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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/2/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(01/02/01; 23:33:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 44909)
NG Prices Down on Weather Forecasts
By Gloria Gonzalez, BridgeNews
New York--Jan. 2--NYMEX Feb Henry Hub natural gas futures ended down $1.411, or 14.43%, at $8.364 per MMBtu amid forecasts for warmer weather in the Midwest beginning this week and continuing into the middle of January. Market observers attributed the weakness to warming forecasts from both the National Weather Service and private forecasters. "It's just strictly a weather play," said Salomon Smith Barney analyst Kyle Cooper. Temperatures will be cooler than usual in the southeastern states while a large part of the northern and central Plains and Midwest turns warmer than usual, according to the latest 6- to 10-day weather forecast period from the National Weather Service. Welcome relief to one of the coldest Decembers on record will come to the Midwest Jan. 9-15, according to the NWS 8- to 14-day outlook. Temperatures will be warmer than usual from Minnesota, far eastern South Dakota, extreme eastern Nebraska and far northeastern Kansas through Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and northern Tennessee to New England, New York state, New Jersey, Delaware and the majority of Virginia. Cooler than usual temperatures will occur from west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and extreme southern Colorado through Arizona and far southern Nevada to central and southern California. The remainder of the nation will experience near normal temperatures.
OUTLOOK:
Players will continue to monitor the weather reports for any change to the forecasts for moderating temperatures. "It's going to be very sensitive to the weather forecasts for the next week," one broker said. "With all the demand that we've lost, with any decrease in electric generation demand, you're going to have some gas looking for a home." Brokers indicated that the market should see a rebound from Tuesday's sharp sell-off, particularly with the overall fundamental outlook still supportive. "I can't believe this market's going to continue to move down," another broker said. "I see no fundamental shift in this market whatsoever." The broker added that he expected the market to consolidate in the $8 to $10 range, noting that despite a brief break above the $10 mark last week, it still represented strong resistance. Meanwhile, the American Gas Association is expected to report that U.S. natural gas storage levels decreased by about 185 to 205 billion cubic feet although estimates as low as 130 bcf and as high as 230 bcf have circulated in the market, according to a BridgeNews survey of brokers and analysts. The AGA report will be released after 1400 ET Wednesday. Market sources indicated a number toward the lower end of the range should be fairly neutral while a number in the 200s could support another strong rally. "I think the AGAs won't hurt, but I think the market will go up anyway," the broker said. "I don't think we need the report, but I think it will confirm what we already know."
Mr Gresham
(01/02/01; 23:32:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 44908)
"The Day the NASDAQ Died"
http://www.itulip.com/NASDAQdied.htm
"So bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
...
Did you buy stocks you never heard of?
Q COM at 150 or above?
'Cos your plumber told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? ..."
Good work, Sean Brady and Tom Kearney! Parody may not be the highest form of art, but my DNA molecules think copying is just a fine idea!
Old Yeller
(01/02/01; 23:25:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44907)
Bill HR4541
Good evening,all.
Tumultous day,quite a start to the new "trading"year.
I was quite interested/concerned about Bill HR4541,the commodity futures modernization act of 2000.It seems to have dropped off the radar screen of late.
If anyone is aware of any new developments,I would appreciate the update.
Black Blade
(01/02/01; 23:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 44906)
RE: Journeyman and Castellini Interview
I saw that interview. He was quite right about most of that. Matt Simmons of Simmons & Company International has said much the same except that there is the possibility of many dying from the extreme temperatures. Right now, the only thing that can stop that scenario is warmer temperatures. Forecasts of warmer temperatures resulted in a drop of over a dollar on NG prices today. If we make OK this winter, then all I can say is that we dodged a bullet and are only delaying the inevitable. In the CNBC interview, Mr. Castellini said that increased drilling would occur now. OOPS! Sorry Charlie, but where are the NG producers going to get the necessary drilling rigs? Nabors Industries (NBR) is scavenging the junkyards for bits and pieces of old drill rigs so they can slap together something resembling a drill rig. The drill rig manufacturers went outta business years ago when the price of petroleum cratered. They went tits up. And how about experienced drill crews? They aren't many left. They moved on to more stable careers. The companies don't pay squat for drill crews. They have been reduced to recruiting crews from the ranks of recently released felons. If not this year, then for certain next year looks like quite an adventure. Another reason for the shortfall – the companies that require NG as a raw material can't stop production indefinitely. Also, what happens if summer heat has people firing up the AC? The power plants will be burning NG all summer long, and more NG power plants will be coming on line.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/02/01; 22:54:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44905)
RE: Knallgold and Harmony
Harmony (HGMCY) inherited a hedge book when they purchased Randfontein. They have since unwound that position. The recent purchases from AngloGold (AU) look to have come off without a hitch. You are apparently referring to some speculation by a couple of minor gold enthusiasts named David McKay & Tim Wood who occasionally write articles about mining companies for the web site MiningWeb.com. They are frequently off the mark. Harmony's main selling point is that they are unhedged. If they were to change that philosophy, then they would lose the loyalty of virtually every one of their shareholders. The shareholders would rather they not purchase any additional properties if there were a requirement to hedge. Otherwise, why not purchase shares of the hedge-fund AngloGold with its low PE and nearly 9.3% dividend yield? Besides, they are doing quite well with good cash flow, excellent favorable rand-USD exchange rate, a pile of cash on hand, and low operating costs. If they were to hedge, then I and many others would drop the shares immediately.
Buena Fe
(01/02/01; 20:57:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 44904)
escapethematrix (1/2/2001; 16:41:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44888)
Welcome...........great handle!.........great find!
Thanks for sharing.
Cavan Man
(01/02/01; 19:23:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44903)
"the Stranger"
Thanks for helping me see thru the oily fog yesterday.
I know of a prominent pet food manufacturer that made a transition from a $10 lb bag to 8# at the same price. Sounds like 20% to me. Also, went shopping for some winter coats for next season and something dawned on me; the prices we pay for many, many garments are relatively stable; marked up and marked down as the retail game goes round and round. However, especially in the realm of outerwear, materials employed at these price points are marginal IMHO. The better made coats, hats, mittens etc are hard to find outside of a specialty shop where the prices are typically much higher.
YGM
(01/02/01; 18:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 44902)
Sierra & Panda...
Sierra, I also hope dearly for trends to change, but as Panda has reminded us...Little has changed since Christ the Man walked among us...The Money Mongers can change the Rules, the Country to exploit and the methods used but their "Greed" still reins supreme....The battle for truth and light will go on and on....And the Greed is like a Macabre Energizer Bunny with unlimited Fiat Air Power.....
Go Gold, Go GATA, Go Physical and bury it deep!....YGM
Pandagold
(1/2/2001; 18:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 44901)
YGM - The Message
Just before Christmas I posted an item which, for the sharp eyed, would have given them the strongest clue as to where the world's real problems lie.
It was a young Jewish man (so no anti-semitism here, anti-Zionism, perhaps) who was so incensed at the way His Father's house was being used for usury and things allied, and where money was being worshipped instead of His Father, that he entered the temple and drove out those that would defile the holy place.
Before this, the establishment had been prepared to tolerate His preachings to the masses. But TWO WEEKS after the physical action of actually interfering with their
money worshiping, lending, and wheeling and dealing, He was put to death.
Did His death end it? Not a bit. It is still the basic cause
of the world's problems. If you don't see it - you have a severe eye problem. As He said, "there are none so blind as those with eyes yet cannot see".
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/2/2001; 18:15:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 44900)
Good to see you, Trail Guide!
"...using much of the groundwork laid by MK's and Randy's solid efforts."
I echo your thoughts on the yeoman's work Michael has done on many fronts--largely unsung--on behalf of educating gold owners everywhere. And 'thank you' for the nod toward my own humble efforts at contribution toward fostering appropriate public gold and monetary awareness; but I assure you, compared to the foundation laid by the likes of you and ANOTHER, I am but a babe in the woods. Thank you again for the past efforts involved in sharing your unique insights and wisdom, and for selecting USAGOLD as your "media outlet".
Randy
Sierra Madre
(1/2/2001; 18:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 44899)
YGM....your post with gloomy outlook for 2010
All is not lost. Your outlook is based, it seems to me, on a prolongation of present trends. But those trends are going to change.
The best example of the future is Russia. The strictness of the USSR was followed by..corruption on a massive scale.
This is what awaits the world as a consequence of the debt orgy of the 90s.
The U.S. is a very highly controlled society (where the rulers want control) because the strong dollar permits the rulers to pay their enforcers.
That will come to an end when everyday inflation hits, with unemployment and the debt tsunami which will swamp the people. Everything from a parking ticket up will be "negotiable" with a "direct tax payment" to the enforcer. Especially if you have a gold or silver coin to offer.
That what you visualize is desired by the rulers, yes. But they will not be able to enforce such a dehumanization.
Corruption will be the oil that permits life to go on under dehumanizing legislation.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/2/2001; 17:54:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 44898)
For those who want to see the single Gulf currency news in print...
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20001230/wl/gulf_summit_1.html
Vist the URL given above
HEADLINE: Six Gulf Nations Hold Summit . . . Saturday, 30Dec00
MANAMA, Bahrain (AP) - Leaders of six Persian Gulf nations debated plans for a single currency Saturday during an annual summit that also was expected to focus on possible tariff and defense pacts.
+
The heads of the Gulf Cooperation Council states - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates - are trying to unify their currencies by 2003, two years earlier than originally planned.
TheStranger
(1/2/2001; 17:42:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 44897)
Inflation Update
I found the article below in the New York Times. How much longer do you think Americans will continue to believe this tripe about inflation not making a comeback?
January 2, 2001
What Keeps a Bottom Line Healthy? Weight Loss
By GREG WINTER
Perhaps shoppers did not notice as they scurried through supermarkets filling carts with potato chips and nachos for the holiday party, but their loads may have been a little lighter than in the past.
In an effort to offset rising production costs, Frito-Lay, the world's largest maker of salty snack foods, has begun putting fewer chips in bags of Fritos, Chee-tos and other well-known brands, while keeping the price the same.
A supermarket-size sack of Lay's potato chips has lost an ounce in the last month, or about 7.5 percent of its previous weight, but still costs $2.99. A 99-cent box of Cracker Jack has shed about 6.7 percent of its weight. And a $3.29 bag of Doritos has dropped almost 7 percent of its weight.
