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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/19/2005 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) slingshot (8/19/05; 23:20:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 135143) Take notice you Lurkers O.K. Slingshot has gone over the edge. But wait a minute. Thick about this? Is the dealer obligated to fill the first order or the largest order? Not only that can the order be completed in substitution. Pandas for Maples? Could there be a price variance when 1/10th are use to fill 1 ounce contract. Just because you have one ounce of gold does not mean you have paid for one ounce of gold. By spot.Slingshot-------------<> slingshot (8/19/05; 22:53:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 135142) To the Oaken Table of Yore As a lower Knight of the Table. I come forth to ask a question of the Table Round. Seeking only probalities and not certaincies. I have answered the call of each of your requests (Contests) as have many Knights and Ladies. Rewarded in kind for their most noble guess and reply to your question. In all due respect, My Lords, it is time to ask, How will the Forum evolve to help those in dire straits? When GOLD starts its upturn. This is not an attack nor an attempt to corner USAGOLD.Only to understand how you will handle the coming crisis as you precieve it.MarkeTalk, Towncrier, and Sir M.K.Slingshot-----------<> slingshot (8/19/05; 21:01:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 135141) Last post My apology, Please follow the bandwith to the the bottom. It all interconnects.Slingshot----------<> slingshot (8/19/05; 20:53:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 135140) Facets of a Goldbug http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/worldburns.html A very long read but just may put all the feelings of a goldbug into one commentary.Slingshot--------<> Druid (8/19/05; 19:49:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 135139) TC Druid: Thanks for the excellent commentary concerning Greenspan's "conundrum" and how the CB's might be using longer-term credit in the fashion you described to buy time for the coming metal re-val. Personally, I think Greenspan's trying to accomplish a few things on the short end of the credit spread. First, is to go after the hedge fund and speculating crowd that is giving him so much hell on the short end. He mentioned this fact in one of his speeches in Europe. I don't think he's trying to defend the dollar or take out the housing bubble with this strategy although that is what it might appear that he's doing and reported as such in bubblevision.Second, a yield inversion would wreak havoc on the speculating crowd but create an opportunity for another round of refinancing among the consuming public which would go a long way in buying more time for CB portfolio adjustment that is currently in progress. The idiots caught up in the housing bubble will have their day but not today. In my opinion, Greenspan and his Magi's are going after the sharks and these people are playing in the derivative's markets. He's trying to target shoot his game with these baby steps in raising rates.Personally, I'd like to see him take the machine gun approach (Volcker) and raise rates 3 or 4 points at one time to see what he can break in the paper economy. Oh well back to my cave. Sundeck (8/19/05; 19:15:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 135138) Dynamic conundrum http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html Someone, a year or so ago, posted this link to the dynamic yield curve...enables a dynamic view of the "emergent properties", i.e. the yield curve, but not the underlying causes...:-) TownCrier (8/19/05; 18:47:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 135137) HDFC Bank raises bar with gold http://www.telegraphindia.com/1050820/asp/business/story_5134753.asp Mumbai, Aug. 19 (PTI): HDFC Bank will launch ‘mudra’ — a service that will offer branded five-gram gold bars with a purity of 99.9 per cent. ...Launched to coincide with the beginning of the festive season, the gold sale plan will play out in 160 branches in Mumbai, Delhi, Calcutta, Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad from August 27. HDFC Bank plans to expand the service to other cities."The product is ideal for customers who have been demanding purity in gold for investment purposes," Shyamal Saxena HDFC Bank's head of retail liabilities, said.