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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/20/2006 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) mikal (4/20/06; 22:35:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 143426) Yuan and US Dollar compared http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2006/04/21/2003303853 Rogers Sees Yuan Becoming Reserve Currency - Taipei Times - Bloomberg - April 21, 2006 Goldilox (4/20/06; 22:18:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 143425) Drug Trafficking and counterfeiting @ TIH,The Chinese would just be watering their own massive holdings down by counterfeiting US dollars. It would take many semi-truck loads to even dent their $800 B in US dollar reserves. Probably not even cost effective - LOL. It's much easier to take over our industries.As far as drug trafficking, the Mena, Arkansas Drug Cartel has no room to point fingers at anyone else's drug trafficking.Maybe the North Koreans will get their own show for their smuggling efforts like Oliie North!The more treacherous the financial waters get the more they will result to mis-direction plays. mikal (4/20/06; 21:40:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 143424) Trillions in derivatives(swaps) chasing prosperity or calamity? http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/silberman042006.html Will Derivatives Cause This Market To Fail?Greg Silberman - April 17, 2006Interview with ex-London swap originator covers number(size of market said to rival bonds) and types of derivatives, select examples and some of the impacts and unique risks.A brief refresher course with a closing opinion on an economic collapse later in the year precipitated by an exogenous event and magnified many times by derivatives. The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 20:06:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 143423) What didn't I think of this earlier? drug trafficking http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060420/pl_nm/korea_north_fraud_dc_2 SNIPThe North Korean spokesman said the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency had enlisted the help of artists in Japan to produce and distribute video tapes and CDs that falsely accuse North Korea of violating human rights and conducting illicit activity.+The talks have hit a snag over a U.S. crackdown on firms Washington suspects of aiding North Korea in illicit activities such as counterfeiting and drug trafficking.North Korea has said it is unthinkable for it to return to the nuclear talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States when Washington is trying to topple its rulers through financial pressure. ==Is it really so difficult for Amerikans to accept that the dollar is toast?As Dr. Nathaniel Branden writes op p. 142 of his book "Taking responsibility" (Simon & Schuster, 1996) Confront the pain, then accept and let go, and frame this very act as an expression of newfound self-assertiveness and self-responsibility. The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 19:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 143422) Meanwhile … http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4925704.stm SNIPMr Bush urged Mr Hu to take action over the yuan. US producers say its low value is a barrier to exports to China, and has contributed to the massive US trade deficit with China - which reached $202bn (£113bn) last year. ==Well, if China (or N-Korea) is counterfeiting the greenback (which they are not), then the supply of greenbacks increases, its value decreases, so the value of the yuan vis-à-vis the greenback increases and Mr Hu has taken appropriate action over the yuan. That's why the CIA took action itself.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4919362.stmNorth Korea … has been boycotting talks on its nuclear weapons programme in protest against the US financial squeeze. mikal (4/20/06; 19:47:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 143421) Oil http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=54518 Big 7.7 earthquake in Russian Far EastNo word yet on casualties or damage to pipelines or other infrastructure.Bank of Ireland: Oil may make swift advance to at least $82.30 in near term - Finfacts.com - April 20, 2006 The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 19:40:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 143420) A = A Contradictions cannot exist.Check your premises. The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 19:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 143419) It's the CIA and the military, stupid! http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1864340&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312 SNIPNorth Korean police said late Wednesday that authorities have obtained "shocking information" the CIA hired counterfeit experts to produce fake currencies at U.S. military bases worldwide. "They let these notes find their way to the [Democratic People's Republic of Korea,] DPRK and go out of it in the course of commercial transaction in a desperate bid to term it 'producer of counterfeit notes,'" the North's Ministry of People's Security said in the statement, carried by the country's official Korean Central News Agency. ==Can you spell "police state"?Menschen, Menschen, Menschen, what's