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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/2/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
Peter Asher
(5/2/99; 23:21:34MDT - Msg ID:5515)
Tomcat
Your statement: <I do not believe
that one mastermind group is in charge of everything. It seems that there are many powerful and
private groups who compete for big pieces of the pie. >
That really does look like the most logical and believable scenerio.
Peter Asher
(5/2/99; 23:10:51MDT - Msg ID:5514)
10% of a days trading volume
http://news.excite.com/news/r/990503/00/business-brokers-goldmansachs
Might suck some money out of the other stuff ???
Tomcat
(5/2/99; 22:50:59MDT - Msg ID:5513)
Christine
Christine. You have asked me for my views. All I can offer are opinions.
I used to to read about conspiracies and never was convinced because the books I read only offered circumstantial evidence. I remember one book about the Rockefellers, "None Dare Call it Conspiracy", which alluded to but didn't nail down enough facts. I got tired of hearing about the CFR but never getting a factual information.
Recently, however, I am beginning to see evidence that is not so circumstantial. One factor is that the press seems to be uniformly controlled on many issues. Just this week GATA found that not one piece of the media establishment would run its news release. The JFK cover up took a lot of coordinated yes-men doing their job. The CIA's involvement in banking and drug running has be thorougly documented in Rodney Stich's "Defrauding America". Mr. Stich also gives names, places, dates and photocopies of collusion in the Justice Department that was orchestrated from the top. L. Horowitz presents very strong evidence (in 600 pages in the book Emerging Viruses) that AIDS was manmade and introduced to the US and Africa intentionally by a specific and named group.
Christine, I am not even a conspiracy buff but the evidence seems unavoidable. I do not believe that one mastermind group is in charge of everything. I seems that their are many powerful and private groups who compete for big peices of the pie.
The fact that the POG is being controlled and that many are taking this chance to buy all that they can is a bit circumstantial but it sure makes me wonder.
So, Christine, I am changing, slowly but surely in the direction that seems parallel with your views. But, just because their is collusion doesn't mean there is on top level mastermind group and a NWO starting next year.
I come from an Eastern European heritage where my grandmother saw all eight of her brothers forcfully conscripted into the Russian Army and not one survived. My father was an imigrant who saw his share of violence. I personally come from the streets and escaped by getting an education.
So, skeptical I am, Christine. And, prepared I am as well, in case my life must cross paths with the evil that I know exists.
But Christine, I am also biased. I come to this forum to broaden my views and shed my fixed ideas. I must admit, that the internet and forums like this are my salvation from isolation. I was born streetsmart enough to be a survivor but not wise or sophisticated enough to develop a broad base of intellectual and practical financial commrades. The real gold lies right here on this forum. I hope my inexperience and ignorance does not waste others time.
I enjoy your posts because they have caused me to think in ways that I am not accustomed. So my Lady, please keep communicating. :)
Gandalf the White
(5/2/99; 22:26:00MDT - Msg ID:5512)
SLOOOOOW afterhours trading on GC9M tonight
BUT the price is going in the correct direction-- 288.2 last.
<;-)
canamami
(5/2/99; 21:05:01MDT - Msg ID:5511)
FOA - Reply to Post# 5505
FOA, there is no need to apologize. I fear I may have misunderstood and miscategorized your work and that of Another to a substantially greater degree than you misunderstood mine. I was just surprised that you attacked Donald Coxe's May 1, 1999 Globe and Mail article when the effect of the article was to make it difficult to label as "cranks" those who believe in gold price manipulation, and when the article appeared to constitute mainstream support for at least a portion of what you and others have been arguing in this Forum. (Coxe has been one of the few mainstream commentators I have read who continued to view gold as a financial asset; the theory on gold price manipulation is repeated in a conference call on the Jones Heward website).
