Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...
The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/20/2005 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) heavy mettle (2/20/05; 23:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 129491) Russell on gold http://www.dowtheoryletters.com Snippet:. . .Speaking of Alan Greenspan, I listened to the Congressman Ron Paul of Texas confronting Greenspan about inflation and gold at this week's Humphrey-Hawkins meeting. And Greenspan gave a most interesting answer, one that explains a lot about Greenspan's thinking and his rationale as he operates today in a world of fiat currencies. Greenspan said that the Fed is operating as though the dollar was still backed by gold. In other words, Greenspan was saying that the Fed, by managing the markets, was literally taking the place of gold. At that point it was clear that Greenspan did not want to delve further into the subject of the Fed and gold. The obvious question that Greenspan was avoiding was this -- If Fed "management" of the nation's money is so expert, even without the discipline of gold -- why has the purchasing power of the dollar been declining year after year, decade after decade? And, of course, that's the one subject that Greenspan doesn't want to touch. So the slow, systematic destruction of the dollar and the nation's savings goes on. Maybe that's the real reason why Americans save nothing today. And maybe it's the "hidden" reason why Americans are buying houses rather than (or as a substitute for) gold today. On another subject, a few days ago I read that Goldman Sachs had fired about thirty of their stock analysts. Then yesterday I heard that Smith Barney fired their entire technical group. What's going on? I believe this is the story -- the pros don't really need the advisory output of brokerage house firms. The pros have their own methods and resources. It's the retail public that brokerage house analysis is aimed at. And the retail public has left the market. The retail public is off somewhere buying houses. So, in the interest of cutting costs, the brokerage houses are unloading their research departments. . . .CONCLUSION -- When was the last time you saw the Dow up 30 points and there were 1297 advances and 2058 declines? Is the Fed adding spirits to the punch bowl or is the stock market drinking out of the punch bowl. Not much to be gained from analyzing today's action except that oil keeps creeping up, and the oil stocks like it -- a lot. Higher energy ahead (China and India competing with the US) seems to be a "no-brainer." But watch out for the obvious, as Joe Granville likes to say, "If it's obvious -- it's obviously wrong." . . .Adios -- Russell TownCrier (2/20/05; 23:25:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 129490) Gold eases as dollar firms, but bull trend stays http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1108957926nT218890&tit=UPDATE%201-Gold%20eases%20as%20dollar%20firms,%20but%20bull%20trend%20stays&type=internazionali&ling=EN TOKYO, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Spot gold edged down in Asia on Monday on light sales prompted by the dollar's slight gains against key currencies, but precious metals generally lacked clear direction ahead of a public holiday in the United States."Based on charts, the market is more likely to test gold upwards, but we need fresh incentives before doing that."Traders said active stop-loss buying could emerge should it decisively break through $428.The market is keen to test gold beyond $430, which is its 100-day moving average. Technically, the current bullishness is expected to continue unless the price drops below its 14-day moving average of about $420. "A break beyond $430 could trigger active short-covering to lift spot gold to higher levels at a fast speed," Suzuki said. Traders expect gold and other precious metals to be range-bound for the rest of the day, but prices could be exaggerated by market thinness amid an absence of U.S. players as markets will be closed on Monday for the President's Day holiday.^----(from url)----^Diversify and enjoy the restful kind of sleep that only peace-of-mind can bring.R. ski (2/20/05; 23:13:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 129489) What's up with silver? .... the price! I have enjoyed the recent contest here at the forum and was surprised at the number of individuals that frequent these halls. I have also been encouraged over the last year of the many posts that now summarize with the tag line ... buy gold AND SILVER.... or other such suggestion. In years past, the word "silver" would not have been included to any great extent. For the last few years, I have plainly stated that I expect the POS to exceed the POG in percentage terms. This proved accurate once again in 2004, but how is 2005 going so far?According to data in the February 18th issue of The Rude Awakening .... Year to date, gold stands at -2.3% while silver is up 7.9%.... for a total spread of 10.2%. You will get no argument out of me that a