^----(from url)----^Indian savers understand the unique and enduring value of tangible property.Don't be left out in the cold. Make sure your golden savings are physical -- and too heavy to hold!R. USAGOLD Daily Market Report (8/19/05; 18:40:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 135136) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.Friday Market ExcerptsAugust 19 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Friday to end the week with a cumulative 2% loss, pressured by some strength in the U.S. dollar and by overall weakness in crude-oil prices this week."Gold put in its highs early in the week and is in the process of testing major support areas," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group."The market seems to be shrugging off the inflationary implications of crude and higher interest rates," he said, adding that the session's weakness marks a "technical correction.""Gold is holding on the technical levels it needs to," Nedoss said.COMEX December gold futures closed at $442.20, down $2.50.(from DowJones) -- Gold futures finished lower in New York on Friday, pulled down by weakness for much of the day in the euro. Some fund selling was reported in thin trading conditions, exaggerating the move."The dollar was stronger earlier," said Dave Rinehimer, director of futures research with Citigroup Global Markets. This tends to hurt precious metals."There hasn't been too much reaction to the strong recovery in energy prices today," he added.As gold was closing, September crude was up roughly $2 for the day.A trader said a couple of funds appeared to be selling gold. "There was very little liquidity on the exchange," he said."I think the move was probably exaggerated today. I don't think that much was going on. A couple of big players were pushing it down a little bit and they didn't run into too many bids on the way down."---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)--- TownCrier (8/19/05; 18:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 135135) Thanks for the positive "conundrum" feedback http://www.usagold.com/analysis/strauss-20050819.html Here is a link to assist with future access. Additional expositionary material, including Greenspan comments and a chart, have been added to the original commentary.R. Clink! (8/19/05; 18:05:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 135133) Oh, you beat me to it ! A bit like Rorschasch (sp?) patterns aren't they. What do others see hidden in there ?C! Clink! (8/19/05; 18:02:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 135132) @ Gandalf http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10 Hey, Gandy - a new chart formation for you. The Golden Gate Bridge ! (And a three quarters shot at that).C! Gandalf the White (8/19/05; 17:56:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 135131) WOWSERS --- Roller coasters !!! http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10 US$ chart ? Goldilox (8/19/05; 16:52:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 135130) Chinese dollar deals @ Cobra (too),Although CNOOC-UnoCal hogged all the press, I posted a list of busted China oil deals the other day. There were about a dozen of them listed. It must be getting pretty frustrating trying to trade with "Monopoly Money"! Boilermaker (8/19/05; 16:46:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 135129) Foreign Holdings of USTreasury Securities http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt Check out the bottom lines on the TIC link. Recent data on foreign holdings of Treasuries are confirming TC's hypothesis this year. T-Bills were 19.6% of foreign holdings in January 05 but were only 16.7% in June 05. The total has been nearly static this year. I'm worried. Who's going to fund poor old Boilermaker's lifestyle. God bless whoever has taken up the challenge. :-) Goldilox (8/19/05; 16:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 135128) Bond Curve Inversion @ Rich P,Actually, I think it opened up the last couple of days. I noticed Weds or Thurs that it was in the high 11's.We're definitely getting close to actual inversion.Let's see - lend them $100K for 5 years at 4% or 10 years at 4% or less?I'm not sure why that's even a question, but I am studying TC's explanation to see if I "GET IT". - LOL R Powell (8/19/05; 16:15:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 135127) Conumdrum Clearly it continues to confound + confuse.... 10 year yield = 4.211 5 year yield = 4.079 Difference continues to contract, now calculated @0.132 or 0.132 percent. Why? What does this mean? + Happy weekend...! rich Topaz (8/19/05; 16:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 135126) Another marker "on the Trail" Is Sept Futures Options OI ...very low in a non-delivery month indicating Metal rather than Money is the driving force du-jour. otish mountain (8/19/05; 16:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 135125) @Belgian,TC,CB2 Belgian:Thank you friend, I ask for a morsel and am served a 5 star meal.TC: Absolute brilliance, only here at this forum is the thinking far ahead of the crowd. Blazing Trails that are yet to be discovered. Thank You.CB2: Funny you should mention Ian Notley. Have read his Notes for years now and find every page has a thousand words Topaz (8/19/05; 15:56:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 135124) CB's ...Market movers or smoovers? http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png Yup, good perspective Randy ...I didn't intend to indicate the Forum was ho-hum today (as it appeared) ...as your post was clearly a delightful "gift".CoT OI, given Tuesdays report would be currently nearing or beating the #^)K top earlier this year ...