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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/21/2006 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Golden Lionheart (4/21/06; 21:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 143470) Using a naughty word! The theories of Marx and Engels brought up to date by Chairman Mau have produced the Chinese Communist(the naughty word) power house. To each according to his needs and from each according to his ability. A lofty ideal indeed.Now nearly every citizen in China wants to buy gold and its the same all over Asia and the Middle East.In the West, as the price of gold rises, people will scramble to sell their gold trinkets as they did in the 1980's. Its two different worlds. Topaz (4/21/06; 21:31:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 143469) @Matt. Everyone and his dog was expecting Ag to drop. The trick will be to keep it down through next week into Options expiry and FND. The heat now being off Gold del'y, we might well see Au outperform Ag in the volitility stakes ...FWIW. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 20:41:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 143468) What? Greenspan Wants His Pay in Gold! http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=2322 SNIPNo doubt until and unless the republic falls, Mr. Greenspan has nothing to worry about, because he has been an ultra good "German" in that he has done exactly what his bosses demanded, even though he knew what he was doing was immoral and would destroy our nation. And now this man wants to get paid in what he knows is honest money, unlike the trillions of fantasy dollars he created in his tenure at the Fed. If future historians record the events of Greenspan's time at the Fed honestly, they'll have recognized that his money printing bailout policies were the seeds of America's destruction. TownCrier (4/21/06; 18:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 143467) Matthew, Silver. Gold. http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2020064/default.html Some of us talked about that very topic yesterday from time 15:48MT onward. Click link and scroll down. Feel free to chime in with your own additional thoughts.R. TownCrier (4/21/06; 18:40:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 143466) Speaking of the Riksbank... http://www.riksbank.com/ Those clever Swedish central bankers put a nice shiny pile of gold to accompany their homepage press release about the reduction in dollar reserves. Clever, I say, because the press release itself is in regard only to the position foreign currency.As to the gold, when the current (and final(?)) Central Bank Gold Agreement runs its course (Sept 2009), the bank is expected to have 170 tonnes of yellow metal. In January 2005 this final level was casually said in a press release to represent 10% of total international reserves.HA!Gold has subsequently climbed from 2900 Krona per ounce at that time to nearly 4700 krona per ounce.Without adding an ounce to the final destination, the gold pile has already climbed in value by over 62% and subsequently "weighs" in at a higher proportion of foreign reserves than a mere 10% as originally suggested.For context, please see my earlier posts and commentary today.R. Matthew (4/21/06; 18:39:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 143465) Gold verses Silver Yesterday saw the dis-connection of the gold and silver markets. Silver lost around 20% of its value, gold was almost untouched.ANY COMMENTS ON THIS BOARD???????? TownCrier (4/21/06; 18:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 143464) GOLD: currently $3 million == 4,800 oz http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Bilder_riksbank/Kat_sedlar_mynt1/staplade_guldtackor_high.jpg Few people will ever own this much gold by weight, but soon enough many will by price. Work it out, mate, and then choose the proper scorekeeper for your savings.Thanks to the Riksbank for this one.R. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 17:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 143463) They have no brains – or are in bad faith http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE04F5AD7-59B8-4129-A6B8-90DD3D7C7E3A%7D&siteid=google This guy concludes that if you believe in gold as an asset class, you want to own gold.But he said in the paragraph before that he would buy a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. Any rush to this gold-mining stock would be foolishSNIPRob Lutts, president of Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass., believes that gold still has a lot of room to run, but he wouldn't recommend trying to keep up by purchasing one stock. Instead, he would look for a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. "It's really tricky to go out and buy individual gold stocks," says Lutts, who manages about $375 million in client money. "If you went out and bought the biggest and best of the last 20 years, you would have been wrong. You're loading up on management risk for the one stock; if you believe in gold as an asset class, you want to own gold, not one or two mining stocks. Just because gold has been so strong doesn't mean this is a good time to buy a stock with a bad long-term track record; that just doesn't make sense." The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 17:40:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 143462) Thank you, President Hu http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/james_k_galbraith_and_warren_mosler/2006/04/thank_you_president_hu_1.html Thank you, President HuChina's inaction is the best America can hope for.SNIPFinally, do imports cost American jobs? Yes they do, and those hurt by expanding trade should get help. But any failure to replace jobs lost to trade with better jobs is also entirely domestic.