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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/21/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Zenidea (10/21/00; 23:20:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39630) Thanks for your kind words Mr Gresham. They say death sould come to a person like a good nights sleep after a hard days work and in my first aid they said that there really is only two ways in the end one passes away dispite reasons like dehydration , cancer etc , i.e either, circulation or respiration. I guess one or an autopsy will never really uncover the measure of ones intent. Murry had a heart of Gold , immmmm lost thoughts, just speechless . Thanks my cyber friend. Mr Gresham (10/21/00; 22:46:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 39629) Zenidea Sorry to hear about your mate. I'll bet you were and are a good mate yourself, and there are plenty who appreciate what you do for them. I'm glad you're here with us. Zenidea (10/21/00; 22:27:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39628) Just more waffle. Hi all, Had a really tough week ,a good mate was found in the middle of the Aussie desert by police dead from de-hydration alone in tent. So the emotional roller coaster has been abit stray. He said before he left a couple of strange things as a result of a family separation , and I just patted him on his back and said as men usualy do , to the effect "Talk sence mate , get it togeather". So I quess I have been feeling dam sorry for myself and guilty that i didnt actively/empathically listen to him at the time :(. Enough said . End of drinking binge.Black Blade where are you these days buddy. I am in the middle of making arrangement to travel to HK around Jan/Feb ( holidays ) and am joining a local Metal detecting group here in Perth. I phoned up and they have 160 active members which blew me away , indeed the club is only 15 minutes drive from my home, surprise surprise and the average member age is between 60 and 70, so good heavens I can imagine the wisdom and experience I might glean from that . Wow ! at 40 I will be the baby . The plan this time is still to look for that forbidden tonnes the Japanese were supposed to have left, on Lamma Island.( Remember Leigh) ? and to dive the shorelines ( new experience ). I dont know how many of you go Gold metal detecting, in your spare time , but I can assure, that that Signal or Hum of the Universe as i call it of gold once the ear is tuned in is like a cure for any phyciatric condition. smiles.Gold cures depression fast !. Get yea some. TownCrier (10/21/00; 21:44:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 39627) Sir Canuck, you are probably thinking of the Dale Henderson (et al) paper, IFDP #582 http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/pubs/ifdp/1997/582/default.htm You can download it from this page which provides the abstract. turkey hunter (10/21/00; 21:19:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 39626) @canuck Hey Canuck this isn't the site you requested but I think it might have good info concerning how the central banks are buying the mines by forcing them to go bankrupt. The site is www.womensgroup.org/ it is done by a free lance reporter by the name of Joan Veon. She attends all the meetings held by NWO people and the UN. She had quite a few stories on Worldnetdaily around 3-4 weeks ago. Go to that site and scroll down the left side until you see a story called, He Who Has the Gold Makes the Rules. Turkey Hunter Peter Asher (10/21/00; 21:06:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 39625) Gandalf The pigeon has flown! Canuck (10/21/00; 21:00:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39624) To the 'old' posters on the forum Do any of you guys/gals have the link on that 58 page .PDFgovernment report?It was posted here a year, maybe a year and a half ago. I think I had it for a long time but I 'lost' my PC a few months ago.If I recall the 'jist' was to keep the POG strained and contained forcing miners to hedge, slowly bankrupting them, nationalizing and ultimately controlling gold supply.I'd like to review that document to see how this charade may be playing out over the last year or so.Thanks in advance.Canuck. SteveH (10/21/00; 20:53:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39623) HBM & Auspec Numbers are Auspec's comments. Mine are starred.1) If a link between Gold and Oil has existed that simple fact would provide strong evidence to support ANOTHER's advice that we should observe the POO as an indicator of a coming change in the POG.** At least three of the charts, especially when 2000 numbers are projected show a break from traditional numbers. What is most clear is the high degree of positive correlation of gold and oil. Gold is now the lagger; oil the leader. I view this as stress on gold. The greater the disparity, the greater the stress. Therefore, the higher gold goes, the faster gold will reverse and the higher it will go. I see final chess moves being made by players in gold and oil and derivatives. Only observations, mind you, but as I have always maintained, the news about gold and oil has been crescendoing for quit a while and appears to be in a too-late-to-stop-now mode. As much as I hate to see this happen, the cooberations of news from all quarters supports a convergence on change sooner than later (before election maybe or just after). Volatility in the markets is the biggest gauge of all of this and oil is always there keeping the pressure on. 2) If the POG has been the price directional leader for Oil in the past, but they change roles in leading and following, while a link between the two continues to exist we will have valuable empirical evidence to confirm that ANOTHER has been right all along in his "Oil for Gold" scenario.** The link is broken in the sense of the chart. Oil has broken the bond, but herein lies the key. I believe the chart relationship is broken; not the actual real world relationship, meaning: the higher oil goes, the quicker and higher any chart reestablishment will occur. In other words, think of the winding spring. Gold and oil were content until 1996. Then something changed and oil decided to break with gold (on the charts). That continues (on the charts) today. But the relationship that isn't reflected in the charts still exists; only in the backdrop. Once this is reestablished it will be at much higher levels. 3) If a link has existed all along and the link is broken we could all be fools to hope that Gold would ever find its value from our historical perspective.** I believe this is the opposite theory to the above, one which we must continue to visit. I don't believe the facts support this as even though there are record divestitures of gold, there are record purchases. The noise made by sellers shows their interest is to hide the truth of the buyers, imo. 4) If a link has existed all along and the link is broken we will have confirmation that GATA is justified in its claim that the POG has been manipulated or that the POO has been manipulated or both.**Proof no. Statistical indicators, yes. Proof would be a person who is doing it comes forward and tells all on Rosie or Oprah. These folks all have plausible deniability. 5) If it turns out that Oil can rise significantly without a corresponding rise in the POG given a reasonable response time then we will know that either oil is no longer a significant factor in price inflation or that Gold has truly been relegated to the status of a commodity and nothing more or both. ** I disagree. The higher oil goes, the quicker and higher gold will turn around once it resets. IMO. Auspec,What we have, I believe, is croneyism(sp?), insider info governement to private industry, private industry to private industry, private industry to government. We have a lack of proper enforcement and investigation, we lack a press with the courage to investigate, we have TV money programs that hire the foxes to comment on the hen house, without full or even partial disclosure of conflict of interests or positions. We have some folks who are whizes at computer spreadsheets and AI market analysis and some very bright but amoral Harvard and Wharton School MBA's who need to get a real job. Then we have the political motivation to have a legacy of the longest bull market ever. We have governmental agencies whose employees must pack a lunch and don't buy new clothes or all live in apartments and don't buy gas to go to work. When you add it all up, we have people who have instutionalized fraud and or dishonesty and follow the pack. Finally, we have excess credit with no place to go except the markets. Along with that some have figured out how to play the paper and computers to make the markets move short term at critically timed points of trade. Other than that, there really isn't much of a problem.Speaking of unconstitutional. Not many courts will take that on. The court system costs too much. Corporations must hire lawyers, law is too complicated for Pro Per defense. Constitutional issues must normally go to the higher courts for proper resolution. Cavan Man (10/21/00; 20:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 39622) Shifty In like manner to your Stetson, the English Bowler (just turned 150 years) was designed to protect the noggins of fox hunters from low branches during the chase. It is also quite stout. SHIFTY (10/21/00; 20:03:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 39621) Auspec / WWJD CLHE-HoF " VICTORIOUS " Auspec: Well I guess we showed those guys a thing or two!he he heIt hurts to laugh.$hifty SHIFTY (10/21/00; 19:46:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39620) PeterAsher Your danger e-mail Peter: I did get your Danger e-mail when I got up to go boar hunting. You were right! I was injured but not by a hog. A tree branch fell on my head, and when it did it hit me so hard it caused the butt of my holstered .357 to catch me just under my ribs. OUCH!! It left me with a good size bump on my head , and some very sore ribs. My Stetson did not have a mark on it. Go figure. We did not see any hogs, but the place was torn up from them. Some of the tracks I saw looked almost as large as a cow. The mosquitoes were world class in size and numbers. We were sitting just on the edge of a large swamp. I think I will try again later this week , when I can move without pain.$hifty lamprey_65 (10/21/00; 19:37:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39619) From the latest Privateer http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html "The U.S. cannot afford a lower Dollar. It cannot afford anything that would stem the flow of foreign capital on which it continues to finance its present economic structure. The difference between the U.S. and Australia -which also runs huge current account deficits and whose currency has been plummeting for months - lies in two facts. First, the U.S. is the most powerful nation in the world.Second, the U.S. Dollar is the world's trade currency, reserve currency, and to this point, the world's most desired financial instrument.The vested interest in preserving this arrangement is GIGANTIC. The fact that Gold has held its own in $US terms - while skyrocketing in terms of most other currencies - isimpressive in itself. While possessing yourself with patience, remember this. The fantastic universe of financial instruments, and the even more fantastic universe of derivatives which connect to these instruments, are viable as long as the underlying asset is viable. The asset underlying EVERYTHING is the U.S. Dollar. That's how big the stakes are." TownCrier (10/21/00; 18:53:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39618) Paper portion of India's Forex reserves fall by $298 million, gold reserves remain steady over previous week http://www.hindubusinessline.com/2000/07/24/stories/042433ju.htm And forex reserves were down $98 million the week prior to that, moving on such effects as exchange rate fluctuations of the non-US currencies. With respect to the gold reserves, I do not know what their policy is regarding the book value or the frequency with which they might otherwise mark the gold assets to market values. Euroland does it quarterly, and I believe the Swiss do it more frequently than that.On another note, the link provided will show you an operation that should remind you that gold is the ultimate money in international affairs. HI - HAT (10/21/00; 18:49:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 39617) Journeyman.........Andy Warhol Economics Could be that everybody is going to get their 15 minutesof being "right".You noted that stagflation came up on CNBC, recently, for the first time.Junk bonds freeze up and severe nose dives in retail stocks,etc., juxtaposed against obvious inflationary build uppressures, will over time, escalate the conditions that will make the stagflation theme, common.This will set the stage for the ultimate appearance of a most dreaded Spectre, the Inflationary - Depression. TownCrier (10/21/00; 18:34:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 39616) The typical spin... http://www.startribune.com/viewers/qview/cgi/qview.cgi?template=biz_a_cache&slug=coke21 HEADLINE: Coke beats expectations in third quarter, but warns of euro weaknessThe article begins: "The Coca-Cola Co., boosted by stronger overseas sales, reported a better-than-expected 36 percent increase in third quarter earnings but warned that a weak euro could put pressure on its earnings next year."If overseas sales are strong, then in fact, the so called "weak euro" is not hurting anything (with respect to on-the-street sales) so much as the dollar's strong external exchange rates are reducing the repatriated profits to an American number that is disappointingly small in the books.Coke CFO Gary Fayard said, pointed the wrong way in typical fashion when he said, "We do have some downside risk related to currency. If the euro stays near these levels, it will put some pressure on our earnings next year."You decide what picture of reality you are willing to accept. The article said that sales were up 5% in Europe and Eurasia (though Germany was down 5% in Q3 due to adverse weather for soda drinkers), whereas in North America, the article says "sales have been flat this year because of higher retail prices for Coke products." Can you see that the phenomenon here is one of international exchange rates? It clouds the true picture if you are not willing to look more closely at the details. Domestically, the dollar is not buying as much domestic product as it used to.Can you say "End of timeline"? I knew that you could. Hill Billy Mitchell (10/21/00; 18:28:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39615) THE POG/POO LINK: Http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/hbm.htm For those who would care to read all that follows it would be helpful if you could print the Charts found at the link above for handy reference.THE POG/POO LINK:A. Does it exist?B. If so when was it established?C. If so what brought the link into existence?D. Has a link previously established been broken?E. If a link ever existed what were the forces that brought it into existence?F. If a link does not exist, could such a link be brought into existence?G. If a link ever existed or still exists what forces would gain by breaking the link?H. If a link does not exist at present what forces would gain by establishing such a link?I. If a link has existed would a break in the linkage either reinforce or cast doubt upon the scenario put forth by ANOTHER?J. If a link has existed would a break in the linkage either reinforce or cast doubt upon the charge by GATA that POG is being manipulated?Three years have passed since October 1997 when ANOTHER first began to unveil his scenario concerning the Oil for Gold deal and the coming currency war. As he was fond of saying, "Time will prove all things." I have been skeptical all along. As events are slowly unfolding my skepticism is slowly eroding.It seems appropriate at this point to present the following synopsis of ANOTHER's thoughts in this area:A. The purpose of the Euro is to unseat the US Dollar (US$) as the world reserve currency; thus relieving the world of the hegemony of the US$.B. The Euro was established with a target of 15% to 20% gold reserve requirement apparently with the understanding that the US$ could not be unseated by the Euro unless the Euro had something valuable to back it besides the good faith and credit of the European Community.C. The biggest obstacle in the way of the Euro's success is that the settlements of Crude Oil transactions are in US$. In other words as long as the US can require settlement of Crude Oil transactions in the US$ there can be no challenge to the hegemony of the US$.D. There is an oil state, presumably Saudi Arabia, that "no one will play the fool", says ANOTHERE. A deal has been cut with, presumably Saudi Arabia, to the affect that whatever US$ price Saudi Arabia sets per barrel (bbl), it will require settlement in 50% US$ or Euros and 50% in physical gold.F. The world economy is hooked on cheap oil (that is, cheap in terms of paper currency) and will continue to demand more and more of the same and for this reason central banks (CB's) of the world will exchange physical gold reserves for oil if and only if the oil can be obtained in no other manner without an excessive acceleration in the paper currency price of the oil.G. In order to keep the US$ price of oil down (cheap oil) the CB's of the world have been forced to drive the POG down in terms of US$ in order to allow the Saudis to accumulate enough gold from the transactions to keep the spigots open. The point is that the Saudis would greatly benefit by the devaluation of gold in digital currency terms, for they would receive more physical gold in the 50%-50% mix for each barrel of oil exchanged. Thus because the digital currencies of the world have so little value to the Saudis, the only important factor in the price of oil to the Saudis is the amount of gold received in exchange for a barrel of crude? In other words the Saudis will go to and stay at full production if and only if settlement is made in an appropriate amount of gold.We have no consensus concerning any linkage between the Price of Gold (POG) and the price of Crude Oil (POO).SteveH has stated that the POG and the POO have been joined at the hip for about 30 years (1970-thru 1999). He also has expressed a strong conviction that the link may have been broken in recent months.Peter Asher takes the position that there is no rule or 'lock' that makes Gold trade at a specific multiple in barrels of oil and he gives two reasons, 1) ME nations do not have enough discretionary income to convert enough dollars to Gold. 2) Gold-for-Oil ratios will be irrelevant in any volatile Gold market. He equates the use of the historical statistics to forecast any future occurrence by that history as pure numerology. Peter also expresses his opinion that more than one of "our compatriots" is involved in "mumbo-jumbo" with the historical ratios between the POG and the POO.SteveH has correctly assumed that he was included in the group at which the comments about "pure numerology" and "mumbo-jumbo" were directed and has shown much civility by simply rephrasing his prior statement. Rather than using the phrase, "joined at the hip", he very carefully restated his position with the phrase, "traditional relations gold and silver have had". SteveH has very diplomatically held his ground and has not changed his position at this time. He simply submits his opinion that a break from the traditional relation of Gold and Oil has occurred and that this break seems to be revealed by the "grams of gold per bbl's of oil" chart.I would like to make some comments about the above exchange between SteveH and Peter Asher. What I am about to say is simply an opinion, my opinion, and not intended to be considered "statement of fact". After I express my opinion I will follow with an overview of what I consider to be facts in this area.The controversy in the area of linkage in the POG and the POO arose from an honest pursuit of the truth. I took some information presented on this forum about the nominal prices of Gold, Crude Oil, and Gasoline and made an effort with my limited technical abilities to produce a clear comparison of the price changes among the these items in question. RossL took the data which I presented and graciously produced vivid graphic pictures of them. RossL was very careful to give proper credit to the source of the data and clearly took responsibility when he chose on one occasion to present my data in a way that was just a bit objectionable to me. I asked him to remove the (POG/CRUDE X 20/GASOLINE X 500) chart because, in my opinion, it was not precise enough and could result in distorting the facts. I contended that the percentage change in the various prices would not tend to distort the facts. Town Crier came to RossL's defense and the matter of removing the one graph in question was dropped. I did not ask Sir Ross to remove the graph again; however I maintained my position, as I still do, that I think a chart of percentages is the most precise has less tendency to distort the facts.I do acknowledge that Ross's presentation of the data in the X 20 / X 500 format was of great value, if for no other reason than that is seemed to stimulate the debate. In retrospect I am glad that he did not remove the chart.If I may presume to read SteveH's mind concerning the charts presented, I would offer that he appeared to be groping for truth just most on this forum are presently doing. I do not think he or RossL nor myself were engaged in the practice of numerology. Neither were we involved in mumbo-jumbo concerning these price relationships. A more accurate statement about the three of us might be that we do not have the credibility to treat these numbers, period. This is of course my opinion. I disagree with Sir Peter on this point, however I do acknowledge that he certainly has a right to his opinion, for opinions are what this forum is all about.Now let me say that I agree with Peter in that there is no specific multiple in the price of oil as expressed in units of gold, however I arrive at my conclusion from different reasoning. The reason there is no specific multiple is, in my opinion, that the are not the same thing, period. The discretionary income of ME nations has nothing to do with specificity. Also in the past 30 years the ratios (relationships) between Oil and Gold have been quite relevant, especially during times of volatility as can be clearly seen in the Cumulative Real Price chart, in my opinion. What we see in this chart among other things is that Gold is more volatile than Oil but we also see that when the volatility of Gold has increased significantly, an increase in the volatility of Oil has followed in a consistent manner and when the volatility of Gold has decreased significantly, a decrease in the volatility of Oil has followed in a consistent manner. (My opinion of course, a right to which I claim entitlement and which I still choose to exercise)Now an opinion on Steve's pursuit of the truth: - Steve's effort to come to a valid conclusion has been an honest one. It is clearly revealed by the fact that he pushed for the price comparison based on units rather than nominal US$ prices. His reasoning was not clear to me until I tested the results against the Cumulative Real Price Chart. I discovered that the percentage in change of price of oil expressed in grams of gold was identical to the Cumulative Real Price Chart. This can only be explained by the fact that we were doing exactly same thing, only expressing our argument in a different manner. If I may use an analogy, I would say that I expressed these relationships in black and white and Steve expressed the same relationships in color. However, although we came up with the same results we came to different conclusions. I agree with Steve that a "traditional relationship" of at least 30 years has existed but have not come to his conclusion that this relationship has been broken. My inability to draw Steve's conclusion is based on my contention that we do not have a change in average annual price over the length of time that would entail a change in the established trend. I am no statistician but memory tells me that it would normally take three years to be consistent, in this case, in the establishment of a trend. In other words what Steve claims about the break in relationship cannot be established in the short period of time two years much less 6 to 8 months.The following are facts and not mumbo-jumbo or numerology:1) The POG has been more volatile than Oil over the period (1970 thru 1999)2) During the period (1970 thru 1999) the real average annual POG never dropped below the price level in 19703) During the period (1970 thru 1999) based on annual averages the number of barrels of Crude Oil which could be purchased by physical gold was never lower than in 1970Steve may be right and he may be wrong. What he is observing, however must be maintained for an extended period of time and apples must compared with apples before his contention is proven. When I say apples with apples I mean that we must have a full year average for the year 2000 to support his contention and then we must have a three-year period of this phenomenon before full validity can be attributed to his contention.I have one other observation. It seems that Steve's whole purpose is to anticipate what is coming in advance and that if we are just going through mental gymnastics to see what happens, then this whole discussion is of little value. For we can simply wait until three years have passed and speak with confidence about the empirical facts. That would be a little late if we were using this information to help us make decisions as to whether or not we should move our wealth into or out of Physical Gold. I am not quite ready to come to the conclusion that a link exists let alone that a previously existing link has been broken yet, at least not to the point of basing my investment decisions upon it.Now Back to the thoughts of ANOTHER and GATA:1) If a link between Gold and Oil has existed that simple fact would provide strong evidence to support ANOTHER's advice that we should observe the POO as an indicator of a coming change in the POG.2) If the POG has been the price directional