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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/21/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Mr Gresham
(02/21/02; 23:51:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 70581)
Frontiers of accounting: Japan
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20020221/120496.html
I'm repeating the link Black Blade gave this morning. The article is worth absorbing as it gives a likely sequence in Japan starting with credit agency downgrades locking up its banks' international dealings, before depositors even start lining up outside.
It also gives the upside in Japan's strengths as an international creditor, toward the end of the article, and that keeps you thinking about how this particular ball might carom around the billiard table.
IMO, it's a set-up for a classical fractional reserve crisis. The $10 trillion equivalent in private savings takes a look at the (??check my figure please??) $30 trillion in total debt, sees its servicing deteriorate, and starts feeling like the unwilling player of Musical Chairs at a party. The first $10 trillion in debt that gets canceled out (if not all of it) will be offset with their $10 trillion of savings wiped out.
In other words, their savings may have been real enough the day it left their hands, or paychecks. But from the time it entered "The 'Saving for Retirement' System", it ceased to exist in any positive sense. Others grabbed it, spent it, or loaned it out through enough unreclaimable channels that someone else now possesses its positive value, never to be returned. Any of this sound familiar in these parts?
You just have to grab onto something rock-solid and hold onto it until people figure out who owns and owes what, and where positive value lies once more. Only then may small savers wisely venture out of their tortoise shells.
(I'm sorry if this contravenes all the financial "wisdom" and cleverness we've had shoveled into our heads these past decades, or sounds too lunk-headed simple, but sometimes -- That's Just The Way It Really Is!) Good night, and sleep well.
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 23:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70580)
RE: Carl H - Natural Gas
I am not too sure of the question. However, I will say that as far as new fields - there are few if any new fields being discovered and fewer still that are being exploited. Much of the problem of course is the lack of pipelines and pipeline capacity. It requires an ungodly amount of paperwork (permitting, environmental impact studies, etc.). Take the proposed Alaska NG pipeline for example.
Most if any new NG supply is from the drilling in extensions of existing fields as the infrastructure is already in place. New fields require a lot of start up capital and in the current price environment I wouldn't expect to see a lot of NG companies rushing out to explore and develop new properties. As far as new discoveries in old fields there are two types of situations here. 1) the retrieval of NG from old oil and gas fields that was passed over; and 2) exploratory drilling in old fields (usually in deeper zones and therefore more costly). There are a few niche players that have been successful in purchasing old fields or the rights in order to tackle production in old existing fields. In the current price environment I would be willing to bet that any new supply will come from extensions in existing producing fields.
Some of the previous posts discuss the difficulties in NG production and supply. Hope this helps. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 23:22:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70579)
Continued Swings in Natural Gas Market
http://www.NGSA.org/docs/pressrelease/2002/CERA2_13_02.pdf
Snippit (pdf file):
R. Skip Horvath, President of the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) says among other things:
"The reason for the volatility is simple: we are a commodity market and volatility is inherent in competitive commodities. But the long-term reason for the swings is more fundamental: supply. The fields are old, yielding less and less natural gas. Today we have to produce six trillion cubic feet per year of new natural gas supply just to stay even, much less the amount required to meet growing demand. We can produce the natural gas required to meet market demands, but we must have changes in government policy to plan for the future."
"Our industry cannot move on a dime. Producing natural gas takes time, even years when we are not using existing wells. In order to meet future demand, we must have improved government permitting in gas-prone government lands to ensure the most economic supply; and two, we must be allowed to explore for new fields of natural gas in areas where we currently are restricted. It may sound simple., but these two issues are our industry's biggest challenges."
Black Blade: Even with the furious pace of drilling last year the supply increased by a measley 2%. What has saved us from another energy crisis was warm weather and an economic recession. Thankfully we have an economic recession, because otherwise a repeat of last summer's "Energy Crisis" would have been inevitable.
Carl H
(02/21/02; 23:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 70577)
Black Blade: Questions
Black Blade,
I have been studying the natural gas statistics from the DOE web site.
I am looking at the well drilling data and the reserve data. They break down the wells drilled by Exploratory and Development. The discoveries added to reserves are broken down by Extensions, New Field Discoveries, and New Reservoir Discoveries in Old Fields. Which types of drilling would you expect to add reserves to which categories?
Thanks!
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 22:53:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70576)
Natural Gas-Related Energy Tax Proposals Would Help Prepare for Future Economic Growth, Environmental Benefits
http://www.aga.org/Newsroom/NewsReleases/4507.html
Snippit:
Published: 2/14/2002
Washington, D.C. - The U.S. Senate is poised to begin debating a national energy policy bill that has been made even more comprehensive through the addition of energy tax incentives approved yesterday by the Senate Finance Committee, according to the American Gas Association (AGA).
"The Senate Finance Committee has taken a long-term view of energy policy and has recognized that the increased use of natural gas will benefit our country's economy, national security and environmental quality," said David N. Parker, AGA president and CEO.
For example, Parker said, the committee took steps to help local natural gas utilities expand their systems to prepare for future increases in natural gas use by allowing them to accelerate the depreciation schedule for new distribution pipelines.
"Natural gas use is expected to increase by 50 percent during the next 20 years because it is a clean, highly efficient fuel found in abundance here in North America. But the pipes used by local utility companies to deliver natural gas must be expanded. Accelerated depreciation will make it easier for gas utilities to get the capital they will need to add roughly 255,000 miles of pipe during the next two decades," he said.
Allowing gas utilities to reduce the tax depreciation schedule for investments will not change the companies' total cash flows or reduce the total amount of taxes they pay, he noted.
Other energy tax incentives of interest to natural gas utilities that will be included in the Bingaman-Daschle energy bill (S. 1766) would:
Promote increased supplies of natural gas, which will help keep customers' bills down. For example, a new credit of .50 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of natural gas is designed to encourage producers to get more natural gas from marginal well; it would apply only if the production price of natural gas remains below $2.00 per Mcf.
Encourage customers to use energy more efficiently, such as generating their own reliable supply of electricity, using natural gas fuel cells or combined heat and power systems.
Improve air quality in urban and suburban areas through tax credits designed to boost the use of vehicles fueled with natural gas and other clean fuels. (Credits would be available for all sizes of vehicles.
Natural gas as a vehicle fuel helps reduce reliance on foreign oil: one natural gas transit bus displaces about 10,000 gallons of diesel fuel each year.)
The American Gas Association represents 187 local energy utility companies that deliver natural gas to more than 52 million customers throughout the United States. Natural gas meets one-fourth of the United States' energy needs and is the nation's fastest growing major energy source.
Black Blade: This would perhaps help to prevent some problems by encouraging more energy independence and encourage more production in face of low prices and hopefully head off the worse case scenario should an "energy Crisis" resurface. Still it is too little - too late.
ax
(02/21/02; 22:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 70575)
WALL STREET JOURNAL FRONT PAGE FRIDAY :J.P MORGAN,ENRON
Simon Hobbs on CNBC Europe reported a short time ago that
tomorrow morning's Wall Street Journal will feature a story
on its front page regarding: J.P Morgan, Enron and an
off shore banking facility.
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 22:36:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 70574)
Industrial sector holds key to boosting natural gas demand
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=136461
By the OGJ Online Staff
HOUSTON, Feb. 21 -- The industrial sector may hold the key to the floodgates on natural gas demand in the US, which has ample gas supplies, according to Energy Security Analysis Inc.
Industrial demand will likely revive in the second quarter after falling off during mid-2000 when the economy began to weaken, Wakefield, Mass.-based ESAI said. ESAI added it "expects that chemical and fertilizer producers, for whom natural gas is a raw material accounting for 75-90% of the cost of production, may intensify a trend begun last October and November of unshuttering production facilities to take advantage of low natural gas prices."
ESAI Senior Analyst Mary Menino said, "With current gas prices hovering around $2/MMbtu, US gas supplies should be competitive with foreign gas sources supplying overseas chemical and fertilizer capacity.
"This should induce owners of US capacity to reopen their plants," she said. "If the economy revives by spring, we would expect general industrial gas demand to begin to expand."
Black Blade: As I said, increased demand will lead to higher prices that go straight to the corporate (and consumer) bottom line. It is a "catch-22". The "Energy Crisis" continues to lurk beneath the radar.
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 22:27:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70573)
Gas storage withdrawals 'much higher' than 5-year average
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=136462
Gas storage withdrawals 'much higher' than 5-year average
By the OGJ Online Staff
HOUSTON, Feb. 21 -- Cold weather in much of the US in early February has ended a series of weeks of relatively small gas withdrawals from storage, said C.H. Guernsey & Co., Oklahoma City. According to the firm's models, cold weather during the first full week of February produced withdrawals that were "much higher" than the 5-year average.
