gold coins and bullion
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc: Serving Gold Coin & Bullion Investors Since 1973
Open for business 6am to 6pm Mountain Time
(Home Page) (How to Buy Gold) (Gold Coin Images) (Daily Market Report) (Live Gold Price)
(First-time Buyers) (Gold Discussion) (ABCs of Gold Book) (Gold IRA) (Buy Gold Coins Online)
(European Clientele)

Online Information Packet
(About Us)

 

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.

The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

 

FORUM ARCHIVES
Select date of the archive you wish to view

Month Day Year
Archives date back to September 22, 1998




WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!
(MAIN) (Post a New Message)

(Forum Archives - Hall of Fame)

(Gold Trail - Thoughts!)

(View Today's Discussion) (View Previous Day's Discussion) (View Next Day's Discussion)

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/21/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Peter Asher (05/21/00; 23:57:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 30994)
JavaMan #985

Most people who buy new homes other than starters, already have a home that they live in. In a recession, they can stay put, if they don't get kicked out by forclorsure, that is. The only thing that crashes faster than the Stock market is the middle and upper-end home market. It's not so much of a price drop as it is a situation of NO BUYERS! The whole Real Estate world grinds to a halt. A year after the ‘87 crash, I heard that the Long Island North Shore Real Estate Offices had a 90% failure rate.

Now if you are a believer in a hyper-inflationary recession such as the ‘70's, then maybe a home would be a good value haven, BUT it should be in sound location that is not "Hot" due to the current "Easy Money"



SHIFTY (05/21/00; 23:29:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 30993)
FOA / Trail Guide
Looking foward to the next outing on the gold trail!

Black Blade (05/21/00; 23:20:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 30992)
Marius - Difference between Government and Organized Crime, Elwood
Marius, The only difference that I've seen between the Government and the Mafia is this: When you breaks the rules, the Government steals your possessions and puts you into a cage or uses you for prison (slave) labor, while the Mafia breaks your legs or whacks you. You pay protection money to the Government (taxes/extortion) and protection money to the Mafia (extortion). There you have it. Both enforce a set of laws, and both steal from you.

Elwood, Interesting post. However, I never saw the movie "Rollover". I just can't bring myself to watch anything starring "Hanoi Jane". She should have been tried as a traitor and either executed or imprisoned for life. She gave aid and comfort to the enemy, and is arguably responsible for at least 6 American POW deaths as a result of one of her visits to North Vietnam during the alledged "Police Action".


Solomon Weaver (05/21/00; 23:18:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 30991)
A few thoughts on THCs banishment
MK (USA GOLD)

1st thought: I consider this site to be the private property of Centennial Precious Metals and that you are the ultimate authority.

2nd thought: As you mentioned in your Internet 101 post, there are interesting challenges to using this new media, not only to "openly discuss gold ownership", but also to sell gold.

3rd thought: The mention that THC made of eBay is for an "auction site" which does not compete with your company, and yet represents one of the most interesting pioneers in getting buyers and sellers together on all kinds of unusual items.

4th thought: To someone just beginning to buy precious metal coins, there is an immense amount of questions which can arise related to coin type (legal tender vs. commemorative), quality, rarity, acceptable premiums, actual content, historical price performance, etc. It also depends a lot on the number of dollars one wants to invest, and the "reasons" for investing. If your site is going to be an educational site on gold ownership, I think we need to feel that it is safe to discuss the way coins are priced, and perhaps that means an open discussion of where information about coin pricing is found on the internet.

5th thought: You are not typically promoting your products on the page, but by adding your German Mark promotion into the daily report, and having Town Crier highlight it as well, you brought this very issue onto the middle of the roundtable...and the roundtable tends to be a wild place sometimes...I saw THC as someone who was seeing too much the bullion side of the story and not enough the numismatic side...because the real message is that to someone who has been in the gold market a long time, it is phenomenal how low the premiums are on all pre-1933 European 20 Franc and Mark coins (compared for example to newly minted 1/4 oz gold Eagle).

6th thought: It is common behavior on the internet to post the URL for information purposes. One one hand, this is important because it creates credibility (allows readers to go back to the source of discussion). I do not personally believe that providing a URL should be equated with "promoting" a site. For example, THC will not personally benefit from anyone who visits the URL he posted. This is different than if I were to try to use your forum to get readers to notice a business I am involved in, particularly if it were a business selling PMs.

7th thought: Not knowing what "off site" emails have exchanged, I consider that THC should still be welcomed as a poster here.....perhaps it should be general that the "pricing details" and "product related questions" for your products are handled via direct email and should not appear as posts.

Seven is a magic number...so I think that's enough for tonight...

Best wishes....and sure appreciate what we all have here...

Poor old Solomon


Elwood (5/21/2000; 22:49:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 30990)
Rugen (5/21/2000; 7:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 30940)
Gold Leasing Jigsaw Puzzle Part 2.

Central Banker leases to a Bullion Bank 1 tonne of gold. Instead of physical delivery the CB issues a gold certificate backed by its reserves. The tonnes and tonnes of leased gold that we've all been hearing about still sits in central bank vaults. It must be this way because it doesn't make sense for these central bankers to have delivered that much physical. The Euro crowd just isn't that naive. All or nearly all of the physical flow that we've seen from the Fed's earmarked accounts is from sales, either announced or not. The dollar forces delivered (sold) their physical in a losing game to defend the dollar. The few Euro Zone sales that went through the paper markets may have been "pump priming" to start/keep the game going.

The Bullion Bank takes the Central Bank's gold certificate, and sells it in the open market for cash or other marketable items. In Trail Guide's scenario the other marketable item is oil in the ground, and this whole system was set up to buy time for the establishment of the Euro and to further inflate the dollar (a "two-birds-with-one-stone" thing).

The Arab doesn't want the paper, but with physical supplies being so tight he accepts the paper and issues paper of his own in payment, the claim to oil in the ground.

Now, the Bullion Bank is on the hook for delivery of 2 tonnes of physical gold: 1 to the Central Bank in repayment plus interest and 1 to the Arab. The Arab will only deliver his oil if the physical gold is delivered. In this case the BB has only sold the gold once. In cases in which the BB sells the gold more than just the one time the paper trail becomes even more complex.

The Bullion Bank takes the oil receivables he got from the Arab and mortgages them in order to buy the future delivery of the gold miners. However, he also needs the gold miner to sell more than what the oil derivatives will bring since the bank needs physical to repay the original loan. So the Bullion Banker convinces the miners to sell gold call options to fund even more forward sale commitments. Recently, however, we've seen many miners stepping away from forward sales after they saw what happened to Ashanti and Cambior.

See how both the Bullion Banks and the miners are exposed to any rapid rise in the price of gold? The terms of the original central bank lease may or may not specify cash settlement under certain conditions, however, anyone who purchases the certificate must understand that the central banker does not have the authority to deliver that gold. Therefore, under any default situation they must understand that the CB will settle in cash. I think Trail Guide's view is that the Euro forces will use this cash settlement opportunity to expand the Euro currency and replace the dollar as the world's primary paper reserve asset.

With this huge paper float out there, it's obvious that most of them have been rolling over their gold receivables as they become due. Anyone ever seen that 1980-81 movie: "Rollover" with Jane Fonda and Kris Kristofferson?

Trail Guide, when you say that the WA agreement had no provisions for "gold to cover" on existing contracts, do you mean that the rollovers are ending? It seems that in the panic which followed the WA, much was, in fact, rolled over to longer terms.

When the game ends there will be 4 classes of gold "investors":

1. Arabs. These guys are in the best position possible. They are sitting on a valuable asset that can be traded for anything. They will have the choice of trading their certificates for gold or cash. The gold will come from that "fund" created by the Swiss and other sales. This is what Trail Guide means when he speaks of bringing oil to the Euro.

2. Physical gold advocates (us). We may not be sitting on assets piled as high as the Arabs, but almost.

3. Holders of Euro bank certificates. Non-oil producer buyers of these certificates won't get a choice, but they will get the best currency for their certificates. Seems there are some countries like China that hold these certificates (as well as more than their official physical) which will enable them to survive the destruction of their dollar reserves. They probably used some of those dollar reserves to buy the certificates.

4. Holders of Dollar bank certificates, that is, certificates issued by central banks that are not in the Euro Zone. These people will be in the same boat as traders of options and futures. They may get cash, but it will be dollars that will have little value.

The Washington Agreement was the signal to everyone that the gold-dollar expansion is ended. Now we're just waiting for someone to default on a gold payment. This will require someone else to refuse to roll over a paper commitment. When that happens the bullion banks and the hedged miners will rush to cover their short positions, and the moonshot will be under way. A question arises: Why didn't they just let it run when the WA was announced instead of helping the Americans deal with the crisis? Answer: They don't want to be seen as the ones who destroyed the dollar. They need to have the dollar forces default of their own accord. Wars have started over much less.

The whole game is being coordinated through the BIS and ECB. The Americans are in reaction mode. I believe that as long as the Americans find a way to deliver satisfactory amounts then it will continue. This amount appears to be in excess of the 80 to 100 tonnes per month they've been delivering since the WA panic. The rising price of oil indicates that Arabian oil is being withheld against some non-deliveries of physical gold. I used to be hung up on the question of what the Euro banks will do with their dollar reserves, but does it really matter? If your barn burns and your insurance company replaces its loss with a better one, are you better or worse for the fire over the long run? It's a sure bet that there aren't many emotional attachments to the dollar out there.

Trail Guide, are we getting warmer? Is the jigsaw picture taking shape? The image appears to me as something yellow and very valuable.

