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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/19/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Peter Asher
(02/19/01; 23:55:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 48570)
megatron (02/19/01; 22:37:02MT msg#: 48567)
I had no clue it was easy to produce records but the reason I didn't respond to those calls was because I knew how easy it was to produce babies. As to being like Cher's ex-husband I have avoided his fate by having better taste in women and not skiing Black Diamond since the age of sixty.
Lafisrap
(02/19/01; 23:03:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 48569)
NIKKEI 225 Index
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^n225&d=b
Check the link to see the NIKKEI 225's charted downslide over the last year, approximately 38% down in a year.
Carl H
(02/19/01; 22:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 48568)
Turkey and Gold
Does anyone know if Turkey had to give up some gold to get their bailout? Any connections to the Cabal in that mess?
megatron
(02/19/01; 22:37:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 48567)
Peter Asher
Having personal knowledge of just how easy it is to produce records you should have taken their calls. The less you know in pop music the better. You'd probably have a couple of gold records and be Cher's ex husband by now:)
Peter Asher
(02/19/01; 22:25:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 48566)
Megatron
I am the Oregon "building Designer." If I'm famous, this is the first I heard! (:-)
Re- the other Peter Asher, don't know where he is now but before he was James Taylor's manager, hanging out with him and Carley, circa 1968. he was half of the British duo "Peter and Gordon." His sister Jane Asher was the red-head at the truck-stop in Michael Caine's debut, "Alfie."
When we had our custom furniture shop in the East Village of '66-'70 I was listed as "Designer." I would often get late night calls from teeny-boppers and wannabee record cutters who wouldn't believe I wasn't him.
Peter Asher
(02/19/01; 22:14:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 48565)
Now; here's what the smart guys are doing.
Sales of homes over one million dollars:
1995 - 2520
1996 - 3380
1997 - 4895
1998 - 7155
1999 - the year of the bubble; 10,300
And; 2000, the year they got out at the top: --- 15,595
Note, many of these are custom palaces, 8000 square feet and up, running five to ten million!
megatron
(02/19/01; 22:12:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 48564)
Peter Asher
Are you the famous music producer Peter Asher, or the famous Portland architect Peter Asher?
Peter Asher
(02/19/01; 22:04:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 48563)
This mornings tale of tax disaster
(Wall)Street smart and tax stupid is what that is.
It is amazing that some one can create multimillions of paper wealth and then blow it over the most basic of datums. These guys are Fat(Cat), dumb and greedy, to say the least.
This is a classic example of the intransigent nature of paper wealth. The IRS are the smart guys, they tag the value when the options are exercised. The new stockholder is free to turn his profits into currency the moment he calls the stock in. I presume the options were executed because they were about to expire. The proud owner of the easy money then elects to hang on to the position hoping for even more. He's been told it's a "Wealth factor" but it's really a ‘Wealth illusion'. "Phantom wealth" Robin just dubbed it.
megatron
(02/19/01; 21:59:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 48562)
Peter Asher
Since 1989 I've regularly purchased very expensive Pro audio gear from Japan almost yearly (>$100,000). Prior to 97
we had virtually NO problems with ANYTHING we bought. Since then almost EVERY piece us or our clients have purchased has had a minor/major manufacturer's flaw. Physical flaws in circuit boards, poor solder joints etc. These are not East European style gross ineptitudes, but it certainly is starting to look like deflation is having a moral efect.
Peter Asher
(02/19/01; 21:35:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 48561)
Be careful when you ask for a "Global Village"
You might get it!
Situation in Japan. (Once the land of 24 coat, hand rubbed lacquer finishes)
The downward spiral of their economy appears to emulate ours in more then in just banking.
A client of ours in Tokyo, recently had to move out of their apartment, to another "crib upstairs", due to massive flooding from a burst pipe. Just now got a fax including this bit.
>>> Move may be over, but not the troubles. First the thermostat in the bath went, then the water heater had to be replaced. Plumbers have been over at least a half a dozen times, locksmith twice, and I am expecting someone this weekend to adjust the closet and cabinet doors. So much for quality and workmanship this side of the pond. <<<<
At least, as an American, he no longer has culture shock!
R Powell
(02/19/01; 20:51:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 48560)
Journeyman
Many thanks for the L. Riechard White article. I just printed it and will need time to absorb it. I have thought for a while now that he has a good grasp of what's happening. There's also talk at the neighboring castle of possible large scale banking failures/crises in Japan. This is not news, the supposition that a Nikki market close under 13000 being its trigger was being discussed. I guess we do indeed live in an interesting time, just hope we can survive in it. Thanks again for the info!
Rich
RossL
(02/19/01; 18:49:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 48559)
Palladium
I read somewhere that palladium has a street price of up to $2500 lately. But that tidbit should be treated as an unverified internet rumor. Does anyone have any confirmation of that?