"The Guernsey models estimated a net withdrawal of gas in storage of 133-145 bcf [for the week of Feb. 4], with 89 bcf coming from Eastern storage alone. The net withdrawal estimated by the American Gas Association was 95 bcf for the same period last year," Guernsey said.
The Guernsey models -- which estimate gas use and price movements pegged to the weather in 15 cities -- showed temperatures 56% lower than the previous week in significant northern cities, said Donald Murry, Guernsey vice-president. However, despite the recent strong drawdown, gas in storage remains close to 45% above the 5-year average, Murry added. "The high gas-in-storage levels are still the major market influence, holding down current and even forward prices for summer gas," he said.
Black Blade: Withdrawals have been running higher than average. If the economy recovers or cold weather continues then storage will draw down significantly. If this summer is warmer than usual we could see increased demand as electricity use soars. The end result is higher energy costs as exploration and development activity is nearly stopped and this coincides with rapid decline rates for NG fields.
ax
(02/21/02; 20:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 70572)
Dollar/ Gold Index
Black Blade: Happy to see you using the reverse index of
the value of the USD in terms of ounces of gold. Another way of making a dollar/gold index is to price the USD in milligrams of gold. At a gold price of US$ 3ll.03 / ounce the dollar/gold index stands at exactly 100 ( 100 mg of gold )
For example, currently, spot gold appears to be around
$ 293.85/ oz in Sydney. So the Dollar/Gold Index would
be 31103/ 293.85 = 105.85 ( 105.85 mg of gold ).
It would be best to stop pricing everything in
terms of currency and just price it in terms of in milligrams of gold, starting of course with the USD.
Ax ( see a few graph points below from a previous
post)
ax (06/02/01; 19:08:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 55216)
THE RIGHT WAY TO PRESERVE THE US DOLLAR
shows the MILLIGRAM WEIGHT of GOLD which equals ONE USD at a given
price of gold.
PRICE OF GOLD NEW DOLLAR INDEX (WEIGHT OF GOLD IN MG)
to equal ONE USD)
$ 207.35 150
$ 266.70 (6-01-00 ny close) 116.62
$ 300.00 102.68
$ 311.03 100
$ 414.71 75
$ 622.06 50
$1,244.12 25
For any gold price the equivalent value of one USD in milligrams of gold
can be interpolated from the above table or using the following formula:
NEW DOLLAR INDEX = 31103/ PRICE OF GOLD IN USD
AX
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 20:42:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 70571)
Boeing Announces 1,000 Jobs Cuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020221/boeing_jobs_2.html
Snippit:
Boeing Announces 1,000 Jobs Cuts in LA Satellite Division
Black Blade: And so it goes - the "Bone Pile" grows.
USAGOLD
(02/21/02; 20:20:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70570)
Gandalf, CB and ALL. . . .
I want to thank all who decided to participate in the Race for the Angel. This has to be the highest participation contest yet. I want to thank Gandalf, our wizardrous friend, for acting as moderator. Much of the credit for the high participation goes to you. Good luck to all tomorrow -- though the fundamentals and the technicals do not seem to support Invisible Hand's $8752.00 prognostication at the moment. But who knows what the Rising Sun might bring. . . . . .
CB. . .Congrats to Steff for a great victory. Bode gave it his best but Steph put two good runs together and gets the gold. I'm sure they'll do some skiing together on both sides of the Atlantic in the months to come. As I watched Steff battle the Utah snow and pull his victory out of it, I was thinking about your comment on the different types of snow you experienced in the Rockies and the Alps. I remembered after we got off the phone that somebody told me one time that the Plains Indians had something like 15 different words for the one phenomena we call "snow". Thought that might interest you . . . . . . .
Looks like gold is blasting through some gates of its own this evening. . . . . .
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 19:55:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 70569)
RE: Clint H
I didn't think of that. However, the two strongest major currencies in the World right now are the US Dollar and Gold. Now Gold is strengthening against the US Dollar. It has to really bum out those who support the "strong dollar" policy. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 19:51:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 70568)
THE NEW DEPRESSION - Part 2
US BANKING CRISIS
It is almost a daily event that we here of one corporate downgrade or debt downgrade. Recently we heard that Providian and Fleet Financial are experiencing severe losses on bad loans and credit card debt. In the year 2000 at First Union the bad debt load rose over 53%, B of A over 65%, Wachovia over 118%, and Bank One over 159%. Last year's numbers are expected to be much - much worse. This year has started off badly as well.
It gets much worse as corporate debt and bankruptcies leave many banks reeling under humongous losses. Remember how the Bank of America reeled under the prospect of billions of dollars in losses from the bankruptcy of California utility PG&E? It is the old saying - "owe the bank a little and you have a problem - owe the bank a lot and the bank has a problem". A good example is the LTV Corporation. JP Morgan Chase loaned this company over $600 Million. LTV Corporation filed for bankruptcy and then asked JPMC for another loan for $225 Million. Guess what? They got the loan. Virtually every US Bank has a similar tale to tell. And we haven't even discussed the banks DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE!
In 1998, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) went tits up when they were caught on the wrong side of derivative positions when the Russians defaulted on bonds, Asian Contagion swept throughout the Far East, and currencies in Japan, Russia, and Europe cratered. LTCM went under and Alan Greenspan had to engineer a bailout due to the potential of a Global Economic Crisis. Not much has changed, as today it is the major banks that are in trouble.
Today, the US General Accounting Office (GAO) reveals that US banks have over $40.5 Trillion in derivative exposure! That's TRILLION WITH A MONSTROUS CAPITAL "T"! That is nearly $142,000 for every man, woman, and child in the US. There are over 400 commercial banks in the US with tremendous derivatives exposure. A few events similar to 1998 could hurl the Global Economy" into a Depression that would make the last Great Depression rather insignificant. It wouldn't take much. Even "all the kings horses and all the kings men (Alan Greenspan and his counterparts) could put Humpty Dumpty (the Global Economy) together again. It would be irreparable. The GAO calls this "Systemic Risk" - NO KIDDING! I call it Global Financial Meltdown.
JAPANESE MELTDOWN
Recently we have heard and seen the problems with the Japanese economy. The Yen is a pathetic scrap of paper and banks are insolvent. This is something I had discussed before it was fashionable. Now there are too many warts to be ignored. Japanese banks are in serious trouble as they have refused to clear the books of bad debts and nonperforming loans. It won't be long until the situation becomes untenable. That means all that cash to the tune of $450 billion invested in US equities, US real estate, and US bonds are going home. When that happens - the US economy will suffer.
Japanese banks are insolvent to well in excess of $1 Trillion of bad debt and even amid cries for the BOJ to bail out the banks, the government is really in no position to provide any meaningful help. There is the smell of fear in Japan. Housewives have been reported purchasing kilo bars of Gold to protect their savings. Why? Because these same banks know that they will have to abscond with the life savings of many Japanese eventually. Preparations are under way now. The first step is to shake loose of any obligation of insuring savings. First it is protection is reduced to about $75,000 in savings accounts. Next year more changes are mandated by cutting additional insurance in other types of savings in other accounts. I don't know all the details yet. That shoe will drop over the next several days. As the deadline approaches on April 1st, we shall see more frightened Japanese scurry about looking for safe harbor - stocks maybe? Nonperforming bonds? - no, even the Japanese banks won't invest in those. Maybe - just maybe Gold?
MARKET VALUATIONS
We hear a lot from these dim bulb economists these days that say, "it's different this time". It is only different in the size of the coming disaster. The stock market indices are grossly over valued and in fact many companies have no earnings. What earnings many have are the "Pro Forma" type earnings that are meaningless. What counts is NET EARNINGS. How much the company actually made - not some sugarcoated fantasy dreamed up by some pie-in-the-sky economist (who was probably trained at Arthur Andersen).
Based on the PE ratios of the market indices and comparing these earnings to the historical averages, we can make some rough conclusions. First the commonly cited PE ratio of the S&P 500 is about 26 to 29. That is a farce! The S&P PE ratio is calculated based on "operating earnings". Using the most recent net earnings the for the PE ratio of about 62 and applying that to the historical average (of 14) we see that the true value of the S&P index should be about 248! The NASDAQ even after falling from well over 5500 to a more recent 1716 should be valued roughly about 750, and the DOW (an index of only 30 issues and rather limited in scope) should be valued at about 5285. The numbers have deteriorated greatly not because of rising share prices, but because of falling earnings. Ouch! Even so, who knows what the true earnings are as accounting scandal after accounting scandal comes to light on a daily basis.
REAL ESTATE BUBBLE
Hell, I haven't even talked about the coming real estate bust when the bubble pops. Many investors have been looking for safe haven as the US Economy tanks. One perceived safe haven is Real Estate. A lot of people are in for a shock. What happens when people can't pay their mortgage? Repossession? Perhaps a new "Dust Bowl" scenario with US families hitting the road?
