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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/2/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/01; 23:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51305)
Japanese cautioned against parking funds in U.S. dollars
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010402/t51502_2.html
TOKYO, April 2 (Reuters) - As the new fiscal year starts, Japanese investors tired of low yields at home and a tumbling yen are looking poised for a splurge into U.S. Treasuries, but some analysts are advising caution and say such a move could be risky.
+
With 10-year interest rates near rock-bottom at around 1.350 percent and stock prices close to 16-year lows, Japanese investors are hoping foreign asset markets can offer stronger returns.
+
...But despite the yen's 30-month lows against the dollar struck on Monday, there are some sceptics who say the premise for subsequent flow of Japanese funds into Treasuries may not be so rock-solid.
+
Some also pointed out that the dollar was already near its highest levels in more than a decade when gauged against the trade-weighted average of six major currencies , and as a result could be looking a little overbought.
``If you take the dollar rate on the yen for example, the dollar gained more than 10 percent this year. I wonder how much room is left for the dollar to rise,'' the fund manager said. ----End_Excerpt-----
When the dollar fails to be as "good as gold", were can foreign investors park their funds when they seek to flee the domestic currency? Gold, of course. It is as 22-year lows (unlike the Nasdaq which has only fallen to two-and-a-half-year lows), so with gold you have peace of mind that you are not buying into the froth of an investment bubble.
Parsifal
(04/02/01; 23:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51304)
Tree in the Forest: Comex metals
Tree, from msg# 51300:
***
Copper though is another story. Stoppers for March numbered 8877 contracts and so far in April we have 3801 stoppers for a total of 12,678. At 12.5 short tons per contract this is 158,475 tons for delivery. Copper stocks continue to dribble in slowly but current stock is only 106,339 barely enough to meet March delivery much less April. Failing a large delivery to Comex, copper is in trouble. Since April copper
is already up for delivery, this may happen this month. Stay tuned.
***
OK, will stay tuned. What was the resolution to the similar situation you posted about Comex silver several days ago? Something about many contracts calling for delivery and there not being enough Comex silver to satisfy those stoppers. I expect that if there had been a near crisis or default, we would have heard about that. What happened?
In whatever polite tone is appropriate, I must say that I have read many, many articles on this and other similar forums the last few years that qualify as just another time when the little boy cried wolf, sometimes dealing with Au, sometimes Ag, and sometimes with other metals.
The very slow degradation in the POG feels to me as if it is absolutely the worst possible case. If the paper gold markets would just fail, and send the paper-gold price to zero, that would be a relief. Or, if the POG held steady (even if at these very low rates), that would be less painful that what we have now. What we have now is the worst. It is such that there is only a very thin case that can be made for holding an amount of physical gold in excess of a hunded or so ounces for use in times of the worst types of crises.
Two men in my head were talking:
GoldSalesman: Buy gold.
Me: Why?
GoldSalesman: Two reasons, its price will eventually go very high and make you wealthy, and in times of crises you wil need it to preserve your wealth. Financial crisis is coming.
Me: But, the POG has been declining steadily for years, and the type of crises in which I will need gold, although possible, have not happened in this country in my lifetime, or in my father's lifetime, or my grandfather's, or my great grandfather's. Beyond that, I don't know. It somehow makes it seem that the likelihood for that type of crisis is remote.
GoldSalesman: It will happen in your lifetime.
Me: When? I have suffered and caused others to suffer by locking so much money into gold. I must hide the gold, protect it. I worry about it. Gold provides no immediate benefit. I could have spent the money on so many other things, things that could have provided comfort, luxury, improved health, lengthened, strengthened, made me grow hair again.
GoldSalesman: Washington Agreement, hyperinflation, deflation, depression, war, Comex defaults, TOCOM defaults, BOE overextended, LBMA paper-gold derivitive defaults, market breakdown, Chinese physical gold market coming soon, EU, European Central Bank physical gold market, BIS plays trump card, euro becomes reserve currency, U.S. dollar falls from reserve currency status, Arabs hold mountains of paper gold contracts that must be honored, gold for oil, euro will displace the dollar in trade for oil, . . .
Me: Yes, yes, I have been listening for years. None of those issues seems to have done much for the POG. It's still low and falling.
GoldSalesman: See what I mean!! It's a great time to buy gold! Buy it now before the coming big price increases.
Parsifal
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/01; 23:36:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51303)
A Canadian incentive...or compelling reason for Americans to diversify into gold sooner than later?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010402/n02380791_2.html
HEADLINE: Canada dollar slips to new 2-1/2 year low
TORONTO, April 2 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar fell below
C$1.58 against the U.S. dollar for the first time in 2-1/2 years on Monday and was on the brink of tumbling to its record low of C$1.5850.
+
Dealers said its slide primarily reflects the strength of the U.S. dollar rather than the weakness of the Canadian one.
...
The greenback has been steamrolling over most currencies in recent sessions with the Australian dollar and South African rand among its latest casualties. Both currencies sank to record lows against the U.S. dollar. ----END_excerpt----
This will not help the U.S. move meaningfully toward a balance on International trade of goods and services. When the next trade report comes out (in 2-1/2 weeks), you can likely expect to see that the U.S. continues to suffer a large net outflow of gold to our foreign trade partners. On a personal household basis (the one that truly matters MOST) are you a net gold importer? Let's hope so. At 22-year-low prices in the American currency, buying gold has never been easier.
AUgustUS
(04/02/01; 23:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 51302)
********The New Fifth Horseman***********
Throughout these past few months, several "lone" horseman have been sent out into the world of gold. "Y2K" was but one of several knights sent out by our fifth horseman to create a subtle diversion. "Y2K's" mission has been accomplished. "Y2K" merely revealed one of the many "faces" of our 5th horseman. The face revealed was that of ........"complacency". Do not be fooled. Complacency is not our 5th horseman. Complacency is but one of his "fallible" attributes.
The doom and gloom predictions surrounding Y2K - were NOT "fulfilled". Numerous doom and gloom scenarios that have "threatened" the worlds' financial system over the past few years - have apparently - NOT been "fulfilled". This may well be wishful thinking.
The Euro's introduction is still being debated in the "media" in terms of whether it is going to be successfully launched or not. The fact that the EU is "managing" it's currency on a "sound" monetary basis is lost to the "economists" of the world. The fact that the EU has been following a "stricter" interest rate policy than the US these past few months indicates their commitment to the long-term standing of the Euro as a worthy "international" trade currency substitute to the US dollar. The merits of the Euro and it's functioning have been well explained by others more proficient than myself.
Oil has been delivering on his promise - yet his effects are still being labeled by the "media" as a short-term anomaly. The repercussions of his actions are being "massaged away" through "trusted statistics". Improvements in PC processing power and now the possibility of improved medical technology are being labeled as "cost saving" and "productivity enhancing" indicators. Given that food and energy are not important to anybody - these are conveniently left out of the equations. However, just as the Euro is well on the road to fulfill it's international monetary role, so has the soft underbelly of the entire "real economic production chain" been exposed by the superb "disguised" performance of oil.
The stock market meltdown is still being debated in terms of whether it is - or is not - in a bear market. The media has not made much fuss about Cisco. Just over a year ago, Cisco was apparently the largest company in the world by market capitalization. As of last week (only 1 year later), it is now some 70-80 % down from it's high's. Think about that for a minute. The largest company in the world just over a year ago is now down 70-80 %. Are we in a bear market or not ? Does the performance of Cisco as the largest company in the world just over a year ago not give us some idea of what we can expect ? "Complacency" and "rationalisation" (another face of our 5th horseman) suggests that Cisco was just another anomaly.
The Asian contango has also merely been brushed under the carpet by the "media". Many skeletons still hang in those dusty "old" cupboards. They have all been declared "dead" by the media - while "complacency", "rationalisation" and "hope" (yet another face of our 5th horseman) have not bothered to follow up with the burials. These skeletons are all going to need to be "buried" before the living can continue on their journeys. As with all things in life, the chapters of life can only continue once the previous ones have been properly closed. There are still many chapters to be written. However, there are many chapters that first need to be properly closed. The burials are going to painful, but necessary.
So then, what do these few faces (complacency, rationalisation & hope) reveal about the identity of our 5th horseman and his much anticipated rush to physical gold ownership ? The revealed faces are those of "the man in the street". Our 5th horseman is no one other than "the man in the street".
All the "permanent" and "temporary" horseman todate have simply been preparing the battle lines along which the final rush to gold will play itself out. The 5th horseman is waiting in the wings. He has been using every "face" available to "avoid" joining the fray. Once the "stage has been set" - our 5th horseman will be set loose to "play his part".
The final catalyst to the unfolding world events will be the full participation of our 5th horseman racing down centre stage. Through the harnessing of the "uncontrollable (yet directable) animal instincts" of our 5th horseman - the "landscape" as we currently know it will be permanently changed.
JMB
(04/02/01; 21:51:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51301)
R POWELL
I thought my ears were deceiving me but Sir CANAMANi's confirmation has provoked an evening of hyper-optimism and a general feeling of ecstasy. That is, until you posted your query. I had suppressed Mr. Insana's subsequent conversation with the dastardly Joe Kernan. When Mr. Insana asked Kernan for his opinion re gold, the base dung hill lout muttered something incomprehensible while shaking his head in the negative. The prick! Kernan, in a matter of seconds had undone the noble effort of Mr. Insana, aka THE NEW FIFTH HORSEMAN.
And now for a glass of grape juice and off to bed.
Tree in the Forest
(04/02/01; 20:04:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51300)
Comex metals
It appears that gold has broken out to the downside out of it's falling wedge which at this point would be an apex around $260. It should be interesting to see if support at $252 can hold. The analytical link to longwaves that I posted a few weeks ago, predicted a possible spike down in gold to below $200 to be followed by a sharp rise some time after April 30. This is such a manipulated market however, that it's anybody's guess and only the PE knows for sure.
In spite of predictions of an impending aluminum shortage, this may take a while to develop. Comex Aluminum stocks stand in excess of 100,000 short tons with OI for near months at around 1600 contracts or around 35,000 tons. So if a problem is going to develop in aluminum, it's not showing up so far in the Comex numbers.
Copper though is another story. Stoppers for March numbered 8877 contracts and so far in April we have 3801 stoppers for a total of 12,678. At 12.5 short tons per contract this is 158,475 tons for delivery. Copper stocks continue to dribble in slowly but current stock is only 106,339 barely enough to meet March delivery much less April. Failing a large delivery to Comex, copper is in trouble. Since April copper is already up for delivery, this may happen this month. Stay tuned.
YGM
(04/02/01; 19:23:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 51299)
R Powell
Rich..
Not many adventures, just using mining equip for everything 'BUT' mining....One winter in oilpatch was worth more than last five in the goldfields! Thanks for asking.
I'll let that placer gold sit for another 40,000 plus years before ever returning to the creeks at under $500. p/oz.
(I'll project my timeframe of that being in 2002) Here's hoping anyway...Keep the faith. Hope you're well and prospering, as well as all the forum folks here and absent.
....Ken
ax
(04/02/01; 19:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51298)
INDUSTRIAL GOLD USE CONFERENCE TUESDAY
Keep your eye on the Catalytic Gold Conference commencing
in Cape Town tomorrow. Researchers are coming from all over the world. Platinum and Palladium may soon have some
significant competition in specific areas of industrial
consumption.
R Powell
(04/02/01; 19:09:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51297)
********The New Fifth Horseman***********
From CNBC, (drum roll)... Mr. Ron Insana!!
R Powell
(04/02/01; 17:57:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51296)
Many posts to read
Wow! This is great. We must be getting near to the contest deadline, no?
JMB Did you really hear Ron Insanea mention gold and safe haven in the same sentence. There was a time when a word from his mouth could double a dot com in a heartbeat. If it's gold he favors, I certainly hope he hasn't lost his touch. Maybe we should buy him breakfast tomorrow to make sure he's bright eyed and bushy tailed.
Rockgrabber, I've used Lind-Waldock for years with no problems whatsoever. $22 round trip, deep discount, They fill orders only. That's all I want to pay for. Advice I get here. For physical, M.K.,of course.
YGM!! Great to hear from you. Tell us of your adventures while you were away.
Rich
canamami
(04/02/01; 17:03:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51295)
*****Fifth Horseman******
I don't have the time to write a long piece like I did in the last Fifth Horseman contest. However, a shorter piece will suffice in any event because my candidate is simple and straightforward - the Fifth Horseman will be BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS and all that that entails.
It seems to be gold does well in periods of DISEQUILIBRIUM; gold thrives when bad men and negative economic events are in the ascendancy. If savings, investment, consumption, and currency and real wealth creation were always in perfect harmony - and if all debtors and would-be debtors always creditworthy - arguably there would be no need for gold. However, such a state of affairs does not exist. Hence, the need for gold in the function it serves.