(HA!, the "Dude wearing Shades" is really 350). Our CRB daily hasn't updated yet but I'd guess it to be so.This poses a real dilemma @ Comex "at this time" with an oxymoronic -Spot needs to rise, Dec needs to drop- situation. Ned (8/19/05; 15:48:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 135123) Great message TC, question about this part: "Subsequently, they would be advised to shift their U.S. debt holdings out to the long end of the yield curve so as to eke out the highest possible interest rate earnings for as long as the system holds together.In doing so, yes, they would cause the seemingly "unnatural" flattening of the yield curve, but it is indeed quite natural if you are seeing it as described here."Making the best out of a bad situation, I suppose. Here's the part I'm not getting. So CB's are crowding into the long end, driving long-term rates down. Now if Greenspan is not so hell bent on a strong dollar anymore and if inflation is truely not an issue why keep driving the short end up? I suppose if your CB/long end theory is correct then Greenspan must attract the short end in some fashion. Something must keep this trade deficit in balance. I hear the likes of Sinclair talking incessantly about the 'TIC', so is it possible the CB's falling off to the long end creates the void at the near end as confirmed by the absence of foreign capital in the TIC report and confirmed by the rapidly rising short-term interest rates?Sounds like a mouthful and I think I've got myself sufficiently wrapped up in a knot. I'm stuck on Pierre Lassonde boldly predicting $525 POG by January and wonder what's his claim? The other thing that's gaining ground is this Iranian 'oil bourse'. I was off on holidays this week, spent a pile of time investigating Iran's so-called nuclear activities. This 'uranium enrichment' process, which is fascinating in itself, seems to co-incide with Lassonde's January gold call. So I've got to wondering lately if we are to see another war or if this monetary implosion is set for the winter 2005/spring 2006?Thoughts?Have a golden weekend. Topaz (8/19/05; 15:03:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 135122) For a Systemic Voyeur... ...it's like Christmas every day.I so look forward to the Hour or so I can squeeze in of a morning, before heading off to work. Eagerly firing up the 'pute...and checking the Charts/Forum rekindles those long past memories of, on Xmas morn, ripping off the paper on the Presents to reveal their contents. Some would be just ho-hum whilst others would be "just the thing" you wanted.This particular morning (here) was basically a "socks 'n undies" event ...however, the beauty of this groundhog dayesque Xmas morning scenario is, Tomorrows array of Presents will surely surprise and delight. Belgian (8/19/05; 14:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 135121) TC msg# 135117 Not the first time that you communicate your brilliant insights into the gold-matters. But this time you formulated it as pure and refined as bullion's fineness ...a 24 carat post, Sir ! Magnificent.This is exactly what is happening...disciplined and orderly. No conondrum for you of course. Your conclusion (one and only) is the result of intelligent deductive thinking after having gathered all possible significant facts. There's only a very small (neglectable) probability left for having it (the final conclusion) wrong.I've been thinking about the context in wich the recent 30 tonnes Belgian gold were sold/committed. It nicely fits into the general idea expressed in your msg. CBs ARE FAR FROM STUPID ! When their present system shows sign of failure...they already have an alternative in place. Pure evolution theory and practice.Thank you Sir. CoBra(too) (8/19/05; 14:09:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 135120) TC - Excellent Post ... Though as it may happen, some of the big players may lose confidence in the reserve currency or just get annoyed that they are blocked to spend their surplus reserves on whatever they feel would be in their interest.The aborted Unocal deal was such an instance, which may bring down the house of cards prematurely. If you can't spend your accrued reserve currency paper at will and for assets benefitting your own economic strategy - then the currency's viability and utility may just be swept away as the proverbial carpet under your feet.The flattening of the yield curve, IMHO, just takes away another carry trade from the hedgies; A problem which is countered by still more leverage to make a buck!The lemurs are speeding to the brink of their particular cliff. Good riddance, though be prepared and get your insurance in Gold. BTW - Rob Kirby had a great article on freemarketnews on asset allocation, where gold was considered as an asset class and portfolio insurance again in a few decades.All lights green for gold - any dips are to be bought - says Ian Notely - cheers cb2 mikal (8/19/05; 14:03:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 135119) Tracking patterns of trading http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/calendar.html 2005 Options Expiration CalendarSequences of last trading day and expiration day, so far follow predictable patterns. Goldilox (8/19/05; 13:38:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 135118) Politics or Diplomacy? @ TC,"It would seem that politics in America has become a lost art."I was watching CSPAN day before yesterday and saw Christopher Hill, the lead ambassador to the Six-Nation talks with North Korea. He seemed to be a very lucid and intelligent representative.It makes me wonder if the "politics" are rendering "diplomacy" less effective?Excellent analysis of the CB dollar and "bond conundrum", by the way. TownCrier (8/19/05; 13:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 135117) The point of it being... (plus a few words on "The Conundrum") With our currency serving as an international reserve asset at the pleasure of those who hold it, what's to happen when these entities become sufficiently displeased?Food for thought on the flat U.S. yield-curve conundrum:Say, for example, that entities such as China or the euro-area already have their sights set on a paradigm shift away from a dollar-centric reserve structure.Say, also, that they realize they are largely trapped in their dollar position, a quagmire of dollar holdings which are too large to meaningfully liquidate without invoking a precipitous plunge in value on the U.S. Dollar/bond market. Effectively, they would be left holding the bag -- sitting on a huge smoking pile of worthless reserves, the marketplace finally being brought to acknowledge what these CBs knew all along.Therefore, since the CBs KNOW that they are largely trapped in this position, if they had a TownCrier on their staff, they would surely have been advised to take measure to make the best of it.That is to say, they would be advised to abandon their old tenets of central banking which favor liquidity (i.e., short-dated Treasury bills and notes) on the grounds that liquidity has become a minor concern in contrast to the valuation concern.Subsequently, they would be advised to shift their U.S. debt holdings out to the long end of the yield curve so as to eke out the highest possible interest rate earnings for as long as the system holds together.In doing so, yes, they would cause the seemingly "unnatural" flattening of the yield curve, but it is indeed quite natural if you are seeing it as described here.Furthermore, in bringing down the long-dated interest rates, these clever CBs would be causing the rest of the ill-informed world to have and maintain an unfounded high level of confidence in the strength and fate of the dollar.This, my friends, would play into the CBs advantage as it buys them time, allowing them to achieve a greater shift in their reserve structure than they would have be able to otherwise. That is, in keeping the long end of the yield curve strong, the confidence this inspires for the dollar in global markets helps them liquidate the shorter-term holdings into strength, and more importantly, the illusion of a fundamentally strong dollar helps keep the gold market liquid.As we've explained before, gold can flow most easily when regular investors aren't excited. And to be sure, a network of CBs who are determined to achieve a necessary reallocation of vital gold reserves certainly isn't going to let those competing investors get excited and interrupt their gold flows by something as mundane as a runaway gold price when it is so easily controllable through their banking network and the current pricing mechanism.Thus, I would say to you, use this current era to your full advantage -- use the carefully-crafted illusion of the strong dollar and the carefully-crafted illusion of weak gold to shift out of the overvalued paper and into the underpriced metal.When the day arrives that the CBs have achieved an adequate degree of reallocations, their escape from the dollar quagmire will be effectively accomplished as a sudden elevation in the MTM value of gold holdings (upon a "free (physical) gold" pricing mechanism) will compensate their balance sheets for the precipitous MTM losses of the dollar piles which are still on their books.The only real question is, why don't you hear this tale in any other venue or hall? It could be that some things are simply not meant to be known to a wider audience. (Or maybe that TC has fallen off his rocker and scrambled his noodle?)Time will tell.Choose gold, and choose the firm that tries to invest its time to do more for you -- choose USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals for the best product at the best prices.Call toll free 1-800-869-5115R. mikal (8/19/05; 12:50:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 135116) Conference Board cop out http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/08/revised_leading.html The Big Picture Weblog: Mis-Leading Economic Indicators - August 19, 2005"Surprise! The revised Leading Economic Indicators increased." TownCrier (8/19/05; 12:26:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 135115) Sundeck (msg#: 135108), China apparently enjoying EU's Baltics as a "Condoleeza-free Zone" http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2005081814560007&Take=1 HEADLINE: Chinese Foreign Min Praises Lithuania's Economic GrowthVILNIUS, Lithuania (AP)--Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing met with Lithuanian leaders on Thursday to discuss strengthening business ties and other issues.Li, who visited Estonia earlier this week and headed to Latvia later Thursday, met with Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus and Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas and praised Lithuania's economic growth and said he hoped the two countries could strengthen business ties.He said Lithuania was becoming an attractive destination for Chinese tourists since it joined the European Union last year."We share same values and opinions, it is even hard to find a topic we would disagree about", Li said.^---(from url)----^Without complicating negotiations with a backdrop of hypocrisy and arrogance which you've pointed out, the article goes on to say "Lithuanian leaders and Li were expected to discuss Lithuanian manufacturers' concerns about an influx of cheap Chinese textiles and electronics that has flooded the European market."Something about honey vs. vinegar... It would seem that politics in America has become a lost art.R. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/19/05; 11:34:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 135114) Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!! http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html Druid (8/19/05; 09:41:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 135113) Special Policy Brief 26 http://www.financialpolicy.org/fpfspb26.htm Rumors and News:Credit Derivatives Trigger Near System Meltdown Randall Dodd, DirectorFinancial Policy Forum August 5, 2005 Rumors started circulating two months ago concerning the possible failure of several large hedge funds and massive losses by at least one major global bank. The source of the troubles was a free-fall in prices in the credit derivatives market that was triggered by the downgrading of GM and Ford. The financial system ended up dodging a systemic meltdown, but without proper coverage and analysis of the events there will be no lessons for policy makers to learn. This Special Policy Brief is an attempt to put these rumors together in order to tell a coherent story. The purpose is to show how the events posed a severe threat to the stability of our financial markets and overall economy. The narrative also should help illustrate the market problems with these non-transparent markets organized around dealers with no commitment to market participants to maintain orderly and liquid markets. During these May events, there were only rumors because this "near-systemic meltdown" – in the words of a senior representative of the securities industry – occurred in OTC derivatives markets where there are no reporting requirements and hence no real transparency. Instead of news and facts, it was rumors that circulated. First the rumors were of one hedge fund failing, and then another. As the New York Times (May 12, 2005) put it, "One firm that was the subject of rumors was Highbridge Capital Management." Highbridge, which manages a reported $7 billion in hedge fund investments, had to send out a reassuring letter to investors denying the rumors. GLG Partners – a London hedge fund owned by Lehman Brothers known to have suffered enormous losses – was also the subject of such rumors. More alarming were rumors that Deutsche Bank had lost $500 million on its own account from trading in credit derivatives and that it faced further losses through a default from its prime broker relationship with an unnamed hedge fund – its stock slid 3% as a result. Kim Rupert, analyst at Action Economics, put it this way, "There could be pretty substantial problems given the size of the moves… At this point we're trying to figure out whether this is just the tip of the iceberg and how big this iceberg may be."[1] A few journalists cautiously reported this, but were constrained by the lack of factual information and flat denials or refusals to comment by those targeted by the rumors. Being long rumors and short facts is not the basis for sound journalism. And it is made all the more acute because so few journalists feel comfortable talking about the intricacies of derivatives markets and especially credit derivatives. ****************Druid: Enjoy the read. "They" kept this one pretty hushed. Goldilox (8/19/05; 08:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 135112) Real Estate vs. Stocks One of CBNC's more lame 20 second slots just aired a superficial comparo of the S&P's 15% long-term growth rate vs. Real Estate's 7% LT rate. The reason given for RE as the flavor du jour was tax benefits.I dropped my jaw when they neglected "leverage" as a driver. With many RE loans featuring "zero down" and "negative amortization", RE specs are jumping on the "free bets" like Casino perks. Is this resemblence more than casual? Goldilox (8/19/05; 08:08:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 135111) "Smooth Transitions" and "Free Tade" As I am beginning to see "Free Trade" as a NeoCon Orwellism for "Free Labor", I penned this rythmic description:They "leveled the players" with NAFTA,And toasted Bacardi to CAFTA.But the pickings are leanIn this Job-jacked machine.So take any old job 'cause you HAFTA! Belgian (8/19/05; 07:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 135110) @Topaz > smooth transition...? Very little faith but more pragmatism. Why : The ongoing problems do affect (concern) the entire globe ! This specific type of war on terror is going to solve/change nothing. And Pax Americana knows very well where its limits are...not in the least because of the true nature of 9/11.This looks much more like an environment where one rather behaves pragmatic.Of course, there are some wild dogs out there. So far, they are only barking whilst the caravan proceeds.If more war is in the cards...still nothing would change the ongoing transitions (power shifts). Why have more war on top of it ? Very unpragmatic, no.I still remain rational in my (personal) conclusions after my (very limited) observations. Sundeck (8/19/05; 07:04:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 135109) I'm no Robbie Burns... Lest I too be perceived somewhat arrogant...please ignore the second occurrence "Robbie Burns" from my last post.:-(Only Sundeck Sundeck (8/19/05; 06:55:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 135108) Rice Warns China to Make Major Economic Changes http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/19/politics/19china.html?th&emc=th&oref=login Snips:"...Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned this week that China must make significant structural changes in its economic policies, lest it remain "a problem for the international economy."In an interview on Wednesday, Ms. Rice also laid out the administration's concerns about China's military buildup, its human rights record and its restrictions on religious freedom. Her unusually sharp criticism was a clear indication of the administration's ambivalence and frustration with China, even as officials prepare for a state visit next month by the president of China, Hu Jintao, his first visit since taking office in 2003...."The overwhelming sense I got was that they do not want a conflict with the United States," Mr. Zoellick said. But he said that he, too, "tried to get them to see how their actions are perceived by the other side,"......Ms. Rice, like Mr. Zoellick, said she told China's leaders in her recent meetings with them that they should heed the warnings from Congress and elsewhere. Even though the administration opposes the Graham-Schumer bill, Ms. Rice said she told the Chinese leaders "Don't ignore what people are saying to you about the problems of a Chinese economy that is both big and unreformed."We remind them that the president is a free trader, but he is a free trader who believes there has to be a level playing field for American workers and farmers and American goods." ..."Sundeck: Mmmmm...am I imagining it, or is there just a touch of the arrogance of empire in Ms Rice's (and Mr Zoellick's) motherly and fatherly advice? Now let me see...China's 1.2B people have descended in an unbroken stream of civilisation for some 10,000 years while the USA (in its present imperial state) is all of 400 years old. You might say that China "invented" civilisation. Sure, there have been many upheavals and reformations along the way and, at present, China is emerging (remarkably successfully) from its most recent one. "Military buildup?" "Human rights?" "Religious freedom?" Come now Ms Rice...is that not the pot calling the kettle "black"? Which country, may I ask you, sits atop the Tower of Military Babel...and which country is yet to fully realise "The Dream" of its untimely-deceased black King. Really, Ms Rice, cannot you see yourself for the ineffectual fool that you are...Oh don't worry, I am not "anti-American"...we have the tendency to lecture China here in Australia too...our present Foreign Minister (a tribute to what good schooling can do with dull material) has done it lots; although, I must say, recently, he has been trying to have a foot on either side of the barbed-wire fence. (Mmmm...couldn't happen to a nicer guy.)And there you have the long and the short of international politics: "perception" and "expediency" over truth and honesty any day... And that's also a flaw in Democracy: Why shouldn't the head donkey bray at the Moon... knowing that they are in a dark field populated with a majority of donkeys!I wonder whether the foreign ministers of the Spain of Philip II; or of the Great Britain of Queen Victoria; or of the Moghul India of Aurangzeb; or of the Byzantium of Romanus II; issued similar lectures to neighbouring states...no doubt they did...it's called "the arrogance of empire" at its peak..."O wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us An foolish notion: What airs in dress an gait wad lea'es us, An ev'n devotion!"Robert Burns:-)Robbie Burns Sundeck (8/19/05; 05:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 135107) In the Long Run, Sleep at Home and Invest in the Stock Market http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/19/realestate/19real.html?pagewanted=1&th&emc=th Snips:"...As the value of real estate has skyrocketed, owners have become enamored of the wealth their homes are creating, with many concluding that real estate is now a safer and better investment than stocks....Since 1980, for example, money invested in the Standard & Poor's 500 has delivered a return of 10 percent a year on average. Including dividends, the return on the S.& P. 500 rises to 12 percent a year. Even in New York and San Francisco, homes have risen in value only about 7 percent a year over the same span. ..."Sundeck: One of a few interesting articles in today's NYT...this one quite good on "housing". It rambles around with various statistics and concepts. Most people (including world-class economists - if that isn't a contradiction in terms) confuse the concept of "house price" and "house value". It is even officially sanctioned on the annual "valuation" statement that I receive from the local government body (Canberra, Australia). The "value" of my house has supposedly increased by quite a lot over the last year...well that is news to me indeed, as I am still using it for exactly the same things that I have always used it for, and as far as I can see, its value hasn't changed at all. What is meant, of course, is that the price many people are prepared to pay for my house has increased significantly from last year. Or, if you like, the "value" of the Ozzie dollar (insofar as it is exchangeable for housing) has diminished significantly! This NYT article raises a lot of issues, giving examples, and comparing house price-increases with stock returns. It concludes that stocks have done better than housing since 1980...which may be correct; but the last 25 years in stocks has seen the greatest bull market EVER!...a circumstance that is still in the process of "correcting". Wait for another ten years and perhaps the Dow will still be sitting stubbornly between 10,000 and 11,000 (flat ... like it was in the '70s) and ask the question then whether stocks have done better than housing?It just demonstrates that bloated (inflated) money supply finds its way into different sectors of the asset spectrum in different epochs....from 1980-2000 it was stocks, from 2000 - 2005 it was housing, from 1980 - 2005 it has also been bonds/treasuries. "Commodities" are also taking off now, and some of this will be due to the inflated money supply and not just demand/supply factors. Gold is starting to respond to the tune, but it is lagging quite a bit...expect more to come as the beat gets louder and people find that the tune is a "catchy" little number...:-) Topaz (8/19/05; 03:18:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 135106) Hey Sir Belgian. As in Death and transformation in the postmodern society? That's the way of it I think mate.I love your faith in smooth transition, whats more I hope you're right. Caradoc (8/19/05; 03:14:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 135105) explosion in Jordan As of just before 2 AM Pacific, various news sources are reporting that a mortar fired at a US Navy ship in Jordan's port of Aq'baa missed its target and instead hit a building. Some reports say "warehouse" and add "no report of casualties."I suspect that those (like me) who suffer from traderitis should consider sticking to the conservative side of things between now and the anniversary