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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/19/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Goldilox (1/19/06; 23:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140676)
A tale told by numbers
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.html
@ TC,

For those who constantly say, "It can't happen here", I suggest you take a closer look at the graph of US debt, and then tell me it's not already happening here.

"You say 'hyperbole' and I say 'hyperbola',
Let's call the whole thing off!"


TownCrier (1/19/06; 22:59:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140675)
Eurosystem continues long trend, dishording foreign paper
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/1220061/default.html
The consolidated weekly financial statement shows that while the eurosystem reallocated a half tonne (0.5t) of gold (EUR 7 million) during the past week, it again dishoarded a disproportionately larger stake in foreign currency, reducing its net position by EUR 0.6 billion.

Among assets, eurosystem gold and gold receivables now stand at EUR 163.797 billion, whereas the net position in foreign currency as a proportion of the total has slipped yet further, to EUR 161.1 billion.

^---(stats from this url... http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2006/html/fs060117.en.html )---^

For full commentary on this situation, I would simply repeat verbatim my zesty offering of last week.

For that, see the earliest post of the day in the archives at the hyperlink given above. Click and scroll all the way down to....
TownCrier (1/12/06; 00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 140380)

R.


Flatliner (1/19/06; 22:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 140674)
@Black Gold
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/orders/2005/20051118/attachment.pdf
Goldilox, Very interesting lead. I found the following after skimming the article and followed the link (I've included it here). I was wondering why the natural gas prices came down so fast. It seems that logic applied in the gold market works in other markets also…

Snip:
Suddenly in November of 2005, the Federal Reserve gave its Approval of proposal by JPMorgan Chase & Company (click link for Fed Document of approval) "for commodity trading activities, including physical transactions in energy-related ... JPM Chase also must notify the Federal Reserve Bank of New York..."
Even more sudden was the 40% drop in natural gas prices.


Flatliner (1/19/06; 22:38:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 140673)
Slow and steady?
Belgian, For weeks now I have been more then puzzled by your insistence that the rise in gold price will be orderly. I still wonder, but a few minutes ago, I may have stumbled across a clue that questioned my own chaos theory flipping it a little more your way. It seems obviously simple too.

As everyone knows, once you get into an investment position, you either go long or short. When you select a side, you usually push your point of view knowing all along that anyone else joining your side will help move it one-step closer to reality. If you are an individual investor, you might be able to convince a person or two, but usually not many.
If you're an investment house, you've got hundreds of brokers with hundreds of clients and a "top notch" group of analysts on your side. As the house, when you push your point of view, people buy or sell on your recommendation. Or, better yet, sense I know I'll find resistance here with that statement, ‘Sheepeople’ will buy or sell based on the recommendation from the house.

We all know that there is a short squeeze going on in the gold market. The bullion banks are on the short side for thousands of tonnes. They… are also the house. It would seem to me that speaking negative about the precious metals would clearly be in their best interest. I would expect that every report from any brokerage house that has any connection to a house with any short position will have nothing but negative information to share with the public.

It gets even better then that. Anyone that has ever studied the marketing used in Hollywood will know that any publicity is good publicity. Why do ‘Stars’ do something stupid only days before their art hits the market? Whether it's running off for a quickie three day marriage or throwing a phone at someone, it draws attention to them. In the gold world, if you're the house, you're going to do everything that you can to not say a word. You don't want any attention. None.

It seems that there are three possible outcomes. 1) The price stays down and over time the banks are able to work out of the contracts. 2) The price goes up like gangbusters and the fraud of the entire system is exposed for what it is or, 3) the price goes up slowly, the banks take loses but not too much while working out of the market and the fraud remains – to some degree – hidden from sight.

Case 1 is no longer an option so we're fighting between 2 and 3. Back in December, we saw speculators in Japan get blitzed with a 50 buck drop and a change of rules thus leading me to believe that there is still some control capping the gangbusters approach. At the same time, all the propaganda that comes out of brokerage houses is still bearish on metals. But, more importantly, metals are "unimportant". They have made it clear that it's not worth really talking about and they don't.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold in the next few months. Will the gold silence propaganda work? If so, we go the slow and steady stealthy path. If it doesn't, we go the chaos overnight path. If we go the overnight path, there is a high probability that the banks will be out of business, markets will shut down and our society will swing radically to an extreme that may be almost a complete breakdown.

I think the ‘Big Traders’ out there know how susceptible the system is and that it can be exposed any number of different ways. At the same time, all the bad guys lose if the fraud is exposed, thus it's in the bad guys interest to make sure the system isn't exposed. Thus, compromises must be made. Hopefully, we'll see the outcomes of some compromises is the immediate future to make sure we stay on the slow and steady path.

We watch a truly interesting battle. One must prepare for the worse and hope for the best. I'm looking forward to feedback from all.


TownCrier (1/19/06; 22:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 140672)
A tale told by numbers
http://www.usagold.com/GermanNightmare.html
The Wholesale Price Index as documented for the fateful decade preceding the "Nightmare German Hyperinflation" provides a sobering reminder, as recently reiterated by MK, that waiting to choose an auspicious entry point (a 'cheaper' gold price) can easily become a fool's errand when, in fact, the more important task at hand is simply to accomplish (without any further excuses for delay) ownership of gold metal commensurate with a level of savings (true savings) actually befitting your life's achievements. Otherwise, procrastination and a 'trading' mentality can put it all up in smoke like so much paper and ill-founded promise.

Turning now to the German example, with July 1914 as the benchmark, one ounce of gold had a corresponding price of 86.8 marks from the Reichsbank.

To show how quickly things got out of hand, and the relative futility of "bargain shopping", the following is a tabulation of what the price of single ounce of gold would have been at steps along the way were it to be floating independently right along in response typical with other wholesale prices of the period.

July 1914 -- 86.8 reichsmarks

Jan 1919 -- 225.7 reichsmarks
July 1919 -- 295.1

Jan 1920 -- 1,093.7

Jan 1921 -- 1,249.9
July 1921 -- 1,241.2

Jan 1922 -- 3,185.6
July 1922 -- 8,732.1

Jan 1923 -- 241,735
July 1923 -- 16,839,200
Nov 1923 -- 63,016,800,000,000 reichsmarks


During the eight year period from July 1914 to July 1922, the reichsmark price of gold increases 'only' by a factor of 100 (and dissuading how many from choosing "expensive" gold, we wonder), but during the short timespan of the following singlular year, to July 1923, the price of gold jumps by an additional factor of nearly 2,000!

