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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/20/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Waverider (03/20/03; 23:38:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 99987)
Solectron to cut 12,000 jobs
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B73DE9576%2D2061%2D43C2%2D80A1%2DD14BD542134D%7D&siteid=mktw
Snip:
"Electronics manufacturing services company Solectron on Thursday said it would shed 12,000 jobs and take $300 million in restructuring charges over the next several quarters as demand for telecom products continues to sag."

Waverider: 12,000 Solectron bones selected for the bone pile.

Zhisheng (03/20/03; 23:00:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 99986)
@Daniel Druff
Your antipathy to Murphy and company reminds me a bit of me during the Vietnam War years. An old friend of that time told me a quote I have never forgotten, though I do not recall its original source:

"To him that thinks the work is a comedy;
but to him that feels, �tis a tragedy."

To my mind the question is not whether Saddam should go, but rather should the US become the world's judge and peacekeeper (which really means whether this Republic of the United States should cease to be and be replaced by an Empire of the United States). I was present in the capital of a certain major power in 1989 when the Government of that country at that time murdered about 2000 of its citizens there: with tanks and chemical weapons (chlorine gas)---this is not hearsay but a fact. There never was a question of whether the US would try to right this wrong, nor would there be if it occurred tomorrow.

As has been often said in this forum, we are entering a period of shortage of cheap energy. The standard of living of all countries will be determined by to what fraction of that energy they will have access. As time advances, so will the severity of this problem. It may very well be that the rational course of US policy is to increase its access to such resources as it may, while it remains in its power to do so. But if the US is to travel an imperialistic course, its people should embark on that phase of its history with their eyes open, knowing what they are doing and why they are doing it.

It is precisely the economic implications of creation of an American Presence in the Middle East which renders the present war a fit topic of discussion on this forum.

21mabry (03/20/03; 21:40:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 99985)
(No Subject)
Can you just imagine being an 18 year old iraq soldier,no training, an ak47 if your lucky two clips of ammo, hardly any food or water,your in the desert in a little fox hole and here comes an american mechanized infantry division right at you, its like the oakland raiders playing a division 3 highschool football team.

Clink! (03/20/03; 20:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 99984)
The Best Enemy Money Can Buy
After hearing everyone talk about it here, I finally got hold of a copy of 'The Creature from Jekyll Island'. To put it mildly, it's quite an eye-opener. There is one section where he quotes the editor of the Council on Foreign Relation's monthly journal which is extremely topical (written in the 1998 edition) :-

'"Yes, it's tempting to get rid of Saddam. But his bad behavior actually serves America's purpose in the region... If Saddam Hussein did not exist, we would have to invent him..... Maintaining a long-term American presence in the gulf would be difficult in the absence of a regional threat"

'This is about as clear a statement of the Rothschild Formula (deliberate fomenting of war for banking profit) as one is apt to find. Yet, many people cannot believe it is real, even Congressmen. For example, Rep. James Traficant from Ohio, speaking before the House on April 29, 1997, exclaimed :
'"America gives billions to Russia. With American cash, Russia builds missiles. Russia then sells those missiles to China. And China...then sells those Russian-built missiles to Iran.
Now Iran, with those Russian-made missiles sold to them by China, threatens the Mideast. So Uncle Sam, who is concerned about Iran threatening the Mideast ...sends more troops and sends more dollars... Mr. Speaker, this is not foreign policy. This is foreign stupidity"

'Traficant is on target with his analysis of the problem, but he missed the bull's eye regarding the cause. american leaders are *not* stupid. They merely are implementing the Rothschild Formula. To justify world government, it is necessary to have wars and the threat of wars. Wars require enemies with frightful weapons. Saddam Hussein is one of the best enemies money can buy.'

That says it all really.

Clink!

PS. To anyone else out there who hasn't read 'The Creature', I think you ought to too !!

Daniel Druff (03/20/03; 19:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 99983)
Bill Murphy
Has anyone told Bill and his buddies that Sadam murders his citizens? He wipes out entire families...these citizens are tax payers, no? So we're supposed to just look the other way, kinda like the gold cartel looking the other way when millions of Africans die, year by year.

Bill...stick to gold, please. You're beginning to make me sick!