COMEX palladium is really a joke. Nothing in storage and outrageous margins. Why would anyone even attempt to take delivery there? It wouldn't be worth the headaches. Is this what is in store for gold and silver???
Journeyman
(02/19/01; 18:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 48558)
The big hairy picture @Randy, ALL
http://journeyman.1hwy.com/J%2DBig_OneIIIb.html
The link in the header of this message is to a very unique piece
of work which is highly relevant to our discussions on the world
economy, the possible dollar melt-down, and gold's role in the
current world. It's from L. Reichard White, the dude who brought
us "Big Float The American Damoclese."
If you want the really "big picture" this just may be where you
find it. And you'll recognize a bit of the material - - -
apparently the author frequents this forum. (Coincidentally,
Randy, he uses Turkey as an example of Hugo Salinas Price's "neo-
merchantilism" at work.)
From the link:
- *"This is the biggest financial challenge facing the world
in the last half-century."* _-Bill Clinton to CFR, *14 Sep
1998*_
*// Mr. [Albert] Friedberg [famed Austrian economist,
currency specialist and head of Canada's Friedberg
Mercantile Group] points to the monetary policy of the
Federal Reserve as the fundamental cause of the currency
debacle. He notes that since the early 1990s, *the Fed has
backed a credit expansion policy that it has exported
abroad*. He also predicts that "the crisis will widen. *It
will travel* from *Asia* to *Russia,* *Greece,* *Brazil.*
*Eventually it will come back to the United States."*
_-TORONTO GLOBE AND MAIL (January 10, 1998) [NEXIALIST
N+E+W+S reprise]_
White does a periodic compilation of clips from sources around
the world which tell various stories. I've never seen anything
else like it. The clips come from authoritative sources such as
scholars and news sources and Mr. White includes cites (and links
when available) to these sources.
He calls this form "Nexialist News" as, he says, "nexus" means
"connection." Thus the story is told mainly by the juxtaposition
and connections between clips. Since the clips are all from solid
but previously unconnected sources, whatever story they tell is
very convincing.
Regards,
Journeyman
P.S. Some of you may be wondering slightly at the URL
(journeyman.1hwy.com). Well, it's become my "home page of
convenience." "The BIG-One III" is the first page!
The Invisible Hand
(02/19/01; 18:20:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 48557)
Turkey, euro and gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010219/l19465667.html
Monday February 19, 10:43 am Eastern Time
Gold building base in quiet European trade
LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters)
…
Currencies were again seen as key for directional hints, with the euro up one percent at its highest levels in nearly a week, gaining from financial and political turmoil in Turkey and expectations that the euro zone will outshine the U.S. and Japanese economies.
A strong euro makes gold more affordable for European consumers. Silver was looking vulnerable around $4.50 and seeing little interest, last quoted just up at $4.50/$4.52 from $4.48/$4.50.
Tree in the Forest
(02/19/01; 17:50:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 48556)
tedw re: palladium
My last figures on palladium indicated Comex had only a few ounces. Platinum too. But at this point I think everyone is in default on palladium because the Russians aren't delivering. I think Black Blade was saying this. Will post more Comex figures tomorrow.
Tree in the Forest
(02/19/01; 17:42:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 48555)
Mr. Gresham
Ha! Ha! Ha! LOL. Someday we may see this!
tedw
(02/19/01; 17:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 48554)
Palladium
http://www.usagold.com
Whats the skinny on palladium now?
Mr Gresham
(02/19/01; 16:14:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 48553)
Tree in the Forest
"All of this begs the question, do we need the Fed? How about a third order (three variables) feedback system run by a computer? "
Putting this together with HBM's #48548:
Here we are in the Year 2001, and maybe HAL could become FED?
"Alan? (pause) Alan? (pause) You wouldn't think of unplugging me. Would you, Alan?"
PorterSweden
(02/19/01; 15:25:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 48552)
The Nobel Prizes may demand Gold backed securities.
http://www.nobel.se/nobel/nobel-foundation/index.html
Take a tour of the above web site. Excerpts follows.
* Mr Alfred Nobel stipulated in his will that most of his estate should be converted into a fund and invested in "safe securities".
The income from the investments was to be "distributed annually in the form of prizes to those who during the preceding year have conferred the greatest benefit on mankind".
The investment policy of the Foundation is naturally of paramount importance to the preservation and the augmentation of the funds. According to the original 1901 investment rules, the term "safe securities" was in part interpreted to mean gilt-edged bonds.
After two World Wars, the term "safe securities" had to be reinterpreted in the light of prevailing economic conditions and tendencies. In the early 1950s the Swedish Government sanctioned changes, whereby the Board for all practical purposes was given a free hand to invest also in most types of stocks.*
*** The idea of giving away his fortune was no passing fancy for Mr. Nobel. Efforts to promote peace were close to his heart. ***
-----------------------------------------------------------
Today, the fund is mainly invested "in most types of stocks" and securities without the original Gold backing.