And then, in the following blowout to November 1923, with one look at the price it should become very apparent that all former thoughts of trading in and out of gold in pursuit of a paper (monetary) profit were but a frivolous misplacement of understanding, and that any given currency unit, receivable at it's price for gold, is somewhat superficial like the number of candles and color of icing on a cake -- whereas the gold itself IS the cake AND the icing AND the candles.

The choice is yours. You can wait, foolishly cakeless, until there are more and more candles on the cake and the baker has a long waiting list, or you act now with aplomb and put your current currency's purchasing power into action -- by using it to buy gold you can HAVE your cake, and EAT it, too.

("Eating" it means you've successfully consumed/used/digested the purchasing power of your holdings of money which was otherwise at risk of wasting away; and still "having" it means that your ownership of gold metal always provides you easy access to full-bodied purchasing power at any future time that you might desire to tap into it.)

R.


Goldilox (1/19/06; 21:16:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140671)
Black Gold - US Dollar Hegemony
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gnazzo/2006/0119.html
snip:

There is the distinct possibility that the often talked of "powers that be" are not the individuals that most consider them to be. They are not Presidents of Nations, although they may do their bidding. They are not Kings and Queens, although they may do their bidding. They are not the mightiest military powers, although they may do their bidding.

They are so subtle and powerful that they often support both sides in international disagreements, waiting to the last second to remove their support from one side – tipping the balance of power.

They are so powerful they created the concept and working structure of central banking. If money is truly the sinew of war – then he who controls the money, controls war, and the outcome of war. Are there those who profit from war – the merchants of death?

So perhaps we should not be so quick to believe everything we read, as who owns most if not all of the major media outlets. Perhaps the Iranian Bourse will come to be. Perhaps it will have an affect on the value of the dollar - perhaps not.

Might there be those who would like to see the U.S. dollar collapse? Might there be those powerful enough to set up the Iranian Bourse or anyone else they care to, to take the fall?

Did we not just read a very highly regarded paper on Petrodollar Warfare that talked of such.

Furthermore, what of the euro – has it just happened upon the world stage without a lot of forethought and planning? Who was the force and power behind all that planning, and what fore?

Could the euro and euro-land be a prototype of a New World Order? Why has Britain been so reluctant to join? Who resides in the innermost circle? Cui Bono.

Nevertheless, one thing is almost certain – nothing will happen that is not directed to happen – by the board of directors of the New World Order.

-Goldilox

This is very powerful (and long) discussion of IRAN as it relates to the total global oil market and global power jockeying. What is really telling to me is that an article of this persuasion would NOT have appeared on a conservative site like FSO two years ago. The mind set of the "investing herd" appears to be changing!


OvS (1/19/06; 20:08:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140670)
OK, Smeagol
That was the "old" way.
The "new dawn" proclaims:
Gold "insures" wealth-
building.


OvS (1/19/06; 20:01:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 140669)
Yes, Deutsche Bank.
Certain "friendly" cousins
planted that Trojan Horse
called Bankers Trust into
Deutsche Bank just as those
"friendly" cousins planted
Marathon Oil into DuPont.
It's a well known technique
to take over "Troy". All of
sudden, Citi(bank)Group is
ready to take over the heart
of European business...more
power to them. Just shows that
trusting and highflying ueber-
managers are a little on the
slow side. OK, CB2? Yours,OvS


Smeagol (1/19/06; 19:58:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140668)
Perhapss one could say....
...that It is Wealth which among many uses may be called upon as insurance in troublous times. You hold this golden "policy", which at your option may be "exercised" or cashed out under terms which you decide the "policy" covers.

S.


OvS (1/19/06; 19:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 140667)
MK vs. Belgian.
If gold is insurance
then this insurance
protects your wealth?
Come again...


MK (1/19/06; 19:31:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 140666)
Sorry, Belgian
The last sentence in my post below is directed to 968. I got confused between you there.

Goldilox (1/19/06; 19:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 140665)
Carnie Hawks
@ BB,

"I always get a chuckle when I hear the carnival barkers tell us that precious metals are a terrible investment."

Perhaps because they view "investment" as a "bet", not an asset.

Why else would 80-90% of all market activity be in "derivatives"?


MK (1/19/06; 19:12:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 140664)
Belgian
http://www.usagold.com/goldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html
The insurance company?

The millions across the globe who understand that gold transcends paper currrencies and preserves their hard earned wealth (large or small) no matter what government (including the European variety) does to their money.

How it "works"?

I suggest the link above. (In case you've forgotten.) I also suggest (humbly) "The ABCs of Gold Investing: How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold" where my ideas are developed in more detail. I have also written a great many articles and essays with which you may be familiar ( a Google search will help you in this regard. My most recent efforts are available at our Daily Market Report page linked at the top of the page.) No point in rewriting what's already been done. If you are not familiar with the situation at Deutschbank, I would suggest starting with the Bankers' Trust merger some years ago and working your way forward.

With respect,
MK





Beer Man (1/19/06; 18:49:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140663)
Price of G vs R
I think the realestate value is mostly tied to location & dont think it will ALL go up or down .... I took a Zero rate card & did the same not too long ago .. glad I did .. when asked buy a friend at work that started to see the light .. how much do you have .. the answer was Lb.s not Oz.s ..... All is Well

Ned (1/19/06; 18:30:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 140662)
@ Thoreauly
I'll trump all of that.

I feel the housing market is toppy so I'm going to sell high, rent and buy gold low.



USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/19/06; 18:28:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 140661)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THRUSDAY Market Excerpts

Gold futures end with $15 gain

January 19 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed almost $15 an ounce Thursday, erasing the prior session's losses on the heels of concerns about volatility in energy prices and news of a purported al-Qaida threat against the United States.

COMEX February gold contracts closed up $14.50 at $559 an ounce after touching an intraday high of $559.70.

On Wednesday, gold was also caught up in the turmoil in the Japanese stock market, where trading ended before its regularly scheduled close as a flood of orders threatened to overwhelm the Tokyo Stock Exchange's systems.

