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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/21/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Netking
(9/21/01; 22:50:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 62143)
Insurers See $72 Billion in Claims
http://www.iht.com/articles/33385.html
The estimated cost to insurance and reinsurance companies from the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington is climbing sharply, far beyond previous records, leaving the industry to confront what one company called "a previously unimaginable risk potential."
Solomon Weaver
(9/21/01; 22:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62142)
http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm
Nomination for the Hall of Fame
The Credit Bubble Bulletin - by Doug Noland
A Terrible Tragedy
September 21, 2001
. . . . . . . . . . ..
Doug Noland's weekly review is one of my favorite stopping spots on the web. I would like to suggest to our web masters that this weeks posting be added to the Hall of Fame, since it becomes an historic document...a "State of the Nation" speech of sorts.
What I find quite unfortunate is that in the current political environment, this type of analysis seems almost unpatriotic to some. Those at the forum who have come to know me can confirm that I am one of the most bullish on the strength of the great technology miracle (as I am a businessman in the Genomics/Biotechnology field, and see very significant advances in the entire field of molecular medicine).
Doug Noland has done such an excellent job over these many months in pointing out that much of the miracle of the money machine was in the digital printing presses. His weekly postings are living proof to future historians that at least some people saw it coming (economic dislocation). And yet, at the very moment when our great thinkers should have been working hard on getting us through the Great Tragedy of Global Leveraged Finance, we are distracted into the Great Missionary Undertaking of Eliminating Terrorism.
There is an order of Buddist monks in Burma/Thailand/Viet Nam who experienced the great tragedies of the Vietnam war. In their view, the only way to effect real change in the world is to meditate inside oneself to find the root of violence and heal it with Metta (loving kindness). I think it is very important that this great tragic event in NYC has caused many to look into their hearts. I worry that the patriotism could become blind.....not unlike the patriotism of the Hitler youth. Some will consider me contentious...but such energies can arise strongly during hard times.
Much prayer and fasting is now required in this great nation, that our actions will be wise and just.
Poor old Solomon
goldquest
(9/21/01; 21:58:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62141)
IMF Non-usable Resources
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/liquid/2001/0801.htm
I guess that I must have bounced too many times after falling off of the turnip truck! A while back, we determined that Brazil and Mexico had bought gold from the IMF and then used that gold to pay off their debt to the IMF! If you go to the link and scroll down to, "Non-usable Resources," it says, "Resources that are considered non-usable to finance the IMF's ongoing operations and transactions are (i) its gold holdings. Can anyone explain the gold policy of the IMF, other than the gold policy explained by the IMF? TIA
Buena Fe
(9/21/01; 21:43:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 62140)
healing America, healing all of us
honest weights and measures.........
Firemen are receiving the admiration that sports/entertainment people used to! A new trend, I hope it continues.
(nothing against entertainers ....... just society out of balance in perspective of what is valuable)
soon family farmers will earn a decent living again as the financial scales are balanced ........ rock stars may soon need to refinance lifestyle for lack of support/interest
(nothing against rock (my favorite) ........ just society coming back to balanced values!)
Nomad
(9/21/01; 21:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62139)
(No Subject)
http://www.fourthturning.com
I would like to humbly suggest that one of the best ways to understand the speed and violence with which this country has changed gears is to read a book by 2 guys named Strauss and Howe, titled 'The Fourth Turning'. (see website above).
The basic premise of the book is relatively simple ... human social history is defined in terms of saeculums, periods of time roughly equivalent to a single, long human life (80 years). Each of these time periods are in turn divided into 4 generations. As each generation in turn comes into positions of power within the society, they have characteristic personal weaknesses and strengths which move the society in one direction or the other. Particular constellations / configurations of generations repeat again and again throughout history resulting in ... you guessed it cycles of behavior my the society as a whole, which repeat again and again. There truly is nothing new under the sun.
According to the book, as each generation comes into power, the society 'Turns' from one configuration to another. The last of these 'Turnings' (the 4th) comes about as 'an event or series of events which results in a national change in mood' which is called a 'Catalyst.
It can be easily argued that these guys have both the timing and the nature of the WTC event zeroed in.
In addition, the huge changes that you will see (and have seen already) in the character of the nation is predicted quite accurately as well.
Check it out ... it'll give those of you with a brain a leg up on understanding the times to come :) And of course, with gold having special significance in turbulent times, I think it will give you a better foundation for your investment plans as well. I know it has helped me greatly.
On a personal note, I have to say that on the whole, the behavior, hysterics and foolishness that I have seen on the part of virtually ALL of my fellow citizens in response to the WTC, makes me physically ill.
It is quite clear that America (and Americans) have simply gotten a comeuppance that has been a long time in the making. Foolish decisions in the international political arena, combined with equally stupid domestic policies have resulted in the deaths of more than 6000.
Bin Laden was simply one of a thousand possible triggermen.
And by killing others under the guise of a War on Terrorisom (now there's a real oxymoron :), the situation will just be aggravated. Kill a whole bunch more in the Middle East and maybe next time it won't just be thousands who die in retaliation, maybe it will be millions.
Oh well, at least all this killing is good for the price of gold ...
Now why doesn't that make me feel better ? :-(
BR549
(9/21/01; 21:01:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 62138)
Willy
you are the Best!
BR549
(9/21/01; 20:28:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 62137)
Sorry, I forgot
http://www.tributetoheroes.org
the link to contribute to the victims from the 80 countries on my last post. I am sure they will accept Gold.
Netking
(9/21/01; 20:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 62136)
Auspec
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1556000/1556100.stm
Sir Auspec(tor)(62134)The story is here re: French factory blast kills 18 from the BBC.
- Cheers Murray
auspec
(9/21/01; 20:20:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62135)
Rich
I messed up a silver future this week, zagging when I should have been double or triple zagging. Now I need another entry point, hoping for Clif Droke's {see earlier article} October cyclical low. Go figure, one let's a nice profit pass by 6 or 7 times and then misses a big one when taking the small one. Of course, we never go wrong when we take a profit, no? Damn good thing I have a day job.
I bet you really have a louis R. Fan Club T shirt, come clean with us now, I won't tell your cuz.
Regards to a Fellow silver {un}desperado!
auspec
(9/21/01; 20:13:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 62134)
Midas Commentary
Around 9, I received a phone call from a Café member whose sister lives in Toulouse, France. She told him that there was an explosion, many were dead, there was a red cloud over this major city and that all the windows were blown out of all the office buildings in the town.
I kept waiting to hear about it on CNBC. Nothing. Waited some more. Nothing. This was most disconcerting to me because the President of France, Jacque Chirac, had just come back from the United States after a meeting with President Bush. The obvious concern was that it was another terrorist attack.
Later on today, I received another call. "Sixty dead and the damage looked like the World Trade Center." The entire country of France was transfixed to the television and they equated it over there to our disaster - not in the number of deaths but to the scope of the damage. There was also much concern because Toulouse is the location of the factory that makes the French Ariane Rockets that are sent skyward in French Guyana.
Chirac was on his way to Toulouse to survey the tragedy, I was informed.
Obviously, I have no clue whether this was terrorist related, but it must have shaken the TV networks - as they said nothing all day - at least while the stock market was open. That is the equivalent of French Television not reporting on the US terrorist disasters.
