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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/20/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Peter Asher
(10/20/00; 23:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39544)
Another Post on Stranger's fence posts
http://www.peterasher.com/
OK, I'm pulling rank with 50+ years of wood craft, boat building and residential design and construction.
Use Pressure treated 4X4, not "Outdoor-wood" which is dipped, but the deep treated with the penetrating embossing on it. If 8' is longer then you need, cut 14' or 12' in half and put factory treated end in ground. Throw 4" of drain rock in hole first, then tamp post in on top.
Dig hole with hand held post hole digger, If you hit a rock it wont lift use a long crow or wrecking bar and a sledge to break. If you don't dig below frost line you can get frost heaves but that may not matter to you. For stability scoop out enough dirt around the top for half a 90# bag of premix concrete per post. (Brace for three days if soil is soft) Finally cut a four-way bevel on the top of each post and brush on some heavy duty, (green) "woodlast" (For drainage and aesthetics)
This is the least expensive and longest lasting way to do it. You will have sold your Gold for 3K/oz. long before those posts rot!
R Powell, re crankcase oil treatment. I hope the EPA doesn't read the Forum!
tg
(10/20/00; 23:25:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39543)
RossL, Aristotle
don't get me wrong, I have no intention of investing in the property market at the moment, in which i have sold all but few of my properties.
All i am saying is that if the hyperflation scenario which Trailguide expouses (in which he also seems to think that realestate will appreciate much in value), then a leveraged property play with FIXED interest is a better play than gold.
I personally tend to agree with Travellers thoughts on a deflationary enviroment where realestate values will tumble.
I hope i'm making myself clear, your replies dont seem to be consistent with what i'm trying to say
Camel
(10/20/00; 22:47:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 39542)
Fence
Stranger; I have been a carpenter for 25 years and built dozens of fences and decks. It would be crazy for you to sink posts 3 feet deep for a four foot high fence. The main thing to worry about is the posts rotting in the ground. Just put a couple of coats of polyurathane on the part that goes in the ground and it should be O.K for many years.
Farfel
(10/20/00; 22:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39541)
Final Point re: Stock Market
Although there are many who debate whether Democrats or Republicans would be better for gold or the stock market, my feeling is there is absolutely no difference.
Both parties are shades of the same color where Wall Street is concerned, they are both bought owned and paid for by the bullion banks, so in fact, if Bush gets his way and can put Social Security into the stock market, well, that will be more fuel for the bubble, more paper fuel for shorting gold.
That is why I think Ralph Nader is the best choice, simply because he is the only one who will stand up to the corporations and Wall Street manipulators. Moreover, although he is a green environmentalist who is probably not in love with certain mining companies (and who can blame him), nevertheless, I think if the man understood how gold itself represented the main sword in the fight against Wall Street corruption, or if he understood how a rising gold price could bury some of the most venal, offensive, environmentally hazardous, overhedged gold companies (you know who they are) then he might develop a fast fondness for the metal. Why he might just want to send it through the roof, bury some corrupt giant gold hedgers, and save the lightly hedged little miners. After all, Ralph has always been for the little guy in America, against the big corporate bullies.
Thanks
F*
Farfel
(10/20/00; 22:23:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 39540)
@R POWELL re: S & P and Stock Market
Yes, I would be interested in finding the COT info on S & P futures, my computer keeps giving me an error when I go to the CFTC website.
This past month has been outstanding for me, a huge, huge gain thanks to IBM, and several other choice overvalued tech firms, and I would have done much better except for Sun Micro and the gang pulling the co-ordinated ramp job on the market. But the net result was very positive for me.
The reasons I believe the market surge was a co-ordinated ramp job are as follows:
1) The market opened up with the Dow down some 450 points, of which almost 200 points consisted of IBM's drop, so in reality, the rest of the market was only down 250 points, and that is really not much considering we are around DOW 10,000.
2) CNBC sounded the alarm, acting as though it were a crash in the making, but again, DOW down 250 points (excluding IBM) is far far far from being a crash. That is no more than a bad day in the market.
3) The opening dump only lasted at most 15 minutes, maybe not even that long. Then immediately the market began to move up, forcefully and with almost no equivocation.
4) Now as you know, it is very difficult to get a consensus on anything in life, there are huge divergences of opinion. So if the market were moving back up solely on its own accord without any concerted manipulations, then at some point, conservative institutions/investors who were nervous about the market, should have begun selling vigorously into the rise. As such you would think that other big institutions could have caused at least a 100 point retrace against the rise. That did NOT happen, instead we saw a slow steady relentless rise with small little 10-20 point down-blips until the averages moved into positive territory. From that pattern, one can only conclude that the really big players were involved in a concerted move to squeeze the shorts and buy the market, without any fear or doubt as to where it would ultimately settle, knowing full well that they had the power to do it, knowing full well all the big players involved in pushing the market back upward, knowing full well that they had the government's Mr. Fisher acting as their helpful backstop.
5) Given that over the past two weeks, the market consisted of one bearish key reversal after another, then it is impossible to imagine that investors would believe with full conviction that the market could go straight back up.
A normal market would have seen at least one bearish key reversal on the way back up, maybe even two or three. BUT that did not happen, the market just kept moving up like a determined marathon runner, certain and sure.
6) Then while all the tumult is occuring, we get Sun Micro's "accidental" pre-release of earnings, about as accidental as Clinton's pentrations of Lewinsky. The SUN announcement served to encourage small investors to get on the institutional ramp-up bandwagon, since one of the major sources of market nervousness had been removed. After all, given the poor IBM results, poor MSFT results, poor DELL results, poor INTEL results, many investors were very nervous about SUN's after market report, especially given its super-bloated PE. As most people know, SUN has strong ties to the Clinton government and has been a major instigator/witness in the government's attack on Microsoft. So again, I categorically believe the SUN release was known to all institutions participating in the ramp-up job, and no doubt was co-ordinated by the Clinton government.
7) Finally we have the good old IBM factor, Lou Gerstner, another one of Clinton's most loyal good buddies. The whole time the ramp up job is occurring, IBM refuses to join the party. Why? So as to suggest to contrarian investors/shorts that maybe, just maybe the ramp up job is NOT real, that there might be another bearish key reversal at any point in time. After all, if most techs are ramping up, then why is IBM sitting in the basement? Answer: to scam shorts into believing a bearish key reversal might be imminent at any moment, and haul them in to short the market along its retrace.
That's my case, sir, and if the forementioned evidence were presented in a courtroom, then I believe that SUN, IBM, the government, and the Wall Street institutions would be found guilty beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Let's face facts, there is simply no doubt that this stock market bubble is the result of years of intervention, manipulation, cronyism, and moral hazard. Markets do NOT get this way left to their own devices, investors do NOT put their house equity into the market or max out credit cards without the assistance of a government that has conditioned them to believe that stock investment is completely NO-RISK.
Given these facts, then only the most naive Pollyanna would believe that this week's stunning market ramp-job occurred spontaneously without any pre-conceived orchestration.
Thanks
F*
TheStranger
(10/20/00; 21:41:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39539)
Cavan Man, Java Man and R. Powell
Thanks for all the help. I am going to use a translucent deck stain as it turns out. But I am afraid I will be digging the holes by hand. My property is glacial moraine which is full of stones that I fear would give an auger fits. As it happens, though, I only need six holes. The fence is a short one.
My new Austrian Philharmonic arrived today. What a beautiful piece of work it is. This fence will help me protect it!
Aristotle
(10/20/00; 21:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39538)
SteveH (msg#39534)
----- "We are writing to urge that Congress pass ... a free-standing bill before the end of this legislative session," Greenspan and Summers said. "It is important that we not miss this opportunity."-----
It carries the distinct ring that time is of the essence.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
R Powell
(10/20/00; 21:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39537)
Painting fences
It's hard to paint pressure-treated lumber but stain works just fine. I paint my retaining walls, made of pressure-treated landscape timbers, every time I change the oil in either of our trucks. Works great, looks good, greatly enhances the life of the timbers, discourages bugs of all kinds and gets rid of the used motor oil. Also, the paint brush never needs cleaning and never dries out, just remember to keep quests from sitting on them until dry. Good luck with it. If you do it yourself, you'll appreciate it all the more when it's done, both because it IS done and because YOU did it! Have fun Rich
SteveH
(10/20/00; 21:20:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39536)
From the farside
http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm
Incredible.
Supports ORO's observations. Way to go ORO. You da Geek (your own words, mind you (smile)).
justamereBear
(10/20/00; 21:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39535)
Nickel 62 39489
Along the lines of "plagerism is the sincerest form of flattery" I copied it. It is a keeper.
To add to that, I am not much in favor of encouraging long jokes, more encouraging one liners, so the lengthy one that makes the cut is good. But then who ever said I had a representative sense of humor, or for that matter, any thing else?
SteveH
(10/20/00; 21:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 39534)
From the farside
www.kitco.com
repost:
Date: Fri Oct 20 2000 22:56
sharefin (From the far side) ID#284255:
Copyright © 2000 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@All - hey, how'd we miss this one today ?
( Humbug ) Oct 20, 21:43
I think all foreigners had better read this one - we are about to see a very large wool rug pulled over all of our eyes. Would others please comment on what this all might mean ?