One specific instance of DISEQUILIBRIUM is BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS, or the aging of the baby boom. The boomer must defer consumption, and try to save and invest for retirement. The relative numbers of the boomer generation itself constitutes disequilibrium; in other words, the generations are out of whack demographically. Also, over and above their disproportionate numbers, the boomers "earn" a disproportionate amount of the nation's wealth. Hence, the quantum of savings or - more properly - attempted savings is not conducive to harmonious economic activity. For a while, the market was a great way not only to "save"(or so everyone thought), but to grow effortless wealth. However, this growth in share price valuations was a function of asset inflation. Too much boomer money, as well as borrowed money from boomers and other age groups, was chasing too few stocks. The apparent rise in valuations sucked more and more currency into the equity markets. The trouble was, this couldn't go on forever. Unlike some on this Forum, I don't view equities as a great Satan; at root, they're just a means of owning a business. The trouble is, at some point the share price valuations have to accord in some meaningful way with a company's earnings or, for the more aggressive investors or speculators, with the potential, future earnings. This is why the tech sector exploded; it was possible for some to delude themselves into believing that earnings could catch up with valuations, whereas such delusions were not possible with mature companies possessing more predictable earnings profiles.
I will segue in to the analogy of the sponge. When there is too much currency or liquidity, it gets needs to get soaked up by a sponge.
Traditionally, gold served as the sponge, sucking up the excess currency and liquidity. With the dawn of technology, it became easier to purchase equities and equity mutual funds. Hence, there was indeed a paradigm shift which made equities easier to own, and which would legitimately increase their relative role in individual's economic lives. However, the influx of money into relatively few equities (exacerbated by the popularity of index funds) resulted in perverse economic signals being sent. The rapid rise in equities' valuations sucked more liquidity into the equities "sponge". And why not, you couldn't lose? Of course, the equities sponge has limited absorption capacity, because of the need to keep some rational semblance between the valuations, and earnings and/or earnings potential. Essentially, the equities markets have hit their absorption capacity. In fact, they are now discharging water.
Where does the water, or liquidity, discharged by the equities sponge go? It goes into Treasuries, money market funds and savings/chequing accounts. the trouble is, this sponge also has a limited capacity to absorb liquidity. For this sort of savings/investment vehicle to work, there must exist creditworthy debtors and potential debtors. At some point, there exists too much money to loan, and not enough creditworthy borrowers. One either must risk lending to those who are higher risks, or face a very low or no rate of return. In fact, one could face a liquidity trap, where there exists negative rates of real interest. In fact, in Canada, when interest rates went down too low, bank service charges went up. Such service charges must be considered in assessing the real rate of return.
At some point, the bonds/money market funds/savings accounts,etc., will have to discharge some liquidity, due to their limited absorption capacity. First, as stated above, there will be negative rates of real return. Second, there will be credit risk and default risk. Even in a bank, the government insurance is limited to a certain amount, and it can take years to collect.
Once equities and debt instruments reach their absorption capacity, the next sponge will be gold. Gold has yet to serve this function for the boomers for various reasons. First, the boomers were generally not raised to equate gold with money in any serious way. (This is especially true of late boomers such as myself, and those born subsequent to the boomers). Second, equities were doing so well, few thought of gold. Third, central bank and bullion bank activities released many new gold sponges onto the market, such that the individual sponges did not grow larger as they absorbed more liquidity.
However, the situation is changing. Not only are equities not viewed as a good investment, but losses mean they have lost their cachet as a form of savings. Also, debt-based instruments will eventually lose their cachet because of negative rates of return and credit/default risk. That leaves gold. The POG is beaten down so far, it should increase as money finally starts chasing gold again. The rise in the POG will generate interest some buzz, and more buying interest. Also, physical gold has no $20,000 or $60,000 (in Canada it's $60,000) insurance ceiling on safety deposits; physical gold solves the credit/default risk problem. Gold does not need to justify its valuation on a P/E basis, as equities must eventually do. Finally, as more people own gold, the government will be less inclined to artificially suppress the POG because such actions will impoverish the politically powerful boomers. Also, suppressing the POG would create a negative wealth effect as we're now experiencing with the equities markets.
In short, I submit BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS will be the Fifth Horseman.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/01; 16:37:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 51294)
Fed adds $8.9 billion to banking system reserves today
Two billion was in the form of 28-day repurchase agreements, the balance in overnight repos.
Banks had been trading federal funds 25 basis points over the FOMC target.
I will rejoin the currency vs. savings discussion tomorrow when posting traffic is lighter upon the imminent conclusion of MK's contest period...now 25 minutes away.
justamereBear
(04/02/01; 16:30:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51293)
J'Man 51276
That is one interesting post. Maybe as in eventful in the chinese way.
j'Bear
Belgian
(04/02/01; 16:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 51292)
Washy Tonnes do Agree...
Europ, wants a "STABLE" Euro ! That is their main message in the final run to 1/1/2002. The dollar is getting nervous and uncertain about its own faith. The dollar is not waiting for the world to decide if they are going to flirt with the Euro or stay in love with the dollar for ever.
So, Lady Dollar is dressing up and sister YEN, encourages the boys for the last tango.
Europ's dollar-reserves, can be exchanged (into strength) for some more cheap gold, to add to the already 15% backing.
So, what purpose does it serve to the dollar, in knocking the Euro down ? Europ doesn't need an absurd overvalued dollar in its reserves anymore and has enough ammunition to teach the dollar a gold-lesson, by crashing the paper gold circus and dynamite POG into orbit. Am I openly declaring a dollar war here already ?
auspec
(04/02/01; 16:26:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51291)
St. Pete #51282
Nice job, you have decorated the bullish gold case in splendor!
justamereBear
(04/02/01; 16:26:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51290)
*******266.00******
I don't recall what the deadline is, nor am I sure whether 266 is taken. If so, please add increments of .10 till you find an open spot.
On balance this is a crapshoot, and IMHO we are talking about a normal range, with a slight bias to the upside. Personally, I don't think the party will get started until later in the year. Maybe I am just telling myself that to avoid being uptight.
j'Bear
Simply Me
(04/02/01; 16:10:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51289)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse has not failed! Nor has he disappeared! He has only changed his name and his appearance. Instead of armor, this Horseman wears veils. His power is in his insubstantial nature. He destroys his opponents by wasting their energy...making them tilt at
windmills like mad Don Qixotes.
He appeared in 1999 as the Y2k bug, threatening to destroy our computer-driven life support system. But since that name no longer inspires dread, he is busy morphing into a new persona. His new face has not yet set. He may choose to be War in the Middle East. Or, more promising, maybe he will take on the face of the Euro and threaten to destroy the US Dollars economic supremacy. But most likely, he will take the face of China...a triple threat if ever there was one! Industrial competition, military opposition, AND a natural appetite for gold in newly opened markets, just now making it's power known to the rest of the world!
But as I said, this is only one of the Fifth Horseman's illusory names and faces. Strip away his veils and illusions and you will see only FEAR. Fear is his true name. Fear for livelihoods. Fear for safety. Fear for the ability to provide food and shelter for our families.
Fear made thousands buy gold in 1999 in preparation for in Y2k meltdown. And along with his brother Horsemen, Fear will drive all of our economic preparations again, in the US and in every other part of the world. Fear is known everywhere; he wears different names and faces for different coutries and cultures, but there he is nonetheless. Fear drives gold demand, which in turn creates scarcity and higher prices. Fear is the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalyptic Reign of Gold.
Thanks for the opportunity to participate,
simply
justamereBear
(04/02/01; 16:10:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51288)
IronHead 51252
IMHO fast will not be the word for it. Blindingly fast comes does not even cover it. Yet, I will also wager that as depressed as the area you seem to be in, most people are still of the opinion that this is a passing phase, and that things will get better. I still see those who have money as waiting for the right time to get back into the market. Mutual fund investors are still in it for the long term. Long term poverty I'd say. You, or perhaps better said, we at the forum are much more aware of, and sensitive to, the signals and symptoms that are appearing than almost any other group, I would think. Most of the problem I see here at the forum is the amazement that the populace cannot see what to us is self evident. The general populace will stumble to the same conclusion in their own good time.
A few thoughts re Japan. In 1989 the financial situation for the country was rock solid, particularly vis a vis most other countries. The Nikki finished the year at 39000 and change, say 40,000. In Mar 90, my wife and I looked at buying a 3LDK, sort of a 1 bedroom apartment condo. I am going to quote in Canadian dollars because that is where I'm from, but at the time the the Can$ was about 3/4 of the US buck, as opposed to today at 2/3 of a buck. Condo prices were in the $1.8 to 2.0 million range in that location. (Just outside Tokyo city limits. Across the Tama river which is the city limit.) Banks had loaned money as mortgages on almost all propery in Japan. **based on the assessed value** In most cases, over 80% of assessed value. A good deal of this increase in asset value, mortgage money, was invested in the stock market, which was going to go up forever. Some even borrowed personal money, or traded on margin. Sound Familiar?
My wife, in 1989, earned about $15,000 salary, and an annual bonus of $10,000. Total $25,000 Her brother who was a manager (sort of a seniority driven supervisor), and who was not especially bright, but was male with wife and kids, earned a salary of $20,000, and a bonus of $25,000. Total $45,000. Bonuses of this order were accepted and thought of as being a permanent part of the salary across Japan.
A year later the Nikki was at or near 14,500. House prices had fallen by 70%. No one in Japan got a bonus. The average salary had fallen by 50% or more. The banks who had a mortgage of say 80% of $2 million, or $1.6 million, were faced with a customer who could not meet the payments on his 50 or 100 year mortgage, because of his salary cuts. The resale value of the house now was 30% of 2 million or $600,000. (Providing the market was not flooded with repossed homes) The banks were underwater by about a million dollars per house. (or condo)Then of course the margin type loans were also to be considered. As well as some of the business loans were going sour. So much so that the cast in stone "job for life" got a jolt when companies started letting people go.
Everybody started papering over the cracks as fast as possible. The government, which had been sitting on a huge surplus, started spending wildly. Today it is indebted to the extent that it is among the worst per capita in the developed counties. Canada and the US are already borrowed up to the ying yang, and don't have that option. AG is printing IOU's like mad. It is the only option he has. As long as Joe Sixpack snoozes on, it works. If the slightest thing wakens Joe, Katie bar the door. A non existant quote from AG Thank god Joe is a heavy sleeper.
Personally, I do not see such terrible things till fall. Summer is bright, and light, and a time of growing and hope. When the bleak days, and long nights of fall begin to depress Joe, I want to have everything in place. But then I have been wrong before.
j'Bear
Simply Me
(04/02/01; 16:04:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51287)
+++++ $256.80 +++++
The price of paper gold will not change much in the near future. The paper game is still unwinding. Paper gold players must dwindle down to the unpowerful, uninformed and unimportant few that can safely be allowed to kick and twist in the wind before the game can be allowed to end.
simply
Peter Asher
(04/02/01; 15:57:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 51286)
Journeyman msg#: 51276)
I see both of us are thinking about the FDR assisted attack on Pearl Harbor.
Just who's "infamy" was he really referring to do you suppose?
Peter Asher
(04/02/01; 15:52:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51285)
+++++$264.40+++++
Feels like something is blowing in the wind and there may be a lot of fear and concern to cause investors to end the week in protective mode.
YGM
(04/02/01; 15:51:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 51284)
Just dropped by....
to say Hello!
YGM is still a goldbug, although gone for some months! Better to work for worthless paper and buy the Gold than to waste a life and a fortune mining it.....Hang in there and onto those thoughts of a Gold price explosion as it will come. Hopefully w/o bloodshed of war. Maybe just bleeding gold shorts and Goldman Sachs shareholders. See you all down the road.....YGM.
GO GATA, GO GOLD AND "GO PHYSICAL"
canamami
(04/02/01; 15:47:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51283)
+++++++++258.00++++++++++
It's a tough call, as I could see the June contract go to 266.00 over the China incident. However, the incident will be resolved, and the the POG will settle at $258.00 by week's end.
Peter Asher
(04/02/01; 15:45:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51282)
******The New Fifth Horseman******
The Galloping Generation Gap
The new threat to the system is that power generation capacity is tapping out. Almost every day we have seen further news of insufficiency both in present time and in the immediate future. The constantly increasing demand has suddenly collided with static capacity, higher fuel costs for generation and a hydro-electric drought throughout the West. The shortfall will stimulate massive investment to create new generation and distribution facilities and new automotive and generation technologies. This will create a boom in those industries along with a surge in demand for copper, silver and any other commodity that is part of the equation. This will require a mobilization, albeit on a smaller scale, akin to the "War Effort" of WWII.