If all of this is true then, people, we are about to witness events of extreme historic significance.
Elwood


Marius (5/21/2000; 22:35:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 30989)
Journeyman & MK
MK,

You are a tolerant and genial host, and I sympathize with you feeling bad about having to put your foot down. Who can say why one of the herd occasionally goes loco? You did what you had to do. Don't indulge in letting a bad taste linger! The forum is worthwhile, and you don't need to defend your actions.

Journeyman,

Thanks so much for sharing your experiences with the Russian mob. You make an old outlaw smile. I love to trot this out at parties: what's the difference between government and organized crime? Organized crime doesn't insult your intelligence by claiming to act to protect you from yourself.

Fondly,

M


aunuggets (5/21/2000; 22:20:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 30988)
USAGold #30972
MK and others....

First, let me make clear that I do not and would not condone outside advertisers coming to this site or any other with the intent of undermining CPM or other business ventures. But it has been clear to many that the "spin" being placed on this debate continues to be aimed at thwarting the true issues. And now, in so many words, others are "liars" for sharing factual information concerning certain coin premiums, specificly those of like European pre-1933 gold coins at near melt. Anyone disputing that such is possible is more than welcome to contact me privately for the URL of that supplier, as I will not stoop to pasting it here. However, those coins were indeed advertised at less than one dollar over melt value within the past week. Whether the "same coins" as MK offers, I don't know, but pre-1933 European coins without a doubt.

As far as the 8% premiums on 1/10 ounce Eagle gold coins, those were 5-19-00 quotes. Prices also included shipping at minimum order levels....no added charges....the math is simple as pie.

The 98 percent buy-back figure quoted from those given by many dealers across the U.S. had nothing to do with Y2K sell offs as claimed. Those figures have been in place for many a year, and somewhat "standard" in the industry.

But in the end, all of this is really moot to the real concerns that some either haven't taken note of, or simply chose to ignore. MK himself hit briefly on just that issue in his last post.... "Credibility".

All of this started out, I believe, as a simple inquiry as to the "spread" on the coins in question. A legitimate question for anyone concerned with the "liquidity" of such an investment I would think. The "no outside advertising" policy of the forum should have been obvious to anyone familiar to any degree with the forum. Perhaps, however, better communication and handling of the "situation" might have been more in order than short-tempered banishment when such actions only tend to make things worse for all concerned. A natural instinctive reaction to to question "what do the parties have to hide", and that speaks not so well for both sides of the issue.

If openness, honesty, freedom, truth, and just as importantly, "accuracy of information" is either unwelcome or blatantly shunned, then of course there will be some who question the credibility of those involved. Who cares how much profit CPM makes per transaction, per coin, or per million ? That is no ones business but the owners, and as others have pointed out, no one is being "forced" into a purchase by any stretch of the imagination. What didn't set right with some was very simply the "perception" of not being quite aboveboard or shunning simple common sense questions by present or prospective buyers. And now, the off-cuff remarks as to the credibility of others who have only attempted to help fill in the blanks by providing "accurate" information to those who have asked certainly does nothing to improve on the credibility issue.

Perhaps the "support" MK mentions coming from the business factions is to be commended, as only those of us engaged in our own business truly understand the concerns of CPMs plight. However, I believe some of the same factions have been those asking the questions, and were simply frustrated by the lack of intelligible answers. THC's simple post giving attention to a particular coin on eBay may have been greatly exagerated out of context as a deliberate violation of forum policy, but I personally don't believe it was an intentional ploy at garnering publicity for any particular vendor. And again, quickly applied actions in the wake of what may well have been an unintended "flub" really brought about more questions than answers. Competition and propretary concerns aside, the real issue boiled down to open and honest information.



Henri (5/21/2000; 21:27:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 30987)
Journeyman and the "mosquito protection service", and ORO,Elevator Guy
Sir Journeyman
"...This all reminds me through John Doe's nominated post,
Henri's natural order mosquito protection service, etc. ..."

Ha Ha you anticpated my follow-up, I was just mulling over trying to erect a "natural order" monetary system. Can you guess my biggest stumbling block?

Do I cast the common man as the mosquito, or as the bait?

Yes the "old Genghis has been around so long I now consider his services a necessary alternative to an unknown new Genghis. Perhaps I should get out more. Moscow, yes to learn more how the similar structures are arranged elsewhere. I'm far to confortable at the game I think I may know but probably don't. And far too uninformed to be prognosticating new arrangements of the same old order as both you and ORO have been trying to pound into my head.

Nevertheless the engagement is stimulating is it not?

Sir Elevator Guy, I reread your regional currency post and my response and Yes, it does seem I "reamed" you a bit. So sorry, the idea is not without merit and I am guilty again of not following through with my thoughts of why it could be a good experiment along with my negative feelings about it. Each particular brand of currency would have its strengths and weakness (e.g., I would not want to be in the insurance business in the southeast.) It would be an interesting interplay and no doubt the process of the evolution would entail redrawing boundaries and even including Rhode Island or Delaware with Wyoming and Kentucky if only to give them a modicom of export/import exposure.

I do like the idea of an expanded free trade zone...sort of like a little Hong Kong here and there.


JavaMan (5/21/2000; 21:23:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 30986)
P.S. Sancho...
Sorry about that new car thing. Just tell her all this conversation comes with a disclaimer. (smile)

JavaMan (5/21/2000; 21:19:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 30985)
HI - HAT, J-Dude...
Sorry guys, I had to step away for a bit.

HI - HAT: "If I may I'll amend the question to ORO. Is there an edge to have the legal tender notes in hand to satisfy existing contracts (mortgage), or go for the appreciating wealth, gold,.Even though the dollar as defined in the middle of an inflation crack-up, may not be the same "NEW DOLLAR", one would have to convert to from appreciated gold in order to pay debt."

JavaMan: I'd like to see the answer to your question. In addition, I would venture that if one has the dollars "in hand" to satisfy a mortgage, then they should do it.

J-Dude, It looks like the choice to have dollars in hand might also mean having my wife on my back as she doesn't see things as I do quite yet.

Still, I wonder about the value of real estate in such an environment. Does it go up as more dollars chase a fixed number of houses or does it decline as more are laid off, fewer people are able to afford the associated interest rates, etc.?

Bad lightning storm developing. I'm outta here.


Cavan Man (5/21/2000; 20:22:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 30984)
Nikkei
Looks like the beginnings of a bad hair day in Tokyo.

HI - HAT (5/21/2000; 19:40:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 30983)
Journeyman, Java Man, ORO, All
Old Dollar ; New Dollar
O.K.. This is getting to the essence of the original qwestion.

Take individual bank bankruptcy and crack-up boom off the table.

Let's just say national systemic financial Federal "intervention".

The dollars on the books do not really exist. Only the actual legal tender cash does. Having it in hand could be a good thing.

If I may I'll amend the question to ORO. Is there an edge to have the legal tender notes in hand to satisfy existing contracts (mortgage), or go for the appreciating wealth, gold,.Even though the dollar as defined in the middle of an inflation crack-up, may not be the same "NEW DOLLAR", one would have to convert to from appreciated gold in order to pay debt.

In other words if you wait to pay off mortgage with old dollar the new dollar may be one where a hershey bar is 5 cents again. So mortgage pay-off then becomes quite dear.


Al Fulchino (5/21/2000; 19:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 30982)
aunuggets (5/21/2000; 15:15:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 30963)
We are in agreement that everything is relative. Yet note this: In times past you could often see an unbranded gas station selling fuel for say 85 cts a gallon and a major brand might be anywhere from 89 to 1.02. Similar gasoline no doubt, except for proprietary additives, yet the majors often provide better locations, facilities,, lighting and other offerings. Not always but often. And note the percentages. Would you go to one of the major's locations and shout to everyone to go down the street? Doubtful. Not very tactful. Secondly if a sign was posted at the entrance of the station saying you may not advertise any other business while on premises...then you were notified. My point was that this site never said you had to buy the product from them, just that you could not in any way make an advertisement for another site/company. My view is that if the tact had been to comment on various mark up percentages existing period that would be kosher. I think even the owner of this forum would consider that fair game. Though I cannot speak for him.
I run the risk of being considered a hack for the owner, but the view I have taken is exactly how I would handle and see things.

PS One is always free to set up their own site and shout all they want. When I hear people decry free speech on this site, I am reminded that each of us could do just that and even come here and let people know that they exist at www.ihavesomethingtosay.com. I have seen it done.



MarkeTalk (5/21/2000; 18:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 30981)
The times (and markets)--they are a changin'
Let's take a look at recent events and market reactions. Last month's PPI and CPI reflected inflation at about the 12% annualized levels. May's numbers came in lower because oil prices temporarily declined, just in time to coincide with the release of these two highly watched indexes. Isn't interesting how oil prices shot back up to over $30 per barrel once the lower prices were figured into the CPI. I wonder how they fixed that one!

Anyway, this past week we had the trade deficit number and it was close to a record. If we keep up this pace, our trade deficit will be around $360 billion per year or more than $1 billion per day. Translated into common everyday language: The U.S. Treasury needs to pull in over $1 billion per day from foreigners just to keep this whole game going. Now what better way to do this than to keep people invested in U.S. dollars by offering the highest real rates of return in the industrialized world while at the same time the S&P 500 and NASDAQ (and Dow to a lesser extent) are entering bear markets. By definition, the NASDAQ is already in a bear market, having declined by more than 20% from its March high. Alan Greenspan fears a collapse of the U.S. Dollar more than a collapse of the stock market. By hook or by crook, his job is to keep the funds flowing into U.S. debt instruments so America can continue its economic expansion which, in turn, fuels export markets and jobs around the world.

