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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

 

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FORUM ARCHIVES
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Archives date back to September 22, 1998


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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/19/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

schippi (09/19/00; 23:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 37012)
Gold Indexes Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/goldindx.gif
Anyone out there have an explanation as to
why the Gold stocks are doing so badly
relative to Gold bullion?
Kaplan usally comments on this but
he focused on the auction instead.

XAU, GOX, HUI, FSAGX Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/goldindx.gif


Black Blade (09/19/00; 23:43:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 37011)
Hedge-Fund ABX and Inept SWC do it again! - to shareholders: "Thankyou Suckers!"
Looks as if the hedge-fund Barrick (ABX) got hammered into a new 52 week low today. This supposedly very "profitable" company isn't very profitable to its shareholders. In fact, the only ones profiting at ABX are the Fat-Cats who award themselves big fat bonuses. They haven't fooled Wall Street with their line on forward sales. If they really believe the that they are really protected, then maybe they should take a closer look at the fine-print in those contracts and break out their calculators. The Wall Street Bankers eat companies like ABX for lunch! Looks like Stillwater (SWC) has gone back into the forward sales game as well. Probably to finance the expansion to the East Boulder project. It has worked against them. As PGM prices sky-rocketed, SWC shares languished. The last time they lost out on higher PGM prices because of hedges, they gave their Financial Officer the boot. This time I suggest that the Upper Management, and Board of Directors all resign and follow the new Financial Officer out the door. It's a shame that these mining companies tend to have incompetent "Bean Counters" at the helm instead of people from the industry who know what the hell they're doing!

Black Blade (09/19/00; 23:29:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37010)
@ Al Fulchino and Oil
The bus transit system in L.A. is on strike. The news report showed that many people were crowding into small vans to get to work. Some were walking for as long as 3 hours to get to minimum wage jobs. This looks like a preview of things to come. There was some panic buying of gasoline in the UK as a rumour was spread that blockades were going up again. We are headed into interesting times.

Black Blade (09/19/00; 23:23:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 37009)
@justamerebear and WB's Silver
justamereBear : First thing one must understand about Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger is that they are Value Investors after the Benjamin Graham school of Value investing. Warren believes that one should buy something when the intrinsic value is not reflected in its purchase price. When asked how long one should hold and investment, he responded "forever". I would think that he still has his silver neatly tucked away. As far as digital cameras being the demise of the silver market, I wouldn't even worry about it. Digital cameras are nice, but a Chinese or Indian person for example is not going to spend a years salary on a digital camera. He may buy a cheap plastic body conventional camera or even a disposable camera. Let alone spend anything on computer, printer, peripherals, or software. There is also a move toward Silver Halide batteries, which have much a longer life than the current batteries. He is a large shareholder of Gillette which bought out (Energizer I think) a large battery manufacturer. A potentially larger market than digital cameras. Since he is such a successful investor and an insider, I would be hard pressed to bet against him.



beesting (09/19/00; 23:18:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 37008)
* * * * * * * * " CONTEST #1" * * * * * * * *
If I, a USAGOLD,"Poster", were to name the one specific development or event that would break Gold out of this price range it would be:

This is two questions, so I'll answer the first one first.
Specific development:
Mainland China's currency the "Yuan" gaining enough strength in relation to the other currencies to become a major player in International Trade.

A recent post by Sir TownCrier which appeared in a Chinese news release stated:
"China's goal is to bring the "Yuan" to parity!
Now lets examine this statement:
Parity to me means, enjoy the current prosperity the United States has achieved by having the strongest "fiat" currency, used in International trade,on earth. The U.S. Dollar.

How could China accomplish this?

Well most reading this agree that to keep a strong currency a currency must be backed by strong assets. Strong assets usually include Gold!(In the case of Japan lots of their assets(Yen) are backed by U.S.Dollars, which in turn are backed partially by 8,130 tonnes of U.S. Gold!)

Now China has made it known they are accumulating Gold through an arrangement with a large South African Gold mining company.(15 tonnes annually) But, how much Gold do the Chinese produce annually in their own country, to add to their existing amount? The Chinese do release official figures, but are these accurate? Nobody over here really knows.(U.S.)

Here is some more reasoning:
As Sir Journeyman has recently pointed out,(post # 36907 Silent Partners) the major reason most Governments want their countries to use "paper" money is so "Tax and Spend" economics can be easily implemented by Bankers and Governments.
Please think about this,China's Government already "Owns" everything in China, they have a system where "NO" taxes are collected from a population that earns almost "NO" wages!They are currently the only country left that may be a threat to the "Western Bankers."
The only reason China would want a strong currency is for International Trading!

Part 2 specfic event:
The Chinese, In my Humble Opinion, are very patient so they may accumulate Gold at the present rate, and at "Cheap" prices, for a long time, so the "Western World" doesn't really catch on to what the game is. But the "EVENT" that could make the price of Gold explode is an announcement by Chinese officials of what their economic game plan really is, accumulation of as much Gold as possible, to back the Yuan.
Thanks for Reading......beesting.


Farfel (09/19/00; 23:09:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37007)
**************** Contest #1: HELP US!!! *******************************

If I, a USAGOLD poster were to name the one specific
development or event that would break gold out of this price range, and send it leaping upward, it would be THE ARRIVAL OF THE GOLDEN "DEEP THROAT," a person connected directly to the gold rigging game, who would step out of the murky shadows into the bright light of day and submit to full media exposure.