+The "innocent fraud" of "borrowing from abroad" to fund our trade deficit diverts attention from real problems to false ones. And should one day those false problems disappear, then the real problems would become much worse. So, let's hope they don't, and in the meanwhile, we might say a word of thanks to the Chinese, instead of blaming them for what they do. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 17:07:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 143461) The Philosopher and Gold http://www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca/philosophy/nav04.cfm?nav04=38830&nav03=12617&nav02=12335&nav01=12326 Diogenes Laertes, "Lives of Eminent Philosophers", Pythagoras, Bk. VIII, 8"When Leon the tyrant of Phlius asked Pythagoras who he was, he said, "a philosopher," and that he compared life to the Great Games, where some went to compete for the prize and others went with wares to sell, but the best as SPECTATORS; for similarly, in life, some grow up with servile natures, greedy for fame and gain, but the philosopher seeks for truth." Aristotle, "Metaphysics", 980a "ALL MEN BY NATURE DESIRE TO KNOW. [Pantes anthropoi tou eidenai oregontai phusei]. An indication of this is the delight we take in our senses; for even apart from their usefulness they are loved for themselves; and above "all others the sense of sight. For not only with a view to action, but even when we are not going to do anything, we prefer sight to almost everything else. The reason is that this, most of all the senses, makes us know and brings to light many differences between things. " USAGOLD Daily Market Report (4/21/06; 16:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 143460) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.FRIDAY Market ExcerptsGold gains almost 6% for weekApril 21 (from Reuters) -- Precious metals in New York ended higher on speculative bargain buying and short covering on Friday, after a dramatic free-fall in metals on Thursday, though prices still held well below recent multiyear peaks.Steadier spot prices for metals overnight, coupled with rising crude prices and a soft U.S. dollar, helped boost precious metals, trade sources said.COMEX June gold futures rose $12.40, or 2 percent, to $635.50. It had slumped as low as $610.50 previously."The funds came right back in, certainly, and today, I think, the correlation with the oil price was very evident," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois."Oil went up to $75 and the metals went along with it," he said.But trading remained relatively cautious on concerns about more possible selling by funds after gold fell 4 percent and silver 19 percent, respectively, at one point on Thursday.Futures bounced after spot gold rose in Asia and Europe and as dealers came in to support prices on the New York market's open, traders said. Gold then stretched higher by the close as nearby U.S. crude futures advanced above $75 a barrel to a new record.Rising energy prices boost gold because investors often turn to the metal as a hedge against inflation.Meanwhile, the dollar fell against the euro after Russia's finance minister (see article below) questioned whether the greenback would always maintain its undisputed preeminence as a reserve currency. The euro popped up to $1.2360 after the comment.---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)--- TownCrier (4/21/06; 16:00:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 143459) UK's Brown presses for IMF reform http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060421:MTFH00090_2006-04-21_21-00-36_WAT005393&rpc=44 WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - The IMF needs reform to help the world economy better withstand challenges, because the Group of Seven can no longer manage the global financial system om its own, British Finance Minister Gordon Brown said on Friday....the Bretton Woods institutions urgently needed an overhaul to reflect the changes in the world economy."In the past, exchange rate policies could be seen to be simply a matter of concern between the advanced industrial countries and involving other countries only as borrowers. This is not the case today."Brown said there had to be a place where the G7 could discuss with emerging market countries their accumulation of currency reserves, a place where a global strategy to cope with imbalances could be thrashed out.^---(from url)---^I'd like a little cream with my coffee, thank you.Now thrash away... gold can take it all, and then some.R. TownCrier (4/21/06; 15:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 143458) Thanks... nice speech by Ms. Miceli Key elements:"...exponentially growing holding of U.S. dollar-denominated financial assets and if the time comes when investors consider that enough is enough, this would unleash a chain reaction that will certainly plunge the world economy into a major recession. This is not unlikely to happen..."Again... "NOT UN-likely to happen" means IS likely to happen..."