Now with accelerating inflation, rising interest rates and a declining stock market, how long before gold and silver respond? I have answered this question many times on the telephone with my clients here at Centennial. My answer: not long but neither I (nor anyone else) can give an exact date. What interests me is the confluence or synergy of various upcoming turning points. As some of you already know, I kind of like Steve Puetz' "eclipse theory" because it appears to be working again. I also watch the change of seasons (from spring to summer, summer to fall) and key U.S. holidays (Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Labor Day, etc.) for clues. Then I add in the spiritual/religious element of key Christian and Jewish celebrations. Taken together, I am looking for the following: stocks to decline until around June 2-3 (new moon) and then a rally before another vicious decline. Mult-year cycles in gold and silver are now bottoming in this time frame and precious metals could jump at any moment. (Remember how gold exploded $80 higher in one week last September?) I expect an acceleration of inflationary concerns to happen as early as Pentecost (Shavout) on June 9th and most likely after June 21-22 (summer equinox). Couple this with the real prospects for a drought in the U.S. which could equal that of 1983 or 1988 (which will put food prices through the roof) and you have the ingredients for a rip-snorting bull market in the precious metals this summer and through the election. Bottom line: it is time to buy gold now if you haven't done so. Add to your positions at these low prices if you have been thinking about it.


Journeyman (5/21/2000; 18:47:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 30980)
Money in the bank @Javaman, Hi - Hat, Elevator Guy, Sancho

If you're going to have dollar denominated anything during a period of economic crisis, it's best to have them in your hands rather than in the bank.

When the money's in the bank, legally you're an investor in the bank, which means if it goes belly-up, you get in the bankruptcy line with everyone the banks owes, including all the other depositor-investors.

Another trick the banksters use is to lock up your money in a CD or equivalent, promising to pay reasonable interest, but you can only get it out after a "reasonable" period of time - - - like two years. You may or may not actually be able to get the money in two years, but by that time, inflation has reduced your buying power by an enormous amount.

Had you had that money in hand, you could have participated in the "crack-up boom," buying something, anything, with your money before it became worthless.

Remember, though, predicting anything is chancy, let alone a crack-up boom in the world's "reserve currency." Timing's even more difficult -- ah, impossible.

Regards,
Journeyman


HI - HAT (5/21/2000; 18:46:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 30979)
Java Man msg.#30978 No Dollars
The distinction I'm trying to make is that there is "no dollars", in the bank.

The scale of issuance "on the books", as debt or deposits dwarfs to the 10th power what actualy exists as legal tender "SCRIPT".

This goes beyond FDIC, but for sure falls into the Whatever category.


JavaMan (5/21/2000; 18:06:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 30978)
HI - HaT...
Thanks...

I recognize that my dollars in the bank are only as good as the FDIC which is only as good as "whatever".

The question is...what is the outlook for the purchasing power of those dollars over the next year?


Sancho (5/21/2000; 17:43:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 30977)
JavaMan,Elevator Guy
My wife was reading your philosophy over my shoulder. Now she wants a new car. If everyone was trying to beat the rising money tide we would have runaway inflation in a matter of days. However, on the real estate end of things, the government has a rather noxious tendency to assess and raise prroperty taxes in step, if not prior, to expenses. People in financial travail have a concerted effort to gird up one's loins and not let a shekel, peso, or dollar pass. One's home may be relatively stable, compared to time shares, recreational land, and such dogs that will be an economic millstone. Apartments work in theory IF you can get paid.....

Journeyman (5/21/2000; 17:42:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 30976)
ORO kudos long overdue

ORO,

I just realized I haven't expressed my appreciation for the amazing stuff you post here. Guess I've been taking the quadruple A rating nearly everything you post deserves for granted.

Sorry!

Thanx & very high regards,
Journeyman


Journeyman (5/21/2000; 17:37:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 30975)
Nicely done! @USAGOLD #30972 (AU marketing on the Internet 101)



ORO (5/21/2000; 17:28:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 30974)
Henri, Journeyman, the seed of common law
Thanks, Journeyman for the posts. Wonderful stuff.

Henri, I hope Journeyman's comments help you see the point that there is little need for government proper but in the face of other governments. I will add that the territoriality of government, historically, is a result of the particular mafia familly managing to exclude the rest of the mob bosses out of the area. It is simply the fact that when the one mob has complete control in an area it has a monopoly enforced by violence. Once the monopoly is established, the mob calls itself "government" and jacks up its "fee", and starts calling it "taxes". It comes out with all kinds of claims to "legitimacy". The rare "republican" form of government comes from occasions such as the signing of the Magna Charta by the mob bosses and the big boss that could not establish a working monopoly and ended up signing a cartel and profit sharing plan; or the joining of people who had the ability to defend themselves in small groups into a larger one that has better economies of scale.

The common law was a result of such mob organizations joining together for the purpose of arbitration, as Journeyman described so eloquently of his second degree of separation experience. The mobs would use this kind of procedure for internal disagreements, and then progress to use these for trans organizational stress. The principles would be simple, the decisions show consistency, and the working concept of justice is established. When one mob gains the upper hand in a region, it has no use for common law because internal conflict is unlikely to destroy them, and the monopoly mob tries to construct a system where they control the results to their favor using a legal code instead of principle and process.

The legal code is used in order to cut deals with external and internal merchant and financial interests so as to provide the head monopoly mobster with a greater take than would otherwise be given. It would grant "charters" of monopoly to various merchants, trade groups, banks etc..

So... the great ideals with which we view government are the result of a century of government control of education, not related - even in the slightest way - to reality.



HI - HAT (5/21/2000; 17:22:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 30973)
Java Man -- Equity Dollars
[ Substantial Equity dollars sitting in bank[.

This is the tricky part I am trying to get insight from ORO about.

"Dollars in the bank and notes in hand are entirely two different things.

The notes in hand are "Legal Tender". Entries in C-D's, savings acct., money market, and checking are technically not legal tender.

Sure the bank deposits are converted and honored as legal tender when everything is going normal. Emergency measures can kick in new ball-game

In banking law currency in banks falls into a whole complicated affair.

ORO or Town Crier may perhaps be better at explaining it.


USAGOLD (5/21/2000; 17:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 30972)
All: Marketing Gold on the Internet 101

We ran into some unique problems with this our first foray into on-line marketing which we are doing our best to overcome.

First, as we all know the gold price can change rapidly. Since the German 20 mark coin is priced in accordance with movement in the gold price, how do you translate that to the computer screen, then the order form, and finally actual payment without having to take a hit on sudden movement in the gold price? The first inclination is to make the price high enough to cover movement against the seller in the gold price. We didn't do that. We decided to set the price up or down $1 for every $4 move in the gold price. Our starting price was $77 with a gold price of near $280 on the June contract. At a $276, we lowered the price to $76. If June gold goes to $272 we go to $75 etc. It just so happens that at $273 you are just one dollar away from seeing the price lowered another $1 per coin. We did this because there is no effective gold pricing software available for pricing gold items automatically. Since we were doing it manually, we had to make a compromise in the interest of time. What I just described was the compromise we decided on. At $273 dollars the premium is in the 20% range. At $272 it will drop to 19%.

Second, purchases on the internet are by credit card and that adds about 3% to our overall cost in charges from the credit card companies. We have not added these charges to the price for the sake of seeing whether or not people would buy over the internet using an encrypted safe channel -- a system by the way we had to buy from our vendor and substantial programming hours were devoted to establishing.

Third, we are offering various incentives as the buyer increases his or her commitment in order to induce larger purchases. At the 30 coin level, for example, we begin to absorb the $30 shipping and handling charge, plus throw in a 2000 silver eagle with a value of about $8.

With respect to the THC situation, you will note that his post on the German Mark coins was not taken off the board, only his pitch for the E-Bay competitor, and the backhanded slap at Centennial Precious Metals that preceded it. I don't know what causes this sort of attitude -- whether its envy or plain mean-spiritedness, but, folks, we have been in business for nearly 30 years. In that period of time, we have not had so much as a complaint filed against us at the Better Business Bureau -- not a single complaint. We did not come by that on-line approval from the Better Business Bureau because we are a problem -- quite to the contrary.

Aside: Most of the big clearinghouses are now selling the year 2000 Eagle gold coins and we are back to the old, mint generated pricing system. The client will be paying in the 12% to 13% range for his or her one-tenth ounce coins -- $30 to $31. That does not include applicable sales taxes, shipping charges, etc. So the 8% figure is a little low.

Someone last night quoted an unbelievable price of $11 lower than what USAGOLD was selling the same German 20 mark coin. Let's think about that for a moment. When we first began our program the gold price was in the $280 range, and we were selling the German 20 mark for $77. If you subtract $11 from that figure, you come up with $66. If one were to take $280 times the .2304 fine gold content of the German coin ,the melt value is $64.50 -- Their sale price then was an astonishing $1.50 above melt. Does the individual who posted this seriously think we are going to believe that someone was selling the German 20 mark at nearly melt value? Nothing in the pre-1933 European market sells that close to spot percentage-wise -- not even the French Rooster or Swiss 20 Franc, the two lowest premium pre-1933 European? Something's wrong with that claim.

I was tied up all week between getting the newsletter out, other writing projects (including assembling research sources on confiscation -- a compilation of writings from various sources for our clients) and keeping up with CPM client needs. I simply did not have time to sit down and write the answer THC's question would have required. I was hoping I'd have time to get to it this weekend. Then for whatever reason, THC decided to escalate his "query" on Saturday. The rest is history.