happening? The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 19:30:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 143418) It ‘s not Korea, it's the US of A ttp://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200604/200604040019.htmlSo-called supernotes, high-quality counterfeit 100 dollar bills suspected of originating in North Korea,The Heritage Foundation also says it's the North (and Beijing)http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/wm1046.cfmA considerable amount of circumstantial evidence points to Chinese complicity in North Korea's counterfeit currency networks.I should learn to read what I copy. The BBC is also saying that the notes originate in the North:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4919362.stmAmerican secret service agents have been in the South Korean capital, Seoul, on the trail of the famed "supernotes" - expertly forged hundred dollar bills that the US says are made by the North Korean government.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060420/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_us_counterfeiting_1North-Korea has accused the United States of counterfeiting its own currency to fabricate evidence that the communist state is engaged in manufacturing fake U.S. hundred dollar bills. The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 19:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 143417) Korea This seem to be capitalist South-Korea, not the socialist North, which is helping to achieve the annihilation of the greenback. Golden Lionheart (4/20/06; 17:43:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 143416) Iranian gold I guess somebody will soon come out and gloat about the way we have hammered the Iranian gold buyers who bought heavily in recent days. Don't mess with Uncle Sam!Good to see this reaction in the gold price, time to top up at a lower price ready for the push to great heights later this year.Get gold! Flatliner (4/20/06; 17:31:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 143415) @Volatility and separation I am looking forward to 26 years from now. Then, I will expect people to say something like - the reason why I'm not holding US currency is because of the great inflation in 200x. The ramifications of the mistreatment of the right to print ‘money’ will have long lasting, severe ramifications. If the speculation ratio is 16 to 1 for silver contracts, expect that to be used as a tool to keep speculation at a manageable level. At the same time, one would expect reports, in the coming weeks, that show a huge spike in buying from the ETFs (regarding gold) on this down turn. With every other down turn they have seen to it to pile in. One would expect that as these buying opportunities come along, the noose gets cinched just a little tighter each time. The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 17:25:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 143414) government counterfeiting of governmentally counterfeited material http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4919362.stmAmerican secret service agents have been in the South Korean capital, Seoul, on the trail of the famed "supernotes" - expertly forged hundred dollar bills that the US says are made by the North Korean government. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4927736.stmPoland's central bank has revealed a new banknote depicting the late Polish-born Pope John Paul II.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4928936.stmThe alleged head of the Sicilian Mafia, Bernardo Provenzano, arrested last week, has refused to answer questions in his first official interrogation. Goldilox (4/20/06; 17:24:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 143413) Today's gold action http://www.jsmineset.com/ snip:The old gang had nothing to do with this. The $612 magnet slingshot gold to $630 and it reacted. Nothing here is out of the ordinary and the violence is natural to a major bull market in gold. Magnets pull a price up to it. As it crosses the number the same magnet has the ability to pull it back.Top callers are a hard lot to understand. Every one of them so far has been so completely wrong one would expect they would be quite embarrassed. It appears they are so crass that being a public fool makes no difference. They want you to come to their website where they sell advertising.The good people need only to stop listening to these people. Forget the bears on websites trying to sell their case to a point moving beyond the first amendment.Gold is headed to $682 on its path to $887.70 and $1650. All the noise and fury created by gold trading funds today is madness. Eventually when sharks feed on sharks the gene pool is badly culled.Relax and go about your business. Await the inevitable much higher price objectives. Goldilox (4/20/06; 17:10:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 143412) Volatility and separation @ TC, your quote:"Is it possible that if/when some speculators get bucked off hard enough, they never get on again? With the loss of those lil' buckaroos, what impact might that begin to have on the participation levels (liquidity) in silver futures?"Twenty-six years later, we still see the effects of the 1980 speculative rodeo on gold - and silver as well.More than half the people I talk to who are not following PMs give 1980 as the reason.Whiie