After-market investing routes borrowed funds through equities into the hands of consumers. However, financing the above will inject working capital into the system. This results in the expansion of the infrastructure which, in turn, serves to produce and deliver. Only after that occurs does the money then flow into consumption, via the hands of those employed.
I propose that there are three basic forms of price inflation: stagflation, hyperinflation and cost- based inflation. Stagflation occurs when a confluence of high capital and production costs create an environment in which only the most solvent entities are left standing and able to command the higher price of survival. Hyperinflation is specifically a phenomena of massive currency buying power operating in an environment of low productive capability and scarce resources. In this presnt case we will have an economic mobilization injecting credit into activities that create production and full employment while not simultaneously creating more consumer good and services in the process. As this activity gathers momentum it will offset the disinflation thrust of the current seller's market in the existing economic pipeline. As a "cost-based" inflation, this will not be subject to the gyrations of monetary antics and therein lies a different environment regarding gold.
Over the past four years we have seen the greatest economic boom in history occur without a significant price inflation nor a concurrent demand market for gold. My conclusion on this, is that market competition generated by the Internet carved out a huge portion of the mercantile profit in the system, thereby offsetting the inflationary thrust of a ‘fat pocketbook economy'.Any ‘wealth transfer' boom is empirically destined to burnout and fall back and therefore ‘Knowledgeable' long term money has not (yet) been accumulating gold.
In a product based economic expansion however, the rising price levels are built on a solid foundation. That may stabilize when the event has run its course but it is then a larger economic structure capable of sustaining itself without a subsequent contraction. The "War Effort" was proof of that. War Bond capitalization built a massive productive infrastructure which was then in place for the "Postwar boom."What had been brought forth to produce tanks, guns , ships and aircraft converted to countless new products across the economic spectrum.
Consider where the price of gold would have been had it been available as an investment vehicle at that time. Then, consider also, that FDR confiscated gold prior to letting Pearl Harbor come about and create WWII to resurrect our economy. From there it is only one small step further to believe that the first event was put in place because the second one was already on the drawing board.
In conclusion then, it is absolutely essential that mobilization of power generation and new energy technologies take place. There will not b a doomsday scenario, The movers and shakers with their hundred million dollar equity portfolios are not going to let the wealth factor vaporize. This is why they fired the Democrats and rehired the Republicans; the system was being cannibalized.
If the phenomena apply as I have laid it out, a firm demand for gold should ensue. What happens next, with a 14000 (?) Ton short position, is something this Forum will enjoy contemplating.
Christian
(04/02/01; 15:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 51281)
@CoBra(too) Bush Sr-Rubin
Bush Sr.+Rubin are in control of the cabel manipulation and theft game. The stock and commodity market is a game where money "flows through" these markets rather then being "in" it. They simply take investors money and place it into their account. The very fact that they --Bush Sr. + Rubin with the help of Mark Reich settle trillions of dollars of trade imbalances every year with gold is what makes the dollar's value stable. Making $5trillion in less then 2 years is not much good if the dollar does not hold value. Just watch how the dollar increases in value during the next few years as more and more people struggle to come up with mortgage payments with dollars that are no longer in circulation. Same thing happened in the 30's. A lot of people lost everything during that time. Next year the real estate bubble will burst and then comes the dollar value bubble. When the dollar goes interest rates will head for the moon. We the people are screwed and there is little anyone can do about it. Reich was instrumental in moving Russia's gold out of Russia and also moved Fort Knox gold out of USA. It is this gold the Hedge Funds are using to manipulate this market. Bush Sr. is by far the largest holder of 7 of the Largest Hedge Funds in the World...... Al Gore is doing what?? in Russia??????? Why is there 32 accounts at Goldman Sachs who control over 90% of Russian Real Estate.
auspec
(04/02/01; 15:21:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 51280)
SALMON
Franco-Nevada
Very interesying, thanks SALMON. That leaves Franco with approx 20% of the Ken Snyder mine {via stock} and at least 20% of Normandy. Questions...... Did Franco already own shares in Normandy? What is Normandy's hedge position? Initially Franco was more of a royalty Co, but couldn't pass up operating the Ken Snyder Mine. Difficulties therein may have changed their perspective. On the other hand they wanted to merge with Goldfields. Wonder what their long term objective now is; royalty or mega miner? They are the good guys until proven otherwise, so hopefully they can control a sizeable amount of resources before this consolidation phase ends. Regardless of their direction/philosophy they will likely treat shareholders to great value and profits! Thanks Franco.
beesting
(04/02/01; 15:14:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 51279)
Making your Physical Gold Work for You.
http://www.goldmoney.com/public/getting_started/goldmoney.html
Adding to Sir journeymans fine post # 51260 ( The Fifth Horseman).
James Turks e-gold plan allows the storage of physical Gold (currently 400 ounces) to back your "Gold-Grams".
For every approx 81 people(Or Entities) that store 400 ounces of physical Gold that would = about one tonne of Gold, under the ownership of someone other than a Central Bank.
If eventually 810 people(Or Entities) stored their physical this way that would be about 10 tonnes.
8100 people worldwide would = about 100 tonnes!
Rhetorical Question:
How long would it take us die hard Gold Hearts to own enough physical to cause a shortage(And Higher POG) in known world supplies, using the above formula?
Thanks for Reading.....beesting.
Canuck Gold
(04/02/01; 15:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51278)
+++++ $258.5 +++++
The price has eased down over the last few days but I expect it to run into resistance preventing it from falling below $255, followed by a little bounce.
CG
Mr Gresham
(04/02/01; 15:04:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 51277)
24Wortel
Bravo, also! Sounds like you, too, have kept on searching for a "Heart of Gold". (Was Neil our "Buy" signal for the '70s? Wrong generation listening? -- they had the money; we had the music.)
TRUTH: the stranger at the table, face obscured in his hooded robe. Then: "You have known me heretofore as the Black Knight of investment despair. Know me henceforth as your King, Richar' Coeur d'Or."
Well done, Sir Knight. (Hey, Oro, sorry but... -- remember I said while I'm here, I'm gonna either (1) make money, (2) learn, or (3) have fun while I'm waiting for #1. Well -- "2 out of 3 ain't bad...")
Journeyman
(04/02/01; 14:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51276)
The next big setup - - - or just a mistake? @ALL
I had dinner with a few friends Saturday night. One works near
Quantico, Virginia, the largest Marine base in the country and
commutes back here on week-ends. He reported that the big guns at
Quantico were firing day and night ALL LAST WEEK. Further, he
told us, the long-time residents explained to him that when this
happens, there's about to be major military action somewhere in
the world. I questioned him carefully, and he indicated that this
was the consensus of the folks living in the area. He also
reported seeing alot of "white busses" traveling around the area,
which is apparently unusual.
Also, someone who knows a Navy Seal reported that his friend
suddenly disappeared without any explanation. This is a hallmark
of preparations for military action _somewhere_.
Where? I sure hope, if these early indicators are correct, it
isn't China over the spy-plane incident. Because all those
preparations were happening BEFORE the spy-plane incident, and if
it IS China, it implies that the plane incident is just a part of
a pre-ordained PLAN!
And, while it seems far-fetched, there _is_ the April Glaspie
scam that lured Hussein into Kuait, the Gulf of Tonkin fiction
that got U.S. into Viet Nam, etc. - - - AND that grandaddy of
them all, the FDR-instigated attack on Pearl Harbor, used to get
U.S. public support behind U.S. entry into WWII.
If not China then where?
Or is this all just normal military exercises and paranoia on my
part? Or too much PandaGold?
Regards,
Journeyman
canamami
(04/02/01; 14:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 51275)
Reply to JMB - post 51265
Yes, Ron Insana said that. Is CNBC getting ready to ride the gold wave?
auspec
(04/02/01; 14:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51274)
CoBra{too}
Breaker, Breaker.....
You are so right about what GATA has to sell,
Many will find that CNBC is NOT the Holy Grail,
But of more importance... I've lost your e-mail!
rtmauspec@hotmail.com
Chris Powell
(04/02/01; 14:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51273)
Russian gold producers express interest in GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/726
Wall Street's imperialism is far worse
than Russia's these days.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
SALMON
(04/02/01; 14:30:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51272)
Franco-Nevada
Franco-Nevada exchanges the Ken Snyder mine for a 19.9% strategic interest in Normandy Mining Limited
JMB
(04/02/01; 14:07:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51271)
24WORTEL
CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP BRAVO BRAVO more more ENCORE!
Way to go Sir.
CoBra(too)
(04/02/01; 14:04:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51270)
Professor von Braun at his best ...
... A gold bird in the hand is worth two in the BUSH -
As the good professor is kind enough to post here as well, I will abstain from posting a link, though I'm happy he was lauding Bill Murphy, the Cafe and GATA directly and -snippet- CNBC is looking more like Monty Python, no disrespect to John Cleese intended. "What is regarded as expert advice by most expert business commentators, well I mean experts, experts on what? What else is Joe 'the parrot' Battapiglia going to say other than "this is a great buying opportunity?" ... an expertise followed by all in lieu of a new game in town, or let's sink together in lieu of "thinking" for your yourself - or call it momentum investing, or better building pyramids upside down ( see Mitchener's 'Mexico' - The drunken builders and brewers of Mescal/Mesquite). Neat - I'll opt for gold - physical and out of town shut in reserves - for my nerves -
... cb2 ... and you?
Genoo
(04/02/01; 13:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51269)
*****256.60*****
A test of the recent low for bullion seems in progress
Genoo
(04/02/01; 13:53:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51268)
******The New Fifth Horseman*****
The new fifth horseman is the coming resolution of the enormous current US debt load.
So far, the market is still largely in denial of the loss of the bull market and bull economy. It doesn't quite believe that it's really gone and is still hoping it will soon be back so that losses will not have to be faced and the party can go on. Market forces are still trying to rationalize what has happened as something that can be rapidly reversed.
For example the majority of analysts are bullish. Even top rated economists, one being the chief Merrill guru, recently wrote that the economic recovery has been delayed by Greenspan "fumbling" by having recently dropped short rates only 50 basis points compared to the expected 75 point decrease. I wonder when the Fed last dropped rates 150 points in 3 months? Perspective reveals the shallowness and even silliness of such an argument.
What has been delayed is the market's adjustment to reality. A large factor delaying the processing of the new reality is the denial of the unprecedented debt load across the board from personal to corporate. The amount of economic pain that will be associated with facing and dealing with that debt, being largely unknown, is perhaps as yet too scarey for the 'market' to face. Once faced, all major markets will correct to the appropriate level. The consequences of that correction will be felt by everyone and will include a new and appropriate value for the US dollar.
Given all of the uncertainty and the historic inverse relationship between the US dollar and the precious yellow, could there be a better time to prepare yourself for what is to come than by maximizing you holdings in the best financial insurance available, namely gold bullion.
JMB
(04/02/01; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 51267)
+++++++++++++++++$285.00+++++++++++++++
Just in case I heard Mr. Insana correctly.
Journeyman
(04/02/01; 13:42:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51266)
+++++ $257.55 +++++
The price won't go anywhere - - - till it must. Not quite yet.
Regards,
Journeyman
JMB
(04/02/01; 13:41:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 51265)
Ron Insana @ CNBC
Did I hear Ron say, "It might be time to look at gold for a safe haven."?
Naaaaah, no way! Couldn't have said that...did he?
RossL
(04/02/01; 13:30:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 51264)
+++++ $254.90 +++++
Lease rates have settled into a new range. The paper gold traders will retain control this week as they roll over April contracts to the June expiration.
SEER
(04/02/01; 13:10:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 51263)
Price guess---(I forgot the 30 words or less reasons!)
++++++259.40++++++
All you guys can't be wrong! This is your average guess after I throw out the highest and lowest!
24Wortel
(04/02/01; 13:08:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51262)
Price Guess
+++++ (263.70) +++++
All in a dream, all in a dream- the loading had begun....
24Wortel
(04/02/01; 13:06:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 51261)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
With lowered heads and eyes cast down
Upon their fallen brother
The four remaining horseman await
One more sign from Another:
"Y2K was but a ploy,
To divert away attention
From the real horseman #5
Whose name I will now mention."
And then the visage before them lay,
With a voice they'd never heard.
"I have come at last to join you-
For mine's the final word.
I am feared by many,
Known by few,
I make the shackled free.
Arrogance and power fade
When put in front of me.
The masses are told
To deny my name
And believe instead in fraud.
But those who do the telling,
Deny there is a God.
So stand with me
We can not fail.
I have history as my proof.
So we embark
As horsemen five-
You shall know me now as TRUTH.
You are facts, but facts alone
Cannot the lies defeat
For without TRUTH
Each horseman stands
Alone against deceit.
But next to me a fact is real
TRUTH will make it known
And no denial can make a change
Once the seed is sown."
