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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/21/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
WW Oracle
(9/21/2000; 23:56:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 37162)
@Black Blade
I sympathize with your desire for Harmony's ten-tola bars. But sovereigns aren't bad, either!
Tolas, sovs, and old gold coins also have another use: Currency exchange. It can be cheaper to buy them here and sell them in the British ex-Commonwealth than to pay a 5.5% fee to exchange fiat currencies.
Especially if you don't know your needs in advance and are traveling to more than one country. Have you ever been to England and tried to change dollars for d-marks? They charge you TWICE! - dollars to pounds, then pounds to d-marks.
canamami
(9/21/2000; 23:31:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37161)
>>>>>>Contest# 1 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If I, a USAGOLD poster, were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be a material change in the embracement of gold by the official sectors (i.e., governments/central banks) of significant countries. In particular, this could be achieved by (a) a modest actual change coupled with a public announcement of the government's/central bank's new policy towards gold, or (b) a much more significant actual change, if that change were unannounced. For example, if the parties to the Washington Agreement announced that there now would be no further sales from those central banks, or if they announced the winding down of all leasing activities, this would greatly impact on the POG. The initial change in actual activity would be modest, but the psychological effect of the announcement would be significant. In a somewhat different vein, if the Chinese central bank started dumping massive amounts of dollars, said dollars being used to buy gold, but without an announcement of this new policy, the effect of the actual market activities would probably knock the POG out of its price range.
I should explain why I have concluded the actions and policies of the official sector are the fulcrum upon which the POG turns. I started following gold in late 1997. The first issue for gold was the role it would serve in the new European Central Bank. For a while, it was felt that the ECB would not use any gold as an official reserve, and the POG fell. Then, it became apparent gold would be a reserve asset, and apparently the market priced in an expectation that gold would comprise 25% of the ECB's reserves, and the POG rallied. The rally stalled when the 15% backing was announced. Hence, the POG turned on the policy adopted by a major official player. In the same vein, note the effect the anticipated IMF sales and the BOE sales had on the POG. Most significant, recall the effect the Washington Agreement had on the POG.
Contrariwise, I argue the effect of actions of non-official holders, and also market events, have not had nearly the impact on the POG as have the official sector policies of the large holders. First, the Asian contagion of August/September 1998 eventually caused a bit of a delayed rally in the POG, but I don't believe it went much beyond $315, and the rally in gold eventually died out. This was an event which traditionally would have caused a great rally in the POG, but the actual or feared actions of official players killed any rally, either directly or by impacting on the psychology of the longs. In addition, inflation fears (and the periodic absence of such fears) have caused the NASDAQ and other equities markets to gyrate wildly. In other words, I do not fully accept the argument that there have been no inflation fears, and consequently the POG has not moved. Instead, I would submit that investors in equities have noted the risk of inflation (rising interest rates reflecting that fear, and rising oil prices raising inflation fears as well as perhaps causing inflation), and the equities markets have responded wildly to such fears. I would note that the POG also had rallied on occasion in response to inflation fears, but such rallies petered out. Note that the effect of the Washington Agreement was far greater on the POG than the fears of inflation. Moreover, there was a brief rally when Placer Dome announced it was curtailing forward sales, but the extent and staying power of that rally was far less than that of the rally which followed the Washington Agreement. Hence, I conclude the market fears official sales and manipulation more than it fears producers' forward sales. In short, the official sector's policies and actions are the fulcrum upon which the POG turns.
The effect of the perceived or actual willingness of large official holders to sell, kills rallies because speculators fear to buy at a somewhat higher price, lest the large official holders drive down the price, thereby killing the longs. Further, there is perhaps the actual use of official gold to engage in an unacknowledged regulation of the POG, as part of some sort of conspiracy. A pro-gold announcement by a major official player, coupled with real follow-up by that player, would hearten the longs and also signal the end of any conspiracy, or at least the end of any conspiracy that could be easily effected. Also, major unannounced purchases by a major official holder (or a country seeking to become a major holder) could drive up the POG, indirectly hearten the longs, and also make it difficult to continue any anti-gold conspiracy which might exist.
Hence, the POG will break out of its range once the official sector of a major gold country (or wannabe major gold country) makes a material change in its embracement of gold as an official asset.
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 23:30:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 37160)
WW Oracle
RE: WW Oracle: I don't have any of those, nor do I have any Brit Sovereigns. But I am interested if MK can get Harmony 10 Tola bars (~3.74 oz) and since I'm a shareholder of HGMCY it would be nice to help myself twice ;-)
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 23:25:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 37159)
@Stranger
Stranger: TOUCHE! I like that post. We can start dusting off our old WIN buttons from the 1970's. BTW, I got some Intel (INTC) shares. Even so I think that it's funny how a little earnings setback appears to be really causing a lot of worry. Asian markets are getting creamed in overnight action (except Sri Lanka – HA!) and Europe sure to follow. S&P Futures are down –26.20. Looks like it could be an interesting day on Wall Street tomorrow. I guess Clinton-Gore won't take credit for this :-)
WW Oracle
(9/21/2000; 23:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37158)
@Black Blade
Got any Britannias in your collection? These are beautiful 22K coins, and with a face value of 100 pounds sterling each, even if the short-sellers drive gold to zero, you won't lose more than half your investment. I can't understand why they aren't more popular. Last I checked, MK didn't carry them either. (Hint, hint!)
Perplexed
(9/21/2000; 23:16:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37157)
Congrats Al
Congratulations Al on the new recruits to the cause, and thanks for the kind words on my contest entry.
Steve H that was a very informative Second Amendment
article a few days ago. The intricacies of the word structure surrounding the various views of a statement
so plainly written is amazing. The compromising by
debate, subjects specifically forbidden by Supreme law, leapfrogs the concept of obedience, and instead derives a consensus of degree to which it will be disregarded, thus demonstrating overt contempt for the Constitution.
There exist however, hidden under a mountain of law books,
a little known opinion which promises to de-rail this very well conceived conspiracy.
This judicial time bomb may be found in the Sixteenth American Jurisprudence, Second Edition, Section 177.
A statement with many long years of lawful as well as legal
standing states:
" The general misconceptions is that any statute passed by legislators bearing the
appearance of law constitutes the law of the land.
The U.S. Constitution is the supreme law of the land, and any statute, to be valid, must be
in agreement.
It is impossible for both the Constitution and a law violating it to be valid; one must
prevail.
This is succinctly stated as follows: the general rule is that an unconstitutional statute,
though having the form and name of law, is in reality no law, but is wholly void, and
ineffective for any purpose; since unconstitutionality dates from the time of its enactment,
and not merely from the date of the decision so branding it.
An unconstitutional law, in legal contemplation, is as inoperative as if it had never been
passed.
Such a statute leaves the question that it purports to settle just as it would be had the
statue not been enacted.
Since an unconstitutional law is void, the general principles follow that it imposes no
duties, confers no rights, creates no office, bestows no authority on anyone, affords no
protection, and justifies no acts performed under it.
A void act cannot be legally consistent with a valid one. An unconstitutional law cannot
operate to supersede any existing valid law.
Indeed insofar as a statue runs counter to the fundamental law of the land, it is superseded thereby.
No one is bound to obey an unconstitutional law and no courts are bound to enforcement it."
It is well past time that this masterpiece of judicial common sense be elevated to the pedestal upon which it belongs. This statement, in unequivocal language, states that all existing proven law, takes precedence over any
part of any new law. At its face value this opinion
states that any existing legislation, to be superseded immediately by new legislation, must be revoked, and the
new inserted in its place. Because this procedure is
not followed, our " Democratic", system of contradictory
law serves as the playground for an army of expenses lawyers, many acting in concert as predators, their
hapless fellow citizens their prey. This opinion turns upside down, the present policy of enforcing
legislation until it has been challenged, and a court decision reached. Instead of the burden of proof falling
on the challenger to prove unconstitutionality after enforcement, the burden is transferred to the legislature
to prove constitutionality before enforcement.
Under a just system of government, this is the correct procedure.
This opinion should be so widely circulated on the internet that it becomes common knowledge.
Still Perplexed
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 23:09:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37156)
HappyGoldLucky and Gold!
RE: HappyGoldLucky: My suggestion is to hold a sample of each and look at them side-by-side and then decide. I have everything from Eagles, kangaroos, krugerands, maple leafs, various bullion bars and rounds from Au producers, and numismatic gold (mostly Liberties). I prefer the 24K coins because the gold color really stands out, but I also like the Krugerand design. I also have a few 24K Aussie Dragons. So you see it is just a matter of preference. You might want to call the guards at the Castle's treasury and make some inquiries (USAGOLD) and chat with them about it. Maybe a few other of MK's clients have passed on the reasons for their preferences. You see a large group like here on the forum will all have different reason and preferences. Good luck! – Black Blade
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 22:58:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 37155)
RE: wolavka and Canuck
Just Got in!
RE: wolavka #37113: I'm not sure about the current status of what companies are using steam injection. I do know that in some areas, steam injection has been and probably still is used to mobilize heavy oils. Once extracted sometimes the heavy oil is mixed with solvent to keep it from congealing.