I have no quarrel with the "differences" between gold and silver as investment vehicles, expecting major decoupling is perhaps, well, speculation of another kind. Matthew (4/20/06; 16:56:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 143411) Silver verses Gold How much influence does China have re the price of silver?What are their reserves, and their refinery capacity? Are they the the tap that regulates/influences the PoS? USAGOLD Daily Market Report (4/20/06; 16:28:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 143410) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.THURSDAY Market ExcerptsApril 20 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dropped Thursday to close with a loss of almost $13 an ounce and silver prices gave back nearly 14%, prompting concern that the weakness may signal a broader correction in the metals from their more than two-decade highs."As is so often the case in the precious metals, corrections tend to be vicious and quick," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek."With the major move higher over the past several sessions, the gold market is working off some of the excesses."COMEX June gold contracts fell as much as $25.50, or 4%, to a low of $610.50, its lowest level since Monday, after closing out Wednesday's session at a more than 25-year high of $636. The June contract recovered a bit to close down $12.90, or 2%, at $623.10.Gold will find support in the low $600s, then around $580 -- "should it need to correct a bit more," said Spina.Given the price drop, Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter warned: "it's time to take out a caution flag. Many classic signs of frothiness now abound in commodities in general and while no one can ever pinpoint exact tops, this is not a good time to first become aggressively bullish," he said, warning that "a sharp 10%-20% correction is lurking out there."---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)--- TownCrier (4/20/06; 16:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 143409) More on volatility versus stability From DowJones:"At its contract high, May silver was up a whopping 61% from its Feb. 14 low of $9.14. At its contract high, June gold was up 20% from its March 10 low of $540.20."At current levels above those same recent benchmark lows, silver is still riding high in the saddle, up nearly 30%, gold is up 13+%.Is it possible that if/when some speculators get bucked off hard enough, they never get on again? With the loss of those lil' buckaroos, what impact might that begin to have on the participation levels (liquidity) in silver futures?What's fine for attracting more gamblers and speculators is not so suitable for attracting those who are especially looking to reliably protect and build their wealth in a steady-as-she-goes manner.Perhaps this will foster yet more volatility in silver, and more steady growth stability gold such that a separation is underway. In the future, maybe it will be only in old Christmas songs that we shall continue to hear 'silver' and 'gold' being mentioned together in the same breath.Much like the separation we see today between dice and Crown Jewels.R. Goldilox (4/20/06; 16:12:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 143408) Relative movement of Ag and Au @ TC,I think today's action underlines the fact that silver is moved a lot more by spec action than gold. Ag certainly fell further, but had also risen more steeply.Smaller market, less conservative, more risk/reward potential!my $0.04, inflation adjusted. TownCrier (4/20/06; 15:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 143407) Gold and silver Relatively speakingFrom spot silver's overnight highs to its present place (probing the bottom) of its trading range today reflects a 19+ percent move.For spot gold to have equalled that incredible range, it would have had to come down its $645 overnight high by approximately $123. Instead, it fell only a shade under $40, and presently sits $30 off the overnight high, simply revisiting its levels of a couple days ago -- Monday and Tuesday.Does anyone care to tally up some of the fundamental differences to explain the radically different behavior of late?Will there be lessons to be learned as time marches on, or is this still all just a case of six one way and a half-dozen the other?R. 968 (4/20/06; 14:15:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 143406) A Call for Cooperation: What the IMF and its Members Can Do to Solve Global Economic Problems http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2006/042006.htm Speech by Rodrigo de RatoManaging Director, International Monetary FundAt the Institute for International Economics Lunch Meeting to Discuss Reform of the IMFWashington, D.C.April 20, 2006 SNIPS :"The days when G7 finance ministers could sit in a hotel room and make decisions about exchange rates are gone. There are new players in the global economy: at the moment China and some of the major oil producers have a significance in the global economy that they didn't have even ten years ago. As the global economy changes further, other players will become prominent. And all of the countries engaged in global economic policy making have to be aware of the awesome and unpredictable power of the financial markets. This is a whole new ball game.""Multilateral consultations would be something