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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/21/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

ElGordo (01/21/03; 23:46:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 95175)
Energy supplies tight world-wide
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy&middle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APi4ayBSxSmFwYW4g
Inventories of kerosene, used as a heating fuel in homes, fell 4.3 percent last week from the week before while stockpiles of C-grade fuel oil, used to run oil-fired power plants, fell 1.2 percent.
----
On Jan. 15, temperatures in Tokyo dropped to 3.9 degrees Celsius while temperatures in Osaka, Japan's second-largest business center, fell to 2.9 degrees Celsius driving up demand for kerosene and gas, competing fuels for heating homes and offices.

Demand for C-grade fuel oil has surged since September after Tokyo Electric Power Co. shut nuclear reactors and started oil- fired plants, after admitting it doctored nuclear safety documents for a decade.
______________
BB: Japan and Europe should also be drawing down stocks with
cold weather. Tomorrow the pilots in Venezuela will vote on
going back to work I read. Oil flows will not be back to normal
for quite a while in any case. The drama unfolds.

Mr Gresham (01/21/03; 23:32:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 95174)
physicalman: Wow!
All that info -- and comment. Thanks! Really puttin' it out there!

Echo your thoughts about our host. When PMs take off, the market will crowd with "dealers". (Every corner bank and pawn shop will become a "market-maker".) It is during these thankless times, "before the Gold Rush", that true mettle shows itself.

They are sticking their necks out -- and taking risks -- for our ultimate benefit. And -- politics being what it is -- there will be many trying to horn in on the profits when it is these worthy folks who should be getting a lion's share.

I am sorry for my pessimism, but I fear MK's noble efforts may one day have to go into the "no good deed goes unpunished" storybook, and we all will be left with "once we knew a shining spot..." I hope, for fairness' sake, that they reap many fine rewards now, after persevering through 20 years in the wilderness.

A Canadian (01/21/03; 23:10:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 95173)
SILVERADO SHENANIGANS
Moral of the story: Have FUN with gold stocks, protect your LIFE with physical.

Trapper (01/21/03; 22:44:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 95172)
@ Leigh
Thanks for the heads up on the Silverado Mine story...just put in my sell order. I hated to as I made some real cash on that one. In the up coming rush stocks like that go up to 10 baggers and more...oh well at least I didn't lose all my investment. Thanks again for keeping us informed, "live small".
RJ


physicalman (01/21/03; 22:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 95171)
silver
Hi again everyone. Sorry i did not post the silver figures i promised Sunday night. Two sick parents and 14 hour shifts caught up with me.
There was a post, i believe Last Thursday that stated the US Mint has coined 1 billion oz. of ag over the years and i thought the figure was low. I had added up US Mint silver usage for coin production back in 2000 and put it on a disc so here it is
There are no totals before 1857 added into the totals becuase coins from before had a higher percentage of silver and many were melted and/or ended up overseas. Also the grand total will not include proofs,early comm.,modern comm., or the new silver American Eagles (was on another disc and cannot find it yet)
3 cent silver---150,150 oz.
half dimes---1,072,500 oz.
war nickels---41,608,004 oz.
early 10 cent(1857-1891)---13,767,325 oz.
barber, mercury dimes---227,684,975.5 oz.
roosevelt dimes---467,996,100 oz.
20 cent pieces---193,742 oz.
early 25 cent(1857-1891)---18,591,903 oz.
barber quarters---47,313,992.5 oz.
s.l quarters---40,534,243.75 oz.
washington 25 cents---679,244,458.75 oz. (1932-1964)
early half dollar---33,669,115.5 oz (1857-1891)
barber 50 cents---48,617,140 oz.
w.l. halves---173,530,500 oz.
franklin halves---172,214,900 oz.
1964 kennedy halves---154,976,250 oz.
ken. clad halves---126,918,880 oz. (1965-1970)
seated and trade dollars---30,916,390.5 oz.
morgan dollars---464,085,765 oz.
peace dollars---116,966,135 oz.
total---2,860,052,466.5 oz.
Now we have to deduct about 150 million oz. ag. of Morgan dollars that were ordered melted down due to the Pittman Act of 1916 and if you add in the commemoratives, all proofs since 1857, earlier silver before 1857 (figure about a third of it still exists) and the Eagle coins total will be about 3 billion oz. of ag. has been used by the US since 1792 for coinage
Where am i going with this is that of all the silver mined in history (40.5 billion oz.) US alone used 7.4% of that for our circulating coinage, (used 55% of that total from WWII on) Here are some guesses as to whats left:
Lost change 1%
wear 5-7%
recent coins melted 1976- 1980 60%
m,p dollars melted in 1976-1980 7%?
A lot of the rounds and smaller bars we hold now are from this melting period. Also since then a lot of collectors coins are spread in many more hands. Those of use holding any position above hobby status are probably 1/10 of 1%. The vast majority of melted coins and jewelry, antiques went into larger bars and that along with what Central Bankers/governments held is what has been supplying the deficit for the last 12 years.
What a rich country we once were,think of it! 7.5% of all the silver ever mined was our lower denominated coinage! At the end of WWII we held 1/3 of all the gold ever mined in history in our Central bank reserves plus what was not turned in by the citizens in 1933 (which i think was substantial when you look at the quantity of nice early gold that is available). What has happened to us? Where did it all go? Our govt. and most of its citizens over time have traded our future and security for cheap oil and the right to kick back and take it easy for a couple of generations. What has it got us, i'll tell you what 36 trillion in debts, no jobs and an increasingly hostile planet for when we quit giving them the shiny yellow and handed them green pine potato chips with no.s on them over 30 years they have started to find out that the race horse is a swayback old, wore out plow horse.
I'll tell you folks that i have been a dealer before and there is no way that i would sell any physical now (i see nothing but upside potential) Our fine hosts here are MarketMakers working on a tight ratio. They buy and sell in all markets (up or down) and we must be loyal in our support of them. If we don't have confiscation and/or anarchy and the price levels go to the heights that we hope these guys will be here to buy as well as sell as we all have dreams of a little more comfort if possible from our investments. Also remember that if things go badly that we must not forget our bretheren for they will need our help as never before and finally take heed of BlackBlades closing comments on most of his posts as they ring so true in being ready for all situations