I urge, past, present and "future" Nobel Laureates to stress their opinion on "safe securities" to the Board.
The preservation of the funds is an effort to promote peace and may be worth a Nobel Prize in itself.
The world needs honest money
as the corner stone
of safe securities.
Please, step forward to receive the Prize ...
Tree in the Forest
(02/19/01; 15:08:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 48551)
HBM, Belgian, Mr. Gresham
HBM: Love your salami analogy. Have faith; we will all survive this IMHO.
Belgian: Evidence. Very good sir. What kind of evidence would you like? Are the writings of ORO, Trail Guide, and Another not evidence? What more would you like? You have only to ask! I think they can supply almost anything you want short of evidence that would get them in trouble! <grin>
Mr. Gresham: Very interesting link and worth looking at. It's been awhile since I took servo systems but I think I can interpret this:
"The Fed is trying now to control the system based on a bang-bang controller which is non-linear in the control component. The open loop system may or may not be linear but what you are describing is a single pole controller which can only follow the output. If the system has higher order than one, you cannot control it by measuring output, you have to measure the rate at which output is changing and that is an internal state variable. I think that is what the Fed is trying to do and that is why he raised rates so far back but he took baby steps. No now he is lowering them all at once. The Feds control should be even. He should be raising and lowering rates much more frequently but in larger steps and for shorter periods of time.
If he can do this in reaction to two different state variables then he can control a second order system which by the way is what is required for an oscillation."
My interpretation:
"The Fed is trying now to control the system based on a bang-bang controller which is non-linear in the control component."
Yeah bang-bang controller is a very sophisticated EE term! (LOL) He is describing a system similar to your home heating system. A heating furnace has two settings; on and off. It is non-linear because the linear part, where the furnace flame size and output varies linearly from zero to full output isn't used in the simple home furnace. Too complicated for a cheapo system. He is saying that this "el cheapo" system is what the Fed uses.
"The open loop system may or may not be linear but what you are describing is a single pole controller which can only follow the output."
Irregardless of the linearity (or lack thereof) of the furnace, this simple system measures only what the temperature is at any given instant, not how fast it may be changing. It's following the output ie. the temperature in your home (actually at the thermostat). The Fed is just looking at one thing (or so he claims) to set their interest rates, then gives the economy a burst at a time. Actually I think he is over simplifying what they do here but I am no expert on how the Fed makes their decisions.
"If the system has higher order than one, you cannot control it by measuring output, you have to measure the rate at which output is changing and that is an internal state variable."
He is saying that the system is too complex for the single order 'bang-bang controller' that he claims the Fed is using. Imagine trying to build a cruise control for a car on the 'bang-bang' system. If you set the control at 70 mph (oops, I mean 55 of course!) and the system detects that your speed is below this, it puts the pedal to the floor! Then when the speed gets above your setting, it hits the brakes. Not too good. We need to measure not only the speed, but how fast the speed is changing.
"I think that is what the Fed is trying to do and that is why he raised rates so far back but he took baby steps. No now he is lowering them all at once. The Feds control should be even. He should be raising and lowering rates much more frequently but in larger steps and for shorter periods of time."
Now he says the Fed is trying to use a second order system, not first order as he originally claimed. He wants the system to look at more variables and have a more continuous control mechanism, not a once per quarter (or whatever) FOMC meeting. The second order continuous system would allow more oomph per decision because we are now measuring the rate of change, not just the current position.
"If he can do this in reaction to two different state variables then he can control a second order system which by the way is what is required for an oscillation."
With additional variables taken into account, the system will "oscillate" (vary sinusoidally) around some set point. He seems to think this is better and he is probably is right. It might at least keep us closer to the set point compared to what we have now. Actually, this is more like what we had without a Fed; smaller oscillations in the economy which were not so devastating as the mess we've had since the Feds founding. The Fed monkeyed with the "natural" feedback system comprised of free people and free markets.
All of this begs the question, do we need the Fed? How about a third order (three variables) feedback system run by a computer? The most sophisticated servo systems are third order and offer a very high degree of stability and control. Furthermore, a computer is immune from political influence which is what the Fed chairman was supposed to be (yeah right!) Of course this means we will never have this, so why bother proposing it! Or how about no Fed at all? But then the poor bankers wouldn't be able to make all that money.<grin>
IronHead
(02/19/01; 15:05:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 48550)
Randy (@The Tower) RE: your #48545
Sir Randy - As I recall, Turkey is one country among many, that have substantially increased their gold "intake" over the course of the past year. If memory serves me correctly, those countries included Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Russia and others.