...it is critical, therefore, to reduce global imbalances in the less disruptive way possible...""The IMF has been ... a bit less forthright in presenting ... a policy package that could unwind them."At the risk of boring you with a rehash of my old opinion, recognizing that central banks can (and do) play a key role, in the interest of trying to work out the imbalances in the least disuptive way possible, it is advisable that the CBs not aggravate the problem by selling their own vast U.S. bond holdings into a depreciating dollar market. Instead, they would be advised to hold fast to those holdings and "eat" the resulting losses. There is no need to fear for the position of their balance sheet, however, because a soaring price upon their gold holdings can be utilized to neatly and concurrently fill the void for all those who practice MTM valuations of their reserve assets.In the role of reserve asset, it has to be GOLD as the primary replacement for U.S. bonds -- not euro bunds or any other type, otherwise we would simply be out of the frying pan and into the fire... same old same old. For its part, Europe surely does not want an overvalued currency to stymie its balanced economic position.And in the course of this dollar dethroning, the world economy need not fear overmuch for the loss of the American consumer as a driver of economic activity because the revaluation of gold will create such a vast wealth effect for all of the humble gold-owning people in the developing regions of the world that there will be no lack of economic stimulus as these folks capitalize upon their new-found purchasing power to demand a long-overdue upgrade to their standard of living. The economy truly becomes GLOBAL rather than merely a one-sided servicing of the U.S. consumer's demands.R. 968 (4/21/06; 14:23:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 143457) Statement by H. E. Ms. Felisa Miceli http://www.imf.org/External/spring/2006/imfc/statement/eng/arg.pdf Statement by the Honorable Felisa MiceliMinister of Economy and Production of ArgentinaSpeaking on behalf of the Southern Cone Countries of Latin AmericaInternational Monetary and Financial Committee MeetingWashington, D.C., April 22, 2006SNIPS :"We all agree that persistent high imbalances represent a major vulnerability. They generate an exponentially growing holding of U.S. dollar-denominated financial assetsand if the time comes when investors consider that enough is enough, this would unleash a chain reaction that will certainly plunge the world economy into a major recession. This is not unlikely to happen; it is critical, therefore, to reduce global imbalances in the less disruptive way possible, while trying to avoid adverse effects on growth and employment.""Rather than being part of the problem, I would like to see the Fund as part of the solution.""The IMF has been forthright in providing members with adequate analysis of the ever-growing imbalances and a bit less forthright in presenting them a policy package that could unwind them.""We all know that exchange rates should be part of the package but we would mislead ourselves if we come to believe that all will be solved by a depreciation ofthe U.S. dollar. Of course the policy package that the Fund has been hinting at is more comprehensive than this as it also calls for collective actions from all members to avoid the type of beggar-thy-neighbor policies that the Fund must prevent.""Particularly significant at this stage is the impact on the real estate market which has been a main supporter of consumption and growth through the wealth effect in several countries, especially in the US.""It is very important to have a correct perspective in relation to the role played by central banks in this process. In this regard, we believe that we should avoid creating the perception that central banks per-se are able to deliver growth and low inflation on a sustainable basis. If this view gets entrenched, there is a risk that protectionists’ interests may have their day in the misleading hope that central banks will be able to continue delivering growth and low inflation.""Finally, by giving policy advice requesting more labor flexibility without first considering whether internationally recognized core labor standards are being complied with, and whether the black economy is already providing too much "flexibility" to the labor market, the Fund may have made things worse."" Also of critical importance is that the intra-Euro trade should be considered as domestic trade in measuring openness."----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Towncrier, any thougths on (gold-buyer) Argentina's Economy Ministers' speech ? Flatliner (4/21/06; 14:18:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 143456) Oh most wise old-timers For the feeble brain newbie's (like myself) in the forum, can you please shed a little more light on what appears to be a simple statement that you've referenced below. TownCrier (4/21/06; 14:09:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 143455) 968, For sure... Usually they are much more political -- much more discreetly circumspect in their hints and nudges.I guess the message is that we've now moved beyond that very gentle phase of the transition.R. 968 (4/21/06; 13:15:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 143454) Wow, Townie !!!! This is heavy stuff !!!! TownCrier (4/21/06; 12:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 143453) Please PLEASE Read This -- Russia's Kudrin questions dollar's reserve role http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060421:MTFH31750_2006-04-21_18-03-23_N21256689&rpc=44&search=.DXY&searchtype=symbol&norics=1 WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin on Friday questioned the dollar's pre-eminence as the world's "absolute" reserve currency, given its recent volatility and the size of the U.S. trade deficit.The remarks helped send the dollar lower against major currencies and caused Wall Street analysts to wonder whether central banks will increasingly diversify their holdings out of dollars.Kudrin, in Washington for the semiannual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, told reporters at a news briefing the dollar's value had not been very stable in the past several years, particularly against the euro."This causes significant changes in the international situation and that is why we do not understand the U.S. dollar at the moment as the universal or absolute reserve currency," he said. "The international community can hardly be satisfied with this instability.""Whether it is the U.S. dollar exchange rate or the U.S. trade balance, it definitely causes concerns with regard to the dollar's status as a reserve currency," Kudrin added....Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves of $212 billion are the largest of any country outside of Asia.Currency traders were especially sensitive to any remarks regarding the dollar's reserve status after the Swedish central bank earlier Friday said it had decreased its holdings of dollars to 20 percent from 37 percent of total holdings.Asked whether Russia will continue to recycle its so-called petrodollars back into U.S. financial assets, Kudrin only said, "We are developing cooperation in the international arena."^----(from url)---^The international monetyary world as you knew it is undergoing change even as we speak. Do you dare face the change without primary holdings in physical gold?R. MK (4/21/06; 12:31:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 143452) The Hoople: Old dry Christmas tree I agree with you on your analogy and your point that all currencies are endangered and highly flammable. The citizen of Japan, China or Europe has just as much reason to own gold as the citizen of the United States. Recitifying the "imbalances" talked about so often these days WILL have consequences similar to the Asian contagion in that all fiat money economies react to the same set of stimuli in approximately the same way, and the inflation is global in scope. (The numbers might be on a different scale, but the circumstances are similar.) I have said many times that the first victim of the Asian contagion was the United States in the 1970s. That's the template. When fiat money systems go bad, it produces some recognizable results -- results that can be planned for.As an aside, I find it interesting that the citizens of Iran (no less) -- not completely trusting their government -- are scrambling for gold. This comment is particularly telling:"Gold coins are Iranians' political hedge fund. We keep them at home and they make us feel secure."Seems that our citizenries have found some common ground even if our respective government's have not. That comment doesn't sound too far afield from the comments we see at this forum on almost a daily basis. Clink! (4/21/06; 11:10:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 143451) America meets the new superpower http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article358568.ece Following on from MK's "Devaluation", this article talks about some of the ramifications of such a devaluation.Snip:-The rise of China is posing awkward questions for the US, along with the realisation that its days as the world's economic superpower are numbered.Some analysts see America entering a period of "managed decline" not unlike that which Britain has experienced since the end of the Second World War and the end of empire.End snip.While it is nice and comforting to think that there is going to be a "civilized" passing of the baton to China (and others), there are a couple of points of difference between the lasting passing (UK -> USA) which I believe it is important to keep in mind. 1/ When the Bretton Woods accord was signed, the takeover was between two of the longest- and closest-allied countries that the world has seen in recent times - allied in virtually any sphere of human interest you care to mention.In other words, it was a passing between two very old friends.2/ Looking back at the very long history of Chinese civilisation (from circa 1500 BCE), there has been an underlying theme of (re)conquest by absorption. China has been conquered on several occasions, but the invader has only lasted in power a couple of generations before being enveloped and subsumed in the existing culture. I see the possibility of a gentle descent of US supremacy into relative insignificance on the world stage without someone thinking that all it took to save the situation was a flexing of the extraordinary muscle power of the US military as somewhat remote. Saber rattling over Iran is a good current example. While it can be argued that the Roman Empire, say, crumbled in a gradual fashion over several centuries, I don't think that this changeover is going to take nearly as long, and the US will still have its institutions intact and functional, rather than being totally decadent. I think that the best we can hope for is that we move from the current unipolar world to one where there are several reasonably autonomous power blocks. South America is showing signs of wanting to move in this direction, for instance. In the meantime, we all have to hold our breath. And wonder what the real world leaders have in mind for us.C! The Hoople (4/21/06; 10:47:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 143450) MK, Good analysis A lot of dots seem to be getting connected recently. They all lead to major revaluation of paper vs. gold and commodities. When the clamor about the Yuan being undervalued is raised what is unspoken is that a dollar devaluation produces a similar effect; it will raise the Yuan defacto. Bottom line though is it really doesn't