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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/20/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Chris Powell (04/20/01; 22:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 52287) The riddle of the low gold price solved, Part 2 http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/735 Thanks to Reg Howe, James Turk, andGATA.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Chris Powell (04/20/01; 22:00:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 52286) The riddle of the low gold price solved, Part 1 http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/734 Here's exactly how the Exchange StabilizationFund does it, with the help of the Bundebank.Part 1.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Netking (04/20/01; 21:59:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 52285) Silver - The Unwinding Strategy Of The Silver Shorts It is worthy to give a valid consideration to the fundamental strategy & plan of the shorts & how they will try and unwind their positions(the largest naked short positions ever)whilst remaining "intact".To think that there is not a strategy in place (without Government perusal/assistance) is at best bordering on stupid. They're not, & have carefully assessed the given scenarios & the Silver markets D & S dynamics There is a strategy for the Government to come & confiscate all available physical Silver at the right time (what's left that is) and terminate all paper contracts of Silver. The parties at the wrong end of the equation are disturbed by the prospect of the "market forces" in control and will do their best to prevent that predictable outcome from being entering into manfestation & onto the pages of the nations history books.The answer & the best insurance policy "IF" these large shorts get their way(but lets pray to God they don't!); Hold some your physical Silver holdings outside of the USA. You would be aware of some of the larger profile investors in recent times that have & do just that. It's easily done & until we see what unwinds it's gives peace of mind.regards Netking. Henri (04/20/01; 21:25:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 52284) Alternate hypothesis Notwithstanding the excellant Sherlock Holmes-like sleuth work presented by Mr. Turk, it may be a different/same gold "swap" that the "Treasury" economist was referring to at the '95 FMOC meeting.I recall the Mexican bailout itself involved a gold transaction managed by the BIS (much to their chagrin). This was made quite public but the exact details were very shady. Given the sudden interest of the US in becoming active in the BIS around the '95 dollar slide...(Alice Rivlin was sent to meetings as I believe) after decades of pointed non-involvement or even direct competion with BIS through the IMF, it would not suprise me to find out that the West Point gold now actually belongs to the BIS rather than the Bundesbank. A post dated affair where the "swap" was ear-marked to show up on the Mint books upon Clinton's last year in office. The BIS gold went to banking buddies (bullion banking buddies?)..not the Mexicans as most Americans believe. They were perhaps lent the gold through a foreign intermediary (BIS?) to lease out at 1% or less and use the proceeds to make themselves whole after getting their collective tails caught in the Mexican door slam. Perhaps the BIS was not so happy with this arrangement since they didn't trust the US Administration. Gee, I wonder why?This alternative hypothesis could explain why the West Point gold was made "custodial" but not what happened to the Bundesbank gold. Perhaps the BIS "swapped" the obligation of the ESF for Bundesbank to supply the gold and they just acted as ...er...broker for the transaction. Perhaps they were going to replace it with the Swiss gold sales. Around this time frame I also recall there were rumors of substantially more gold bars floating around either London or Europe stamped as originating in South Africa Than had ever been accouted for as actually having come from that place. Coincidence?Hmm, now what? Don't we all have our collective nummies in the proverbial wringer? auspec (04/20/01; 19:50:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 52283) Behind Closed Doors James Turk @ LeMetropolecafe.com Borrowing a snippet from James Turk's most recent gold mystery thriller:"The ESF is a slush fund beyoud Congressional oversight. It can be used to 'get around' most anything.""It has become increasingly clear as more and more evidence emerges that the Secretary of the Treasury does not answer questions concerning the ESF because he, but not his underlings know to what extent the ESF is engaged in gold related activities.""The Treasury has gold in West Point. The Bundesbank has gold in Europe. The Treasury cannot do a deal with the Bundesbank because unlike the ESF, the Treasury is subject to Congressional oversight. So instead the Secretary of the Treasury and the President {wjc} decide to use the ESF to set up a swap line for gold with the Bundesbank.""By so doing, the gold in the Bundesbank's vault in Europe becomes ESF gold, to do with as they please-i.e., the ESF lends this metal to bailout certain bullion banks."Comment: First the "smoking gun" and now the DNA match. Load up for the fireworks ahead!P.S. Can you believe our own govt would lie to us? Who woulda thunkit? John Doe (04/20/01; 18:42:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 52282) US Recession Assume, for all its sins, the US gets away with half the recession Japan has endured (IMO, big assumption). I doubt Dr. Greenspan can cut all the way to zero, maybe 2%, worst case, and that's a stretch, too. That leaves 2.5% of FFR "goodies" (cuts) to spread over the next five years, or ~0.5% per year. The economy/Wall Street has some interesting times/adjustments ahead. AEL (04/20/01; 18:34:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 52281) Funding for Search Functionality HBM wrote: "I will pay my fair share."A number of participants could chip in $10-20. OR, CPM could*ask* for a donation amounting to (say) .25% or .1% ofcurrent purchases (optional; voluntary; most people would probably go with it). That would be plenty. AEL (04/20/01; 18:10:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 52280) added benefit An added benefit of this (individual-post archive) would bethat it would be possible to save and refer to (and sendout, and post) *specific URLs* of favorite or notable posts. donnemuir (04/20/01; 18:00:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 52279) Search Engine I'm in...fee or password...(or both if necessary)this is the best of 'em all. AEL (04/20/01; 17:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 52278) Search Function Randy wrote:"We have indeed looked into providing the type of search function that has been requested, but given the particular structure of our archives, this would require a herculean effort to restructure these 52,000 posts."......... for whatever it may be worth: I do not thinkthis is a difficult job. If I had the archives on disk (say a CD or two) I could probably prep them for upload to thesite in a couple days (though would probably need a somewhatmore "industrial strength" FTP program for the actualuploading). Dividing them up into individual posts is nobig deal, using a file-splitter utility with good switches.Then it is just a matter of choosing one of thefree site-indexing services, and specifying the area of thesite to be indexed. Voila! Searchable archives.I have done this sort of thing before, on a smaller scale.The same principles apply for 10 megabytes or 500 megabytes.It is not rocket science. CoBra(too) (04/20/01; 17:45:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 52277) Wow - Auspec - thanks for directions ... Just returned from J. Turks peek - behind closed doors -now dam'it close the door don't slam it ... and get your physical as long as the 'window' is open for thee...cb(ee) CoBra(too) (04/20/01; 17:26:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 52276) O'Neill mystified by some European beliefs that their economic ... ... growth prospects were unaffected by developments in the US. "... we're all in this together!" - triggered a remark from Sweden's minister of finance (at a Malmö meeting of EU finance ministers - some being openly critical on ECB's staunch stand against rate reductions) Bosse Ringholm: " It is a fact that the American economy will mean less and less to Europe because the EU is becoming stronger and