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers Friday urged Congress to act this year on legislation that would simplify the treatment of derivatives contracts in the event of the bankruptcy of a major financial company. In a letter sent to House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, Greenspan and Summers said the bill would help reduce the impact of the failure of any one financial institution on the stability of the broader financial system. "We believe this is a rare opportunity for the government to take an important tangible step to mitigate systemic risk and improve the integrity of our financial system," they said. Derivatives are investments whose values are derived from an underlying financial asset, rate or index. They are widely traded among major banks, broker-dealers and other financial companies to manage and control complex business risks. The legislation aims to allow the speedy resolution of derivatives contracts held by a bankrupt financial firm rather than having them tied up in bankruptcy court, where delay could spread the firm"s problems to others involved in the deals. Among other things, it would permit the "netting" -- or offsetting -- of all the derivatives contracts between a bankrupt financial firm and a counterparty to quickly arrive at a single outstanding claim. "It would reduce the likelihood that incidents such as the near-collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in September 1998 would pose a broader threat to our financial system," Summers and Greenspan said. The effort has near-universal support in Congress, but has become ensnarled in controversy surrounding a broader overhaul of U.S. consumer bankruptcy laws. The House has already passed the broader bankruptcy bill, which contains the derivatives provisions, and the Senate may follow suit next week. But the White House has threatened a veto, making it unlikely to be enacted this year. However, the derivatives measure was also introduced as a separate bill earlier this year, and supporters believe that vehicle may now represent its best chance. "We are writing to urge that Congress pass ... a free-standing bill before the end of this legislative session," Greenspan and Summers said. "It is important that we not miss this opportunity." ^
JavaMan
(10/20/00; 20:57:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39533)
Cavan Man, are we off topic or what?!!!
Yes indeed, once your committed to paint, your committed. I remember driving from Pennsylvania south on rt. 80 to Washington DC (as I mention below) and seeing a horse farm that had literally miles and miles of white plank fence. It had to be a year round job to paint it! Cedar turns grey with age due to ultra violet rays from the sun but it will last long. I built a 900 sq foot deck out of cedar. I don't think I would spend the bucks for it for a fence.
RE: your earlier post...
While the poem was beautiful and tends to take me back in time to rather unpleasant memories, you're statement on Chilean wine interests me as I like to think I have some experience in this area. In the late 80s, I used to travel to Washington DC (although it was highly illegal to do so) as they had very competitive prices compared to Pennsylvania, to purchase wine by the case.
I remember buying Casino Macul, a Chilean wine, considered the "poor man's Petrus" for about $4.95 a bottle. That's four dollars and ninety-five cents. Petrus is a French Merlot (I believe) that averages around $400 per bottle. Casino Macul was a great value at that price.
Anyway, I don't believe there is any wine, from anywhere, available at that price today. If there is, I don't think I would be interested in trying it. It seems to me, that even the mediocre wines from Chile and Australia have gone way up in price to $8 -$10 per bottle, and I don't understand why they have if our dollar is so strong.
Any thoughts?
Cavan Man
(10/20/00; 20:41:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39532)
JavaMan
Once you paint a fence (white, I presume), you have lifetime employment.
auspec
(10/20/00; 20:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39531)
RossL #39526/ Crudele Clintonesque Flip-Flop
"But I also agree that, without a doubt, no arm of the government should mess with the financial markets, including the Federal Reserve."
"Let the Fed rescue the market if it wants to. It beats the hell out of the alternative."
Crudele- Is this guy a financial economist or a politician?
These two statements were in the same article. This is a sharp guy, ordinarily, but he needs to make up his mind where he stands on this issue.
Shermag
(10/20/00; 20:24:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39530)
JavaMan, auspec, FOA
Javaman
Amadeus is a great movie, one of my all time favorites. Your post made me feel as a Solieri, in seeing you make such an insightful tribute to the "gunslingers" who post among us. You walk alongside them.
auspec
"The Battle is Over!!!!"
A post that is a work of art in its own right. Thanks for the great laugh! And I raise a mug of grog in salute to a great victory.
FOA
Thank you for the generous gift of your wisdom. As I read your latest Gold Trail submissiom, I gently rolled a Maple Leaf aroung in my hand, comforted by the weight of it.
Shermag
JavaMan
(10/20/00; 20:20:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 39529)
Fences...
T. Stranger, I seem to recall a tool you can rent called a groundhog that is a gas engine powered, 2 man device that drills a 10 or 16 inch diameter hole (your choice) in no time flat (unless you hit rock) that sure beats the alternatives.
Cavan Man, at the price of cedar, I'd go with pressure treated all 'round, especially since its probably going to be painted.
tg...sounds like some "western thinking" there...
Cavan Man
(10/20/00; 20:18:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39528)
USAGOLD
MK: You asked if one should study WB Yeats
Permit me please then, on a slow evening with a decent glass of Chilean merlot in hand (very inexpensive thanks to our monetary policy I might add) to offer something spectacular:
EPHEMERA
"Your eyes that once were never weary of mine
Are bowed in sorrow under their trembling lids
Because, our love is waning"
And then she said:
"Although our love is waning, let us stand
By the lone border of the lake once more,
Together in that hour of gentleness
When the poor tired child, Passion, falls asleep:
How far away the stars seem, and how far
Is our first kiss, and ah, how old my heart!"
Pensive, they paced along the faded leaves,
While slowly he whose hand held hers replied:
"Passion has often worn our wandering hearts."
The woods were 'round them, and the yellow leaves
Fell like faint meteors in the gloom, and once
A rabbit, old and lame limped down the path;
Autumn was over him: and now they stood
On the lone border of the lake once more:
Turning, he saw that she had thrust dead leaves
Gathered in silence, dewy as her eyes,
In bosum and hair.
"Ah, do not mourn," he said,
"That we are tired, for other loves await us:
Hate on and love through unrepining hours;
Before us lies eternity; our souls
Are love and a continual farewell."
W.B. Yeats
And now, we return to our regularly scheduled program....CM
Cavan Man
(10/20/00; 20:05:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39527)
Stranger
When sinking fence posts, always dig a minimum of two feet; three feet being preferable.
Rent a gas powered augur. It takes two to tango with this beast but your expense and trip to the rental store will be your greatest advantage.
I'd use treated lumber 4 X 4's for the posts and cedar for the balance of the job. Cedar OK for posts also.
Be sure the frame is visible to your side of the fence, not your neighbors'. This is proper fence etiquette here in the midwest.
RossL
(10/20/00; 20:02:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 39526)
Crudele
http://newyorkpost.com/business/13898.htm
Crudele has gone over the edge. Even the so-called 'conservatives' in the major media cannot see the forest for the trees.
R Powell
(10/20/00; 20:00:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39525)
S+P futures
Mr. Farfel. Sorry, I don't have the numbers you're looking for but today was options expiry on the index. I was contemplating a put on the mini-S+P. How do you see this? TIA for any opinion Rich
TheStranger
(10/20/00; 19:56:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 39524)
Java Man
Thanks. Three feet it is.
R Powell
(10/20/00; 19:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39523)
PPT
http://newyorkpost.com/business/13898.htm
Another article by John Crudele.
RossL
(10/20/00; 19:48:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39522)
tg
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
You better think through that one again. I hope your home loan is a fixed interest rate and NOT CALLABLE.
Aristotle
(10/20/00; 19:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39521)
tg -- your optimism is greater than mine, my friend.
Counterparty risk. Enough said.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
tg
(10/20/00; 19:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 39520)
RossL , here's the math
Lets make it easy,
$1- investment in gold U say will be 109 times more after 10 years,
that gives u $109-
$1 investment in property (with 90% leverage as is the norm today), allows u to have an investment worth $10- . U say will only be worth 12 times more after 10 years,
that gives u $120-
Easy when u think first.
auspec
(10/20/00; 19:16:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 39519)
CLHE-HoF- Forgotten Founder Black Blade
Let me not forget Sir Black Blade, a late FOUNDER who we couldn't get to leave the battle scene.
Leigh
(10/20/00; 19:12:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39518)
auspec
We love you!! You've brought fun to our group. (But you sure don't know how to treat the wenches. Spend the evening in a moat? No.) I nominate every one of your posts for the CHLE-HoF. Any seconds, fellow Founding Members? CoBra(too), where are you?
JavaMan
(10/20/00; 19:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39517)
T. Stranger...
I built a deck on the back of my house some time ago and went to the local municipality authorities to get a building permit as I was considered to be "in the city". In the process, I learned that digging deep 3-4 feet is only required in northern climes as winter causes the ground to rise when it freezes (2-3 feet deep) and settle in the spring causing all kinds of problems for structures if they have a shallow foundation. Govern yourself accordingly.
auspec
(10/20/00; 19:02:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39516)
CLHE-HoF - The Battle is Over!!!!
We stormed the Castle gates today with blood {and milk} curdling yells, and determined, fearless hearts............ and..................................................................................unfortunately, we were turned back, routed, and the battle was hopelessly lost. Man, that hot oil really hurts! They made us look like the pitiful knaves we are. We defeatedly returned to our encampment in the moors and sought consolation from our General, Peter the Grate. This {formerly} brilliant tactician regrouped us as we contemplated our next plan of attack. We suddenly noticed one of the children in the camp was wearing a WWJD bracelet and it suddenly dawned on us how to totally overcome our adversary with no more bloodshed whatsoever. WWJD, What Would James {CARVILLE} DO? That was the answer! We had, many times, previously marvelled at this Master and how he could totally ignore the FACTS at hand, and just create his own PERCEPTION. It is so simple, claim victory, and proceed accordingly!
Henceforth, any time the words CLHE-HoF are written or spoken the term VICTORIOUS is to also be used along side. This mantra is to be repeated ad nauseum until it is on the lips and minds of all. It is only a matter of time until the USAGOLD FORUM ESTABLISHMENT thinks this was all THEIR idea. I am thinking about writing a book about controlling the minds of the people with this type of technique and calling it 1284. What do you think?
Anyway, the CLHE-HoF is now ours and it is time for feasting and celebration. This knave is going to kick back a while, lick my wounds {minor} and a mug or so of grawg. Working on a late night rendezvous in the moat with a fair maiden that caught my eye today- serious frivolity. Will return to the intellectual p-nut gallery tomorrow and await the next insurrection.
CLHE-HoF is now reality, we are no longer just an advocacy group. Let history record the following brave men and women who gave up their dignity for this worthy cause;
Peter Asher- Our Grate One. The Founder's Founder.
Auspec- Could fight, chew gum, and tell jokes at the same time.
$hifty- No 2 men could pin this guy down!
Journeyman- Veteran of Local Wars.
Goldfan- Got fame but no gold.
CoBra{too}- MIA
Gandalf the White- Don't let this name deceive you!
Aristotle- Can fight as well as think!
Leigh- Led the men charging up the hill.
nummus aureus- Applied anesthetic to wounded aureuses.
