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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/21/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Netking (11/21/01; 23:53:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 65721)
Galearis
Galearis(65710)Re: "@Netking: What hear ye about an Indian government sale involving 80 million oz. of silver bullion??????"

Netking > Pardon the pun G. but "I'm digging" around on this story mate . . .

auspec (11/21/01; 21:52:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 65720)
Cavan Man
FREEDOM!!!!!!! Where is this William Wallace when we need him the most?

tg (11/21/01; 21:28:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65719)
uponroof
I enjoyed your link and i see the irony.
Nice to have a few lighter posts



Pizz (11/21/01; 21:25:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65718)
Mainline Media
We all know the media just isn't going to start promoting PM until all PM's have risen to the point that they're due for a correction - the general public isn't allowed in at the bottom.

Today I ran a little test at my office just to see what might happen if we could only get a little national media push.

I went next door to my local mint and picked up a few silver rounds to give to my staff for an impromptu Thanksgiving gift. I gave each one the option of the silver or a good old created in the USA five dollar bill. I told them the spot on silver was 4.05.

Every one of them took the silver. Fellow PM bugs, WE ARE VERY, VERY, CLOSE!!



darkhorse (11/21/01; 21:08:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 65717)
excuse me...
Grow up? Talk about the kettle callin' the pot "blacky"....

uponroof (11/21/01; 21:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 65716)
CNBC marketunwrapped
Waverider/darkhorse...

Please do not leave, or get upset on account of the 'marketunwrapped' post. It was intended as a jab at CNBC. Nothing more, nothing less. There is NO nudity at that site as posted......unless you've paid their fee.

Pornography? C'mon, I don't think so.

CNBC, broadcast around the world with shameless market bias, designed to milk lifelong savings, is far more offensive. Grow up.

My apologies in any event.



auspec (11/21/01; 21:02:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65715)
Midas
"Speaking of undoing. How about that Enron! It closed at 5 today, down 45% in two days. A year ago Enron was one of the top ten companies in the U.S. It was one of the leading contributors to the Bush campaign and the darling of Wall Street - just like LTCM used to be."

"Lucky it closed at 5. If it closed below, it would become unmarginable at many firms and that would beget even more selling."

"A year ago they were known as derivative trading gurus. Now that they are about to go out of business, no one is saying a word about it. What kind of derivative nightmares are they sitting on? Love this one. J.P. Morgan Chase, which has 20 trillion in derivatives on its own books, is Enron's first line banker."

"Could the collapse in the bond market have anything to do with Enron? No one is talking, which makes it possible. Today's latest FROM Enron:"

"HOUSTON, Nov. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Enron Corp. (NYSE: ENE - news) announced today that it has closed on the remaining $450 million of a previously announced $1 billion in secured credit lines from JP Morgan, the investment-banking arm of JP Morgan Chase & Co., and Salomon Smith Barney, the investment-banking arm of Citigroup Inc. The $450 million credit facility is secured by the assets of Enron's Northern Natural Gas Company. A $550 million credit facility, secured by the assets of Enron's Transwestern Pipeline Company, closed on Nov. 16. Proceeds are being used to supplement short-term liquidity and to refinance maturing obligations…"

"Enron also announced that it is in active discussions with its primary lenders on a restructuring of its debt obligations to further enhance liquidity. ``We have been in continuous contact with our banks and believe we can identify a mutually beneficial restructuring to enhance our cash position, strengthen our balance sheet and address upcoming maturities,'' said Jeffrey McMahon, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Enron. ``For example, we have been informed by the lead bank on the facility that the maturity on our $690 million note payable obligation, disclosed on Nov. 19 in a Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, will be extended to mid-December, providing the time necessary to restructure the facility. We expect that extension to be formalized shortly.''"

"``We believe the interests of Chase and Enron's other primary lenders are aligned in this restructuring effort,'' said James B. Lee, vice chairman of JP Morgan Chase & Co. ``We will work with Enron and its other primary lenders to develop a plan to strengthen Enron's financial position up to and through its merger with Dynegy.''"

"Enron is one of the world's leading energy, commodities and services companies. The company markets electricity and natural gas, delivers energy and other physical commodities, and provides financial and risk management services to customers around the world."

-END-

Comment: GATA support is always in season!

darkhorse (11/21/01; 20:54:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65714)
what a moron...
Uponroof, if that site was an intentional post and not some sort of serious slip, you've got to be the biggest moron I've had the opportunity to run into all month! What a total lack of judgment!

