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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/2/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Netking
(11/2/01; 23:45:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64585)
Gold and Silver warehouse stocks
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4198634307117121537
Comex - Nov 2.
Mr Gresham
(11/2/01; 22:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 64584)
tg : von mises -- Citizenship
""No one can find a safe way out for himself if society is sweeping towards destruction. Therefore everyone, in his own interests, must thrust himself vigorously into the intellectual battle. "
That's a wonderful quote; Mises sounds like, guess who, Ralph Nader. We live in a pathetic age when someone needs to suggest to us that we each spend, not one hour a day, but one measly hour a week being CITIZENS of this free land.
(Every time the President says "consumer" in public, he should immediately be strapped down and forced to say "Citizen, citizen... " 100 times.)
It begins with SELF-education, and it is obvious that we and the denizens of a hundred other 'Net forums do more than our share in that regard.
(And look -- we even end up coming to some opposite opinions after that -- but the important factor is the INTELLIGENCE showing in and after the effort at self-educating.)
A majority of Americans are far from even beginning that self-education to participate in democratic citizenship. (Are we here, perhaps, over-compensating for them?) Some of that time would be better spent getting these ideas of Mises and Nader -- about becoming true CITIZENS, WHATEVER your opinion turns out to be -- to our families, friends and neighbors.
BR549
(11/2/01; 22:13:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64583)
Gold and 21st Century WAR
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/index.html
uponroof (msg#: 64571)---
Your posts are right on the money. Still no proof on this site of the Allies intentionally "slaughtering innocents" in Afghanistan. Collateral damage occurs in all wars: The Pentagon says the (Taliban civilian death) figures are exaggerated, but admits that civilian deaths are impossible to avoid in an air war, a.k.a., collateral damage. No INTENT here like with 911.
tg (msg#: 64582)"...we all must keep in mind that all that is needed for evil to triumph is to misunderstand the nature of evil, and to target the wrong "enemy.":
In reference to "evil" I quote Holger Jensen—"There have been some dramatic foreign policy realignments at home and abroad, and one can safely say that bin Laden has achieved none of his purported goals. In the words of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, "Out of the shadow of this evil should emerge lasting good."
Terrorism is different that any other war that we have fought because the evil is spread around the globe in over 60 countries. The Allies will eventually target the "right" enemy but unfortunately many civilians will pay the ultimate price in the meanwhile.
Mr Gresham (msg#: 64575)--
I read your link to Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin. A great link but the horrors there, may have been more suitable reading on Halloween.(Ha!) "Lotsa" problems. Rea good stuff there.
BTW-I get your message and since Gold is indeed a "political metal" that the new economic and military war that that is being waged against terrorism is relevant to the world's economic situation and ultimately to the POG.
Listen to the words I do agree with about this new war of the 21st Century:
"Bin Laden's greatest mistake, perhaps, was in creating an alliance that no collection of religious zealots or Muslim states can hope to defeat. ..."He may or may not yet prove able to foment a Muslim uprising of great breadth but, by inadvertence, he seems to have made a far more potent alliance nearly inevitable. Only a strategic blunder even greater than his own will prevent the United States, China and Russia from joining now in common cause to protect the order and security of which they uniquely are guarantors."
--Holger Jensen
Thanks for the advice though.
BR549
tg
(11/2/01; 21:37:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64582)
(No Subject)
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
BR549 & Uponroof -
As Joseph Sobran said, "You delude and flatter yourself if you think someone hates you for your virtues." Their deep hatred is rooted in years of bullying by the U.S. government, whose embargoes, bullets, bombs, and cruise missiles have been brought to bear on them whenever and wherever American politicians felt it in their own interests to do so.
"No one can find a safe way out for himself if society is sweeping towards destruction. Therefore everyone, in his own interests, must thrust himself vigorously into the intellectual battle. None can stand aside with unconcern; the interests of everyone hang on the result. Whether he chooses or not, every man is drawn into the great historical struggle, the decisive battle into which our epoch has plunged us."(ludwig von mises)
I agree, but we all must keep in mind that all that is needed for evil to triumph is to misunderstand the nature of evil, and to target the wrong "enemy."
BR549
(11/2/01; 20:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 64581)
The time between first discovering gold deposits and actually beginning to mine the gold can be as long as five years. Last year, this resulted in a positive $1.5 billion contribution to the nation's balance of trade.
http://www.goldinstitute.org
Some tidbits that I found while attempting to find the total production of Gold. The est. total is 1454.35 millions of troy oz's. The U.S. is solidly in 2nd place behind S. Africa in production.
"For many years, 75% or more of the gold needed by U.S. manufacturers was imported from other countries. From 1980 forward, however, U.S. gold production climbed steadily -- from one million to nearly 11 million ounces annually -- due to important advances in exploration, mining and processing technologies. Today, the U.S. is the world's second largest producer and can meet all of its domestic gold needs while still making 36% of U.S. production available for export. Last year, this resulted in a positive $1.5 billion contribution to the nation's balance of trade."
"The time between first discovering gold deposits and actually beginning to mine the gold can be as long as five years. This planning and preparation process is also expensive, often requiring an investment of hundreds of millions of dollars before the first ounce of gold can be produced."
"And because gold is biologically inactive, it has become a vital tool for medical research and is even used in the direct treatment of arthritis and other intractable diseases." Maybe someday a future cure for anthrax?
So if these Gold mines go out of business via too low a price, it will take years to bring the production back.
I wonder who is buying the $1.5BB the U.S. is exporting?