Cavan Man- Fought valiantly against his own in-laws.
Trail Guide- We fell into in his footprints unfortunately.
Zenidea- Brought expertise from foreign campaigns.
Christopher- Slept through the battle.
justamereBear-This is no mere man we're talking about here.
Buena Fe- Fiercest of the inebriated, chaplain to the injured.
Nickel62-Joined just in time to lose a few body parts.
These are your worthy and honorable CLHE-HoF FOUNDERS, deal with it!
Farfel
(10/20/00; 18:40:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 39515)
Anybody have today's COT figures on the S & P futures...
Thanks
F*
RossL
(10/20/00; 18:33:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 39514)
tg - do the math
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
gold goes from 275 to 30000... thats x109
houses double, triple, then double again... thats x12
JavaMan
(10/20/00; 18:26:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 39513)
Inflation? the Euro, my Uro, and gee wizzing...
Inflation, the Euro, my Uro, and gee wizzing...
I have mentioned before that I share an office with a lady from Nepal. Today, she told me that she recently received an email from her home where they are expecting an increase of 20% to 100% in petroleum products. I know, I know, that's quite a range but I was up against a deadline by end of day today and didn't have time to pursue the conversation. I plan to look into this more next week to get more specifics.
About the Euro, someone said, "...For the problem is that the new currency will of course not be gold, a market-produced money, but a fiat paper issued in new currency units. So that the result of this new-Keynesian scheme will be inflationary fiat money, the issue of which is controlled by the regional Central Bank, i.e., by the new regional government.
This collaboration will then make it much easier for the Central Banks of the U.S., Britain, and Japan, to collaborate with the new European Central Bank, and thereby move rapidly toward the old Keynesian dream: a World Central Bank issuing a new world paper currency unit. And then, we would be truly off to the races with the world's Money and macro-economy totally at the mercy of a world-wide inflation, centrally controlled by self-proclaimed all-wise Keynesian masters."
If this is the case, the Euro doesn't sound like a solution to me. Out of the frying pan and into the fire???!!!
And speaking of Uro's, my Uruguayan 5 peso arrived in the mail today and it is one beautiful coin! Thank you, again, USAGold. "Clink" as Henri would say...and where is he anyway?
Most of us have probably seen the movie Amadeus. I've watched it several times as it has a special message to me. Without getting into too much of the plot, it's a tale, as told by a musician named Soliari (a fantastic performance by F. Murray Abraham) about his encounter with Amadeus Mozart. Yes, it was just a movie and subject to creative license by the writers, but there was an aspect of the film that was absolutely real - the relativity of talent.
Soliari was a good musician and had visions of going down in history for his work, but once he encountered Mozart, it became immediately apparent to him that his dreams would never become reality. Mozart was a genius and Soliari was...simply, talented. The irony of the movie was that Soliari had enough talent that he could appreciate Mozart's work...and that was his curse. He knew enough that he could appreciate the elegance and brilliance of Mozart's music but he would never, ever create anything of such magnificence.
Perhaps the movie, Amadeus, made such an impact on me because I see much of that same phenomenon in real life. Some people write computer programming code that could be considered works of art to one who can appreciate it. And before anyone jumps to conclusions, I see myself playing the part of the Soliari of computer programming, not the Mozart, though I believe I cope with my "lot in life" in a much more healthy way than Soliari of the movie. I have the good fortune to work with some truly brilliant people and often, I see work from them that simply causes me to take pause as Soliari would as he reviewed Mozart's sheet music.
And here is the point of this rambling...one observation I have made time and time again, is that these people of such rare ability, who can be found in any field of endeavor, don't seem to be aware of the fact that their everyday accomplishments are anything special. To them "it's obvious". But that which they see, instinctively(?) is unapproachable to most. We have such gifted people among us at USAGold...and I respectfully, and affectionately refer to them as gunslingers.
lamprey_65
(10/20/00; 18:17:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39512)
A Rally Destined to Fail?
Well, here it is, folks. No doubts that this rally just HAD to happen...too many people prepared to jump in on the October V-bottom for the big houses not to set the trap.
Today was options expiration for equities...couldn't have those puts in the money, now could we?
In the end the stock market is about psychology - not fundamentals. That's why technical trading works so well...it is a measurement of the CURRENT thinking of those with the larger money holdings. Fundamentals do tend to assert themselves eventually, but it is often like trying to sharply turn a huge luxury liner.
This rally (which blew out a large portion of short positions) fulfills the expectations of all those just itching for the next bull move in stocks...there's only one problem -- things really are "different" this time, but not in the way the bulls expect.
It's going to be quite a rude awakening when the NAZ finally settles at 1500 and the DOW is below 6000 with gold at $1000+ an ounce.
These things take time, however - patience my friends, patience.
Lamprey
John Doe
(10/20/00; 18:17:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39511)
(No Subject)
A few materials, precious metals among them, are too rare, useful, and inherently valuable to be used for something as ordinary and common as "money", and if these materials have to be made "worthless" to drive home that point, so be it.
TheStranger
(10/20/00; 18:14:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39510)
Question About Fence Posts
I am getting ready to build a picket fence (to protect my gold). It will be four feet tall. Does anybody know how deep the posts need to go? I don't want to dig down three feet if I don't have to, and I don't know who to ask. Thanks.
Go gold!
tg
(10/20/00; 17:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39509)
(No Subject)
If trailguides scenario of hyperinflation plays out and prices of assets like real estate are going to skyrocket, then i can't see any reason for buying gold ( only except that it may be a better performing asset). Why not just stay highly leveraged in a property investment and FIX the rate of interest for 10 years. You could leverage much more this way than you could by buying gold (at which time now, u cant buy on leverage). By the end of ten years u will have a great investment which u pay back the principal in very devalued dollars.
Trailguide also mentions that the US Fed will not induce a recession. Perhaps not, but the next recession will be by way of a loss in confidence, and no matter how low the fed reduces interest rates or pumps up the money supply, u cant force people to take risks if they have no confidence. (look at Japan)
Maybe as trailguide says, im walking forward looking back, and perhaps my understanding of events is not quite up to scratch. Maybe im just having a bad day and i just dont get it.
Maybe im right, got to trust my instincts and keep away from property until the sh.t hits the fan
nickel62
(10/20/00; 17:37:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 39508)
ORO we are all kindred spirits in the search for the truth about what is going on.
I think probably one of the things we all share her is a burning desire to actually know what is going on. Not many other people seem to share that interest. It has always surprised me but it is very true in almost all fields. That is what got me onto the Myers-Briggs types. I was certain that there was something unusual about those of us who felt compelled to find the answers.
On the other sites there really is not as much search for learning as there is here. It is often just a long ongoing food fight with a lot of information which happens to often be excellent.
SteveH
(10/20/00; 17:26:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39507)
Protecting Gold re(post):
WASHINGTON POST
For Democrats, Gun Issue Is Losing Its Fire
>From Friday, October 20
OnPolitics
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, October 20, 2000; Page A01
MONROEVILLE, Pa. The issue of guns-once seen as a potential winner for Democrats-is now threatening the party's prospects of keeping the White House and regaining control of Congress, according to strategists and officials with both major parties.
The problem for Democrats is that gun control is unpopular among many of the swing voters both campaigns are targeting in the final weeks of the campaign, particularly in battleground states-such as Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania-with a sizable bloc of hunters and other gun enthusiasts.
As a result, Vice President Gore has moderated his anti-gun rhetoric in recent weeks, going out of his way in the last two presidential debates to emphasize that he would not take guns away from sportsmen. And many House and Senate Democrats have found that gun control is not resonating in many key contests like other issues, such as prescription drugs.
The situation underscores the volatile politics of gun control this election. After the Columbine High School shootings a year and a half ago, anti-gun advocates had political momentum, but politicians and pollsters say the National Rifle Association and others appear to have had some success with the argument that more enforcement, not new laws, is what's needed.
"Watch Al Gore on guns and you can see the issue has not had the universal appeal some people had anticipated," said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (Va.), who chairs the House GOP's campaign arm and supports stricter gun laws. "It's not a national issue. It's a regional one."
Fueling the pro-gun forces has been a massive mobilization by the NRA under the banner of "Vote Freedom First," as the group has blanketed the airwaves and billboards in key states with the message that guns alone should be the deciding factor in this year's election.
In Pennsylvania, for example, which boasts the second-highest number of gun owners in the nation next to Texas, more than 1,000 NRA supporters jammed a hotel ballroom early Wednesday morning to attend a rally headlined by NRA President Charlton Heston.
The former movie star told audience members they were "the direct descendants of America's revolutionary heroes" by working to elect gun control opponents such as Republicans George W. Bush, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and House candidate Melissa Hart.
"They won their freedom with bullets so that we could defend our freedom with ballots," Heston told the crowd at Al Monzo's Palace Inn here. "That is the holy war which you in this room help wage and win. But instead of fighting the Redcoats, we're fighting the blue-blood elitists."
Several members of the audience said they were not only voting Republican this year, they were also volunteering on behalf of GOP candidates to make sure Congress does not take up gun control legislation next year. Last summer in the wake of Columbine, the House narrowly defeated a measure that would have imposed a three-day background check on firearms purchased at gun shows.
"I'm not a gun fanatic, I'm a constitutional fanatic," said Gibsonia resident Michael O'Block, who will be working the polls for Hart in her bid to succeed Rep. Ron Klink (D). Klink is challenging Santorum for his Senate seat.
Beth Wineland, a 29-year-old catering manager, said, "If Gore gets elected I'm going to be buying a gun as soon as I can, because I'm going to lose that right."
Heston attracted crowds of 5,000 each in Hershey, Pa., later that day and in Flint, Mich., on Tuesday, where union workers made up a sizable portion of the audience. Yesterday, he traveled to Virginia for three more rallies.
"You know, if Vice President Gore had the guts of a guppy," Heston said last night to the laughter of several hundred supporters at a Richmond hotel, "he would simply stand up and say, 'Look, I was wrong. . . . I pretended to be in favor of gun rights-I really am not.' But, of course, he's not going to do that."