Buena Fe (01/21/03; 22:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 95170)
GoldnSilver & ElGordo & VSE RAMBLES
having invested through the Canadian junior markets (vse-ase-cdnx-now tsx.v) for over twenty years i consider them to be the best run "venture" exchanges in the world. (not perfect), compared to the otc:bb ... infact there is no comparison imho. from order management (full order book disclosure and time/price integrity/equality) to mostly reasonable survielance, they're a ten in my book.

i've met some of the best people in Vancouver and some of the worst! the only difference between the crooks in Vancouver and the crooks in New York or London or Tokyo is the size of their cheque books! Enron vs Bre-x pick your flavor of cod-liver oil. (i believe that bre-x would never have gotten as far as it did HAD it traded on the VSE!, TSE got "randy" for the great action and invited them off the ASE if i remember correctly)

AALLLLLLLLLLL investing is risky and i wish all exchanges would promote that more openly, i think governments selling savings bonds with ads showing parents holding babies saving for their childs future is an atrocity if you've done your history lesson and realise that the state/soveriegn has been the absolute worst creditor throughout mans feeble existance.

i love this developing gold market because it is becoming the "GREAT EQUALIZER", remember ... all men must change their underwear, (its my way of saying that all people are equal under God, or gold for that matter, ha ha) bush and saddam too.

looks like "the greenspan" is almost over. pharoah of texas is repeating the same mistake, i know you're all watching for the unexpected, how bout the collapsing of and empire?

how'd i get this far down this rabbit trail?

love you all on the "TRAIL"!

back to work

Gandalf the White (01/21/03; 22:38:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 95169)
WAY ta GO, SPOT and SPIKE !! OVER $360 and now a rest !
http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iI
Hold the LINE at near $360 tonight and TOMORROW in NY get ready for the PAPER AVALANCHE --- THEN you can BITE 'em !!
"TO THE MOON, Alice !"
<;-)

Black Blade (01/21/03; 22:31:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 95168)
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm

Jim Puplava has a good read on the Wall Street "shell game" and the phoney measures used. It does demonstrate that the US economy is looking rather sick while the the primates play silly games trying to decieve the gullible investors.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (01/21/03; 22:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 95167)
Gold Trending Up
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

The upward trend on the gold chart looks good. What a surprise when I returned from the gym to click on the net and see gold knocking on $360. With the USD in position to go sub 100 and US dollar investments going south it should get very interesting. I suspect once the USD 100 barrier is pierced we should see gold move solidly above $360 and perhaps set a new floor if it can hold for a couple of NY trading sessions. The Japanese could be the fly in the ointment if the MOF decides to go all out and prop up the dollar. It will fail of course as it has previously but the Japanese economy is on the ropes, the banking sector is insolvent, and the government will be grasping at straws instead of biting the bullet and undertake much needed reforms. It looks like I will have my work cut out for me as I do some research on the markets tonight. Maybe James Turk's "Fear Index" is about to be tested.