Corporate real estate is already hitting the skids. Silicon Valley and San Francisco were the sky-high rent districts (as well as Manhattan). Prices have been falling steadily over the last 6 months or so. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) will also get hit as income slows. REITS payout funds from operations typically nearly 90% pass through to investors. There will be no safe haven investment here. As goes real estate - so goes construction. Of course here too the banks will take it on the chin. When the banks go under - what is left to take?
WHAT TO DO?
There isn't much anyone can do at this point except look out for number one. That is - get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program started. Prepare as you would for a long period of unemployment or a natural disaster where help isn't expected for a long time.
Is economic recovery "around the corner" as these dim bulb economists on CNBC say? I won't hold my breath as these idiots missed the start of the economy to begin with. I sure hope that they are right, however, the signs and the data suggests a lot of misery for a lot of people. In a word - "GRIM"
- Black Blade
Clint H
(02/21/02; 19:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 70567)
Black Blade msg#: 70559)
US Dollar in Devaluation!
<<The US Dollar is devaluing against Gold. The dollar now stands at a mere 0.0034013 oz.of Gold and falling. The case is even more extreme for other World currencies. And the YEN and Euro? Pathetic.>>
Is this what ANOTHER meant when he said gold and the dollar would rise together?
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 19:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 70566)
THE NEW DEPRESSION - Part 1
THE NEW DEPRESSION
I watched a segment on CNBC as three economists (Bill Dudley US Chief Economist, Ken Schoenholtz, and Steve Slifer) said that the US Recession is over. Now that's interesting. Didn't these professional economists miss the start of the US Recession? It would appear that though they could not even see the Recession for more than a year after it had started that now they are so quick to declare the Recession over.
I don't buy it. I hope that it is true, however, we are not talking about the most intelligent or honest people here.
A NEW DEPRESSION?
First we have only to look at the most basic facts and we can see that the US economy is in real trouble. When stocks crashed in 1929, the major US corporations were flush with cash and most were debt free. Remember that was in 1929 - the beginning of the Great Depression! Today US corporations are in debt to the tune of $4.7 Trillion. That is not all that far from equaling the US National Debt! According to the US Federal Reserve, this debt is rising at a pace three times faster than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - that is greater than the value of all the goods and services produced by the entire US economy! Recession is the least of our problems.
I have just mentioned the 1929 stock crash that signaled the start of the Great Depression. So far this Recession has racked up losses that make the entire Great Depression look like a walk in the park. This crash (the implosion of the Tech, dot.com, and general stock speculative manias) has sucked out over $5 Trillion from investor's pockets - many of them retirees who can least afford these gigantic losses. That's $5 Trillion gone! - Yep, GONE TO MONEY HEAVEN! Yeah I know that president Dubya and congress has promised the American public tax cuts totaling $1.7 Trillion over the next ten years, but let's face it - that is pitiful. It is woefully inadequate to stimulate the US economy.
Heck, there are about 47 million US Baby-Boomers who will retire over the next five years. After such a big hit to their investment portfolios what kind of retirement will these poor folks have to look forward to? They are tapped out. They are not likely to be buying a lot of goods and services that is expected to light a fire under a new US economic recovery. They are mostly scared sh**less! They know that they can't survive on Social Security alone. (I'm not even going to get into that right now - it would fill volumes).
And we haven't even considered what impact the implosion of the Japanese and South American economies will have. Today data was released that shows a drop of 8% in the US trade deficit. Yeah, that's nice. So US citizens aren't buying as many foreign products. Guess what? Foreigners aren't buying our goods either. They simply can't afford to as their currencies quickly depreciate against a strong US dollar.
FED RATE CUTS AND SPECULATIVE MANIAS
I have discussed this before, but did you realize that not only in the Great Depression, but also in the Recessions of 1945, 1953, 1970, 1973-1975, and 1990 the Fed cut interest rates in order to head off a Recession? It didn't work then - it won't work now. The Fed cut rates 8 times before the Great Depression, 7 times before the 1973-1975 Recession, and a record 11 times during what could very well turn out to be the New Great Depression. These wild crippling Recessions/Depressions have been preceded by speculative manias as well. In the 1920' there was the Radio and Auto mania investment craze, then in the 1960's it was the "tronics" craze (where any company with the suffix -tronics was a "guaranteed winner - similar to the dot.com craze), it the 1970's it was the "nifty fifty" - the fifty stocks that would always be with us and score huge gains (such as Polaroid). More recently it was the Tech, Telecom, and dot.com manias. Nothing really changes except the names and the dates.
ENERGY CRISES
Of course every postwar Recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. When the cost of energy rises, this cost goes straight to the corporate "bottom line". The most recent "Energy Crisis" precipitated the Recession that we are in today by wringing out the excesses of the Tech, Telecom, and dot.com speculative manias. In 1973 the Global Economy reeled under the Arab Oil Embargo as Middle Eastern OPEC members retaliated against western support of Israel. There were long lines at gas stations and rationing ensured. Of course the POG jumped higher. Later the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and hostage crisis as well as the Russian invasion of Afghanistan triggered another Oil Crisis, and most here know what happened to the POG as inflation soared, the effects of the energy crisis and the prospect of a spreading war in the Middle East became a concern.
Now OPEC is determined to maintain a higher trading range for oil. Russia will ultimately have to comply because their costs of production are much higher than the Middle Eastern OPEC members. If Russia floods the market, then the POO will drop crating a huge loss of revenue. It is oil that feeds the Russian economy and without it the fragile Russian is toast. OPEC has held the threat of overproduction over the Russians head and in effect could cripple the Russian economy while bring down the POO. I believe that all parties will compromise and maintain a higher price band as it is in their best interests.
Any economic recovery will mean increased demand for energy. Guess what? Exploration and production has fallen off. It takes time to gear up for production and there are not that many drill rigs anymore. Again, increased demand means higher energy prices and that means costs that go straight to the "bottom line". This time energy costs will constrain any economic recovery unless some government inspired and funded push for energy takes place. It has been mentioned that energy is a "security issue" and it is also a very important economic issue as well.
CoBra(too)
(02/21/02; 18:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 70565)
Great Post - Nickel62 - Thanks
I was probably trying to think along a similar thread in my last post - though youv'e nailed it.
Don't ever trust the bloody foreigners, like me ... to come right to the point - even if I think to think in your lingo, I still have up and down days - and that's one of 'em.
Though, as seignorage not only allows to hide "price inflation" over time - by supressing its main barometer, gold - it also contains price hikes in any fundamental commodity on the convienient futures market. The problem is, amongst others, it deprives the producers of these fundamental commodities of their fair price; And it also traps the domestic manufacturing industry into outsourcing their workforce.
For a while a semblance of the balance may be upheld by the fiction of technological advances, dubbed enhanced productivity. A myth, again, which is now starting to to gain popular disbelief.
As an aside, in european malls there is one growing sector -next to bio-produce, which is called "Fair Trade" - where the consumer is paying voluntarily a higher market price. It's not charity, it's in order to keep your producer ... eh, producing.
OK, eventually seignorage and futures (derivative) paper price "fixing" will "price" all producers out of the market. The US $ fix to the Argentino Peso did just that - and from here on the "21" will only serve the last meager long horns as NY T-Bone, or eventually a medium rare CPMC, with mashed Enron's on the side, topped by gravy of Citi.
Help yourself - cb2
nickel62
(02/21/02; 17:38:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 70564)
Kluge,
The thrust of the arguement on the value of gold is that it's value has and can be manipulated by those who hold very large stocks to push up the price of paper money by forcing the spot market price of gold down. If it takes only $393 pieces of green paper printed with dead president's pictures to buy one once then the rest of the world must accept the US dollars for the output of their goods and services at a rate that is comparable. The brilliance of the poly is that the US "strong dollar policy" by escalating the value of the US dollar is then able to determine the market price of the output of all our trading partners in terms of our dollar. This is central to understanding what is going on since this then allows the owners of the power to print US dollars and/or create them through the fractional reserver banking system to put tremendous pressure on whatever commodity market or financial market they chose to "fix" the market price at a level that allows them to absorb in the trading function all of the value added of all the manufacturing and commodity producing nations of the world. The game involves the insistance that they accept the US dollar as payment at whatever exchange rate they set and transfer their output to us at the price the US determines. It is a new electronic form of colonialism that effectively vaccums the value added from the producers and captures it in the trading accounts of those firms that can manipulate the spot markets. Those manipulations are made possible by the unlimited leverage that is possible from a combination of printing power of money in a fiat system and the unlimited magnification that is possible through the use of derivatives.