The sell-off was triggered in part by a raid on Internet portal Livedoor. Traders said that gold got swept up in the volatility as funds liquidated futures positions to meet margin calls on equity positions.

"We saw little evidence yesterday that the Godzilla-size footprints of funds bailing out of gold was present," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco. "We did see evidence overnight that millions of tiny [individual-investor] footprints make for an equal-size impact on gold -- in the opposite direction."

According to Julian Phillips of GoldForecaster.com, overall, "this accelerated climb up a net $60 since December is symptomatic of the ongoing evolution of the gold market to a broader-based alternative to currencies in an increasingly uncertain global environment."

Further adding support Thursday, apparently al-Qaida's Osama bin Laden warned of fresh terrorist attacks against America. The threat came in a audiotape broadcast by Arab TV network Al-Jazeera, reports said. Bin Laden also reportedly offered a truce.

"I think it's just another log on the fire -- al-Qaida, Iran, crude and the fact the foreign central banks are shying away the dollar and the commodity funds are chasing another hot market," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---


Rad (1/19/06; 18:18:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140660)
Thoreauly/ equity out of your house
I did it. It felt like a crazy thing to do, but I reasoned (right or wrong) that it was a wise thing to do given our circumstances. I put it in play in early November, by chance the same time the FED gave the discontinuing M3 announcement. It has been working out well. I have no trouble servicing the debt but haven't had a high paying job long enough to have a wad of cash saved. Also, Bush is helping me pay it off by devaluing our currency.

Beer Man (1/19/06; 18:05:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140659)
Value of GOLD over Time ??????
I Know this may sound foolish ..... but when Gold hit $300 for ( real, to my door ) .. the only kind ... I thought I would slow down ... & knew at the time it was A BAD IDEA ... That I would look back & think how cheap it was & that I should have been getting it with Both Hands!! I was Right & wrong at the same time ..... the good news is it didnt take long to get back on track ...... Say Yes!! I have seen many things ( realestate ) do that for many years ... Yes I think TO The Moon !!!!!!

Cometose (1/19/06; 17:27:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 140658)
Thoreauly/ equity out of your house
Good Thinking..........

I took all the cash out of my life insurance policy and went to debt to finance a gold purchase 2/3 years ago in approximately the same amount .

Now paying it back from other sources to the insurance co ....so that my insurance equity can now fund sll future premiums.......


David Linkley (1/19/06; 17:26:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140657)
What's changed?
Gold continues its relentless climb and laughs off all attempts at top calling and the COT theatrics. Clearly some very large entity or entities is currently buying all the dips and then some. Many expanations abound including the fine writings of Belgian on this board. Is this the beginning of a panic into gold by those who realize just how short the physical supply is or an end of January short squeeze? The one constant to me is the relentless expansion of the money supply in an attempt to hold the world economic system afloat. I agree with MK that all of the factors for the rise are too numerous to mention but Warren Buffett mentioned yesterday that a sharp adjustment along with severe political consequences as a result of the trade deficit are not too far off. The message is - get gold now while it's cheap and available. "Tommorrow" is almost certainly going to look much different than today's complacent activity.

Thoreauly (1/19/06; 17:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 140656)
Taking equity out of your house to buy gold
I would be interested to know what you folks think about this idea. I own my house free and clear, its market price having increased around $125,000 since I bought it in 2000. Assuming that it's market price has peaked, and believing that gold is still dirt cheap, wouldn't I be wise to up my gold holdings in this manner?

Cometose (1/19/06; 17:00:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 140655)
goldprice//////
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton011306.html
Noticed quite a bit of reference in MK's address re: his CBS Interview and thought about the most recent Hamilton
article ........see below

He said the relative gold is still CHEAP
The 950 Peak in prices equates to in excess of 2000 present day dollars............

He presented analysis that states that in REAL DOLLAR terms the recent high in Real Dollar is not 25 years but 13 years.............

We haven't even got started on Phase II yet..........

In light of Japan's recent bump in the road ........and their long lasting love affair with Gold as well as Platinum and the Chinese proclivity toward the same .., even platinum may be cheap and those two nations may take them up as well into the stratosphere.

THe underlying fundamentals of this BUll are much different than those of the late 70's .........Oil cannot come down ....and because of BLACK GOLD'S RELATIONSHIP TO
THE METAL ........the prices ahead of us may not be undone as easily as they were in the days of The Former FED Chairman .......

For many here and for many that read these pages...(fortunate) ....what is unfolding is going to be a permanent life changing event........It's nice to look like a genius .......I prefer the comfort derived from seeing the market (look) .......over the effect of the other look .

I beieve our great fortune is to have this pages at our disposal for all these years. Happy NEW YEAR to the Staff .

GO BRONCOS!!!!


Black Blade (1/19/06; 16:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 140654)
"Portfolio Insurance"
Some good discussion lately. Precious metals are "portfolio insurance" and they have performed very well. The recent volatility is interesting as funds have been in and out of the market only to reenter again. However, even as the funds try to push the price around we should take notice that we are hitting higher highs and higher lows. This is a secular bull market that will last years if not decades.

As the stock indices have been rather stagnant I have to point out that the biggest problem for the markets now are the "twin deficits" that are ravaging the US Dollar. It is somewhat amusing that the carnival barkers talk up the "strength of the US dollar". Whatever happened to that "strong dollar policy" anyway? The administration, and particularly treasury Secretary John Snow, has been noticeably silent on this. Warren Buffett (aka "The Oracle Of Omaha") recently spoke out on the trade deficit as the biggest threat to the dollar. I would have to agree but the budget deficit and lack of savings among consumers must also be considered.

Gold and Silver are not only hedges against a weakened US dollar, but are a hedge against a weak stock market and rising inflation. Also keep an eye on "real rates" (real inflation minus the Fed rate). When the "real rate" is very low or negative as now then it is important to consider hard assets for "portfolio insurance". I always get a chuckle when I hear the carnival barkers tell us that precious metals are a terrible investment. Where have they been the last five years? Maybe they are right in a sense because I consider precious metals as "insurance" rather than what is normally considered as an investment. Sure precious metals can be an investment but more as an investment against economic and geopolitical turmoil.