El Gordo – I haven't looked into the Venezuelan proposal yet, however, if Jimmy Carter's only proposal is to have elections in August that won't likely end the strike. There has to be more to it than that. This proposal has already been floated by Chavez as per his claims about the Constitution only allows a new election in August at the earliest (a constitution that he changed after closing down the Legislature). The strikers want elections now and besides they just don't trust Chavez as they fear he will renege on any promises and they view him as one with aspirations to be the next Fidel Castro. It also appears that the Tanker Pilots who were supposedly ending their strike are 11 pilots in one limited body of water and the opposition leaders were last reported to be on their way to discuss the strike situation with them. When this was reported earlier today the price of oil fell but recovered late in the session when it was realized that that this was really not a widespread end to the strike. Another point is that much of the damage done to the fields, pipelines, etc. (not to mention a recent refinery fire caused by inexperienced replacement workers) will take several months to repair. Many oil wells may never be recovered after having been shutdown. It should be interesting to see if anything develops or if the situation deteriorates. It could get very ugly and even result in civil war. In the meantime record low US oil inventories are shrinking and will add more pressure to the US (global) economy.



sector (01/21/03; 21:53:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 95166)
@CavenMan Jeeze! A Hampton Inn
There's Not Even a chin-up bar in those things
And the doughnuts are as hard as bagels.

What a trouper!

otish mountain (01/21/03; 21:47:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 95165)
@GoldnSilver & ElGordo
If I may comment on some remarks concerning the Vancouver Stock Exchange.

You're painting the VSE with a very broad brush, like if its the only exchange that has ever had stock scams. Vancouver is head office for many sucessful Jr. & Sr. miners and may be the venture raising capital of the world for the mining industry for precious and base metals. Its called free enterprise and yes risks are higher but the rewards can be greater as well. The "well known" miners depend on the Jrs. and the explorers for supplies of new reserves. They serve each other.

This isn't the 60's anymore, we've got this internet tool for due diligence. We are impowered. Then attend a 'gold conference' and talk to 80-120 miners with their staff, promoters, geologists, and associated brokers. Pure capitalism. (I hope thats still politically correct).

The VSE doesn't exist anymore, a few years back it joined with the Alberta Stock Exchange to form the Venture Exchange. As well Bre-x traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Cavan Man (01/21/03; 21:43:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 95164)
Hey sector......
Help I'm trapped in a Hampton INN in DFW and I can't find a bar. Seriously.....thank for your "heart".

Trojan (01/21/03; 21:37:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 95163)
Barrick Shareholders, Not A Good Article
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/fekete012303.html
I just read this excellent piece by Fekete.

If you haven't read it as yet you will find it quite informative and interesting.

The point about Farmers and the sale of wheat and the One Year forward sales rule should be set for Gold also. How come it is not ?

sector (01/21/03; 21:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 95162)
@Black Blade and Dollar Bill On the Fed and the "Gold Standard"
There are many ways for the Fed to profit
First, one should appreciate that a gold standard doesn't necessarily mean a fixed gold price.

Indeed, we have had a defacto gold standard with a kind of fixed-price since 1996. It was implemented as a controlled gold price that was turned from an up-trend in June 1996 into a down trend until early 2001. A low general price benefit plus a windfall in capital gains taxation flowed to Washington.

The sale of 16,000 tonnes of central bank gold was all it took. Never mind the pent-up macroeconomic consequences of a rigged metals market, which has masked rampant inflation, extended the life of an already too old dollar and sets the stage for massive social unrest when the population catches on.

The Fed, however, isn't stupid. They and their ant-like economists know from history and the G-10 Bank for International Settlements golf forward and swap accounts, that a primary up-trend in gold cannot be stopped TWICE. So they are steering the gold bull higher with a gold fuel gauge running on empty.

They should also know that they might profit as a paper-generating machine from a rising gold price. Thus, they plan the dollar/yen devaluation and talk nostalgically of "Gold Standards".

They are going to make money on the gold rocket.




Trojan (01/21/03; 21:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 95161)
TownCrier #95125 The Spike Over $360 Spot
Is it possible that the 16 Billion put in today has anything to do with SPIKE and SPOT ?