month-and-one-half does not make a year, but it is encouraging to see silver outperform once again... and for the forum readers to benefit from their choice. Goldilox (2/20/05; 21:07:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 129488) Gold dehedging continues http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=63206 snip:Dehedging in the fourth quarter of 2004 (Q4) maintained its elevated levels, touching 3,64-million oz, although it fell short of the totals recorded in the previous two quarters, the Global Gold Hedge Book Analysis reported this week.The analysis is a quarterly report which provides a timely and comprehensive analysis of the global producer hedge book and is produced by GFMS and Investec Bank.The report said that the 6% quarter-on-quarter cut in the global position left the delta-adjusted book at end-December at 57,13-million oz.The 14,3-million oz year-on-year decline represents the biggest annual reduction in outstanding producer positions since the de-hedging cycle began in 2000, the report said.-GoldiloxOngoing miner dehedging suggests that they expect POG to continue its rise and keep pressuring their hedge books. Goldilox (2/20/05; 20:58:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 129487) Mining firms urged to endorse beneficiation http://www.businessreport.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=2418092 snip:February 21, 2005By Lynda LoxtonCape Town - Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, the minerals and energy minister, is still keen on getting mining companies to boost the local beneficiation of raw minerals and metals, particularly into jewellery, but she does not expect them to commit financial suicide in the process.Speaking at a parliamentary media briefing on Friday, Mlambo-Ngcuka, who has been described as being "overzealous" on the issue of beneficiation, said that direct quotas on mine output that had to beneficiated locally would only be introduced incrementally and according to South Africa's capacity to actually beneficiate gold, platinum and diamonds.She admitted that mining firms had been rather ambivalent about attempts to get them involved in the increased beneficiation of minerals and metals, especially when some reports indicated that mines would be forced to make a certain percentage of their output available for local beneficiation or face export duties.Mlambo-Ngcuka explained: "We are asking them to make raw material available in South Africa instead of exporting it 100 percent."-GoldiloxSA gold miners being asked to keep some of their product at home - as an alternative to the currency battles of the rising rand and falling dollar? If they keep some gold at home they will have retained something of value when the smoke clears from the "currency wars".Perhaps if they attach "value" beyond jewelry, the movement will garner wider support. CoBra(too) (2/20/05; 19:18:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 129486) Interesting Comments today - Both on Hans Schicht's essay, which may be complemented by similar views by Bill Gross, Bill Buckler, Jim Puplava, Dan Denning and some others; ... And finally, also by the Maestro himself who was quoted to have said - "The broadly unanticipated behavior of the world (- meaning the US mainly)bond markets remains a conundrum". Well - it seems the bond markets listened for once ......As well as the wholesale firing of Bear Stearn's TA team speaks volumes. Even not knowing the reality of the latter incident, I'd like to speculate that TA has served a self-defeating instrument in highly mnanaged markets. A delusion concocted and abused by illusionists of high, though macabre calibre. The calibre of the power of a real printing press, or helicopter money as the probable next FED Chairman has already "coined" the going phrase. God beware US - and the rest of us - from big Ben B., as we're already in trouble with the old guy!Finally, it seems the TA marketeers have crept out again and feel we're now slightly overbought in PM's. So what? In due course we'll even be more overbought than ever before, as there won't be much else left to buy - except hard assets like PM's!cb2 Goldilox (2/20/05; 17:46:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 129485) Schicht article @ Ned,I found Schicht's article interestingly timed after listening to the gold rountable on FSN yesterday. It seems the gold analysts, who Sinclair blames for "calling tops" are now suggesting that the "gig is up" and we're off to the moon!They may be correct, but with all the false alarms we've seen in the last year, it's hard not to suspect more "wolf cries".Schict's article seems to latch onto GS' concern that the bond market is "not reacting as expected", from his Senate testimony. GS may be confounded by the "conundrum", but I wouldn't put it past the professional bond, gold, and currency traders to have more tricks up their sleeves.I guess it's all part of the "wall of worry" for bull markets. Goldilox (2/20/05; 17:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 129484) New