THC started out his conversation by saying that he was interested in buying some German marks so he wanted this explanation and/or answer to his question. 100% of the people interested in buying gold call our offices and talk to one of us, or they simply place their order through our encrypted links. He never called. It makes me wonder how serious the man really is what he is really out to prove.

That aside, and without getting into a major dissertation on the nature of spreads, and how they are affected by a wide range of market conditions, let me just say that we are paying $6 to $7 over melt for the coin depending upon daily market conditions. Since we are selling it for $13 to $14 over spot, we are making a whopping $6 to $8 GROSS PROFIT per coin. From that, you have to take the credit card costs (over $2), shipping where applicable ($1 on a 30 coin order) and the incentives. That of course does not cover the other expenses it takes to run this site and Centennial Precious Metals. In other words, our profit, as it is in everything we sell is modest and within competive parameters. We are using this item to test whether or not we can make the internet work effectively. We add the usual caveat that the premium quoted is what we are paying today. It doesn't mean we will pay that tomorrow, next week, and next year. That's at the moment.

I will give you a good example of what could happen in that regard. Last week the platinum price shot up due to the GM announcement. I got a quote for a client looking to sell: The clearinghouses were quoting $456 per ounce spot if you wanted to buy and $440 if you wanted to sell. If you paid 7% over for your platinum coins and sold them back last week the spread would be in the neighborhood of 12% - 15%-- and that's a bullion item.

Things change. The more volatile the market, the wider the spread. I didn't want to get into a major dissertation on how the market works. That's reserved for our paying clients not some unknowns on the internet, but I offer it here as a recent example to make a point. Spreads, commissions and the like are a fact of life no matter what you are buying or selling in the way of investments. The spread between buy and sell on pre European gold coins is somewhat larger than the spread on bullion, however, in our view the extra premium and spread is worth paying for the client concerned with confiscation. If you are not concerned with confiscation buy bullion and hope that there's not something squirrelly going on (like there was in early 2000) when you go to sell. Because the spreads are going to widen whether you like it or not -- the current platinum market is a good example.

Remember though that the market dynamics can radically swing that spread in either direction and it can happen overnight. The 98% figure quoted accompanied the Y2K selloff at the beginnning of the year. I have also seen bids at 5% even 10% over melt for pre-1933 items at the other extreme when demand was strong and the clearing houses need to buy. This of course is the reason for buy/sell spreads.

For the most part though, we haven't seen alot of gold selling. Gold is going to strong hands and it probably won't come out until we see substantially higher prices. My guess is that premiums will be strong when that happens, and most clients won't be as premium conscious at that point as much as they will be capturing their profits before the market goes against them. That's assuming there will be sellers. Economic crises have a tendency to drive gold deeper into hiding not bring it out in the open.

From the top to here, that is much more information than I intended to impart , but there it is for lurkers led astray by those trying undermine the credibility of a company with 30 years service to the industry, an effective tireless proponent of the yellow metal, and highly respected source of information and encouragement throughout the industry as well as our clientele.

Sorry to disappoint our detractors, but that's the story. At the same time, I want to thank those who supported us -- Peter, Elevator Guy, Al Fulchino, Java Man, YGM et al. It means alot. And if it weren't for people like you, I sometimes wonder if I would even go on with this Forum business. (This is a hell of way to spend a Sunday afternoon, isn't it?) Interesting that the support comes from the business owners and professionals.

This is all I'm going to say on the matter. I think you will agree its enough. Any client wishing further consultation on these matters is welcome to call anytime.


Journeyman (5/21/2000; 17:05:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 30971)
Non-economists @Elevator Guy

For someone who has absolutely no knowledge or interest in economics, you sure come up with some super stuff. Competing currencies for example. A very good idea, one that recent historical studies have recently proven work very very well. Also your newest insight into taxation!

Perhaps we should replace Alan Greenspan with you.

High regards,
Journeyman


JavaMan (5/21/2000; 16:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 30970)
elevator guy, you said...
"Ah, the things one learns in the Forum!"

Exactly! That, sir, has been the point I have been trying to communicate today!

So your looking to get the new car while its still within your purchasing power?

I'm in a similar situation. We sold our house to relocate because of work in another state and purchased a very modest home until we got familiar with the area. So we have had substantial equity dollars sitting in the bank for the last year waiting to make up our minds about what to do.

Does it make sense to buy "big" now with the expectation of being able to pay down the mortgage with inflated dollars or will there be a devaluation of real estate that would represent a real bargain for anyone in a position to buy?

Opinions anyone?


elevator guy (5/21/2000; 16:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 30969)
@JavaMan
Regarding the 60% tax revolt-

It amy be that if you keep a people well fed, (fat, dumb, and happy), they may not take alarm at a 60 or 70 percent tax rate, nor would they take alarm at the grabbit taking the gold teeth out of grandma, while she sits at the dinner table.

So if the US citcenry profits from the seniorage of the FRN, and the current system brings in value from overseas, which appeases our ever inreasing appetite for material wealth, it may be that we are lulled into complacency, and even complicity, with the order of things in the world.

And so it may be, that perceived need for a tax revolt is assuaged by the bribery of material wealth.


elevator guy (5/21/2000; 16:37:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 30968)
@JavaMan
Thanks, thats a good excuse to encourage the wife to agree to that new car I want.

"Lets get it now, before our money gets smaller"

Ah, the things one learns in the Forum!


JavaMan (5/21/2000; 16:25:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 30967)
elevator guy...
You left out the hidden tax, inflation. I think it may have been Jefferson who said something like "the loss of value through inflation is spread out proportionally among those according to how long they held the money." I may be incorrect as to the source as I have lent my resource out to a friend to read. I'm sure someone here can enlighten me if I am in error.

I thought I read somewhere that historically, when a society approaches a 60% tax, a revolution is soon to follow. Did I miss it?


elevator guy (5/21/2000; 15:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 30966)
@Henri
Thanks for your answer to my "competing" curencies idea.

I know that it shows a lack of background in the discussions on this site, so I expected to get reamed.

I dont have time to read "books" on the web, and besides, such long winded posts are without pictures, and my tiny mind becomes quickly restless.

Did I stress that I thought the COMPETITION between regional currencies would force them to each be honed to a reasonable seniorage?

Well, I dont have any idea what I am talking about, so I'll quit now.

Here is another thought I've had recently, (undeveloped as it might be).

Walk with me now to an imaginary country, where each citicen has to pay to the big grabbit 10% income tax, sales tax, gas tax, property tax, excise tax, this tax, that tax, capital gains tax, sidewalk use tax, and air tax. (Not too different than where we live, huh?)

Every time each and every piece of currency changes hands, the grabbit collects that 10%, and a dime falls into a can. Then that piece of fiat currency (lets call it a GRN, or Grabbit Reserve Note) changes hands again, and with the transaction, another dime falls into the coffer. Now there is 20 cents in the can. Then that GRN gets traded for a good or service, and with each transaction, another dime falls in the can. By the time the GRN has changed hands ten times, there is one GRN worth of value (!) in the can. But the GRNs circulate much more than ten times, in fact they circulate thousands and millions of times. And with every transaction, more GRNs are collected. If any GRN circulates more than ten times, then more tax is collected on that GRN, than its face value is worth. eg- if just one GRN transacts 10,000 times, 1,000 GRNs are collected, on a note of only one GRN of value.

And so it seems, then, that in Big Grabbit Land, the GRN is a tool of extracting value out of the citicens, because the "cream" of their labors is "skimmed" off the top of the economy.

Each citicen can not see the crime, because they only see the 10% tax, and figure it is an unavoidable evil, and deem it tolerable.

Isn't it akin to a theif, who to avoid detection, steals only a small amount at a time, from only one place at a time, and thusly extends his "earnings"? Think of an apple theif, who instead of taking ten apples off of one vendors cart, takes only one apple un-noticed, or winked at, and then proceeds to the next cart, takes only one apple, and by the time he has made the rounds of Manhattan, he has accumulated hundreds of apples. And that is only one days take, for he will do it again tomorrow.

What a racket!

I heard this funny parady of the famous Paine-Webber commercial, in which the narrator, using his best erudite British accent says, " Here at ----- , we make our money the old fashioned way, we steal it"

Now, if I leave the silly stuff behind for a moment, I guess my question boils down to one basic thing,

How much money is actually collected in taxes? I have heard that if you take all the taxes an individual pays, including sales, income, property, etc, etc, and total it all up, it come to about half of one's earnings.

Half of everyones' earningss, amounts to a sort of a "forced partnership" on the part of various levels of government, imposed on its citicens. And with a variable value of the currency, oh I dont know, do you suppose, that the GRNs could have more intrinsic value (!) when they are collected, than when they are paid out?

So the taxpayer is no more than a sharecropper, and the grabbit is the landowner, and the pyramid shape of the world's hierarchy remains unchanged since day two.

Please excuse my ommissions, assupmtions, and general lack of education in these matters, for I am not an economist, nor is it even a hobby of mine.

Your thoughts?



Journeyman (5/21/2000; 15:17:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 30965)
Maybe the OLD Genghis has been around too long? @Henri, ORO,

"Yes, I do endorse a governmental structure that
will protect my right to own property and to
guarantee a stable business environment relatively
free from the predation of local "protection
rackets." .... Without protections, the entire
system would be subject to appropriation by a new
Genghis Khan. No?" -Henri msg#: 30937

Normally a government puts tarrifs on "foreign" goods, thus
profiting the government and protecting "local" businesses
from "foreign" competition. In effect, this enables "local"
(domestic) businesses to charge higher prices because there
is less competition. Thus consumers pay higher prices and
governments and businesses split the take (businesses get
higher prices, government keeps the tarrif money).

