Gold Today!
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/21/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
DummyANI
(3/21/03; 23:52:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 100063)
@ Rocketman (3/21/03;msg100032
The final dip of COMEX Gold approaching in very near futures
Jim Sinclair predicted in his Q&A that the final support level of COMEX Gold is between $318/ounce and $313/ounce, and its timing is between March 21st and April 7th. We are already experiencing under the support level $330/ounce at March 21st, we can very fortunately catch a chance when we have a gold at the bottom level $318/ounce.
COMEX Gold displayed very rapid movements at several times. From $253.9/ounce ( 1999.07.19) to $326.0/ounce ( 1999.10.06), COMEX Gold went up $72.1 span. This $72.1 span is applied at the top level $390.8/ounce ( 2003.02.05), we gain $318.7/ounce.
More recently, from $390.8 (2003.02.05) to $342.4(2003.02.19), COMEX Gold went down $48.4/ounce. This $48.4 down-leg is applied at the near top level 360.6/ounce (2003.02.25), we gain $312.2/ounce.
I am expecting that the bottom level $318/ounce will be visiting between March 27 and April 1st.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
D-Ani
Black Blade
(3/21/03; 23:18:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 100062)
Pension Accounting Turns $31 Billion of Losses Into Earnings
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APnqdQRVzUGVuc2lv
Snippit:
New York, March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Nine of the largest U.S. companies obscured $30.61 billion in pension-fund losses in 2002 because of an accounting rule, boosting corporate earnings and prompting calls for a change in regulations.
Black Blade: And we thought Arthur Andersen accountants were creative.
Black Blade
(3/21/03; 23:07:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 100061)
Missouri asks to borrow money from federal government to pay unemployment benefits
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/business/5442157.htm
Snippit:
Missouri has asked to borrow as much as $100 million from the federal government to pay unemployment benefits, because the state's trust fund has gone broke.
Black Blade: Broke the bank did they? Some economic recovery. Hmmm…
Black Blade
(3/21/03; 22:57:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 100060)
Market Wrap Up – Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:
It is getting close to the time to be putting new short positions, add to gold and silver positions, and move out of the dollar. Despite money and cordite coming out of the woodworks, and the strongest intervention in the markets seen since the 1987 crash and 1994 peso crisis, technical aspects of the markets look dismal. Put/call ratios have fallen rapidly, the TRIN is low, the advance/decline line has been barely able to rise and volume keeps receding. Daily buying surges and short-covering rallies have barely been able to generate a respectable A/D line, which tells me the markets will soon be heading for trouble. The required 10-k reports for 2002 will be due at the end of this month. The ones I've seen so far speak volumes of future profit problems. This year's profit killer is going to be pension plan contributions. Pension funds are hemorrhaging at the government, state and federal level. They are equally bad at the corporate level. Many pension plans are now so grossly underfunded that it is going to take massive pension contributions to get them even close to covering future pension liabilities. We should soon see all storm fronts start to unite this year as troubles in the financial markets merge with troubles in the economy and the financial markets to form the Perfect Storm. I believe it will be some sort of ten-sigma event coming from either the geopolitical side or from the derivative sector that sets the different storm fronts on a course toward collision.
Black Blade: I would say that's close to the mark. The last couple of weeks have been "interesting" to say the least. I may have under estimated the degree of "irrational exuberance" in the stock and USD markets. From every rational angle there is absolutely no positive piece of data that would suggest that the stock and dollar should be rising while US treasuries, precious metals and petroleum should decline. This is simply a feel good "war rally" based on nothing more that hope and hype. The fact that the Iraqi oil fields have been taken intact does not mean more abundant "cheap" oil will sudden appear in the global market. The Iraqi oil fields and infrastructure has been in neglected and fallen into serious disrepair for many years. These problems will not suddenly go away. It will take years before oil supply can be increased from Iraqi oil fields.
The US dollar and the stock market have now acquired a "war premium" that will blow off in spectacular fashion once the euphoria of victory wears off and the reality of enormous deficits that are now compounded by war and occupation expenses will once again disappoint Wall Street, not to mention corporate earnings dissapointments and a slew of dismal economic data. Today I watched the giddy pinhead commentators and analysts on the CNBC infomercial shriek with glee over low gold and oil prices as evidence that the "bear is dead". These were the same clowns who confidently told shocked investors that there would be a "second half recovery" each of the last three years. Yet I see daily reports of major companies laying off tens of thousands of workers, sequentially lower earnings reports quarter after quarter, rising stock valuations that one would only expect in their wildest hallucinations, record government deficits rising to unimaginable positions, etc. The list goes on and on. When the "war rally" is over there will be one vicious hangover on Wall Street as reality sets in. For the time being of course this also means that we get a window of opportunity to align our portfolios at bargain prices. These are definitely "interesting times".
Gonlyold
(3/21/03; 22:33:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100059)
Gold Price Announcements
Usually, the price POG is rarely mentioned on TV. As I spent time watching the war on TV today, I was amazed at the number of gold price announcements I saw. I have never seen this many announcements on gold since, I don't remember when. No doubt the system was only too eager to advertise the down turn. Some announcers even made a point of informing the viewers that gold usually goes up as a hedge against hard times. Implying, of course, that good times are a comin'. I'm still waiting.
Chris Powell
(3/21/03; 21:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 100058)
GATA to make presentation at Montreal Resources Investment Conference
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1468
GATA delegation will include Murphy, Howe,
Turk, Landis, and Powell at Montreal Resource
Investment Conference April 12-13.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Chris Powell
(3/21/03; 21:48:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 100057)
War is a 'weapon of mass distraction' against gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1467
So say Gold Fields CEO Ian Cockerill and
Tan Range CEO James Sinclair.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Chris Powell
(3/21/03; 21:46:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 100056)
Bob Landis has a new essay about gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1466
It's titled "The Once and Future Money."
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
21mabry
(3/21/03; 21:18:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 100055)
(No Subject)
The kurdish militia and turkish troops are both in northern Iraq,these two groups have centuries of hate towards each other.Keep an eye on that situation.
Daniel Druff
(3/21/03; 20:53:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 100054)
sector
"Debka this evening proffers that Iran may be massing troupes on its border with Iraq."
Hey sector, where's the link...your source is suspect.