Thank you

Belgian (3/20/03; 17:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99982)
@ PH in LA
We Westerners, have a difficult time, understanding what exactly a Free Physical Goldmarket, means. Many individuals in the East just see Physical Gold in Possession and in trade, in a very natural way as it should be. During 20 years of papergold rule...we lost our natural goldreflexes and worshipped the financial paper calves. Give this Free Gold the time it needs Sir. Good things don't come easy (smile).

Present heavy / heavier, turbulences on the geopolitical front, have a strong incubating effect for drastic changes on a multitude of things.
On many of Euroland's 28 TV channels...the nearby future is already in full-serious, discussion. But at present, Central Banks must remain ready to intervene (support) heavely to unwind the maniacal bubbles, orderly. This is a setback for the execution of laid plans. But postponed doesn't mean lost,... on the contrary. The Arabian Oilreserves will make their choice of the "real" liberator.
As many other people will make another choice as to wich reserve currency is the most appropiate. Such a change is a complicated and a rather slow process, especially at its start. The present events might accelerate the choices at given points of no return. Eternal struggles ! Real life !

In the aftermath of the ME-crisis, many *fundamental* differences between Euro-block and the dollar-block will surface much more clearly. Yep, today we face very challenging problems . But Euroland deals differently with these problems. We will see how it evolves. I'm optimistic on the final outcome.

Bedtime for us. Goodnight Sir.

TownCrier (3/20/03; 16:29:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 99981)
HEADLINE: Treasury Seizes Iraqi Assets in U.S.
http://finance.lycos.com/home/news/story.asp?symbols=&story=32505933
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Bush administration is seizing $1.74 billion in Iraqi assets already frozen in the United States, saying it will use the money for humanitarian purposes in Iraq.

President Bush signed an executive order on Thursday directing the Treasury Department to take the action.

Treasury officials believed it marked the second time since World War II that the government confiscated financial assets.

The $1.74 billion will be transferred to an account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The assets are being held in bank accounts under the names of the Government of Iraq, the Central Bank of Iraq, Rafidain Bank, Rasheed Bank and the State Organization for Marketing Oil.

----------(see url for full article)--------

Whatever form these assets may have actually been, they will all be dollars now when they emerge.

Bottom line: if it isn't in your hands, in times of crisis what you may get is not necessarily the same as what you think you now have. A word to the wise -- a concept that stands behind the evolving euro-driven (free gold) reserve paradigm.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/20/03; 16:01:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99980)
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TownCrier (3/20/03; 16:00:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 99979)
Tevye
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/SwissHelv.html
I've notified Jonathan of your interest, so you should be hearing from him shortly if he isn't too over his head in snow.

Beautiful coins. I've certainly bought my fair share over the years, too.

R.

CoBra(too) (3/20/03; 15:49:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 99978)
@ Operative
Sir, I've been thinking along those lines for a while. I could not come to grips with the sudden change of stated WAT goals, fighting Al Queada et al to shift to War on Iraq.

Coincidentally, Bill Murphys Midas of today is following up on a similar topic. Also in the appendix there is a well written essay by an Australian, Geoffrey Heard touching brilliantly on the same topic.

... And you're correct, this is another strong reason to own gold - as I've been unshakenly convinced for years now. Some of the old-timers here will also remember that I've been known to stray from the trail off and on, to spend some (for fun?) and pick up some more (even with pick and shovel), along the way. Well, who wants to play the pack mule all the time ... ;>) - cb2

Tevye (3/20/03; 15:26:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 99977)
TownCrier: getting a bonus when the price is nice
Randy, funny you should mention "getting a bonus when the price is nice". My company just paid a small bonus to us today. Route me an email on the price of Swiss 20fr and I'll call tomorrow, wife willing.

Gold. It's Tradition

misetich (3/20/03; 15:09:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 99976)
TEXT-S&P issues report on North American auto sales
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2003/03/20/rtr913869.html
Snip:

The slow sales pace has caused dealer inventory levels to spike above historical averages, and several vehicle manufacturers have indicated that they will reduce production during the second quarter of 2003, which will negatively affect the financial performance of auto suppliers.