The inter-state commerce clause to the U.S. Constitution was
put there specifically to prevent American states from
interfering with trade from other American states in this
manner.

Unfortunately, you can count on governments to pervert their
rules, whenever possible, and to a degree suitable only to
cartoons or science fiction movies:

The Supreme Court on April 25, 1995, ruled a
Congressional ban on guns within 1000 feet of
schools unconstitutional. Congress has been
passing such laws on the basis of the Fed's power
to regulate interstate commerce. The Supreme
Court ruled that guns near schools didn't affect
interstate commerce. This was the first time
since 1936 that the Supreme Court declared ANY of
these interstate commerce laws unconstitutional.
The Court even upheld a 1942 law which asserted
the right of Congress to regulate the wheat grown
by an individual farmer, even if grown in a
separate, private garden plot FOR HIS OWN USE.
The Court's reasoning: If he baked it into bread,
he wouldn't buy that bread from someone else and
this would impact interstate commerce in bread.
-The McNeil Lehrer News Hour, 27 Apr 1995

Do you think it's a bit of a streach to suggest that guns
within 1000 feet of a school zone affect inter-state
commerce? I certainly do. Consider that this was the FIRST
such law counting on the commerce clause as a basis to be
struck down since 1936. If they thought they could get away
with THIS perversion, imagine all the perversions they DID
get away with on the way! Beleive me, there are plenty.
The commerce clause was twisted so far into
unrecognizability, it has become by far the main foot-in-
the-door, camel's-nose-in-the-tent of our old Genghis Kahn,
USA Corp.

Quite clearly, the intention of the Founding Fathers in
including the inter-state commerce clause in the
Constitution was NOT to interfere with farmers' private
gardens. Clearly the intention was to prevent STATE
GOVERNMENTS from interfering in inter-state trade by passing
tariffs on goods from other states.

If "our" government has been able to distort what was
obviously a well intentioned, well thought out
Constitutional protection for free markets, into it's
grotesque opposite, how much do you want to trust such
institutions to protect you from anything?

Regards,
Journeyman


Journeyman (5/21/2000; 15:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 30964)
"Roofs" and other protection systems @Henri msg#: 30937, ORO

"A business environment (a system whereby a
profiteer may conduct business and accumulate
wealth) will never be free of the cost of security
whether it be "payoffs" to local robber barons, or
the benevolence of a "govt", they are birds of a
feather. What would you propose to be a better
arragement that could conceivably free us forever
from this pillage? Anarchy? A well regulated
militia? (This one I find enticing)." -Henri msg#:
30937

If you don't mind me inserting my 2 rubles worth, I was
working in Moscow a little over 2 years ago. I had a car,
driver, and security guard. The service was superb -- I had
reason to believe my security guard, Serge (pronounced
Sir-gay), who turned out to be ex KGB, would have taken a
bullet to protect me.

I didn't find out until a few days before I left, but I was
actually working for a Russian "roof," or as you would call
it, a Russian Mafia. The Australian with whom I had my deal
explained the set up. The Mafia took 10% of your take to
protect you and your business from, well, damn near
everything. Serge and Sasha (the driver) were both part of
the mafia, for example. They worked as a Better Business
Bureau (one that actually does something) too; they did some
of your due dilligence for you because their 10% might be
worth zero if you get in a deal with a deadbeat. And you can
break your contract with them for a reasonable payout, just
like downtown USA.

This all reminds me through John Doe's nominated post,
Henri's natural order mosquito protection service, etc. of a
presentation by economist, physicist, and
who-knows-what-else-by-now, David Friedman. David is Milton
Friedman's son, and Milton admits David got more brains.
Anyway, in the earlier years of the Libertarin Party, some
of us small l libertarians would hash over anarchy. It seems
that the major sticking point was protection service. In
normal businesses, competition keeps things in check, but
how in the world could you have competing protection
services? AA robs BB. BB calls his protection service to
make AA return his property. AA calls HIS protection service
to protect him from BB's protection service. Can anyone yell
SHOOTOUT!!

David Friedman took on the problem from an economic and
real-life perspective and "proved" that the shoot out
wouldn't occur because it would be uneconomic. Instead, he
postulated, there would be a trial or negotiation of sorts,
where evidence would be presented and the best judgement,
given the circumstances, would be rendered. (David pointed
out that there is no such thing as perfect justice in the
real world. If BB was unable to prove or convince
arbitrators that the stolen articles were his, AA would get
away with it.)

David did a great job presenting this theoretical support
for the notion of competing protection services, but for me
it was still theoretical. Untill my experience in Russia.
I'm reasonably sure very few of the Russian "roofs" ever
heard of David Friedman, let alone his defense of competing
protection services, but as it turns out, they handle
inter-roof disagreements just as David theoretically
suggested they would, by negotiation. They don't like it
much - - - it can be tedious and sometimes take all
afternoon. In rare cases it can take several days to work
out an equitable settlement, they told me. "We try to solve
problems without this meeting if we can."

Judge Judy, anyone? Consider the time and cost of a normal
American court case, and that as often as not in business,
these cases involve bogus damages claimed by an unwanted
third party to the transaction - - - a government. (The
Justice Department claims damage to individual consumers,
but any monetary damages assessed, as in the tobacco
blackmail, will go to the government, not those who may have
been damaged. Ditto Microsoft. Ditto gun manufacturers.)

Shoot outs? "You are joking. Very expensive to find good
replacement. Nobody want job if bullets is reason for
opening," Serge told me.

While I was, shall we say, stunned to discover I'd been
working for a mafia, in retrospect, I'd do it again under
similar circumstances.

Regards,
Journeyman



aunuggets (5/21/2000; 15:15:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 30963)
Al Fulchino - "SAVING PENNIES" relative
"Saving Pennies" as you mention is actually a relative matter. If buying only a couple of fractional ounces here and there, that may be no big deal. If pure bullion play is the concern, involving perhaps hundreds of ounces at a time, then "pennies" take on a whole new meaning according to just how many pennies are involved. It's all part of the numbers game......."perception" if you will.

aunuggets (5/21/2000; 15:06:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 30962)
Peter Asher
An occasional dish of Crow is good for the heart (grin). However, last nights "withdrawl" was meant as tongue in cheek sarcasm, and unfortunately, intent is hard to portray without visual expression.

Peter Asher (5/21/2000; 14:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 30961)
aunuggets (5/21/2000; 13:12:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 30955)

Thanks for reminding me about the Troy ounce factor. Gandalf already clued me in on that ignorance 2 weeks ago but my intermediate term memory is slipping. So, the net numismatic premium is 12% right? Sounds OK to me.

Thanks also for being humble enough to post again after last nights "Withdrawal" from the site.


aunuggets (5/21/2000; 14:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 30960)
JavaMan - I AGREE...
There are many forms of "added value". Historical representation as you mention is but one of those forms, and could be a very important consideration outside the realms of a bullion play. I sometimes ask myself if "added value", i.e. giving up or paying on one end to receive on the other, is simply another view of savings, or receiving more for the fiat spent in the process. A custom taylored shirt may indeed fit and feel better than a Wal-Mart blue light special, and that may be perceived by some as "added value". On the other hand, having the ability to purchase 3 or 4 Wal-Mart specials for the cost of the single custom taylored shirt may be perceived as "added value" by others.

I was well acquainted with Sam Walton, who worked and lived just a few minutes from here in Bentonville, and I don't think any of us would argue with the man's success as a retailer, or that of offering "added value" for dollars spent in his establishments. After a rather severe stock market reversal in Wal-Mart stock in the early 80s, Sam once stated that "It's all paper....all except the gold of course". I will never forget those words.

I think the main point of the recent "debate" here on USA and other forums is that of a lack of apparent consistency in terms of advice, thoughts, and ideas surrounding the ideaology of gold in the long run. Having been a reader of this forum in particular almost since it's inception, I find it unfortunate that the general consensus of participants is to castigate the "sheeple mentality" of the various paper markets, and then presenting the apparent contradiction of chastizing those who refuse to go along with the formation of a new herd where certain "commercial gold coins" are concerned.

As I previously stated, buy what you like, for whatever reason or "added value" you perceive to be attached. However, labeling those who simply question premiums or buy and sell spreads as "immature", or otherwise "changing the subject" to take attention off of the real issues is not the answer to the problem. Most bullion dealers are very glad to quote buy and sell spreads, and there is a natural tendency to ask "why" of those who will not. Simple as that.

So whether you see "added value" as historical, asthetic, or otherwise, or see "added value" as more metal for fiat dollar spent, we each have our own personal objectives and should not be over critical of the other unless we are certain of our understanding of the other persons position.
True "added value" however, should be recoverable at some point in the future, should it not ? That does not necessarily mean monetarily, but could be of the instructional value you mention in your previous post. The VALUE of that "added value" is purely subjective from an historic, numismatic, or asthetic viewpoint, where it is much more objective when looking at it from the standpoint of "quantity".

Just a couple of thoughts......


Al Fulchino (5/21/2000; 14:33:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 30959)
Good Judgement and Saving Pennies
If someone were to visit one of my gas stations or galleries and start shouting about a cheaper price at another business, my reaction would be to recognize that this person is mostly interested in hearing himself/herself talk. And also to elicit a reaction from others to draw attention to themself. It wouldn't last long I can tell you. Are my prices always better than the competitions? No. Are we ever better? Sometimes. We also have other things that might make up for the price. I would never state in another person's business that another business was better in front of their customers/guests. Would you say to Aunt Louise's house guests that they should have their Thanksgiving dinner at Aunt Camelia's house because she has a great apple pie? You might! BUT not in front of poor Aunt Louise. Not if you had some tact and you had any respect for her at all.