In one arm, he/she would carry a briefcase/laptop filled with incriminating documents that reveal the inner machinations of the gold carry trade and the global financial/political infrastructure established to rig the price of gold and prevent it from rising as almost every other hard asset has done these past few years.

This insider would contact GATA and their legal representatives, and in doing so, would acquire immediate legal representation plus 24 hour round the clock security protection.

Why would such an insider want to step forward? Maybe a chance encounter/interaction with some devastated victim(s) of the gold rigging scheme, causing the insider to determine that no amount of personal material accumulation or power gains can keep away the nightmares of harm inflicted upon innocents.

Undoubtedly, for many, this little scenario I paint reads like wild fantastical fiction or some dreamy fairy tale; however, from my earliest correspondence with GATA, I always insisted that ultimately, unless some extremely brave, rehabilitated (reborn?) person stepped forward...either a witness or fellow colluder...somebody holding ALL the goods on the gold manipulators, then I could not imagine any scenario by which this patently obvious gold price rigging scam could be defeated.

Because so long as the most powerful countries in the world remain cooperative/intimidated and sustain US Dollar hegemony by adopting the "Wall Street way" of doing things...so long as Central Banks remain this invincible financial force capable of releasing many tons of gold (real physical or derivative versions) into the market at any moment...then it seems hard to imagine any other left field event that could really rock the gold world and break the shackles of its unusually relentless price suppression.

SO...if there is any slight tiny chance that tonight, somebody in the highest ranks of the gold Establishment is having difficulty sleeping, and flipped on USAGOLD just for a hoot, and is reading this post, then please reflect upon all I have said... and please step forward!

I say to you that, maybe by now, you have realized that which only the truly wealthiest men acquire:

Knowledge...especially the profound understanding that "what good does it do a man to gain the world if he loses his soul?"

Thanks

F*


Al Fulchino (09/19/00; 23:05:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 37006)
Who needs Oil?
If anyone here has not been reading Black Blade's posts on oil, you should be. And anyone who laughed at those who prepared for y2k, needs to understand something. Despite assertions to the contrary. Our economy is more dependent on oil than ever before.
You will often hear reports of how technology has spurred us and our economy to a point where we relegate the part that oil and its impact, on said economy, to a lower and lower percentage of importance. Just look around you. How many people do you know that can function on no heating oil? Gas heat? Gasoline? Can all the Quaalcomm workers in San Diego get to work without gasoline? How about Bill Gates? Same story for his employees. Technology hasn't changed their travel needs. Although they all can use Quaalcomm equipment and MS software to call or email their employers that they will not be in today. <Smile> Look in the Northeast. What are people going to be able to do if heating oil gets in short supply? Chop down some trees?

There is another story out of Britain today, that a simple rumour of a gasoline blockade prompted panic buying. What camp do you want to be in? Do you want to be a have or have not? Those that prepared last year, prepared not only against loss of life sustaining commodities, but equally they prepared themselves against the need to be dependent upon on the goodwill of their government. Problems that arise from issues such as oil shortages will always beg for a savior. And once we take the step to accept the help from a savior that is outside ourselves we set ourselves us for more loss of freedoms. Seek the savior that is inside you. The one that prompts your good sense.



SHIFTY (09/19/00; 23:00:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37005)
Black Blade
I got a good laugh out of your joke.

justamereBear (09/19/00; 22:57:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 37004)
Ross L msg# 36987 and a question for all.
Thank you for your kind words.

Your phrase "simple explaination for a complex market function" says it much better than I did. I don't want to post much because I get all excited, and my hair stands on end. (far to involved) Interesting chart too, altho it is not a surprise to me.
============================================================

***Question for all.*** Berkshire Hathaway purchased, and TOOK DELIVERY OF, a huge amount of silver. Given Warren B's preferred time horizon of FOREVER, I, to test my own theories, would really like to get inside his head and ask "Why?" Does he think as I do, or are there some other reasons?

What were his reasons for buying in the first place. Is he a closet precious metals bug? He claims he is not a market timer, but his track record is one always of being in the right place at the right time. If his purchase was only to make money, Paper, and leaking the news would have likely done as well. Moreover, once you take delivery, problems of disposal are greater than if you did not.

Then, why silver, as opposed to gold or some other precious metal? Silver has its drawbacks. (weight and volume if nothing else) Moreover, silver supply is quite inelastic, being largely mined as a byproduct of something else, largely copper. I have long avoided silver, principally because such a high percentage of silver is used for purposes of photography, in an age of growing digital photography.

Then there are rumors. "He has sold part or all". I doubt it, but I would look at any direct and/or indirect evidence on either side of the equation. "He is storing it offshore". Very interesting rumor. Any evidence? Why? Where? Why there?

Should you feel such a discussion is not proper for this forum, please feel free to contact me privately at currie@mqcinc.com

I have long had an urge to ask this question to the members of this forum, viewing them as a very intelligent and erudite bunch.
Thanks


Black Blade (09/19/00; 22:31:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 37003)
Great day outdoors, and quite relieved.
I heard some idiot "analyst" saying that the high petroleum prices are good for the economy, cause now "Cheeta" won't raise rates and the higher prices act as a tax on the economy, result – slowdown. Where do they get these guys?