Waverider (11/21/01; 20:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 65713)
Signing out
I'm off this forum - patronizing attitudes are unpleasant but can be excused, porn sites can't.
Waverider

uponroof (11/21/01; 20:23:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 65712)
CNBC is now obsolete
http://www.marketwrapunwrapped.com/
Who needs CNBC with anchors like these?

with thanks to my good friend REDNECK.



sourdough (11/21/01; 20:21:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 65711)
on deflation
Deflation is now the big threat to economies

Economists worry about deflation as it can be very destructive - at least in theory

By
Robert Samuelson



WHAT do computer chips, coffee, oil and airline fares all have in common? Their prices are falling. It is a mark of the changed economic outlook that deflation - a general decline in prices - has quietly replaced inflation as a threat.

Last week, the US Labor Department reported that consumer prices fell 0.3 per cent in October. A week earlier, the October Producer Price Index (reflecting raw-material and wholesale prices) dropped 1.6 per cent from September, the biggest monthly decline in the index's history since 1947.





Economists worry about deflation because it can be enormously destructive - at least in theory. If consumers think prices tomorrow will be lower than today, they may postpone buying. That would depress production, threatening even lower prices and a deflationary spiral.

Likewise, deflation harms borrowers, because they have to repay their debts in costlier dollars. Suppose you're a widget maker with a US$1 million loan. With widgets selling for US$6 each, you easily make your loan payments.

If widgets drop to US$4, you struggle. Perhaps you fire workers or cut wages. Maybe you default or simply shut down. Now your bank (or another lender) has suffered a loss. It has less money to lend to others. So deflation can trigger a chain reaction of layoffs, defaults, bankruptcies and tight credit.

Against this grim backdrop, what do we know about deflation? Herewith a brief primer.Do we have it?Not yet - and many economists doubt we ever will. Despite last month's drop, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen 2.1 per cent in the past year. The CPI's recent decline stemmed mainly from lower petrol and home oil prices, down 12.6 per cent and 11.7 per cent from a year earlier. Still, some other prices also fell: hotel rooms (-3.4 per cent over the year) and clothing (-2.5 per cent).

As for the Producer Price Index (PPI), its tiny year-over-year deflation (-0.4 per cent) won't automatically lower consumer prices. The PPI dropped in 1991 (-0.1 per cent) and 1997 (-1.2 per cent) without dragging down the CPI.

One reason is that the PPI excludes most services - health care, college tuition, cable TV.

'I think the likelihood of a full-blown deflation in the United States is about nil,' says Mark Zandi of Economy.com, a forecasting service. 'Half the things we buy are services . . . that are based on labour costs. Compensation costs (wages, salaries, fringes) are slowing but not falling.'What does history teach?Just this: deflation's dangers seem greater in theory than practice. 'We've had a couple of recent recessions with deflation: one in 1937-38 and another in 1948-49. We recovered from those quite nicely,' says economist Allan Meltzer of Carnegie Mellon University. In both cases, says Mr Meltzer, the Federal Reserve prevented a deflationary spiral by easing money and credit.

The scary counter-example is the Great Depression. From 1929 to 1933, consumer prices fell almost 25 per cent, unemployment rose from 3 per cent to 25 per cent and 10,797 banks failed.

This was a classic deflationary spiral. Mr Meltzer blames the US Federal Reserve for not stopping it with easier credit.Do other countrieshave deflation?Yes. In Japan, consumer prices have been falling slowly since late 1998. Hong Kong and Argentina also have modest deflation. In the past year, consumer prices have dropped 1.2 per cent in Hong Kong and 1.7 per cent in Argentina. But these deflations seem more a consequence than a cause of economic distress. In Japan, for example, bad bank loans and scarce investment opportunities have enfeebled economic growth. Weak demand and surplus industrial capacity push down prices.

Up to a point, all this is reassuring. Indeed, a brief deflation might speed up economic recovery by enhancing Americans' purchasing power. But there's one huge unknown: the possibility of a devastating global deflation that might overwhelm central banks like the Federal Reserve.

Three quarters of world trade now consists of manufactures - steel, clothes, toys, electronics, tractors, cars, shoes - that compete directly with domestic goods. Because many of these products are similar, they follow the laws of supply and demand. Surplus supplies push down prices - and, clearly, there's worldwide surplus production capacity. Lower prices would then cripple export earnings (in dollars, euros and yen) of developing countries, which would have trouble paying for imports. Trade would suffer. Debtor countries would also strain to repay international bank loans and bonds. Argentina has already effectively defaulted.