The intensity of the NRA drive has thrown a wrench into AFL-CIO efforts to mobilize on behalf of Democratic candidates, especially in Michigan, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Washington. In Michigan, state Rep. Valde Garcia attended an NRA rally in the town of DeWitt, and he estimated that at least half the men in the audience wore United Auto Workers jackets. "This [gun control] is a real issue with these guys," he said.
Steve Rosenthal, political director of the AFL-CIO, said union members have been bringing their leaders leaflets from pro-gun groups telling members, "Defend your guns, defeat Al Gore." Labor leaders are now countering with a message delivered directly to members that "Al Gore doesn't want to take your gun away, but George Bush wants to take away your union."
Rosenthal contended that "the NRA stuff is so strong that is is not really credible." But key officials in the Gore campaign believe that it is a major reason for the erosion of Gore support in such states as Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, said Gore's decision to deemphasize gun control may be based on poll trends that show a reduction in the overall support for gun control, especially among men.
Gore had been an ardent gun control advocate during his primary fights with Bill Bradley. Bob Shrum, one of his media advisers, said gun control remains "a continuing issue" in the campaign. He denied that Gore has backed away, noting "in the second debate, we had a whole discussion on that."
In fact, in the second debate, Gore chose first to say that he and Bush "agree on some things" and that he "will not do anything to affect the rights of hunters or sportsmen."
He did refer to his support for closing a loophole allowing the unregulated sale of guns at gun shows, for restoration of the three-day waiting period and mandatory trigger locks, but he made no mention-as gun critics wanted-of a provision in a Bush-backed Texas law that allows people to carry concealed weapons while in such places as churches. Only when pressed did Gore refer to his support for requiring photo licensing for new gun purchasers.
Gore's shift has disappointed gun control advocates such as Cathie Kopecky, who served as the Million Mom March's coordinator for western Pennsylvania.
"I'm angry about it," said Kopecky. "Both presidential candidates are pretty silent on the issue. They're trying to say what both sides want to hear."
Last year, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Patrick J. Kennedy (R.I.) predicted his party would hang the gun issue around Republicans' "necks on Election Day," but in recent months House Democrats have also scaled back their legislative and rhetorical attacks.
Laura Nichols, spokeswoman for House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.), said Republicans have simply stymied the Democrats' attempts to force action on gun control.
There are some contests where Democrats are pressing the issue of gun control, including the Virginia and Florida Senate races. Handgun Control political director Joe Sudbay said this demonstrates "there's a big sea change in terms of how this issue is being debated and perceived."
But the issue of gun control is also being used to attack Democratic candidates in such states as Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Washington. Klink-who had voted consistently with the NRA until he backed the three-day gun show check last summer-said he's well aware he may now have to pay a political price.
"If you're not a 100 percent with them, they come at you from both sides," Klink said during a rally in his district Tuesday night. "In this state the gun issue has defeated a lot of people on the state and local level. It's a powerful issue, and there are a lot of single-issue voters here."
Edsall reported from Washington. Staff writers David S. Broder in Michigan and Robert H. Melton in Richmond contributed to this report.
(c) 2000 The Washington Post Company
nickel62
(10/20/00; 17:21:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39506)
Auspic thanks for the honor.
I was hoping you guys would notice. I am honored.
Oilman
(10/20/00; 17:15:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 39505)
ThaiGold -39464
I guess there will always be a conflict among the carps. Maybe Thaigold regards itself as a fully elightened carp. I doubt whethet the levity shown can allow any other conclusion. It is probably better that carps do not play in the pond of the sharks and the dolphins, because both sharks and dolphins eat carps. I guess ThaiGold is a pure and simple carp.
tg
(10/20/00; 16:41:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39504)
oro
enjoyed your detective work,
but perhaps i'm not smart enough to read between the lines. In plain english,(for the dummies like me)do u see realestate & stockmarkets spiraling downwards in your play of coming economic events.
Journeyman
(10/20/00; 16:33:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39503)
The first official mention of the "s" word on CNBC @ALL
~"I think stagflation is a little too strong a word. But we definitely see a cyclical upward trend in inflation. We see a dichotomy between manufacturing, which is in recession, and the rest of the economy. We expect about a 5% rate of increase in the economy this year. The consumer is obviously still there -- unemployment below 4%." -Kathleen Camilli, Chief Economist, Tucker Anthony, CNBC, Fri. October 20, 2000, ~6:15
Regards, j.
Mr Gresham
(10/20/00; 14:45:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39502)
Oro
"don't gee wiz me, think critically and look for holes in the reasoning"
Exactly. The best compliment to a thinker (lonely job) is to join in and advance the work. Only time and/or the experiential tools are our limits. Let us try harder to acquire both.
Oro's synthesis is two steps ahead of the commonplace offered around us, one step ahead of the best, IMO. In my case, a daring reach of conclusion usually captures my approval, but then I still ought to check what facts I can find.
The stuff about debt traps, and banks as an industry (both cooperatively and competitively) capturing certain markets, while pushing their own survival risk to the limit with the Greenspan put, is dramatic and worth further exploration. Modern day empire-builders. "How can they accomplish this?" "Will it work?" "Is this their goal?"
Sheesh -- a million and one Q's. But with this as Oro's starting point -- watching the strategy of Engulf and Devour -- you can see the possible game. You just won't get to read the book about it (except by Oro) for twenty years to come.
Giovanni Dioro
(10/20/00; 14:33:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 39501)
Coke's Earnings - Accounting Trix
Nine months ago back in January, Coca-Cola took a whopping $800 million charge against earnings. At the time this was treated as an exceptional charge and thus wasn't reported as their main earnings.
But what this did was it enabled the expenses for the quarters to come to be offset by this charge in January. In other words the charge made today's earnings look good (up 39%). Moreover, I think many who follow the stock are aware of this and today's reported earnings were no more than what was expected, thus the stock went lower today.
However, even though this gain in reported earnings didn't positively affect Coke's stock price, I do think this helped the market by lulling the common investor into complacency in seeing in the headlines that Coke's earnings were up 39% on last year's earnings which of course pre-dated that mammoth $800 million exceptional charge. The common investor is getting a false sense of security as things are not always what they appear to be.
Gold Trail Update
(10/20/00; 14:00:09MDT - Msg ID:39500)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Broken Tee
(10/20/00; 13:58:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39499)
Levity - Lamaze
The room was full of pregnant women and their partners, and the Lamaze class was in full swing. The instructor was teaching the women how to breathe properly, along with informing the men how to give the necessary assurances
at this stage of the plan.
The teacher then announced, "Ladies, exercise is good for you. Walking is especially beneficial. So gentlemen, it wouldn't hurt you to take the time to go walking with your partner!"
The room really got quiet and the men all looked at each other. Finally, one man raised his hand.
"Yes?" replied the teacher.
"Is it all right if she carries a golf bag?"
goldfan
(10/20/00; 13:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 39498)
Guru's
http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htm
Doug NOLAND writes the Credtit Bubble bulletin weekly at prudentbear.com. Howe writes I think at goldensextant.com. Both are brilliant, IMHO, but not as interesting and thorough as ORO.
Following is snip fromlink above, on yesterday's market, Oct 19.
The bulls called "bottom" yesterday and were going to try and buy them today regardless of anything in an all-out desperation jam. They had to, and they knew it because expiration is tomorrow (most index options go out in the morning at the open and individual equities at the close.) As a friend of mine says: "derivatives rule the world." They had to squeeze out as many of the Oct put holders as they could in hopes of floating this sinking ship a while longer. I think they failed. Reality does matter, and reality always wins out in the end no matter how much you try and fight it. The reality is that there are huge problems in these individual companies, the credit markets, currency markets, and the energy markets. Consequently, valuations are compressing to reflect these conditions as well as higher interest rates. It's a slow moving, relentless march that cannot be turned back, no matter how much one wants to fight it. Technicians out there will note that the NDX and SPX failed to break their downtrend lines today going back to the Sept 1st top. We'll see if they can gap them up over those lines tomorrow and jam this thing into wonderland one more time, but if they don't and we see selling for whatever reason... well, let's just say I wouldn't get caught long over the weekend...
transcribed by,
Goldfan
wolavka
(10/20/00; 12:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 39497)
Good day for gold
You may not agree but this was a positive move. Watch sunday nite.
Buena Fe
(10/20/00; 12:52:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 39496)
coyotee service
Slide that mug over here goldfan.......to the rim......oops......sorry guys, i don't mean to be wastefull.
Im noot as drunk as some tinkle peep i am.
goldfan
(10/20/00; 12:41:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39495)
Survival of the Fittest, CLHE-HoF forever!
Survival
A long time ago one of the shambling creatures, not so long down from the trees, called by the others Da' win because he always seemed to be lucky, found something sort of bright and shiny in a shallow stream bed. Picked it up and carried it away. Sat in the sun and bashed it around a bit with a rock. Found it would shape itself to his bashings, but not disintegrate. Left it then in the dirt by the cave door and forgot about it for a few weeks. One of the small ones running around came up to him with it one day, saying "what zis, what zis". He recognized the lump of stuff he'd found in the stream. Got a bit interested and sat down hammering it into some kind of shape with a hole in the middle. Hung it around his neck with a bit of rawhide from an old wolf he'd brained last year.
Well the story goes on, the lump of stuff was joined by others over many millenia and times. The shambling ones got to recognize that this stuff was not only golden and shiny, but also almost indestructible, and easy to make into interesting even magical shapes. It had in fact the property like the sun and their fires, of seeming magical. We now venerate old Da'win as the first to discover gold, and to see in it, the survival of the fittest of all the art materials, the currencies, the store of what we now call wealth, in fact, the origin of specie.
FWIW, in contribution to the mad CLHE-HoF endeavours
Goldfan
Buena Fe
(10/20/00; 12:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 39494)
CLHE-HoFAG responsibilities
auspec (10/20/00; 10:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 39485
...a portfolio of "grawg & faith" eh.......sounds like fun.....they both involve the Spirit! ;)
ORO (10/20/00; 12:03:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 39491)
Just a lowly geek trying to put it together.