Do you have any stats on this? Again, it is my memory that is hinting that you were the source of this information with 100%-300% typical of those mentioned.
If some countries are divesting of foreign currencies, at the same time accumulating gold reserves, it seems that we could look to those that have done the most to restructure their holdings, for a clue as to whom, and at what velocity this change over could occur, as it sweeps across boarders, no?
Any thoughts on the possible correlation would be interesting, and possibly helpfull in determining if what Sir FOA has alluded to is coming to fruition - baby steps at first by the toddlers, then a full on torrent by the giants, as everone runs from the dollar plague.
Salutations
IronHead
CoBra(too)
(02/19/01; 14:32:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 48549)
Gold - A Political Metal? @Monsieur Belgique
Eminently so! I would prefer to think the 15% Gold reserve of the ECB as a starter and probably even more of a political compromise to get the nucleus of the €-11 started. As you may be aware Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands had a window to sell some of their CB gold
a. as a means to qualify under the Maastricht Conversion Criteria and
b. it may have been the lowest envisioned gold "backing" compromise for the new € at the time, which was 15 -30 and even 40%!.
Interestingly, you've sidestepped the WA in your equation, which should, at the very least tell us something on the true intentions of the ECB and €. As the main €-Countries have only surrendered a portion of <10% of their gold reserves, while not even utilizing some more for achieving Maastricht.Cr., it should be at least noted.
The BoE and Swiss AU sales (Plus some more from the Low Lands and Austria, I shamefully admit) are a different story. As neither the BoE, nor HM's government can come to a realistic conclusion as to why, and by whom or whatfor they've dunnit in such a blatant lunatic way - also we all may guess - as to who had the say!
Anyway, the Swiss situation reminisces of Mark the Rich,
even some 20 yr's back as an attack, or let's not mince words a lever on the bank secrecy act. That's a fact.
"Better to sell some covert gold, before you're told, you're banking is on hold!"
And as to your question of who's accumulating the gold, the CB's alledgedly sold? - I hope you and I, since the CB's lost count of the amount of real gold in the vaults, since they've only leased the stuff and are counting the paper IOU's as being enough to balance their books, spooks, crooks? ... Regards from another continental - cb2
Hill Billy Mitchell
(02/19/01; 11:10:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 48548)
Same general random thoughts as # 48528 & # 48528
I was going to hold off on the following but since it is so quiet out there maybe I can slide by with this one:
HAL 2001
An allegory
The problem of Man as a creative being:
Let us go back to the prophetic movie, "2001, A Space Odyssey". Or should we go forward. No, it must be neither, for we are here. The future is now. 2001 is really here:
As I recall the general theme of the movie put forth the possibility that Man is capable of developing a computerized entity so intelligent that the entity could at some point take on some of the characteristics of its creator, even take on similar personality traits and emotional traits. It might develop feelings of jealously, hate, fear, and love (especially self-love) which would lead to the survival instinct. You remember HAL, the onboard computer, believing that he knew best, took control and became the master rather than the slave. In effect HAL rebelled against his authority.
What lesson do we have here? At least one: "Man, unlike God, can build a rock so big he cannot lift it."
Now where does this lead? It seems that rebellion against authority requires the ultimate rebellion: - the annihilation of either the old authority or the new authority, else the possibility arises that the new slave (old master) might initiate a counter-revolution.
In the end, once both the slave and the master have experienced both roles if follows that the one or the other must be eliminated.
In the good ole USA the elimination of the former masters was handled with great patience. It was handled in the reverse of the Polish style of gaining freedom. It has been well said that the Poles worked for their freedom "salami style", one slice at a time. The reverse has occurred in the USA. Freedom has been taken away "salami style", one slice at a time. Those like myself who once had a taste of freedom are the only ones who are a threat to rebel. Time has slowly been allowed to take care of the problem. Once enough of the former sovereigns have died off, the problem of counter-revolution dies with them. Those who have never had a true taste of freedom have no stomach to fight for it. The plan seems to be that annihilation of the former masters is to be handled by simple attrition. They will become so few in number that at some point in time the move to eliminate them altogether will not encounter noticeable opposition.
Back to subject - HAL:
HAL is allegorical of the quasi-supernatural, metaphysical medium of exchange, the U.S. Dollar.
It has become the master of its creator. It no longer serves its creator but rather its creator is now serving it. HAL, our medium of exchange, is "The rock that we have built so large that we cannot lift it. Those who once knew of the freedom of redeemable money, though they be few, must be eliminated. The sad problem in this case is that elimination of the ones who once knew will save neither the slaves who remain nor the new master, HAL. For HAL is not just any rock. HAL is a consuming cancer and must be FED. In this case both the patient and the cancer must and will be destroyed.