That is why I put of the News Alert.
Meanwhile, the US dollar was going through the roof, but CNBC never explained the reason why. It was odd for the dollar to be so strong because our stock market was getting decimated. Of course, the big shots on Wall Street knew what was going on. It was only for the public not to know.
The gold traders in London knew. Gold was firmly bid the entire day over there. The London PM gold fix was $292.50. After that, the US fix team took over and the cabal made sure that gold closed lower than the FIX in London, as usual. It is disgusting how this can go on an on and no one ever says anything but the GATA camp.
One of your fellow Café members puts it best to sum up the hushed-up Toulouse nightmare:
This is being described as an "apparent accident". You tell me. In a city of a million people where you have an apparent accident in the industrial outskirts of town and officials blocked off the industrial area just south of Toulouse, evacuated schools, closed the airport and subway, rerouted drivers and told people to stay home as a precaution. The city's streets were virtually deserted in the hours after the late-morning blast.
That sounds more like a terrorist strike to me. I think Samuel Huntington is correct: this is a war of civilisations, the West against Islam. In that situation, Europe is in a far more worse position than America. Many more Arabs in the population, much closer proximity to the Middle East, much greater reliance on Middle Eastern oil. This would also explain why the dollar rallied sharply this morning against the European currencies. Safe havens of every kind are being reassessed. Gold might be the only thing to own right now. There is an emergency EU meeting tonight; I suspect that this is the subject. 8 suspects have been arrested today by French police after reports that they were about to attack American targets in the country this weekend. The Germans have been rounding up people as well and are on the look-out for more, since Hamburg has been a big staging ground for this kind of stuff. In the short-term this means a much stronger coalition between the Americans and the Europeans, but it implies a much more broadly based conflict than perhaps the markets had hitherto suspected. END
Comment: This could be very similar to the near news blackout when the Pentagon was hit, when we first heard it was only the grounds of the pentagon and then heard next to nothing for MANY hours. Stay tuned. Who can explain what is happening in {French} Guyana? Please support GATA and become a LeMetropole Cafe member, these guys are the real Patriot missles!
R Powell
(9/21/01; 19:59:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 62133)
auspec
Hey guy. Watching Louis is a tough job but you know someone has to keep an eye on those permabulls and elves!
How do we know that the bear is alive and well without spying on the enemy to make sure they're still upbeat. Louis was in fine form tonight. He didn't say as much but implied that the market was naughty and unpatriotic last week.
Now how many times have I told you investors to buy- not sell. Why I've even provided people to tell you which specific companies to buy!
******
Gold and especially Silver. Are we having fun yet?
I'll be glad to go on record as saying that I've been having a great time lately. But prudence tells me to offset an option or two soon. We have been fooled before, yes?
I've got all weekend to study and decide.
Happy weekend
Rich
BR549
(9/21/01; 19:57:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62132)
Anybody out there
that can keep a dry eye watching "America, A Tribute to heroes live tonight" being broadcast on TV tonight.
I can't.
BR549
Netking
(9/21/01; 19:45:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62131)
EU leaders back US retaliation
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1557000/1557099.stm
Snippet:
"European Union leaders have agreed to support US retaliation for the 11 September terrorist attacks. At an emergency summit the leaders said a targeted US "riposte" would be "legitimate".
In a joint statement they said each of the 15 nations would participate in such action "according to its means". Jack Straw says international support is growing. The declaration said the targets could include "states abetting, supporting or harbouring terrorists. . . . " {That's it then, Game, set & match! - Netking}
-----------------------------------------------------------
Sir Sierra Madre, this posted link wasn't you now Sir was it?
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2001q3/2001_09/1010921.121657.sierra_ma.htm
Trader_vic
(9/21/01; 19:35:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62130)
Gimli_ (9/21/01; 19:16:08MT - XAU Down and POG Up
As I see it, This is nothing more than some profit taking before the weekend... Remember, with the SM down so much this last week, you have funds that are dumping their winners to get enough money to cover their loosers! I guess you would say that Gold bailed them out again! Will they ever learn?
As far as the PM market is concerned, it looks really strong in here... you have silver breaking out of the downtrend with no news... you have people now reporting that silver is in short supply and that the shorts are covering without success... You have gold above $290 and advancing, along with Japan buying 3 tons over this last week... and the far east isn't done buying either... you have 39 tons of gold buried under the rubble of the World Trade Center... you have uncertainty in the world and markets selling off significantly... you have money going into our economy without any concern as to inflation... What you have is a really nice environment for a gold explosion...
Think about it for a while and ask yourself... can I afford to wait any longer to buy that extra gold... I don't think so... you might even be able to pay off your house mortgage with a few of those now...in the near future...
auspec
(9/21/01; 19:20:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62129)
Rich
How{e} can you bear to watch Louie Rookheister? I knew you were brave, but this is beyond my comprehension. Don't tell me you're one of the Elves, please.
Sympathetically,
au{not}spec{tator}
Gimli_
(9/21/01; 19:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 62128)
POG up, XAU down....
Yes, my mining shares have done very well this year--that is surely evident when one looks at the bigger picture.
However, with all the meltdown of all the other financial instruments going on around us, one would think that PMM shares would soar especially as the dollar falls and the POG goes up. Many mainstream economists are noticing and even some are recommending PMM shares. So what gives??
Usually the XAU going down is a more reliable indicator than the POG going up. So why would the big money and insiders not favor PMM shares? NEM down 6+% today! Doesn't make sense.... Smells bad?
R Powell
(9/21/01; 19:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 62127)
Gimli_
You wondered about "POG surges, yet mining shares drop significantly".
They look a lot better if you step back a little and expand the time frame. Investor's Business Daily lists (daily) different market sectors with year-to-date percentage changes. From today's paper, by sector
Bank -26.1%
Consumer -19.3%
Medical/Healthcare -18.5%
Defense -8.4%
Defensive -14.3%
Gold +36.9%
IBD lists Newmont Mining among the ten companies that comprise this gold sector.
IBD also lists 197 Industry Group Ranking groups. "Groups are ranked 1 through 197 on price performance of all stocks in the industry in the latest 6 months." No, not first, but the Metal Ores-Gold/Silver group is number 2 out of 197. It was number 9 last week and number 72 three months ago. Not too bad for an old barbaric relic.
Happy weekend to all!!
Rich
BR549
(9/21/01; 18:53:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 62126)
Stock buybacks/repurchases—Another way for corporate insiders to benefit or a way to prime the stock market by demonstrating that corporations are willing to put their money where their mouth is concerning their stocks?
The regulations for stock repurchases by corporations was relaxed after the closure of the market because of 911. The mentality was supposed to be that corporations could use their excess cash (what is that?) and instead of investing in capital goods, acquiring a new company or technology, paying existing stockholders dividends, etc. can buy back their stocks at bargain basement prices.
What a deal? Everybody wins, there are no losers or are there? The reason that nobody loses is that the existing stockholders now own a greater percentage of the company because the outstanding number of shares has been reduced and your peer share value has increased. That is, if earnings remain relatively constant, then EPS and ROA will increase because the number of shares outstanding has been decreased.