......."The process then results in observations that are either conflicting or in agreement. The resolution of conflicting observations is my key to understanding and the clarifier of confusion, much of which I have inflicted on you with the hope of some people picking through the mess and pointing out flaws in analysis, theory or whatever"...........HAL, HAL.....or you all right, HAL?
Lov yah brother!
Cavan Man
(10/20/00; 12:19:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39493)
ORO 39481
ORO, I still give you the coveted Cavan Man "Five Pints" award for that one! Cheers
auspec
(10/20/00; 12:07:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39492)
Nickel62 post 39489
Good News- Great humor in that post, will share with spouse!
Bad News- You are now an official Founding Member of CLHE-HoFAG. You didn't mention our cause but we recognize a kindred spirit immediately. Welcome!
ORO
(10/20/00; 12:03:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 39491)
Just a lowly geek trying to put it together
Nickel62, Wiz, all,
Understand that I have been sitting within bank and financial market data published to the public for the past 3 years. From this and some readings in financial history and a 20 year interest in economics and monetary - political issues and a wee bit of personal exposure and contacts I have put together this picture, which I share with you on occasion.
My quick and dirty approach combines theory, speculative thinking, and determination of boundaries of the issues derived from their analysis and stretching the parameters to the absurd - which sets the possible range of results. The process then results in observations that are either conflicting or in agreement. The resolution of conflicting observations is my key to understanding and the clarifier of confusion, much of which I have inflicted on you with the hope of some people picking through the mess and pointing out flaws in analysis, theory or whatever. Aristotle and TrailGuide/FOA are very helpful.
Howe often looks in more fine detail and a more definitive manner into many of the issues and data I point out. Me hat's off ta' him, most excellent work.
So, don't gee wiz me, think critically and look for holes in the reasoning, since people in banking don't want to talk about any of this, nor do the few politicos who could understand this I get minimal feedback.
Thanks all
wolavka
(10/20/00; 11:41:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 39490)
ORO
Good insight, thanks
nickel62
(10/20/00; 11:33:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39489)
A little wisdom to brighten up your day!
NICKNAMES
> If Laura, Suzanne, Debra and Rose go out for lunch, they will call
> each other Laura, Suzanne, Debra and Rose.
>
> If Mike, Charlie, Bob and John go out, they will affectionately refer
> to each other as Fat Boy, Godzilla, Peanut-Head and Scrappy.
>
> EATING OUT
> When the bill arrives, Mike, Charlie, Bob and John will each
> throw in $20, even though it's only for $32.50. None of them will have
> anything smaller, and none will actually admit they want change back.
>
> When the girls get their bill, out come the pocket calculators.
>
> MONEY
> A man will pay $2 for a $1 item he needs.
>
> A woman will pay $1 for a $2 item that she doesn't need but
> it's on sale.
>
> BATHROOMS
> A man has six items in his bathroom: a toothbrush, shaving
> cream, razor, a bar of soap, and a towel from the Holiday Inn.
>
> The average number of items in the typical woman's bathroom is
> 337. A man would not be able to identify most of these items.
>
> ARGUMENTS
> A woman has the last word in any argument.
>
> Anything a man says after that is the beginning of a new argument.
>
> CATS
> Women love cats.
>
> Men say they love cats, but when women aren't looking, men
> kick cats.
>
> FUTURE
> A woman worries about the future until she gets a husband.
>
> A man never worries about the future until he gets a wife.
>
> SUCCESS
> A successful man is one who makes more money than his wife can
> spend.
>
> A successful woman is one who can find such a man.
>
> MARRIAGE
> A woman marries a man expecting he will change, but he doesn't.
>
> A man marries a woman expecting that she won't change and she
> does.
>
> DRESSING UP
> A woman will dress up to go shopping, water the plants, empty
> the garbage, answer the phone, read a book, and get the mail.
>
> A man will dress up for weddings and funerals.
>
> NATURAL
> Men wake up as good-looking as they went to bed.
>
> Women somehow deteriorate during the night.
>
> OFFSPRING
> Ah, children. A woman knows all about her children. She knows
> about dentist appointments and romances, best friends, favorite
> foods, secret fears and hopes and dreams.
>
> A man is vaguely aware of some short people living in the house.
>
> THOUGHT FOR THE DAY
> Any married man should forget his mistakes. There's no use in
> two people remembering the same thing
Gandalf the White
(10/20/00; 10:59:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 39488)
Who shall be the one to start asking for a SIR ORO separate SITE ?
SIR ORO ! You are tooooo good to not be a WIZARD !!
Should you not have YOUR own page like the FOA "Golden Trail" ?
<;-)
nickel62
(10/20/00; 10:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39487)
Thanks ORO I appreciate your very insightfull comments.
I do not know the Noland person you refer to? Is he a newletter writer with a publication that I could subscribe to? I wonder what your opinion is on whether or not the gold stock investors who have bought the unhedged and lightly hedged will survive the process if the sprinklers are turned on? Thanks again.
Buena Fe
(10/20/00; 10:31:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39486)
ORO (10/20/2000; 9:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 39481
Brilliant ORO just simply Brilliant!
"By the time this is well in process, the bankers will have the flames in close contact and will have the Fed turn on the sprinklers and liquify everything.
Noland, Richenbacher, Grant and others say they smell the smoke. So the Fed will be turning on the sprinklers once it gives up on putting out hot spots with its little CO2 cannister."
Smells like a good old fashioned Jubilee barbacue to Me!
auspec
(10/20/00; 10:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 39485)
Buena Fe - Lo siento/ post 39477
Sorry Hombre,
I know just enough Spanish, and other subjects, to be dangerous. Your Master will likely save the best for last once again. You are needed on both faith and grawg committees, thanks for serving!
Mr Gresham
(10/20/00; 10:11:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 39484)
Oro #39481
Damn! Standing on the shoelaces of a giant, I've just gotten a look over the edge of the table at the chessboard, and I think I can see some of the pieces on it.
I'll be carrying your extraordinary look at the Great Game with me today, to see if I can't get some of your perspective to rub off on me.
Mr Gresham
(10/20/00; 09:56:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 39483)
Peter and the WA
Fellow Knights:
Remember, Peter Asher got the WA spike to happen last year by hosting his backyard pajama party, so ya better go along with what he sez!
REVELATION
(10/20/00; 09:56:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39482)
YESTERDAY A POSTER ASKED
Which men would not prevail ??
I wrote:
"Man would not prevail !"
Answer: Man is part of the grand scheme of things to deceive as many as possible. Not intended to be
directed at anyone particular individual or group.
But, to all seekers out there. Gold is Gods money
and puts immediate value in ones hand. Not lies and
deception connected to paper who's value could
become worthless if a crisis did develop. Gold will
always have value, no matter what. Paper is paper,
and holds no value unless connected to a real
assets. U.S. dollars have very little asset backing.
The very disturbing part of all this, is they keep flooding
the world with more dollars and less and less gold to
back it up. Great concept and it's seems to be working
very well for now until people realize these dollars are
nothing more than paper with ink on them.
ORO
(10/20/2000; 9:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 39481)
Nickel62 - 'flation
The issue here is that there is a difference between the political weight of the various components of our economy. The Fed is first and foremost a steward of the banks. If you remember our various declarations on independence and the constitution, there is a "by the people for the people" statement in all. The Fed's founding was not accompanied by these kind of broad public statements but it is very obvious that it is the Federal Union of the banks "by the banks for the banks". The bank's profitable clients are the secondary constituents - and most of the public does not belong to this group. The reason for this is obvious, each $1 in personal income will have a corresponding $2.2 of business transactions and cash income/revenue and expenditure. Therefore, we are just lightweights in the game. Besides which, we are diffuse, where business is concentrated.
Why all this? Because long before we are in pain business will be in pain. It already is. Just look at Noland's spreads over at P Bear. Total US debt service load stands at about $2 trillion per year. Which requires that much in credit creation per year just to keep the system solvent and liquid. The Fed has been cutting it close since Volcker took office. The 1986 tax reform that took out the tax writeoff for non-mortgage personal debt nearly collapsed the economy despite heavy Fed support, aided by the BOJ and EU Central Banks. The Fed responded by injecting money to grow M1 by 35% over the 3 years after the adjustment to the new tax rules. During the adjustment - before the Fed acted, the S&Ls - sworn enemies of the banks - were set up for failure and destroyed together with the much maligned junk bond market - which became a Wall Street profit center once Wall Street's competitor, Drexel, was taken out and shot together with all of their partners and clients.
Today, banks would like to see money markets and the corporate bond markets go under so that they can get hold of businesses before prices shoot up and money as dollars becomes a losing proposition. For that purpose they lobbied successfully to have the business ownership restriction lifted and bankruptcy rules changed in their favor. I am certain that this was done in preparation for a credit squeeze on America, following the 20 year squeeze on the rest of the world. Which, in turn, followed a 10 year debt trap setup during the prior bank bailout period.
The businesses they want most are precious metals and telecom. Wall Street and its partners in London, Bazel and Frankfurt have taken over substantial chunks of the industry - such as 15% of Ashanti. But they still can't get the nice juicy chunks they really want. They will not get them because too few of them are leveraged that way. They will only gather a few more little miners to add to current ownership of Barrick (allways was a banker's mine). Banks wanted to take over oil, but have never gotten far in that arena because of oil's loud lobby and fierce independence - which also characterizes the precious metals people.
Telecom was set up for a debt trap, into which the maverick techies, inexperienced with the den of thieves, have walked right in. One year after extending and marketing unheard of levels of credit to these businesses, banks are letting them fail their debt by restricting the Fed's credit extension from keeping this group viable. However, the margin for error is very slim. The moment that these enterprises fall, if not before, the Fed will have to print up enough money to bail out the bankers, who have taken out dangerous positions in the derivative markets that are now putting them in too close proximity to the same industries they wanted to take over. Citi and National City seem to be the only big ones left without a disproportionate derivatives position. Citi is obviously using the bulk of its political muscle to climb to the top of the heap and stay there. Seems like they have turned on their oligarchy partners and are letting them rot in the same way that these old mobsters treat their clients, using the same tricks.