An interesting site for other uses of physical Gold for those who have not visited in a while.
BR549
slingshot
(11/2/01; 20:00:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64580)
Black Blade Body Count
As the number of unemployed approaches 1 million and those who have been removed from the roles of benifits one can only imagine the hardships that will befall many families in the USA and around the world. Even if they find work at pay well below their past earnings they will still find themselves in dire straits. The industrial base of The USA has long gone to rust with the introduction of High Tech.
Has the plan been to reduce this country to a third world
participant even if it has superpower status in name only?
I feel that goldbugs at this time are fortunate to buy gold at this price while we still have jobs. For how long? The destruction of the middle class would be a major win for TPTB. Who would then buy the bullion while they struggle to put food on the table? While they frown at the mention of Gold they only condemn themselves to be servant to the ruling class. As one has mentioned before if each one of us would buy one ounce we would put such a demand on gold that it could free gold from manipulation.
As I have read over time your Body Count and your warnings have become more urgent,I wanted to show a direct corellation between the body count and the purchase of gold.
Unemployment, availability and a rise in the price of gold would put most out of reach to accumulate. The time is now to put away for the rainy day.
On the flip side, most people that lurk here will understand
unemployment and not all the market terms use in this forum and they may become Goldbugs.
Slingshot
tg
(11/2/01; 19:46:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 64579)
Uponroof
WW2 - Hiroshima,Nagasagi, Dresden. All aimed at instilling fear and killing as many innocents as possible. ( a bit like 911 dont you think)
1969 - when Nixon and kissenger launched their secret and illegal bombing of neutral Cambodia, witn American pilots logs being falsified to conceal the crime. Between 1969 and 1973 American bombers killed 3/4 million Cambodian pesants
1996- Israel massacred 102 refugees including women and children in a UN base in Qana, South Lebanon.
If you ask I will give you 100 more.
Its only a crime and acts of terrorism when it happens to us, Its a war when it happens to them. We are all murderers no matter which way you try and justify it
Galearis
(11/2/01; 19:33:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 64578)
@Old Yeller re: JP's Storm Watch Update
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
I especially like the finish:
snippet*************
I go back to my original questions posed at the beginning of this article. How bad will this recession get, how long will it last, and what will the recovery look like if and when it emerges? That depends on many things that may be beyond the government's ability to control. It will depend on whether there are further terrorist acts and how quickly we are able to end this war. It will depend on consumer and investor confidence. It will depend on the strength and confidence of the dollar. It will rest on chance that there will be no more financial contagions or brush fires that will have to be put out. It will be based on the hope that inflation doesn't resurface, that energy prices remain stable, and the price of gold and silver can be kept from rising. "Depends" and "if" are big words in a time of recession and war. It will take more than countermeasures to keep them from striking their targets. ~ JP
*****************
Especially the reference to gold AND silver...
G.
Black Blade
(11/2/01; 18:05:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64577)
Bush says higher jobless rate "not good news"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011102/n02338695_3.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush made an urgent appeal on Friday to the U.S. Senate to pass his economic stimulus package, decrying last month's surge in unemployment as ``not good news for America.''
Black Blade: "Not good news" - I'd say that is an understatement.
Black Blade
(11/2/01; 17:52:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 64576)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
As the humongus pile of "Bones" grows ever higher, these few nonessential "Bones" just were added. It will get much worse of course as companies struggle to remain viable. The 5.4% unemployment number is only the "Bones" that qualify for benefits and not the disqualified "Bones" or those sore old "Bones" that have given up. The unemployed now are about 7.8% of the qualified US population. The number is likely to grow upwards to 14% to 22% in the intermediate term and probably in the 22% to 28% range when correlated to historical data (projected worst case). Definitely get prepared for the other shoe to drop - get out of debt, get basic necessities, gold and silver portfolio insurance, defensively realign the investment portfolio (be very "picky"), and have enough cash set aside for several months expenses. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Mr Gresham
(11/2/01; 17:47:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 64575)
Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
Hey, the gang's all here (Is it Friday night already?)
slingshot
(11/2/01; 17:24:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 64574)
interstate Msg# 645548
potassium iodide
Potassium iodide which is in some brands of table salt does have the capability to ward off radiation sickness when the thyroid is saturated. But is by no means full protection. Also if you are allergic to iodine can cause death.First reaction would be hot flashes. I know cause I am alergic to iodine and beside table salt, seafood can do me in. Anyhow it looks like Goldbugs are thinking about plenty of things that could happen.
The price of Gold is back to $280.00 Good,I can still buy some. Silver at $4.11 and my coin dealer still at $5.75.
Have to do some looking around,yes?
Slingshot
Pandagold
(11/2/01; 16:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 64573)
Uponroof Peace and - stay happy
Uponroof I have said my piece, and Mr Gresham has made a very valid comment which I will take to heart.
However, in your feeling that you know where I am coming from, I do hope you include that I am, as yet, not totally convinced of who really is responsible for Sept 11th.
I have learned not to trust what politicians want me to believe. I also believe in our system of English justice that a man is innocent until proven guilty by an impartial judge and jury- whatever the crime.
Maybe I am just old fashioned, or just too British.
Cheers, stay happy
Pandagold
(11/2/01; 16:33:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64572)
Mr Gresham Agreed
You are so perfectly on the mark. I vowed never to let anyone get me in that trap again. It is so easy to be led astray if you drop your guard.
No one wins, everyone loses - even the 'innocent' bystanders.
