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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/21/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Carl H (08/21/02; 23:53:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 83485) @Black Blade: SPR Numbers Black Blade: Do you believe the Strategic Petrol. Res. numbers? Cometose (08/21/02; 23:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 83484) POST 83480/ JPMORGAN CHASE RATINGS MAY BE CUT Synopsis:JPMORGAN CHASE ..........." hard to quantify " misetich (08/21/02; 22:40:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 83483) U.S. Auto Sales Look Strong-But a number of observers are beginning to question how long new vehicle sales, a linchpin that accounts for roughly 10 percent of the U.S. economy, can thrive amid America's tepid economic recovery. A sudden drop in the automotive industry's strength could signal that the wheels of the economy have stopped moving. http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20020821_523.html Snip:DETROIT (Reuters) - Automakers and auto industry experts see August shaping up as another hot month for U.S. vehicle sales, thanks to interest-free loans and other hefty rebates.But a number of observers are beginning to question how long new vehicle sales, a linchpin that accounts for roughly 10 percent of the U.S. economy, can thrive amid America's tepid economic recovery. A sudden drop in the automotive industry's strength could signal that the wheels of the economy have stopped moving.Analysts expect auto sales in August to run roughly 7 percent to 9 percent higher than last year, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 17.6 million vehicles -- off from July's blockbuster pace of 18.1 million, but well ahead of the 16.4 million rate in August 2001.The decline from July's pace would come as Detroit's Big Three automakers start to run low on the 2002 model year vehicles carrying the zero-percent loans and large rebates. Earlier this month, all three began offering far less generous rebates on the 2003 models just beginning to hit dealerships............Much of that has been thanks to incentives that averaged almost $2,900 on vehicles from Detroit's Big Three in July. But a number of other economic factors, including interest rates at 40-year lows, growing personal incomes and rising home values, may have also help prop up sales.............."AUTOS, CRUISE MISSILES AND HOUSES""With the exception of autos, cruise missiles and houses ... it seems to me the economy is kind of stalling out," said Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust securities."Corporations are still under tremendous pressure to improve their profits, the only way they're seeing to do it is through cutting costs, and the biggest part of their costs are people," he said. "I don't expect to see much hiring and maybe more firings."...........And the last income report from the U.S. Commerce Department found Americans boosted their savings rate in June to 4.2 percent of their income from 3 percent a year earlier, suggesting their bias against spending was strong."People are trying to save more after they finally realize they're poorer, their wealth has taken some substantial hits in past 2.5 years," Kasriel said. "They probably feel the need now to increase their net worth the old-fashioned way, by saving more." ************MisetichThe auto, housing, government spending is red hot - yet the economy is not going anywhere - how long can this go on? Budget deficit is expected in excess of $200 billion and with "normalization" including off-budget items and interest costs the deficit is near $500 billionConsumer debt, both housing and auto is staggering - and will only get worse if they continue on borrowingThey hope for a transitional leap from these industries to others however in most post-recessions it was the housing industry to spring out from the depths of the abyss -Got gold?Got gold? Gold Hill (08/21/02; 22:39:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 83482) Black Blade I've been lurking for quite a while, remember you mentioning Silverado and their clean coal process. I see that Silverado has applied for a $10 mil grant from DOE to help fund their progress. Any comments? BTW (Disclaimer), I did buy Silverado and it has been very good to me. Off to see the Prez tomorrow, southern Oregon is going to get some press!! misetich (08/21/02; 22:29:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 83481) Oil Price Hike Won't Spark Inflation: Fed http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20020821_482.html Snip:— EMERYVILLE, Calif. (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Parry said on Wednesday he was not worried the recent spike in oil prices above $30 a barrel would stoke now dormant inflation.............Parry, who in an earlier speech said that the current level of interest rates is appropriate and quite stimulative, told reporters later he was comfortable with growth in the second half of the year of 3 percent or slightly under."If it didn't grow at a 3 percent rate, I'd be disappointed," he said, adding that such a growth rate should help improve the labor market.