The packages themselves have also shrunk, ever so slightly, so they do not seem less full when customers grab them off the rack.
"It's a rip-off," said Jan Buttram, a playwright out shopping for a Christmas party at a Midtown Manhattan supermarket. "If I knew they were putting less in, I wouldn't buy it."
Industry insiders have a name for the practice: the weight-out. It is a subtle way of earning more from everyday products without scaring off price-conscious shoppers, and it is quite legal as long as the package accurately describes what is inside.
Makers of candy, coffee and tuna fish have all tried weight-outs, with varying success. But the practice had been relatively scarce since the mid-1990's, largely because the cost of raw materials was low enough that manufacturers could afford to forgo price increases and still preserve the bottom line.
Now, however, the cost of production is rising — expenses like energy, packaging, even ink. So weight-outs have slowly begun to resurface as a means of maintaining corporate profits without enraging customers, who are often none the wiser.
"We haven't encountered an environment like this in a long time," said Emanuel Goldman, a food and beverage analyst with ING Barings. "There's more resistance to raising prices than in the past, so you're going to get a lot more of these weight-outs."
For instance, while holding prices steady, the Perrier Group, a subsidiary of Nestlé, has just completed a switch to five gallons from six for home deliveries of Poland Spring bottled water, a swap it plans for water-cooler jugs of its Calistoga brand as well.
In September, Procter & Gamble scaled back the number of disposable diapers in its Luvs and Pampers packages by an average of 13 percent, while cutting prices only 7 percent. Company officials said the change, which, for example, comes out to eight fewer diapers in a jumbo pack that previously had 56, left parents with just enough diapers to get through the week, while providing Procter a price increase for each diaper sold.
Kimberly-Clark made a similar change to its Huggies diapers almost immediately after Procter & Gamble acted, prompting makers of many generic diapers to do the same.
"Everyone in the diaper industry is downsizing to the same count," said Tami Jones, a Procter spokeswoman.
With consumers increasingly resistant to paying more at the supermarket, conditioned by years of low inflation to expect stable prices on everyday items, some experts predict that other consumer product companies will soon follow suit.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/2/2001; 17:39:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 44896)
Happy New-Currency Year! Fed adds $10.5 billion to banking system
In two open market operations today, the Federal Reserve provided a temporary injection of over ten billion dollars to the nation's banking system.
Beginning with 27-day repurchase agreements, the Fed added an even three billion dollars, only to be followed shortly thereafter by a $7.505 billion addition via 3-day repos.
At the time, the fed funds market was fetching 6-11/16 percent, higher than the Fed's target by 3/16ths.
YGM
(1/2/2001; 17:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 44895)
Link to my previous post.....
http://www.murabitun.org/documents/economics/beyond.html
If Islamic Nations recognize EURO over US dollar you can bet they expect much greater Physical Gold backing to be given to the EURO.....Gold/EUROs' for OIL? If their so called Jihad against Usury were to escalate full swing it would be just GOLD for OIL....IMHO....YGM
Trail Guide
(1/2/2001; 17:27:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 44894)
one needed comment
escapethematrix (1/2/2001; 16:41:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44888)
Hello escapethematrix, thank you and welcome.
I was just sent today's postings, saw your piece and am very happy you found this item. It's good that this is public now. It is my intent to engage the direction of your post along with using much of the groundwork laid by MK's and Randy's solid efforts. Truly, these men have seen through the fog for some long time. This year that fog should clear for all to see. If only I had more time and energy. But, it shall be done.
A trail walk is coming, oh yes, it's coming! (smile)
TrailGuide
YGM
(1/2/2001; 17:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 44893)
escapethematrix.......Here is the typical Islamic Attitude to Banks & Gold
ALL.....please read at least, second last paragraph.....
SECOND SPEAKER
SIDI UMAR IBRAHIM VADILLO
We are going to start with some Qur'an (from the sura of al--Bakarah) about this matter of riba' (usury):
In the Name of Allah, The Merciful, The Conpasionate:
"Those who devour usury will not arise except as he arises whom Satan has confounded with his touch; this is because they say trade is only like usury. But Allah has permitted trade and forbidden usury.
Those who after receiving admonition from their Lord desist, shall be pardoned for the past; their case is for Allah (to judge). But those who repeat (the offence) are Companions of the Fire; they will abide therein.
Allah will deprive usury of all blessing, but will give increase for deeds of sadaqa: for He loves not creatures ungrateful and bad.
Those who believe and do deeds of goodness and establish prayer and pay the zakat will have their reward with their Lord:
there shall be no fear on them nor shall they sorrow.
O you who believe! Fear Allah and give up what remains of your demand for usury, if you are indeed believers.
If you do not, take notice of war from Allah and His Messenger:
But if you turn back you shall have your capital sums: deal not unjustly and you shall not be dealt with unjustly."
QURAN: 2, 275-279.
I would like to start with a definitive affirmation: only the sufi can break with usury. I say this because only the sufi truly understands that whatever stops him from reaching his Lord must be an illusion. Whatever stops me from getting rid of usury is a self-created illusion. The sufi does not waste time fighting with this illusion, like the economists do -including the so-called "islamic economists"-, he simply ignores it.
Kufr is a system that weakens people. The economical system is a disaster for the people, internally and externally. Our job is not to fight the economical system but to get out of it before its disaster falls on top of us. By getting out of it you are also actively helping in its collapse. In order to do this we have to look at things in a different way: think differently and behave differently. In this, the sufi is the opposite of the economic man. The economic man -the man who lives within the patterns given by the economical system- is trained to think as the absolute observer (subject) who looks out at the world (object). This is the foundation of traditional western philosophy in which modern sciences and economics are based. Within this basis, the economical man thinks that usury is an economical problem with some economical answers. He may question, how can I fight the problem of usury? In this way of questioning it is assumed that usury is something over there, while the person questioning is in plastic bubble isolated from it, but this is not how things are. The questioner is actively participating in usury, what he may consider a problem, and yet, he is part of the problem. He is the problem. Without this recognition you will be fighting your own illusion.
This recognition has an explanation in the knowledge of Ihsan by which we can understand that we are not the observers of the world, we are not the measurers of the world but we are being observed. Allah is observing us. He is the Measurer, not us. Only on this basis can we understand our responsibility, rather than escape from it. Only thus we can become masters of our condition, rather than slaves of our condition.
We understand that nothing stops us from getting rid of usurious practice except ourselves. Then the question "How to fight usury?" should be replaced by "How should we change our behaviour so that we do not need usury anymore?" If we think in this way we are in a better position to suggest proper answers. Nowadays our own behaviour demands the existence of the banks and their monetary system. Therefore if we get rid of the usurious banks but continue to behave in the same way, we will end up again creating a bank. Nothing will change if we call it an "islamic bank". We have to change our behaviour. To do that we have to think differently. And to think differently we have to deny that the main characteristic of man is an economic characteristic. We are not economic units.
We deny what Islam denies. We deny the usurious practices of the modern economy and we deny the way of thinking they call Economics. We deny the banking system and its system of paper-money. We deny the administrative nature of the state.
Paper-money was created by the banks and was first made legal currency only about 200 years ago. Paper-money is not money under Islamic Law. The first condition for any merchandise to be acepted as money is that it has to be commonly accepted. Imam Malik, peace be upon him, defined money in this way:
money is any merchandise commonly accepted as a medium of exchange. Money can be any merchandise as long as it is commonly accepted. When the people were free they (almost) always chose gold and silver. On the other hand the value of paper-money is based on its being imposed on its people by law. Thus you are forced to use dollars in the United States, pesetas in Spain, so-called 'dirhams' in Marocco, francs in France, etc. Many people have already shown that this system of money is a form of cheating.
The modern state is not a structure acceptable in Islam. Islam is based on government by the Law of Allah. The Law of Allah guarantees the right to private ownership of wealth. The state is based on taxation (of trade and wealth) and administration. Economics is the science of the administration of the state. On the other hand, there are no state-taxes in Islam for the free man. Therefore, there is no administration. There is no state. The role of Muslim government is not administration. The only tax in Islam is the zakat, which is collected and distributed in 24 hours among already determined categories of people. Zakat cannot be confused with the state-taxation. The modern state is based on the constitution of the French Revolution, which guarantees the power to impose paper-money (debt-money) and tax its people. Therefore there is no such a thing as 'Islamic state' there is only Islamic Government. It should not be forgotten that in Europe where the modern state was born, many europeans have died attempting to destroy this form of tyranny.
We declare the end of economics based in two affirmations:
commerce without usury, and government without state.
We want to finish with the economics-religion. We have been told that you cannot break this system. But I can tell you that to break this system is easy because is based on illusion. The difficulty is to remain any longer in this system. We have to look at things differently. Let us move out of the economic illusion and look at how things were understood before, within our Islamic tradition.
We go to the "Muwatta" of Imam Malik (the first formulation of Islamic Law) and we look up the book of economics (what some people call iqtisad) and we find that there is not such a thing. What we find is the book of commercial transaction and the book of qirad. This is in itself a discovery. In Islamic Law, justice is to be pursued in the transaction itself. This is ignored by economics that looks at the efficiency of trade as a whole. We say that Justice is the best guarantee of efficiency. We say: "Truth is our Protection". Hasbunallahu wa ni'mal wakil (Allah is enough for me and He is the best of guides). While the economists say: "If it functions efficiently, it is good". The book of qirad introduces us to a complete new landscape that will help us to reconstruct the basis of what became the most advanced and sophisticated formulation of trade throughout the world without usury.
The qirad contract was commonly used in the early times. In its Islamic formulation it transformed, and almost revolutionized trade not only in Muslim lands but also outside it. The formulation of qirad allowed the society to invest its resources, in the context of Equity, rather than being in the ignorance of usurious contracts. Qirad and partnership (they are the two basic formulations of business contract) made finance accesible to everybody without the necessity of an institution of finance (banks or similar). The qirad is not a type of banking practice as it is suggested by 'islamic banking'. Qirad and banking are fundamentally different to the extend that one replace each other. They cannot co-exist. Banking needs a particular usurious environment, namely the imposition of paper-money and kafir law to protect it against popular fury. Qirad needs free people who want justice. Banking, including 'islamic banking', is based on a lie: usury is only like trade. Qirad is based in the practice in the sunna of the Prophet, peace be upon him. Banking institutionalises investment through the bank. In qirad, investment is carried out organically -everybody with everybody- without any central institution. Now we will study the nature of the business contracts in Islamic Law so that we will be able to actively suggest ways of getting out of the banking trap.