RE: Canuck #37114: The main reason why I thought that a GOLD and FN merger would be acceptable was because I'm afraid that the alternative could be that a hedge-fund like Barrick or AngloGold would take over FN. Though AngloGold is very profitable and Barrick marginally so, FN is a cash cow without the liability associated with mining. They do have a small underground mine in Midas, NV (Ken Snyder Mine). Personally I would prefer that FN remain independent as a royalty company. GOLD is a very good unhedged and profitable miner that should do well without FN in the mix, but the pressure is on gold producers to attract investment as large behemoths. I also have Harmony Gold (HGMCY) which is an excellent and very profitable producer that I would think would have been an even better merger partner. A merger with a lightly hedged producer like NEM would be interesting but I think that the fat-lazy corporate attitude with companies as NEM would just swallow up FN and they would just get lost in the mix. Goldcorp is interesting as it is a much smaller an nimbler player. But I just don't know how they would fit together and even so a merged FN-Goldcorp would still be an easy takeover target. Besides an independent FN does not get entangled in someone else's mining liabilities and at the same time collects some of the action from the royalties.
RE: Canuck #37118: There were stockpile buildups before Y2K as no one really had a clue as to what would happen. I recall that while on a flight to Singapore some time ago, I was sitting next to an offshore oil platform worker. He told me that the company that operated the rig, turnkey and control systems had some computer wizards on board who were just going crazy from all the bugs they found. The question of embedded date sensitive chips was addressed, though they just figured that they would adopt a "Fix-On Fail" strategy since they couldn't test everything without destroying a lot of equipment. For reasons like this, I believe that oil producers stored a lot of crude just in case they lost any production capacity. The Saudis for some time had problems with their fellow OPEC members whenever they planned to moderate oil production so that they could get what they thought was a reasonable price for oil. Many members like Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela would invariable cheat on their quotas and the price of oil remained low. These really rubbed the Saudis the wrong way and they decided to punish OPEC by letting the oil flow into the market and drove prices to extremely low prices, which was what really fueled the economic expansion of the 1990's. Finally the other OPEC member were feeling the pressure and they realized that they were practically giving away their precious resources. The Persian Gulf conflict and "Asian Contagion" were about the only disruptive events during this period. After Y2K turned out to be a minor event, OPEC finally reduced supply by returning to their quotas and convinced non-OPEC producers to do likewise. The oil inventories slowly dropped and at the same time Asian countries began to recover from the "Asian Contagion" and soon they demanded more oil. The world's booming economies soon demanded more oil to fuel an almost ever-increasing economic expansion and soon most oil producers were producing at near full capacity except the Saudis. We now have a precarious situation where the Saudis can produce a bit more, but no one wants to hold their excess oil in storage. The demand for oil is roughly equal to the supply coming to the markets. The real problem is refinery capacity. Most refineries are overdue for maintenance and only continue to operate because for the first time in years they're making good profits. Eventually some of these refineries will have no choice but to shut down for maintenance or else we will be seeing reports of refinery fires, explosions, and in general equipment malfunctions that will result in much longer term disruptions to the petroleum distillate supply. You probably saw or heard Al Gore discuss that the Prez should release SPR oil to the market. This guy has really lost touch with reality. The refineries are turning away excess Saudi crude, so why would they want excess SPR oil? The 571 million-barrel SPR supply is only roughly equal to 6 hours petroleum use in the US, and if released in conjunction with the current supply could be gone in 30 days. The US hasn't had a new refinery built since the 1970's and is in dire need of building refinery capacity. The EPA regulations, liability, and political opposition are the reasons why we are in this developing crisis now. Another reason is that despite 30 years of political rhetoric and hand wringing about the need to become energy self-sufficient, we have done nothing but make exploration targets off limits by declaring them national monuments. The wastelands known as the Escalante Staircase NP is a desert hellhole that was actively explored for petroleum by Conoco, and for the more environmentally friendly low-sulfur coal explored for by Andulax (SP?). Side note: Speculation is that this area was place off limits by Wee Willy by decree through the Antiquities Act because Indonesia's Lippo Bank owned the only other world class low-sulfur coal deposit. Remember that the Lippo Bank paid a $300,000 bribe to Wee Willy as a "Campaign Contribution" through their agent Mr. Rhiady. Other areas off limits are Montana's Rocky Mountain Front, and the Alaskan North Slope among others. So you see, in my opinion, there are a lot of issues that came together that set the stage for this current crisis, and things are definitely not going to get any better in the short or intermediate term. The era of cheap oil is over, and the economic expansion along with it. The next US president can look forward to the same legacy as Herbert Hoover unless this house of cards caves in on Wee Willy before he leaves the Whitehouse with the presidential silverware. I hope I answered your questions and didn't depress you at the same time. Cheers! – Black Blade
megatron
(9/21/2000; 20:15:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 37154)
auspec
oh dear dear dear, Mr Auspec you have broken a cardinal rule of our happy group. NO ONE here is supposed to make money on gold futures. That's only for evil immoralist liberals. don't let it happen again. :)
Cavan Man
(9/21/2000; 20:05:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 37153)
Significance of Tech/Dollar symbiosis
I have read that Eurodollars price US equities. Eurodollars are the USD offshore float. There is a lot of foreign investment in US techquities. Reason; we have the top tech companies in the world right here. Any flight from US equities would/should (who knows anymore!) negatively impact the relative strength of the USD. In fact, the effect on the Euro could be positive under such a scenario. Guess we'll see tomorrow.
poortrader
(9/21/2000; 19:43:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37152)
wolavka and Cavan Man
I would like to join in the party or to sing a chorus of It's Crying Time Again. Let's have 2 martunies and make them extra dry!
lamprey_65
(9/21/2000; 19:26:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37151)
Quack Quack!
Watch for falling duck tomorrow...NAZDUCK that is!
Whew! Intel really screwed this one up, that chip recall must have been the icing on the cake. Anyone who reads Fleck knew this has been a disaster waiting to happen.
Down 21% tonight...21% to go for long term trendline support. Ugh. Much pain tomorrow in tech land.
Mr. Gore says, "Tap the oil reserve..." Well, what a surprise, heh? You could see this coming a mile away.
Confirmations from the British press...yep, looks like Clinton-Gore are going to pump the dollar (or is it drive down the Euro?) until they make it through the election. Things must be humming in the ol' Exchange Stabilization Fund offices. Your tax dollars hard at work...or maybe they're just newly printed dollars!
Folks, get your gold ASAP!
Lamprey
Cavan Man
(9/21/2000; 19:21:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 37150)
the Stranger
Cab fares up 25% in my area. Had breakfast the other morning with some friends of mine (old cabbies). They love the new rates until they go to Walgreens for their meds and smokes. Very best to you!!!
Cavan Man
(9/21/2000; 19:19:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37149)
Cheers CB2
Well said Sir Knight!
Cavan Man
(9/21/2000; 19:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 37148)
wolavka
Your're on! In the Loop or out west?
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 18:49:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 37147)
Anybody want to meet me
at the Drake in chicago, for a Martini. Time to get ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
auspec
(9/21/2000; 18:43:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 37146)
Futures
I just sent some extra $ in to a futures account to back up gold and silver contracts in case things get a little out of hand and we see $250-260 gold {FOA says "I told you so"}. Am not a big fan of margin calls so this is a preemptive strike!
In spite of common advice on this forum to avoid futures I can't help but recall the nice bonus given in the gold futures nearly one year ago. That was sweet. I believe that anything short of a mammoth gold move will provide rewards via futures and plan on being a player through at least next March {arbitrary date but also capital preservation strategy}. Getting the hell out of Dodge with shares and futures, in case of a huge upside move, may be prudent. Will gladly leave some of those chips on the table for the next guy and hold physical for the end game.
Paper gold worked a yr ago and is likely to do so again & soon. Got Gold in its myriad forms?
AUSPEC
Canuck
(9/21/2000; 18:38:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37145)
Farfel at his best over at G-E
"To all gold shorts: Pull a nice shiny dime from your pocket boys, and call your mommy and let her know you are now officially bankrupt.
Thanks
F* "
---------------------------------------------------------
End.
Too funny.
TheStranger
(9/21/2000; 18:30:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 37144)
Albert Gore, the Anti-capitalist
I excerpt the paragraphs below from a story at Yahoo:
Thursday September 21, 7:23 pm Eastern Time
Exxon Mobil defends itself against Gore's charges
NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - news), the No. 1 U.S. oil company, defended itself on Thursday against charges by Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore that oil companies were making exorbitant profits off American consumers.
``The use of the terms 'gougers' and 'profiteers' are not only totally untrue ... the terms are misleading in that they obscure the real issue facing the American public, which is the need for a coherent, economically and environmentally sound energy policy,'' the company said in a statement.
The response came after Vice President Gore criticised oil companies during a campaign speech in Hollywood, Maryland, accusing them of ``profiteering'' on the backs of working Americans.
``America's energy resources should not be so reliant on others, so subject to shortages, so vulnerable to big-oil interests with disregard for the public interest,'' Gore said.
He added, ``If I am entrusted with the presidency, I will work toward the day when we are free forever of the dominance of big oil and foreign oil.''
The company also pointed out that it only made 5 cents for every gallon (3.8 liters) of gasoline it sold, while the federal and state governments took in an average of 40 cents in taxes for every gallon sold.
TheStranger
(9/21/2000; 18:11:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 37143)
The Intel News May Have Negative Implications For the Dollar
No matter how high the U.S. trade deficit gets, the dollar perversely rises right along with it. Part of this, no doubt, is due to the steady flow of foreign capital into the U.S. for investment in America's wildly popular technology stocks. As such, today's Intel news may be a real watershed event, not only for the stock market, but for the dollar as well.