leader for Oil in the past, but they change roles in leading and following, while a link between the two continues to exist we will have valuable empirical evidence to confirm that ANOTHER has been right all along in his "Oil for Gold" scenario.3) If a link has existed all along and the link is broken we could all be fools to hope that Gold would ever find its value from our historical perspective.4) If a link has existed all along and the link is broken we will have confirmation that GATA is justified in its claim that the POG has been manipulated or that the POO has been manipulated or both.5) If it turns out that Oil can rise significantly without a corresponding rise in the POG given a reasonable response time then we will know that either oil is no longer a significant factor in price inflation or that Gold has truly been relegated to the status of a commodity and nothing more or both. HBM repost:SOME INTERESTING FACTS REVEALED BY COMPARING THE REAL PRICE OF GOLD, CRUDE, AND GASOLINE: Http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/hbm.htmIn reference to the above link:In 1970 about the time the world began to change drastically 1 Ounce of GOLD would buy:----------11 barrels of CRUDE and 100 gallons of GASOLINE----------In 1980 the year when the average real price of GOLD peaked at $1364.05 (1999 US$) and the average real price of GASOLINE PEAKED at $2.78 (1999 US$) 1 Ounce of GOLD would buy:-----------29 barrels of CRUDE and 490.67 gallons of GASOLINE----------In 1981 when the average real price of CRUDE peaked at $68.78 (1999 US$) 1 Ounce of GOLD would buy:-----------13 barrels of CRUDE and 333 gallons of GASOLINE----------In 1990, the year prior to "Desert Storm", a relatively boring year in economic terms, the average real prices in 1999 US$'s were $500.14 per ounce of GOLD, $29.17 per barrel of CRUDE, and $1.51 per gallon of GASOLINE, one ounce of GOLD would buy:-----------17 barrels of CRUDE and 331 gallons of GASOLINE----------In 1999, by general consensus, a terrible year for GOLD, 1-Ounce of GOLD would buy:-----------17 barrels of CRUDE and 240 gallons of GASOLINE---------- beesting (10/21/00; 18:28:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 39614) As usual a correction to last post. EURO PAPER INTRODUCTION JAN. 1, 2002! Not Jan. 1 2000.....beesting. RossL (10/21/00; 18:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39613) Reply to Gandalf the White - More discussion ! http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm New US paper with two zeros lopped off and tied to a gold standard is an interesting concept. Why would politicians who are philosophically married to the concept of fiat paper money go for this? beesting (10/21/00; 18:23:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39612) Late to the Party as Usual! ThaiGold:Lots of good discussion!Confiscation, a few points not covered yet or partially covered.1. As sir Peter suggests every Gold mine in the world would close down shortly after $50 per ounce Gold was implemented.2. AngloGold states 80% of world Gold consumption is jewellery,are they going to tax every item of Gold jewellery in existance?3. 24 karat is pure Gold, 1 oz. Chinese Panda's, Maple Leafs, and others are 24 karat, while American Eagles are 22 karat, how would the 24 karat coins be priced?4. 10 karat, 12 karat,14,16,18 etc. jewellery, Gold plated??5. What about Platinum coins and jewellery?6.I would say say all of us currently holding Gold coins are classified as coin collectors, I don't think any government could enforce a set price on a rare Gold coin, please think about that, what would a $20(double eagle) 1854O Ms-60 be worth? Only 3250 were minted, currently valued at $165,000 for one. That's why the rules were changed after the 1933 confiscation.6. Who reading this would fully and truthfully,disclose his/her Gold holdings knowing they would be taxed on what they report? *********************************************************Sir Rockgrabber:Sir Cavan Man:Your statement:<<Gold is the Euro's trump card.>>Sir Gandalf, do I have the "Hobbits" permission to start another rumor?Most reading this know Gold could be rolled into a thread thinner than a spiders web thread, and not break apart. What if the new Euro paper 100 Euro(to be launched Jan. 1 2000) had a precise amount of thread Gold woven into it? 1/100 of a gram, or whatever. If that happened we would sure-ly see which paper money the masses would prefer.**********************************************************Steve H:The IMF:I have a terrible hunch the IMF is involved in some way with the possible manipulation of POG. Who are they accountable to? Who audits their physical Gold? Where is their Gold stored? Is their Gold in ledger form only or real physical Gold?We watch events together.Thanks for Reading.....beesting. appolo's golden chariot (10/21/2000; 17:57:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 39611) Inquiry of Sir Trail Guide Sir Trail Guide:Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge and useful perspectives on currencies and gold. I have learned much from you these last few months.There is, perhaps, something that I miss in your many brilliant and informative analyses that I wonder whther you would be so kind as to comment upon.Specifically what I had in mind was the broader poltical economic implications from the decline of the US dollar as an international numeraire that you perceive will occur in the future.In my view the primary benefit that international dollar community has experienced since the Bretton Woods time has been a long period of peace and security which made possible the spectacular post World War II economic recoveries of Western Europe and Japan. The acceptance of the dollar as an international reserve currency and all it implied from the standpoint of US trade and governmental deficits seem to have been a small price to pay for sixty years of peace and prosperity. The build up of dollar reserves by allied states as a consequence of US hegemony also seems to have a far better arrangement than the reparations imposed by the USSR on its East Bloc clients or imposed by the victors in World War I and the Franco Prussian War.But with the fall of the Soviet Union the benefits of this type of arrangement seem of very little value from a European perspective. The Russian bear has retreated--why accept the seignorage implicit in a dolar based currency system. The promotion of the Euro in my view was more responsive to this change in the changing realities of European security and defence needs than the ideas of Professor Mundell, although he certainly put forth a powerful rationalization for European currency autonomy in the changed politcal environment.But such a change has not been experienced in other strong dollar provinces such as the Middle East or East Asia.There the need for strong allies to help deter the attacks of hostile neighbors still is as real as it was in Germany in the 1960s. If the dollar fries in the type of currency blitzkrieg that you envision, the whole political order of the Gulf states will change radically and Japan will also lose a strong ally in confronting China.Given these latter political costs I am not so sure that the entire dollar community will wish to shift exclusively to the euro no matter how hard it is in terms of purchaing power. And this is because Euroland provides no assurances that it will provide military support to assist these nations to protect themselves from their adversaries.So the corollary to stong gold euro--weak dollar is a major geopoltical reordering. But I doubt that too many large dollar holders outside of Europe are eager for this outcome.Moreover, it is unlikely that the European federation will ever have the political strength and cohesiveness to support the type of military committments that are necessary to preserve the peace in the Middle and Far East.Trail Guide it seems to me that it is not just a question of relative inflation rates, derviatives, bullion banking and public finance. It also very fundamentally a question related to creating effective mechanisms for maintqaing peace and security whcih Euroland is incapable of doing.What do you think? auspec (10/21/2000; 17:32:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39610) HELP!!! GATA/ SteveH and Others I Have again been dealing with the issues previously discussed regarding what may be considered "abuses" in the manipulation of gold and what may be considered just using the existing "structure". This post was posed in the Le Metropole Cafe Chat Site and is being reposted here for input. Having gone back through GATA's GDBC once again, there are still questions in my simple mind as to exactly where the responsibilities and liabilities for this "crisis" lie. It is best described as a Gold Derivative Banking Crisis because that is patently obvious as to what this creature is, as all who dare to look within can see. It does entail fraud, manipulation, collusion, & conspiracy, whatever you want to call it, but big picture, it is now a "Crisis". Only a blind fool would argue that {Rusty Rose comes to mind, a guy Bill Murphy met with in the bush camp}.I still have more questions than answers so have attempted to sort out the range of activities of the various players that have created this crisis. Have placed activities in 3 categories; 1-Political/Economical Business as Usual. 2-Illegal &/or unconstitutional behavior. 3-"Gray" zone between 1 & 2. Please make comments as I know there are some who think there is nothing illegal or unconstitutional going on- just business as usual. SteveH, I would still appreciate your input if you can find the time.Category 1-Political Business as Usual- As much as it hurts me to write it, this category includes manipulation, reckless, dangerous, stupid, &/or greedy behavior, breach of public trust, or scandalous behavior. SCANDAL!A-Crony capitalism, Robert Rubin and Goldman Sachs. The whole issue of public bailouts and "too big to fail".B-Lying to public via hedonic manipulations of official statistics; CPI, Current Account Deficit, etc. Analysts making false bearish projections of POG. Lack of truthful disclosure/deceptions by ESF, FED, CBs, BBs, WGC, GFMS, or undisclosed official sales of gold.C- Manipulation of POG similar to other currencies by official entities. Note: Dr. Greenspan says it would be "wholly inappropriate" for Treasury to fiddle w POG. He did not say it is unconstitutional or illegal, big difference. So Fed or ESF can "deal in gold" including futures and derivatives. ESF can pretty much do whatever it pleases as has practically no accountability just by the nature of the beast. Abuses of public trust, and/or public deception is another story. Fed and Treasury {ESF} may be at cross purposes with each other, which is certainly not in the public interest.D-Bullion Banks and Gold Banking system have created a dangerous moral hazard via gold and other derivatives. Risk to international financial system. They and CBs have overstepped prudent limits to interventions.E- Quid pro quo manipulations. Example; Kuwait sends gold to BOE, US supplies defense to Kuwait.F- BOE gold auctions are a misuse of public trust for starters. Central Bank follies- Recognizing the folly of CBs/Govt and punishing them accordingly {Soros?}.G-Conflicts of interest via Rubin and his FORMER investment bank {GS}. Creates a Clintonesque escape hole.H- One more gigantic scandal for the "BOSS", that dwarfs the rest of them put together.Category 2- Illegal &/or Unconstitutional Behavior-A-Improper insider trading. Investment banks acting on inside information for their own or their client's behalf. Example; Deutsche Bank telling their clients on 5-6-99, Just prior to the BOE announcement, that gold was stopping at 290.B-SPECULATIVE trading by the State on Comex. Constitution grants Congress the exclusive power to determine the gold value of the dollar. The Executive branch's use of ESF to set the dollar-gold price would be "illegal and unconstitutional".C- Abuse of mining companies by investment/bullion banks. Banks may end up with extensive liabilities. Example- GS selling "hedges" to Ashanti {time will tell}.D- Public Commodity Exchanges are regulated under authority of Congress to function honestly and fairly in the interest of the public they serve. Just because Congress is not doing their job doesn't mean laws are not being broken.E- Federal and State statutes against the manipulation of gold prices by Bullion Banks IF done via ESF. I still do not know what BB's are allowed to do through FED, and where they cross the line {breaking insider trading rules?}. Are there Bullion Bank liability issues with "abuse of structure" under which they function?Category 3- Gray Zone- Between 1 & 2 above, reckless and stupid but not quite illegal or unconstitutional.A-Endangerment of Fort Knox gold. By ESF actions with knowledge of Treasury and likely the FED also. Misuse of Ft. Knox Gold.B- Chase, GS, others- Are they a "legal arm" of the US govt and at what point do they get caught "red handed" crossing legal/constitutional lines?C- The Fed has "safeguards" and accountability that the ESF does not have. Do you doubt for 1 second that the FED, and all CBs for that matter, know exactly what is going on in the gold/silver/US$ markets? These issues are not as murky to the CBs as they are to us.NOTE- Can you see why I say all the lines get crossed in trying to determine who has crossed the line? Please take this essay as a form of question as opposed to answers and help clarify all you can.Thank you,Auspec--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Post New Topic | Reply to: "HELP!!!" SteveH (10/21/2000; 17:19:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39609) CM Your question. I don't have an answer. Isn't gold being attacked already and for the last 20 years. It really hasn't stopped. (being attacked)In essence, what else is new?Also, the Euro is being attacked, big time. Euro carry, now not so nice because somebody has mined the gap. Thanks for the kind words.Steve DaveC (10/21/2000; 16:58:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39608) OT: Farfel - The Green Party Platform http://www.greenparty.org/Platform.html Ralph Nader a "leader?" I have to respectfully disagree. If you do some research you will find that he has benefited financially from some of his "crusades" against big business. HAve you ever stopped to think about how corporations get BIG? Who is Microsoft's biggest customer? The Dept of Defense. Who set up the monopoly of AT&T? Feds. Ever hear of a guy named Preston Tucker? Guy tries to make a better car and the Big 3 use the government to shut him down.Government is supposed to support and uphold the law.Here is an excerpt from the Green Party. Does this read like a party committed to individual rights? Does it say somewhere that they will "take on" the Federal Reserve and Big Corporations? No it does not. This is a socialist plank wrapped in environmentally-safe paper if there ever was one.The following platform planks are the immediate policy goals we support to move us toward an ecological democracy. An Economic Bill of Rights Universal Social Security: Taxable Basic Income Grants for all, structured into the progressive income tax, that guarantee an adequate income sufficient to maintain a modest standard of living. Start at $500/week ($26,000/year) for a family of four, with $62.50/week ($3,250/year) adjustments for more or fewer household members in 2000 and index to the cost of living. Jobs for All: A guaranteed right to job. Full employment through community-based public works and community service jobs programs, federally financed and community controlled. Living Wages: A family-supporting minimum wage. Start at $12.50 per hour in 2000 and index to the cost of living. 30-Hour Work Week: A 6-hour day with no cut in pay for the bottom 80% of the pay scale. Social Dividends: A "second paycheck" for workers enabling them to receive 40 hours pay for 30 hours work. Paid by the government out of progressive taxes so that social productivity gains are shared equitably. Universal Health Care: A single-payer National Health Program to provide free medical and dental care for all, with freedom of choice for consumers among both conventional and alternative health care providers, federally financed and controlled by democratically elected local boards. Free Child Care: Available voluntarily and free for all who need it, modeled after Head Start, federally financed, and community controlled. Lifelong Public Education: Free, quality public education from pre-school through graduate school at public institutions. Affordable Housing: Expand rental and home ownership assistance, fair housing enforcement, public housing, and capital grants to non-profit developers of affordable housing until all people can obtain decent housing at no more than 25% of their income. Democratic community control of publicly funded housing programs. Farfel, you're a bright guy. Read where Nader and his party stand. They do not believe what you think they believe.The Libertarian Party will be on 49 ballots. They missed Arizona due to a legal issue. First time in 16 years they are not on all ballots. If you love freedom, which is possible without anarcy (it's called upholding The US Constitution/Bill of Rights), you'll vote Libertarian.Respecfully. Gandalf the White (10/21/2000; 16:36:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39607) More discussion ! Is ThaiGold really saying that the USA would pay the $50 Legal Tender value of a one ounce Gold Eagle for NEW USA PAPER that really just had the last two zeros lopped off ? That I could understand ! $5,000. Present FRN would now become $50 NEW US $.That is the usual way the Banana Republics did the "restart". Remember Ecuador, it made 25,000 of its monitary units = ONE US $. Simple, yes?<;-) Elwood (10/21/2000; 16:29:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 39606) Taurus (10/21/2000; 15:37:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39604) Bankers are not in the mining business. They are in the banking business. After they foreclose they resell the properties so that they can continue to make more loans. If they owned it all to whom would they loan?Elwood Hugh Akston (10/21/2000; 16:18:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39605) Virtual confiscation of gold What a wonderful idea! But I think it has a few problems.Namely, if they tried your scheme, many people would be happy to purchase as much as they could at the fixed $50 price, believing that the government would not be able to hold that price due to running out of gold. I believe the demand would quickly exhaust the supplies that the U.S. government has left, if any. Taurus (10/21/2000; 15:37:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39604) ORO 59564 Thanks for the response. Let me rephrase to see if I have your reasoning straight. The bullion banks are extending easy credit (e.g. 1.4% gold loans) to miners, encouraging the miners to take on debt and over-extend themselves so that, when they (the miners) miss a loan payment, the bankers can foreclose. It's a cheap way to buy gold mines. Is this the gist of what you're saying? It's an old trick. A specialty, I believe, of William Rockefeller (brother to John D., Sr.) on farm land. Ol' Billy was a loan shark. He generously extended loans to midwest farmers who were already way over over their heads in debt and who had no business borrowing further. If they missed one payment by 24 hours –- BAM! -- the sheriff was there with an eviction notice. Good old Billy Boy. Did a lot for the family name of Rockefeller, too.But the question remains. Why don't the Rothchilds (or equivalent) already own (by two hundred years or more) ALL the gold mines in the world? ALL the gold mines -- lock, stock, and barrel. WHY NOT? There must be a good reason why they have chosen not to do so.Another topic. In post 38767 (10/11/00) you closed with the remark: "If gold is ‘useless’ other than its use as money or as a plating material, so are all of our personal choices as to what to consume and how much to pay for it, and so we all are ‘useless’."That may be closer to the mark than any of us care to admit. Shakespeare, in "A Midsummer Night's Dream", closed with the line that, in the final analysis, life itself is "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Mr Gresham (10/21/2000; 15:24:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39603) Liquidity Got the honey-do work clothes on, ready to run...What happens in a meltdown is everyone runs for liquidity -- value-in-hand -- as THEY understand it. For most people today, that's various forms of paper obligations, written by those they deem most reliable for repayment. How quickly they learn otherwise determines how quickly the lines form at your local coin dealer.We consider gold-in-hand as ultimate liquidity. All paper may burn, at almost anytime. Some moments are palpably pregnant with probability. (Yeesh! I got my tongue twisted over that one...)ThaiGold is reminding us of the govt (fiat-decreers) strategy of making an end run around our liquidity security strategy and biting us in the rear. "We will send our armed whoevers to take it away. We ARE, after all, the government, and force rules when markets, the markets we run, anyway, fail. There is no security outside our (paper) castle."That threat is intended to police up our rational tendency to defect from the paper crowd and seek an independent security, for others may see us and follow, putting an end more quickly to their game. They wish to write their own terms for that ending. In fact, the beginning and ending of games IS their game. That is the way of Power.Where was it said recently, "Most men seek only to farm the land. A few figure out how to farm other men." Bolshevik or capitalist, isn't that what the past century (and before) has been about?At this time, they will not make such threats public. That would only raise the topic (gold) they are trying to make everyone forget, and largely successful, too. Most answering here feel we are off the confiscation radar screen this time (but MK IS emphasizing pre-33, isn't he?) because financial times are different. It may be an uneasy undeclared truce, at this distant outpost between empires (gold/fiat), where fighting could erupt one day as a surprise to all...One question lingering for me (Oro?) is the proportionality of gold vs other markets. If all the gold in the world is valued at about $1 trillion today, out of, what, $30-50 trillion GDPs isn't it mathematically insignificant in the total mix? I wonder why the BB's (branches of big banks) play in it at all, with such small margins, and high risks.Or is it the solid money tail wagging the fiat dog? They're just keeping their rears covered, as a system, as we're trying to do as individuals.Enough. Mr Gresham (10/21/2000; 15:01:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39602) Virtual Confiscation Only a minute to post before honey-do's take over:Reminds me of the thoughts I came to the forum with over a year ago when talk was of Y2k bank runs (low likelihood, but snowballing effect with high consequence).What would FDIC and Treasury do to calm public outrage over loss of their savings? Turn all uncollectible bank deposits (and then T-bills next) into long-term public (taxpayer) obligations, a la S&L crisis (multiplied many xxx). Use time to obfuscate the loss already suffered/spent away by credit excesses.The math is already out there, but people are math-challenged and can't do the ROI calcs in their heads or anywhere else for that matter. Illusory time is all they've got left to play with.It's just the policy design to put it past them that needs to consider this for them to pull it off.ThaiGold I know you do not advocate that. You're just guessing what the govt types must already be thinking through. It brings out the nervous streak in us. I'm hopeful they don't get their ideas from reading us. (But you never can tell...)If USA gives up on being world reserve, and it can't expropriate external wealth any longer, well then, yes, it only has its own homeland serfs to milk for what it can. Bye-bye K-Mart specials... Hello, barefoot sharecropping, of all types. Taurus (10/21/2000; 14:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39601) ThaiGold 39549 Your post triggered quite a response! Wow! If I may rephrase your thoughts, at the risk of over simplifying…It sounds to me like you're saying the U.S. is likely to (1) knock a couple of zeros off its currency, like any self-respecting banana republic would do as an inflation cure, and (2) re-enter the equivalent of Bretton Woods with gold at $50/oz. Is that the gist of it? It's certainly not implausible.Ploy #1 has been employed by any number of governments any number of times. Ploy #2 worked well for 25 years. And no doubt many folks in "high finance" fondly remember the good old days when life was simpler. Not that it WAS simpler. But as they remember it… Cavan Man (10/21/2000; 14:39:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39600) SteveH Cavan Man 39594 What do you think of that? Cavan Man (10/21/2000; 14:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 39599) SteveH Sometime during the next five years.....Thought about cashing out of my gold stocks as sold as I am on our friend. However, there are still way too many reasons why POG might get back to around $300 or so and bring me back to par so I am holding. This whole new episode will take time to "work out". By the Grace of God I am pretty employable and with my sweat equity I can hang in there long enough. One thing I am absolutely convinced of. When the POG rises it will be a screamer and I am going to be there to watch it all. Best to you friend. R Powell (10/21/2000; 14:37:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39598) COT and other thoughts www.commitmentsoftraders.com Farfel, this gives large and small specs and commercial positions as well as open interest through 10/17/00. Stranger, plastic fence is also available. I don't know about cost but it never will need paint or stain. It's not a very organic idea but I've seen it and can state that if I hadn't been told, I wouldn't have known it wasn't wood. Peter Asher, if the EPA or DEP or anyone ever asks about my painting with used motor oil I'll tell them I'm just using a common oil-based stain. I poured a concrete footing some years ago, right on the ground between forms but on the ground. Poured about 30 tons and then listened to the EPA idiot tell the concrete truck drivers that they couldn't wash their shutes because the 200-300 lbs. of sand, stone and cement from the shutes was harzardous waste that shouldn't be dumped "on the ground". Please don't damage our only planet, I agree, but let's have a little common sense. My vote for president goes to the candidate from the Ben Franklin Party. Franklin was once asked what the best government is and replied "that government is best that governs least". I'd also vote for a somewhat limited "golden" collar imposed on their spending. Happy weekend to all!! Rich SteveH (10/21/00; 14:11:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 39597) CM Anything that is a major life-shift can't be that good. I suppose the adage, if it doesn't kill us then we will be stronger, applies. All of this high faluten(sp?) mumbo-jumbo, taxes my brain. I just want my gold stocks to go up. (see mono lisa smile or smerk). You know (seriously now) that is what brought me here in the first place. Just like Bill Murphy and lots of us. We just wanted to know what the heck was going on with gold. Now look what we think we know, eh? Pretty scary sometimes. Don't you know? (smile) SteveH (10/21/00; 14:05:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 39596) On the farside www.kitco.com repost:Date: Sat Oct 21 2000 13:37sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:Copyright © 2000 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedIt seems that we are tracing out the first leg of the major equity bear in the classic emotional roller-coaster. Commentary here and in the public media and press continually looks for "proof" that bottom is in -- the tough description is denial, the kinder words are skepticism or optimism. The bulls still hold the upper hand in terms of numbers, but they just don't have the money ( or conviction to commit it all ) to push to new highs. Failure to get there, along with realization that continuously accelerating economic growth assumptions are just plain impossible, will be the impetus for the big leg down ( Elliot III ) . This pattern is of such a high order that most can't see it. After all, the entire pattern will be several decades long when we look back at it, IMHO. The talking heads have no clue what capitulation is about. We're nowhere near the widespread belief that no price is too low -- that's capitulation. FWIW, the debt game is running on schedule, with the telecoms now recognized to be the lousy credits they are. Coming next is the telecom infrastructure suppliers, still months away. After that comes the financials. The end game will be the consumer debt and mortgages, which is still three to eight years away, I would guess. Cavan Man (10/21/00; 13:57:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39595) SteveH Is that good news or bad news? Cavan Man (10/21/00; 13:54:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39594) A light just came on! RE: Currency Warfare Trail Guide speaks about POG being caught in the crossfire of a developing currency war. Gold is the Euro's trump card. Therefore, POG (by proxy) will be attacked as the Euro cannot be attacked DIRECTLY due to FOREX/Trade complications etc. Look out below?Is anybody with me on this? SteveH (10/21/00; 13:53:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39593) The Golden Bale bale \Bale\ (b[=a]l), n. [AS. bealo, bealu, balu; akin to OS. balu, OHG. balo, Icel. b["o]l, Goth. balweins.] 1. Misery; calamity; misfortune; sorrow.Let now your bliss be turned into bale. --Spenser.2. Evil; an evil, pernicious influence; something causing great injury. [Now chiefly poetic] Now hearing rumors of the IMF gold to be used to bale out the BB's once things get too far out of hand. Think of it. The IMF has already marked some of its gold to market. What's to stop it from being marked to market at a much higher price? So, when gold is needed as the golden bale, that is when she will rise. Could this also be the impetus behind the derivative law change request by GS and LS?Just imagine if this is know by these BBs. Sure confirms GATA's claims, eh? No wonder they lease to hearts content the golden swill. They already know the bale is in the works. What a bunch of horse pocky. Sure is pointing to a behind the scences happenstance with gold, doesn't it? Cavan Man (10/21/00; 13:11:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 39592) ThaiGold Your "drastic steps" have been taken. We've been debating same here for over two years.Here's another reason why confiscation might NOT occur:1. This country needs all the brains it can muster from both within and without. Any significant repressive measures will keep talent away from these shores. BTW, that's not an original thought--has been mentioned here before. auspec (10/21/00; 12:51:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 39591) ThaiGold ThaiGold,Interesting "end game" thought scenario. IF we ended up in a One-World Government that govt cartainly could make whatever gold decree they wanted, but am not going to hold my breath for that one. Too many world wide conflicting interests, even if one huge governing body has a major control and influence on worldwide events. Let me know when the Middle East is unified and we'll take another look at this issue.Confiscation could only happen on a country by country basis and is doomed to failure. That cat will not fit back into that bag, IMO. Too many activist/advocates with access to air waves. The TRUTH has a leg up on a LIE every time {in the end}. Don't care how many times AG takes responsibility for this Forum, his decree shows his delusions only.Best to you,Auspec Peter Asher (10/21/00; 12:46:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39590) Haste makes waste, and typo mistakes So, now you have gold being bid for at $50 and taxed at 50 cents a year. There is not going to be much of any supply out there at that point. Not many people are going to see that the Golden Emperor is wearing only $50 cloths. They can SAY gold is only worth $50 an ounce but that won't make it so. Heck, I'd sell everything I owned and buy all the $50 gold I could get and hunker down at 50 cents a year for a bit until the scheme crashed and burned. Peter Asher (10/21/00; 12:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 39589) ThaiGold Now that you've had a good run with the Doberman, maybe the oxygenation of the ‘ole brain cells has cleared out the cobwebs and you can re-think the $50 Gold scenario.In the extremely unlikely possibility that a President Gore can convince a bunch of closet Marxist, new age democrats to vote in such an abomination, consider this.1) Gold still requires $200+ to get it out of the ground.2) What government decrees, government can cancel.3) Not everyone who has some investment money on hand is stupid.So, now you have gold being bid for at $50 and taxed at 50 cents a year. There is not going to be much of any supply out there at that point. Not many people are going to see that the Golden Emperor and is wearing only $50 cloths. They can SAY gold is only worth $50 an once but that won't make it so. Heck, I'd sell everything I owned and buy all the $50 gold I could get and hunker down at 50 cents a year for a bit until the scheme crashed and burned.Almost has me wishing it could happen!!! Rockgrabber (10/21/00; 12:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 39588) World Currency I know the IMF has a world currency already made up. I dont know anymore than that about it though. Can any with info on this currency please give it???Are they creating a economic disaster on purpose, so they can introduce the thing?I think it would be of great interest to know about this thing. White Hills (10/21/00; 12:15:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39587) POG ThaiGold, I am a student of the forum and willing to learn. How and why would the rest of the world permit the USA , in the midst of a financial crisis, to set the POG on the world market. I can't see the EU or the Oil Producing States going along with such foolishness not to mention Asia. Would the USD be more than it is because it set the POG at US$50, not backed by gold at that price, and still a fiat currency. And remember as Another/FOA have said, the whole point of the Euro was to replace the USD as reserve currency of the World. Isn't that what is happening now? Cavan Man, I liked your post better but had to get my 2 cents in., White Hills RossL (10/21/00; 12:14:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39586) ThaiGold - I don't get it. Why would I trade a one ounce gold coin for $50 in federal reserve notes just because a bureaucrat demanded that the price be fixed there? What force makes the US FRN the de facto reference standard? Especially when there are umpteen trillion in existence.Just why would this decree stabilize the credit balloon/ meltdown?I agree with you that the only solutions that bureaucrats come up with will be 'solutions' that remove personal liberty and/or property. Will the American people act like sheep and give away those freedoms? Gold is the real money. That a politician wishes it would go away so that fiat can be printed endlessly will not change that fact. auspec (10/21/00; 12:11:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39585) GOT TO KNOW! Nickel62, Goldfan, Christopher, Leigh Hey Guys,Gal,Nickel62- Did you write the "Debate" #39243 & "Sexes" 39489? If so, this Forum is a lot wilder and woolier than anyone realizes. Honerable mention to you!Goldfan- Ditto with post #39495. I am a fan of yours!Christopher {The Certifiable}- Am still howling over post #39400. You are out of the closet now and we have high and regular expectations of you!Leigh- USAGOLD Forum needs you more than you need it!Other Certifiable Closet Comics- This Forum can be like a morgue when POG plummets $.60, we need some of your "moisture" in a dry and weary place. Bust loose and let that creative genius come out of that moth eaten hole!Got Bi-Hemispheric Synaptic Activity?Auspec ThaiGold (10/21/00; 11:54:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39584) More Feedback #4 Attn: Trail Guide & Shermag & Cavan Man Trail Guide (10/21/00; 08:50:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 39569)=== Thank you for your comments. Please understand thatI am not necessarily fully-advocating the rescue scenario thatI've put forth. It's an excercise to stimulate thinking within theForum about a facet of the Meltdown scenarios that hasn'tbeen addressed: ie: "what will..WILL..government(s) possiblydo to rescue the world's financial system from total colapse?"And I am therefore playing a "Devil's Advocate" role herein.Also, I'd encourage others to step-up and offer some of theirown concrete scenarios likewise, as alternatives. To date itseems nobody has, including yourself. <smile>One point you made (that my gold confiscation scenario wasold-hat or done-before or fully discussed/dismissed before) isnot correct. This new approach is totally different: VirtualConfiscation, where Gold is retained by the masses, only thevalue is taken-away is, I think a new exciting concept.Also, it is not the old tried-before/failed method of returning toa Gold Standard. It's just the opposite. Please re-read myearliest post today. You have overlooked that aspect. Goldis not the reference standard. It has been decoupled and fullyneutralized by the government US$ 50/oz lock/decree. Then,the US Dollar itself becomes the defacto Reference Standard.Gold becomes essentially worthless. Nobody would wish to"waste" their US$ cash any longer to accumulate nor hoard.And in the other worldwide cooperating countries, their localcurrencies (Euro, Lira, Yen, Baht, Whatever) would likewiselock-in at an initially agrred upon equivilent POG. So it (Gold)becomes identically priced, instantly, worldwide, at the samenever-to-change-again value(s).Those currencies, then become competive or referenced forall future international settlements, in terms of US Dollars. Notgold. Gold is no longer on anyone's radar screen.At first glance, many here in the Forum "think" about arbitageand smuggling etc etc. Nonsense. To buy it here at US$ 50tthen smuggle it (at great risk) elsewhere, to be only able tosell it to another country's Official Treasury Gold-Input Windowat an equivilent (local) (Yen/Euro/Ruble) price, is ludicrous andprofitless. Nobody would bother. There is no market for Gold.Others mention a Jewler's Windfall: Buy gold from the govtat US$ 50/oz and fabricate it into expensive jewelry. Also thisbecomes silly. Gold jewelry will also have lost it's lustre in theaftermath of the lock-gold reprice. ie: a $300 necklace of"yesterday" becomes a $50 necklace of "tomorrow". Who inhis/her right mind would pay $300 for only $50 of tooled Gold?The jewelry market would adjust (deflate) to the new reality.Next I want to clarify a point you expressed: That I or othersoften use the pretext of gold confiscation to buy paper goldsubstitues such as shares or derivitives. Let me say flat-out,that I am not "Talking My Book". Indeed, Sir Trail Guide, asa result of my learning curve and review of your teachings onthe subject of paper substitutes, I fully agree with you abouttheir invalidity and worthlessness. I truly hate my Newmontshare position. I'd prefer physical Gold, instead, even at only$50/oz. Or better yet, Silver.!. <wink>You also speak of "regular inflations" vs open currency warfare and/or "new inflation" realities. etc. Stop and think: If we arecurrently inundated with high unacknowledged "old" inflation,and it hasn't changed Gold's price one whit, ($270/$290), thenfor sure, in a locked-gold-price ($50) era, it'd not matter either.Inflation (too much money chasing too few goods) is a functionof money supply, not gold price. Not at $270. Not at $50. It'sirrelevant under such a rescue-era scenario. Isn't it.?. Sinceany inflations at that time become strictly (as before) simplya function of government(s) management of their currencies.Or mismanagement, as is more often the case, and wouldcontinue to muddle in the same fashion. Dumb today, equalsdumb tomorrow. Bureaucrats never learn.Finally, Trail Guide, please consider that my scenario occursat a viscous time of worldwide total meltdown. Chaos of anincredible sort would result in every financial arena worldwideif drastic steps were not taken immediately. Other countrieswould be hell-bent to jump onto the US$ stabilized wagon justas they (and their economies) were recently saved from thejaws of collapse during Asian/SouthAmerica/Mexico meltdownby the USA assuming the role of "Consumer of Last Resort".I mean, here are many countries, swimming in current USDollars from their exports. It seems to me they would welcome and fully cooperate with any US-sponsored planto save the value of those (their) Dollars. And if it harmed-nottheir own economies in the process, indeed, even stabilizedtheir own currencies further, would see it as the only/bestsoloution to a mega-mega-problem.The USA's dollar may be despised, but it sure is widely usedand accepted everywhere. I'm reminded of the old adage:"Where does an 800 Lb Gorilla sit down.?. Answer: Anywherehe wants.!. So, I ask, where does an 800 Lb Dollar spend.?.Answer: Anywhere it wants.!. You could even purchase Euro'swith them. To buy Iraqi oil. In France. During post-meltdown.Thanks for listening. Further comments appreciated.Shermag (10/21/00; 09:47:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39572)=== Cocaine and Heroin (smuggling/sale) are in a differentclass. They will continue to be profitable, since there is a bigdemand for them. Whereas Gold, after-meltdown scenariowill be mostly unwanted by the masses. Only fetishists willcrave it, as before, and they can easily purchase it in anydesired quantity from their local Central Bank, worldwide, fora paltry US$ 50/oz or local-currency equivilant. Trust me.Cavan Man (10/21/00; 10:10:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39573)=== You've listed five points. I'll try to offer rebuttals:(1) [US has no friends to cooperate] See above: 800 Lb Gorilla(2) [to disadvantage their own] See above swimming in dollars.(3) [currency par excellence] For Central Bank national equity comparisons/exchange rates: Maybe. For Joe Sixpak: No.(4) [FreeGold in the making] Post-meltdown it will be UnFreeand definetly locked. Sorry. There goes 5000 years of tears.(5) [Big holders thwarted] A humbling thought. But inevitable.Thanks everyone. My Dobie now wishes to take me for a run.You will hear no more of me until tomorrow. <grin>ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com Cavan Man (10/21/00; 11:50:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 39583) PH in LA That's called a Personal Property tax and we have it here in Missouri. In fact, years ago (30?), there was a tax on the furnishing in your homes here in Missouri. This was part of the PPT assessment. Of course, everybody fibbed. This was unenforceable so the political intelligensia did away with it. Today here, anything that needs a license is taxed. That's how they manage it. Cavan Man (10/21/00; 11:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 39582) ThaiGold You are obviously a lot smarter than the average bear. Stick around this time would 'ya? RossL (10/21/00; 11:36:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 39581) Farfel - The wasted vote myth http://apll.freeyellow.com/wastedvote.html The only way to waste your vote is to use it for a candidate that sends the message you do not want to send to America.For me personally, Harry Browne is the candidate that sends the message that I want to send with my vote. Therefore, my vote is not wasted. PH in LA (10/21/00; 11:20:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39580) ...about Thaigold's confiscation visions ThaiGold throws up several cautionary flags that easily deserve serious thought. Even though FOA's comments rightly cast doubt on them, it should be pointed out how radical they actually would be.Thaigold's idea that the federal government would be able to force citizens to declare their gold holdings and pay a tax of 1% to continue to hold them flies in the face of all past experience that Americans have ever had with taxation. At no time have we, as a people, ever had to pay federal taxes on our possessions, just for the mere privilege of owning them. Instead, the whole concept of taxes has always been on "income". The idea has always been that a citizen has the right to own what he has. That private property is basically sacred. Property as such has always been respected as such. Taxes have always been due and payable on the increase of property only. The exception to this concept are the property taxes due (at the local level only) on real estate holdings. These taxes are mostly for schools, and other local-level improvements to infrastructures such as water levies, local roads, etc. These social costs are accepted because they benefit all citizens at the local level. At the same time, as there is no obligation to own property, yet all real estate property must be owned by someone. And the costs of society are passed on to every benefiting citizen in the form of higher prices by property owners, whoever they might be. To suggest that these basic concepts are about to change is radical in the extreme. Taxing gold ownership outright would open some very big doors in our society. How about a tax on art works? Food supplies? etc. The idea easily becomes that the government now owns everything... a portion of which must be tithed away periodically. Basically stated: No private property exists anymore. The government has the fundamental right to everything. Period. And eventually (at the rate of 1% per year?) it would own everything (in 100 years?).Last time I heard, that concept had been tried in the form of communism, and it was discovered that such a form of forced labor was too inefficient to compete with other systems.Thaigold suggests that such moves by American government would instantly be supported by IMF and G-11 government actions modeled along the same lines of a hard and fast gold standard (@ $50/ounce) imposed on the population. Yet, we can already see that the ECB intends to mark its gold to market. (They are already doing so on a quarterly basis.) So that already blows a pretty sizable hole in the international cooperation card. Anyone holding gold and desiring to not live under defacto communism could merely change their residence to the European Community, financing the move with their undeclared gold holdings. And of course, with the Europeans already opting for a non-communist approach, the basis exists for an eventually lethally competitive confrontation for this new American-communistic system.And ThaiGold's vision flies in the face of reality on other basic levels, too.The indisputable fact is, that gold, far more than a mere attractive adornment to be indulged by goldbugs out of a fanciful inability to conform to modern concepts of social value, is uniquely endowed (Durability/permanance, beauty/desireability, rarity, etc. -- readers of this forum know this from memory) with all the necessary requisites of true money. Always has been so. And must continue to be so. Witness the Europeans with their quarterly mark to market of gold. Their treatment recognizes the monetary value of gold. Their recognition of this reality creates the reality that all others must also accept.FOA and Another are right. There can be no confiscation of gold, or of gold's value at this late stage in the game. That concept worked before. But it wouldn't work this time.Thank you, FOA and Another, for all your help in seeing beyond history. Following and digesting your thoughts is like seeing history as it unfolds. What an exhilarating experience! Peter Asher (10/21/00; 11:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 39579) ThaiGold, Caven Man Caven Man, well said!Let me add: Confiscation could most easily be achieved by going after only the speculative profit on a rising POG. After holding Gold down below $300 for this long, they could simply "Freeze" the price at that level or a bit higher and not create a global upset. The holders of Gold would have a much harder time getting public sympathy for an action that created a guaranteed, though small profit. Peter Asher (10/21/00; 11:07:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39578) Presidential mission statements I didn't write this, it came by E-mail so there is no link. While this is satire, I seriously think that, more important than any Third Party statement, A vote for Bush is one step closer to insuring that, no matter what, Gore and his handler's agenda do not get in control of anything.>>>>>Hello, I'm Al Gore, and I'd like to tell you about myself. I know a lot>about hardship, because I came into this world as a poor black child in a>tiny town in the backwoods of Tennessee. I was born in a log cabin that I>built with my own hands. I taught myself to read by candlelight andhelped>support my 16 brothers and sisters by working summers as a deck hand on a>Mississippi River steamboat.>My mother taught me the value of education, so every day; I would walk 5>miles to a one-room schoolhouse. I was a mischievous, fun-loving scamp,>though I never dreamed that one-day, my youthful escapades would serve as>the inspiration for "Huckleberry Finn." Back then, black folks in theSouth>were second-class citizens. One day, a traveling minister came through>town, and I asked him if anyone was ever going to do something>to guarantee civil rights for all Americans. Well, I guess I made an>impression. You see, the minister's name was Martin Luther King, Jr.>My father was a United States Senator. He once>perched me on his knee and said, "Son, if you work hard and listen to your>mama, someday you can live in a hotel in Washington, D.C., and go to an>exclusive prep school." But life of privilege was not for me. After>getting my high school diploma, I took a job in a hot, dirty textile mill.>I was so appalled at the treatment of the workers there that I organized a>union. Later, that experience inspired a movie - which is why, to thisday,>my close friends at the>AFL-CIO call me "Norma Rae." When word got out what an 18 year oldfactory>worker had done, Harvard called and offered me a scholarship.>I captained the hockey team to four consecutive national championships,but>I also played football and was good enough to win the Heisman Trophy.>During my college years, I lived in a housing project and moonlighted>playing lead guitar for a little rock band. You may have heard of it-the>Rolling Stones.>But there was a war going on, and I felt I had to serve my country. So I>enlisted in the U. S. Army and went to Vietnam. I was deeply opposed tothe>war, but I did my duty as a soldier and came back home with the Medal of>Honor and the Croix de Guerre, all in less than 4 months. When I gotback,>I took a long journey across this great land of ours. I've crossed the>deserts bare, man, I've breathed the mountain air, man, I've traveled,I've>done my>share, man, I've been everywhere. And the people I met at truck stops and>campgrounds and homeless shelters on that journey all said the same thing:>"Al, we need you in Washington." I knew they were right, but first I hadto>take care of some other business---building the World Trade Center,>founding the Audubon Society, doing the clinical research that proved>smoking caused cancer, and coming up with the recipe for Mrs. Field's>chocolate chip cookies. Finally, I deferred to the demands of the peopleof>Tennessee and allowed them to elect me to the House of Representatives and>the Senate, where I established the US Strategic Oil Reserve. And thenone>winter day nearly nine years ago, for no particular reason, I answeredthe>call of the people once again and took the oath of office as VicePresident>of the United States.>Since then, I've been part of the most successful>administration in American history. And, in my spare time, I invented the>Internet. Many times Bill Clinton has been pondering some grave decisionand>has asked me what to do. And when I would give him my thoughts, he would>invariable say, "Of course. That's brilliant. Why didn't I think ofthat?">During the darkest days of the impeachment battle, the president told mehe>only wished he had listend when I told him to stay away from that>dark-haired intern. So after I decided to run for president, I sat down>with him and asked if he had any suggestions about how to conduct my>campaign. And Bill Clinton gave me a few simple words of advice-wordsI'll>never forget. He looked me in the eye and he said, "Al, just tell the>truth, it's always worked for me." auspec (10/21/00; 10:58:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 39577) CEF Silence Ends/ Who Asked? The Question was, to paraphrase: How does the Central Fund of Canada compare to owning physical gold?Answer- It comes in 2nd as it is not actually in your posession like physical gold or silver are. Here's an extreme example- Say you're trying to escape a crumbling South Vietnam and you need to get the attention of your potehtial rescuers. They are not going to be real interested in your CEF shares, right? CEF does pay some dividends and is as safe as govt entities will allow it to be. Not likely to be stolen from your posession.Again there are advantages and disadvantages with CEF vs physical. It's called informed consent in the medical professions. Hope this helps some. CEF is more Champ than Chump IMHO, but will never be THE CHAMP!Got Posession?Auspec Humble Pie (10/21/00; 10:56:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39576) #39557, #39558 ThaiGold ,Now that's more like it.I meant no harm.Keep the comentary coming, but IMO when the meltdown occurs it will be anything but orderly and at that point,it's every man/woman for his/her self. Canuk, Don't feel so humble to day ,just got my Argentino's in the mail,very pretty indeed.makes the pie look better everday.As Ari sez Gold ,get it before its to late. auspec (10/21/00; 10:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39575) CHUMP CHANGE Sir Aristotle,Your Chimps, Champs, and Chumps essay is marvelous, and quite likely to produce even more Chump Change!The major issues with many gold investors is of course LEVERAGE, this is not a CD mentality group. On the other hand, who is wise that blindly ignores RISK?I confess to being largely a Chump, backwards looking, and to some degree overlooking physical in preference for shares. Am not an evolution guy, but something is happening {Changing} to my chromosomes {the XY IS STABLE, THANK YOU}! Find myself thinking, planning, and BUYING more like a Champ every month, probably more a metamorphosis than an evolution. The key us in understanding what form of Au you are investing in, and what are the respective risks. This Forum has illumuinated the risks involved in Au paper, shares, or physical. THANK YOU!!!!! Eyes are wide open now, looking behind, ahead, and at present environment.CLHE-HoF- This new entity is also evolving {Being Created actually}. If Randy will build it- They will come! This is an official 2nd to your nomination of Chimps, Champs, and Chumps #39302 to CLHE-HoF. This is a perfect example of using profound thinking blended with some left brain creativity. It really isn't that painful is it? Looking for numerous more 2nds- you do not need to be a Founder to nominate or give 2nds {new club-anything goes at this point}. I am curious as to how many Forum writers came to receive their handles, but you, Sir Aristotle, require no explanation. CoBra(too) (10/21/00; 10:35:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39574) test test- got computer probs - Cavan Man (10/21/00; 10:10:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39573) ThaiGold Confiscation can be vis a vis taxation. 1. I believe you are assuming the US has many "friends" throughout the world; many who would continue to enjoy US hegemony: we do not.2. I also believe you might be assuming the USD has not conquered the world and that competing nations will continue to support the USD to their own disadvantage: they will not.3. Further, I believe you are not accounting for the fact that gold is the global monetary/financial "currency" par excellence: it is.4. Lastly, you obviously discount the viability of this "freegold" system where a 5000 year old tangible asset can revert to its historic role as the ultimate store of value and a benchmark against which fiat can be measured (therby allowing continued central bank meddling etc. CB's will grow accustomed to this change and employ it to their mutual advantage.). I say, it (freegold) is in the making. We are not alone on this planet and other strong "hands" will make it so.5. PS: You are also assuming that the strong hands in the world who do hold gold as a monetary asset would allow their holdings to devalue drastically: THEY WILL NOT.Otherwise, I think your concerns about confiscation are well founded IMHO. Shermag (10/21/00; 09:47:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39572) ThaiGold Your:"Read my fine-print. Gold is non-exportable from the US.Severe penalties. Ditto in each coordinated foreign country.My:Cocain, heroin etc are also prohibited by law and severe panalty from crossing borders. If it is portable and beneficial to do so, it will flow.Shermag Marius (10/21/00; 09:19:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39571) Farfel & Dave C: the LP & "wasted votes" Dave C,The LP's published remarks on separation of government & banking warm this old anarchist's heart. Thanks for posting them here. Meet you at the polls?Farfel,A vote for Harry Brown is not "wasted". I know the perception is that winning is everything, but for minority parties that is not entirely the case. What the LP stands to win if it can get the votes is BALLOT STATUS. The only way for any party to compete with the biggies (in economic terms) is to not have to expend all their resources just achieving ballot status. I don't know what the other states require, but I believe NY's requirement is 50,000 votes for Governor or President. That's pretty tame compared to many other states, where restrictive requirements defeat minority parties before they ever get off the ground. My sources indicate that Brown may get as many votes as Nader & Buchannan combined. He'll get mine, that's for sure.M Galearis (10/21/00; 08:58:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39570) @DaveC & farfel Libertarianism Welcome Dave.Ironically if there is a global crisis and meltdown of the US financial system over the shenanigans of your current government, it would seem that a worst case scenario would result in many of the goals of libertarianism being achieved by default. Please excuse the atrocious pun (smile).Total freedom is not utopia, it is anarchy. Trail Guide (10/21/00; 08:50:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 39569) Comment -----------------------SteveH (10/21/2000; 5:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39550)Stuffhttp://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.htmlSnippet from above link (even the-Privateer is getting on the Euro for gold band wagon now):-----------------------Hello Steve,I'm hearing more and more where various commentators are allowing for a change in this direction. Most of them still do not think it's a real plausible event, but can at least see the pressures building in that way. When I said a few days ago that it was showtime, several major moves came out of the woodwork.Paris, Friday, October 6, 2000 ------- ECB Raises Key Rate ------ 'We see no threat to growth'' from this rate increase, Mr. Duisenberg said. He said the euro-zone economy was at ''cruising altitude.''----- "the forces underlying solid growth in the medium term remain in place"-----also: Dubai Monday, October 09, 2000 --------- Mr Jacques Santer, former president of the European Commission, has called on Gulf Arab oil exporters to price their crude in the euro rather than the US dollar as a means to stabilize the oil market --------- "It could be the instrument to consolidate oil markets" and would be less affected by US foreign policy, he told a Gulf-Euro conference in Dubai. ------ "Trust and partnership spirit between the Union and the GCC could well increase if we were to consider trading the barrel in the euro" instead of the dollar,-------- the future will certainly offer us opportunities for a move in this direction," he said, describing Europe as the world's biggest oil importer. ---------- "My contention is that the euro will move again toward parity with the US dollar by gradual extension of the euro in international transactions"--------Also:BAGHDAD (AFP) - - Iraq's central bank has begun to buy european currencies, following Baghdad's decision to stop using the dollar, the INA agency reported-------Iraq's cabinet commissioned a team of economists on September 14 to prepare a study on the possibility of using the euro or any other currency in Iraq's trade instead of the Dollar.----Steve, These were powerful diplomatic thrusts and they received very little commentary in our media. Santer's proposal is "in the works" as we speak and will impact the dollar now and for a long time into the future. It has to be appealing to the producers in that region because the bulk of their supply goes to EuroZone countries. Why do you think Duisenberg is playing his hands off policy so openly now? Market traders don't have a clue to the "whys" of his recent remarks. They think he is some fool. He's offering them (producers) a completely independent currency, exactly what they wanted and lobbied the ECB / BIS team for during pre Euro formation. We in the US are standing on our heads trying to explain how the Euro has fallen against the dollar. Stand on our feet and it's easy for anyone to see that the Euro is fine and in a strong position. It's the dollar that has risen far above other hard currencies lately. This whole scene is playing out in a fashion that will allow producers (and ultimately many others) to shift (sell) out of dollar reserves while it's over valued. I cannot stress enough how important this development is or it's influence on American money policy in the months and years ahead. Everyone thinks "showtime" means a spike in gold. In reality, it's all about a currency war that is setting the stage for a crushing failure in our gold pricing mechanism. I remember when we used to get post after post of Middle East experts telling us how the US had all these producers under their thumb. We would never allow them to raise prices, they said! Again, that's walking forward while looking backwards. In the early 90s desert storm era, this was true to a degree. But, I point out that the Euro was not available then and most everyone said it wouldn't even be born. Today, it's a whole new political initiative because money always talked louder than guns. Here we are with $30+ oil (who of these poster experts would have believed it, back then??? MK knew!) and the prospects are for it to go much much higher. So, what is our heavy handed, massive influence in the region doing to change this? Well, we take a serious, strong approach in the matter to show the world just how much our US military might can buy in production increases: "we release oil from our strategic oil reserve"!!! OK! That should send a signal that nothing has changed in the affairs, right??!! We rule that part of the world, right?!Steve, the whole notion that we would back out of any military conflict in that region because they dropped our dollar is ludicrous. We must defend their oil production at all costs, no matter what currency they use. We simply cannot afford to allow that supply to completely fund EuroZone development at a cheaper price than we can get it for. That is exactly what would happen if we do not continue to back their governments and economic systems. Without free military and funding for their economic structure's longevity, we would ultimately lose all influence in the region. This is strategic planing not discussed in the open by any of our want to be experts. For us (USA), keeping all oil, worldwide, priced somewhat par (in any currency vs the dollar) is extremely important to US vital interest. Both military and economic. So:Today, all Euro oil supply is headed to being priced and settled in Euros. This change will greatly impact world perception as to the value of holding US dollar reserves. It is a change that is now "on the table" and producers are not taking the decision lightly. Once the ball starts rolling, it's good buy dollar overvaluation,,,,, and hello US hyper inflation. Especially if we want to keep our DOW and financial structure away from bookkeeping failure. Roaring prices for goods, yes, but bookkeeping failure, no! This is how a real inflation plays out!ALL:Again, ThaiGold, Traveler and others make good points, but these positions do not factor in the political will that's now in process. ThaiGold's argument that physical gold will be confiscated has been around for a long time. It has often been used as a reason to buy paper gold substitutes (mine shares, ex?) because of their past response to such an action. But, today taking such a position is not working, is it? That's because it doesn't factor in the new "gold market direction" Another pointed to long ago. I only recently understood completely the ramifications of it. Anyone reading my Trails posts also understands it now. As far as to FreeGold and Legal Tender problems; our discussions about these items are numerous and date back to pre Thai days. Most of you long time readers have followed it as ORO, Aristotle and many others debated these issues.Whether our paper price making markets take contract gold values higher or lower here is not the complete issue. The whole presentation is based on an utter failure of the entire dollar markets for gold as they now exist in paper form. The little physical gold that trades relative to the gargantuan paper trading today, will be completely overwhelmed as the dollar is transitioned from reserve status. This "crushing of credibility" of paper gold will have an extreme impact on market valuations of all gold shares. "Semi hard money paper gold bulls" used to tell everyone that they would hold these shares through any crisis. Now we are finding out just hard their claim is in the face of the real ramifications of dollar destruction! The facts are that paper gold only functions well in "regular inflation's" like we saw in the 70s and 80s. When "real events" start marching our currencies into open warfare, paper gold is worthless. Unless you can hold them through a complete trading shutdown where their mark to the market value would be "ZERO"! Many market watchers have always said that the battle was between the dollar and gold. That was true until another digital currency could take it's (dollars) place. We have been putting this private discussion in front of the public for a few years now. Recently with the help of Aristotle, SteveH, TownCrier, ORO and many others posters (too many to mention), Michael Kosares's USAGOLD forums are blazing the trail for all to see. All of the many items ThaiGold posted today about government control of gold pertains to past policy in a different ""gold is official government money era"". The use of gold through that era is riddled with failure. In the future (see my latest Gold Trails) currency reserve competition will require a country to keep gold free for private trade. Making price discovery a physical affair only. This will come about in a completely different atmosphere from today where gold is still manipulated as a world "official currency" asset. Mostly now manipulated by a failing IMF/dollar system. The next reserve currency, the Euro will not compete with gold and will require it to find it's FreeGold value level. The US will have absolutely no incentive to controlling gold to defend it's currency in that era. Traveler,Hello sir! I certainly do respect your thinking and have agreed with some of it for some time. However, I believe that Another is very right in that "Events" are telling a different story than the one we are used to. I doubt we will ever see a real restrictive money policy in this country again. We shall see.Sir, I know oil from it's "down hole operations" into and "far past" the influence of the old Texas Commerce Bank! If those" Cherry Wood" wall on the 40th(??) floor (if they are still there) could talk, some tail they would tell. Indeed! But those days are long gone and far removed from today's reality. I don't think we could have ever had a very private conversation at the petroleum club, it you did know me you would know exactly why. (smile) :)Some people think I'm MK (hello Michael (smile)). Well, in my current time and stature of life, if two people saw a picture of Michael and myself, standing at "Roy's" for dinner,,,,,, You would most likely hear:-------------"OH! OH!, I know that one,,,, saw him on TV! He is in the movies!"NO! NO! he's Michael Kosares, very famous and photogenic ,,,, but I don't think he's been in hollywood" ,,,,, Who's the other one ,,,,,, standing kind of in the shadow?"OH! OH!, I know I've seen him before,,,,,, can't think of where,,,,,, Now I know,,,, saw him the other day ,,,,,,, He's Michael's ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, gardener?????????????----------------------------------------------HA HA, talk to everyone another day, on the trail.Trail Guide auspec (10/21/00; 08:45:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 39568) Netking #39547 Netking, Thanks for your insight and apt description of the Middle East mess. No peace yet and when they do arrive at "peace" there will be no peace. As long as Israel exists there will be no end in sight to this enmity, IMO.On another note relating to Jerusalem; The cornerstone for the third Jewish Temple was to be laid last Mon. the 16th, but the process was not allowed to go forward by the Jerusalem Police. Not exactly the best timing! Do you or anyone else know where this Temple is planned to be constructed in relationship to current Moslem holy site? Alongside, in place of? Thanks again. wolavka (10/21/00; 08:31:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39567) Check it out contacted many insurance cos' regarding 401k's. usual response time within one day. Now flooded with e mails cannot get back to me. I WONDER WHY?????????????????????????????????? Farfel (10/21/00; 08:19:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39566) @Dave C: re, Libertarian Party I see no chance for a Libertarian system except possibly as a solution to a true economic crisis in America. In my mind a vote for a Libertarian is a wasted vote.Instead, you need a leader (like Nader) who will work in the established system, yet is willing and able to stand up to the Federal Reserve/big corporations and insist they respect certain parameters of conduct....but nobody can hope to dismantle the Federal Reserve in the absence of some kind of monetary crisis in America.Although it is said a vote for Nader is a wasted vote too, I think that based upon the huge attendance he is getting in certain regions, he can obtain at least 10-15% of the vote, and if he does, then that will ensure that neither Gore nor Bush get the majority of the vote, and that puts the new government on alert as to the severe disenchantment with the corporate-led status quo and the imperative to address the concerns of that 15% of the populace. It could be the beginning of the end of this absurd two party dictatorship. I do not believe the mainstream polls that say he only has 1% of the vote any more than I believe that gold is trading in a free market. I have met too many people who plan to vote for him, on average two or three out of ten people I've personally polled.IMHO.ThanksF* ThaiGold (10/21/00; 08:18:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39565) More Feedback #3 Attn: Cavan Man & Mr Gresham Cavan Man (10/21/00; 07:06:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39562)=== Thank you. I'll try to behave myself. But it's difficult.Mr Gresham (10/21/00; 07:04:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39561)=== That link you posted (http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm)certainly contains some scary statistics, numbers and bombsto think about. I wonder if Alan Greenspan can even sleep.In my posted ... excerpts, I've only touched upon the effectsof the Government's rescue plan, as it would affect us herein the Forum, as GoldBugs and wannabee Physical holders.Of course, I've not extended it into the vast realm of additionalmeltdowns of credit bubbles and stock bubbles. Perhaps OROcould analyze and comment far better than I, on that aspect.It seems nobody has yet put forth any viable scenarios thatilluminate for us what the possible action(s) of government(s)would be to the many crises and meltdowns which are oftenforcast here in various postings. I feel it's time we considersuch issues. Before they are upon us. Which could be soon.Forcasting Doom-n-Gloom is easy. Pinpointing the workableaftermath and soloutions is more difficult, but seems worthy.My focus, is on the "probability" of confiscation or an alternateversion..." Virtual Confiscation". It would be more painless,easier to implement, and instantaneous. In-fact, it may evenoccur as a pre-emptive strike prior to the meltdown. As I'msure the Federal Reserve and Treasury will see it coming inenough time to act first. ie: the "sealed operational notebooks"of which you spoke. Perhaps I'm reading one now, as a mole.And whether or not the mintage of GoldEagles is large or not,is not relevant. I do not envision them becoming widespreadnor used much as circulating Legal Tender. But they can beif so desired. Unlikely, when one considers the old adage of"Bad Money drives out the Good Money".ie: people wouldhoard their GoldEagles, prefering to spend instead, perceivedless-valuable $50 bill paper currencies. Even though both are(then) fixed/decreed as equal by the government. My focuson this point was to mildly alleviate the worst fears of physicalGold buffs, to show them that they will still be able to retaintheir assortments of coins and bullion, and continue to enjoytheir Gold Fetish. Perhaps a harsh term, but in-fact, holdingGold after the Virtual Confiscation is law, will be simply that.A hobby. That indeed, costs them an extra 1% in IRS taxes.One must not lose site of the big picture. The meltdown ofthe Gold derivitive and carry stuff is only a small portion ofthe impending meltdown. And as I said, the government willneed to pull out all stops. Take no prisoners, and nothing andnobody nor institution will be sacred nor immune. It's gunna bea whopping meltdown, and they will have no choice but takestern and decisive measures. Cronyism and favorites and toobig to fail may become a moot point. When the very Republic itself is at risk. Sometimes, the government gets it right. Thiswill be such a time. I hope.Cordially,ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com ORO (10/21/00; 08:02:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39564) Taurus - bidding vs grabbing security put against debt When bidding for gold companies/mines a bank would put its cards on the table and create a bidding war. By lending and then forcing the borrower into default the bank can take the mine put up for security or gain an equity stake without having to bid. The price would be negotiated without bidding because the property would be distressed, thus having only vulture funds bidding against you, and their bids would be external to the bankruptcy restructuring. Canuck (10/21/00; 07:43:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 39563) @ Thaigold Good man.No posts allowed in the 'bragging' category! Cavan Man (10/21/00; 07:06:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39562) Hello ThaiGold Good to see you posting here again. Mr Gresham (10/21/00; 07:04:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39561) ThaiGold http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm Of course it's a concern, and with historical precedent we'd be stupid to ignore it. After all, we're citing history for the 1933 and 1971 dollar defaults on gold, aren't we?I think FOA's comment has been that the private percentage holding within the US now is so small relative to what's already in official vaults, that little is to be gained by another grab. Also, some private hands are favored ones.Hasn't the US Eagle issue been fairly small? -- check me, someone, but between 1-2 million oz. per year? Almost a commemorative function, not a monetary one, in their view?An overnight breakdown, once crisis passes the inflection point of any rescue chance, is a strong possibility. And I'm sure they have scenarios already in place, already distributed in sealed operational notebooks. But I wonder if ThaiGold was thinking the gold grab was somehow the cure for dollar collapse on the magnitude of the link I give above?oops gotta go, cat's threatening to vomit on my carpet...(sharing my feelings EXACTLY!) ThaiGold (10/21/00; 07:03:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39560) Let me Check..... Attn: Canuck Canuck (10/21/00; 06:48:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39558)=== Good Saturday Morning to you too, Sir Canuck.!.Thanks for the glowing resume'.I just checked.... I'm still a male.Regards.ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com ThaiGold (10/21/00; 06:55:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39559) More Feedback #2 Attn: SteveH SteveH (10/21/2000; 5:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39550)==== Regarding that Judges's mark-to-market decision:He musta been one of those "raving left wing liberal academics who has never had ahonest job. Might even be a Govt mole coming out ofdeep cover" that Humble Pie mistook me for.Under the government's rescue scenario, such disputeswould henceforth be settled at Gold's locked Virtual valueof US$ 50/oz. That would be fair to all parties. And wouldsave the landowner some property tax to boot. Is that fair,or what.?.Regards.ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com Canuck (10/21/00; 06:48:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39558) Good Saturday morning Hey Humble, how's the pie!!! (Just kidding) Thaigold has been in 'lurkerland' for a while; he/she's a oldie from way back. Thaigold presented strong arguments for silver and confiscation some 4-12 months ago. It brought out long serious discussions for a few weeks.There probably are 'weasels' on this forum from time to time but they get weeded out quickly. Thaigold is not in that category. As an aside, perhaps one should not rule out Thaigold's thinkin