Thank you
sector
(3/21/03; 20:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100053)
Russia and Iran may build second reactor at Busher nuclear facility
http://english.pravda.ru/economics/2003/03/21/44809.html
18:32 2003-03-21
At a meeting in Teheran the Russian and Iranian delegations have agreed to carry out a technical and economic assessment of the construction of the second reactor of the Busher nuclear power station in Iran. The construction of the first reactor is in its final stage, the press service of the Russian Atomic Ministry reported. The discussion of this question was held within the framework of the fourth meeting of the Russian-Iranian commission for trade and economic cooperation. The Russian delegation was headed by Property Relations Minister Farid Gazizulin. Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh headed the Iranian delegation. Russian Deputy Atomic Minister Andrey Malyshev, who also took part in the work of the commission, and Iranian experts discussed questions of peaceful use of atomic energy.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Satellite photos of the almost complete Iranian nuclear fuel reprocessing plant have been offered by the US as evidence of the Iranian "threat". Debka this evening proffers that Iran may be massing troupes on its border with Iraq.
The best laid plans.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And on the same url page as above:
19:27 2003-03-21
Russia not going to reconsider atomic energy agreements with USA
No joint Russian-US agreements on the use of atomic energy will be reconsidered in view of the war against Iraq, Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev announced at a news conference in Moscow today.
Rumyantsev believes that the US military campaign in Iraq is definitely "a political mistake". He stressed that the war against Iraq was not justified since Iraq presented no military threat to the world community recently.
silvergolong
(3/21/03; 20:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100052)
We are standing at the brink.
http://www.clifdroke.com/e/e032103_dollar.mgi
We stand at a critical juncture in almost every market--they could turn violently either way. Clif Droke's analysis of the dollar market (link above) is just one example of technical analysis making a valid case for almost any eventuality right now. I am no TA expert, and as such am dependent on sources of TA commentary on the web, but the analysis I've seen on virtually every market seems to be sure about only one thing: we are going to see a very violent move soon--only problem is, no one has a clue in which direction.
How can the US dollar and US equities markets which looked so incredibly sick just 3 or 4 weeks ago suddenly be in a position to make a big move upwards? My guess is that the recently-announced Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan alliance has actually been in full-on pump mode for the last week or two. This has had a significant impact because the Fed is now able to access the BOJ's huge hoard of dollars to take their stock-pumping activities to the next level; i.e. instead of just trying to leverage and mobilize "free market" liquidity via purchase of index futures, they are now in a position to buy equities outright, which is a much more robust and sustainable "pumping" mechanism.
Forget about what is happening in Iraq, the real news this week was the unseen diplomatic battle that has brought the massive japanese dollar hoard into play. If this succeeds--and I think there is a 50/50 chance that it could suceed-- this will be nothing less than a quantum leap in the collectivization and socialization of the global financial markets. It would also put US corporate interests in the drivers seat of the world economy; if the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan "axis of pumping" is successful, US corporations will be in a position to use the resultant strong dollar and bloated equity valuations to implement a hostile takeover of world enterprise. Needless to say, this outcome would be very bad for gold in the short-to-medium term, and truly awful for those of us who want free markets and an end to bloated corporate and government bureaucracies.
The US may have won "round one" but this is not a done deal. The invasion of Iraq has put the "gold and oil" genie back in the bottle, at least temporarily. It is not surprising that the French are leading the opposition, given their past record of actively standing up to US cultural and economic hegemony. It's obvious that the French and their allies have thought this scenario through already. It's France's turn to play a card; what will that card be?
We certainly live in interesting times. Frankly I am a little worried that we have to depend on the French to wave the flag for free markets, but somehow that is the way things seem to have shaped up; and certainly it is fitting considering that France fired the first shot against the anti-gold conspiracy when they broke ranks with the London Gold pool in the 60's!
The endgame it seems is fully upon us.
Daniel Druff
(3/21/03; 20:19:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 100051)
Bill Murphy
"The unprovoked war by the Bush Administration is liable to hasten further the cabal's demise, as the rest of the world revolts against American arrogant imperialism and buys gold." Bill Murphy, from tonight's MIDAS
What a sanctimonious jerk and to think I paid $150 for this trash. His cabal enemies will get their pound of fresh on their way out by having Ghana cxl their deal with Golden Start inorder to salvage Ashanti...guess which tribe runs Ghana. Do you think they're going to let their namesake gold corporation bite the dust while Bill Murphy's favorite stock ascends to the stratosphere. Don't bet on it.
For a guy who was once a Patriot in The American Football League it's a bit ironic that he's become The anti-Patriot Spokesman for the hard money crowd. But I have to admit that this gold weakness brings a smile to my face knowing that some know-it-all types tend to get over extended and forced out of the market. I hope he keeps his GSR.
Thank you
Paper Avalanche
(3/21/03; 19:14:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 100050)
GBPDT
Gold backed pink dollar Thursday is less than a week away.
I may be wrong. I often am.
PA
21mabry
(3/21/03; 19:09:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 100049)
comex
I don't follow the comex that close.I believe they close at noon, I wonder if they will extend trading hours now to try and hammer the metals more?I also wonder if margin requirments will be lessend.The shorts can really unwind their position now if they want to.I will bet their is some happy people at JP Morgan.
CoBra(too)
(3/21/03; 18:39:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 100048)
Even more Random Thoughts ... God forbid!
Though, I promise to keep any further dementia to the recesses of my already affected, nauseated and crippled ganglia.
The total precision of smart bombs, according to Rumsfeld will effect almost negligent harm to the civilians, or some such dovish statement from a known mega hawk, blindsided reality by spectacles of fireworks.
The reality being the economic fundamentals. While the SM's rocketed to spectacular gains, never seen before in such a short period of time, GOLD was trashed as the barbaric relic it was "deservedly" dubbed for so long. Against all logic and historical precedence - and what may be really amazing, in spite of the information era - the dumbing down of the public may have reached cataclysmic proportions. Or to put it more bluntly, smart bombs may have replaced individual reason, responsibility and ethics.
Spending the next (probably many) generation's heritage today may not be the ultima ratio, as can already be seen in the retirement (under-)funding of major companies internationally. Nor can the status quo of a global reserve currency be kept up indefinetely on military power alone.
The division of labor can't ever work on the premise of conquer and divide by itself, ask any Austrian - even if the Habsburg Empire lasted 900 years. Realistic balances and equilibriums have to be maintained in the end.
As it seems, at least to this humble observer, the balances have shifted "topside". The fragility of the "system" is therefor becoming more "delicate" with the day.
Established systems are usually responding to fragility -un-delicately- with sledge hammer force ... until even the anvil is succumbing due to stress and wear.
In "Shock and Awe" on A-Day - seeing GOLD being beaten "smartly" by the usual delinquents, I can only, though, humbly cry out - Thanks for the opportunity!
cb2
Gary Seven
(3/21/03; 18:18:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 100047)
a timely quote, perhaps
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/stott032203.html
"When we buy gold and silver, in spite of the manipulators, we know that we are obtaining something of historic importance and actual wealth, for thousands of years. Surely, the price can go up and down. When it refuses to rise to our satisfaction, we are tempted to get angry and impatient, saying, 'The hell with it, I can do better elsewhere.'