Qirad and partnership are guaranteed protection for tall the parties in the contract and they cannot be transformed into banking. The banks hold the money like a monopoly (by means of the permanent devaluation of paper-money, created by them!) and then they distribute it, not to the best business but to the best collateral. It does not matter if your business project is a complete disaster; if you have collateral they will lend you their money. Qirad is completely different because only if you are honest and your business is good you will have investors, but the stipulation of any collateral is null in this kind of contract. With the banks their money is directed to the people who have enough level of wealth. With qirad, investment follows the natural tendency of the honesty and the good business of the community. Banking imposes, through its monopoly of paper-money, their own conditions of self-protection.
The qirad is a protection for agents as well as for investors. It is a protection for the agent because in a qirad contract the agent will share according to the results of the business. In the usurious contract the agent is tied to a fixed interest before he knows the results of the business. Thus the bank is not investing money but renting money, although money cannot be rented (like a house or a car). In qirad, if the business of the agent has difficulties the investors will want to help him rather than expropriate him as the banks do. The qirad also is a protection for the investor because he knows what he is investing in and it is guaranteed that the totality of the results of the business will be shared. In the usurious system the investor has two choices: either 'rents' his money at the fixed interest offered by the banks and other financial institutions or he has to 'invest' his money at a 'variable interest' offered by the corrupt system of shares (Stock Exchange). The shares guarantee that you cannot decide on 'your' business -unless you are a majority owner-, therefore you do not know what you are investing in, neither do you know who is effectively going to be running the business. Through this form of 'investment' the majority owners can reinvest your own profit without your consultation, in whatever way they like. What is left for you is called dividends, but this is really like interest. We should recall this to the criminals of the 'islamic bank'. The contract of partnership guarantees the ownership of all the co-owners rather than only those who hold the majority of the shares. 'Majority ownership' of the shares is irrelevant in the contract of partnership. All the investors are equally protected.
Banking can only happen where there is lack of trust. Qirad can only happen in a community where trust is exalted, because the contract of qirad itself calls for this trust. In effect the qirad gathers people while the banks divide people. By the progressive implementation of Islamic Law we gain the trust that we have lost, which is what we need to overcome the banking trap. Every time we behave within the sunna of the Prophet, peace be upon him, Allah makes it easier for us, in the inward and in the outward. Thus we realise that we are free in Allah. To implement qirad and partnership, it is in our hands by Allah. Whoever denies this or says that this is not possible, is worshipping other-than-Allah, he is trapped in his own illusion. He is a slave and he is paralysed for fear of his own illusion. This fear and submission to usurious behaviour go together.
We are calling for a free man who is free to behave within our Law. We will create a differently shaped society. The society where the qirad was normal was a different society without banks or necessity of banks. It was a society with agents, not banks but agents. The agents brought the people together, without themselves forming an institution. They brought this man with this other man to make a business. The agent is like the old woman in the village who says this young man can marry this young woman and so arranges marriages. Without her some marriages would never have happened. The agents are there in the middle of the society, forming an organic part of it, bringing people they know together and not necessarily for money. The wealth of the agent is his honesty and good reputation. He competes in honesty with the others. The best of them is the one who is more honest, therefore more people will trust him with their wealth. Then he does not need to go to the people but people come to him.
We want to produce agents and put them back in the society. Their very first political role is to bring trust again to the people in such a way that is made clear that we do not need the banks. How can we produce these agents? We have to educate them in the Law of Trade, which is very simple, although these people of 'islamic economics' want to make it complicated. We strongly denounce this thing called "islamic economics" as a form of confusing people, and we denounce their product the so-called "islamic bank" as an attempt to lure some Muslims into the banking system, while destroying their communities. The agent thus takes on a political role rather than an economical role. He does not regard himself as a business or economical unit, but rather like a doctor who is curing the sickness of a society. His job is not to make a business. His business is to give a remedy to the usurious sickness by using our halal forms of business and not their usurious forms. Living and thinking like an economical man is a sickness in itself, usury is its evident effect.
Knowledge of Allah is what prevents the agent from being a robot like the 'economic man'. This is a time where there are people, some of them Muslims, who regard themselves as being unemployed. 'Unemployment or employment' is economic conditioning. The Muslim does not regard himself within these categories. We are above that because we have knowledge. The sufis use this metaphor to explain knowledge; "Man is like an ant who is so close to the carpet that he cannot see the design. Knowlege is elevation from the carpet, and the carpet is dunya. The person who is 'unemployed/employed' is spiritually so close to the carpet that either he finds himself totally useless or in need of the salary in some business of the usurious system. All business today are usurious on their bases because they all are forced to deal with usurious paper-money, which is banking-money. He knows that the bank for instance is no good, but he thinks he has no better choice. He works for the state, although he knows the state is criminal. Even the businessman profiting within the usurious frame is a slave. All these people have failed to understand the nature of dunya and they are slaves of it. The way out lies in Islam. We need the most pure Islam.
The opposite of the slave-economic man is the man who, trusting Allah, has become free from his own illusion. By giving up dunya he has gained all of dunya. The sufi says: "If you run after dunya, dunya runs in front of you. But if you turn your face and run to Allah, dunya will run after you". This is the law of existence, but the laws of economics are not the laws of existence, they are only madness. If you understand this then you can understand your role within existence. Existence has no reality in itself, it is only a means for you to recognise Allah.
Then, how can you change your perspective? The sufi says:
by generosity and by breaking your habits (changing, travelling). The man who knows is not limited by what is his or what he knows. He embraces all property and all knowledge. If he wants to make a business, he asks the means from the people who has them, just as he takes the knowledge from the people who knows. They are waiting for him. And if he is of the best, the people will go to him. The Messenger of Allah, peace be upon him, said that if you really knew, you would be like the birds who go with their stomachs empty in the morning and come back with them full in the evening. This knowledge makes people free to get out and destroy the usurious system.
The agent who is servant to the community has all the community available to him. He can implement qirad and partnership while cleaning the market of usurious practice. He finds the means from the people who have it and knowledge from the people who know. These people are waiting to use what they have. The agent who wants to make a business relating to shoes, for instance, will naturally will find finance more likely from the people who can assess better if the effort and the investment is worthy or not. They may be able to suggest even better ways to go about it. Thus the people of the same profession get bound together spontaneously when there are no banks. This is how the original guilds come to existence. The spontaneous creation of guilds and other types of association is part of the new landscape of the market that does not need usury.
Abandoning usury is the command of Allah to the believers. And it is in our hands to abandon it progressively. First, we need to gather the community together. We can do that by educating agents who will in turn glue the community together by the means of generous social behaviour and increasing our personal relations within Islamic business contracts. This first stage towards the Islamic Market we call the Qirad Market. As soon as we, the community, have grown in loyalty and trust among each other and enough wealth is circulating among ourselves, then we can move to the second stage.
The second stage is what we call the White Market where people have decided to use a different medium of exchange-other than paper-money-. It is like a Black Market except with clean money. Probably we will mint and put in circulation gold and silver coins for the exchange. We sell the paper-money and buy gold and we put the gold in our market. It is in our hands to substitute more and more paper-money for gold and silver. We can use gold and silver or anything else. This flexibility will impede the kafir from manipulating our market by forcing the prices of gold or silver up and down, because we can change from one medium of exchange to any other according to our own convenience as long as we avoid paper-money. We can also stop paying any tax to the criminal state, because at that point with our mutual trust we can hide our transaction by the simply way of not reporting it to the state. The White Market is defined as the market where we are able to have our own money (real money) and where we can avoid state taxation.
Within this situation we can gain enough strength for our amir to declare and carry out the punishment according to the Islamic Law to the people who continue cheating, while before we can only exclude them from our market. At this point we can declare an Islamic Market where no form of usury will be allowed.
If we do not abandon all usurious practice, Allah has warned us of war from Him and His Messenger, peace be upon him. This reminds us of the second part of our job. We have to construct an Islamic Market and actively we have to destroy the usurious system. The usurious system has became a system of power-control ruled by the jews over the nation states. It is enormously complex but it is enormously fragile. It is sustained in the illusion of its power. The moment people realise that the monster is really nothing, it will be destroyed. Our job here is to break the idols: burn the paper-money or print it in enormous amounts, introduce computer virus in the banking nexus, sabotage their information records, boost the figures, erase the debts, etc. Money is today electronic impulses, what can be more fragile than that? These will inevitably become the practice of the future.
It is, by Allah, in the hands of the Muslims. The Jihad of our time is to abolish usury. This is what we, the Murabitun, are doing. This is the easy way and the path of success. Success belongs to Allah.
As-Salaam-Alaikum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pandagold
(1/2/2001; 17:16:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 44892)
Good or Bad Omen?
Jon Kaplan (the cockeyed gold optimist of "Goldmining Outlook")has finally thrown in the towel and sold all his gold shares - so he declares today in his Kaplan Corner.
He was claiming we should buy all we can at these 'knock-down' prices only a few weeks ago.
I never thought I would see the day. He would NEVER accept that gold is being manipulated - we had many verbal 'fights' on the subject.
Boxman
(1/2/2001; 17:08:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 44891)
Funny Money - how do they pay their taxes?
http://www.foxnews.com/etcetera/101600/currency.sml
Great stuff.
<<NEW YORK — The money Paul Glover uses at the local hardware store in Ithaca, N.Y., doesn't have any dead presidents on it.>>
Gotta go, my beloved KY Wildcats are tipping it off against the Louisville Cardinals.
Mike
Boxman
(1/2/2001; 16:57:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 44890)
See #8 in my last post#44887
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?section=news&news_id=reu-n02633493&feed=reu&date=20010102&cat=INDUSTRY
That didn't take long. There are many energy sucking giants on this little planet, but by years end, me thinks that there will be less of them.
<<MONTERREY, Mexico, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Mexican steelmaker Hylsamex said on Tuesday that it closed the last of its three sponge-iron plants because of the high cost of natural gas.>>
Mike
Hi-Hat
(1/2/2001; 16:50:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 44889)
escapethematrix
Serious is, as Serious does.
escapethematrix
(1/2/2001; 16:41:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44888)
USA Today Blurb.........
Greetings and salutations to all posters and lurkers of the best Gold site on the entire Net........Many thanks to everybody for all the great posts, with a special thanks to FOA/Trailguide for sharing his monumental mental acumen with all of us.....Anyway, I nearly spewed out my coffee this morning as I read.......