Chemical, after swallowing the old incompetent Chase, have adopted their name, and have swallowed them with their bacterial maningitis, which has now taken hold of the combined organization. They will now pick up Morgan as a protective move to become "really" too big to fail, but concentrating most of the "likely to fail" strategies under one roof. They will be bailed out when it is too late to save their clients and will be left weakened. Citi and the other likely survivors will pick at what's left. If things collapse too quickly, as they are likely to do, the margin of safety being so thin between the point where conditions in which clients are broken and the point where their bankers are hurt.
This will all occurr before the bulk of consumers, protected by Fannie Mae and banker's own interests in keeping this part of the market alive to absorb their mistakes (a.k.a. securitized debt), hurt too badly. The main point is that immediately after the telecom sector debt bites it's issuer's back end and we hear news of "restructuring" in the sector, the Fed should start printing up money like crazy in order to keep the new owners in the black. We will be monetizing bandwidth by 2002.
So the Fed should be lowering interest rates at that time; Price inflation or no. Remember that Jefferson and Jackson both warned of banks inflating and contracting the money supply in order to gain ownership of as much as they can. Today, they are again squeezing the world, but they themselves are too close to the brink and may not be able to accomplish their goal.
Remember that monetary deflation and price inflation can go hand in hand and exist concurrently. Without demand for dollars to repay debt, there is nearly no demand at all. Already the public has moved their funds to stock and real estate "money" balances and somewhat into bonds, and hold only 10% of their direct and indirect money substitutes in banks. Also they have moved checkables from regular bank accounts into money markets at more than equal allocations, moved savings into bond and equity income funds/direct holdings, in quantities much greater than their savings, and have waaaaay more outside of CDs than in them.
Though the broad public is always wrong in its speculation, it has enough voice today to herd its congress into changing the rules so that they are made "right" in what were mistaken speculative judgements. Their bankers are too leveraged to allow anything else.
The maximum banks can see in debtor failure and still survive is 14% of business and 9% of consumers at the upper limit, but more realistically, major banks would be in danger with half that level - at 7-10% of business and 3-5% of consumers. The hot technology corridors of Cal, Seattle/Redmond, Boston, Phoenix, Texas and the financial hot spots in New York and San Francisco will more than take care of that limit. By the time this is well in process, the bankers will have the flames in close contact and will have the Fed turn on the sprinklers and liquify everything.
Noland, Richenbacher, Grant and others say they smell the smoke. So the Fed will be turning on the sprinklers once it gives up on putting out hot spots with its little CO2 cannister.
auspec
(10/20/2000; 9:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39480)
Promise Keepers/CLHE-HoFAG
auspec (10/19/2000; 6:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39397)
CLHE-HoF/USAGOLD Siege-Day3
The siege continues, still no word from the{Ivory}Tower. They are certainly worthy, or possibly asleep. The intellectual CLHCs {Cerebral Left Hemisphere Compromised} are firmly entrenched to this point.
BREAKING NEWS!!!We have been mentioned by Zenidea. She is now numbered among us for not ignoring us. WE ALSO RECEIVED AN ENDORSEMENT FROM TRAIL GUIDE!!!! Victory is now certain, am planning on going after Hollywood later today.
Our faithful are rallying behind Peter Asher, our Rosa Parks, and we now estimate being in total charge of this formerly esteemed forum within days. Unless the elitists yield to our pleas we will have to storm the castle and take ALL the plunder {Uruguayan Pesos} from these Robber Barons. Their Unfairness Doctrine, giving quotas and preferential treatment to the intellectuals and humor-impaired, is a crumbling Manifesto. The brainy have their HoF, we are only asking for "what is rightfully ours", our CLHF-HoF for the clever/Conscripted. This site isn't like the U.S. elections, as our kind host actually listens to our votes here {I think}.
To date we have used the weapons of blackmail and pestering on the anti-CLHE-HoFs, w/o any visible success. They need to know we have many more aces up our arses {sorry Peter}, begging comes to mind, and we will not hesitate to use them. Hint: I know the guy who INVENTED the internet. Recognition of CLHE-HoF will bring quality of life to the USAGOLD Forum. We're all going to be independently wealthy {like MK} soon- might as well start learning how to enjoy life more NOW! Who else will join our ranks, see your name in lights,& learn to laugh your troubles and enemies away?
TownCrier- What say ye to your fellow countrypersons- Peter the Great, Auspec, $hifty,Journeyman, Goldfan, Cb2, Gandalf the White, Aristotle, Leigh, nummus aureus, Cavan Man, Zenidea, and Trail Guide?????
As promised- The records of previous battles;.
auspec (10/18/2000; 17:27:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39342)
WE'RE BAAAAACKK!/ Peter Asher
Peter,
I can't seem to get a rise out of these guys, maybe they're asleep at the stern. Thought for sure my financial pressure would get the job done, guess some people just don't need that kind of money. Maybe CPM is another BB, have all this physical supply readily on hand, and just simply don't care about another $2.34M order {maybe they didn't see that M correctly}. Anyway in the interest of obtaining our HOF for "colorful" posts we should try another tact. Let's just keep pestering them until they accede! No one can hold up to that type of pressure. We need some more USAGOLD posters to join our small ranks {2}. Looking for former class clowns, the irreverent, goofballs, offbeats, lefties, Californians, past glue sniffers, poets, philanderers,plagarists, ANYBODY that can work a keyboard! Will settle for just one more humor advocate. It doesn't hurt that much to use several sections of the cerebrum. Help me, Peter. Here is yesterday's post as promised, guess what you will get to see tomorrow with additional commentary??? Give up yet???auspec (10/17/00; 21:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39265)
Peter Asher/ Satire
Evening Sir,
The silence ends as am no longer able to contain myself, here is a second to your desire for a separate HOF category for the off-beat! Lord knows this site could lighten up a bit. This poster has a lot of influence with Michael as am currently in process of ordering $2.34M worth of British Sovereigns from him. Either we get our category or I will pull this order! This is clearly a capitalist enterprise that responds to it's customers {and their bucks}. You know, with the commissions this outfit charges, 30-35%, that order is worth a lot of ski trips, and bottles of Chivas, even to Buffet, Gates, and Kosares. If we don't get our needs met by the next new moon we'll organize a strike and all buy our future fortunes on Comex {they have all that gold don't they?}. It is totally unfair and undemocratic to limit the HOF to the intelligent. Let the people speak and gain the victory from our oppressors...What say you fellow {half} wits??????????
P.S. This post will appear daily until the revolution is over.Thank you Sir Peter for your persistence!
Aristotle
(10/20/2000; 9:30:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 39479)
Bravos2all and others -- a clarification of usage
I've recently seen you and others make comments about "paper gold" such as this--
-------"I own a fair amount of physical & am getting close to selling many of my paper gold (shares) and buying more PM's."-------
I'm not sure how many others have come to consider Gold mining company shares as a form of paper gold, but seeing this, I must make a clarification of my own usage of that term. To me, stock is stock, with some companies being perhaps more attractive than others, or simply less repulsive. If I were to need to refer to mining stock, I would most definately say "stock" or else "shares", but not "paper gold."
In all of my prior usage of the term "paper gold," it is important for the understanding of my posts that people realize I used it for exactly what the name implies, that being, "Gold" that exists as a ledger entry beyond the on-hand vault Gold (analogous to vault cash) within the bullion banking system, and also the various Gold derivatives including the well-known COMEX Gold futures contracts.
With this, I'm not trying to dictate how others use the term, but merely clearing the record regarding the meaning behind my own usage of the term. My posts would make little sense to anyone who thought it to be equivalent to mining shares. To show an example: An increase in outstanding mining shares relative to the availability physical Gold would not increase the risk of a "run" on the bullion banking system or affect price discovery as I have previously described, whereas an increase in paper gold (bank ledger and derivatives) would. I hope this is helpful.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
auspec
(10/20/2000; 9:26:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39478)
CLHE-HoFAG/ Castle Seige Day 4/End Game Play
Battle Cry!! Give us our own HoF NOW!!!
The scuttlebutt is that Sir Black Blade wants to darken our doorway, a major defection. Thank you $hifty- you are now in charge of recruitment.
After an all night negotiating session {Jimy C. & slick were both there} there is nothing to report but inflammatory news. Will just highlite a few of the insults cast our way as most were not family friendly. MK and TC said they have no interest whatsoever in creativity, only academia and SALES. They followed up with various comments; CLHE-HoFAG is "childish", "wrong headed", not evolved as highly as the "normal HoF guys", "defective &/or missing chromosomes", "missing several links", & "village idiots". They then drew their line in the mud and said "next they'll be asking for a HoF for those that use NONE of their brains, and besides we're running out of cyberspace". "either step up to the plate with the Big Boys or quit whining. All you intellectual wimps, including TC, are welcome to convert one of your mining companies into your own internet site". Clearly, these are not reasonable people.
It was a long and painful night, but we let them know we are not going away easily or quietly {who else would have us?}. The good news is they are now laughing at us and FIGHTING us! Thank you Gandalf the Gandhi- now in charge of slogans. Our strategies are finally paying off. We started with #1 Bribes, #2 Pestering, #3 Groveling, #4 The "Free Gold" assult with OPG {MK's}, and lastly #5 Name Calling- "Townie is a donkie", "MK a lackey". Very limited results {0} with these ingenious strategies.
It's now time to play ace #6 {don't play cards with us, we have learned from TOCOM & COMEX} VIOLENCE. These guys are either deaf and/or dumb and/or part of the gold cabal {ultimate insult}. We have GATA CONNECTIONS, and they will soon be knocking {battering} on your door. The Castle will be under assult all day- to the victor go the spoils!
If violence fails us we will still prevail as there is one last quiver in our arrow to be directed your way much later today, only as a last resort. Our camp is starting to get bored with all this, and, frankly, suffering a drivel defecit. Our final ace, to the relief of all, will be played late today...............THE SILENT TREATMENT!!!!!!!!