"Especially vulnerable are suppliers with high fixed costs or heavy customer concentrations among the Big Three automakers, whose sales have softened more than average and, thus, currently have a greater oversupply of inventory in the market," said credit analyst Martin King. "The remainder of 2003 is expected to be very challenging for most auto suppliers. Slower sales will pressure profit margins and could lead to intensified pricing pressures as vehicle makers, struggling with their own profit issues, look for price cuts and ways to reduce content on certain vehicles."
*************
Misetich

Auto and parts manufacturers employ a huge number of individuals - layoffs are just around the corner.

A prolonged Iraq resistance will creat havoc for the US economy

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Operative (3/20/03; 15:02:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 99975)
Access Oil Trading Higher.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CLD3
One of the networks showed a satellite Pic of burning oil fields. Oil prices climbing up in after hours trading.
Gold due for a turn around shortly I would think.

misetich (3/20/03; 14:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 99974)
UPDATE 1-US govt posts $96.33 bln budget deficit in Feb
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=5FJOIH4NS2GGECRBAELCFEY?type=bondsNews&storyID=2418611
Snip:

WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. government saw a budget shortfall of $96.33 billion in February, the Treasury said on Thursday, adding to an expected record annual deficit even before the costs of the war with Iraq are tallied.

.........
The gap was the largest monthly shortfall on record, according to Treasury.

.........
Aside from war costs, also looming on the fiscal horizon is the issue of the government debt ceiling. On Wednesday, a Treasury official said the government could run out of room to avoid piercing the Congressionally-set $6.400 trillion debt ceiling in April.

The budget situation has deteriorated sharply after posting four straight years of surpluses around the turn of the century. That trend turned into a $157.79 billion gap in 2002.
**********
Misetich

The Iraq's invasion - provides a cover for the financial woes of the US

The US $ is overvalued - by at least 30 to 50%- In time most bubble bursts -

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Operative (3/20/03; 14:44:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 99973)
@ CoBra (too)
Great Link you supplied. Tells the story behind "the story" rather well. If there ever was a single reason, just one, to acquire physical gold, and hang onto it, your link provides the justification in my opinion. While the great powers of this world wrestle with thier monopoly monies, this hobbit increases his stash of the real deal.

TownCrier (3/20/03; 14:22:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 99972)
Gold: Demand Up, Prices Down
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=30514
Mumbai, March 20: �Demand for gold has shot up in India even as the US-led attack on Iraq on Thursday partially removed the built-in war premium that led to lower prices.

...Around $25 was priced in as war premium in gold prices. With the commencement of the war, a part of this premium was seen evaporating.

..."There's plenty of demand for gold," said Bombay Bullion Association president Suresh Hundia. The daily all-India demand would be around 1.5-2 tonne, Mr Hundia said.

Bullion analyst Bhargava Vaidya said, "there was good offtake because people had waited far too long to buy gold."

According to ICICI Bank's Mr Narandra Gupta, "Investors and traders, who had sold their gold to cash their holdings at recent high prices and had not bought gold to replenish the same, have all returned to buy gold."

--------(article at url)------

It is like getting a bonus when the price is nice for something you need to buy. In this market there are no rainchecks; good only while supplies are available at any given price.

R.

TownCrier (3/20/03; 14:12:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 99971)
Cost of war and peace
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2418550
Excerpts:

WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) -
...Conservative calculations of the cost of the war for the United States, which assume a swift campaign along the lines of the 1991 Gulf War, are about $100 billion, equivalent to 1 percent of U.S. economic output. No one knows the costs for sure because, as a New York Times editorial put it on Thursday, the Bush "administration remains about as transparent as a Stealth bomber in specifying the likely price."

Nor will the costs end when hostilities cease.

The Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think tank, estimates that the price of rebuilding Iraq after the war will run $20 billion a year for "several years" -- a cost expected to be borne mostly by the United States.

------------------

Where the fate of a currency makes for dubious savings over time, a diversification into gold may be a saver's best means to preserve wealth. Call the brokers at Centennial to discuss a strategy that is right for you.

R.

Waverider (3/20/03; 13:45:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99970)
***VIP*** DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Snip:
"The price of gold will likely continue to trade in a volatile market depending on how current events play out depending if there is much Iraqi resistance and how much devastation occurs in the oil fields. Once the uncertainty of war, damage to the Iraqi oil fields, and possible terrorist acts are removed from the equation we will see the precious metals markets focus once again on the deteriorating economy, rising debt, and the overvalued U.S. dollar."