Anyway, I feel good – got my limit today. Reminds me of a little joke:

HUNTER: I got these two rabbits that I would like to get stuffed.

TAXIDERMIST: Oh, so you want them mounted?

HUNTER: Nah, holding hands would be fine.


The Invisible Hand (09/19/00; 22:26:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37002)
******CONTEST #1*******

1) If I, a USA GOLD 'poster', were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be the upcoming (Sept. 28) Danish referendum on the euro .

In order to seduce the voters, Duisenberg & Co, will have no other option than to raise the euro's value. That will be possible only by stressing the backing of the euro by gold. In order to be sure that gold (and the euro) rise, D. & Co will have no other option than to buy gold with the dollars they hold in reserves thereby increasing the supply of dollars and decreasing the supply of gold/euro's.

One week left.


Black Blade (09/19/00; 22:20:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37001)
API Report! - Inflation coming over the horizon!
API Review: NYMEX crude up after surprising API stock decline
--API: US distillate stocks up 1.251 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US gasoline stocks down 21,000 barrels in latest week
--API: US refineries operate at 94.7% in latest wk vs 95.5%
--API: US crude stocks down 2.035 mln barrels in latest week
--APIs imply US distillate demand 3.75 mln bpd vs 3.72 mln
--APIs imply US gasoline demand 8.55 mln bpd vs 9.58r mln

By BridgeNews New York--Sept. 19--NYMEX Oct crude oil futures moved higher in overnight Access trade as American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed U.S. crude stockpiles last week fell by 2.035 million barrels, while the market expected a rise of 0.8-1.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also defied expectations, falling 21,000 barrels while analysts were looking for an increase of 0.3-0.6 million barrels. * * * API also reported that U.S. refinery utilization rates fell 0.8 basis points of capacity last week, contrary to expectations of a rise of up to 0.3 points. AT 1706 ET, Oct crude was up 43 cents at $36.94 per barrel, while Oct gasoline was up 67 points at 97.00c per gallon. Oct heating oil was up 109 points at $1.0300 per gallon. "The market didn't seem to react all that much," a broker said. "When the DOEs come out you're going to need a real divergence for any kind of major market move." The data are for the week ended Friday. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will release its weekly inventory data on Wednesday after 0900 ET.

GASOLINE: Down 21,000 barrels Gasoline data were mixed last week, with a nearly 1 million barrel drawdown in the Midwest and increases at the U.S. Gulf and East Coast. Demand, as implied by the data, fell to 8.55 million barrels per day as the summer driving season came to an end. The prior week's consumption figures were actually revised higher by 480,000 bpd to 9.58 million bpd, which put the week-to-week at more than 1 million bpd. Domestic production of gasoline rose to 8.262 million bpd last week from nearly 8.0 million a week earlier, while imports fell to 287,000 bpd from 364,000 bpd. However, when including blending components, the week-to-week changes were minimal. Traders may focus on a sharp drawdown of stocks of reformulated gasoline on the East Coast, which are the basis for NYMEX futures contracts. However, the 833,000-barrel decrease may be attributed to refiners depleting supply of summer-grade RFG prior to the Sept. 15 switch to less stringent rules. Overall stocks of RFG, which represents about a third of summer U.S. supply, fell 498,000 barrels.

CRUDE: Down 2.035 million barrels Traders and brokers attributed the drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week mainly to a 690,000-barrel-per-day decline in imports from the previous week's level of 9.358 million bpd, which helped to overshadow a slight decline in crude utilization by refineries last week. One broker additionally suggested that the API may have made an internal adjustment to last week's data. Stockpiles fell the most, 4.124 million barrels, on the Gulf Coast, in line with the large drop in crude imports. The declines there helped the year-to-year deficit in crude inventories to widen to 22.2 million barrels, from 20.9 million barrels the previous week. Inventories in the Midwest--which includes the key Cushing, Okla., pipeline hub, the delivery point for NYMEX light, sweet crude futures--dropped 768,000 barrels last week. However, the Midwest year-to-year deficit actually narrowed, to 7.483 million barrels, from 8.840 million the prior week. Stockpiles rose in all other regions. West Coast inventories rose by 2.267 million barrels, although traders east of the Rocky Mountains normally discount this region. If the build here were ignored, overall crude inventories would have fallen about 4.2 million barrels. East Coast stockpiles rose by 515,000 barrels, while Rocky Mountain stocks rose 75,000 barrels.

DISTILLATES: Up 1.251 million barrels Brokers and analysts said API's raw data suggests that distillate stockpiles actually should have fallen about 900,000 bpd last week; thus, they attributed the build in part to an internal adjustment in the previous week's data. Distillate imports were cut by more than two-thirds from the previous week, falling to 101,000 bpd from 327,000 bpd, while domestic production of distillates rose only marginally, to 3.701 million bpd from 3.697 million. The data also implies that demand rose about 30,000 bpd last week, to 3.75 million bpd from 3.72 million bpd the previous week. Thus, "The only plausible answer for higher stockpiles is an internal adjustment, as one broker explained. Distillates rose the most, 2.481 million barrels, on the Gulf Coast, a region that send the bulk of its distillate inventories to either the East Coast or the Midwest. The large build on the Gulf Coast suggests that in the coming weeks, distillate inventories in the East Coast and Midwest may be replenished. Stockpiles in the Rocky Mountain region rose a huge 1.195 million barrels. Those gains helped narrow the total year-to-year deficit in stocks just slightly, to 28.0 million barrels from 28.8 million barrels the prior week. East Coast stocks, however, fell 1.412 million barrels, the major U.S. consumption region for heating oil. The unexpected drop helped the East Coast regional year-to-year deficit widen to nearly 28 million barrels, from 26.4 million barrels the previous week. Distillate stockpiles also fell 603,000 barrels on the West Coast and by 410,000 barrels in the Midwest.