therefor European dependence will diminish. And that is a fact the US will discover!" Strong words in view of another America's NAFTA-(lin) effort in Quebec (good try!), meeting the wrath of same anti globalization crowd as anywhere else, lately. Even as the EU politicos called for rate relief the ECB stands a little more "segregated" from the influence of "Tagespolitik" and brings a l.t. skeptic closer to the beliefs A/FOA have tried to hammer into our perception. Maybe the diversity of social, economical and political divergences on this multitude of nation states may insure a balance of somewhat 'balanced' (dis-)agreements? And maybe, that is what democracy needs to rejuvinate from the dictate of "capitalism", dedicated to the reign of the highest bidders on campaign (funds). ... or to 'put' it differently - AG, you've already used up 200 bp's this year and you've got 450 chop sticks left to play with before you turn the rest of the US economy to Sushi ... at best and to you cb2 auspec (04/20/01; 16:52:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 52275) beesting GATA Snailmail GATA7 Villa Louisa Rd.Manchester Ct. 06043-7541What a braintrust GATA is! James Turk's "Behind Closed" Doors is up for a read at the Cafe now.Wish I had kept my Treasury response to ESF gold sells to frame as official govt lies for my progeny, but tossed it in total disgust. beesting (04/20/01; 16:01:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 52274) West Point Gold Figures! http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/01-02.html Department of the Treasury Financial Management Service STATUS REPORT OF U.S. TREASURY OWNED GOLDbeesting: I don't think all these numbers will line up correctly when I hit the "Submit", so click above URL for full report. Snip: February 28, 2001 Summary *************Fine TroyOunces** Book Value U. S. Mint West Point, N.Y. Custodial Gold Bullion***54,067,331.379 **2,282,841,677.17 PEF Gold**************2,878,507.462 ***121,536,919.10 Total Gold West Point****56,945,838.841 **$2,404,378,596.27FRB New York Vault*****13,376,961.126 ***564,804,727.98Gold Coins**************73,451.741 Book Value** 3,101,294.10 FRB =Federal Reserve Bank *******Gold Bullion*****Book Value******Gold coins*Book Value Totals 261,535,824.358**$11,042,617,857.22* 73,829.175*$3,117,230.21 (Unsnip)beesting comment:Please notice, Gold at the Federal Reserve Bank(A Private Corporation) is still classified as Treasury Owned Gold even though it is no longer in the vaults of the U.S. Treasury. While at the same time 54,067,331.379 ounces or about 1682 Tonnes is listed as "Custodial Gold Bullion" at the West Point Mint.If "Custodial Gold Bullion" is indeed paper reciepts for Gold Bullion or Gold Bullion actually owned by someone other than the U.S. Treasury Dept.(Registered Gold???) and if the U.S. Congress & Senate and "We the People" are never informed of a huge real money(Gold) sell off I would call it an act of "TREASON"!!!From the U.S. Constitution(*Note when the Constitution refers to money they are talking about "GOLD"):Article I section 9"No money shall be drawn from the Treasury,but in Consequences of Appropriations made by law;(beesting note,my take,this means a law signed by Congress, the Senate & the President. Presidents can only act without congressional approval when a national emergency is declared, usually reserved during times of "War") and a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts and Expenditures of all """public"""(beesting parenthesis) Money(GOLD) shall be published from time to time.I don't think the employees of The Department of The Treasury know or understand what is going on or some honest soul would have blown the whistle a long time ago.Thank You Mr. Reg Howe & GATA. Mr. Powell could you please post the snail mail address for GATA, my contribution to your efforts will follow.Thanks for Reading....beesting. Midas Mulligan (04/20/01; 14:59:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 52273) to sum it up and say it all I'm John Galt on paper. Ayn Rand had an affair with Nathaniel Branden causing the Objectivist movement to dissolve admist cynicism. My mother was like Dominique in the Fountainhead, cynical idealist who married my socialist/religious father out of cynical disillusionment in the wake of the Objectivist falllout. In 1968 I was born with the mind of JOhn Galt but totally soft in body due to the fact that my parents were a contradiction. Thus I was born a hypocritical John Galt, 50/50 contradiction, who suffered 50% of what everyone else was suffering. I was supposed to recognize the fact that I was totally different and a hypocrite and buy gold to get strong by suffering in the face of universal subconscious enmity at my natural hypocrisy but I went soft and failed to do so and time ran out on me when I was 22years and gold lost it's value as an absolute and all saw the world as imperfect all the time as Only I had seen before. So I failed to save myself and became the lowest common denominator both absolutely (by birth) and relatively (by choice) by failure to buy gold in time. Thus my birth gave rise to generation x and my failure to buy gold made everything as bad as possible causing the world to have to go all the way down the dollar drain into a collapse before it's born again as perfect forever. I gave no breathing room to the individualists by failing to buy gold and put the collectivists on top. Only because I was born to be John Galt did Bush beat Gore in the election and you saw how long and difficult that was. Mr Gresham (04/20/01; 14:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 52272) T-bonds http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=138427 There is a very short pathway from a T-bond bleeding to a derivative meltdown, a la LTCM. The cornerstone of the financial world, the measure by which all arbitrage trades are anchored, somewhere. Wall Street says: "If this goes, we might as well all go home. Meanwhile, we make money..." Midas Mulligan (04/20/01; 14:42:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 52271) Addtional comments From March 21 to September 21 (6 months/50%,1/2 the time) the sun shines over 12 hours, the moon under 12 hours, and this is enlightens the mind which is good for gold appreciation. This peaks on June 21 when the solstice occurs or the sun peaks and the gold price will peak. Then no one cares about life as interest rates are 0% and inflation 100%. All of this reverses as the sun weakens/falls after June 21 and the moon rises/strenghtens till dec 21. Minds, "suns" then sell their gold for paper dollars to iron hearts "moons" and gold price falls till it becomes worthless forever except as a standard or commodity. In the process dollar regains it's iron or value as does gold as an absolute value. All become perfect in mind body spirit and then all the dead , ie. all who have ever lived return in body and life is absolute and forever in a perfect universe. I suffer to go from 50% perfect to 100% and use gold and dollars as anasthesia whereas I was supposed to buy gold before I was 22 and use it to suffer to become perfect like everyone else was doing. I went soft and failed to do so in time and then saw it all and what I was supposed to do but didnt. Gore became perfect and life was worse for everyone as for 11 yrs. (22 to 33 which I'm now) they had to see that all was imperfect unlike the previous 22 years of my life when only I, as the sun, saw that fact. Thus I going to try and buy as much gold at the top on June 21 and use it as anasthesia for my suffering as I'm hoping it's redemption in value as it's price falls will give me pleasure to offset the pain of being made perfect when 50% perfect at the time. Don't know if it will work but have nothing to lose by trying. Trail Guide (04/20/01; 14:28:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 52270) Quick note Thanks all for your reading and your nice comments. Even more so for your own points of view.Looks like I can not make it back today. I'll try another time.Randy, MK, hope I didn't place the wrong idea here about the search feature. I meant it as a thought only. My thought may have been completly out of line and off context to your business plans. My mistake, my friends. Thanks TrailGuide Orville Goldenbacher (04/20/01; 14:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 52269) Midas, no apology needed... No problemo, Gold is going to rise and we're going to send al gore to the moon where he belongs. we await june 21 and 10,000 pog. Thanks for the insight. Midas Mulligan (04/20/01; 14:15:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 52268) Public Apology Sorry for being wrong about rise in price of gold which I said would happen after March 21 equinox due to the fact that the sun would be shining over half, or 12 hours, the time and would overpower the moon which would shine less than half, or 12 hours, time. I forgot that the moon is more powerful than the sun so it takes an extra month, or 13 and something hours of sunlight, for the sun to overpower the moon and thus enlighten the mind to the fact that stocks and bonds are extremely overvalued, and gold extremely undervalued, relatively. The human representive of the moon is Al Gore who doesnt eat, sleep, drink, or have sex... ie. he is relatively perfect and has conquered all physical desire and needs. I'm the human representative of the sun. I'm weak and can not resist physical desire which is why it will take until tommorow for me to rise above Al Gore in a superficial physical sense and with it cause gold to rise and stocks and bonds to fall. I was born the sun in mind but weak in body. I was supposed to buy gold to strengthen my body and mind but I didn't because I sllowed myself to be sucked in by the superficial world and went soft. After 22 years of my 33 year old life it became too latefor meto buy gold and suffer and get stronger. Al Gore, the moon, then became perfect by my default, and the whole universe was completely perverted and gold became obsolete as an absolute value instead becoming relative like everything else. So gold will skyrocket to 10,000 and the markets will crash/ dollar collapse into hyperinflation and no one will care because its only worthless paper dollars. Then the spirit, the metal, will return to the world. Interest rates will go from 0 to 100% as the price of gold falls from 10000 to basically worthless becoming a standard for the dollar which will regain it's iron, or relative value. All will be perfect and the dead will return in physical form. This all begins after the price of gold peaks on june 21 the summer solstice and ironically Ross Perot's birthday. I will suffer for my corruption until I'm perfect like everybody else. Now I'm 50% perfect whereas everyone else is essentially 100%, imperfect only in appearance or superficially/physically. Tiger Woods beat David Duval in the Masters. This is a good example of the relative advantage of the moon vs. the sun like Gore vs. me. Woods is a moon like Gore and Duval is a sun like me but lost to Woods like I lose to Gore and gold loses to stocks and bonds despite being past the equinox march 21 because Gore is so much stronger than me that I have to wait till April 21 to get ahead of him. Thus Duval should beat Tiger in the U.S Open etc... as Gold rises above stocks in bonds and I am superficially stronger than Al Gore until June 21 when the world as it's always been is no more. It's perfect vs imperfect and immortal vs. mortal. gold standard vs. paper dollar drain. Mr Gresham (04/20/01; 12:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 52267) Funnybones Ready? http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=138345 Cyrano de BearAttack has presented the many "Definitions of Political Economy""An Easy Guide to Political Economy using 2 cows.... FEUDALISM: You have two cows. Your lord takes some of the milk. ..."and 19 more, right on through Surrealism Randy (@ The Tower) (04/20/01; 12:26:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 52266) Search feature...to Hill Billy Mitchell and Trail Guide HBM,Not being housed within the Centennial office space, I also have no knowledge of who has chosen to be supportive of these efforts (through their choice to do business with Centennial in preference over other gold brokerages). So let me be the first to offer a giant "THANK YOU" for your considerate decision, and for your referrals to other potential precious metals customers. Under the scenario Trail Guide has suggested, you would find yourself in the happy position to have access to this search feature without any additional comittment or expense on your part, along with all other clientele of Centennial.Trail Guide, (and all)Thank you VERY much for this suggestion, for it strikes the right balance between "means" and "ends". As you well know, when running a business, we must always be alert for COST-EFFECTIVE ways to add value to our services. We have indeed looked into providing the type of search function that has been requested, but given the particular structure of our archives, this would require a herculean effort to restructure these 52,000 posts.Certainly, if a benefactor were to be so generous as to step forward and offer to foot the bill for the "good of mankind", I would welcome the generosity, I assure you! But as you and I both know, one should not build concrete business plans or begin to take steps on such unrealistic expectations of a windfall as that gift would be.As you have rightly pointed out, this website is essentially being provided free to everyone; for surely, those who have not elected to do business with Centennial have paid nothing for their continued access or toward supporting this website. And all those wonderful clientele who HAVE wired funds to Centennial have received in return FULL compensation for those funds with shipments of gold and other precious metals. This website is a just a bonus, paid for with a combination of donated time and with Centennial's marginal operating expense funds.We donate this time because we believe in providing quality monetary education, and Centennial pays the electric bills and other operational expenses because, to be sure, this site provides a good degree of exposure for Centennial's precious metals business to a quality (metal-minded) audience. Yet in the end, people remain free to absorb our on-line efforts at no cost to themselves, and then callously reward some other company with their metal-buying business. Barring the arrival of a benefactor with deep pockets, your suggestion, Trail Guide, would be the perfect logistical manner to justify the effort and expense involved in implementing the search function. Because we would ultimately be absorbing the expense through donations of time and higher fees by Centennial to the web-hosting service, the qualifications on users of the search feature to be limited only to our venerated Centennial clientele (big and small, alike) is an exceptional idea. It would provide a very nice value-added incentive (as if the reliable gold and the friendly service were not enough) for more people to choose Centennial instead of choosing some other less-giving company to fulfill their diversifacation requirements with gold and other precious metals.But all that said, I'm already spread very thin, so this extra feature can't be expected overnight...unless Centennial sees fit to specifically "hire" it done against the promise of improvements to future business. After all, this is a business, folks, not a government operation that can perpetually borrow or tax to stay alive. Micheal's 30 years in operation, through good markets and bad, speaks for itself, does it not? Carl H (04/20/01; 12:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 52265) Gold Manipulation Start Date I just made an interesting observation after reading Reg Howe's rebuttal including the quote from FOMC meeting. It referrs to "Council at the Whitehouse". Vince Foster was Deputy Couuncil at the Whitehouse. He "committed suicide" 7/20/93. Dimitri Speck's work posted over at Gold Eagle estimates the start of the gold price manipulation was 8/5/93. I just thought the dates were a bit interesting. Henri (04/20/01; 11:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 52264) Randy Post # 52191...Savings boost solution You posted exerpt from Gramlich:"...EXCERPTSWASHINGTON, April 19 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich said on Thursday that raising the level of national savings is crucial....Gramlich examined various proposals for propping up the nation's public retirement program.....said some approaches, including setting up voluntary individual savings accounts for the poor or setting aside a portion of payroll taxes for individuals to invest themselves, may not go far enough in creating new savings. "Here is a potential pitfall - the approaches with the most political popularity may also be those with the least effect on national saving." -----"Then commented:"What are YOU saving for that "rainy" or restful day? Is it sufficiently immune from the inevitably political devaluation