If we can just reach the point where the words "flight to safety" no longer automatically mean "buy dollars" to people around the world, perceptions about gold ought to improve in a hurry(hint: As in right now!).
Hello to you, too CoBra!
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 17:35:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37142)
golds up 1.20
in access mkt gold ready to explode.
CoBra(too)
(9/21/2000; 17:34:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37141)
Hello Stranger - The Contract on America -
- Even as Mafia Terminology describes, may well have been signed already - you can only dictate a n d forge for as long as you're not found out. The Austrian Empire lasted for 900 years via fortunate marriages with fortunes - Tu Felix Austria Nube! - America only sibling 200 years, and corrupt already?
You don't need a new Contract (is it with or on) - only the old Constitution!
Take Care - cb2
TheStranger
(9/21/2000; 17:07:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 37140)
It Ain't Necessarily So
Here's what it all comes down to. Clinton and Gore never miss an opportunity to claim responsibility for everything which is good about the economy. Never mind that the hallmark of Clintonomics was an effort to nationalize 14% of the economy through a socialized healthcare plan which was a total flop. Never mind, either, that the recovery in the 90s was a demonstrably substandard affair until Newt Gingrich came along and passed the Contract with America (Gore contemptuously labeled it the Contract ON America).
Clinton had to be force-fed the Welfare Bill. Then, in his 1996 State of the Union address, he asked us to elect a Democratic congress so that he could dismantle much of it. We didn't, of course, but, oh boy, does he like to take credit now for the reduction in unemployment which the Welfare Bill accomplished.
Let's face it. We all know why the expansion of the 90s has lived on as long as it has. We also know why the stock market managed to reach valuations which were heretofore unheard of. It wasn't Clintonomics. It was money creation, money creation like America has seldom seen before.
If history doesn't repeat, I'll eat my mouse. Remember when Nixon tried to avert a recession by getting Arthur Burns to crank up the money press? Later on, when inflation inevitably followed, the hapless president simply ordered up a wage and price freeze. (Hey, I've got an idea. Lets build the economy by printing lots of money. And we won't have to worry about inflation. Well just outlaw it!). Well, today, Al Gore icalled upon President Clinton to start releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and to keep doing so until prices "stabilize". If this is a foretaste of Gorenomics, I don't like it. It tastes too much like Nixonomics to me. Hey, Al, haven't you heard? Free markets WORK. Didn't Ronald Reagan prove that when he broke the last oil price spiral by DECONTROLLING prices. Weren't you paying attention back then, or are you just trying to get elected?
*****
Well, gentle reader, if that's not enough mendacity for one post, consider this. For the past year, management at Intel has been able to keep goosing the stock price despite lackluster operating results. So much so, in fact, that, between January and August, the stock rose by a remarkable 50%, which was no easy feat given the bear market going on elsewhere in technology. This impressive bit of sorcery was accomplished in part by accounting gimmicks which are, by now, well-known to members of the forum. But, there was also a promise which was made all year that things would soon be picking up in PC land. "Look for a great second half," management was quoted as saying. ("Look at what's going on over at Microsoft," would have been better advice). Well, this afternoon, with only a week to go in the third quarter, management was finally forced to admit that the much ballyhooed second half simply ain't happnin'. Ugh!
Anyway, if you have any friends who are still laden with technology, be a good Samaritan and buy them a drink before the market opens tomorrow. They're going to need it!
CoBra(too)
(9/21/2000; 16:37:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 37139)
Soft Landing...?
For whom? May be the correct question; Since I've been familiar with the term since the 70's and I've always wondered what it may mean and to whom or what it may apply to in the real world.
Well, Butt-Head, it's an enonomic term, meaning the reciprocal option of "hard" landing was the reply. And as
hard landings are usually described as the bare avoidance of a crash, I would positively wish for this kind of "hard" landing as an available and viable option. Though, in the real world of economics - and maybe in every other venue of mankind as well - the sky's the limit.
Just as Ikarus overshot the limit with wings of feathers stuck together by bee's wax and got too close to the sun, the $-led globalization is getting too close to its last funeral pile and may already smoulder at the edges, which may give it a little extra bouyancy before being consumed by its own "paper" weight. And that's, in all probability, the only soft landing open for todays remarkable credit excesses in the western world, where 10% of the globes population ravage this until now only globe we populate, as sure as we would have 5 of the same.
In my view, and I may be a little overwhelmed by watching so much of the earth being destroyed, by not caring - and it starts in front of your door - as in litter your neighbour (and not only in the sense of oversupply of $'s to finance this litter) - and by the overall new religion of mammon or better paper profit to the detriment of all.
If this is the final and as it seems sole outcome of globalization, free trade and "free" markets, feeding monstrous, anonymous and ever growing molochs of corporate
beasts, laughing at democratic regulatives and the power vested unto their electoral bodies by us, the people, I'd opt for a system of true measures. True and just measures of barter, trade and overall economy, where the word was your bond, the work your credit (forget-card) and gold the equal standard of morality.
The planet may, after all and once again, brush off all the excesses and if it's only by supply constraints, there still is little reason for westerners to expect a soft landing...
Or as a passenger of a Trans-Global flight remarked
to his fellow traveller after being warned of another little more flying time after the 3'rd engine failure: " A' sure 'ope our 4th engine will not give out, otherwise we might spend all night up here"! -
Anyway, happy landings - cb2
Sorry for rambling - this post started out totally different - though I'll let it stand ... and maybe have a well deserved single malt ... aand I won't even edit, knowing I'd delete the post.
JavaMan
(9/21/2000; 16:19:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37138)
RossL...
http://www.quote.com/quotecom/livecharts/default.asp?symbols=
I've been watching at the link above (enter INTC into the Symbol field)...and looks like big volume. This oughta whack the mutual funds too.
RossL
(9/21/2000; 16:07:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 37137)
INTC - Intel stock crashes on earnings report
http://www.investech.com/
Intel released a poor 3rd quarter earnings report late this afternoon and the stock is now down 22% in the after-hours market. This will make the "gorilla index" chart over at investech.com really take a dive.
JavaMan
(9/21/2000; 15:33:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 37136)
Lady Leigh, a profound post!
You said "I want to warn them, but I know my warnings will go unheeded (at best) or that I will be turned upon."
An old friend of mine used to say, "You can't keep people from being stupid."
Seriously though, it seems to be a problem for anyone who is evangelical about anything. Others just aren't interested in listening and in the final analysis, there doesn't seem to be anything we can do about it. Noah may have explained why he was building his ark but I don't think he spent any time trying to persuade people to get on board...
wolavka, your msg#: 37128...exactly!
I appreciate your perpetual optimism. Thanks.
Cavan Man
(9/21/2000; 15:06:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 37135)
Hello Broken Tee
Those wells are pumping now I believe. A drive across Illinois, Kansas, West texas etc would confirm.
Al Fulchino
(9/21/2000; 15:00:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 37134)
Steve H
Just signed up three new NRA members. We can win this battle. This is not a new battle in man's history...
Best to you.
Rod
(9/21/2000; 14:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37133)
Gold Fields / Franco Nevada
Looks like the gold cabal has gotten to the South African finance minister and told him to nix the merger. Now who would have been scared of that? In my opinion, the international board of directors at barrick and peter monk !
By the way, George Bush, Vernon Jordan, and Brian Mulroney are just some of the directors. What a rotten deal !
Regards, Rod
Broken Tee
(9/21/2000; 13:23:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37132)
(No Subject)
This is probably an over simplification but,
With the cost of oil this high and possibly going higher. Why don't the U.S. oil companies begin pumping from the wells they shutdown when the cost of oil was low and unprofitable. It would seem the transportation cost(s) and processing time from within the continental U.S. would be much cheaper than waiting on a super tanker, thus increasing their profit margin.
Could they possibly be waiting until the reserves in the Middle East become so low that the U.S. becomes the major oil producing region? Or maybe it easier to blame someone else for our problems, be quiet and rake in their profits.
RkyMtGold
(9/21/2000; 13:15:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 37131)
Canuck - see ANOTHER's 6/29/98 post for your answer
Notice the last two lines? "The Euro group/China/Mideast will HEAT UP TO FORM THE GREATEST DEMAND FOR OIL. All producers will rush to sell oil for euros and dump dollars." Preplanned oil shortage?
"The wealth of gold, it does not change. It is hidden from view for the purpose of changing reserve currencies. The dollar has consumed the wealth of all who hold assets in these terms. The American debt is evidence of this consumption. The expansion of this debt now destroys the economies of countries that use the dollar as a reserve. The Euro will be forced to become a successful, hard reserve currency or "gold as a currency" will be backed by oil and take it's place! China and Arabia can force this outcome, as the Euro group will trade with China as the Japan has with America. China will devalue in time and break the American/Pacific economy as oil finds a "good price for commerce" in Euros. This is done as "intervention" into the oil markets, in dollar terms forces the oil price up! In this time the entire Euro Group /China / Middle Eastern economy will heat up to form the greatest demand for oil. All producers will rush to sell oil for Euros and dump dollars."
SteveH
(9/21/2000; 12:46:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37130)
Twice Discipled
That question is much the same as asking, "what is your religious preference?" Or, "What is your sexual preference?"
It is a question that in time they will regret asking, imo. BTW, you might consider a 2nd amendment harrassment lawsuit. Be the first.
