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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/21/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Peter Asher (4/21/2000; 22:40:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 29157) Solomon Weaver (4/21/2000; 22:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 29155) That price is as of the close THURSDAY, and is actually .02 higher than the close today overseas.The .13 drop is from their spot price before the Comex dropped that morning. They make their own market from their own ongoing inventory and may be higher or lower than major Exchanges at any time.Those fluctuations reflect the decisions of their own market maker based on the activities of their own sales force. Their price chart is not an indicator of the PM market. It is their own in-house (median) price list. totalamateur (4/21/2000; 22:10:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29156) A good way to buy gold? Thanks for the long and thorough explanation about COMEX and futures, of which I understood about half, only don't ask me which half! Ha!Seriously, is this a good way of buying physical gold, to buy futures and then take delivery? Please explain! Solomon Weaver (4/21/2000; 22:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 29155) Hey, what happened to silver today?? http://www.monex.com/prices_f.html According to the MONEX spot prices, silver spot took a big hit today...Is this just TPTB whipping some of the whimpy longs out of the market?There is an additional aspect to the silver pledge...ANYONE OUT THERE WHO "THINKS" THEY OWN SILVER because they have a coupon that says so, should pledge to send the coupon in and ask to have the material delivered to their homes.Poor old Solomon Solomon Weaver (4/21/2000; 21:54:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29154) Now is the knowing for Town Crier Hey TCI think this is a Freudian slip that what we have been "knowing" here is begininng to "now".Can't you see that this whole thing has a very ZEN appeal to it?By the way, do you know the meaning of this KOAN:First there is a mountain.Then there is no mountain.Then there is a mountain.Any guesses out there?Poor old Solomon Elwood (4/21/2000; 21:49:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29153) NASDAQ PE ratio chart http://www.investech.com/others/upload/cw000404_pe.gif hehe TownCrier (4/21/2000; 21:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29152) I don't know... why I suddenly had the tendency to make the error of typing "know" when I meant "now" on several occasions. Hopefully you can decipher the meaning anyway in this very important post...if I may be at liberty to so judge the output of The Tower.And I thank you. TownCrier (4/21/2000; 20:10:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29151) Sir Econoclast's questions on COMEX...and revisiting an important quote from ANOTHER's THOUGHTS! In total there are 110,525 ounces of eligible gold and 1,856,270 ounces of registered inventory on the books of the two official COMEX gold vaults...housed at ScotiaMocatta and at Republic National Bank of New York. As you can see, the 990,000 ounces represented by delivery notices on the April contract is a figure larger than half of the COMEX inventory.If those on the sell/short side of these 9,900 contracts that have delivery obligations are among those who have gold already registered within the COMEX system, then there would simply be a transfer of title/registration on the books. Under such a scenario, the would be no demand pressure hitting the spot market. Similarly, if these same entities have gold in a private stock, they could yield it up without pressuring spot demand. And in fact, if those on the receiving end of these deliveries are content to let COMEX remain as the guardian, then we could actually see the level of COMEX gold holdings rise as a consequence.However, if the current COMEX gold inventory reflected only the positions of contented longs, and those who theoretically sold gold and are now faced with delivery obligations do not have gold in their private stash, then they have two options. First option, they would turn to the spot market, bringing this demand pressure to apply upon the metal to be found there. Second option, they could "pass the buck" by entering the buy side of other April contracts and calling for delivery with which they will satisfy their own obligations. This "passing of the buck" could occur many times until a seller was found that had the required gold either in the COMEX system, in their private vault, or else by turning in the end to the spot market at some point prior to the delivery deadline of April 28. Of the 9,900 contracts held up for delivery, what are the chances that the buck was passed 9,900 times to satisfy one original delivery notice for a single 100 ounce contract??? My guess is that the buck is passed to a dergee, but that in this case it would not constitute the bulk of the delivery intentions. One reason for this conclusion is that around 7,000 contracts were immediately given notice for delivery on the first possible day...March 31st.As you can imagine, this "passing of the buck" would first put demand pressure on the April contract itself, then maybe the spot market as necessary...depending on where the gold finally came from to fill the order (COMEX inventory, private inventory, or spot). Such demand pressure on April contracts or spot markets would be acceptible, because at this point April is off the radar screen. All focus is now upon the widely reported most active futures month which is June in this case. (And as you should know by now, the spot price is mathematically derived from the most active futures month's prices.) Another reason the "passing of the buck" probably does not artificially inflate the delivery intentions and hence the apparent quantity of gold scheduled to change owners (prior to the April 28 deadline) is that the institutional players without gold but with a desire toward suppressing the price would have settled their April contracts with cash (probably with a profit?) prior to being subjected to delivery obligations on First Notice Day (March 31). Upon the arrival of this important deadline, they would have moved into the future month of June, making it the active one, and would continue to short with delivery immunity while the April delivery drama would play out behind them.It should be clear by know that all that is necessary to cap the U.S. price of gold for those desiring to do so is to continue to sell the active month futures contracts more aggressively than anyone else can be found to buy them. Not only are they thereby immune from the possibility of being stuck with delivery obligations for gold that they couldn't provide, but their depression of this highly publicized futures price will generally diffuse any desire for the remaining April longs to seek delivery of a postion that is already apparently underwater as a cash loss. And for the same reason, the typical western investor mindset will not be putting much demand pressure on the spot market either. (Now you get a small feeling for why this latest delivery demand upon COMEX contracts seems outside the norm.)I wonder how many of these institutions are selling the futures (and as a bonus possibly making some money as the price falls by their own effort) while at the same timie buying what little physical metal remains available or is capitulated upon the spot market by those who see no end to the fall. In this context, consider this very astute observation of ANOTHER:"Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not better to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow!" --ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) 1/10/98 You see, ultimately it is the ability to acquire the metal itself that is important, and falling prices are a means to this end. But lest you think there is no end in sight, I assure you this process has its limits. At the absolute worst, the system breaks down when the active futures month reaches a price of zero. But it take little awareness of reality to convince yourself the breakdown shall happen long before. For even as the typical western investor turns gold aside to seek the ownership of dot.coms on Wall Street, the rest of the world is buying whatever gold can be purchased with their own feable currencies. Sell currencies to buy dollars, use dollars to buy gold. You know see a reason why the dollar continues to look strong on the foreign exchange markets, and yet the price of real gold metal is disguised behind the mask of futures selling...the selling of just one