Is Gold still a buy at these higher prices? Damn straight! Gold remains grossly undervalued and the basic supply-demand fundamentals are very strong. Now with liberalized Gold ownership in China, rising demand in India and the Middle East we won't see any meaningful addition to supply for the next several years. It takes years to explore, permit, and start construction on new mines, and that is before the first dore is poured from production. And Central Bank sales? Forget it! Central Bank gold rarely if ever makes it to the open market but are merely transfers from institution to another. Also note that the "Gold Carry" trade is dead with these low interest rates and besides, too many producers have been badly burned on these deals. Even the mega-hedgers are struggling to unload these burdens as fast as they can.

Still holding Gold and Silver as "portfolio insurance" myself. It has been a very good move for me.

- Black Blade


Boilermaker (1/19/06; 16:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 140653)
@Belgian
For me, using the term "insurance" for gold is one way to describe it as an alternative to currency, specifically for the preservation of wealth. If it also has the potential of appreciation against other assets that is an added benefit. There is no risk of default by an insurance company, ie., the $, and the premium is paid only once.

Belgian (1/19/06; 16:20:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 140652)
Ned
To which bin laden are you asking the answer on your question ? (-:^:-)

Belgian (1/19/06; 16:16:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140651)
Gold
If gold is an insurance...then who is the insurance company and how does this insurance "works" ?

Ned (1/19/06; 16:15:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 140650)
What's the truce?
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)

"Further adding support Thursday, apparently al-Qaida's Osama bin Laden warned of fresh terrorist attacks against America. The threat came in a audiotape broadcast by Arab TV network Al-Jazeera, reports said. Bin Laden also reportedly offered a truce."


-sorry, no link-


Boilermaker (1/19/06; 16:05:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 140649)
Golden Insurance
MK, 968, Goldi, all,
For me, gold is life insurance against the death of the $ as the world's reserve currency. I forsee a new reserve regime that recognizes gold as the necessary major component in a central bank's reserves. Instead of the typical 10 or 15% gold component, gold will become the 85 to 90% component. This will occur by virtue of a real decline in the $ and a real appreciation of gold vis-a-vis other assets. Basically I expect a 90% decline in the purchasing power of the $ and a 5-times increase in the purchasing power of gold. Together this implies a forty-fold increase in gold vs the $. This adjustment will automatically result in the reserve ratios noted above without the need for major central bank gold aquisitions except for countries like China and Japan that are woefully under-insured.
If you subscribe to some version of this scenario then you might, as I do, view your gold as insurance with a big kicker.


bskija (1/19/06; 15:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140648)
Gold and Paper
I doubt that gold will ever replace paper money. It would be like a car that has no brakes or steering wheel. One can accumulate wealth with gold. Since 1997 my average annual return has been 11.89% and since 2002 my return has been 79% on the gold Eagles I purchased the year of 2002. Gold has many enemies such as the Central Banks and most of the big boys. In the old days the Central Banks would buy gold when supply was greater than demand and sell gold when demand was larger than supply to keep the price under control. Because there were horrendous losses by some of the big boys that threaten to bring the world's economy down to a level that would make 1930s look like an era of prosperity during the 1980s and 1990s, the Central Banks raided the cookie jar.
Some of the cookies were gold. In order to stay alive the gold mining folks stopped exploration for gold and mined the good stuff near the ground, leaving the bad stuff deep in the ground for later when the price to do so was justified. Exploration for gold takes five to ten years before the bacon is brought to the table. Instead the gold companies are swallowing up other gold companies to keep their supply flowing. The supply can't keep up with the demand and the Central Banks apparently don't have enough gold to attenuate the price of gold. I often wonder if Fort Knox is as empty as Old Mother Hubbard's cup-board.


Goldilox (1/19/06; 15:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 140647)
Wizards of Money
http://www.altruists.org/downloads/by_subject/money/
After disappearing since 2003, Smithy's "Wizards of Money" Tutorial on how money is created and manipulated has been recollated at this URL. It is one of the best available lay person's descriptions of the wizardry of banking, as reflected in its title, and the editors have included it with some other very meaty titles.

One of my favorites on this MLK holiday week, is her analysis of the MLK speech on abusive RE lending practices in Atlanta in WOM#3, "Banking on Poverty". While winning the Nobel Peace prize, and having a holiday named after him for civil rights activities, most people are not at all aware that MLK was a severe critic of banking and RE practices in ghetto neighborhoods.

I have not found a better source for learning about how banking "works". Make sure you set aside some listening time, as it is lengthy, but well organized and well documented.


MK (1/19/06; 14:20:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 140646)
968
"Imagine that there is a perfectly managed paper currency."

You reveal much of yourself when you ask something like that. I'm sorry but I do not imagine such things. It's a waste of my time.


Goldilox (1/19/06; 13:53:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140645)
No, Thank you!
@ MK,

Thank you for sponsoring this outlet of information interchange.

It appears that 2006 is off and running with a lot of political, financial, and market turmoil everywhere we look, and we here at the forum probably get the broadest available perspective on the machinations of "the man behind the curtain" - the one the Wizard says we should pay no attention to!

Keeping one's "eye on the prize" is often difficult, but oh, so important in times like these.


968 (1/19/06; 13:53:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 140644)
@ Sir MK
Goodevening Sir MK,

"Gold is not like other investments; in fact it isn't really an investment at all. It is an insurance policy against the deprivations and dangers of politically motivated paper currency values."

The impression this statement gives me, is that gold is nothing more then a dollar-hedge, or a put option on the dollar.
Let's imagine that there is a perfectly managed paper currency, then the people who hold this currency don't need to own physical gold ?

"These are cheap prices relative to the massive dollar obligations and balances at loose in the world economy; cheap compared to the changing international financial psychology."

Can you elaborate on the changing international financial psychology, please ?
How does all this fits in the massive gold shortpositions (Deutsche Bank,...) you mentioned a few months ago ?

Or do I misunderstand your statements ?
Thanks in advance for your insights !

Kind regards,


MK (1/19/06; 13:11:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 140643)
Goldilox
Sorry for the repeat message for some here. There's always new people visiting and at important juncture's like today's the same-old same-old bears repeating for those who lose sight gold's essential mission. By the way, thanks for the updates you post. We all benefit from what you bring to this table.