matter when all countries have faith-based currencies. They all jockey for the title of best of the worst. I think a lot of worldwide wealth has had that epiphany lately. It isn't a matter of running from one currency to another, it's a matter of running from all currencies. A dollar collapse would be ominous for all currencies in my belief. Much like the Asian contagion in the 90's, it didn't take traders too long to figure out Thailand wasn't the only tiger in trouble. If you factor in derivatives all paper could go up in flames like a match on an old dry Christmas tree. The dollar devaluation will attempt to be orderly and politically cooperative, but I wouldn't count on it. How high can gold go? How bright will the light of the Christmas tree flame be I'd say. MK (4/21/06; 10:01:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 143449) Goldilox, Invisible Hand: The Coming Dollar Devaluation Note: Wanted to complete some incomplete thoughts per below. Pls read this one not the previous. Thanks for the comment, Goldi. . ._____Volatility in the gold market is greater than anything we've seen since the 1970s bull run. There is so much analysis out there as to why this is happening that it becomes difficult to pin down the two or three primary drivers to this market. My hope with this post is to pull together some seemingly disparate parts into a functioning whole for the benefit of our readers trying to make some sense out of this.Overall, despite the volatility, the trend is gold is solidly to the upside. The most important feature of the trend from both a fundamental and technical standpoint is that there are some deep pockets on the bull side of the equation with last night's overseas run-up in the price the latest manifestation of this "presence." But what is the nature of this presence?In my view, that "presence" is not so much an individual or group, like the hedge funds, but an idea which has reached full maturity in the collective-global financial consciousness and working across the spectrum of financial interest from the hedge funds, to the big banks and trading houses, to large capital investors, and smaller investors alike. That consciousness has to do with the U.S. government/Federal Reserve's move to devalue the dollar. Thursday's Financial Times featured a front page headline -- "IMF eyes dollar depreciation to resolve global imbalances." "The dollar will have to depreciate 'significantly' over the medium term if global imbalances are to be resolved in an orderly fashion, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday as it stepped up pressure for far-reaching shifts in exchange rates." Please note the use of the cage rattlers "significantly," "far-reaching," and "orderly fashion." In other words dollar volatility, destabilizing as it might seem, is preferable to the alternative -- an international economic collapse.In my view, Bernanke has been positioned at the Fed to engineer this dollar depreciation and the IMF statement both falls into line with this policy and serves as a warning to the financial establishment that devaluation is clearly the policy of the U.S. government/central bank. I would not be surprised to learn that the report was leaked before the latest leg in the gold run-up. The financial establishment may have been enlisted to play a role in the policy. Overarching all is that the policy, as of the IMF statement, has become common knowledge.This is the "presence" driving not only gold but all the commodities. When you add the "rolling bubble" phenomena to this analysis, the volatility is more easily understood. Anyone who believes that these markets are driven by anything other than pure monetary inflation is by-passing an important aspect of the current financial markets, and the liquidity is going to gold for good reason. In the end, a devaluation cannot occur without the blessing of the other major players -- the yen, the euro and the yuan. In today's world of currencies without a de jure attachment to gold -- that devaluation is as much a "political" consideration as it is "economic." The IMF, we now know, will play a key role in bringing the devaluation to fruition, and should be equated by current and potential gold owners as a call to arms -- a flex point the equivalent of Nixon's 1971 closing of the gold window. Those of us old enough to remember can pass along what "devaluation" meant to the American economy in the 1970s. Further, when you take the 1970s timeline as a template, it begins to look like everything that has happened so far has been merely the prelude.For the small investor (you and me), coming to some understanding of the political culture driving these markets remains key to our personal psychological well being. The most successful investors come to an understanding -- a philosophy, if you will -- and then carry that philosophy around with them applying it to everything they do financially. Understanding that devaluation is a policy and not something that comes out of the clear blue without warning has become requisite. Holding physical gold in the form of coin and bullion is the best alternative when faced with this volatility and the clear conception that the U.S. is likely to prevail with this policy. (If it doesn't, my advice to the world's citizens no matter where they live is to prepare for the worst. Either way gold becomes the most important holding for the individual.)Some of you will recall that I predicted a $525 gold price by the end of 2005. When the prediction was made, some thought it to be out of line with reality. Also, remember that I predicted a spiking gold price in 2006 and a $760 