There may be other losses that hurt creditors - banks, insurance companies and pension funds - in developed countries. Worse, manufacturers in the US, Europe and Japan would experience a growing squeeze as prices, profits and capital investment fell. With unemployment rising, the damage might then afflict services industries. After Sept 11, airline fares and hotel rates dropped; these are services. The Fed isn't eager to explore this logic. Its frantic interest-rate cuts aim to restart the US economy so that deflation's theoretical dangers remain just that. Stay tuned. - The Washington Post Writers Group



Galearis (11/21/01; 20:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 65710)
@ auspec & Netking
re: Yes, but when will this matter become more than simply uncommon knowledge??
That question I think I can answer: in about 8 to 10 years when someone writes the book on the new century's great financial scandal.

@Netking: What hear ye about an Indian government sale involving 80 million oz. of silver bullion??????

Gotta go. Will check back tomorrow,

G. night

G.



Galearis (11/21/01; 20:10:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65709)
@ Canuck
If it don't make sense, there's a reason
The media has, on almost a daily basis, performed on the premise that the listeners are as sophisticated as they can be made to be. And they prove it by statements like that.

So far they are right. (smile)

If you want some Canadian econo-amusement (and don't watch CNBC - I don't for lack of cable in my rural area) try tuning in to Paula Todd on TVO on Tuesday nights. She usually interviews a couple of CNBC pundit types. I critique their responses and notice that Paula is now asking the right questions and getting ever more hilarious responses. These I critique for her the next day. Good fun is had by all.

But she isn't able to get credible experts past her producers - I've been trying to get Doug Pollitt on the show for a couple of years now. Paula knows the info is spin by now but there is little she can do - except file my critiques for her own enjoyment.

Time will tell...I may be successful in cleaning up a small act on the world stage and that will be a little satisfying.

And maybe CBC (or whoever) will also stop making dumb statements like the one that you quoted..

But at what then would we laugh?


G.




site steward (11/21/01; 19:34:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65708)
new reserves
Catching up a bit.

Yesterday the Fed temporarily added $4.8 billion to banking reserves via three-day RPs, and added another $3.45 billion to that today via five-day repos, all at rates just slightly above the 2% FOMC target.

Also added to reserves today were $3 billion at a longer term through 29-day repurchase agreements also in the neighborhood of 2 percent.

The next scheduled meeting of the Open Market Committee is December 11. Short term funds are already at giveaway pricing in light of the generally accepted measures of annual inflation rate. Will funds get cheaper? Stay tuned.

In any course, there won't be any such thing as emerging unscathed from this current era of money that is fundamentally over-valued (world purchasing power) and under-priced (interest rate).

R.

The Invisible Hand (11/21/01; 18:49:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65707)
A life in the day of a gold-freak

Wednesday, November 21, 2001 was the day the Brussels EU bureaucrats, whose farming cartel drives food prices to da moon in Europe and outbids third world producers in world markets, fined vitamin makers. Although the internet connection was very bad, I heard Mario Monti, EU top bureaucrat for antitrust say on the BBC World Service Radio that it was good that the fines were high as it concerned food. Sorry, who is sending food price to da moon?

Fortunetely the London Times carried on Thursday November 22 morning a comment saying that cartels can oil the wheels of business. (http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,37-2001541686,00.html)

The FT, for its part, explained on that same Thursday that enough has probably been done to prevent recession spiralling out of control and that therefore world deflation is remote
(http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT391O9JBUC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=FTD1OUN2DNC&tagid=FTDNE3BOBNC&SectionTag=na/column&PageTag=2cosabr&imgID=FTDMHXWBONC)

In an article "In the long run, we're all misled", The Guardian advocates hedging on Thursday:
There is a sense in which the markets seem to think that the party can be resumed just like that, irrespective of the enormous imbalances in the US and elsewhere, and irrespective of the necessary correction which follows a long period of over-investment by business and excess borrowing by consumers.
Of course, you never know: the markets could be right. But personally, I'd hedge my bets.
(http://www.guardian.co.uk/recession/story/0,7369,603102,00.html)

Gata-freaks can only be too happy that antitrust policy, whose European enforcers will at the end of the day bring about world famine, is still alive.