Goldilox (1/19/06; 12:48:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 140642)
"Investing" vs. "Insurance"
Thanks MK for clarifying that again. I personally think it's the most misunderstood aspect of gold investing.

In this era of "savings" being nearly vilified by "easy money" and abusive credit scams, gold-in-hand just seems to be the only SAFE savings.


bskija (1/19/06; 12:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 140641)
Sale on Gold Eagles
Flatliner, you will have to be prepared to pay more for the one oz. Eagles. If you have dollars guaranteed to provide me with 100 cents of current purchasing power the sale price is $556. If you delay and the dollar has only one cent of purchasing power in the future the sale price currently will be 55,600 dollars and not a penny less. Regarding your premise that the big boys will be skunked because you are paying your debt with cheap money, I believe that it will be snowing in mythical hell before the little guy can skunk the big boys. Everybody will suffer here and abroad because the US is the major engine in the world's economy. It will be all currencies that will suffer not only the dollar. Only the pope doesn't have an eraser on the end of his pencil so I'm not infallible, but I believe that the dollar will drop in value but not to the extent of creating total chaos through out the world.

MK (1/19/06; 12:39:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 140640)
Update: Gold breaks the glass ceiling. What does this mean for the average investor?
There's one thing we have to keep in mind as gold breaks through the glass ceiling: It has been artficially held down through one machination or another for a good many years.** Those numbed by gold's rise and unable to act should keep that historical fact in mind. Under any of the correlations we hold dear with respect to gold price analysis, where would gold be trading today if nothing would have stood in its way over all these years? THAT above all should be primary in any potential gold owners analysis. $600? $700?? $800??? $2000???? The number is essentially irrelevant. Please read on!

As I have mentioned here before, the cyclical retracement for which some might be hoping may not come until we once again attain the old highs near the $900 mark. The slight retracements -- like the one before this rocket shot -- should be viewed as purchasing opportunities. The real mission for most investors is to protect one's hard-earned (won) wealth through the ownership of the most direct representation of wealth itself -- gold.

Those waiting for that long, deep correction may be waiting a long time simply because rising gold could very well be part of a much bigger cycle than most market observers have factored-in. As Elliot taught us there are cycles, cycles within cycles and then cycles over the long term which over-ride all. We are likely in one of those super cycles now.

Gold is now reacting to a confluence of factors -- too numerous to summarize without diluting my essential message. Let's look at the bigger picture. Those of you who know me and have read my work over the years know that I put a great deal of stock in the notion that markets, including the gold market, are largely governed by crowd (mass) behavior, and that overrides all else, including government intervention (any government's intervention). Charles Mackay's "Extraordinary Delusions or the Madness of Crowds" remains now -- 250+ years later -- the seminal work on market behavior as an integer of human behavior (It is available at our Gilded Opinion page linked above) for anyone looking for some grounding on this subject. The changes in progress now having to do with the dollar, gold -- in fact all paper currencies -- is pervasive, a generational change in attitude a long time in incubation but now making itself known. That is why you have so many msp's commenting on gold's "inexplicable" behavior.

Along these lines, the stock market panic in Tokyo over the past two days took the financial community by surprise and showed just how vulnerable stock and bond markets really are -- including the U.S. markets. We also have the reports of the losses at JP Morgan's trading desk in this morning's reports. Why did this loss occur? It occured, in my view, because some fundamental changes have taken root in the financial markets and JPM was taken by surprise. The way the players used to play the game no longer produces the same old winning percentages. JP Morgan was playing the old market; we are in a new market. The result has been and will continue to be a change of psychology and strategies more suited to the new venue. Without putting too much emphasis on this change with respect to the complexities of the gold market, my take is that this will be enough to put a rising floor under the gold market which will likely cover a great deal of price territory on the upside.

I said gold was cheap at $250; repeated that at $350 and $450 and say the same as we blow past $550. These are cheap prices relative to the massive dollar obligations and balances at loose in the world economy; cheap compared to the changing international financial psychology.

I was interviewed by CBS News (for gold market background) a couple of days ago and was asked when should an investor buy gold. I answered that the way I always answer it: Gold is not like other investments; in fact it isn't really an investment at all. It is an insurance policy against the deprivations and dangers of politically motivated paper currency values. One doesn't buy gold to make money. One buys gold to preserve what one already has.

There is no right price. The only real question is whether or not one has enough to weather the storm. If you have no gold or you need more, it is ridiculous to think that this price is too high in the fact of what is happening in the world economy. Price is relative, but gold's mission is unchanging. If you believe that the world economy will stumble through just fine, stick with your dollar (yen, euro et al) savings and investments. If you believe otherwise make the change. Price is not an issue. Your financial well-being is.


** I don't want to once again enumerate those machinations. If you are new here and in the dark on this subject, I would suggest a visit to our archives, the Gilded Opinion page, the Gold Trail, et al for background.


overton (1/19/06; 12:32:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 140639)
All the more reason to incease your AU holdings
Constituion is sliiping away


http://www.global-conspiracies.com/fake_2001_osama_bin_laden_video_tape.htm


Flatliner (1/19/06; 12:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140637)
‘become a "flatliner" and refuse to sell any.’
Lol.

Yesterday we heard that Iran says it's ready to repatriate oil earnings. Does this mean they will sell US dollars and buy their own currency? Or does it mean that they will sell US dollars and buy… gold? I'm leaning towards the latter.

I'm also curious for the first day of February. With all the funds running towards gold, it will be very interesting to see how many take delivery. We all know that all it takes is one ‘Big Trader’ to break the link between the paper markets and the physical market. Could it be that Iran gets backed into this corner? We all know what happens when confidence is lost…

I lost confidence a long time ago, thus, to me, gold is way more valuable then any paper dollar. Unless the conditions in the world change significantly, I may never sell my gold again and others may take the same opinion.


Belgian (1/19/06; 11:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140636)
@Gandalf
No limits up anymore, only limits down. Nobody ever found out what that $6 limit exactly was and more importantly, who was using it.
Once beyond $600/Oz...gold will find an open space. Then, very little metal will be available for individuals and states. Because the goldprice's behavior will be such that all become a "flatliner" and refuse to sell any.