"But to get the vapors now, when gold and silver are at their virtual cost of mining and production, is silly."
A timely quote from Don Stott over at Gold Eagle.
sector
(3/21/03; 18:06:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100046)
Next Friday Will Tell a Tale
If Baghdad Still resists...and if Basra somehow manages to resist...
...and if the Fed keeps burning its golden furniture [And SPR crude reserve]...
Then we will know the US exit strategy.
Take the Middle East's oil in order to dominate the world's principal commerce--energy. For it is certain that Iran is next on the stated "Axis of Evil". Their oil fields aren't that far from Iraq's and on Iran's Eastern flanks, the "Stans" are furiously accepting US bribes and building US military bases.
Drain the gold account to zero. Drain the SPR to zero. Accomplish both so the stock market stays levitated by "Cheap" energy, say $19 per bbl and newfound zero inflation [Using gold as an indicator].
By the time the neighborhood discovers the US has burnt all its furniture we will straddle the world's oil supply and crush anyone who gets in our way. It has all been fortold by the president's magic business binoculars.
The best laid plans.
silvergolong
(3/21/03; 17:50:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 100045)
French currency expert in charge of Saddam exile plan
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/wnt/Primetime/saddamexile_030321.html
Snip:
"Since December, ABCNEWS has learned, an emissary from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been in the middle of the secret offer of exile. American officials say the French go-between, Pierre Delval, an expert on foreign currencies, has repeatedly traveled to Baghdad to persuade Saddam to accept exile in Mauritania."
Isn't it interesting that a foreign currency expert was appointed to manage Saddam's exile?
Was this a French attempt to reason with Saddam regarding the "real" issue for war--i.e. maintaining Dollar hegemony over oil?
Certainly it indicates what the French believe is really going on.
This can't be a coincidence.
21mabry
(3/21/03; 17:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 100044)
MR. GreshamI
Its my sad belief that with control of Iraq and their oil they have a huge wharehouse of furniture to burn, o well there is many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip, or so they say. 21
TownCrier
(3/21/03; 17:48:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 100043)
Can U.S. Treasuries/debt securities "afford" an economic recovery?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030321/markets_bonds_13.html
HEADLINE: Treasury bulls routed as optimists seize the field
NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) -
In what has been the worst week for bonds in more than a year, prices were pummeled while stocks advanced virtually in lock-step with U.S. and British forces.
Ten-year yields have now risen 57 basis points in just eight sessions, a rout so complete it has some reading last rites for the Treasury market's long bull run.
That jump in yields will force borrowing costs higher across the economy and could crimp the boom in mortgage refinancing.
...Equities took the optimistic view and the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 230 points on Friday, bringing its gains for the week to 8.4 percent.
"The collapse in crude oil prices is truly shocking. And in the fixed-income market the shock isn't pleasant."
The ramp up in yields is causing havoc of its own among fund managers and holders of mortgage debt, who had loaded up with Treasuries as a hedge against the early payment of mortgages during the refinancing boom of recent years.
"There's also been a rush of convexity selling from the mortgage guys after a big technical level broke this morning. Sounds like they're in real trouble and are having to dump bonds in a hurry," said one trader, adding that 10-year yields could soon approach the 4.25 percent barrier.
"It's not pretty. There's a lot of red ink on the Street," said BTM's Rupkey. "The bond market is going down hard because there are stop-losses being hit, not just because people think the economy will get better after the war is over.
"Traders' pain threshold has been breached."
--------(see url for this VERY IMPORTANT article)------
I will try to keep this simple. Very simple.
Bear in mind, the Treasury/bond market is huge, much larger than the stock market.
Where will some of the money (trillions) run to as people try to cut their losses on falling bond prices? As interest rates turn upward, it sure won't help the struggling companies listed on the stock market.
Gold becomes king asset. Don't let falling gold prices at this time take your eye off the bigger picture, that is, as the world economies eventually lurch forward (coaxed by profligate government spending and policies for easy short-term money) from the current slump sometime after the noise of war passes.
R.
Mr Gresham
(3/21/03; 17:28:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 100042)
Thanks
I tuned in here only briefly yesterday and found the tone to be calm, sane, and considerate. Amidst all the emotion (and juvenility of pack journalism and sanctimonious nationalism) that is finally having its release, this Forum is showing its maturity, and looking ahead to the developments we have long had eyes upon (as Paper Avalanche suggests).
Volatility. That's for certain. Whether we're right or wrong, over time -- over the PLAYABLE intervals that actually do exist for us peons -- Volatility is about to show itself. These were good bets -- small risks -- major rewards possible -- and others are still at even greater risk in gambles they do not even see.
If we here are hyper-vigilant, too early, whatever, then let us take the breaks we need for mental re-constitution, and return to participate with greater wisdom. For we have seen wisdom precede good market calls in other realms (Nasdaq bubble, USD bubble, etc.) while other juries (bonds, housing, gold) are still out.
All I can say is that these PTB guys are either (1) right, (2) good at re-couping the mistakes of a flaky system, or (3) burning all the furniture in sight (a la sector's analogy) to keep the house warm. If all the lights do go out, at least a few of us will have some candles to burn at night.
They say it is hard for even bears to make money in a bear market. For the system is expunging huge amounts of "money" and so there is way less of it for the bears, however correct their views, to end up with.
It seems that with the gold bull market now, it may be less the increased POG of an inflationary pull than a marking time until the shock wave of a huge deflationary (default) wave hits all shaky "moneys" and leaves gold the only man standing.
Let us watch if the time intervals between volatile bursts in either direction shorten (thus making all waves less playable) arguing for safe physical holdings more than ever. Batten down the hatches!
mikal
(3/21/03; 17:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 100041)
Re: "Shock and Awe"
It's thoroughly disgusting that the mass consumption of media delivered mayhem has served as an unprecedented intoxicant. For example, today they reported that the stock market had it's best week in 20 yrs. I'm not proud of the troops despite any spin.
Come lock me up PTB- some say we're crazy. No way. But new anti-terror laws are being proposed everyday, so I'll shut up when the next one is passed.
Shock and awe is what most will feel when they realize that uncertainty about a war these past months, was NOT the problem. Though I doubt the "polls" that say a majority favor war. But investors have fooled themselves again and again. Reading the monopoly newspaper or Time or watching CNBC or CNN is a hazard to your wallet. Next time it'll be another lie, maybe uncertainty over Korea.