Also, I would be honoured and overjoyed to have you comment on my posts 5500 and 5501, as you obviously have cognizance of that part of the world. I believe I may have overstated some points in my posts. Obviously, there is some significance to a possible rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, given the past "coolness" in relations. It may be partly due to the new Iranian President's desire to moderate Iran's international activities and image. Further, I ought to have pointed out that although there is greater individual freedom and democracy in Iran than Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has been a much more responsible international actor and friend of the West, by not supporting terrorism and subversion in the rest of the world, unlike Iran (though Iran may now be moderating its foreign behaviour).
I suspect the main difference between our views (as I perceive them) is that I believe the $US will fall, gold and oil will increase, perhaps dramatically and to an extent I don't anticipate, but I don't foresee the degree of cataclysm it appears to me that you and Another foresee. I believe that the major currencies of the West will continue to exist and to be serious units of exchange and stores of value. In short, the major currencies will not be demonetized, IMHO.
Again, thank you for your contributions. I must now genuinely forebear from future posts for a time, lest I become unemployed for not doing my work.
Christine
(5/2/99; 20:11:41MDT - Msg ID:5510)
A date to remember--June, l999
There is a rumor that has been well discussed @ Gold-Eagle that the POG will start to rise in June, 1999. There is alot of story and info to the rumor. But briefly, the rumor reportedly originated from German Suarez, head of the central bank of Peru. He supposedly said this in l996. Many of us have speculated the rumor is related to the introduction of the euro, and could very well be true. Anyway, if POG started moving dramatically in June, this could sure start the proverbial golden ball rolling. There have been many odd coincidences since we first heard the rumor back in Feb, 1999. For one thing, only a short time after we heard it, Golden Sachs came out for with the new date for their IPO in May. Maybe they heard the same rumor?
Christine
(5/2/99; 20:02:27MDT - Msg ID:5509)
Tomcat--I just hope it's not the worst case scenario
As you probably know, I feel or believe that many things are being manipulated and will continue to be. I listen to FOA's scenario and watch. The damage has already been done--eventually market forces will take over, and whatever inflation is in the system will be evident. I wish I knew answers to what you ask. Do you have any further ideas about it?
Tomcat
(5/2/99; 19:53:21MDT - Msg ID:5508)
Could we make a list of those factors that will contribute to bursting the bubble?
Thank you Chicken Man for your projection calculation. Now this ratio, calculated like this could have been done five or ten years ago. The projected POG would have come out perhaps one fifth of your projection due to a lower debt number but the projection would still yeild a wildly high value for gold. But the bubble did not burst then and we did not go on to a gold standard.
Given that, can anyone take a stab as to what circumstances exist today that did not exist five or ten years ago. Why will the bubble burst now as opposed to then. Back then the stock market was very high (so everyone thought), oil was on the rise, we had trouble with Sadam H., and so on. But no burst.
In addition, now we have: the Asian Crisis, Y2k, the group of overleveredged hedge funds, the reluctance of some CBs to support the dollar with gold sales, and the covering of the shorts on a rising POG. There are many more.
Perhaps we could make a list of Bubble Bursting factors. Many have been mentioned in this forum but I have not seen a list all in one place. Does anyone feel that such a list would be helpful to the forum? Would such a list act as a summary of many of the wonderful contributions by FOA, Another, The Stranger, ...? Once we had such a list, could we refer to it in our posts as sort of a reference point?
OverHerd
(5/2/99; 19:42:29MDT - Msg ID:5507)
Ramblings
Hi all and Stranger, I saw your post as I was about to post and just added that little blurb. I guess my experience in options is typical of the majority, although there are some people that can make money at it, it appears I'm not one of them. I do own some natural resource stocks: in oil Adams resources and energy (AE), and Hurricane hydrocarbons (HHLAF); in gold Azco mining (AZC) and Northgate exploration (NGX); in oranges Orange Co (OJ). At least I don't see the government going after the oranges in the groves (HA HA) just a little joke no disrespect intended. I have talked to Mike and he's been very helpful. It will be interesting to see how things work out. I'm glad I had some time to join the discussion, mostly I only have time to read, and that is limited. I like to think that I try to stay well informed, which is why I am at this forum, and not glued to the boob tube. I think there is great opportunity in the future but I must also be aware of what's going on now. I think technology is the wave of the future but I missed the start of this round and I will wait for an opportunity. If I can stay ahead or over the herd these opportunities will be available all the time. Right now it's the precious metals and oil that have the greatest profit potential at least in my view. The country (USA) and the world could be in for some changes especially for people who are not cognizant of what going on, but I think things can turn out all right.
ANOTHER and FOA I very much enjoy your posts, they are very informative and helpful in plotting a course for the future and I thank you for that. The information you share with the forum is very valuable and should be considered by all. I'm not sure if it is fate or destiny that I meet up with you in cyber space, but I believe I am much better for it and only wish I could repay the debt of gratitude I owe you. Again thank you.
Tomcat
(5/2/99; 19:27:17MDT - Msg ID:5506)
Christine and the projected POG
Christine, I am interested the stock market contribution to the inflation. It certainly is a major factor. What circumstances do you see that would force the valuation of the gold (or the devalulation of the dollar) into the numbers you project. Also, do you forsee the US creditors wanting dollars and keeping the value of the dollar high due to Y2k?
FOA
(5/2/99; 18:44:55MDT - Msg ID:5505)
Reply
canamami (5/2/99; 15:44:49MDT - Msg ID:5500
Canamami,
I went back and read both your post and my reply / analysis to it. You are right and I see your point. My intent was to show the "mind style" used by many manager / strategist for the evaluation of gold market investments. In doing so I walked on your major purpose for offering the piece in the first place. I made my point, but took your work out of context to do so. A very sad mistake, for me, my friend as I lost much more than I gained. My apologies.
The fact that he made this statement was indeed a confirmation of the "changing analysis" of the gold market:
"Since gold has been a reliable inflation indicator for at least four millennia, weakening its price at a time of soaring oil prices is politically smart. It will help convince economists and central bankers that disinflation or even deflation is still at work, despite rapid money supply growth and some of the lowest interest rates the world has seen."
Your story by Somerset Maugham brings out many of the feelings honest, hardworking people have when hearing of the "easy riches" they have missed. It seems, these days, a conservative person exists to service the needs of those who gamble and live on the edge! But life is dynamic and trends always change. Perhaps the justice, so due for your "Good Guy" will return as the exciting history of gold is played again in a modern world. Thank You FOA
P.S. I would offer a further analysis to your #5500, but courtesy will require permission.
Christine
(5/2/99; 16:22:31MDT - Msg ID:5504)
OverHerd--Interesting analysis
One of my suspicions I voiced awhile back is that getting control of electronic offshore banking is one of the issues this is all about. I know very ordinary, honest people who already have offshore bank accounts thanks to the internet. Our government and elite must just love ordinary citizens having offshore bank accounts.
USAGOLD
(5/2/99; 15:59:51MDT - Msg ID:5503)
Townie...
How good of you to volunteer. It is fitting that the keeper of the news should also keep the Hall of Record. Thank you, sir.
USAGOLD
(5/2/99; 15:57:22MDT - Msg ID:5502)
Usul...
I note that you catalogue the arcane and unusual as a hobby. I have seen the most recent interpretations of Nostradamus' quatrains having to do with the third world war starting in the Balkans in July99. (Perhaps you could supply us with that quatrain?) Are there corresponding texts that you know of making a similar prediction from other sources? Those who comment that it appears we are on some pre-determined course with respect to the Balkans, point to the intractability of the U.S. and British governments (today's events being no exception) as a warning of terrible things to come. What say you, my friend from across the water?
canamami
(5/2/99; 15:51:58MDT - Msg ID:5501)
Brief Clarification
I meant to state, at one point in my reply to FOA's post# 5489, that other Arab countries applauded Iraq for fighting the war against Iran. This reflected pan-Arab nationalism vis-a-vis Persian Iran, and also reflected tension between Sunni and Shiite Islam.
The posting moratorium is back on, and this time absolute (at least for 10 days)!
canamami
(5/2/99; 15:44:49MDT - Msg ID:5500)
FOA - Reply to Post# 5489
FOA - RE Post# 5489
FOA, the visit of the Saudi minister to Iran is of some note, but I suspect you're reading far too much into it. There is very little in common between the two countries - that's why there have been few contacts in the past twenty years. Saudi Arabia has a traditionalist, oligarchic government which fears the more radical, democratic government of Iran. In short, the Saudi ruling class fears that the Iranian regime will help engineer its downfall. Although both are theologically conservative Islamic regimes, the Saudis are Sunni, while the Iranians are mainly Shiite, and there is sometimes real hostility between the two. Contrary to what we in the West generally believe, there is substantially more individual freedom and democracy in Iran than in Saudi Arabia or the Gulf States (though Iran is authoritarian by Western standards), and reformers in those countries can look to Iran as a pattern state for reform within Islam, notwithstanding the other substantial differences between the counties. There are of course differences of nationality: Iran is Persian/multi-ethnic, while Saudi Arabia is Arab/guest worker. These differences of nationality also count for a lot - note that prior to the Gulf War some Arab countries, while noting that Iraq was wrong to invade Kuwait, applauded Iraq and stated it was entitled to compensation for "taking it on the chin" so to speak, for the Arab world. To an extent, this was an expression of a latent pan-Arab nationalism.
Second, against what threat would this alliance be focused? If it's against Iraq (the most likely candidate), the US still has a major role to play. I don't believe that the Saudis or the Iranians together would have sufficient naval or air power to prevent a second invasion of Kuwait. The alliance could be focused against the West (if the oil taps are shut off), but I don't think the West (read the US) would invade for this reason because public opinion would not allow it. Americans will not support a major military adventure unless there is a major moral issue involves - communism, foreign invasion, ethnic cleansing. It has been written that Americans generally fight the"devil", not for their national interests. Americans and the rest of the West and G-7 would pay $60 a barrel or more, but they won't fight for oil. (The US does have a right of access to Canadian energy supplies in an emergency, and there are other short-term reserves). The danger for the traditional Arab oil producers is that the US won't protect them from a third party aggressor or internal revolt if the US is gratuitously harmed economically by a repeat of the 1970's.
If oil goes up even dramatically (and I suspect it probably will), all that will happen is a short to medium term economic slump (perhaps a major one), but then alternative sources of oil and other energy will come on stream. The boom of the eighties and nineties followed stagflation of the seventies and early eighties. So, we will go through another period of stagflation. Oil will go up, gold will go up, inflation will go up, the $US will go down (much overdue), stocks will go down, etc., and then it will end and the cycle will recommence, provided we don't blow ourselves up or poison ourselves to death.
FOA, I agree with much of what you say, and I thank you because your writings have provided me with insights I would not otherwise have acquired. I agree that the $US will decline, gold will increase, and rising oil will be a significant catalyst. Gold will serve a more explicitly significant role, I am sure. However, the US and the rest of the West is tolerably well-run, and the various national currencies (especially the $US) will not become worthless or disestablished. These shocks will make us poorer, but not undermine our basic way of life. Gold will probably end up explicitly serving a major role, but the other aspects of our financial system will not be disestablished. I'm still expecting my gold shares to make me a lot of $Cdn. , and I'm hoping to enjoy those $Cdn. (some of which will be converted to $US, physical gold and other currencies as a hedge against Quebec separatism) well into the future.
Thank you, and this time the posting moratorium is firm!
P.S. - FOA, I must express some displeasure with your criticism of the mutual fund strategist whom I quoted in post# 5431 (a man whom I must emphasize I don't know and have never met). Unless you have some other knowledge of his investment philosophy, I believe any criticism or purported knowledge based on a three paragraph excerpt from one article was quite unjustified. It is not my intention to be difficult or unduly critical, but this is a point which I felt ought to be made. Again, I thank you for your contribution to my own and others' understanding of issues related to gold.