Back to gold and things directly related ( I will repeat that mantra until I fall asleep tonight.) I promise
uponroof
(11/02/01; 16:26:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 64571)
Pandagold
I see we are going to have to agree to disagree here. Quickly, let me end with this:
E Hemmingway, someone who lost a war with himself, is hardly a source for what war is about. You may prefer his idealistic view of it being 'a crime', I understand it as a necessity in this cursed world.
Pandagold: "...Uponroof: I checked back to your original post. You did not make it quite clear that you wanted incidents in this particular 'conflict' of slaughtering innocents by Britain and the US. However, you cannot divorce what precedents are set on one occasion from another. Once these things are done they become examples. The greatest teaching is by -'monkey see, monkey do..."
You have replaced the examples I seek with your theory of "precedents set on one occasion from another...monkey see, monkey do...". No good. No accountability. We could justify every homicide since the Garden of Eden through this philosophy.
I would like to see something equivalent of the very intentional killing of 5000 completely innocent civilians, which was perpetrated on the Taliban. While you're at it please try to explain why these 'oppressed muslims' are executing women for expressing themselves as equals.
If not, that's OK. I have a very good idea of where you're coming from now. My understanding of your position is enough. Persuation through a keyboard is almost impossible. Perhaps another time in a pub over beers my friend. Till then the endless quest to change others opinions will wait.
Cheers.
auspec
(11/2/01; 16:18:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64570)
ORO
Good Sir, may I direct a question you way in regards to the various 'independent' Central Banking institutions across the globe? The pupil is in search of the teacher. Would love one of your extensive and in-depth analysis, but will settle for what you are willing to explain, or even a pertinent reference. These questions have been expressed a couple times in the last week or so w no takers. I have no doubts that you are more than capable of expounding on this issue if you would be so gracious.
Starting with our own Fed, its owners are known and fairly available to a 'seeker'. Of course there is a degree of common ownership between the Fed and the BoE, and I will further venture this 'commonality' extends outwards to Canada, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand just for starters.
How about the various EU countries? There have certainly been 'mergers and acquisitions' throughout the centuries, no? The simple fact that the same folks keep marrying the same folks speaks for commonality of CB ownership here.
China is most intriguing to try and figure out along this line of thought. Are they strictly centrally planned w/o outside influences, or have the ancient European and Chinese passages left footprints? Brits to HK to China? Same goes with Russia {even more so} with their previous monarchy.
How about South America, which has deep European ties, being former 'colonies' to a degree at least? Of course there are many methods of 'influencing' a country such as Ecuador into gold market participation, really no point in elaborating right now. Common partial ownership or undue influence wouldn't hurt the cause.
I would guess that the Islamic world of CBs is a world unto itself. How does all this break down?
Are CB ownership 'chips' subject to transfers or M & A's? Hostile takeovers? Can you advance this line of thinking for many of us?
Thank you in advance, ORO.
Kind regards,
auspec
Mr Gresham
(11/2/01; 16:02:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 64569)
Panda & BR549, & liquidity thoughts on a walk
You've both been doing so well for us lately, keeping us thinking about the bigger picture we're living in. When you go slightly OT to make a point about gold & economics, we follow. When you go far down one of the trails, we hesitate. When you quarrel over a fork in one of the trails, and it starts to sound personal, we feel embarrassed and wish we were somewhere else. We want you to come back to the context where we so much value your contributions.
Me, pondering the infla,defla, lala question once more: It seems much more important just WHO gets the newly-"printed" money in a time of collapse, and then what THEY do with that money, doesn't it? It starts to get much more directly traceable (wish it were, anyway) to individual institutions and their investment positions.
For example, Fed looks like it's going to end up propping up the FNM and other GSE paper, by purchasing it with Fed fiat. That cushions the crucial housing market when paper prices are dropping all around it. But, most important, it bails out GSE paper-holders, makes them whole. First ring of preference, after T-bond holders? They get a check, and the Fed gets to work out our future mortgage payments. (?Does it point this way?, check me on it)
The former GSE paper holder now has $ in his checking account. Liquidity seeks inflating assets. He knows that values are crashing down around him, and housing will follow eventually. His move must be into unleveraged REAL assets, like PMs.
Unless he is bound under some terms of the Fed bailout to keep his money in the desired arena, his self-interest calls for moves in our direction.
The questions during a recession are: WHO has the cash, and WHO has pricing power?
This is how Fed money-"printing" moves gold up, in otherwise deflationary times.
Old Yeller
(11/2/01; 15:02:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 64568)
Storm watch update
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Interesting times.
Leigh
(11/2/01; 14:13:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 64567)
Where is Aristotle?
Didn't Aristotle promise to come back a couple of weekends ago? What could have happened to him?
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(11/2/01; 14:03:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 64566)
It's all about quality (and quantity, too)
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account......Delivered to Your Door.Call Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115
Pandagold
(11/2/01; 13:58:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 64565)
B2549
My expression 'slaughter of innocents' covered all non combatants in a conflict, ANY conflict, who lose their lives. That is quite clear. Now how does that offend those who died at the WTC?
What was it then if not a slaughter of innocents? Slaughter: means to kill ruthlessly especially in great numbers. Innocents: means not guilty.
So how would you describe them?
You see only what you want to see and get emotional about.
And you appear to enjoy it.
Pandagold
(11/2/01; 13:42:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 64564)
BR549
BR549 You should stay inside your Israeli gas mask you appear so proud of as your challenge to me spews jumbled rhetoric, and totally ignores my explanation.
