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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/2/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

The Hoople (05/02/02; 22:00:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74800)
MK, proxies
I don't confuse silver for a gold proxie, however it still seems more of a store of wealth than anything printed on paper including mining stocks. If you want gamble in fiat (I don't) that's fine, you just have to always be aware that nearly all paper is in essence a derivative. Gold stocks are basically that too: they derive their value from the gold that lays mostly underground. When I hear people decry derivatives I wonder how many actually realize even the FRN's in their wallet are little different. They can lose 50-100% of their value in a fortnight. They derive their value from a Federal Reserve deperately trying to convince us they somehow have worth. I guess being long dollars is saying you are bullish on bankrupt,indebted,leveraged government. My early life was spent growing up hearing depression era stories. I learned to always have not only plan A but plan B and C. It serves me well in business and I view silver as my plan B. Plan C involves off-topic subjects that pertain to survival. I would always advise people to focus on gold for wealth preservation. I would never advise anything printed on paper.

goldquest (05/02/02; 21:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74799)
This is how they did it before.
http://www.enteract.com/~mgfree/Economics/goldHistory.html
Could it happen again? Maybe, but not without a new revolution.

shelllus (05/02/02; 21:24:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 74798)
R POWELL/ PIZZ--TACTIC FOR TRAPPED SHORTS
I HAVE WONDERED IF THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING GOLD STOCKS TO HEDGE THEIR BULLION SHORTS--NOT AS BRILLIANT AS YOUE IDEA, BUT SHOULD WORK
AND IF THEY ARE POWERFUL ENUF MAYBE THE CAN GET THE RULES CHANGED--AS DID THE CBOT DID BEFORE THE HUNTS 'SILVER CORNER' RUINED THEM


Black Blade (05/02/02; 21:21:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74797)
The Wildcatters Wildcard
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hastings4.htm
Adversaries of the Economy, Then and Now

Snippit:

We are witness to a memorable turning point in the domestic economy. It not only continues its positive momentum but it also renews its resistance against strengthening, contrary developments. The voices representing the economy's threats seem also to gather in number, with more articles than ever published about the coming crash in the housing markets, consumer debts, and corporate defaults.

The housing market's crucial role in the overall economy is getting much attention. The housing market has replaced the stock market as the central force in a new version of The Wealth Effect. Unlike the stock market, however, the housing market involves many tangible parts of the economy such as construction and raw materials, and it has enormous, lasting influence upon consumption. For these reasons among others, the housing market is the single most important market to watch going into the second half of the year. It seems many others think so.


Black Blade: An interesting article on the housing bubble, oil, and various wildcards that can wreck havoc on the economy.




Black Blade (05/02/02; 21:07:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 74796)
Insider sell ratio tells investors to 'stay clear'
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/investing/story.html?f=/stories/20020502/96879.html

Snippit:

Company insiders have recently started betting against a near-term rebound in North American technology stocks, selling down stakes in their own companies, new research shows.

Black Blade: If corporate insiders won't buy their own stock should you?



Black Blade (05/02/02; 20:58:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74795)
Re: MK Scandals and IRA's

It gets even worse. Some company pension plans can legally be raided by the corporation to meet debt payments. This usually does not happen unless the company is in deep financial trouble. Obviously the employees get badly burned. Unfortunately most 401K type plans don't have a Gold investment option. However, additional contributions to a traditional or Roth IRA can be made by most everyone. The amount that can be contributed rises to $3000.00 this year and up to $3500.00 for those over 50 years (I think it's over 50) for the "catch up" option rising $500.00 each additional year (starting this year) to a maximum of
$5000.00. If you have an SEP (as I do) or another self-employment 401K the amount that can be contributed is considerably greater.

The news of scandals and government chicanery is running rampant these days. It appears that things are not getting any better either. When the next energy crisis hits we will see Gold strongly outperform as we have seen it do before. Meanwhile most all other investments will collapse.

- Black Blade


Black Blade (05/02/02; 20:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 74794)
Treasury Running Out Of Room to Tap Funds - Bill Come Due On June 28!!!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.html
U.S. Could Face Debt Crunch on June 28

Snippit:

Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday.

On that date, the government must make more than $60 billion in semiannual interest payments to trust funds, primarily Social Security. While that is a paper transaction, consisting of new bonds, it counts against the government's $5.95 trillion debt limit. Officials said the Treasury plans to start using a variety of budget tricks later this month to keep the government below the debt limit, but they will not be enough to prevent default on June 28 if Congress does not raise the limit.

"The end of June is really the end of the party. There isn't anything past that," Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher said in an interview yesterday. "It is necessary that Congress do this before the end of June. We expect they are going to do it before the end of June. They need to do it before the end of June."


Black Blade: "Crunch Time" as they say. Raise the debt ceiling or be in default. Can anyone say "Argentina"? I knew you could.



Black Blade (05/02/02; 20:34:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 74793)
April pink slips up 10%: Challenger
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B90D8F74A%2D5B50%2D43C1%2D8EF9%2DE333BA209726%7D&siteid=mktw

Snippit:

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - Announcements of job cuts by major corporations rose about 10 percent in April to 112,649, according to a monthly survey by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Black Blade: And so it goes, the "Bone Pile" grows.



Trapper (05/02/02; 20:18:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 74792)
To silver or not to Silver
I have an idea that the next big industrial use for silver will no doubt be super conducting. With in next energy blow up it should get some real usage. I'm not sure about the old 16 to 1 ratio as I am about the public going nuts once the whole PM market comes to life. I bought and sold in the 70s and 80s and the higher the price the hotter the action. Silver is also a small market it won't take much pressure to move it up. I'm also not so sure China has all that much to sell. I don't belive there is any real info as it is still a state secret as what is mined and held. But just ask anyone over say 35 if a pre 1964 dimes has any exta value...yep most still belive silver IS money. Live small.
RJ


USAGOLD (05/02/02; 20:16:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 74791)
Black Blade. . .
Thanks for "Scandals Shred Investors' Faith."

Have a real life story for you as part of today's business which supports your advice. . .

Had an individual call who had a retirement plan. . .I say "had" because now most of it has evaporated. Had the plan at one major brokerage which burned a chunk of it, so he moved it to another major broker where another chunk of it disappeared. Now he says he's going to gold where he understands what he's got. The conversation concluded with a lament we hear often at USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals: " I wish I would have had the wisdom to move it into gold sooner." If you go by market valuations, we still have substantial downside potential on the stocks of many of the top companies. Real market pros like Richard Russell keep telling us this, but so many stay in the stock market despite the losses and abuses. They believe that the "market's coming back" when history tells us that a bear market can last ten to fifteen years. The fact of the matter is that it's far from late in the game as far as gold is concerned. We are doing a very active business in gold retirment plans and I suggest that if anyone's thinking along these lines to contact George Cooper at our offices. He does a lot of this. And those who have made the move are looking alot better now in a Gold IRA than they would have been if they left it in stocks or money markets.


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (05/02/02; 20:12:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74790)
Behind the scene in OZ there were only children.
In 1994 I was in Japan and I went into a bank in Osaka to max out a credit card to convert it to Yen as it was ready to rise against the dolar. I saw with my own eyes about 40-50 "kids" like 20-28 in the bank shuffling through index card inventory files with filing cabnets all over the office. Everyone dressed so fine without a computer anywhere. I couldn't believe what I saw. This was 1950 in the twilight zone of finance. It was easy to see how bank loan policy had no way to see the big picture from a protracted view. There were hardly any older people in the whole bank. I never saw such a mess of opened file cabnets and index card files in my life, with stacks of papers everywhere right in plain view of the public counter. Talk about having a lack of ability to assimilate information? no don't talk about it, investorsan. We have money good invested in company alot!

Black Blade (05/02/02; 19:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 74789)
Scandals shred investors' faith
http://www.usatoday.com/money/general/2002/05/02/trust.htm

Snippit:

Fired Andersen auditor David Duncan pleaded guilty in April to obstruction charges. The Enron and Andersen scandals are helping erode investors' trust in companies. A drumbeat of corporate misdeeds has helped crush stock prices and eviscerate pension plans. But the biggest victim may be trust investors' trust in financial advisers, stock analysts and Corporate America. During the bull market, corporations and those who ran them seemingly could do no wrong. Now they're feeling the backlash, in the form of congressional hearings, bankruptcy trials and investor outrage.