Mr Gresham
(02/21/02; 17:38:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 70563)
kludge
"Type slowly...I'm a slow reader" sounds like about the smartest request I've seen yet on an Internet forum.
And I don't think we want bad things to happen to people -- it's a complex bunch of fears, hopes and expectations, but I guess you could say what we want most is for the truth to come out, so we can keep a simpler set of life's books in our heads, and so that other people can learn to do the same.
We think they've been misled, by some sharp dealers, and by their own wishful thinking -- so it's frustrating to try and pin the blame somewhere. Being the bearer of bad news is a dangerous occupation -- the inventor of a lip zipper might have a market among us?
Plus we're not absolutely sure that WE are right, in all ways about all occasions, so we're looking for some reality confirmation sometime. Of course, with markets, that means it's then too late to improve one's own position once absolute confirmation is received.
Economics and psychology -- two "soft" sciences that rule people's lives ruthlessly, with few groundrules in place for keeping things on an even keel...
nickel62
(02/21/02; 17:26:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70562)
Does anyone know?
If Daniel Pearl is related to Richard Pearl the past Undersecretary of Defense?
kludge
(02/21/02; 17:18:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70561)
Has gold's purchasing power really been eroded?
Can ANYONE point me to information/research that gold purchases' less today than it has over the last, say, 2000 years? I discount the late seventies/early eighties as holding gold was just recently legalized (surely the currently illegal drugs would violently fluctuate in price should they be legalized overnight).
This was the basis of my first/second posts here, and in digging on my own I have yet to find where gold's purchasing power has been eroded. Don't get me wrong, I'm pro-physical gold - just trying to honestly find some evidence that the gold price is being manipulated.
I have done some modest research into prices in the first century AD and found the cost of items in gold to be, at least, comparable to prices today on wheat and garments (food/shelter, two of our most basic needs). In fact, many items are cheaper today. And while an ounce of gold won't buy you an Armani suit today, it will buy a suitcoat, trousers, vest, shirt, and tie at JC Penney's (tailoring is free according to the Mrs). (oops, just checked and found Armani suits on sale for $350 dollars on the Internet).
Prices seem similar in Japan (when considering 39,000 Yen to an oz of gold):
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kouri/15i5.htm
I can post my refs for the value of gold in much earlier days, if anyone's interested, so that you may do your own math on how many grams in an Aureus gold piece, and how many modius's (modii?) of wheat it would buy.
So where's a gold cabal/collusion play into this if gold buys about today what it bought then? Granted the physical couldn't meet the paper-playing demand, and investing in something no one (noone?) can deliver seems ill advised, but even taking this into account - it appears that gold still buys about what it always has.
I didn't buy gold as an investment, but as savings instrument. "DOWN DOW, DOWN" and "JUMP SPOT, JUMP" seems to me, at least if taken to extreme, to be begging for an economic upheaval in the world that would be devastating (except for maybe Japanese housewives and the oil states?). Everyone here seem like good people that wouldn't want third-world oil countries ruling the world and BB's bone-pile growing just so they could make a buck, so what am I missing please? If the cabal's the cause, where's the effect? And type slowly, I'm not an economist but I am a slow reader :)
AdvThanksVance
CoBra(too)
(02/21/02; 16:12:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70560)
@ Sector - Re. your Marshal Auerbach Essay -
Wich I find not only compelling, but also the recipe the Us has been following for a long time. The Japanese bubble burst back in 1989 and as someone put it 'followed down a river of hope', which probably now flows into the sea of sorrow.
The first US bubble the NASDAQ burst 2 years ago and the rest of the Equity and Bond Markets will follow. The next one already cracking at the seams may be the credit bubble. Wouldn't it then follow that the Dollar bubble will also deflate.
Taking down the western monetary (trial)system of free floating currencies with it? Including the great ideas of SDR's being the "ersatz" lender of last resort as the IMF, World Bank and the FED, instead of gold as the final arbiter of value.
It occurs to me that any fiat system based on promises, and measured according to economic performance is an invite to cheat. And a system based on the above and also has a bonus of the one and only major reserve currency, or seignorage of the leading currency is like a pack of stacked cards, or simply just a house of cards.
For years the cracks of the system were merely papered over. All of you here know what I'm talking about. But now we may have a totally mired Japan taking down rapidly the rest of the former S.E.A Tigers. We also have Argentina doing the same for S.A.
And we have an unprecedented debt level in the US, is it private, corporate or government. And above all, the trust in the institutions, not only to observe fairness of markets is waning rapidly.
In an environment where the financial sector placing Trillion Dollar bets, leveraging their last Dollar by multiples of hundred, we call it hedging? Now this policy of unprecedented growth of the derivative mania is cracking wide open - and we all hear the position of the derivative notional value of JMPC surpassing 29 Trillion. Three times of the US annual GDP - call that hedging! - and 35 Trillion are reported to be gold hedges. Gold hedges are really physical short positions. As it has been written, too big to fail - too big to bail, says it all.
As I wondered why BuBa's Wetelke made his gold remarks recently. I don't anymore, though I'm kind'a convinced the gold's strong fundamentals will deny any victory for long to the meddlers.
Cheers cb2
PS:@ MK - Gold for our Steff and Silver for a phantastic second run of Bode in the olympic giant slalom - what a race. Compelled to say told you so, no, I say congrats to both!
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 15:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70559)
US Dollar in Devaluation!
The US Dollar is devaluing against Gold. The dollar now stands at a mere 0.0034013 oz.of Gold and falling. The case is even more extreme for other World currencies. And the YEN and Euro? Pathetic.
TownCrier
(02/21/02; 15:17:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 70558)
Mr. Gresham asks,
"And wasn't there some mention of it becoming a per-person, not per-account, coverage one year after this upcoming changeover..."
I believe it was somewhere around two weeks ago that I posted a brief bit on the two-phase aspect of this over the next year.
Quickly stated, phase two implemented next April (2003) will be such that the new limitations on deposit insurance will become effective for transaction accounts in addition to savings accounts.
R.
sector
(02/21/02; 14:38:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 70557)
Marshall Auerbach...On Japan
http://www.prudentbear.com/international.htm
[...
Above all else, the condition of over indebtedness creates a problem of demand. It is not the failure to write-off bad loans that inhibits recovery. Indeed, consider the consequences were the problem loans to be written off more aggressively, as both Messrs. Bush and O'Neill advocate: banks would be selling more and more property assets into the market, thereby depressing underlying asset values more and further undermining the ability of households to service their debts, given the corresponding decline of the largest asset on their personal balance sheets: their respective property holdings. By the same token on the corporate side, when the banks call in loans and companies try to repay debt, firms liquidate assets and reduce expenditures on labour and capital. These actions further depress economic activity, prices, corporate cash flows and the ability of borrowers to service debts.
As Andrew Smithers notes, if the decline in outstanding bank loans and the consequent weakness of money supply were due to the unwillingness of banks to extend loans to healthy borrowers, then there would be some merit in the call by Bush for Japan to get its bad loan problem sorted out once and for all. But recovery is not going to be aided by encouraging cash rich companies to dissipate their savings by investing in uneconomic projects (at a time when Japanese capital expenditure is still well above historic trend), nor by enabling bankrupt companies to borrow more money. In addition, there is nothing stopping non-Japanese banks, which do not have comparable problems to their Japanese counterparts, from stepping into the breach and providing loans to Japanese companies if conditions generally warranted it. After all, these banks were desperate to break into the Japanese domestic loan market during the bubble years, so now would seem to be their golden opportunity to increase market share rapidly.
But there has been no dramatic growth in lending by foreign banks, which one might have expected, if the problems facing Japan were simply one of sickly domestic banks unable or unwilling to extend credit and thereby frustrating recovery, rather than one of acutely depressed domestic demand. Therefore, the assertion that the country's problems are compounded by a troubled banking system burdened by NPLs, which in turn discourages new lending to worthy borrowing recipients, is not an accurate characterisation of Japan's current woes.
It follows that simply getting the banks to deal with their problem loans once and for all is not the panacea that the President has suggested during his recent trip. Stimulating demand is what is required, likely far in excess of what is generally appreciated by those with a strong adherence to the economic orthodoxy of the past twenty years, especially with private investment likely to remain very weak, as it did in the United States between 1933-1937. This means adopting a policy that inflates away the debt and facilitating further consumption as the real cost of debt servicing falls.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
There is no way out. If Japan inflates and the yen keeps falling, the yen price of gold soars and the rush is on in earnest. If they don't inflate the insurance companies, which must pay 5% but earn only 1% soon die taking the weak banks with them.
Japan is damned if they do and damned if they don't and the only winner is gold.
AU_Poor
(2/21/02; 14:04:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 70556)
Japanese bank account insurance/protection
Do the Japanese banks have insurance similar to the FDIC? Wonder how many failed banks can be bailed out at $75,000 per account until that insurance fund is depleted? Then what?