Living memory is not the war of 1812, or even 1917. Many many people are still alive from the second world war, and more also from Vietnam, you do not have to look in dusty history books. So please cut the crap. I also explained how these are totally relevant, and cannot be ignored, though you may choose to.
Do you want me to go on about the atrocities being carried out by Israel AT THIS PRESENT TIME- they are well documented - and photographed.
The first real terrorist groups The Haganah, The Stern gang and the Irgun, that appeared after the second world war, not only killed British civilians but even their own Jewish civilians when it blew up the King David hotel, and put bombs in other public places. The success of these terrorist groups (I suppose to you they were freedom fighters) gave the idea and the impetus for other groups with an agenda to go on the rampage.
Now Israel, a nation born with the help of its terrorists, cries because a people fighting for its existence strikes back with the same weapon.
You should also learn who first perfected, introduced, and directed, chemical warfare against an enemy. No, it was not Iraq. His name is Fritz Haber - a German Jew.
Wear your Israeli gas mask with pride my friend.
You, sir, may have a convenient short memory, but others do not. 'Monkey see, monkey do'. What goes around comes around.
This is the real problem with this world, there are too many people who only want to remember that which suits them, or their cause. But, alas, it does not work that way.
They often get reminded by events that can be devastating, and often others suffer as a result.
BR549
(11/2/01; 13:39:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 64563)
Pandagold (msg#: 64537)BR549---"You find 'slaughter of innocents' offensive - especially since all the bodies at WTC have not yet all been identified? Would it make a difference if they were all identified?"
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,37925,00.html
How about this for a "difference" Panda-
" Firefighter Bob McGuire, whose nephew Richard Allen was among those missing in the rubble, said remains had been loaded into trash bins. "I don't want him to end up in a Dumpster," McGuire said.
The firefighters' union says it fears that would turn the recovery effort into a "full-time construction scoop-and-dump operation."
"The reduction in emergency personnel is really an attempt to speed up debris removal, and it is upsetting to the families," said Peter Gorman, president of the Uniformed Fire Officers Association.
Firefighters estimate that 250 firefighters are still buried in the rubble.
"That site, besides containing roughly 250 firefighter bodies, also contains many, many, many civilian bodies as well," said Michael Carter, vice president of the Uniformed Firefighters Association.
On Thursday, the New York Fire Department added 240 new members to its ranks, handing out diplomas to trainees at a ceremony marked by six empty chairs -- seats symbolically held for classmates who died in the trade center collapse. "
BR-How insensitive to the victims families that were "slaughtered" in 911. If this report was from Afghanistan, then it would probably would have ended up in one of your posts.
BR549
Gimli_
(11/2/01; 13:28:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 64562)
Deflation vs. Dollar Devaluation
http://www.gilder.com/AmericanSpectatorArticles/Deflation.htm
In 1996, as Internet investment accelerated and the election results pointed to a tax cut in 1997, the price of gold began its decline. Mostly blind to these developments, even misreading them as inflationary and deploring them as "irrational exuberance," the Fed failed to supply the liquidity the market needed. Greenspan was worried about the mini-inflation he allowed when the Clinton tax increase of 1993 reduced the demand for liquidity, and the Fed did not remove the surplus by selling bonds. Gold had averaged $350, more or less, since 1985. It rose to $385 in 1994 and stayed there, despite Greenspan's efforts to squeeze out the inflation with higher interest rates. The classical economists could have told him, as did I, that he could only bring down the gold price by selling interest-bearing bonds from the Fed's cache, withdrawing the liquidity. But gold had been so demonized by the demand-siders that Greenspan probably believed he would have been ridiculed for any gold-based move. So he hunkered down and hoped for the "best."
The best, as I see it, is that the deflationary process has only been partially completed. It cannot be reversed unless someone the president respects picks up the phone and tells him there is no remedy except an inflation to readjust the gold price. With Greenspan now turning 75 and wishing to retire, the pieces may fall into place before year's end. When it does, the gold price will either shoot up and stop at a point where the interests of debtors and creditors are in balance, or it may shoot up much higher, as it did when the deflations of 1982 and 1985 ended. Long-term interest rates are as high as they are, even in this deflation, because they have experienced this phenomenon before.
Inflation hawks, of course, will deny that deflation is possible while the CPI ekes up and various money supply indices bulge like mattresses in a banking crisis. The CPI was also registering "inflation" during the 1981-83 deflationary squeeze, as it is today. Then, the indices were still being driven up by the previous inflation and had not yet fully reacted to the dollar/gold price. Because contracts can take decades to unwind, this process is gradual. Only now are we beginning to see the "noise" created by the deflation-induced crude shortage removed from headline consumer and producer price indices.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thirty years after going off gold, there is virtually no talk anywhere in the world of going back to it. We seem to have somehow gotten along without it after all. Or have we? Those who continue to believe a dollar/gold link is the only way the market can effectively tell the Federal Reserve how much money it needs are now prepared to argue that the world can no longer endure a floating standard of value. Jack Kemp, a leading Reaganaut of the 1980s and champion of gold and low tax rates, most recently reiterated that there really is no alternative to a gold anchor. He sees how gold would have prevented the accumulation of errors that now bedevil our economy—and that of the entire world, which looks to the United States dollar as the key currency. It is always the poorest people and the poorest countries that are most damaged by the absence of reliable standards of measure. The Third World would benefit most with a return to gold. But as the only superpower in a unipolar world, the United States is the only country in a realistic position to make the move.