of the printing presses?"True. Gold is exempt from the $ printing press in dollar terms...but apparently not from the gold paper printing press in concert with the $ printing press. It would seem holders of physical will have to wait out the end game before the wealth value of their holdings become apparent.The plan I saw posted here to exchange higher "$ priced" gold for forgiveness of debt plays right into the hands of the usurpers. Only after the gold is transferred to the power brokers will it be allowed to demonstrate its true worth. It may not have worth for debt forgiveness. Better to have no debt and own gold so as to weather the coming storm.If Gramlich is serious about boosting savings, all they need do is allow interest on savings in a Federally Insured Bank be exempt from taxation by any authority.Having high personal savings rate does not seem to have helped the Japanese avoid recession. As has been said... the only way to boost the economy is to go out and buy something. That tends to deplete savings doesn't it? ge (04/20/01; 11:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 52263) Quotes from Rothbard http://www.mises.org/money.asp 9. Phase IX: Fluctuating Fiat Currencies, March 1973 -?With the dollar breaking apart, the world shifted again, to a system of fluctuating fiat currencies….Since the U.S. went completely off gold in August 1971 and established the Friedmanite fluctuating fiat system in March 1973, the United States and the world have suffered the mostintense and most sustained bout of peacetime inflation in the history of the world. It should beclear by now that this is scarcely a coincidence. Before the dollar was cut loose from gold, keynesians and Friedmanites, each in their own way devoted to fiat paper money, confidently predicted that when fiat money was established, the market price of gold would fall promptly to its non-monetary level, then estimated at about $8 an ounce. In their scorn of gold, both groups maintained that it was the mighty dollar that was propping up the price of gold, and not vice versa.…..Unfortunately, the classical gold standard lies forgotten, and the ultimate goal of most American and world leaders is the old Keynesian vision of a one-world fiat paper standard, a new currency unit issued by a World Reserve Bank (WRB).The vital point is that such an international paper currency, while indeed free of balance-of-payment crises…Unfortunately, there would then be nothing standing in the way of the unimaginably catastrophic economic holocaust of world-wide runaway inflation, nothing, that is, except the dubiouscapacity of the WRB to fine-tune the world economy.While a world-wide paper unit and central bank remain the ultimate goal of world's Keynesian-oriented leaders, the more realistic and proximate goal is a return to a glorified Bretton Woods scheme, except this time without the check of any backing in gold. Already the world's major central banks are attempting to "coordinate" monetary and economic policies, harmonize rates of inflation, and fix exchange rates. The militant drive for a European paper currency issued by a European central bank seems on the verge of success. This goal is being sold to the gullible public by the fallacious claim that a free-trade European Economic Community (EEC) necessarily requires an overarching European bureaucracy, a uniformity of taxation throughout the EEC, and, in particular, a European central bank and paper unit. Once that is achieved, closer coordination with the Federal Reserve and other major central banks will follow immediately. And then, could a World Central Bank be far behind? Short of that ultimate goal, however, we may soon be plunged into yet another Bretton Woods, with all the attendant crises of the balance-of-payments and Gresham's Law that follow from fixed exchange rates in a world of fiat moneys….As we face the future, the prognosis for the dollar and for the international monetary system is grim indeed. Until and unless we return to the classical gold standard at a realistic gold price, the international money system is fated to shift back and forth between fixed and fluctuating exchange rate's with each system posing unsolved problems, working badly, and finally disintegrating. ge (04/20/01; 11:23:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 52262) Quotes from Rothbard http://www.mises.org/money.asp 4. Phase IV: Fluctuating Fiat Currencies, 1931-1945The world was now back to the monetary chaos of World War I, except that now there seemed to be little hope for a restoration of gold. The international economic order had disintegrated into the chaos, clean and dirty floating exchange rates, competing devaluations, exchange controls, and trade barriers; international economic and monetary warfare raged between currencies and currency blocs. International trade and investment came to a virtual standstill; and trade was conducted through barter agreements conducted by governments competing and conflicting with one another. Secretary of State Cordell Hull repeatedly pointed out that these monetary and economic conflicts of the 1930s were the major cause of World War II…5. Phase V: Bretton Woods and the New Gold Exchange Standard (the U.S.) 1945-1968While the Bretton Woods system worked far better than the disaster of the 1930's, it worked only as another inflationary recrudescence of the gold-exchange standard of the 1920s and-like the 1920s-the system lived only on borrowed time.The new system was essentially the gold-exchange standard of the 1920s but with the dollar rudely displacing the British pound as one of the "key currencies." Now the dollar, valued at 1/35 of a gold ounce, was to be the only key currency. The other difference from the 1920s was that the dollar was no longer redeemable in gold to American citizens…But the classical gold standard check on inflation- especially American inflation-was gone…To try to stop European redemption of dollars into gold, the U.S. exerted intense political pressure on the European governments, similar but on a far larger scale to the British cajoling of France not to redeem its heavy sterling balances until 1931. But economic law has a way, at long last, of catching up with governments, and this is what happened to the inflation-happy U.S. government by the end of the 1960s.6. Phase VI: The Unraveling of Bretton Woods, 1968-1971A crisis of confidence in the dollar on the free gold markets led the United States to effect afundamental change in the monetary system in March 1968. The idea was to stop the pesky freegold market from ever again endangering the Bretton Woods arrangement. Hence was born the"two-tier gold market." The idea was that the free-gold market could go to blazes; it would be strictly insulated from the real monetary action in the central banks and governments of the world…Along with this, the U.S. pushed hard fora the new launching of a new kind of world paper reserve, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which it was hoped would eventually replace gold altogether and serve as a new world paper currency to be issued by a future World Reserve Bank…7. Phase VII: The End of Bretton Woods: Fluctuating Fiat currencies, August-December, 1971As European Central Banks at last threatened to redeem much of their swollen stock of dollars for gold, President Nixon went totally off gold… The world was plunged into the fiat system of the thirties…8. Phase VIII: The Smithsonian Agreement, December 1971 -February 1973The Smithsonian Agreement, hailed by President Nixon as the "greatest monetary agreement in the history of the world," was even more shaky and unsound than the gold exchange standard of the 1920s or than Bretton Woods. For once again, the countries of the world pledged to maintain fixed exchange rates, but this time with no gold or world money to give any currency backing…In little over a year, the Smithsonian system of fixed exchange rates without gold had smashed apart on the rocks of economic reality…. Gandalf the White (04/20/01; 11:14:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 52261) MORE on the GOLDSCAM fun in Thailand ! Bangkok Post $24.7bn in fake bonds seized --Police sting brings down the curtainby Anucha Charoenpo & Wut Nontharit Dreams of a lost treasure trove took a beating yesterday with the arrest of four people holding fake pre-war US Federal Reserve bonds with a face value of $24.7 billion.They are thought to be the same bonds shown in pictures flashed around by Senator Chaowarin Latthasaksiri, who claimed they were part of a hidden