Black Blade: Curious isn't it? That Refinery utilization rate dropped slightly and Crude inventories declined. A sure sign that demand is still high, refineries are still operating on "Just-In-Time" inventory and production, and they don't want to be liable while holding any crude stockpiles. "Driving season" is over, yet gasoline inventories are down! Distillates are up, but that is no surprise as the mad rush for heating oil is on. Not enough time though, and there are going to be a lot of cold and ticked-off New Englanders when they can't get any heating oil, and the ones that do must sell their first born ;-)


Black Blade (09/19/00; 22:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37000)
Hot off the Live Feed!
Bloomberg has NY Crude currently at $37.14/bbl on a steady rise so far tonight, and NG at $5.39 Mbtu just off another all-time high of $5.41 Mbtu. Most analysts have put up 4 price targets for oil and then it should have fallen back to $22.00/bbl. What a bunch of idiots. I saw on the news that a Thai man was planning to train monkeys for some menial tasks, I submit why not? We already have monkeys on Wall Street picking stocks and explaining how the world should be instead of how it really is. They all parrot Cheeta (A.G.) when he goes to Washinton. Some have awakened from their slumber and now think that %50.00/bbl is likely. Like I say, "Late to the Party!" It looks like NG is going much higher. Some close calls on rolling blackouts today in Silicon Valley. BTW, no new power plants built in Peoples Republik of Kalifornia during the last decade. Ya just gotta love the ostriches that run that state. Remember Aesop's fable "The Ant and the Grasshopper."

Black Blade (09/19/00; 21:49:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 36999)
Hunt Brothers Revisited and Can It Happen Again - It Already Has!, and It Will!
The Hunt Brothers and the Silver Bubble
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
In 1973, the Hunt family of Texas, possibly the richest family in America at the time, decided to buy precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Gold could not be held by private citizens at that time, so the Hunts began to buy silver in enormous quantity. In 1979 the sons of patriarch H.L. Hunt, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert, together with some wealthy Arabs, formed a silver pool. In a short period of time they had amassed more than 200 million ounces of silver, equivalent to half the world's deliverable supply. When the Hunt's had begun accumulating silver back in 1973 the price was in the $1.95 / ounce range. Early in '79, the price was about $5. Late '79 / early '80 the price was in the $50's, peaking at $54.
Once the silver market was cornered, outsiders joined the chase but a combination of changed trading rules on the New York Metals Market (COMEX) and the intervention of the Federal Reserve put an end to the game. The price began to slide, culminating in a 50% one-day decline on March 27, 1980 as the price plummeted from $21.62 to $10.80. The collapse of the silver market meant countless losses for speculators. The Hunt brothers declared bankruptcy. By 1987 their liabilities had grown to nearly $2.5 billion against assets of $1.5 billion. In August of 1988 the Hunts were convicted of conspiring to manipulate the market.
One other experience in the silver bubble worth noting, according to author Edward Chancellor ("Devil Take the Hindmost"), is the experience of an official at the Peruvian Ministry of Commerce, employed to hedge his country's silver production, who lost $80 million by illicitly selling silver short. Said Chancellor, "Although a relatively small sum for a sovereign nation, it was an omen: the 'rogue trader' had appeared on the modern financial scene. "The stock market had its own troubles during the rise and fall of silver. The Dow Jones peaked on February 13, 1980 at 903.84. The day of the collapse, March 27th, the Dow closed at 759.98, a decline of 16% in just 6 weeks. [However, intraday, the loss between the 2/13 high of 918.17 and the 3/27 intraday low of 729.95 was actually 20%.] For many traders the collapse in silver was the final straw for a stock market already under siege from worries as diverse as the Iranian hostage crisis, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and soaring interest rates. [The consumer price index climbed at a 13% rate for 1979. The prime lending rate hit 22% in early 1980]. But by the year's end, the whole decline was almost forgotten. The Dow ended the year at 963.99, thanks in large part to the euphoria over the election of Ronald Reagan.

Black Blade: History repeats itself. Remember the TOCOM Pd default, and NYMEX margin requirement rules changes. The same will happen with all PM's as the CTFC recently declared that they have the option of "cash settlement."



Scooter (09/19/00; 21:46:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 36998)
***************CONTEST #1***************
As a one time poster and many month lurker here at USAGOLD Forum, I believe the sudden rise in the Euro-dollar will move the gold market up sharply. Reason being is since the U.S. dollar is inextricably tied to the price of gold a sustained rise in value of the Euro will cause the dollar to crash along with the over valued U.S. equity market.

Europe is in chaos right now over the gas and oil shortage with no relief in sight. Britain has resisted joining the Euro-community, probably out of traditional and distorted values. The Brits will not be pushed or intimidated into joining but when it comes to commonsense, survival, and their pocket book, there will be an overwhelming public cry to do the right thing. Why is it the right thing?