Gold-freaks can only be too happy that inflation, not deflation, is lurking around the corner.

All of us can be happy that hedging will this time not be done against but with gold.

Or are we all misled, like The Guardian says?

Pandagold (11/21/01; 18:36:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65706)
Have a good holiday
Bon Soir tout le monde (very clever Chinese Panda, he speak French) Have a great Thanksgiving. I will be at an American;s home here in Southern England near the New Forest, to join in the thanksgiving meal - in fact, I am going to prepare it. ( no, it won't be Kentucky Fried bamboo shoots)

Pandagold (11/21/01; 18:27:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 65705)
Waverider 'contradictions' your post#65658
I hadn't forgotten you. Just get to answer it before I turn in. I am not quite sure exactly what you see my contradictions are. I thought we had settled the matter - we both made apologies for misunderstanding.

You must understand there is a different approach we make to comments by posters here on the forum. They are all only opinions. We understand that. Their benefit to me come from
allowing me to see how others view things. And, sometimes they reveal something which trigger thoughts which stimulate other thoughts and help to build some better understanding of what I am concerned about at the time.

There are some great minds on this forum, and we are lucky to have them.

But quotes and information from links whose information usually stem from media reports are a different matter, and I apply a different mind approach to those.

As I said, I am not sure I fully unstood you, so hope my comments are relevant.

Pandagold (11/21/01; 18:02:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65704)
"they keep turning up"

Officials in New York say the death toll in the 11 September attacks is in fact below 4,000


On our UK news the reporter said it was now down to about 3000, 'as people who were thought to have been in the building keep turning up'.

Amazing ' just keep turning up' About 3000 have turned up. Where the hell where they?

I say no more. Wait a few more months until another thousand or so 'turn up'.


Canuck (11/21/01; 17:52:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 65703)
@ Galearis
Just heard that CDN inflation hit a 2 year low of 1.9%, "dollar takes a dive and opens the door to lower interest rates"

The Bank of Canada recently lowered short-term rates only 4 or 5 weeks ago by 0.75% and pundits are expecting more.

The Bank of Montreal (and I assume others) raised mortgage rates yesterday. A five year term was raised from 6.45 to 6.85%.

The 'curve' steepens more, why is going on? From bizarre to scarey.

Pandagold (11/21/01; 17:48:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 65702)
No need for more 'confirmations'

We don't really need another 'confirmation' of what is intended by this war, by Bush speaking to his troops or to whoever.. If you look back on all my posts, you will see I said it from the beginning what the intentions are.

It was there for anyone to see, I have no magic crystal ball. And I have not been alone. There are a growing number of people who see behind the face metaphorically, and literally. We are not all brainwashed by the media, their false reporting, nor taken in by appeals to our emotional patriotism. We have heard it all before.

Blair has become a shattered man, he has begun to realise that the intentions are anything but honourable. Unfortunately for him, he has a conscience and it is giving him hell. But he is now caught in the trap - one that you can't get out of.

He is having to deny again and again that there is a rift between he and the US administration. He has tried to make them see the otherside's point of view and find some ground for compromise, but the US hawks are in charge, they have tasted blood and want to clean up the Middle East for Israel no matter what the cost in blood or money.

Why do you think all this fire power, ships, planes and troops are deployed around the world - for that poverty stricken, barren wastland of Afghanistan?

No sir, we need no further 'confirmations' It was confirmed from day one.

I feel that unless the good Lord ( or whove is up there who cares, even just a little) intervenes in some way to bring people to their senses, the POG is going to be the least of all our worries

If you don't see it now, you most definitely will before long.



Netking (11/21/01; 15:49:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65701)
President George W. Bush confirms plans . . . .
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_1669000/1669262.stm
Snippet:
". . . . In a speech to thousands of soldiers on Thanks giving Day, US President George Bush vowed that all members of the al-Qaeda network would be brought to justice and promised victory in the war against terror. . . .

He gave his strongest hint yet that the war against terror could be widened to other countries once the Taleban were defeated. . . .

"Afghanistan is just the beginning of the war against terror," he said. . . .

"There are other nations who will not be secure until their threat is dealt with. . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
Comment: All indications are that Iraq will be the next focus with reports that Iran is also being closely examined also.