Just wondering ?

Thanks for any thoughts on this subject.

R Powell (01/21/03; 21:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 95160)
Dollars and pennies
Now Kitco has gold up $3.00
And silver up $0.03.

I'd love to see silver above $6.00 but if she can only gain a penny for every dollar up in gold, then ...

Hey Gandalf, are the dogs getting a good well-balanced diet? Vitamin suppliments and heartworm pills? Perhaps some extra red meat? Do they have enough blankets at night in this cold weather?

canamami (01/21/03; 20:53:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 95159)
Trostel heirs....
...are probably very, very happy right now.

ElGordo (01/21/03; 20:53:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 95158)
Nearing 361
Houston, do you have a launch schedueld tonight?
Somebody knows something!

Truthcaster (01/21/03; 20:51:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 95157)
360.00 spot
Just hit 360.00 spot
Maybe tomorrow will be a good day!

R Powell (01/21/03; 20:50:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 95156)
Dollar Bill
Dollars and gold
As I understand the situation, the dollar is no longer "as good as gold" simply because there are way too many dollars OR there is not enough gold. In fact, the ratio isn't anywhere near equal until most dollars are withdrawn or the POG reaches well beyond the moon.
Maybe someone can provide a POG figure that would balance the "reported" gold stores with the amount of outstanding dollars. We see this number every so often. It would become outdated as soon as Town Crier reports that more fiat has been made. He reports often, consistently, reliable, almost like clockwork or the steady sounds of a printing press.
POG was up almost two bucks last time I looked, silver up only 2 cents. (:>(
Rich

ElGordo (01/21/03; 20:50:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 95155)
Jump Spot Jump
Spot is playful and Spike might join the fun!
Over $360 Yeppaaa

Dollar Bill (01/21/03; 20:46:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 95154)
Sinclair perspective
Excuse the multiple postings.
Sinclair said this recently, can anyone elaborate?

Greenspan, in his December 19, 2002, speech told us that there is a rescue mechanism for the US dollar when it needs to be utilized. That device is GOLD. Here and now, I want to go on record telling you that Gold is coming back into the US Dollar within five years. Its form of remonetization will be a modernized and revitalized Gold Cover Clause not tied to interest rates, as it was as in 1929 - 1930 as the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, but tied to the ability to expand M3 directly

Dollar Bill (01/21/03; 20:04:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 95153)
Is this explainable?

"If my analysis is in the right ballpark and Greenspan from now on uses the gold price to guide his monetary policy, no further significant increase in the price of gold should be expected. If demand for the U.S. dollar continues to drop, the Fed will issue treasury bonds, and if it rises, it would buy them or other government bonds. Once the U.S. dollar becomes "as good as gold," even if informally, and with the present fiscal stimulus, capital will flow to the U.S., the euro will weaken, and so will the Canadian dollar."

Reuven Brenner, a professor at McGill University's Faculty of Management, is the author of Force of Finance. He is a member of the Financial Post's Board of Economists.



Leigh (01/21/03; 19:34:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 95152)
Big Earthquake in Mexico City
Sierra, are you OK?

Dollar Bill (01/21/03; 19:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 95151)
CoBra(too)
Thank you for the qoute, but he is assuming a lot and I disagree

"The policy of the U.S. central bank is going to destroy the dollar. Confidence in the U.S. currency at some point will collapse, and you'll have a run on dollars. Money can't go to other currencies, because they have to support the dollar. Gold will act as a monetary currency - a currency without the liabilities of ill-guided central bankers"

If the other currencies have to support the dollar, then the central banks will continue to support the dollar as they are now. Those that also decide the fate of the dollar, oil countries, they look to the american military for security and who is to replace the american security?
France daydreams of building a navy, where will they get the money? Say they do, when is this navy going to be built? The guys that handle the importing and exporting of goods amongst countries, THEY are big factors in the world economy and currency choice, they wont go for gold currency.
The dollar had an inflation rate of 15% in 1979, according to the book "The Fed".
Perhaps the zurich gold guy you quoted is not considering very many factors in his analysis.