Trust keeps the financial system together. Once lost, it can take years for Wall Street to regain it. Signs of how badly trust has eroded are everywhere. Investors are starting to give up on the stock market and are plowing money into their homes instead. And Congress is warming up to write new business regulations. Unless Corporate America moves quickly to regain public confidence, Wall Street could languish for years.



Black Blade: Unfortunately most CEOs, executives, and boards of directors only care about getting ungodly amounts of compensation, fat bonuses, diluting shares, hiring friends, and looting the very companies that they serve for personal gain. Enron, Qwest, Global Crossing, Barrick, Worldcom, Arthur Andersen, etc. are only the beginning. If you choose to play the market, be extremely careful there are a lot of criminals (wolves in sheep's clothing) out there.


YGM (05/02/02; 19:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74788)
Blackbeards Treasure...."In Pennsilvania".................OK!
http://www.sru.edu/depts/library/imc/FolkTales/black.htm
Spanish silver buried in Emporium, Pennsylvania! Several tons of silver bars from a sunken Spanish galleon were recovered by a Captain Blackbeard (not the notorious pirate, Edward Teach) who hoped to transfer the silver to a British ship at Baltimore. Fearful that others would follow the ship to seize the treasure, it was secretly loaded into six carts and sent overland to reach a friendlier Canadian port. The War of 1812 broke out while the silver was en route and Captain Blackbeard decided to bury the silver in the mountains past Emporium. He left a guard, Colonel Noah Parker, who built a castle in the area and kept the curious away. Blackbeard died before he recovered the silver and legend has it that the silver is still there.

**Hey this (Silver Hoard)is becoming the most interesting search engine find in a long while :>))


YGM (05/02/02; 19:41:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74787)
Google Search....Silver Hoards.....1-10 of 8,360 Items found in .11 sec
http://www.google.ca/search?q=Silver+Hoards&btnG=Google+Search&hl=en
Jeeeez! Black Blades Viking Ancestors are everywhere here on the first page :>)

Off to read & dream of the Viking plunders for a bit....


USAGOLD (05/02/02; 19:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 74786)
Canuck, Anduril, Solomon, Hoople, et al
Go back and check the history of silver. Anyone here know the circumstances behind Bryan's Cross of Gold speech? Anyone here know who was one of Bryan's biggest financial supporters (if not his biggest financial supporter)? That was a long time ago, but this analysis addresses the circumstances of Nature that affected the price of silver then and still address it now. By the way, I had a client come into the office to buy some gold at the beginning of my career who remembered seeing Baby Doe Tabor from the window of Denver's Brown Palace Hotel peddling her bike down 17th Street. She was wearing newspaper for clothes. Ten years earlier at her mansion on Capitol Hill, she played hostess to the grandest parties ever seen in Denver -- then and now. By the time she was seen peddling down the 17th Street, her husband, Horace Tabor -- the Silver King -- had gone from rags to riches and back to rags again.

I am not worried about silver from an "investment" point of view, because an argument could be built for it. (I once owned a silver mine -- and a rich one, alas geologically but not financially.) Just like I do not worry about copper from an investment point of view. However, I do have a problem with those who think that silver is somehow a substitute for gold, just like I have a problem with the philosophy that owning a piece of paper that represents a mining company is somehow a proxy for the real thing. Neither are. There is no substitute for gold. Someday, even those who promote the proxies will come to understand the difference -- if they haven't already. There is a place for each, but we shouldn't confuse what each means to the investor.

By the way, I believe the classical definition for "money" encompasses the combination of form and function.

Multiple Choice:

Money is
a) a medium of exchange
b) a store of value
c) a unit of account
d) all the above

Hint: In the modern era, none of the things we call "money" encompass the definition -- not the dollar, not gold, not silver. Interestingly, gold and silver coinage came about because in ancient times only the government (the king) as a disinterested third party could be trusted to act as arbiter in its issuance. Money had to do with weight and purity. Now, because the government cannot be trusted to issue money, savers are forced to purchase gold at weight and purity as a portfolio insurance.

The wheel of history turns. . . . .





Black Blade (05/02/02; 19:29:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 74785)
US will likely face 'major' natural gas supply problems
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142622

Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 2 -- So far this year, US natural gas production is declining faster than first anticipated, said Raymond James & Associates Inc. in a recent report. And with this fall in gas supplies, gas prices are expected to creep higher later in the year, RJA said: "For the past 6 months, our mantra. . .has been that natural gas will be the key driver of US energy stocks and that lower US natural gas supply will drive gas prices higher."

RJA had considered its earlier expectations that US gas production would fall sequentially 1.5%/quarter during 2002 as "out on a limb," which would result in a 5-6% year-over-year decline in gas production by midsummer. "About a month ago, we were surprised by our preliminary first quarter [exploration and production company] production survey that suggested first quarter production may be down sequentially close to 2% and year-on-year down by 3%. In the past week, however, even that bullish estimate has been eclipsed by the actual production announcements from the E&P companies," RJA noted.

"We now have a statistically significant sampling of US E&P companies that tells us that not only is US gas production falling, but it is falling faster than even our bullish projections," the analyst said. ". . .E&P companies are reporting first quarter 2002 production down 2.9% from the fourth quarter of 2001 and down 6.7% on a year-over-year basis."

RJA noted that while totals will likely change over the next few weeks as more production reports trickle in from other E&P companies, ". . . [I]t is becoming clear that the US is facing a major natural gas supply problem that is likely to lead to higher gas prices over the summer and a potential gas price explosion next winter."



Black Blade: As I have said, we are being set up for a severe energy crisis. I think that it more likely that supply problems will surface this coming winter, however, these analysts think that the supply crunch will come sooner. Drill rig rates have fallen off a cliff and there is very little replacement of reserves. Higher energy costs will hit consumers and corporations very hard. In short scratch one US "economic Recovery" this year.


YGM (05/02/02; 19:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 74784)
Canuck...
Silver Wonderings.....(that we all share)
Canuck, I pretty much agree w/ all you've said and like you hold only a % of AG. (25% in my case) But I do feel it will always be as good as Gold in terms of buying power, only of less value obviously. I try to keep in mind the old adage that money goes where money is. Now we have a few well known examples such as the Buffet hoard and others. But one of my strongest support feeling for Silver upswing is the fact that the Central Fund of Canada, with a major shareholder base of Bankers, Lawyers and other high end financial folks holds over 1.2 Million Oz (last time I looked) of Silver. I'm sure we could come up w/ other PM funds/Hoarders that hold similarly high volumes as well....
Probably I like yourself and others know at the very least if a total financial armageddon or an armed one ever comes about we can use it for Barter at worst.....It's the only way I have f being diversified outside the world of paper..
& BTW>> Thanks to all for entering my 25 cent silver rant :>)


sector (05/02/02; 19:16:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74783)
@GR2...Japanese Banks
"Whjat will Japan Do About Its Banks?"
Nationalize them.

En mass. Since they will not honor uninsured deposits, elderly Japanese [60s and 70s] holding more than $85,000 will lose their life savings...savaged for their frugality.

The pre-April 2003 proceeds from such a nationalization will provide at least $600 Billion in fresh funds to cover the $1.5 Trillion in aggregate bad loans.

If the government waits for April 2003 the move will be a single coup.

Unlike the US, the Japanese people have nothing to revolt with.

The revenge of the Ballots? The LDP will simply proffer yet another Koizumi-style puppet to speak platitudes.

The key element here is that portion of Japanese savers who have already guessed the government's strategy [No doubt with Robert Rubin's counsel] and are quietly moving to gold.


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (05/02/02; 19:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74782)
Silver and Gold futures patterns are totally different...........
The question of "How high can silver go?" Has its answer in the supply and demand equation. At what price do the holders of above ground supply begin selling into the rally to take profits? From our current charts it's like 50 cents. The slow rise up then a big selloff. I don't see a slow buildout rollup in price like in gold. The runaway in palladium from awhile back proves that a non-precious metal can take on precious metal characteristics as an investment medium when palladium is only an industrial metal and silver is an industrial metal with age-old sentimental superstitious ties to gold. Ratios of bygone eras in the US have little to do with the attitude of India and China which still have mega-tons of silver to sell. My question is AT WHAT PRICE will they sell. You assume silver is like a baby raccoon following gold wherever it goes for no reason. Nothing has to follow anything. It's more emotional (their ratio) and has nothing to do with logic, it DOES have alot to do with consumer electronics which aren't going away as long as we have electricity. Society is gadget crazy and that is the ace card of a silver bull.