If I were in a situation where a large scale banking failure could occur, the last place I would want ANY of my money would be an insolvent bank.
Rock
(2/21/02; 13:58:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 70555)
Chief Economist of CNBC speaks of Japan
there was a quick moment when i was watching squat box this morning that the chief economist of CNBC i forgot her name ( i think it was marie but not marie b) anyway she confirmed what the knights and ladies have been discussing here at the table regarding Japan. Mark Hans mentioned to her that Japan has been near bankruptcy before and the banks will bail them out again but marie told him its different this time and that people in japan are buying gold for protection. it was a wonderful moment in deed.
if i may say to the knights and ladies the way i see it is that gold is a lot like a huge volcano. Sometimes it smokes and does get the streets attention but then when the smoke dies down so does the interest but then like mt. saint helens one day she blows and when she blows the destruction and loss is great. so will it be with gold.
and likewise when this enonomy blows it going to be big. gold acts the same way sometimes it smokes like the volcanowhen it goes up 30% one month and other times no one pays much attentino when it goes back down 20% or whatever.
like the volcano it gets attention from time to time and even though the warning signs are there in the precious metals market as they were before mt st helen blew the masses still refused to acknowledge the hard core facts until it was too late. so will it be with gold.
i feel finanially safer with the PM's because no matter what happens to the economy i have something i can put my hands on. i think it was cavern man who mentioned how when he made his first investment as a child he went to the bank to purchase some silver coins but the represenative at the bank convienced him to take the silver certificate instead.
after getting home cavern man remembered looking down at the glorified piece a paper in his hand and feeling he got ripped off and thats my sentiment exactly. good day and don't lose hope, we have come a long way and like the fearless horse on the battle field who can smell war, so we can sense something big is about to happen in the precious metal markets.
Gandalf the White
(2/21/02; 13:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 70554)
The CONTEST is now placed into the USAGOLD vault to await tomorrow's results !
Sorry Creosote, too late ! (2/21/02; 13:01:35MT msg#: 70553)
The DEADLINE time has passed and ALL ENRIES are RECORDED! FYI, the "Settlement" price on the Feb '02 COMEX contract today was $293.2 --- and there are less than 24 hours before we shall know to whom the LUCKY ANGEL will be greeting !
Best wishes to all.
<;-)
Creosote
(2/21/02; 13:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70553)
Contest
****303.5**** I believe the powers that be have not entirely given up on their agenda, or my guess would be much hirer
sector
(2/21/02; 12:55:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 70552)
Japanese Switching Deposits to "Reduce" Uninsured Assets
IF that were happening the deposits in smaller banks would be rising...they are actually falling. This is an indication that the Japanese already know that most smaller banks are just as insolvent as the big ones.
The real economic "ball" is in the hands of the elderly Japanese with their life savings on the line [$150,000 for the 60s group and $157,000 for the 70s and over group].
No matter how it is derived the amount of uninsured savings in Japanese is vast. My numbers say $621 Billion, others say $1.5 trillion. The bottom line is that if only a tiny fraction of that wealth is transferred to gold for security then the demand will be staggering...in the thousands of tonnes.
This damand will break the cabal...the equation is that simple. Watch Japan...but if one waits too much longer, the gold boat will be gone.
Gandalf the White
(02/21/02; 12:15:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 70551)
OFFICIAL listing of Guesses in COMEX GC2G close CONTEST
Over 100 are in the running for the LUCKY ANGEL !
Now the BAD news about a "last minute" entry.
---
ONE Dublicate Entry !! (which I must disqualify)
--
SEEKER OF THE GOLDEN GRAIL (02/21/02; 11:46:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70546)
CONTEST ENTRY
****$293.10****
SORRY "SOTGG", but Boilermaker just beat you to this number.
<;-(
===
FINAL LISTING OF PROGNOSTICATIONS !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value
****$8,752.0**** The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT msg#: 70296
****$5,126.0**** R Powell (02/18/02; 13:19:28MT msg#: 70320
****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090
****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049
****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224
****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063
****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015
****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010
****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164
****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206
****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110
****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104
****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281
****$320.4**** Rock (02/18/02; 16:33:35MT msg#: 70328
****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201
****$320.0**** Henri (02/20/02; 16:58:42MT msg#: 70482
****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278
****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102
****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016
****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076
****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012
****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277
****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217
****$314.0**** nickel62 (2/19/02; 08:47:16MT msg#: 70377
****$313.5**** KTC (02/17/02; 22:25:55MT msg#: 70288)
****$313.4**** pdeep (02/18/02; 16:25:02MT msg#: 70326
****$313.0**** DOWNUNDER (02/20/02; 18:43:09MT msg#: 70487
****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009
****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138
****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160
****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205
****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070
****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080
****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008
****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141
****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021
****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014
****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099
****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143
****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282
****$304.5**** Joepmbull (02/18/02; 11:39:21MT msg#: 70318
****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190
****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041
****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013
****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236
****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184
****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019
****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079
****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195
****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235
****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054
****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097
****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011
****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053
****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089
****$298.2**** bob leppo (02/21/02; 11:46:28MT msg#: 70547
****$298.0**** Goldilocks 1 (2/20/02; 08:11:44MT msg#: 70450
****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103
****$297.4**** auric (02/18/02; 22:11:08MT msg#: 70360
****$297.3**** Richman (02/20/02; 13:09:30MT msg#: 70466
****$297.0**** G$ (2/21/02; 08:18:08MT msg#: 70527
****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037
****$297.0**** Brett Woods (02/20/02; 22:51:23MT msg#: 70503
****$296.7**** JA (02/21/02; 10:41:47MT msg#: 70543)
****$296.4**** Au-some (2/19/02; 07:22:18MT msg#: 70373
****$295.8**** The Hoople (02/21/02; 09:52:06MT msg#: 70535
****$295.6**** coco (02/18/02; 16:29:13MT msg#: 70327
****$295.1**** Buena Fe (02/21/02; 08:50:48MT msg#: 70530
****$295.0****.Beowulf (2/19/02; 15:47:47MT msg#: 70413
****$294.8**** The Victorian (02/20/02; 20:56:17MT msg#: 70496
****$294.5**** turkey hunter (02/18/02; 15:05:26MT msg#: 70322
****$294.1**** BIG JOHN (2/21/02; 00:59:32MT msg#: 70512
****$294.0**** Canuck (2/21/02; 04:41:16MT msg#: 70517
****$293.9**** Maiden Fan (02/20/02; 23:26:42MT msg#: 70504
****$293.8**** Goldenmean (02/21/02; 02:10:20MT msg#: 70514
****$293.6**** sourdough (02/20/02; 11:05:24MT msg#: 70462
****$293.4**** Gimli_ (02/21/02; 09:55:24MT msg#: 70537
****$293.3**** jlfletc (02/20/02; 12:14:44MT msg#: 70463
****$293.1**** Boilermaker (02/21/02; 10:11:39MT msg#: 70540
****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249
****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067
****$292.7**** Neubie (02/21/02; 08:53:56MT msg#: 70532)
****$292.5**** Black Blade (02/20/02; 20:07:46MT msg#: 70493
****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341
****$292.2**** White Rose (2/21/02; 07:25:42MT msg#: 70526)
****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460
****$291.7**** JCF (2/21/02; 07:25:07MT msg#: 70525
****$291.5**** Max Rabbitz (2/19/02; 21:24:30MT msg#: 70430
****$291.0**** Humble Pie (02/20/02; 14:35:45MT msg#: 70469
****$290.9**** kludge (02/18/02; 13:15:21MT msg#: 70319
****$290.7**** Narroway Walk (2/21/02; 03:51:47MT msg#: 70516
****$290.5**** mikal (02/20/02; 22:03:35MT msg#: 70499)
****$290.4**** John Doe (02/17/02; 23:06:16MT msg#: 70289
****$290.1**** Lamprey (2/21/02; 05:48:58MT msg#: 70519
****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026
****$289.8**** TEX (02/20/02; 23:38:25MT msg#: 70506
****$289.4**** Wky_Woodsman (2/20/02; 01:08:19MT msg#: 70435
****$288.8**** ausome (2/19/02; 12:02:49MT msg#: 70390
****$286.8**** Paten (02/20/02; 16:58:35MT msg#: 70481
****$284.0**** OpalBill (02/18/02; 18:58:30MT msg#: 70335
****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
###########################
THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
===
<;-)
Mr Gresham
(02/21/02; 12:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 70550)
Japanese account protection limit
BTW, somebody else must be wondering about this and wanting confirmation: The limit on account protections is per ACCOUNT, not per person or family, right?