interim top based on a "devaluation of the dollar." Whereas the 2005 uptrend occurred without a coincident dollar drop, the $760 prediction was based upon a dollar devaluation becoming part of the market mix.The pieces are beginning to fall into place. The volatility will now be ever-present, but the dips are likely to be met with buying by those who understand the culture now at play. Marc Faber recently noted that the Kondratieff Wave is really an analysis of the commodities’ cycle. He said that we just finished the 15 year bear market in commodities and are now in the first years of a 15 to 20 year bull market in commodities (gold being the king of commodities). The devaluation of the dollar falls into that analysis.My best,MK Goldilox (4/21/06; 09:48:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 143448) Bull Run @ MK,Even CNBC pundits today said of gold and PM stocks:"you just can't knock these down for more than a day!"Nice buying op yesterday. Goldilox (4/21/06; 08:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 143446) Shades of '03 While gold and silver press onward and upward, the DOW and S&P are making new "highs", as well. It looks a lot like a '03, the dart board year.Was yesterday's short run on gold and silver engineered to keep the SM indices from faltering at these lofty levels?What was the FED statement about "unconventional methods"?No reference, just my $0.04, adjusted for inflation. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 08:10:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 143445) China Gold Stocks Not As Good As Gold http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060421/15/406ru.html SNIPgold stocks in China have already priced in the gold rush, at least for the coming months, traders said Goldilox (4/21/06; 07:48:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 143444) Shares and PMs @ TIH,Now I see it. Thanks. It's a pretty vague statement not supported by the HUI. "Many shares" may be referring to the dry holes, which is certainly true, but the established miners do not fit into the authors blanket statement at all.Caveat Emptor. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 07:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 143442) Goldilox This was part of the excerpt I snipped:In addition, many of the gold stocks have not risen as aggressively as the commodity pricePerhaps my English or my knowledge of economics is too bad but to me, this means that the shares aren't following the metal. The Hoople (4/21/06; 07:30:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 143441) Update on Crimex They lifted the ban on buy stops around 9:30 Eastern. Goldilox (4/21/06; 07:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 143440) CNN-money article @ TIH,I read the CNN article twice and didn't see anything that suggested shares weren't following the metals - nor does my experience support that notion.One analyst was spreading BS about waiting a few more days until the flushout was complete, but as gold is already back over $626, this may be some pretty poor advice.Another analyst: "Kerry Smith, a gold stock analyst at Haywood Securities said that gold prices and gold stocks may not need to consolidate much further before rising again, if recent history is to be trusted." The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 07:20:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 143439) ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) – Page Four http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER4.html In His reply to Steve, Another says that He answered the question earlier.I don't find that answer.Can anybody direct me to that answer?SNIPSAlso, as gold begins to rise against the dollar, the local gold reserves are seen as assets of increasing value, backing the local currency. Under these conditions, with a stable currency, citizens will purchase more gold as it is seen as a positive asset. Not unlike a rising stock, everyone wants an increasing investment. Contrast this action against that in Korea, where everyone sold gold as it increased in an unstable currency!Basically, this is the direction the Euro group is taking us. This concept was born with little regard for the economic health of Europe. In the future, any countries money or economy can totally fail and the world currency operation will continue. What is being built is a new currency system, built on a world market price for gold. Michael, you are absolutely correct in that the USA will see a hyper inflation of it's currency and a gold price in dollars that reflects it. Unfortunately, for most investors, the gold price rise will be sudden and also hyper fast. as it will occur just after a rapid plunge in dollar based assets including, stocks, debt and the entire banking system. This action will destroy virtually all gold based paper assets as they are also dependent on a functioning economic system. A local gold mine, in any country, must sell production to realize a profit. The contract system they deal with will not be functioning during this time. Contrary to many hopeful investor, local treasury officials will not allow miners to pay employees or buy equipment with physical gold. When the dust does clear for mining to continue, gold will be recognized worldwide as real money, and the mining of money will, no doubt, carry Extreme taxation. Stock prices of these operations, after being priced to zero, will then double or triple in price. Zero times three equals?