GULF COUNTRIES TO CREATE COMMON CURRENCY
Leaders of six oil-rich states Sunday approved steps to issue a unified currency. The move is part of a plan by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates for a regional currency and a unified trade zone.
It is designed to help speed up free-trade talks with the regions biggest trading partner, the European Union. Currencies of all the countries, with the exception of Kuwait, are pegged to the U.S. Dollar.
As the old song goes...."Signs, signs, everywhere are signs"........I thought I had read somewhere that top EU officials were in the Mid-East over the weekend....2001 is off to a Golden start....
Boxman
(1/2/2001; 16:32:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 44887)
Is this any way to start a millennium?
1) Stock market gets hammered -
http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/pf/businessnews/usmarket/a/USStockMarkets
2) National association of purchasing managers comes out with rotten numbers-See seventh paragraph -
<<Investors were whacked with more signs of an economic pullback. The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) said its purchasing managers' index, a gauge of manufacturing across the United States, tumbled to 43.7, its lowest reading since April 1991, from 47.7 in November. Economists in a recent Reuters survey had forecast the index to fall to 47.0>>
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010102/bs/markets_stocks_dc_1140.html
3) Mideast sabre rattling - Barak to IDF: Prepare for war -
http://cgis.jpost.com/cgi-bin/LinkLog/linklog.cgi?link=www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/01/02/News/News.18684.html&title=Barak+to+IDF%3A+Prepare+for+war&source=frontpage
4)Gold price gets mugged at NY open (What's new?)- Darnest graph that I have seen in a while.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
5) Further drawdowns in natural gas inventories - I did find the first paragraph somewhat of an understatement.
http://qv3.com/policypete/policypete.htm
6) Manufacturing lowest in almost 10 years - The statement about the service sector (Boy, there's some high paying jobs) seems to be a blatant attempt to soft peddle this problem)
<<- U.S. manufacturing activity fell for the fifth straight month in December, reaching its lowest level in almost a decade, a new report by the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) showed on Tuesday.>>
7)Oil prices surge into new year -
OPEC very likely to reduce production, and summer driving demand not far off -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1096000/1096916.stm
8) Bankruptcies abound. LTV just being the latest -
<<The LTV Corporation (NYSE: LTV) today
said that it is considering filing voluntary Chapter 11 petitions tomorrow,
December 29, 2000 in federal court in Youngstown, Ohio. The decision whether
to file will be made by the LTV Board of Directors later today.>>
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/liststory?516787^769
8)Refinery cuts back on production, due to high energy costs.-
Sorry, I couldn't find a link. It is on Downstreamers Forum.
http://pub38.ezboard.com/bdownstreamventures
This is not todays news, but I think we may see more and more of this in the months ahead.
<<NEW YORK -- Exxon Mobil, the No.1 U.S. oil company, said yesterday it has cut production at its 56,000-barrel-per-day Billings, Mont., refinery due to "sky-high" electricity costs.
"We've cut back our runs at the refinery as a result of sky-high power bills," said a spokeswoman.
The company would not say how much it has limited its output at the refinery, which produces mostly for local usage. Industry sources said other refiners in Wyoming and Idaho were also cutting production due to high electricity costs, but company officials were not available for comment.>>
There are many things to occupy ones mind, (providing you lean to the doomer mentality, as I seem to be these days)
nuclear weapons in the Middle East, biological warnings from our government, corporate and personal debt. Oh well, I think this enough for one day.
Oh, did I mention that gold got raped at the NY open? Must have been because of all of the good news, globally.
PS: I slept better, and was more relaxed before Russia became a third world country, and the "Wall" came down.
PSS: I did hear some good news today, although it appears to be a rumor as of the moment, and that is that Saddam so Insane suffered a stroke. I hope that the part of his brain that stores the "launch those babies" order is fried.
Like someone here once said, Gold, get you some.
Mike
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/2/2001; 16:17:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 44886)
Tower commentary on today's Bridge News "NY Precious Metals Review"
"New York--Jan. 2--COMEX Feb gold futures, defying the usual market guidance
of the euro and equities, tumbled Tuesday to their lowest level in a month as
weak longs dumped the metal on technical pressures and several rounds of sell
stops. Feb settled down $3.6 at $270.0 an ounce after hitting a low of $269.0
late in the session."
From my view here in The Tower, I would say that it was the dumping of February futures contracts that caused the pricing downdraft, NOT the dumping of metal as indicated in this report. There is a difference. As only fiduciary representations of wealth, such things as stocks, currency, or derivatives contracts may at times undergo a crisis of confidence, suffering sharp valuation declines.
COMEX gold futures contracts, we must remember, are not hard assets. Rather, they are a leveraged wager on the "sentiment direction" of these very same wagers, determined by the bettors' demand to enter or exit these wagers, NOT the demands on the metal itself. Such is the farce (or blessing if you are buying metal) of the current market method for price discovery for gold.
The article seemed at a loss to explain how an exit of paper gold positions might be quite natural as confidence wanes in paper assets in the wake of floundering stocks after a year of financial punishment in "non-tangible" assets. Again, a futures contract is not a tangible asset. It is not gold, it is just a highly structured gentleman's agreement with rules that are subject to change to favor the "house" as needed. The article said:
--------
"Gold players were left scratching their heads on the first trading session
of the year, as the euro was stronger Tuesday and equities much weaker, market
movements that typically would spur higher gold prices.
While dealers and analysts appeared to have no obvious explanation for the
move, most linked it to much weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data....
""It seems like the New Year has brought us nothing but highly confusing
markets," said Kaplan. "One would have thought that the currencies would be
dominating the action. Today is an extreme aberration."
A variety of sellers were seen Tuesday, including the funds and the trade,
with a large cluster of stops taken out at $270.30, said dealers.
One trader said Tuesday's action suggests that while gold has been
following movements in the currencies lately, the dollar may not be a long-term
determinant of gold prices. "On a long-term basis, it may be nothing to hold a
hat on," he said."
---------
While the traders scratch their heads, here at USAGOLD we have for a long time offered a fresh perspective on the nature of these markets in helping to paint a picture of the road ahead. Today seems a good opportunity to repost this good articulation of thoughts that were offered here on a Friday evening my by good friend, MK. It was a fine encapsulation, and something you should consider passing along to your friends and family. Randy
*****
[BEGIN repost]
USAGOLD (12/15/2000; 9:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 43784)
A Note on the Nature of Gold Price Movements. . . .
Where does it say that gold has to react tit for tat to the crumbling dollar? Though gold is regarded as money; it is not used at the moment as currency. Whereas there is a direct relationship between the dollar and the euro in forex markets, there is no such arrangement between gold and the dollar. If gold should go up 1% would the the dollar go down 1%? Not likely, since such a thing has not happened except by pure accident since the switchover to pure fiat money in the early 1970s. Gold broke out in the 1970s when the cartel controlling its dollar price threw in the towel. Why did they throw in the towel? Because the cartel -- in those days known as the London Gold Pool (in which the United States and UK were the primary players) -- refused (or was unable) to supply gold to the DeGaulle led continental Europeans at $35.
Go back and look at the record of gold flows. You will see gold leaving the U.S. Treasury and winding up on the balance sheets of France, Holland, Germany, Italy, et al. Gold, by the way, that for most part remains on those balance sheets today despite the claims to the contrary by the financial press. The London Gold Pool finally gave up lest all the U.S. gold would have wound up in Europe. The cartel was broken. The U.S. then devalued the dollar first in 1971 -- under a Republican I might add -- and then again in 1973. Gold, set free from the Pool went to $200 by 1974, retreated under the strain of IMF and U.S. gold sales through 1976, then resumed its climb after that intervention failed as well (to hold the price between $100 and $150). The gold/dollar correction concluded in the late 1970s at prices quoted so many times I won't quote them again. Make no mistake about it though, the move in the 1970s was nothing more than a correction resulting from the pent up price pressures built up during the London Gold Pool days.
Sound familiar? Do these echoes of the past resonate now?
They should! Though the circumstances and instruments have changed, the effect has remained the same. Gold is being managed covertly now -- as circumstances allow. (Though this time around for a dual purpose, i.e. to protect the gold carry trade as well as the international reputation of the dollar.) In the 1960s gold was being managed overtly -- as circumstances allowed.
I continue to believe that buying gold at $270 today is the equivalent of buying it at $35 in the 1960s, because this cartel will be broken as well and it will be broken by relentless and constant physical demand. Should any in the international scheme of things break ranks -- the Gulf, Japan, Europe -- and begin to sell bonds for gold, that would hasten the push by physical and drive the cartel to the wall in short order. I doubt it will be made public should the move to gold occur; it will just be done.
All the comparisons we see between then and now, all the deja vu's (Energy problems. Worldwide currency turmoil. Money printing. Etc.) are not an accident, but the products of a repetition of the money mistakes of the past. As gold was the messenger needing to be controlled then for political reasons, so it is now (with a twist, i.e. the gold carry trade). The only question is when will the towel fly out of our opponents corner and into the middle of the ring. When it occurs, my belief is that the move will be explosive as it was in the last go around, and as you can see by my constant (and annoying) hinting, bear consequences alluded to here often by our friend, FOA.
What is astonishing to me in discussions with all sorts of people both in my public and private life, how many do not understand that economic cycles play out over a very long period of time. Equity market Bulls can last 10 to 15 years; so can equity market Bears. Gold market Bulls can last 10 to 15 years; so can gold market bears. In my view, the long term paper bull is now ending; the long term gold bull is now beginning.
Too often, we gold advocates labor for understanding using the analytical framework of our opponents. They tell us that this is reality. These are the relationships we should sanction as proofs, when in fact they have little to do with reality. For years, we had to endure the constant mantra from the financial press and the gold shorts that the central banks were on the verge of selling all their gold. It took us awhile to realize that it was the same institutions shorting gold that were telling these tales and they were doing it for a reason (e.g.,the preservation of their very expensive financial hides). That still goes on today.
In fact I caught another whiff of it this morning. Now we are being told that gold hasn't moved against the tanking dollar, therefore gold should be abandoned as a hedge against the potential for another major dollar devaluation. I say, "Absurd. Rubbish. Just what I would expect from a group so immersed in gold short positions that there may not be a way out."
