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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

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The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/20/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

TEX (02/20/02; 23:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 70506)
****$289.80****
Beats me, just looks like a good number.

Black Blade (02/20/02; 23:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70505)
Enron Built Fake Nerve Center
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020221/business_enron_sting_dc_1.html

Snippit:

HOUSTON (Reuters) - It wasn't only the accounting that was creative at Enron Corp. To hawk a new venture to Wall Street at a 1998 conference, the company built a make believe command center and ordered employees to act like they were cutting deals months before it was operational, a former executive said on Wednesday.

According to the executive, Enron staffed the then-inactive nerve center with employees, ordered to act like they were working as two top executives emceed an intricately choreographed show put on for financial analysts in 1998.

Black Blade: Sounds like the typical Wall Street boiler room to me - say like JPMC or Goldman Sachs?

Maiden Fan (02/20/02; 23:26:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70504)
*****293.90*****
Gold has been wacked down over the past couple of days and we've also had a PPT rally in the stock market to make everyone happy. The trend has been for this kind of thing to only last for a couple of days though. So I would expect to see the stock market drift lower and gold to drift higher in the next couple days.

Brett Woods (02/20/02; 22:51:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70503)
****297.0****

My guess is for $297.0 because I expect POG may rise due to tidal effects of the Moon before the federales begin the next assault on $288; an attempt which, of course, will ultimately be doomed due to momentus back pressure from the cosmic unconscious.

miner49er (02/20/02; 22:39:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70502)
USAGOLD @ 70474; re: Hall of Fame
You know, Mike, I used to play the trumpet when I was a kid. I used to practice in a sparsely furnished, big room with wooden floors. I used to drive my mother crazy.

It is certainly with humble gratitude that I receive this most coveted honor, that of having one's thoughts and words immortalized in this esteemed Hall. Thank you to those who so graciously nominated this post, especially Mr. Gresham, who took quite an effort in elaborating upon it. Yes Sir, I do enjoy composing them. I hope others enjoy reading them more than I enjoy writing them, else it becomes like one who laughs at his own jokes in the midst of embarrassed colleagues...

Sir Belgian - thank you good Sir, for your encouraging comments. It is always the greatest pleasure to know something one has labored over is of benefit to someone else. Such the essence of giving...

Cavan Man - in my estimation, no one energizes the Celtic essence like Yeats. English retellings of these tales usually render as quaint and wooden. WBY imbues them with the wistful hues of the Celtic Twilight he so timelessly captured. Another favorite from this genre is "Fergus and the Druid."

A couple extracts to leave off with:

Druid. What would you, king of the proud Red Branch kings?

Fergus. A king and proud! and that is my despair.
I feast amid my people on the hill,
And pace the woods, and drive my chariot-wheels
In the white border of the murmuring sea;
And still I feel the crown upon my head.

...and ...

Fergus. A king is but a foolish labourer
Who wastes his blood to be another's dream.

Again, thank you.

miner49er

Gandalf the White (02/20/02; 22:10:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70501)
COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
OK Goldfly -- LET SPIKE Loose !!!

PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$8,752.0**** The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT msg#: 70296
****$5,126.0**** R Powell (02/18/02; 13:19:28MT msg#: 70320

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281

****$320.4**** Rock (02/18/02; 16:33:35MT msg#: 70328

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$320.0**** Henri (02/20/02; 16:58:42MT msg#: 70482
****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$314.0**** nickel62 (2/19/02; 08:47:16MT msg#: 70377

****$313.5**** KTC (02/17/02; 22:25:55MT msg#: 70288)

****$313.4**** pdeep (02/18/02; 16:25:02MT msg#: 70326

****$313.0**** DOWNUNDER (02/20/02; 18:43:09MT msg#: 70487

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143

****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282

****$304.5**** Joepmbull (02/18/02; 11:39:21MT msg#: 70318
****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$298.0**** Goldilocks 1 (2/20/02; 08:11:44MT msg#: 70450
****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$297.4**** auric (02/18/02; 22:11:08MT msg#: 70360
****$297.3**** Richman (02/20/02; 13:09:30MT msg#: 70466

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$296.4**** Au-some (2/19/02; 07:22:18MT msg#: 70373

****$295.6**** coco (02/18/02; 16:29:13MT msg#: 70327

****$295.0****.Beowulf (2/19/02; 15:47:47MT msg#: 70413

****$294.8**** The Victorian (02/20/02; 20:56:17MT msg#: 70496

****$294.5**** turkey hunter (02/18/02; 15:05:26MT msg#: 70322

****$293.6**** sourdough (02/20/02; 11:05:24MT msg#: 70462

****$293.3**** jlfletc (02/20/02; 12:14:44MT msg#: 70463

****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.5**** Black Blade (02/20/02; 20:07:46MT msg#: 70493
****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460

****$291.5**** Max Rabbitz (2/19/02; 21:24:30MT msg#: 70430

****$291.0**** Humble Pie (02/20/02; 14:35:45MT msg#: 70469
****$290.9**** kludge (02/18/02; 13:15:21MT msg#: 70319

****$290.5**** mikal (02/20/02; 22:03:35MT msg#: 70499)
****$290.4**** John Doe (02/17/02; 23:06:16MT msg#: 70289

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$289.4**** Wky_Woodsman (2/20/02; 01:08:19MT msg#: 70435

****$288.8**** ausome (2/19/02; 12:02:49MT msg#: 70390

****$286.8**** Paten (02/20/02; 16:58:35MT msg#: 70481

****$284.0**** OpalBill (02/18/02; 18:58:30MT msg#: 70335

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
###########################
THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
===
<;-)

John Doe (02/20/02; 22:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 70500)
Gold retrace
How many times have we seen these announcements, sometimes official and sometimes rumor, supposedly justifying the day's negative price effect on the metals complex, only to be retracted within days? Everyone seems to believe that the Bundesbank "announcement" caused the POG to falter yesterday. Again, I would like to suggest an alternate theory, i.e., that these events are window dressing for public consumption, merely intended to provide cover for repricing Au in order to purposely attenuate gold's building momentum. The absurd news items are not causes, but smokescreens, and unfortunately are to be expected, even anticipated. Remember, the metals-pricing markets are run, by and large, by and for insiders, including central banks and their governments. They have many goals to achieve and impressions to impart in their daily activities. Sometimes the means to these ends are technically legal and subjectively admirable, and at other times they are neither.

mikal (02/20/02; 22:03:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70499)
*****$290.50***** Price Guessing Contest
Producer buybacks, Arab, French, Mexican, Canadian, American, Japanese, Russian, Indian, and Chinese official and private demand (world demand), and short covering should put a floor at nearby resistance of $289-$290. Mass media silence and giveaway prices signal buy more, much more. POG is like a shackled bull being fed too much food, steroids, and enticements. For example, media censorship, disinformation, and distraction evolves into the latest flamboyant metamorphasis: wild, undocumented stories like GERMAN gold about-face, and Japanese demand DOA and RIP (dead on arrival and rest in peace). Shortly after the last BOE auction, the desperation of impending capitulation will be increasingly futile. #####$290.50#####

Grubstaker (02/20/02; 21:24:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 70498)
WELCOME BLACK BLADE...COME ON IN...

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460

I see this situation as a buying opportunity..."ALL ABOARD.....THE GOLD TRAIN IS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STATION"...

pdeep (02/20/02; 21:16:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 70497)
Gold, Interest rates, and the housing market
I warched the recent C-span webcast on GATA, and it struck me how critical it is at this juncture to keep gold from flashing higher interest rates in the future. While gold-shorts have an obvious stake in the supression of the price, no one, I believe, has a bigger stake than the Fed. Today the WSJ pointed out how the GSE's, FannieMae and Freddie Mac, have $2.6 trillion in mortgage debt outstanding, at a 60:1 debt:asset ratio. Since housing prices (assets) are set at the margin, much like equity prices, it makes sense that with low interest rates, a lot of buyers come into the market bidding prices up for everyone. Not to mention the "money creation" as home owners tap into that asset via home equity loans. Any spike in long-term rates would dry up the pool of buyers, so that if housing prices fell, the hit taken by asset prices would likely drive that ratio much higher, and it would effectively end home equity loans. So between the hit to the GSE's and the hit on new debt/money creation, the results would be catastrophi. Nice to know that the GSE's don't have to file financial statements with the SEC, and that we have no idea of the counterparty risk of their $760 billion in swaps since they do not have to declare the counterparties.