Gandalf the White (01/21/03; 18:52:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 95150)
CALM Down SPIKE !! You've been watching a YOYO too much !
http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=1&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iI
UP through $359 and then back to $358.5 !!
IS $360. going to be broken this evening ?
SURE, WHY NOT !
<;-)


GoldnSilver2002 (01/21/03; 18:45:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 95149)
The vancouver stock exchange is known to be dicey aka bre-x
Yes at the vancouver gold conference i heard chapman had been run out of town for stock scams.And yes guys like cliff droke are nothing but pump and dumpers.They write up any old beat up stock they can get for real cheap,it goes up wildly for 1 or two days and then suddenly the volume dries up and she crashes.Lets face it penny stocks are dangerous,better to stick to the well known ones.

misetich (01/21/03; 18:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 95148)
Merrill Lynch: Fund Managers Remain Shy On Stocks
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=2&ts=1043162760000
Snip:
LONDON, Jan. 21 (MktNews) - Global Fund managers are a shade more
confident about the global macro backdrop and what it means for
equities. However, historically low cash levels are limiting their
ability to add to equity positions, according to the Merrill
Lynch Fund manager Survey for January.
David Bowers, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch
said of the survey's findings, "Either this is a very cheap market,
where high levels of risk aversion are preventing proper allocation of
capital to equities, or else this is a market in which fund managers are
already fully invested in the belief that it is cheap ... time will
tell."

The fact that fund managers have consistently retained their
allegiance to equities rather than switching to bonds or the growing
trend toward corporate bonds is not surprising, given that the main
focus of the Merrill survey, which talks to 481 fund managers and asset
allocators managing $780 billion, is essentially equities.
Over the last two years the survey has steadfastly remained
faithful to equities as an asset class, despite falling stock markets.
..........
At the same time the levels of cash fell again, down to 4.2% from
4.4% in December and 4.6% in November. Merrill said that expectations
for the cycle continue to improve, but lacked conviction. It's now
long-term core theme of balance sheet rebuilding continues, with
investors wanting companies to repay debt.
**********
Misetich

Fully invested and no cash to buy "cheap" valued Dow and Nasduck stocks.....

Got a funny feeling that if they like stocks priced at these values they're going to love it 20-30% lower

Lets stay on the deflating stock value trail

Got gold?


ElGordo (01/21/03; 18:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 95147)
Chavez accepts Carter plan
Breaking BBC
Under the plan Chavez would face vote in August. Strike would end
now.

ElGordo (01/21/03; 18:05:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 95146)
Coldest air yet for NE this Thur Fri
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=1
That giant sucking sound is Natural Gas coming out of storage.

ElGordo (01/21/03; 17:51:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 95145)
Whoa Chapman and Tice (prudent bear fund) caught in scam
@ leigh
I visit worldnetdaily often, just saw your link. Its amazing
that this story is featured so prominently. I looked at
Silverado a few weeks ago. I was interested in the new coal
tech they talk about and then I noticed a correction they made
in a news release saying that the company actually had no
ownership in the tech, it was their VP that had ownership of
patent rights. For months they had sucked in investors indicating
it was silverado the company that had the rights to the clean
coal technology. This company is VERY odd.

I see Chapman was promoting it, there goes his reputation!
I will never take him seriously again. As far as Tice of Prudent
Bear Funds, wow, they are in Silverado for 1 million shares plus
1 million warrants I believe. What a disaster. How could he be
snookered by Silverado like that that? That Goldseek site has also
been heavily promoting Silverado and several analysts on it have
been pumping a lot of weird small gold companies.

The prudent bear fund is going to wind up looking like a bunch
of morons on the front page of the WSJ one of these days! lol
Too bad. Watch out for companies listed on the vancouver exchange,
thats for sure. The mainstream media is going to take a swing
at goldbugs soon I bet. The fact that Tice got snookered is quite
a story. Trouble in bugland for sure.

CoBra(too) (01/21/03; 17:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 95144)
@ TC - A quote from Felix Zulauf ...
Maybe one of the last 'gold gnomes' of Zurich.

"The policy of the U.S. central bank is going to destroy the dollar. Confidence in the U.S. currency at some point will collapse, and you'll have a run on dollars. Money can't go to other currencies, because they have to support the dollar. Gold will act as a monetary currency - a currency without the liabilities of ill-guided central bankers."

That's intended as a response to the 16 tons - as long as all the participants to the fiat fraud are playing along and may even - "have to" support THE RESERVE CURRENCY in the complete lack of other FIAT to fill the void ... it is prol'ly not as important to figure out the exact destiny of any FED created paper out of foul air. (Wow, that's a late nite super long creation of a short sentence! Sorry).