Steve
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(09/21/00; 12:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 37129)
Swiss to take over top job at Deutsche Bank
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/000921/27/ak3ou.html
Josef Ackermann, the 52-year-old Swiss who heads Deutsche Bank's global investment banking operation, is to replace Dr Rolf Breuer, 62, as chief executive of the Frankfurt-based bank when Breuer retires in two years' time, writes Stewart Fleming.
He will be the first non-German chief executive of Germany's most powerful financial institution, one of the world's leading investment banks.
The announcement underscores the growing importance of the investment banking division in Deutsche's operations - last year it accounted for 60% of Deutsche's e4 billion of pre-tax profits.
Since Breuer took over in 1997, Deutsche has accelerated the growth of its international investment banking operations and is now one of the top global investment banks.
Ackermann spent most of his working life with the Swiss giant Credit Suisse and its investment banking business Credit Suisse First Boston.
wolavka
(09/21/00; 12:23:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 37128)
richardson/clinton
come on guys release the spr now.
Now opec, just cut em off, sell no oil to u.s.a.
Let them sit for 30-90 days till dead of winter season.
It's getting interesting.
HappyGoldLucky
(09/21/00; 12:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37127)
Contest#1: My 153 words
If I, a USAGOLD "poster", were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be...
...growing nervousness in the US stock market this fall, leading to a correction in share prices and the dollar. This would set off a sharp gold price rally.
This would manifest as s gradual increase in share price volatility in coming weeks, but trending down. During the middle of October, large sell orders would come from abroad, weakening also the dollar. The scene would be set towards the end of the month for generalized panic to sweep the markets and drag paper assets down - way down. The dollar would then continue to slide, as money flowed overseas, into currencies like DM, SFr and Yen. At this point the gold price would rise sharply, initially propelled by producer and bullion bank short covering in foreign markets. In doing so, it would attract the attention of panicky investors, setting off a stampede into gold investments - the only safe haven in a real crisis.
wolavka
(09/21/00; 12:09:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 37126)
okay share mkts
HOW DO YOU GET A MARGIN CALL ON PHYSICAL METALS???????????????????????????????????????????
Come on, hide and seek, you find em and then you can have them.
HappyGoldLucky
(09/21/00; 11:48:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 37125)
Thanks a lot, RossL. I´ll check out the collectibles too!
Although, I´m predisposed to think the basic pure gold coins make fine sense as a store of value. They are beautiful in their own right (judging from the pictures), and they should also become real collectors items in due time, not to speak of after the price rockets.
TownCrier
(9/21/2000; 11:30:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 37124)
Hear ye! Hear ye! The final contest deadline approaches Friday!
http://www.usagold.com/acontest.html
Click the link to see the contest rules, and let the games continue!
To celebrate the approach of September 22nd, marking the second anniversary of the birth of the Forum here at USAGOLD, we have organized several games of skill and luck for your participation...with prizes of GOLD to be awarded to the several winners.
The final contest deadline (for Contest #1) approaches Friday, with the top prize being the coveted Uruguayan Five Peso gold coin . . . and tenth ounce gold bullion coins for the two runners up. Any way you slice it, the price is....right!
TownCrier
(9/21/2000; 11:27:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 37123)
Daily Market Report (and Live News)
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Read it daily...found here.
For your convenience, the mini site map at the top of each USAGOLD page contains a direct link to MK's Daily Market Report page. The hyperlink looks like this...
(Daily Market Report)
Peter Asher
(9/21/2000; 11:23:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 37122)
Phoenix (9/21/2000; 8:59:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 37111)
I hope we didn't embarrass you with our nominations, You scored on the first post, take the win. It still needs two more seconds anyway.
Gandalf and I were just fooling around. You probably didn't pick up from lurking that we visit him often. I was playing with the concept of one as an invisible poster as compared to the real life image.
Peter Asher
(9/21/2000; 11:08:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 37121)
Twice Discipled (09/21/00; 09:47:53MT msg#: 37115)
That question is actually quite logical. Your health is definatly improved by having a handgun in your home to defend yourself from visiting social workers!
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 11:01:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 37120)
don l over 2 G.E.
posted open interest up in gold futures.
Now which side do we all think these are ???
RossL
(9/21/2000; 10:42:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37119)
HappyGoldLucky - your question in msg#: 37090
Your questions about the content and condition of gold coins do not have a hard answer, the answers reflect your personal perferences. You may wish to split up your purchases as a diversification. Krugerrands are the way to purchase coins with the smallest premium. They are 22K gold. Some people like 24K gold coins because they can be melted down for jewelry.
The pre-1933 coins are beautiful works of art, and I prefer them BU. (uncirculated). Warning - collecting gold coins can become addicting. Many 19th century and older coins cannot be found in BU condition very easily, and have a much higher premium.
You could contact USAGOLD if you need direction on the debate between bullion vs. pre-1933 gold coins.
Canuck
(9/21/2000; 10:28:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37118)
@ Black Blade
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chron.html
I meant to 'send' you this link long ago and pose a question. Please respond if you have a moment.
The above link from the EIA analyses 59 disturbances in the POO and suggests that the early '99 and through '99 increase in the POO was attribitable to Y2K inventory buildups.
Do you agree with this?
Please recall that in Jan. 00 oil retreated to $24/bbl before regaining momentum. Has the subsequent resurgence been attribitable to increased economic demand or is there a 'red herring' to the late winter/spring run-up in the form of middle-eastern political/monetary retaliation?
I have my doubts as to the truth of this oil business in terms of 'economic demand'. If there is truth to the Y2K concern causing run-up in '99 then one could say in was not true economic demand. Hence, what is the cause in '00? Some say OPEC has decided that oil is simply worth more, ie: the dollar is worth less, and secondly I am having difficulty sallowing the 'economic demand' theory when oil has fluctuated from plus 30 (pre-Y2K) to minus 25 (post-Y2K) and back to plus 34 (1Q00). Doesn't this seem a lttle too radical when the economic demand has been flat out? If oil reaches $40 by this winter, a near quadrupling will have taken place in 2 years and a near doubling since early Jan. '00.
Is this really all logical, accountable economic demand?
Do you see where I'm going with this?
I sense (only gut feeling) that there's ulterior motives being played out behind the scenes and perhaps not to the Western world's advantage. W.A. 2???
Can you help me with this ? Perhaps you can comment on era # 59 from the EIA link and add #60,61,62 etc.
Thanks you very much and in advance B.B.
Canuck.
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 10:14:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37117)
you know where the stops are in dec
G-7 G-7 G-7
let's see who comes out before tomorrows close.
USAGOLD
(9/21/2000; 9:55:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 37116)
Gandalf, my Wizardrous friend, and Hall historian. . .
I always looked at the 19th, 20th and 21st of September as false labor, birth pains and those type of things that I can only wonder about. I went with the beginning archive date of September 22nd, but I can now see that I am wrong.
Actually the whole Round Table Arthurian idea started with bmacd because she e-mailed me saying she wanted to post but was afraid to be the first. And if that happened on the 20th than that should be our official birthday. I forgot about the fits and starts and bundling all the posts we could find on the 22nd. I buttressed her courage with an offer of silver and the post went up. Thereafter, I referred to her as the Lion Hearted due to her exemplary courage and, well, that's how it all started.
So, with the permission of all and the indulgence of the Kindly Wizard, we will proceed this year with our celebration on the 22nd as planned (after at all it is a Friday) and then we'll move it to the 20th for 2001.
Thanks, Gandalf. We can always count on you to keep the record straight. And by the way, o Worker of Magic, the third contest is supposed to be difficult. Two gold coins at stake.
By the way, its great to see all the new people pulling chairs this sturdy oaken table of yore. . . .
Welcome all. This Friday we tip the Ale.
Twice Discipled
(09/21/00; 09:47:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 37115)
@SteveH
Thought you might find this interesting ...
I was filling out a Personal Wellness Profile for work where they give us a cash bonus for participating in a health screening which is supposed to be kept confidential and used only for statistical purposes.
Behold! Under the title
Social Health ...
Mark all that apply ...
11. There is a handgun in my home.
Canuck
(09/21/00; 09:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 37114)
@ Black Blade re: FN
I too have shares in FN. I recall FN dropping and relatively sharply at the merger announcement so why would this not reverse.
I have my 'reluctanties' over S.A. involvement; could this be a good thing?
How about a FN/NEM merger? or FN/Goldcorp merger? instead.
Curious.
wolavka
(09/21/00; 09:42:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 37113)
Sir Black Blade/ anyone
I am interested in down hole steam induction to release heavy crude.
In the 70's a corp. sullair worked in this area during the last oil crisis.
Are there any co's working in this field? Thank you.
Phoenix
(09/21/00; 09:37:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 37112)
Peter Asher Re: Taylor's OPEC article (msg #37080)
Would you please call me a chiropractor? Reading Mr. Taylor's article that you posted launched me out of my chair far too many times.
Mr. Taylor wrote:
"First, the belief that the oil fields are running dry is nonsense. Proven reserves (that is, oil that can tapped and marketed today at a profit) are 15 times larger today than they were in 1948. Moreover, given present consumption levels, the Energy Information Administration reports that oil fields could last another 230 years before running dry and that unconventional petroleum sources (tar sands, shale, and the like) could meet present demands for an additional 580 years."
My comments:
Oil fields could last another 230 years? Well, these go together about as well as Ally McBeal and a Big Mac Extra Value Meal.