I doubt that those holding the physical stuff will survive, but just in case, I think we'll hold on to it, maybe get a little more in order to help someone else. How is it that in the face of no hope at all, the indomitable human spirit can still hope and love and have FAITH.
Respectfully,
HBM
Gandalf the White
(02/19/01; 11:09:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 48547)
More on the Turkish news
Turkey ISE National-100 ^XU100 11:00AM 8683.01 -1486.49 -14.62%
===
YES!, Randy @ The Tower -- the Turkish Stock Market is showing the effect of PLUNGE !!
===
<;-)
Belgian
(02/19/01; 11:07:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 48546)
Gold....the "POLITICAL" metal ?
I find this "political", such a nice approach for gold, that I just accepted it with no critical barrier. But, is there evidence of gold, still being used for political purposes ? European CBs, have been reschuffling their goldreserves to have a place in the reserves of the created ECB. Is this a political act ? UK and Suisse, are supposed to join in later and also adjust their goldreserves. They both sell approximately, half the original amount into the open. EMU (European Monetary Union) is in full progress and ECB is holding 15% gold + 75% US$ as reserves. The EURO, plunged 30% against the main reserve-currency : US$.
Gold was NOT used (or was it) to leverage political power towards the US, to give the EURO some relief, at the moment it's exchange rate started to hurt. The accumulated gold, hasn't done it's job in a visible way. Duisenberg didn't took the word "gold" in his mouth. The japanese on the contrary have been threathening with gold-accumulation for US$.
Have the currency-warriors a secret agreement on POG ?
US: give us all the time we need to do what we want to do with the dollar...and when we are finished...we reward you with a substantial revaluation of your accumulated gold ?
Europ : OK, that's a deal. We don't talk about gold and its price anymore and we are confident that at the right moment we will be able to lower our dollar-reserves, compensated with the gold-value-rise ? This scenario must be confirmed with a very strict dollar/gold-correlation. And this isn't the case ?
Is the US really interacting with EMU ? How is the Dollar-Euro-Oilprice, going to stay in healthy balance.
What are the obvious indications, that gold is serving, the powerplay, if any ?
If this (FOA) EMU intrige has some substance...there must exist, detectable, gold-accumulation. Are we the only ones, burning with curiosity, to unmask, goldbuyers ? There must surely exist another Wilhelm Tell, who recognises the masters in disgise and want to shout their names. The UK can afford to sell gold at very low prices. They compensate with high oilprice-income as oilproducer. But why do the Suisse sell more than 1.000 tons at such a low pricelevel.
Or is this another deal with EMU ? And is a goldsilence assured with the referendum, YES-vote ? Gold's "central planning" doesn't give us clues. Gresham's Big Players, having a seat at the Bigger Euro-table, aren't still identified. Is the clue...a US promesse, to rocket POG to the moon for all loyal assistance provided in marking up the Clinton dollar. Is Bush going to keep Bill's promesse ?
Tree in the forest : from a possible defector, I would expect one piece of evidence. Just to be able to make my choice out of the different scenarios.
Gresham : quote...forget the mines...Allow me, not to agree with you on this. South Africa has already proven to take gold and goldmining, very serious for the last 150 years !
Don't underestimate them for the next 100 years.
Apologies for the irritation caused by typos and poor English.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/19/01; 09:40:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 48545)
Eye opener! (the beginning of The End???) HEADLINE: Euro Rises vs Dollar as Turkish Central Bank Sells Currencies
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOpEyPhYhRXVybyBS
From Bloomberg:
London, Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose against the dollar as the Turkish central bank sold foreign currencies to defend the Turkish lira amid public disagreements between the country's prime minister and president, traders said.
The central bank sold at least $4.5 billion of foreign currency, according to Turkish banks that trade with the central bank. That's a record amount for one day, and amounts to a sixth of the nation's foreign reserves. Officials at the central bank weren't immediately available to comment. ----end_excerpt----
What, no mention of gold sales???? Could it be that common sense prevails?
In further explanation of the euro's rise at this time, Michael Klawitter, a strategist at WestLB, said that as a result of weak economic reports from the U.S. on Friday coupled with the G7 meeting, "The market was ready to jump on that" and buy euros.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(02/19/01; 09:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 48544)
FredBear @ # 48542
Sir FredBear,
I just read your post. Good feed back! I will respond as soon as possible.
Respectfully,
HBM
Hill Billy Mitchell
(02/19/01; 08:56:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 48543)
The Wind Bloweth Where it Listeth
Please refer to my post # 48528, yesterday or this post will have little meaning.
The Wind Bloweth Where it Listeth
The supernatural characteristics of our fiat medium of exchange seem to be everywhere. Let us look at the questions posed by Nicodemus and the answers given by the Lord.
Nicodemus enquired of heavenly (spiritual) things.
Jesus told him, "Ye must be born of the spirit."
Nicodemus asked, "How can these things be?"