The Victorian (02/20/02; 20:56:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70496)
gold price guess
*******294.8*******
I think as much bad news and harmful rumours as possible have been dredged up to hold down the price of gold, for the time being. I see no reason for further downward momentum, neither is there any great reason for gold to rebound. I believe there will be little movement until the next crisis of confidence in the stock market, or the next global incident propels it upward again.

Black Blade (02/20/02; 20:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 70495)
Metals - Gold slips back as US accounting worries, Japanese buying subside
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_524949.html?menu=business.latestheadlines

Snippit:

Gold remained under pressure in late trade as worries about accounting practices in the US and Japanese buying receded, dealers said. Japanese investors failed to buy gold despite a sharp fall in the Nikkei index overnight, they added.

"The Japanese haven't been buying (gold), and there's been some profit taking," Kamal Naqvi at Macquarie Bank said. He said the recent rally in gold buying, fuelled by the Japanese buying and accountancy concerns in the US equity markets, is subsiding as both factors fade out.

Black Blade: This can't help that the Japanese are not buying as much as they have been over the last few days. However, as April 1st (April Fools Day) approaches, we could see Japanese buying pick up again. As far as US accounting scandals are concerned two new investigations are under way - Global Crossing and Computer Associates, and soon maybe Qwest will be tagged.

Black Blade (02/20/02; 20:25:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70494)
If Germany shuns gold others may follow
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/02/20/rtr518918.html

Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The German Bundesbank's painful defection from the ranks of gold allies may persuade other bullion-laden central banks to dump some of the holdings once prized as a bulwark again financial and political meltdown.

"It is the loss of one of the major supporters of gold as a central bank reserve," he told Reuters. "Now it's only seen as a matter of time for the French and U.S. to follow."

Black Blade: That's all right though. Liberate captive Gold from the hands of the Reichs Bank, er... . Bundesbank, to the hands of freedom loving peoples. Maybe Welteke wants to unload all those teeth .... er I mean Gold ingots to relieve his conscience. When the people have the Gold and not the CBs, then the people will rule their own lives as soveriegn beings.

Black Blade (02/20/02; 20:07:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 70493)
****$292.50****
Price Guess - $292.50. Why, because the POG could not hold solidly above $300.00/oz. Afetr the POG rallies we hear the stories come out. First there is the Gold-terrorist-Al Qaeda connection. Now we hear idiot dim bulbs like Welteke making decisions that he prohibited from making. He is not only bound by the WA agreement, but also is only one vote on the Bundesbank board. We will likely see more assaults on Gold by detractors in a pitiful effort to constrain the POG. For the next few days the POG may be held in check. I sure hope that I am "low-balling" it.

Black Blade (02/20/02; 19:59:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 70492)
Sons Of Gwalia Gives Poor Prognosis For Gold
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020220/15/2ip0i.html

Snippit:

PERTH (Dow Jones)--Sons of Gwalia Ltd. (A.SGW) Managing Director Mark Cutifani attributed lower-than-forecast gold grades for the second half of 2001-02 to an unforeseen scheduling issue but said the company remains confident that demand for tantalum is rebounding, despite a recent slump in spot prices.

Black Blade: No surprise here as Sons of Gwalia is a massive hedger and if the POG rises they stand to go tits up. This is probably wishful hoping on their part.

R Powell (02/20/02; 19:48:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70490)
2002 Gold Survey
http://www.cpmgroup.com/store.htm
Became available as of 2/19/02 (yesterday). I didn't see anything about the 2002 Silver Survey yet.
Rich

Black Blade (02/20/02; 19:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 70489)
Buba plans no big gold sales, sticks to accord
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?cat=USMARKET&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news&news_id=reu-l20419422-u1&date=20020220&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

Snippit:

FRANKFURT, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Bundesbank on Wednesday said it had no immediate plans to sell large amounts of gold and would stick to a 1999 accord curbing central bank disposals, but made no promises beyond the life of the deal which ends in 2004. "We are still abiding by the central bank gold agreement of 1999. We have no plans for the immediate future to sell large amounts of gold," a Bundesbank spokesman told Reuters.

He was reacting to remarks by Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke in an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday, in which Welteke said: "I could imagine that we slowly sell some of this gold and reinvest the revenue in assets that pay an interest." The Bundesbank, with 3,500 tonnes in its reserves, is the world's second largest official holder of bullion after the United states and the remark hit bullion hard, shaving $4.0 from the spot price which fell to $293 per ounce.

Black Blade: This dim bulb (Welteke) now says - sorry, I was just kidding. The Bundesbank better hold onto the Gold. I suspect that the Euro will be a failure. How 12 different nations with different political agendas and cultures can possibly remain united by a common currency and monetary policy is beyond me. Already there are cracks in the system with Italy and Greece barely able to maintain fiscal discipline. I give it a couple of years before some countries bow out. Those countries then may want Gold as their reserve currency.

sector (02/20/02; 19:31:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 70488)
Insurance Losses [Enron, et al] Coming
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3QQXRLXXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC

Leading insurer warns of threat from Enron fall-out
By Adrian Michaels in Hamilton, Bermuda
Published: February 20 2002 20:52 | Last Updated: February 20 2002 21:44

A senior executive from AIG, the world's largest insurer, on Wednesday warned that the insurance industry was facing a disastrous run of claims over policies covering shareholder lawsuit liabilities in the wake of the Enron scandal.

Thomas Tizzio, senior vice-chairman at AIG, said the financial fall-out from the energy trader's collapse and other high-profile failures such as the recent bankruptcy filing of retailer K-Mart, were a "wake-up" call for the insurance industry.

Insurers write "directors and officers" policies for companies that are triggered when shareholders file lawsuits after financial shocks. As well as covering awards, insurers usually have to pay legal fees. These account for the lion's share of their liabilities, even if the companies eventually defeat the suits.

Mr Tizzio, commenting on the severe market jitters over corporate accounting in recent weeks, said insurers needed to understand the companies they covered and the risks to which they were committing themselves.

More than 50 lawsuits have been filed against Enron's directors and executives, seeking compensation and alleging that shareholders were not given an accurate financial picture of the company.

Mr Tizzio implied that insurers had not charged enough for D&O premiums in general. "The focus in 2002 will be on D&O in corporate America," he said. "This year could ultimately see a catastrophic loss in that sector."

DOWNUNDER (02/20/02; 18:43:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 70487)
PRICING GUESS - - - -
My guess for the price contest is **** $313****. Having been manipulated down there's a major chance that it will rebound back --well past the other side of $300.

I'm a holder NOT a trader -- and my shares (all gold)have doubled o/all in the past 6 mths (although down around 12% because of current dip).I also hold physical in gold & silver. I'm of the opinion that UP is the only way for gold & silver --although it aint easy going into the troughs especially when fully invested.

Thanks to all contributers to this site. Your analysis of unfolding events is of great value & has helped this lurker to hold fast during some very bad times !

sourdough (02/20/02; 17:54:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70486)
Good read on U.S. housing boom/prices
February 21, 2002
US home prices carry on defying gravity

Which is disturbing in what is a recessionary economy - because the boom could herald a bust a year after the stock market's peak, like in Japan

By
Robert Samuelson

(WASHINGTON) One surprising aspect of this surprising US economy is housing. About 18 months ago, neighbours of mine sold their home for about 25 per cent more than I thought - in my wildest imagination - it was worth.

At the time, I congratulated them. They had sold, I suggested, exactly at the peak of the real-estate market. Wrong again. A few weeks ago, another house a few blocks away went for about 20 per cent more than I thought - in my wildest imagination - it was worth.

Housing, it seems, is the last bull market. It's not just my neighbourhood. The National Association of Realtors reports that in 2001, the median price of existing homes rose 6.2 per cent to US$148,000. In Nassau and Suffolk counties outside New York City, the gain was 23.2 per cent to US$269,900. In the Minneapolis-St Paul area, the jump was 22.3 per cent to US$172,800. In Los Angeles, the increase was 12.6 per cent to US$254,300. All this boosts the faltering American and world economies.