Canuck (05/02/02; 18:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74781)
@YGM
From yours:

"I still refuse to believe Silver will not again trade back at or near 1/20th multiple of Gold as it has done historicaly"

'Ballsy' call; isn't the silver bull/silver bear debate interesting? I refuse to make a call regarding silver. The bull camp touting that the silver hoard is gone. This sounds most bullish at first glance but let's examine the superhoard of the US many years ago, some 4 billion ounces.
What does it have now, none.

What does this mean?

Well I think it means that the government doesn't need silver anymore and it has sold it. In the barest of terms what does it need silver for, it doesn't need to make anything made of silver, does it??

Why would any government hoard silver? Why not just hold the already recognized metal reserve, gold? The US does not hold anymore silver, so what?

The photography thing bothers me too. Sure there is the debate of 'no silver impact' but who can really confirm the widely divergent numbers. When you walk into the retailers the fact remains that the proportion of camera merchandizing is slanting towards digital. It seems to me that the tradtional film camera's are increasing in price while the digitals are decreasing. Have you noticed this trend?

The other thing is the dealers, one was so bold to tell me that buy gold (insurance/wealth preservation, etc) but silver "will be used as a doorstop." That's from a guy trying to sell me silver. I asked him why, he said "silver has been completely de-monetized, gold is still money in the central banks view.....silver is used to make cheap jewellery and trinkets but gold is still stored in big bars in big vaults.."

The dishoarding of silver will end of course and silver will have a rebound, especially if people run wild in the early moments of mayhem but I don't think we are going to see the traditional 20:1 gold/silver ratio. I bought a significant pile of it after I had piled into gold during Y2K. My thinking was to have 50/50 gold/silver but in the last year I have gone back to gold. I hold (in dollar terms) about 60/40 now and will continue with gold from here on out.

I have a 'buy' on gold and a 'hold' on silver.


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (05/02/02; 18:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74780)
Reading the fundamentals.......... because they were there!
If we can remember back that far, the reason interest rates skyrocketed in the late '79, was because the FED had to borrow money on the open market competing for loans with businesses. It absorbed all the short term money supply and brought on a national business shutdown. And the same situation is setting up in coming months. Tax revenue is falling while national debt interest payments are coming due. This fact to me is like the busload of bureaocrats stopped on the railroad tracks to take pictures of America's last urban wilderness. The stock market seems to be trending flat. Individuals are sending in their money into mutual funds while insider selling is preventing the blue chips from rising. So we have seen gold and the DOW rise together, that doesn't really matter much. The serious inversives are:

1. British investment repatriation as they turn to the strenghtening Euro.

2. The US national debt "baby buy my bonds" impending crisis, with falling tax revenues.

3. When Sadam decides to do a cruise-by through the Gaza strip.

4. The Japanese banks collapse while their whole country looses its former business model with an export driven economy in saturated US markets.

The eventual outcome is that the strong dollar policy is being undermined by fundamentals. As Japan seeks to distance itself from the falling dollar, it will be calling out for an asian currency bloc as a "plan B". The deal is already foreknown.........."You want us to lay off the gold buying binge, well then give us the alternative we need to stabilize our region with.......and asian currency bloc."

As anything that developes in Asia the "bottom up method" is how processes begin having a weak central gov't, major corporations form mergers and begin swapping stock, trust builds, then the pressure is put on banks to do likewise. Finally last of all the politicians become the "explainers" of their "own new ideas" that the behind the scenes business leaders told them to say. In any school of fish you'll be hardpressed to find the leader, but all the fish know. The US will put pressure on Japan to selloff this imported gold. For the currency bloc, I think they'd do it. Japan needs to create a stable fiat currency so its people can stop buying gold to appease the US Fed. For the US to loose that chunk of the empire to another currency is better than to loose its whole reserve currency capabilities throughout the rest of the world due to a runaway gold price. However, I think iy would only delaay the foreboding event. We're on a big island from Maine to Georgia with a spoiled population that only cares about getting bread and a circus*, (spelled Nascar). I have to be a realist. We need to see the cards on the table. Japan would rather negotiate to release itself from the falling dollar problem but it has to make many friends in Asia before it can say goodbye to the US as protectorate. The US will say, "If you sell our dollars and bonds, we'll let piracy on the high seas eat your industries for lunch." So since Japan is afraid of China, and Taiwan is afraid of China and Japan, they can't dump the dollars so easily. They want our ships in their waters. They can only sell off bonds and dollars slowly and blame private investors. This is all my own spin from my chair that can spin and my mind that has spun. Looks like gold is going to bounce around 305-308 and slowly lift off into its own radical upswing. I expect doldrums until this gov't debt crisis hits like a baseball through the glass window. And/Or the day will arrive when Barrick and Placer formally announce an end to hedging. They are under pressure now to do this or their stock prices will drop. Feel free to correct or expand on any topic here.

I'd like to hear your comments about what Japan is going to do with failing banks. Good days in gold to all. -GR2


R Powell (05/02/02; 18:20:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74779)
mikal
I tend to think that the reportedly 5000-15000 tonnes of leased gold can not be repaid from existing supply and will have to repaid slowly over time with many contracts rolled over numerous times. I believe the same situation exists in silver with an even smaller chance of being repaid with metal.
I fully agree with you that if the leases are called, many will have to be repaid with assets other than metal. I wonder what qualifications were originally required for leasing. Were T-bills or other collateral put up as assurance? How about gold leased on the condition that it be sold back to the bank that leased it with the further stipulation that the party that leased (and is now paying interest) can buy back the same gold in the future to then repay (in metal) the bank that originally leased. This provides capital for investment to the lessor and interest to the bank on gold that never moved from the vault. The physical gold is never at risk! Of course, much gold has been irretrieveable sold into the market to supply the ongoing supply/demand deficit. With physical default here, I'm sure the banks will grab anything of value they can attach. How can this not raise POG and POS!/?
Rich


R Powell (05/02/02; 17:56:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 74778)
Pizz
Pizz, indeed you can buy or sell futures contracts and/or options on the same to your heart's content. The intentional manipulation of market prices is what is considered illegal. The exchanges are self regulatory and the obvious question becomes when does a position become large enough to be considered manipulation?
In "Silver Bulls" Sarnoff explains that the Hunt brothers never (in his opinion) squeezed the silver market. The regulators saw a large long position from many sources (some from the Mid-East) and decided that there was a squeeze even though the Hunts agreed to forego adding to their sizeable position, agreed to roll over long positions further out in time away from the current (deliverable) or nearest contract month and even exchanged long contracts for physical from Mocatta (big short at the time). There never was an extraordinary call for delivery. However, the regulators protected the shorts who were the big boys at that point (all the small shorts had been forced out). They did this by increasing the margin requirements and finally ordering that only liquidation orders could be filled. This meant the only way to buy was from an existing long forced to sell. The bid-ask price was therefore always settled at the bid price and the price tanked to finally bottom at $11.70. What determines manipulation? Who makes the rules? I am a trader but physical ownership is, of course, safer that playing in the casino. The allure of the casino is the amount of potential fiat gain that can be held with a small margin but the game's rules seem subject to change by the "regulators" who are supposed to prevent manipulation.
In my opinion, small price moves in all commodities are "manipulated" almost all the time from the local floor traders trying to scalp a few bucks, through the computer activated trades and technically oriented trading programs which will trigger stops causing price movements (channels with support and resistence) and, of course, by the big known and unknown players.
Myself, I try to maneuver among these while buying and selling, selling and buying for small gains while desperately trying to always keep long positions rolling over into the future so that I'll be on board when the big move comes. I also hold physical silver (thanks CPM).
Like yourself, I'm a very small player but I enjoy the game!
Rich


Pizz (05/02/02; 17:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 74777)
Comment on Market Comments
I don't know how may listen to all the 'advisors' and 'analysts' comment on the markets during the day, but today is almost laughable.

Nearly all are coming across in total disbelief that the markets are not rallying. Where did these people get their credentials? Out of a Cherrios box? I'm surprised someone hasn't floated the idea that the markets since 911 are lagging indicators.

The reality of the fact that our government has been pumping the numbers and lying to us is about to set in. The PTB need something to blame real quick, their aren't any more rabbits in the hat.