Let's say that you are a major shareholder in this corporation and you hold a stock that no one will buy your stock for the price that you feel that the stock is worth. As a major shareholder you are defined as insider and you must report either the buying or selling of stock to the SEC within a specific time period so you allegedly will not benefit from inside knowledge to the detriment of regular shareholders. Example-Your new widget does not meet consumer safety guidelines and you must recall all 10 kazillion of them for repair. You would therefore sell your shares before the market found out.
Alternatively. with a buyback, you as a board member can offer a premium to shareholders at (x) amount above the market price if they offer their shares for redemption, ex. market price is $15/share, your corporation offers $24/share as an incentive to existing stockholders (you as an insider being one). If you (insider) took your profits via a dividend rather than a stock repurchase then you would have to pay taxes at ordinary income rates rather than at capital gains rates. How convenient. You get a higher price per share in your back pocket and you now own a higher percentage of the company via a reduced number of shares outstanding.
So the whole idea for relaxing the regulations about stock repurchases temporarily was to "prop up" the sagging prices of stocks via corporations patriotically buying back their own shares. The first five days of this ingenious plan has resulted in the single largest decline in prices in the history of the U.S. (including the depression). The result is a new proposal for extending the relaxed rules about the practice of stock repurchases for a longer time period than the initial ten days.
Any thoughts KarenSue or others?
Regards,
BR549
Gimli_
(9/21/01; 18:30:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 62125)
POG up over $4, but PMM Indices Down, NEM down 6%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nem&d=t
I don't get it!! POG surges, yet mining shares drop significantly--indices down about 2% with NEM down over 6%.
How does this happen, and why?
Netking
(9/21/01; 18:04:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62124)
Dow's Worst Week Since the Great Depression
http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/09/21/markets/markets_newyork/
Stocks slide for a fifth day, and Dow sees worst week since 1933 . . . G R I M . . . but wait there's more!, sorry I mean less, October has market timing indications of the Dow(n) go'in further south, glad y'all got silver 'n gold huh!
R Powell
(9/21/01; 17:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62123)
Television financial presentation
I curious as to what Louis Rukeyser will have to say tonight. Wall Street Week on public television at 8:30 EST.
Do you suppose he'll mention the goldbugs in his opening comments as he has been in a condescendingly manner for o so many years?
Rich
Belgian
(9/21/01; 16:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 62122)
@ Slingshot
Sir, it is with the terror that exists in Israel, and the *never-ending*, mutual hatred, in my mind, that I do fear the worst. Let us leave the debate for a while and wait for the outcome of any possible actions taken. Like your sense of humor. :-)
Today, a friend of mine was able to have some 4 eyed talk with a financial analyst of importance...and Gold was brought forward. Result : Financial media have no interest in Gold for the following reasons : Gold trade doesn't bring any profits of size and is contraproductive for the sale of other financial products, due to the absorbtion of money that goes asleep and is not available anymore for the so called smart-products. Nothing new of course, but when stated explicitely... of some interest.
Goldmining consolidation (Gold Fields/WMC + others later) works against the present fragmentation and is further sign of contraction rather than expansion.
Osama bin laden in Chechnya or Northern India-Kasjmir (latest rumors). Complications !?
nickel62
(9/21/01; 16:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62121)
White Rose
This was a triple witching day which means that it is the day when the brokers have to pay up if their futures and options are not in the money. SO it is a day when it is particularly likley that markets will be moved by big money flows designed to keep the brokers or market makers from having to pay off on the various options, futures, etc. Since silver has been very strong lately it is likely that someone had been playing the move by buying calls and the sellers wanted to make sure they closed closer to were the silver stocks were when the options were written. On Option expiration days like today the markets are dramatically effected by the movements of various parties that happen to have a financial interest in the outcome.
Gandalf the White
(9/21/01; 16:02:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62120)
OOOPS --- There went another 2,150,000 PUTS !!!!!!!
2002-01-19 20.00 NEMAD 4.20 4.60 17600 360500 NEMMD 1.75 2.00 5340000 1892500
<.-(
Gandalf the White
(9/21/01; 15:58:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62119)
GEE !! I forgot the "g" in HEDGING !!!!
<;-(
auspec
(9/21/01; 15:56:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62118)
Coalition Cracks?
I just learned that Egypt has shown indications that it will NOT go against Iraq in any anti-terrorism activities. This idea of "you are either with us or with the enemy" is going to go up in smoke very soon. Egypt has to be considered more moderate than many other Islamic countries and this bodes poorly for for the 'dream team'. Back to the drawing board for Colon Powell and Small Intestine Rum-filled.
From the Pee-Nut gallery,
auspec{tator}
Gandalf the White
(9/21/01; 15:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62117)
LOOK at this ! ( I hope it lines up well.)
http://quotes.ino.com/options/stock/?s=NYSE_NEM
Sorted by
Expiration Strike CALL symbol bid ask vol openint ---PUT symbol bid ask vol openint
2002-01-19 20.00 NEMAD 5.20 5.30 17700 353900 ----NEMMD 1.45 1.50 3109500 178100
===========
IF it is not easy to read, SOMEONE BOUGHT over three million $20 Jan 2002 PUTS on NEM at about $1.50 each today !!
THIS IS MAJOR HEDING !!
ANYONE want to fess-up ?
<;-)
White Rose
(9/21/01; 15:22:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62116)
Last minute trades today in gold and silver
I have noticed that silver stocks got slammed in the last hour of trading, and gold stocks went up? What does this mean?
Does somebody know something is up this weekend? Or is there a simple explanation?
slingshot
(9/21/01; 15:12:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62115)
Belgian Msg# 62114
How much will vengeance cost and what will be the benfit?
Does not matter anymore. The country is on a war footing.
Remember the Alamo
Remember the Maine
Remember Pearl Harbor
REMEMBER NEW YORK
The Battle cry has changed, but the results will be the same!
Funny. It is easier to get people to go to war than to buy gold.
Slingshot
Belgian
(9/21/01; 14:51:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62114)
@ BR549
OK Sir, I do admit that my question is wrongly put and without enough context. I wanted to express my worries about retaliations on retaliation. And the unavoidable spiral of violence en suffering. How much will the vengeance cost and what will be the benefit ?
It is not because I'm invested in Gold, that the world has to become a divided angry globe. I would prefer to see it otherwise. Why isn't the US asking Saudi Arabia as a go between for the whole Arab/muslim community and bringing all terrorists before a world tribunal, for judgement and punishment ? When you start analysing this question...you will encounter, the extreme complex/complicated hart, of the matter.
Geopolitics...oil...economy...etc, affecting us all and the investors on this forum in particular. Can you agree a bit more now with the briefly explained context ?
The act of terror has much more dept than is visible at present. It is not kind of an isolated drama, but rather something terrible that will have prolonged implications.
Am afraid that if all rencent words, become reality...hell breaks loose. I suppose you aren't wishing this either.
POG runup in Europ from 290$ >>>295$, was immediately reversed at N.Y. opening >>>291,8$. GE fostering did the trick. Massive liquidity is mobilized to prevent defaults and keep the crippled TWINS erected (yes, good comparaison).
Econoclast
(9/21/01; 14:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62113)
BR549...
The goldminers?
Shoot, I'm preparing my request for "liquidity" from the FED. I'm cheap! 1 billion is all I require.