As it's always said with FDIC coverage, you just open another account, at another bank, and you're "covered". (I don't think you get it on two accounts at the same bank, unless it's in a different family member's name, right?)
For the terribly wealthy, of course, they might have trouble finding enough banks to spread it over, but we'd all love to have problems like that, eh? Plus, it would be hard to consolidate the accountholder's information over many banks, without centralizing all of the FDIC "insurance" info.
(If you're nationalizing a big part of your banking system all at once, as Japan may be headed toward, then this centralized "insurance" becomes more conceivable.)
Anyway, the new Japanese limit is half-practical problem, half-psychological worry-maker at this point. And wasn't there some mention of it becoming a per-person, not per-account, coverage one year after this upcoming changeover, which would then close the multi-bank option?
Operative
(02/21/02; 12:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 70549)
Forget Enron...It's Japan
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=26544
Snip
<As
we in America remain
preoccupied with Enron and
the largest business
bankruptcy ever, the Japan
economy, as a whole, is
facing panic and default on a
scale few in the West can
imagine, let alone foresee.
Rygi Musha, a Japanese
strategist for the Deutsche
Bank in Japan probably put
the most ominous words to it.
He said, "The world is
heading for a
once-in-a-century economic
crisis." >
*** Apologize in advance if already posted, or if this is considered "promotional material". A story worth reading, maybe even twice.
Mr Gresham
(02/21/02; 12:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 70548)
Fiat Triangle
Just some offhand "thinking like a crim --er, banker -- here.
Europe is interested in stability while its Euro grows in use and depth through world markets. Early upsets to the dollar and yen could create a backwash that drives TOO much interest toward gold, over Euros, among some of its sought-after "clients".
Japan's crisis might be coming on a little too much, too fast, for the liking of Euro's managers? US (and US media) seem to be letting the Japan crisis "cat out of the bag" more candidly than they usually do for world-upsetting crises, d'ya think? US Prez goes to Japan to put even more spotlight on it in weeks ahead.
US sees itself as a mighty tanker (not yet a Titanic one), and sees Euro as a tiny tugboat. Why not throw it a hot potato -- "Here! YOU manage the crisis." Capital flight has gone TO US and USD in past crises; why not play that trump card one more time, against the new guy at the table, while his stake is still comparatively small?
A little "jawboning" gold down among Euro managers doesn't cost them anything, might just deflate a little sense of crisis momentum?
"When you're playing with fiat, you're playing for time."
bob leppo
(02/21/02; 11:46:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70547)
contest entry
I predict $298.20
SEEKER OF THE GOLDEN GRAIL
(02/21/02; 11:46:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70546)
CONTEST ENTRY
****$293.10****
The big move begins in April /May of this year and explodes in July as investors flee paper assets such as stocks and bonds. As stock market and dollar bubble deflates, bonds will reverse its last 5 year divergence course and instead of heading higher will fall along with the dollar and stock market. Gold will soar as its the only store of value outside the financial system.
Gandalf the White
(02/21/02; 11:14:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70545)
TICK TOCK !
ATTENTION all procrastinating prognosticators !!!
The DEADLINE to enter the CONTEST is HIGH NOON in Denver.
Thsi is in about 45 MINUTES !
This will be my last call for "CONTEST GUESSES"
<;-)
nickel62
(02/21/02; 10:57:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 70544)
Just incase you thougth Robert Rubin wasn't involved!
Lay's Lobbying Reached the Top of Treasury
Enron Chief Leaned Hard as Company Sought to Avoid U.S. Oversight of Derivatives Deals
By Kathleen Day and James V. Grimaldi
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, February 21, 2002; Page E01
Enron Corp. chief executive Kenneth L. Lay offered then-Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin a seat on Enron's board of directors in 1999, when Enron was lobbying intensely to block government efforts to regulate its derivatives-trading business.
Letters and other documents released yesterday by the Treasury Department under a Freedom of Information Act request by The Washington Post and other news organizations show how Lay sought to influence the Clinton administration on issues affecting Enron. Lay also sought help from Bush administration officials last fall before the company filed for bankruptcy protection.
Lay wrote to Rubin two days after Rubin announced he would step down as President Bill Clinton's treasury secretary and about two months before he turned over the job to Lawrence H. Summers. Rubin rejected the offer of an Enron board seat.
A few months later, Lay referred to his connections with Rubin in a letter to Summers, urging Treasury officials to back off from proposals to regulate Enron's trading in financial products, known as derivatives, that were tied to energy commodities. Enron was preparing to launch an online operation to trade energy derivatives.
The Clinton administration, led by Treasury officials, decided against government oversight of derivative traders such as Enron. In December 2000, Congress adopted that policy in legislation that exempted from government oversight the kind of energy derivative contracts traded by Enron.
"The debate was not about deregulation, it was about an absence of regulation," Commodity Futures Exchange Commissioner Thomas J. Erickson, a Clinton appointee, said in an interview. Erickson was opposed to the portion of the bill that removed energy derivative contracts from government oversight.
Some market experts -- including former Treasury undersecretary of finance Gary Gensler, who served under Rubin and Summers -- said derivatives transactions didn't cause Enron's collapse. Still, others said the market should not be unregulated.
Enron relied heavily on derivatives in two ways. It traded them to capture profits across all its businesses. Enron's executives also used derivatives in complex financial transactions that distorted the financial picture that Enron projected to investors.
"I just hope we don't have to have another crisis in the financial markets to get everyone's attention," said Sen. Jon S. Corzine (D-N.J.), an advocate of increased regulation of derivatives.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) has introduced legislation to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission more authority to oversee energy derivatives by revoking some provisions of the 2000 law, though it is unclear how much chance it has of passing. That would return the rules to what they were before the 2000 legislation, when the commission had some jurisdiction over companies such as Enron, Erickson said.
Over-the-counter derivatives are financial contracts that are not traded on a formal exchange. Their worth is based on the value of underlying stocks or bonds, interest rates, currencies, pork bellies, electricity, gold, metals or other commodities. They are used to hedge against the risk of price fluctuations or to speculate on those changes.
Federal bank regulators oversee banks that deal in over-the-counter derivatives. The Securities and Exchange Commission oversees securities firms that trade them. But there is no direct monitoring of the actual trading of over-the-counter derivatives. So derivatives traders such as Enron that are not affiliated with a bank or securities firm operate without government monitoring. As the government was trying to decide what kind of oversight -- if any -- was proper for these kinds of traders, Lay made his overture to Rubin.
In a May 14, 1999, letter, Lay wrote: "If you are considering joining any corporate boards, I would very much like to talk to you.
"Given the way Enron has evolved, not only do we badly need a person with your experience and insights (gained both at Goldman Sachs and at the U.S. Treasury), but also I think you would find serving on our board intellectually and otherwise interesting."
Lay said in the letter he also had placed a call to Rubin "in the hope that I mention this to you personally."
"Bob Rubin was offered 30 to 40 board memberships. Rubin had no interest; he declined," said Leah Johnson, a Citigroup spokeswoman.
Rubin became chairman of the executive committee of Citigroup, one of Enron's main creditors, after leaving Treasury. Last fall, when Enron ran into financial trouble, Rubin contacted Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher asking "what he thought of the idea" of calling bond-rating agencies to help forestall a crippling reduction in Enron's credit rating.
Fisher told Rubin that he didn't think it was advisable and he didn't make a call, Treasury officials have said.
In a letter sent on the same day as Lay's letter to Rubin, Lay wrote to congratulate Summers, the incoming Treasury secretary. "I can't imagine anybody better prepared" for the job, Lay said.
Five months later, in another letter, Lay complained to Summers about proposals to regulate over-the-counter derivatives. Lay said he was upset that the Treasury's assistant general counsel, John Yetter, had said at a public forum that the President's Working Group on Financial Markets might recommend regulation of "otherwise unregulated entities, such as Enron" that trade in derivatives.
"As you would expect, we are troubled by being singled out, but even more troubled by the notion that financial regulators may be considering any regulation of OTC [over-the-counter] dealers, particularly in the energy field, where we believe derivatives are truly customer based risk management tools," Lay wrote.
"Enron believes there is no need for any additional regulation" because there have been no problems," Lay wrote. He then asked for a chance "to make our case" if increased regulation were in the offing and requested "a call or note" in reply.
Lay concluded by referring to Summers's previous boss. "I spent some time with Bob Ruben [sic] in Shanghai last week and he appears to be doing very well," Lay wrote. "I must say he looked more relaxed than I have seen him in years."
The next month, in November 1999, the working group's report was returned and Summers sent a copy to Lay, telling him that it "is not recommending legislative action with respect to derivatives dealers [such as Enron] that are unaffiliated with a federally regulated entity at this time."
"My formulaic response to Lay's letter speaks for itself in making clear that the Treasury Department's position is set out in several previously issued reports," Summers said yesterday.
