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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/20/2005 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) PRITCHO (8/20/05; 22:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 135162) Gold/Oil Ratio Extremes 3 - -- - Worth The Read http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton081905.html SNIP -- -This 1970s Great Commodities Bull pushed both elite commodities up to their all-time inflation-adjusted highs as well. In today's dollars, oil exceeded $95 per barrel in April 1980. Gold ended January 1980 at $1690 in today's dollars, truly impressive. And while this chart is composed of monthly data, if gold's all-time daily closing high on January 21st, 1980 is considered in 2005 dollars, it now runs about $2140 per ounce!These all-time highs are important to consider as we ponder the GOR extremes evident today. At $67 today oil is already three-quarters of the way to hitting new all-time real highs. But gold, at $440 today, is only one-quarter of the way to achieving new record highs. Bull to date crude oil is up nearly 500% in recent years while gold is pushing just 70%. Just as in 1976 we are presented with three scenarios … gold soars, oil collapses, or the GOR relationship implodes. Which will it be? gv (8/20/05; 22:52:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 135161) Re: Belgian / Gold mobilization II Belgian,I have found your postings to be insightful and very intelligent. I hope not to take your comments out of context, and I am just playing a little tiny bit of devil's advocate, for a simpleton newbie like me. :)--> "Goldmetal (wealth) must represent again 100% UNIVERSAL PURCHASING POWER and nothing else. Real purchasing power is real wealth. This principle is not a cake for those who live on a permanent debt/deficit culture and don't see any purpose for wealth saving (and intact transfer)."This is where I stumble. Yes, we find Kings of old buried with their Gold Metal and nothing else. I do agree there seems to be an intrinsict value of Gold because of its scarcity compared to other elements on the periodic table, and because it is fungible and transferrable.But in the US Dollar-based pricing discovery mechanism, ever since gold was "freed" in the early 70's, I humbly submit that in Dollar terms, unless you were very shrewd to have purchased Gold at $45 per ounce, in Dollar terms, we really haven't "Preserved Purchasing Power". It's been brought up here before. The last 20 years in Dollar terms, Gold hasn't been the greatest of "wealth preservations".I agree in theory, that it -SHOULD-. Gold -should- preserve and sustain Buying Power and "Wealth Preservation" over time. Whether it does or does not... or has or has-not.. I guess it is because of two things: Either market forces and free markets have placed a lower value on Gold, or there is some unseen "Powers That Be", pulling the strings on all of us. I am still debating the word "Wealth" in my mind and objective stores of value. I am starting to believe there is no true wealth in the world. It's all temporary, ethereal transfers of "something" with no basis on anything except for confidence that the "something" can be transferred further. Unit of transactions.If I had to define, "Wealth", the best I could come up with is the ownership + control over recurring, value-generating entities. Either it is your own mind (you are wealthy because you have a level of intelligence,knowledge,experience to provide a needed service to others in an employed sense), or you are the owner of a company which produces things + services that other people require. In my opinion, true "wealth" would be to own several sustaining businesses in geographically different locations, each business in a different field.The "Savings" you speak of would be re-investment in other businesses or expansions in existing businesses. I really would LOVE to see, whether it is Gold Metal or some other physical thing, a totally market-driven Objective store of Purchasing Power, but I don't see how we can transition from the current market-driven forces to that. What would happen? Suddenly, the price of Gold Metal goes to $30,000 per ounce or whatever number (to make up for the past 20 years), and then fluctuates based on Dollar-M3 expansion.. ? Or fluctuates based on Total Bank Credit expansion.. ? Maybe I am missing the point entirely.. The Invisible Hand (8/20/05; 20:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 135160) Euro faces a derivatives-based competitor, the Bootho http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2005/08/21/cnbooth21.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2005/08/21/ixcity.html 'The bootho will be bigger than the euro'By James Hall (Filed: 21/08/2005)SNIPRichard Booth, the second-hand book retailer and self-appointed King of Hay-on-Wye, the Welsh book town famous for its literature festival, is planning to launch a new international currency, "the bootho", which he claims will be more widely used than the euro.Last week, Booth held talks with a London-based specialist derivatives dealer about setting up an international currency exchange on which boothos can be bought and sold.http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1553111,00.htmlSNIPthe fact that the public still expects inflation to be contained despite oil prices at $65 a barrel is an indication of the confidence Greenspan has been able to command. 