BR549
(9/21/01; 14:31:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62112)
GE Telethon
During CNBC's running telethon today for General Electric's stock holder meeting, it was stated that this week is the fifth worse five days of trading declines as a percentage since 1931. The sixth worse occurred in 1932. All of my life I have heard that it was impossible for the stock market to crash again like it did in the back then. According to an expert in institutional trading, the DOW fall was being caused by Insurance having to raise capital to pay claims, Pension funds need cash, mutual funds needing liquidity for redemptions. But the bottom has been reached and this is over? Come on back in suckers, there are some real bargains here.
One other point, in reference to the $10BB airlines welfare checks, how much of that is going to the Banksters to keep from foreclosing on the fleet I wonder. The insurance companies are next up in the welfare line. Money is gushing like "Old Faithful" When is it the poor gold miners turn?
BR549
BR549
(9/21/01; 13:51:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62111)
Belgian's Question :
"Is it possible to eradicate terrorism, completely ? Is this the only way to create a better and safer world ? Has the UK already solved the Irish (terror) problem to its full extend ?"
Another question for you:
"Is it possible to eradicate CRIME, completely ? Is this the only way to create a better and safer world ? Has the UK already solved the Irish (CRIME) problem to its full extend?"
The answer to both of those questions is obviously no.
Back in the 30's the US declared internal war on Al Capone and he was eliminated. In the 90's the FBI declared war on John Gotti and he was eliminated. In the 18th Century the US declared war on the Barbary Pirates. It took 15 years, and they were wiped out.
Let me state the question one more time my way:
"Is it possible to eradicate organized terrorism from bin Laden completely in the 60 countries in which he has set up terrorists cells? Once accomplished by the world alliance again terrorism, won't this make for a better and safer world? Hasn't the UK already begun to resolve the Irish organized (terror) problem as much as possible by the truce that was signed although there is much additional work to do?"
Just looking at it from a different angle.
BR549
auspec
(9/21/01; 13:32:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62110)
The American Bird is an EAGLE!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/droke092101pv.html
.
auspec
(9/21/01; 13:30:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62109)
Clif Droke on Silver
http://www.gold-eaglr.com/gold_digest_01droke092101pv.html
The market for select gold mining stocks remains vibrant heading into autumn, with certain junior mines poised for tremendous percentage gains. Meanwhile, the silver market remains favored over gold this fall in terms of upside percentage potential. Based on our cycle analysis silver is due to see a long-term cycle bottom in October.
In true seasonal fashion the gold and mining stock market leaped on high volume in response to the precipitous stock market decline of recent weeks, coupled with news-related trading in the wake of the World Trade Tower/Pentagon bombings. The upmove for gold futures, however, was purely temporary as gold's dominant cycle channels are pointing sideways for the next few weeks. However, the long-term cycles have all bottomed and gold should begin its sustained move to $320 (plus or minus) as we near the end of the year. Once gold clears $320 this year it will be the last time the yellow metal ever visits the sub-$300s as it will mark the beginning of the 2002-2006 gold boom. For the next four years ahead none of the major cycles are due to bottom below $300, and most will bottom at considerably higher levels. END
Comment: Clif never seems hesitant to step out in a limb. May this current prediction reap much fruit for all similarly invested!
Econoclast
(9/21/01; 13:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62108)
Buena Fe, that is exactly what I've been thinking
Whoever did it made it an event as dramatic as anything in the biggest disaster movie in an attempt to get through the numbness of the collective mind.
The symbolism I also believe is on purpose.
The WTC is symbolic of the Financial System. "They" had to incorporate engineers into the planning and figured out how to bring the WTC down. The massive fireworks of the direct hits was but the beginning. Then later, the towers imploded on themselves and collapsed due to the weakening structure caused by the unseen ramifications of the visible actions.
The symbolism to me is amazing and not coincidence.
ge
(9/21/01; 13:08:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62107)
Sean Corrigan on an undeclared near zero interest rate policy by FED
http://www.capitalinsight.co.uk/Home/Article.asp?ArticleFile=200901zirpcode.pdf
His theory : Foreigners want out.
(Note: The link does not work in Netscape)
site steward
(9/21/01; 13:01:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 62106)
Nice post, Buena Fe
An apt parallel, indeed.
Buena Fe
(9/21/01; 12:54:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62105)
dreams?
the feeling in my gut, that has been building over several days is starting to take a shape that I can begin to describe. (Remember these are feelings so they are HIGHLY subjective and may just represent the processing of change that we all are dealing with)
-we are watching an erie parrallel, within the US financial markets, to the act of terror in NY.
-the WTC's were hit apprx. 20min apart, they burned for all to see, nobody expected them to collapse. In fact I remember hearing that the towers were built to withstand the impact of such aircraft. Rescue efforts began ......fireman......raced up to save lives, extinguish the flames and save the towers.
-within the towers, unseen is a HOT fire, from the aircraft fuel that melts the support and to everyones Horror the towers collapse.
Parrallel
-the US financial system takes a hit, the $ and T-bonds are the WTC's, they are damaged but rescue efforts get underway, they are designed to take this kind of hit, but unseen is the derivative fuel that is burning/weaking the structure, to everyone's DISBELIEF and horror the $/bond towers collapse......... no one is willing to part with their physical gold for 400 ... 600 ...... 1000 ....+++ dollars, the world is forever a different place.
does anybody else feel this way?
site steward
(9/21/01; 12:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62104)
Fed adds $1 billion via weekend repos at 2.25% stop out
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010921/nat000281_1.html
If you've already read the first Site Steward post of the day, you'll be fully prepared to read and understand this Reuters article.
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(9/21/01; 12:11:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62103)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
Gold Today!Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.In this global marketplace, an event on the far side of the world (even while you sleep or play) can adversely affect the performance-credibility of your commercial positions and financial portfolio.
Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its reliable "form and function" -- a steadfast financial commodity immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.
AEL
(9/21/01; 11:53:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62102)
Noam Chomsky Interview
http://monkeyfist.com:8080/ChomskyArchive/interviews/attack_html
short excerpt:
Terrorist Attacks on America
September 2001
Source: ZNet
Noam Chomsky interviewed by Radio B92, Belgrade
.....
.....
Bin Laden is...bitterly opposed to the corrupt and repressive
regimes of the region, which he regards as "un-Islamic," including
the Saudi Arabian regime, the most extreme Islamic fundamentalist
regime in the world, apart from the Taliban, and a close US ally
since its origins. Bin Laden despises the US for its support of
these regimes. Like others in the region, he is also outraged by
long-standing US support for Israel's brutal military occupation,
now in its 35th year: Washington's decisive diplomatic, military,
and economic intervention in support of the killings, the harsh
and destructive siege over many years, the daily humiliation to
which Palestinians are subjected, the expanding settlements
designed to break the occupied territories into Bantustan-like
cantons and take control of the resources, the gross violation of
the Geneva Conventions, and other actions that are recognized as
crimes throughout most of the world, apart from the US, which has
prime responsibility for them. And like others, he contrasts
Washington's dedicated support for these crimes with the
decade-long US-British assault against the civilian population of
Iraq, which has devastated the society and caused hundreds of
thousands of deaths while strengthening Saddam Hussein -- who was
a favored friend and ally of the US and Britain right through his
worst atrocities, including the gassing of the Kurds, as people of
the region also remember well, even if Westerners prefer to forget
the facts. These sentiments are very widely shared. The _Wall
Street Journal_ (Sept. 14) published a survey of opinions of
wealthy and privileged Muslims in the Gulf region (bankers,
professionals, businessmen with close links to the U.S.). They
expressed much the same views: resentment of the U.S. policies of
supporting Israeli crimes and blocking the international consensus
on a diplomatic settlement for many years while devastating Iraqi
civilian society, supporting harsh and repressive anti-democratic
regimes throughout the region, and imposing barriers against
economic development by "propping up oppressive regimes." Among
the great majority of people suffering deep poverty and
oppression, similar sentiments are far more bitter, and are the
source of the fury and despair that has led to suicide bombings,
as commonly understood by those who are interested in the facts.