form of paper gold derivative. At some point the last available golden chip is taken from the market table, and only the payment of higher premiums above the artificially determined spot price will get you the gold you seek. This would be the separation of the paper and physical market prices that has been discussed here in the past.Finally, think on this: the quantiy of any available dot.com stock can be doubled as easily as a stock split. Again and again. In contrast, the quantity of available gold can only be doubled by decades of exploration and mining effort for the naturally occuring reserves of a scare mineral that would only thereby be getting ever scarcer to find. In the event of a general economic crisis such as one brought about by the failure or dethroning of a world reserve currency, would you expect gold to provide a platform by which international minds could begin to relatively measure the wide value of various assets? Would you be inclined to agree that gold would rise to the top, while paper assets measured by other forms of paper would all be seen of dubious and uncertain merit? Stock splits, anyone? Currency floats, maybe? My treat. totalamateur (4/21/2000; 19:00:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29150) (No Subject) "THE MONEY EXPLODES!" I HAD THIS DREAM just now, and it scared me so it woke me up! We were at the grocer's trying to buy a can of soup, and you asked the man, "How much is this?" He said, "That'll be three pounds." I said "three pounds!--For a can of soup!" He said "That's the price today, and you better take it or leave it, Buddy! For there's no telling what it's going to be tomorrow!" So we paid him three pounds and walked out stunned!I DON'T KNOW WHAT HAPPENED IN BETWEEN, but we must have decided we should leave the country because of the monetary situation. A can of soup for three pounds! So the next thing I knew we were at the railway station trying to buy a ticket, and I was asking him for a return ticket, a round-trip ticket."I'M SORRY, WE'RE ONLY SELLING ONE-WAY TICKETS," he said. "We have no idea what the return fare would be later. I wouldn't care if you were returning this weekend, I wouldn't sell you a return ticket because I have no idea what the price will be by then. All we're selling is one-way tickets, and we have no idea what the price will be on returns. We'll sell you a one-way ticket at what it is today, and that's it! And that's for your fare today only. It's got to be used today. We've no idea what the prices are going to be tomorrow!"SO EVIDENTLY WE DECIDED TO GO TO THE BANK and take our money out-what little we had--for due to this skyrocketing inflation its value was being lost so rapidly, and we were apparently going to leave the country.ON THE WAY TO THE BANK we stopped to watch this train go by. It was leaving the station and picking up speed as it left, at first starting to roll real slowly and then faster and faster, till soon it was just flying! I didn't understand at first what that meant, but I realise now I was thinking, "It's symbolic of how once the thing starts rolling, the inflation really gets going, it really flies!"THE POUND'S LOST 10% OF ITS VALUE IN THE PAST WEEK! But it wasn't even in the headlines! Isn't that peculiar? It's down to the lowest it's ever been, now, and the dollar is up the highest it's ever been!--I've got something on that too in a minute.SO THEN AS WE PASSED ON WE WERE GOING THROUGH THIS JUNKYARD of old scrap iron, and I looked at these piles of old scrap iron on both sides and said, "My, if you can imagine, it's not just the price of gold that's skyrocketing, but even old scrap metal like this is going to be worth a fortune!"WE GOT TO THE BANK AND THE BANK WAS JUST PACKED WITH PEOPLE standing in long queues at each window waiting to do the same thing, to get their money out. I must have figured I could get quicker action by going to see the manager, and I wouldn't have to stand in the queues, so I went through this door into the manager's office.IT WAS A DOOR YOU PUSH IN LIKE SOME OF THESE ONE-WAY DOORS do, and it slammed shut behind me. I turned around and I looked at it and thought, "That's funny!" I pushed on it and it wouldn't open, for it just opened inwardly, but it wouldn't open outwardly, and there was no handle on the inside so there was no way I could open the door from the inside. I thought, "My Lord this is just like a trap! I'm trapped in this bank!"THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN THE WHOLE BUILDING BEGAN TO SHRINK! I thought, "My God, this thing is going to crush us all!" The bank was literally shrivelling, crushing, and the walls were beginning to close in on us! But suddenly there came this voice from above: "Don't worry! The Green Pig is about to explode and it'll blow the bank to bits!" (See "Green Paper Pig," posted earlier on USAGold) And I woke up--Boom! Just like that! It was like a nightmare!I THOUGHT, "LORD WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?" Then suddenly there dawned on me something I told you before: When those big business financiers, were releasing the Green Pig to chase us down the Jordan Valley, remember it was just a little thing at first? But as it raced down the Jericho road and then down the Jordan it got bigger and bigger and bigger just like a big balloon, till by the time it got almost to us it was like one of those big blimps--a huge parade balloon!OF COURSE! WHAT DOES THAT SYMBOLISE?--AN INFLATION of the Dollar value! The Green Paper Pig was inflating and getting bigger and bigger and bigger all the time, until suddenly it burst! You understand?--The "Green Paper Pig is about to explode and will blow the bank to bits!"--The monetary system is about to explode and cause the capitalistic financial system to collapse!BUT I WAS SO SCARED of whatever it was, the idea of the bank blowing up didn't seem to appeal to me much more than the bank collapsing on me! The voice said, "Don't worry! The Green Pig is about to explode and blow the bank to bits!" It seemed the voice came out of the sky like an angel.WHEN THE GREEN PIG EXPLODED, THAT WAS A SUDDEN INFLATIONARY EXPLOSION OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM!--And what happens?--What followed?--It collapsed!--In total deflation! See? That's a deflation: It just collapsed! Then I was thinking, "I wonder if that has anything to do with the comet and the 40 Days and the destruction of America?"IMMEDIATELY I SAW THE PRICE OF THE DOLLAR GROWING and growing: The Dollar, the green Dollar, the Green Pig, is literally inflating right now very rapidly. But I was thinking, "Lord, how come America seems to be coming out on the best side of the deal, and the dollar's going up in value? If You're about to destroy America, how come the Dollar's going up?" Well it's inflating, so of course it's going up!IT'S GOT TO INFLATE BEFORE IT CAN EXPLODE! It would be funny if the Lord destroyed America through its greedy god, the Dollar! There might be an earthquake or bombs or heaven knows what, and it could be that too. But the dollar is definitely inflating and it's got to eventually explode!--And boy, if anything would ever destroy America, that would be it!--And of course it would also destroy the whole world monetary system which is based on that Green Pig! (My comment: today there's a replacement ready to take over!)"DON'T WORRY! THE GREEN PIG'S ABOUT TO EXPLODE and it'll blow the bank to bits!" In other words, that is obviously symbolic of an inflation that's so bad that it finally just absolutely explodes and collapses the whole monetary system, and the bank must represent the financial system the banking system and so on. If this happens, it will literally blow the whole world banking system, its financial system, to absolute bits!IT'LL BE A TOTAL WORLD COLLAPSE OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM which is built on that stupid Paper Pig! See! Isn't that ridiculous? If that little Pig inflates to that point where it explodes, it's going to literally blow their whole monetary and financial systems to bits! If the monetary system explodes, it will literally destroy the financial system. The bank must represent the financial system.THAT'S WHERE I WOKE UP, and I was thinking, "How come the poor pound has gone down, down, down, and the Dollar's going up?" The answer came to me as clear as anything: It's the Dollar that really has to explode! It will be so inflated in value that it finally explodes! See? The pound has actually gone down in value, which in a way is safer for the pound, believe it or not, than to be inflated like the Dollar is right now. But boy, our friends better get their money into gold or they're going to be sorry!THEN IT CAME TO ME as plain as anything: "Well, what do you think is doing it? Why is the Dollar inflating?"--This is what's doing it: They are selling out their European currencies and buying Dollars instead! The banking interests apparently are buying Dollars and dumping pounds and European money deliberately to try to hurt England and Europe for the stand they took on the Mideast! So they're dumping their European currencies and buying Dollars to favour their friend America and punish Europe!THIS FULFILLS EXACTLY WHAT THE LORD SHOWED ME about what they were doing in that dream about the Green Paper Pig! They're releasing the Green Paper Pig and causing it to inflate, you see?--The Dollar! (Maria: But it's their pig.) Yes, it is their pig, but apparently they thought they could control it.THEY NEVER DREAMED IT WAS GOING TO GO SO FAR, see? They thought it was going to scare hell out of us and cause us some kind of damage. But instead of that I just pointed my finger at it and it went "Poof"! Boom! Exploded! And that was it! They never expected in to inflate to the point that it was going to absolutely explode and be totally destroyed!THEY REALLY UNLEASHED THAT GREEN PIG ON THE EUROPEANS, SEE?--Because what were we doing in the Green Pig dream?--Europe was crossing the Jordan of decision and the Dead Sea of death to the Dollar to the side of the Arabs in that dream! The Green Dollar Pig is the weapon they are using against the Europeans for siding with the Arabs for oil!THEY ARE UNLEASHING THIS DOLLAR INFLATION WEAPON against the Arabs and their friends!--You get it? That would include Britain and Europe, whose currencies are going down in relation to the Dollar. The Dollar is expanding, inflating, going up in price, whereas European currencies are going down.BECAUSE THEY ARE DUMPING THEIR EUROPEAN CURRENCIES AND BUYING DOLLARS! They have precipitated this monetary crisis deliberately, see? That's why the international monetary fund and all those big money boys, the Council of 20 and Council of Ten, etc., have gotten together several times lately to try to agree on a monetary policy, but they flatly refuse--they can't agree on it. The only reason they can't agree is that they don't want to agree!THOSE WHO CONTROL THEIR PORTION OF THE MONEY which is tremendous, their big banking interests don't want to stop it. They're using the inflation of the Dollar to try to destroy their enemies, including pro-Arab Europe! They know how much money those Arabs have got invested in Europe, and they are trying to destroy not only the Arabs but the Arabs' friends, which would include Europe and Britain.BUT THE INFLATION WHICH THEY HAVE PRECIPITATED WILL GET OUT OF HAND AND THE DOLLAR WILL EXPLODE AND BE TOTALLY DESTROYED INSTEAD! Instead of becoming a monster that was going to frighten and devour their enemies, when I pointed at it, it exploded!SO THE DOLLAR IS INFLATING LIKE MAD RIGHT NOW, and when it gets to that point that it explodes, the whole world monetary system will collapse!--And the bankers and capitalists will be left sitting on their stacks of bank notes which will be worthless!ANOTHER THING WHICH SHOULD HAVE BEEN HEADLINES IN THE PAPER YESTERDAY WAS THE PRICE OF GOLD: It's up to nearly $140 an ounce, the highest it has ever been in history! There wasn't one word in the paper about the fact that the pound had sunk another 10% in a week and that gold had gone up almost another 10%! This shows the Dollar is really not all that valuable, but only better than other currencies. So it began to dawn on me what all this meant, or what it could mean: The soon explosion of the Pig!THEN I SUDDENLY REMEMBERED THE NEWS THAT RUSSIA HAD JUST ANNOUNCED SHE'S GOING TO CARRY ON ROCKET TESTS in the North Pacific and warned shipping to stay out of the area. I wonder if that has any connection? What could that mean? Why should she be warning shipping to stay out of that area right now, which is near Siberia and Alaska?WHAT IF RUSSIA WERE PLANNING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION, knowing somehow that America's monetary system was about to collapse and therefore weaken the whole country? If the Dollar collapsed America would absolutely collapse! When she collapsed financially, she'd be in a state of absolute chaos!THAT WOULD BE THE SMARTEST THING IN THE WORLD TO DO, TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AMERICA IN A STATE OF COLLAPSE and absolute chaos for an invasion! The logical way for Russia to invade, of course, the way that Americans have always been afraid she was going to invade, is the shortest possible route right through Siberia right across the Bering Straits into Alaska and down. Now that's quite possibly what Russia has in mind!BUT HOW COULD THAT AFFECT THE MIDEAST? Well of course, dying America in its last desperate death struggles, what would it do? What was causing it to collapse? If her money had collapsed and she was out oil, what would become the only valuables in the world?IF AMERICA'S WHOLE SYSTEM WAS COLLAPSING AND SUDDENLY GOLD AND OIL HAVE BECOME THE ONLY THINGS THAT ARE WORTH ANYTHING, the only commodities with standards of value and usefulness, what would the Americans do as a last act of desperation? Dying America would do what?AMERICA WOULD TRY TO ATTACK THE ARAB COUNTRIES AND GRAB THE OIL AND THE GOLD! Whatever super power possesses and controls those Arab countries would have all the oil and they'd have most of the gold too, and they would have what would be the most valuable things in the world at a time of crisis like that!SO THE EXPLOSION OF THE GREEN PIG, THE MONETARY SYSTEM, COULD CAUSE THE MIDEAST TO EXPLODE. I have always theorised that it was because of the Arab defeat that they were the ones who would get desperate and start doing the shooting. But the reason we saw the Arabs in our vision doing the shooting could be because they realised or had intelligence that America was about to attack, so they just started attacking first, and then everybody started shooting because they were all prepared for it anyhow.40 DAYS! 40 DAYS, BY THE WAY, IS THE TIME ALLOTTED FOR THE ISRAELI DISENGAGEMENT FROM THE EGYPTIANS. 40 Days! Russia is smart enough to see what's happening or about to happen--and, who knows, she may even be helping to engineer it! Russia has long sought to engineer the collapse of the capitalistic system. What better way to help the collapse of the capitalistic system than to explode its monetary system and its banking system, its whole financial system?SO THE RUSSIANS MAY BE GOING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION TO ATTACK A WEAKENED AMERICA. What a perfect preparation for any proposed rocket attack on America! The Money Explodes! The Dollar Explodes! Inflation Explodes!--And War Explodes!THE LORD APPARENTLY GAVE ME THE DREAM TO WARN US THAT THE PIG IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE and is going to destroy the monetary system and with it the financial system, and with it virtually the whole capitalistic system; and Russia is probably preparing to take advantage of situation to destroy America.AMERICA IN ITS LAST DYING DESPERATE HOURS IN VERY LIKELY GOING TO EXPLODE IN THE MIDEAST and try to grab the oil and the gold to save herself. As a result, America and Russia would be going to war and destroying each other, which would work out just like we have seen it before.THEN CHINA, EUROPE AND THE POOR NATIONS OF THE THIRD WORLD COULD TAKE OVER: THAT'S THE HAPPY ENDING! So praise the Lord! Boy I tell you, we are without excuse! The Lord has warned us so much!The above letter was written January 24, 1974 by Father David. I don't know how many people saw it this way back then! There seems to be an amazing amount of correlation between what has been said on the forum lately and what we find in this letter written 26 years ago. God likes to give us an early warning! Time is getting shorter! Leland (4/21/2000; 18:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29149) Doug Nolands April 2l Report (Oil Supply Comments Snipped) http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm "Now, let's attempt to garner relevant insight from history to make more sense of today's extraordinary environment. First, it is important to appreciate how the oil supply shocks during the 1970's set off processes with profound financial and economic ramifications, inflationary and otherwise, that ended in problematic economic distortions and severe dislocations for the US financial system. In this respect, it is our strong view that supply shocks during the 1990's, although today remaining virtually unrecognized and unappreciated, have been similarly powerful in inciting profound economic distortions and catastrophic financial fragility. The global crisis that exploded in SE Asia in the summer of 1997 and escalated in 1998 with the collapse in Russia and the near meltdown of the US credit market with the failure of LTCM, was a major supply shock. With the Asian economic crisis, in particular, having major deflationary consequences, this allowed US interest rates to remain considerably below what they would have been otherwise, especially considering truly extraordinary domestic borrowing demands and economic vigor. Momentously, the Federal Reserve responded aggressively by loosening credit conditions, giving priority to financial market tumult above the rapidly escalating US financial and economic bubble. With the double-effect of both collapsing currencies and domestic demand throughout Asia, imports of a vast array of goods and commodities, including technology components, were available to US consumers and manufacturers at sharply lower prices and in seemingly endless quantities. And while the Federal Reserve likely viewed this as a powerful force working against inflation, the truth was that this supply shock originating with the global crisis actually proved the catalyst for one of history's great money and credit inflations." TheStranger (4/21/2000; 18:41:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29148) Thanks, onlychild I thought Oro might have meant to say Jr., and I am not familiar with the referenced quote. onlychild (4/21/2000; 18:10:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 29147) The Stranger msg 29140 Stranger, the Morgan you refer to is J. Pierpont Morgan, who did indeed die in 1913. The Morgan that Oro referred to is J.P. (Jack) Morgan Jr., who died in 1943. I hope this clears up any perceived discrepancies. Leland (4/21/2000; 17:21:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 29146) I Put a Dot Instead of a Dash http://www.gmsresearch.com/fr_ov.htm For Ascani's Latest... Leland (4/21/2000; 17:19:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29145) A Reading Treat From Dan Ascani http://www.gmsresearch.com/fr.ov.htm (Taken from his April 19th report) "For gold, one must consider its potential as a store of value, its long-term support level of $250, and its Purchasing Power Parity number of $350 (calculated by the World Gold Council), and the potential as revealed by the charts (and in our monthly research) to rebound to $414. Rebound or not, gold stores value, and when gold lost hardly any value even as $2 trillion were wiped out of the equity markets the past few weeks, it emphasized the merits of considering diversifying a bit into this asset class, too. Assets reallocated into gold when stock market risk is high would not have lost $2 trillion. It was retained, for the most part, even with no net appreciation in the price of gold. There are other alternatives negatively correlated with the stock market, too, which provide defensive options during periods of high stock market risk." RossL (4/21/2000; 17:10:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29144) Econoclast http://www.nymex.com/ Some of your questions may be answered if you go to the NYMEX web page and browse around in there. Someone wishing to deliver gold for a futures contract must ship it to the approved warehouse in the approved form and meet the approved purity etc. etc. In my opinion the only reason that I would take delivery at COMEX would be if I was intending to sell it immediately. The level of COMEX stock seem to stay fairly constant for the most part. This means the sharks are trading between themselves and feeding on innocent suckers who wander in. If you buy 30 tons of gold, it will pressure the shorts no matter whether you buy it at the COMEX or from MK at USAGOLD! Good luck on your purchase of the 30 tons! Econoclast (4/21/2000; 16:18:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29143) Town Crier Do you know what level COMEX stocks are at? If they are short, does the gold have to be bought at the "SPOT" market?If I wanted to buy (I do want-if I could afford to buy) literally tons of gold, I wouldn't do it in the futures market unless I was trying to apply pressure to the shorts. Is that the only logical explanation for buying physical gold in this way? Please feel free to add any other thoughts you may have on this subject.Thanks.P.S. Is trying to take delivery of 30 tons going to apply pressure whether or not that is the intention.If gold has to be bought at spot to make delivery and that causes the price to go up, can't the holders of the long contracts cancel delivery and take cash profits on the price increase i.e. just one more bluff in a market full of them? tedw (4/21/2000; 16:16:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29142) Thirty pieces of Silver http://www.usagold.com Then Judas,which had betrayed him, when he saw that he wascondemned,repented himself, and brought again the thirty pieces of silver to the chief priests and elders. Saying, I have sinned in that I have betrayed the innocentblood. And they said,what is that to us? see thou to that?And he cast down the pieces of silver in the temple, and departed, and went and hanged himself.********************************************************What profit a man if he gain the whole world and lose his soul? TownCrier (4/21/2000; 16:05:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29141) Update on an interesting observation As the April contract month is nearing its close, delivery notices have exceeded 10% of the largest open interest figures we recall ever seeing for this specific contract during its prior days as the most actively traded contract. (By comparison, the active June gold contract currently has open interest of 81,500 positions.)So far, 9,900 April contracts have received notification for delivery...representing 990,000 troy ounces (30.8 tonnes) due to change ownership under the auspices of COMEX prior to April 28th.What an altogether odd way to acquire gold, wouldn't you agree? I can't help but wonder what must be going on behind the scenes such that acquistion has reached these levels on a *FUTURES* market as COMEX certainly is. TheStranger (4/21/2000; 12:53:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29140) Oro's #29003 Oro - Never hesitant to engage in a good debate, I'll throw in my two cents regarding your 29003. The U.S. has already broken the gold promise once in 1971. Ergo, any future official guarantee of gold-backing for the dollar would, per se, be worth precisely what the dollar itself is worth today, which is to say it would be worth the public perception, no more, no less. For this reason, only defacto parity (not dejure) can ever be credible, and defacto parity is precisely what we have been served up in recent years. This has been accomplished primarily by the steady hand of a watchful Federal Reserve.You say, "Fiat debt money is incapable of maintaining value without a fix to a real item." By definition alone this statement is true. However, especially in the wake of 1971, any PROMISE to keep the dollar thusly fixed would be suspect anyway. All that can really ever count is a PRACTICE of keeping the dollar fixed. And, much to the bemusement of countless gold bugs, this practice has been accomplished with remarkable effectiveness in recent years. What is now in question is whether the Greenspan Fed has finally erred in its mission by allowing the recent explosion of monetary growth. I believe recent reports of reawakening inflation in the United States argue persuasively that the answer to this important question is yes.By the way, Morgan died in 1913. The Fed didn't begin operations until January, 1914.Thanks for all of your wonderful posts. I value your insight enormously! Hill Billy Mitchell (4/21/2000; 12:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29139) Interest rate spread (30 yr T-Bond vs 3-month T-Bill Comments will follow on next post.Please note that when the number below is in brackets it represents an inversion in interest ratesInterest Rate Spread (30-year T-Bond vs. 3-month T-BillFrom January 3, 2000 to April 19, 200001-03-00 1.1301-04-00 1.1001-05-00 1.1701-07-00 1.1701-10-00 1.1701-11-00 1.2501-12-00 1.2601-13-00 1.2401-14-00 1.2801-18-00 1.1901-19-00 1.2101-20-00 1.2601-21-00 1.2401-24-00 1.1001-25-00 1.0701-26-00 1.0201-27-00 0.9401-28-00 0.8001-31-00 0.7302-01-00 0.7202-02-00 0.6602-03-00 0.5402-04-00 0.5602-07-00 0.6202-08-00 0.5302-09-00 0.6602-10-00 0.6802-11-00 0.6302-14-00 0.5402-15-00 0.5102-16-00 0.5402-17-00 0.4902-18-00 0.4102-22-00 0.2602-23-00 0.3202-24-00 0.3202-25-00 0.3802-28-00 0.3602-29-00 0.3703-01-00 0.4003-02-00 0.3903-03-00 0.3403-06-00 0.3103-07-00 0.3303-08-00 0.3403-09-00 0.3403-10-00 0.3203-13-00 0.2803-14-00 0.2403-15-00 0.2203-16-00 0.1803-17-00 0.1203-20-00 0.3603-21-00 0.3703-22-00 0.3903-23-00 0.3503-24-00 0.4503-27-00 0.1103-28-00 0.1003-29-00 0.1003-30-00 0.0103-31-00 (0.04)04-03-00 (0.03)04-04-00 (0.06)04-05-00 (0.05)04-06-00 (0.08)04-07-00 (0.19)04-10-00 (0.16)04-11-00 (0.06)04-12-00 0.0104-13-00 0.0004-14-00 (0.02)04-17-00 0.1004-18-00 0.1104-19-00 0.04 Goldmak (4/21/2000; 12:22:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 29138) interesting point/ repost from Ktico kapex (art; No doubt!) ID#275254:Copyright © 2000 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedI just wanted to clarify that the gumint can create $$$ out of thin air by buying ANYTHING! If they buy anything with created $$ they are increasing the supply of fiat! That is not to say offsetting a purchase of some with the proceeds from another sale. But when you buy back t-bonds, bills and notes in the billions you are just creating FIAT! You might argue that the t-bonds,bills,notes were sold in the first place and that is true, but that money was spent on govt spending for whatever! So whatever $$$ they took out of the money supply in the first place was put right back in to pay for ( deficit mainly ) roads, bridges, pork barrel spending, whatever. It came out of the system and was put right back! When they buy this stuff back they are printing FIAT! Pnony money! Paper! Very inflationary! As we all know! gidsek (4/21/2000; 12:14:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29137) Hudson So now I suppose you'll want to know what "ISO" stands for..."Is there no end to these "TLAs" " gidsek wailed...TLA= "three letter acronyms"have a great day....gidsek :-) gidsek (4/21/2000; 12:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29136) Hudson Bankof/forInternationalSettlementsBIS-----------"CHF" is the ISO symbol for the Swiss Franc I believe...ala' "USD"gidsek Mr Gresham (4/21/2000; 11:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29135) Oro comparisons Oro's detective work reminds me of that legend whose name is the synonym for masterful sleuthing: Sherlock.Only, as we read Conan Doyle, we can see (and enjoy) the expert hand of the writer, setting up the story, and burying (some of) the clues for us to find.Oro, on the other hand, works with a "mystery" others have created, whose clues are hidden "in plain sight" in the maze of statistics and propaganda we are bombarded with daily.He uses Edison's (or was it Einstein's?) formula of "98% perspiration and 2% inspiration" -- with Oro I'm sure the 2% grows to somewhere in double digits -- combined with a passion for justice for lots of the people trampled by "the great game" of finance, to get at an exciting synthesis at the possibly provable meeting edge of conspiracy theory and economic history.Unlike Conan Doyle, we CAN check his research and visit the clues for ourselves, and review his synthesis. Time and approximate astuteness are what we require, and I feel remiss in not allocating the former, while fearing I lack the latter to keep up with him should I spend the time. canamami (4/21/2000; 10:43:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29134) Plaudits and Reply to Oro - #29003 Oro,A true tour de force. One can never view the economy/markets the same way after reading your works and those of FOA/Trail Guide/Another.I've previously posted my affinity for some of Karl Popper's theories - for example, the role of falsifiability in assessing hypotheses. Are there events, the occurrence of which (or perhaps the failure of such events to occur within a particular timeframe) which would cause you to reject what you have set out?To be the devil's advocate, I guess one possible critique would turn on the number of different regimes which would have to take part in, and to preserve the secrecy of, this sub rosa, quasi-"gold standard" (gold settlement based on an unknown, secret "official" exchange rate). Presumably, most of the economically important countries would have to take part. These countries have had changes in government and in underlying ideology, as well as in the membership of bureaucrats in the central banks. How would this secret, semi-official gold exchange rate not have been disclosed sooner(at least prior to Another's posts), given the numbers of people involved? A further possible critique: Why would American offcialdom knowingly pursue policies leading to the deindustrialization and the decline of the US?Again, thank you for your excellent post. RossL (04/21/00; 10:15:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 29133) Federal Reserve monetary policy is, in essence, a "good cop, bad cop" con game. http://www.mises.org/ ------From: The Free Market May 2000PUBLISHED MONTHLY BY THE MISES INSTITUTETHE FEDERAL RESERVE AND POLITICAL CORRUPTION by Thomas J. DeLorenzoLIKE A MAN WHO DOUSES A LARGE pile of rags with gasoline and then warns of a fire hazard, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has begun issuing dire warnings of impending inflation after orchestrating several years of explosive monetary growth. To some observers this behavior is just the result of the difficulties inherent in central planning. But the real reason for it was explained by Congressman Ron Paul (R-Tex.): The Fed is a political institution that is used to manipulate the economy for the benefit of White House incumbents at the expense of the rest of society.As long as Clinton was fearful of impeachment, Greenspan kept the monetary spigots wide open, even while voicing "concern" about an "irrationally exuberant" economy. With Clinton out of the woods and the presidential race in full swing, Greenspan is attempting to reverse the irreversible economic forces that he set in motion over the past two and a half years.Despite the phony proclamations by economists that the Fed is an "independent" institution, it has never been independent of politics. In 1935 Franklin D. Roosevelt "packed" the Fed's board of governors with political hacks just as he would later pack the US Supreme Court. FDR appointed Marriner Eccles as Fed Chairman even though Eccles had no financial background and lacked even a college degree. In reality, the Fed was run by Eccles's political mentor, Treasury Secretary Henry Morganthau, Jr., which is to say, it was run by Roosevelt.The Fed has almost always been run the way Greenspan is running it--to accommodate the president's political preferences. In an April 1978 article in the Journal of Monetary Economics the late Robert Weintraub showed how the Fed fundamentally shifted its monetary policy course in 1953, 1961, 1969, 1974, and 1977--all years in which the presidency changed hands. For example, Eisenhower wanted slower monetary growth; the money supply grew by 1.73 percent during his first administration, the slowest rate in a decade.President Kennedy wanted faster money creation; from January 1961 to November 1963 the money supply grew by 2.31 percent. Lyndon Johnson desired even faster monetary growth to finance the Vietnam war; money supply growth more than doubled during his presidential term to 5.0 percent. These widely varying rates of monetary growth all occurred under the same Fed Chairman, William McChesney Martin. Martin's successor, Arthur Burns, was such a staunch supporter of Richard Nixon that he abandoned his professional credibility by endorsing wage and price controls. Even though Burns's staff advised him that the money supply was forecast to grow by 10.5 percent by the third quarter of 1972, he advocated even faster money creation. The growth rate of the money supply in 1972 was the fastest for any one year since the end of World War II and helped assure Nixon's reelectionand the stagflation that followed.Gerald Ford wanted slower monetary growth to quell his predecessor's inflation, so Burns complied with a 4.7 percent growth rate. But when Jimmy Carter was elected Burns turned around and gave him what he wanted--an almost doubling of the monetary growth rate. Bums was quite adept at keeping his job by kowtowing to his political masters, This kind of behavior continued throughout the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton administrations.Federal Reserve monetary policy is, in essence, a "good cop, bad cop" con game. In addition to generating a political business cycle for the benefit of the men who appoint them to their jobs, Fed chairmen also serve as political scapegoats when things go wrong. As described by economist Edward Kane: "Whenever monetary policies are popular, incumbents can claim that their influence was crucial in their adaptation. On the other hand, when monetary policies prove unpopular, they can blame everything on a stubborn Federal Reserve and claim further that things would have been worse if they 'had not pressed Fed officials at every opportunity.'"In return for this favor the Fed is allowed to amass a gigantic slush fund by earning interest income from the government securities it purchases through open market operations. Since the Fed earns money by buying securities but loses income by selling them, there is a built-in incentive for inflationary money creation.A 1996 General Accounting Office audit revealed that the Fed's $2 billion annual budget was used to employ 25,000 well-paid employees, to operate its own air force of 47 Lear jets and small cargo planes, and to maintain a large fleet of automobiles (including personal cars for 59 Fed bank managers). A full-time curator oversees the Fed's collection of expensive paintings and sculptures.The number of Fed employees earning more than $125,000 per year more than doubled (from 35 to 72) from 1993 to 1996, according to the GAO. Even the head janitor, known as the "support services director," was paid $163,800 in salary plus fringe benefits. Millions of dollars are spent on professional memberships, entertainment, and travel.The Fed operates for the benefit of its executive branch controllers, the banking industry, and Fed employees themselves, at the expense of the rest of society which suffers from the economic instability it creates. Worse yet, many Americans have been conned into believlng that the Fed Chairman operates like the Wizard of Oz, hiding behind dark curtains, pulling levers and pushing buttons to make the economy operate smoothly. So-called "scientific socialism" may have been the most absurd and destructive idea of the twentieth century, but it is nevertheless the guiding ideology of central banking. · FM Hudson (04/21/00; 10:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29132) Henri: BIS and CHF What is the BIS and CHF? Chrusos (4/21/2000; 9:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29131) DM Euro Query URL Sorry PH in LA I only have a photocopy of the article no URLChrusos milos (4/21/2000; 9:30:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29130) Perplexed Sir, true to your handle you are perplexed in your virtual reality.One should segregate God, Country and Worth. Good Friday and Harry Easter to you. PH in LA (4/21/2000; 8:57:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29129) New DM to replace the Euro? Chrusos (4/21/2000; 4:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29118)New DM to replace the Euro?Thanks, Chrusos.Sure hope FOA and/or ORO comments on your post! Would you mind posting a link? VanRip (4/21/2000; 8:57:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29128) African Currency http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_721000/721707.stm If successful, the countries discussed below could grow to a block of at least 14. Wonder why gold is not mentioned. I'll be the first, perhaps, to give the new currency a name.......the afro. >>>Six West African states have agreed to create a new shared currency in the region by the year 2003. Ghana, Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Gambia and Guinea - agreed to set up the new currency at a summit of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) in the Ghanaian capital, Accra. At present, eight francophone countries of West Africa share a common currency in the CFA franc. Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings said globalisation and trends towards the establishment of large economic blocs made the need for integration among the anglophone countries all the more necessary. "Unless this is done, our economies will remain weak, fragmented, uncompetitive and marginalised," he said. Ghana's Finance Minister Kwamena Ahwoi said the new monetary zone might eventually be fused with the CFA zone. Tough criteria The BBC business correspondent says that the convergence criteria for the new currency may be set too high for many of the six countries to meet. The primary criteria specify that inflation must be reduced to under 5% by 2003. The countries must also ensure they have enough foreign currency reserves to cover at least three months of imports by the end of 2000, and six months of imports by the end of 2003. Central bank financing of each country's budget deficit would be limited to 10% of the previous year's tax revenue. "These stringent targets will require rigorous discipline and prudent economic management on the part of all member countries," Mr Rawlings said.<<< Henri (4/21/2000; 7:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29127) Town Crier Post 29061 You said:Keep in mind that this is altogether different than foreign owned gold that was brought here for temporary safe keeping, and then repatriated. That gold would not show up in these figures because it would have the proper paperwork pedigree for customs such that it would never have been counted as an American asset or good to begin with. We can't count exports that were never offically ours.________________________________I think what would drive the decision to list gold sent here for "safekeeping" and then returned to its rightful owner as an "export" would be whether it was listed as an "import" when it first arrived. Who knows what kind of shenanigans the financial world was up to back then? It may have been entered as an import when it arrived to give the appearence of US accumulation and in fact strengthen the US$ when it may in fact have just been a smoke and mirrors play.The "balance of trade" books extend back for more than one year. If the gold was listed as an import when it arrived, it would have to be listed as an "export" when it departed.As for the issue of a large secret hidden stash of gold out west somewhere, It seems possible that it could be McArhyr's gold recovered from the Phillipines before Marcos. Since it was purportedly originally Chinese gold having been plundered by the Japanese and buried in the Phillipines, it could well have been arranged to be returned to the original owners in a negotited exchange for "campaign funds? If such a stash existed it was no doubt a secret from even the administrations and president's. Only a "need to know" basis I believe is the terminology. That whole cover was blown when the ex-CIA chief GB sr. took office and knew about it. If he had free reign to use it as he saw fit then all subsequent presidents would have access to play fast and loose with it as well. Hmmm. Who started this ESF thing anyway?If such a hoard of gold was brought here from the Phillipines it would have to have been escorted by US Navy vessels...submarine or otherwise. Does anyone on the list know someone who was in the Navy in the Pacific back then? Mid 40's to early 50's. Perhaps they remember strange escort duties of a top secret nature?If the gold that is being exported came from came from European CB's originally for safekeeping, it would probably have been during the same period of time during the build-up of the Soviet military and their nuclear arsenal. perhaps before the invasion of Prague and the "cold war".Any gold import data available from that time period? Perplexed (4/21/2000; 7:58:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29126) green pig totalamature #29104 Total Amature I hope that what you say is true about wanting to learn. I am a new poster, but along time lurker. I have gained a lot of respect and admiration and sensed a lot caring from most of the participants. To think that this "classic letter" from " Father David" has been around and influencing peoples perspective of God for 70 years is truly distrubing. When I look at the history of the United States and what has been accomplished in so short a time I stand in awe, admiration, and thanksgiving for the leadership sacrifice and heroism of our forefathers. The history of the quest for the "riches" of silver and gold and carnage it has visted on the earth in the name of "God" and Country allows me a truly wonderful perspective from which to view the creation of a nation which by any strech of the imagination must be classified as one of Gods greatest blessings. The genius of the men who devised and created the Federal Reserve has not been a curse but a gift. The removing of our money from the daily "discussions" of partisan politicians, represents the stabilizing factor which has lifted the standard of life on planet earth to a level exceeding anything common sense says was possible, and in, when compared with history, a blink of an eye. Until the Fed was created this nation suffered a recession about every 20years and a depression about every 60. Most of us were dirt poor, and the banker, by controlling the gold backed money supply, controlled who prospered and who starved, who kept their land and who relinquished it to the banks shareholders. Our "green pig" as you refered to it was not and is not wealth, but merely a symbol of wealth. It has been the basis for the creation of true wealth, a standard of living unsurpased in the history of mankind, a gain in the life expectancy, health, well being and libertynecessary for mankinds next step down our eternal road to self determination, our blessing and obligation as beings created in the likeness and image of our creator. Sure, at the present time we are in a cage of debt, a cage made of paper. We need no silver or gold to get out of it. The wealth which was created with its use is all around us, regardless of what happens to the paper cage, the wealth is not going to vanish. There is not one major city in the United States which is not worth many times the national debt. We are wondering why gold has lost its value as wealth as we walk out of our climate controlled home, get into our climate controlled car, and go to our climate controlled supermarket to purchase a vast variety of merchandise with our "fiat" money. This money may be exchanged for anything of value in the confines of this nation by anyone who is fortunate enough of possess it. So long as this situation is maintained, our money is better than gold. Thanks to everyone for contributing to my education, hope I didn't disturb too many people which my first post. Yes, I have some physical gold and a couple of options, but I am not going to set around and cry if either of them lose a little of their value. So long as I enjoy the health and opportunity to work and replenish my resources, I will continue to count my many blessings, and one near the top of the list, must be the creation of our nation. Perplexed Hill Billy Mitchell (4/21/2000; 7:48:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 29125) Correction of post #29121 Terrible mistake:Should be Release date 4-20-00for rates on Wednesday, 04-19-00Sorry!Promised 3-month vs 30 yr spreads will come later todayhbm Hill Billy Mitchell (4/21/2000; 7:44:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29124) Interest rate spread 30-yr Treasury Bond vs Fed Funds rate/updated 01-03-00 1.1801-04-00 1.1501-05-00 1.2301-06-00 1.0401-07-00 0.9401-10-00 0.8501-11-00 1.0501-12-00 1.1201-13-00 1.0701-14-00 1.1301-18-00 0.92%01-19-00 1.2501-20-00 1.3001-21-00 1.3501-24-00 1.1201-25-00 1.1801-26-00 1.0801-27-00 0.9201-28-00 0.8701-31-00 0.6202-01-00 0.6402-02-00 0.6802-03-00 0.4602-04-00 0.5302-07-00 0.5802-08-00 0.5502-09-00 0.5602-10-00 0.5602-11-00 0.5802-14-00 0.4302-15-00 0.4102-16-00 0.6002-17-00 0.5702-18-00 0.4602-22-00 0.2702-23-00 0.3702-24-00 0.3702-25-00 0.4402-28-00 0.3502-29-00 0.3003-01-00 0.3803-02-00 0.3903-03-00 0.4103-06-00 0.4303-07-00 0.4803-08-00 0.4003-09-00 0.3703-10-00 0.4403-13-00 0.3603-14-00 0.3103-15-00 0.1703-16-00 0.2803-17-00 0.2503-20-00 0.1703-21-00 0.1603-22-00 (0.05)%03-23-00 (0.12)03-24-00 0.0203-27-00 (0.08)03-28-00 (0.04)03-29-00 0.0103-30-00 (0.22)03-31-00 (0.33)04-03-00 (0.31)04-04-00 (0.21)04-05-00 (0.27)04-06-00 (0.25)04-07-00 (0.24)04-10-00 (0.36)04-11-00 (0.20)04-12-00 (0.09)04-13-00 (0.16)04-14-00 (0.19)04-17-00 (0.26)04-18-00 (0.01)04-19-00 (0.08) Henri (4/21/2000; 7:36:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29123) Black Blade 29119 As for the Swiss sale, since they are the country with the highest per capita gold holdings in the world with no close second, they can well afford to contribute some of their largesse to a good cause. I think the jury is still out on what that cause will be but the gold sales will go through the BIS and disappear.The Swiss are still a hard currency society and the remaining gold reserves still will keep the CHF a "hard asset class (although CHF not connected to gold...has not been for years). Hill Billy Mitchell (4/21/2000; 7:20:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 29122) Contractionary levels For those who might be interested I have been doing as thorough a study as I can on this "thing" interest rate inversions.I am getting close to being able to offer my observations and provide some meaningful data so that we can have a more intelligent discussion on this matter.While I have been working on the historical records I have kept up with what the Fed has been currently doing.Just thought I might report that If "contractionary levels" are when the Three-month Treasury Bill rates exceed the composite rate for long Term Treasury Bonds, then we are getting dangerously close that senario even now.With the help of others on this forum I would we would be able to factor in these new moves by the Treasury Department in the buying back of Long-bonds and refunding the debt with short-term monies. Of course this would distort the relationship among the various rates because the Treasury is manipulating the supply and demand of the various bonds. I'll not touch upon the Higher danger of finance long-term expenditures with short-term debt as is the case when the Treasury makes such moves. I would not think that the Bond buyers turn a blind eye to this and neither long-bonds nor short bonds will be worth much when true interest rate pressures make themselves known.A post of the spread between the three-month T-Bill and the Thirty-year T-Bond will follow this oneHBM Hill Billy Mitchell (4/21/2000; 6:57:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 29121) Official release http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/ Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release Release Date: April 19, 2000 Rates for Tuesday, April 20, 2000Federal funds 5.93Treasury constant maturities: 3-month 5.8110-year 5.9920-year 6.1830-year 5.85upside down spread FF vs long bond = (.08%) Goldsun (4/21/2000; 6:36:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29120) Nemo's Nemesis As I recall, Capt N had a very specific desire for gold. He delivered it to shadowy figures to be used for unspecified political subversion as retribution for his personal suffering.If possessed of great quantities of free time, I might study Verne. He may have had some actual knowledge.Goldsun Black Blade (4/21/2000; 5:39:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29119) Morning Wakeup Call! Source: Bridge news Moscow--Apr 20--Russia's largest platinum group metals producer Norilsk Nickel has resumed platinum exports, Norilsk spokesman Anatoly Komrakov said Thursday. He said Norilsk was able to do this after Russia's sole PGM exporter Almazyuvelir export had obtained the necessary export license. (Story .19675)Black Blade: Oh really? We shall see. Maybe had to shake down some Russian Mafia types or use slave labor. We'll shall see. Heard this same old tired line before.Canada's Placer not ruling out further gold hedging in future Toronto--Apr 20--Jay Taylor, the president and CEO of Canada's Placer Dome Inc., on Thursday told Bridge News that the company's plan to suspend its future gold hedging activities may be flexible and that he would not rule out a shift in strategy in the future. However, Taylor added that Placer Dome would stick by its plan to reduce gold hedging at the present time. (Story .24046)Black Blade: Do I detect a bit of wavering here? Hmmmm………..SWISS GOLD: SNB sale unopposed, likely to proceed early May Zurich--Apr 20--Thursday's deadline to register a public petition opposing the sale of 1,300 tonnes of Swiss National Bank gold reserves passed without objection, paving the way for gold sales to start in early May. SNB spokesman Werner Abegg said the currency law amendment would come into effect in May and the bank could then proceed with selling some of its reserves. (Story .16986)Black Blade: No surprise here. Socialism wins one - now crank up the printing presses! Chrusos (4/21/2000; 4:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29118) New DM to replace the Euro? I have been asked to comment on an article (apparently from a briefing service only affordable by top corporations) which, in a nutshell, indicates the following:-The IMF figures for gold holdings reflect the gold of the European Monetary Institute value as $26.833 mill which at the end of 97 reduce to nil. Only $6,700 mill are transferred to its successor the ECB. Correspondingly the German holdings increase from their average dollar value over the 93-97 period of $8.880 mill to $31.203 mill – close to the approx $20,000 mill of the "missing" EMI reserves.The physical quantity of the Bundesbank holdings seem to increase from 95.18 mill ounces to 118.98 ounces in December 98. (The quantities of gold and $ values do not seem to tally to this novice.) The article further states that the German foreign currency holdings are depleted by $7,711 mill last quarter 98 and a further $11,052 mill first quarter 99 indicating that this was used to pay for the extra gold holdings. This figure roughly tallies with the $20.000 mill above.There are further facts and details covering levels of disclosure before and after monetary union but the above is the substance.The article then refers to a response of Dr Hans Tietmeyer at a meeting in London some years ago where he was asked directly is Germany taking precautions against a possible failure in the collective currency. These precautions include the printing of new DM notes stored in the Hartz mountains. Instead of dismissing the question Tietmeyer replied directly that it was perfectly possible that such precautions had been or would be taken.The article then argues that if the progressive collapse in the Euro ceased to be acceptable to Germany it could launch the new DM unilaterally leaving the rest of Europe with little choice but to accept new DM in place of the degraded Euro. There are some further interesting aspects but the article concludes that the Dollar will be dethroned not by the Euro but by the new DM. It further speculates that Russia will endeavor to be brought in as Germanys partner.What do the experts think? Are the figures correct? Is there a third force in the Euro v dollar/yen currency wars the new DM? (A horn as it were hiding among ten horns which, when they are broken off, becomes a powerful horn?) Aristotle thank you for graciously commenting on my post to Oldgold – it gives frozen lurkers courage to draw nearer the fire if one of the stalwarts acknowledges a contribution. I'm also till chortling away with your 28948 – "those who are throwing themselves on the spears of bad investments." while I treat myself for the odd spear wound. Good one.Also to Ph in LA and the rest who responded to Oldgold simply superb writing that adds luster to this fair forum.Chrusos –International cluedo watcher Chrusos (4/21/2000; 4:32:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29117) New DM to replace the Euro? I have been asked to comment on an article (apparently from a briefing service only affordable by top corporations) which, in a nutshell, indicates the following:-The IMF figures for gold holdings reflect the gold of the European Monetary Institute value as $26.833 mill which at the end of 97 reduce to nil. Only $6,700 mill are transferred to its successor the ECB. Correspondingly the German holdings increase from their average dollar value over the 93-97 period of $8.880 mill to $31.203 mill – close to the approx $20,000 mill of the "missing" EMI reserves.The physical quantity of the Bundesbank holdings seem to increase from 95.18 mill ounces to 118.98 ounces in December 98. (The quantities of gold and $ values do not seem to tally to this novice.) The article further states that the German foreign currency holdings are depleted by $7,711 mill last quarter 98 and a further $11,052 mill first quarter 99 indicating that this was used to pay for the extra gold holdings. This figure roughly tallies with the $20.000 mill above.There are further facts and details covering levels of disclosure before and after monetary union but the above is the substance.The article then refers to a response of Dr Hans Tietmeyer at a meeting in London some years ago where he was asked directly is Germany taking precautions against a possible failure in the collective currency. These precautions include the printing of new DM notes stored in the Hartz mountains. Instead of dismissing the question Tietmeyer replied directly that it was perfectly possible that such precautions had been or would be taken.The article then argues that if the progressive collapse in the Euro ceased to be acceptable to Germany it could launch the new DM unilaterally leaving the rest of Europe with little choice but to accept new DM in place of the degraded Euro. There are some further interesting aspects but the article concludes that the Dollar will be dethroned not by the Euro but by the new DM. It further speculates that Russia will endeavor to be brought in as Germanys partner.What do the experts think? Are the figures correct? Is there a third force in the Euro v dollar/yen currency wars the new DM? (A horn as it were hiding among ten horns which, when they are broken off, becomes a powerful horn?) Aristotle thank you for graciously commenting on my post to Oldgold – it encourages frozen lurkers to come in from the cold nearer the fire if one of the stalwarts acknowledges a contribution. I'm also still chortling away with your 28948 – "those who are throwing themselves on the spears of bad investments" while I treat myself for the odd spear wound. Good one.Also to Ph in LA and the rest who responded to Oldgold simply superb writing that adds luster to this fair forum.Chrusos –International cluedo watcher YGM (4/21/2000; 1:46:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29116) Anyone Noticed...... NIKKI.......Bleeding! Down 706 points........ ThaiGold (4/21/2000; 1:34:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 29115) Re: Dollar Devaluation Questions Attn: totalamateur (4/20/2000; 20:52:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29112) ==========================================================...4-20-2000To: totalamateur Re: Your post #29112It doesn't seem likely that the US would ever devalue theUS$dollar if inflation should skyrocket. Because they won'tever admit that it has skyrocketed nor even exists at all.Their fakery in adjusting and manipulating the CPI indexproves that well enough.There have often been rumors as you mentioned, of new US$currency having been printed for various scenarios. Mostsuch rumors allude to drug-traffic-money-laundering etc toreplace zillions of dirty US$100 bills with new-coloreddirty US$100 bills to somehow thwart the trafficers. That'sall hogwash too. Just ask anyone, at the highest levels ofgovernment, who are in-charge of the drug trafficking. Thereis no-way they would make such an effor to thwart it.Perhaps the rumor you heard, relates to the newest batch ofUS$100 bills. They have *not* been printed yet. But will besoon, when the Price of Gold is driven down to their goal.At that time, they intend to print them on GoldLeaf, insteadof costly linen paper.So, I guess you have answered your own question: That typeof Gold backing, with the correct glue, would do the trick.Or be a trick. Probably both. Caveat Emptor. Insist uponReal paper US$ notes in all of your future transactions.Regarding the repayment of Old US$ debts using New US$ billsis problematic. Would anyone (wage earners etc) have any ofthem left, of either kind, to make their mortgage payments.Or would any of the Banks still be in business, to acceptthier monthly installments. It's very unlikely. So do notworry about that. Banks that remained open, would probablyinsist upon repayment in the form of Old US$ bills. And theywould be readily available for you to purchase, at theirCurrency-Exchange-Window, to your left. At their usual fee.Mexico devalues it's currency frequently, so we might learnfrom them, how they do it: For one thing, most banks theredo not extend credit to Joe SixCervaza. Nope. Houses theremust be paid-for upfront. In cash. Which is no problemo forany of their government officials, police, bureaucrats, ordrug trafficers. Just ask anyone of them, who are yourneighbors, if you live in a Mexican well-to-do area, like Idid once.One of my neighbors was the town's Mayor. One day, his soncame over to ask me for advice about which computer to buy.He was on his way to the USA to purchase one. Being the sonof a connected bureaucrat, he already had the necessary andcoveted Border-Crosser Green Card issued to him. When Iasked him how much he planned to spend on a new computer,(about US$1500 he said), and then asked him where or how heplanned to convert his Peso's into US$... he just reacheddown into his pocket, saying: "Mom's taken it out of oursavings already", ... he pulled out five Kruggarands andshowing them to me, then asked me if I thought they wouldbe enough.So, to answer your question, perhaps this helps. The Mexicopeople know how to deal with devaluations. Asians too. Andnow you know, as well.Cordially.ThaiGold...=========================================================== ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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