treasure buried in Lijia cave, Kanchanaburi, by retreating Japanese troops at the end of World War II. He showed the pictures to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra last week.Police arrested two Filipinos, a Singaporean and a Thai yesterday in a sting operation starring the prime minister's brother, Payab Shinawatra. The four men were booked when they showed up at Deutsche Bank on Wireless road to sell the counterfeit bonds to Mr Payab, who posed as a buyer. Jacqueline Enriquez, 29, and Robert Ng, 43, of the Philippines, and Tan Ho Chee, 40, of Singapore, are alleged to have collaborated to bring in the fake 1934 US bonds into the country seven months ago. They allegedly put them in safe-keeping at Deutsche Bank under the name of their Thai partner, Chai-aree Santiwongchai, son of a Chinese-language newspaper proprietor.Pol Gen Sant Sarutanont, a deputy national police chief, said investigators also found three gold coins and a microfilm inside the safe deposit box. The police set up the sting after being tipped off by Prime Minister Thaksin on April 17 that the US Federal Reserve bonds shown to him in pictures by Mr Chaowarin might not be authentic.Mr Payab had offered to pose as a buyer.Pol Gen Sant said two of the 247 counterfeit bonds, each with a face value of US$100 million, found inside the bank deposit box were similar to those in the pictures of the bonds Mr Chaowarin had shown to the premier. He would not confirm they were identical. That was up to investigators to determine. Mr Chaowarin would be questioned if it was confirmed.The police have filed fraud and falsification charges against the four suspects, who could be jailed for life if found guilty. They were being held at the Crime Suppression Division last night. Police searched Mr Chai-aree's house on Lat Phrao soi 1 and rooms at the Town in Town hotel on Rama IX road which were rented by the three foreign suspects.The Finance Ministry yesterday declared the US bonds which Mr Chaowarin claimed were found inside Lijia cave were fake.Deputy minister Suchart Jaovisidha said checks with the US Treasury Department revealed no such bonds were ever issued.Mr Chaowarin, who has been hunting for the Japanese war booty for almost a decade, announced last week he found 250 bonds in the cave issued by the US Federal Reserve in 1934, each with a face value of US$100 million.Mr Chaowarin said the bonds, each carrying interest of US$120 million, would be used to repay Thailand's huge public debt. Mr Suchart said the Finance Ministry was told that only the US Treasury Department could issue bonds for sale to the public, not the Federal Reserve. There also was no record that the US debt had increased by about $25 billion between 1933 and 1935, he said.In the House of Representatives, MPs expressed suspicions Prime Minister Thaksin had given Mr Chaowarin his backing because he wanted to divert public attention from his wealth concealment case now before the Constitutional Court.Mr Thaksin flew to Lijia cave last Friday in response to Mr Chaowarin's claims. He said he saw only pictures, but the treasure would greatly benefit the country if it really existed.Nipit Intarasombat, a Democrat MP, said the prime minister should not have gone to the cave. Intelligence reports had long ago confirmed there was no treasure buried there.Deputy Agriculture Minister Praphat Panyachartrak came out in defence of Mr Thaksin. He said the prime minister never said the treasures existed. Mr Thaksin had a function in Kanchanaburi that day. He knew Mr Chaowarin personally and, when invited, agreed to pay a visit."There was nothing wrong about that. The prime minister has not done any damage," Mr Praphat said.Senate Speaker Manoonkrit Roopkachorn said Mr Chaowarin would be treated fairly despite mounting pressure for him to resign. The Senate should not now jump to the conclusion his treasure story was a hoax, he said.=========MORE of the same !<;-) ge (04/20/01; 11:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 52260) Quotes from Rothbard http://www.mises.org/money.asp The Monetary Breakdown of the West1. Phase I: The Classical Gold Standard, 1815-1914We can look back upon the "classical" gold standard, the Western world of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, as the literal and metaphorical Golden Age….The nineteenth century saw the benefits of one money throughout the civilized world. One money facilitated freedom of trade, investment, and travel throughout that trading and monetary area, with the consequent growth of specialization and the international division of labor…..The international gold standard provided an automatic market mechanism for checking the inflationary potential of government.2. Phase II: World War I and AfterIf the classical gold standard worked so well, why did it break down? It broke down because governments were entrusted with the task of keeping their monetary promises, of seeing to it that pounds, dollars, francs, etc., were always redeemable in gold as they and their controlled banking system had pledged. It was not gold that failed; it was the folly of trusting government to keep its promises. To wage the catastrophic war of World War I, each government had to inflate its own supply of paper and bank currency. So severe was this inflation that it was impossible for the warring governments to keep their pledges, and so they went "off the gold standard," i.e., declared their own bankruptcy, shortly after entering the war. All except the United States, which entered the war late, and did not inflate the supply of dollars enough to endanger redeemability. But, apart from the U.S., the world suffered what some economists now hail as the Nirvana of freely-fluctuating exchange rates (now called "dirty floats") competitive devaluations, warring currency blocks, exchange controls, tariffs and quotas, and the breakdown of international trade and investment. The inflated pounds, francs, marks, etc., depreciated in relation to gold and the dollar; monetary chaos abounded throughout the world.3. Phase III: The Gold Exchange Standard (Britain and the U.S.) 1926-1931How to return to the Golden Age? The sensible thing to do would have been to recognize thefacts of reality, the fact of the depreciated pound, franc, mark, etc., and to return to the goldstandard at a redefined rate: a rate that would recognize the existing supply of money and price levels….The sensible policy would have been for Britain to return to gold at approximately $3.50, and for the other inflated countries to do the same. Phase I could have been smoothly and rapidly restored. Instead, the British made the fateful decision to return to gold at the old par of $4.86.How could the British try to have their cake and eat it at the same time? By establishing a new international monetary order which would induce or coerce other governments into inflating or into going back to gold at overvalued pars for their own currencies, thus crippling their own exports and subsidizing imports from Britain. This is precisely what Britain did, as it led the way,at the Genoa Conference of 1922, into creating a new international monetary order, the gold-exchange standard.The gold-exchange standard worked as follows: The United States remained on the classical gold standard, redeeming dollars in gold. Britain and the other countries of the West, however, returned to a pseudo-gold standard, Britain in 1926 and the other countries around the same time. British pounds and other currencies were not payable in gold coins, but only in large-sized bars, suitable only for international transactions. This prevented the ordinary citizens of Britain and other European countries from using gold in their daily life, and thus permitted a wider degree of paper and bank inflation. But furthermore, Britain redeemed pounds not merely in gold, but also in dollars; while the other countries redeemed their currencies not in gold, but in pounds. And most of these countries were induced by Britain to return to gold at overvalued parities. the result was a pyramiding of U.S. on gold, of British pounds on dollars, and of other European currencies on pounds-the "gold-exchange standard," with the dollar and the pound as the two "key currencies." Old Yeller (04/20/01; 10:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 52259) FOA;#65 Trail Guide/FOA and auspec;kudos to both of you for the excellent Q&A.If only discussions of this calibre and monumental significance to our collective future would appear in the mainstream media.We truly are in the Matrix;let's