Though there is no doubt that any devaluation in the dollar will affect the price of gold, there is nothing that says that that price movement would be in lock step. I see this morning that others are saying that the Bush administration will move to end the "strong dollar policy." If so, such a policy change will have enormous implications. It is tantamount to what we used to call devaluation.
My Christmas Message: Be patient. Keep an ear to the rail. Develop a philosophy and carry it with you through all your intellectual musings and wanderings. Rely on it much like an article of Faith. This will be your foundation and source of portfolio strength. Continue to acquire physical gold in an orderly fashion. It will be your saving grace.
[END of repost]
YGM
(1/2/2001; 15:55:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44885)
Left Off the 2010 News List....
http://www.sightings.com/general6/cowup.htm
Prions in Cattle and Food chain thru feeding animal protein to animals and fertilizing with human waste is a subject yet to become news for most....I don't even want to think of 2010 and BSE.....Aids will pale by comparison...IMHO
Like the Ad said..."You Can't Fool w/ Mother Nature"..YGM
canamami
(1/2/2001; 15:46:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44884)
An institutional investor which believes in gold (at least gold shares)
I am not espousing or promoting this bank/trust company, or the gold mining company, but merely illustrating that there are institutional investors which believe gold has a future. Here is the news release:
ARIZONA STAR RESOURCE CORP ("AZS-V;AZSRF-L") - Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust Limited Acquires Arizona Star Shares
Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust Limited, Attention: Mr. Anscele Payne, Managing Director, P.O.B. 982, Musson Building, 3rd Floor, Hincks Street, Bridgetown, Barbados, W.I., acquired through a privately negotiated transaction ownership and control over 3,000,000 common shares of Arizona Star Resource Corp. (the "Company"). Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust Limited, together with any person acting jointly or in concert, now has ownership, control or direction over an aggregate of 12,036,100 common shares (representing approximately 30.31% of the total outstanding common shares) of the Company. Included in these are 20,000 common shares of the Company owned by an employee benefit plan of an affiliate of Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust Limited.
Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust Limited has purchased the shares for investment, and it does not presently have any intention of making additional investments in or dispositions of securities of the Company in the future, but may do so, depending on price, availability and general market conditions. Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust Limited currently intends to remain a passive investor in the Company, and not to influence control or direction of management of the Company, although it may seek board representation. TEL: 1-246-436-9756/7/8
Anscele Payne, Managing Director FAX: 1-246-228-1156
Pan Atlantic Bank & Trust Limited E-Mail: pabt@caribsurf.com
YGM
(1/2/2001; 15:38:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 44883)
Pandagold....
Possible News Stories for 2010..........??
*US Gov't passes laws restricting Gold and Precious Metal ownership to E-Trade accounts.
*UN dictates all Member Nations to focus on control of Black Marketing in Cash and Gold/Silver for goods.
*BIS, World Bank, IMF, US Fed Reserve, Vatican,and many other intitutions support Electronic Money laws and want all Gold and Silver to be held in trust accounts by proper
authorities.
*Gun control laws thru late 90's and early 2000 seemingly having little to no effect on crime rates. Now only the
"Bad Guys" have guns.
*The Market Crash of 2001 seems to be taking years to rebound as it did back in 1929. (25 years for it then to return to full value)
*Prophets and Seers alike watching very closely as Mallachy's last predicted Pope takes over.
*Ex-President Clinton dying of Aids related complications in Jail. Hillary doesn't want to visit and prefers to stay in her solitary confinement cell. More treason/murder charges still pending against both Clintons.
*US Treasury Agents to-date have recovered over 1000 tonnes of Gold and Silver Bullion and Coinage buried by illegal hoarders....Agents claim the new "Hand Held Ground Penetrating Radar Metal Detectors" are thru widespread use locating backyard caches in 10% of property searches. Also finding large stores of weaponry and Ammo...Story developing
*Environmentalists now worry continuing energy crisis is turning World forests into wastelands as people continue to ignore laws restricting tree cutting on private property and public lands. Expecting near term restrictions on wood burning stoves thru out USA and Canada.
*Blah, Blah, Blah.....Story Developing!!!
***I'll leave the guesswork as to War, Plague and the rest of the scenario for 2010 to somebody else.....YGM.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/2/2001; 15:21:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 44882)
Pandagold (usagold.com msg#: 44878) . . . "End of cash"
Excellent article. I can think of very few real-world examples that so clearly demonstrate to thinking men that "wealth" and "currency" are NOT to be confused and equated, as they are so clearly not the same thing. One need only to imagine a lost confidence (as we have seen in the purchasing power of "dot.com stock" as a form of intermediate quasi-currency, or the failure of many third-word currencies) or a power outage to render a person's savings into nothing at all. In truth, as things currently stand there is not much separating paper from digital currency as proposed. Let us hope that most people with money to lose have not forgotten the timelessness and durability of hard assets to denominate/represent their accumulated worldly wealth.
Pandagold
(1/2/2001; 15:12:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 44881)
A re-posting
I have posted this before, I know, but eventually it will sink in.
"Dollar,Euro,Gold - the Three Cabilleros
We are in a transition from the dollar to the Euro (at least for some time). This should be obvious already to the discerning, but if it isn't, it will be as the new year progresses.
This is not Europe fighting the US. It was planned many moons ago (all part of the agenda).
It should be remembered that it is a transition from the old well-tried, to the new boy on the block. During any transition the situation is tenuous and sensitive. Also, because of the whole manipulated financial structure, we have a severe aggravated situation, that, if things went wrong, would topple the whole pack of cards.
If, once the dollar weakens, money were to flow into gold instead of the Euro we would have a worst case scenario, and this is why TPTB will enure that it does not.
Once the Euro is up and running, and steady on its feet, then, and only then, will the tight reins on gold be relaxed.
This, of course, does not mean that gold could not move some, but it is so far down at the moment - $10 would seem like a major event and get everyone excited. It could even go to $300 without doing much damage. But, as stated, there will be no major move (if ever) UNTIL THE EURO IS WELL ESTABLISHED. No one would be happier than I if it did, but it is not in the agenda.
R Powell
(1/2/2001; 15:04:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 44880)
How Bridgenews sees today decline
Everyone sees things a little differently. Take this for what it's worth- as educational or amusing. I offer it but no judgment of it.
Rich
[B] NY Precious Metals Review: Feb gold falls $3.6 on technicals
2-Jan-2001 20:58:48
By Darcy Keith, BridgeNews
New York--Jan. 2--COMEX Feb gold futures, defying the usual market guidance
of the euro and equities, tumbled Tuesday to their lowest level in a month as
weak longs dumped the metal on technical pressures and several rounds of sell
stops. Feb settled down $3.6 at $270.0 an ounce after hitting a low of $269.0
late in the session. Mar silver, pressured by gold's slide, settled down 4.0
cents at $4.595 after hitting a fresh contract low of $4.590.
* * *
Gold players were left scratching their heads on the first trading session
of the year, as the euro was stronger Tuesday and equities much weaker, market
movements that typically would spur higher gold prices.
While dealers and analysts appeared to have no obvious explanation for the
move, most linked it to much weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data
released at 1000 ET, prior to much of the heavy selling.
The National Association of Purchasing Management said its index of
economic activity was at 43.7 in December from 47.7 in November, much lower
than 47.0 that economists had forecast. The December reading was the lowest
since April 1991.
This key barometer of the health of the U.S. manufacturing economy was down
for the fifth month in a row. Technically, the manufacturing sector would be in
a recession if this index remains below 50.0 for two quarters or six straight
months. ( Story .4792 )
This, according to some dealers, spurred talk of deflation on trading
desks, a scenario which would certainly not help gold, sometimes used as a
hedge against inflation.
"Gold is really a very good barometer of deflation, and everybody,
including Greenspan, looks at deflation," commented one dealer.
Of course, gold did not benefit much from signs of inflation during the
first three quarters of last year, so why players are so concerned about
deflation leaves some question mark surrounding that theory.
Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Chicago,
suggested that one rationale is that the NAPM figures clearly point to a
recession, and if one assumes precious metals are industrial in nature and
dependent on economic growth, it would make sense that demand will be
weakening.
But Kaplan admits this rationale doesn't totally explain gold's move, given
that precious metals are not entirely industrial in nature and inflation
worries did little to spur buying interest last year.
"It seems like the New Year has brought us nothing but highly confusing
markets," said Kaplan. "One would have thought that the currencies would be
dominating the action. Today is an extreme aberration."
A variety of sellers were seen Tuesday, including the funds and the trade,
with a large cluster of stops taken out at $270.30, said dealers.
One trader said Tuesday's action suggests that while gold has been
following movements in the currencies lately, the dollar may not be a long-term
determinant of gold prices. "On a long-term basis, it may be nothing to hold a
hat on," he said.
The trader added that technical selling was a key factor Tuesday, as
several support lines were taken out.
Kaplan noted that gold slipped through support in the Feb contract at
$271.2 "like a hot knife in butter," and pegged support at $269.2, just above
Tuesday's low of $269.0. Next support is found at $268 and $265, said Kaplan.
Silver saw trade selling interest Tuesday, as prices came under pressure
from gold's weight. Silver's low Tuesday was its lowest level in 13 months on
continuation charts.
SETTLEMENT PRICES
--Feb gold (GCG1) at $270.0, dn $3.6; RANGE: $269.0-275.0
--Mar silver (SIH1) at $4.595, dn 4.0c; RANGE: $4.590-4.650
--Jan platinum (PLF1) at $608.9, dn $0.8; RANGE: $604.5-611.0
--Mar palladium (PAH1) at $968.5, up $14.05; RANGE: $964.0-968.5
SPOT PRECIOUS METALS PRICES:
New York 1514 ET London 1130 GMT Tokyo 0600 GMT
Gold(KRCGL) 271.20-271.80 273.25-273.75 272.75-273.25
Silver(KRCSL) 4.57-4.59 4.60-4.62 4.59-4.61
Platinum(KRCPL) 608.00-614.00 602.00-612.00 605.00-615.00
Palladium(KRCPA) 963.00-983.00 940.00-960.00 940.00-960.00 End
[Begin BridgeLinks]
Darcy Keith, BridgeNews, Tel: 212-372-7377
Send comments to metals@bridge.com
Click below for charts: Gold:
Media://analytics/pages::/cmd=us@?krcgl[1350MOVB]/VP Silver:
Media://analytics/pages::/cmd=us@?krcsl[1350MOVB]/VP Platinum:
Media://analytics/pages::/cmd=us@?krcpl[1350MOVB]/VP Palladium:
Media://analytics/pages::/cmd=us@?krcpa[1350MOVB]/VP Dlr/yen:
Media://analytics/pages::/cmd=$usdjpy[1350MOVB]/VP Quotes:
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For an intraday chart of active-contract gold, double-click:
Media://analytics/pages:active-gold-intraday:/cmd=us@gc.1[1099ID;3;2] For
an intraday chart of active-contract silver, double-click:
Media://analytics/pages:active-silver-intraday:/cmd=us@si.1[1099ID;3;2] For
an intraday chart of active-contract platinum, double-click:
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YGM
(1/2/2001; 14:54:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 44879)
Lots of EURO news links today......(scroll link)
http://www.americanfreedomnews.com/
EUROPEAN SUPERSTATE
Sweden wants EU to ‘harmonize’ tax laws throughout Europe
THE Tories are claiming to have more proof that Brussels is committed to a "superstate agenda". Francis Maude, shadow foreign secretary, said yesterday that plans to harmonize taxes were being actively promoted.