911 delayed investment syndrome sounds pretty good to me. Maybe everyone who's losing money can apply for some sort of government aid. Gee, if we weren't suffering from this syndrome based upon 911, everyone would still be pumping money into the markets and we'd all be rich and retired.

Losing my objectivity over the circus. . . . . .


Pizz


mikal (05/02/02; 16:24:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74776)
@R. Powell
You ask "how leased metal repayment is settled if the metal is unattainable." It's been said the leasee companies or banks would default with full or partial payment coming from liquidation. That is, if the futures markets, either US or overseas, do not suspend or cease operations.

Pizz (05/02/02; 16:09:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74775)
R Powell - Educate me a bit
Illegal?

I don't trade futures, but I've bought and sold a few puts and calls on stocks and indexes, but why couldn't someone who was short futures LEGALLY buy out of the money calls as a hedge?.

thanking you in advance,

Pizz


Boxman (05/02/02; 16:08:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 74774)
Is Blake Blade ghost writing for Puplava?
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
I swear, if the word "grasshoppers" were in this article, I would be convinced that Black Blade had written todays article.

Maybe he is a lurker here?

What next from Puplava, advice on stocking up on PMM's, cash, food stocks, and to get out of debt?


mikal (05/02/02; 15:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 74773)
@YGM
After reading your post I realized I left out a qualfier that I'd meant to place in my first post. That is the birthplace of Au and Ag are distinct from the other elements of the periodic table, including if I'm correct, rare elements like platinum.

R Powell (05/02/02; 15:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 74772)
Pizz
Good question.
You asked, "Why don't the gold shorts just buy enough 315 or 320 call contracts and then cover their shorts? They'd probably make money even after the spike pullback- or is this just too simple?"

I think it's brilliant, not legal, but brilliant. Legality or morality has never been a deterrent to their greed in the past, it won't be now. They could also sell put options (the right to sell at a set price for a set length of time) and collect the premium (cost) for these too! They'd then cover their short position, elevating POG well beyond any of the put strike prices and pocket the premium with no liability. All the calls would become in-the-money options and could be spread out for several years to reduce capital gains taxes. They could also corner the market while they're at it and then squeeze the shorts! Oh, what fun, mayhem, and profit could be wrought! Only one problem other than the legal one, is there enough physical gold available to cover their short obligation? If not, are there any lease clauses that would allow them to repay with greenbacks?
Maybe they could establish a gold to copper ratio and repay with copper. They won't find enough silver!
I've never heard or read anywhere exactly how leased metal repayment is settled if the physical is not attainable. Many have asked but I've never seen any reply other than opinion. Anyone know??
With the lack of transparency in OTC markets, the present shorts may already have an exit plan. Or maybe enough money has been safely stored in some secret retirement locations that the exit plan involves no more than a one way plane ticket. "J P Morgan you say? Nope, come to think of it, we haven't seen him or Mr. Goldman Sacks at all since POG spiked up. What's up? Does he owe you gold?"
Rich


mikal (05/02/02; 15:39:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74771)
Can't leave out:
Meteorites and asteroids also carried the elements to Earth, where they are also found in metallic alloys or compounds.

YGM (05/02/02; 15:39:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 74770)
A Shared Passion......
SILVER & GOLD
Possibly wrought from the fusion of the dust cloud that created this beautiful blue planet, who knows....Silver & Gold however created have as all precious things (even Woman) brought joy to some, sorrow to others....It is with a great sense of peace that we the few look to them with clear and unclouded minds to use for the betterment and sustenence of loved ones....We share the passion and we will share the future, we the few.......YGM

mikal (05/02/02; 15:22:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 74769)
Silver
@R. Powell- "Sound OK?" Yes, that's just fine by me, for starters. Just let us know when you trade out (or in)!..... @Anduril- Great analogy: stars. And isn't it interesting- gold and silver (& platinum?) cannot be made, were never made, and did not originate on Earth. This is because of the extraordinarily high temperatures required to form these elements, temperatures in gaseous condensation. What we have is from comets & meteors.

Pizz (05/02/02; 15:03:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 74768)
Beware of slow steady slides
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=1035450&CFTOKEN=31760243&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment&newsletterid=713&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Good article on invesment advisor sentiment.

Complacency usually means down, more than just physical objects can fall due to their own weight.

Should coincide with spike up in PM's. SM's hanging by fingernails, PM's beatin' on the door.

_____________________

Why don't the gold shorts just buy enough 315 or 320 call contracts and then cover their shorts? They'd probably make money even after the spike pullback - or is this just too simple? Anyone?

Pizz



The Hoople (05/02/02; 14:44:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74767)
YGM
Wall Street is right, you need a diversified portfolio. That's why I am 75% gold, 20% silver and 5% cash. I can't predict which metal launches first so I think you need both. Since our hosts here will sell either (silver begrudgingly?) it's worth an occasional mention. Any non-suppressed rational commodity would have long ago looked at the dwindling silver reserves and already have a price explosion priced in. It will probably be $5 the day it goes off the cliff. Talk about the ultimate barbarous relic, in 1999 100# of silver would have only bought 15 or so shares of Amazon. Even today 100# would barely pay for an old beater automobile. Methinks some day 100# will buy my vacation property in the South of France.

Andril (05/02/02; 14:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 74766)
Solomon Weaver you ask 'which came first silver or money...?'
Silver was birthed and for billions of years borne about upon the celestial bosom of Mother Nature. Silver, as also gold, silica, iron, on and on; they may be found in corners where no breath of life has ever stirred the fabric of the mind of God.

You say of silver and money 'I sense that they have been one and the same for a long time.'

First was silver, now what of noney? These various atoms of God are apart from money, money being offspring of the fabric weavings of modern Man, but no less wondrous therefore. A subcreation, if you will. To mix them, God's atoms and Man's money, in one thought and use is to nurture the growth of discord as two worlds collide.

Can you find the wisdom to tread the true path of harmony?

Step this way. There is a shortcoming: the Absolute of PROPERTY OWNERSHIP that Money does not, can not, manifest...

It is thus that you would cheapen the original Creation. Proof is deep. Many bones there have lived with what you see here written.


R Powell (05/02/02; 14:32:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74765)
YGM
Can we only hope for 1/20th dollar evaluation of silver to gold? From CPM, 5/2/02

"Private investors held about 2 billion ounces of silver in 1990, excluding coins, and are now estimated to be holding about 404 million ounces, CPM said. That would be enough to cover the supply deficit for "three to five years," Christian said."

How much gold is available? Don't include coins as the above silver guesstimate doesn't. We'll probably need a multiple of the present prices of gold or silver before coin melt starts to add to supply. I guess we'll have to endure a silver price pullback from $38.60/ounce to $29.40/ounce when coin melt adds supply but IMHO this will be only a temporary downturn before the second leg up to $100+/ounce. With POG at anything less than $2000/ounce we will have exceeded the 20 to 1 ratio!!?
Sound okay?
Rich


Pizz (05/02/02; 14:04:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74764)
YGM
Agree with you on silver, but I had to chuckle after scanning the link.

I guess it doesn't matter if they're right for all the wrong reasons. . . . .

With all the talk of recovery, has anyone actually come out and said just what segment of the economy is supposed to lead the way - oh, I forgot the government, now who's going to lend them the money!!!!

Pizz


Solomon Weaver (05/02/02; 13:53:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74763)
Silver is money
Hey YGM

There was a comment on the forum that it was sad that "Agentina" was having money problems when their name is a cognate of money in spanish...in French "argent" means both money and silver.

The use of Ag to designate silver in the periodic table comes from Latin roots.....

What I wonder is, which came first silver or money, cause I sense that they have been one and the same for a long time.

POS (poor old Solomon....or price of silver....which ever you prefer)


YGM (05/02/02; 13:46:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74762)
FINALLY.......Silver Getting on the Media Radar Screen
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Mining%20News&tp=ad_mine&T=au_storypage99.ht&s=APM6VYBOFU2lsdmVy
It's a start.....I have alot of faith that the Silver Bull will be running amuck within the next few months.....As Gold news eclipses all else at present, Silver too will have enough media attention soon enough...IMHO.....I still refuse to believe Silver will not again trade back at or near 1/20th multiple of Gold as it has done historicaly.
With Gold at $500.00 p/oz.....Hmmmmm! & don't waste breath telling me it's different this time because I still believe Silver "IS ALSO MONEY"!......YGM.