just hope ours doesn't include all of the violence of the movie. Mr Gresham (04/20/01; 10:22:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52258) ET & Elwood Not sure I'm totally plugged-in to today's posts, but just off the top of my head, and oversimplifying, I think FOA is basically saying:Sure, fiat is a game. But men play games; "always have, always will". Casinos and racetracks will always flourish, won't they, even in depressions? And many people are content to lose some of their money, as long as they "feel right" about how it's done. So that's kind of the outer boundary of how UN-seriously I see people taking money.And they are willing to pay a bit for convenience. As long as the issuer of the fiat abides by a certain range of rules and expectations, the "market" will use its currency in preference to others (and police its misbehavior). Acting "responsibly" within the rules of the game. (There are "good" casinos and "bad" casinos, even if you disagree with gambling itself?)Money is a tool of convenience, and man learns to use his tools, or "walks with fools."And it is up to those with wealth, or prospective wealth, to hold most of it in something other than the fiat, and to hold any fiat only in proportion to how responsibly the currency is managed. Especially now.Monetary education can and should go on, and theorizing about "ideal money". But there is a market for many types of money, each in its own niche within a shifting balance. And educated "consumers" of money products will make better, more efficient choices, and make a better economy and better lives.But how are you going to live now? Hill Billy Mitchell (04/20/01; 09:59:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52257) Trail Guide # 52252 CPM only knows how much gold I have purchased from them. They have no idea how much has been purchased by my referral of my customers.Question: Are you a CPM customer?VRHBM Cavan Man (04/20/01; 09:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 52256) Free Trade is Focus At Quebec Summit Of 34 America's Leaders From Bloomberg service "Leaders of 34 nations of North, Central and South America met today in a third bid to agree on terms for creating the world's largest trading bloc since the plan was first proposed in 1994".Comment: Well, for me, this is the icing on the cake. Thanks FOA/Trail Guide and Another.It appears that the NA bloc will be a johnnie come lately but will eventually get into the starting blocs (necessity being the mother of invention).USA (technology + "American know-how") PLUS Canadian (resources and Canuck know-how) PLUS Mexican, Central American and South American resources and importantly--LABOR.First however, a period of adjustment and relative pain for those unprepared. Behold "Plan B". Voyager (04/20/01; 09:41:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 52255) (No Subject) Sir FOA Please define: Gold Bug Mr Gresham (04/20/01; 09:38:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 52254) FOA Amazing walks! All I could think as I was printing them out to take with me yesterday was, "This guy works HARD!" I hope the satisfaction is full for you. Somehow, it seems right that wealth and wisdom be linked hand in hand, unlike the madness about in these times. Thank you."Wisdom is the principal thing; therefore get wisdom and with all thy getting get understanding." Proverbs 4:7 Chris Powell (04/20/01; 09:37:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 52253) Fed minutes reveal ESF secretly leases U.S. gold http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/733 This is confirmation of what the TreasuryDepartment has been steadfastly denying.http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/733To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Trail Guide (04/20/01; 09:28:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 52252) Notes ET and Elwood:I'll try and address your points next (full day today, don't know if I can?)Randy:Thanks for your efforts, both on and off stage (smile)Chris of GATA:Oh boy! That one's out of the bag! Now we can do some real discussion about what's ahead!ALL:You people better read MK's news letter. Make's you smarter!Search Engine:After all that Centennial has done to build and maintain this hall,,,,, a search engine should be made avaliable to clients of CPM only or, by extension in return for doing business. Perhaps password based? After all, buying gold from CPM at these levels is like paying them a free fee for an outstanding venue, yes? IMHOthanksTrailGuide ET (04/20/01; 08:42:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 52251) Elwood Hey Elwood - always nice to hear your thoughts! You write;"How is this system better (or even different) than what we have today?"Excellent question! Of course, it would be "just another" fiat scheme with the same results as this one, the guy who works is plundered through fraud by those with the franchise to create money from nothing. I'm sure we can do without this in today's "modern" world, ANOTHER's contention given due consideration. I think it's becoming obvious which parties will benefit from this "arrangement" and which won't.""For the better part of human existence, gold alone has served all of the best functions of tradable wealth. But assoon as we call it our money, human nature takes over. Yes, we can call it a stock or a bond, a piece of land or apainting, a car, boat or antique, but just don't label it as money." ------"But, sir, none of these things are gold. Is it not the *label* of money, but its *use* as money that makes a thingmoney? How can we officially deny the use of pencils for writing, yet still maintain the "free market value" ofpencils?"Yes - despite the volume of words, this simple point is left unaddressed. Thanks for your keen observations! Old Yeller (04/20/01; 08:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 52250) (No Subject) http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=41934&threadid=41934 Whoops,forgot the link. Old Yeller (04/20/01; 08:27:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 52249) Clinton may be gone,but the spin continues Let's see,we have an imaginary surplus,let's borrow some money so we can finance tax cuts for the American public as we balance the budget from their Social Security contributions.Meanwhile,we must restart the capital gains windfall machine,or else falling revenues from that source will eliminate our "surplus".What is going to be the result of this fiscal hocus-pocus ten or fifteen years down the road, as the boomers retire en masse.The next generation of taxpayers aren't going to be too impressed,two workers for every retiree and a Social Security fund full of IOU's from a group of healthy robust senior citizens who are continually pushing up life expectancies. auspec (04/20/01; 08:26:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 52248) Treasure Hunt Not Hike! FOA Thank you once again, Sir FOA, for your reply msg#65. I am a bit out of breath, but would feel somewhat remiss if I didn't share a few of the treasures gleaned along that Treasure Hunt.Q- What advantage would it be to the Power Elite to destroy the dollar?A- ----Wrong context. What advantage does the Power Elite gain by expending assets to save an already failed currency? Better to do what major players have done for centuries and are doing now, buy gold and evolve your power base to use the next reserve.