Lay said in his letter to Summers: "There have been no problems in the energy derivatives market that warrant regulation." But over-the-counter derivatives have been involved in a series of scandals over the past decade.
In 1994, Bankers Trust suffered significant losses on derivatives when two clients, Gibson Greetings Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co., refused to honor their obligations, arguing that Bankers Trust had misled them.
That same year, Orange County, Calif., reported a $1.7 billion loss on derivatives sold by Merrill Lynch and other major derivative dealers, leading the county to seek bankruptcy protection. In 1995, Britain's oldest investment bank, Barings, collapsed from more than $1 billion in losses related to derivatives trading.
Three years later, a giant Connecticut hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management L.P., which relied heavily on over-the-counter derivatives to speculate on the difference in values among various currencies, nearly failed.
"There ought to be more regulation of derivatives given the explosion of the market," said Lynn Turner, former chief accountant for the Securities and Exchange Commission. "When you get a more regulated market -- meaning more transparency in pricing -- you not only get better pricing but it provides a more efficient market, because more people will trust it and participate."
Also among the correspondence released yesterday are letters to Treasury advocating and praising officials for taking free-trade, deregulatory stands in energy markets overseas and with the World Trade Organization. Lay also asked Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill last year to speak before a meeting of the Business Council, a group of U.S. corporate leaders.
Staff writer Peter Behr and researcher Lucy Shackelford contributed to this report.
JA
(02/21/02; 10:41:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 70543)
Contest
****296.7****
It has been so long since I posted I didn't know if my password would still work. However I am always interested in an opportunity to add a little "precious" to the coffers. As I am writing this post Feb Gold stands at 293.4, up a little on the day. The Stock market is struggling to keep a smile on it's face but I doubt it can maintain upbeat through tomorrow. I anticipate gold will move up a little tomorrow as investors begin to look for safety to get them through the weekend.
sector
(02/21/02; 10:33:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 70542)
"Injection of Public Funds"...Japan Seeks "Salvation"
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3MNTDWXXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Tokyo jumps on talk of government measures
By Ken Hijino in Tokyo
Published: February 21 2002 01:19 | Last Updated: February 21 2002 12:07
Renewed speculation that the government may announce measures to combat deflation propelled the Tokyo market higher on Thursday.
The Nikkei 225 jumped 461.29, or 4.7 per cent, to 10,295.42 while the broader Topix 31.98, or 3.3 per cent, to 988.89. Gainers outnumbered fallers by 1,229 to 155, while a total of 787m shares exchanged hands.
Hopes that the government is about to emergency measures to boost the economy have been mounting after the governor of the Bank of Japan met with the prime minister earlier in the week.
Domestic media reported that Masaru Hayami, the BoJ governor, urged the prime minister to consider an injection of public funds into banks and that the two discussed anti-deflation measures on Tuesday.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
There is $620 Billion in Jappanese savings to be "uninsured" as of April 1rst 2002.
If the "injection of public funds" referred to above include THOSE savings via some kind of "nationalization" of the banks, then we don't have too much longer to wait for "The Big One".
Tommy P
(02/21/02; 10:28:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70541)
www.kitco.com
I can't seem to get on line, is anyone else having the same problems??
Boilermaker
(02/21/02; 10:11:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 70540)
Contest
********$293.10*******
Looks like the price drifting higher but expect Friday sellback. Also, a friend at JPM owes me a favor and will provide some market "guidance" tomorrow. Just kidding.
Many thanks to MK for the prize offering and Gandolf for running the contest.
Gandalf the White
(02/21/02; 10:11:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 70539)
The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
ATTENTION all procrastinating prognosticators !!!
LESS than two hours remain before the DEADLINE to enter the CONTEST !!!!
Do not wait toooooo long.
<;-)
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 10:07:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 70538)
AIG Shares Fall on SEC Probe
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020221/business_financial_aig_stocks_dc_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG), the world's No. 1 insurer by market value, dropped more than 3 percent as unsettling reports about the company spooked investors.
Black Blade: Yep, another one.
Gimli_
(02/21/02; 09:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70537)
Contest
******$293.40******
Having jumped in with an early guess that lost by one notch, I thought I would jump in late this time to prove that it just doesn't matter when you spin the wheel. ;-))
Black Blade
(02/21/02; 09:52:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 70536)
Japan's alarm bells toll on deaf ears
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20020221/120496.html
Fears rise banking system could collapse like a house of cards
Snippit:
Take Enron, multiply its off-balance-sheet debt by a trillion and what do you get? Japan. That's the joke making the rounds these days about the world's most dysfunctional economy.
"There are myriad problems with the banks, many of them covered up by impenetrable accounting conventions and an army of managers, regulators, auditors and credit raters who have been happy to look the other way for decades," said chief economist Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics in a recent report. "How else can a banking system run up a bad-debt book of 200-trillion yen -- US$1.5-trillion -- without triggering alarms."
There is an estimated 1,386-trillion yen (US$10.4-trillion) in private savings stashed away, which Japan could comfortably live off for years, analysts say. Current account figures last week showed Japan earned more from offshore investments and overseas subsidiaries in 2001 than from conventional trade, causing its income surplus to exceed its trade surplus for the first time on record.
Black Blade: G$ makes a good point that I didn't even consider. The Japanese are scared just as much as the Argentines and they are looking to put their Yen into something - anything, before the April Fools deadline for protected savings at insolvent Japanese banks. This could explain yesterday's 450+ rise on the Nikkei. If even 1% of that $10.4 Trillion in Japanese savings were to find its way into Gold - then look out! "Interesting Times"
The Hoople
(02/21/02; 09:52:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 70535)
Comex jackal price in confetti paper
**** 295.8 ****
I think it was Marx who once referred to capitalists "quaking in their stolen boots". Maybe we should update that to bullion bankers quaking in their stolen Guccis. The new fad on Wall Street will be brown corduroy pants when gold leaves the paper game behind. Dow/Gold ratio 1:1 as Richard Russell says. Short fiat, long real money.
Galearis
(02/21/02; 09:30:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 70534)
@ Carl H re: Volume and Price Charts
Carl H (2/19/02; 00:36:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70365)
Silver/Gold Price Graphs
***********************
Are there any silver or gold price graphs on the net that show volume (like the stock graphs)?
Thanaks!
{Ref:}
{http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/1920022/default.html}
**************************
There you go:
Gold: (April)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/42
Silver: (March)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/32
USAGOLD Market Commentary
(02/21/02; 09:27:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 70533)
Gold Peers Over Foxhole Rim Following Bundesbank Blindside. . . . .
NEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.
Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)
New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.
If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.
Neubie
(02/21/02; 08:53:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 70532)
Contest Entry
****$292.7****
Gold has been struggling all week and the manipulators seem to be effective in keeping the price down here a while longer.
Gandalf the White
(02/21/02; 08:53:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 70531)
Jump SPOT ! JUMP !!
SPOT Gold has lifted off in NY from the $290 level and is moving up !
BUT remember that it is the Feb '02 COMEX Option that the CONTEST is based upon, which should be close to SPOT, but may not be exactly the same !
<;-)
Buena Fe
(02/21/02; 08:50:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 70530)
Contest
******$295.10******
We're stuck in the matrix of Ground-hog day (the movie with Bill Murray) until ....... the "Brilliant event" (by Mar15(?)) resets the cosmic clock and reality is percieved another way (the $ has no value).
G$
(02/21/02; 08:31:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 70528)
Cave Man / Nikkei
CNBC actually had a good point this morning. I don't follow international charts as much as I should, but apparently the Argentine market rallied shortly before the bottom fell out of the currency as people rushed to put their cash into ANYTHING! Doesn't make much sense to me to swap one kind of paper for another but that was her observation.
G$
G$
(2/21/02; 08:18:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 70527)
Price Guessing Contest
********$297.0*********
Just a technical retracement level...that's all.
G$
White Rose
(2/21/02; 07:25:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70526)
*** 292.20 ***
Continued short term pressure on gold. Long term prospects are excellent!
JCF
(2/21/02; 07:25:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 70525)
Gold Guessing Contest
*****$291.7*****
Good luck to all Knights & Ladies!...
Go Gold. Go Silver.