***********MisetichOK we won't have "inflation" as defined by the Feds - I guess they mean CPI, etc but not the increase in money supplyDoubted if the economic growth will not be affected by an increase in energy costs with firms unable to pass on the increased costs - Jawboning is the only thing Feds got left - no ammo left- game overGot gold? misetich (08/21/02; 22:21:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 83480) J.P. Morgan Chase Ratings May Be Cut http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20020821_524.html Snip:Aug. 21 — By Jonathan StempelNEW YORK (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday threatened to cut J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s <JPM.N> long-term ratings, expressing concern about the Wall Street bank's profits and the degree to which Enron Corp.'s<ENRNQ.PK> bankruptcy may hurt J.P. Morgan's reputationThe warning affects $42.4 billion of debt at the No. 2 U.S. bank holding company, formed in December 2000 from the merger of Chase Manhattan and J.P. Morgan, and follows a similar action last Thursday by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.Moody's said it may cut J.P. Morgan Chase's "Aa3" senior unsecured debt, its fourth highest grade. It affirmed J.P. Morgan's "Prime-1" short-term ratings. Downgrades often boost borrowing costs."The review is much more directly tied to financial performance and fundamental issues," said Peter Nerby, a Moody's senior vice president, in an interview. "The company has suffered from a profitability point of view over the last few quarters since the nerger, and that may continue."Nerby added that "some of the reputational hits that J.P. Morgan has suffered could affect fundamental financial performance going forward, although that's very, very hard to quantify."...............Moody's said J.P. Morgan's strategy to combine commercial and investment banking "has met mixed success," and that its Enron ties might subject it to more regulatory scrutiny and expensive litigation.*********MisetichJP Morgan - ANOTHER warning - preparing the markets for the inevitable -Got gold? Waverider (08/21/02; 21:40:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 83479) DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html For anyone who otherwise may have missed it...the best on the web... DOWNUNDER (08/21/02; 20:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 83478) US DOLLAR HEGEMONY HAS GOT TO GO - - http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html Hegemony -(Dictionary defination)-"Leadership or predominantinfluence exercised by ONE state over others.This article dated April 11th 2002 cuts right to the chase & gives an excellent overview, with clarity, as to why American domination of the whole world economy must cease. It's not a long read but it covers the history -and more importantly spells out reasons for the discerning reader as to why the USA Govt is loathed by so many nations. SNIP- -World trade is now a game in which the US produces dollars and the rest of the world produces things that dollars can buy. The world's interlinked economies no longer trade to capture a comparative advantage; they compete in exports to capture needed dollars to service dollar-denominated foreign debts and to accumulate dollar reserves to sustain the exchange value of their domestic currencies. To prevent speculative and manipulative attacks on their currencies, the world's central banks must acquire and hold dollar reserves in corresponding amounts to their currencies in circulation. The higher the market pressure to devalue a particular currency, the more dollar reserves its central bank must hold. This creates a built-in support for a strong dollar that in turn forces the world's central banks to acquire and hold more dollar reserves, making it stronger. This phenomenon is known as dollar hegemony, which is created by the geopolitically constructed peculiarity that critical commodities, most notably oil, are denominated in dollars. Everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil. The recycling of petro-dollars is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973. Blackjack (08/21/02; 20:03:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 83477) US Budget Deficit on track to worst in 6 years http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1028185910197&p=1012571727204 The federal budget deficit is on track to be the worst in at least six years, according to the latest official figures showing an ongoing erosion of tax revenue and ever-higher public spending in July.The US Treasury reported on Tuesday that tax revenue fell short of government spending for the second time in three months, leading to a deficit of $29.2bn in July - in-line with expectations.It leaves this year's deficit on-track to be the largest since the mid-1990's. From January to July, it amounts to a cumulative $110bn - the highest since the $119.7bn deficit of the January-to-July period of 1993.For the first ten months of the fiscal year which ends in September, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $147bn compared to a $172bn surplus over the same period last year.Aggravated by the economic slump, tax cuts, anti-terrorism and medical-care-related spending, the deficit threatens to complicate the Bush Administration's consideration of a new economic stimulus plan. A Canadian (08/21/02; 19:40:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 83476) J.P. MORGAN TAKES ANOTHER SLAP This time from Moody's.....this will eventually become the weakest link...goodbye! Cavan Man (8/21/02; 16:27:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 83475) RPowell Only massive buying or conversely, massive selling will set AU free. I hope for the former Carl H (8/21/02; 16:09:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 83474) @Black Blade: Debt You should have also pointed out that Personal debt loads are very high and the US Government debt just keeps growing and growing and growing...I recall reading somehwere in the past year that historically, far more soverign debt has been repudiated or inflated away than has ever been paid back. Kinda