-------Comment: The plug will be pulled to let out the stagnant water. That context clears up much, thanks."Political styling"-- That's great. Wouldn't think someone would be able to "out Washington" our Washington, but there it is clear as a bell. Yes, many enemies have been made over an extended period of time. The diversity of the EU can now be clearly seen as an ASSET en route to globalization."US and London" connection? Not much changes with these guys, no? Just like our departed wjc: "...up until the last minute of the last day." Clock is ticking."ECB and BIS" vs US and London????? Man is it hard to identify the players and whose side they are on in this murkiness. What the hell happened to 'shirts and skins'? The BIS is the only one that is really hard to figure out actually. At least for me, as they SEEM to be going in 2 directions.In regards to the gold flow in "repatriation payments"--- Are you speaking of the "hostage gold" the US has kept in "safekeeping" for our allies since WW11, the "earmarked" gold? That is quite the perspective, hopefully one of many knowledgable participants on this site can expound on this a bit. "we'll only give your gold back if you act according to our wishes."You stated "When most of the players that styled the Euro decide to swing even 1/2 support toward that new money, the exchange rate for our dollar will plunge to its true worth!" The word "players" is very specific here as opposed to "countries". I am going to take that literally, thank you!You stated "We must not confuse a currency's 'total demise' or 'falling out of use' with a 'loss of identity'." You have stated similarly in relation to South American currencies continuing use but at hyper levels. The clarity of an "identity crisis" helps a lot. The banana goes splitzophrenic.Q-- At $30,000 POG the US as we know it will be no more, agreed? I am specifically speaking in regards to the US and our freedoms as well as lifestyle, as opposed the the USDollar. Answer is likely the same?OK, so we can't play the war card to prevent the hyper, only for distracting from other embarrasments. Thanks.Status quo? Answer "--We have not been there in our life times {smile}--" That takes a bit of thought, guess it means we've had nothing but turmoil for many years. "Nobody knows the troubles I've seen..."Anyway, the hike {hunt} was exhilarating and the 'clearing' is now in better view dead ahead. Thank you greatly!auspec{tacularhunt} Peter Asher (04/20/01; 07:51:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 52247) Search Function Saxulum @ HBM Ditto Belgian (04/20/01; 07:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 52246) Bananas Is "Gold" and its future, only dollar-related ? Are the world's rulers (the have dollars) exchanging their Epo-Dollars for physical Gold ? Are they imitating all previous Conquistadores in their retreat from collapsing colonies ?Are we experiencing a modern and subtile variation of ordinarry plunder ? Is this a clandestine re-colonisation of the Eldorado ? The modest cicumstancial evidence + house of cards logic, is strongly suggesting, that it is happening now !I can't answer Auspec's question on comparable figures for the EMU. The 12-fragmentation is not yet providing such statistics. But, what difference does it make ?The EMU has one major advantage with its "recycling" tool, called Taxes. That viscious circle of increasing Welfare and Taxes. Each time, money is expanding...it is partly compensated with higher Tax-income. As to such extend that the bulk of private savings equals national debt. These savings are internally re-mobilized for further moneycreation...welfare...taxincome. This spinning wheel is the fundamental difference between the universal dollar and the Euro. That's why dollar holders are the first ones who will move into physical gold. European individuals are trapped into the above euro-recycling, and therefore not interested in gold as protection. It will depend on the amount of noise that a sliding dollar-banana will produce, to make europeans decide to jump into gold.European debt-enslavement is a more benign cancer than the open and universal dollar-one.The same reasonning is possible true for the japanese. Because they have these same strong internal cohesion, with the exception of being the largest single holder of dollar paper. That's why we would like to hear some more news from that gentlemen Hashimoto.Are the Rockefellars, Bilderbergs and so on...Socialists ?The Euro is an undisciplined social currency. It is the conversion result of 12 nations that decided to gain weight and counterbalance as a unified continent. Maybe a bit premature, but I see it as a transitionnal phase for smoother "global change" on fiat...debt...trade.The future phases in Gold Revaluation will indicate how that Change will unfold. Trail mentionned : "saving debt at all cost"...*debt defaulting is destruction of fiat*...* bid for gold and it will soar*. These cancers will have to be faced and overcomed. I see the Euro as a temporary bridge to achieve the above goals. And not as a dollar-destroyer but rather a sympathetic alternative or usefull idiot. The Invisible Hand (04/20/01; 07:22:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52245) Dollar will go bananas after a period of europarity, says Argentinian Economy Minister http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1287000/1287438.stm From the article…Euro peg The (Argentinian) economy minister (Mr Cavallo} also defended his proposal to broaden the peso's peg to the dollar to include the euro. He said the dollar and euro would eventually hit parity, which is when the peso would be tied to an average value of the two creating greater "stability" for the currency. "We will not consider any other plan," he said without making any predictions when it would occur. The peso's peg to the dollar was introduced by Mr Cavallo in 1991 and ended years of hyperinflation but has caused Argentina economic difficulties because of the US currency's strength. "The economy that might not be able to live with the strong dollar is the US," said Mr Cavallo, "The risk of recession is there and that is why the Fed has cut rates. The dollar will become weak." Mr Cavallo was speaking to journalists in London ahead of a Group of Thirty meeting, which brings together policy makers and financial institutions from around the world. Hill Billy Mitchell (04/20/01; 06:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 52244) Saxulum^ @ # 52242 Yes!!!!!!!!!!!We want search engine.We want search engine.We want search engine.VRHBMPS: I will pay my fair share. LeSin (04/20/01; 06:12:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 52243) @ BRAVO for Straight Talk & Simple CLARITY - Thanks to FOA!!!!! On The Gold Trail - Exceptional Hike- Now Nearing the Clearing Bravo for Clarity and Direct Statements of Clarity.Not too soon, I must say. Thank You "S" Saxulum^ (04/20/01; 05:57:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 52242) Forum search machine? Dear Michel and/or Randy,AllThis forum has grown over the years to such a unique treasure trunk, filled with pearls (or should I say nuggets) of wisdom on all kind of gold related topics, that, at this time, a good SEARCH possibility in the archives could make it IMHO to one of the best global info sources on gold related topics.Imagine that, with simply pushing the search button, we could find all info, links and opinions ever expressed on this forum on keywords like "Mundell" or "Harmony" or "whatever". It would also help a lot of part-time lurkers, hesitant to share their knowledge, because they don't know if it was already recently discussed.I've no idea however if such a "golden improvement" can be easily accomplished, and even less about how much gold will flow out of the castle to make this work.I'm willing however, in case such implementation would take to large of a bite out of the castle's gold holdings, to pledge a donation towards achieving such goal!I'm pretty sure I'm not alone in this. So, if Randy permits :-), let me be the TownCrier for one time and ask all active and passive visitors of this forum:HEAR, HEAR….***Do you feel a search facility for the archives would greatly enhance your use of this forum?****** If so, are you willing to make a one time donation, should costs exceed what MK considers a fair amount for upgrading this forum?***Then step forward and S P E A K !---Thank you all so much for being here (fascilitating, sharing or currently just reading) tg (04/20/01; 03:35:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 52241) (No Subject) http://www.newaus.com.au/econ227usconds.html from the link above"Credit has much in common with a house flooded by burst water pipes. Even though the water is turned off it will still take time to drain the remaining water out of the structure and dry the place out. In other words, there is a time element. Nevertheless, even if credit is still expanding a shrinking cash base will eventually end it and bring on a credit crunch. And as I have explained before, real forces eventually move to burst the boom, no matter what happens to M1 or any other monetary measure" Black Blade (04/20/01; 03:12:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 52240) Futures Dropping Fast http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm US Market futures indices are all in negative territory. Markets from Asia to Europe are also negative. Euro is gaining on the USD index. One downside is that lease rates for PMs are tumbling. YGM (04/20/01; 03:00:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 52239) "A Toast To Those Who Sit At The Table Round" Especially M. K. & Randy...... PRELUDESo come, good men who toil