Back to the customer:Why would they be at the business in the first place? Maybe, they needed to be to save time etc. So the business had its value for that day anyways. I do not have a sign anywhere saying that you must refrain from speaking pro or con about my competition. Yet it would be in poor taste for a person to do so as long as my prices were stated clearly and you were purchasing of free will from my establishment. This site however, does have such a sign. So, advertising can come in different forms for another site or company and although it may have not been meant to be such it came out that way. Another way would simply to have respected the site's owner and ask a forum member to speak via private email to share your good fortune news.

As far as saving money goes. I didnt see MK advertise this is the best price, maybe just a good price. I also didnt see him state that you HAD to buy something from him. So why the need to say his apple pie wasn't the best price in town? If my customers want the best price around, they can shop. As can anyone here. And if MK doesn't sell many items, he will rethink his pricing policies as would anyone if they want to make any money. But if he was selling a boatload then why give them away?

I believe I made the point. I agree with no possible competitor advertising or where would it end?

want gold? buy some
want it cheap?, find it, then buy it
want to tell someone that your host doesn't have the best apple pie? do it on the Springer show where there is a larger audience



JavaMan (5/21/2000; 14:10:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 30958)
aunuggets...
I agree with the point you make regarding bullion per dollar however, I see the purchase of the German 20 Marks from USAGold as more than a straight bullion play. To me, the coin will serve nicely as an instructional aid to family and friends as it provides the opportunity to discuss the tragic history that surrounds it. That history makes for a perfect segue into why anyone should even consider gold bullion as a play at all.

Secondly, I see the purchase of the German 20 Marks as a way to support the USAGold forum. Consider the forum and all that it offers as "value added" and it becomes obvious that you're no longer comparing apples to apples. When I'm looking for added value, I don't shop at Wal-Mart.


aunuggets (5/21/2000; 13:39:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 30957)
JavaMan
THAT is the point. If we're buying for bullion sake, get the lowest price you can find and take home the most gold. If you are buying for sentimental, historical, numismatic, or even asthetic value (or preference), buy what you like. To each his own. My purposes may not suit you, and yours may not suit me. I just happen to feel that the most gold for the dollars spent is the way to go because I also feel that the "fiat value" of that gold, either now or in the future, is a totally moot point if we stick by our convictions that gold weight is the ultimate goal. Bulk availability foreign gold coins are no more "numismatic" than bulk availability U.S. $10s and $20s, Maple Leafs, Krugerrands, Eagles, Pesos, and so on. When it's time to sell and the vast majority of coin dealers (bullion AND numismatic) will offer you only 98% of spot as their "standard offer", reality will set in all too soon.

JavaMan (5/21/2000; 13:26:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 30956)
aunuggets...
and 1/10 oz Chinese Pandas are $35.00 so what's the point? I'd rather have a piece of history.

aunuggets (5/21/2000; 13:12:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 30955)
Peter Asher #30953 - THE REAL NUMBERS


The real figures are as follows:

German 20 Marks = .2304 troy ounce X $273 gold = $62.90 intrinsic value @ $76.00 = 20.83% premium.

The 1/10th ounce American Eagles are being sold regularly at $29.50 ea. @ $273 gold = 8% premium.


Chris Powell (5/21/2000; 13:00:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 30954)
Is Deutsche Bank sabotaging the Washington Agreement
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/463?
Reg Howe reveals Deutsche Bank's huge
increase in gold derivatives, much as he
revealed J.P. Morgan's.

http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/463?


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com


Peter Asher (5/21/2000; 12:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 30953)
Leigh, Javaman:

Both of you perfectly expressed the reality of this issue which surfaces from time to time as new waves of posters arrive, and some depart to Forums more suited to them.

I loved Java's "when you grow up and host your own web site, you can make your own rules."

Last time around, (Dec. 5th) I posted >>> Censorship is when the Government says no-one can produce anything with certain words or ideas in it. Rules are when an establishment says that it will not allow the production of whatever, on it's premises. The former is suppression of a basic human right. The latter is an exercise in the right of freedom belonging to the owner of the establishment.<<<<

I want to address, though, the content of THC's original statement that was thought to be the offending post; the consideration that there was a 20% "premium" on the German 20 mark coin above that of bullion coins.

A quarter ounce coin @ $76.00 comes out to $302/0z. A full oz. American Eagle at the moment is listed at $284.30. That would be a "premium" of only 6% over a full ounce bullion coin (For a smaller size numismatic) and only 10% over spot. Furthermore fractional ounces of even bullion coins sell at a higher price per ounce than the full ounce coins. I believe that currently a 1/10th oz. Eagle will be selling for about $34.00 ($340/oz.) Which would be a "premium" of 20% on a Bullion coin itself, by virtue of size alone!

It would seem that CPM's 20 Mark offer is a very good bargain!

So much for the accuracy of the original posting: One can only speculate as to the motivation.


HI - HAT (5/21/2000; 11:49:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 30952)
Java Man Indexing
I was looking at it from what was "Legal Tender", at the time of funds transfer and signing.

A contract, is a contract, is a contract.

If someone little like me can be thwarted by the criminals using their oun game, I will go into GUILLOTINE manufacturing.


JavaMan (5/21/2000; 11:25:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 30951)
HI - HAT, you said...
"I am conflicted on the notes issue, as the confetti cash in hand is technically only the true "Legal Tender", that banks have to legally recognize in the event one wished to pay off the house amidst any conflaguration."

Isn't it the case that the banks would index any large loans so as to protect themselves from being victimized by the conflaguration, i.e. paid off in inflated dollars?


HI - HAT (5/21/2000; 11:07:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 30950)
ORO In Hand
Do you think that there is any validity or edge to the cash, "in hand", thing ala' Gary North. I am holding about 20% of net, as of now, in notes in hand. In "normal" time as well as disruption, the currency on deposit is still digital, no matter how severe the monetization or injections. I am conflicted on the notes issue, as the confetti cash in hand is technically only the true "Legal Tender", that banks have to legally recognize in the event one wished to pay off the house amidst any conflaguration.
Thankyou for any reply.


RossL (5/21/2000; 10:44:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 30949)
Rugen - msg#: 30940 - Gold-Leasing

Who buys the paper gold? What if they want delivery?


Leland (5/21/2000; 10:39:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 30948)
Computers are new to me...I Apologize for the bad Link
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/ackerman052200.html
.

YGM (5/21/2000; 10:38:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 30947)
Canuck....Good Morning
http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/english/gold/gold97-4.htm
EARMARKED Gold....I posted this some time ago ....
Some of your questions can be answered here, hope you find it as interesting as I did........Ken


Leland (5/21/2000; 10:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 30946)
Compliments to Ackerman!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest00/ackerman052200.html
"Any attempt to prop up the euro is therefore destined to fail.
It is weak not because Europe has pursued flawed policies, but
because it is part of a global money system that long ago
decoupled from anything whose value can be measured."

Rick Ackerman


Leland (5/21/2000; 9:52:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 30945)
How so Very True!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/milhouse052200.html
"The current gold market must be frustrating to bulls and bears
alike since it is steadfastly refusing to break in either direction. All
the evidence we can find, and we are not just looking for
confirmation of the bullish case, suggests to us that the next big
move in the gold market will be up. All the ducks except one – a
weakening US Dollar – are perfectly lined up. We don't expect the
final duck to keep us waiting much longer."

Steve Saville


ORO (5/21/2000; 9:27:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 30944)
Currency and specie
The currency game is prone for abuse, indeed all the currencies have been created for the sole purpose of getting something for nothing by whomever could achieve the making of his paper into currency. That something for nothing we call seigniorage.

Governments have allways attempted to obtain it. The single exception ever has been the "free" gold coinage system in the US where the government only minted coin out of private gold sent to the mint. The mint would charge for the cost of minting the gold. The earliest coins were an attempt by governments to issue a replacement for the gold or silver bars links sheets and certificates in circulation which contains less of the precious substance than the indications on the coin. In Roman times, the coinage went from low dilution to containing nearly no precious metal at all. This was part of the inflation.

The banker does his business in essesntially the same way as governments do, trying to sell each piece of metal a number of times through the issue of debt. In effect, the banker and government try to capture the same resources in the same way. The margin of value given to a circulating coinage material over its value in industrial use is about 80% of the material's market value. Governments and banks have attempted to capture this margin in part or in whole through the issue of substitutes.

The mechanics of Gresham's law show that the banker and the government can replace the whole volume of local circulation once over. Beyond that, the currency begins to be discounted at the border relative to its parity because all of the metal has been exported or hoarded, and the foreign trader will accept only the specie equivalent.

If there is no parity, the currency will have a much lower value outside the area of issue than within it. Essentially all of the demand for the currency outside the issuer's border would then be from foreigner's debt obligations denominated in the currency and from foreigner's needs for cash balances to purchase the goods coming from the issuer's country. The exception is that of a reserve currency system such as that of the pound sterling in the 1920s and 1930s, and the dollar in the 1970-2000 period.