The U.S., and much of the West, prefers a more comforting story.
To quote the lead analysis in the _New York Times_ (Sept. 16), the
perpetrators acted out of "hatred for the values cherished in the
West as freedom, tolerance, prosperity, religious pluralism and
universal suffrage." U.S. actions are irrelevant, and therefore
need not even be mentioned (Serge Schmemann). This is a convenient
picture, and the general stance is not unfamiliar in intellectual
history; in fact, it is close to the norm. It happens to be
completely at variance with everything we know, but has all the
merits of self-adulation and uncritical support for power.
.....
.....
Every sane person should be afraid of the likely reaction -- the
one that has already been announced, the one that probably answers
Bin Laden's prayers. It is highly likely to escalate the cycle of
violence, in the familiar way, but in this case on a far greater
scale.
The U.S. has already demanded that Pakistan terminate the food and
other supplies that are keeping at least some of the starving and
suffering people of Afghanistan alive. If that demand is
implemented, unknown numbers of people who have not the remotest
connection to terrorism will die, possibly millions. Let me
repeat: the U.S. has demanded that Pakistan kill possibly millions
of people who are themselves victims of the Taliban. This has
nothing to do even with revenge. It is at a far lower moral level
even than that. The significance is heightened by the fact that
this is mentioned in passing, with no comment, and probably will
hardly be noticed. We can learn a great deal about the moral level
of the reigning intellectual culture of the West by observing the
reaction to this demand. I think we can be reasonably confident
that if the American population had the slightest idea of what is
being done in their name, they would be utterly appalled. [Yes, a
few would; hard to say. If they can be convinced that this action
is necessary to preserve "our way of life" (SUVs, McMansions,
etc.) -- as they overwhelmingly already have -- then who knows how
many? -- AEL] It would be instructive to seek historical
precedents.
If Pakistan does not agree to this and other U.S. demands, it may
come under direct attack as well -- with unknown consequences. If
Pakistan does submit to U.S. demands, it is not impossible that
the government will be overthrown by forces much like the Taliban
-- who in this case will have nuclear weapons. That could have an
effect throughout the region, including the oil producing states.
At this point we are considering the possibility of a war that may
destroy much of human society.
.....
.....
dragonfly
(9/21/01; 11:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62101)
Oops
http://www.tompaine.com/opinion/2001/09/16/index.html
Here's the correct link.
dragonfly
(9/21/01; 11:45:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 62100)
Cavan Man
http://www.tompaine.com/opinion/2001/09/20/index.html
Sir Cavan Man - sorry I didn't get back to you the other day on the link to the article by Tamim Ansary. My wife said lots of her friends were talking about it two days ago after hearing it on TV. Sometimes I wonder if the Internet is driving things in unexpected ways. Best to you and yours.
miner49er
(9/21/01; 11:44:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 62099)
safe ^SAX...?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^SAX&d=t
i know this doesn't mean a whole bunch, but while doing a glance at a summary of world indices, i noticed outstanding amidst a sea of red was, lo and behold, a positive slovakia...
i clicked the chart expecting to see nothing but a minor aberration, and see they've been on a roll here cross-current to the nearly the whole planet for several months...
just thought that was interesting... (anyone know anything about them?)
site steward
(9/21/01; 11:41:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 62098)
annie and SDRs
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_SDR.html
With some other pressing items to attend to, it may be another day before I get a chance to give full attention to the post you addressed to me yesterday.
In the meanwhile, you can find some of my overview of the SDR matter at the URL given above. Simply click, then scroll down to the two site steward posts, beginning with a post called "Highgrading the data".
I hope this helps for the present time, and again, I'll try to address your specifics as soon as time allows.
Randy
auspec
(9/21/01; 11:38:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62097)
Cavan Man
Yes, of course you're right about the small wolf's name. I do, however, know for sure that the bird was frequently carrying around a large box of ACME GOLD.
Speaking of birds, what should we send the PE for Christmas??
Your for Constitutional Government,
auspec{toon}
uponroof
(9/21/01; 11:11:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62096)
Smartmoney.com on GOLD
http://www.smartmoney.com/tradecraft/index.cfm?story=20010920
"...AT A TIME when nothing seems certain, there are a few things you can count on that never change. From spending time with friends to seeing a good movie, some pleasures just don't go out of style..."
Henri
(9/21/01; 08:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62095)
Belgian msg#: 62068
Belgian's Question :
"Is it possible to eradicate terrorism, completely ? Is this the only way to create a better and safer world ? Has the UK already solved the Irish (terror) problem to its full extend ?"
The simple answer is no.
The annihilation of terrorists will leave wide open the definition of what a terrorist is. Once the eradication of the obvious miscreants is complete, attention will focus on those who oppose such violence an then on those who maintain the capability to execute violence by the meer ownership of weaponry. Total global disarmament of guns will not stop it either. Extinction of a perceived enemy can just as easily be pursued with Machetes as with guns as we have seen in Africa over the last 2 years.
It is however the answer now embraced by a coalition of powerful governments. Will they know when to stop? I doubt it.
Higher Oil prices would advance the search for additional oil but this does not solve the "energy" problem long term.
As long as we are focused on oil for our energy needs the world will become increasingly hostile as the supply runs dry.
On a bright Note. On July 2, a significant breakthrough was achieved in fusion energy research at General Atomics in San Diego, CA. The researchers at the DIII-D National Fusion Facility have eextended the pressure limits of a fusion plasma by a factor of almost two which basically means the magnetic containment can contain higher power levels of the reactive fuel mix.
This pressure limit barrier was previously considered to be one of the obstacles to development of commercial fusion power facilities. The advance was made by spinning the fuel within its containment device at speeds in the 10-100 miles/sec range. The spinning imparts additional stability to the plasma which would previously "arc out" to the containment wall even from tiny imperfections of the magnetic containment wall. May God guide the efforts of this promising avenue of research. While there aer still many hurtles ahead. Real progress is being made on this front. The fuel is water.
Gandalf the White
(9/21/01; 08:43:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 62094)
FANTASTIC JOB PPT !!!
But what are you going to use all that PAPER for in the future? Think that you can push the DOW to 8,500 again?
OH -- can you say MANIPULATION?
<;-(
R Powell
(09/21/01; 08:30:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62093)
Uponroof/ Annie/ Mr. Gresham
Thanks for the market (finex) information posted yesterday. I bought two dollar puts this morning in Dublin! Amazing global world isn't it.