So, here you've got it "Gold will act as monetary currency" ... and as long as you can accumulate some with your fiat on the cheap side - hurry up, before it's all gone ... cb2



Rock (01/21/03; 17:31:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 95143)
No wonder Paul O'Neil Got The Ax
His quote from the Guilded Opinion, "[the country is] on the edge of a golden age of prosperity..." --Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, June 24, 2001

Wow, what planet does he live on?

TownCrier (01/21/03; 17:10:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 95142)
CoBra(too) on Greenspan's 16 billion offspring
Candidly, it is probably too early for reasonable speculation along the lines of the article you cited regarding the propping of foundering funds. Overnight repos as we see here alone wouldn't make an effective prop -- no more than an icicle cane to an old man in sunny Sarhara.

Tomorrow's action may be more telling about the nature of the cash need, particularly with respect to ruling out any one-off effects of a Wednesday-ending reserve maintenance period that might have simply caught the banks behind on their position. Ah, the wonders of time.

R.

goldquest (01/21/03; 17:04:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 95141)
U S Dollar
about to fall through 100.00. Gold is going to head north rather quickly.
Simple solution to war: Pay Saddam $20 Billion, plus travel expenses, to leave town. Saudi Arabia can let him bunk with Edi Amin until Saddam can find gainful employment. U S saves billions in war costs and human costs. With all of the war savings, pay the new Iraq dictator the going cost for his oil. All of the military might, gathered in the Gulf area, can buy souvenirs and return home. Everybody lives happily ever after, including gold bugs who wisely accummulated gold in all forms, knowing that the economy is still going to hell in a hand basket! Do your own DD!

Rock (01/21/03; 17:04:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 95140)
Admin
Thanks for throwing in the gold flag. Sometimes its easy to deviate from said content due to the passion of the moment. Sir Mk, I'll make sure I abide by the rules of the castle.

Even though earnings so far pretty much fell in line with the street estimates the market has ignored it. Tomorrow we have some more big hitters reporting, it should be interesting.

Cavan Man (01/21/03; 16:46:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 95139)
Hi CB(too)
The link is not working properly.

Cavan Man (01/21/03; 16:45:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 95138)
MK
Critically view the world through a golden perspective right here and right now. That's what it has always been about. Kudos to USAG.

CoBra(too) (01/21/03; 16:44:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 95137)
An excellent Essay by Prof. Antal Fekete ...
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/passiton.cfm?PID=2762An excellent
... As it was reproduced on several sites already, I've felt it's OK to reproduce it here as well.
The message for starters is the fact what futures markets are supposed to do. And more to the point in agricutural economies farmers never allowed to short more than one years produce. This was also true for metals and has been adopted as a iron rule to any commodity exchange.

What and when and why was cast in iron rule broken - in particular in terms of Gold and other precious metals. Remember the Hunt Silver (legit!)corner in 1980 and/or Warren Buffet's Silver scare off or the PT/PD default of Tocom recently.

Is this the kind of default we can expect at the LBMA and COMEX presently? cb2



MK (01/21/03; 16:37:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 95136)
Cavan Man
We are not aspiring to 100% gold content, but the discussion should at least relate to the economy, political-economy, etc. What we don't want is for this to become a battle ground between those for or against the war; those for or against the United States. That was getting old in a hurry. We need content. You know -- advancing the overall information/knowledge level for all concerned. I think you know where we're coming from.

Galerider (01/21/03; 16:37:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 95135)
CURRENCIES
Question. Are there any currencies out there that are truly safe havens? Gold backed? Russian ruble perhaps?

Leigh (01/21/03; 16:27:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 95133)
Silverado
http://www.worldnetdaily.com
Big article on Silverado. This is the headline story on a very popular online website.

Black Blade (01/21/03; 16:21:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 95132)
SBI slashes interest on gold deposits from 4% to 1.25%
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?artid=35105973

Snippit:

The Gold Deposit scheme, which was launched by Indian banks with much fanfare, may be awaiting a quiet burial. SBI, which accounts for over 95 per cent of such deposits, recently slashed the interest rate it offered just 1.25 per cent from 3-4 per cent. After the cut, gold deposits will attract a 1.25 per cent return irrespective of the maturity, against the earlier 3-4 per cent applicable for deposits of 3-7-year maturity. The rate cut is linked to returns on such products internationally. And, the move reflects SBI's reluctance to pursue a scheme which failed to take off. "It's not worth pursuing the scheme, given the reluctance among Indian savers to part with their jewellery. To date, SBI has collected just 7 tonnes of gold," said an SBI official. The objective was to attract privately-held gold, reduce the country's reliance on imports and provide owners with an additional income, besides freeing them of hassles like storage and security. "Even at 3-4 per cent interest, the jewellery holders never found the scheme attractive, and now the slashing of interest rate may prove to be a death-knell for the scheme," says gold analyst Madhusudan Daga. According to the SBI official, the poor quality of Indian gold was also an issue. "Very often, the assayed value of gold arrived at by SBI was less than what the depositor claimed," he said. The scheme required SBI to accept gold jewellery from depositors, offering the prevailing interest on the assayed value and giving back hall-marked gold on maturity of the deposit.