'We believe in the Fed's ability to deliver low and stable inflation’ heavy mettle (8/20/05; 20:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 135159) (No Subject) The New World Order is NOT limited to the US and its backers or its dominance of world politics, oil or gold. Assuming that one country carries its flag is divided thinking. The NWO idea was more than likely hatched in Europe's very own back yard. Jim Sinclair has it right when he labels it ‘Authoritarian Free Enterprise’ as one can see its effects with modern governments everywhere; U.S.A., Europe, Russia, China, etc., taking more and more liberties with yours under the guise of fighting terrorism. Welcome to whatever one labels it as it's an equal opportunity employer everywhere. TownCrier (8/20/05; 15:56:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 135158) Belgian, Thanks for the solid synopsis -- a clear view of our real world as it turns.R. Belgian (8/20/05; 13:15:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 135157) Gold mobilization II The euro initiative to re-distribute (re-allocate) goldmetal serves the purpose of re-instating gold as a non-money wealth reserve under the mtm regime. Such a regime would not work when the one entity managing the euro numeraire would be the biggest owner of the gold as reserve.There must always be good reasons for gold exchange (the metal that is). That's how gold functions as a wealth barter once again. This principle fits perfectly in oil and Asia's strategies (policies)...and Euroland too as we can call this blocks ...the savers in sharp contrast with the AA credit (debt) culture !Any fiat should only/exclusively be backed by its legal tender status and by nothing else ! FreeGold will tell each and every currency how good or bad it is managed and worth its "use".The re-privatization of the goldmetal in the US in 1974 already signaled that no government is worth the fiat it is issuing. Fiat has never been and will never become a "saving" instrument (gold-alternative). This becomes very visual for the general public in the present environment of abnormal low interest rates versus the real price inflation. It will become much clearer when the housing boom stagnates (no massive crashing) and the global economy isn't able to restart a stable growth.Gold wealth for saving and fiat numeraire for trade ! How simple. The Asian factor and the change in oil pricing will force the $-IMS to switch to this principle once again. That's why the availability of the goldmetal continues to decline...and this is even less visible in the price of gold for the same reason as in the run up to the eighties : bid for goldmetal and we shoot its price to the moon so nobody gets an ounce in possession. A finalized goldmetal redistribution will not have to face that same old problem. That's why the PBoC brings goldmetal to the public (1,2 billion souls). This is increasingly happening in the expanding center of Dubai. Goldmetal (wealth) must represent again 100% UNIVERSAL PURCHASING POWER and nothing else. Real purchasing power is real wealth. This principle is not a cake for those who live on a permanent debt/deficit culture and don't see any purpose for wealth saving (and intact transfer).We, the historic supporters of the $-IMS, cannot keep on fighting (opposing) the growing factions on the planet that still desire to save (culturely embedded) in a universal wealth tangible (gold). Don't ever dream to succeed in paperizing an Asian's goldmetal wealth !!! And w're talking here about half the globe's population ...growing by...100 (one hundred) million a day !And here I cite FOA again : The difference between " use-function " and " value-function " of our (US$) money, was most surely convoluted for political gain and banking credit interest.In a globalizing planet no NWO will ever succeed in mega dominance for ever ! Watch how the formation of different factions is indeed succesfully evolving...against the efforts of the NWO. Russia and China are having joint military excercises...!!! What an enormous change. Goldilox (8/20/05; 12:26:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 135156) Trading with the Enemy Act - a political farce Notice how it only applies to the Non-connected.Ollie North was subpeonaed by Congress about trading cocaine for guns in Nicaragua and swapping guns for Afghani heroin with the Iranians. Gee, I wonder who he sold those "commodities" to? We never heard that part! When he was indicted for lying his a$$ off, George the First quickly pardoned him and Reagan denied any knowledge, even while declaring bin Laden's boyz heroes and dedicating the Space Shuttle to the "Freedom Fighters in Afghanistan".During WWII, Standard Oil (John D. Rockefeller) maintained producing wells in Axis Saudi Arabia and Ford continued production of trucks in Vichy France- both to supply Hitler's war machine. Neither was ever questioned about the practice, except by the "liberal" press.Will gold suffer confiscation again? Probably not, unless some enterprising bureaucrat can figure out how to do it without the US taxpayers responding as Iran did when their treasury assets were "frozen" for the deposed Shah's benefit.A strong reason for vilification of gold ownership is to maintain a small enough gold community that we can be considered "collateral damage" by the greater electorate should they decide to confiscate or "freeze" public assets to support their "dirty little wars". After all, gold confiscation in 1933 affected almost everyone as gold coins were in circulation. In 2005 forward, gold owners probably number onlly in the hundreds of thousands or few millions. Goldilox (8/20/05; 11:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 135155) Evaporation Ned,The only way Israel gets "evaporated" is if someone upwind decides thay have had enough. Most of the oil producing Arab countires are downwind and would make their own homes unliveable from the fallout.We who get our "nuclear information" from Hollywood don't think about that too much. Fallout and long term damage stopped being "mentioned" after "Dr Strangelove - How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb".I especially love the idiots that say "Just nuke them and take the oil". I guess glowing exhaust pipes don't bother these "iron men". Chris Powell (8/20/05; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 135154) Treasury claims power to seize gold and silver -- and everything else http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3276 In a letter to GATA, the U.S. Treasury Depatment issues a remarkably comprehensive claim of tyrannical power.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com mikal (8/20/05; 10:15:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 135153) Trade sanctions mulled, but no bombardment http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/08/12/wiran112.xml Iran Bomb Production at Least 10 Years Away - August 12, 2005 - London Telegraph Ned (8/20/05; 09:35:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 135152) Thanks for the link ge It is clear that oil producing countries will become bolder as the years go by. They perceive, and rightly so, their 'clout' getting stronger with each passing year. OPEC's contribution to world production gets larger, as a percentage, as time rolls on. Producers get bolder & stronger, consumers become more and more desparate.This is what sets the stage for WW III. Examples of each include Iran's new bold step w/ continued uranium enrichment and "try to stop me now" attitude and Mr. Bush's 'stunt' in Iraq. What is also clear is that sides are being picked, Venezueula is siding up to Iran. China although not stated as such, is also cozzying up to Iran. Japan and the UK are clearly allies of the U.S. Gotta wonder about Israel calling the U.S. & Europe 'spineless', this thing gets going and Israel is the first place 'evaporated'. We are about to witness who has big balls. No idea of a timeframe but gotta think this can't go on for another year.Thoughts? USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/20/05; 09:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 135151) Especially designed for those who are taking their first step... http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/starter.html Belgian (8/20/05; 09:07:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 135150) Gold Mobilization : Facts : During the past decade, the whole planet knows that euro-gold...EURO GOLD !...was officially on the move...mobilized ! Other $-allied CBs, also mobilized an amount of their gold-reserves. It is only the UST that never communicated any gold mobilization initiative ! The USTreasury only renamed its goldreserves...changed the status of its goldreserve.Remember that the planet had gold mobilizations before : FDR confiscated citizen's gold and stated that gold should only be stored in government's hands in the Treasury's vaults. Then in 1974, gold was mobilized again when US citizens were allowed to store goldmetal once again (state gold + private gold). Another kind of gold mobilization was the shipping of goldmetal from the US (20.000 tonnes) vaults to Europ and other places.In other words...there have been several important gold mobilizations...or shall we call these mobilizations...gold exchanges !All this gold was mobilized/exchanged under an expanding dollar-regime. The past decade, the general public is superficially informed about a certain mobilization of...EURO GOLD...gold from the European System of Central Banks ...where private gold was never confiscated, and never will !Time we ask ourselves if there is a fundamental difference between the previous $-gold mobilization and the recent €-gold mobilization !!!The exchange of dollar-gold served the dollar's global expansion, and the present exchange of euro-gold serves...yep, the ambitions of the euro's expansion within the expanding EU>EMU and beyond. Yes, we are in the dark as to what the real nature of this euro gold mobilization/exchange, really is. Is it re-distribution / re-allocation / privatization / ...other.Bear in mind that the $-gold stayed in the IMF and couldn't be mobilized/exchanged. It is euro-gold that moves (full circle or not).Is it the old -$-Gold Exchange standard that is death and a new -€- Gold Exchange Standard that is born ...as to introduce the € competitor as a global settlement numeraire !? Just like the dollar did for decades whilst expanding outside the US with no legal tender status.What is more important for the euro's global ambitions...a constitution or a new (€) gold-regime (smile MK) !?Does such a euro-gold system needs military super status, when embraced by the rising blocks on the planet ? Even the Swiss and the UK officially mobilized half their gold reserves ...in contrast with the UST gold that is