In a reserve currency system, the development starts with the issue of a specie convertible currency of good standing produced by a major trading nation. The standardization and security of the notes and accounts adds a convenience relative to specie, and international traders hold large quantities of the currency for the purpose of trade with the major nation. It becomes the currency for denomination of international debt and of internationaly traded commodities. The issuing nation will inevitably issue increasing amounts of currency until the convertibility into specie can not be maintained. At this point convertibility is suspended and the currency suffers a period of devaluation relative to specie as excess cash balances are converted into specie within and without the nation. The denomination of debt in such currency, however, is maintained and a shortage of reserve currency maintains its value - or even increases it - as foreign debtors struggle to pay their debts after cash balances have been reduced. The debts are payed down in relationship to the size of the foreign economies that are indebted, and then the reserve currency loses its international value by 70-85%. With the US dollar, this is what we would expect to see once the foreign debt structure supporting it is destroyed.

In effect, the global single currency is what we had for most of the 20th century. The values of all other currencies were tied into the dollar through the reserve and trade policies of the issuers of other currencies.

When the currency system falls, there is a quick "monetization" of specie whereby its value as circulating medium and medium for holding cash balances is restored because of the elimination of competition from the failed reserve currency. A ten fold increase in terms of the reserve currency is the very least one would expect, a 30 to 100 fold increase is very likely during the extreme motions at the end of the road. In terms of purchasing power, it would be a 3 to 10 fold increase.


HI - HAT (5/21/2000; 8:31:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 30943)
Rugen msg.#30940 Predatory Parasites
[In the end the Borrower and the Banker are both happy at the expense of the Gold Market].

YES

They are both happily being artificialy preoccupied with getting something for nothing.


Henri (5/21/2000; 8:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 30942)
Thoughts for a Sunday - Global diversification and the Intrinsic Harmony of Lifeforce
The words of poster Sir John (Doe)and the subsequent discussion (nomination for HOF etc.) got me thinking about bioforce and the natural order of things. How it is in continual flux...the taking of momentary advantage and storing that asset obtained for use in during an inevitable peril. This is the essence of the lifeforce dynamic, from the smallest bacterial colonization to the largest forest. even fungi practice this mode of existence. To say that we have risen above this is blaspheme. The very delicate balance of nature was brought home to me many years ago when I stayed with my then fiance at Big Mama's beach resort on the island of Roatan off the coast of Honduras.

Big Mama had a slew of little bungalos behind her house/kitchen which she rented to tourists at the very reasonable price of near $0.50/day. She would also provide three squares for an additional $1.00/day per person. That brought our expenses to the incredibly low sum of about $2.50/day for this island paradise with one of the most beautiful coral reefs imaginable right outside our door. There was a communal well and flush toilet onsite. Showers were a bucket of cool well water doused overhead. Our neighbors ( a pair of young Australians chose to forego Big Mamas cooking and for the last 6 months had been living off the reef by means of a speargun and a small kerosene stove. Needless to say they had very little need for much else including a lot of clothes. They had no plans of leaving soon.

During our stay at Big Mama's, a large (maybe 15)scuba tour group came in from the US to stay at the hotel next door. We met them on the beach about two days after they arrived. We were astounded at how miserable they were concerning their accomodations which were screened in with nice rotating ceiling fans installed that ran off a rather noisy generator. What suprised us the most was that they were completely covered with insect bites! They were literally being eaten alive during the night! Yet we living not more than 100 meters away without the benefit of screens or motorized cooling, were virtually untouched by the apparent plague of mosquitos.

We went home perplexed to Big Mama's at dusk and asked our neighbors the Aussies what was up with that. With a knowing smile they took a small flashlight out and said come on we'll show you. They came to our bungalo and shown the flashlight up into the open eaves. Upon each was a whole collection of tiny lizards and chameleons assembled waiting for any mosquito fool enough to come within the reach of their talented tongues. The light also revealed the presence of a small but silent bat that circulated about the ceiling gobbling up anything that made it beyond the tongue fenced eaves and into the inner sanctum of our one room abode.

The aussies said that the reason the other hotel was so afflicted was because of their liberal use of pesticides. The voracious mosquitos were only momentarily deterred by the screening and even though copiuos quantities of coils were lit against the assault, it was all for naught.

We came to realize that we had one thing in common with the other hotel. In both cases, the humans were utized as bait for the mosquito population. The protection afforded at Big Mama's was far superior to that at that "other" place. It was not through Big Mama's doing but her "not doing" that the natural order of things was preserved. The defense against the onslaught merely descended upon us by the grace of God and by no other means. We, the bait, attracted the food for those our protectors and we all lived peacefully together. Well, maybe the mosquito population was reduced but then thats why they are so prolific I'd imagine. A gentle harmony established right in the middle of civilization!

I often reflect on this balance when I want to get in touch with the Great One.


JavaMan (5/21/2000; 7:58:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 30941)
Good morning all...
I am sure I am not alone in having watched the THC debacle unfold. While I don't usually get involved in these kinds of affairs I think this is one of those unusual times that I am inclined to do so as it parallels a personal experience I had just last week that I would like to share.

My son had his senior prom last week and his girlfriend came to visit from out of town for five days. Without getting into the "gory" details, suffice it to say that our son and his girlfriend don't share our sense of morality so my wife and I had decided that it would be best if, when bedtime came, our son would sleep at a friends house.

When our son, who found these arrangements to be less than satisfactory, informed his girlfriend of our "house rules", it "hit the fan". Our son and his girlfriend decided that these accommodations were absolutely not satisfactory and that if a "compromise" of our standards was not forthcoming, they would find alternative arrangements.

Ah the wisdom of youth! (oxymoron?) I responded with the suggestion that if our hospitality was inadequate, then he would have to also make arrangements for the two of them to eat somewhere else, as well as finding alternative transportation (as we would not feel inclined to chauffeur them around) and last, but not least, we mentioned that he would have to figure out where he was going to get the bucks to finance all of the expenses incurred during the week as he is pennyless. I went on to explain that one should consider all of the costs associated with taking a stand in protest of an issue and to fail to do so is usually the result of immaturity or ignorance or both. I also communicated that our "house rules" reflected our moral standards and we would, under no circumstances, compromise them and, of course "the obligatory" when you grow up and have your own home, you can set your own house rules and fully expect others to abide by them. Finally, after much hand wringing and telephone communication with his girlfriend, they acquiesced.

And now for the application. The "house (castle?) rules" are clearly stated. By posting here, it is implicitly acknowledged that each will respect them. Its that simple and, as is so often said in matters like this, when you grow up and host your own web site, you can make your own rules.

Unfortunately, all of this may have just been an careless oversight on the part of THC as I saw no reference in his lamenting indicating the content of the actual post that lead to all of this.

JLV in your msg 30921 you said... "He doesn't normally conduct business via the Forum (except for occasionally mentioning "specials"). If 'specials' are promoted on the forum, doesn't MK open himself up to a full disclosure?

JavaMan: Absolutely Not

JLV: Kind of a fairness thing?"

JavaMan: Yes, when the fundamental attributes of respect, good manners, common sense and knowing how to behave as a guest while enjoying the hospitality of another are abided by, there is fairness.


Rugen (5/21/2000; 7:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 30940)
Gold-Leasing

My opinion on the inner workings of Gold-leasing. As an example, an Investor or a Group have assets of 1 Billion, the largest Banks will lend 70 % of this value in cash. Our hypothetical Investor wants 1 Billion at better than commercial lending rates for project X. His ticket to salvation? Gold-Leasing. His costs are as follows. On 700 secured million of leased Gold, he pays the low lease rate of 2%
On the unsecured 300 Million of leased Gold, he will pay a much higher rate of perhaps 10% or 15%. In the overall scenario, he pays a lower rate of interest on the entire 1 Billion than he would have paid on just 700 Million at 5% or 6% commercial rate. A good deal for the borrower.
He proceeds with Goldmannischem advice at a cost of about 50 to 60 million dollars to sell 1 Billion in PAPER-GOLD.

The Banker will lease his gold with a 100-page legalese gobbledygook contract that specifies that the leased gold is earmarked for the client but is NOT allowed to leave the vaults of the bank. The Bank has to two areas in the same vault marked Bank-Gold and Leased-Gold.
The borrower gets a grade AAA letter of credit for 1Billion secured in gold to be used exclusively to facilitate the sale of PAPER-GOLD. If the borrower defaults on the sold Paper-Gold the lease is terminated and the gold is returned to the Bank that it has never left, just as in any Auto-Leasing contract; up on default the Auto is immediately repossessed. The Bank has not sold the Paper-Gold and washes its hands of all responsibility.
The Bankers is happy, he created 1Billion in interest bearing loans at a total exposure of 300 Million minus up front fees, assaying and earmarking the Gold outgoing and incoming BG to LG fees. Interest payment on the 300 Million in advance and misc. fees and loan points. The Bank of course would also attach project X sufficiently until his risk is reduced to zero on the 300 Million Dollars. This is of course, a simple short explanation of the Leasing mechanism, leaving out all the contractual nuances.
In the end The Borrower and the Banker are both happy at the expense of the Gold market. Yes no, comments!



HI - HAT (5/21/2000; 7:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 30939)
Canuck Bottam End
Who is there but Mankind itself to adjudge what is Divine Law.

There are no firewalls in reality that seperate the mundane from the sublime.

We are and will suffer greatly because of Artificial Wealth (Fiat) being upheld out of the barrels of guns by powers and vested interests (Bank Bums) in an anti-Divine Law (PARITY), that seeks something for nothing

Nature Debited ; Man Credited

Exploitation scheme of buying cheap and selling dear (DELL)=snake eating it's oun tail.

Canuck: What is the end in 'novice ' language?

The end is when Wealth of the land is withheld from artificial wealth and the economic structure eats itself and starves.