Black Blade: I had noted here before that this scheme (scam?) was doomed. They grossly under estimated the Asian cultures affinity to physical ownership. In a culture where government and institutions are viewed with suspicion it was obvious that this plan was flawed from the start. Now the bank appears to have thrown in the towel. My congratulations to the Indians who were not gullible to fall for this scam. Another point that I find odd is the typical disinformation about declining buying of gold in India. Rural Indians buy gold as they harvest crops and sell gold for new planting. Gold is a savings account to them much as a bank account is to western cultures. Unfortunately the anti-gold crowd will not disclose that part of the story but rather attempt to paint a different story about the gold market "losing luster" and other such absurdities.

Off to the gym!



CoBra(too) (01/21/03; 16:17:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 95131)
@ Admin - Thanks for the Reminder
You couldn't have said it in a more civil way and BTW Gold is up today. Get u some cb2

Cavan Man (01/21/03; 16:03:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 95130)
A unilateral attack......
.....on Iraq without UN benediction will render the UN redundant and impotent (that's perhaps a good thing I suppose). This is AU positive.

Feeling uncomfortable needing now to make direct references to gold so as to make the cut....CM

TownCrier (01/21/03; 16:03:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 95129)
HEADLINE: Fund manager says gold foreshadows volatility
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030121/economy_commodities_crabel_1.html
NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - A spike in gold prices to near 6-year highs last week suggests commodities will fluctuate widely in the months ahead, a leading commodity futures fund manager said.

"We're at a secular low period in commodities that we're not likely to see for a while. This will mean more volatility," said Toby Crabel, president and CEO of Crabel Capital Management LLC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

"It's like a pressure cooker. We don't know where the steam will come out of the pot, but it's forceful and will be forced out," Crabel told Reuters in an interview.

"We have a pretty good Federal Reserve chairman, but Greenspan is likely to retire soon and I see no viable replacement and that could create a level of uncertainty that could exacerbate whatever problems we have," Crabel added.

He says he is not smart enough to figure out which markets will trend, but he expects that gold will probably move higher.

-----(see url for article)------

He makes a good point about the inevitable changing of the guard at the Fed apt to be more problematic than supportive of the dollar's fate.

The other point to glean from this Reuter's report is simply that it is yet another in a growing string of media reports that incrementally act to turn the tide in public sentiment. As it now is, gold investment in America is still a minority affair, a good time to stake your own generous claim under favorable terms.

R.

Black Blade (01/21/03; 16:02:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 95128)
Gold & Silver Review of 1/21/03
http://news.goldseek.com/Altavest/1043183186.php

Snippit:

From the outset it appeared as if gold bulls were going to get the short end of the stick this session as prices slumped by over $3. However, bulls fought gallantly late in the session and prices surged out of the red and into the black. What was responsible for the last minute bullish heroics? The US dollar index dropped again today and is still hovering around three-year lows and looks poised to dip further. The stock market is floundering and sold off further late in the session. Energy markets were lower during most of today's session but surged late to end above water. We're still near highs not seen since 1997 and the trend remains up. One thing is certain; Iraq remains in the limelight, tensions continue to escalate, and markets are reacting. This environment is ripe for gold to rally, and as we've seen it has done so by about $90 this year. It's highly improbable the geopolitical fuel that is feeding the bullish gold cause will burn off anytime soon, and that should be enough to keep prices buoyant. The multitude of bullish variables supporting gold prices are not likely to make a one-eighty anytime soon, so expect gold to trudge higher. An article "Gold gain is imminent, forecaster says" by Thom Calandra of marketwatch.com references someone who feels we'll approach $1,000 an ounce within a year or two. "Cut to the chase: Turk (James Turk, Editor of Freemarket Gold & Money Report) sees gold, currently at $355 an ounce, rising to $366 by the end of January, which is just 10 days away. The price of the metal will reach $934 an ounce by February 2004, he says."