So away they rode, the horsemen five
Much stronger than before
And as the TRUTH becomes well known
The demand for gold will soar.
Journeyman
(04/02/01; 13:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51260)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
http://www.journeyman.1hwy.com/J-E-AU_GROWTH.html
It was just sun-up when the familiar-looking stranger rode into
camp. He rode in slowly from the east, and to those grizzled
veterans wondering who dared their camp at such an un-godly hour,
it seemed to them he outshown the firey orb rising behind him.
Was that shining armor he was wearing? Or was it something else?
He rode easily in the saddle, apparently untroubled by the
mixture of morning fog and dense black smoke swirling madly about
him. It almost seemed that unnatural and unholy mixture was
trying to obscure the stranger's inner brightness.
"He looks familiar - - - but there have been so many applying
these last few days . . .
"Lucifer! Light Bringer!" said Rising Oil in awe!
Euro turned his back and hissed into the dawn.
"Why are you here?" rumbled Market Meltdown, in open hostility
and repressed fear.
"The reason I always come. I bring knowledge and enlightenment.
It is my fate."
"The Greeks called you Prometheus . . .
"They call me many things. But whatever they name me, they
either fear me or respect me. They ignore me at their peril."
. . . but the Christians call you 'Devil.'"
"Where my light shines, transformation and change follow. It
isn't always pretty. That's why _you_ know me," he said,
glancing meaningfully around the circle. Those who fear change
fear me. The established churchs, those Whores of Babylon, are
no exception. But their True Holy One told them to know my
lance: 'Know The Truth and The Truth shall set you free,' he
taught them."
"Fat lot of good it's doing. POO there tripled his efforts from
$10 per barrel barely a year ago," rumbled MM. "We've even
gotten War back into the game and he's been ranging far and wide.
You know of his exploits of late: Iraq, Algeria, Rowanda, Kosovo,
Serbia, Chechnya. Even now he stalks Macedonia and prepares for
sport in Taiwan, Palestine, and other places known only to a few.
The Contagion, fresh from victories in South America and via a
flight from Tokyo, is once again hectoring Asia. Even weak old
Famine, this time in partnership with old and retired Plague, are
stealing into Europe with foot-in-mouth . . . "
"Yea. Thanks a lot," said Euro derisively. "Get it straight
will you guys. You're not supposed to be attacking me -- the
problem is Strong Dollar. I'm one of the good guys."
Light-Bringer gave Euro a side-long glance. "You just _think_
you're one of the good guys," he said. "Underneath, you're empty
and hollow, just like the rest of your clan. I suppose you may
have your uses for now, but you'll die young along with all your
kin."
Euro gave Lucifer a defiant look, but everyone in the company,
including Euro himself, could now see The Truth in what Lucifer
had said. They all avoided the eye of their doomed and temporary
companion.
"There's Sir Reginald's Law Suit and GATA. There's even this up-
start Energy something-or-other free-lancing his dark and
entropic cape over the American country-side," Contagion
continued the defeatist theme, "Market Meltdown has been
ridiculously successful. The DOW dipped into bear market range,
the S&P the same. NASDAQ has lost more than 60% of it's imagined
value and just finished it's worst quarter in history - - - and
_still_ gold languishes below it's production costs."
"The Truth doesn't come to large numbers suddenly; it only seems
that way in the end. It comes slowly, one person at a time, like
the sun in the morning gradually, almost imperceptibly, stealing
silently into your bed-chamber, finally caressing your eye-lids
and awaking you from your dark and frightening dreams. When
enough waken, only then is the change upon us."
"True enough, but it seems that _nothing_ is happening,"
complained POO.
"Truely it does seem this way. They've been using their new
weapon, Derivative, to suppress the early warnings that normally
arrive as rising prices, but make no mistake the waves are
building and the results will be the worse because of it. Forced
by Derivative to behave as tsunamis - - - which unlike normal
waves don't gain height or power till they near the shore - - -
they are coming together from all points of the compass. You
yourself have identified many of them -- the Energy dude with the
dark cape just crashed ashore. He's just getting started. And
there are many more like him right on his heels. Silver may
crash down on Comex before the blackouts of summer place their
indelible marks in the tome of 2001. Perhaps Copper will drench
the markets like the rains of April.
"Inflation walks openly among us, flaunting his excesses. Bus
rides in Pittsburgh just jumped 17%, baseball tickets 13%, and of
course, the 40% electric-rate increases in California and
doubling of natural gas prices. But the feckless Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Keystone cops that they are, recite incantations,
chanting that inflation is just the ghost of a clown, while all
the while the FED performs endless acts of repo legerdemain,
putting more and more "Strong" dollars into circulation.
"But The Truth is penetrating into the deeper levels. There are a
reported 30 million Americans now enlightened with enough truth
to stop participating in the unlawful IRS income tax scam. You
don't hear this often, but even IRS commissioners and presidents
sometimes let the figures slip. This wave is beginning to be
visible just off shore: See next weekend's USA TODAY. You'll see
The Truth in action, a full-page add challenging the lie of the
Sixteenth Amendment and the Federal Reserve Act. How good will
the "Full Faith and Credit" be when _this_ wave hits the beach?
What will the foreign mercenaries holding Big Float do?
These and many more Small Truths slash and burn, but it is The
Ultimate Truth, The Truth that gold is still by far the best
choice, not only for storage of wealth, but also for
transactional use, just as history has proven time and time
again, that will truly free the price of gold from it's Strong-
Dollar shackles.
"In other currencies however, The Ultimate Truth has already
established a solid beach-head. Ask the Indonesians, the
Koreans, the Brazilians, the Turks - - - even the Australians - -
- about the price of gold.
"Most importantly however, I have a fifth column with tendrils
that reach around the world and into half of all American homes.
The potential of this Fifth Column is little understood as of
yet. It's potential to deliver The Ultimate Truth is yet masked.
E-gold in many forms has begun to be deployed through this Fifth
Column, which will lead, as night follows day, to international
pricing directly in gold units.
"The early users will, for simplicity, get in the habit of
speaking clearly. They will talk not of selling gold for dollars
or yen or marks or euro, but of buying dollars, yen, marks and
euro with gold. They will begin, as of old, to write gold
clauses into their contracts. Gold will thus begin to reclaim
it's True position as the Ultimate Denominator of Transactions,
not thru potentially questionable intermediaries like "dollars",
but directly as grams and ounces of gold.
"At first transactional E-gold will only be used by a trickle, an
elite few. But as Dollar, Euro, Lira, Sucre and their ilk - - -
ah, sorry Euro - - - reveal their true and hollow colors, more
and more people will catch on. The demand for transactional gold
will grow from a trickle to a stream, the stream to a river, the
river to a flood, the flood to a torrent, once again washing away
the fiat detritus from the banks of history. Some economic
historians will undoubtedly refer to this episode as the Great
Money Laundering.
"Pie-in-the-sky", sneered Euro
"You're hoping", responded Lucifer. "Because that would spell the
end of the brief domination by you and your clan." And looking
at Contagion, and Meltdown, "And you fellows would be forced into
early retirement too. It will also lessen War's work-load. But
right now, you have your uses whether we like it or not." And as
an after-thought, "Nothing for you to worry about, Oily One. To
be as good as gold is all you wanted in the first place."
"That's true," said Rising Oil. And then hesitantly, "But I agree
with Euro, pie-in-the-sky."
"Don't be so sure. One of my tacticians has done the
calculations. You can find a "quick & dirty" thumb-nail of them
at the link in the header. At the present rate of expansion, by
the year 2003 the volume of E-GOLD transactions will be the
equivalent of a small country the size of Canada. That's the
stream if not the river - - - and in _just_ two years. And E-
GOLD is only one of the Fully Enlightened. Just for example,
recently Sir James "The Golden" Turk has ventured into the e-gold
business as well. You can see for yourself at:
http://www.goldmoney.com/public/about_goldmoney/management.html
"A few from the dark-side have already begun to feel the cold
sweat of fear trickle down their craven spines: For the first
time just two days ago they raided "Gold-Age," an outpost of E-
GOLD, but doing only transient harm.
"As the Economic Sage Mises laid down many ages ago in the Sacred
Book of Action, while there is no perfect medium of exchange,
there has yet to be a better one than gold. The fiat economic
circumstances of today - - - and the explosive growth of e-gold
- - - are the ultimate proof that Sir Ludwig saw truly and for
all time.
"Thus by the will and DEMAND of the people, enlightened by The
Truth, will the price of gold be set free to seek it's true
level, which will include it's rediscovered use as a
transactional medium. As a result of the spread of The Ultimate
Truth, it's ultimate value will surprise and amaze it's advocates
and humble it's enemies. Just as the "new economy" wasn't new
and the phrase passed quickly into the disuse of embarrassment,
so too the "new fiat experiment" will come to a bad and
ignominious end. Not with a bang, but with a whimper. And
soon." [*1]
An Historical note:
And thusly at the hand of the Fifth Column, the Fifth Horseman,
and the tip of the mighty lance Truth, and with the aid of those
four assembled at dawn and other temporary allies, it did indeed
come to pass just as Lucifer Light-Bringer said that it would.
And it came to pass with much less misery and upheaval than most
thought possible - - -
Regards,
Journeyman
*1. A note to my friends and allies at USAGOLD: Don't get left
in the backwaters - - - become an e-gold portal!!
CoBra(too)
(04/02/01; 12:55:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51259)
@ Christian
Sorry Sir, I'm getting kind'a weary about unsubstantiated attacks; Either substantiate your ridiculous accusations or spare me this kind of drivel.
Sorry for being harsh - cb2
PS: and don't even care if you pick it up on Skolnick's or any other web site.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/01; 12:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 51258)
An aid to international clients of Centennial Precious Metals
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.html
Australia, Canada, and Europe...show your support for USAGOLD by making your next precious metals purchase from Centennial! It is as easy as calling for pizza!!
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/01; 12:47:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51257)
Only FOUR hours remain to earn gold and silver from Centennial Precious Metals!
USAGOLD (03/29/01; 11:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51003)
The New Fifth Horseman: A CALL TO CONTEST. . . .A CALL TO CONTEST
Knights and Ladies of this Table -- one and all. . . . . .
A posting contest of erudition, fact and fancy is in order. One demanding of your greatest posting skills. . . .
We have come a long way on this journey of knowledge and understanding and these contests have contributed mightily toward this end. But no contest has carried the long lasting benefits and continuous interest like the Fifth Horseman competition (April, 1999) which I believe produced some of the best posts ever published at this site. In that competition, we found Rising Oil camped with the other four over that distant hill beyond these castle walls. We knew that hoary visage would wreak havoc. Now, as you know, this Fifth Horseman has torched many a village along the way (Rising from $10 to $30) and driven prices higher everywhere we look. . .and his deadly work is not done yet.
This Horseman, Rising Oil, remains conjoined with Three others, who,though resting quietly near the fire still theaten nevertheless, poised and ready to wreak havoc at the slightest provocation:
The Asian Contagion (now gone international, i.e. Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, et al)
Euro Introduction (We'll add the Strike Force to the currency)
The Stock Market Meltdown (In progress. . .)
But what is this . . .
In a cloud of dust One of the Five now gallops away n'er to be seen again. . . .Y2K -- having done its deadly damage and contributed mightily to the gold demand -- has vanished in the night.
And brings us to what this contest is all about. . . .
We must now once again name a Fifth to replace the One who has slinked away. Undoubtedly there are many candidates to fill this evil role. . . .
Remember: The Horsemen are not what drives Price but what will drive Demand for Gold in the future. . . .Gold, the Protector, the Vessel of our Wealth, the one addition to our portfolios that will be there should any of these Horseman gain the Day. . . . ..........So keep gold Demand in mind when you write your contest entry.
So that is the Contest to be weighed over the course of the next Five days. Who is this Fifth Horseman who can now be seen galloping into the Horsemen's camp over yonder hill -- this Fifth Threat?? And what is the nature of the treat he represents?
The Castle Treasury has authorized issuance of one German 20 Mark gold coin to the winner and one U.S. Silver Eagle each to two runners-up. All entries must be made by Monday, April 2, 2001, 5pm in the Mountains (U.S.)
All Contest posts must be 30 words or more. . .
All Contest posts must be marked as follows:
****** The New Fifth Horseman ***** (Surrounded by stars)
--------------
Along with the Fifth Horseman competition, we will have a price guessing contest on the price of gold on the close for the June contract on Friday April, 6th. The gold will be awarded to the individual who comes closest to that closing price. The Castle Treasury has authorized a one-tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic as the prize. All entries must be made by Monday April 2, 2001, 5pm in the Mountains (U.S.). The post must also indicate in 30 words or Less why you think it will be so. Keep in mind, the contest is on the June contract, not April.