Gold Trail Update
(11/2/01; 12:35:28MDT - Msg ID:64561)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Mr Gresham
(11/2/01; 12:25:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 64560)
GATA link?
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/911
My GATA link seems to be frozen on the message that TommyP linked us to, and won't pull up any previous message or the message index.
Guess which message it's frozen on? Yup.
Belgian
(11/2/01; 12:23:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 64559)
@ Oro
The South Africans were (obsessed) pioneers (1960) in oil-substitution research : SASOL I and II . BTW, a former Kennedy's play. Oil substitution is only one of the elements, that are involved in the management (by OPEC) of the POO. But my point is, that something has changed, from the Gulf war, onwards ! A major part of the *cheap* oil is slowly to become -islamized-. And it is here that the very tricky Russian factor will come into play. Not with islamization as such, but as a starting base for the rebuilding of this plundered country.
The POO is not only of dramatic importance for the global economy, but also, more and more a vital instrument for approx. 2 billion people on the quest for prosperity !
The management of the POO is gaining in complexity (more parameters, economical/political). Probably part of globalization and expansive urge to participate as homo economicus. etc...
Intervieuw (CNBC-Europ) with Bobby Godsell (CEO Anglogold), complaining that there are not enough possibilities to service the increased demand for Gold as an investment (coins/bars/etc). CPM ? Marketing-campaign ?
ge
(11/2/01; 12:10:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 64558)
Dow Utilities testing lows in an environment of falling interest rates
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$UTIL,uu[l,a]maclyimy[pb12][vc60][i]
Isn't that strange? Or is it just forecasting higher rates in the future?
BR549
(11/02/01; 11:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 64557)
Silver futures fell to an eight-year low, as a weakening U.S. economy reduces demand from photographic film makers, the largest users of the metal.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO_LfsxPpU2lsdmVy
Film sales by Eastman Kodak Co., the biggest photographic company, fell 18 percent during the four-week period ended Oct. 7, according to Information Resources Inc. Silver futures have given up all of the 14 percent gain recorded after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, as investors abandoned the metal as a haven from disruptions to financial markets.
``People don't have as much use for silver anymore,'' said Mario Batelic, president of Gemark Corp. in Newburgh, New York, a supplier of recycled silver to Kodak. ``The photographic industry is not doing well.''
No use for silver, huh? I guess that in the derivatives since, silver investors could buy puts in silver and calls in Kodak.
Anthrax found in two European countries now and in the mailbox of a USA Anthrax victim. Indeed a world problem. I am going to start wearing my Israeli gas mask into the post office to retrieve my mail.
Let's just all ignore terrorism, it will just go away, won't it?
BR549
goldquest
(11/02/01; 11:23:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 64556)
Tommy P
The hearing is Monday, the 5th. I agree with you on wishing all of the best to Howe and GATA!
Old Yeller
(11/02/01; 11:21:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 64555)
Stephen Roach on Operation Twist II
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
Yes,it's a Treasury manipulation,all in a day's work these days.
I'm surprised that no-one has commented on Murphy's comments about the large hedgers yesterday.
"Apparently Anglogold told a questioner in London yesterday that shrinking gold liquidity meant Normandy's hedgebook is not sustainable.Bringing it down to Anglo's policy implies a 3 million oz. reduction."
"AU,ABX,PDG have hedgebooks which appear mark to market negative around $280,low 290's and 310 or so."
Music to our ears.
Belgian
(11/02/01; 11:10:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 64554)
*Oil* in the world as it is.
Her Majesty's Nigerian BP-oil, is acting " un-opec-ly ", and helping POO to slip slide away. Nigerian's presidente, was invited for a (personal)and rewarding, collect(ivity) visit to Bushy. Friends of friends....Naaahhhhhh
BR549
(11/02/01; 11:07:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 64553)
There is nothing in those dusty old books that has to do with the first war of the 21st Century
Pandagold (11/2/01; 03:01:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 64537)---" About your 'hate of dusty books', you will note in my post to 'uponroof' I said 'no need to reach for musty history books'."
What you said in your previous post is: "Rather than me start listing them (BR-‘them’ is the slaughter of innocents), just stop and reflect, you don't have to go reaching back into musty old history books."
This is also my final post on this subject but you still have NOT listed any policy in effect by the Allies that calls for the "slaughter of innocents", outside of those musty old history books, HAVE YOU?
Credibility -- You were asked twice by two separate posters to "BACK UP" your previous statement in your previous posting and you cannot. We all know why.
Any references outside of the 21st Century are as meaningless about the "slaughter of innocents" in Afghanistan as the War of 1812, WWII, Viet Nam and all of the other past wars. The term "slaughter of innocents" is such a meaningless offensive term used by some as a rationale for "doing nothing" to combat world terrorism.
BR549
(11/02/01; 11:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 64552)
U.S. oil prices slithered below $20 a barrel for the first time in more than two years on Friday as a barrage of bad economic news deepened gloom about the prospects for fuel demand.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,37923,00.html
NEW YORK —
"December crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 59 cents to $19.84 a barrel by 10:30 a.m. EST, its lowest point since July 1999.
The OPEC cartel's strong signal of a 4 percent supply cut -- its fourth reduction this year -- when ministers meet later this month has failed to shore up the market.
A government report showing the United States losing 415,000 jobs in October, the biggest monthly fall in two decades, reinforced concern about wilting demand. "
The poor Saudi's and OPEC must really be hurting now.
BR549
Mr Gresham
(11/02/01; 11:02:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 64551)
Ends & Means
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Contrary Investor is in (link above) -- always a good read...