RobotGuy (05/02/02; 13:28:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74761)
Going DOWn?? Heheeheeheeheahahahahaaaaa (evil laugh)


Pizz (05/02/02; 12:31:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74760)
Sierra Madre
Astute observation for a non technitian and I like your style with words.

Most technical people call for resistance in the 325 range. I don't see that much resistance there other than the current upward trading channel. One thing the tech's forget is that in a major short squeeze (like we have brewing now) the lines don't mean squat. If this thing pops and a few majors start covering, we'll run to 375 - 400 fairly easily, IMO.

Let the bleeding begin.

Pizz



Graefin (05/02/02; 12:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74759)
Thanks Nickel62 and Hipplebeck...
Thanks for the great posts...and that was just a reminder of what we're up against. I was raised in the United States, but have spent the last year in Germany, an indefinate stay. Once you're out of the fishbowl, the global problems the United States faces with the rest of the world becomes more glaring, more real. Yes, it frightens me a bit to see where the U.S. is headed...and speaking as an American, all of us were raised in a very spoiled lifestyle compared to the rest of the world. Count your blessings and be happy with what you have; you never know when you may lose it.
Peace and Balance
- Grfin


Sierra Madre (05/02/02; 11:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74758)
Gold graph is very jumpy!!

Hi everyone!

I'm not a chart reader, don't go in for all the "technical analysis" stuff, BUT...

I just checked out today's gold graph at a neighboring site a few minutes ago, and gold is acting very nervous, it seems to me. Jumpy; up/down, up/down; some steep falls tell me that TPTB are fighting a desperate battle to get the confounded yellow metal DOWN, but it won't stay down.

This yeller dawg has his teeth into JPM's arse and the lousy hound WON'T LET GO!

Rather amusing, I must say. Not too sorry for the shorts.

Sierra


RobotGuy (05/02/02; 11:00:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74757)
Paper Indicators
I've been monitoring a number of small mining company stocks over the course of the last two years, and I've noticed that not until recently are the thought patterns of your tech type investors entering into the PM mentality. We are at the bottom of a semi-parabolic wave pattern created by word of mouth and pain of lost tech monies. As Calandra has pointed out on more than one occasion, there are relatively few investors in the precious metals markets relatively speaking. These investors have proven to the world that they are willing to play the money game on a worthless stock just to be 'hip' with their colleagues. I know a few individuals who scoffed at the idea of investing in PM's a couple of years ago, but I believe they were basing their attitudes on the opinion of the market cheerleaders at the time. People have been beating down the PM markets for years, so much so that there is a grand negative opinion toward the whole idea. This idea, or attitude, is slowly transforming as we see more positive news and recommendations pertaining to the PM markets. By word of mouth the profits made in these markets will be shared and the news will spread exponentially. Perhaps some of the major tech stocks were worth one tenth or less than what they were trading for, but money driven individuals do not care any longer of the value of a company, that type of knowledge requires research. Many of today's investors are only curious to know what the price per share is, and if their favorite cheerleader mentions it in a positive way.
The trend I've been seeing lately with the smaller mining companies indicates that we are on the verge of this 'breaking trend', and no matter what the actual worth of a mining company may be, if it's 'hip' the lemmings will buy. Some people will invest in a mining company without even doing any research. If a company has the term mining in it's title people will buy it even if the focus product is lead.
Some have already been suggesting that a number of mining companies have already surpassed the actual worth in value of stock, but they are assuming that the price of gold will not surpass it's current levels.

Now for you paper haters, it's not all bad for gold. Big players will see the supply and demand side of things and play with both market shares, and physical to achieve their desired goals.


Soon,... Very soon.


YGM (5/2/02; 10:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74756)
Thom Calandra...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={EA415BE8-822D-472D-8DCB-F97E3B205FC6}
Excerpt...

THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH

Americans: How to wave yellow flag
Individuals slowly accepting gold among investments

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:46 AM ET May 2, 2002




SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Some of us may be sitting at our computer terminals, thinking, "I can't bring myself to buy gold because I think it is un-American. Or anti-economy."

After 9-11, who wants to be un-American?

Gold companies are this year's best-performing stock market investment. Just take a look at the CBS MarketWatch industry analyzer. Yet investment demand for gold, gold coins and gold mining companies still represents only a sliver of the activity in technology stocks.

Investors just the other day exchanged more than $3.3 billion worth of the vaunted cubes. Cubes are the trading slang for the Nasdaq 100 trust securities (QQQ: news, chart, profile) that represent America's faltering tech stocks. But on a good day for gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), the world's largest producer of the metal, will see only $200 million or so of its shares change hands.

To be sure, the lure of gold is gaining currency. Futures traders of small lots (fewer than 200 contracts) on New York's Comex are net long more than 100 tons of the metal for only the fifth time. Helping is the fact that gold's price is decisively above $300 an ounce, and looking like it will stay there. See related story.

Plus, there are anecdotal signs sales of America's Gold Eagle coin are picking up, albeit slowly. Sales of U.S. Mint gold coins, priced at $318 per Eagle, are still well below levels of 1998 and 1999. See chart.

Cont'd @ Link...


RobotGuy (5/2/02; 10:16:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 74755)
Alas; prepare GOLD, Elliot wave will apply to you also.


RobotGuy (5/2/02; 10:08:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74754)
Prepare DOW, Elliot wave theory is upon you!


Simply Me (5/2/02; 09:58:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 74753)
Usery
Gimli_ (5/2/02; 08:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74747)
FWIW: Usury prohibited in Old Testament too....
Both Islamic and Mosaic Law prohibit usury. Hmmm....

Me: True. But the prohibition on usery is often interpreted to apply only to ones own kind. In other words the Muslims were not to charge other Muslims interest. And Jews who charged more than a certain percentage interest to other Jews were looked upon as criminals (much like we view loan sharks today). All other races and religions, however, are fair game.

Simply


Pizz (5/2/02; 09:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 74752)
Banks running for Cover
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNEKpRSOTGVobWFu

Just trying to put a few pieces together.


Dollar falling.

Argentine banking crisis.

Japanese Banking Crisis looming.

Islamic community talking gold backed international currency (again).

And US banking being cut back world wide.


Snippit from above link:

London, May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fired 10 percent of its European investment banking staff, while J.P. Morgan slashed 23 percent of its Asian bankers as Wall Street firms pull back from foreign expansion.


Combined with this yesterday:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC

Bloomberg:
05/01 00:11
U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years

Now, not trying to be too much of a Cassandra, it sure is starting to appear to me that the beginning of the end of Dollar dominance may be upon us.

The multi-national banks appear to be going into "bunker" mentality.

Conclusion: There can be NO recovery anywhere in the world in the near to medium term with contracting banking.

Now, is every one shoring up for the recession/depression from hades, or is a financial nuke ready to go off?

My mind keeps flashing back to LTCM. It's common knowledge that they darn near started a world wide financial collapse, and LTCM has been called a lemonade stand as compared to Enron, let alone Argentina, and Japan's comming problems. ARE WE THAT MUCH BETTER PREPARED TO HANDLE THIS SIZE OF CRISIS? I wouldn't want that bet.

Gold? It's getting harder and harder to see how they can continue to hold the price down. With the mines cutting/covering their hedgebooks, the shorts have been swimming against the tide. Now, with the dollar dropping too, it has to be almost like trying to swim up a waterfall.

Something has to break IMHO.

Pizz



sector (5/2/02; 09:55:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74751)
The National Debt Default Thingy...maybe it's nothing...but Peter Fischer [Mr. Smash Gold] is in it and acting afraid.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.html
U.S. Could Face Debt Crunch on June 28
Treasury Running Out Of Room to Tap Funds

By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 2, 2002; Page E01

Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday.

On that date, the government must make more than $60 billion in semiannual interest payments to trust funds, primarily Social Security. While that is a paper transaction, consisting of new bonds, it counts against the government's $5.95 trillion debt limit. Officials said the Treasury plans to start using a variety of budget tricks later this month to keep the government below the debt limit, but they will not be enough to prevent default on June 28 if Congress does not raise the limit.

"The end of June is really the end of the party. There isn't anything past that," Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher said in an interview yesterday. "It is necessary that Congress do this before the end of June. We expect they are going to do it before the end of June. They need to do it before the end of June."

The administration asked for a $750 billion increase in the debt limit in December, but the request has stalled on Capitol Hill. Republicans have historically been reluctant to vote for an increase in the debt limit, while Democrats have blamed the president's tax cut last year for the current crisis.