Unconventional sources for additional 580 years? Hmmm…I can't think of a more extreme example than these go together as well as Richard Simmons and a woman.
Mr. Taylor wrote:
"Although the Saudis are producing 8 million barrels a day at a cost of $1.50 a barrel, they were churning out 10 million barrels a day during the Gulf War and have the capacity to go as high as 16 million barrels a day if they wished, at no increase in marginal cost."
My comments:
$1.50/bbl?? Well, I'll be, a shred of truth in the article. It just couldn't last tho’.
16 MMBOPD?? Two flaws here. First, I've read the Crown Prince say they could produce 14 MMBOPD with much investment, (i.e. it would take them 2-3 years to get there). It wouldn't suddenly show up on the market as this year's Economic Miracle on 34th Street. Second, he seems to not understand that oil production declines with time. It doesn't remain fixed and the total produceable volume the same. Producing it at that high a rate will only ACCELERATE the effect of DEPLETION.
He convientently chose the world's most rosy estimates sounded pretty demonstrative doing it. I thought journalists were trained to be cynical of government blather.
Fly to the Fire,
The Phoenix
Phoenix
(9/21/2000; 8:59:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 37111)
Peter Asher, Gandalf & Valor
Thank you both for your kind words. Put those nominations away, kind sirs. My post is simply the result of many years of oil/gold price repression. Oil is on the path and gold will surely follow.
Circumstances appear to require that a new definition of valor as it relates to Mr. Asher, at least if Gandalf if is to ever take him seriously again. In his defense, I would only say that anyone who seeks the luster of such a metal with Peter's dilligence qualifies as valorous. Especially, in the face of so much media sneering.
Fly to the Fire,
The Phoenix
Phoenix
(9/21/2000; 8:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37110)
Aristotle Re: CVK
The short answer is yes.
The long answer is that I received his tutelage in reservoir engineering in my youth. I've worked with him on a professional basis some years ago. It was an absolute pleasure. A great engineer and an even better human being.
That school is lucky to have such a man. I was fortunate to run across him in my earlier "irrational exuberance" days. You might be surprised (as I was) at the reach of Mines into the inner workings of USAGold.
Fly from the Fire,
Phoenix
RS
(9/21/2000; 8:44:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 37109)
Aristotle (9/21/2000; 3:50:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 37091)
Another elaboration, sir Aristotle
Mr. Triffin, simply WASN'T PAYING ATTENTION- (to reality).
And so it goes today, for the majority of people.
_____________________________________________________
"No state shall... make ANY THING but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts"
-U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 10
"If you expect a nation to be ignorant and free, you expect what never was and can never be."
-Thomas Jefferson
(M.K. and USA GOLD... Thank you!!!)
RS
(9/21/2000; 8:20:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 37108)
Where is Mr. Mitchell ?
We're concerned about you, "hillbilly".
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 8:19:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 37107)
greenspan
guy is talking about pure Math.
addressing scumbag lawyers who have created vehicles to rape individuals based on half truths and twisted values.
any lawyers out there come and see me , I'll straighten you out big time.
Politicians, bankers and lawyers, let me help you out.
Cassius
(9/21/2000; 7:39:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 37106)
@Wolavka
Thanks for your insights of last evening. Cassius
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 7:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37105)
short covering and stops
sitting just over 274, punch it up and let's go.
Humble Pie
(9/21/2000; 7:35:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37104)
# 37091
Good post ,Ari Its been said " Those that can, do and those that can't teach." That's why he hides in the academic world, if he had to earn a living he'd be SOL.
Zenidea
(9/21/2000; 7:34:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37103)
Is that so ?
The Aussie dollar ? Perhaps it is a misnoma to see things on so broad a basis as so many of the peddlers of the prophets doom and gloom may well have one believe.
There are many more precious metals out there in the wilderness than that of ag, au, pt and pd in the periodic table than that of which many of these so called predatory economy's in the world simply just dont have . Japan, Singapore etc; the energy has been spent.
America is burnt out , running on credit promises and bombs , the Arab countries on oil and religion etc etc. Oh yeah yeah brains , education lets go on about whattabout?.
Some of us have a little derivative called a piece of paper. (A Passport :). Have I incited an argument in an honourable and orderely fashion. PEACE.
HappyGoldLucky
(9/21/2000; 6:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 37102)
Shock news from Johannesburg: GoldFields shares dropping fast
From GoldFields web site:
SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT DECLINES APPROVAL FOR GOLD FIELDS / FRANCO-NEVADA MERGER
JOHANNESBURG, September 21, 2000 - Gold Fields Limited today announced that the Minister of Finance of South Africa, Mr. Trevor Manuel, has informed the company that exchange control approval for the previously announced conditional merger of Gold Fields with Canadian Franco-Nevada Mining Corporation, as structured and presented, has been declined.
Gold Fields is reviewing this response and will be seeking opportunities for further dialogue with the Government on the matter. Shareholders will be kept informed of developments.
A formal announcement, as required by the JSE, will follow shortly.
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 6:30:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 37101)
GOLD and FN Merger - Gone Poof!
South African Government Approval for
Franco-Nevada/Gold Fields Merger Denied
TORONTO, Sept. 21 /PRNewswire/ - Franco-Nevada Mining Corporation Limited (TSE:FN) today announced that the Minister of Finance of South Africa, Mr. Trevor Manuel, has informed Gold Fields Limited (JSE:GFI and NASDAQ:GOLD) that exchange control approval for the previously announced merger of the companies, as structured and presented, has been denied.
Black Blade: Oh My! I got shares in both! Ouch!Bummer!
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 6:27:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 37100)
watch fast track
tryin to break her at 274
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 6:21:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 37099)
"Morning Wakeup Call!"
Sources: BridgeNews, SA Press, Charleston Gazette, and Business Wire
THE EASTERN FRONT:
Asia Precious Metals Review: Spot gold traded around U.S. $270
Tokyo--Sept. 21--Spot gold traded at around U.S. $270 per ounce in Asia on Thursday. Aggressive selling from Australia emerged during Asian time on the back of a stronger U.S. dollar against major currencies, which pushed down spot gold prices, Asia-based dealers said. The price is expected to move between $268-271 range in the near term.
Black Blade: Aussie Peso is in the toilet, producers might as well everything forward, go belly-up, and leave the counter-party bankers holding the bag. Cool!
AFRICAN FRONT:
Super gold groups urged
By BARRY FitzGERALD
Thursday 21 September 2000
The big South African gold group Gold Fields believes the global gold industry remains too fragmented for its own good. It wants the world's big producers to follow its lead and begin a new round of consolidation to create three or four super gold groups capable of commanding the attention of global investors. The group is in the process, subject to government approval, of merging with Canada's Franco-Nevada, creating a $US4 billion ($A7.4 billion) powerhouse almost four times the size of Australia's leading gold producer, Normandy Mining. Gold Fields chairman and CEO Chris Thompson told the Mining 2000 conference at the Exhibition Centre in Melbourne yesterday that, as it was, gold equities were already "almost irrelevant" because there are only five players of any real size. That has been reflected in the fact that, for the first time in 40 years, United States gold stocks are trading at a discount to the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index rather than the threefold premium that was long the norm. Mr Thompson said he was surprised there had not been other mergers in the gold sector following on from the Gold Fields/Franco-Nevada link-up. But he acknowledged that money-saving synergies available through consolidations were not great. Another drag on the process was that a number of majors were partially owned by banks. "A merged Gold Fields/Franco-Nevada does not suffer the same problem. It will have no debt and $US800 million in cash, with an acquisition in Australia part of its long-term growth ambitions." The slide in gold prices to less than $US300 an ounce has not helped sentiment towards the sector. Mr Thompson said he believed that the growing spread of global prosperity had changed people's perception about the insurance value of gold. Continuing sales by the world's central banks of gold reserves had also raised "real questions about what gold is worth". That has given rise to what Mr Thompson said was the biggest issue facing the gold industry - the need to spend more on market development. AngloGold director Kelvin Williams agreed. He told the conference that it was no longer good enough in the modern era for gold producers to "produce it and dump it at the front gate".
Black Blade: It would be good to have very large gold companies to attract interest from funds, but the point is that at one time many of these companies were very large gold companies. Besides, fewer gold companies also mean fewer gold companies with different corporate strategies (hedged vs. unhedged, high dividend paying vs. no dividends, geographical positioning, etc.).
S Africa Press: S Africa won't be top gold producer by 2010
Johannesburg--Sept 21--South Africa was likely to lose its position as the world's largest gold producer by the end of the decade when its total gold production would have plummeted by more than a third to about 300 tons a year,
Business Report reports the department of minerals and energy said in a report released on Wednesday. The report predicted that only Gold Fields' Kloof and Driefontein mines would survive beyond 2025 "and both may have relatively short lives at that stage.
Black Blade: We'll see.
THE WESTERN FRONT:
SNB GOLD: Swiss gold reserves down 116.3 mln Sfr to 37.5 bln Zurich--Sept. 21--The Swiss National Bank disposed of 116.3 million Swiss francs' worth of its gold reserves in the 10 days through Sept. 20, it announced Thursday. This is equivalent to around 9 tonnes, in line with analysts' expectations of daily sales of about one tonne until end-September, when new quotas take effect.
Black Blade: Going, Going, Gone!
GFMS sees fabrication demand keeping gold at $265-285 for 2000
London--Sept. 21--In the absence of new supply-side shocks or a major correction in the U.S. dollar, a recovery in fabrication demand is likely to be sufficient to keep the gold price in a core $265-$285 range for the rest of 2000. Said Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), forecasting an average of $276 in the second half.
Black Blade: So that's 3 months to accumulate at bargain-basement prices.
Clinton: No threat of recession: Soaring oil prices fuel concerns about winter heating bills
Charleston Gazette
WASHINGTON - As protests spread across Europe over high fuel costs, President Clinton assured Americans on Friday he sees no threat of a U.S. recession anytime soon because of soaring oil prices. Clinton pledged to "do everything that I can to minimize ... any adverse impact on the American people." He said it was "quite important" that Congress reauthorize the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Senate is expected to vote next week. Consumer groups are urging the administration to tap the nearly 600 million-barrel reserve to force down prices. Eight weeks before the election, Americans are facing the prospect of winter heating bills about 30 percent higher than last year. With the price of oil near a 10-year high, the administration is particularly worried about the impact in the Northeast, where many homeowners are dependent on home heating oil. Oil markets also were nervous over new tensions between Iraq and Kuwait after Baghdad accused Kuwait of trying to steal Iraqi oil. Last week in New York, the president expressed concern that oil costs could trigger a recession somewhere in the world. He said Friday he saw no threat of that happening in the United States "in the short- to medium-term." Clinton said there had been no breakthrough in Mideast peace talks. He said there was "no reason for hope, no reason for despair." The only reason to be encouraged, Clinton said, was that the two sides are still talking.
Truckers block highways
Meanwhile, protests over high fuel prices spread in Europe with truckers blocking highways from Spain to Poland. With crude oil prices tripling since December, the protests are aimed at high taxes adopted as an environmental measure decades ago to discourage excessive fuel consumption. Clinton called anew on Congress to pass tax incentives encouraging businesses and individuals to purchase energy conservation or alternative energy products, which he said would "dramatically accelerate our energy independence." World oil markets are feeling the effects of OPEC's decision Sunday to pump an additional 800,000 barrels of crude oil daily, he said. "We have worked very hard over the last 25 years to be a more diverse economy and a less energy intensive economy in a lot of our production," the president said. "So we have withstood this oil price spike very much better than we did when it happened before." Roger Ferguson, the Federal Reserve Board's No. 2 official, said inflation appears to be under control despite the oil price increase, citing a Friday report showing the underlying rate of inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, was "reasonably well- contained." However, he said there were still inflation risks ranging from the tightest labor market in three decades to huge trade deficits. "I think it's really important for us to continue to monitor the situation because it is possible for these high oil prices to have a range of impacts on the economy, both on the pricing side and also on the demand side," he told reporters after a Washington speech.
Black Blade: If this winter is a normal or colder than normal winter, then the people will curse the name of Clinton through their chattering teeth. No matter who wins the election in November, the next president will inherit the same legacy as Herbert Hoover. SPR oil will have to compete with normal through-put at the refineries. Besides, not enough time to withdraw oil and refine for heating oil before fall and winter seasons. But the real story will be NG, and more people heat with NG in the US than with heating oil! Brrrrr…….
Dain Rauscher Wessels Poll Shows Energy Executives Expect Oil, Gas Prices to Remain High Through 2001
HOUSTON, Sep 20, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Gas, oil and natural gas prices should remain high for the next year, energy experts predicted in the second annual Dain Rauscher Wessels Energy Prices Survey. Buoyed by the highest gas and natural gas prices on record, energy experts predicted that energy prices will remain near the current levels and energy company stocks will remain good investments, according to the poll that was conducted at the eighth annual Dain Rauscher Wessels Energy Conference in Houston. By comparison, one year ago survey respondents were more skeptical about energy prices remaining high and predicted that oil prices would drop in the year 2000. "Optimism is very high in the energy sector," said Jim Wicklund, managing director and head of energy research at Dain Rauscher Wessels. "This is a group that has seen this market through many ups and downs. For energy investors and executives to be this bullish is quite a statement about prices." Wicklund pointed to many reasons for this optimism -- OPEC solidarity, a booming world economy and slowing worldwide production.
Oil prices were predicted to retreat slightly from the current price of $36.52 per barrel to $32.70 by the end of this year with an average price for the year 2001 placed at $28.80. By comparison, the price of a barrel of oil one year ago was $24. "The recovery we saw in the oil patch one year ago is in full swing," Wicklund said. The poll also found that the vast majority of respondents believed that crude oil production would increase over the next year by an average of 3.0 percent. The energy experts were confident about investing in oil stocks, as measured by the Oilfield Service Index (OSX). A majority of respondents predicted that the OSX would continue to outperform the S&P 500 over the next year. And they predicted the OSX would move up slightly from the current 133 to 137.9 by the end of the year and to 147 by the end of the year 2001. "If you look back, the index is nearly triple its low point of 47.4 on March 1, 1999, so there is definitely optimism that the current recovery will continue," Wicklund said. When asked about the price of natural gas, respondents predicted the price would increase from the current $5.28 per million cubic feet to $5.50 at the end of this year. They also predicted the price would drop back to $4.60 by the end of 2001. By comparison, one year ago, the price stood at $2.68 per million cubic feet.
"Natural gas continues to be the commodity people are most bullish about," Wicklund said.
The group also took a stab at the next merger companies. For the second year running, Chevron and Texaco were the favorite pair for a successful marriage of oil companies. More than 30 companies made the list, but those two companies were included in more than 20 percent of the survey responses. On the individual stock front, the group was asked to give the best energy stock returns over the next year. Key Energy Group and Exxon-Mobil led the group, followed closely by Enron. "That's lofty company for Key Energy, but it has outperformed the other two over the past year, giving it an edge on momentum," Wicklund said. Attendees were also asked to predict the presidential race. Not surprisingly, George W. Bush came out on top, but his margin was a relatively slim 53 percent to 47 percent for Al Gore. "That doesn't overwhelm anyone with confidence in Gov. Bush," Wicklund said. The poll was taken of 135 energy participants including industry experts, company representatives, and institutional investors who came together at the Dain Rauscher Wessels Energy Conference for a four-day conference about the industry's future. Respondents were asked eight questions about oil and gas prices, stock performance and energy companies likely to merge.
Black Blade: These are the industry insiders, so if they say the price will remain high, then who am I to dispute it. OK, maybe I do dispute the NG price as a bit low. I expect a colder winter this time around and the El Ni--o and La Ni--a cycles have ended so it should likely be back to normal.
Meanwhile, S&P Futures down -4.00, Fair Value down -3.28, reflecting a downward bias at the open on Wall Street, as world markets were mostly lower overnight. Brent North Sea oil down -$0.07 at $33.03/bbl, and NG (Nov.) is at $5.39 Mbtu. Au id up $1.10 at $269.50 and likely to edge higher (no real news to beat it down today), Ag is up a penny, Pt down -$6.00, and Pd is down 2 bucks.
HappyGoldLucky
(9/21/2000; 6:21:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37098)
Thanks for the reply, Shifty.
Sounds like trading the basic coins (Gold Eagle, Maple Leaf, Krugerrand, etc) isn't as complicated as I thought.
Canuck
(9/21/2000; 5:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 37097)
Good morning
Good morning to all. Happy Birthday to USAGOLD and thank you Mr. Kosares.
And thank you New York for the savings yesterday, please knock the POG a couple more bucks today. If fact pound it all you want; buy an ounce of gold get a 5 oz. bar of silver free, or a 10 oz., beat it up and get a 20oz. for free.
Averaging down, 'buying the dips', call it what you want, I'm shopping today!!
So please New York, assist me with my 'currency conversion'
plan and thanks. Bring POG down enough to bankrupt some more miners, eliminate supply, get those CB's to 'cash out'.
NOTE:
I hope everyone saw the IMF dude's quote yesterday; something along the line of "... introvention in the EURO must take place soon, otherwise the dollar/Euro rebound will be all the more turmultulous..."
The exact quote was posted earlier by an astute USAGOLD poster.
Stretch that slingslot man, stretch it some more.
Awaiting W.A.(2).......
'Shorting the dollar' (a la Ari) = Get some gold.
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 4:48:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 37096)
oct 1 begins
new fiscal year in european union.
The timing is right now.
wolavka
(9/21/2000; 4:27:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37095)
Good read aristotle
40 years +, same amount of time since americans have won a gold metal in olympics in weightlifting.
Bulgarians 152 # class set world record snatch 360+ and c&j @ 430+.
Seems americans are weak physically and mentally. Most shun gold and not only @ olympics.
Time for some new leadership in usa, start with the gold.
SHIFTY
(9/21/2000; 4:16:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 37094)
HappyGoldLucky
Q...are coins with 0.999 gold content preferred over 0.916?
I prefer the .999, but that's me. I own a mixed bag and like them all.
Q....does the condition of the coin (from visible scratches to almost invisible hair lines) matter for the resale value of basic coin types?
I'm sure a rare coin is worth more in perfect shape. I had a 1oz gold Maple Leaf that had a small flat spot on one edge where it was drooped. I paid full price for it because I wanted the coin. When I needed to sell a coin , I sold that one. I got full price for it.
Q....is the 1 oz preferred, or are mixed sizes recommended?
I own more small coins. They cost me more per oz. but I figured if gold was to go way up it would be more affordable for someone to buy a small coin over the larger.
Hope I was of some help.
Back to bed.
$hifty
HappyGoldLucky
(9/21/2000; 4:06:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37093)
Aristotle's belated reply to Triffin
Isn't it even simpler than that?
GOLD IS NOBODIES LIABILITY
PAPER REPRESENTS SOMEONE ELSES LIABILITY
Do you want your money based on someone elses liability, or do you want it "free and clear" of any liability?
That's what it boils down to, pretty much.
SteveH
(9/21/2000; 3:56:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 37092)
Englanders can't protect their gold...
Dano2000
We hear about "the truth" every day, but most people do not speak the truth:
they speak their "beliefs". Here are the facts..
By Robert A. Waters - 06.23.00
You're sound asleep when you hear a thump outside your bedroom door.
Half-awake, and nearly paralyzed with fear, you hear muffled whispers. At
least two people have broken into your house and are moving your way. With
your heart pumping, you reach down beside your bed and pick up your shotgun.
You rack a shell into the chamber, then inch toward the door and open it. In
the darkness, you make out two shadows. One holds something that looks like a
crowbar. When the intruder brandishes it as if to strike, you raise the
shotgun and fire. The blast knocks both thugs to the floor. One writhes and
screams while the second man crawls to the front door and lurches outside. As
you pick up the telephone to call police, you know you're in trouble. In your
country, most guns were outlawed years before, and the few that are privately
owned are so stringently regulated as to make them useless. Yours was never
registered. Police arrive and inform you that the Second burglar has died.
They arrest you for First Degree Murder and Illegal Possession of a Firearm.
When you talk to your attorney, he tells you not to worry: authorities will
probably plea the case down to manslaughter. "What kind of sentence will I
get?" you ask. "Only ten-to-twelve years," he replies, as if that's nothing.
"Behave yourself, and you'll be out in seven. The next day, the shooting is
the lead story in the local newspaper. Somehow, you're portrayed as an
eccentric vigilante while the two men you shot are represented as choirboys.
Their friends and relatives can't find an unkind word to say about them.
Buried deep down in the article, authorities acknowledge that both "victims"
have been arrested numerous times. But the next day's headline says it all:
"Lovable Rogue Son Didn't Deserve to Die." The thieves have been transformed
from career Criminals into Robin Hood-type pranksters. As the days wear on,
the story takes wings. The national media picks it up, then the international
media. The surviving burglar has become a folk hero. Your attorney says the
thief is preparing to sue you, and he'll probably win. The media publishes
reports that your home has been burglarized several times in the past and
that you've been critical of local police for their lack of effort in
apprehending the suspects. After the last break-in, you told your neighbor
that you would be prepared next time. The District Attorney uses this to
allege that you were lying in wait for the burglars. A few months later, you
go to trial. The charges haven't been reduced, as your lawyer had so
confidently predicted. When you take the stand, your anger at the injustice
of it all works against you. Prosecutors paint a picture of you as a mean,
vengeful man. It doesn't take long for the jury to convict you of all
charges. The judge sentences you to life in prison.
This case really happened. On August 22, 1999, Tony Martin of Emneth,
Norfolk, England, killed one burglar and wounded a second. In April, 2000, he
was convicted and is now serving a life term. How did it become a crime to
defend one's own life in the once great British Empire? It started with the
Pistols Act of 1903. This seemingly reasonable Law forbade selling pistols to
minors or felons and established that handgun sales were to be made only to
those who had a license. The Firearms Act of 1920 expanded licensing to
include not only handguns but all firearms except shotguns. Later laws passed
in 1953 and 1967 outlawed the carrying of any Weapon by private citizens and
mandated the registration of all shotguns. Momentum for total handgun
confiscation began in earnest after the Hungerford mass shooting in 1987.
Michael Ryan, a mentally disturbed man with an AK-47 style rifle, walked down
the streets shooting everyone he saw. When the smoke cleared, 17 people were
dead.The British public, already de-sensitized by eighty years of "gun
control", demanded even tougher restrictions. (The seizure of all privately
owned handguns was the objective even though Ryan used a rifle). Nine years
later, at Dunblane, Scotland, Thomas Hamilton used a semi-automatic weapon to
murder 16 children and a teacher at a public school. For many years, the media
had portrayed all gun owners as mentally unstable, or worse, criminals. Now
the press had a real kook with which to beat up law-abiding gun owners. Day
after day, week after week, the media gave up all pretense of objectivity and
demanded a total ban on all handguns. The Dunblane Inquiry, a few months
later, sealed the fate of the few sidearms still owned by private citizens.
During the years in which the British government incrementally took away most
gun rights, the notion that a citizen had the right to armed self-defense
came to be seen as vigilantism. Authorities refused to grant gun licenses to
people who were threatened, claiming that self-defense was no longer
considered a reason to own a gun. Citizens who shot burglars, or robbers or
rapists were charged while the real criminals were released. Indeed, after
the Martin shooting, a police spokesman was quoted as saying, "We cannot have
people take the law into their own hands." All of Martin's neighbors had been
robbed numerous times, and several elderly people were severely injured in
beatings by young thugs who had no fear of the consequences. Martin himself,
a collector of antiques, had seen most of his collection trashed or stolen by
burglars. When the Dunblane Inquiry ended, citizens who owned handguns were
given three months to turn them over to local authorities. Being good British
subjects, most people obeyed the law. The few who didn't were visited by
police and threatened with ten-year prison sentences if they didn't comply.
Police later bragged that they'd taken nearly 200,000 handguns from private
citizens. How did the authorities know who had handguns? The guns had been
registered and licensed. Kinda like cars. Sound familiar?
WAKE UP AMERICA, THIS IS WHY OUR FOUNDING FATHERS PUT THE SECOND AMENDMENT IN
OUR CONSTITUTION.
"..it does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless
minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds.."
Samuel Adams
Aristotle
(9/21/2000; 3:50:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 37091)
It's been 40 years in need of rebuttal -- let's offer one now
In 1961 Professor Robert Triffin of Yale University scored a cheap yet unanswered point against Gold and society when he remarked, "Nobody could ever have conceived of a more absurd waste of human resources than to dig Gold in distant corners of the earth for the sole purpose of transporting it and reburying it immediately afterwards in other deep holes, especially excavated to receive it and heavily guarded to protect it." The implication is that petty emotion has somehow and unnecessarily prevailed over logic where Gold is concerned.
Being one who recognizes and advocates the institutional and individual use of Gold as the supreme wealth/savings/reserve asset, it is my personal challenge to root out and undermine the "street credibility" of all such anti-Gold propaganda--whether it be the classic material frequently cited through the years (e.g. Triffin's quote) or the anti-Gold spinning of modern financial reporters.
To the impressionalble casual observer and casual thinker (such as we find in the mainstream of society), Professor Triffin's clever soundbite certainly appears to depants Gold, leaving us all to feel rather red-faced and foolish. However, only slightly less superficial thought is required from a full and living perspective to knock his notion off base -- it being the vulnerable product of an incomplete context.
Let's adjust our minds now for a worldly and timeless view as we prepare to recognize clearly the error in Triffin's reproach of mankind about our dealings with the king of metals, Gold. So now, if you are ready with your worldly mindset, please consider the following context to build an understanding for life.
Unless Mr. Triffin (or a contemporary) has mastered the art of time travel to alter human history, what is to be gained by questioning the necessary course of our socio-economic evolution? Triffin's monetary lament not withstanding, the simple fact is that we frail humans would mine Gold anyway and continue to incur the costs of transportation and safekeeping. Why? Because we have come to value it highly as the singularly suitable monetary/wealth asset -- an outcome of it being an integral factor in our natural and beneficial development toward and utilization of productive specialization and division of labor. Why must we fight against Nature? Must a leopard change his spots?
In this vein of thought, we recognize that it would have been just as foolish for professor Triffin to call into question the early migration of man from tropical climates to colder latitudes -- being an act which then necessitated the "absurd waste of human resources" in the digging of coal, the gathering of firewood, or the pumping of oil from distant lands only to be transported and burned into nothingness as a substitute for warmth that the sun would freely provide to "wiser" men remaining in the tropics.
But to more fully indulge Triffin's well-known yet scarcely refutted nonsensical soundbite, we could just as easily suggest to him, "Professor, what you say about Gold is true! It WOULD be difficult to conceive of a more absurd waste of human resources, that is, EXCEPT for our CURRENT paper/digital credit-based system of banking and accounting wherein men fabricate numbers (in the form of abstract accounting "units") amongst themselves, pre-occupying the remainder of their frail and timid lives in the effort to "earn back" the numbers they've borrowed -- or else face consequences for their inability to secure the required quantity of these abstract numbers. It is surely absurd to employ millions of man-hours to dote upon with austerity these abstract yet apparently life-giving numbers. Why not simply make them freely available to all who are in need, and then worry not a moment about their payback?"
But no. Even I would admit such a comment as that to be a reckless statement, as certainly was Professor Triffin's. The truth is, when taken out of its worldly human context in the form of incomplete "soundbite" descriptions, ALL currency/monetary dealings -- no matter how perfect and efficient they may serve their specialized purpose -- will appear "absurd" to the practical yet hasty thinker who sees only the objective ends, and not the means to the ends. No one promised that life on earth would be easy, or that the answers would be spoonfed to us. We must all remain prepared to think in broadest context for ourselves -- with a little help from our friends.