Goldilox (1/19/06; 11:40:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 140635)
North Korea and NeoCons
@ Bongiorno,

One must question if North Korea would even have nuclear weapons if Rumsfeld hadn't so greedily sold them a reactor from his "Swiss" company in the 90's. Now he wants the US government to buy $7.5B worth of his "Tamiflu" to stockpile, and his Gilead Sci stock is acting like Google. It also doesn't take a lot of research to remember that Saddam wouldn't have even been in power or had WMDs if he wasn't on the NeoCon's "good guy" list for 25 years. They overturned a "democratically" elected government to insert "their guy" Saddam, just as they trained and funded Bin Laden to create resistance in Afghanistan.

The NeoCons don't seem as interested in protecting Americans, as much as propping up their own investments. That's why Halliburton not only gets no-bid contracts in Iraq, but in New Orleans, as well - using imported Mexican labor. American labor is finding it hard to compete with the "foreign labor" Neo-NewOrleans.

If the west was REALLY interested in non-proliferation, ALL the non-signatories would be pressured into compliance, not just the ones with coveted resources.

Market stabilization can only happen in concert with political stabilization, not by continuing to send "black ops teams" all over the world to foment revolutions and sponsor "terrorist events".

We seem to be witnessing a repeat of the financial collapse of 1929, where a decade of war buildup was the best answer the various political controllers could come up with to "fix" the world economic issues.

Off-topic? not entirely, as all markets, including gold, are reacting to the war threats, just as gold reacted fairly violently in 2003 for the Iraq "threat".


Belgian (1/19/06; 11:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 140634)
Today
JPMorgan/C : The goldprice started to rise in a currency decoupled way...at the time of the French -Non- !? Funny connection. Was immidiately remembering J.Rueff.

Copperfield : Zalm >>> This pinball player knows exactly what is going on, now...and knows the monetary system's history of the past 60 years. It was already broke...then !
And why isn't he profiting from the occasion to tell us why the euro exchange rate isn't rising against the dollar !? Zalm knows all the details that happened during the London Gold Pool episode.

CNBC : Osama tapes and the financial framing that goes with it. What a perfect world !?


Gandalf the White (1/19/06; 11:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140633)
Todays Non-prize "Question" ! <;-)
http://isht.comdirect.de/html/detail/main.html?type=ohlc&sSym=GLD.FX1&DEBUG=0&hist=1d&sCat=IND&sIsin=n%2fa&sTab=chart&sWkn=n%2fa
How soon will this VOLATILITY bring the "LIMIT UP" move ?US$17 moves are "nice" ! <;-)

Copperfield (1/19/06; 10:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 140632)
When people in High places openly predict doom and gloom..
http://www.nd.nl/Document.aspx?document=nd_artikel&id=65987
Dutch finance minister Zalm warns in newspaper dollar could slide and throw The Netherlands/EU in severe economic crisis.

URL in Dutch..


Gandalf the White (1/19/06; 10:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 140631)
Looks as if "VOLATILITY" is the norm now ! <;-)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
Nice US$ WATERFALL today !
<;-)


Buongiorno! (1/19/06; 09:24:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 140630)
Pritcho 627
Concur with Russell--usually do.

You are another matter. "Neocon rubbish" may be a violation of forum decorum, or do mannerly forms of address only apply to those with whom we agree? We shall see. By the way, how IS the view from the top of your nice mountain?

The nice statistics on nuclear weapons miss the point---we don't WANT Iran to get them, get it? N. Korea was not on your list. They are thought to have several weapons now which they did not possess some few years back. Now, which snake would you rather deal with? (With, or without?)

Given your weak excuses for Mr. Ahmadinejaid, I can never understand why some folks deem to dislike their friends and love nut case dictators.

"Iran has not invaded any countries...."---uh, not lately. (Think of them as Persia....)

"I hope not to make profits from the suffering of others...." So it is back to the top of the mountain, is it? (Might want some eyeglasses for that smug myopia.)

No one wants others to suffer. But, most of us have no power to change anything, just to prepare as best we can. If we see a train wreck coming and get off that train,we take no joy in being correct. Just glad to get off that train. Islamo-fascists are taught to hate us deeply. I wish it were otherwise. Once, a great battles were fought at Port Moresby and Coral Sea. Glad we sorta won. Sorry the twin towers got hit. Would not like to see that kind of hate backed by nuclear weapons--anywhere!

What shall I do? Picks me up a few scraps of gold and silver when fortunate enough to do so and hope the train wreck never happens. Puts me hope in one hand, the gold in the other, though.
Buongiorno!



bskija (1/19/06; 05:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 140629)
Trucks and Helicopters
Trucks and Helicopters
(Yesterday) When I say trucks and Bernanke says helicopters, we don't mean trucks and helicopters. In my writing I'm saying what would happen if the world loses faith in the dollar in a risible way. With Bernanke's helicopters, he is saying seriously that he will fight inflation with no holds barred. There will no trucks or helicopters involved.


Belgian (1/19/06; 04:40:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140628)
Freegold
When the entire world CAN go "out" of the dollar..."into" gold, you have FREEGOLD ! Emphasis on - can go-.
This wasn't possible in the period 1957 - 1974. Today one can.


PRITCHO (1/19/06; 03:09:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 140627)
From Richard Russells Latest Comments (Jan 18th) - -and A Reply to Buongiorno re post 140602
http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsf
I thought it very interesting that RR highlighted the article below in his comments & called it a mind-blower.I agree with Belgian that most here had the gist of it a long time ago.Seeing it spelt out so clearly though made it worth reading -again!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/petrov011606.html
-----------------------------------------------------------
Snip:
Speaking of oil (and I'll be speaking lot about oil), I urge all subscribers to turn to the Gold-Eagle site and read carefully the article, "The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse." by Krassimar Petrov. This is a most important article, actually a mind-blower.

Question -- Russell, you've talked a lot about gold and oil, and you've shown charts of the dollar and you've talked about the dollar. How do you feel about the dollar?

Answer -- Interesting question. For the first time since I started investing back in the mid-1940's I find that I feel "nervous" about the dollar. Maybe I'm just a nervous kind of guy, but I've never felt this way before about holding dollars. Honestly, there are just a lot of things about the dollar and the background of the dollar that bother the heck out of me.