But the bond market won't be pushed around. Derivatives will come home to roost too along with fiat someday. Bonds and interest rates are going nuts, but who cares? That's like telling them the dollar's been going down- the index was over 120- who cares? Inflation is spinned as war or oil related or fear or uncertainty now. But God help us if we get another war or terrorism to add to the mix. Hedonic delators and seasonal filtering reduce CPI and PPI and Social Security payments to gloss over inflation, which Greenspan called "the hidden confiscation of wealth". Gold always follows the fundamentals such as the bond market, with currencies and equities forever swinging in their orbit. THAT'S gravity.
This month is a climax and a turning point for us, despite the casualties to the gold advocate numbers and alleged but illusory balance sheet losses. Damned if my gold isn't worth at least 10 times it's funny money "identity". Never have I been more bullish. Lately every time the Dow does another performance "record" or the S & P or Nasdoggie, things turn out bassackwards. And world markets toe the line EVERYTIME. And to think things are just getting started.
More to come, we've only just begun.
Goldilox
(3/21/03; 16:58:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 100040)
Chirac's objections to US-UK administration of post-war Iraq
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2873701.stm
Certainly not surprising, given his lack of support for invasion in the first place. There is bound to be lots of jockeying for economic position in the vaccuum created by the "decapitation" (this word seems a little gory for World class diplomats to be casually bantering about) of the Iraqy government
snippit:
French President Jacques Chirac has warned he will not accept any UN resolution allowing the United States and Britain to administer post-war Iraq.
Speaking at the end of a European Union summit in Brussels, Mr Chirac said France would reject any moves that "would legitimise the military intervention and would give the belligerents the powers to administer Iraq".
"That would justify the war after the event," he said, describing the US-led invasion of Iraq as a tragic moment that would be likely to have unforeseen consequences.
Waverider
(3/21/03; 16:09:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 100039)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Snip:
"Gold and oil both traded lower as a "war premium" is being priced in the U.S. dollar and in the equities markets on word that Saddam Hussein and his sons are dead or incapacitated. Whether Saddam is dead or not the war is effectively over as no one appears to be in control. A new wave of "irrational exuberance" has shifted the "war premium" from gold and oil to the U.S. dollar and the stock market."
rare gold
(3/21/03; 15:59:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100038)
Point Well Taken Waverider
Thanks for clearing that up. Good day.
Socrates964
(3/21/03; 15:57:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100037)
Russian Propaganda.
Presume you're referring to my post - if you bother to read the Russian article, you'll see that they cite Reuters as the source.
I nevertheless agree with you about gold being cheap.
Goldilox
(3/21/03; 15:36:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100036)
Insanity - Laws of economics
Rocketman -
It just shows to go ya that the old Paul Simon lyric is true:
"One man's ceiling is another man's floor"
Or in the language San Diego county, the home of the largest concentration of casinos outside of Nevada, "That's why they call it gambling!"
I think a number of the sages here have been reminding individuals not to try to play short swings with physical. By the time you drive to the store, it may have turned again. Play the long haul in physical and short haul in paper.
21mabry
(3/21/03; 15:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 100035)
Daniel Druff
I am not surprised by this,its only when you or I deal with the goverment and want to supply a service to them or want employment with them. we are required to enter a competitve bidding process or to score well on their tests.Lets apply these same rules for those companies who will fatten themselves off of the tax payers of the united states armed forces. victory in Iraq. Just my opinion. Did Sinclair or Prechter factor in the war in their predictions, these market conditions are so crazy only the manipulators can make money.
Waverider
(3/21/03; 15:24:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 100034)
Raregold
"You say it's for oil..."
I'll just clarify that in my post I have not stated any personal opinion regarding the war, as per our gracious host's request here. My purpose is soley to provide an article of interest, not to justify a personal viewpoint or dispute other viewpoints. Cheers,
Waverider
Goldilox
(3/21/03; 15:13:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100033)
Next move?
Once OPEC control is quashed, it will be interesting to see if the same price manipulation we've witnessed in the PM markets is duplicated in the fuel markets. This predictable price ranging (at least to insiders) may do more to salvage the dollar in the short term by creating lots of trader's rallies with huge bank backing of major moves (more and more derivatives). Perhaps this is why the banks are asking the FED to remove limits on commodities trading.
I can see one of two scenarios, and I by far and away prefer the first.
1. The PTB lose control of PM manipulation and it soars.
2. The PTB manage to control PM manipulation by overshadowing it with POO manipulations, postponing any great PM reactions.
Rocketman
(3/21/03; 14:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100032)
Insanity
A person's degree of sanity is directly proportional to how in touch with reality they are. Numbers don't lie, so I have to conclude that most of those who post on this chat page are completely out of touch with reality and are therefore insane! Or perhaps reality is somehow being suspended for a while. It appears that the reality, at least when it come to gold, is that gold is an arcane relic and paper rules!
Either what I just said is true, or the rest of the world is out of touch with reality and are valuing gold incorrectly and are therefore insane themselves.
First I thought gold was undervalued at $360, then as it fell, I thought surely we will find support at $350. Well, OK surely $340 will find support. I mean Jim Sinclair said no way, it won't go below $340. Well it did. Now we are below $330 which I thought was the bottom support line. Is the bull market for gold over?
Maybe we should all join the rest of the insane world and short gold. I have to say all my understanding of economics and how the fundamentals of how pricing mechanisms should work are being violated! I think that I am going insane as I am increasingly out of touch with reality.
How long will the laws of economics be suspended for?
rare gold
(3/21/03; 14:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 100031)
Sorry for the typo's
I really do know how to spell but someone switched the keys on me.
rare gold
(3/21/03; 14:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 100030)
Waverider..The Reason for the war
You say its for the oil, man they sure had me fooled. All this time I had thought it was about disarming Saddam of WMD. In other words those 18 resolutions must have been nothing but lies and Saddam must have been telling the truth after all. I bet don't you don't think they'll find any WMD either huh? Well the first southern town of Iraq was liberated today and its reported the Iraq-ie people were dancing in the streets. While the Marines tore down the Saddam signs.
Looks like its going prety sooth thus far, GWB could be a real hero if things keep going like they are. Its always comforting having the real God on your side.
As far as gold goes I'm not worried that its been beaten senseless. I've seen it get back up time and time again. After all when it comes to my PM's its the long haul physical train baby.
Daniel Druff
(3/21/03; 13:59:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100029)
21mabry
Human Nature
We shouldn't be surprised to see the winners doing business with their friends. To do otherwise would support those who would replace them in positions of power.
Good News From Iraq...Sadam did not torture one-single person today.
Thank you
Belgian
(3/21/03; 13:49:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 100028)
Dollar-optimism and euro-pessimism.
The dollar is boosted by the projected succes of a war that hasn't finished yet and a fantasized smooth bonanza of reconstruction. The euro suffers from the negative aspects of the succesful "divide and rule" strategy.