makes you wonder about "risk free investments" like US treasuries.Got Gold? Black Blade (8/21/02; 15:19:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 83473) Corporate debt saps nation http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36%257E33%257E801767,00.html?search=filter Credit stress hits Depression level Snippit: Sunday, August 18, 2002 - U.S. corporate debt nearly doubled in the past five years - to $3.9 trillion by the month of May. The burden, already buckling many companies under the load, threatens to send the nation into a prolonged recession. "We're looking at an economic heart attack in front of us," said John Riley, president of Cornerstone Investment Services, a money management firm in Providence, R.I. "We're faced with owning up to the excesses of the late 1990s."Black Blade: Corporate debt is at all time record highs and it is unlikely to ever be paid. Looks like the banks have a problem. In a word –"Grim". R Powell (8/21/02; 13:49:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 83472) That strange cyberworld of POG changes Kitco has added a new feature to their daily gold and silver charts. The bottom of each chart gives an indicator showing when the different exchanges are open. To the usual Sydney, Hong Kong, London and Comex markets, the New York access market has been added. This is an electronic (Globex) market, thinly traded, where prices may vary drastically. If the day comes when a large, market moving amount of money is invested in silver or gold, this may be the place for driving the POG or POS upward. It is also a dangerous place where prices are vulnerable to attack. I believe Lips' "Gold Wars" explains that one large bank, through massive buying, once started a gold rush. This market access did not exist at that time. Perhaps we'll see another large institution break from the ranks one fine day. I'm ready! Rich Cavan Man (8/21/02; 12:03:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 83471) Looks like war (ongoing tug-o-war in admin) washingtonpost.com Bush: Iraq Change in World Interest By Jennifer LovenAssociated Press WriterWednesday, August 21, 2002; 12:56 PM CRAWFORD, Texas –– President Bush promised Wednesday to consult allies before any military action against Iraq and asserted that an end to Saddam Hussein's regime "is in the interest of the world.""How we achieve that is a matter of consultation and deliberation," Bush told reporters.Even so, Bush said the subject of a possible military strike on Iraq did not come up at a meeting on his ranch with his top military advisers. Instead, he said, long-range Pentagon issues were discussed. © 2002 The Associated Press Galerider (8/21/02; 10:46:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 83470) FED SPEAKS Greetings, Told everyone when I joined, the markets are frustrating. That the regional FEDS would hold the party line and talk of tame inflation, reasonable economic growth, yada, yada, yada......what puppets! Sierra Madre (8/21/02; 10:26:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 83469) Welteke of the Bundesbank keeps wanting to sell CB gold... There he goes again! Welteke wants to sell gold, to help "disaster victims". Yes, of course, we understand:Weltie old boy, you vant to sell gold to get ze Cherman banks off ze hook, zey sold ze golt und now zey need it beck. Jah? Zeez are ze WICTIMS, (of their own foolishness and perversity).Sierra Mutter Socrates964 (8/21/02; 09:04:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83468) Enron Let's hope they go after JPM while they're at it. If the $20 close on 7/24 was the trigger for a meltdown and a) this knowledge was not in the public domain, b) the top people knew that intervention was forthcoming to lift the stock above the fatal level, then what is the status of these purchases? No marks for guessing. TownCrier (8/21/02; 08:48:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 83467) HEADLINE: IMF cuts Kyrgyz GDP outlook on gold mine accident http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/08/21/rtr701213.html BISHKEK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan's economy will grow by just 1.5 percent this year against an original forecast of 4.5 percent following an accident at the country's biggest firm, a gold mine ... Kumtor, a gold venture with Canada's Cameco Corp ... had to halt its work due to a gigantic landslide at its mine in the Tien Shan mountains."We have revised the real GDP forecast for this year because of the impact of the landslide in the Kumtor mine," Tapio Saavalainen, head of a visiting IMF mission.Official data shows GDP shrank by 4.9 percent in the first half of this year, compared with the same period of 2001.Kumtor accounts for some 40 percent of Kyrgyzstan's industrial output, and its gold comprises around half of all exports...----------(click URL for full text)---------As should be obvious from this report, gold can provide benefits reaching beyond the individual. Here is a case where an entire nation's economic health hinges on the export of newly mined gold.It should also be obvious that the landslides did nothing to harm the value of anybody's investments in the gold that had been previously mined and shipped out, but investments in the mining company (Cameco) are down nearly 25% since the July 8th mine mishap -- a pit wall failure (200 meters in height). Take care where you stand, mate.R. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/21/02; 08:11:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 83466) A good treasure never goes out of style http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
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