To anyone with a sense of history, the home boom must be a source of wonder. Housing usually leads the economy into recession. Mortgage rates rise, then construction and home sales fall. Not this time. In 2001, new-home construction totalled 1.603 million units, up 2.2 per cent from 2000. Existing home sales set a record of 5.25 million.

Americans are, well, being American. They're exercising their faith in the future. If they don't own a home, they want one. The home ownership rate - the share of households not renting - is now a historic high of 68 per cent; in 1990, it was 64 per cent. Those who already own want to 'trade up'. Since 1987, the size of the median new home has grown 17 per cent to 2,059 square feet.

'We've seen housing perform a heroic role in fighting off recession,' says economist Todd Buchholz, author of a report on housing from the Homeownership Alliance. It's more than construction. Home buyers, says Buchholz, spend up to US$9,000 on extras: sofas, lawn mowers, televisions, garden furniture.

Buoyant home prices have also fortified national morale by neutralising some of the gloom from growing unemployment and a falling stock market.

There's been a Wal-Mart effect: the middle class has benefited the most, because its wealth is most concentrated in housing. By contrast, the wealthy are more invested in stocks. From year-end 1999 until last September, household stock wealth - mutual funds and directly owned shares - lost about US$4.4 trillion in value, dropping to US$8 trillion. Almost half the loss was offset by higher home values, up US$2 trillion to nearly US$12 trillion over the same period.

The explanation of why, this time, housing defied the business cycle lies mainly in interest rates. In January 2000, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 8.2 per cent. A year later, they were 7 per cent - which is where (generally speaking) they've stayed. People rushed to buy. Lower rates also prompted massive refinancings of existing mortgages. Housing has also profited from the efforts by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the nation's largest mortgage lenders - to expand homeownership among blacks, Hispanics, immigrants and low-income families.

Since the mid-1990s, downpayment requirements and credit standards have been eased. Homeownership rates have increased from about 42 per cent for blacks and Hispanics in 1995 to almost 49 per cent last year. (For whites, the gain was from 71 per cent to 74 per cent.) Great. But inconvenient questions arise. Is housing's bull market genuine? Or is it another 'bubble'?

One sceptic is economist Ian Morris of HSBC Securities. Housing's boom, he says, partly reflects the stock market's bust. Disenchanted investors shift funds into homes, which seem safer. In a weaker economy, lenders also prefer home loans to business loans; so mortgage rates drop. Easier credit and strong buying then boost home prices - too fast.

'We've witnessed this process elsewhere in the world,' says Morris. 'The stock market will peak before the property market.' In Japan, the stock market 'peaked in December 1989, and the real-estate market kept rising for another 12 months'. Morris calculates that all homes are now worth about 1.6 times Americans' disposable personal income - a ratio virtually identical to the record in 1989.

For five years after that, modest gains in home prices lagged behind inflation. 'The current rate of price increases is unsustainable,' he says. 'The best we can hope for is a soft landing of prices.'

Mortgage delinquencies are also rising. In September, 4.87 per cent of loans were 30 days or more overdue - the highest level since 1991.

The hints here are that housing's next surprise might be unpleasant. But the hints are, as yet, nowhere evident in my neighbourhood. Just last week, a home down the block went on the market. A few days later, there was already an 'under contract' sign out front. And when I learn the price, it will no doubt seem shockingly high. - The Washington Post Writers Group

Canuck (02/20/02; 17:52:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70485)
@BB
$333.3 is still open amigo but I remind you that I have 'reserved' this bid.

There seems to be a 'massing' near 292, is this co-incidental?

Canuck.

R Powell (02/20/02; 17:42:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 70484)
The Lone Sparrow
Interesting story. Did you, at any time during your stay in New Mexico, while housesitting, get a chance to talk to that lone sparrow? He didn't happen to call himself Ted Butler?
Rich

Leigh (02/20/02; 17:12:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 70483)
Bullrider
Beautiful essay!!

Henri (02/20/02; 16:58:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 70482)
Contest RE-entry
*****$320.0*****

OK Pizz, You pushed me to it.

I wish to use my reasoning from my previous entry with the exception that $320.0 is now the target and that it will close without exceeding that level.

Paten (02/20/02; 16:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70481)
POG Contest
****286.8****
The sub-masters of the universe have pushed the price of gold down again. But their foundation is rotten and this hold up. If I were a Japanese with a savings account, I would be buying gold right now even though Bush Jr. is over there attempting to bolster support for their economy.

Canuck (02/20/02; 16:24:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70480)
@ Jon @ All
There's a very factual comment over at G-E (18:09) regarding Enron.

We have had the media back off from this Enron thing in the last week to two but this story is a reminder of the human puke involved in todays crooked markets.

Everytime the Enron thing fades I feel it important that we 'stir' it back up to the surface.

Canuck (02/20/02; 16:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 70479)
Well, well
it seems that the German C.B. has retracted yesterday's aggressive gold-selling statement.

Can we please have our 7 dollars tacked back onto the POG?

Canuck (02/20/02; 16:02:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 70478)
@ Jon
Confusion reigns my good man. If one was to read 10 analyst's viewpoints 10 opinions would be had, ranging from big bull to big bear and everything in between. In every market, its difficult to take a position because one is so baffled.

I have watched the price of gasoline in Ottawa in the last 4 months. It flips and flops from 48 cents to 61 cents almost twice a week. That's a whopper 25% swing.

Gold races to 307 and back to 293, will it race back?

The volatility in frightening, something has to give and I hope very soon.

Bullrider (02/20/02; 15:56:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 70477)
Investing in Gold/Silver: For the Birds?
Following is an essay I wrote recently for the good folks at Bill Murphy's website, LeMetropoleCafe.com. Although they never published it, I did post it the other night on another gold forum and it was very well received. Since many of you no doubt have not seen it yet, I'm posting it here, as well. As I am new to this forum, I'll simply ask your forbearance with me for the length of the essay, but I trust most of you will find it worth the read.

Thanks,

Bullrider

Through a circuitous turn of events, I was asked several weeks ago by some acquaintances of a friend of mine in my city of residence, San Antonio, Texas, if I would be willing to come out to New Mexico for a month or so and "housesit" their rock-and-log-cabin home in the mountains just east of Santa Fe. Since I recently left a small business I started some 7 years ago and have not proceeded on to the next "career," -- whatever that turns out to be! -- I agreed to do it. The cabin, originally built around 1940 as a blacksmith shop, is situated on about 100 acres in the middle of the piney woods which are so common throughout this beautiful region, and one of the pleasures of this little adventure, which began around January 20th, has been to enjoy the non-stop activity of the area's abundant wildlife.

Before the couple left the day I arrived, the woman asked me if I would try to keep their three birdfeeders full of seed, especially since there's still a lot of snow on the ground and it's pretty cold here in the mountains. Though I've never been much of a birdwatcher, the request seemed important to her and I told her I would make the effort to keep the feeders stocked. Although the three feeders, which hang in the trees only about 20 feet from the cabin's front door, were full the day the couple left, it only took two or three days for the local avian (and squirrel) populations to empty them. I've since filled them several more times, as I've now been here for about three weeks.

Today, however, after filling the emptied feeders once again, I came back inside the cabin, sat on the floor just inside the two French-style doors at the entrance and decided to simply observe. Native peoples have for centuries known that man can learn a great deal by observing the animal kingdom, so I waited to see how long it would take the local bird populace to once again commence flocking around the presently deserted feeder area. Keep in mind that, for several days now (a span of time which must seem an eternity to a bird!) this particular area -- and I emphasize this point -- has held no value from the birds' perspective, despite the fact it has repeatedly shown itself to be of extremely high value at fairly regular, though not precisely predictable, intervals.

Although several birds were in the vicinity of the feeders after I filled them, none seemed to bother checking it out. Since the feeders had "lost" their value days ago, the birds mistakenly concluded that the situation was static and had nothing further to offer. No doubt they viewed the last filling as an "aberration" never to be repeated. Again, the feeders had been empty and un-inviting for days -- even a dodo could deduce that they were now a useless relic of the past! "The feeders? Don't be silly! No one who knows anything about profitable food-gathering goes there anymore!"