Meanwhile France prepares to send their nuclear powered aircraft carrier to the region. The link to gold? . . . the volatility of this region can affect the POG as much as nearly any other factor. Happy Thanksgiving to all in USA, may God bless you all. - Netking

Buena Fe (11/21/01; 15:33:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 65700)
well duhhhh!!!!!!!!!!
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO.voEhXUQXJnZW50&ao=22502591
11/21 12:44
Argentina's Central Bank Helps Government Meet Debt Payments
By David Plumb and Michael Smith with reporting by Mirta Fernandez

Buenos Aires, Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's central bank this month deposited $1.2 billion from its foreign currency reserves at state-owned Banco de la Nacion to help the government finance debt payments, a central bank board member said.

The government, which still has to make $1.8 billion of payments due through the end of the year, had to fill a funding gap after tax collection dropped for five months, said Guillermo Mondino, Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo's chief economic adviser. The central bank's board overrode restrictions on its reserves to deposit money for 30 days at Banco de la Nacion's New York branch, said Aldo Pignanelli, a board member.

``I don't like messing with reserves, but we had to do it,'' Pignanelli said in an interview. For accounting purposes, the central bank still shows the deposit as part of reserves that back up the country's one-to-one peg with the dollar, he said....................

----------------------------------------------------------
These bankers are a sad lot, Gata has proved the same accounting incompetance/lying/messing with the CB's gold. Its just a matter of time before they blow themselves up


CoBra(too) (11/21/01; 15:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 65699)
Normandy ... or killer beaches? -
The last time Normandy was in the headlines - it cost a lot of lives. It seems Normandy, while being a beautiful countryside has dangerous beaches. Though, nowadays it has more hedges and trenches and the generalissimo is called Robert Champi-(gn)on de Crespigny - don't wann'a be in his breeches.
In and over Normandy a lot of good guys lost their lives
and more are seemingly fighting over (the lost, hey, only short - Shifty!) gold today. As i'm a leetle beetle, i'm too dense to understand the reasoning of FN's Pierre Lassonde to take an interest of 19.9% in this super hedger. - ... so with the fight to the right to acquire NDY, i can only conclude Pierre wasn't too happy with the AU prelude.

So he just might, be behind the potential NEM preclude ... to finally exclude the hedge producers to further rape the industry!

If this is the case - Kudos to thee - PL - and the ABX vs AU rumors seem to concretezise the suspicion to oblivion -

A viscious vision - hopefully so - cb2

PS: Munkey's and Oliphant's to the new gilded Zoo, (un-) fed by Crespy Crisp, the most dangaroo vermin in our old God(for-e)sell, or sold derivative hell.

Belgian (11/21/01; 14:06:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 65698)
No subject
Pizz : the word "relevant" is not relevant in the given context.
Auspec : there is another 20 tonnes to be auctionned/shifted/swapped/distributed/relocated/exchanged/fostered...on tuesday in London.
Russia : their debt is biting, with much less income from trade (1/4 with US) and cru(d)e(l), prices.
Invisible : Boots company (UK) already announced having replaced stocks by bonds (?).
Next european rate cut might be 0,5% to even 0,75% !? (monthly decissions).
2002 is to be considered (consensus) a lost year for growth ?
Tim Wood reports that in contradiction of what has been claimed before, gold-diggers are still bringing more refined shiny to the surface (+2% yearly). Thanks gentlemens.
Prechter and his E.W./Fib. has indeed prognosticated a POG of 100$-200$. His wave count has been critisized and alternative counts have been presented. I have a little trick for Fibonacci theorists : last POG top was 413$ before the super manipulation started. If the bottom, calculated with a fib. ratio, coincides with reality, it is a confirmation of that bottom : 413$ x 0,618 = 255$ !?
Panda : that startshot of an exploding POG is almost a given. But the ultimate bottom and timing must therefore remain completely unknown. One can almost write a book full of theories, on *why*, it will and must happen this way !
There is not one single argument left anymore, as why it should/could/will -not- happen, otherwise.



megatron (11/21/01; 13:50:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65697)
Note
One site that I frequent was extremely bullish on securities in the past no matter what the scenario. they were pumping everything in 'site'. In the last two weeks they have become a bastion of safe investing advice. It must be the investor lawsuit rebellion looming on the horizon. Legal must have informed them as well as everybody else that the remotest 'buy'inferrance can/will lead to a lawsuit should that security/index drop. There are ARMIES of lawyers with nothing but time, and dreams. One way to get rich I guess.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD (11/21/01; 12:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 65696)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductPage.html

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