Leland (5/21/2000; 7:31:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 30938)
"Trading-Up" as an Inflation Factor
http://www.ardemgaz.com/today/biz/0G1bfed21.html
TRADING UP
After an unprecedented nine years of economic expansion, the trend
toward higher prices makes sense. With incomes and wealth soaring, some
customers are turning less cost-conscious and more status-conscious. Beer
makers have been able to boost profits with higher prices this year in part
because, an Anheuser-Busch Cos. spokesman says, "consumers have been
trading up from subpremium to premium and above brands."
Computer buyers are also going for pricier models. Nearly 50 percent of
all PCs sold by Dell Computer Corp. are high-end products such as lap-tops
that sell for as much as $3,000. That's up from just 39 percent in that
category a year ago.
"No one wants to buy last year's model. ... You want the latest thing," says
CEO Michael Dell. "That means we're able to sell computers for roughly the
same average price, and often higher, than in previous quarters."
The average dinner check at Buca Inc., the Minneapolis chain of Buca di
Beppo restaurants, is up 4 percent this year after staying flat last year, as the
Italian eatery has successfully shifted customers to higher-priced specials.


Henri (5/21/2000; 7:28:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 30937)
ORO post #30818
Yes, I do endorse a governmental structure that will protect my right to own property and to guarantee a stable business environment relatively free from the predation of local "protection rackets". A business environment ( a system whereby a profiteer may conduct business and accumulate wealth) will never be free of the cost of security whether it be "payoffs" to local robber barons, or the benevolence of a "govt", they are birds of a feather.

What would you propose to be a better arragement that could conceivably free us forever from this pillage? Anarchy? A well regulated militia? (This one I find enticing). Without protections, the entire system would be subject to appropriation by a new Genghis Khan. No?


Henri (5/21/2000; 7:20:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 30936)
Elevator Guy
Establishing say 4 regional currencies within the US boundaries to "compete with the FRN.

Hmmm, well it goes to what Aragorn III said responding to ORO that localized systems are not anymore superior to overbearing and mandated govt currency systems since they too have been found in time to succomb to the forces of greed leading to their rot.

With the establishment of the NAFTA protocol have we not done essentially this thing you suggest? The jury is still out on what benefit this has created.

I see that we have only removed the visible barriers of isolationism set up in the before time and have not removed any (and perhaps given more strength to) the invisible clutches of regional trade competition and unofficial embargo to impoverish our own trading partners. In effect a "Beggar thy neighbor" policy under the pretty wrapping paper of an allegedly expanded economic base.


Canuck (5/21/2000; 6:34:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 30935)
Questions
From Oro, (30928)

"after the (possibly hostage) NY Fed "earmarked" gold is released."
-----------------------------------
Perhaps Oro or someone else can comment on a couple 'novice'
questions that I am having trouble with. TIA.

What does 'monetary' and 'non-monetary' gold mean? Does it refer to the ownership of the metal?

Who owns the gold in the NY Fed? Fort Knox? The 'buzzing'
lately of US gold exports; is this US gold sold or 'return'
of another nation's gold.

Why is there so much gold from other nations stored in the US? Any idea of how much? Is this a result of WWII?

What does 'earmarked' mean?

This 'export' business of late has stirred alot of controversy. Is it because of the question of US owned gold sold or non-US gold returned? The fact that the 'trade deficit' indicates an export implies US gold sold, does it not?

Does this line of questioning follow ORO's "held hostage"
comment?

Following the 'gold trail' is a confusing business. Is is me or why do I find so many comments and articles so contradictary? The latest Howe article is mind-boggling.
I sometimes surmise that since gold is the 'truest' form of money it leads the manipulating 'crooks' to be at their worst. Seems fitting that the powers of politics and finance
'manipulate' the truth to its fullest extent; IRONIC that these elite have this perversion of secrecy and distortion
with regards to the element that "speaks the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, ....."

How will this end? What is the end in 'novice' language?

Anyone care to 'babble' a little on this fine Sunday morning
(Eastern)

Thanks for listening to my ramble.

Canuck.


DaveC (5/21/2000; 5:06:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 30934)
Tax Avoidance Twice Discipled (05/18/00; 08:19:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 30770)
Try calling American Rights Litigators in Mt. Dora, FL.
Ask for Eddie Kahn. 352-383-9100.

It has been two years since I met and spoke to Eddie. Very knowledgeable in how to exercise your rights and not pay taxes.



DaveC (5/21/2000; 4:55:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 30933)
Farfel (5/19/2000; 11:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 30853)
"Kitco guru APH called for 252 gold today, and missed by TWENTY bucks."

GURU - Generally Unreliable, Relatively Useless.


Topaz (5/21/2000; 4:50:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 30932)
RossL: Peter A:

Thanks for caring Gent's,
The coin in question is a Australian $0.50 minted in 1966? and the specs are as listed.
The problem in communication arises when all too familiar abbreviations are used for more than 1 thing ie:
Oz= Ounce= Australian= Au= Gold.
I will try to be clearer in future.


Leland (05/21/00; 03:00:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 30931)
"Dark Side of Stocks" ... "This is a Good Time to be Cautious"
Scott Burns: Stocks, funds
thirsting for cash flow

05/21/2000

By Scott Burns / The Dallas Morning News

How much money will it take to sustain stock
prices?

That question came to mind as I compared record
equity mutual fund cash flows to stock prices.

In April, a tough and volatile month for stocks, six of
every seven equity funds lost money. In the same
month, investors committed large amounts of new
money to equity investments. Some investors were
dollar cost averaging, some were "buying on the
dip." While the average domestic stock fund lost 3.9
percent for the month, losses of more than10
percent were common.

The encouraging news is that we are not easily
frightened.

Miseries of the last few weeks notwithstanding, most
people have decided that they are long-term
investors.

They will continue to buy stocks through thick and
thin. It is now a primary article of faith that stocks
are the best investment "for the long run."

Dark side of stocks

Unfortunately, the same information also has a dark
side.

Early estimates indicate that net new money invested
in equity mutual funds will be about $25 billion for
April.

Added to record inflows for January, February and
March, the total will be nearly $120 billion - almost
twice the $62 billion for the same period in 1999,
according to figures from the Investment Company
Institute.

This is a formidable amount. You can get some idea
of how vast $120 billion is by some comparisons:

It is equal to the net annual sales for the entire
industry as recently as 1991.

It is greater than the total assets of all equity funds
as recently as 1985.

In other words, in spite of record demand for
common stocks - at least in the mutual fund arena -
stock prices are uncertain, volatile and appear to be
trending downward. At the end of April, the average
year-to-date return for all equity funds was 0.42
percent.

Query: If it takes a net flow of $120 billion in four
months just to stay even, how much money will it
take to keep a bull market going?

And from what source will that money come?

Let's take a look.

Money exchange

One of the current sources of demand for stocks
isn't new investment money. It's exchanges from
existing funds that specialize in other areas.

What does that mean?

Simple. When an investor with an existing account
decides to redeem his shares, he can cash out or
exchange for another fund.

Most fund firms make it very easy to do exchanges
and it is usually cost-free if done within the same
fund family.

So far this year, people have exchanged money out
of hybrid funds (such as balanced funds), taxable
bond funds, municipal bond funds and money
market funds while they have exchanged money into
equity funds. The figures for March are shown in the
accompanying table. (I'll post the April figures to my
Web site when they are available.)

On the lookout

A broader look at the figures shows much the same:
All categories of mutual funds are in net redemption
except stock funds. Taxable bond funds suffered net
redemptions of nearly $20 billion in the first quarter
of this year and have been in net redemption since
last September. At that rate the entire taxable bond
fund sector, with $524 billion in assets, would be
liquidated in less than seven years.

Will it be liquidated?

No. But that isn't the point. What's important is that
equity investors are now supplementing savings from
income with cash from other investments.

It's not likely that the flow of money into equity
mutual funds will get much larger, and stocks still
look volatile and weak.

This is a good time to be cautious.

(Thanks to Scott Burns, THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS, And Fair Use For Educational/Research Purposes Only.)


YGM (05/21/00; 01:43:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 30930)
Not a Knight of the Table Round Myself....
But I like it here....Censorship...NO
I have experienced censorship on another site... And repeatedly til I PO'd the owner & got the boot....I've posted here freely for along time and it got to be like a second home.....I read & learn much more than I can repay w/ commentary and discussion.....But I've always been accepted for sharing finds and stirring up the stew...(GATA)

MK. is a good and generous host and this crew deserves credit for one hell of alot of time shared w/ novices like me, and this conversation is over for me..I'm going to my pillow.
I'm worn out from reading at 4 sites & catching up.....Ken

GO GATA, and GO PHYSICAL...........YGM.


aunuggets (05/21/00; 00:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 30929)
Analyzer #30924
I'll second your withdrawl.....

"Free Markets"......as long as you buy from me.

"Freedom of Speach".......as long as I agree.

"Freedom of Expression".........as long as you don't step on my toes.

Censorship is alive and well in America folks !

Don't bother to pull the plug MK, I'll let myself out.




ViewYesterday's Discussion.


Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

usa gold coins and bullion
Centennial Precious Metals
Gold coins & bullion since 1973

P.O. Box 460009
Denver, Colorado 80246-0009

We educate first-time investors!

We invite you to contact our trading desk
for quotes and purchase information.

Buy gold in U.S. 1-800-869-5115
Buy gold in EU 00-800-8720-8720

6:00am to 6:00pm MtnTime; Mon-Fri

admin@usagold.com

Remember: It's your purchase of gold from USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages

Click to verify BBB accreditation and to see a BBB report.

Friday November 21
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
site map - site index
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2008 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved