ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/19/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Blackjack
(8/19/02; 23:30:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 83343)
Brazilian interest rates 18%, like junk bonds
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20Stories%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=worldtop&s=APWHCVxYAQnJhemls
Brazil's currency and bonds are tumbling ahead of presidential elections in October, raising doubts about its ability to keep making payments on its $355 billion debt. That doesn't appear to be troubling Brazilians, who are showing their abiding faith in the country's banks by pouring money into savings accounts and term deposits.
Brazil's bank deposits rose 9.3 percent between the end of May and the end of June, according to the central bank, up from just 0.07 percent a year ago. The surge is fueled by far more than fidelity. Investors are being drawn by bank interest rates as high as 18 percent and a determination to stem mutual fund losses they've suffered since the central bank ordered fund managers to price investments daily, causing a plunge in prices.
The increase has also come even though Brazilian banks are flush with government debt, much like their counterparts were in Argentina. A crisis in confidence in the country's debt-ridden financial system caused a run on Argentina's banks and pushed the country into its $132 billion default in December.
_________________
The Brazilians are getting sucked in by junk bond level interest
rates. Too bad.
Waverider
(8/19/02; 23:18:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 83342)
Seven fallacies of US plans to invade Iraq
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DH20Ak01.html
CONTENTS
1. A war against Iraq would be illegal
2. Regional allies widely oppose a US attack
3. There is no evidence of Iraqi links to al-Qaeda or other anti-American terrorists
4. There is no proof that Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction
5. Iraq is no longer a significant military threat to its neighbors
6. There are still nonmilitary options available
7. Defeating Iraq would be militarily difficult
Conclusion
This policy report attempts to encourage popular debate by raising a number of concerns that challenge some of the key rationales and assumptions behind such a military action.
Waverider: An interesting read but we know it's all about oil.
Pizz
(8/19/02; 22:37:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 83341)
Cavan Man
I agree with Sector. Especially his response on dollar holders vs dollar debtors.
It'll be a default, as in any bankrupsy, and the debtors win.
The debt has to go away, one way or the other. The trick is to pull it off and survive, hence the new money - and it will have to be backed by something tangible, with a long history. . . .be kind of shiney, . . . . .
Pizz
Black Blade
(8/19/02; 22:29:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 83340)
Layoffs Looming at UBS Warburg Energy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020819/energy_ubs_layoffs_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street firm UBS Warburg is expected to lay off some of its 600 energy traders soon following a sharp downturn in power and gas deal making since last year's collapse of Enron Corp.
Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" are cast upon the growing "Bone Pile".
Golden Bear
(8/19/02; 22:18:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 83339)
Barton Biggs: Weekend Gold Worm
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/howe081302.html
Snippit:
"...In this context, Barton Biggs' July 16 clarion call to investors to consider the merits of gold could not have come at a worse time for the gold price fixing cabal. Gold prices were rising again toward $330 while JPM's stock price was falling into the mid-20's from the high 30's as recently as late May. Royal Bank of Canada, one of that country's leading financial institutions, was still wiping golden egg from its face after publicly disassociating itself from an improvidently published internal report by one its senior officials endorsing point-by-point the principal evidentiary allegations of the gold price fixing case. See "'Conspiracy Theory' Gains New Credibility at www.nationalinvestor.com/leaked_gold_report_reveals_troub.htm; see also http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1149; http://groups.yahoo.com/ group/gata/message/1153..."
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Excellent commentary by Sir Reg regarding Biggs, Gibson's Paradox and the recent events regarding the POG...
Sorry, if already posted, but I hadn't seen it.
Cheers.
Horatio
(8/19/02; 21:51:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83338)
Physical gold
Owning physical has its own dangers,I understand the reasons why physical vs paper is advocated ,but it carrys its own risks.Whats to stop the Gumment from declaring physical ownership is contrary to U.S. interests and supports Muslim advocates for the "gold dinar" and therefore a law should be passed declaring the holders of physical to be in support of "terriorists" and thier accounts should be confiscated in the name of "security" and national interests.When it comes to my gold,I don't trust Bush or any Democrat.Buy your physical ,but keep your mouth shut.Foreign banks might be just as bad,they could confiscate and say "who are you going to complain to ?.Do coin sellers keep records of the buyers that might be turned over to Gumment by court order?
IMHO we all need to be flexable as events evolve,increase your knowledge of owning physical and how to store it ,how to move it if necessary and how to convert it as needed.How to convert it may be the most important aspect in order to avoid confiscation and I would like to see some conversation on that subject.thanks in advance.......
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:39:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 83337)
Brazil's Bonds Decline After Serra Opinion Poll Support Weakens
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APWDJpBbVQnJhemls
Snip:
By James Craig
Sao Paulo, Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian bonds declined after the ruling coalition's presidential candidate lost support in nationwide opinion polls, eroding hope he can win the October election and allay concern of default.
Polls released over the weekend by Datafolha Institute and Vox Populi Institute showed Jose Serra, a former health minister, falling deeper into third place behind Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Ciro Gomes, who appear likely to face one another in an Oct. 27 run-off vote. Brazilian asset prices rallied Friday on speculation Serra would stage a comeback in the weekend's polls.
``The frustration of this expectation will be reflected in prices,'' said Daniel Vairo, who helps manage about 1.5 billion reais in debt and equities at Opportunity Asset Management Ltda. in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil's benchmark 8 percent bond maturing in 2014 lost 1.1 cent on the dollar to 53.15, raising the yield to 23.25 percent at 6:22 a.m. New York time from 22.67 percent on Friday.
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Misetich
Fire, fire, fire at Central Bankers doors and backdoors everywhere
Got gold?
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:37:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 83336)
Refinancing Surge Could Hit Some Bonds- Investing: A rush for lower interest rates may hurt mutual funds that hold mortgage issues.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage19aug19.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness
Snip:
It's uncertain how long rates will remain at such levels. Interest rates have been highly volatile since last fall, and many analysts were saying last week that yields had fallen so low that investors would be induced to pull money out of the bond market and invest it in stocks instead. That could fuel further rises in Treasury yields.
But if mortgage rates remain depressed long enough for home buyers to refinance--some for the second or third time in a year--mutual funds that hold mortgage bonds probably would see their returns slip.
.........
Another risk is that when interest rates eventually go back up, the value of the mortgage securities paying lower interest will decline--and they'll stay on the books because they won't be refinanced. The only time since 1981 that the total return on the Vanguard GNMA Fund posted a negative annual return was in 1994, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates six times, Berry said.
Such a reversal seems unlikely these days, given the worrisome weakness in the U.S. economy and the fragile nature of the equity markets, which would be further spooked by a Fed-inspired spike in interest rates. But many mortgage bond investors aren't fully aware of how badly they could be whipsawed if rates rise, said Jeffrey E. Gundlach, a senior fixed-income strategist at the TCW mutual fund group.
"I still think mortgage securities represent a good place to be," he said. "But sadly, the effect of lower rates is to make it a less attractive place than it was."
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Misetich
Gone are the good old days of fat returns - yet the risks are increasing
The US is in uncharted territory -
Got gold?
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:31:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83335)
Fire, flood and the equity markets- Insurance companies are more important to Britain than they are to any other country's economy, which is why their troubles have such wide repercussions
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1284312
Snip:
IT IS unusual for the insurance industry to feel the hot glare of television cameras; but then these are unusual times in the insurance industry. On August 8th Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA), one of Britain's biggest insurers, was all over the news when it announced poor half-year profits, the closure of its life funds to new business and more than 1,000 job cuts; and on the same day Moody's, a rating agency, confirmed its "negative" outlook—the worst it ever gives—on British life insurers. And Ace, a Bermudan insurer and one of the most prominent underwriters at Lloyd's, the insurance market, announced plans to cut its business at Lloyd's by a third.
Shareholders and policy-holders are feeling the immediate consequences. Those who own shares in this reputedly "safe" sector have seen the value of their holdings fall by 54%, on average, since the beginning of the year. Non-life insurers have seen their average share price fall by almost two-thirds since January.
Rates for some property-and-casualty insurance are rocketing. Employers' liability insurance, for instance, which covers employers over claims for workplace injuries, has increased as much as six-fold for many businesses.
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Misetich
The insurance industry is being hit from all sides - and the repurcassions are being underestimated
Got gold?
sector
(8/19/02; 21:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83334)
C and CSFB are at Risk for $USD 24 Billion...Ominous
Debt losses at this level are unsupportable by these banks when other losses...
...and potential ENRON litigation losses are added.
IMF Congressional leaders calling for investigations.
Staggering flood insurance losses in Europe further burdening that industry.
An ME war all but started.
...Pretty soon gold will be at $250. <smile>
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:25:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 83333)
US investment banks take more risks- Many of the largest US investment banks are taking bigger trading risks to boost their profits, according to the latest round of quarterly filings to US regulators.
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1028185843808&p=1012571727183
Snip:
Value at risk (VAR), which estimates the maximum amount a bank would stand to lose in a particular period under certain assumptions, increased last quarter at Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, the companies told the Securities and Exchange Commission in their 10-Q filings.
Analysts said such trading strategies were predictable, given the relatively low levels of short-term interest rates, which often trigger more fixed-income activity.
"In a fixed-income environment, you're going to see trading houses grow their balance sheets and take a little bit more market risk," said Brad Hintz of Sanford Bernstein. "The general position [among investors] is long corporate bonds and short treasuries. They were positioned for the spreads."
The upturn in risk exposure marks a reversal from recent quarters, when many banks made an effort to avoid risk and lower their VAR ratios.
Last quarter, Goldman Sachs' VAR rose to $51m from $49m in the first quarter while Morgan Stanley's climbed from $41m to $66m. Merrill's rose to $62m from $56m at the end of last year and Citigroup's increased by $10m to $64m in the same period.
A few banks bucked the trend. JP Morgan Chase's VAR plunged to $110.9m from $148.1m in the first quarter. The VAR ratios of two leading players in the mortgage-backed and municipal bond markets - Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns - also fell.
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Misetich
Trying to thread water - investment bankers earnings are slipping - loan provision losses increasing - potential liability soaring - and the financial markets are volatile
Many were counting on a "quick US economic recovery" - unfortunately for them it hasn't materialized - and darker clouds are on the horizon
It wouldn't take much for one of them to be down for the count- and they're fighting Murphy's Law
Got gold?
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:24:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 83332)
US investment banks take more risks- Many of the largest US investment banks are taking bigger trading risks to boost their profits, according to the latest round of quarterly filings to US regulators.
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1028185843808&p=1012571727183
Snip:
Value at risk (VAR), which estimates the maximum amount a bank would stand to lose in a particular period under certain assumptions, increased last quarter at Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, the companies told the Securities and Exchange Commission in their 10-Q filings.
Analysts said such trading strategies were predictable, given the relatively low levels of short-term interest rates, which often trigger more fixed-income activity.
"In a fixed-income environment, you're going to see trading houses grow their balance sheets and take a little bit more market risk," said Brad Hintz of Sanford Bernstein. "The general position [among investors] is long corporate bonds and short treasuries. They were positioned for the spreads."
The upturn in risk exposure marks a reversal from recent quarters, when many banks made an effort to avoid risk and lower their VAR ratios.
Last quarter, Goldman Sachs' VAR rose to $51m from $49m in the first quarter while Morgan Stanley's climbed from $41m to $66m. Merrill's rose to $62m from $56m at the end of last year and Citigroup's increased by $10m to $64m in the same period.
A few banks bucked the trend. JP Morgan Chase's VAR plunged to $110.9m from $148.1m in the first quarter. The VAR ratios of two leading players in the mortgage-backed and municipal bond markets - Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns - also fell.
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Misetich
Trying to thread water - investment bankers earnings are slipping - loan provision losses increasing - potential liability soaring - and the financial markets are volatile
Many were counting on a "quick US economic recovery" - unfortunately for them it hasn't materialized - and darker clouds are on the horizon
It wouldn't take much for one of them to be down for the count- and they're fighting Murphy's Law
Got gold?
steady
(8/19/02; 21:23:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 83331)
question?re 83328 sector
sector suppose for a second you are correct
The "Old" dollar is the dollar that will be devalued by 90% partly in order to repudiate debt and save weakened banks here. The "New" dollar with colors prettier than green and black will be worth 90% more.
and A devaluation in the $USD reduces gold buyer's ability to buy gold by 90%...thus the cartel's bullion would be that much safer, the debts of the major at-risk Fed banks would be similarly reduced.
if the old money is devalued by 90% what happens to the price of gold since it isnt backed by anything at all, does it stay constant. lets assume i go to bed and gold is trading for 300 in old us dollars, in the middle of the night they make the announcement u are refering to, does the price of gold stay at 300 in new 90% devalued dollars?
im almost get it but not quite sure am i on the right track?
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 83330)
Insurers hung out to dry over flooding -The German industry is already in the throes of a crisis. It is feared that a number of life companies will be unable to meet the minimum interest rates promised to policyholders, so they have decided to band together to create a "pool" to cover any gaps.
http://www.business.scotsman.com/banking.cfm?id=912782002
Snip:
Eric Culp and Christopher Condon
THE German, Australian and Czech governments face huge bills from the worst floods in central Europe in more than a century; but the disaster will also put further pressure on the profits of continental insurers already battered by terrorist attacks and falling equity markets.
As the flood waters started to threaten lives, property and crops in Germany after tearing through Czech and Austrian cities last week, insurers were making tentative estimates of their exposure even before the waterlogged areas resurfaced.
The total amount of damage is staggering: initial estimates put the combined cost at 8.5 billion (£5.4 billion) at least and could rise as water levels fall.
.............
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Misetich
From continent to continent - insurance companies are under severe stress -
Got gold?
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:08:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 83329)
IMF Bailout for Brazil is Windfall to Banks, Disaster for US Taxpayers Says Sanders-Congressman Calls on Congress for Investigation
http://www.corpwatch.org/bulletins/PBD.jsp?articleid=3548
Snip:
Source: U.S. Congressman Bernie Sanders
Posted: August 15, 2002
For Immediate Release
Contact: Congressman Bernie Sanders
Joel Barkin 202-225-4115
BURLINGTON, VERMONT - August 15 - Congressman Bernard Sanders (I-VT), the Ranking Member of the International Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee, today called for an immediate Congressional investigation of the recent $30 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout of Brazil.
Sanders, who is strongly opposed to the bailout and considers it corporate welfare, wants Congress to find out why U.S. taxpayers are being asked to provide billions of dollars to Brazil and how much of this money will be funneled to U.S. banks such as Citigroup, FleetBoston and J.P. Morgan Chase. These banks have about $25.6 billion in outstanding loans to Brazilian borrowers. U.S. taxpayers currently fund the IMF through a $37 billion line of credit.
Sanders said, "At a time when we have a $6 trillion national debt, a growing federal deficit, and an increasing number of unmet social needs for our veterans, seniors, and children, it is unacceptable that billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars are being sent to the IMF to bailout Brazil."
"This money is not going to significantly help the poor people of that country. The real winners in this situation are the large, profitable U.S. banks such as Citigroup that have made billions of dollars in risky investments in Brazil and now want to make sure their investments are repaid. This bailout represents an egregious form of corporate welfare that must be put to an end. Interestingly, these banks have made substantial campaign contributions to both political parties," the Congressman added.
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Misetich
Telling like it is -
Got gold?
sector
(8/19/02; 21:07:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 83328)
@CavenMan Speaking of Monetary Universes...
...and other manipulations
The "Old" dollar is the dollar that will be devalued by 90% partly in order to repudiate debt and save weakened banks here. The "New" dollar with colors prettier than green and black will be worth 90% more.
USD$ Cash holders will be wrecked. Savings certificate holders will similarly be robbed but they WILL get 8% on their deposits as a consolation. All this is easy to predict...it is the only way to escape debt other than more of the pure monetary inflation currently featured by the Fed.
Because Japan and the US have closely knit economies there can't be the required equal inflation since the money flows aren't really predictable in both cultures. In other words, there needs to be a stable unit of effective inflation...there is none so a simultaneous $USD/yen devaluation fits the bill.
The colorful currencies planned by the Japanese and US authorities have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with preventing counter-fitting. They are the new currencies.
Do not be lulled into complacency and think that folks on this or any board will give you a heads up. it will happen in the dead of night. The spin scripts pre-written for the following day.
"A new bill has been introduced to thwart Al Quaeda counter-fitters today. It will be backed by 15% gold. All holders of old USD must turn them in at an FDIC listed bank ...etc., etc."
The Saudis and Japanese elders alone have over $USD 1.3 Trillion in assets some of which will certainly be converted to gold as the geopolitical turbulence roils on towards a war in the ME. 10% of that total converts to 13,478 tonnes of gold at $300 per ounce.
This figure is far above the US Reserves and begins to reach the level of BIS cartel capitulation.
Continuing on the current track of a slow bleed of physical from the BIS would be acceptable if it were not for the huge and fatal [To the cartel's bullion] uncertainties inherent in today's macroeconomic headlines...so there must be a devaluation plan BEFORE things get out of hand and the monied Saudis and Japanese get their gold buying train rolling.
A devaluation in the $USD reduces gold buyer's ability to buy gold by 90%...thus the cartel's bullion would be that much safer, the debts of the major at-risk Fed banks would be similarly reduced.
misetich
(8/19/02; 21:05:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 83327)
Brazil may meet New York banks next week-official - Brazilian central bank and finance ministry officials could not confirm the talks but the Fed said it had been asked to host the meeting.
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news&news_id=reu-n19129421&feed=reu&date=20020819&cat=USMARKET
Snip:
Monday August 19, 3:04 PM EDT
By Anna Willard and Susan Schneider
WASHINGTON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Brazilian finance officials may travel to New York next week to meet with Wall Street bankers to discuss the credit lines banks have with private companies, a Brazilian official said on Monday.
Brazilian firms have found it harder to get credit lines from private banks as the country's financial markets have plunged into turmoil because of investor nervousness over the consequences of the presidential election in October.
The official said no date has yet been set for the meetings but that there have been phone conversations between Marcos DePaiva, secretary for international affairs at Brazil's finance ministry, and several banks in the United States.
The New York Federal Reserve has been involved in the discussions but only in a marginal way, acting as a "facilitator" for the conversations, the official stressed. The Fed confirmed it will host the meetings.
"There are conversations between the parties, there may be a meeting next week but we have not yet got confirmation of the participants or the times of such a meeting," the Brazilian official, who did not want to be identified, told Reuters. "There have just been conversations of a possible meeting."
...........
Brazilian central bank and finance ministry officials could not confirm the talks but the Fed said it had been asked to host the meeting.
"The Brazilians have asked us if they could hold the meeting here and we will be pleased to host them," said Peter Bakstansky, senior vice president and spokesman at the New York Federal Reserve.
The Brazilian official said the subject of the meetings would be "credit for Brazilian private companies."
A string of international banks have heavy exposure in Latin America's largest economy.
Citigroup Inc. (C), the largest U.S. financial services company and a key player in emerging markets, and FleetBoston Financial Corp. (FBF) together have about $24 billion at stake in Brazil, making market woes there of keen interest.
"The parties are looking for a joint statement into the markets to install confidence, because confidence is what it (Brazil) lacks at this moment," said another source familiar with the telephone discussions.
Brazil's bonds and the real currency have both shed some 30 percent of their value so far this year as investors fret over the wide advantage held by two leftish candidates, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Ciro Gomes, in the polls.
Wall Street worries a left-leaning president might bungle economic policy and push Brazil toward a default on its $250 billion net public debt.
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Misetich
US economy growth is flat to negative
Oil prices are soaring
Trade deficit increasing
Budget deficit soaring
Accounting scandals - legal lawsuits - senate investigations
Europe economy is decelerating
Japan is in recession
Japanese banks are deep doodoo
and US Fed is being asked to put out ANOTHER fire in Latin America - Brazil
Central bankers are fighting a losing cause as they have lost all creditability - they're fighting the markets instead of the markets fighting the Feds
Got gold?
Black Blade
(8/19/02; 21:01:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 83326)
Saudis want to withdraw investments from US
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/020819/2002081910.html
Snippit:
Saudi businessmen have called for withdrawing the Saudi investments from the US in case the US will continue and allows judicial lawsuits proposed by some US lawyers against Saudi banks and charity societies, stressing that this case is deliberate and stands against all Saudi interests. News reports said on August 16 that the case which will be filed by families and relatives of victims of September 11 attacks in the US targets 99 Saudi establishments, organizations, and individuals.
The director of "Bekheit " center for the Saudi financial consultation said in statements issued on Sunday by the Saudi daily al-Watan that the acceptance of the American courts of the filed lawsuits asking for compensations estimated at 300 billion dollars to the families of the American victims of the attacks of September 11, will push all Saudi investors in particular and the Arab investors in general to get their sums out of the American banks, so as to avoid risks of these trial cases. The Saudi Arab monetary fund establishment "Mu'assat al-Naqd al-Arabi al-Saudi" is to reconsider investments of the retirement and social insurance establishments in the USA, and to invest them in local or European markets which are more secure.
Black Blade: If the Saudis do want to bail out of US markets, they had better work fast as the US courts could freeze assets. First the Saudis bail, and then the other ME investors will follow.
misetich
(8/19/02; 20:56:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83325)
Tokyo govt to deposit cash in foreign banks -Unprecedented move mirrors public fears that Japan's banks may not be best 'safe haven' for deposits
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,1870,138512,00.html?
Snip:
TOKYO - In a virtual vote of declining confidence in Japan's banking system, the Tokyo metropolitan government plans to put part of its cashpile of one trillion yen (S$15 billion) in foreign banks in Japan.
The unprecedented decision by the city government, headed by outspoken nationalist governor Shintaro Ishihara, comes at a time when faith in Japan's bad debt-burdened banks is crumbling.
Until now, no other major Japanese government has opened up its deposit business to non-Japanese financial institutions.
'We reviewed our portfolio allocation and decided to expand our bank partners to those with good credit ratings, including some second-tier regional banks and foreign banks,' Mr Takemi Noguchi, an official at the city government's comptroller office, said yesterday. He said the city is in talks with Citibank, the world's largest financial services firm and the biggest foreign bank operating in Japan, as well as other foreign banks.
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Misetich
Gold investment purchases will increase multi-fold as the US $ crumbles down and "foreign banks" will not be deemed a safe haven
Got gold?
misetich
(8/19/02; 20:52:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 83324)
Asian central banks 'take a shine to gold'
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,1870,138515,00.html?
Snip:
By Simon Wilcox
GOLD is regaining its lustre in the eyes of Asian central banks and the regulatory authorities, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
'Central bankers in Asia have become far more receptive to talking about gold than they were a couple of years ago,' Mr Ralston Thiedeman, head of the Asia-Pacific and Indian subcontinent sector of the WGC, said yesterday. 'Gold is back on their radar screens.'
He said interest in gold reserves has risen among central banks because of the current uncertain environment created by the slowdown in the United States economy and the weakening US dollar; volatile equity markets; and geo-political instability.
.............
The seminar, opened by IPS director Tommy Koh yesterday, is being attended by delegates from 29 central banks, government agencies or regulatory authorities from 13 Asian countries.
Asian central banks have traditionally held only 1 to 5 per cent of their foreign exchange reserves in gold, while European central banks hold about 30 to 40 per cent and the US holds more than 55 per cent.
'With so little yield now from US Treasury bills, I am asking whether it is time for Asian central bankers to increase their gold ratios,' Mr Thiedeman said.
He made these comments on the same day that Malaysia said it planned to lead a push among Islamic nations to use the gold dinar - defined in terms of an equivalent value in gold - to pay for external trade, so as to reduce reliance on the US dollar.
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Misetich
With economic recovery post-poned, yet for ANOTHER year - risks are increasing worldwide for US $ holders
Got gold?
misetich
(8/19/02; 20:48:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83323)
Saudi banks, charities reject terrorism charge - "This is an act to extort Saudi money deposited in the United States and a way of meddling in the region."
http://paknews.com/main.php?id=10&date1=2002-08-20
Snip:
RIYADH, August 20 (PNS): More Islamic charities and Saudi banks named in a lawsuit by families of September 11 victims denied Monday any role in funding terrorism and blasted the case as an attempt to extort Saudi wealth abroad, Arab News reported.
In a civil suit filed in a Washington court on Thursday, relatives of some 400 people killed in the attacks sought damages of over $100 trillion.
An official at Al Rajhi Investment and Development Corp., one of several Saudi banks named in the lawsuit, said: "This is an act to extort Saudi money deposited in the United States and a way of meddling in the region."
Officials at the banks involved said they were pondering a response but would not act or issue statements before consulting with government authorities in the Kingdom.
............
He said Muslim charities named in the lawsuit planned to hold a meeting soon in Cairo to discuss a plan of action.
Meanwhile, there have been calls for the withdrawal of Saudi investments worth $750 billion in the United States in the wake of the lawsuit filed against the Saudi banks and organizations.
"The lawsuit will force Arab and Saudi investors to withdraw their investments in the US fearing the risks involved," Bashar Bakheet, director of Bakheet Financial Consultancy firm, told Al-Watan newspaper. He put the total Arab investments in the US at more than $1.3 trillion.
Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Zamil, chairman of Al-Zamil Group, urged Saudi investors to repatriate their funds to the Kingdom. He pointed out that European investors had withdrawn $70 billion in investments from US after the September 11 attacks
Saudis for boycotting US products
Calls for boycotting US products in the Kingdom and elsewhere in the Middle East are growing as many Muslims believe that it is an effective weapon to change America's pro-Israeli policies.
"We should not ignore the calls for boycott of US products. It has proved effective," Ihsan Bouhaleega, a Shoura member and an economic analyst, told Arab News.
He believed that the boycott movement in the long run would force the US government to change its policies, despite the strength of its economy.
"It may not be affected in the short run even if all Arab and Islamic countries decide to boycott American products, because it's a strong economy," he pointed out.
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Misetich
Retaliation - and further retaliation - How will this end?
The US $ is vulnerable and enemies know it - and allies are getting nervous - Will there panic selling and US $ crash?
Lets stay on this tumoltous TRAIL
Got gold?
Cavan Man
(8/19/02; 20:40:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 83322)
sector
You are implying eurodollar default yes? Sorry to state the obvious.
Cavan Man
(8/19/02; 20:37:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 83321)
Sir PIZZ
Could you comment on my post to sector as I value your insight.
Cavan Man
(8/19/02; 20:36:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83320)
sector: I don't get it.....
There is not room enough in our monetary universe for old and new USD. No way. So, I am missing your point though it sounds similar to an old friend who was posting here for a long time. What is the point of $3500 old USD when the NEW USD is the game that everyone is playing; the only game in town? What am I going to do with $3500 old USD eh?
When/if the scenario you and a certain "essayist" envision occurs, I think the global economic applecart will be turned over and POG will soar in old and new or used and freshly printed (not minted) legal tender of all sorts. At some point certain you sell a good hunk as the equilibrium or, SNAFU will reassert itself. That's the time honored and surest reason to own gold and the Europeans know this; it will get thee to the other side.
misetich
(8/19/02; 20:32:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 83319)
Banks Tighten Up on Loan Approvals-Banks Report Tightening Up on Lending in Wake of Accounting Scandals-However, three large U.S. banks reported loans to companies facing accounting problems represented more than 5 percent of their total business loans. The Fed survey did not name the institutions.
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20020819_1382.html
Snip:
WASHINGTON Copyright 2002 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. Aug. 19 —
In the wake of the accounting scandals that have rocked corporate America, the nation's banks have tightened up on their loan approval procedures, the Federal Reserve reported Monday.
In a survey of 56 large U.S. banks and 20 foreign banks with U.S. operations, the Fed found that the majority of the institutions had moved to tighten standards for making loans and had also increased the frequency for monitoring existing loans.
The Fed's quarterly loan officer survey found that banks' exposure to companies with accounting problems was generally low with 58 percent of those surveyed saying such loans represented less than 1 percent of their business loans.
However, three large U.S. banks reported loans to companies facing accounting problems represented more than 5 percent of their total business loans. The Fed survey did not name the institutions.
............
The Fed survey found that 5.4 percent of the banks reported a "notable increase" over the past year in the number of firms submitting erroneous or misleading financial statements in the loan approval process, while 12.5 percent of banks reported "some increase" in misleading statements. The large majority of banks surveyed, 80.4 percent, reported no change in the frequency of erroneous or misleading statements.
In response to the accounting problems, banks reported they were taking a variety of actions.
"Most banks reported that they had begun requesting additional financial detail during the approval process, had increased the frequency or intensity of monitoring and were enforcing loan covenants more strictly," the Fed said.
*************
Misetich
Exactly what the doctor ordered - NOT -
Banks, bondholders are Risk averse - though it has not resulted in a credit squeeze thus far - there is no question that business is not as usual and the long awaited economic recovery is being post-poned indefinetely - until the excesses are purged from the system
Will a global economic decelaration occurring - wouldn't surprise if the Europeans jump on the cut interest rates bandwagon "as inflation is muted" -
Will they be able to cope with debt deflation?
Got gold?
Waverider
(8/19/02; 20:27:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 83318)
Saudi investors 'could withdraw US funds'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2202781.stm
Snippit:
"Saudi investors have threatened to withdraw some of the $750bn (£487bn; 766bn euros) they have invested in the US after families of 11 September victims filed a lawsuit against Saudi banks and charities for damages.
"This is an act to extort Saudi money deposited in the US and a way of meddling in the region," an official at Al-Rajhi Investment and Development Corp, one of the Saudi banks named in the lawsuit, told the Reuters news agency. "Naming Prince Sultan is the equivalent of saying J. Edgar Hoover was a communist spy," said economist Bishr Bakheet of the Bakheet Financial Consultancy.
"Assuming the court proceeds with this lawsuit, the Saudi investment community, already in shock, will start withdrawing their money. People are really going to walk out," he said. The lawsuit originally sought $100 trillion in damages but the lawyer for the victims late on Friday amend the suit to $1 trillion.
Waverider: I can't imagine this lawsuit being allowed to proceed given the damage it will wreak on ME-US relations and the US economy. I would think that it would be nipped in the bud rather shortly! Unfortunately damage has already been done and once the defendents get over their shock I suspect they'll react whether or not the suit is dropped.
Pizz
(8/19/02; 19:49:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 83317)
Paper Avalanche, Sector
I'm in agreement on the New Dollar, just that my numbers feel a bit different.
New Dollar gold price $50.00 oz.
Backing = 10%
Old Greenback 5000/0z non convertable.
Sector: Nothing wrong with your numbers, and you could be right. I think we'll have free gold. I just feel that the EU just might have to inflate a bit and have to account for a little bit (smile) of leased gold that just ain't comin' home. 5% feels about right. 15-5=10. I also think gold will hit 500 or so within 6 months, which is close to the equilibrium price some have calculated.
Plus the US is going to have to default/devalue about 90%, and the numbers again feel right as the Eu gold in reserve of 10% appreciates 10 fold to compensate.
Moving a decimal point one place would be preferable, plus why would you want a whole bunch of Gold Eagles out there with the wrong conversion rate on them? It's the quarter ounce ones that will be numismatic.
Oh to be a FED or EU accountant during the conversion. You can't imagine the multitude of sins that could be washed away, including a bit of leased gold and any other "debit" that needed to be absorbed. That's the main reason for my 500, 5000, and 50 figures - the PTB's of the world need the slack, similar to a "restructuring" charge that will have everything including our kitchen sinks thrown in.
Idle specualtion on our parts, but both possible and probable. . . .
__________________________________
Twenty years ago if someone with the investment clout of Saudi Arabia started sabre rattling about reverse repatriating of our debt, markets would have crashed. Are we getting that "conditioned"?????
Pizz
Black Blade
(8/19/02; 19:20:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 83316)
Drought Worsens
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWErAhWyVS5TLiBE
Snippit:
Corn prices have surged 37 percent since May 1 as drought and heat waves in 25 states slashed production of the nation's most- valuable crops. After four years of excess grain production and depressed prices, profits are poised to rise for farmers who got rain. For many others, the slump worsens. Weather patterns kept most of the rain in the northern part of the Midwest Corn Belt this summer, ensuring bumper crops in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. In Nebraska, the third-largest corn grower, conditions were the driest on record and the hottest since 1936, the worst year of the Dust Bowl decade. Drought conditions had been spreading in Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana and Ohio, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska. The four states accounted for 43 percent of last year's $19.2 billion corn crop and 40 percent of the $12.4 billion soybean harvest.
Black Blade: Some locales are doing very well and will harvest big gains with higher prices, however, the overall picture is "grim". Meanwhile enjoy the temporary low meat prices as ranchers cull herds due to high feed costs. Food costs are likely to increase for at the very least several months going forward. If the drought works into next year as supply decreases, the problem will get much worse.
USAGOLD
(8/19/02; 19:12:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 83315)
CB2. . .
Good to see you back in the game, CB. . . .
It wasn't that long ago that GB2 (as differentiated from CB2) made the off-hand comment during one of the presidential debates that the IMF needs to be look at. Since then, we've gone from "Why send money to Brazil only to see it show up in someone's Swiss bank account" to "How much do you need? We'll get it there in the morning." So much for a new role for the vaunted IMF. Meanwhile, the man we were told was "different" looks more and more like Wall Street's child, and despite advice from the hinterlands (yours and mine), he's managed to let Hillary back in the race, and Robert Rubin busily raises money in her behalf. And you and I (both with our connections to the Bushes) can only throw up our arms wondering how the Bush family could be so close, yet so far away. ( Many of you know what I'm talking about. ) If only he could get himself to say that it is the function of goverment to insure "free and fair" markets. But it seems he cannot. So we have Hillary and derivatives. . . .and if only I could make this all rhyme, I would be CB2. . . . ..
My best, good friend. . . .The Autumn will be better for you, me, gold, but probably not GB2. . ..CB2.
It's parched here and your part of the world very wet. . . Let's split the difference. What's the word on ski season there? We're being told to forget it. . . .. C'mon El Nino. . . . .
Black Blade
(8/19/02; 19:05:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 83314)
Leading indicators fall
http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/19/news/economy/lei/index.htm
A group of forward-looking measures of economic health posts biggest drop in July since Sept. 2001.
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A basket of leading U.S. economic indicators was lower in July, a research group said Monday, as the economy continued to struggle to recover from a recession that began in early 2001. It was the biggest drop for the index, which measures how the economy will look in three-to-six months, since a decline of 0.6 percent in September 2001, a month that included the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Six of the 10 leading indicators fell, including stock prices, average weekly manufacturing hours, consumer expectations, interest rate spread, vendor performance, and building permits. Some economists have begun to worry that the recent weakness in the stock market has sapped consumer confidence and caused businesses to be more cautious with their spending. If this persists, they fear the economy could fall back into a recession that some economists believe began in March 2001 -- the dreaded "double-dip" recession.
Black Blade: Some economists are blowing off this recent data though. Of course they absolutely missed the recession and even declared that there was no recession – at least until the revised GDP data came out and made them look like a bunch of monkeys. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that the global economy is falling flat.
Just last week (and it was a slow one) data revealed lower consumer/investor confidence, lower housing starts, and unemployment is still rising. I don't see any economic recovery.
sector
(8/19/02; 18:56:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 83313)
Replace the word "State" with "Safe"
eom
sector
(8/19/02; 18:54:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83312)
@Paper Av - The New American Dollar
It Will Be as you declare...
...convertible to gold at "n" percentage, likely 15%...as the euro.
The price? $NUSD35 per ounce [New US Dollars]. No gold for the "Old" $USD which have been devalued by 90% as the yen.
What will be the outside the US gold price? 3,500 old $USD.
As I have posted here before, the conversion will be a very complicated and propagandized affaire designed to obfuscate and confuse. Smuggling gold in or out of the US will be added to the money laundering statutes.
Two remedies present themselves (1) Make close friends with people near a gold market outside the US and (2) Move some gold to a state place there.
Recall that the cabal are ruthless people and have wreaked havoc on the innocents of the Third World in order to perpetrate their monetary hegemony. Mr. Greenspan has twisted the language: "I don't know what money is". They will institute a might-makes-right policy with impunity.
You must think bigger and badder than you have ever thought possible. Only then will you be prepared.
Black Blade
(8/19/02; 18:46:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 83311)
Credit-Card Scrutiny Hits Lenders And Threatens to Damp Spending
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=808&ncid=808&e=19&u=/dowjones/20020819/bs_dowjones/200208190006000003
Snippit:
A federal crackdown on credit-card lending is squeezing some lenders even before proposed guidelines take effect, and threatens to pinch consumer spending, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. The new scrutiny is aimed at reducing a rapid rise in consumer debt and defaults. It tests the so-called subprime credit-card business that caters to customers with poor credit or low income, which grew quickly during the booming 1990s and is seeing its first economic downturn. Already, the government's attention has pushed some credit-card companies specializing in the subprime market -- estimated by one credit bureau at as much as 37% of credit-card loans -- to move toward increasing their reserve funds and change accounting and lending practices.
Black Blade: Cutting down more consumer spending eh? Also, retailers are reporting slower sales so it appears that the consumer is reigning in spending along with capital expenditures of corporations. That makes the recent "suckers rally" in the stock market that much more curious. Now those living on plastic should be getting a bit more nervous, especially since the new laws limit their ability to declare bankruptcy on credit card debt. As always, get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. And hope or the best.
Black Blade
(8/19/02; 18:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 83310)
Market Wrap Up – Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:
In a Recession
The leading economic indicators tell a story that many people already know: the U.S. economy is heading back towards recession. In fact, we may already be there. The latest government figures show that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate during the second quarter. That translates to a quarterly growth rate of a little over 0.25%. Given the propensity for revisions that always come later, and for the most part are less favorable, we probably are already in another recession. As we found out last month when the government revised GDP numbers for 1999-2001, the last recession was much longer and much worse than originally thought. The recession ended after the third quarter of last year. The final quarter of 2001 and the first quarter of this year showed robust economic growth as a result of two sectors: government and consumer spending. Increased defense expenditures, strong automobile spending, and a robust housing market were what led the economy out of recession. The combination of lower interest rates allowed consumers to refinance mortgages, extracting equity in the process, which helped to fuel additional consumption. Now that may be coming to an end.
Unless mortgage rates go significantly lower and housing prices continue to climb, allowing further equity extraction, the consumer may be tapped out. What policy makers don't know at this time is if the recent data on the economy represents a one-of-a-kind event or the beginning of a new trend. Job layoffs are still rising while hours worked in the economy are at new lows. Deflation in the economy may now be the Fed's greatest fear. Everywhere you look there are signs of deflation. In the manufacturing sector companies can't raise prices as global competition, especially from China, is a growing source of competitive pressure. In the financial markets the drop in equity values ($5 trillion) and the $525 billion in bond defaults over the last 18 months is a deflationary event in itself.
Possible Rogue Waves
The energy market is certainly one of these rogue waves. The oil and gas markets keep rising with the price of crude now approaching $30 a barrel. Natural gas prices are also over $3.25. With lower prices for natural gas over the last twelve months, gas well completions are expected to decline by 40% this year. The deceleration in drilling activity will get worse in the third and fourth quarter of this year. Even last year the peak in gas drilling output increased by less then 2%. The U.S. Energy Agency and the IEA estimate that demand for oil and gas are still growing, especially in Asia. With the energy markets so unstable producers have been unwilling to take on the risk of expanding the supply with the outlook for prices so uncertain. Even with higher prices there are many experts in energy that believe natural gas production in the U.S. has already peaked and is now heading into irreversible decline, similar to oil output in the U.S. which peaked in 1970. Fortunately for the U.S., a recession and a mild winter have helped the U.S. out of an energy crisis. Weather, more than economic factors, has been key in pulling us out of an energy crisis. But as the floods in Europe, the drought in the U.S. point to another irregular weather cycle. If the weather is mild this winter as it was last year, we may be able to get by one more season. However, add the uncertainty of war and the vagaries of weather and it is clear the U.S. is only one step away from its next energy crisis.
Black Blade: Oil prices are bouncing along just shy of $30/bbl and now with recent events and unfriendly statements in the US that are antagonizing our ME oil suppliers, it is very likely that OPEC will not increase production anytime soon. The higher costs of energy will impact the corporate bottom line. I just talked with some people in the petroleum side of the business and they say that drilling activity is falling off again and that new production of natural gas and domestic oil are going to fall off rapidly. I have discussed this before in the past and the possibility of a real shortage is looming perhaps late this winter to early spring. Meanwhile new economic data suggests that all is not well with the economy, and yet the stock market indices roared back to life. People should be very careful in these markets. It appears to be yet another setup as unsuspecting novices are drawn in only to be clipped. If you wish to be in the stock markets now, be very picky and keep an eye toward safety.
mikal
(8/19/02; 18:17:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 83309)
US Dollar Index treading water
Oil closed at a not so crude price, just shy of $30! Will this week's inventory numbers come in high enough to bring this down? If so, dollars will be sold, rather than bought to buy oil. Dollars were certainly bought to lift banking and other shares, adding to those shifted out of gold positions and shares. And dollars were bought to buy US bonds again, further advancing the US$ Index. In the summer trading season, thin markets are also affected noticeably by pronouncements of peace-i.e. the Israeli withdrawal and voices of protest against Iraq attacks. Of course Saudis and Middle Easterners are not SUDDENLY going to sell US assets, they've been doing it for months, except that now, like the Japanese and others, they have much greater incentives, domestic and foreign. Where will the Dollar Index and oil osscillate, amidst the coming maelstrom of news and rumors, including anniversaries like Sept. 11th and Jewish holidays?
silvercollector
(8/19/02; 18:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 83308)
Ed Bugos replies to Mark Lewis ('Fool's Gold)
http://www.safehaven.com/GoldenBar/GBR081802.htm
Excellent review of gold's history, a must read for the novice.
Three questions arise from reading this article:
" At least two major devaluations in the dollar occurred in the 20th century; one occurred from 1933-1949, as you can see in the chart; and the other occurred from 1971 to 1980. In both cases, the dollar turned out to be worth less at the end of the period in terms of both gold & commodities than it was at the beginning.
As you can see in one of my favorite charts (above) of the historical progression of the dollar's value in the 20th century (assuming the rising raw materials prices over the long term imply falling dollar values), there are long periods of time when paper assets became worth more than commodities and real assets, or in other words, where raw materials prices fell in dollar terms."
Mr. Bugos graph depicts two periods in time where 'raw materials' went through great inflation, 1933-1949 and 1971-1980. Does someone know if gold followed a similiar pattern; obviously gold had it's major pop in 1979/80 but I guess the more accurate question is did gold track the 'raw materials' index during this time?
"From 1982 to 1997 gold prices stabilized between $300 - $500. From 1980 to 1985 it was a recovery in the dollar that explained gold's $500 point decline. The dollar index nearly doubled during that time. But when the dollar again lost a third of its value from 1986-1987 gold prices almost doubled, from just under $300 to just over $500. While it didn't decline much further after 1987, the dollar continued to hover near its trough until 1993/1994, when gold began its trek from about $330 to over $400 as fear grew for the dollar's inevitable demise."
While the 'strong dollar' policy has been in place since '95 gold has slid to 20 year lows. In the last 6 months the dollar has had a small decline and in keeping with the above the POG has had a sizeable gain. If it safe to say that gold inversely tracks the dollar's performance to a 'T'?
"If the message isn't clear, try this: gold should not go up in terms of the dollar simply because there are problems in Argentina, Corporate America, or the Middle East unless those problems undermine the value of the dollar. "
Excellent point; if the above holds water then the price of gold is simply (nothing is simple!) an (inverse) proxy to the value of a dollar. An article in the Globe and Mail today described the possible, if not probable fleeing of Brazilian capital to US treasuries. So the last question is if everyone around the US is 'blowing up' how does the US dollar fall? Further to this, how, when and why does the USD fall when it is the 'last man' standing?
Thanks.
CoBra(too)
(8/19/02; 17:41:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 83307)
Bugles, for Beagles, Labradors and never King C's Cavaliers -
But forever Aris's ..."I'm a Golden Retriever!!!"
Brilliant -
Cheers cb2
- and forget derivatives - we're thoroughbred ...
CoBra(too)
(8/19/02; 17:18:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83306)
What's the Use of a Noose - Without a Neck?
Or what da Heck is the IMF trying to prove - except bailing out the doomed system and their main usur(pato)ers.
... It has been years now that our country - also known as the Latin American Switzerland - Uruguay, tried not to be one. A country - as we've been a bank with great beaches (something the Swiss don't really have - it is you're taken in by the Lac Leman and other li'l ole lacs).
Our banks are bankrupt, while our bankers are getting richer. Our government is governed - even while it pretends to govern.
GWB is sincerely shaken by the Uruguayan Drama, even if there are clear signs he can't point out the place on any map. Never the less financial bail is on its way - the destiny of the dolares is not really importante as the museum funds from the IMF are only meant to bail out our creditors.
As we are used to pay 4 dolares for every one dolar we receive through the IMF by way of JPMC & C, we multiply our debt like rabbits and seem to breed, work and even breathe for the benefit of being accepted in a globalised world - as serfs. Return the funds to the museum where they emanated from and get a life ...
We used to be a productive country. We now are reduced to only produce beggars, policemenn and emigrants. Our youth is looking to emigrate to countries, where several generations ago our great grandparents migrated from. Full circle ... Talking about tiny Uruguay ... the Switzerland of Lat Am - won't take this kind of debasement of their own productivity forever - (lightly and losely translated from Eduardo Galeano, Montevideo - a place no one in DC has ever heard of in reality)- and why should it?
Brazil, Argentina, Peru - Venezuela and Columbia for oil not drugs and even Chile on copper and all together now on steaks are lil' ol' chips in the dolares (some feel dolores) power play ... of the globalized crazed bankers - trying to prolong the utility of a dollarized in-equilibrium - of a crashing imperium.
Is it EU, Opec or even Nafta going against their $-masters as the countervalue is found out as paper weights vs real products - in the end who cares about a system of IOU's based on the premise of hollow promises of future taxation of a society, bankrupted by their own government and their federal reserve system.
Globalization in this context may become the ultimate obliterate surrogate for, you know - Take care of yourself - because nobody else will! ... some gold may help - see u - cb2
PS: Thanks G-Man
USAGOLD
(8/19/02; 17:17:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 83305)
Aristotle. . .
Your quote:
"I'm quite sure of it... Derivatives are man's best friend, and I'm a Golden Retriever!!!"
MK: You and alot of other people. We had a MAJOR day and the phones continue to ring as we head past the 5 o'clock hour. Gold clearinghouses (for the physical) are reporting strong business all day. I would not be surprised to see Hong Kong and Japan jump on this dollar price.
steady
(8/19/02; 17:01:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 83304)
golden retriever!
i to saw todays action and made a beeline to retrieve some more portable property today, they where giving it away for alot less than its worth>
Aristotle
(8/19/02; 16:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 83303)
Heavy!
To lug around at three ounces per $1,000 it is quite inconveniently heavy.
Oh well, I guess we gotta take the good with the bad.
<grin>
Wheels. Gonna hafta get me a dang ol' cart someday. --- Ari
Belgian
(8/19/02; 16:39:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 83302)
Goooolden retriever....
You forgot to add ~~~HEAVY~~~ on portable property. Let them keep throwing those heavy Golden bones...for us all Gold retrievers.
Aristotle
(8/19/02; 16:35:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 83301)
PapAva, Congressional weights and measures
Thanks for the reply. Would you then envision Citibank and the like be restricted to the practice of Narrow Banking (100% cash reserves of deposits, lending only stockholders' subscribed capital,) or would we still have the banking business as usual -- fractional reserve lending?
This might be the single most important point to consider in any overall scheme to return to a VIABLE Gold Standard, so consider it well, my friend.
Gold. You know it's Propery. Anything else is a "stretch." (Get it? A s-t-r-e-t-c-h? As in, "inflation"?) --- Aristotle
Belgian
(8/19/02; 16:24:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83300)
NO, no, nohhhh Sir Paperavalanche....
Your suggestion is NOT at all that ridicule ! Remember "Gold Wars" by Ferdinand Lips ! But don't try any guess on eventual timing.
The combination of "absolute" silence on monetary fundamentals and the complete irrational behavior (virtual gold standard) of Gold for such a long period is strongly suggesting something "BIG". Not the slightiest indication of "what" that eventual big thing might be. That's exactly what makes it so plausable. Perhaps a strange reasoning...but it is all intuition coming from the observation of such a strong abnormal outlook/behavior, on Gold as such. We strongly focus on the mechanism of, quasi permanent, Gold interventions, but often forget to elaborate extensively on the underlying variety of reasons, WHY it is happening the way it is.
The controlling derivative leverage on financials as a whole, still proves to function impeccable. There is much complacency about the perfectness of this derivative management (interventionist) tool(s). But as we all know...all tools wore out and finally break down. Maybe, there already is a replacement under the carpet as a safety net. Strongly Gold connected ? Free, free-er Gold ?
Never, ever exclude the unexpected. Emperor dollar to be dethroned by oil, or deliberately stepping down (lack of further support) and leaving the empire (NWGoldO-?) to Lady FreeGold ? Who knows ?
Goodnight from Euroland.
Aristotle
(8/19/02; 16:24:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 83299)
Whoo-hoo! Belgian, that is "PRICELESS" ! ! !
I never before gave it a thought that the WGC would be on thin ice over anti-trust waters. HA ha ha ah ah ahha hha ha ha!!
Someday I hope to shake hands with that ONE insider. About the only thing I relish more than seeing Gold's progress toward its market-reorientation (and physical-based revaluation) is to have these additional days to acquire it cheaply.
I'm quite sure of it... Derivatives are man's best friend, and I'm a Golden Retriever!!!
Cheers to ya!
Portable Property. Get you some. --- Ari
Paper Avalanche
(8/19/02; 16:20:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 83298)
@ ari.... exactly!!
There is no law that can be passed that sets an effective and enforceable conversion rate between paper money and gold. I believe that we will go back to each country re-establishing a specific wieght of gold as an equivilant to a unit of monetary measure, not paper currency itself.
Aristotle
(8/19/02; 16:04:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 83297)
Paper Avalanche -- Thank you, your item is related
I won't take a shot, but I will ask you a question, especially if you are supportive of the move you've described, that is, "the world at large will move to a gold backed currency standardization the way that it was at the turn of the century."
At what specific price level would you be happy to see our government dictate the new "permanent" price of Gold to us?
And further, under this new fiat Gold Price Standard -- price decreed by Congress -- where then shall we run for wealth-preserving shelter when the growth of the money supply continues unabated as experience shows us it will?
Thanks in advance for your insight.
Gold. Getting some more as a simple advocate for the continuing trend toward a free market. --- Aristotle
Belgian
(8/19/02; 15:49:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 83296)
OK Ari....
Let's put our stashes of physical Gold together, issue some more derivatives on it, only for those who still feel the urge to pee on electric fences with much higher voltage !
More, off ledger, papergold contracts together with more demand/uptake for physical Gold, getting cheaper with overvalued fiat that intrinsically depreciates, invisibly. Paper losses are rolled over or booked as expenses or simply not accounted for, in order to keep the boats floating. Arrangements for loss-compensations are not excluded and eventual big profits are simply to be considered as rewards for loyal co-operation with interventionists. How dare I even to suggest that this might be happening ?
A rhetoric question : How much "un-accounted" Gold is sold and circulating ? WGC and GFMS are to revieuw their statistics, together (resource-pooling) !
WGC: However,anti-trust legislation prevents the Council from talking about gold production and, of course, the gold price. So it cannot give a full picture of the gold market and there are some doubts whether, in the circumstances, this excercise is worth continuing. Oh dear.
And finally the last comment on The Council's "round wheel" kind of logic logic : WGC (insider) :It's investment that drives the gold price and the Council has to find a way of getting more fund managers interested in buying it.
It was *** ONE *** insider who pointed this out ! ONE real "glower" !
A mining industry scared to death of its own precious product ! Paranoia ? No, not exactly.
misetich
(8/19/02; 15:04:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83295)
Saudis want to withdraw investments from US
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/020819/2002081910.html
Snip:
Saudi Arabia-USA, Economics, 8/19/2002
Saudi businessmen have called for withdrawing the Saudi investments from the US in case the US will continue and allows judicial lawsuits proposed by some US lawyers against Saudi banks and charity societies, stressing that this case is deliberate and stands against all Saudi interests.
News reports said on August 16 that the case which will be filed by families and relatives of victims of September 11 attacks in the US targets 99 Saudi establishments, organizations, and individuals.
The director of "Bekheit " center for the Saudi financial consultation said in statements issued on Sunday by the Saudi daily al-Watan that the acceptance of the American courts of the filed lawsuits asking for compensations estimated at 300 billion dollars to the families of the American victims of the attacks of September 11, will push all Saudi investors in particular and the Arab investors in general to get their sums out of the American banks, so as to avoid risks of these trial cases.
The Saudi Arab monetary fund establishment "Mu'assat al-Naqd al-Arabi al-Saudi" is to reconsider investments of the retirement and social insurance establishments in the USA, and to invest them in local or European markets which are more secure.
The chairman of the Saudi- German company, Suleiman al-Sayarri, stressed the need of withdrawing all Saudi investments because of the fact that the US markets have lost transparency, and because of the fears in the Saudi investor, besides the change in the position of foreign investors in the world towards the American stances which are not attractive international investors.
**********
Misetich
The salvos are continuing . Lets stay on this TRAIL - in the meantime Oil prices are soaring - Opec standing firm including Kuwait
Sell US $ assets and buying Euro's -
Oil priced in Euros?
Thanks ANOTHER and FAO for your guide - light years ahead of the pack- though we do miss the TRAIL chats
Got gold?
Paper Avalanche
(8/19/02; 14:59:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 83294)
@ sector & the round table
Anyone want to bet that we will have in the US a new currency to replace the dollar in 18-24 months and, get this, it will be tied to the price of gold much the same way the Euro is?
I think that the world at large will move to a gold backed currency standardization the way that it was at the turn of the century. A country's currency will be relative to a standard measure of gold (i.e. $20 = 0.9675 oz. gold).
I open myself up to ridicule. Take your best shot.
Paper Avalanche
Black Blade
(8/19/02; 14:41:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 83293)
Re: JCTex
It is "interesting" to see the speculators get shaken out. This is really not much different from what we have seen before. They sell and the POG drops while Asian investors come in and scoop up gold. We were here in this same position a couple of weeks ago. Some of these speculators switch between sectors trying to catch the next trend. It is sort of like a dog chasing its own tail. Funny thing is corporate profits are down, unemployment is still high, consumers are spending less, SEC probes are in high grear, etc. There are plenty of reasons to keep a good position in gold during these times of uncertainty. I think a lot of people could get sucked into the markets - like you said - "pissing on an electric fence". Cheers!
- Black Blade
misetich
(8/19/02; 14:39:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 83292)
Yen Falls After S&P Suggests It May Cut Japan's Credit Rating
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWFSIhTCWWVuIEZh
Snip:
Japanese regulators last month said they may exempt some bank deposits from a plan to cap deposit insurance. The move would do less to discourage bad loans, which rose to 52.4 trillion yen in March, up 22 percent from a year earlier, and are weighing on Japan's recovery from its third recession in a decade, analysts said.
Japan ``needs to quicken changes to the banking system to get the economy moving there,'' said Murray Gunn, who helps manage $120 billion at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, Scotland. ``This is a reminder to the market'' and is hurting the currency.
`Further Warning'
S&P cut the rating on Japan's yen-denominated bonds a third time in 14 months in April. A cut by one level from the current AA- rating would put Japan on a par with Botswana and Kuwait.
Japan's national debt will rise to 693 trillion yen by March, the government forecast. That's equal to 140 percent of gross domestic product and would be the highest debt burden among industrialized nations.
...........
``We still think that the U.S. dollar is on a pause before its next leg down,'' said David Mozina, a market strategist at Bank of America Corp. ``We still look for weakness in the course of this quarter.''
*********
Misetich
What a dilemma - Japan's Central Bank wants a weaker Yen supposedly to protect trade - though if your main asset was in US $ you would want to protect that by printing yens and supporting the $ -
Central Bankers are fighting the market - they can't win -
Got gold?
JCTex
(8/19/02; 13:13:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 83291)
Black Blade (8/19/02; 06:42:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 83274)
weak hands in the gold market
There is an old Will Rogers saying [I can only hope to come close] that reminds me of folks trying to buck this tide in the paper price of gold:
There are three kinds of people
[1] Those that can learn by reading.
[2] Those that can learn by observing.
and
[3] Those that just have to pee on the electric fence.
Aristotle
(8/19/02; 13:05:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 83290)
Hey Belgian, how about if I add to the miners' "frustration"
I can deposit my physical Gold in an account to earn interest!!! Ha ha ha... it's that same old Money Game.
My best to you!
Gold Property. Own you some. --- Ari
Henri
(8/19/02; 12:58:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 83289)
No No Spot!
I said jump! Not Roll over...aaarrggghhh!
Bad dog!
Belgian
(8/19/02; 12:17:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 83288)
Frustration !
How "frustrating" it must be for goldminers to see evidence of increasing Gold Accumulation by various groups of smart, hoarders of the Physical Gold, while the derivative Gods are holding the price of their underground product in the derivative-fist ! Goldminers already producing 1.500 Tonnes of Gold/year, in *deficit* to the demand (4.000 -2.500). This when their precious product (GOLD) is to be distributed, globally, for almost nothing and therefore almost profitless for most miners . But we don't hear these miners complaining !!! Funny isn't it.
POG minus 2% and IRs rebounding from their lows. Derivative relationship.
Socrates 964, thanks for the comprehensive vieuw on Brazil.
TownCrier
(8/19/02; 12:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 83287)
The CoinGuy, WGC initiative for "easy" gold investment
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
In other words, let's hope the WGC doesn't waste a lot of their own precious time and resources trying to reinvent the wheel. It just doesn't get any rounder than this (i.e., calling Centennial toll free). Know what I mean? Real gold, real easy.
R.
sector
(8/19/02; 11:40:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83286)
Banks to link all ATMs in natl network
Yomiuri Shimbun August 19, 2002
The banking industry plans to integrate all automated teller machine and cash dispenser networks--which are currently operated independently by groups of major commercial banks and other financial institutions--into a single nationwide online system as early as January 2004, banking sources said Saturday.
Currently, major commercial banks with branches in major cities link their ATM and cash dispenser networks to enable customers to deposit and withdraw cash at any branch of the banks in the group.
Likewise, regional banks, headquartered in prefectural capitals, and second-tier regional banks--which used to be known as mutual banks--have their own networks of ATMs and cash dispensers.
The planned industrywide integration of online networks will provide customers of five bank groups with fee-based round-the-clock online services to withdraw or deposit cash and remit money to other financial institution in the groups, the banking sources said.
The five groups, including commercial banks, regional banks, second-tier banks, trust banks, long-term credit banks and the Shoko Chukin Bank (the central cooperative bank for commerce and industry), have agreed to join hands to develop a system that will make their respective online networks compatible with one another.
The industrywide system will also upgrade 24-hour ATM operations at convenience stores, allowing customers of a greater number of commercial, regional and second-tier regional banks to access retail banking services through such outlets.
The national federations of shinkin banks (credit associations), credit unions, labor credit associations and agricultural cooperatives are considering participating in the ongoing joint development project of the five bank groups, the banking sources said.
The banking industry shortly will begin a joint project to work out details of the planned industrywide 24-hour online system.
ATM systems are already linked between commercial banks and regional banks, but group-to-group online services are limited to the period from 8 a.m. to 9 p.m., even on weekdays.
Once the new round-the-clock online system is launched, customers of any group of financial institutions will be able to use ATMs anywhere in the country, regardless of the type of bank. Similar systems are already in place in the United States and other countries.
For their part, financial institutions that will be linked to the new industrywide system can expect lower costs for the maintenance and operation of their systems.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Another dot in the picture of a complete nationalization of all Japanese banks.
Such a nationalization will include a significant devaluation in order to rescue the banks from crushing debt. The newly designed currency has already been announced as a protection against counter-fitting...yeah...RIGHT.
The US, Canade and Mexicao will harmonize their currencies in tandem.
This is the hard-to -believe conclusion from connecting the various dots.
IF there is a non-zero probability of the above happening, then one is obligated to acquire physical metal as a rational protection.
TownCrier
(8/19/02; 11:38:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 83285)
RE: WGC initiative for easier gold investing
What could possibly be easier than making a toll free phone call and asking to speak with MK, George, Marie, or Jon?
United States 1-800-869-5115
Canada 1-800-294-9462
European Union 00-800-2760-2760
Australia 0011-800-2760-2760
For three decades thousands of investors have been satisfied. Give it a try!
R.
The CoinGuy
(8/19/02; 11:32:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83284)
BlackJack
You've come up with several articles I've missed in the last few days. Some with pertinent Headlines. Wanted to thank you for keeping your nose to the ground.
ALL: Been hearing quite a bit of scuttlebutt about the WGC stepping into the physical market in the next few months to setup an easy way for Investors(Institutional, pension fund, IRA) to invest in the physical metal itself. From what I heard it sounds like a CEF type fund, but that is pure speculation. FWIW, could be some heavy physical buying. Keep your ears open.
The CoinGuy
Blackjack
(8/19/02; 11:18:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83283)
Gold Bullion risk manager at JPM quits job
New York, Aug 19, 2002 (ODJ Select via COMTEX) -- (OsterDowJones) - Don Eckert, gold bullion risk manager at JP Morgan Chase in New York is leaving the company, he told OsterDowJones Monday. Eckert's last day is Monday.
Eckert said that his departure comes with mutual consent and fits in with the bank's downsizing initiative enacted in response to the slowing business levels in the gold division in the wake of the reduction in producer hedging.
"We've basically lost a good portion of our business through the greatly reduced producer hedging levels out there, and so the bank is cutting back personnel in the area," Eckert said.
"We're still offering the same services as before, there's just no need for the same amount of people anymore," he said.
The gold bullion risk outfit will now be headed by Neil Clift out of the bank's London offices, according to Eckert.
MO VER MEG
(8/19/02; 10:56:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 83282)
Cavan Man
Welcome back.
Please read:
Misetich #83223 for a little background.
One day soon I would like to ask you about "The Old Sod".
We visited a few years ago, Tipperary (my mom's relatives, 5 generations removed) and Ballyferriter (my dad's relatives, also 5 generations removed). Where is your domain?
MOVERMEG
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(8/19/02; 10:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 83281)
Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio
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