge losses as a result of short positions. A further objective was to defend the US dollar as a reserve currency within the central banking system.
Presumably, the gold price manipulation had a bearing on exchange rates, interest rates, indebtedness, money flows, the trade deficit, artificial wealth and the stock market bubble. Dimitri Speck"--
(This defense of the dollar as reserve currency mentioned above, is supported still by the Central Banks of the world and a recent gold sale by Portugal is a confirmation of that. It is my guess that the euro boys are not interested in a gold system either. If they were ever to somehow get reserve currency status, if they werent destroyed in the process, they would want the ability to deficit spend like we get to do here. They are not more honest, there is no evidence of that ! What in the world is bill murphy thinking? That some new dawn will come if the US drops the ball and as you say "the EU is the new superpower" actually happens? As the WHO song says, "here is the new boss, same as the old boss" And THEY will manipulate the gold price !
Why do you think they wont? One fiat to another, what gold utopia? It is part of that poorly thought out gata thinking.
Not only is history not a factor in the analysis, but the future beyond the supposed chaos is not analyzed !
Just that rooting for skyrocketing gold price.

Your recent post below was qoutes from.......
--"Mahathir Mohamad said;
?When we put too much value on a certain currency, it becomes very powerful and that currency actually works against us,?"--
(Mahathir might be shocked to discover that no matter what currency gets reserve currency duties, HIS country will be stuck in the same boat it is now.)
--"He added that since no nation would like ?just one single policeman in the world,? the Euro, yen or even gold should be used for transactions."--
(mahathir, the french and germans have no military ! And the yen? Forget it, none of the Japs neighbors want to see Japan as the big policeman. Gold? what, is he going to throw gold at evil doers? Hard to replace the US as world cop.)
--"There is nothing to back the US dollar other than people?s belief in it,? he added."--
(mahathir's theory on using gold for trade was debunked here within the last couple weeks convincingly. I guess his comments are his attempt to educate the Central Bankers of the world. I dont expect to see him holding a class at the next g-7 summit !)

Gandalf the White (03/02/03; 22:32:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 98754)
TAAAA TAAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html
UP-DATE of Listings as of SUNDAY 3/2/03 22:30 Denver Time !

VISIT the CONTEST Link above for ALL the data.

NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications !

**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)

**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)

**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)
**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)

**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525

**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)

**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)

**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)

**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)

**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)

**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)

**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)

**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)

**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)

**** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)

Apr 03 HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's Open Interest 107869

Sir Kevin$ is now "King of the Hill" on 2/28/03


a nation of one (03/02/03; 22:27:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98753)
pog

Sorry about my negative note. I'm often wrong. But I don't think there is any reason for genuine pessimism, even if my expectations are correct. What seems important to me is that people's general interest in gold's potential is picking up. I think I am seeing an ongoing, steady, long term increase in this factor, which I believe is one of the most reliable, and one of the most easily recognizable, indicators. Internet financial pages, newspapers, magazines, tv news shows have all made increasingly positive implicative statements referring to gold. These are minor referrences. But there is no question that big money fully understands that gold is headed higher. The public is informed last. And it is informed in a controlled way, according to the interests of strongly monied hands, such that, as gold heats up, more and more of the public will be drawn in, in increasing numbers. This same thing happens in stocks and -I suspect- in every similar type market from time to time.

a nation of one (03/02/03; 22:12:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98752)
To Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 22:04:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98749)

"Heck, any comments you make ... are ... welcome ...."

--Thanks. I'll keep that in mind.


a nation of one (03/02/03; 22:09:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98751)
Reply to cyberbat (03/02/03; 21:30:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98746)
your interesting remark: "...I've played this game for 20 years and just about figured the only way to make any money is when gold has been shorted just a hair too much then one could go long. Any thoughts or speculation from anyone on what the right price is for the enemy?"

--I expect 325 or lower, then back, maybe. I think 317 is below the most reasonable level of support. Somewhere around 330 should be the new support, if the rule is true that resistance levels become support levels when the price moves above them.

Black Blade (03/02/03; 22:09:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98750)
Rising oil prices could sink economy running on empty
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/134644367_econoil02.html

Snippit:

The sign in front of a gas station in Pacifica, Calif., is evidence of the current spike in oil prices, which has contributed to a global economic slowdown. The most common cause of recessions, a surge in oil prices, is afflicting the global economy again. Just as they have before every American downturn over the past 40 years, energy costs have increased significantly in the past year, capped by a sharp spike since December. With more money being spent on gasoline and heating fuel, economic growth has slowed in the United States and Europe, and the uneven recovery that began in late 2001 is facing perhaps its biggest threat yet. "The economy is extremely fragile," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a research company in West Chester, Pa. "We've got some real problems if this drags on for any length of time." Since World War II, every time that oil prices have increased by at least 60 percent, a recession has occurred in the United States, with the exception of a one-month blip in oil prices in 1987. The current annual increase is similar in size to the jumps of late 1990, when a recession was starting, and the summer of 2000, nine months before another began. Higher energy costs reduce economic growth by effectively forcing families and businesses to send more money to a small number of oil-producing countries, leaving less for goods and services that create jobs at home. About one-third of Americans say the recent spike has caused them "financial hardship," according to a recent Gallup poll. More than one-quarter said they thought gas prices would be near their current level six months from now, and about one-half said they would increase. "I think it's going to get much worse," Teri Chavez, a public-relations executive in Denver, said as she filled the tank of her blue Volvo station wagon last week. "Does it mean that I'm going to stop driving? No. But I might think twice before I take my car up in the mountains."

Black Blade: It's going to get much worse as inventories tighten and production declines. The current recession could last for years.



Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 22:04:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98749)
A Nation of One
Greeting ANoO,
Out of the box thinking is something that can and does work in your favor. No surprise then that you found yourself here, where folks strive for answers that are not readily provided in many other places. Heck, any comments you make
from left or any field are a welcome part of the wild wide view we get here of the unfolding, barely in control, momentous, very relevant titanic struggle for economic advantage.