Because the Arab nations (especially Iraq/Saddam Hussain) will see that the perfect, non-violent, low risk way of punishing America would be to insist on accepting only Euro-dollars from now on in exchange for oil. The Arab countries intensely dislike the U.S.Government (make no mistake about that) and have been waiting for a safe opportunity to act it out. Just because some of them are buying our weapons doesn't mean they are in bed with us. Upon the advice of a Silcian Don "keep your enemies close to you" the Arab nations will have their day of domination too.

It would be very good for Europe and when Britain joins the Euro community, the dollar will then be doomed to plummet. Suddenly, the other side of the world will not have to exchange their cheap currency for U.S. dollars to buy oil. The Euro-dollar becomes the reserve currency of the world and also becomes the most desirable place to park those billions from investors from all over the world as the watch the Euro-dollar climb to higher highs each and every day. And, the interest rate on the Euro-dollar bonds will soar.

Perhaps during that time the Central Bank may decide to go ahead with the proposal to increase the amount of gold in its reserve to 30% and assure the continued and sustained price of gold in the global financial community to where it should rightfully be and that is somewhere between $600 and $800 an ounce or higher.

I want to thank USAGOLD for the opportunity to enter this contest. The reason I have been reluctant to post more often in the past is because I realize that most of the other posters here are more knowledgeable in the area of finance than myself, so this rare experience has been refreshing.


bravos2all (09/19/00; 20:32:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 36997)
Contest #1 & #2
1) If I, a USAGOLD LLLLong-time "lurker"), were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be Energy related (Oil, natural gas, heating oil, electricity, etc.)

The US paper dollar and it's paper derivative markets have a stranglehold on gold currently (AND many of the world's perception of gold-->true wealth) , but this cannot last forever........

The USA is very aware of the current precarious position of the US dollar.......If one were to envision the current global situation with everyone in the world "aboard" a giant "Titanic" ship........AND then "apparently" suddenly, with very little warning, the ship began to sink with no escape from an eventual financial death caused by an "accidental" &
very large explosion on the ship.

With most of the world screaming for financial help and assistance.........the good old USofA AND "the powers that be" will come to the rescue with a predetermined set of "solutions". I do not pretend to know how this "accidental" disaster will be resolved, but I do believe that "the powers that be" will be standing by the ready; with many predetermined "solutions", primary "subsolutions" & secondary "subsolutions".......since the ability to exactly predict global human behavior is not an easy problem to "deal" with.

I want to thank everyone who has ever posted here, because collectively you all have helped form my opinions and have helped form the excellence of this gathering place. Most of all, many thanks must go to Michael Kosares and everyone directly or indirectly involved with Centennial Precious Metals.




2) $259.70

"Price" of paper gold will be pushed lower due to a stronger dollar.......as dollars are (currently) required to purchased oil. As mentioned by FOA, the paper price of gold is manipulated by the paper derivative markets.


Gold Believer (09/19/00; 19:17:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 36996)
***********"CONTEST #1"************
I, a USAGOLD lurker, keep returning to this Forum because of the best gold commentary on the web. I am amazed at how many truely knowledgeable posters reside here. I am learning a great deal about gold and have embarked upon a path of accumulating it. I am especially fascinated with the pre-1933 gold coins as I've learned that other more recent bullion coins could be subject to government confiscation.

Thank you USA Gold and all the participants who make this a wonderful forum to learn about gold.


Peter Asher (09/19/00; 18:51:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 36995)
Aristotle!
Did you mean to put up a number for the contest and forgot?
Re -->>> And if you take all these dollars you're being
paid and measure both your past and current wages in terms of exchanged Gold weight.<<<<

You are so right! All that really matters when 'Accumulating', is how many onces your weeks wages or earnings will acquire.

If Gold stayed low despite an inflationary wage/price spiral, it would be Gold Purchaser's Heaven.


CoBra(too) (09/19/00; 18:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 36994)
>>>> Contest Light ----->>>
As I would (twenty-) second any contestant, winning a Coin of Precious Metal - by guessing or betting its future price in lieu of the physical assurance of real money - I would wager it "priceless" in any fiat paper term.

As the alleged , hedged or better "Delta"-pledged physical shortcoming of Mssr's Black/Sholes,
though nobly, stood up in "Merriweather",
we'll judge 'em lastly by their black holes,
alltogether.

As my quiver of arrows is almost depleted
while the arch of the bow is more than extended,
GFMS's reasoning by WGC repeated,
that hedging by producers is pretended -

to extend it -
minelife
not to end it
nor strive
to suspend it!

Though expand it -
deplete
and mine it
complete!
Hedger,
cheap - CREEP!

#1 Contest

For lurkers and posters @ USAGOLD - The Site " for sore
eyes, ears -
the blasphemy
of cnbc
appears
the leader of cheers
- who needs a rehearse?

cb2


goldhunter (09/19/00; 18:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 36993)
Surprise to me...
Imagine my SURPRISE in finding such widespread participation in a contest trying to predict the Comex Dec. Futures close this Friday...(is this USA GOLD FORUM?)...

Great luck to all the participants with their guess...I hope we can ALL celebrate together when this bull market takes off...I see this as a major reason we are all here...to share ideas/knowlege/and experience so more of us can have more wealth...