Curbs are in on the Dow, gold and silver are up and Tom Costello just stated that mutual fund redemptions are for real. Something like, "Clearly people have been cashing out over the last few days." Redemptions could beget margin calls. Just heard more talk of margin calls from the current guest analyst on CNBC! Two weeks ago they were all biting their tongues whenever words like margin, redemption or capitulation came to mind.
Annie and Mr. Gresham have been analysing James Turk's theory of SDRs drawn against whatever gold storage the government still has. Good work, guys! I believe Turk's figure of the percentage of gold already encumbered with SDRs is high enough so that there is simply not enough left to support the dollar now that it's really hit the fan. Unless, of course, someone changes the POG. I'm thinking that U.S. stock markets will decline more (percentage wise) from this time forward than foreign markets in the near future. If the dollar index reflects the relative strength of our fiat against other fiats, then it would seem logical that the dollar index falls. Does this make any sense?
When the dollar weakens many so-called dollar denominated safe havens disappear. Stocks, bonds and soon real estate all heading down, precious metals should see paniced buyers soon.
Simply Grandma-- Congratulations!!
Rich
Henri
(9/21/01; 08:14:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 62092)
Simply Me
Congratulations Granny! You have brightened my day by describing your gift and intentions to tell stories of golden fantasy to the new arrival. May God bless her and all who are born these days that we may educate them of the folly of owning things that burn. Perhaps they will have the same opportunity to learn from history now being played out...but then again, this generation had that opportunity and chose to ignore it in greed. The lure of something for nothing is great indeed. Yet those that fall for it are always suprised when their something turns to nothing.
Perhaps there should be a fairy tale written that teaches that lesson at a very subliminal level.
site steward
(9/21/01; 08:10:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 62091)
U.S. gold in international trade for July 2001
Once again, here's my regular distillation the latest monthly trade report, focusing on its particular relevance for those of you who frequent this gold forum.
The Wednesday September 19th release of July trade data from the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed that our overall imports of goods and services declined for the fourth straight month (down $2.4 billion to $112.6 billion), reflecting our nation's continuing economic slowdown. And because our exports fell by a smaller amount ($2.2 billion), our overall trade deficit declined by $0.2 billion from June levels, yielding a balance of payments to our international trading partners for July that tips the scales at $28.8 billion.
During this time, our national level of imported gold weighed in at $158 million, representing approximately 18 tonnes. Meanwhile, foreigners called for the United States to export $251 million (29 tonnes) of gold in July, resulting in a net outflow of approximately 11 tonnes.
For perspective, were our $28.8 billion balance of payments for the July trade deficit to be settled using gold instead of U.S. currency, nearly 3,350 additional tonnes exported would have been required to settle this single month's account at then prevailing market prices.
Year-to-date, our cumulative net outflow of gold for year 2001 has climbed to approximately 318 tonnes, out pacing last year's level of 202 tonnes exported through July.
We are currently on pace to lose over 545 tonnes of gold for the full year. Relatively, this is a lot of gold. Our annual domestic production is only 350 tonnes. Will you part with your own gold to help fill this 200 tonne gap in supply? Or, will you join our trading partners in making a claim upon this unprintable precious asset, priced attractively amid a growing flood of dollars?
I suggest you call Centennial, especially now that the dollar's international exchange rate appears to have generally peaked in early July. For how much longer will our trading partners maintain confidence in the quality of our dollars? Can your form of savings withstand such a change in sentiment about U.S. paper?
Randy
uponroof
(9/21/01; 07:41:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62090)
The herd is moving out
Dow down 300, 10 minutes into the day.
Mutuals, 401 and IRA redemptions starting to kick in? I guess some things never change. The little guy is always last to exit.
As bad as it is right now, and this looks like the epitome of a Friday selloff (perhaps even crash), it could be a catalyst to run up gold. Here is where the cartel must restrain POG at all costs and avoid the ultimate irony.
As the backbone of the stock market, the 'in it for the long term-little crappers' finally give up, will gold be calling them to the hot new sector? If POG can move above 300 today there will be a very strong call to those stung.
Pulling out of their positions just in time to pile into the hot precious metals sector, the starving herd will trample those who raised them through abusing gold.
Once the herd frees POG, those somewhat wiser insiders, previously leary of gold and gummint intervention (avoiding it with a 10 foot pole) will then jump in adding bigtime power to the move.
Will the dollar fed herd break the cartel's grasp, encouraging deep pocketed sideline sitters that the 'coast is clear'? As good as this sounds I can't help but believe the gummint will put a halt to gold trading in some way. We are essentially under Marshall Law, and that includes the economy. Hope I'm wrong.
Zenidea
(9/21/01; 07:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 62089)
seat belts on
Is it a wipe out ?
Cavan Man
(9/21/01; 07:39:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 62088)
auspec
Since you also are my friend, I must point out that, it is not "Wiley Coyote" as you suggest. I believe the character's name is " Wile E. Coyote". If I am wrong, I stand corrected. BTW, I had a Woody the Woodpecker doll when I was a young lad. One day, I pitched him out of my stroller; alas, never to be seen again. They're still telling that one around the Cavan Man fireplace. Have a teriffic day if you dare.......CM
auspec
(9/21/01; 07:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 62087)
Sir Belgian
I hate to be the one to have to correct you, Sir, but there was a grievous and glaring error in your last post, that if not corrected, could greatly disturb the economic understanding and cerebral balance of MOST of those who frequent these halls. You are my friend, but friends are often called to 'intervention' in times such as this, so duty calls. Please have a seat & bear this as well as you are able, I will try to be gentle:
It was NOT Woody Woodpecker that Trail Guide referred to, he does not suspend himself running in mid air as does the real personna of THE ROADRUNNER! Big difference!!! {In fact it may have actually been Wiley Coyote that is most representative of this suspension and subsequent fall?}.
Just in case you are tempted to express your ideas again in American cartoon figures, it is Mr. Magoo at the helm of our Fed, NOT Buggs or Goofy or Yosemite Sam {A true gold advocate}.
Thank you Friend for your certain repentance,
auspec{toon}
P.S. Keep up the great work, it is most appreciated.
Zenidea
(9/21/01; 06:54:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62086)
Interesting friday night in Aussie ?.
Might stay up with a cuppa and watch this one.
Max Rabbitz
(9/21/01; 06:52:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62085)
Islamic Terrorism
http://www.answering-islam.org/Silas/terrorism.htm
It is important to read this. It is fair to ask these questions. Bigotry comes from ignorance and not from pointing out problems. Read it and understand who they are that want your destruction.
Part of the introduction as follows:
"Apart from many peaceful Muslims who are themselves unaware of the material presented below, there are also educated, moderate Muslims who do not agree with such terrorist acts and interpret these passages of the Qur'an and these precedents in the life of Muhammad differently. They would not interpret them as justifying atrocities as committed by Islamic terrorist groups. The problem is that those Muslims who oppose the radicals are themselves in danger and fear of becoming the target of the radicals in Islam. Ignoring the "violent passages" in the Qur'an and Muslim traditions will
not be the solution. The Islamic community has to confront the terrorists in their midst in word and deed, by bringing them to justice and by opposing their interpretation of Islam, if they believe it is not the true interpretation. We call for all Muslims to unmistakenly distance themselves from terrorist acts AND by giving the real meaning of these
passages and precedents presented below, to confront and excommunicate those who hold this violent Islam to be the only true Islam. As long as the Muslim community does NOT confront and stop them, they cannot complain that "the non-Muslims are misrepresenting Islam" and are biased and islamophobic. The below article draws the strongest possible conclusions from the sources, but it deals with the historical sources. Muslims who disagree with the conclusions, need to enter a discussion on those sources that are the foundations of Islam. We are willing to engage in this discussion and link from here to Muslim responses."