European leaders cheer Euro's newfound prosperity
European leaders celebrated the sudden revival of the single currency on the markets over the New Year, which raised the prospect of a successful switch to euro notes and coins next year.
Criminals counterfeiting euro currency
Criminals are planning to cash in on the launch of euro notes and coins, by flooding the Continent with fake currency, the head of an anti-fraud agency said last night.
Greece abandons national currency and surrenders to growing euro
Greece has become the twelfth country to join the European single currency, ditching its own currency, the drachma.
Euro is only EU success in 10 years says former German chancellor
Helmut Schmidt, the former German chancellor, yesterday attacked the European Union for having achieved nothing in the past 10 years except for the creation of the euro.
Sweden takes over presidency of European Union after ‘French fiasco’
Sweden has taken over the six-month presidency of the European Union, saying it plans to focus on three main issues - the EU's eastern expansion, new employment guidelines and environmental protection.
‘French fiasco’ comes to end as France turns EU presidency over to Sweden
France prepares to hand over management of the European Union to Sweden this week after a bungled turn in the rotating presidency that has dealt a heavy blow to French influence in Europe.
Libyan dictator says Great Britain is slowing down European superstate vision
Colonel Gaddafi will criticize Britain today for slowing the pace of European integration.
Pandagold
(1/2/2001; 14:52:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 44878)
End of cash
BEGINNING OF THE END FOR CASH
" It could prove to be the death knell of notes and coins.
Singapore is to phase in e-money and force all
businesses to accept it as legal tender by 2008.
Financial transactions will be made using money
Stored on computer chips.
Cash will be a thing of the past as money changes
hands electronically using digital pulses transferred
through mobile phones., hand held computers and even
watches.
A shopper will be able to point a mobile phone at an
item to register the price. The phone would check the
shopper's bank balance on the internet and deduct
the money from the account if it was told to buy the
item.
……………………."The physical notes and coins
will be a thing of the past "says Lo Siang Kok
currency director at Singapore's Board of Commissioners
of Currency. "There's no point in fighting technology"
Complete article by Wendy Vuvoska (Metro)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/2/2001; 14:39:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 44877)
Euro sentiment on the rise --ALSO-- "And Then There Were Twelve"
http://www.eubusiness.com/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=34870&d=101&h=240&f=56&dateformat=%25o%2520%25B%2520%25Y
HEADLINE: Euro being viewed more favourably
The oft' overlooked importance of 'grass roots'...
From the linked article: "The euro is making up some lost ground in public opinion according a survey released by Canal-Ipsos of France just before Christmas."
---
Additionally in euro news, the ESCB and its consolidated reserves were swollen futher over the holiday weekend as Greece officially joined the monetary union, setting aside the drachma as a legacy currency at the fixed rate of GDR340.750 per 1 euro. Euro notes and coins will replace the 12 national legacy currencies for use in circulation during the first few months of 2002.
Pandagold
(1/2/2001; 14:02:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 44876)
You misread me Journeyman
Nope! Not wrong. You have been duped by his rhetoric he uses to 'explain' his currency attacks', and soothe his conscience for the misery he causes. You have also misread my posting.
All governments have a screwed up currency (some worse than others). But the biggest of all is the US. Soros hit the Asian currencies after they had been lured into playing follow my leader (the US.)
This pre-planned attack by Soros( the Cabal's elite panzer division) brought down the Asian economies when they were at the most vunerable. Result - the assault troops moved in snapping up property, prime businesses - in particular financial institutions at knocked down prices with US monopoly money.
Meanwhile the dollar gets away with murder as it goes on a rampage. Why doesn't Soros punish the 'financial junkies' here? (rhetorical question)
Get wise my dear friend. See the whole picture. Is there a relationship between the Falklands war, the Gulf war, The Balkan war? Lets go farther back - the French Revolution, the Russian revolution - any connection? Search it out. There is a fine thread which runs through all these (and more) incidents. But we have been brained-washed into seeeing them as unrelated. VERY LITTLE of major importance is unrelated, nor unplanned well in advance.
I must shut my big mouth before I say too much.
YGM
(1/2/2001; 13:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 44875)
Vatican Adopts EURO as Official Vatican Currency......
Hopefully the Coinage will be AU & AG......
THE Vatican and Italy yesterday signed a convention enabling the Holy See to adopt the euro as its official currency and to mint its own euro coins.
Diplomats said the agreement had been required in order to bring Vatican City - whose official currency is the lira - into line with Italy's commitment to adopt the euro on January 2, 2002.
Under yesterday's terms, the Vatican will license Italy's Treasury to mint euros on its behalf, just as Vatican lire are struck at present. Vatican coins are legal tender now both in Vatican City and Italy.
Similarly, Vatican euros will be able to circulate freely throughout the entire euro zone, the Foreign Ministry in Rome said. Vatican euros will resemble those of euro zone countries, with the Holy See able to choose its own form of "national" illustration on one side of its coins.
There was no official mention yesterday of what this might entail, but sources said the most likely choice was either the Keys of St Peter, or the head of Pope John Paul II.
17 December 2000: Police fire tear-gas as Haider meets Pope
Journeyman
(1/2/2001; 12:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 44874)
Bond market visits Las Vegas @ALL
After a particularly volatile report on U.S. Treasury bonds by bond reporter
Rick Santelli - - - Ted David: "It's like Las Vegas, isn't it Rick. Rick
Santelli: "Yes it is, Ted." -CNBC, Jan. 2, 2001, 2:44PM EST
Regards, j.
SHIFTY
(1/2/2001; 12:05:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 44873)
WOW
Gold in free fall at Kitco and mining shares up. GSR up 33.33%
Something is up!
$hifty
magnison
(1/2/2001; 11:00:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44872)
China dumping silver
Hi..I'm just wondering what everone's take is on the news of China selling more silver into the market this year. There was a news article about it on Kitco a few weeks back. Does anyone remember it? (Sorry I don't have a link)
Does anyone know if the analysts that have been writing commentaries about the short supply of silver have taken into account what the Chinese did in 2000 and what they are planning on doing in 2001? The article said something about only two silver mining companies had quotas to sell into the market for 2000 but in 2001 they were going to allow 8 more with a total of up to 40m ounces possibly coming into the market this year. This news along with Kodak already being hedged for 2001 seems to be really bad news for silver as a whole, unless of course something major happens that no one is considering at this point.
Sorry for being so vague here but I couldn't find the article again on Kitco.
Hope some of you can shed some light on this. Thanks..Magnison
Knallgold
(1/2/2001; 10:59:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 44871)
@Black Blade
Would be interested to hear your opinion on Harmonys recent claim to hedge (the properties they bought from Anglogold must be hedged for capital reasons it was said.Banks named in the deal were 2 SA's I think and,guess it, Chase!).It shocked me when I read that,don't have the link anymore unfortunately.It is not time to hedge,it is time to close them at this prices.
Did Swanepoel sell his soul to the cabal???
Journeyman
(1/2/2001; 10:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 44870)
You've got it wrong this time @Pandagold (1/2/2001; 9:13:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44865)
Hi Panda!
I don't usually disagree with you -- but I do on the above post.
I'm not a Soros fan, but he doesn't cause the problems, he and his brethern just take advantage of untennable economic conditions caused by government-bankster paper/megabyte fiat money junkies who don't heed the lessons of monetary history.
To be a bit more clear: The government and banker screw-ups are the cretins that, as usual, cause the problems. Soros causes the problems exactly the way wet cobble-stones cause rain.
Regards,
Jourenyman
Journeyman
(1/2/2001; 9:57:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 44869)
Signs of the times: Institutions dumping US equities, especially financials, apparently @Trail Guide, ORO, ALL
3/4 of all trades in GE & EMC today have been block trades, over 10,000
shares, which is considered a sign of institutional activity. These trades
have been sells, indicating institutions are getting out of a stock. NYSE
trades like these have been increasing over the last few weeks, and today
they have hit EMC & GE. -Bob Pisani, CNBC, Jan. 01, 2001, 11:40AM EST
Regards, j.
Journeyman
(1/2/2001; 9:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 44868)
Signs of the times: Indeed hydrocarbon man is in for problems @Black Blade, ALL
If we continue to have a cold winter, it's possible that in certain
areas of the country, we will have to shut everything down except
hospitals and residences. This is a very real possibility. ... In
no time in the the last 30 years has OPEC cut oil production when
prices were this high. It's troubling that it's being done by Saudi
Arabia, our friends -- but they're up against the declining production
of their "mature" oil fields, so it's understandable. -Jerry Castellini,
Chief Investment Officer CastleArk Mgmt. Pres., CNBC, Jan. 2, 2001, 11:32AM EST
Regards, j.
P.S. The market will adjust -- we'll use less -- and alternative sources WILL be developed. People will change and adapt. That's what free markets facilitate extremely well. And we'll do it quicker if the bumbling nincompoops (you know which ones I mean) keep their inept "fingers" and kleptomaniac tendancies completely OUT of the energy business. And I mean COMPLETELY.
fox
(1/2/2001; 9:50:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 44867)
comex gold
what i see now on kitco charts
is laughing at my face
is cynical and prevers
is showing "i am the stongest"
and I begin to believe that "they" are the strongest
CoBra(too)
(1/2/2001; 9:43:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 44866)
Happy 2001 to all and @Canuck
Gold whacked?- though most gold stocks are up substantially!