Pandagold: War is a tool, not a glory of man. Generals not among the manipulators have taught us it is right to hate war, while politicians who needed our participation have tried to keep us tilted in controllable (by them) directions. This is all understandable, predictable.
War thrives on romanticism, a specialty of "livin' in the USA". Cynicism is a brake on romanticism, but it sure freezes the soul if that's all you've got. Just reminds me to keep on moving in the few things I may still be idealistic/energized about. "Food" for the soul.
Gold as a tool, a means, not an end. Gotta think a little more on that and put things in proper relation.
Michael: Hope Ruff is right. Could use a little of that 2k stuff. As Neil sang it so long ago "Keep me searchin' for a heart of gold. And I'm gettin' old."
Tommy P
(11/02/01; 10:52:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 64550)
In exactly 1 hour regie Howe fights for us!!!!!!!!!!!
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/911
Wish him luck!
USAGOLD
(11/02/01; 09:50:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64549)
Today's Commentary: $2000 Gold??
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
Gold was up slightly in the early going with little in the
way of news to encourage movement in one direction
or the other. Investors instead are looking to the
medium and long term attempting to ascertain what
portfolio structure makes the most sense in the wake of
the September 11 and the onset of economic conditions
which reveal a more threatening aspect by the day.
Today's employment numbers are a case in point
showing a troubling 5.4% overall gain year over year
-- up from 4.9% last month. Investors are adopting a
more defensive attitude and for many that means a
diversification into gold. Report after report (See links
below) from every region of the globe -- from North
America to Europe and Asia -- tells of increased
interest in the metal, increased inquiries at bullion
dealers and more metal being pulled out of circulation.
In the same vain, a greater number of analysts from old
time gold bulls like James Dines and Howard Ruff to
formerly adamant bears like Andy Smith and some of
the big trading banks have surfaced to say that gold's
time has come. Something's happening in the world
economy and investors and analysts alike increasingly
are turning to gold as an insurance against an uncertain
financial future.
According to CNBC's Money Central, two of gold's
legendary enthusiasts, James Dines and Howard Ruff
-- both subdued about the yellow metal in recent years
-- are now back touting the metal in full force. James
Dines "sees a major recovery in gold prices during the
next big currency crisis. He see it erupting first in
Argentina or Brazil some time next year and affecting
all of Latin America, including Mexico. He expects that
the response to a currency problem will be similar to
the 1997 flight to gold when Asian investors turned to
the precious metal as their economies and markets
collapsed around them."
[Ed. Note: According to a Reuters article, Argentina
appears headed today for a debt crisis and currency
devaluation likely to cause major problems throughout
South America and rattle Wall Street. The one-day
peso rate overnight jumped to 80% today with capital
drying up in that country. ]
Likewise Howard Ruff sees a new bull market
developing in the months and years to come "[I]n the
long run," says Ruff, "gold bought at today's prices is
going to be worth a lot of money at some time in the
future." When pressed about how far away that future
might be, he said, "Not tomorrow, or next week, but
perhaps one, two or three years from now, it has the
potential to be worth $2,000 an ounce."
Have a good weekend, fellow goldmeisters. I think
you will enjoy the articles quoted and linked below.
Note: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the portfolio issues addressed briefly below are covered in detail in our latest 32-page Quarterly Review. Please go to the link above to register for your packet. Registration includes trial period access to our Commentary & Review page. Today's report sans links and referenced articles is offered below for those first-time visitors who might have an interest in an (almost) daily report on the gold market with our spin not the mainstream media's. MK
Interstate
(11/02/01; 09:02:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 64548)
Survival
Well, with unemployment now at 5.4%, I hope those other than goldbugs have prepared for things to sink deeper and deeper. IMHO, get rid of paper (except toilet paper and store plenty) and put it in gold and silver. I also believe that we should be prepared even more than we did for Y2K...food, water and bartering items (which would be considered luxury items on down the line. Chocolate, sugar, liquor).
But first, call our host and get gold in small and large denominations.
Also, are you familiar with potassium iodide? Check it out. Used for radiation and non-prescription and FDA approved.
I consider all the above as insurance, not panic actions.
Later, Interstate
Cavan Man
(11/02/01; 08:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 64547)
Market Averages
Up, up; here they come.
Black Blade
(11/02/01; 08:38:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 64546)
Pandagold
I gotta run, however, it is true that new technology in a service-economy we will find many jobs redundant (such as bankers, brokers, etc.). Those that actually are producers may find some protection and even then it will be rough as consumer confidence crumbles. We are living in "Interesting Times." I am afraid that the "Times" will become even more "Interesting." Cheers!
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/02/01; 08:28:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64545)
Factory Orders Slide Sharply in September
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for goods made at U.S. factories dropped sharply in September, the government said on Friday in a report that provided more evidence the U.S. manufacturing sector's year-long recession is far from over. Led by large declines in orders for transportation, computer and electrical equipment, the value of U.S. factory orders in September fell 5.8 percent -- the biggest drop since January -- to a seasonally adjusted $313.15 billion, the Commerce Department said. Orders fell 0.1 percent in August. The orders decline in September was worse than forecast by Wall Street analysts who on average figured factory orders fell 4.7 percent in September.
Black Blade: Looks to get much worse. This recession will likely be very severe and protracted. There is absolutely no positive economic news anywhere. The Pied Pipers struggle to spin anything positive but only come up with the same old tired clichés such as we are at a "bottom" - "stocks are cheaper because prices fallen" - unfortunately PE ratios have rocketed higher due to lower earnings, etc. Everything is beautiful until one removes the rose-colored glasses. The latest economic data over the last several weeks has been dismal at best.