Sundeck (03/02/03; 21:56:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98748)
Cyberbat #98746 What price gold?
Cyberbat,

Good question.

Without inside information it is impossibile to predict the machinations of the big players.

However, FWIW gold has followed a fairly close (statistical)relationship with the USDX over the last couple of years. With the USDX at 100, I feel it is unlikely that the POG will stray below $340 for more than a few days at a time without recovering.

As I see it, with the USDX at 100, "fair value" for gold is between about $340 and $370.

As always IMO only and DYODD

Cheers

:-)

Gandalf the White (03/02/03; 21:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 98747)
ATTENTION Sir Kahulik ---- RULE related to why YOU bought the .....
kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)
===
3) MOST IMPORTANTLY, your "confession" as an entry in the ESSAY portion of the contest must accompany the Price prognostication.

An essay contest in answering the following (in more than 30 words):
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . ."
===
I shall await your "confession" before accepting your POG entry !
<;-)

cyberbat (03/02/03; 21:30:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98746)
What price Gold
I just took a look at the gold charts and noticed we are again down a hefty $3.50 oz. With that in mind does anyone have an idea as to when the fed and hedgers (both are joined at the hip) would be satisfied with a price that they have papered down gold to ? 300.00 may be too dangerous to short but would 320 to 325 be about right ?
I've played this game for 20 years and just about figured the only way to make any money is when gold has been shorted just a hair too much then one could go long.
Any thoughts or speculation from anyone on what the right price is for the enemy?

Sundeck (03/02/03; 21:24:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 98745)
Mikal #98743 - Japan's dollar reserves
Mikal

Option (a)? Nope! I thought they had already run out of trees. Turned them first into rice farms and then into golf courses. :-) Instead of paper, 'though, Japan could use polymer notes (like Australia) made from imported coal or petroleum. At the moment they are able to buy lots of petroeum and coal with their increasing dollar reserves. However, countries that provide Japan with oil and coal are going to start squeeling about contracts written in dollars because those country's "commodity currencies" are appreciating against the dollar, which means they get less and less in terms of their own currencies for their exports.

Option (b)? Definitely a goer! Perhaps this is why Japan is buying some Euros along with its pile of dollars; just in case the tectonic plates lurch suddenly, the dollar is subducted and Euro heaves further into view, hot and smoking, but ready for colonisation!

Option (c)? Yes, an outside chance. Worth including in your quinella or trifecta bet. After all, the financial plates are on the move and separating, and more than one may be a viable place to store your assets. So far as I know, it is not ordained that there be just ONE reserve currency for the world? Gold could be important in a Dinar scenario.

Option (d)? Ahhh...yes. Fashion! It is easier to conform with the fashion than run against it. But fashion is fickle. Once some subtle changes occur the herd switches rapidly to the new regime. But not anyone can be the instrument of change. And also the herd has to be tired of the old regime. We are seeing some leaders in the new fashion, are we not? Russia? Malaysia? Small, but influential fashion houses. Yes, I see fashion playing a role.

Option (e)? A major act of god? God forbid! However, if one should occur it could provide an "excuse" for Japan to restructure parts of its economy of necessity, in ways less dependent upon exports to the US and more dependent upon "domestic consumption" and/or self-sufficiency. It could "relieve the inertia for change" in Japan.

Option (f)? It's hard to imagine that none of the above factors will play a role, but there may well be additional ones.

:-)

Sundeck

a nation of one (03/02/03; 20:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98744)
Reply to Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 09:19:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98720)

To fully appreciate my postings, you need to understand that I am not formally schooled in any branch of finance but have been very interested in stock markets since about the age of 17, and I have eagerly, and consistently, kept up with it since then. That was about 45 years ago. In addition to this, my ideas are flavored with a tendency to prefer unconventional beliefs, not just to be different, but because what most people believe seems to me to be profoundly deficient, in terms of its relation to reality. I don't condemn the people themselves for this. I just don't agree with their ideas. There is a surprising reason for this, but I won't go into it. Further, my intention is to understand and to convey understandings about the way market really work. It is because of this mix of ingredients, in my style, that my postings might sometimes seem uninformed, for what most people know and take for granted I often have discarded, or have not even seen. And because my activities have always tended to be outside the norm -I guess that's one way to say it, since they are often perceived that way by others- what is typically considered to be established wisdom and sure knowledge, I consider to be neither certain nor wise. Often, I have gotten into trouble because of this, on account of being mistaken. But there have indeed been times -and this is what makes it worthwhile- when I have understood something in a new way and it was such an improvement it was shocking. The reason I post at all, knowing that sometimes I will appear to be an idiot, is to pass these on, so that I will have some reason for my existence. Of course it is no coincidence that my interests are currently concentrated in gold, and that many others here at this forum are also thought of as 'bugs'.


mikal (03/02/03; 20:21:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 98743)
@Sundeck
Re: "How long is Japan going to keep buying dollar reserves?"
Choose from one or more of the following multiple choice answers:
a) Until they run out of trees
b) Until oil is priced in Euros
c) Until oil is priced in Dinars
d) Until it is no longer fashionable to do so
e) Until the next Tsunammi, earthquake or other natural or manmade catastrophe
f) None of the above

Sundeck (03/02/03; 19:56:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98742)
Dollar up, but Japan intervention effect fading
http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/retirement/newswire/2003/03/02/rtr894552.html
Snip:

"
TOKYO, March 3 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up against the yen and the euro in early Asian trade on Monday, adding to gains made after Japanese authorities revealed late last week that they had intervened in the market to stem the yen's further rise.

But traders said the confirmation was not a surprise and it was unlikely to weaken the yen much further.

"Everybody suspected they had intervened and the confirmation only made it official," said a trader at a major Japanese bank. "The market is not going to trade on this."

The Bank of Japan revealed in a monthly report that it had sold 513 billion yen ($4.34 billion) in February's interventions compared with 678 billion yen in January.

The Ministry of Finance confirmed that it had asked the BOJ to step into the market a few times in late February and that it bought both dollars and euros, but the euro buying had been "far less" than the buying of dollars for yen.

"

Sundeck: Buying about $5B per month to prop up the dollar. How long is Japan going to keep growing dollar reserves?

Black Blade (03/02/03; 19:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98741)
Gasoline Price at a Record, With Drive Season Still Months Away
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/nrg2/topnew/enews.cgi?ptitle=Oil%20News&touch=1&T=enews_story.ht&s=EmJeaUbGttXVsaRY4

Snippit:

Chicago, March 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail gasoline prices, up 45 percent in the past year, have further to climb, analysts said. After all it's only March. Gasoline prices are at a record for this time of year, and they typically rise from now until summer as weather warms and people drive more. The retail gasoline price has risen an average of 15 percent from February to May the past five years, according to government data. ``I think you can expect to see steadily rising prices,'' said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York, which markets gasoline and heating oil to local distributors. ``The gasoline picture looks like it's going to be very lean for quite some time.'' U.S. inventories of gasoline are below a year ago and falling, while supplies of crude oil have been pinched for three months by a strike in Venezuela. ``This is the time of year when typically you have high stocks and you're building,'' said Steven Strongin, head of commodities research at Goldman, Sachs & Co. ``This year, it's hard to figure out how you're going to build them.'' Refiners are passing along the rising cost of crude, which this week touched $39.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level since Iraq occupied Kuwait in 1990. ``Crude-oil inventories are dangerously low,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``We are only one small problem away from the minimum amount needed to operate the nation's refineries.''


Black Blade: Refiners are still working to build heating oil supply before maintenance shutdowns prior to gasoline production (various reformulated blends) for driving season. Looks like high gasoline prices will persist.


R Powell (03/02/03; 19:11:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 98740)
What did that masked man say?
TownCrier, may I restate the words of the masked man in 98730 to see if I have it right...

The bullion banks and Barrick set up a postponable forward sale arrangement in order to create a visible means of repayment for gold owed by the bullion banks to central banks. This allowed the central banks to keep the gold on their records as reserves.

So, with gold still on the books, the central banks are happy to get some interest on the lent out gold.

The bullion banks profit from the interest spread and have the option to call for at least fiat payment, if necessary, from Barrick. The "if necessary" might apply if lease rate renewals became too expensive.

Barrick has profited from the forward sales and may defer delivery into the forward sales for as long as necessary but may be subject to either a fiat repayment or, after notification, delivery set for a date 14 years forward. Also, Barrick is not under any margin requirements.

It may be that everyone involved benefited from this arrangement with the only risk being the actual availability of physical should the leases ever be terminated. That is, if physical was actually moved as opposed to the paper sale by the bullion banks of leased central bank gold. Perhaps both GATA and CPM are partially correct with 5,000 tonnes physically gone and paper liens for another 10,000 tonnes? Whatever the number and whether sold with physical delivery or on paper, the offsetting of these leases should move the POG.

If half the central bank gold is gone, I would guess that (with disclosure) the POG would move much higher but I've thought the same for years with silver and now wonder if a shortage in immediately deliverable silver will be necessary to really awaken the silver market. I know there is a world of difference between gold and silver but still wonder...
Thoughts?
Rich

Black Blade (03/02/03; 18:59:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 98739)
Global: When Shocks Matter
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030228-fri.html

Snippit:

Not all shocks are alike. Nor do they exert comparable impacts on macro economic performance. Shock analysis has two critical dimensions — the magnitude and duration of the shock itself, as well the pre-shock condition of the affected economy. On both counts, the oil shock of 2003 is extremely worrisome. That leads me to conclude that the risks of renewed recession in the US and in the US-centric global economy are high and rising.

There are times when it pays to be overly-simplistic on the global macro call. This is one of those times. Three key points are most obvious to me insofar as the cyclical prognosis for the world economy is concerned: First, in a US-centric world, the global call is basically a call on the US economy. Second, the US is in the midst of a classic oil shock. And, third, that shock has occurred at a point of maximum vulnerability — when a US-centric industrial world had slowed to a virtual standstill. The conclusion is inescapable: The recession warning model that I have long advocated is now flashing a serious alert for the US and for the US-centric global economy. A stalling economy lacks the cyclical immunities that cushion it from an unexpected blow. A stalling economy that has been hit by a shock is a recipe for recession. Unfortunately, it's that simple.

It's educated guesswork as to where oil prices are headed. It's a painful reality check to see where they have come from. Crude oil (WTI spot) prices have now pierced the $37 threshold — fully 89% above the level prevailing in January 2002. Moreover, as of the close of February 27, oil prices have now equaled the highs of $37.20 hit on September 20, 2000, that played an important role in triggering the recession of 2001. With oil inventories low, disruptions in Venezuela lingering, and war looming, the risk is that oil prices will move higher before they begin their fairly typical post-shock mean reversion. But those risks lie in a murky and uncertain future. At this point in time, the facts speak for themselves — an oil shock has already occurred.

In and of themselves, shocks don't always cause recessions. That's where pre-shock resilience comes into play — the economy's ability to withstand the blow of a shock. Sadly, the industrial world is far from being resilient at this point in time. The world's three largest economies — the United States, Japan, and Germany — were all in lousy shape as 2002 came to an end. The US economy inched ahead at just a 0.7% annual rate in 4Q02, and Germany's growth rate was estimated at "zero." Ironically, Japan was the strongest of the lot, with a +2.0% sequential annualized growth, but most have been quick to dismiss this estimate as statistical hocus-pocus for an otherwise weak Japanese economy (see Takehiro Sato's February 24 dispatch, "The National Accounts vs. Reality"). To me, the conclusion is inescapable: With the industrial world at its stall speed, the current oil shock — to say nothing of the related confidence shock — hurts a good deal more than would be had been the case in a more vigorous growth climate.


Black Blade: Stephen Roach points out that the energy crisis will crush the global economy. With oil production at near capacity and energy in general at high cost there will be no "economic recovery" this year, in the "second half", or next year.



Sundeck (03/02/03; 18:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 98738)
Top manager predicts a depression
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/5290493.htm
Some views of a successful boutique money manager from Florida...

Snip:

"

Since our last conversation in March of 2000, zero-coupon treasuries are up 43.5 percent. The S&P 500 Index is down 41 percent. He said long-term Treasury bond yields would drop from 6.15 percent then to 4.6 percent. They are now paying about 4.7 percent.

O'Higgins manages $200 million at his boutique investment firm in Miami Beach that caters to clients with assets of at least $1 million. He's been a top money manager for more than 20 years and has written best-selling investment books, Beating the Dow and Beating the Dow with Bonds. He's best known for his Dogs of the Dow theory, which worked well for quite a while when the market was still going up.

Today, O'Higgins won't touch a Dow stock or almost any other stock at current prices.

...

Right now, O'Higgins is only interested in gold, which he sees as undervalued and heading up because of deflation. ''Because it's real money, because it has held its value for thousands of years, because it's not subject to the manipulations of government or central banks or dishonest corporate executives,'' he says.

What's more, gold goes up when stocks go down. In 1929-1932, he notes that gold rose 69 percent. And indeed, in the last 12 months, it is up 20 percent. Yet its price is still far below what it traded for in 1980: $850, or roughly 2 ½ times higher than today's roughly $350 an ounce. Global supplies of gold, too, are dwindling.

...

He makes a convincing case, in charts and newspaper clippings, for his thought that there's little that will stop this downturn until the speculative bubble in stocks and spending is completely deflated.

It is not so, yet. For example, he notes that consumer spending has dropped in every recession since the 1950s, but not in this one. Stock valuations remain high, despite the long downturn.

"

Sundeck:

I guess it is a lot easier for the boutiques to move their assets around and take advantage of relatively small markets like gold and gold stocks. The problem the big firms have is that there is no game big enough at the moment in which they can all play...and win. The strategy is to minimise the rate at which public disillusionment (with recent successful investment strategies) sets in. Minimise outflows at all costs! The wise ones will get into gold while the price is still low.

:-)

Clink! (03/02/03; 16:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98737)
@Nemo
Why, do you think they missed all the gold depository certificates ?!

NEMO me impune lacessit (03/02/03; 16:09:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 98736)
Do You think they found it all ????
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6057256%255E13762,00.html
NEMO

ElGordo (3/2/03; 15:08:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 98735)
Car bomb in Venezuela
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030302/venezuela_bomb_2.html
CARACAS, Venezuela, March 2 (Reuters) - A car bomb exploded early on Sunday in the western Venezuelan oil city of Maracaibo, destroying three cars and damaging homes and a local office of the U.S. oil company Chevron Texaco (NYSE:CVX - News), police said.



GoldnSilver2002 (3/2/03; 14:26:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98734)
Speical notice from head of propaganda..all is well,goldbugs are nuts!
If the usd rallies,if the war is quick,if there is no terrorism,if there is no war,if there are no scanadals/bankrupcies,if oil goes down after the war then all the record debt will just magically disappear.What is wrong with you people,the time to invest in the down jones and nasdog has never been better.We have rising inflation,rising debt,rising unemployment and war/terrorism.We have geo political concerns,japan(number 2 economy) is broke,germany(number 3) in its worst state since ww2,argentina,venezuela,columbia,brazil.I just dont understand why people dont understand the market will just magically go up after the war based solely on no fundamental reasons whatsover.Dont worry about the middle east,north korea,iraq or the soon to collapse saudi arabian monarchy.We have russia,france ,germany and china all upset with the us and a printing machine running like no tommmorow.Now we find out trillions of usd are forgeries.

All this confuses me,dont you know wall st never lies, doesnt use false accounting(proforma) and they only have your best interest at heart.The real estate bubble can never pop,and oh ya so what if taxes are going up,thats a good thing isnt it?People are so silly,you would think by now they would know,gold is bad since it is the best performing asset for 2 years and if they just stick their head in the sand all this will go away.People argue just because the markets are going down 3 years running we are in a recession and that it may go down a fourth year.Cant you people see how much good news this is.Forget about history the world started in 1990 so thats as far back as any model should go,these nuts buying gold.They should be buying strong investments which are trustworthy like enron,worldcom,ual,tyco,adlephia,k mart etc.

Gold is bad because we cant print it'service charge it or make it disappear from your accounts.Dont you want big govt overspending your hard earned tax dollars and inflating away any savings you have.Dont you like fixed inflation numbers?I mean ,just think ,this is just the beginning of all the good news.So your retirement fund is losing 38 percent per year,just think in a couple of years it will be zero and then you dont have to worry about it anymore.What do people need money for anyway?You can feed your childern with debt,clothe them ,house them and put them through school all with debt.People have become confused and forgotten how good debt is.What will it take before you thank us?100 percent inflation and 80 percent taxes?Dont you see all the kids can just get a job at starbucks and pay 80 percent taxes and all will be well.The longer living elderly population can sleep safely at night knowing the next generation will gladly have no home,no children and no future just to support our pie in the sky dream?They will never rebel,their morals which we have instilled in them would never allow them to hate or despise us.

All thse silly goldbugs talking about history,fundamentals,free markets and fraud.They should know by now,if we just ignore it,it will all go away.



written by the head of propaganda.

kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733)
*** $340 ***
The price of gold needs to complete its ABC down. We probably will bottom around this $340 price.
As for the sale of gold by the bank of Portugal, who is the buyer? We always hear about the gold sales, but never the buyers. Could it be that the banks just sell their gold to each other so that the sale can be announced to the public? Would the purpose of this be to drive the gold price down? Would this result in speculator -paper longs losing their shirts? I find it difficult to believe that any of the banks have actually removed physical gold from their vaults. Just a thought.

ElGordo (3/2/03; 13:27:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98732)
Another way to wage war-Forged US treasury bonds
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6057256%255E13762,00.html
Two trillion dollar arrest

March 01, 2003

POLICE have arrested a man with two trillion US dollars in forged US treasury bonds in his possession, police said yesterday.
The 63-year-old man was arrested late yesterday in a raid on his flat in downtown Hong Kong.

Sixteen boxes, each containing 4000 forged bonds, were also seized.

Police raided 47 locations where suspected fake bank documents including standby letters of credit, bank guarantees, US Federal Reserve bonds and promissory notes were seized.

The Daily Telegraph
____________________
I wonder if any foreign government or terror group is involved
in this operation? Seems like it should be a bigger media story.



Operative (03/02/03; 12:28:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98731)
@ Sir Powell
Thank you for your show of concern and advice offered and gratefully taken. I have a meeting next week with the CPA on this years taxes and planned on informing him of the upcoming crises. ( I made some money, oh no is right). Your post this morning was yet another example of the caliber of people who surround this table. It has been an honor to sit, oft times in the corner, on my stole and learn from others who know much more than I. And yes, I play at the paper games in order to acquire additional wealth. "Profits" from the paper game are quickly moved into the physical and holding for a long time. As in, I hope someday my children and grandchildren will benefit and think kindly of the "old man". And with the many mistakes during my years, perhaps this pile of gold and silver will redeem some of my younger years errors.

In retrospect, I regret the earlier posting. I certainly did not want to come across as bragging. I was not. At the time I was furious at the treatment Black Blade was recieving at the other message board. The Irish tempter rose up upon seeing a good man unjustly maligned with his only "crime" being trying to help others at no charge no less. I started to write that post with some distance from myself by writing, if you had purchased those calls...etc. Then I decided, no, I wanted them to know that someone had actually done so and profited from listening to BB. The point I was trying to make was that BB had been gracious enough to suggest that energy prices would rise. His lead ( I tend to listen to people who have experience in any given area) was followed up by some research and as luck would have it, a good trade was made. It will be my pleasure, and duty, to gladly trade the FRN's for the real deal, physical gold and silver. Each gold or silver eagle is a vote, a message sent, to stop the madness, to stop the FRN printing press, and bring our country back to some form of reality. Vote as often as you can.

It was also a pleasure to play a game that was more open and honest than I am used to seeing in the PM's. Demand/Supply was at work and one could witness first hand the operation of a "free market" in action. No hidden power, no Central Bank, to slam dunk the action. Quite a refreashing experience and gives hope that one day Gold and Silver will be set free of it's "bondings". With all that is happening in the world today, and with the solid track record of gold last year underpinning us, perhaps the time will be soon. We wait patiently, and watch.

Best to you on this fine Sunday afternoon.
Operative

TownCrier (03/02/03; 12:06:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 98730)
Posted on behalf of an acquaintance of MK who wishes to remain anonymous
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256CD9000F7127?OpenDocument
Received by e-mail, message follows:
__________________________
The very interesting piece by Tim Wood [Randy's note: see the url I've provided above] re Newmont's hedging position, entitled 'Gold Hedging Brinkmanship is Here', set me to thinking.

Reasonably assuming that the physical gold borrowed by a bullion bank, such as J.P.Morgan/Chase from a central bank such as the U.S., the gold then being sold as part of the gold carry trade, with the proceeds invested at a higher yield than the cost of borrowing, such bullion bank, not being a producer of gold nor holder of physical gold, is not "creditworthy" to repay the physical gold. Under such circumstances, the central bank could not, under accounting rules, carry the loan as a "performing" loan and would have to write it off, with corresponding loss of physical gold reserve numbers.

Accordingly, plausible deniability as to such nonwriteoff by the central bank is required. So, the bullion bank guarantees its ability to repay the borrowed physical sufficient to prevent writeoff of the physical loan by the central bank by entering into a contract for delivery of physical from the gold mining company/producer such as American-Barrick. But a reasonably prudent gold producer such as Barrick would not maintain a large forward (hedge) position in a rising market, hence the contractual right in Barrick, as described in its company press release, to roll the hedge contracts forward up to fifteen (15) years at Barrick's sole election. But such contract provision would render such right in the bullion bank to gain the physical to honor its central bank repayment commitments as illusory for central bank accounting purposes, thus causing the physical gold loan to be written off.

Further, no reasonably prudent bullion bank would enter into such a contract with the gold producer since the bullion bank would not be gaining much (any) practical benefit. Therefor, the provision in the counterparty bullion bank, as described in the Tim Wood article, allowing the bullion bank to "break the contract" in advance of the physical delivery date, at the sole election of the bullion bank, and receive federal reserve notes computed at the prevailing gold price in lieu of the physical, allowing the bank to go into the physical spot market and buy the physical necessary to repay the central bank physical loan. Plausable deniability for accounting purposes is therefor created in the central bank as to the bullion banks ability to repay the physical loan, and the loan need not be written off for accounting purposes.

In this regard, it is interesting to note that it has been stated that no demand for such early breaking of such a contract has ever been received. If true, such nondemand would imply that no demand for repayment of the physical gold loan has ever been made by the central bank to the bullion bank. One may wonder how, if at all, the foregoing might impact the pending Blanchard lawsuit. EOM
____________________________

"Thank you, masked man" for that contribution of thought.

R Powell (03/02/03; 11:21:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98729)
Operative // taxes (oh,no)
Congratulations on your natural gas trades. Congrats more on your research methods than on the profits since the methodology can be repeated, hopefully with the same positive results. The numbers of supply and demand seem to more accurately predict price movements on those commodities (like gas) whose supply and demand more closely follows a yearly cycle than do gold and silver, no? This pertains again to the unknown amount of existing stores. However, this is not to say that the numbers don't matter with metals, just that more patience is required.