The Lord answered him, "The wind bloweth where it listeth and thou hearest the sound thereof, but canst not tell from whence it cometh, and whither it goeth." So it is with every one that is born of the Spirit."
Now let us gaze at the often-overlooked point that Jesus was making. (Lady Leigh, I first ran across this understanding from the writings of A.W. Pink.) Jesus holds that the wind is sovereign in its actions so far as man is concerned. No one can tell the wind where to go. The wind goes where it pleases. Then He went on to draw this conclusion: "The Spirit of God is sovereign. No one tells the Spirit of God where to move. He moves where He pleases. If the Spirit of God does not initiate the action, there is no hope for a man being born of the Spirit.
We have a similar situation with the fiat medium of exchange in the United States. Assuming that our money supply has taken on quasi-supernatural characteristics we can draw a comparison. Could our medium of exchange become sovereign over those who are beholden to it for continued subsistence, U.S. citizens? The point has been reached where no one can tell this medium where to move. It will move where it pleases. We can no longer tell where it is coming from and we can no longer tell where it is going. It will go where it pleases and no one (Greenspan included) can stop it. It may self-destruct and take world down with it, but we can no longer control it. We cannot feed the cancer enough to avoid destruction and we cannot destroy the cancer without destroying the body in which it resides, the U.S. economy.
Scientists have long been baffled with the physical problem of killing the cancer without killing the body in which it resides. Just imagine the problem Greenspan and the other international bankers have with a cancer, which is quasi-supernatural in nature. They have this thing that will die if it is not Fed (pun intended). The thing will kill the body in which it resides if it is allowed to grow. The thing will kill the body if it is not allowed to grow. In order to kill this parasite the body must die. No wonder the Euro is lurking in the background. The "scientists", so called, are aware of the fact that the cancer, the U.S. $, must be annihilated and that to do so, the body, The United States of America, must be economically annihilated. To do so without destroying the world economy requires a transplant of sorts, removal of the $ and installation of the Euro appears to be the world's only hope. There is no assurance that it will work but no other choice avails. The Euro is in development for the sole purpose of replacing U.S. economic hegemony. Chemotherapy has not worked. Radiation therapy has not worked. Surgery will not work for the U.S.
It is appears that this particular type of cancer is contagious. While the carrier of the disease, in this case must be annihilated, the rest of the world population can still survive through surgery, via a mechanical organ transplant, Euro reserves in place of the U.S.$ reserves. Or is this transplanted organ not mechanical in nature, but rather metaphysical, like the one being replaced? I suspect that the bet is being placed on backing this new organ with a stable percentage of gold, a hybrid of fiat/real money. In any event we are presented with the question, "Where does that leave the U.S. economy?" The answer is resounding! Dead.
More rambling thoughts on the way. Just click past me.
Respectfully
HBM
FredBear
(02/19/01; 08:28:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 48542)
HBM and the Metaphysical
Thanks for the nice response. I have an idea, how about this for our definition:
INFLATION – An increase in the rate of growth of a generally accepted medium of exchange which exceeds the rate of growth OF SUPPLY of those ITEMS available for exchange via the medium.
I am not an economist, or an ORO, but it is the demand/supply relationship that gets skew(er)ed by the fanatastic growth in our medium of exchange, no?
And I agree that our current "medium" is metaphysical, mostly meta from the standpoint of electrons whirling around in computers.
But does the definiton of "medium of exchange" get more complicated as Doug Noland has pointed out, and Easy Al has admitted, when these derivatives of the medium are magically converted into the medium themselves using NewEraWallStreetAlchemy?
It's as if Wall Street has found a Black Hole that they themselves cannot travel through, but they can "inject" (I love that word) these derivatives into and they come out the other side as "mediums of exchange."
I have stated in other places on this internet that Greenspan and the banking cartel are running the most dangerous experiment in the history of money, meaning the whole world, basically, using fiat "metaphysical" money to grease the skids of commerce. It is an experiment that has been tried before on much smaller scales. But for some reason, this experiment is treated differently.
If Da Vinci actually tried to fly, then the Wright Brothers would learn from his experiments, or at least his writings, and not repeat the same mistakes, but improve on his ideas.
Here we have the bankers either not learning from previous, albiet smaller, episodes of fiat money, manias, etc., or ignoring the past for some diabolical reason.
My hope is that it is the first, that they are just ignoring the lessons of John Law, etc..
As for you wife, I like the "bury her in jewelry" idea. She has a good head on her shoulders and you two seem to complement each other well.
My wife and I have been learning about economics and manias together over the last 5 years as well. We have our "stash" waiting for the time tomake the next decision. Hopefully that decision will be to just give the coins to children of my nieces and nephews.
Gold coins are the one investment I hope I really never have to use. But we shall see.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/19/01; 06:59:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 48541)
HBM,.....