and tire,Who smoke and sip the kindly cup,Ring round about the tavern fireEre yet you drink your liquor up;And hear my simple songs of earth,Of youth and truth and living things;Of poverty and proper mirth,Of rags and rich imaginings;Of cock-a-hoop, blue-heavened days,Of hearts elate and eager breath,Of wonder, worship, pity, praise,Of sorrow, sacrifice and death;Of lusting laughter, passion, pain,Of lights that lure and dreams that thrall...And if a golden word I gain,Oh, kindly folks, God save you all!And if you shake your heads in blame...Good friends, God love you all the same. ***Prelude from 'Robert Service' "Ballads of a Bohemian" YGM (04/20/01; 02:42:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 52238) Leigh....... Howdy....... My goodness we must be on the same wave length...I'm away for wks/months and when I drop in I see I'm still remembered. I'm humbled to say the least. I've been lurking also but only for a few days, and what a wonderful surpriseto read the words of Another after so long. (not that FOA our own 'Trail Guide' doesn't keep me coming back for more) This is still my all time favourite place too. Glad you're still here......YGM "buys" his Gold these days, it's a hell of alot cheaper and way less stressful than mining it....Take care Leigh (and all you other followers of provocativethinking)....Best Regards....KenPS: FWIW Column.....Somebody thinks Silver is going to shine again as a Vancouver based company is buying out the creditors of the old United Keno Hill mine here in the Yukon and going to spend a few million in the process. Remember UKH produced 200 mill/oz and 25 mill/defined oz are said to remain. Maybe they (new guys) see the writing on the wall? Now back to lurker status.......YGM. Black Blade (04/20/01; 01:51:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 52237) Gold price seen falling in 2001 http://news.24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1013149,00.html Snippit:London - Global financial and economic changes mean the dollar price of gold is likely to fall over the course of this year, industry consultants Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) said on Thursday.Black Blade: The GFMS apologists for the Bullion Bankers and hedgers is at it again. They don't provide much of a coherent argument. Demand still outstrips supply by a wide margin. They don't have much of a successful track record on predictions either. Black Blade (04/20/01; 01:19:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 52236) Calif. calls for 18-month cap on natgas prices http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010419/n19541340.html SACRAMENTO, Calif., April 19 (Reuters) - The California State Assembly on Thursday passed a resolution calling on the federal government to impose an 18-month price cap on natural gas imports, currently the highest priced gas in the country.Black Blade: A wonderful idea, and when NG producers refuse to sell to California, they can burn a few Redwoods instead. One reason CA prices are higher is because of the risk of not getting paid for past deliveries (as well as current and future deliveries), and another is the CA tariff on NG imported to CA. They simply didn't think things out did they? "…and they danced, sang, and played all summer…" Black Blade (04/20/01; 01:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 52235) Energy Secretary Abraham Warns of Energy-Related Recession in World Energy Magazine http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010419/0366.html Snippit:HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 19, 2001--Noting America's last three recessions have been tied to rising energy prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham predicts America's energy crisis may worsen and cause serious economic damage. Writing in the new issue of World Energy® magazine, Abraham says a growing imbalance between America's energy supply and increasing demand for crude oil, natural gas and electricity ``is already having a negative effect'' on the economy.Black Blade: Need I say more? Black Blade (04/20/01; 00:27:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 52234) Energy Crisis,the Economy, and the Coming recession The Wall Street crowd is coming around to the realization that energy is a big part of the economy. The Bull Market and booming economy of the last few years has been fueled by an abundance of "cheap energy." Those days are past and as many utility rate payers are beginning to realize, life without energy and high utility rates are somewhat uncomfortable. This coming summer may prove to be the trigger that cracks the economy. Summer natural gas demand for electricity will rival or surpass the traditional winter peak. Add to this that storage levels are at record lows and that in itself would lead even the most jaded skeptic to worry about the availability of energy for next winter. Another layer of concern is that about 95% of all new power generating plants coming on line over the next several years are designed to operate on natural gas. Exploration and production has increased, however, we are still falling behind last year's production by 2.7% because the well known production areas have already been exploited and we are forced to look in areas that are not likely to be as productive. Add to this the increased demand for natural gas and other natural resources. The industry is till recovering from a decade of price instability and a lack of exploration and production capability. Another problem is the restrictive environmental and land-use policies that limit exploration and production, and pipeline construction. Without a definitive energy policy we can expect much higher utility rates for the next several years and this ultimately will be a cost borne by the consumer. The costs of manufactured good will also rise as a result and these costs will be passed along as well. In short, a recession of epic proportions is on the horizon. Could this be the reason for the Feds recent unannounced rate cuts? Next quarter's stock market earnings reports could make the current quarter's look stellar in comparison. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Division of Professional Affairs has made available some interesting statistics. In 1999 there were only 20,770 oil and gas well completions in the US. However, during the period of 1980 to 1985, between 70,000 and 85,000 oil and gas wells were drill per year. The National Petroleum Council (NPC) in a 1999 report concluded that the most productive areas for major discoveries are on public lands in the Rocky Mountain sedimentary basins, offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska north slope, Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Access to most of these areas are severely restricted. It probably doesn't really matter though as the number of drill rigs working on a daily basis has fallen from over 4000 in 1982 to under 1000 today. So in short grab a few blankets, get out your old scout manuals, and prepare to live like our fellow men and women in the Third World. Today's stock investors had better enjoy the rally while they can. This could be it for quite a while. We simply don't have the capacity to fuel the economy with cheap energy. The dream of the "New Economy" will be shattered when people realize that it requires a substantial amount of energy. Currently a new server farm is being built every week on average. The average server farm requires as much energy as 180,000 homes. There is also the decaying (aging) energy grid. Few communities are willing to allow new construction of power plants, pipelines, and transmission lines. This is the case in the state of California, where along with a botched deregulation scheme, there hasn't been a new power plant built in over 12 years. Silicon Valley now must contend with rolling blackouts and that cuts into the bottom line of "New Economy" companies. Mining is an energy intensive industry and here too we see mine closures and the prospect of many more on the horizon. This situation cannot continue without some serious detriment to the economy. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis and we are now in an energy crisis. If history teaches anything, an inflationary recession is coming. Now is a good time to buy gold and silver as portfolio insurance as history also teaches that precious metals have saved many from the ravages of economic uncertainty.- Black Blade ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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