Black Blade
(2/21/02; 06:48:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 70524)
Corporate Losses Increase
More corporate losses are being reported. Diana Corp posts loss, and Ciena posts a record loss. It appears that a lot of companies are revealing their warts. Meanwhile the Wall Street pimps are crying and wailing that the jobless data is a lagging indicator - though when the jobless numbers are in decline they seem to think that it is a leading indicator. Hmmm... Meanwhile the numbers that really could are corporate NET profits, and those NET profits are getting rather scarce these days. In a word - "GRIM"
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(2/21/02; 06:34:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 70523)
Jobless Claims Grows
Jobless claims grow by 10,000 to 383,000. The "official Bone Pile" numbers grow while the actual number is likely much higher. Meanwhile, many major corporations are posting greater losses and guiding lower estimates for next quarter. This is not a sign of a economy in recovery.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(2/21/02; 06:20:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70522)
Gold now costs just $156/oz to produce - report
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=19413
Snippit:
Sydney-based AME Mineral Economics has released its annual Gold Production Cost Report, analysing the cost structures of gold-mines and proposed new developments in 24 countries. These operations account for over 72% of current mined output. Cash costs of gold production averaged $156/oz last year, a small (2,5%) decline from the $160/oz mean value recorded by the same mine sample in 2000, and less than the 9% fall posted a year ago.
Black Blade: Gold has gained strongly against depreciating currencies Worldwide, though the US Dollar is still strong. Considering problems in Argentina and Japan it appears that Gold should be the currency (or savings vehicle of choice) of choice in foreign lands.
nickel62
(2/21/02; 05:55:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70521)
AIG executive slips up and states the truth for a change.....
Mr Tizzio, in a rare public appearance for anyone at AIG other than Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the company's chairman and normal spokesperson, said there had been 487 class-action claims for securities fraud in federal courts last year. In 2000, that had been just 216.
The number of suits started to grow dramatically with the bursting of the dotcom bubble and there is no end in sight, according to Bob Hartwig of the insurance institute. "The premium rates that were charged did not anticipate the tremendous surge in suits," he said. "[After Enron], the entire investment community has had the revelation that audited reports may not be worth the paper they're written on."
Black Blade
(2/21/02; 05:52:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 70520)
Large Losses on Wall Street
The first reports out this morning show severe loss reports from Nextel, and Radio Shack, and a whopping -$1.30 loss for Aetna. If this isn economic recovery, I would wonder what a recession/depression is supposed to look like.
- Black Blade
Lamprey
(2/21/02; 05:48:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70519)
Gold Guessing Contest
*****$290.10*****
Price is based on time studies (one day left!), support levels, and guessing real estate left open...
Out until Saturday - Good luck, All.
Cavan Man
(2/21/02; 04:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 70518)
Nikkei
Who or what is buying it? The churning over there is beginning to resemble the DOW.
Canuck
(2/21/02; 04:41:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 70517)
Gold guessing contest
*****294.0*****
A little bounce in anticipation of the expiry of this paper scam and BOOM, revisit $300! Shorts will be advised (told) to cover and first quarter ends soldily above 300, closing in on resistance of 320/325.
Good luck to all!!
Narroway Walk
(2/21/02; 03:51:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 70516)
****$290.7****
Based on my highly propietary TA envolving Fibonacci, moon cycles and ladies hair styles......
Who knows, right?
Just a stab at it.
Fun though.
Brett Woods
(02/21/02; 03:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 70515)
Not only are tensions rising in the middle east.
Headlines in Thursday's Pakistani newspapers
Islamabad, Feb 21, IRNA -- The following headlines appeared in major Pakistani dailies on February 21:
Pakistan not curbing terrorism: India
Pakistan rejects Indian offer to resume freight trains
India plans hike in military budget: report
Pak, Ukraine to pen tank deals soon
http://www.arabworldnews.com (Pakistan)
India, in Standoff With Pakistan, Likely to Boost Arms Spending
By Cherian Thomas
...India has massed 800,000 troops at its border with Pakistan since a Dec. 13 attack on its Parliament by terrorists that it said were backed by Islamabad. Even though India's army is twice as large as Pakistan's, Defense Minister George Fernandes will probably ask for more money to counter Islamabad's ally, China. ...
...India raised defense spending by 14 percent last year, and Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, who next week will present the budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, said this year's increase ``will be in line with what has happened in the past.'' ...
Spending to support and equip India's 1.3 million-strong army accounts for 3.1 percent of gross domestic product and 12 percent of the budget. ...
Russia, which sells a third of its $4 billion in annual military exports to India, is likely to be the biggest beneficiary. Moscow's state-owned defense companies have supplied about two-thirds of India's 4,500 tanks, 743 combat aircraft and other hardware.
Last February, India agreed to buy 310 T-90 battle tanks from Russia worth an estimated $800 million. Earlier, the two countries signed a 15-year, $3 billion deal for 140 Sukhoi-30 MKI jet fighters.
Defense experts say China, with the world's biggest army, is more of a threat to India than Pakistan, which has less than a fifth of India's population and fewer resources. Since the December attack, Pakistan and China have drawn closer together.
``China is strategically trying to hem in India from Pakistan and Tibet,'' said Brahma Chellaney, a defense analyst at the Center for Policy Research, a New Delhi think-tank.
Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf visited Beijing twice after the December attack. Premier Zhu Rongji, in the first visit to India by a Chinese leader in a decade, urged closer trade ties and restraint in the dispute with Pakistan. ...
Animosity between largely Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan dates back to 1947, when both won independence from the United Kingdom. They have fought three wars, two of them over Kashmir. China and India fought a war in 1962 over a border area that remains disputed.
http://www.pakistandaily.com/
Goldenmean
(02/21/02; 02:10:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 70514)
*****293.8*****
Gold will be stuck in a narrow trading range until market or political events make a break-out possible.Looks like they might be able to keep the lid on at least until the weekend.
Waverider
(2/21/02; 01:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 70513)
Usul
Of course...the Gilded Opinion! Thank you, and Good Night All!
Waverider
BIG JOHN
(2/21/02; 00:59:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 70512)
contest
*****294.1*****
Usul
(2/21/02; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 70511)
(No Subject)
http://www.usagold.com/NewGoldMarket.html
"It began with a statement released jointly by European central banks from Washington, D.C. on Sunday, 26 September 1999 under support of the following signatories---
The European Central Bank and the central banks of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and England.
Mr. Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, announced the joint Statement on Gold:
"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the above institutions make the following statement:
1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.
2. The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.
3. The gold sales already decided will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tons.
4. The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.
5. This agreement will be reviewed after five years..."
Black Blade
(2/21/02; 00:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 70510)
ooops!
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Here's the link for Puplava's Market Wrap Up. I got engrossed in watching the Ted Binion murder and his Silver stash of bullion and coin. Ted Binion once owned the Horseshoe casino in Las Vegas. "Interesting"
Waverider
(2/21/02; 00:30:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 70509)
Black Blade
Puplava Link
Please...before you retire - the link's not linked...I get a double take of this page. Cheers and thanks,
Waverider
Black Blade
(2/21/02; 00:21:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 70508)
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/default.html
Central Banks - Battle Gold to Keep it From Rising
Snippit:
The recent gold rally ended yesterday after the German central bank surprised the gold markets by saying it wants to sell off some of its reserves. The statement coming from Germany's central bank shocked the gold markets because previously they had said they would not sell gold. The announcement was designed to stop the gold rally in its tracks. If gold is allowed to rise, many of the world's leading banks in the US and Germany would run into problems with their gold shorts and their derivative books. The statement was designed to have a maximum effect on gold prices to keep gold from rising above $305 an ounce. Several key banks start to get themselves in trouble as prices rise above $305, $315, and $325.
Black Blade: Just another take on the reason for the Reichs bank announcement about possible Gold sales.
Golden Dreams All!
Waverider
(02/21/02; 00:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 70507)
Japan: Banks' Shareholding (BS) Purchase Corporation
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20020221wo12.htm
February 21,2002
Snippit:
"Despite government efforts to promote a body established to buy cross-held shares from banks, which began [begins] operation Friday, observers said the banking industry was showing little interest in the project.
The Financial Services Agency on Tuesday met with heads of major commercial banks to request quick sales of their shareholdings, but bankers showed only polite interest, observers said. Thus the latest government attempt to wipe out the shareholdings that burden the nation's financial institutions may fail, observers said.
Sales of shares through the special account covered by a 2 trillion yen government guarantee valid until April 26 require banks to provide an additional 8 percent of the sales to the purchase corporation, a complicated procedure said to deter banks from using the system.
A provisional law on banks' shareholdings passed in November bans banks in principal from owning shares in excess of their capital base after Sept. 30, 2004. The FSA estimates that major commercial banks would be required to sell about 11 trillion yen worth of stocks to meet the requirement.
The government feared [fears] that large simultaneous sell-offs of banks' shareholdings on the market would lead to a vicious cycle of plunging share prices and worsening bank finances, which in a worst-case scenario could lead to a national financial crisis."
Waverider: What's this? Koizumi's new yen yen PPT? Looks like the banks however, aren't buying into the BS... Purchase Corp.
BTW, I searched the net extensively for information on the Washington Accord and came up with nothing. Any sources of information would be appreciated. TIA and Cheers!
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