All contest entries must be marked with
+++++ (Price Guess) +++++ (Surrounded by plus signs)
----------------
Also. . .All first time posters will be awarded one U.S. Silver Eagle for breaking the ice. The post however must be a Fifth Horseman entry. Price Guess posts will not count but you may enter that contest also. To win the prize, you must e-mail jill@usagold.com that this is your first post. We will check each claim, so don't try to get one by us.
----------------
We would like to greatly encourage our international lurkers and posters to participate -- and we know there are a great many. We now have an international look and we would like to extend our hand across the waters and welcome all. We do not expect perfect English. . . .only well-honed logic.
So good luck, my friends.
And. . . . .
Let the contest continue.
Rockgrabber
(04/02/01; 12:29:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51256)
Comex Gold?
Has anyone ever taken delivery of a comex GOLD contract? As well I want to open a new furures account one that will never trade gold again (AHHAHA). Does anyone have a futures Account with service that they are actually happy with? Any recomendations will be helpfull. I need to leverage some Euros, and Crude. Thank You.
Christian
(04/02/01; 12:19:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51255)
Bush Administration working for Bush Sr.
Bush made $5trillion for the 2000-to the present 2001 time period on his investments in ther hedge funds. We the people are getting screwed by Bush Senior and his pal Mark Reich. Bush Senior is working for the British Crown and has a joint account with them. Greenspan is now building the real estate bubble in order for the Bush team to cash out on that sometime in 2002. Freddie + Fannie Mac (GSE)? are the new treasury notes. Bush team is building a short position in that. Can someone tell me how that is done? Short the Freddie+Fannie stock?
beesting
(04/02/01; 12:13:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 51254)
Some More Thoughts on the Washington Agreement.
Thanks to Sirs, LeSin & Orca for the Inspiration of this post.
First, lets give a loose definition of Greshams Law: Good money always forces out bad, or not so good, money.(If the people of the world had a choice, Gold would be the money of choice, believe it!)
So, we are right now in a time period where the Euro is attempting to become the currency of choice for all Europeans, and maybe others. Hence a stated 15% Gold backing to try to condition this and the next generation of Euro users that the currency(Euro) is, or soon will be, more sound (valuable) than any other European currency.
Now what if The Washington Agreement was also a way to destroy the Gold holdings in a slow controlled way of any country that in the future may be a threat to the Euro. By threat I mean stronger currency(more valuable) of choice for people in Europe.
If the Euro collapses in value at some point( Like the Turkish lira) wouldn't people who have a collapsing currency rush to put their assets into Gold,,, or a more stable currency?
Hence we have the on going Swiss Gold sales and Bank of England Gold sales. I submit the real reason for the BOE Gold sale is to undermine the value of the Pound, with the intent of joining the European Union at some future point in time.(BIG Financial Players are not restricted on where they choose to live)
To reinforce this thought lets say a major event occured in the world today that caused Europeans to totally lose confidence in the Euro, what would be the percieved most valuable currency's of choice left in Europe? Answer, why the Swiss Franc as it always has been in times of trouble & the Pound.(IMHO one reason they were more valuable was the amount of Gold on hand, the same as the U.S. dollar, right now.)
So if the Gold holdings in Britain and Switzerland and other countrys are deminished to the point where those country's have NO WAY to produce a more sound currency than the Euro all Europeans will be forced to accept the Euro no matter what unknown events in history may be waiting for us.
Now lets say "The Fifth Horseman" is the total collapse in the confidence of the Euro,(causing a flight from the Euro and lowering it's percieved value) we reading these Gold forum pages would buy more Gold but the rest of the world would rush to put their assets into Another form of "Paper" that seemed more valuable, because of 50 + years of financial brainwashing.
So The Washington Agreement may in reality be a very sly way of adding an additional 400 tonnes of Gold yearly to annual demand and at the same time a way to undermine the potential value of any country's "Future" attempt at printing a more valuable currency than the Euro. I might add at the same time totally destroying finacial "Sovereignty" for all those countries who vote to use the Euro in the future.
Thanks for Reading....beesting.
Tree in the Forest
(04/02/01; 12:03:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 51253)
Comex gold
800,000 oz of gold calling for delivery in the April contract with another 8000 contracts still open. Comex gold stocks around 1.3 M oz down about 500,000 oz from Feb contract.
IronHead
(04/02/01; 11:29:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51252)
justamereBear - Japan's Deflation
Thank you for the comments Sir justamereBear. Forum etiquette is not my strong suit, such that I sometimes forget to add "@all" Also I feel (perhaps erroneously?) this is an open station with anyone welcome to throw their two bits in, at any time.
Yes indeed, you were correct in the assumption, that the past three months begat more "serious" interest in my venture proposals. Coinciding with the last downturn of yen to dollar. Not so much a seachange, as Japan has always been the exporter of fastest resort, but a Tsunami is building behind the former current.
Myself living in an area that is undergoing a gradually increasing recesssion/depression (tough to differentiate, when virtually all farms are "for sale") it appears as if the deflationary spiral is hitting our local economy fast. This is what Japan as a country appears deep into now, with real estate leading the tide out, starting years ago. Then comes the contraction in spending, despite the money wheel running overtime - where we are now?
The relay of funds back to the motherland can be delayed a bit, if the motor of export can be run at redline. But, as you stated - how long can that game be played if everyone devalues in a race to the bottom? Maybe it's like the stock market - those who sell first, escape the carnage. (Till there is no more bread and circus for anyone)
What really pulled my string, was how FAST this changeover occured, with my wondering how FAST the changeover will take place here on the good ship lollypop. Can our printing press sustain all world economies adinfinitum?
Maybe the Japanese and other Asian countries will find their populace running to gold, a bit ahead of our stock market escapees. Perhaps with China opening up its citizen's ability to buy gold, the Asians are slightly ahead of the curve. Many centuries of gold understanding in their history. Darn - this would have been a great new fifth horseman.
Anyone else have some thoughts on this?
Salutation,
IronHead
CoBra(too)
(04/02/01; 11:07:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51251)
@ Fredbear
... Seeing Bill's e-mail I tended to think that GATA
may be denounced as traitors of state, while the Clintonistas get away scot-free. Hope not, as it would mean the ultimate degradation and twisting of any truth.
Yes, I'm truly disgusted with this blatant game of manipulating markets, currencies and in particular gold and I've given up putting any "value" to government statistics -
as I'm getting increasingly cynical about reality vs. virtuality. FOA seems to be proven more right with every new day and in particular the paper POG is now truly diverting from reality.
The scary and eerie silence of the Bush Admin after two months in office is deafening - paralyzed in view of the venomuos snake, or looking into the abyss of the totally overblown debt bubble, wich can't ever be averted, without retrenchment and the bearing the consequences of a long lasting recessionary depression? - So the ultimate wisdom of going along with the "true lies" sown by others will eventually sink this admin far deeper than its real responsibilities. It's now or never, Mr. Bush!
- Do you hear the spanner screaming and screeching the works to halt? - or is just golden wheels grinding to pulverization of gold? - no way, 't may be fiat paper to be recycled at the mill.
... ever - cb2
FredBear
(04/02/01; 10:23:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51250)
R Powell (04/02/01; 08:05:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51242)
Trading Mondays
Sir RPowell, I have read of a LWilliams books. In his last one he uses the days of week as one of his primary filters.
I have also done my own study of day-of-week on the S&P and TBond futures markets. Mondays are very good buy days for a day trade. The percentages get worse as the week goes on. I did my studies going back 11 years.
But the best percentages are only a little over 50%.
The end of the month/begiining of the following month has also shown to be a positive long trade in both these markets. But again, it's not enough as some months are better than others.
In LW's last book, which I am now looking at, the Open-to-Close Change in Price By Day looks like this:
Gold BritishPound TBonds S&P500
Monday 53% +8$ 54% +10$ 55% +53$ 50% +45$
Tuesday 52 -3 58 -12 47 -35 55 +56
Wed 53 +4 55 +18 52 +4 51 -27
Thurs 52 +1 55 +11 50 +8 50 -37
Friday 53 -9 56 +13 51 -14 57 +109
The dollar amounts are all BEFORE slippage and commisions. And he does not give the dates of these stats.
Futures trading can be hazardous to your health.
The Day-of-Week of End-of-Month or any other type of pattern should only be used with other qualifiers.
Good luck.
FredBear
(04/02/01; 10:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51249)
EMail I Just Received From GATA
Le Metropole Members,
RUSSIA-GOLD-GATA
Russian producers may join Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
MOSCOW. April 2 (Interfax) - The Russian Union
of Gold Producers is considering joining the Gold
Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), an organization set
up in the United States in 1999 to fight the manipulation
of world gold prices.
Union chairman Valery Braiko told Interfax that
"if union members understand that the committee can raise
the price of gold on the world market, the union will
join it."
GATA's website states that the committee was set
up "to advocate and undertake litigation against
illegal collusion to control the price and supply of
certain financial securities, particularly securities
involving gold." The committee aims to bring the gold
price up to $600 per troy ounce from the current
average of about $260.
[RU EUROPE ASIA EEU EMRG GOL US]
Max Rabbitz
(04/02/01; 09:52:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51248)
Price Guess
++++++257.10++++++
The Rothschilds don't want to pay too much for Gold Fields.
ET
(04/02/01; 09:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51247)
Currencies & Money
http://www.mises.org/fullarticle.asp?control=629&month=30&title=Is+Digital+Currency+Viable%3F&id=31
Is Digital Currency Viable?
by Timothy Terrell
[March 15, 2001]
Distinguishing innovation from chicanery is not always
easy, particularly when a market is developing much
faster than the average consumer will gather information
about it. The market for digital currencies is one of those
markets. Publicized failures of new gold-based currencies
make it more difficult for others who have viable plans for
new systems of exchange. It is appropriate, therefore, to
first examine the rationale behind money before we
invest heavily in plans to create new currencies.
Money is made valuable not so much because of its
substance as because of its acceptability. If I accept a
dollar in exchange for my goods or services, it is because I believe I can
turn around and give that dollar to any merchant for other goods and
services. We all recognize this, implicitly. But the acceptability of dollars did
not appear overnight. And no one wants to be the fool who takes a dollar in
a society where dollars are not yet used as money. So if no one would
accept a dollar without the knowledge that there are already many
merchants who want dollars, why would the first dollar be accepted by
anyone?
One of the twentieth century's greatest economists, Ludwig von Mises,
developed the theory of money regression to explain this conundrum. A
person accepts dollars today, Mises explained, because they were accepted
by other people yesterday. Those people accepted dollars yesterday because
they were accepted the day before. But the regression is not pushed back
infinitely. There is an ultimate explanation for the value of dollars.
The explanation rests in the original nonmonetary use of the good that has
become our money. Gold, for example, was used for ornamentation or
utensils before it became widely used as a medium of exchange. Its wide
use meant that people could be reasonably assured that they could easily
find a buyer, and the buyer could easily discern the quality of the goods. As
barter transactions involving gold became more common, a separate but
important value became attached to gold as a medium of exchange. Even if
those who had no desire for the ornamentation or industrial properties of
gold would accept it in exchange because it could easily be stored and used
later to buy something they wanted. As Mises wrote,
If we trace the purchasing power of money back step by step, we
finally arrive at the point at which the service of the good
concerned as a medium of exchange begins. At this point
yesterday's exchange value is exclusively determined by the
nonmonetary—industrial—demand which is displayed only by those
who want to use this good for other employments than that of a
medium of exchange.[1]
One of the consequences of the regression theorem is that money
must arise from a commodity already in general use. If there is no
nonmonetary use for the good, it will not develop the widespread demand
that must precede its use as a medium of exchange. As Mises's student
Murray Rothbard wrote, money "cannot be created out of thin air by any
sudden ‘social compact’ or edict of government."[2] But once a good
develops a monetary nature, it is there to stay. The nonmonetary uses are
no longer necessary to maintain the good's monetary value, because there
is already a set of prices based on that good.
Advocates of a return to gold-based money would probably agree with much
of what Mises, Rothbard, and others in the Austrian School of economics
have to say. Yet the regression theorem's significance is often forgotten in
the rush to go out and start new currencies that eschew the government's
inflation-prone dollars. F.A. Hayek, a Nobel Prize-winning economist who
would have agreed with Mises on many points, nevertheless failed to grasp
the importance of the historical origin of money. Hayek's "denationalization
of money" scheme would dismantle legal tender laws and allow anyone who
wished to issue his own currency, backed by anything (or nothing).
Competition in money, Hayek believed, would result in the market's choice
of sound (perhaps gold-backed) currencies. Dollars and other fiat money
would fall by the wayside.