Pandagold
(11/02/01; 08:23:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 64544)
Black Blade 'The Bone Pile'
What has not yet sunk in is this 'body shedding' is not a temporary abhorrence that once the economy picks up it will be 'back to work again'.
Technology has made, and is making on an ever increasing scale, 'live bodies' redundant in many companies. This had existed for some time, it was just not easy to do on a large scale without considerable social unrest.
It has been happening little by little for some time. There was a need to move quicker so, 'very conveniently', Sept 11th came along.
Labour intensive work, what little there will be, will be sited in low labour cost countries which is the trend now.
The greatest negative effect on a population will be in the United States for the simple reason that they were higher up the ladder (higher you are the farther you fall.)
You will soon know why your military is on high alert - it is the coming social unrest they are practising for. You doubt me, anyone? Well, I don't think you will have to wait too long.
If the establishment manages to keep you focused overseas on some 'bogeyman' created by Hollywood and the CIA, it might hold it off for some time.
As you say - exciting times ahead. Of course, it really depends on one's brand of excitement.
Watch China and Russia for stirrings in gold and listen to not what is said, but what is done - actions speak louder than words and are easier to understand.
Galearis
(11/02/01; 08:13:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 64543)
Silver
interesting... Kitco charts on silver
A huge jump in the 6 month lease rates, almost one per cent, and an eight cent drop in paper spot silver, and voila, JPM was correct in where this market is going. Note that the activity in London would also indicate that those on the other side of the water knew what was to happen in New York.
Paper spot separating? I wonder if my dealer will sell me bullion at around $4.13 with a smile tomorrow.
(smile)
G.
ORO
(11/02/01; 08:12:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64542)
Belgian - Org chem
Belgian, I am a Chemical Engineer by training and have some years of practice in oil refining, shale oil, colloids, ammo and arms, environmental science (treatment and assessments).
I know with certainty that all that can be extracted from oil can be extracted from coal or coal with nat-gas. Some additional items play into the mix in agriculture and nuclear assisted marginal oil shale and coal extraction and liquification, and in ag. etc.. By the way, Nuke assistance simply means supply of hydrogen for cracking and reforming heavier coal, tar sand, and shale organics, and using marginal heat from the nuke plants for energy.
Irrational fears and nihilist environmental activists stand between any economic project in this field and its application. Thus the most productive role for a chemical engineer is to preach against these irrational fears and unreasoned environmentalism, as well as working against politics - i.e. eliminating political decision making from economic endeavor, meaning less authority to government.
Black Blade
(11/02/01; 07:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 64541)
Job Losses Are the Worst in Two Decades
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011102/business_economy_jobs_dc_2.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. job market suffered its heaviest blow in more than two decades in October, shedding a staggering 415,000 jobs as the full impact of the devastating Sept. 11 attacks struck an economy already in the early stages of recession, a government report on Friday showed. The Labor Department said the national unemployment rate soared half a percentage point to 5.4 percent last month from 4.9 percent in September -- the highest in nearly five years since a matching 5.4 percent rate in December 1996.
Analysts said the report pointed to a broad and steepening economic slowdown and boosted the odds for another aggressive cut in interest rates next week by the Federal Reserve. October's job losses were the sharpest for any month since May 1980, when 464,000 were dropped from payrolls, and came on top of a revised 213,000-job decrease in September -- even worse than the initially reported 199,000 job loss.
Black Blade: So grows the "Bone Pile" as many more nonessential "Bones" are cast aside in a deepening recession that should prove to be long term and extremely severe - an economic crash possibly rivaling the 1930's Great Depression. Get out of debt, get basic necessities, get gold and silver portfolio insurance, and have enough cash to cover expenses for several months. Hang on for the ride. In a word - "GRIM"
Cavan Man
(11/2/01; 05:39:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 64540)
Argentina details
)" target="_blank">Something "new"??? :>)
Argentina Plans to Default on $95 Billion of Bonds
(Update4)
By John Lyons and David Plumb and Andrew Barden
Buenos Aires, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina plans to default on at least $95
billion of bonds, more than twice the amount Russia failed to honor in 1998, by
swapping the debt for securities that pay lower interest rates.
President Fernando De la Rua said the government will cut $4 billion of interest
payments next year by exchanging new securities that pay average rates of
about 7 percent, compared with 15 percent now. Argentina's floating rate bond
fell 14 percent to an offer price of 41.75, to yield 69 percent, according to J.P.
Morgan Securities Inc. The one-day peso interest rate tripled to as high as 190
percent.
``This is something new for the financial community in terms of order of
magnitude,'' said Mauro Leos, an analyst at Moody's Investors Service. ``It is
unique in every respect.''
tg
(11/2/01; 04:07:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 64539)
Pandagold
I realllllllly enjoy your posts and insights. Keep it up.
Nice to see a shining light in a world that seems to be getting darker.
Your posts have everything to do with gold. Gold allows us to stand outside the economic and political MANIPULATIONS of our governments. Your posts reaffirm how we are being manipulated.
Belgian
(11/2/01; 03:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 64538)
Goodmorning,
Oro # 64508 :
You >>>...oil does NOT have an intrinsic value...it is replaceable...mystical belief (cfr. TG)....???????
Pooh, pooh, this was an icy cold, morning shower ! Brrrrh
Your description of the POO-management (ME), in your #64508 post is exactly the evidence of my "upside down vieuw of oil".