After a few minutes, I noticed one, lone sparrow make its way to one of the branches protruding about nine or ten inches from the three feeders, all of which were now chock-full of fresh birdseed. I naturally assumed the bird would jump immediately onto one of the vessels like a duck on a June bug (yes, ducks really do jump on June bugs!) but, to my amazement, the sparrow just sat there on the branch, nervously looking around and surveying the situation.

I wondered, as the little sparrow evaluated the feeder status, what might be going through its mind. Normally, when the feeders contain food, the entire area is a cacophony of chirping, fluttering, pecking and squawking as birds of many feathers and sizes jostle and fight for position on the feeders and on the ground below, where lie the spilled riches of the swinging containers' bounty. It's possible, I guess, that this particular "early bird" was so dumbfounded at having happened upon the mother lode -- without the usual accompanying pandemonium -- that it simply couldn't believe its incredible good fortune. Or perhaps it was looking around guiltily, as a man might do who has just hit upon a treasure box while digging for a buried water main. It's also possible, I suppose, the little fellow was just instinctively obeying the always-obligatory pecking order, which, at this particular auspicious moment, was happily moot. A more likely explanation, of course, was the simple, requisite checking for predators; after all, one can't be too careful when situated near the lower end of the food chain, a fact sadly reconfirmed recently by non-management Enron employees.

Now into the fifth paragraph of this cyber version of Animal Planet, the reader is no doubt mentally exclaiming (and rightfully so), "OK, Dr. Doolittle: what does all this have to do with the gold and silver situation!?" To which I would courteously reply, "Plenty." Please bear with me, then, while I continue my story. After a minute of so of pondering, the solitary sparrow apparently decided that, merely because no other birds were currently appreciating the value of the feeding area was not a good reason to pass up the opportunity to do so himself. In other words, the sparrow could readily grasp that the number of creatures presently seizing the opportunity was no reflection of its actual value. Thus did that first sparrow bravely prove himself (or herself -- hey, Marlin Perkins I ain't!) to be a true natural contrarian, not waiting for the crowd to confirm the choice before deciding to act.

To continue this riveting account of nature's own economy lesson, our fine, feathered friend quickly began making his instinctive noises and gestures indicating to his comrades that substantial food had been located. It wasn't long before a few more sparrows came fluttering in to check out the situation for themselves. Again, most of the newcomers were cautious about their initial approach, but the great majority of them decided the opportunity was too good to pass by and they, too, began descending on the new-found bonanza. The sparrows moved quickly and nervously, devouring as much seed as possible in as little time as possible, for they seemed to understand clearly what would happen next. In a very short time, realizing the newly established trend, the "big boys" would be arriving. And, sure enough, minutes after hearing of the feeding area's renewed "value," the much larger and more powerful blue jays arrived. Soon after, the still-larger and equally aggressive black birds entered the market, along with a couple of gray squirrels, now busily packing away the easiest of the pickings: the interspersed sunflower seeds.

By now the sparrows, far more nimble but much smaller and less powerful than the other players, were being harrassed and muscled out of the scene by the larger animals, who are far better equipped to compete at the food-gathering game. The sparrows who arrived earliest to the party were, of course, the ones who "profited" most, for they could never be denied that which they managed to acquire before the bullies arrived. Were the smaller animals provided by nature with some means of storing their initial acquisitions, they would no doubt have been able to command an extremely high premium for their holdings at some future point -- especially if the ensuing winter proved unusually harsh.

For a while, the cackling commotion was a textbook lesson in gluttonous greed, with each participating member of the animal "community" mindlessly consuming as much of the available, but limited, commodity as possible. As far as I could ascertain, with my limited knowledge of "animal-speak," at no time during the hoarding frenzy did any of the creatures feel that the now-universally-coveted feed lacked "inherent value" or stood as a mere "barbarous relic." On the contrary: the worth of the precious commodity, along with the participants' behavior, seemed to speak for itself.

At this point, I hope it is safe to assume the astute reader has seen through this thinly veiled analogy of our animal brothers' wilderness activities and connected it with the present-day circumstances of the world's fiat-money-based financial system and the opportunity that lies begging to be seized in the precious metals markets. The opportunity itself seems obvious. But homo sapien is a strange bird, indeed, and many, it seems, would prefer to scavenge with the vultures, hunting for near-lifeless NASDAQ corpses or paralyzed, earnings-depleted DOW dogs than to soar in the flight to safety with the gold and silver eagles of the coming precious metals migration northward.

When capital takes flight, it usually does so in large flocks, and the last ones to the watering hole will either pay a dear price for a drink or find the resevoir is dry once they arrive. Following the pecking order and waiting to see what the "commercials" do can be instructive at times, but the strategy is almost always an expensive one. In the wild kingdom of financial markets, by the time a trend is so obvious that even a blind bat can spot it, it's probably too late to jump in. At any rate, it will be far more expensive than it would have been before the notion became popular. The early bird catches the trend, and, when investing, it is far better to be a year early than a month late!

We find ourselves at a crossroads of financial history. Companies previously envied by the corporate world are now extinct or, at best, on the endangered species list. Trillions of investor dollars have been wiped out. As evidenced by fiat-finance geniuses who run Argentina, we now know it is possible for entire countries to go bankrupt, almost without warning. Nearly every currency on the planet struggles to find shelter in the storm, and nearly every major world economy is engulfed in "recession." The smart birds will quickly feather their nests with gold and silver equities of unhedged producers. This requires owl-like wisdom, since the Wall Street clucks are still squawking about their once-stellar tech picks or their stodgy, old fallbacks of yesteryear.

But soon, the "pros," many of whom evidently cannot see the forrest for the trees, may be caught napping as the stock prices of a select group of precious metals mining companies will begin rising above the clouds, whose gold and silver linings will then be so obvious that even an Andersen auditor could not overlook them. And the "wise," old birds on Wall Street, along with millions of previously sleeping-hen investors around the world, will suddenly be asking, "What's all the flap about!!??" By then, of course, those of us "sparrows" who arrived early at the "feeder" will be perched high above the ensuing investor cockfight, crowing about our previously acquired resource stock holdings, for which we paid mere bird feed in the months and years prior to the Great Migration.

So take courage and beat the flocks to the feeder, and don't make the mistake of assuming that because you don't find it crowded when you arrive that you must be in the wrong place. Remember, no one wanted oil a few years ago at $10 per barrel. "It's worth less than bottled water!" they exclaimed. Little did most investors suspect that fewer than 24 months later, the price of crude would triple. Today we find gold and silver occupying that same lowly assessment among most investors. "Metals pay no dividends!" they shout. But were gold to perform similarly to oil, the price would soar to more than $750 per ounce -- or nearly as much as bottled water. Even long-suffering silver, "the poor man's gold", would be selling for at least $12 to $15 per ounce, and possibly much, much more.

We can only imagine where such explosive price movements of the metals themselves would send the stock prices of the unhedged companies which produce them. Naturally, no one can say for sure exactly when this historic shift in sentiment will occur, but it sure feels like it will be sooner rather than later. One thing is certain: it will happen. These days, even a birdbrain can see it coming...

TownCrier (02/20/02; 15:54:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 70476)
Hello Jon and Voyager
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l
If we allow ourselves to step away from the mountain far enough to get a general lay of the land, this is what we see. (click link)

January 2000 looks like a watershed point, and on this side of that divide market players are treading on unfamiliar turf. Anybody would be hard pressed to make a valid call where the DOW will go in the medium term ((how many years is that???)), and my primary point on top of that is that the day-to-day ups and downs within the medium term trend are completely unpredictable and inexplicable. A guy might tear his hair out (or give himself an ulcer or heart attack) trying to "day trade" this thing...or even trying to make sense of it. (In a similar sense, we might ask why does a flock of birds or a school of fish zig and zag exactly as they are seen to do?)

Therefore, my recommedation to friends is to make your money the reliable, old fashioned way (through honest, productive effort) and then use those gains to provide meaningful security for a commensurately improved lifestyle.

R.

silvercollector (02/20/02; 15:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 70475)
Gandalf the White
Yes I see that I have been 'sandwiched', making my winning bid all the more worthy!

USAGOLD (02/20/02; 15:42:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 70474)
Congratulations Miner 49er. . . .Well Deserved!
Randy, send for the castle maintenance crew and have them bring plenty of oil. Oh my. . . .These doors are heavy. When's the last time we were in here? I've forgotten just how wonderful this Hall really is. So elegantly designed. Marie, what did we we do with that Gold Carpet?? It's got to be around here somewhere. Well. . . .Let's roll it out. . . . . . . . . We have a new entry to give its Place of Honor. How about over there, Randy?. . . .Near Aristotle's series. ...What a day. What a day, I tell you!! It's not every day we have a Hall entry. Randy, is there some way we can have them stop with those infernal trumpets and fanfare everytime we open this door??? My ears. I can only take so much of that sort of thing, as you know. And everytime something happens here. . .there's the trumpets!. . . . . . .Who's idea was it to have trumpeters anyway?. . . . .. . .. . ....Perhaps we can meet at the Table with the rest of the Knights and Ladies and discuss that. Can't we get StradMaster to play something soft and mellow on his violin?. . . . .I love the violin. So subtle. . . . . Understated. . . .Bach. . .yes, Let's make it Bach. . . .Just a thought.

(Scene fades. . . . .)

Miner 49er walks the Gold Carpet to place his post in the Hall of Fame to the sound of. . . . . trumpets.

Well, you can't everything, 'Niner.

TownCrier (02/20/02; 15:26:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 70473)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html
To act prudently and efficiently requires knowledge and preparation. Equip yourself with information. Visit the link above.

Voyager (02/20/02; 15:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 70472)
JON
I am as frustrated as you. Perhaps we need to be kept "in our place".

JPM hit a low of 28.39. Closed up .39 at 29.41. I guess 196 points on the Dow is what it takes to hold JPM up.

TownCrier (02/20/02; 15:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 70471)
I'm pleased to see miner49er getting the attention merited by his comments
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Maestro.html
This past holiday weekend I had already secured his permission (be private e-mail) to use this commentary in a future one of my 'Golden Chalkboards', and I am more than happy to see it now being recognized by others at the Forum as worthy of the Hall of Fame, too.

For those who are arriving late to the "Miner Appreciation Society", you can read another recent fine piece of his insight at the URL above.

R.

Jon (02/20/02; 14:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 70470)
Market UP gold DOWN
With all the comments about "Enronitis", misrepresented earnings, and the like, I can't help but wonder how these posters rationalize Dow up almost 200 today and gold down to 291. I most certainly don't understand. Does anyone? If so, FACTS please.

Humble Pie (02/20/02; 14:35:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70469)
Gold Price picking contest
******$291.00****** The cabal still has the deck and will not give it up untill the last BOE sale.

Mr Gresham (02/20/02; 14:13:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70468)
Sir sitesteward (if it be ye?): Three Seconds for HOF Nomination!
miner49er (02/16/02; 18:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70211)

The post has received the necessary three seconds for consideration of inclusion into the Hall of Fame. It _has_ been a long time, Sir Gandalf! But the doors do not appear to be rusted shut ;)

Sir Cavan Man #70448
Sir Gandalf the White #70456
Lady Waverider (how sweet to so write that name!) #70467

Waverider (02/20/02; 13:33:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 70467)
Third Second: Hall of Fame Nomination for Sir Miner49er #70211
My pleasure!

Richman (02/20/02; 13:09:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 70466)
contest guess
I believe we'll stay in this range thru maybe next week.....then it could be Katie Bar the Door.

****297.30****

Richman

uponroof (02/20/02; 12:48:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70465)
EPIDEMIC........."Unfortunately, the entire cart is rotten."
http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1002,33%257E407694,00.html?search=filter
"The sum total of S&P 500 companies are not generating cash. They are bleeding it," he said.

Company executives and Wall Street analysts have urged investors to focus on operating earnings, which are easier to manipulate, instead of net income - the profits shareholders actually claim, contends economist David Levy, chairman of the Levy Forecasting Center in New York.

His center's research estimates that companies in the S&P 500 have systematically overstated profits by at least 20 percent a year during the past decade and by 10 percent and more since 1982.

"The tendency is to view Enron in isolation as a seedy example - a bad apple," said Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Levy center. "Unfortunately, the entire cart is rotten."

snip>

"If enough investors realize the magnitude of profit overstatement and the erosive effect of investment costs on their bottom line, broad stock market returns for the next 10 years would likely wind up deeply in the red," he said.
********

btw-Russell is now saying the Dow and Gold will crossover at $3000.

sector (02/20/02; 12:35:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 70464)
Computer Associates and FBI Accounting Fraud Probe
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT39JOMAXXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC

CA shares fall on reports of FBI accounting probe
By Paul Abrahams in San Francisco and Joshua Chaffin in New York Published:
February 20 2002 14:58 | Last Updated: February 20 2002 18:42

Shares of Computer Associates tumbled 18 per cent by midday on Wednesday after media reports that the fourth-largest US software group was being investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and US attorney's office for possible accounting fraud.
The move, reported in Newsday, a local New York newspaper, and the New York Times, is the latest in a series of investigations by authorities into alleged accounting irregularities, following the collapse of Enron, the energy trading group. Concerns that revenues and profits may have been overstated have proved a drag on the market in recent weeks.
The probe, reportedly in its initial stages, will look into whether the company properly separated software revenues from fees from services. It follows comments by a former CA employee who was contacted by the US attorney's office several weeks ago, according to the newspaper.
+++++++++++++++++++++

There are many, many more such FBI accounting fraud investigations on tap...maybe even at IBM and GE.

But not to worry! The DOW will stay elevated even as all its components fall.

jlfletc (02/20/02; 12:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 70463)
Contest guess
****$293.30*****
I think POG will recover slightly by week end, but I think the past couple of days show the ferocity of the Paper Pushers and their agenda.

sourdough (02/20/02; 11:05:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70462)
contest
********$293.60*******
World Governments manipulating supply to ensure continued Japanese buying while price hides the "plan" from other potential investors. Windfall profits will be used to kick start consumer led Japanese recovery.

Gandalf the White (02/20/02; 11:00:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 70461)
CONGRATULATIONS Sir Silvercollector !!
You have become the "FIRST BRACKETED" prognosticator !!
****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460
---
<;-)

Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 70460)
Contest
***** 291.8 *****

Because I'm a novice at predicting gold spot prices and
this is what the spot price was setting at earlier today.
Sorry, I can't be more scientific than this.

--Novice Bear

Leigh (02/20/02; 10:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 70459)
G$
You just described our entire family's morning! I crept slowly and carefully downstairs to the computer room to check on you guys, and you're all doing great, so back to bed for me.

I can emphathize (sort of) with the stock market today!

Gandalf the White (02/20/02; 10:45:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 70458)
The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
ONLY about 25 Hours to PLACE your "Bet" on the CONTEST !!
UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
----
UNAVAILABLE ( because of prior claim ) ENTRY !!

****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Please enter again, Sir Henri !!

G$ (02/20/02; 10:40:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 70457)
More Pepto please!!!
The powers that be continue to give the patient (stock market) more and more pepto but eventually even that won't work. The patient got out of bed this morning but quickly realized that it better lie down before it got sick.
Looking at the daily/weekly charts on a lot of market 'leaders' tells me we are likely very close to some serious projectile vomiting!!! Gotta love it. Short stocks long gold!!!

G$

Gandalf the White (2/20/02; 10:22:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 70456)
Second of Hall of Fame Nomination: miner49er #70211
Mr Gresham (2/20/02; 06:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70445)
Might we turn these posts of praise into the three necessary seconds for the HOF nomination?
====
May I start out by being also a SECOND for this nomination!!
Tis been a while since the HOF entry door has been opened.
<;-)

Narroway Walk (2/20/02; 09:51:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 70455)
The Philly Incidental Indicator Black Blade Response
Thanks for the thoughtful and well done post in response to my concern. Even though 10% seems a bit high to me, and yes I don't get around the country to see, the news does seem to support the validity of the growing BonePile. Perhaps I sit on the ultimate incidental indicator which I'll call.....( I don't know)..lets just say maybe they do ring a bell at the top. The Liberty Bell. When the malls around here start to lose tennants and board up then we'll know.
And cheers to you too!

Waverider (2/20/02; 09:26:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 70454)
The Economic Dimension To The African Union
http://allafrica.com/stories/200202190408.html
Snippit:
"This Issues Paper is intended to identify some of the principal issues surrounding African regional economic integration and the African Union. Economic integration in Africa is an imperative if the continent is to achieve its potential, and to participate on equal terms in the global economy.

The paper seeks to ask, what have been the political and economic factors that have propelled or hindered integration processes around the world? It looks both at the experience of other regions, including Europe, Asia and the Americas, and the history of attempts at economic integration and political unification in Africa. The final section focuses on the challenges of implementing the African Union."

Waverider: Very interesting article by initial quick preview. Gotta run... a great day to All. Cheers!

Waverider (2/20/02; 09:05:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70453)
Dangerous yen
http://atimes.com/japan-econ/DB20Dh01.html
Snippit:
"As the yen keeps on weakening to the cheers of clueless
Japanese politicians hoping for an export-led recovery and studied inaction by the country's central bank, Japan's neighbors are not amused.

Since late 2000, in two (December 2000/January 2001 and December 2001/January) ratchet moves, the yen has lost about 21 percent against the US dollar. This controlled devaluation, which economic ministers say merely reflects market fundamentals, has done little for Japanese growth: Exports account for just 10 percent of GDP. But as the yen slide continues from the present 133 toward 140 to the dollar, it is continuing to erode the export competitiveness and growth potential of other Asian economies whose export dependencies range from China's 25 percent to Korea's 45 and Southeast Asia's more than 50 percent.

Waverider: Interesting article on the potential implications of a weakened yen on the Asian economies. Cheers!

Gimli_ (2/20/02; 09:03:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 70452)
No more "elves" on "Wall Street Week" signals nastier markets.... exodus!
http://www.trendmacro.com/a/guest/goodman/20020220goodman.asp
Bye-bye Market, Bye-bye Elves
Wednesday, February 20, 2002
Fred Goodman

Fred thinks it could get nastier here -- and notes that the "elves" of Wall Street Week seem to have capitulated right off the air.

Of the three falling markets, only the NASDAQ fell on increasing volume. We could be in store for a very nasty decline on increasing volume.

As the market declines there is more and more discussion about "capitulation," the mass exodus at the end of a decline. There has been entirely too much optimism displayed by the public, but especially by the professional "gurus," like Abbey Joseph Cohen and others who frequent Wall Street Week on PBS. I noticed the other night that the "Elves" have been eliminated from the show. I guess the heat got too high since they have been bullish for two years without exception, something like 10 bulls to 2 neutral and none bearish. Oh well, they won't be missed.

The only way out of the current decline is for there to be a little rally on lower volume followed by a bigger rally on higher volume. I really don't look for it to start today, or even, for that matter, this week. In any case, when it comes, we'll be ready for a dip into the ETF's, probably SPY and DIA, only a slight possibility of the QQQ's. It's far too soon on my calendar for long term commitments to mutual funds. The ETFs permit one to get in and out with the least cost and the most speed. Just right for now.....

Black Blade (2/20/02; 09:01:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 70451)
Narroway Walk and Nickel62
Sorry I couldn't get back to you sooner, I was at the gym.

The unemployment numbers were in a range quoted by Forbes report a few weeks ago. The number of unemployed that are quoted by the BLS on Thursdays are the new filings and on Fridays the numbers are representative of the prior month's unemployed. As those unemployed run out of benefits they are no longer counted as unemployed. I know that it sounds absurd but then government statisticians are either rather dim bulbs or are just dishonest. Some statistics are massaged data using bogus statistical filters such as "seasonal adjustment". Remember these are the same dim bulbs that came up with "hedonic" deflators. When a statistical series has been seasonally adjusted, "the normal seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out and data for any month can be more meaningfully compared with data from any other month or with an annual average". In other words they lie by fudging the data. The unemployment data calculations were substantially revised in 1994 (no kidding!). These revisions mean that we are not likely to see a real meaningful presentation on unemployment or under employment data - possibly due to political considerations.

According to Katharine G. Abraham, Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner 1994, in BLS report 864: "Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. Indeed, typically less than a third of the unemployed file claims for UI benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed". Does this mean that the unemployment rate isn't just 5.6%, but rather 16.8% (5.6% X 3)? They also rely on a poll of a randomly selected sample of 60,000 Americans every month. Reliable data? Hmmm...

Some areas of the country and certain occupations are perhaps more likely to experience higher rates of unemployment than others. I know several unemployed and under employed in Northern California, Idaho, and Nevada. There have also been reports of unemployment funds running short of cash (especially in Texas). There is a push in Congress and in the administration to extend unemployment benefits 13 weeks longer (opposed by some in Congress).

We read about dot.comers and Techies from Silicon Valley (Bay Area) to New York who are unemployed. We also read about those on Wall Street who are slashing their rolls. We also read about the severe problems in the tourism industry (heck there are even rooms available in Utah near the venues during the Olympics and the casinos in Las Vegas and Atlantic City are hurting). Detroit and other auto manufacturing centers are laying off workers or working much shorter weeks.

We read about one company after another filing for bankruptcy (Enron, Kmart, Global Crossing, Kaiser Aluminum, etc.) or just shutting down factories (such as Boeing). Airlines are on the ropes and even United Airlines may have to go tits up next year unless business picks up or they get bailed out. Some banks are on the ropes as well. Providian and Fleet Financial look rather sickly.

I remember when I lived in Allentown, PA and Mack Truck closed up. I knew many who were out of work. Many other locations around the country did not experience the same problems. I see that US Steel and Bethlehem Steel are practically abandoned as well. I don't know how the region of Eastern PA is faring these days. However, much of the rest of the country is experiencing a severe recession/depression. Go to most any small town or city in the Western US and you may find the situation to be more dire. Actually the number of unemployed may even exceed 10%. We may only be able to guess beyond that as the BLS will not account for those who can find employment or who have given up.

I could go into detail about the data collection from selected polls and the BLS statistical methodology used and how different regression techniques are used for various models in some of the smaller states and D.C., but we don't have that much bandwidth here. It is a horrifically long report. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Goldilocks 1 (2/20/02; 08:11:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 70450)
(No Subject)
*****298.0*****

Waverider (2/20/02; 07:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 70449)
Bad debts threaten credit card issuers
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3IJAQJWXC&live=true
Snippit:
"Solid consumer spending may be helping the US economy to avoid a longer and deeper recession, but it has pushed consumer debt levels to 14-year highs and sub-prime credit card companies may face considerable problems.

"Sub-prime issuers are having a difficult time reflecting what is happening among lower-income families, where debt levels are at record highs and unemployment is rising," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, an online economics research group.

Because consumer loans lag behind unemployment, which is expected to peak in mid-2002, credit quality is expected to continue worsening for the rest of this year.

Analysts say the severity of the credit squeeze will become clearer in the next four to eight weeks.

The bulk of personal bankruptcy filings tend to occur in March and April because people take on debt before Christmas, start to struggle in January and February and then give up trying."

Waverider: Not exactly an indication of impending economic recovery...

Cavan Man (2/20/02; 07:18:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 70448)
Mr. Gresham
I second for HOF miner49er #70211

nickel62 (2/20/02; 06:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 70447)
Narrow Way and Black Blade My informal observations
I work in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia for part of my business and have noticed the same persistent strength that you mentioned. But I also live and work in Baltimore MD just a hundred miles south of Philadelphia. There the dominant mall in the area north of the city has over a fifth of it's stores closed and the anchor tennent or Nordstorm about to close it's store. This is surprising since the suburbs north of the city such as the Towson area are central to where most of the wealthiest people in Baltimore live and that a major mall is seeing such glaring vacancies is alarming. I have a business that puts me in touch with many different types of people and many are out of work. The hotel, limosine,office furniture, securities and financial services industries as well as travel related areas of the small business community has been particularly hard hit. The rather unusual nature of this recession is that many companies are still seeing strength as the low interest rates are still causing the housing market to perk along in this area as many sell their homes or refinance to raise money to weather a loss of their jobs. It is a mixed picture clearly but one that has just begun to unravel in many areas.

Christian (2/20/02; 06:10:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 70446)
Off Balance Sheet Financing
What is stopping anyone from leasing silver or gold or anything else and have it in a contract that the leased gold or silver be sold only to the leaser. Most banks in my area do just that. All is off balance sheet financing. MBNA does it. Bank of England has been doing it since its start up. What is there to stop anyone from leasing and buying the same metal back again and again and again.

Mr Gresham (2/20/02; 06:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70445)
Hall of Fame Nomination: miner49er #70211
miner49er (02/16/02; 18:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70211)

What was I thinking! (Or not thinking.) It took waking up in the middle of the night, lying awake an hour thinking of various nothings, pondering getting out of bed to do some computer work while the house is quiet, then thought about some tax-deferred investments (college 529 plans) for someone, and realized "THIS reminds me of something; something I meant to get back to."

That something was miner49er's dissection on Saturday of "Financial Arbitrage Socialism -- the next New Deal". The creation of various financial "products" both short and long-term, which by their very existence buoy support for the dollar, and especially the idea of "targeted savings".

It was praised that day by USAGOLD (#70214), Sir Cavan Man (#70215), Sir Canuck (#70218), Sir Belgian (#70232), and myself, in which I commented:

"That was some fine, original, and inspiring work! I think you've opened up some new vistas for students of "money" and even for Doug Noland, with his catalogues of "financial claims" abounding, who could pick up a few new ones he hadn't thought of. You really are peering behind the curtain, and pointing to the system's use of the dimension of Time (something "they ain't makin' anymore of") to buy off people's expectations in the present. "

Might we turn these posts of praise into the three necessary seconds for the HOF nomination?

Excerpts below for the lazy ;) but go read the original of Saturday 2/16. It's worth it for the literary inclusions alone.

"...Savings as discussed here, is not savings. It is a loan to the bank. ...You may have used your "savings" to loan to them, but it is a loan nonetheless. Deposit is a terribly misleading term. ...

"The premium you pay for the additional benefits (tax favored treatment, matching funds, etc.) are that you have time and usage constraints. Upon maturity of the obligations, you must still obtain goods and services -- even the targeted ones -- at current prices. Your bet is that the marginal benefits of preparing for these expenses, via these vehicles, will be greater in relation to alternative possibilities. ...

"If I'm reading between the lines correctly, I perceive the U.S. Central Bank is quite well aware that they have wrung all the blood and plasma out of this stone, and are beginning a shift to a "new alchemy." ...

"Traditionally, we have tried to instill the currency unit itself with value by way of commodities, or people's productivity, or even hyper-efficient transaction utility (the use value required by big money arbitrageurs, et al.). We then hope that the currency unit can hold its value by these mechanisms in terms of future procurement of goods and services.

"What if we could promise the goods or services, deliverable in the future, at today's prices, instead of guaranteeing the accounting instrument? ...

"If we take the forward concept away from the framework of corn and pork-bellies, and the lay-away concept away from Walmart and Target, and apply the thinking to the purchase of old-age care, medical expenses, college tuition, and the like, we do have a new variation on a theme. Indeed, the accounting instrument will assume, of its own, stability vis-�-vis the things it is contracted to buy. (Ah, the wonders of fiat...)

[Too much good stuff here to include it all...]

"...And as currency is want to do, its notional backing would face constant debasement. Practically speaking, the quality of the tuition eventually received would not be what we expected.

"Why would people enter into such arrangements? Because, unhappily, people are possessed of the good and bad quality of child-like trust in their governing institutions. ...

"...They have been effectively discouraged from saving gold. They sense a need to hoard in the face of escalating prices, so why not provide them something to hoard, that is still yet defined in terms of a financial asset? Governments would buy the idea as it serves to remove much of the financial burden from a whole host of social programs. Yet it does so without causing the bureaucracy to relinquish their coveted control of these same programs. Financing companies would welcome the idea, as it would provide both a new game to play, and a fresh fix of funds to play with.

"I mentioned there was another less conventional way to approach the financing of this concept. Let's look at it now. In the contract concept just mentioned, the contract still ultimately depends upon the fate of its denominating instrument (the dollar). The funds used to purchase the contract disappear immediately into the world of whithersoever-they-will, no longer coupled to the future deliverable. In contrast, this second approach attempts to maintain this coupling. In doing so, the possibility exists to create a new "special-purpose" currency vehicle altogether. Instead of the buyer effectively buying forward a future deliverable, he instead sets up an account somewhat similar to an IRA conceptually. The goal is again targeted savings. Only this time the deposited funds belong to the depositor, and remain associated to the deliverable.

[Gresham: Y'know, I was trying just to excerpt here, but every paragraph keeps delivering a punch...]

"Why targeted savings? Two reasons. First, this helps ensure these funds stay under the control of the financing institutions - as they remain financial assets, and do not find their way into real goods and services purchased currently. This would cause the fated exposure of the tenuousness of the financial assets relative to escalating consumer prices. Second, (really the same thing, just another way of expressing it) it transfers the feared unknowns of where these currency units may ultimately alight as value stores in the public's mind (commodity and goods hoarding), and polarizes them to a defined future deliverable (which is still presently negotiated as a financial asset).

"The nature of the deliverables must be such that they can readily be redefined. They must also be in high and inelastic demand. Services such as health care, old-age care, and education suit these purposes quite well.

"In this method, since the originating funds still belong to the depositor, these funds effectively become part of the financial institutions reserves. Since these funds are earmarked for the purchase of an appreciating asset, at a fixed price, they acquire extra value, and can be lent at a premium. Such accounts can also find liquidity by being rolled up together with similar instruments, and diced-and-spliced according to the wants of the marketplace. The service ultimately provided, as in the method above, will be inferior to what the buyer hoped for, but he will most likely receive it nominally anyway.

"What is different here is that the funds involved take on a life of their own so long as they are traveling in this new savings vehicle. As long as the funds are tied to an inelastic and high demand future deliverable, they, like Oisin above, in a land of eternal youth, retain their youthful vigor.

"Do we not now have a new "virtual asset" backed currency that can travel side-by-side with our other fiat currencies, including the old and mortal dollar? Could this new currency not be used as tender in our daily transactions (bread, butter, and beer), and thus add new life to the entire U.S. dollar regime? By providing a confidence of a value store to a daily use currency issued by the U.S. dollar faction, is not the incentive to move to gold taken away yet again from domestic participants? And, hopefully, could this not entice global speculators to stay for one more drink and one more dance, too?

"As far as complicating restrictions on the premature withdrawal or termination of these accounts, perhaps no more would be required than that they would be nominally exchanged for old-fashioned mortal dollars. And like the tragic Oisin, once so much as haymouse brushing earth's pebbles, these special-vehicle dollars, suspended in youth, would return to their proper age and strength, to purchase whatever they may command in that day.

"Will people actually go for this? For all the reasons listed earlier, yes of course. Will they accept an inferior future product - the inevitable outcome of such schemes? They already do with traditional socialism - for which they still clamor - even with its track record of inefficiency. Would people not be likely to accept a more efficient, cost-effective way to get the same thing? Especially, if they feel they have more "control" of the outcome... They "save" today in tax-deferred retirement accounts for all its worth because they believe unquestioningly in the integrity of the unit that accounts their "savings." Even as they watch their so-called savings evaporate before their eyes. Very few have any knowledge at all about what they are doing. Why would I expect people to behave any differently here? Cynical perhaps, but pragmatic...

"So, welcome to the "New Alchemy." But if you have a choice, I suggest you reject alchemy altogether and just buy gold - the real thing - while it's still selling at give-away prices."

Gresham: Of all the posts that should not just "disappear down the memory hole" this one holds pre-eminence. With all we have learned here to dissect financial shenanigans, and to read the storm clouds coming over the horizon, this one steers us to apply what we have learned and developed here to something new (whether or not they ever get to fully implement it before an implosion) and should be read and re-read in the years ahead.

nickel62 (2/20/02; 05:59:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 70444)
Dracula has noticed that the blood is HIV positive and has decided to drink less!
UPDATE 1-Barrick to emphasize spot sales, mulls asset swaps
February 15, 2002 6:48:00 PM ET

(Adds details throughout from Canada conference call)

By Lesley Wroughton

TORONTO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. said on Friday it will not increase its gold forward sales program amid a bullish outlook for gold prices and low interest rates, but will put more emphasis on spot sales.

The world's second-largest gold producer said as it released fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday that it would cut the portion of output it delivers into its hedging program to 50 percent at $365 an ounce, from 61 percent, with the balance sold at spot prices.

The company's hedge book at Dec. 31 included 18.2 million ounces in spot deferred contracts, or 22 percent of reserves. This includes 1.9 million ounces from Homestake Mining Co., a U.S. rival it bought last year for $2.3 billion.

The full book, which also includes short call options and other contracts, had a mark-to-market of $356 million at the end of the quarter -- up from $213 million in the third quarter.

TownCrier (2/20/02; 05:59:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 70443)
Two noteworthy items from WGC Rhonna O'Connell's remarks today
http://www.gold.org/
------------After dropping towards support at $292 in New York yesterday in the wake of an interview with Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke, in which the question was raised of the possibility of future gold sales, the market has been well supported since. The Bundesbank has this morning delivered a statement to Reuters as follows:

"We are still abiding by the central bank gold agreement of 1999. We have no plans for the immediate future to sell large amounts of gold".

The Bundesbank is a signatory to the Washington Agreement on Gold (which was signed in 1999 and expires in September 2004). The gold market is confident that the Agreement will be renewed thereafter, and thus that any official sector sales under such an agreement would be orderly and not disruptive. The Bundesbank last year sold 12 tonnes of gold for the minting of the Deutsche Bundesbank commemorative coin, and will provide a further 11 tonnes this year for the minting of a gold Euro coin to celebrate "Euro Day" in May. Both of these sales fall within the auspices of the Washington Agreement.------------

And she also reports on the latest developments on the gold support program of the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank that we reported on last year when it was first initiated.

--------The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is reported to have raised its floor price for gold and to have introduced a Gold Fund for struggling producers. The floor price has been raised from US$430/ounce to US$434.3/ounce.-----------

(Pssssst... If you're looking to buy, you'll be happy to know you can currently get your gold from USAGOLD/Centennial much cheaper than that!)

R.

Narroway Walk (2/20/02; 05:58:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 70442)
Black Blade: You Said.....
Last night you mentioned that you thought unemployment was actually running around 8 to 9%
Well I respect you very much and always read your posts giving great weight to your analysis but I feel it's important to jump in at this juncture. tI'd encourage you to be careful with the numbers for the sake of ongoing credibility, not with me so much but rather with the casual lurkers. Where I live, Philly suburbs, the economy is still very strong and shopping is robust. Perhaps people aren't buying at quite the rate on the big ticket stuff but the stores are full of people with that resolute "shop-till-I-drop"look in their eye. Also, I personally don't know a single person who is out of work. I do firmly believe in the macro-economic view of Prechter at Elliott wave Int. for a deep depression of "grand supercycle degree". It all seems to come together for me intellectually but am still waiting to see the proof with my eyes at least in my area. Keep up the good work my e-friend.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (2/20/02; 05:37:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 70441)
Your great-grandfather carried one, now you can, too!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

U.S. Liberty $10 Eagle
$10 Liberty

A "Premium" Opportunity

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

Black Blade (2/20/02; 04:49:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70440)
Computer Associates Under Scrutiny
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020220/business_tech_computerassociates_report__1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal prosecutors have opened a preliminary inquiry into whether Computer Associates International Inc. (NYSE:CA) deliberately overstated its profits to inflate its stock price and enrich its senior executives, the New York Times reported on Wednesday.

Since October 2000, the Islandia, N.Y.-based software company has reported its financial results using a nonstandard ''pro forma'' accounting practice that makes its profits and sales seem much larger than under standard accounting rules, the Times said.

Former employees have said that Computer Associates began using pro forma accounting because it had run out of ways to inflate its results under standard accounting rules and had to find a new method, the Times said.

Black Blade: More Enrons coming outta the woodwork.

Black Blade (2/20/02; 04:41:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70439)
BOJ asked Koizumi to look at help for banks -media
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020219/t133125_4.html

Snippit:

TOKYO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Masaru Hayami has urged Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to consider steps to stabilise financial markets, including a possible injection of public funds to shore up fragile banks, Japanese media said on Wednesday.

Black Blade: I see that they have no choice. Word is that some major bank failures are imminent. The banks are insolvent and the major reason for the withdrawal of savings deposit insurance id that the government does not want to be exposed for the coming massive defaults and bank closures. Now the BOJ is screaming for help. Japanese housewives may be flocking to the bullion dealers very soon.

News just out this morning - Computer Associates is being probed by the SEC for (you guessed it) - questionable accounting practices.

Black Blade (2/20/02; 04:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70438)
Ski - Silver Hedges

First Silver Reserve is both profitable and unhedged. This puts them in a class by themselves. However, in response to your question I was referring to primary silver producers.

Even though SIL will be a primary Zinc-Lead producer at San Cristobo (the future flagship operation), they have other projects such as some small Gold mine operations. SIL states in their 10Q: "We would expect to balance the use of price-hedging techniques to mitigate some of the risks associated with fluctuations in the prices of the metals produced, while allowing us to take advantage of rising metal prices should they occur". They are currently engaged in metals trades and presumably that includes various hedge agreements.

SSRI has no producing Silver operations. Looking at the balance sheet, it is obvious that they will hedge for financing startup costs same as SIL. I could not find a 10Q listed.

CDE has a small hedging program. Last quarter they had recently made some adjustments to the call option portion of their hedging program as noted in their 10Q. Though that may refer mostly to their forward sold position in Gold or perhaps both Gold and Silver. Note that they are still trying to recover lost inventory of Silver when Handy and Harman (the refiners) went tits up.

As far as PAAS, I am not aware if they still have a hedging program in place. I may be in error on this, however, I seem to recall mention of a silver hedging program at the time of the Dukat project debacle in Russia a couple of years ago when the Russian company Polymetal badly burned them (now their Russian partner). However, I now see that Pan American claims to have "no outstanding hedge positions in any metal" listed on their web site. Perhaps a new development or maybe I was mistaken. Thanks for pointing that out. I'll put it on my watch list. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Knallgold (2/20/02; 02:35:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 70437)
BuBa
"That's the alarm ringing in the central banks; not in my office." CM

A statement to the point!Maybe the Bundesbank has to declare the "Westpoint" Gold as lost.Altough I know FOA said Germany still owns its Yellow.

It seems likely since some time that the WA will be extended after 2004.As to the right timing of the sale:in two years,with POG at 5000 euros or so,maybe it IS okay to cash in some...
As to the better performing assets,imagine hyperinflation and bonds at 20% !

Gold to tha people! Let them make lots of Eurolander coins for us.It is in better hands that way.

But so far,IT IS ONLY A FURTHER INFLATION OF THE PAPER GOLD MARKET.

And from now on,lets pronounce socialism and a failing paper (Gold) concept always in the same sentence.Welteke is a socialist, so is WEichel and Schroeder-not-getting-a-blue-letter-weakening-the-euro.

Socialism/ists is/are an untolerable burden to the euro."The euro will be a success,make no doubt" (Pandagold)-ergo ...!

ski (2/20/02; 01:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 70436)
Do ALL silver producers hedge?

Black Blade 2/15/02 20:43 #70168

Black Blade your above post:
"On the other hand I see the silver producers have ALL sold forward to the extreme (except First Silver Reserve)"

One of us must have incorrect information on the above. There are generally two classes of silver producers: by-product silver producers (many) and primary silver producers (few). There are 7 primary silver producers listed on the GE silver website. Two of them, SIL and SSRI own silver properties but do not even have an operational mine and have nothing to sell forward. Two more, CDE and PAAS, have stated year after year in their annual reports that they have no silver hedges and are not planning to hedge.

I will leave it to you to clarify this issue ... Thanks in advance for your response.

Wky_Woodsman (2/20/02; 01:08:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 70435)
Contest

*****289.4*****

Looks like an area that it will be boxed for awhile. Thinking that it is still accumulating time for now.
Wky_Woodsman

TEX (2/20/02; 00:42:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 70434)
Bad Timing
Dang it.....been out of town and away from the gold charts. I have been waiting two and a half years to sell off that 289/oz gold cause I just know its going to briefly go a little lower sooner than later. Here it was at 300/oz and I miss my chance. Dip down you nasty DOW, slump more you ugly NASDAQ, die you lowlife dollar and spike up you wonderful gold so I can sell. Then.....gold, dip down again so I can buy a little lower and feel at ease for the next upward spike. I love that roller coaster ride. Hey, its better than the stock market for sure!

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