still lying in the vaults ( encumbered or not -?).How will the tender status of dollar and euro, outside their respective borders, evolve under the 2 different gold-exchange regimes ? A fixed price $-gold regime versus a €-MTM gold regime. What kind of "political value" are both numeraires gaining or losing under the present evolving geopolitical circumstances ? How is the systemic rising US trade deficit affecting the dollar status versus a Euroland that has a trade surplus ? Can one defend one's currency (its political acceptance and use) with permanent war ?Is the ESoCBs delivering (perform with gold) into its promesess towards Asia and specific oilstates (gold mobilization/exchange) ...supporting the €-gold exchange standard in progress ? Will UST gold be exchanged for euro reserves...in a later stage...at huge euro (and dollar)prices ? So the damage to the US (loss of $-reserve status) can be minimized as is in the global interest. Euro-gold is certainly not mobilized as to "support" the dollar's reserve status and keep the euro dwarfed...condemned to stay within its own borders. Euroland uses its own euro as a reserve next to the much more important gold reserves elevated to wealth-reserve status under a MTM regime.The dollar cannot control "all" the oil/gas on the entire planet !? Or can it ?Does anyone has any details about the IMF conditions for debt relief for the specific African states ? How much oil and gold is there mobilized ? Was that the real reason why SA miners could call a general strike and get most of what they asked for ... ASAP !? Was it Gordon Brown who subtly hinted that gold (and oil) shipments (mobilization) were OK for having the debt relief ? Keeping UST gold out of the way for later €-reserves transition.Is this the reason why the WAG restrictions on bullion supplies are starting to bite ...as more and more and more goldmetal is demanded ...at obscene low dollar exchange level !?What is more war going to change on this play !? Anyone. Goldilox (8/20/05; 08:31:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 135149) Missing Link http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie080205.html Sorry about that. Here's the link to the Jim WillieCB editorial. Goldilox (8/20/05; 07:37:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 135148) Jim Willie CB and Richebacher snip:Massive sea changes are quietly underway. We are entering a new phase whereby politics are soon to collide with the concentric financial spheres. (Oh, no, White Hills - who'da thunk it?) In the last few years, focus was on Europe over NATO, support for a US coalition in the Iraq War, the new EuroBond alternative to USTBonds, numerous trade conflicts, and broad calls for European reform. Now the focus has shifted to Asia. Watch the trade war with China. It is indescribably dangerous. Most Americans have no idea what is going on. They could not name more than three Chinese cities. I have not met a single person in my social conversations who is aware of the Senate tariff bill threatening overhead. Bear in mind that most of my conversations outside the office are not financial in nature. The conflict with China will be pervasive, as it covers trade, retail center shelves, job loss here, job growth overseas, lower wages here, lost fringe benefits here, intellectual property cheating, technology transfer, automobile industry destruction, competition for commodities, multi-national energy contracts, Russian military acquisitions, new Iranian alliance, and Treasury Bond support. What a lethally dangerous mix in the witch's cauldron!!! The last item points to implications to our housing industry and its gigantic bubble. I have talked to many many people who actually claim that the US housing sector has never suffered a bear market or decline, incredibly. Facts offered by me fall on deaf ears, from the reality of 1988 to 1992. Any talk about Bundestag or Krystalnacht goes right over their heads. Americans do not study history. We pull it off the shelf when needed and rewrite it to suit our needs, but not as egregiously as the Soviets did.Most Americans believe the USA has survived all previous threats and will survive all future threats. We are the champion of capitalism and free enterprise, yet most people cannot define either term nor notice the erosion across the spectrum. The USA exploited cheap Persian Gulf oil for two decades until 1973. We built an interstate highway system with a quasi-tariff tax. The USA took advantage of the Asian Meltdown in 1997. We embraced a cheaper supply chain. We reacted quickly to the US stock bust in 2000 with lowered interest rates. We bounced back from the World Trade Center attack with repairs and increased security. The Lower Manhattan transportation system has been upgraded in the process. We took charge with a counter-attack to isolate the violent risk in the Middle East and to secure oil supply in the process. The USA reacts and prevails, that is the consensus view. In many respects, the USA is truly a mighty responder. We are innovative and versatile. Many Americans base their economic and financial bullishness on our military superiority, without connecting the defense budgets and federal deficits to Asian sources for credit supply. That is taken for granted. Few notice how the empire is suffering from "imperial overreach" and crippling indebtedness. Few notice that with growing national debt comes unavoidable loss of sovereign control. Arrogance still runs high, with its associated high level of confidence. If ten reasons backed that confidence, the top three reasons can be traced to housing, from its general rise in household wealth, its equity extraction, its speculative gains. Military supremacy ranks high also. Signs point both to a flatter housing market from numerous indicators, but also to continued gains in certain metropolitan areas. It is interesting to watch those in charge of the Private Mortgage Risk Index assess Boston, Long Island New York, and Washington DC as each having over a 50% risk of declines in the coming 12 months. The housing heart of the bullish optimism is soon to be tested. The last GDP revision included a housing price component decline in the calculations.