"Every day, new information is released confirming that the budget surpluses of the 1990s have been squandered and the government is sliding back into bigger debt and deficits," said Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wherever Fischer is... gold is too. So all his budgetary sabre rattling portends some kind of hidden link between the debt ceiling and gold.

Lord knows M3 is already more than $2 Trillion above the debt ceiling.

The June date also matches reliable GATA's insider comments on a key stress time...we'll see.



CoBra(too) (5/2/02; 09:49:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74750)
OK - Hipplebeck -
Let us be conciliatory and say it's about the ... lberg! - Mt. of Olives? may be the accepted translation, though that kind of oil has (en-)lightened the benighted for centuries ... anyway, I offer you the olive branch - cb2 ;)




YGM (5/2/02; 09:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74749)
Now I Wonder How Many Knew That??
Gimli_ (5/2/02; 08:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74747)
That info sure took me by surprise.......

miner49er (5/2/02; 09:06:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74748)
nickel62 @74738
That was an excellent post, Sir... Your concise summarization of what is often referred to as "Dollar Hegemony" is a must read. Segue from there to the Foundation Posts of FOA in Archive I, and you will see him using these particulars to build the case for the development of an alternative currency to break this monopoly.

miner


Gimli_ (5/2/02; 08:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74747)
FWIW: Usury prohibited in Old Testament too....
Both Islamic and Mosaic Law prohibit usury. Hmmm....

Lev 25:36-37 Take thou no usury of him, or increase: but fear thy God; that thy brother may live with thee. Thou shalt not give him thy money upon usury, nor lend him thy victuals for increase.

Deut 23:19 Thou shalt not lend upon usury to thy brother; usury of money, usury of victuals, usury of any thing that is lent upon usury:


Hipplebeck (5/2/02; 08:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 74746)
cb2
Please excuse if I sound harsh, but keep your eye on the ball. It is ALL about that one piece of real estate at the temple mount. Whoever controls it, controls the covenant of the god of Abraham. It is not even about the Palestinian state. The war will be fought after all the hype that can be mustered becomes transparent and all the beating around the bushes leaves only the Jerusalem problem obviously insolvable. The temple mount is the ball. If you want to know what's really going on, keep your eye on it. The rest is just negotiating chips to get leverage for the real prize.

YGM (5/2/02; 08:31:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 74745)
Very Excellent Post......
nickel62 (5/2/02; 07:09:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74738)
My hats off to you for your clarity of thought....I think that the youth of today who protest so strongly against the WTO etc "ARE" on the right track.....Maybe there is hope as always in the 'Next' generation.....Keep those thoughts coming......Regards..YGM

YGM (5/2/02; 08:04:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74744)
LeSin...Islamic Law....Re-Financial Transactions....
http://www.murabitun.org/WITO/trading.html
You Posted.....

Thursday May 2, 3:29 am Eastern Time
10 Central Banks To Form Advisory Body On Islamic Financial Services

SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Central bankers from 10 Islamic countries have agreed to form an umbrella advisory body based in Kuala Lumpur to promote the application of Islamic law in their financial services industries.

The Islamic Financial Services Board, or IFSB, will set principles and adapt existing international standards consistent with Islamic law, or Shariah, according to a news release from the International Monetary Fund. Etc....




*SHARIAH*
Here is a brief of Islamic Law............"NO USURY


The Return of Islamic Trading


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


During the last two hundred years the Muslims have been forced to abandon their own way of conducting their public affairs. Thus Islamic Law has been progressively reduced to a code regarding only individual and sexual matters, while at the same time the ruling of trade and industry has been abandoned. The Murabitun are the first group of activist Muslims,who after this period of darkness, are re-establishing the practice of trade which is declared Halal (permitted) by the Shariah and are abandoning the usurious practices that have corrupted the commercial life at the present day. The Murabitun are leading other Muslims to return to the practice of Islamic Trading.

The Islamic Model concerning trade is based around the prohibition that Allah has made clear in the Qur'an:

"ALLAH HAS PERMITTED TRADE AND FORBIDDEN USURY"
(Qur'an 2, 275)

Allah also says in the Qur'an:

"OH YOU WHO BELIEVE! TAKE SHELTER IN GOD AND ABANDON WHAT REMAINED (DUE TO YOU) OF USURY IF YOU ARE (INDEED) BELIEVERS. BUT IF YOU DO IT NOT, THE TAKE NOTICE OF WAR FROM ALLAH AND HIS MESSENGER"
(Qur'an 2, 278-279)

We acknowledge that the crime of usury is being committed daily against all humanity by the banking system, resulting in the death of thousands of people throughout the world, the starvation of many others, the creation of the unnatural phenomenon of unemployment, the destruction of small businesses and the general impoverishment of most of mankind.

In the face of these well known disasters, at the time of a general recognition that the role of the banks is not innocent, when the majority of analysts recognise that interest debt is a direct cause of death and stagnation in poor countries. Everybody dislikes the banks, but are made to believe as if it were their own thought, that we need the banks! and there is nothing we can do about that! In the face of a general climate of resigned helplessness the Murabitun are creating active solutions. The way out of this usurious banking system must be based on the Islamic Model, in which usury is incompatible with life, proving that WE DO NOT NEED THE BANKS. Part of the model consists of the re-establishment of a successful network of Halal Trading throughout the world, that does not involve any form of interest-debt, control of products by speculative Future and Stock Markets, or any mediation of a bank.

The Islamic Model restores the economical power hijacked by the banks and the state to the common people. It is harmonious to the legitimate aspiration of the ethnic minorities who yearn for total emancipation from the grip of the modern banking-oriented artificial states in order to rule themselves. It returns the life to the impoverished workers by the rooting out of the parasite: The banks that live off the workers' work. In the Islamic Model unemployment does not exist, and the worker is not a slave of a salary, but enjoys his own business, usually in association, free from the compulsion of having to work for someone else for a paltry wage. In the Islamic Model multinationals and hyper-markets are eliminated; rather than one owner and one thousand employees as it is the case in any hyper-market today, in the Islamic Model we have a thousand free owners in an open Free Market. The Islamic Model removes any form of monopoly that has made everybody a humble salaried worker and thus gives a chance of independence to the self-motivated individual in a 'Free-Market-without-usury'.

The Murabitun are promoting the creation of this new way of trading ;or rather, the only one; consisting of:

Minting and putting in circulation of Gold and Silver coins.

Building Free Markets, regulated according to the Islamic Law.

Restoring commercial routes with caravans and fair contracting models.

Restoring the guilds as autonomous institutions of production

Establishing the authority of Judges to rule the commercial disputes.

The Islamic Law guarantees the removal of the smallest trace of usury from commercial agreements, thus guaranteeing the equity in the contracts.


**Now here is a model for CB's and the power behind the scenes to wage war if ever there was one....Noone could imagine the CB cartel of the western world allowing "NO USURY".............YGM.


nickel62 (5/2/02; 07:56:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74743)
Yes, I am a north american,
I am saddened that it has become necessary to state the obvious about my countries actions..seems it should be taught in school. But that is probably one of the reasons our public schools are allowed to remain so abysmal. Our world wide media gives brain washing a bad name, as we all know.

CoBra(too) (5/2/02; 07:51:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74742)
@ Nickel
Sir, I fully concur with your recent posts. I'm also grateful, that these thoughts have been forwarded by an North American - hope I'm correct here - instead of any other nationality... Who may have held these notions for quite some time - though, reluctant to state it officially
due to the concern of passing the blame and still benefitting ... Thank you cb2

PS - Hipplebeck - It's probably not so much Jerusalem or Bethlehem - it's probably in all reality about the availability of cheap oil ...





Hipplebeck (5/2/02; 07:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 74741)
nichel62
Well said sir!!
It came home to me solidly when I was watching that pbs special about the global economy.
They showed a man in India with some sort of grains piled up on his wagon being drawn by oxen. He was on his way to the market, and the commentator stated that the price of his grain was being set in the Chicago mercantile. This just makes me sick to see that some greedy suits who probably have never even stood in a field of grain are setting the living level of someone on the other side of the world. How can this possibly be? I cannot wait to see this system fall.

On watching the Middle East, I see that the media thinks we are on a safer road, but the only thing I see is that Arafat is being set up once again to be a policeman against his own people to "stop terrorism" It is all a joke, because no matter what window dressing they put on it, the big war is inevitable. No matter how much dancing around the subject they do, the war is about which flag flies over the temple mount. It is possible I suppose that we could all go into another period of "negotiations" while more settlements are built and things are consolidated on the ground, but don't expect it to last very long. The war is about Jerusalem, and the clock is ticking. Things will have to come to a head sooner or later. Economic collapse or world war? which comes first?