new for the IMF and for our member countries, and they would be an important vehicle for analysis and consensus building.""I have proposed a more systematic assessment of the consistency of exchange rate policies with national and international stability and an extension of the IMF's multilateral framework for assessing equilibrium exchange rates, which currently covers industrial countries, to the major emerging market currencies. But in looking at global imbalances, we must focus not only on exchange rates: consideration of exchange rate policy must go hand in hand with consideration of supporting policies, for example fiscal adjustment in the United States and structural reforms that boost consumption in China.""Introducing high access contingent financing arrangements would have advantages for both emerging market economies and the broader Fund membership. Emerging markets would benefit from an added level of protection against crises, and would need less in the way of precautionary holdings of reserves, which have a substantial opportunity cost."----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Emerging markets would benefit from an added level of protection against crises, and would need less in the way of precautionary holdings of reserves, which have a substantial opportunity cost ????? Why not replace them by goldreserves valued in a "free" market ?The rest of the commentary is already perfectly formulated by Towncrier in his previous post. Thanks. mikal (4/20/06; 13:02:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 143405) A one year upbeat Au outlook http://news.ft.com/lex/investmentnav Lex Investment Navigator - April 2006Various asset classes and regions graded by sentiment-positive, neutral or negative.In US category, gold given a positive. Goldilox (4/20/06; 12:40:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 143404) Crimex @The Hoople, Flatliner,Didn't mean to confuse you guys. My "gold dervatives" are actually mining stocks. I wouldn't know where to begin playing Crimex, and certainly don't want to start now. The Hoople (4/20/06; 12:24:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 143403) Flatliner, Goldilox Flatliner: "I feel for all paper investors" .... on margin or don't know what the hell they're doing. The 5% that do make money are tickled pink. Goldilox: The Crimex isn't my favorite institution either but the margin increases have been reasonable in keeping the ratio of contract value to margin funds at about 16/1. Keep in mind the shorts also suffer on these margin increases, at least the ones outside of Goldman Sachs who apparently own the printing press to cover the margin. Goldilox (4/20/06; 11:03:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 143402) Wall St. Myopia As the Crimex wraps up for the day, one sees that the closing price is nearly equivalent to yesterday's close. Isn't it interesting that all the volatility of the evening and morning trade was sufficient only to quell the huge after market rally, but not erode the PoG in the Comex itself.These wild swings in foreign markets gotta be giving traders serious Maalox moments. Flatliner (4/20/06; 10:43:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 143401) Ah... Goldilox... Rules - rule the day. http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm "In a related development, my buddy the gold and silver trader tells me that margins were pushed up again last night from $4,360 for the NY Comex silver contract to $5,065 for NY Comex silver." Your comment now shines. You are most wise and observant. My hat is off to you!I do remember similar rule changes in Japan a few months back that shook the markets just as hard. If I remember correctly, the same change set the market in a downward trend that lasted a few weeks. To me, this is good news. It's an opportunity to spread the word and get a diehard friend to pick up some physical. Goldilox (4/20/06; 10:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 143400) Paper investors @ Flatliner,Yeah, I really "feel" for the investors who bought my "gold derivatives" yesterday and are giving them back to me at 8-10% reductions today - NOT!-G'lox TownCrier (4/20/06; 09:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 143399) IMF aims for multilateral talks on imbalances http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060420:MTFH99935_2006-04-20_14-20-47_WAT005349&rpc=44 WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - ...the IMF would aim to begin multilateral consultations with key world economic powers to help correct worrying imbalances in international trade and finance."Coordinated action would be both politically easier, and...economically more effective than governments in systemically-important countries acting alone," Rato told a news conference, adding this would include liaison with the likes of the European Union or the Gulf Cooperation Council."We believe that would be an important vehicle for analysis and consensus-building prior to policy action," said Rato."These consultations will enable the Fund and members to propose actions to address vulnerabilities that affect individual members and the global financial system," he said.