But, maybe it is the nonconformity of yearly numbers to the price movement that creates even more potential for the under or over valuation of metals. I guess if price cycles exist with metals, they would tend to have a longer time frame so that the last low POG at $252 may have signaled the beginning of a very long bull market. I've read that currency cycles are very long, slow moving affairs. This also determines POG and its cycles. Perhaps the real market price determining factors are just slowly evolving conditions in comparison to one very cold winter?

I wanted to warn you of the tax consequences of your gas trade profits. One of the supporting reasons for physical ownership is that most local metals dealers deal only in cash and are not required to forward any IRS forms to report profit or loss for their clients. Paper traders are not exempt. Most commodity accounts are marked-to-market on a yearly basis and taxed partly as long term and partly as short term gains or loses. The danger is that the account can show taxable profits on the last day of the year but these profits may or may not be available by the time (April 15) the tax is due. Plan accordingly.

Lastly, I don't mean to imply you or anyone else can not handle his/her own monetary affairs. Please don't take offense. I believe there are more paper investors here than is commonly supposed and some may benefit from this warning. Those with large physical holdings may also be subject to windfall taxes, but I'll leave this subject alone as I have never had to deal with it before and know nothing about it.

Also, a word of thanks to BB and others for the continuing supply of information that may very well determine our future, whether that implies barely surviving or nicely prospering, I think we should be better prepared than those who lack the knowledge available here.
Happy weekend
Rich

TownCrier (03/02/03; 11:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 98728)
Currency crisis in practice
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030221/lf_nm/venezuela_dollar_dc_1
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - At Isabel's beauty salon in downtown Caracas you can get more than a bikini wax, manicure or hair cut. You can now also dabble in the country's burgeoning black market.

Wedged next to a shuttered foreign currency exchange house, Isabel's is one of the newest additions to Venezuela's not-so-secret underworld of dollar traders looking to make quick cash off newly imposed draconian currency controls.

Embattled President Hugo Chavez unceremoniously shut currency markets last month, starving the nation of precious dollars in a bid to shield government foreign reserves from a swelling economic crisis.

"Hey mister, you looking for dollars?" one beauty salon worker whispers to Jose Dos Santos, who is just outside.

Breaking his worried gaze from the darkened windows of the currency exchange next door, Dos Santos blurts out a confused but determined, "Yes, miss. I am."

"I'm leaving tomorrow to live in Portugal and what am I going to do with bolivars over there?" he said.

Dos Santos might as well be the poster-boy for Venezuela's disillusioned immigrant population. He arrived here on the eve of the country's oil boom in the 1960s and opened a small grocery store.

"I've sold everything, my family has sold everything, we're leaving this country," he explained.

NEXT ARGENTINA?

The head of the government's new currency control board, retired army Capt. Edgar Hernandez, recently admitted the black market is "difficult to avoid and difficult to control."

"Leave a dollar free, floating around so the conspirators can slip in there? The dollar's value will rise and undermine the other controls. No, this must be an integrated system," President Chavez said during his weekly Sunday television broadcast.

..."We sell and buy gold," shouts out a middle-aged man in a Caracas plaza...

------(see url for full article)------

Tough business, this; life in the real world.

Put yourself in a position of strength. Own your gold, independent and immutable wealth, BEFORE you really, really need it. Buying a fire insurance policy provides no relief if you do it AFTER your house is in ashes.

A word to the wise.

R.

misetich (03/02/03; 11:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98727)
Other currencies can be benchmarks in international trade
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/2/28/nation/odcurren&sec=nation
Snip:

PUTRAJAYA: The international community should be encouraged to use other currencies or even gold as the benchmark in international trade because the domination of the US dollar in global transactions is distorting the world?s economy, Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad said.
...........
?When we put too much value on a certain currency, it becomes very powerful and that currency actually works against us,? he said.

He added that since no nation would like ?just one single policeman in the world,? the Euro, yen or even gold should be used for transactions.

?We should be given the choice to use whatever currency that we want,? he said at a meeting with 31 foreign editors and senior journalists at his office yesterday.
.........
For the purpose of trade, we shouldn?t say that oil should be quoted only in US dollars.

Today, the oil price has gone up but the value of the US dollar has gone down, something that the people do not point out,? he added.

The oil price today, he said, was not actually US$36 if this was compared with the value of the dollar a year or three years ago.
.........
?This is a contradiction. Why is this happening?

?It is simply because we are giving value to the US dollar which it doesn?t really have.

?There is nothing to back the US dollar other than people?s belief in it,? he added.
...........
Misetich

"For the purpose of trade, we shouldn?t say that oil should be quoted only in US dollars. "

Only a matter of time - When not IF

Got gold?




glennh10 (03/02/03; 11:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 98726)
Re: NY Times/Barrick Hedging Article
From what I've surmised, the purpose of banks/lessors is to get as many people/institutions as possible into hock. Do they care if the principle is never repaid, as long as the lessee can continue to make payments? When gold lease rates go up, Barrick might begin to consider returning the gold (paying off or paying down the principle). I could be missing something here, though.

Chris Powell (03/02/03; 10:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98725)
NYTimes examines Barrick's lagging share price and Blanchard lawsuit
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1449
New York Times examines Barrick's lagging share
price and the Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick
and Morgan Chase, and finds out that Barrick may
NEVER have to repay ANY borrowed gold.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com


misetich (03/02/03; 10:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 98724)
Turk: No Plan for Vote on U.S. Troops
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&e=2&u=/ap/20030302/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq
Snip:

ANKARA, Turkey - Turkey's ruling party has no plans in the "foreseeable future" to seek another parliament vote for the deployment of U.S. troops on Turkish soil for a war with Iraq, a party leader said Sunday.