Must come as a shock to the PPT that this blatant suppression of POG doesn't translate to lower gold stocks, or else, do more investors leave the tanking SM's to take cover in PM stocks? ... the physical will follow suit, as it did in early 1993.
I do understand that some of our hero's like, mostly unhedged NEM and others are under severe cash restraints - they still are my favourites, due to their perseverance not to hedge, though I hear Ron Cambre is on his way out (a great loss for the co.), but as a shareholder (meaningful for me!) I still feel this miner is one of the best in NA and I would fight any attempt of takeover by the l(y-)ikes of predatory ABX's and their Mo-(u)nkey ilks.
So fight the good fight for free markets and go gold and GATA (to quote YGM)and don't let the derivative paper game stand in your way of acquiring reality, physical and some unencumbered miners. cb2
Pandagold
(1/2/2001; 9:13:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44865)
JavaMan your posted quote (Soros)
"George Soros, the currency speculator who earned the title of 'the man who broke the Bank of England', has warned that a new global financial crisis is inevitable."
Well, he should know, he's the guy who brings about the crisis' in everybody's backyard but his own. As they say -dogs do not sh*t on their own doorstep.
Canuck
(1/2/2001; 8:59:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 44864)
Gold Whacked
Stocks taking a little hit this am, so the big bad crooks take a whack at gold just so there is no 'other alternative'.
You goofs, press that spring down a little more and get your faces out of the way when is goes, it'll take your head right off.
Rock and roll time is near; can't wait for 4Q numbers in a couple weeks.
Canuck
(1/2/2001; 8:55:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 44863)
@ Black Blade
Yes sir, Hydro-Carbon man is in for more whacks. A little reprieve on the oil front (watching the NG scramble) until the spring when oil will be back front and centre.
Forty dollar oil predicted for the winter may just be delayed a few months.
Thanks for the link.
Canuck
Parsifal
(1/2/2001; 8:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44862)
Wow
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Evidence of POG in a dirty street fight this morning at the link above. Looks like London was loosing control. New York, well, looks like the battle got mean. After wild gyrations overnight, POG dropped about $4 in a couple hours in New York.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(1/2/2001; 7:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 44861)
@TheStranger - Full Steam Ahead, Down with the $
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/010102/80/aubg6.html
Euro seen set for turbulent ascent to dlr parity
By Sabrina Ghani
LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The euro is poised to reclaim dollar parity this year, but the single currency is set for a bumpy ride because of currency option barriers along the way, options traders said on Tuesday.
The single currency entered the new year on a buoyant note after breaching an array of key chart barriers against the dollar last year on the back of growing optimism that euro zone growth would slow at a more gentle pace than the United States'. While chartists said there was little in the way of technically significant resistance levels that could turn the euro's fortunes, options traders say the euro bulls might be frustrated as defenders of currency barriers sell the euro each time it heads toward a round number.
"Knock-outs will slow down intraday and short-term spot movement and make the euro's rise a little tricky," said an options trader at a Japanese bank in London.
"But it will not change the whole longer term trend, unless real flows into the euro turn around."
Large barriers, or knock-out options, with strike prices ranging from $0.95 all the way to parity and above are in the market and would be rendered worthless once the strike price is hit, traders said.
But traders add that these barriers would only cause short-term hiccups in the euro's climb, as the long-term trend firmly favours the euro. In fact, they added that once these options barriers are taken out, the holders of these options become euro buyers, helping to accelerate the euro's ascent.
"Option barriers are like icebergs, they come and go," said a trader at a European bank.
NEXT STOP $0.97
The euro hit five-month highs around $0.9476 on Tuesday, some 5.5 percent short of parity.
Chartists said the next technical resistance comes in at around $0.97 and the worst that can happen when the euro reaches this level is that it trades sideways for a few days or stages a minor pullback before heading higher.
"A lot of work has been done already and the euro's trend is extremely impressive," said Brian Kiely, senior technical strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBOS.L - news) Financial Markets.
"Our focus now is parity and $1.03, which we might even see in the next two months." Expectations that the euro will reach parity against the dollar have seen demand for euro call options, the right to buy euros, with a strike price of $1.00, particularly in maturities beyond three months, traders said.
Furthermore, investors are willing to pay a higher premium for euro calls over euro puts, the right to sell euros.
The premium, reflected in one-month risk reversals, hit its highest levels on Tuesday in more than a year, when the euro was trading above parity.
"Risk reversals have flipped all the way and even favour euro calls in one year, so we can say that the sentiment has turned well bid for the euro and people are more convinced that the euro is going higher than they were two months ago," said the Japanese bank trader
Belgian
(1/2/2001; 7:31:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 44860)
Financial sense
http://www.financialsense.com/series2/tactics1.htm
There is NO possibility that Dollar + Debt, make any kind of soft landing. We don't need another, Plaza-plot to replay the 1985-1995 dollar-decline. The wealth-spiral + easy money + expectations, "metastase", has invaded the complete financial / economic, body.
You can't turn an oil-tanker at full speed. Day after day...I understand more and more...the "vital" and utmost importance of a declining POG ! Don't give POG a chance to develop any increasing price-trend. This event, would attract all financial bees to this honeypot.
A strong dollar has never be so important to the whole economic world. Everybody is benefitting from every side of that strong dollar. But, the stronger the dollar gets...the heavier the Debt-increase. Catch 22 !
Today, the Euro climbs against US$ + Yen. POG is masking again the signal. 273,50$ >>> 271,85
US$-index : 118,45 >>> 109 = minus 8% and POG goes down !?
I repeat my 2 cents suggestion. Hidden agenda of 1 US$ = 1 Euro = 100 Yen ?? Result : a possible stop of distorting currency-war and a pauze for the other currencies to find their balance against the giants. Conditio sine qua non is a stable POG with downwards bias. Shock-Prevention-Operation. ?
Slow decrease in Derivatives and gentle expiration of expiry dates.
They give it a try to prevent the Debt-Eplosion, by using "reason", rather than "emotion". Sorry, folks...but this never worked out as planned.
POO - Behaviour, for the last 2 years, must have been subjected to enormous derivative-forces too. The last 5 years were a Carnival-masquerade, where the paper derivative masks have been hiding the real face of any valuables and debts.
IMO, the financial Titanic is made out of pure paper. If there is no iceberg...the paper will weaken anyway...over time, and sink of course. The "crash" - word will only appear at the end, when the capitulation phase sets in.
That's how I keep on explaining POG's weakness and lacq of signal.
Thanks to Financial Sense for broadening the insights.
Black Blade
(1/2/2001; 6:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 44859)
Euro at five-month high as US worries hit dollar
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3HRX2IHHC&live=true&tagid=ZZZLLCHPD0C
By Adrienne Roberts in London
Published: January 2 2001 11:07GMT | Last Updated: January 2 2001 12:29GMT
Two years after its launch, the euro celebrated its birthday on a healthy note on Tuesday morning, reaching a five-month high against the dollar and a 10-month high against the yen. The gains were fuelled by continued worries about the US and Japanese economies. The rally came as Greece joined the euro-zone as its twelfth member. The euro reached a high of $94.76 against the dollar, Y108.75 against the yen and £0.6347 against the pound. By 1030 GMT, the euro was trading at $94.45 against the dollar, Y108.50 against the yen and £0.6335 against the pound. Euro-zone officials played a part in the positive sentiment, with Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the Bank of Franc, saying in a radio interview that he expected euro-zone countries to reach economic growth of around three percent in 2001 without inflationary pressures. Hans-Juergen Koebnick, a Bundesbank council member, said that the euro was still undervalued that parity with the dollar was a realistic value.
The euro's strength flew in the face of unexpectedly weak December euro-zone Purchasing Managers' Index data. The index fell for the eighth successive month to its lowest since June 1999. "At 53.4, the index is consistent with roughly 2 per cent annualised industrial production growth, compared with the current 4 per cent rate," said Robert Prior at HSBC in London. "It is certainly possible that the euro-zone will see an industrial recession later this year as the world trade cycle continues to weaken and the recent sharp rise in the euro starts to bite."
Black Blade: The USD looks to continue weaker against the Euro. Bush appears to favor a weaker dollar - we shall see. Looks like Dim Wim can't even scuttle the Euro this time.
Black Blade
(1/2/2001; 6:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 44858)
RE: Canuck
http://www.futuresource.com/free/cgi-bin/mpsn?ai=fwne
This link might prove useful for commodities as well as API data when released.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(1/2/2001; 6:39:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44857)
RE: Canuck
This afternoon we should know about refinery utilization rates as the API inventory numbers should come out today. These numbers are released on tuesday afternoons - sounds like an old Moody Blues song doesn't it? Anyway, with the long New Year's weekend, it could be delayed. We are approaching a slow-down period in oil, yet on the 17th of this month OPEC meets to slash output. The refinery capacity problem will likely rear it's ugly head again as we approach summer with increased demand for distillates such as gasoline and diesel.
- Black Blade
Canuck
(1/2/2001; 6:20:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 44856)
@ Black Blade
Good morning Sir,
Any news on refinery capacity lately and/or link to such.
TIA.
Canuck
(1/2/2001; 6:18:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 44855)
Excellent article/Upcoming storm
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/puplava010201.html
Good read.
JavaMan
(1/2/2001; 5:57:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 44854)
Good Morning all...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/newsid_1096000/1096865.stm
Just recently returned from visiting with family for the holidays. I see there is lots of reading to catch up on. Hope to participate later as time allows.
Steve H, I saw this article just before visiting the forum.
"George Soros, the currency speculator who earned the title of 'the man who broke the Bank of England', has warned that a new global financial crisis is inevitable."
SteveH
(1/2/2001; 5:27:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 44853)
Trail Guide
Also,
ON the Bloomberg ticker area where the notes of the day are posted, Soros was quoted as saying that the US is in for a hard landing.
SteveH
(1/2/2001; 5:24:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 44852)
Trail Guide
This morning, CNBC did a piece about the emerging Europe and the place where the money is flowing now. Bond Debt was at 88Billion euros, up from last year where the said it was -44 billion in outflows (whatever that meant). 9% unemployment though.
Did you read the ORO piece re: the euro and Europe? Back a couple of days ago.