^---(from url)---^Definitely not your father's IMF.Evolving to stay relevant. It's significant that the EU and GCC were singled out to be mentioned specifically for liaison.Seems all the more clearly that the dollar-reserve stage (II) of Bretton Woods is entering its death throes and the IMF wants to serve the coffee (have something to do) as the rest of the world gathers around to talk about it and formulate crisis mitigation strategies.R. Flatliner (4/20/06; 08:59:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 143398) Shakin’ free of paper At moments like this, I feel for all paper investors. OvS (4/20/06; 06:45:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 143397) Menschen--Italian? My foot. The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 06:39:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 143395) Financial Armageddon rescheduled to Akshay Tritiya, April 30 Google gives this, but I can't openIOB launches gold coinsBusiness Standard, India - 1 hour agoIndian Overseas Bank (IOB) seems to be gearing up for Akshay Tritiya (auspicious day to buy gold) that falls on April 30.Nor can I open the site of the Business Standard, India www.business-standard.comhttp://newstodaynet.com/20apr/bu1.htmSNIPIOB has tied up with leading showrooms like RmKV, Naidu Hall and Saravana Selvarathinam to set up sales counters in their stores on Akshaya Tritiya to facilitate buying of gold on that occasion. The bank would soon be retailing denominations in 100 gms too as orders had already been place from the exporter.http://www.salagram.net/parishad66.htmSNIPAkshaya Tritiya day is the very auspicious day - there's no inauspiciousness to be found today so even checking muhurthas is considered unnecessary, so auspicious it is. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (4/20/06; 06:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 143394) Make a risk-free request to help you enter the gold market with grace and confidence. http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html mikal (4/20/06; 03:35:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 143393) IMF assumes greater "technical and political" challenges http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/04/20/imf_to_implement_monitoring_of_exchange_rates/ IMF to Implement Monitoring of Exchange Rates - The Boston Globe - April 20, 2006 In advance of a weekend IMF and World Bank meeting, IMF announced it's seeking to modernize and buttress it's "legitimacy" through various changes. Among these are monitoring of exchange rates, levels of investment, savings and personal consumption and reweighting member voting system toward increases for many emerging economies such as Mexico and Turkey. mikal (4/20/06; 02:46:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 143392) More factors supportive of gold http://www.basemetals.com/content/reports/bm/william/W060420.htm Roaring Gold, is it Bullish for Base Metals?BaseMetals.com Morning Report | UK | April 20, 2006 The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 02:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 143391) Reuters Australia quotes POG already in EUR and again in GBP http://investor.ninemsn.com.au/investor/news/commodities/story_detail.asp?index=17919 SNIPGold rose in other currencies too, with prices per ounce (XAUEUR=R) jumping to a record high of 597.89 euros and hitting a two-decade high of 351.69 sterling (XAUGBP=R). The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 01:26:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 143390) The other IOB http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/04/20/stories/2006042004490600.htm SNIPAlthough the gold retailing product, which IOB calls `Fine Gold', was launched only today, the bank has been in gold business since 1997, when the RBI appointed the bank as one of the nominated agencies to import and sell precious metals in the Indian market. Over the years, IOB has sold 27 tonnes of gold valued at Rs 9,984 crore, the background note says The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 00:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 143389) Gold coins are Iranians' political hedge fund http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a2ad983e-d009-11da-80fb-0000779e2340.html Headline:Iranians' rush to buy gold highlights nuclear and economic uncertaintiesMenschen, Menschen, Menschen, now all the pieces of the puzzle are slowly falling to together.The big picture is arising.The title of this message is a snip."Menschen" means "humans" in Italian. The Invisible Hand (4/20/06; 00:36:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 143388) IOB sells 36 kg gold, not barrils oil, on launch day http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/newsarticle/stocksnews.php?autono=210737 SNIPIndian Overseas Bank today began gold retailing with a "better than expected" performance on the first day. The bank sold over 4,600 coins of various weights, totalling 36 kg. At today's prices, this would be valued at close to Rs 3.25 crore. ==IOB is no longer the Iranian Oil Bourse. Cycling (4/20/06; 00:26:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 143387) Spot Market On GOLD and Silver Spot seems to be in lock step with Gold and Silver on the Kitko site, at least for the last few days. Anyone notice this? A large institution or big money Pockets? Games are being worked, and to who's Benifit?? ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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