Black Blade
(9/21/01; 06:21:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62084)
Mutual Fund Redemptions
Looks to get even worse. I am looking for more info but I must go help the poor Californians keep their lights on. I heard a report that mutual funds have seen massive redemptions and are preparing for many more. There are reports that there are even redemptions of 401K and IRA monies as the penalties are meaningless in this environment as losses will offset. Bizarre report, but if anyone can locate more info on this let us know. TIA.
"GRIM" and "Interesting" day ahead.
- Black Blade
Grubstaker
(09/21/01; 06:09:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 62083)
God help us all...
I see no joy or elation in the current situation. The financial stability of the world is now unwinding. Although I am one of the few who will "benefit" from my long-standing ownership of physical gold in substancial quantity, my prayers have always been to not see this day EVER!! Yet it seems to be here and I take no pleasure whatsoever watching this happen. There are no real winners in such a scenario.
Black Blade
(9/21/01; 06:03:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 62082)
Wall Street Prepares for a Grim Opening
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010921/business_markets_stocks_dc_2.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is girding for a grim opening on Friday as frightened investors prepare to dump stocks for the fifth straight day after President Bush warned of a lengthy war on terrorism following last week's attacks that left thousands dead or missing. ``The futures are being devastated,'' said Larry Wachtel, a market analyst at Prudential Securities, as equity futures suggested drops of more than 3 percent at the opening bell after Bush's nationally televised speech Thursday night. ``There is the threat of war and it could come over the weekend. This kind of war is hard to pinpoint. You are fighting an elusive army.''
Black Blade: "GRIM" So where's the "Patriotic Rally?" Common sense says "Cut and run." Investments other than Gold and Silver? Hmmm… Who makes the military's MRE's? An army must travel on its stomach and this will be one hell of a long term Guerilla War. The history of war in Afghanistan heavily favors the Afghani's. This could last years (especially how the US conducts such wars). Better grab a fist full of PMs if you can.
Black Blade
(9/21/01; 05:51:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 62081)
Futures Down Sharply
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Market futures are down. The DOW could drop 300 points at the open. A drop below 8000 will shake consumer confidence for sure. The NASDAQ does not look much better. These indices are still grossly overvalued by even the most liberal standards. The fundamentals simply do not justify these current levels. Looks very "GRIM" If you don't have your "Golden Lifeboat" by now - you have my simpathy.
Black Blade
(9/21/01; 05:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 62080)
WORLD MARKETS GET CREAMED!
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Looks like today is the day that Gold and Silver break loose. The US Markets are poised to slip into oblivion as I have stated for the last few months. Unfortunately George Dubya may have seen the highlight of his career last night. He may yet go down as the Herbert Hoover of our generation as the American people see their life savings and investment portfolios evaporate. The flight to safety has been under way for a couple of weeks now and the physical vs. paper dissociation to break loose shortly. If the US Market gets slaughtered today as I expect then perhaps Gold and Silver will begin to move past $300.00/oz. and then beyond. Today may very well prove to be "GRIM. We really do live in "Interesting Times."
Hang on for the ride!
- Black Blade
CoBra(too)
(9/21/01; 04:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62079)
Breaking News
The London Stock Exchange evacuated ... cb2
silvercollector
(9/21/01; 04:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 62078)
(No Subject)
http://www.kitco.com/cgi-bin/yearly_graphs.cgi
Gold spiked from approximately $360 to $420 during Jan. 1990
Canuck
(9/21/01; 04:14:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62077)
My interest
One of the recent events that interests me a great deal is the run-up to 298.50 over the May 24 week-end. Given that the recent event has brought a high in the neighbourhood of 292/293 it brings out the question what was 'more' critical during the May crisis than that of now??
silvercollector
(9/21/01; 04:10:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62076)
Mr. Gresham, annie
"I know we think we know what the conclusion is, and we have it strongly shown from so many other directions, that it's not just pure laziness (is it?) to avoid really getting through Turk's detective work. But since it IS the US gold stash that either is or is not being pawned off to support the $, it's pretty darned important."
I for one did not sift through Turk's numbers. There is no way for a person like me to accurately interpret the true meaning. Instead, I watched the gold market for reaction and there was none. I am gauging its reaction to reflect the accuracy of Turks work. Does this seem logical?
Good luck annie!!
Spartacus
(9/21/01; 04:05:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 62075)
(No Subject)
Something is going down
Rate Last Ystd Close % Chng
USDCHF 1.5729 1.6484 -4.58%
Netking
(9/21/01; 03:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62074)
Markets / Sierra M.
You get a real impression looking at the markets something big's about to break reeeeal soon.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Sir Sierra, I've followed up the story you posted all over the Net about the 4,000 Israelis being away from work the day of 9-11 & I'm pleased to say I haven't found a bit of proof buddy, the best answer is from the link below.
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2001q3/2001_09/1010921.020413.lilbettee.htm
regards Netking
Spartacus
(9/21/01; 03:28:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 62073)
@Randy
Additional discussion of the meaning of the low interest rates at which fed funds are being traded in the open market among financial institutions.
Capital insight suggests that foreigners wants out.
…..He´s (Greenspan) going to print a new dollar to pay for every security that anybody wants to sell back to the States…..
www.capitalinsight.co.uk/Home/Article.asp?ArticleFile=zipcode.pdf
Netking
(9/21/01; 03:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62072)
Simply Me / Ag
Congratulations to you & the family! . . . golden news indeed for a golden granny!
------------------------------------------------------------
Siver heading north again, in Europe this time, looks good for New York trading a little later this morning yar? but we shall see.
Belgian
(9/21/01; 03:21:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62071)
@ Site Master
D.Luskin - ...Banks are swimming with excess liquidity....Hyperinflation...Failure of A.G.
A student's reflextion : * Easy Money * "Around the Globe",
for already quite some time now. Sooo much unproductive paper fiat with economic saturation, has become worthless, and is to be distributed at zero rent. Randy, you know my primitive-student, song about this fundamental. What has A.G. to do with it ? What is new in Luskin's approach ?
W're all stucked and trapped into that paper labyrinth.
Far from being perfect...but the Kondratieff observations are not that idiotic. Economy is 20% inspiration and 80% trust and confidence. It is a cyclic human event !
Sorry for repeating that same boring mantra...but these same words are getting different meanings as the whole show is evolving. The only possible mistake on the probability of the *end* phase taking place "now", is that the managers succeed into another round of same old mis-management.
But it all seems so desperate, at present.
The degradation of fiat will take place at the edge of the vulcano crater. The speed at wich that old established trust and confidence, will implode, will be as fast as light. How many times can you revise and restart the same aging engine of economic cycling ? Remember TG's Woody Woodpecker's image.
Footsie 100 plunging 5% (five %) in a matter of hours !
Destruction of the big illusion. With still many optimists making rumblings in the jungle.
Sincerely hoping that I'm radically wrong !
Simply Me
(9/21/01; 03:08:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 62070)
One More Golden Child in the World
Georgia Marie was born the morning of 9/18 weighing in at 7 lb. 9 oz. and within 1 hour she had gained 2 ounces...an ounce of gold and an ounce of silver (my first gifts to her). My grandaughter has arrived! One more little bundle of hope in the world who will grow up with a crazy grandma telling her bedtime stories about golden heroes, golden princesses and golden wealth. We'll sit and look at the pretty gold coin as I explain what it is and what it's for...and someday she will understand.
Would have announced it sooner, but I was a little preoccupied <proud smile>.
Simply Granny
The CoinGuy
(9/21/01; 02:28:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62069)
Spot & Europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u
Hello All,
Couldn't sleep so I thought I would check out the overseas action, and boy is blood running in the streets tonight. Spot is up over 3.00...
The Coin Guy
Belgian
(9/21/01; 01:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62068)
A "covert" war against terrorism ?
"with us or against us"...a very determined show of supremacy ! What is the main implication of letting the CIA, eradicate, all terrorist-cells, in mostly arab countries ?
Saddam invaded Kuwait, because he wanted 21$/barril and Kuwait, as a swingproducer, and fully americanized, was an ideal target to obtain that 21$. Thus, first there was the POO and secundary came religous jihad. In this decade from 1990, POO went from 21$ to 25$/28$ = + 25% on average over 10 years. Does this corresponds with the purchasing power of that same dollar from a M.E. point of vieuw ? I don't think so. Again, the answer (of long duration) on the terror-war, will be responsible for (much) higher crude prices, as the only possible defense towards war instead of justice and punishment.
Question : Is it possible to eradicate terrorism, completely ? Is this the only way to create a better and safer world ? Has the UK already solved the Irish (terror) problem to its full extend ?
If the POO is at the fundamental basis of all suffering and mutual humuliation...why can't we make a deal on the POO, and pay that price for peace and stability ? With a substantial higher POO, much more global exploration could be organised and come on stream to guarantee further economic expansion with more balance.
Is this positive approach too simplistic ? And why doesn't it make a chance to be workable ?
site steward
(9/21/01; 01:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62067)
Received a "cyber reaming" via e-mail
http://biz.yahoo.com/smart/010919/20010919aheaofthecurv.html
Three posters at the forum yesterday (Wednesday, 19th) called attention to commentary by investment manager Donald Luskin (see link above), and at least one anonymous website visitor took umbrage with my input on the matter -- input that was intended to draw out additional discussion of this topic, but sadly, there were no takers. Here again are the brief words I offered in response to Mr. Luskin's commentary:
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Great commentary in general, but he has a serious flaw in his interpretations -- particularly stemming from this comment:
"...the NY Fed's open market desk is in the market every day with its big, swinging billions -- doing what? Why? Consider: in the wake of the horrors of last Tuesday, the market is so hungry for the safety of dollar deposits that it will accept any interest rate no matter how low -- even zero! -- in order to get them."
Anyone here who hasn't been thoroughly put to sleep by my posts over the months and years knows the real score. By keeping just HALF an eye open to the USAGOLD forum would allow anyone to correct Mr. Luskin on this account. The actual case is FAR more disconcerting than his [Mr. Luskin's] misinterpretation allows.
Preserve your wealth with an ample diversification into gold metal. You need it now more than ever.
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My comeuppance via e-mail was based on the writer's notion that nobody reads my comments with any day to day comprehension. He said when he visits our site he expects to be given the COMPLETE picture regarding whatever elements of news are relevant to the day.
Well, I'm sorry to say that that level of spoonfeeding each day would not only become redundantly tiresome to most of our very bright visitors, but it would also require a level of resources for the tremendous daily effort of typing and dictation here in "The Tower" which I am not prepared to commit. I am willing, however, to attempt to make greater use of the "Golden Chalkboard" in the presentation of fundamental building blocks that can be anticipated as having a need to stand apart for future reference or elaboration as warranted by the economic news or focus of the day.
But for now, I'll provide the elaboration that was being angrily sought regarding my indication of disagreement with Mr. Luskin's interpretation of the meaning behind the low interest rates in the fed funds market. (At this point, I'll assume everyone has made themselves familiar with his commentary.)
Again, he errs where he builds his conclusions upon his wrongful interpretation of the meaning of the low interest rates at which fed funds are being traded in the open market among financial institutions. This fed funds market is generally non collateralized short-term (overnight) lending/borrowing among depository institutions to either earn a return (through lending) upon excess funds, or else to acquire necessary funds (through borrowing) to satisfy reserve requirements. The open market rate balancing these lending and borrowing desires is known as the federal funds rate (or fed funds rate).
When excess funds are dear, the fed funds rate climbs as many borrowers compete for the available money. When funds are ample, the fed funds rate falls as most institutions are entering the market as willing lenders simply to earn any manner of overnight interest.
(It is through the Federal Reserve System's daily open market operations that it acts to nudge the market fed funds rate toward the FOMC target rate. If funds are in short supply as indicated by a high fed funds rate, the Fed will accept collateralized bids from among the market participants, providing additional funds (inject reserves) through repurchase agreements above a self determined stop out rate -- thus nudging the market rate toward the Fed's desired target for the day.)
Now look again at the Luskin comment that I highlighted. It is patently the opposite interpretation of the truth of the matter.
In fact, the banks are swimming with excess liquidity. And what's more disconcerting in all this is that we see the Fed is actually utilizing this bizarre opportunity to pump ever more funds into the banking system -- even though they must accept sub-target stop out rates on bids to do it. After all, what bank is going to make a bid on funds from the Fed at a rate of 3% (the current FOMC target) when they can get some of the ample reserves being offered more cheaply by their fellow institutions on the open market?
Yesterday, for example, not only did the Fed accept all bids for funds via overnight repurchase agreements ($27.6 billion at 0.75 percent stop out rate), but it also provided longer term funds through 14-day, 21-day, and 28-day repos totaling $22.75 billion at stop out rates between 2 and 2.3 percent...well below the current target suggested by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. And today the Fed provided another $7 billion at 1.7 percent s.o. via overnight repos.
Clearly, even though the market's fed funds rate is signaling that the banks have ample reserves, the Fed obviously wants them to have more. In light of this behavior, I am inclined to think that the Fed did nothing off market to sterilize any funds that were created through activation of the $90 billion in special swap facilities arranged this past week with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada.
This is the stuff that hyperinflations are made of. Experience tells that the Fed would not be taking this inflationary action unless something much more dire were looming in the shadows. It seems to me there is more going on here than the flooding of a machine with oil to ensure that the one little part that might be lacking gets its vital lubricant.
To my e-mailer, please use this public elaboration to now think for yourself. Whichever effect comes to rule the day, will you have the gold necessary to protect yourself from EITHER the hidden crisis OR the Fed's cure? Call Centennial. They can help.
Best advice for the COMPLETE picture? "Get you some."
regards,
Randy
PS. annie, I've some work to do. I'll have a throrough look at your SDR post and respond as soon as able.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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