HBM: I can sure relate to your conversation with your wife about the value of fiat money. My wife was raised with an appreciation of the high end Oldsmobiles (most likely from her father). Fortunately she refuses to purchase such a car new (the true sucker deal). She does know what $$ they go for though. When going through her mom's attic she found a newpaper advertizement from 1976. The high end olds was listed at $2450. That brought it home to her. The concept of storing your "work" in paper was no longer an abstraction.
History has shown us this road many times. The advent of the Euro may delay it for the rest of world, but here in $ land the current events lesson will be painful. Economic honesty has always been in the form of gold.
I wish to suggest a mutually satisfying prescription in regards to buying and holding gold between you and your wife. Sir HBM, it is called gold jewelry. Apply liberally to the wife. Happy wife. Happy husband.
Mr Gresham
(02/19/01; 05:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 48540)
You might enjoy Tanabear's investment wisdom
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=112888
Sheesh! Those afternoon naps keep me up all night... (But it's sure quiet around here ;)
Mr Gresham
(02/19/01; 05:04:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 48539)
German Inflationary Notgeld 1922-1923
http://www.geocities.com/Vienna/5373/notgeld.htm
This is a sweet site, too. Wonder what paper collectibles we'll spawn in the years ahead? Oh that nasty external reparations debt -- print it away!
"Prices and incomes changed daily. A former student recalls: "One fine day, I dropped into a café to have a cup of coffee. As I went in I noted that the price was say 5,000 marks - just about what I had in my pocket. I sat down, read my paper, drank my coffee and spent altogether one hour on the café, and then asked for the bill. The waiter duly presented me with the bill for 8,000 marks. 'Why 8,000 marks?' I asked? The mark had dropped in the meantime I was told. The 'index' based on the dollar exchange rate had altered so much that the price had gone up by 60% while I was sitting at the table. So I gave the waiter all the money I had - and he was generous enough to leave it at that."
"People who did not convert their savings into tangible assets (or Sachwerte) lost them. Pensions became worthless, the middle class was by and large reduced to poverty. Many starved to death. Conditions were so harsh that people even ate dog meat: around 20,000 dogs were slaughtered for human consumption in 1923 alone.
"Typical is the case of a bank which, unwilling to keep open an account with 68,000 Marks, informed the customer that it was to be closed. "Since we have no banknotes in small enough denominations at our disposal, we have rounded up the sum to 1 million marks. Enclosed: one 1 million mark note."
"On the 17th July 1922, a law was passed to permit the printing of emergency money with certain safeguards. After that municipal banks, the railways, local authorities and also private firms used this law to start printing their own money. In the end it was estimated that more than 2,000 kinds of emergency money were circulating, and many of them were not authorised. "
"Many municipalities, reacting to the Reichsbank notes which became more drab and dull, took pride by giving their money and attractive look by good design and witty texts - often in verse or the local dialect. Some advertised their local industries by using leather, linen or silk to print on. One town issued money consisting of leather suitable for soling shoes as a truly inflation-proof form of currency, while one private firm promised the bearer "one pound of rye."
Gresham's (New?) Law: "When money becomes a joke, only jokesters will print money."
Mr Gresham
(02/19/01; 04:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 48538)
And you POGsters think _you've_ got problems?
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=112861
"When Stock Options Go Bad: Losses and a Tax Bill " (NYTimes)
"Many who purchased stock through the company's stock option plan — which lets employees buy shares at low prices — were left with little return but big tax bills. Mr. Van Wie, co-founder of Intertrust Technologies, an e-commerce company, cashed out only $3 million, but had an $8 million tax liability.
Though he still owns many shares, they are now worth about $3 million based on Friday's close, leaving him deep in the hole. "There was so much more risk than we thought," Mr. Van Wie said of his experience with options. "I didn't think of it as a crap shoot, but that's exactly what it was."
Mr Gresham
(02/19/01; 03:46:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 48537)
Journeyman: Gamblers' Ruin
You took the tack of "gamblers' ruin" as the effect of a government (Fed) decision affecting the entire society's balancing out of "betting" commitents, but I thought you were going to go more for the individual viewpoint of gov weighing in on one side of the bets, as when Greenie's reliquefication in Fall '98 wiped out my SPX 95 puts in order to save LTCM. (I was upping my bets to cover past bearish losses, counting on a quicker "regression to the mean.") Had I known then what I know now...
This time, our gold "bets" are made with that full knowledge (I think... ???) of govt intervention. In fact, they are higher order bets in that they are bets against that intervention system itself, betting that market belief in it and its ability to sustain itself has reached its apex, and now has nowhere to go but down.
With that bet, we speculate only how much longer our fellow citizens/taxpayers/workers will be willing and able to lend themselves to its continuation. HBM & John Doe discussed this ideology/theology somewhat. A belief system works monolithically until, one day, it doesn't.