SteveH
(1/2/2001; 5:19:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 44851)
Gidsek
It is complicated. The point of that paragraph is that credit is being created using Fannie Mae instead of the fed, increasing liquidity in the housing loan market, which raises real estate prices. Later in the same article he mentions buying Microsoft shares, which heretofore had gone up (until recently).
Bottomline. Interesting article with periods of great concentration required. Good graphs though. Other times it is clear as a bell. SO, best to plow through the whole thing as he tries to explain the question you asked.
Steve
Black Blade
(1/2/2001; 5:15:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 44850)
"Strange Daze"
Gold back to coma status, but the Euro is much stronger - up 0.52 at 94.80, and USD index is lower -0.26 at 109.02. Futures are all lower except the NASDAQ futures. Looks like a confused market for the first trading day of 2001. Gold demand is looking better, as gold is politically correct again. It appears that gold clothing and bold gold jewelry to match is in fashion according to a recent WSJ article and the WGC. A shift in sentiment could signal a shift among investors as well. We shall have to wiat and see. Petroleum is higher, though NG is plummeting below $9.00 Mbtu, in spite of record low storage levels, lack of additional drill rigs, and political opposition to increased drilling. The Grasshoppers are looking to steal from the ants by using their political muscle. Should get entertaining as regional neighbors and NG producers continue to resist.
Black Blade
(1/2/2001; 2:38:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 44849)
Market Crash Developing for New Year's Open?
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
Futures look sharply lower tonight. The theory of the market in January is that "As goes January - so goes the year." This could be interesting if January craters. Could be a last chance to acquire gold and silver at bargain basement - fire sale prices. This could get rather fun. BTW, Gold up +$1.80, but still clawing back from getting ambushed last week.
Black Blade
(1/2/2001; 1:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 44848)
Gold Stirring Tonight
Gold is up slightly +$1.70, and Silver up +$0.03. Hang Seng gets clipped for over 225 points in overnight action. NG is off -$0.67 at $9.10 Mbtu as the little snow flurry on the east coast passes. However, winter is far from over and it looks to be cold this year, all the while NG storage is drawn down to record low levels. We are really cutting this one close!
Black Blade
(1/2/2001; 1:40:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 44847)
Gold Miners That Go Belly-Up, Abby Jo, and a Couple of Oil Slicks
I have read about how many mining companies have slashed exploration budgets. Those are the mining companies that are running scared. Profitable miners have actually increased exploration budgets. Harmony Gold for example is pushing ahead with increased exploration. Meanwhile, other hedged miners are eating out of their hedge books and high-grading their ore deposits in a desperate attempt to either remain "profitable" or at least survive for some reason. They have slashed exploration budgets because they simply can't afford it. Check into the companies annual reports and see which companies have cut exploration and development budgets – those are the ones to bail out of. Check to see which are living off of their hedge books – sell those too. Check the bottom line and see which ones are not profitable – sell those too. That leaves only a handful of miners. When the price of gold rebounds – look out, most forward sold miners are toast – refer to Ashanti (ASL) and Cambior (CBJ). You see, without exploration and high-grading ore, there is no future for that company – they're toast! Forward sold miners rely on gold prices to decline – rather curious for a gold company – yes? When the POG eventually rises – those companies are toast! An interesting note on those companies that are eating out their hedges – those contracts are running out. They have helped to depress the POG. Now any forward contracts available are also at much lower prices. These ever declining lower priced forward contracts are converging with the lower physical price of gold. Those companies who rely on higher gold prices will have to go belly up when the current forward contracts are filled. There simply are no more higher priced forward contracts available. It's "catch-22" – "Damned if you do, and damned if you don't" Feel no pity for them, they sowed the seeds of their own destruction. No exploration for higher grade deposits that can be mined cheaply? Then die on the vine as it were. Pick gold shares very carefully and then only profitable unhedged miners that have plans for growth. Also, watch the lawsuit of Ashanti Shareholders against the companies officers – take note Barrick (ABX) and AngloGold (AU). Also, Cambior only got a temporary reprieve, as they now are shedding off assets faster than a stripper on speed!
Well we made it into 2001. I see that Abby Jo Cohen's predictions came up short. No S&P at 1450, and no DOW at 11500. I thought for sure they would trot out the old girl to talk up the market for a year end push.
An interesting table of petroleum stats came to my attention. I thought they were somewhat entertaining, as the US is becoming more dependent on petroleum – especially natural gas. From the Division of Professional Affairs Energy Statistics, AAPG:
Petroleum Demand 1999 World 74.8 Mbbl/day US 19.52 Mbbl/day
Total US Energy Consumption (EIA) 1998:
Petroleum 40.7% Natural Gas 24.1% Coal 23.3% Nuclear 7.9% Hydro 3.8% Other 0.2%
US Electric Supply (EIA) 1999:
Coal 50.6% Nuclear 19.6% Natural Gas 15% Hydro 8.3% Petroleum 3.8% Geothermal-Solar-Wind 2.4% Other Gas Fuels 0.3%
BTW, OPEC meets on January 17th, to cut oil production and exports. The size of the cuts could determine whether supply becomes a problem. However, it was never a problem with supply as much as a problem with refinery capacity. We are in a "Dead Zone" now. Present supplies are filling the gaps for current needs, but as the so-called "driving Season" gets under way and refinery capacity comes under renewed pressure – lookout. Remember last summers high gas prices and calls for government investigations by Grasshoppers everywhere? Look for a repeat!
Mr Gresham
(1/2/2001; 0:38:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 44846)
Trail Guide, & debt dissolve
Trail Guide -- absolutely, take only the time you have available. How can we all make the best use of it? You have been so generous in the past, so I have three suggestions:
(1) We all re-read the Trail (so much has happened to confirm, or raise questions) so we're all "on the same page", and
(2) Questions specifically to TrailGuide are posted in a specific place (new page?) for you to get them most easily, unless, of course, you're having someone search each day's posts or previous day's archives. Maybe that's OK for you already?
(3) Be willing to write: "I think I've covered that one before,... but here's a new twist on that..." and just give us the quick take. But now I'm recalling that your writing style is one where you get pretty deep into the flow of your thoughts and experiences when you post a Trail message, or answer a bunch of questions... Maybe that's what it takes for us to get your best stuff, so that just means doing it less frequently, unfortunately.
But even just popping in for a quick hello, and maybe a couple clues or hints or articles dropped can keep us moving. If this is an alteration of your project with ANOTHER, can you tell us? Or if solely your personal time limits, we'll understand. You can't do any better than your best, so don't hold back trying to perfect it...
DEBT
All the discussions about a collapse assume that AG will be trying for a soft landing, trying to unwind derivatives slowly and leaning against another LTCM collapse. But things have gone on so much further, one analysis must be coming through to his and GWB's desks that a fast, deep debt unwinding would avoid a Japan meltdown followed by 10 years of the "walking dead."
I would suppose that under this scenario that the big firms are jockeying for survivorship. Might all the losing positions be being offloaded onto such as the JPM/Chase (now completed) derivatives Goliath, or the offshore "funding corps" that aggregated credit card debts, etc.? Even Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.
You notice how a spate of bad earnings reports lets all of them off the hook to let out bad news? Like writing off "nonrecurring losses" so they'll look better in future reports. What about if their was going to be a big one-time debt meltdown? Why would anyone MISS the opportunity to load up their designated debt donkey and send him on outa town carrying all the firm's liabilities?
All the "chosen ones" would be moving their net worths toward safe havens, ready to net out their remaining losses. Their solvency will allow them to keep their long-term debt in current payments, and to buy up the losers' assets at firesale prices.
What kinds of signals would we look for that an awareness of this impending crash is part of strategy at the top, and that, instead of "Y2K warrooms", they now have "Plunge Protection Warrooms"? Oro?
It might be something as arcane as knowing which Treasury security dealers are keeping their repos going with certain others, or closing them out. Areas so far from my/our experience...
SHIFTY
(1/2/2001; 0:10:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44845)
WORLD GOLD COUNCIL
http://www.norfolk-now.co.uk/Content/Business/htm/010101Gold.htm
New gold rush could be on the way
Part of the World Gold Council's advertising campaign featuring Darcey Bussell.
HARRY DAY
Eastern Daily Press
January 1, 2001
Millions of dollars are being ploughed into a worldwide campaign aimed at sparking a 21st century gold rush by persuading investors to bank on bullion.
The World Gold Council (WGC) is backing its campaign with "several million dollars" – double its previous outlay – in a bid to encourage both institutional and private investors in Europe and the Far East to include gold in their portfolios.
Institutions can invest in gold by buying coins or gold bars – standard 400 ounce "London good delivery" bars are just over £73,000 apiece – which are kept for them by a bullion bank such as HSBC.
But private investors are more likely to buy jewellery, gold coins – UK gold sovereigns, Australian Nuggets, South African Krugerrands, Austrian Philharmonics – or small gold bars.
Indeed gold coin sales in the euro area, encouraged by the removal of Vat on January 1, rose by 29pc – from 4.4 tonnes of gold to 5.7 tonnes – in the first nine months of 2000 compared with the same period last year And there seems to be something to suit every pocket.
One Blackpool-based dealer was last week offering Australian gold nuggets over the internet costing from £50 for a tenth of an ounce to £215 for an ounce. The same dealer was offering year 2000 gold sovereigns for £65 with discounts of 13pc for bulk orders of 500.
The market price of gold at the time these figures were quoted was £183 an ounce so there is clearly a mark-up on the coins suggesting bars might be a better prospect.
At market prices a gold bar weighing a kilo would set you back just under £6000 and a small gold bar, called a 10 tola can be had on the open market for approaching £700.
But gold investment is not that simple.
Prices are always quoted in US dollars and fluctuations in the dollar against other currencies could turn a rock solid investment into fools’ gold.
For example, the third quarter of this year saw the gold price fall in US dollar terms, but actually increase by 16pc in sterling and by 23pc in euros, compared with the same period last year.
The reverse could apply.
Stockbroker Richard Larner at the Norwich office of Hill Osborne said gold investment did have some advantages over shares – no management fees and good to look at.
There were also limitations.
Mr Larner said: "In the past gold has only come to the fore when there's been high inflation and we don't have any signs of high inflation at the moment. It didn't really pick up in the 80s when interest rates went up but it was really successful in the 70s when we had high rates of inflation."
Jeremy Charles, gold dealer at HSBC, said the market had been relatively quiet during the year with prices remaining in the $262 to $290 an ounce range.
WORLD GOLD COUNCIL
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$hifty
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