The pro ($) and contra (€), war-parties are all holding their breath and watch the macabre oil-dance. Who will be able to blame who, once the final outcome of this ME-crisis is known ? Or will all parties re-unite and scramble for the oil ?
Much...MUCH too early for any sensible speculation.
Be always prepared to expect the highly probable unexpected, Big turn !
Arabian Oil is on the look out for silent but powerful, convenient partners. Russia ? China ?
Let us not forget that many, many more innocent, ordinary people/families of all nationalities, are going to suffer. Suffering for what ?
Clint H
(3/21/03; 13:40:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 100027)
Russian propaganda.
It is sad when we print Russian propaganda on this forum and young adults buy it W/O question.
What is not propaganda is the fact that gold is a bargain right now.
Waverider
(3/21/03; 13:32:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 100026)
The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
Snip:
"Although completely suppressed by the U.S. media and government, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking -- it is an oil currency war. The real reason for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves. This essay will discuss the macroeconomics of the `petro-dollar' and the unpublicized but real threat to U.S. economic hegemony from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency. The author advocates reform of the global monetary system including a dollar/euro currency `trading band' with reserve status parity, and a dual OPEC oil transaction standard. These reforms could potentially reduce future oil currency warfare."
Waverider: Part I of this essay was posted yesterday by Cobra2. I was going to repost it because it's an excellent read, and found this link which includes the entire essay along with links for some interesting references. Thanks Cobra.
Cytek
(3/21/03; 13:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 100025)
IRAN OIL DEPOT HIT BY ROCKET
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2425376
Oil Depot Hit by Rocket in SW Iran-Sources
Fri March 21, 2003 02:36 PM ET
TEHRAN (Reuters) - An oil refinery depot in southwestern Iran close to the border with Iraq was hit by a rocket on Friday, and two people were injured, Iranian government sources told Reuters.
They said it was not clear where the rocket, which hit the depot in the city of Abadan at around 7:45 p.m., had come from.
Abadan is about 30 miles east of the southern Iraqi city of Basra, and on the opposite side of the Shatt al-Arab estuary from Iraq's Faw peninsula.
The Faw peninsular was secured earlier by U.S.-led forces advancing into Iraq from Kuwait as part of a land attack against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime.
Heavy bombing by U.S. and British forces during that attack earlier shattered windows and caused villagers to flee in panic across the border in Iran, according to the official IRNA news agency.
Iran, which fought an eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s in which hundreds of thousands were killed on both sides, has condemned the U.S.-led attack on its western neighbor, but vowed not to be drawn into the conflict.
Cytek - things are getting interesting.
Cytek
(3/21/03; 13:12:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 100024)
Is it Anthrax?
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2425369
Powdery Substance Found at New York's LaGuardia
Fri March 21, 2003 02:35 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Authorities discovered a suspicious powdery substance at LaGuardia Airport on Friday, partially evacuating the main terminal and treating 10 people who said they felt ill.
The substance was discovered about 1 p.m. during the search of a handbag at an American Airlines section of the terminal, said a police spokesman for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates the city's airports.
Results of an on-site test were inconclusive, and a hazardous materials team was called to the scene to investigate, police said.
Ten people complained of feeling sick and were being treated at the scene "as a precautionary measure," said Frank McCartney, a spokesman for the Office of Emergency Management.
Their symptoms were considered minor, he said.
The terminal was partially evacuated, officials said.
21mabry
(3/21/03; 13:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 100023)
(No Subject)
If Had some dry powder or had not taken a position in the metals yet,I definitly would be buying at these prices and lower.You have to think gold anywhere below 320 is a screaming buy'silver at these levels has to be a buy also,might be able to get rounds way under 5 dollars thats counting your premium.I wish I had 20 grand to spend.
21mabry
(3/21/03; 12:43:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 100022)
sector
I totally agree with your post. Please everyone watch and be aware of the companies that get the contracts to rebuild Iraq,watch who owns them,it will be the usual suspects.This is oil country ,the group running our country are oil men ,bush ,chenny,oil,oil,oil. I am curious about silver'some say its not money anymore,they say its an industrial metall.If that is so it should be rising not falling
Aristotle
(3/21/03; 12:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100021)
What's a COMEX contract worth when doomed counterparties shout, "All bets are off!!"?
It makes long term sense to me. Don't be surprised if brain surgeons are selling those futures down the river. You can't get a sandwich with a broken promise!
The Gold market's reliance on this papery contract item for price discovery is a real peach, ain't it?! Ain't it nifty how the selling of dubious paper at one window can bring a guy more Metal, more cheaply, at another?!! That's a great deal for us Gold Advocates -- buyers and savers -- 'cause as I see it the Real Thing is setting up to shine like nothing else will in the geopolitical and socioeconomic progressions of the post-war world. COMEX volatility can be your best friend if you keep your head and buy your Metal during the paper's heavy selling. Ain't it a peach?!! Chomp chomp!
Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
sector
(3/21/03; 12:21:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 100020)
Reconstruction of Iraq Underway
http://english.pravda.ru/war/2003/03/21/44803.html
16:53 2003-03-21
America hasn't yet destroyed Iraq by bombing, but the US Administration already begins a post-war reconstruction of the country. The situation resembles selling of lots on the Moon very much: purchase of such lots is possible, but at the same time it is very much fantastic.
The US Administration, as a manager of the Iraqi territory can give contracts to the sum total of 900 million dollars exclusively to US companies with a view of "initial reconstruction".
And the situation is spoken about from a humanitarian point of view: as if the matter concerns a new "Marshall plan", more investments in a young Iraqi democracy (but in fact it is not born yet). It is astonishing that objects of "initial reconstruction" are thoroughly studied already and "Iraqi money" is being distributed among friendly corporations.
In what democratic processes exactly are Americans going to invest? To begin with, they will invest in reconstruction of oil objects that Saddam, as supposed, is surely to damage. And quite natural that other objects will be damaged during bombings as well.
Then goes development of the military infrastructure. At that, it has been openly declared already that American army is to come to Iraq to stay there.
There are five American companies that will participate in the Iraqi reconstruction; two of them are the construction firms Bechtel and Fluor, plus the Halliburton oil group. Incumbent vice-president of America Richard Cheney used to be at head of the oil group, which by the way attaches some particular cynical tinge to the situation.
Halliburton representatives admitted that a subsidiary of the company, Kellogg, Brown and Foot "is working on prevention of arsons on Iraqi oil wells." And this statement actually means that American special services are currently working on Mr. Cheney's firm, and special forces will also have to fight under the flag of the oil concern.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Will any of these US "contracts" be regarded as legal in recognized courts?