-GoldiloxIn a recent "Hat Trick Letter", Jim Willie CB shares an email exchange he had with Kurt Richebacher, wherein he lays out his economic risk factors. It's good reading. Goldilox (8/20/05; 07:13:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 135147) Read the fine print in unemployment reports! @ mas,We have become so disenchanted by "fine print" reports, that the BLS knows we never get past their glossy first page. In his Urbansurvival.com analyses of the employment reports, George Ure digs into the addendum numbers as well. The ones that are never spoken in the media are called "the under-utilized" and "ceased looking for work", simply because they no longer qualify for unemployment compensation or show up at the office to examine their paltry jobs lists. This number has remained steadily in the 12% range throughout the "jobless recovery". Adding them to the "official" 5% gets us very close to 1930's 20% numbers. By the way, if you're stretched for cash, and sell some of your possesions on ebay, you are now considered self-employed in the new paradigm - another way to exit the tally of unemployed!In addition, Wall Street moguls are back raking in their multi-million dollar bonuses, thus skewing the compensation figures to boot. A few dozen 8 figure bonuses goes a long way in bolstering a 2% compensation gain average. If they measured compensation gains with a median, it would show that the majority of workers have seen wages fall, especially against non-hedonically adjusted inflation.One last question, how many accounting bureaucrats are "employed" solely to create this illusion that unemployment is "low"?It's not in the least surprising that Wal-Mart saw 28 applicants for every job posted. It fits right in with yesterday's limerick:They "leveled the players" with NAFTA,And toasted Bacardi to CAFTA.But the pickings are leanIn this Job-jacked machine.Take any old job 'cause you HAFTA! mas (8/20/05; 03:36:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 135146) Is this really true? From the Privateer This is really a serious situation.In the Bay Area of San Francisco, the official unemployment rate was, at the latest June 2005 figure, 5.1%. This was up from the official 4.6% rate which had been recorded for May. Such an unemployment rate is reflective of a prosperous part of the world.Yet when Wal-Mart let it be known this week that they were looking for 400 people to staff their new store in the area, they had more than ELEVEN THOUSAND applicants. That's twenty-eight applicants for every job on offer.It is a well-known fact throughout the US that Wal-Mart does not offer high-paying jobs. Nor is there much in the way of "fringe benefits" attached to the jobs they offer. Indeed, Wal-Mart has long been the target of US unions for the paltry health benefits and low wages they offer.How prosperous can a nation actually be, how robust can the economic "growth" of a nation actually be, when more than eleven thousand people line up to apply for 400 of the lowest paying jobs available in that nation? And how is it possible that such a thing could happen in a suburb of a major city in that nation which claims an unemployment rate of 5.1%?The answers are, of course, simple. A situation in which eleven thousand people apply for 400 menial jobs is redolent, not merely of recession, but of actual DEPRESSION. It is a more eloquent indictment of the economic and financial policies of both government and banking system than any number of learned treatises on economics. It is also the slap in the face which reality always gives, sooner or later, to the official statistics by which governments seek to obscure the REAL state of the nation they govern. In such a situation, the claim that the unemployment rate is 5.1% is preposterous, and obviously preposterous. ge (8/20/05; 00:47:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 135145) Iran, Venezuela discuss oil embargo http://www.vermontguardian.com/dailies/0904/0819.shtml ? slingshot (8/20/05; 00:11:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 135144) Where do we go from here? Have you had enough?Baltic Dry Indexinterset ratesBond activityGM Ford junk StatusReal Estate\Fed DefTrade Def. M3 money supplyUnemploymentImmigrationmedicarePensionsInflationNafta Gatt CaftaB.R.I.C.Terrrorism OilGas Prices Real EstateARM's IraqIranSudanCharvezCastroFoxSharon Bush BlairGreenspanComexDerivitivesC.P.I.I will not be back till 451 when paper burns unless called.And the Ralley monkey will be with me!Slingshot--------------<> ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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