Black Blade: I am not a TA type by any stretch of the imagination (I am more a proponent of Fundamental Anaylsis), but I have to admit there are some wildly bullish scenarios out there no matter what your stripe. James Turk's "Fear Index" as described by Thom Calandra's piece on MarketWatch today was quite interesting and it does fit with what we see from a FA perspective. I have quoted Erik Gebharb (author of the above article) on occasion in my Market Reports and he too has taken notice of Turk's analysis. Actually I would like to "talk shop" with both if I had time as that would be some interesting discussion. The similarities between the 1970's "fear" and stagflationary events appear to be unfolding before our eyes once again. Now who was it that said "those who do not remember the past and doomed to repeat it"? (Actually it was George Santayana) Whatever differences there are between the TA and FA crowd exist, it is undeniable that we are on the same page now. Life is really about to – please excuse me for saying this – get "interesting".



Cavan Man (01/21/03; 15:58:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 95127)
Mr. Gresham
Cheers. (Gold, AU, 24K et al)

CoBra(too) (01/21/03; 15:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 95126)
@ - Sounds like a convincing explanation?
TC - This is from Richard 640 quoting from Capital Stool:

"Note how Al Green dropped a 16 ton load of Repos into KenoLand today. Where did it go? Probably to the banks, who are having to prop up some more failing hedge funds. HedgeHog statements are landing in the mailboxes as we speak. And unlike the mutual fund hopers, HedgeHog investors generally have to fly blind until the quarter end or year end statement print.

Will we see a massive run out of these funds? The very source of all the short squeezing?

All I can say is that the U.S. Peso promptly collapsed and gold ran to even higher highs when Al decided to drop his load. Yet the gold stocks barely moved. A massive move in either the gold shares or the gold contract is imminent".


TownCrier (01/21/03; 15:47:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 95125)
$16 billion -- atypically big open market intervention by the Fed. What gives?
We haven't really seen numbers this high in a single operation since the fallout days from 9/11 2001.

With the market in fed funds cooperating with the FOMC policy directive (trading this morning at 1.25%), the Fed's NY trading desk nevertheless saw fit to add $16 billion in overnight reserves to the nation's banking system.

I am curious to see how this runs off tomorrow. It may have been necessarily weighted for last-minute reserve maintenance purposes, in which case it will likely be followed by a smaller but longer term operation.

Making money is that easy. All the more reason for gold diversification.

R.

Mr Gresham (01/21/03; 15:17:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 95124)
amen
It may not be the home stretch, or the beginning of the end, but, as Churchill said, "the end of the beginning." If you haven't got a plan, and your time spent here part of implementing (including thinking about) that plan, then drop back, zip it, and think about what your plan is.

Lunch with old best friend, discussing the financial hurdles ahead (aged parents, running out of money, "woe is me" etc etc) and my opening -- a very slim one -- came up, to inject my "solution", so I hum the first notes of our old Bond favorite, "Goldfinger". He smiles, condescendingly, and tosses back, "yes, and gold has been a HORRIBLE investment for the last 20 years."

And that's all there is to it, isn't there? So, no more can be said, to even one as intelligent as my friend. Story finished.

Be glad you're among those here who, very possibly, are going to "outperform" all those way more smart people out there, starting out with way more money than we. Be glad to be in this small band of skeptics' skeptics, who, though we may have been financial "stopped clocks" these past 20 years, are just about to have our chimes ring, many, many times.

admin (01/21/03; 15:04:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 95123)
Final Warning
We warned recently about all the off-topic posting, i.e. political discussion that never makes it back to the subject of gold. So we'll make this the final warning before we start pulling codes. Thank you for your co-operation. The management.

P.S. Don't underestimate our determination to keep this Forum a service to our clientele. We've cleaned house before and we have no compunctions about doing it again.


Gimli_ (01/21/03; 14:36:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 95122)
Test to see who reads "The Afternoon Gold Report..." by Jon Warner
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Who else saw double after reading the first section? :-))

Cavan Man (01/21/03; 14:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 95121)
Done deal?
01/21 16:16
U.S. Sends Carriers, Division to Gulf; Boosts Troops (Update1)
By Tony Capaccio


Washington, Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. is sending two aircraft carriers and 16,000 troops equipped with the most advanced electronic gear to the Persian Gulf region, boosting U.S. forces to about 185,000, Pentagon officials said.



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (01/21/03; 14:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 95120)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough the first time, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. Crude, yes, but there it is. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.