CoBra(too) (5/2/02; 07:21:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74740)
Barrick's Hedge Book - Already under Water!
Says Doug Pollitt - No wonder the co. is looking for more physical to keep the game afloat a little longer. Bill Murphy's take on Barrick trying a fast one on Anglo Gold is probably a bit premature in MHO as the real power behind Anglo Gold is Anglo American ... We'll see - cb2

" Globe says Barrick's profitable hedging days wane"

Barrick Gold Corp ABX
Shares issued 537,813,627 May 1 close $32.14
Thu 2 May 2002 In the News
The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, May 2, edition that Barrick
Gold saw its profit for the first quarter of 2002 fall almost 50 per cent
from the same period a year earlier as its ability to make money from its
hedge-trading activities diminishes. The Globe's Allan Robinson writes that
profit for the three months ended March 31 was $46-million or nine cents a
share, compared with a profit of $87-million or 16 cents a year earlier
(all figures U.S.). Last year's figure included a $52-million non-hedge
derivative gain. Barrick's revenue was $478-million, compared with
$499-million last year, as a result of lower production and prices on its
gold sales. The fair value of Barrick's hedge position has declined to a
loss of $127-million, down from a surplus of $356-million at the end of
2001, says Pollitt & Co. analyst Douglas Pollitt. "In the past, the company
booked gains from its hedge book into earnings," says Mr. Pollitt. "Now
they are losing money on the books." Barrick says that $483-million swing
in the off-balance-sheet item is mainly a result of the $23 rise in the
price of gold, and it represents 22 per cent of the gold reserves, which
are hedged.
(c) Copyright 2002 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.stockwatch.com



nickel62 (5/2/02; 07:18:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 74739)
In light of the previous commnets it is easy to see the entire crux of the US relationship with Isreal and the various oil producing countries of the Middle East...
In a nutshell the Saudis and the Iran/Kuwait/Iraq petroleum reserves(that are all fairly tightly located in a relatively small geographic area) contain the worlds lowest cost petroleum production. IF the US/UK were not able to ensure the control of these reserves then the price could be set at whatever level those who did control those areas wanted to charge..the game would be over...and the US/UK would be the servants and not the masters. The support of Isreal and its only populous possible combatant Egypt with unbelievable levels of direct foreign aid only makes sense in this light. We have the Isreali enforcer in the region to keep the muslim slaves in line..the royal family is there after all only because we put them in power and back it up with the US military might, but we need a close local power to punish those who might take actions against our control and that is the function of Isreal pure and simple...the other is all just dross to confuse and justify the process..It is time that we understood what we are really doing and see if the US population are really willing to lose their sons in the process.


nickel62 (5/2/02; 07:09:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74738)
Watching the Swisss lower rates and their Franc sink in currency markets...made me think!
The power that the world has given the US dollar to be the determinate of foreign trade has loosed a terrible tyranny in the world.
The current global trading structure allows the US and it's paper reserve currency the power to determine what the competitive position of all the world's people will be. As long as the US Federal Reserve is allowed to continue their relative monopoly on what is money they can force the rest of their trading partners to do things that may not be in the longterm best interests of those partners economies or their people.

When we can bubble our stock valuations and at the same time put downward pressure on the spot prices of any commodity we chose, the trading/banker establishment in the US can effectively vacuum up the value added from all those other countries that we trade with.They demand that our trading partners recycle their US dollar earnings from exporting to the US to be invested in US Treasury securities which lowers US interest rates even further, or they will be excluded from our domestic markets. They create freely floating currencies that allow them to determine the cost competiveness of all countries by changing the cost basis of the production and they fuel their own production by lending dollars to buy more US dollar denominated machinery and other production inputs at the then prevailing currency exchange rate.

By setting the spot price of commodities through market pressure acheived with unlimited leverage from Derivatives and unlimited US dollar credit creation the US can "set" the price of any commodity or currency at a price which doesn't even allow for the coverage of the costs of production of that product. This effectively makes the producers of these commodities slaves producing for a market in the US that pays them less than it costs them to produce these products if the true costs of the capital investment inputs are taken into account.

By controlling this process the transfer becomes a form of servitude. IF a country like Switzerland wants to fight against this process we will simply allow their currency to appreciate and their export industries become uncompetitive. If they fight the US dollar hegemony of these markets they will be destroyed by their own strong currency. If they argue about the gold dishoarding they will be rewarded with a Swiss Franc so highly valued their economies will suffer.

So our colonialism becomes irresistable for even the strongest countries and for the second and third tier countries of the world it is total slavery...produce at the market price we control or slump into recession and deperession from your lack of an exportable basis for your economy. As their industries become unable to replenish their capital base because the price we allow them to earn for their output is insufficient to earn them the ability to have any national wealth savings they are sucked further and further into the game.

They borrow from the IMF in US dollar loans to survive and this very borrowing then becomes further demand for dollars that allow their servitude to be perpetuated. A vicious new form of economic colonialism that robs the value creation of the whole world and transfers it into the hands of a small group of traders in the money centers of the west.

Our trading partners must return their export earnings to our capital markets through the US Strong Dollar policy and its various dictates or be denied access to the US market. Price your product at the lowest world price we can manipulate or be made totally reduntant and suffer the political turmoil in your own country as your population is forced into unemployment levels that are untenable.

The only answer is to make this monster visible for the victims before they fly another plane into the infrastructure of the beast to draw attention to the scheme.


LeSin (5/2/02; 06:55:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74737)
"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "
GOLD - "InStead of the US$"
Worth Repeating - sort of drives the message home,yes?

"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "

Cheers "S"


LeSin (5/2/02; 06:50:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74736)
Gold Dinar + Islamic Financial Principles @ "The Times They Are a Changing"
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020502/200205020329000129_1.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020502/200205020329000129_1.html


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday May 2, 3:29 am Eastern Time
10 Central Banks To Form Advisory Body On Islamic Financial Services

SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Central bankers from 10 Islamic countries have agreed to form an umbrella advisory body based in Kuala Lumpur to promote the application of Islamic law in their financial services industries.

The Islamic Financial Services Board, or IFSB, will set principles and adapt existing international standards consistent with Islamic law, or Shariah, according to a news release from the International Monetary Fund.

The agreement, reached on the sidelines of the recent IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington , D.C ., concludes two years of talks among the central bankers, the Islamic Development Bank and the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions....

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



"Malaysia plans to initially use gold dinar within small group "

"MALAYSIA plans to initially use the gold dinar as a currency for trading with a small group of countries, in the hope it would slowly gain international acceptance.
"We are trying to work it out with three or four countries that we have close ties with, said Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who proposed the system last month to reduce the risk of speculation in bilateral trading. "

"The Arab and Gulf states ... maybe they'll accept it,Ehe told reporters after attending a Labour Day function in Kuala Lumpur yesterday."

"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "

"The prime minister, who recently visited Libya, Bahrain and Morocco, said the three countries had responded enthusiastically to the plan."

"He said however that no deadline had been set for the launch."

"We have to solve the problems first. There will be lots of problems,EDr Mahathir said, adding that Malaysia intended to host an international conference on the subject."

"He said gold was also open to some risk of speculation but it was safer than conventional currency, which had no intrinsic value and could be manipulated indefinitely. "

"You cannot speculate too much in the price"


Black Blade (5/2/02; 05:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74735)
IEA Urges U.S. to Boost Production
http://cgi.wn.com/?action=display&article=13334400&template=gas/indexsearch.txt&index=recent

Snippit:

PARIS (AP) The United States must increase production of oil and natural gas if the country is to meet its future growth in energy demand and reduce its dependence on imports, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. ``A secure energy supply is essential to underpin economic growth,'' IEA Executive Director Robert Priddle told a news conference, after the agency released its review of U.S energy policies.

The Paris-based agency said current domestic production of natural gas which is growing at 4 percent a year was not enough to meet growing demand, and urged the United States to step up drilling in new areas both onshore and offshore. ``We'd like to see an opening up of the Arctic reserves in an environmentally sensitive way, because the U.S. needs new sources of supply,'' Priddle said.