Goldilox (3/20/03; 13:37:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 99969)
The War cost keeps going up, up up!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2867619.stm
Israel's Finance Ministry said the package consisted of $1bn (�640,000m) in direct military aid and $9bn in loan guarantees.

The 30-month-long Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation and the global economic slowdown have plunged the country into its third year of recession.

Israel - the biggest recipient of US aid worldwide - initially asked for $4bn (�2.5bn) in military aid and $8bn in loan guarantees.

The US will deduct from the loan guarantees any Israeli expenditure on settlement activities in Palestinian areas.

The package, which is part of President George W Bush's war budget, still needs approval by the US Congress.

CoBra(too) (3/20/03; 13:34:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 99968)
Seems I'm not alone in voicing these thougts -
http://www.evworld.com/databases/storybuilder.cfm?storyid=490
Although, I've been thinking along the lines of the rift in EU Nations into the coalition of the "Willing" and the definetly "Unwilling".
Any political rift as serious as we now see, of course means a blow to the fledgeling Euro.
CB2

Eleanor of Aquitaine (3/20/03; 13:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 99967)
Gold Dinar
http://www.ummahnews.com/viewarticle.php?sid=927
...snip..."Malaysia will start using the Islamic gold dinar starting mid 2003 in its foreign trade section with some countries replacing the U.S. dollar in a first step move toward unifying the currency used in commercial dealings between Islamic countries.

The success of this idea, according to several western newspapers, may lead to minimizing the U.S. dollar hegemony as an intermediate tool in commercial dealings in the world."...

read the article for more...
Eleanor

PH in LA (3/20/03; 12:57:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 99966)
Gold Standard
Belgian:

Actually, esteemed Belgian, your "Freegold" concept leaves the banking/governing industry less power than a true pegged-to-gold currency would. A free-floating physical only market system would mean that the currency printers would be left with an automatic yardstick (the floating POG) that could not be disguised.

On the other hand, the gold peg in a gold standard could always be adjusted as need be (ie whenever the danger existed of running out of gold). Of course, this would gradually put more and more gold into the hands of the citizenry, which would eventually take the power to "set" the value of the currency out of the hands of government/bankers. I guess this is the lose-lose problem that makes you say the idea of a gold standard is a non-starter.

As far as the small amount of gold in existence being a problem, this is just not so. Another used to say that gold would have to be valued at $32,000 per ounce to allow a gold standard to function with all the existing currency existing at that time. Since then, even more fiat has been invented, implying an even higher price.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/20/03; 12:29:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 99965)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

"For as long as cannons have thundered,
they have echoed
with the sound of men yearning for gold."

-- R. Strauss

Daniel Druff (3/20/03; 12:27:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 99964)
Russia, circa 1998 comes to mind
The Start of Something Wonderful (?)
TownCrier (3/20/03; 12:08:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 99961)
Russia to shift away from old policy, now less beneficial to dollar

The fiat will always run to tangible assets at the last minute. This is really turning out to be a classic finale.

Thank you

TownCrier (3/20/03; 12:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 99963)
Eleanor of Aquitaine: "What if we return to the gold standard?"
http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html
This may be of use to you, but be forewarned that it is a very long and in-depth treatment -- much more than a casual bit of reading. The material at the link above captured the first significant dialog forumers had on this specific issue. The introductory remarks from this special archive are as follows:

"This discussion took place beginning February of 2000. It was joined by many fine-thinking individuals who touched upon several important and unique aspects of the interrelation of gold and the monetary system. We hope you gain new perspectives from this convenient collection of this most remarkable discussion."

You may find here much more than you bargained for. Enjoy!

R.

sector (3/20/03; 12:19:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 99962)
The World is not Happy
http://www.islamonline.net
Angry Rallies Sweep World As War Breaks Out

200,000 Greek protesters rally in front of the U.S. Embassy, right, in Athens

ATHENS, March 20 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) - With U.S. and British diplomatic missions under water-tight security guard, anti-war protests swept across the globe Thursday, March 20, protesting the unleashing of the U.S.-led war of aggression against Iraq, with hundreds of thousands expected to march to demand a quick end to air strikes on Iraq.

TownCrier (3/20/03; 12:08:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 99961)
Russia to shift away from old policy, now less beneficial to dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030320/russia_economy_3.html
MOSCOW, March 20 (Reuters) -
...Booming exports of oil have flooded the Russian economy with dollars and boosted the value of the rouble. In order to slow its rise, the central bank has bought up dollars by printing roubles, sparking fears inflation might take off.

[...however...]

The central bank last month shifted away from trying to contain the rouble's rise and is now gearing monetary policy more towards keeping inflation in check.

Inflation last year fell to 15.1 percent, ahead of a 14 percent official target.

But the central bank signalled on Thursday that it is prepared to draw on currency reserves, which hit an all-time high of $54.7 billion on March 14, to smooth any volatility in the rouble.

...The central bank has said it wants to keep real appreciation of the rouble to less than six percent in 2003 against a combined euro and dollar currency basket.

--------(see url for full text)------

Rather than buying up dollars as in past, Russia now prepared to draw on its record high currency reserves. One step closer to a leveling of the playing field.

Diversify with gold against the day the dollar inevitably loses its overvaluation from the fading legacy of its unique reserve status.

R.

Belgian (3/20/03; 12:00:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 99960)
@ Eleanor of Aquitaine
We will "never" see another goldstandard. A FREE PHYSICAL GOLDMARKET is the only solution left. No compromise is possible on this straithforward concept,... as old as the early days of Gold itself.

The aktual degree of "interventionism" is in itself, evidence for the incapacity of today's, modern, monetary system. Maniacal interventions as to prolonge the (dollar) system's life at any cost and by any means.

The world is on the dollar-standard and the dollar, itself, is a lost cause. The dollar and debt can only survive in a constant, exponentional, expanding modus. The kind and momentum of the engineered "expansion" that is taking place at present, is absurd.

This fundamental picture is entombed under ever more thick layers of misleading artefacts. The show must go on whilst the real motives for all actions remain Perfectly covered.

Old habits die hard.

Daniel Druff (3/20/03; 11:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 99959)
Eleanor of Aquitaine
@ What if we returned to the gold standard
When we think about it, we can come to the conclusion that the gold standard is just one magnificent step away from barter.

Unlike the gold standard, the fiat credit system is designed to destroy itself...as the end approaches just print the money and buy the gold. In-the-know participants remain intact financially...beautiful scam.

Gold, to work properly imo, should not have a price in terms of Dollars, Yen, etc. All goods and services should be priced in terms of gold-weight. A classic example with an up-to-date application would be the price of a Brooks Brothers three piece suit...one ounce of gold. ANOTHER would be a Big Mac and fries for the family (super sized, of course)...a few grams.

It's the credit angle where the problems will develop. Why not let the government run the various credit scams using fiat which will lead to occasional crashes and the continued need for charts, economic comentary, lawyers, and jails. When the scoundrels blow up the system they will not destroy the prudent gold investor/saver/horder.

Gold, silver, and precious stones...where did I read that?

Thank you

White Rose (3/20/03; 11:10:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 99958)
Ground war starts, Debka report
IST (Israel time) 17:50 Two oil fields south and west of Basra have been torched by Iraq troops. US Marines ordered to advance from Kuwait into southern Iraq at speed to extinguish the blaze. Battles rage as Marines lay down artillery barrage to clear their path while coming under heavy fire themselves

Allied aerial bombardment of Baghdad just resumed. All US units in Kuwaiti bases told to be ready to roll in full combat mode by 16:30

TownCrier (3/20/03; 10:18:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 99957)
U.S. Federal Reserve provides fresh money -- $7.5 billion
In open market operations today the Fed trading desk in NY added $5 billion to banking system reserves through 28-day repurchase agreements, $2.5 billion through overnight RPs. The market in fed funds was trading at the FOMC target of 1.25%.

Black Blade (3/20/03; 09:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 99956)
Oil Fields on Fire and Saddam Wounded?

News reports are saying that up to four oil fields near Basra are on fire and one is where mile long slicks occurred where the pipelines were opened.

Another report says that Saddam may have been wounded in last nights raid and several of his top dogs were killed.

US troops are ordered to be "combat ready" by 11 am EST according to CNBC.

The stock market likes this report apparently as the DOW climbed from -100 to -10 in short order. Gold is getting volatile (up and down and up and down, etc.).

- Black Blade

Black Blade (3/20/03; 08:54:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 99955)
NatGas Storage Hits All Time Record Low - Oil Fields in Basra on Fire!
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html

Snippit:

Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 636 Bcf as of Friday, March 14, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 85 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 1,000 Bcf less than last year at this time and 646 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,282 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 413 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 64 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 223 Bcf below the 5-year average of 420 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 14 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 9 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 7 Bcf. At 636 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.

Black Blade: Also just coming over the wire � Oil wells are burning in Basra and US troops are told to be combat ready by 11:00 am (EST) � that's two hours from now. It appears that the sabotage of the oil fields has begun. On the NatGas storage report � it appears that "base gas" is being drawn out at least one or more storage facilities. The situation is in crisis now and with low rig counts we are certain to be looking at a serious energy crisis this coming winter. Scratch any plans for economic recovery.

Buongiorno! (3/20/03; 08:38:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 99954)
Eleanor of Aquitane--Gold Standard--99953
An excellent question--now where to begin? Gold alone would not be enough to cover even a fractional reserve system. (Ten per Cent actual gold backing, the rest on faith!) So, would you consider a bi-metallic, fractional reserve system? It may be our only chance.

If we dust off the records of our friends, Great Britan had such a system but it ended in the mid-thirties. The previous hundred years was very stable from a price and inflation standpoint. (A loaf of bread or other standard measure was about the same over that entire period.)

Why bi-metallic? Because after so many years of printing press and computer magic--there is just not enough physical gold to cover the demands of modern commerce. Throw in silver, we still would not have near enough at even double today's prices. Tri-metallic anyone? (smile)

The politicians will harrumph and stomp and give a million reasons for not bringing back this "barbarous relic", but they do wield enormous power by running the printing press and flogging their computer magic--and would not wish to give it up.

I have jumped into this question, not from any thoughts of expertise, but your good question begs an answer. I thought to provide enough liquid to prime the pump--but not much more. I hope to entice some of the really smart people here--for I feel we have the resources to not only answer your question, but perhaps find a solution to the problem you have posed. However, the macro-math of paper currencies out there versus the number of ounces of metal available to cover an honest-money standard--is beyond me. (Help, anyone?)

Besides, whacking away at such a problem gives us a chance to win at what we do. (Why else to play, except to win?) Grinnn! And it helps to mute the cackling and cawing and flapping from the fowl down in the castle yard. Pressure from the situation overseas has everyone a little edgy--some more than others. Perhaps a little more focus upon things which we can really do to improve our lives and our security? (I can almost hear the comforting jingle of gold and silver coins, as another CARE package from MK wings its way to my mailbox--talk about global security!)

I humbly hope to shed a small ray of light upon your very good question. (Next time, perhaps we cover Gresham's Law and economic devolution into a 'de facto' gold and silver standard?)
BUONGIORNO!

Eleanor of Aquitaine (3/20/03; 07:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 99953)
What if we return to the gold standard?
What would be the implications should the US return to the gold standard? Would gold's price be kept below $500? How would such a thing affect our economy and the other problems we're looking at right now? Please comment. Thanks.

The Invisible Hand (3/20/03; 07:39:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 99952)
Oil price stability
I just quoted the governing council of the ECB:
In times of severe tension, it is of the utmost importance that policymakers do not lose sight of their_ primary responsibility_, so as to reduce uncertainty and strengthen confidence. The ECB will therefore continue to evaluate thoroughly the course of events in light of its _mandate_. Ongoing developments will be monitored very carefully

Thinking aloud - I suppose primary responsibility has to be interpreted in light of the ECB's mandate which is price-stability. How can increased price-stability lead to reduced uncertainty and strengthened confidence? Is the POO's fall in dollars perhaps the final nail in the dollar as oil currency's coffin? Can the transition occur now?

rare gold (3/20/03; 07:33:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99951)
Sorry for the dupe
I thought I hit the send button only once. Sorry for the inconvience.

rare gold (3/20/03; 07:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 99950)
Reflections on Reality
OPERATION: IRAQI FREEDOM
Baghdad welcomes 'moment of liberation'
Reporter in capital says newly emboldened people eager for war

Posted: March 20, 2003
1:00 a.m. Eastern

� 2003 WorldNetDaily.com
Many newly emboldened Iraqis are revealing to the few reporters left in Baghdad that they see America's military action as their moment of liberation.