Previous posts to follow.
Sincerely,
CLHE-HoFAG aka The Society for the Betterment of USAGOLD Forum
Buena Fe
(10/20/2000; 8:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39477)
auspec (10/19/00; 21:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39451) CLHE-HoF Progress?
I donna auspec......showin up with the grawg is something I know I can accomplish but butt.......showin up in drag????? I don't think I can explain that one to my wife.......although she does think i have a cute butt! Hee Hee
And don't worry bout runnin outta tickle juice.....my Lord was at a weddin once....and......and the host was really lookin stupid (he ran outta grawg early, outch).......so He helped out and turned some water into wine!!!!!!..........man I'd liked to have been there! Hey come to think of it He's going to be hosting a party of His own soon.......and I've got invitations for everyone!!!!
Let's Party!
wolavka
(10/20/2000; 7:39:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39476)
keep pushin euro
you're gonna get intervention, keep it up.
Sancho
(10/20/2000; 7:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39475)
The Traveler
Re your 39423 post on deflation scenario--an excellent post that deserves to be printed out an hung on the wall. The only comments I have that you would probably further agree with is that there are a lot of floating interest rates and short term balloon notes out there that with sudden economic changes will lead to much knashing of teeth and wailing.Also, property taxes have risen to such heights than in an economic turndown nonpayment of taxes by many will wreak long term havoc because subsequent property sales, whether voluntary or forced, have to be marked down a lot just to acccommodate this underlying constant item. And when the mood is sufficiently bearish, there may well not be buyers at ANY price.
wolavka
(10/20/2000; 6:35:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 39474)
Don't gun it too fast
slow burn up or you'll force them to cover and profit take.
Mr Gresham
(10/20/2000; 6:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39473)
"Brass Tax -- Unrealized Capital Gains"
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
I love this guy!
Nickel62 -- Traveler really laid it out. An encumbered real asset is probably better than a paper asset, but not as good as an unencumbered real asset (AU, AG). People are "smart" today buying real estate on leverage, and counting on various bailouts and their own pressure as voters to protect them from default if it happens to enough at one time. "Possession is 9/10ths..."
I wouldn't go as far as to sell and rent back the family residence, especially if you love your place, but rental properties are a lousy idea in peak markets. If you've protected your source of income and other savings, you should be able to make home payments better than most, and perhaps join in any mass "workout", "debt moratorium", "renegotiation" that occurs, anyway.
The clear picture from Traveler's story is that most people were helping to prematurely spend THEIR OWN retirement funds through credit overuse, as they'll find when the fund defaults ("break a buck") hit. Some borrowers will be net gainers, and most actual savers (as trusting lenders to financial entities) will be net losers.
wolavka
(10/20/2000; 5:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39472)
What is Bullshit?
Bing, "Bullshit is different than horseshit, which is alot smellier and has a mean and unpleasant edge to it.
Bullshitting is different than lying. In this particular craft, you can't really call it an art, those that succeed must recognize the moment of bullshit.
You can sling bullshit or serve it up.sling it out there see if it flies.
Be surprised and somewhat shocked when your bullshit is discovered. Wow , "is that mine?"
The only antidote to a bullshit situation is more bullshit.
Never attempt to rectify bullshit gone bad with anything other than more bullshit, UNLESS YOU WANT TO CHANGE THE GAME.
There is a time, however when bullshit should cease and you should once again reenter the world of truth and lies.
Having a reputation as a prime bullshitter only works for some professionals."
nickel62
(10/20/2000; 5:22:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 39471)
ORO we have heard from others concerning their opinion of which way the coming market action might unflod.
Would you give us your opinion as to wether or not the situation will lead to a spiraling down in real estate prices as Traveler suggests with the shrinkage of credit and the default and collateral sales. Or are we going to see hyperinflation as the government continues to extend credit in order to avoid the scenario of Traveler. Or will we see something entirely different? Thanks
wolavka
(10/20/2000; 4:27:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 39470)
start buying
you'll miss move.
Mr Gresham
(10/20/2000; 3:44:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 39469)
Peter
I didn't know you were a Cory fan! But aren't you thinking of Paul Milne? (Inspiring me to next go search DejaNews and see what Y2k's #1 doomer is up to...)
The "too-big-to-fail"ers I'm imaging as big, nasty guys adrift in a liferaft many weeks, eyeing each other as a likely cannibal snack. Each potential victim in turn takes up a teetering pose on the gunwale(? --boat's edge) threatening to tip the whole thing if he's approached. "If I go down, I'm taking you all with me" is the spirit. Improve my metaphor, anyone?
wolavka
(10/20/2000; 3:06:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 39468)
Heart of the Beast
Sinclairs' article read it!!!!!!!!! MITs Brain Surgeon cannot put this egg back on the wall if we don't slow burn to the upside.
Those who seek the answer here may not like the results.
ThaiGold
(10/20/2000; 3:04:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 39467)
Serious Mode
bravos2all (10/20/2000; 2:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 39466)
bravos2all:
Okay. I'll get serious for a minute. Your idea has merit and
would possibly cause some minor unavailability of borrowed
shares needed by the shorters to achieve their devious acts.
But it would be difficult to get small share holders like us to
order out our certificates from our (distant) brokers. It takes
about two weeks minimum, to receive them. Meanwhile,
during that period we cannot trade them safely. Nor at all.
If the market should spike either up or down, most of us
would wish to take some immediate action. Buy or sell.
It would be a risky time period, and we'd be hamstrung with
our shares somewhere in limbo/transit/postal.
Next, consider the similar situation arising after we actually
hold the certificates in our possession: Should the market
spike, most of us would wish to buy or sell these (our) shares.
On a moment's notice. But wait. There's still a problem.
Now we are faced with the task of returning the shares to our
(distant) brokers. And the time is tight. Settlements now only
allow three days. Registered mail is slower than snail mail.
So the broker may not receive them in time. And we'd be hit
with a broker-initiated adverse trade that could devastate.
It's just too risky to try to trade shares from possession in
volatile markets.
Lastly, I'd put forth the notion that (we) small shareholders
could hardly dent the borrow-pool. The large Funds, would
have far far more shares in Street Name, available. And it is
those shares that are (typically) in vast enough quantities to
be (always) available to the shorters.
Your idea is a good one. But I feel it's too cumbersome and
would not work. Also, it's very difficult to get alot of normal
people to do anything (such as requesting their certificates)
all together, coordinated, worldwide, on the same date. Etc.
And by the way: Welcome to the Forum.!.
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
bravos2all
(10/20/2000; 2:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 39466)
Aristotle & Others.......
Not to belabor my question.........
But if "TPTB" are already short using "our" shares, wouldn't they have a problem if the shares they were using were called away on a large scale ?
Maybe it is too late........perhaps most are not willing to fight any longer, but if this strategy could work, I think it should be considered if there could be a large enough consensus of shareholders worldwide willing to fight back.
Then again maybe we should just give up, sell our shares and wait, wait some more, and then wait some more..........
I own a fair amount of physical & am getting close to selling many of my paper gold(shares) and buying more PM's.
Thank you for your thoughts......
Chrusos
(10/20/2000; 2:22:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 39465)
Bankrupt gold shorts by breaking the carry, but beware the consequences
http://209.82.62.19/musacommod.nsf/Current/8525694F0063C6DC8525697D004074E9?OpenDocument
Heres the latest in a series at South Africa's Moneyweb - interesting paper gold scenarios.
Posted: 2000/10/19 07:00 AM EDT
Gold Debate: Contents
a. THE DEBATE IN A NUTSHELL
1. The gold market's nuclear winter - Jim Sinclair
2. There is a time-bomb, but for different reasons - Daan Joubert
3. Gold has lost its monetary day job - Andy Smith
4. Response to Daan Joubert - Jim Sinclair
5. Second response to Jim Sinclair - Daan Joubert
6. The multiplier effect of gold hedging
7. Current article
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some feel the weight of the gold market is economic. Others, like myself, believe that the constant selling by the hedging gold producers is the key negative price factor. Some subscribe to the gold carry as the culprit. The balance tends to be members of the school of conspiracy theory. Through MoneywebUSA we have examined hedging, conspiracy and economic factors. The focus of this article is on the remaining factor, gold carry.
While there are various types of carries, they all have the same goal. A carry is executed in an attempt to profit through the spread (or premium) between the cash cost of a commodity (or a near term derivative) and the future cost of the same commodity. The premium is moved by trader sentiment and the impact of changes in the interest rate due to the money cost necessary to hold the carry position. A carry may be the purchase of a near term derivative (or the actual commodity itself) and the sale of a long term derivative, or it may be the reverse position. The pillar for profit in these transactions is the correct interpretation of the direction of the cost of money and the positive or negative market sentiment.
At the time this article is being written cash gold is $273.2 per ounce and the price of December 2001 gold is $287.46 per ounce. The spread or "Contango" is $14.46/oz, a premium of 5.2%. The rational investor would realize that since the cost of money currently exceeds 6%, this type of gold carry is not economical.
Some believe in the existence of a 400 tonne carry position and believe that it is somewhat to blame for the continuing pressure on the gold market. If such a position exists it would be only economical if it were transacted by an entity that had actual bullion, or leased bullion whose cost is as low as 1.5%. In such a case, this entity could enter such a position profit in excess of 3.5% easily. Given the fact that individual or corporate investors cannot easily lease bullion with this purpose, the only entity that could have transacted it is a gold bank because they alone have access to the leased bullion.
In whatever form you design the carry, in order to generate a profit in this terrible bear market, the transaction would generate bearish weight on the gold market. Assuming you have the bullion in some form or lease bullion there is a sale without a buy. The buy comes in the future when the transaction is closed. However it is NOT the carry that caused the gold market to become demoralized. The supposed 400 tonne carry is possible only because of the mechanism for leasing gold and the size of the ongoing hedging book effecting continuous bearish pressure on the gold market.