The announcement by Eyup Fatsa, deputy head of the Justice and Development party, came a day after the legislature dealt a serious blow to U.S. war planning by failing to approve a motion to deploy U.S. soldiers, weapons and equipment.


"The proposal has been delayed to an open-ended time. There is no proposal for the foreseeable future," he told reporters after a party meeting to decide whether to resubmit the motion.

**********
Misetich

Vote may be delayed until UN backed resolution -if there will ever be one - the US war hawks plans are complicated - seeing they have a timetable to invade Iraq imminently

Somehow one can't help and ask what price the US and Britain are/will pay - at least on a world perception basis - in other areas

The costs of financing this "war" is increasing on a daily and the longer the "delay from the established War Hawks timetable" the costlier it will become as troops are being continuously deployed.

US "twin deficits" are growing - the economy slowing and going toward recession - job losses/layoffs are continuing -Oil prices are rising as are overall energy prices - housing and auto industry have began to slow -

What is holding up the US $?

You can only manipulate and deceive for so long until reality takes over

Got gold?






goldfool (03/02/03; 10:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98723)
In Gold We Trust
http://moneycentral.communities.msn.com/BusinessCenter/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=4824&LastModified=4675411844001161473
Gold demons

Mr Gresham (03/02/03; 10:38:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98722)
Randy
Good posts lately, with sharp insights!

The currency trader for HSBC, for example. One thing not mentioned much here is that the big brokerage and banking firms handle hundreds of billions in trust or discretionary accounts for their clients.

With the plunge of mutual funds, we are finding out now that their standard is not to "make money for our clients", but to "lose less money than the competition does."

That keeps you un-indictable, apparently. Sheesh!

Sheep to the shearing, then slaughter.

All while possibly making your own "private arrangements" for safe retirement. Ones you wouldn't even tell your co-workers at HSBC or ML or GS about. "Stocks always come back -- yeah, right!" "Every man for himself." Why tip your hand? Job rotation is available every few years.

Silence is golden, and gold is silent.



TownCrier (03/02/03; 09:28:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98721)
HEADLINE: War May Not Be All That Ails Economy
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20030302_94.html
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
...a sizable group of private economists wonders if the economy's problems run deeper than geopolitical worries and argue that the main force depressing growth is a hangover from the boom years.

No matter how the crisis with Iraq plays out, the economy could well remain mired in sluggish growth throughout 2003, these economists contend.

"If, suddenly, we were to wake up tomorrow to the news that Saddam Hussein has quietly left Iraq, I don't think we'd necessarily see a return to trend growth for the economy," said Ed McKelvey, economist with Goldman Sachs and Co. in New York.

"The best way to think about the economy right now is it is still working out the imbalances that came alongside the stock market bubble of the late 1990s," he added.

...How big a role war worries are playing in the economy's performance may be clarified within coming months as the United States, which has been massing troops in the Gulf, has signaled that it does not want to wait much beyond mid-March to take action against Iraq.

...the outcome of any Iraq war might not be as clear-cut for the economy as was the resolution to the Gulf War in 1991. ...with the United States intent on "regime change," even a quick U.S. military victory in Iraq would give way to rebuilding with the cost possibly reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

-----(see url for full text and Fed optimism)------

Not surprising, in its role as the economy's chief cheerleader and confidence booster, the Fed's stand in all this is that "once fears about a war in Iraq lift, U.S. economic growth should return to a healthy clip."

Served up with a grain of salt I'm sure. Our top Fed boys know better than that.

R.

Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 09:19:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98720)
A nation of One
Greetings Sir Nation of One,
Your post was interesting and I certainly am not equipped to disagree with you.
My thoughts as I rereread you post was that maybe this Dr H,
who is a contributer to the Daily Reckoning, had the same experieince Doug Nolan had.
If you are a Doug Nolan fan, I certainly am, lowly me used to wonder why Doug, persisted in his rants for a few years saying "The fed doesnt know what the hell they are doing"
When even me, student in the back of the class, was thinking, "uh, Doug, why dont you do an analysis from the vantage point of thinking that they DO know what they are doing, it is just that they are not following the rules you are assuming they must operate under.
And, if you are a Doug Nolan enthusiast, you will know that he did indeed change in 2002 to end denial and embrace the idea that foolish or not, the Fed knows precisely what they are doing. Not to say that they forsee the consequences of all thier actions, but that they are not dumb, they have hard choices and are weighing carefully as they can to accomplish thier most pressing goal first. Which I would guess is keeping the Dollar as reserve currency.
The Stranger gets a tip of the hat.

Town Crier made quite a post didnt he. This forum is loaded with gems. Set in gold of course.


TownCrier (03/02/03; 09:13:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 98719)
You, or someone like you...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_box.ht&middle=ad_frame2_all&s=APmIWSBTPSFNCQydz
HEADLINE: HSBC's Marc Chandler Says Fed Policy Is Depressing U.S. Dollar

New York, March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Bank USA, says that in 1986, when he answered an ad in the Chicago Tribune for a reporter to cover currency and Eurodollar futures at the International Monetary Market, he had one thing in mind: finding an interesting writing job.

After earning two master's degrees -- one in American history and one in international relations -- he wanted a job that wouldn't have him watching the clock every day. Seventeen years and eight foreign exchange-related jobs later, Chandler, 41, says he has no regrets about his career path, not even the 4 a.m. reveille, which he swears he manages without an alarm clock.

``It's the place for me that politics and economics come together,'' he says of the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market. ``What I ultimately want is to be part of the dialogue and discussion of current events.''

[Tellingly...] From his desk on the New York currency-trading floor of HSBC, the world's 12th-biggest foreign exchange trader, Chandler says he spends most of his time supporting the bank's currency sales and marketing efforts. He does so by publishing research or strategy notes...