What this has done is that it has moved me into a larger position in both gold and oil than I would normally take. You see, I've reversed the situation, and now I ask myself, "Just how big a position in dollars am I willing to hold? Or do I feel SAFER in gold and gold shares and oil stocks? And my answer to myself is that I definitely feel safer in gold, the metal, than I do in dollars. And yeah, that's a NEW feeling, but to tell you the truth -- I really don't feel comfortable holding "too many" dollars.

Furthermore, the current veritable explosion in the M-3 money supply worries me. The money supply is rocketing higher today while business is still good. What will the Fed do if business begins to slump, say this year or next? Yeah, the truth -- today I feel safer in gold than in dollars.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As for the Buongiorno! post:(Usual neocon rubbish repeated)
Snip:
"Delivery systems are the reason I fear a nuclear Iran more than Iraq. My limited understanding is that Iran has some missiles that would certainly threaten Israel and Europe--possibly the US. Others? "
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reply In a Nutshell:
Nuclear Weapons Count - - Who's the danger?

USA - - -- - 10,350!

Israel -- - 200 plus http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/

Iran - - - 0

Ahmadinejad was democratically elected, but since taking office, he has ignited an international firestorm by saying Israel should be "wiped off the map" and calling the Jewish holocaust "a myth." He was actually taken out of context as he was referring to the words of a previous religious leader. No matter, he has not backed away & clearly believes that Iran should not be dictated to by Washington or its pit bull nominee Israel.(I agree)

Clearly, a leader who utters such "dangerous nonsense" as Ahmadinejad cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons. Iranians would reply that, unlike the U.S., Iran has not invaded any other countries. Speaking of dangerous nonsense, was it not U.S. President George Bush who claimed Iraq had WMDs that menaced the world? Or that Iraqi germ-dispensing drones were poised to attack a sleeping America?

I hope not to make a profit on PRECIOUS METALS because of more suffering from a 3rd world country.Pity others weren't so predisposed.





Goldilox (1/19/06; 02:29:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 140626)
THE LOOMING FIAT CURRENCY TRAIN WRECK
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2006/0116.html
snip:

While the bulk of the Western World's main stream media continues to make pronouncements about the price of both crude oil and gold continuing to rise as a result of Iran's nuclear aspirations – they have completely and utterly ignored the stark, dark reality of the currency train wreck [that is empirically only beginning to unfold] right in front of our eyes.

Iran's Potential Influence

So Just How Much Oil Does Iran Produce Per Day Anyway? Well, let's ask the experts over at the U.S. Department of Energy [DOE] – shall we?

In 2003, Persian Gulf countries had estimated net oil exports of 17.2 million bbl/d of oil (see pie chart). Saudi Arabia exported the most oil of any Persian Gulf country in 2003, with an estimated 8.40 million bbl/d (49% of the total). Also, Iran had estimated net exports of about 2.6 million bbl/d (15%), followed by the United Arab Emirates (2.4 million bbl/d -- 14%), Kuwait (2.0 million bbl/d -- 12%), Iraq (0.9 million bbl/d -- 9%), Qatar (0.9 million bbl/d -- 5%), and Bahrain (0.01 million bbl/d -- 0.1%).

Now let's take a look at what 2.6 million barrels of oil per day is really worth in term of "potential new Euro demand" anyway? Here is the math:

2,600,0000 x 60.00/barrel x 30 [days per month.] x 12 [months per yr.]

TOTAL = 56.16 BILLION [ANNUALIZED] WORTH OF NEW EURO DEMAND

Now I don't know about you folks, but where I come from, 56 Billion still buys a whole lot of love and respect.

Now, Let's Take A Look At Venezuela

Let's get the lay of the land, so to speak, right from the horse's [Chavez's] mouth – 1.5 million barrels of Venezuelan crude [60 % of production] is currently purchased by the US of A each and every day. At 60.00 per barrel, this amounts to 60 x 1,500,000 x 30 [days per month] = 2.7 billion per month Worth of EUROS [32.4 BILLION WORTH ANNUALIZED]. This is simply the amount of Euros the US will need to purchase [read: print] or borrow to maintain its current quota of Venezuelan crude should Chavez sell all output for Euros. Additionally, the balance of Venezuelan crude will fetch another [60.00 x 1,000,000 x 30] = 1.8 billion per month worth of Euros the rest of the world will need to purchase said oil, or, A FURTHER 21.6 BILLION ANNUALIZED. So folks, cumulatively – in the case of Venezuela alone – we are potentially talking somewhere in the neighborhood of NEW DEMAND FOR EUROS OF 54 BILLION US DOLLAR EQUIVALENT PER YEAR.

Oh well, at least the Fed will save a few nickels and will no longer be publishing M3 [money supply] data. If you can't see the money printing – I guess it can't hurt you, eh?

Step A Little Further Back, Shall We?

In big round numbers, daily global oil production runs in the area of 82 million barrels of oil per day. The U.S. consumes approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day – yet only produces [domestically] about 5.4 million.

How often are we bombarded with the "clap trap" – not to worry - that rising crude oil prices self serve to reduce demand [consumption]? Seems to me, forever! Meanwhile, the empirical realities suggest COMPLETELY THE OPPOSITE where oil is concerned. LOOK AT THE GRAPH!

Compliments: M.W.Hodges, The Grandfather Report

While the price of crude oil has increased dramatically over the past 5 years – U.S. consumption has factually grown. Also, by looking at the production line in the chart above – we have a crystal clear illustration of exactly what "Peak Oil" really is – right in front of our noses!

Imagine, main stream pundits continue to speak of interest rate conundrums without even mentioning the 300+ TRILLION U.S. GORILLA [interest rate derivatives – swaps] sitting on top of the interest rate complex. Why has no one stopped to investigate or explain the cancerous growth [123 Trillion at Q3/03 – now exceeding 300 Trillion [Q3/05] - pg. 47 of 126]? Also, the most recent rise in the price of gold – the main stream media would have us believe it is wholly attributable to increased nuclear tensions with Iran – failing to mention a well documented 16,000ish ton short of physical metal on the part of Western Central Banks?