Clink!
(3/21/03; 12:08:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 100019)
@ Sir Gondolin
You're too modest. That came over just fine.
C!
Maverick1
(3/21/03; 12:07:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 100018)
Media control
I don't know why I even bother to look at CNN anymore. It was decided before hand that the reporters were to get their marching orders along with the troops. Gone are the days of the first gulf war where reporters were greeting the soldiers on the beaches! The reports are as well "combed over" as the Iraqi's. I will say this. Some private, somewhere will expose any serious attempt to "plant" WMD and vindicate this whole effort. I have learned that you can't BS a private who has nothing to lose.
Paper Avalanche
(3/21/03; 12:03:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 100017)
POG going down because people want gold, not paper
Are we witnessing FOA's prediction of the market failing down?
Food for thought.
PA
Gondolin
(3/21/03; 11:57:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 100016)
Dan Druff 99985, Zhiseng 99986
A regular lurker, I'd like to thank all for your wealth of information (and to me crash course education) you provide free to all. I agree with your comments re the relevance of the events unfolding in the Middle East (and especially the role of the US) to this forum and the POG. I will make this book next on my 'must read' list. A quick recommendation for any similarly non-informed readers such as I interested further in the role and affairs of the US in other spheres of the world, and the likely ongoing effects. A very good read is- Blowback:The Cost & Consequences of American Empire, by Chalmers Johnson. This refers to US policy and action, generally covert, across the world and especially in Asia since the end of World War 2, and once (if) the smoke clears from the Middle East, illustrates the likely problems that will return to face the worlds' last & arguably declining Superpower from their actions against other nations both past in Asia and present in the Mid East.
While I'm on the subject, and if I digress or offend anyone, it is unintentional, but am trying to make a point I'm not sure I have the eloquence to put to paper. There are cultural differences between East, West and Mid East, and the US Financial Capitalism and economic system does not take this into account. Can or does the Mid East want to be democratised in the American image. Not disimilarly the US found that SE Asia could not be democratised in the American image, and the American style of Financial Capitalism and Globalisation enforced by the IMF proved unsustainable with catastrophic effects on the wealth of SE Asian nations such as Thailand and Indonesia, not forgetting Japan and South Korea. US policies in Asia since the end of the Cold War will be very relevant with North Korea supposedly next on the US priority list. Economic Terrorism hurts more people than the terrorism the US professes to be ridding the world of now, and resentment is indeed growing,(moreso when you combine military action) worryingly even from those the US considers to be allies. With rumblings about Iran now heard in the Senate how far will the US go on this drive to overcome all obstacles to economic recovery (or should I say survival)? SE Asian nations are unlikely to willingly allow a repeat of harmful US policies against their economies again, and surely other nations are the same. The realisation that the US globalisation policy has bankrupted nations and may well do so to others must lead eventually to a search for an alternative that the US cannot manipulate, much as Argentina is reportedly now looking at a gold backed currency and the Japanese are now turning to saving in gold. The US seems to have only 2 tools in its bag to fix the growing leaks in the economy. If it's unable to use the tool of economic control and manipulation over markets and other nations it leaves only the tool that is currently being exercised in Iraq. Confiscation of a Nations oil first, gold second? The huge expense of overstretching the US war machine into every sphere of the world can only serve to hasten the decline of the US economy, much as in the fall of the Roman and Soviet Empires. The day of the hegemony of the US dollar is surely numbered. The relevance of my somewhat disjointed and (hopefully not too) rabid post? Obvious. Got gold, getting more.
Daniel Druff
(3/21/03; 11:31:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 100015)
War Premium
Gold
What do you think the Iraq Peso is worth right now?
21mabry
(3/21/03; 11:03:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 100014)
(No Subject)
So far things are going great for the powers that be.Their nemesis gold is getting beat up,oil prices are going down,and their paper markets are rising.New fed policy use war when lowering interest rates dont work.
Goldilox
(3/21/03; 11:02:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100013)
Reality TV
21Maybry-
Not much chance of anyone seeing anything on the highly censored "War News". I live in an area not covered by cable, and it's felt like state TV. Today's bombing is the first pyrotechnics we've seen in three days.
Anyone noticed gold is down $8 on the bombing news?
Cytek
(3/21/03; 10:58:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 100012)
Stocks Climb as WAR confidence rises
Stupidity reigns.
- Selectron Wacks 12,000 - Stocks rise
- 30 Oil wells burn - OIL PLUNGES - while at the pump gas prices stay the same.
- Consumers stay home stop spending - Stocks rise
- CPI Rises .6% - Gold breaks it's key support level of $330.
Nothing has changed for the better, infact things have gotten worse and stocks rally. The war premium has come off of gold and the price is going to bouy around and find it's "sounding". So without the war, because it's becoming a non-war so the markets say, how is gold going to suddenly reverse its upward trend now that oil still isn't going to flow any faster than before. And now the level of cooperation we got from frequently friendly nations is now in question. They all hold dollars in reserve. Will the Saudi's give lip service to the "oil in dollars only" game and now move to please all and will move to a dual reserve currency policy of dollars primary and euros secondary.
Every arrogant move we make gets the outsiders to want to de-couple from the dollar. The question is how low will Gold go before this happens.
Daniel Druff
(3/21/03; 10:45:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 100011)
A chance meeting at the paint store
...end of conversation
Mike: Hey Dan, aren't ya glad those Turks aren't getting any money. They get squat!
Dan: I don't really see a problem in paying the Turks; after all, they took a pretty good bath the last time around...Desert Storm.
Mike: Yea, they did lose some money, but hey, they don't want to help us out for political reasons or whatever, so they don't get the bucks.
Dan: Like I said, I don't see a problem. We could just print it up and ship it to them in suitcases or big boxes.
Mike: Yea, they probably wouldn't know the difference.
[huh? Conclusion: The average working stiff has no idea of what money is and why it has value. There is a gigantic economic educational deficit in the world which The School of Hard Knocks will soon address.]
Thank you
21mabry
(3/21/03; 10:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 100010)
INVISIBLE HAND
In all honesty I dont think he has more than 40,000 loyal troops who will fight.He can not fight in the open desert the U.S, would destroy him,he has only one choice to fight in urban enviroments.If he had enough loyal troops he should have tried to slow the coalition advance at Basra the first city he could have fought in.He can not fight the U.S. IN OPEN TERRAIN,he has one choice turn Baghdad into a Stalingrad I dont know if he has enough loyal troops to put up a fight.
The Invisible Hand
(3/21/03; 10:21:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 100009)
But 21mabry
You are presuming that "we" will win the war whereas Waverider has demonstrated that "we" are being sabotaged because the oilfields to which we have no claim nor title are being destroyed.