OverHerd
(5/2/99; 15:41:31MDT - Msg ID:5499)
Know your short seller
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/the_economy/newsid_331000/331877.stm
Hi all, I was reading the BBC news article called "The 1.5 Trillion Gamble" and my thought on this is that it is another version of KYC. In the summery of the recommendations it's stated "closer regulation of offshore financial centers." This has been a long-standing goal of the government that compliments the exit tax. The recommendation of "better risk management by banks, with more bank funds put aside to cover any risky investments" I see as if you don't play by our rules we will make it economically hard on you. The other two seem to go together and also tie in to what FOA has said about the mining companies not being a good investment. It is stated "disclosure by financial institutions of any material exposure to hedge funds" and "Quarterly reports for larger hedge funds, publishing "frequent and meaningful information" this would allow one to use the banks to identify the hedge funds that would in turn identify the mines that have sold forward. If the gold in the ground is to be "over-taxed" or confiscated then you would need to know who exactly owns this gold as not to step on the toes of the wrong people. This would also enable you to make sure all the shorts that are "in" on the deal are out before the fun starts. It all sounds like the usual create a crisis, solve a crisis, and get more control routine.
PS. Thanks Stranger I appreciate the advice and will heed it!
TownCrier
(5/2/99; 14:00:35MDT - Msg ID:5498)
More regulations not needed, hedge funds say
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990429/bov.html
Hedge funds try to protect their unique turf, dismissing any need for controls.
TownCrier
(5/2/99; 13:54:11MDT - Msg ID:5497)
Task force recommedations to Congress on hedge funds
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990429/hedge_fund_6.html
Fallout from the near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management that nearly caused a financial meltdown.
TownCrier
(5/2/99; 13:42:54MDT - Msg ID:5496)
US says sceptical on hedge funds role in Asia woes
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990501/k.html
Despite some limited US balking, efforts have begun to reign in hedge fund activity.
TownCrier
(5/2/99; 13:37:39MDT - Msg ID:5495)
Philipine interest rates near bottom, bankers edgy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990502/p.html
See how monetary policy is used (with varying degrees of success) to stimulate economic activity.
TownCrier
(5/2/99; 13:27:04MDT - Msg ID:5494)
Keeper of the Hall of Record
USAGOLD, it might be appropriate for the reporter of 'news you can use' to also keep track of the Hall of Record. Unless another dearly wants this position, I stand ready to serve as needed.
In that regard, I also voice my support for the inclusion of the two posts you've referenced.
Chicken man
(5/2/99; 12:09:12MDT - Msg ID:5493)
May I address the forum...?
Being this is only my second post (another lurker stepping foward) I am honored to speak to such a noble gathering.....
As to the discusion of $ of gold...may I might add....the US gov(the Fed? ) cannot peg the price of gold below their prior obligation of debt....if the people of the US (taxpayers) owe the world $5.6 trillion that figures out to be $22,000 a person.....that is each taxpayers portion of the IOU's that the politians have saddled their voters with.....now the Treasury/fed only owns approx. 260 Mil. oz. of gold...that would be only ONE oz. for each citizen.....hence an oz of gold would have to be "worth" $22,0000 an oz....no more dollar value based on "full faith and credit.....no more faith in the "store of value" of the US dollar and need less to say the credit part will be costly(30 - 40% interest rate for starters)....one needs to watch the rest of the countries in the world to get a feeling as to the fate of their curriencies once they are "attacked"....those who held gold in Indonesia fared quite well in preserving their buying power as their Rupiah was dumped for being "unsound and not a store of value".......(read- too much printed)
I would go so far as to peg the future value of gold to $30,000 an oz.....22.5K plus 7.5K future indebtiness before the paper boy's admit the battle against gold is hopeless....to say 30k is out of the question....one must observe that to "control" inflation the people who print the fiat money also have the "power" to strike zeros from the paper that they printed.....read Yugo gov struck a total of NINE zero's from their curriency.....that would be a real "wealth" adjustment!!
So...as they say...got gold..?
cannot "sell"
FOA
(5/2/99; 12:07:50MDT - Msg ID:5492)
In poor form.