Onward and Upward for both physical gold and long futures holders.
May we all become wealthier.


canamami (09/19/00; 18:19:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 36992)
Question for USAGOLD - i.e., MK, Town Crier re foreign shipments
I've noted that USAGOLD now ships to Europe. Do you plan on expanding your operations, to involve shipments to additional countries?

Thank You.


Gold Explorer (9/19/2000; 18:13:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 36991)
Contest #2
>>>>>>>>>> 276.45 <<<<<<<<<<
Concern over the strength of the US dollar leads to more short covering


Yellow Jacket (9/19/2000; 18:13:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 36990)
Contest 1
If I,a USA GOLD lurker were to name an event that would send gold up out of this price range,it would be...When investors world wide wake up and see reality.Reality being the enormous US trade deficit,The ever growing credit bubble,Overpriced equity markets that are going nowhere and energy induced inflation in the most oil dependent nation on Earth.When this happens the Dollar will top out and the big rally in Gold will begin.

Yellow Jacket (9/19/2000; 18:00:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 36989)
Contest 2
>>>>>277.40<<<<<
Look for a bit of short covering this week since the auction didnt bring gold down.


Yellow Jacket (9/19/2000; 17:56:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 36988)
Hi
In my first post to the forum,I would like to say there is some well informed people here. I look foward to getting home to read the posts.

RossL (9/19/2000; 17:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 36987)
justamereBear msg#: 36959
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm

Excellent observation in your post. "In the final analysis confidence, or fear, or whatever you call it, will move the price of gold."

The western audience has been trained to accept the sound bite. The populace now expects the media or government to assign a simple explanation on a complex market function.

When it all boils down, paper and digital money will assume its intrinsic value, and hard money will be hard money.


JLV (9/19/2000; 17:40:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 36986)
Where's all the oil??
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/futures.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

cjr (9/19/2000; 17:35:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 36985)
Contest # 1
If I, a USAGold lurker, were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price
range, it would be the election of G.W. Bush. The existing players would know they are finished, although they have until January, 2001, before the physical change occurs.
They will try to leave large embarressing problems of gold and the questionable BLS stats. for Mr. Bush to face. Perhaps this has previously been posted, long,long time lurker, years and years; enjoy the mental gymnastics of the posters; remember, our strength is time, we have it on our side and they don't; back to lurkdom;


Genoo (9/19/2000; 17:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 36984)
contest # 2
>>>>>>>>277.70>>>>>>>>>

Believe there will be mild relief only, now that the BOE is done for a bit. Why? Just playing the odds while we wait for the unforeseen lid-blower


canamami (9/19/2000; 17:02:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 36983)
>>>>>Contest#2 ......274.40......>>>>>>>
The Dec. Comex will close Friday at $274.40.

The natural market inclination is "up" after the BOE sale, however the "lid" on the POG by the powers that be will not be lifted, because with the rise in the POI it is even more imperative to prevent the sending of an inflation signal, though the POG will not be lower due to the need to not make the game look any more obvious than it is.


WW Oracle (9/19/2000; 16:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 36982)
>>>>-------$ 266.70--------->
An investor with a current long position in gold who wins the contest with a low bid will cushion his losses if he does win the contest, but loses nothing if he doesn't.

Beowulf (9/19/2000; 16:51:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 36981)
RE: TownCrier
Sir,

You said:
"Barring that signal being sent at this particular
auction, the allocation price will be near the London fix.
Meanwhile, your plan would indeed result in a tremendous
oversubscription to the auction...a huge "buying interest"
(beyond the allocated 25-tonnes)that the media would be very
quick to point out was entirely, by definition, at bids that
were only LOWER than the auction's allocation price level.
The media spinmeisters and ususal suspects would jump all
over this in their standard attempt to turn gold sentiment
lower...the nature of the game."

My Reply:

Do you think it would have mattered anyway? No matter what
the price it was sold at they continue to say the same things. Even with that unexpected subscription today they place negative news about it being sold under the fix price.
In my mind I don't think it would have made much difference how many producers would have shown up for the auction except a REALY HIGH subscription like I suggested would have at least cause some skidmarked underwear today and some rather interesting backpeddling in their comments.

Other News:

Last week I made a prediction about this auction. I was
completely correct when I said none of the gold would be left sitting in it's wheelbarrow looking for a home.
Someone walked away very happy. There was a comment made by
an analysts that CNBC EUROPE paraded in front of the camera
early this morning to denounce gold saying "there are better
things people can put there money into when markets start to
crash. Nobody wants gold anymore." My reply, as I was
eating my cereal, to name some of those better things to
flee to. He didn't mention any as I was walking out the door
for work. I wonder if he would have said there is always
someone elses paper to run to. Who the hell want paper,
give me the yellow stuff any day because it shines much
better in the light.


Goldfly (9/19/2000; 16:41:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 36980)
>>>>-------$ 271.40--------->

Cause gold is going to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING until the breakout comes.