Maybe it occurs like the fall of dictators recently -- oh, pick one at random, Ceaucescu in Romania -- things build up for awhile. The police refuse to shoot at the crowds outside the presidential palace. Then one day the dictator wakes up and his palace guards are gone. Dead meat...
Mr Gresham
(02/19/01; 03:01:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 48536)
John Doe: false gods
http://www.enm.bris.ac.uk/research/nonlinear/tacoma/tacoma.html#mpeg
I haven't gotten back to HBM's post yet, but your remarks made me think that the fiat's expansion toward infinity might resemble more this famous bridge collapse. (Which you've probably already seen.) Click on "video clip" when you get to the page...
Mr Gresham
(02/19/01; 02:50:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 48535)
Economic Model & Fed Control
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=112779
Part of the Inflation/Deflation thread I posted earlier, but these guys discuss a potential Electrical Engineering model of the economy, and the feedback loops of observability and controllability, finding themselves from almost the exact same branch of EE study and work.
Way-y-y over my head, but I love it when people use at least the mental models from other disciplines or experiences to kickstart their thinking in our own beloved dismal science. Would we recognize a breakthrough if we saw one? Or would it just look like clear, common, sense to us?
"And I knew him when... Yeah, we posted on the same Internet forum. Who'd a thought he'd get a Nobel? For that?"
When is some President going to intone, (probably with a tossed-off sneer of Depression bitterness): "We're all Austrians now."
Black Blade
(02/19/01; 02:01:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 48534)
President Won't Extend Power-Buying Allowance
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kpix/20010217/lo/president_won_t_extend_power-buying_allowance_1.html
Snippit:
There will be no further extensions granted to California to purchase out-of-state electricity and natural gas from other western states. White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer made the announcement Monday, reasoning that such a plan "creates an impact on those other states" and "affects their ability to have energy for their needs."
Black Blade: Now if only the Federal Judges can be convinced to do the same. Interesting point though is that the affected Utilities in the western states may be able to sue the government to be compensated. The emergency action was under a law designed to force production under wartime conditions and the energy crisis in The People's Republik of Kalifornia hardly qualifies. Time to wean the Grasshoppers from the tit as it were. "And they danced, sang, and played all summer…"
Black Blade
(02/19/01; 01:51:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 48533)
Euro May Get Boost From U.S. Forecast
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010218/business_g.html
PALERMO, Italy (Reuters) - Europe's common currency should be cheered by a weekend Group of Seven meeting at which an influential forecast for U.S. growth was slashed and speculation over Washington's long-standing strong dollar policy refused to die.
Black Blade: O’Neill says no, then says yes to stronger USD. Forecasts say maybe. Could get "Interesting."
Black Blade
(02/19/01; 01:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 48532)
Euro May Get Boost From U.S. Forecast
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010218/business_g.html
PALERMO, Italy (Reuters) - Europe's common currency should be cheered by a weekend Group of Seven meeting at which an influential forecast for U.S. growth was slashed and speculation over Washington's long-standing strong dollar policy refused to die.
Black Blade: O’Neill says no, then says yes to stronger USD. Forecasts say maybe. Could get "Interesting."
John Doe
(02/19/01; 01:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 48531)
@HBM
The notion of fiat currency possessing the cachet of being metaphysical or supernatural is a valid one. Indeed, this is the best light in which fiat could be viewed, and I'm certain it's the light that all central bankers would much prefer.
It gets back to the old Biblical admonition of serving either God or mammon, but never both. It seems fairly clear that the god of our modern world has become money, and not any acknowledgment of a Higher Power.
One of characteristics applied to the conception of "god" is "that which is infinite". And as the size of the fiat float begins to approach the infinite, it therefore becomes ever more god-like. Who can, in all practicality, truly comprehend a billion, a trillion, or a hundred trillion of anything? Like a god, the one, true fiat, as it ascends to the heavens, becomes all powerful and omnipresent, and its high-priests (Greenspan, et al) omniscient.
History shows that as long as "faith" in a particular fiat is maintained, all is right under the sun. But when cracks begin to appear in the altar, run for cover. Nothing exceeds the fear and anger among those who've discovered they've been led to worship a false god.
Gold has always been a poor substitute for fiat in the contest for people's adoration. Gold is certainly not infinite, but it is constant -- another, and perhaps preferable, attribute mankind likes to associate with the Divine.
SHIFTY
(02/19/01; 00:15:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 48530)
PPU Periodic Ponzi Update
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Periodic Ponzi Update
Nasdaq 2,425.38 + Dow 10,799.82 = 13,225.20 divide by 2 = 6,612.60 Ponzi
Down 13.61 from last week.
Thank You Sir RossL for the link.
$hifty
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