"Many, many Iraqis are telling us now � not always in the whispers we only heard in the past, but now in quite candid conversations � that they are waiting for America to come and bring them liberty," said New York Times reporter John Burns in an interview from Baghdad on the PBS News Hour last night.

"Along with all of this apprehension," said Burns, "Americans should know that there also is a good deal of anticipation. Iraqis have suffered beyond, I think, the common understanding in the United States from the repression of the past 30 years."

PBS's Gwen Ifill asked Burns to clarify: "They are actually eagerly anticipating war?"

"It's very hard for anybody to understand this," he said. "It can only be understood in terms of the depth of repression here."

Burns said that, of course, there are people who don't want war out of loyalty to the regime, or out of fear or out of "suspicion of America's motives." Because of the closed nature of Iraqi society, we cannot know how numerous either side is, he said.

"All I can tell you � and every reporter who is here will attest this � is that the most extraordinary experience of the last few days has been a sudden breaking of the ice here," said Burns, "with people from every corner of life coming forward to tell us that they understand what America is about in this."

Burns said the people naturally are fearful of errant bombing, damage to Iraq's infrastructure and what kind of government might come after Saddam is gone.
"Can I just say," Burns stated, after Ifill tried to interrupt, "there is absolutely no doubt, no doubt, that there are many, many Iraqis who see what is about to happen here as their moment of liberation."

The Invisible Hand (3/20/03; 07:22:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 99948)
Knallgold
http://www.ecb.int
ECB PRESS RELEASE
Statement of the Governing Council following the start of military action in Iraq
20 March 2003

Military action in Iraq has started. The Governing Council has again discussed the economic situation in light of the tense geopolitical environment. It stands ready to act if necessary. Financial markets can rely on the provision of sufficient liquidity even under exceptional circumstances, as was demonstrated in the past.

The impact of this military confrontation on the global economy can vary significantly in scope and size, depending on the extent and duration of the conflict. It is therefore not possible at this juncture to conclusively assess the short and medium-term implications for the euro area.

In times of severe tension, it is of the utmost importance that policymakers do not lose sight of their primary responsibility, so as to reduce uncertainty and strengthen confidence. The ECB will therefore continue to evaluate thoroughly the course of events in light of its mandate. Ongoing developments will be monitored very carefully.

mas (3/20/03; 06:47:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 99947)
Diversion
Well what happened to the debt ceiling, 6.4 trillion. Everybody looking the other way???? What a scam. Now what? Are they going to raise the ceiling or not? How much is this costing and WHO is paying for this? (Every cruise costs what 1 million each and 40 where shot last night?) Or are we just supposed to watch the blubber on TV. Every channel has got all watching the wrong way. Somebody needs to ask the real questions, what happened to the debt ceiling?
Who's paying for this? You/me?
I guess they just don't care, were at war so to hell with the rest..... SO?
What a diversion/ploy. Show me the money, and I mean real money!

Knallgold (3/20/03; 06:21:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 99946)
ECB
14:07 - EZB wird um 15.00 Uhr Stellungnahme zum Irakkrieg abgeben (Kreise)
FRANKFURT (AWP/dpa-AFX) - Die Europ�ische Zentralbank (EZB) wird offenbar um 15.00 Uhr eine Stellungnahme zum Irakkonflikt abgeben. Dies erfuhr die Nachrichtenagentur AFX am Donnerstag aus EZB-Kreisen. /FX/js/jh/fp

(ECB to give a statement on the Iraq war-what could that be?)