21mabry
(3/21/03; 08:52:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 100008)
iRAQ AND GOLD
Does anyone have any information on how much gold the sadaam regime has,I do remember he took alot of the Kuwaiti gold in the last war if sadaam has a large hord,do the people of Iraq get to keep it,or will it be brought to the U.S. ? Talk about reality tv, how long until someone sees their loved killed in battle on tv ?
Max Rabbitz
(3/21/03; 08:39:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 100007)
EU leaders summit badly split over Iraq
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-03-20-eu-war-summit_x.htm
"We have been and are still going through a significant crisis," George Papandreou, head of the European Union Foreign Ministers' Council, said Thursday"
"the chasm separating Europe's leaders showed no sign of narrowing. Six of the EU members — Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Denmark and the Netherlands — backed the war in Iraq"
"We have assumed our responsibilities," said Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Anzar. "There were more comfortable options, but we don't want to pass on to the future risks that we should confront in the present."
******
Max: If the Euro is to be tied to the socialist fantasies of France and Germany it must have help from oil. The economies of both countries have been declining for years. Yet the pressure on politicians to maintain/increase social programs increases as their international competitiveness decreases. The danger is that their politicians will be desperate to make deals with any thug who promises euro/oil support. Why would France build a nuclear plant for a brutal dictator with visions of empire when his country has vast reserves of unused natural gas? Same for Russia and the mullahs of Iran. Dollars and Euros should not vie for reserve currency status but kept only as needed for trade. It is unfair to all other nations. Only gold is a real reserve of wealth.
21mabry
(3/21/03; 08:35:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 100006)
(No Subject)
Magistar, I respect your opinion, when there are free and democratic elections in the kingdom the saudis and in the kingdom of Kuwait our allies,I will take note. THE SPICE MUST FLOW
21mabry
(3/21/03; 08:28:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 100005)
(No Subject)
I agree that alot of spains wealth was taken on the high seas,but much wealth reached spain.This wealth flowed thru their hands like water.It was consumed in their wars with the Dutch.The Spanish had no industry the money flowed into those countries whose industries made the goods the spanish consumed. Their nation was gilded with gold on top,but underneath their was nothing of substance. The king of spain I think it was Philip the second,told his explorers,get gold humanly if possible but above all get gold.
Magister Aurelius
(3/21/03; 08:18:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 100004)
21mabry
Of course it can and does. This isn't about the oil, conspiracy theorists and Marxists claim to the contrary, this conflict is part of a greater plan to undo the mess that causes terrorism. The big issue is to democratize the Middle East, to give the unemployed in those countries hope for the future and to allow political dissent in areas other than the mosque.
21mabry
(3/21/03; 08:10:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100003)
(No Subject)
Can the U.S. see past its billfold ?
Socrates964
(3/21/03; 07:34:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 100002)
OIL 2
Of course, there is a clear precedent for this strategy - Spain in the New World.
Most of that wealth was stolen on the high seas by the English and the Dutch, and we know how that one ended.
Will we have a new era of piracy - aimed at supertankers shipping out oil stolen from Iraq/Iran/Saudi - or blowing up pipelines - imagine the cost of defending these. Looks to me that the US is taking on a gigantic security problem.
Socrates964
(3/21/03; 07:09:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 100001)
OIL
If the US ignored the UN on the invasion, I doubt they'll pay much attention on the Euro pricing issue.
The effect of Iraq per se seems to me to be like discovering a big new oil field in Texas - it reduces US imports of oil.
Initially, if the US decides to kill POG by flooding the spot market with Iraqi production (which requires several years of investment), it actually helps the Chinas of this world, which can exchange their toilet paper, sorry, valuable asset-backed dollars for oil - it is rather like the cabal bashing gold - they hold the price down, but feed their reserves to their rivals at a knock-down price.
The obvious conclusion is that they will have to take over enough of the world's oil reserves not only to supply themselves, but to coerce the rest of the world to buy in $$$. To me, therefore, it seems that the invasion of Iraq is only the second step in a series of invasions aimed (a) at stealing oil and (b) getting control of the central banks of other oil producing countries.
The second point deserves emphasis - let's say that Iran cuts a deal to sell oil to Germany - what is to stop it from pricing the deal in euros and saying to the US 'of course we're delighted to price spot in dollars, it just so happens that all our supply is spoken for'.
I'm not sure that the rest of the world has appreciated that the US strategy is not just about oil-fields, it is about total control of oil producers' economies.
misetich
(3/21/03; 06:58:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 100000)
Pension Accounting Turns $31 Billion of Losses Into Earnings
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APnqdQRVzUGVuc2lv
Snip:
New York, March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Nine of the largest U.S. companies obscured $30.61 billion in pension-fund losses in 2002 because of an accounting rule, boosting corporate earnings and prompting calls for a change in regulations.
Verizon Communications Inc., Lockheed Martin Corp., International Business Machine Corp. and six other companies each lost more than $1 billion in pension-fund investments last year, according to footnotes in their annual reports.
Verizon, which lost $4.68 billion, reported a $2.5 billion pension gain. That accounted for 40 percent of its 2002 pretax earnings. U.S. accounting rules call for companies to include estimated pension gains, rather than actual returns, in their income statements. As a result of the rule called FAS 87, the nine companies legally transformed $30.61 billion of pension losses into pretax earnings of $7.9 billion, annual reports show.
..........
None of the nine companies with billion-dollar pension losses disclosed the amount of losses in the management discussion and analysis section of their annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission, most of which were filed in the last three weeks. The losses were included in footnotes to financial statements in those reports.
*********
Misetich
Corporate earnings have been probably overstated by at least 25 to 40% - With sales and activity slowing the fraudlent CEO's, accountants are having difficulties finding hiding spots
Accounting gimmicks such as the non-expensing of options, pension underfunding, off-balance sheet items omissions (SPE's etc) have defrauded investors and as witnessed by the flagrant market intervention by the Japanese and US PPT in recent days - is setting the stage of ANOTHER round of investors portfolio wipeout as investors are being grossly mislead as it creates the illusion and perception of a safety net.
The Greenspan put - which most investors believed in- disappeared - Will the "new and improved" Greenspan put - of printing their way out - work any better as the global economies worsen?
How can a prudent investor protect himself/herself during times of crisis?
Gold - Physical Gold - the unparalled investment choice - at times of crisis
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
VanRip
(3/21/03; 06:31:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 99999)
Changing Iraqi oil payment in euros to dollars
As I understand it, Iraqi oil is paid for in euros. This arrangement has been approved by the UN. It appears the the UN wil take an important role in helping the Iraqi people with this oil money once the war is over and poviding the US and allies are successful.
If the intention of the US is to have Iraqi oil paid for in dollars, does anyone have any idea how the US will accomplish this change, especially since the UN currently endorses the euro/oil arrangement? Won't this create another hornet's nest?
misetich
(3/21/03; 06:26:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 99998)
U.S. Set to Award 7 Contracts for Rebuilding of Iraq - Initial Work Will Go to American Firms
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A665-2003Mar20.html
Snip:
The U.S. Agency for International Development said yesterday that it will shortly award seven contracts to American companies for the initial stages of reconstruction in postwar Iraq -- two of them as early as today.
Justifying the decision to restrict the contracts to U.S. firms, Andrew S. Natsios, the USAID administrator, said one reason is the need for the firms' personnel to have security clearances, because "there are classified documents they have to see."
........
but international criticism erupted after recent news reports that the USAID had limited the selection process for the biggest contracts to a handful of huge U.S. multinational firms, some of which are well connected to the Bush administration. Those firms include a subsidiary of Halliburton Co., the company once headed by Vice President Cheney.
.........
The amount of aid that is needed for reconstruction, although still far from determined, is certain to dwarf the sum that the USAID is planning to spend on the contracts in question, and that is one major reason that U.S. officials say they would welcome involvement by international agencies and other countries. Many experts have cited estimates ranging from $25 billion to $100 billion for the full reconstruction
.........
There's been a worrisome trend we've been seeing, based on what we saw in Afghanistan, where the Bush administration seems to be turning to a small pool of mainly large U.S. contractors for most reconstruction activities."
********
Misetich
They call it "Operation Freedom Iraq" - yet they're poised (if they can get away with it) to award "reconstruction" (they demolish it first) - to a "few" US contractors with close ties to the Administration - and paying them through the appropriation (they call it "oil in trust") of Iraq's oil fields
In the process of opening the oil taps - oil prices are set to "tumble" further of course aiding the US economy- and salvaging the US $
The "perfect plan" to solve all ills -
Of course the Rest of the world does not exist or matter as the propoganda machine is all set to tell 'all' of the great progress and "new freedom" being enjoyed by the Iraqi people
just as Afghanistan is "enjoying" now.
Will they get away with it? Lets stay tuned as we watch the "perfect plan" being excuted
Walter Mitty used to dream that way to...
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(3/21/03; 06:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 99997)
Cautious Firms Pull Ads, Ban Travel
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A675-2003Mar20.html
Snip:
AT&T put a stop on telemarketing calls for at least 24 hours. Lockheed Martin planned to unveil a print ad campaign showing support for the troops. General Motors has banned travel, except with special permission, to about 80 countries, mostly in the Middle East and Asia.
Just one day into a war with Iraq, businesses big and small were maneuvering to implement new procedures to protect their employees, reassess their investment and expansion plans, and reformulate marketing plans for proper tone.
********
Misetich
The stock markets "rallies" Oil prices are tumbling down - as the Japanese and US PPT 'manage' the financial markets- yet economic conditions are deteriorating
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(3/21/03; 05:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 99996)
Victory will bring no clarity for the markets
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1045511932904&p=1012571727092
Snip:
First, there is a not insignificant risk of new terrorist attacks on the US, or on its citizens overseas. Such attacks could delay any resurgence in consumer confidence.
Second, it is still not clear what impact the US's clash with Germany, France and other countries over war with Iraq will have on the western alliance. Will the clash lessen co-operation or trade and other security issues? Will France and Germany now exclude Britain from important decisions on Europe's future? Will the United Nations be less effective at resolving new crises, such as the one now pending over North Korea?
Third, what will be the cost to the US budget deficit and current account deficit of the country's new international role as a superpower acting unilaterally? The financial markets are concerned about US assertiveness because they perceive it could be opening the door to a new age of imperialism, with significant economic consequences.
.........
During the cold war, America's allies often helped to shoulder the burden of US military spending. Germany had a formal offset programme in which it stockpiled dollars at the Bundesbank in order to offset US defence expenditure. During the Gulf war of 1991, the US received huge subsidies from Japan, Germany, the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia to pay for the cost of evicting Mr Hussein from Kuwait.
The US will receive no subsidies to pay for the current war. If the occupation meets great resistance and proves to be expensive, the US will have to assume all of the costs.
........
Many Europeans think the US hopes to make money from the war by exploiting Iraq's oil reserves; but Iraqi oil production is worth only about $25bn a year - or just 25 per cent of the cost of the projected war.
..........
The sustainability of the market rally will hinge upon how the US reconciles its new imperial ambitions with the realities of large fiscal deficits and unprecedented current account deficits
*******
Misetich
The financial burden on the US and its lapdogs will prove out to be overwhelming - as the rest of the world digs - political confrontations - arms buildup - arms race - will create further havoc for the global economies -
Japanese banks are in a financial mess - The US unemployment picture is getting uglier - US housing bubble -GSE's and US $ are bubbles and are an accident ready to happen - Europe is on the brink of recession -
It is doubtul corporate earnings will rise to meet stock market investors expectations in this scenario - though a bear market rally is in the works - before new lows are established again
The Big Bad Bear is still hungry and waiting patiently for ANOTHER assault
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(3/21/03; 05:32:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 99995)
Airline to Drop 1,200 Jobs as Part of Cost-Cutting Plan
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/20/business/20AIR.html
Snip:
Continental Airlines said yesterday that it would eliminate 1,200 jobs over the next several months as part of a broad cost-reduction plan that would try to cut expenses $500 million a year.
***********
Misetich
Iraq's invasion - and quest for the alleged appropriation of Iraq Oil Fields - creates additional woes for the belegueared airline and tourism industry.
The Layoffs Bone Pile will swell in days,weeks and months to come as the realization of a "perfect victory" will be muddled in fights and counter fights regarding Iraq's Oil Fields and contracts at the UN for months - paralyzing the global economies.
The "might" of Japan and the US in manipulating the markets will dissapate as the trend - economic slowdown - is too powerful to be "managed" - Oil prices will RISE in weeks to come to replenish the strategic reserves being used currently to dampen prices.
Of course things could get really ugly for the global economies if Iraq is able to prolong the battle and/or force a guerrilla warfare
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
Socrates964
(3/21/03; 04:40:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99994)
Pratice your Russian
Ah, Cyrillic doesn't work - here's the link
http://www.gazeta.ru/2003/03/21/last80548.shtml
Socrates964
(3/21/03; 04:39:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 99993)
Practice your Russian
From Gazeta.ru
My Russian not so good, but seems to say that column of Marines hit by Russian-made missiles just inside the Iraq-Kuwait border.
No mention of this in US press...
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(3/21/03; 04:32:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 99992)
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