The problem with this plan is not that it allows competition with
government-provided money. Hayek and others should certainly have the
freedom to issue currency of any kind. The problem is, as Rothbard pointed
out, that Hayek's new currency tickets are divorced from the necessary
history of nonmonetary uses and will therefore not be accepted. "New
names on tickets," Rothbard wrote, "cannot hope to compete with dollars or
pounds which originated as units of weight of gold or silver and have now
been used for centuries on the market as the currency unit, the medium of
exchange, and the instrument of monetary calculation and
reckoning."[3] Even a bad government currency will have an advantage
against an unfamiliar 100 percent-reserve ticket. Why else would German
citizens continue using the mark in 1923 during rampant hyperinflation
instead of developing alternative currencies?
Some digital currency proponents are advocating variations on Hayek's plan.
If the digital currency plan requires people to trade and quote prices in
terms of something other than the widely used dollar, yen, mark, euro, or
other established currency, Mises's regression theorem would imply that the
plan is doomed. Well before e-money became possible, Rothbard addressed
this problem:
Even the variant on Hayek whereby private citizens or firms issue
gold coins denominated in grams or ounces would not work, and
this is true even though the dollar and other fiat currencies
originated centuries ago as names of units of weight of gold or
silver. Americans have been used to using and reckoning in
"dollars" for two centuries, and they will cling to the dollar for the
foreseeable future. They will simply not shift away from the dollar
to the gold ounce or gram as a currency unit.[4]
What will work is a plan that simply facilitates the exchange of
already-recognized currencies. This would include, for example, an Internet
bank that provides customers an option of denominating their accounts in a
variety of currencies or assets and then guarantees an instantaneous
exchange into one of these currencies at any time when an Internet (or
non-Internet, for that matter) transaction is desired. Debit- and credit-card
based systems have provided international travelers with worldwide
purchasing power for decades. Now Web-based firms are poised to provide
that service, with increased security, for the ballooning world of Internet
commerce. Mises's regression theorem sets a critical limit on how that
service can be provided.
Ultimately, a workable denationalization of money would link the dollar to
some market commodity. The supply of dollars need not be controlled by the
government or printed by the U.S. Mint. It would be enough to define the
dollar at, say, 1/20 an ounce of gold, and let the market handle the printing
and issuance of dollars. As was once the case in the United States, banks
could print bank notes denominated in dollars and backed by the requisite
amount of gold. Until that day, Mises, Rothbard, and others would suggest
that nationally controlled currencies are our only viable option.
_______________
Timothy Terrell, a Mises Institute adjunct scholar, is assistant professor of
economics at Wofford College. He can be contacted at
terrelltd@wofford.edu. This article originally ran on Goldeconomy.com
VanRip
(04/02/01; 09:22:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 51246)
Price Guess
++++++260.20++++++
The trend is your friend. NOT!! Still down. Strong-dollar bears still in control. Could bounce a little by Friday.
Max Rabbitz
(04/02/01; 08:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 51245)
***** Fifth Horseman*******
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
According to the table on page one of the March News & Views, there was an estimated negative 14 metric tons of Forward Sales/Gold Leasing/Option Hedging in 2000. Now higher lease rates imply a shortage of physical gold. I expect there to be growing pressure to force miners into forward selling. In addition to the attempted takeover of Goldfields in South Africa by AngloGold (Rothschilds) there is also TVX Gold which it is now feared is about to fall into the hands of their bullion banker creditors. Should these events occur a new flood of forward sold gold is likely to depress gold markets for perhaps another year.
By then other mines would be ready for capitulation. I think this is their plan. Few if any mines will survive. Of course this forward sold gold is still in the ground and requires lending from above ground stocks to satisfy real market demand. This requires confidence that the financial and economic system will survive and the gold will eventually be mined. It is confidence alone that holds this system up. A confidence game, as Sir Powell posted yesterday.
The Fifth Horseman that will destroy this confidence game is the implosion of the Great U.S. Credit Bubble. It is of historic proportions and continuing to expand. The following 5 points are from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin last Friday (see above link).
1) The average credit card debt per household now amounts to some $8,000. Altogether, consumer debt is at a record high, totaling $1.52 trillion.
2) It appears the first quarter experienced one of the strongest periods of debt issuance in history, with a staggering $223 billion of new debt coming to market in the U.S.
3) March saw $11.5 billion of home equity loan securitizations compared to about $2 billion during February. After three months, we are on record pace with $84 billion of asset-backs issued. This is compared to $290 billion issued for all of year-2000.
4) Broad money supply (M3) expanded by $10 billion last week, continuing the historic monetary expansion that has seen broad money expand at a 14% rate over the past three months.
5) "Corporate credit quality fell for the 12th straight quarter, the longest losing streak in a decade, because the U.S. economy is slowing, corporate profits are eroding and companies are taking on too much debt, Moody's Investors Service said this week. Not since 1988 through 1993, which encompassed the last recession and included 19 consecutive down quarters, has corporate credit quality headed south for so long."
The Fifth Horseman will ride as earnings of U.S. companies decline from overcapacity, higher energy costs, increasing import competition, and stock option and accounting irregularities catching up. When future earnings are perceived to be insufficient to service debts, defaults will appear imminent and confidence will evaporate. Interest rates will rise to cover the risk. Simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets will leave no where to run.....but gold. When stock markets and commodity exchanges take a Holiday or take measures to deter "speculators" (see Palladium) even surviving miners may be tied up. Of course MK's phone and Internet connections will also be a bit tied up.
SEER
(04/02/01; 08:43:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51244)
Price guess and corrected Fifth Horseman entry
++++++259.40++++++
******The New Fifth Horseman******
The real Fifth Horseman will spur Demand to the level of Panic Buying! Now, think about whatever has brought you to buy and buy and then buy more! That only happens when the bargains are so great that you will buy without thinking, you will buy without hesitation, you will buy even if you don't need the item offered! If they offered you a painting by Rembrandt for $50, you would go into panic buy mode! If they offered you the original copy of the U. S. Declaration of Independence for $50 you wouldn't bat an eye nor wait a second! You would just buy on the spot, allowing that any possible fakery could be checked out after the purchase!
It is the same way with gold! The Fifth Horseman will ride in as the Declining Paper Price, a price so low that Demand runs rampant, a price so low that the ugliest Bear in the market will place his order to Buy! It will be a price so low that no hedge fund can resist the temptation to Buy, and Buy Big! Even the mines will buy, and buy, and buy, to the limit of their treasury!
Remember when silver went to $50 an ounce? People were selling their rings, their silverware, and their trophies! People were ready to melt down their antiques, their heirlooms, their amulets, their inlaid teeth and their silver chalices! It was a riot of selling!
With gold it will be the complete reverse, a buying panic! No one will be able to place his order soon enough! Every player will be on the telephone, seeking to be first in line at the order desk! People with high contacts will be seeking to use their influence to get to the head of the line. They will pay richly just to be put on the buyers' list! There will be threats and promises, all with the same purpose! In a buying panic it is every man for himself, devil take the hindmost, reach for the sky and buy, buy, buy!
Behold the Fifth Horseman, the Declining Paper Price! He rides with money bag in hand, holding it close to his vest, as he seeks the Golden Fleece, when the price is right!
JMB
(04/02/01; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51243)
#51241
Excellent, imo.
R Powell
(04/02/01; 08:05:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51242)
First and last Mondays of the month
A poster named Moutaingold at the neighboring G-E castle once said that he has found analyst Larry Williams theory of first and last Mondays being positive gains days on the stock exchanges to be correct. Both Mondays were up days last month. Moutaingold had checked this over a long period of time and stated that the corrolation was strong enough so that he trades accordingly.
He likes to short term trade the QQQ. We'll see if the theory holds true again today.??
I'm wondering if it will still hold true in a downtrending market as it apparently did during the past years' time that Moutaingold backchecked. Time will tell.
Rich
R Powell
(04/02/01; 07:36:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51241)
SL+TT
In the construction industry there is a saying, "The only guy who never makes a mistake is the one standing in the unemployment line."
I've never seen anyone let go (fired) for doing something wrong. We fire people for not showing up and for not producing (working). I also believe IMHO that learning is achieved by doing. Doing for oneself involves errors which beget learning.
Knowledge is that which is left when what we have learned has been forgotten. (IBD)
Rich
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(04/02/01; 06:50:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 51240)
Randy, and ALL
Randy-I have always considered my word to be golden. Yet I see that I have not lived up to it by pursuing a dialogue with a certain individual. For that failing I apologize. I also wish you to remove my posting privilege from the forum, as I went back on my word. I will be content to participate as a lurker. You will find my armor and lance at the castle gate. Thanks again for your efforts towards maintaining this forum.
ALL-I value your wisdom. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/01; 06:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51239)
***********The New Fifth Horseman***************
*********************************************
*********The New Fifth Horseman************
*********************************************
Under the cover of darkness, in the land called Confusion, where anxieties were running high, rode in the fifth horseman. ""My sons, you have done well, you make me proud but we still have more to do."" The sons were so happy to see their father, but they were tired from their previous endeavors and wanted to rest. The sons TSMM, EI, AC and RO, knew that their father would not let this be for long. The sons asked ""what would you like us to do now?"" The father replied ""I’'ll tell you when the time is right. IT WILL BE SOON"". As the fire dwindled down he said ""sleep now, we will talk some more tomorrow.""The sons had to have respect for their father, he was most wise, most patient, most stealthy, but also most demanding. He was the alpha male wolf so to speak. The one who will watch the herd and look for that tell tale limp, and the perfect time to strike..
The next morning, he set the sons off on their daily chores while he made the coffee. They would report to him when they got back. ""Everyone got their coffee?"" he said and they all responded to the affirmative. ""Well, TSMM how’'s the DOW and the DUCK doing?"" ""They are going down as planned"" was the response. ""Good, well AC, how’'s Asia?"" ""Great, their even giving their money away now."" ""Excellent, well EI is the Euro one line yet?"" ""It will be in January"" ""Good we still need a little more time anyway."" ""Well RO, my favorite son, how are the oil prices?"" "" It’'s going just as planned the prices arn’'t too high YET because that would make the infidels suspicious. So, I did the next best, I turned the valve two turns closed."" ""Great, Excellent! I love it when a plan comes together!"" Tonight around the campfire, I put all of the pieces of the plan together for you.
The fire was in full blaze crackling and popping, and the sun was down. The reflection of the fire on their eager faces, awaiting the details of the plan, gave them a demonic appearance. ""Father please tell us now!!!"" So the fifth, stood in front of his children, looking like the conductor of a quartet, and told the plan.
""Ultimately for gold to go up, we have to devalue the $US, and get it off that global reserve status. The first step that TSMM is accomplishing is to change the PERCEPTION that stocks are ""as good as gold"". He is doing a fine job at that but it takes time, and we need this time for EI’'s part of the plan to completely unfold. We have to wait for the Euro to become a real physical currency, one that jingles, rather than just digital data. This will start to psychologically unite the Europeans. Then Russia joins the EU. The EU should be quite self sufficient, in time just trading amongst themselves and ME. You see, we will be just fine driving Mercedes instead of Cadillacs. We make a trade deal with EU, oil and ng at bargain prices for euros or gold, and good prices for goods and services that we need. We open the taps to Europe and close the valves to the US. Since the US only produces about 40% of their consumption, their industry will shrink by 60%. Sixty % less industry equals 60% less jobs. There will be massive unemployment, power outages, and debt default. Their credit bubble will implode, as well as derivative defaults. Their banking system will be destroyed. As they try to recover in time, our oil will be extremely expensive for them, since their money is worthless and we demand payment in gold or Euros. The US imports go up do to no productivity there, at the same time Europe is self sufficient.US industrial base will be devastated, due to no electricity, no oil, no ng, therefore no growth, no exports. The US economy will come to a screeching halt. All of the $US will come home to live on Greenspan’'s desk. That will be when, he will wish he had an Aladin’'s magic lamp to call upon the ""genie greenie"".
GOLD WILL RULE, and guess who owns the gold? ...M.E.
May your cups overflow,
I'm trying for my first,
SOTG
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/01; 06:30:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51238)
Repost Reason
Dear Sir's & m'Ladies,
Sorry about the repost but I forgot to include the word NEW in the contest.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/01; 06:25:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 51237)
++++++++++++(PRICE GUESS)++++++++++
++++++++++++++++(253.755)++++++++++++++++
There is still a fair bit of time before the market crashes or bottoms out this will give the players more time to continue playing the game we know so well.
SOTG
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/01; 06:15:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 51236)
************** THE FIFTH HORSEMAN**********************
*********************************************
*********THE FIFTH HORSEMAN************
*********************************************
Under the cover of darkness, in the land called Confusion, where anxieties were running high, rode in the fifth horseman. "My sons, you have done well, you make me proud but we still have more to do." The sons were so happy to see their father, but they were tired from their previous endeavors and wanted to rest. The sons TSMM, EI, AC and RO, knew that their father would not let this be for long. The sons asked "what would you like us to do now?" The father replied "I'll tell you when the time is right. IT WILL BE SOON". As the fire dwindled down he said "sleep now, we will talk some more tomorrow."The sons had to have respect for their father, he was most wise, most patient, most stealthy, but also most demanding. He was the alpha male wolf so to speak. The one who will watch the herd and look for that tell tale limp, and the perfect time to strike..