Front on the War on Terror New Front on the War on Terror New Front on the War on Terror http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0220-02.htm snip:"In appointing Negroponte, a career diplomat, Bush has brought a new and, to many, unwelcome twist to the US war on terror. Coming on top of his statement that he would support Israel if it mounted an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, and following recent talk of enforcing regime change in Iran and Syria, it sends the signal that the US is entering a new phase in its operations against those countries suspected of sponsoring al-Qaeda and its allies. . . Not only does this make him the most powerful member of the Bush administration, but it also heightens fears the US could be returning to "dirty war" tactics which allowed CIA-trained operatives to pinpoint and neutralize known terrorist targets or obstructive political leaders."-Goldilox"obstructive political leaders" - is that foreign AND domestic?It also most likely renews the old Nixon/Reagan/Bush I policies of support for military juntas in resource-rich hotspots. Perhaps Rummy's visit to Latin America last fall was a fitting prelude to this policy evolution, as he spoke of greater cooperation in the area of "hemisphere security".Under Goss and Negroponte, the old "Plumbers" wing of the intelligence community is THRIVING, as we've seen with the outing of Valerie Plame a mass exodus of career "intelligence" officers.A little more political than normal for this forum, but the tie-in is US$ hegemony coersion. It should elicit some interesting new wrinkles to the battle for world reserve currency and even greater emphasis on gold as "wealth insurance".With deficits growing exponentially, and major market currency sabres rattling, the US dollar will have to rely as much as it can on "diplomatic support". Ned (2/20/05; 16:59:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 129483) Very strong article by Hans Schicht http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/schicht022005.html Can someone please explain the article to me in Grade 6 bond language please. Why is this man so convinced we are at the 'turning point'?TIA Gandalf the White (2/20/05; 14:00:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129482) Sir Usul's comments on SB ! Usul (2/20/05; 12:29:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 129480)SB laying off technicals teamGoldilox, Gandalf===Thanks, Sir Usul, that is INTERESTING !<;-) Cavan Man (2/20/05; 13:31:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129481) Chris Powell Good point but I think a transfer EAST of Western monetary patrimony is unlikely. A Yuan/Gold combination is the knockout blow a reserve currency incumbent would anticipate. However, the game is on for gold--right! Usul (2/20/05; 12:29:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 129480) SB laying off technicals team Goldilox, Gandalf,Did you notice recent stories about SB issuing reports favourable to precious metals investments, and negative on real estate and Information Technology?"The most important implication of the super cycle, states Citigroup Smith Barney, is higher long-term prices. The report's preferred commodities are bulks (iron ore, coking coal and alumina), two base metals in aluminium and zinc, and one precious metal, in gold."http://www.mineweb.net/sections/mining_finance/410070.htmHomebuilders Decline on Analyst Report "A Smith Barney Citigroup analyst on Friday cut his ratings on six homebuilders, expressing doubts that a recent sector-wide advance will support higher valuations while mortgage rates remain at historic lows"http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/feeds/ap/2005/02/11/ap1821831.html"Smith Barney's global strategist has downgraded the information technology sector..."http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050125.wsmithbarney/BNStory/Business/ Chris Powell (2/20/05; 11:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 129479) China is invited to relieve the West of the burden of its gold http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2859 Latest GATA dispatch.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (2/20/05; 10:28:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 129478) Newcomers, take advantage of this resource! http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Goldilox (2/20/05; 10:00:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 129477) SB laying off technicals team @ Gandalf,Unfortunately, it's not unlike Bush and Goss "laying off" the CIA career intelligence officers in favor of their loyalist "tricksters". "Don't bother gathering intelligence, we'll just tell you what the political fundamentals are." slingshot (2/20/05; 08:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 129476) da2g Msg#132 dated 11-12-01.Sound familiar?Slingshot--------<> da2g (2/20/05; 05:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129475) Great Albino Bat msg#: 129467 Well said! ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.