All:
Sorry for the poor spelling in my #5489 as I am in a rush and wanted to send this quickly. Will return much later. FOA
USAGOLD
(5/2/99; 11:59:17MDT - Msg ID:5491)
FORUM BUSINESS....Repeat Post from Yesterday plus Add on at bottom
Canamami and FOA: Two brilliant posts for the newly inaugurated USAGOLD Hall of Record
Recorded by number here for archival purposes this first day of May, 1999 Nos. 5431 and 5439
Thank you for sharing your insights, Canamami and FOA.
******************
ALL:
This Hall of Record will be established as a permanent file to be accessed through the USAGOLD Home Page. The page will be
established once the first twenty posts are selected. These are the first two.
In order for this Hall of Record to become a Permanent Institution established by this Table Round, we will require ten
supporting posts seconding the motion.
Thank you, my fellow knights and ladies, let the Hall of Record become the keeping place of our most memorable and important
posts -- a place of honor in which entrance should not be taken lightly.
Member recommendations will be considered by either e-mail or posting to the FORUM.
****************
5/2/99 Add on:
So far if I'm counting right, we've got three seconds. Need seven more.
Seconds:
Gandalf the White
Peter Asher
Julia
Any more?
I like the idea of the regular posters picking their favorite posts and entering it into the Hall of Record themselves. I think though we might have to have at least one other member of the Table, possibly two, speak in that post's behalf as a matter of establishing it as rising to the level of Hall of Record standards. These honoraria will be the stuff against which all other posts will be judged in the future. They must be generally considered worthy.
We will need a Keeper of the Hall of Record. This would entail keeping a file and then sending it by e-mail to me on completion so that I can create the file, links etc. The Keeper of the Hall would be so honored by name at the top of the page.
Any volunteers?
Christine
(5/2/99; 11:58:52MDT - Msg ID:5490)
@Tomcat andPOG--Scarier projections
Tomcat--I have seen others try to make the analysis as you suggest-it is a good concept. Part of the debate then has to become whether or not you include treasury bonds in the formula, as much of $US are held as treasuries. Scary.
In my previous post, I tried to remain calm and make comparisons from another era--70's--that we survived, although not without a war. However, there are distinct differences this time. The main difference is that by every measure, the stock market is vastly more overvalued now than it was in the 70's at the top (top actually late 60's). To me this current stock market represents a huge amount of monetary inflation, much greater than that which led to the stagflation of the 70's. So if I were honest, I would have to admit I think my POG projection of $3500 is considerably too low, and would have to be increased by at least 50% or more to reflect recent inflation. This is scary to think about.
FOA
(5/2/99; 11:54:54MDT - Msg ID:5489)
OIL
http://www.nandotimes.com/noframes/story/0,2107,44496-71801-518849-0,00.html
Canamami,
Earlier, you had stared many items that would conflict with the outcome that Another and myself see ahead. One of them was this:
canamami (4/25/99; 22:10:30MDT - Msg ID:5165)
"However, and first, many of the Middle-Eastern countries are dependent on the US for military protection. No country or alliance in the world can match the US with respect to military technology. Only the US maintains a military of the size and mobility to assist those Middle-Eastern countries if they are threatened. The bottom line: only the US can protect these traditional regimes (The US being the successor to Britain and its Empire in this as in many other
roles)."
Please note that times and circunstances change quickly in the fluid world of politicts. Even today, Arabia takes a further move. First oil, now defence! Next, finance! This world is changing and we are part of it. Read below or see above link:
"Saudi defense minister makes 1st visit to Iran in 20 years
Copyright © 1999 Nando Media
Copyright © 1999 Associated Press
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (May 2, 1999 10:04 a.m. EDT http://www.nandotimes.com) -
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan arrived Saturday in Iran on a groundbreaking visit that could bring the two Gulf heavyweights closer to a defense agreement.
Sultan, who arrived in Tehran late Saturday, is making the first visit to Iran by a Saudi defense minister since the country's 1979 Islamic revolution.
Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said Sultan's visit was "a turning point in relations" between the two countries and called for a military pact with Saudi Arabia to defend the Gulf, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
The defense ministers will discuss "the general outline of a security plan for the region," said Iran's ambassador to Riyadh, Mohammad Reza Nouri Shahroudi.
A Saudi diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was a possibility the two sides would draw up a defense agreement. "
(more)
Tomcat
(5/2/99; 11:26:54MDT - Msg ID:5488)
I couldn't do a simple projection :(
Christine and Jade have just proposed the POG in the $3000 dollar range in reasonalble.
So, thought I, being somewhat new in this arena, it is time for me to work a few basic ratios to see if $3000 is a reasonable figure. Hmm... should I divide M3 by 8000 tons of gold?
Or should should I divide our forien held dollars by...uh oh, says I, I don't know what I'm doing. I am lost. Here I am reading and discussing complex economic models and I can't can't even prove my point on the back of an envelope.
So , now that I have exposed my ignorance, I reach to those wiser than me to relieve my embarassment. How, in God's name do you project the value of our precious metal?
Jade
(5/2/99; 10:57:32MDT - Msg ID:5487)
Christine
Perspective…It's rather interesting how Gold added a zero to $35 USD an ounce and became $350 USD. Your observation is one of the main foundations for my buying more of this precious currency every month. It has been exactly my thoughts that this currency will add another zero again and thus be $3500. Its simplicity is rather terrifying, as I really can't imagine this country with $3500 USD Gold. The turmoil we will go through to arrive on the other side of this event will be beyond the imaginations of most individuals including myself.
Christine
(5/2/99; 9:11:19MDT - Msg ID:5486)
Perspective
During last goldbull market: POG had been manipulated and legally held down for as long as possible prior to the bullmarket starting. During the 70's bullmarket, POG went from $35 to $800, then settled into a new POG equilibrium of $300-$350, for an increase of 1000%. This time, IMHO, POG has been held down via manipulation for roughly as long as possible, so it would be within historical norms for POG to climb to higher than $3000, but to establish a new equilibrium of $3000(ie an increase of 1000%). Also, during the 70's, the secular bear stock market ultimately dropped 50% before it was over. The U.S. dollar is very strong and can withstand some weakening--balance of payments deficit can't continue. My point is, all the scenarios we have discussed here so far are within historical ranges.
The Stranger
(5/2/99; 8:24:18MDT - Msg ID:5485)
Overherd
Against a market basket of 19 major currencies the dollar is up about 5% since January 1, opening day for the Euro. Meanwhile, the euro is down about 10% against the dollar, leading one to believe that the dollar/euro move has been about half euro weakness, half dollar strength.
With all due respect to Arizona Hiker, I would advise you to stay away from options. The first ten years standardized options were traded, I was a young broker who specialized in them. What a mistake that was. You simply must hit the timing right on the nose, or you lose. I am afraid the cynical joke that brokers whisper to one another, that no matter how much money options-traders start with, they all wind up with the same amount - zero, is true.
I was able to place Arizona Hiker's age and profession so quickly (April 29, about 9p.m.) because of his arrogance. He was advertising his success when it was clear he hasn't achieved it yet. (If he had, by the way, I suspect he would still be employed in that most lucrative of all industries). In short, he is old enough to have knowledge, but he still has work to do on wisdom.
Perhaps, judging someone else in this manner makes ME sound arrogant. If so, I apologize. But, speaking from long experience, I would advise anyone to steer clear of options. If you do not have a lot of money to work with, I'll bet Michael can show you gold coins that sell for under $40. There are gold mining stocks that sell for under $2/share.
The road to fabulous wealth is Rte. 72, and it is open to everybody. EVERYBODY!
T. Remital
(5/2/99; 8:15:29MDT - Msg ID:5484)
I AM AWAKE AND READY TO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVV
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/GoldenBull.jpg
CHARGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SteveH
(5/2/99; 8:12:31MDT - Msg ID:5483)
One possible out come of the golden game of chess
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/ascani050399.html
Here is an outcome of the game that shows the variety of solutions possible.