The next morning, he set the sons off on their daily chores while he made the coffee. They would report to him when they got back. "Everyone got their coffee?" he said and they all responded to the affirmative. "Well, TSMM how's the DOW and the DUCK doing?" "They are going down as planned" was the response. "Good, well AC, how's Asia?" "Great, their even giving their money away now." "Excellent, well EI is the Euro one line yet?" "It will be in January" "Good we still need a little more time anyway." "Well RO, my favorite son, how are the oil prices?" " It's going just as planned the prices arn't too high YET because that would make the infidels suspicious. So, I did the next best, I turned the valve two turns closed." "Great, Excellent! I love it when a plan comes together!" Tonight around the campfire, I put all of the pieces of the plan together for you.
The fire was in full blaze crackling and popping, and the sun was down. The reflection of the fire on their eager faces, awaiting the details of the plan, gave them a demonic appearance. "Father please tell us now!!!" So the fifth, stood in front of his children, looking like the conductor of a quartet, and told the plan.
"Ultimately for gold to go up, we have to devalue the $US, and get it off that global reserve status. The first step that TSMM is accomplishing is to change the PERCEPTION that stocks are "as good as gold". He is doing a fine job at that but it takes time, and we need this time for EI's part of the plan to completely unfold. We have to wait for the Euro to become a real physical currency, one that jingles, rather than just digital data. This will start to psychologically unite the Europeans. Then Russia joins the EU. The EU should be quite self sufficient, in time just trading amongst themselves and ME. You see, we will be just fine driving Mercedes instead of Cadillacs. We make a trade deal with EU, oil and ng at bargain prices for euros or gold, and good prices for goods and services that we need. We open the taps to Europe and close the valves to the US. Since the US only produces about 40% of their consumption, their industry will shrink by 60%. Sixty % less industry equals 60% less jobs. There will be massive unemployment, power outages, and debt default. Their credit bubble will implode, as well as derivative defaults. Their banking system will be destroyed. As they try to recover in time, our oil will be extremely expensive for them, since their money is worthless and we demand payment in gold or Euros. The US imports go up do to no productivity there, at the same time Europe is self sufficient.US industrial base will be devastated, due to no electricity, no oil, no ng, therefore no growth, no exports. The US economy will come to a screeching halt. All of the $US will come home to live on Greenspan's desk. That will be when, he will wish he had an Aladin's magic lamp to call upon the "genie greenie".
GOLD WILL RULE, and guess who owns the gold? ...M.E.
May your cups overflow,
I'm trying for my first.
SOTG
LeSin
(04/02/01; 05:59:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 51235)
Washington Agreement Questioned by ORCA at GE Forum
Thanks You Orca for your Thoughts & Questions "S"
Washinton Agreement ?
(Orca) Apr 01, 11:40
What were the factors that prompted the Washington Agreement? Aren't we now once again at about the same point?
Greenspan had declared that central banks stand ready to use their gold to control its price. The Washington agreement was a counterstatement to that which put limits in place.
So what's happened over the last 18 months? Gold has come back down to about the same street value as in Sept 1999. Lease rates are rising, although they have fallen back some as of now, but with a trend that wants to go higher. About 700 additional tonnes has been taken out of the European Central banks since that time That's in additional to the unknown quantity removed over the last 10 or 15 years. If the going rate has been in the 400 tonnes per year range, then at least 6000 tonnes is gone from the stated reserves of approx. 13000 tonnes in Europe.
So… has the direction changed? It appears not to have changed. Has the pace changed? Nope. Has the agreement had the desired effect or any affect at all? Well, what effect was it trying to achieve? If was to stop the bleeding, it appears it has not. If it was meant to restore the value to the asset, it has not. If it was to shore up the Euro, it has not. If is was meant to signal the US dealers and England to get out of the ‘manage gold out of existence’ game, it has not.
Was the agreement the statement that is the first of many that play out a strategy to slowly, but inexorably remove all the gold from their coffers over the next 10 – 15 years? In effect, a managed blowout. Yes there will be pain but if we do this together and in managed fashion, no one will panic; the plan has been defined; the price will slowly drop; the supply lines will slowly shut down; and 10 years from now… Presto! NO MORE GOLD. Now, they can build the prefect currency and method of control.
If that is not the plan, then what is it? If they are caught in this massive dilemma as so clearly stated by Veneruso, Chapman, Hamilton, Murphy, etc, then what was is the exit plan?
Either something is very wrong with the outcome of the Washington Agreement, or the plan is to manage gold to nothing over the next decade.
Washington Agreement
(Orca) Apr 02, 02:23
I see that the opportunity for the Washington agreement to be scrapped is a possibility. Earler today I posted what I believed were some important issues to consider, for us, but much more importantly for the signators to wth WA.
The most important factor is that the WA allows for no exit plan. It simplistically allows for sales of 400 tonnes per year, makes no statement as to how previous loans (sales) were to be repaid, does not point to a follow on plan, and by definition, (one 5 year plan followed by another, followed by another) will ensure the total eleimination af all the gold held in the European vaults.
It is easily tabulated (Veneruso) that probabably half of the gold in these European vaults has already been sold. I believe that the WA was a public relations event meant to calm down those that get excited about these things, and put a soother in our mouth. Secondly, this buys time (perhaps no more than three or four years) but enough to get the current crop of CB execs off the hook, and as the old saying goes.. pass the 'challange' on to the next guy.
So, exit strategy!. This was nothing more than a poorly thought out plan that has failed. These CB's are marching their brood over the cliff, and to be honest (if the WA was their best shot) are finished.
So what's the hope for gold? Probably pretty good. But only after its all gone frm the CB's as they can then no longer control it. Sweet irony to say the least. As the financial masinations continue, people will return to something of value.
Whats the final outcome to be? The WA was meant to soothe Europeans in to reassuring them that all was OK in CB land. Or perhaps it was meant to be the whistling that the CB's utter as they pass through the deep dark forest of danger. Perhaps it will scare away the ghosts. But by any calculation, it is not working. They are in the grips of the claws of the JP Morgans, Goldman Sachs etc. Real balls will be needed to break this bull trap. Much more than is being demonstrated today
US_Army(RET)
(04/02/01; 05:14:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 51234)
Significant Omission (?)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA20E3EB8%2D067E%2D4F71%2DA94D%2D548505F052B0%7D&siteid=mktw
The sound of "panic" is getting louder.
Out of long term habit, one of my first checks of reading the world happenings every AM, is viewing CBS Marketwatch (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/) --- after the BBC, Jerusalem Post and Arabic News (just to get a rounded "perspective" of current "untruths").
Now this morning MW has a really interesting item, especially to those of us that may view reality from a little different angle then most. Is in the "commentary" section, SHAWN LANGLOIS (No foolin' around). - More bang for your investment buck 10 suggested destinations for added financial security
--------------
First Para's:
"...But fret not. The stock market isn't the only place to make or preserve your fortune, and now that the bears are feasting on Wall Street, it might be time to financially reinvent yourself.
We here at CBS.MarketWatch.com feel it our duty to highlight alternate fiscal choices. So on this first day of April we offer 10 "safer" places to re-direct your stock market money:..."
-----------------
Anyone notice a significant omission in the presented options besides me? --- Wonder why??? Ummmm,
Again with Respect,
Black Blade
(04/02/01; 04:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51233)
Power woes put nuclear in new light
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/trib/20010401/lo/power_woes_put_nuclear_in_new_light_1.html
Snippit:
The nuclear industry, encouraged by the Bush administration, is beginning to see new life in its once-moribund corner of the world. Capitalizing on high natural gas prices, fears about California's energy problems and what they say are technological improvements, utilities such as Chicago-based Exelon Corp. (NYSE:EXC) are taking steps once thought inconceivable to expand the use of nuclear power.
Black Blade: When the chips are down, even nuclear becomes "fashionable." Can you smell the desperation?
Black Blade
(04/02/01; 03:54:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51232)
Early Snow Melt Adds to Power Woes
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/03/31/MN88930.DTL
Snippit:
Beautiful spring weather has started to melt the winter snowpack, dimming hopes that California's energy grid will get much help from hydroelectric power this summer. "This is a blow from Mother Nature," said Christy Dennis, a spokeswoman for the Pacific Gas and Electric Co.
John Harrison, a spokesman for the Northwest Power Planning Council, said the situation in the Northwest, which has had the driest winter in years, meant California could expect little help from the north. "It's unlikely there will be any power to ship south," he said.
Black Blade: This adds a new wrinkle to an already bad energy situation. Remember that California alone is the World's 6th largest economy.
Black Blade
(04/02/01; 03:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51231)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Old Fifth Horseman "Y2K" has passed on without much visible damage. This may have been because of planning and a concerted effort to avoid a potential disaster. It is true that there were several "problems" attributed to the date sensitive SCADA chips, but nothing that could be perceived as apocalyptic in nature. Y2K was a foreseen event in the making with a definite identifiable deadline. We are not so lucky with the other "Horsemen" and certainly not with the "New Fifth Horseman."
ENERGY AND THE NEW ECONOMY
The "New Fifth Horseman" has already come to the forefront and has begun to effect the economy. The "New Fifth Horseman" is the "Energy Crisis." It would be easy to say that "Rising Oil" is the same, however, although the "Rising Oil Horseman" is closely related to the "Energy Crisis," The "Energy Crisis" encompasses many other components as well. We have heard from several so-called experts that energy is no longer important to the economy since we now have entered in the age of the "New Economy." Nothing could be further from the truth. The "New Economy" is one that relies heavily on the internet, computers, telecommunications, etc. The "New Economy" voraciously devours incredible amounts of energy. It is estimated that a new server farm is built every week. These energy farms consume as much energy as some small US cities. The "New Economy" that the so-called experts said was supposed to save energy is actually draining energy at a rate much faster than can be replaced. The biggest of these farms use a whopping 120 megawatts around the clock, equal to the energy use of 120,000 homes and enough to merit a new mid-sized plant to serve each facility.
Every postwar recession has been preceded by an "Energy Crisis." The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo resulted in high gasoline prices and rationing. Price controls were enacted and the problem only became more critical. The oil crisis of 1979 threw the US into recession once again. The current "Energy Crisis" has sparked the cry of recession in the financial media. An "Energy Crisis" is being recognized by some well informed students of the economy and a growing number of politicians and they well know that the result will likely be an inflationary recession that will surpass the "Energy Crises" of the past.
The Old and New economy debate can be misleading. The future economy is likely to blend traditional business (Old Economy) with new developments and inventions (New Economy). The question is where does petroleum fit into this future economy? It is only obvious to even the most causal observer that energy and petrochemical use will grow several fold because they are so embedded in our economic life and power the engine of economic growth. Light Sweet Crude Oil has rebounded from a low of about $10.00/bbl to recently over $38.00/bbl. The higher costs of petroleum have resulted in higher transportation costs, and earnings warnings by manufacturers.
FINITE OIL
It is likely that all the major oil basins or provinces have been found and the world is in effect, truly running out of oil. At least out of easily exploited cheap conventional oil. The peak year for oil discoveries in the US was in 1930, and the peak for worldwide oil discoveries was in 1962. Discovery rates have steadily fallen since. Most increases in oil production since then have come from technological advances that were applied to already discovered oil fields. 3-D Seismic and horizontal drilling techniques improved oil recovery in known fields, but have not resulted in any significant discoveries of major fields.
Energy is derived from many sources and not just oil. Energy drives the US economy and we are falling behind in exploration and production of cheap energy. In fact the days of cheap energy are gone forever. Due to the need for other sources of energy and environmental regulations there has been a shift toward clean burning natural gas. Here we are experiencing higher costs and short supply as well.
NATURAL GAS
Due to environmental concerns there has been a shift toward Natural Gas fired power plants. Here we have a severe shortage as well. In the US. Natural gas prices have risen from $2.85 Mbtu earlier this year to a recent $5.40 Mbtu. Natural gas is used to generate about 25 percent of the nation's electricity but it is also in short supply, as a result of several years of mild winters, low demand, and flagging drilling activity. About 95% of all new power plants are natural gas fired. Demand is rising as Natural Gas is a "clean" fuel for electric power generation. The Gas Research Institute and the National Petroleum Council (NPC) state that demand will continue to increase at the rate of 32 TCF over the next 25 to 30 years. Security analysts at Dan Rauscher Wessels Inc. project that more than 275 new natural gas-fired power plants are planned to begin operation by 2006 and consume about 8.5 TCF/year. In short - there simply isn't going to be enough production to feed these power plants.