In fact, I smell a short attack coming. It may close lower on Friday.

gf


lamprey_65 (9/19/2000; 16:34:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 36979)
Earth to Kaplan!
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
"KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION: What did you think about today's Bank of England auction of 25 tonnes of gold? ANSWER: The result was exactly what classic economic theory would dictate: in any auction in which the quantity is known far in advance by all participants and the price is to be determined, the price will drop immediately before the auction so that the seller will get the lowest valuation possible, then the price will rebound exactly to its pre-auction level. Thus, gold dropped from $272.50 to $270.60 spot just long enough for the sale to be completed, then rebounded immediately thereafter to $272.50. It is indeed surprising that, given repeated periodic sales at intermediate-term lows, the Bank of England does not sell gold the way that the Swiss and other central banks do. Perhaps the British are still subconsciously attempting to atone for the excesses of their once-great empire; since the buyers of the gold are primarily from Britain's former colonies, perhaps this is serving as a sort of karmic repatriation of wealth."

So, the Comex price CAN be influenced dramatically and quickly. Also, I don't find it so "surprising" that the Brits continue to sell in this manner...it's NEVER been about getting a good price! You don't need "karmic repatriation" here, just plain ol' common sense. Duh.


Aristotle (9/19/2000; 16:27:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 36978)
>>>>------- COMEX Dec. "Au" for few FRN's --------->
Sellers of the easy-to-come-by COMEX Gold contracts will continue to make them available for some quantity of Federal Reserve Notes that serves their needs. While this continues and the current market psychology remains intact, these easy-to-come-by FRN's can be prudently exchanged for not-so-easy-to-come-by physical Gold -- nicely priced near 21-year lows.

Are dollars (FRN's), in fact, easy to come by? Granted, the market analysts may all talk about the "STRONG dollar," but that being the case, why are wages so HIGH? Have nominal American wages EVER been this high before? NO. And if you take all these dollars you're being paid and measure both your past and current wages in terms of exchanged Gold weight... well, that is one HUGE reason to smile!! Let the good times roll!

It's a very bright picture when you understand and consider the doubly favorable exchange rates (based on high nominal salaries and low Gold prices) and the simple concept of real earned wealth assets suitable for saving.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle


Peter Asher (9/19/2000; 16:07:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 36977)
>>>>>----- $280.20 ----->

The 30 day, 60 day and six month charts of the London Fix all show firm flat bottoms indicating IMO careful accumulation at spot $272. Today's auction shows negligible discount for the "Extra" 25 tons which is further indication of a genuine bottom.

Given an end of month Future expiry "They" will probably hold the current strike range with a mini-spike on the close.

BTW the average of all posts at this moment is $279.40.


R Powell (9/19/2000; 15:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 36976)
Contest #2

Contest # Two
>>>>>-----$281.40---->>>

This small rise will be caused by local COMEX floor traders trying to position themselves on the long side. They sense something in the wind, perhaps a slight change in investor sentiment.


Humble Pie (9/19/2000; 15:45:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 36975)
(No Subject)
contest 2 >>>>>278.50 ------ I feel the price will drift back up somewhat to reflect lack of selling by the paper hangers et al. The event to come that will destroy the paper market and propell psysical to who knows where is yet to happen.

Cavan Man (9/19/2000; 15:33:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 36974)
PS: CB2
If not now, when? Yes, NOW!

Million dollar question is, "what is the price"? Service and quality good. Good evening...CM


Cavan Man (9/19/2000; 15:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 36973)
CB2
My friend....till the reprise....WAII.

Prediction: EU's Euros/Bbl in the nick of time for Danes...approved by a whisker.


Buena Fe (9/19/2000; 15:06:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 36972)
Black Gold.......not much around
http://www2.marketwatch.com/headlines/headlines.asp?topic=0&source=htx%2Fhttp2_mw
17:04 [CL,VO] API SAYS CRUDE STOCKS DOWN 2.035 MLN BARRELS IN LATEST WEEK

Bingo!!!!!!!! Suprise Suprise


CoBra(too) (9/19/2000; 15:06:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 36971)
London Gold "Fix" -
... Well friends, as it seems London or is it LBMA told you all along they're "fixing" the price of gold - even twice a day - and if that's not enough NY is taking over and they assuredly make sure to fix the POG to their and their associates needs!

Happy fixing, x-ing and double-x-ing to my not so good friends at GFMS, WGC and the regulatory "bodies" (a term 'reminiscent' of their future - clamping down on usurpators and their funny rules - as long as they're too small to be noticed - the rules and regulations stick.

What a great brave new world, where the risk is equally shared, though only by the unequal midgets or better minions - working overtime in order to keep the "too big to fail" vampires in their bloody, greedy and ill-conceived paper mess from failing NOW! - Shared or sheared? That may become THE question - !
As I understand, Denmark's referendum on Sept. 28 will be a clear vote against the euro.

It may then be time to start to believe in the new currency - since the 11 contenders have no choice as to make it work - and they don't even need Saddam Hussein of Iraq to quote his barrels in the common currency - it will need more gold backing, which would be in place - WHY don't use it?

- Ask DB, U(seless)BS (pun intened) or CS (Cheese sans Sense - no holes there!) or turn to your own Morgan, chased by former Man Hat Tan (bad spelling - though telling) - Go figure it out for you! - cb2


Bobbo (9/19/2000; 15:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 36970)
********** $279.30 ******** CONTEST #1
I believe that GCZ0 is ready to run up once again (having turned around today). There is minor resistance just above my predicted price area and with the weekend approaching (re: Friday's close), we may not break through this week. Therefore, I submit $279.30 for Friday's close and then the breakout of the weekly $280 area down trend line early next week.
Btw...GO GOLD


MidEastGold (9/19/2000; 13:22:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 36969)
Reason for my 284.10 Guess
Now that the BOE auction is over, and the oil moguls have gotten their appetite satiated (temporarily)with all of the cheap gold that they picked up at the auction, the cabal will be telling the big Arab dog (oil moguls) to back down by letting the gold prices drift back up. Make no mistake, the big Arab dog wants gold as it's food and the key to controlling its' food is the key to controlling this junkyard rabid canine!