In addition, has anyone not noticed that while "officially" inflation continues to be reported in benign terms [around 2% - core rate?] – the cost of virtually EVERYTHING [except DVD players] from health care to insurance/professional premiums to copper to real estate and municipal taxes keeps going up?

Misreporting, denial and refusal to admit that our markets have been hijacked - rigged and ‘stick handled’ is EXACTLY WHAT HAS CREATED THE BULK OF THE PROBLEMS WE NOW FIND OURSELVES FACING. Oil is slated to begin trading for Petro-Euros on March 20, 2006.

Put simply, we just don't have much time left to "start getting it right". In Fed ‘baseball parlance’ – it's the bottom of the ninth, the count is full and the sacs are drunk - but does anyone really know what the score is?

-Goldilox

Perhaps more than just the "sacs" are drunk? Is that a light at the end of the tunnel, or just an oncoming train?


Goldilox (1/19/06; 02:22:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 140625)
Market Wrapup
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snip:

Stocks are off to a rough start following disappointing results from Yahoo and Intel, Google was downgraded, and last night there was another major sell-off with stocks in Japan. Sell orders flooded the floor in Tokyo forcing the Nikkei lower by 3% with trading halted by an early close. As you might expect, CNBC reports the markets are overreacting and investors should not panic by selling their stocks. Wall Street is a perpetual selling machine that would have you invested in stocks at all times. According to the perpetual bulls, this is just another buying opportunity for tech stocks and financials. Just remember they really don't care about you or your portfolio. They are more concerned about profits for themselves using your money! Mainstreamers on Wall Street will rarely tell you to buy gold and silver or mining/resource stocks to protect your assets.

Economic news today has the Labor Department reporting an unexpected decline in consumer prices with the Consumer Price Index falling for a second straight month. The headline CPI number fell 0.1% in December following a 0.6% decline in November. I would be very surprised to hear people say that their monthly bills are falling right along with the inflation data. This is a manipulated number by the government, so you can believe them or you can look at your monthly expenses and decide for yourself. The mainstream media is painting this to be a positive story because it means the Fed will back off the measured interest rate increases sooner rather than later.

The ABC/Washington Post consumer comfort index fell sharply last week to -13. The state of the economy and the buying climate both fell to -24 and personal finances fell four points to +8. This follows ten weeks of improvement in the comfort index. I believe it is more than a coincidence that consumer comfort was moving higher all the way through the Holiday Shopping Season…as oil was "managed" to stay under $60 a barrel so consumers would open their wallets to shop ‘till they drop! Some analysts suspect oil was covertly released from the strategic petroleum reserve during the shopping season, and now they need to top-off the tanks before the war with Iran begins. Covert releases from the SPR would be synonymous with central bank leases and sales of gold to keep the price down, thereby giving the dollar more credibility.

Gold and silver are selling lower today because of the muted inflation data. Bloomberg News reports as follows: "Gold Declines the Most in Almost Two Weeks as Inflation Concerns Subside." The opening sentence to the article reads, "Gold in New York fell 1.5 percent, the most in almost two weeks, as U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in December, eroding the precious metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation." Frankly, I've been expecting a short-term correction in the metals, but still see much higher prices later this year. The extent of the correction will depend mostly on geopolitical developments, especially with regard to Iran. Gold and silver are much more than a hedge against inflation…they are REAL MONEY! Fiat currencies around the globe are "funny-money" compared to the hard currencies of gold and silver. If you want currency protection, buy gold and silver. I will increase my exposure to precious metals stocks when it looks like this short-term correction has run its course . . . .


Have you ever wondered how it is that the President is able to write executive orders that work to circumvent the Constitution? The short answer is simple…the USA is bankrupt! We live in a constant state of "national emergency" wherein our Presidents believe they have the right to set up dictatorial powers for the executive office. This all goes back to FDR in 1933 that imposed the War Powers Act for a state of economic emergency, not a military emergency. Don't take my word for it; you can begin your homework with all the details found at a very interesting website called the Library of Halexandria. This link will take you directly to the bankruptcy of the USA, executive orders and where martial law comes into play.

Frankly folks, I am a bit concerned I am losing my objectivity for analyzing the macro picture in the financial markets. I'm no rocket scientist in finances or the economy; I just report on things I have learned in seeking to find TRUTH in all the propaganda we hear from the mainstream press. I received an e-mail many weeks ago when someone read my Wrap-Up and commented that I was pessimistic about where stocks and the dollar are headed. He said I've been predicting an economic/financial crisis for at least a year now, but the dollar and stocks just keep going higher.

After much thought I responded to the e-mail by saying, "I simply don't understand how the powers that be can keep juggling the enormous global imbalances in the financial markets…most notably unbridled U.S. consumption via continued increases in debt. Since when can a person or entity borrow their way to prosperity?

The answer is quite complex and has to do with the U.S. dollar acting as the sole reserve currency for the world. Global trade is denominated in U.S. dollars, but there are some very powerful forces that would like to change the way business is done around the world. The first group that comes to mind is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with members such as Russia, China, Iran, India and loosely with Venezuela and others. A year ago our Congressmen were getting heavy handed with China to revalue the yuan, but lately you don't hear much about it. They wanted to impose a 27.5% import tariff on all Chinese goods and now they are silent, along with Treasury Secretary Snow saying China doesn't manipulate their currency. I wonder what China had to say behind the scenes to Mr. Snow?

I still believe stocks and the dollar will tumble unless the Feds step in and monetize U.S. assets that are dumped by foreigners. That's probably the reason the Fed will stop reporting the M-3 money supply in March. Get ready for "Helicopter Ben" to take the reins of the Federal Reserve in a couple weeks.

-Goldilox

Mike Hartman, one of Puplava's usually conservative analysts, also covers the Iran risk and the recurring debt ceiling issue. I left behind the MORE political parts. Collectively reading 60M internet locations, the Web bots are suggesting the "emotive state" of the US populace is very near the point of "ENOUGH, already!" - usually not a good sign for markets.


Belgian (1/19/06; 02:02:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 140624)
The London Gold Pool actions revisited....
...But with ONE single major difference : CBs are NOT going to "manage-control" what was formerly called -monetary gold-. Fasten your seat belts !



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