of 9-11.Caradoc Topaz (8/19/05; 03:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 135104) TownCrier (8/18/05; 14:11:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 135093) The impression one first gets is that the Market has just to get through to September and then the gold flows as Yr 2 begins.I'd be a little skeptical about that TC.The German recalcitrance this Year has led to other signatories having to put up the metal ..so they're short for next year already!If Germany again pass, making the 2006 quota would look nigh impossible......assuming there IS a next year. Belgian (8/19/05; 02:52:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 135103) ! Topaz : The Gibson - Mr.Rubin paradigm is still in play...but the counter winds become increasingly stronger.Goldendome : There is NO such thing as an "oil-market" ...MARKET !!! Topaz (8/19/05; 02:29:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 135102) altGold. http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st= Any GoldHeart that isn't totally absorbed by this trading activity is simply not watching!!Our altCurrency-Gold spread is again equal to June's largest and a look at the Chart finds this current uptick mimicing June very closely...we're just before the Drop-off.It's so very important to realise WHAT is about to be revealed. Today's action could be a defining moment for PaperGold imo. Goldendome (8/19/05; 00:42:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 135101) Oil production and export disruption Ecuador:Protesters demonstrating for more equitable distribution of oil revenues have shut down production and export of oil from this Northern South American country.Ecuador, a small producer by some world standards, still has been exporting around 150,000 barrels a day of crude oil, mainly to the United States. Will this unexpected protest be long and significant enough to once again cause a jump in crude prices on world markets? We'll see. Belgian (8/19/05; 00:25:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 135100) @ Otish mountain Bear in mind that the SARB still is an AA ruled institution with a gold-mission/task (simplification).The (general) strike in itself and the ending were indeed a surprise.All the participants in the so called Bretton Woods-II management, need to contribute their particular share in the orderly deroulement. Avoiding any goldmetal shortage (bottleneck) has become a task of utmost importance in order to continue this BW-II management.Gold-pricing and the goldprice itself are a pillar on wich this BW-II management does rely.Daan Joubert (GE) has some real nice pictures of the long term USTBs. These giant triangles, with their peak in 1980, shows you the pattern of the BW-II during the past 3 decades. Add the long term charts of the POO/POG/Dow/Money Supplies...and conclude that all these patterns already have and are in the process of "change"...Big change.The BW-II management cannot run the risk to have any "disturbance" on the gold matters. NOW MORE THAN EVER BEFORE...and it (this worry) will not go away. On the contrary (read TC's 2 posts).The actions are NOT in the interest (well being) of the mineworkers/goldmines...but exclusively in the BW-II interests ! Remember IMF goldsale hullabaloo.In other words...more goldmetal has to be "mobilized" as to keep a high enough level of liquidity for continued gold(pricing/price) management. And South African's goldmetal output is steadily declining. A long and general minestrike (especially in SA with its goldservice-oriented SARB) would be extremely unwellcome to the (AA) BW-II management.In this context, also note the following : Putin wants the internationalization debate on Irak started...coupled with the condition of a withdrawel of the occupying force. Gazprom wants the control of Sibneft and Russia has now quasi Saudi status on oil/gas matters.Note that oil is not included in the WTO regime and the WTO regime imposes draconian free-market rules on trade...EXCEPT for oil AND currencies !Some-body has to take care of the gold-management too !!!Back to this giant triangle patterns (45 yrs) and their paek in 1980 (gold's ATH) : When such a clearcut pattern has been completed...a new pattern must start its formation. And guess what...the goldprice pattern already did !!! This is very alarming for the BW-II fellas.And as I mentioned recently...an increasing amount of astute BW-II observers and insiders are getting very worried (anxious) about the global (derivatized)situation...risking to become UN-manageble !And as a sidenote, bear in mind that CBs are very often indirectly involved in (organized) general strikes and the negociations ! A very complicated world indeed, Sir. But sticking to your goldmetal property is as simple as cake. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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