Usul
(5/2/99; 6:36:48MDT - Msg ID:5482)
Insider accumulation
Peter Asher wrote 5/1/99; 21:21:30MDT - Msg ID:5469 that insiders would be aware of a market debacle before the fact, and therefore would accumulate gold in advance...
It is not the upsurge in the POG that signals this, but the POG that stays the same!
Private sources are indeed accumulating gold coin, as can be seen in the sales figures of the Gold Eagle at the US mint. But perhaps their eyes see only Y2K?
FOA says that gold will be sold, but no buyers listed. Many times we have heard that CBs have sold gold. Many times we have been told that Switzerland will sell gold and set free its currency. Many times we have been told that the IMF should sell its gold. Rumours circulate of brokers with orders to sell. Strange indeed would be a market
that has only sellers... yet the POG has not fallen below
approximately $280 in a year. For every seller, there is a buyer (CBs on both sides!). In my view, the insiders are there, buying with
both hands everything that the sellers have to throw at
them. This is a tug-of-war and the centre of the rope, for now, remains between the lines. Insiders have been alert
to what is coming for some time. It is not a matter of
if, but only of when.
SteveH
(5/2/99; 3:48:57MDT - Msg ID:5481)
Jule and Stranger
www.the-privateer.com
Julia,
The above link has open interest published every Saturday early. He, the Captain, is in Australia and updates his site on his Saturday afternoon, our early Saturday or late Friday night. Here are his last figures on open interest.
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html
Another good site for info on gold is www.goldminingoutlook.com. Here you can learn about COT's (committment of traders) and such.
Stranger,
FOA was quite explicity wasn't he. The posts from Another and FOA have been increasingly more direct of late. This seems to be matching up with an offsetting action in the gold markets too, which adds further credibility to their words. In a big way I hope they are wrong as who in their right mind would ever want gold to go up under the circumstances they present. Rather, I am in Bill Murphy's camp that wants people to stop manipulating it so we may enjoy the benefits of a rising gold price free of manipulation. Unfortunately, life isn't that simple and if what they say is true then I presume his message is clear. There are obviously many possible outcomes of their projections. From a simpleton's mind, it is all like a big chess game. FOA appears to have thought his moves out far in advance, perhaps to master level skill. But the game is still on, the players are under the timer and it is white's (the good guys) turn.
The outcome of the game doesn't mean there will be or has to be one winner. Hopefully all will win. Certainly, fractal theory shows that a drop of water on the hand will move in a different direction every time. So too this golden chess game has many possible outcomes. But as in any game, a good offense is sometimes the best action. For the offense to make the best moves, however, they must understand the rules of the game. And that is where I am having the most trouble with all of this. The game appears rigged, not all the players know they are in it. If they know they are in it, I am not confident that they know all other players and all of the rules. Decisions made on incomplete information begets incomplete solutions.
Obviously these events take place in corners of a round earth that ellude only but a few. But, are we watchers of the great game or or we too players? We are players and our collective moves will ultimately determine the outcome. So, here is a gulp and a puff to us that we may all make the best decisions in this golden game, decisions that will protect our loved ones, our friends, our countries, and our world.
Steve
jinx44
(5/2/99; 0:26:43MDT - Msg ID:5480)
Two thoughts
If the big mining houses are sold forward an average of 1 or 2 years, then I can only take that to mean available stocks from mining will be only a fraction the the yearly global production. Yes? That also means world demand will be bidding for existing hoards that will hard to dislodge from people like us and actual yearly mine output of maybe 800 tonnes for the next several years instead of 2700 tonnes? It's going to be a fast ride on this train.
And to G the W--There is gold in the mountains behind my house and I would love to pack in and work a claim. I believe FOA's prognosis on the USG laying their heavy hands on ALL manner of gold trading. It would probably be a federal felony to possess, sell, or offer for sale gold in any raw or semi-refined state without the right permit and tax stamp. Remember, we the people do not own the land. It belongs to the government. They will remind us of this when gold breaks out and heads north.
Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
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