Time to take a look at organical-chemistry and synthesis from crude oil cracked derivates ! Everything around you/me and all of us, is crude oil related, directly or indirectly.
W'll meet again when POO ticks 40 $, Sir !
Gresham: Don't worry about hibernation with the yellow blanket, firmly wrapped around you. Hibernation is the correct status.
Auspec : *Command Economy*, sure it is, without any, any, any doubt ! Thanks for updating on the crash-maker and HSL.
Pandagold
(11/2/01; 03:01:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 64537)
BR549, Uponroof, and others
Never think that war
no matter how necessary
nor how justified is
not a crime
E. Hemingway
BR549 You find 'slaughter of innocents' offensive - especially since all the bodies at WTC have not yet all been identified? Would it make a difference if they were all identified?
It appears that 'finding things offensive' has now become a rather over played cliché which serves no other purpose than to stimulate emotion in favour of one's particular argument. I notice it is one used by so many posters with connections of ethnicity to Israel whenever that country is criticised.
About your 'hate of dusty books', you will note in my post to 'uponroof' I said 'no need to reach for musty history books'.
Uponroof: I checked back to your original post. You did not make it quite clear that you wanted incidents in this particular 'conflict' of slaughtering innocents by Britain and the US. However, you cannot divorce what precedents are set on one occasion from another. Once these things are done they become examples. The greatest teaching is by - 'monkey see, monkey do.
We glorify the great resistance, and freedom fighters when they are on our side. Lets see, how many films did we make about them, or stories write about them?
Now, when they are used by our 'perceived enemy' - they are evil men, murderers, or terrorists.
When British bombers slaughtered thousands of 'innocent' women and children in the cultural city of Dresden, that was just the misfortunes of war I suppose. The hundreds of old men women and children - some clasped in their mothers arms. that were slaughtered by standing them in a ditch by the American forces in Mai Lai, and other villages, were 'accidents' too?.
I could go on and list many, many, more. The American Indian had a saying about walking in another moccasins. I recommend this to you. By that I mean, try to see, without government implanted doctrine, the other guys point of view.
Now, as far as this 'war' is concerned, I pay no attention to it. Why? Because to my mind it is as phoney as a three dollar bill.
Today it has been announced that they have news that certain California bridges are going to be attacked. I guess the Anthrax scare is now wearing thin, or perhaps people are beginning to notice that the 'victims' (who died) are all but one from ethnic minorities.
Well, it keeps the people behind the government and their minds focussed away from the deteriorating economy and the company layoffs.
Cynical? Of course I am, and people have seen enough from the present as well as past events to be that way.
This is all taking us away from our main topic so I feel it is best left here. If you want to go on fine, but I feel enough has been said on this subject from me.
But remember this, for every 'terrorist' you kill without addressing the cause of why he is that way, you create more for your future.
Netking
(11/2/01; 00:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 64536)
An Interview With Three Influential Figures In The North American Gold Industry.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2001/Nov-2001/gold_interview011101.htm
Some words of wisdom from '3 wise men' being; Martin Murenbeeld one of the most respected gold analysts in North America, Pierre Lassonde President and co-CEO of Franco-Nevada Mining Ltd and Ian Telfer Chairman and CEO of Wheaton River Minerals Ltd.
Snippet:
". . . It was expected in the wake of the Central Bank Agreement on Gold in September 1999 (CBAG - also called the Washington Agreement on Gold, or WAG) that lease rates would rise. This is because the 15 European central banks (including the European Central Bank, or ECB) agreed not only to limit their collective gold sales to 400 tonnes per year, but also to cap gold lending at the then outstanding amount. With a cap on gold lending, any increase in demand would raise the lease rate.
But as it turned out, the year 2000 saw a decline in lease rates as producers backed away from hedging their gold production forward. With U.S. interest rates rising, furthermore, the decline in lease rates opened up a substantial contango, or premium on the forward price of gold. Speculators and "hedge" funds were quick to pounce on the widening contango - by selling borrowed gold and depositing the proceeds in the U.S. credit market. This gold "carry trade" was profitable as long as gold did not rise. And since gold didn't rise, "speculators" were generally short gold for all of the year 2000. Recently this situation has changed. Central banks, in an effort to improve their return on gold lending, have moved out on the yield curve, lending gold for longer periods of time. Less lending for shorter periods has meant a higher short-term lease rate. As well, the available pool of lendable gold seems to have dried up as the cap on lending has been reached. This has also helped to raise the lease rate.
On the other side of the equation, the U.S. has been lowering interest rates quickly this year in an attempt to forestall a recession in the aftermath of the technology "bubble." Ergo, higher lease rates on the one hand and lower U.S. dollar interest rates on the other has meant that the contango for gold has narrowed. This has reduced the incentive underlying the gold "carry trade." Indeed, with gold showing more signs of life, there is a disincentive to be short the market. Not surprisingly, therefore, speculators are now playing gold on the long side; CFTC data show that "speculators" have taken on the largest net long position in gold since February 1996, when gold last rose above $400.
. . . . Murenbeeld says gold has a very bright future. And almost every factor he cites has now been exacerbated with the terrorist attacks in the United States. The economy continues to slump, which at some point could put pressure on the US dollar. Interest rates continue to decline - the "contango" he talks about is now non-existent. There is no incentive for producers or speculators to sell gold short. And the money supply in the United States is increasing, making inflation a strong possibility in the New Year.
------------------------------------------------------------
Thought for the night; "All is fair in love and war"
- Netking
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