+From Steve: On 8/10/98 Friend of Another commented that hyper inflation "will destroy virtually all gold based paper assets," and that "the contract system they deal with will not be functioning during this time." Could you help me understand the breakdown of the contract system on a global basis and why those companies with cash reserves will not be able to whether the initial economic system collapse and do you literally mean "zero" stock value for all gold stocks.Do you foresee any interim period between now and hyper inflation where gold will go up enough to suggest that those holding gold paper assets will be able to sell at a higher value than the doldrums it presently holds?Thank you for your insight.ANOTHER: Mr. Steve, If you read my letters for today, I think this question is answered. Also, this new gold market is "ongoing" and "changing". The potential exists for the return of gold as the "only" reserve currency. This may result from a failure of the Euro, due to a massive upheaval. Oil states, they have the ability to force this outcome. During this result, all paper will burn and the world economy will start over. However, the BIS is buying gold for customer governments as they begin to lower the dollar. This action, began some months ago will bring gold up, perhaps to the middle $360 range. If the world paper markets do not destroy themselves, gold stocks may rise for a time. But, physical gold is the good hold for this time.Thank You Knallgold (4/21/06; 06:59:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 143438) test test mikal (4/21/06; 06:56:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 143437) G7 meeting may affect currencies http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=allBreakingNews&storyID=2006-04-21T121908Z_01_L21650784_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-5.XML Euro Gains as Diversification Fears Haunt Dollar | Katie Hunt | Reuters.co.uk | 04-21-06 The Hoople (4/21/06; 06:51:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 143436) Crimex scam of the day The Comex implemented limit or market orders only today in silver. Take your choice, either get filled at any damn price they choose or sell below the bid. Funny how the panic buttons always get hit when the shorts need it. This isn't a get out of jail pass, it's more like a never get charged for a crime and never go to jail pass. When will they lift the no-buy stops rule? Tuesday after option expiration would be a good time, unless they're in such deep trouble it gets carried to May contract expiration. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 06:38:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 143435) Gold Trail Four http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/GoldTrailFour.html SNIP-Professor von Braun's latest update at The Rocket School of Economics,,, Excerpt from "Lecture 38"--...Just like oil today,,,,,,,, Free Gold is a good deal for tax income. And most gold industry workers will stay in their jobs (although some layoffs will happen) even though it's a dirty, almost break even deal for mine owners. Their business would only get a fraction of the profits from a huge rise in gold bullion and their shares would wallow in uncertainty as gold soars. But, then again, didn't your buddy Will Rogers say something about American risk takers,,,,like:"staying out of the governments path with your investments is the second national pass time behind baseball"Ho! Ho! That Will was something mikal (4/21/06; 06:37:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 143434) Specter of broad diversification returns http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a73b2234-d128-11da-a38b-0000779e2340,_i_rssPage=49c48c22-c99b-11d7-81c6-0820abe49a01.html Dollar Falls as Sweden Slashes Holdings in Half - Financial Times - Steve Johnson - April 21, 2006 The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 06:24:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 143433) Gold Trail One http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.html FOA (05/14/00; 20:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#22)Mothers: the only real gold of this earth!SNIPThere will be some huge profits to be made by holding certain mine stocks. But, almost all of them will go close to zero first. I doubt many investors could hold their current percentage through this price action. Physical gold will find a new market and soar in that medium of trade. In the face of this, few if any stockholders will hold their falling mining shares while watching gold soar. Yes, some will (like me) hold through thick and thin because they have a right percentage of (the best) mine shares to bullion. But, many, many others will pressure the market as they attempt to adjust to (our)level of holdings.http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs12.pl?read=6993425 October 2000sNIPHe and his friend 'Another' (FOA=Friend of Another) have been calling for a failure of the gold stock and futures markets for over 2 years now. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 06:05:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 143432) The Gold Trail http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/20/markets/goldstocks/index.htm?section=money_latest Here's an article from yesterday which says that the stocks are not following the metal.Did FOA not argue something to that effect, or rather did he not say that when this would happen, the road was free.SNIPA necessary pullback?Analysts say demand for the commodity as well as global economic growth projections are likely to continue to drive the price of gold higher going forward. In addition, many of the gold stocks have not risen as aggressively as the commodity price, suggesting that there are still values to be found. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 05:51:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 143431) Contradictions cannot exist http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nSP99766&imageid=top-news-view-2006-04-21-085447-view_DBX10D_MINERALS_GOLD_RHODES_0421_03%5B1%5D.JPG&cap=A%20security%20guard%20places%20several%20one-kilo%20gold%20bars%20inside%20a%20secured%20vault%20in%20Dubai%20April%2020,%202006.%20A%20broad%20sell-off%20in%20gold%20and%20silver%20accelerated%20on%20Friday%20as%20speculators%20took%20profits%20after%20the%20prices%20of%20both%20metals%20raced%20to%20their%20highest%20in%20more%20than%20two%20decades%20this%20week.%20REUTERS/Tamara%20Abdul%20Hadi Gold, silver sink as speculators cash inSNIPSThe sharp dip in precious metals took a bit of shine off the boom market, but analysts said the up trend was likely to continue. "Whatever short-term turbulence may be encountered on the way as speculative enthusiasm waxes and wanes, a long bull market in commodities is under way," said Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at Diapason Commodities Management, a commodities fund co-founded by investment guru Jim Rogers. +While some of the selling was profit-taking, some was by speculators cutting their losses by selling long positions they bought at what turned out to be a temporary market peak, fund managers said. Beyond this short-term volatility, all the factors that made gold attractive to investors -- worries over the Iranian nuclear standoff and worries over inflation -- remained, analysts said. "Despite the huge decline...such a correction would be deemed a healthy scenario in order for the metal to continue on higher in the future," Standard Bank said in a report. "Fundamentally, there are no changes to suggest that inflationary and geopolitical concerns have been allayed, which is supportive in the long term." Sundeck (4/21/06; 05:27:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 143430) Bill Murphy interviewed over at Mineweb http://www.mineweb.net/radio/mineweb_radio/254885.htm ...(a transcript). Bill laying it out as per usual (and probably enjoying it)...:-) The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 03:36:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 143429) For those who didn't notice: the POG COLLAPSED http://business.iafrica.com/randwatch/254755.htm Gold's collapse knocks unitSNIPThe rand is weaker on the back of a softer euro as well as short stops being taken out and also the collapse in the gold price — yesterday gold traded at a high of $645 and now it's around $610," a currency trader said. "The market was short dollars and it was caught unawares when the gold price collapsed so there was some short covering." Goldilox (4/21/06; 00:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 143428) Cyclone Monica hovers above Gulf http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200604/s1620319.htm snip:The weather bureau says it expects tropical cyclone Monica to turn back to the west, despite taking a sharp turn to the north tonight.At 10:40pm AEST, a cyclone warning was in place for coastal communities on western Cape York Peninsula from Pormpuraaw to Weipa.A cyclone watch was current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities between Port Roper and Milingimbi including Groote Eylandt, Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy.At 10:00pm AEST, the category 2 storm was 150 kilometres west-southwest of Aurukun. The cyclone had recently turned to the north-northeast.The weather bureau says the cyclone will continue to intensify overnight and is expected to start moving towards the west early in the morning.Manfred Greitchus from the Cyclone Warning Centre in Brisbane says the cyclone is not likely to return to the Queensland coast."We're anticipating that Monica will again resume its westward path during the early hours of the morning," he said."However it still could produce some destructive wind gusts along that coast between Weipa and Arukun during the early hours of the morning as it intensifies and before it turns to the west again."Cyclone shelters are being prepared across east Arnhem Land.Four thousand residents of Nhulunbuy, on the Gove Peninsula, are preparing for Monica.Today, staff at the Gove District Hospital were clearing out the building storeroom that serves as Nhulunbuy's only public shelter.They are putting in portable toilets and facilities to boil water.The hospital's acting manager Diane Brown is expecting hundreds of people will come to the shelter if the cyclone hits.She says most will come from Aboriginal communities in the area.-GoldiloxAnother massive cyclone hits Australia's mining region. The Invisible Hand (4/21/06; 00:04:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 143427) gas at $23 a gallon http://www.irishexaminer.com/pport/web/ireland/Full_Story/did-sg4NtWS7zX-eY.asp €5-a-litre petrol in the pipeline for motorists, warns expert SNIPSMOTORISTS could face the prospect of paying €5 a litre for petrol within the next four years because of global oil shortages. +Another expert, Professor Austin Darragh, University of Limerick, said some predictions would suggest that oil could cost as much as €5 a litre before 2010.http://www.metric-conversions.org/volume/liters-to-gallons.htm1 litre = 0.2641720 gallonhttp://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=5&from=EUR&to=USD&submit=ConvertE5 = $6.1527$6.1527 = 0.2641720 gallon1 gallon = $6.1527 / 0.2641720 = $23.29 ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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