Black Blade (3/20/03; 05:05:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 99945)
Don't Expect the "Relief Rally" to Last
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/mar2003/nf20030320_2398_db014.htm

The economy's underlying weakness, tepid earnings, and continued geopolitical risk mean stocks' pre-war upsurge is probably temporary

Snippit:

The stock market has been on a tear in recent days. On Mar. 17, the day leading up to President Bush's ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, the Dow Jones industrial average posted its biggest gain in five months, rallying 282.21 points, or 3.6%. The day after the speech, the Dow rose again, ending up more than half a percentage point (0.64%) higher. And on Mar. 19, the party continued, with the Dow and S&P up again. All told, in just one week the Dow has risen 9.4%, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, 8.7%, and the Nasdaq, 9.2%.

The bad news is that the upsurge -- known on Wall Street as a "relief rally" -- isn't likely to last. True, uncertainty over Iraq has finally been lifted, and investors are betting the war will be quick and effective. The same thing happened at the start of previous wars. When the U.S. went after Iraq in January, 1991, during the first Gulf War, the S&P rallied almost 20% by the time a cease-fire was announced some three months later. Once this Iraq crisis is past, though, investors will still be confronted with a lackluster economy and tepid corporate earnings. "It's tough for the market to sustain an upward move when earnings estimates are continually being revised lower," says John Caldwell, chief equity strategist for McDonald Financial Group in Cleveland.

Black Blade: Of course the POG has not fallen very hard suggesting that claims of a "war premium" over hanging gold was grossly overblown. Going forward the focus will be on the weak economy and overvalued US dollar.

Black Blade (3/20/03; 04:05:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 99944)
War and Gold (so far)

This morning three Iraqi missiles have hit northern Kuwait and one was intercepted by the US Army's Patriot II missile defense system. I guess a 25% success rate isn't "too awful bad". Earlier US war planes and Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired on a residence in Iraq where CIA determined Saddam to be hiding out. Apparently he used up one of his nine lives and escaped unharmed. Also, there are reports that some oil wells are on fire near Basra (not confirmed). There is an "Operation Valiant" consisting of 1,000 members of the US 82nd Airborne sweeping through three villages in southern Afghanistan in an attempt to capture or kill al Qaeda suspects reported to be in the region. They apparently captured documents in English and Arabic relating to al Qaeda finances.

Gold has been moderately volatile hitting above and below the NY close yesterday. Several analysts are covering their tracks and reversing their early bearish prognostications as the so-called "war premium" appears to have been grossly over stated. If anything, the "war premium" has been blown off in previous weeks. Oil on the other hand has fallen sharply and as a result the DOE has stated that there now is no need to release SPR oil. OPEC members are planning to meet and withdraw plans to eliminate quotas due to the sharply falling oil prices.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black Blade (3/20/03; 02:55:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 99943)
US and Japan to protect markets
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2863051.stm

Snippit:

Just days ahead of a war, the US and Japan are prepared to co-operate to support the financial markets if there is a crisis. A deal was struck last week in the US between a former Japanese finance minister and the head of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve's Alan Greenspan. "There was an agreement between Japan and the US to take action co-operatively in foreign exchange, stocks and other markets if the markets face a crisis," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said.

Black Blade: Why am I not surprised.

Zhisheng (3/20/03; 00:57:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 99942)
The Reverse of the Golden Coin
@Mikal(#99939), Waverider(#99935),21Mabry(#99941)
Mikal states: "Gold like woman, is soft and malleable, yet firm or flowing, depending on the circumstances."

Yes, but as the Taoists aver, nothing exists without its dual. The reverse side of the golden coin appears quite vividly in many of Robert Service's wonderful poems of the Alaskan and Yukon gold rush written a century ago. From THE BALLAD OF GUM-BOOT BEN:

"The Nordenscold for the love of gold I piked from morn till night;
Afar and near for many a year I led the wild stampede,
Until I guessed that all my quest was vanity and greed."

And from THE TRAIL OF NINETY-EIGHT:

"Never was seen such an army, pitiful, futile, unfit;
Never was seen such a spirit, manifold courage and grit.
Never has been such a cohort under one banner unrolled
As surged to the ragged-edged Arctic, urged by the arch-tempter---Gold."

Along similar lines, 21Mabry's representation of the place of women in the North American Tribes recalls Kipling:

"When the early Jesuit fathers preached to Hurons and Choctaws,
They prayed to be delivered from the vengeance of the squaws.
'Twas the women, not the warriors, turned those stark enthusiasts pale.
For the female of the species is more deadly than the male."

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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