The IEA also encouraged the re-licensing of existing nuclear power plants in the United States, saying that it would ensure a continuing, substantial component in power production. No nuclear plants have been constructed there since 1973.

Black Blade: Even the IEA (a French organization) understands that the supply of energy is important to the US economy and also a national security issue.



Topaz (5/2/02; 05:14:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74734)
@Canuck
Perhaps we may see a shift from promoting "value-adding to the Barbarous relic" eh? ...good link.

Black Blade (5/2/02; 04:51:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74733)
Dollar Stays on Defensive
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020502/markets_forex_2.html

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to pull off multi-month lows against the euro and the yen on Thursday as doubts over the United States' commitment to a strong currency persisted.

"We have seen a complete sea-change in sentiment toward the dollar, and people are now just looking for excuses to sell," said Neal Kimberley, manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.

The greenback, already reeling on concerns over the pace of U.S. recovery, suffered one of its biggest one-day falls this year on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill failed to convince markets over his country's commitment to a strong dollar policy.



Black Blade: The USD must weaken in order to narrow the booming trade deficit. Exporters can not compete in foreign markets and at the same time the recession deepens.


Topaz (5/2/02; 04:47:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74732)
No pressure, if lease rates are a guide.
http://www.lbma.org.uk/2002gofo.htm
Lease rates have laughed off the current uptick - which indicates most of the momentum has been created in the many forms of paper investments available to the "astute" Gold investor....sheesh!
On another front, Koisumi san has just completed a visit to Australia. Apart from the now mandatory visit to a War Museum, he discussed a Free Trade agreement with OZ. (thats the one.....you give us your resources....for FREE) however this time I feel it's different -
His visit comes hot on the heels of a Chinese Delegation - last week - and US noises re Free Trade of late.
Looks like World trade is Polarising into an US-v-Them situation quite quickly.


Canuck (5/2/02; 04:30:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 74731)
Godsell out of WGC, Chris Thompson in
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/walker/walker050202.html


"German buying being a significant factor was first brought to my attention by way of Chris Thompson of Gold Fields Ltd. As he is now replacing Bobby Godsell of Anglogold as head of the WGC, I would assume that he knows what he is talking about"

-end-

I was unaware of this!! This is good news.


Spartacus (5/2/02; 04:14:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74730)
the Indian gold market
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/walker/walker050202.html
Gold Shortage Now
George Walker
May 02, 2002

--It is absolutely fascinating to observe what is currently occurring in the world gold markets, as suddenly there seems to be a notable gold shortage. I estimate the shortage to be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 300 plus tonne annual deficit range. That is a rate of 25 tonnes per month. This shortage can be readily confirmed by monitoring the Indian gold market.--



Black Blade (5/2/02; 03:15:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74729)
Oil Falls as Arafat Emerges From Compound
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020502/markets_oil_2.html

Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about one percent on Thursday as Israel ended a siege of Palestinian headquarters in Ramallah, easing fears of a spread of violence and potential supply disruptions from the oil-rich Middle East.


Black Blade: I wonder if he saw his shadow? If he did does that mean 6 more weeks of winter?


Usul (5/2/02; 01:57:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74728)
"Bush administration... could default..."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.html
"Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday"

Does this spell increasing risk? Yields are compensation for risk - and here, circumstances are pointing towards raised interest rates. As Bill Gross of Pimco (no small-time money manager) has pointed out, nonfinancial corporate sector debt as a percentage of cash flow has risen to record highs, and they have apparently moved to short-term debt which is over-sensitive to rate hikes, thus putting Greenspan between a rock and a hard place. He is loath to raise rates because that would increase interest repayments big time, affecting both corporate and private sectors who have loaded up on cheap debt. But in being so constrained, he is asking for inflation to break loose. Yet if he raises rates too much, interest repayments will kill the retail economy stone dead. Greeny is balanced on a knife edge between an inflationary or deflationary recession. Gold should be useful to preserve wealth in either environment, IMHO!

"Does Greenspan dare do more in this next tightening cycle? Nay he will do less once the 9/11 emergency reductions have been taken back to a more normal 3% or so. Too many big time 'players' on the short side. The systemic risk is certainly anything but de minimus... And because Greenspan must keep short rates relatively low, the risk of inflation in future years will be greater than otherwise..." - William H. Gross, April 2002


Spartacus (5/2/02; 01:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 74727)
British funds cut U.S. holdings, go euro
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020430/markets_britain_allocation_2.html

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - British fund managers are shaving back exposure to U.S. assets in favour of the euro zone, driven by concerns that despite an economic recovery U.S. profits will not grow fast enough to justify valuations.




Spartacus (5/2/02; 01:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74726)
O'Neill Unbowed on Dollar
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18117-2002May1.html
By Paul Blustein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 2, 2002


Practically everyone who spoke at a Senate hearing yesterday agreed that the U.S. dollar is too strong and that America's trade deficit is dangerously high everyone, that is, except the man who mattered most, Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill.

And at the beginning of his testimony, he made it clear that he wasn't about to depart from his support for the policy, first articulated during the Clinton administration, that a strong dollar is in America's interest. The strength of the dollar against the Japanese yen, euro and other currencies makes U.S. exports more expensive on world markets and makes imports cheap, thereby causing the trade gap to widen. But O'Neill said he wouldn't alter his position.

"As I read the wire clips from around the world this morning, there's apparently some breathless anticipation [in currency markets] that I'm going to say something to intentionally indicate a change in policy position or direction," he told the panel. "I want to assure you at the outset, whatever I may say, that is not the intent."




Usul (5/2/02; 01:40:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74725)
Fiber-Optic Overdose Racks Up Casualties
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18217-2002May1.html
" "We may have put 80 years' worth of capital into the ground," said Vince Tobkin, director of the technology practice at consulting firm Bain & Co., referring to a massive installation of underground fiber-optic networks..."

"In time, however, Wall Street and the banks began to realize that the telecom overcapacity was so profound (less than 10 percent of all that fiber-optic wire is being used, for example), and unit prices were falling so fast (the cost of a cellular minute fell 25 percent in a year), that it was unlikely anyone was going to make any money anytime soon"

Me:
The overcapacity, malinvestment and corruption caused by a boom/bubble/bull of such magnitude will not be purged overnight! The bust will be pro-rata, IMHO. (Oh yes, and gold should serve well to preserve wealth in such an environment).


Usul (5/2/02; 01:34:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74724)
Dow breaks 10,000
Aaaaargh! It's deja vu all over again!

Usul (5/2/02; 01:32:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74723)
Stock market in dead-cat bounce
http://www.nypost.com/business/47049.htm
"...nothing more than a bear market rally..."

Usul (5/2/02; 01:31:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74722)
How Wall Street's Analysts Fooled Public on Verisign
http://www.nypost.com/business/47014.htm
"Even after their research is proven wrong, analysts are fooling with the facts to make it look as if they got clients out of the way of a collapsing stock..."


Usul (5/2/02; 01:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 74721)
Tokyo hits back at downgrade
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/01/1019441393795.html
"The Ministry of Finance has sent a letter of complaint to Standard and Poor's and Moody's, questioning their objectivity and reliability...

"Your explanations regarding rating decisions are mostly qualitative in nature and lack objective criteria, which invite questions about the larger issue of the reliability of ratings itself," a summary of his letter said."


Usul (5/2/02; 01:07:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74720)
Rich finds in volcanoes
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=1842941&thesection=news&thesubsection=general
"The submarine mountains contained some of the world's richest mineral deposits, including copper, lead and zinc, and gold at six parts per million - twice the ratio of gold mined at Macraes Flat near Dunedin"

sourdough (5/2/02; 00:44:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74719)
Trizezhahn exchangeable debentures (ABX)30 million shares
Can anyone make the argument that Munk, aka Trizechahn would prefer that ABX does not climb in price to be in the money on these debentures?
Can the same be said for any increase in the ABX dividend?
Dividend (ABX) is a factor in determining interest rate of debentures.
If gold were to rise and carry ABX with it into and above exhange rate, Munk would be at risk of either losing the 30 million ABX shares and the capital gain, or if he wanted to keep them, it would cost the higher price.
It would appear to me that the best thing for Trizechahn would be that gold and Barrick just stumble along at a price low enough to prevent exercise and necessity for Barrick to increase the dividend until the time they can pay back the loan.
This would be a good deal on interest rates if things don`t get out of hand and the gold price doesn`t drag Barrick up to high.
Can anybody see it this way, besides me?




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