Allow me to be Contrary Triffin--
Gold: useful when under lock and key; worthless until the human process gets it there. Get you some. ---Aristotle
HappyGoldLucky
(9/21/2000; 2:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37090)
Gold medal contest & questions
Gold medals (incl. January 21, 2000)
1. USA 11
2-3 Australia 7
2-3. China 7
BTW, I repeat my question(s) about buying gold coins, in the hope some poster can answer.
...are coins with 0.999 gold content preferred over 0.916?
....does the condition of the coin (from visible scratches to almost invisible hair lines) matter for the resale value of basic coin types?
....is the 1 oz preferred, or are mixed sizes recommended?
TIA
Topaz
(9/21/2000; 2:14:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 37089)
.......well,, how was the Opening Ceremony?
First chance to check things out at the Forum for over a Week and was pleasantly surprised to find all the goings-on, contests etc. to celebrate the 2nd Anniversary of the "gathering" here at USAgold.
Many happy returns MK, Townie, Jeff et-al. The contest entries up-to-date have indeed captured the spirit of Global intelligence, intrigue and good-cheer as intended by yourselves "only" 2 yr's ago and the carefully crafted improvements to both the Forum and Site in general have made it easier-n-easier to keep coming back.
Well- back to the Olympics.
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 2:07:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37088)
Comments from API Pres. Cavaney, and Petroleum Issues
Petroleum Supply is a Very Complicated Issue!
Energy strategy
American Petroleum Institute Pres. Red Cavaney says the US needs to open a discussion on drafting a national energy strategy. He told a National Association of State Energy Officials meeting in California that there is a widening gap between the growing energy demands of the economy and the country's ability to meet those needs from its own resources. "If we are to reverse this troublesome trend, our nation must develop a more contemporary energy policy. Few subjects will be more important for the new president and the Congress when they take office in January."
Cavaney said the current economic boom has changed the political climate in Washington and made it possible to
focus on a budget surplus rather than a deficit. "There is, however, a neglected side in the economic reverie,"
Cavaney said. "In spite of the bountiful prosperity available to us, we -- as a country -- have chosen not to address some chronic needs essential to the continued improvements in our nation's quality of life."
Shortages
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
He said gasoline supply and price problems in the Midwest this summer and earlier heating oil concerns in the Northeast show "that our nation has fallen short of addressing our energy challenges in a sustainable, strategic fashion." Cavaney said it has been a quarter century since the country broadly debated its energy policies and, while they may have been satisfactory for those times, "we have a very, very different world today."
He said the oil and gas industry would want a minimum of four elements in an energy policy: greater access to
resources on federal lands, onshore and off; an end to unilateral sanctions that ban US companies from operating in some nations; a balanced approach to environmental regulations that considers the nation's energy needs; and expedited permitting for the construction and modernization of refineries, pipelines, and other facilities. A few weeks ago, the National Association of Manufacturers also called for a federal energy policy.
The political climate
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For many years, the US has had an informal energy policy: reliance on cheap foreign oil. The Clinton administration has also tried to promote the use of renewable fuels and encourage use of natural gas, which is cleaner burning than oil or coal.
In 1999, the cheap oil policy worked pretty well. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries outproduced demand. Consumers bought gasoline at rock-bottom prices, and the economy soared. Only pinched domestic oil producers were suggesting the nation needed an overriding energy plan.
A spurt in home heating oil prices in New England last winter and sharply higher gasoline prices across the nation this summer have flipped the energy policy debate. Now Congress and consumers are lamenting the need for an energy policy.
Energy has not been a major issue in the US presidential campaign. Gasoline supplies are adequate, and prices have dropped. But there are public relations problems on the horizon. This fall consumers will feel the bite of sharply higher natural gas prices. Home heating oil prices also will be higher. Home heating price rises usually anger consumers more deeply than gasoline and diesel fuel price jumps: Winter warmth is essential.
When the next Congress begins work in January, it currently appears that one of the hottest issues waiting for it will be public anger over winter fuel costs and supply. That will launch inquiries into US energy strategy -- or the lack of it. Producers have a lot at stake in such a debate, and API is smart to get the issue in the open as soon as possible.
Omnibus energy bill
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Also in September, the Senate is unlikely to pass an omnibus energy bill designed to decrease US dependence on oil imports from 56% presently to 50% by the year 2010. The Republican bill would allow leasing on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska and let states assume the regulation of federal oil and gas leases. The bill permits producers a tax credit of up to $3/bbl or 50 cents/Mcf to prevent low prices from causing marginal wells to be shut in. And it would let producers expense their geological and geophysical costs for wells and
expense delay rental payments when they defer drilling. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) said he would bring the bill to the Senate floor in September.
Heating oil reserve
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
By October, the US Department of Energy will establish a temporary 2 million bbl northeastern US home heating oil reserve. President Bill Clinton ordered the action and also asked Congress to create a permanent heating oil stockpile and set terms for its use. DOE has accepted bids for the tankage and supply of the 2 million bbl reserve. Winning bidders will be paid in crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve site at West Hackberry, La. Meanwhile, Energy Sec. Bill Richardson has assured New England heating oil distributors the reserve will be used only for
emergency purposes and not price manipulation.
ANWR monument
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This fall President Bill Clinton could designate the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain as a national monument. Rep. Don Young (R-Alas.) has asked Clinton to confirm or deny those rumors. Young is chairman of the House Resources Committee, which has jurisdiction over federal lands. Clinton reportedly is considering using his powers under the 1906 Antiquities Act to declare a monument on ANWR's coastal plain, preventing any future development. The coastal plain east of Prudhoe Bay field is believed to contain large oil reserves but cannot be leased unless authorized by Congress. Young said the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act mandates that only Congress can designate monuments, wilderness areas, and refuges on federal lands in Alaska.
Diesel sulfur
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
By December, the Environmental Protection Agency plans to issue a final rule to cut the sulfur content in diesel fuel 97% from the current 500 ppm to 15 ppm. It said diesel must be significantly cleaner-burning to ensure that truck and bus pollution-control technology is effective. The American Petroleum Institute warned EPA that the rule will cause shortages. It said, "The refining industry is unable to produce sufficient 15 ppm sulfur diesel, nor can our distribution system supply it across the country."
Topaz
(9/21/2000; 1:32:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 37087)
###### GOLD MEDAL GUESS######
Too late I feel------been too busy!
U.S.A. ..........12
Aust. ...........10
China. ..........7
Black Blade
(9/21/2000; 0:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 37086)
re: Peter Asher #37080
It's a shame that a so-called director at the Cato Institute (Libertarian think tank) would not bother to let himself become confused with facts. Obviously Jerry does not understand the difference between "resources" and "reserves." Oil "resources" are finite and yet there are several years worth of "resources" available, albeit at higher costs of production, and whether the majority of it can be economically recoverable or not is somewhat debatable. Jerry is right about a couple of things though. The refinery capacity is the most pressing issue at present. If Saudi can squeeze their extra 2million barrel/day out of their wells, they must find it a home (Though I dispute Jerry's data of an extra 6 million barrels). No refinery will hold it if the price of oil can retract and therefore they lose profits, and refineries are not going to hold this oil so that they can have the privilege of paying "inventory taxes." That said, It is true that we have large "resources", but it will require much higher prices to turn these "resources" into "reserves" in order to make recovery and production profitable. So you see, right now it is more a problem of a bottleneck at the refinery level coupled with Saudi being the only player left with any real excess capacity. Then we can get into a debate over oil grade, etc. which adds another whole layer of problems to an already complex issue. The excess production could probably be extracted for low cost as Jerry suggests, although the refining costs are much higher than the Light Sweet Crude that is produced in the Gulf of Mexico (I don't know where Jerry comes up wit $1.50/bbl production). Once we start to proceed into "Non-conventional" oil sources such as Tar Sands, and Oil Shales. Then we have to deal with the environmental issues and world-renowned scientists like Al Gore (Inventor of the Internet), Robert Redford, Ted and Jane Turner, etc., and all the other "beautiful people" who would oppose production from these "resources." Jerry parrots the same old line that energy isn't important anymore. This same data based on oil being 9% of the GDP in the 1970’ vs. 3% today of course is entertaining but it is also misleading. Let us cut back on oil production and then we will see just exactly how unimportant oil is to the economy. Tell that to anyone who had to wait in gas lines in the 1970's or anyone who was affected by Europe's recent refinery blockades. He also suggests that by delivering SPR oil to the market would dramatically drop oil prices. Probably would in the short term. Who needs a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for silly things like national defense anyway. Besides, a commensurate drop in oil production by almost any producer would be easy to do. Even Iraq could negate the effects of delivering SPR oil to market. I don't really think it would make a difference, but the whole point of having strategic reserves (oil or metals) are for a temporary emergency supply in the event of war. But silly me, I should have known that cheap oil is a God-given right that should be "shared" by all, even if it means that we take advantage of smaller countries in the process. How dare they demand to make a profit, after all, we're Americans Dammit!
BTW, Algeria is now stating that they will increase oil production. I don't think that their whole extra half-barrel will do much good, but what the hell. The IEA stated that there is 7% excess capacity in OPEC. I'm sure that is news to OPEC. Besides, no one in the industry has taken the IEA seriously for years, as they have been wrong and missed targets about the oil industry inventories and refinery capacity for years. The focus of G-7 talks this weekend is on OPEC and oil. The near contract for oil expired today at $37.20/bbl and NG is at $5.39 Mbtu (Nov. contract).
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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