THE EMERGING ENERGY CRISIS
The Northwest Power Planning Council is an agency that includes the states Idaho, Oregon, Montana and Washington. They report that demand for electricity has grown 24 percent in the past decade while new generation has grown only 4 percent. When the state of California is factored in, the gap between supply and demand is much greater. The "Energy Crisis" situation is also becoming dangerously acute on the east coast of the US as well. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham recently stated that the situation is critical and that New England may be subject to rolling blackouts as early as this summer. As each new area is affected, Wall Street investors become more shaken and lose confidence in the economy. Add to this the retirement of older facilities of other "dirty" fuels and the numerous environmental regulations soon due to go into effect and you get the "big picture."
LACK OF PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION
Another major problem that is clearly pointed out in the March 2001 issue of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) "Explorer" is that of staffing. There is an acute shortage of skilled and experienced geophysicists. The retirement of staff and loss of staff during the days of low petroleum prices has resulted in a severe shortage of competent personnel. It should be noted that the schools do not graduate many skilled individuals in the geosciences as most students do not wish to enter into an unstable career. Those days are about to change however. In spite of the unintelligible mumblings of environmentalists, energy demand necessitates an aggressive campaign to discover more sources of energy. Even nuclear power could become fashionable again. The petroleum industry has moved on to recruit math and physics majors at the nation's educational institutions. The problem is that the intense competition with a multitude of industries such as technology and teaching for example make recruitment in what is perceived as an unstable industry as a "tough sell." It should also be noted that many labor positions in the petroleum industry are not the best paid and are physically demanding. Experienced people have left and are not coming back, and younger potential workers are more inclined to choose easier work for comparable pay.
The shortage of drill rigs continues to plague the industry as well. It is estimated that at most there will be about 1250 drill rigs available for exploration by next summer. Currently there are about 1150 (about 950 drilling for natural gas). Most manufacturers of drill rigs either went out of business or into other pursuits during the era of low petroleum prices. They are reluctant to get back in while they are still licking their wounds. Some exploration and production companies are scavenging the junkyards for old rigs and parts in order to increase production. As a result, natural gas prices are destined to rise. It should be noted that natural gas storage is at a record low and the lack of permitting to construct new natural gas pipelines has also had a severe impact.
HYDROELECTRIC POWER
Adding to the Northwest's energy worries is a severe drought, shrinking reservoirs behind some of the World's biggest hydroelectric dams to their lowest levels in 25 years and cutting deeply into available supplies. During years with normal rainfall, Hydro-power accounts for about 70 percent of Washington state's electricity. During the summer months the Northwest supplies California with a substantial amount of power. This summer it appears that California will have to look elsewhere. Recently hydro-geologists for the state of California announced that the snowpack levels in the Sierra's are only at 60% of normal. A disaster is in the making.
COAL
Coal is an important source of power in the US. Coal is considered a "dirty" fuel. Environmental regulations require that sulfur emissions be reduced in order to reduce the effects of acid rain. The largest source of low sulfur coal comes from the western US. The state of Wyoming supplies a major portion of the US low-sulfur coal requirements. A potentially large source of low-sulfur coal is in the recently created Escalante Staircase National Monument in southern Utah. This source is now off-limits. The major problem for coal as a source of power is that when power plants use up their "carbon credits" they must either shutdown for the rest of the year or purchase new "carbon credits" on the open market. Therefore coal as a major source of fuel for power going forward could be limited.
NUCLEAR
There's a lot of political and environmental opposition to nuclear energy. The Chernobyl and Three Mile Island incidents have frightened many citizens about the potential for a disaster. Nuclear power could go a long way toward supplying much of the US energy needs. It can supply clean energy at a competitive cost. However, there have been no new permits for nuclear power plants in over 25 years. Recently both Vice President Dick Cheney and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham have suggested that nuclear power should be a consideration.
FAILING ELECTRICAL GRID
Add to this the widespread public opposition to placing building electrical power plants anywhere near their neighborhood, and there were not many incentives for power plant construction. The "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY) mentality has also forced political leaders to also oppose construction. In the Western states it has been 10 years since a major power plant was brought on line. Now there is a rush to build power plants. Virtually all new planned power plants are natural gas fired.
Years of neglect have resulted in an aging power grid. There is simply not enough infrastructure to transmit power for the burgeoning "New Economy." The 203,600-mile high voltage network linking power plants to neighborhood distribution lines are falling into disrepair. There have been few changes in 50 years. Electrical power distribution now travels ever greater distances to reach more lucrative markets. This is putting a huge strain on the system, leading to bottlenecks that often create shortages rather than ease them. Upgrades are still uneconomic because the transmission rates grid operators can charge are still tightly regulated, leaving them little financial incentive to invest in their aging lines.
CONCLUSION
The era of "Cheap Energy" is over. The cost of power will increase and the costs will be passed on to the consumer resulting in inflation and tightly squeezed profit margins for US businesses. The "New Economy" will consume ever greater amounts of energy. The ability to produce energy is hampered by an array to regulations, lack of personnel and equipment, and a failing distribution infrastructure. In short, we are in an "Energy Crisis" and it will get much worse. The "New Fifth Horseman" is really not so new, but is now becoming recognized as a real threat to the US economy. As in the past, gold will serve as a "lifeboat" to help the prepared to navigate these dangerous waters. Gold rose in value during economic uncertainty while other "investments" dragged down the unprepared into the depths of despair.
- Black Blade
justamereBear
(04/02/01; 03:19:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51230)
SLaTT PandaGold Enough Already
SLaTT
This is to much. I have only had one occassion to communicate with you. I will not again.
Pandagold
Stop moaning, man, and get on with it. There is this little thing on the right of your screen that makes the words go by so fast you cannot read them.
If I understand the rules of the forum, religion is NOT an appropriate subject.
j'Bear
Tannehill
(04/02/01; 02:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51229)
Contests
Sorry to ride in so late, must be the daylight savings time change, never can get the hang of it.
****** The New Fifth Horseman ***** (Surrounded by stars)
--------------
A lean, gaunt stranger with sunken eyes appeared suddenly at the campfire, he spit on your hand. I didn't come in the sunshine, because I wanted to slip up on you fellows without your knowing it. But your forefathers have known me. You have hear the "wise ones" predict this time it is different, well I tell you --- it is no different from any other greedy bubble ever produced by mankind, there will be no harmony. Even though you clamor for me, I am not available. I am Scaracity, the fifth horseman, and will not be available to you at any cost, this will echo in your ears. Verily, verily I say unto you, you have had your seven fat years leading to the apex, now there will be seven lean years. You dared believe that the old rule of scaricity and abundance did not apply to technology, that it would be buenaventura forever. hah! You have sown the virtual world of nothingness on your computers, and now you will be left to try and eat the unleaven virtual bread. You can not live in a virtual house, you are not warmed by a virtual fire. You have taken good and glorious things provided to you and produced only virtual products from it. You have encapsulated vast quantities of gold and silver in your electronic gadets, never to be recovered. Thus mortal men are doomed to toil underground to provide the greedy with the shiny metals of wealth. Those that have created this bubble have stood on the shoulder of giants. The knowledge was there, but did anyone ask should we do this? The world wants more and more physical things and you let you leaders give you those virtual derivatives, no longer I say, I demand physical and there is not enough to go around. Scarcity will become abundant, ha ha ha.....up is down, right is wrong, the world is topsy-turvey, there is a newmont rising, I read minds and play god, you will bow to Scaracity.
+++++ (Price Guess) +++++
+++++($256.60)+++++
Why this price, because sometimes it goes up, sometimes it goes down and sometimes it is just right, goldielocks made me say that.
That's all from Tannehill
justamereBear
(04/02/01; 02:28:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51228)
Iron Head
Excuse me, since the message was not directed at me, but during the last couple to three months, there seems to be a national concensus among the business people that the only way to pull Japan out of this mess they are, and have been in for over 10 years, is to export. (very Japanese that concensus) I would bet that you have not been in SERIOUS discussion with them for more than 3 months. (I had guests from Japan who left about a week and a half ago.)
On balance, I think that;
-Opportunity knocks for you.
-That is probably the best solution for the Japanese. (providing the rest of the world does not follow, which I think it will)
(I have a greater than usual interest in Japan. My second wife was a Japanese I met in Tokyo, just prior to the meltdown.) (There were only 2 :-) )
j'Bear
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/01; 02:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51227)
"Round Table or Kindergarten Court?"
Sir Goldfly,
Excellent post #51217...I would have suggested it for the HOF but GOLD was not the topic.
The King must be on leave from the castle, for he would not allow the tables and the chairs to be overturned and broken.
I am sure that he would suggest for the "KIDS" to exchange emails and joust outside of the court.
I enjoy both of their inputs and would miss their posts. Both are equally at fault for keeping this up!!!, and I do not care who started it first. But, If the King was to exile one, he in all fairness would have to exile both.
This does not have to happen. Mabey the king could ask them to GROW UP!
This way all can benifit from both of their wisdoms and points of view.
May your cup overflow,
SOTG
Mr Gresham
(04/02/01; 02:07:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 51226)
Contests
Those contest entries are amazing! It really brings out the best in all regulars, as well as the thrill I get seeing de-lurkers join in, with some great thoughts and writing, too. Thanks for giving them to us; best reads I've had this weekend.
Pandagold
(04/02/01; 02:04:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51225)
Sierra Madre
Ciao! Nothing to do with heat. You say things are going to get interesting soon. To me, they ARE interesting NOW!
This is my message I leave you with.
Don't get side tracked by details, especially ones based on statistics (you know what Mark Twain and others have said about those.) Government published figures, and media hype have as much crediblity as a Clinton statement on oath.
Nothing, repeat NOTHING in the financial world is ever what it seems.
Again - THINGS ARE INTERESTING NOW!
And it is a good time to make money once you see the light, as MANY are now doing, who is moving things, and where THEY are moving things.
The TRUTH becomes more evident every day, if you keep your eyes open and free from the dust they throw in them
CIAO again
IronHead
(04/02/01; 01:12:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 51224)
Randy and ORO - A Question For Two Of The Best Bookends
Good Sirs - If either of you would care to tackle this one, it could be of possible interest.
Recent (past 4-5 days) discussions with family, friends, and business associates in Japan, have yielded an interesting, (albeit not expected by me) commentary that a heavy deflationary environment is exploding throughout the Japanese economy.
As I'm in the process of establishing a representative relationship with numerous Japanese companies to broker both product and processes here in the US, the overwhelming positive response has had me a bit baffled. The recent devaluation of the yen is probably a contributing factor, but from general reaction I'm getting, it is the drastic deflation of price and profit for these companies, that has them very eager to enter our American markets.
With the inumerable variables associated with Japan's past 11 years since the bubble popped - what are your opinions of how and why this is suddenly taking place? Assuming it is - (as you've all probably gathered, I'm an anectdotal thinker at best, with few scholastic resources for determining what is happening within other's dialectic realm).
If the deflationary spiral is occuring in Japan, might we in the Americas be poised to follow, or divert? The forum's age old inflation vs. deflation question - taking place in real time over there.
Footnote to Sir Oro and All: Your recent expressions of disdain for things of a hierarchic or monarchial nature, left me thinking perhaps my use of "Sir" in addressing others was an affirmation or agreement with the King's court of yore and today. That is not my intention at all. It emanates from my interaction with Asian people, particularly Japanese, where the use of "san" is added when addressing anyone, as a sign of respect. Trying to place others before oneself is the watchword, thus the use of sir or lady, rather than san. How do you like Orosan?
If you were to know me, you would find my adherence to the King's edict, to be on the order of some other independent thinkers here, such as Sirs HBM and Journeyman, (whom I admire greatly).
Salutations,
IronHead
Gandalf the White
(04/02/01; 01:02:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51223)
Sir RossL and SIR $hifty --- Re: PONZI chart
Periodic Ponzi Update PPU
Nasdaq 1,840.26 + Dow 9878.78 = 11,719.04 divide by 2 = 5859.52 Ponzi
Up 142.79 from last week.
*****Looks as if the Hobbits were close in the design level of the First Sublevel for the PONZI --- Keep those digging tools handy as they will be needed again soon.
<;-)
Sierra Madre
(04/02/01; 00:45:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 51222)
Ciao, Panda!
Sorry to see you go! You had some interesting things to say and a sophisticated point of view.
But as ole Harry S. Truman said, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen."
Here's hoping you change your mind. Things are going to get real interesting very soon.
Sierra
Goldfly
(04/02/01; 00:00:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51221)
Pandagold
Not my intent to chase you off, just to throw cold water on a thread that is little more than a cat fight.
It should be evident by now that nothing can be gained in it's continuance.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
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