If the people that mine gold demonstrate their BEARISH conviction by selling all they can mine for the next 15 years in year one, is it the carry that leads the potential for hedging or the hedging that makes the carry attractive? It is the hedgers that invite the carry bear spread to exist. For those with practical market knowledge the truth of this statement is obvious. Practical knowledge of the carry is only obtained by trading them in volume.
Economically we have increasing inflationary indices returning. We have equity markets preparing for a gut wrenching experience. International tensions are rising, not falling. The technical price objective for a barrel of oil is $47. Gold however is flat as a pancake. Why? Because the hedgers haven't a clue about what they have done or how to undo it. I suspect that they will continue in their foolishness until they are killed by a rally.
My greatest fear is the damage a fearsome rally will do. It is prudent to examine the implication of a new low in bullion, but I believe that greater destruction will come to the industry if the market experiences a powerful rally. This rally may be reality and may be propelled by ultra wealthy international traders determining the industry gold short position. This position can be calculated accurately on a daily basis. To bust the short all that has to be done is break the smaller carry market and the chain reaction will be nuclear. The resulting rally will take gold much higher than anyone, even I, am willing to say. At the top of this peak, who will buy it? No one and the fall will be more spectacular than the rise. Thus gold could be discredited beyond repair.
When United California Bank of Basle Switzerland (formerly Salik Bank), Basle Switzerland took on a major US market operator located then in White Plains, NY in Soy Beans it resulted in the first spectacular bankruptcy in Swiss Banking History. As a young man, I resigned from Salik Bank as their investment manager six months before they went bust. I witnessed the commodity department trading wildly in Soy Beans for an account code name "University." It did not take me long to figure out that "University" was the bank itself, not a client. When I submitted my resignation to the then President, Mr. P. Erdman, who did not know what was going on, I told this famous gentleman that the commodity department would break the bank. I left Basle, Switzerland to return to New York City to accept a partnership with a New York Stock Exchange firm. Six months later the bank exploded. As was the law in Switzerland when foul play is suspected in a financial institution, the President and the entire board of directors along with non-executive department heads went immediately to jail pending the audit. I know the president did not know what the commodity department was up to. Regardless, he spent time in a medieval jail.
To the Gold Producing Industry Hedgers, I predict that your enormous companies and all the work done to make you what you are today will be placed in jeopardy. I have outlined all the reasons why and you ignore them completely. You can save yourself, your companies and your industry now by quietly covering your short spreads while the price is cheap and execution can be accomplished profitably. Barrick, you are a mega-genius. Homestake, Newmont and the rest of you real miners, not moneychangers in a mining industry, your non-hedging in any large amount will be rewarded. You producer hedgers must have the right of offset with your gold bank, and the ability to transfer your contracts to any broker or party of your selection, or your covers could be in vain due to counter party risk.
I predict that the Central Banks will experience considerable embarrassment when it is discovered that you have leased to extremely low credits. A Central Bank really has only one asset and that is credibility. Loss of credibility to a major central bank is untenable, and predictable, unless they review the credit worthiness of those entities standing behind the gold banks to which the return of your gold will be sought. Clearly leased gold should not find its way into supporting a carry position. The Gold Bank has no mine to produce bullion but only money to make good on the loss. No matter how big the balance sheet of the Gold Bank, it pails when compared to the commitments of these derivative dealers. Asset versus liabilities is meaningless unless you know the absolute size of the counter obligations an entity has if all were to be executed at once on one day. That number is cleverly undeterminable.
To those that sold the Gold Producer Hedgers on this financial strategy and those who are now in the producing company and refuse to consider the risk be warned, it will all end up in the courts. Your position is untenable when you realize that a judge and/or jury will decide your and the company's future.
Keep a close eye on the complaint and the discovery deposition process in the Ashanti case. It may well be a lesson concerning your own future in this litigious world we live in. Even MIT's derivative brain surgeon cannot guarantee you that in the time between mathematical predictive market relationship-disruption-return to predictive normality you will not face the judge. You will. Try to explain to a jury that you had no risk but experienced momentous losses. It is along that line that Ashanti will have to defend itself if they do not offer a settlement. While Ashanti may now find comfort from the Ghana Court Act that proclaims that only legal rulings of the Ghana Courts will be enforced, this ease will be offset by frustration should they ever wish to borrow money in the future.
By: James Sinclair
ThaiGold
(10/20/2000; 2:14:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39464)
Over Achievers, Out Performing.
Oilman (10/20/2000; 1:30:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39461)
Oilman has put it all into perspective. I never thought of them
that way. Out Performing. But it's profound reasoning.
I shall Call my Option in the morning. And advise him to
stop Collapsing my Finance. I will Engender him no-more
with my precious (little) cash.
Certainly, that is the least I could do, since I'm Out of
the Money. My money. It's been Discounted. And Interest
Rates no longer apply. This is Fairly Standard for me.
It may be a Sinister thing to do. But it's a fair Strike Price
to pay. For the feeling of freedom. Where is the Equity in it.?.
For-sure, Liabilities Exceed my Assets around here. If there's
an Underlying Asset lurking anywhere, I'll try to find it.
I guess it's Time for me to Walk Away. Before the Volatility influences my writing. The fresh air will feel nice at The End
of The Day.
Must hurry. Before the moonlight Expires Worthless.
Good Knight
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
wolavka
(10/20/2000; 2:00:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39463)
Momentum
All you need to know. Gold only investment left for young turks for fast track r.o.i.
wolavka
(10/20/2000; 1:44:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39462)
Depression
Stress, manage it. Tonite/today is best shot all week for pog to upside. I will do my part today. Don't give up or you'll lose out now.
Oilman
(10/20/2000; 1:30:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39461)
Aristotle - 39459
Owning equity is always a calculated risk on management's ability to perform, or rather, to outperform. One can also look at equity as a call option on the company. If liabilities exceed assets, you can walk away from the company and your call otions expire worthless. Consequently, the value of equity should be subject to similar considerations as for call options, namely the strike price, interest or discount rate applicable, volatility, underlying asset price, etc. Going short on equity by writing out of the money call options is fairly standard, with nothing sinister about it. At the end of the day, I guess everyone would like to avoid a financial collapse, and not engender one!
ThaiGold
(10/20/2000; 1:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 39460)
Street Name Wallpaper
bravos2all (10/20/2000; 0:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39458)
Myself, am inclined to agree with Aristotle. These dogs can't
go much lower. So why bother.
Especially since they produce only Gold, which will soon
be confiscated anyway. At $50/oz.
Better, to simply do as F*arfel did: Dump them all. To teach
those incompetent CEO's a lesson. In economics.
Spite is so fun.
But perhaps there's a better alternative:
We could order out our shares and use them in our homes
instead of expensive paper products. I feel my Newmont
shares would make very colorful placemats. And the CCH
shares could ...er.... fit well in the bathroom.
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
Aristotle
(10/20/2000; 1:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39459)
Bravos2all -- my perception
I can't imagine that ANYONE is shorting mining stocks at this point. Your idea is fine, but I wouldn't anticipate any material effect because these dogs are already trading at pennies on the dollar.
My guess is that either of two outcomes are most likely for current owners of mining shares: 1) bankruptcy before the fact; or 2) "nationalization" after the fact. To explain outcome #2, one need look no further than the precedent of the Texas Railroad Commission to see how the Government can implement production controls "in the interest of national whatever."
Make no mistake. Ownership of mining shares is nothing more than buying a stake in the management team's ability to outperform other management teams, and to compete against the clutching ingenuity of government. There is no leverage in mining shares when you look at the big picture, and given their trading level, shorting them at this point is as silly as owning them. No offense.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
bravos2all
(10/20/2000; 0:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39458)
Is this a good stragey.........
Hello fellow knights........I seldom post & have lurked for almost 4 years on the gold forums.
I have an idea that may be able to put pressure on "The Powers That Be" if we all work together collectively........ Let
me know if you all think this may be a good strategy or if it will even work.
My understanding is that most people do not take possesion of their stock certificates and that "TPTB" use our shares (held in street name)to short our gold stocks.
What if we collectively put out the word on every forum possible and everyone requested their stock certificates be
sent to them.........all on the same day. I do not know how many shares are out there.........but I have over 40 thousand gold shares.
Would this tactic put pressure on anyone who are using "our" gold shares for shorting purposes ??
Thank you all for any thoughts on this topic........
Peter Asher
(10/20/2000; 0:12:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39457)
SHIFTY (10/19/00; 23:43:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39454)
Bull fighting, auto racing and the Olympic Downhill are all bad ideas on four hours of sleep. But Wild Boar Hunting? that is totally nuts! I hope you have one of those quasi-legal, magazine load shotguns with heavy gauge pellets or slugs.
Turn off the alarm and sleep in, please. we're really getting to like you here.
Peter Asher
(10/20/00; 00:06:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39456)
ORO, Traveler, ET & All
I keep passing a sign on a Golfcourse/lakeview subdivision that says "Lots, 100% financing, zero down!"
As background: Per Oregon lien law, any work done ,even after a financing is closed to title, takes precedence for payment. Therefore most "Contract of sale deals" forbid any construction. So, buyers basically have a titled lay-away plan, and the developer has some cash-flow. He has nothing to lose if he can't sell otherwise as either the payments keep coming or he gets the lot back.
Now what is interesting here is that to the degree the developer has paid for equity in these lots , he is in effect creating unrecorded Money Supply! (M-X ??) He, the developer is personaly "printing" the credit for these probably 60K, lots. (It would seem that if he was substantially encumbered on the lots, his lender would not permit this.)
I see four distinct major bubbles threatening the show. Non-liability equities, Derivatives, Big Float, and Credit. The latter is the one that will bring the system down if it bursts. There appears to be no economic sector that is not operating at maximum market share capacity due to the credit expansion. There is no cushion! The only direction to go from here is down.
The composite world of banks, credit card companies, government securities, corporate bond holders and the aforementioned private term grantors, requires the status-quo of debt service to be maintained. This is the "Too big to fail" item.
AG and the others must first and foremost keep everybody IN their jobs by what ever mechanizations are required. The chain reaction of default, once triggered, would be as totally destructive of the global economy and paper assets as that envisioned by Cory Hamasaki for Y2K
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