------(from url)------

Bottom line:
Consider, when the things you gather from mainstream media are largely influenced by input from folks just like this who are primarily "supporting [their] bank's currency sales and marketing efforts", do you think for one minute that you are going to get the inside track on things, or do you think maybe, just maybe, you will instead be served up as the hapless counterparty to the bank's attempt at profits for its own book? Think about it, then go for physical gold because mum's the prevailing word. Do think about it.

R.

21mabry (03/02/03; 08:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98718)
Orwell
A course in the works of George Orwell should be offered in every high school in this country.IMO it would be one of the best ways to preserve freedom in this world 1984 is one of the most disturbing and thought provoking books I have read and if someone wants to read a good personel diary of the spanish civil war read Homage to Catalonia, great insight into the diffrent groups who made up the struggle. And remember Some are more equal than others.

TownCrier (03/02/03; 08:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98717)
HEADLINE: Gold climbs as dollar slides against the euro
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2003/03/02/196556
Sunday, Mar 02, 2003 (BLOOMBERG) -- Gold rose as the US dollar declined against the euro, prompting more buying of the dollar-denominated metal in Europe.

...The dollar fell against the euro for a third time this week and has lost 20 percent of its value against the European currency in the past year.

"New buying has come in with the dollar weakening," said Frank McGhee, head trader at Alliance Financial LLC, a gold-trading company in Chicago. "We're predominately trading on the dollar" after the rally spurred by war fears was deemed "overdone," he said.

-------(from url)----

Many Europeans are taking advantage of gold's strength versus the dollar. Main Street USA, are you? Call USAGOLD-Centennial this week for assistance.

R.

Dollar Bill (03/02/03; 08:43:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98716)
Liberty Head
Glad you posted.
You picked a good name, or, if you came here long ago, names were assigned.

TownCrier (03/02/03; 08:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98715)
Rising gold price masks declining production trend
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/03/02/1046540067813.html
(excerpt)
March 3 2003 -- Increased December-quarter production thanks to the commissioning of new mines was not enough to stop the year-on-year slide in Australia's gold production in 2002.

According to a survey by Surbiton Associates, released yesterday, gold production for 2002 fell by 3 per cent to 275 tonnes (8.8 million ounces).

The Melbourne-based mining industry consultant said that the fall was the fifth in a row since the 1997 record of 314 tonnes of gold.

------(see url for article)------

Dollars, on the other hand...

It all comes down to supply and demand -- demand for something tangible and trustworthy. Have you ever heard the phrase "Good as dollars"? No, neither have I. In this great game of bridge (get it? "bridge" -- wealth to span time and space), pick a winning partner. Choose gold.

R.

Tate (03/02/03; 08:14:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98714)
The Last Days of Pompey
Just received Standard Life financial statements. Big losses for year 2002. There goes our retirement.
Many folks must be looking at same numbers this morning. I wonder how many account holders will take action to terminate their accounts and how many know what investment alternatives are. Sadly many do not read these statements at all and don not realize their retirement pensions are up in smoke. And we are not even sub 5000 for DJ30. Today's Netscape home page shows 9/11 smoke blanketing lower Manhattan. I think US economy had its best days of unsustainable run up. Lower standard of living will take hold on most North Americans, excluding elite. Allan Greenspan (AG) surprised me by signals gold standard. Who is against him??? My take this would be big spenders. They stand most to loose. Such people are king makers who finance politicians. Nothing changed from The Last Days of Pompey.




CoBra(too) (03/02/03; 08:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98713)
Snippets from the Privateer (#470)
From the first Page:

"... In 1980 the sum total of debts (hosehold, businesses and corporations AND all of the US Federal Government's - federal, states and local) in the USA stood at 4 Trillion US Dollars.
At the end of the 3rd. Qu. 2002 it has soared to a sum total of 31 Trillion Dollars at a whopping 295% og the US GDP.
The previous high of this ratio of 264% was reached in 1929 - and we know what followed then. ...

And from the last Page (12):

... The central issue is the solvency of US, and the present "policy" of the Bush administration makes it certain that this solvency is going to be strained to and beyond breaking point. ...
... Russia has made it clear that the US will NOT get a UN sanction for a war against Iraq. Militarily, the US is indeed strong enough to go it alone. Financially,it is NOT. The rest of the world knows this, and it also knows that the only way to stop the US military push is to take away the money. If the US shreds all further remnants of its "international legitimacy" by a unilateral war, it will also shred all furter remnants of the "international legitimacy" of its debt obligations and its currency. That is the REAL threat now overhanging world markets everywhere."

Scary, though realistic thoughts by Bill Buckler, and he has built up a quite reputation as a true gold advocate.
In the meantime the US Dollar is hovering around the 100 level vis a vis a basket of currencies. Seemingly the (relative) strenght of the Euro has carried the brunt of this move. For how long can the strain on the international currency and monetary system survive, as the US seems willing to go on pushing on a string?
The POG itself seems clearly managed again since John Snow has taken over, to hover within "manageable" price bands.
Again, it only seems a question of time before Gold breaks out of the range the PTB have determined as intervention points.
War or not may eventually be only another diffusion, or better side show to cover up the real mess and disarray of the Fiat Currency System for a while longer.

When the music stops - gold will once again prove to be the only shelter to weather the coming "Perfect Financial Storm".
A moody cb2




silvester (03/02/03; 08:01:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 98712)
Zhisheng message #98697 to Rookie

Every now and then someone notices there are some among us who have a difficult time understanding the big gold picture. They take the time to explain and do so in a way that clears away the fog. It's that confusing fog which is discussed here at such depth that some(myself included) get lost in it.

It always helps when a hundred years of history are condensed into a few easy to follow paragraphs. It is as if you said "wait Rookie, start at the trail head and the path will appear clear."

Zhiseng your message was clear, simple and helpful I'm sure to more than a few. Thanks



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (03/02/03; 07:57:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98711)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

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Wednesday February 8
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