MO VER MEG (9/19/2000; 12:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 36968)
Contest # 1
I, a USAGOLD poster keep returning to this Forum because:

A. I feel a sense of belonging with other Forum Posters

and

B. The Forum contains some of the flat out, best metals comentaries available anywhere! Only Forum Readers know how pitiful the network coverage is on metals.

MO VER MEG


Buena Fe (9/19/2000; 12:51:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 36967)
>>>>>>>---------$289.70-------->>> (contest #two)
Because:
oil will crack $39.50 to the upside.......
Dow will crack 10,500 to the downside.......
NASDAQ will crack 3,500 to the downside.........
and us physical gold advocates will finally be called upon to answer for our wisdom!
(all hypothetical of course)



wolavka (9/19/2000; 12:50:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 36966)
contest#1
Addition to original post:

Dec comex made tripple bottom and todays price action with close over 275, prior days close and short term indicators, shows breakout reversal to upside tonite on globex.

277.40 to 278, with position squaring, 5 major resistance points between 300.

Reversal based on close over 277.40 on comex tomorrow.

Fridays target 286.40


Au-some (9/19/2000; 12:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 36965)
------------$282.10-------------
Just a wild guess. I've become very skeptical of all forecasts. The market just doesn't seem rational nor does it always behave in the expected manner. More of a "random walk" with a tendency to continue it's prior trend.

VanRip (9/19/2000; 11:58:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 36964)
OOPS
TownCrier

Sorry, I meant $275.90


VanRip (9/19/2000; 11:54:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 36963)
CONTEST #2
>>>>>>>>-------$ 175.90--------->>>>

Gold is in a pot, simmering with other ingredients over a low flame, the lid on loosely. It is part of a larger recipe not yet complete. The chefs are holding a secret ingredient that they will add at the last minute. They will then turn up the heat to a boil and remove the lid. Since the recipe is new, only the chefs know how it will turn out. At last taste, more simmering is required.


Canuck Gold (9/19/2000; 11:38:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 36962)
Contest #2
>>>>-------$ 275.50--------->

My guess is that TPTB will maintain their stranglehold on gold, especially in view of rising oil prices. Gold isn't on most people's radar screens and they want to keep it that way. Inflation? What inflation?????


justamereBear (9/19/2000; 11:35:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 36961)
contest 2

>>>>---286.90---> or the next available higher.


Why? because we are at that point in the cycle that a +/- 10.00 rise is probable. (that and wishful thinking)


Turnaround (9/19/2000; 11:26:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 36960)
>>>>-------$ 287.30--------->
Contest 2 entry:

An event that will break gold out of its current price band "feels" imminent. It may be the Saddam Open, the Chinese T-Bond Gambit, the Bubbles Bursting in Air, perhaps an Asian Crisis rematch, JPM Chasing its Tail, Quants Rampant, etc.

Ahem…I see I started a trend-


TownCrier (9/19/2000; 9:51:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 36954)
Not so fast, hotshots...
http://www.usagold.com/acontest.html
…. your words are your entry fee.

*****

This second contest is one of marksmanship. Your challenge is to let fly your arrow at a currently moving target. The bull's eye is the closing gold price for the COMEX December contract on Friday,
September 22, 2000, (the Forum's Birthday).

To officially enter this contest, please submit your post (ahem...let fly your arrow) with your price guess in the subject line as follows:

>>>>-------$ XXX.xx--------->

All entries must be posted by Tuesday, September 19th at 5pm MDT along with a short explanation of approximately 30 words why you think the December gold contract will finish there.



justamereBear (9/19/2000; 11:08:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 36959)
********contest 1******
As a first time poster, I wanted a "handle" like Diogenes, but he was a seeker of an honest man. I wanted a euphemism for seeker of the truth. Guess I'm getting senile because I couldn't think of one. Anyone out there have any suggestions?

I, a former usagold lurker, believe that the development that will break the price of gold out of its current range, to the upside, will be when there are more buyers than sellers. Why? Supply and demand you know.

The question presupposes that a single event will force the issue, but life is not quite so simple. All things rest at a place that is a net of ALL the forces acting on it. Sometimes a MAJOR force can be the erroneous perception that a force is acting. In this case, a major force will be the "talking heads", who are generally completely uninformed and/or misinformed. Combine this with a large segment of the populace who accept these pronouncements as gospel, without thinking, and logic goes out the window. (note how [comparatively] few "goldbugs" there are.)( note also that I am not in complete agreement with all the perceived goldbug wisdom. There seems to be a good deal of concern with inflationary forces out there, but I see DEFLATION [a massive asset destruction] To be sure, the powers that be will try, oh how they will try, to inflate their way out of this. The most recent example is Russia, or the USSR, whichever you choose. And Japan, particularily as it relates to the attempt to reflate.)

In the final analysis confidence, or fear, or whatever you call it, will move the price of gold. (and the price of fiat money) There are a litany of imbalances, ranging from the massive credit bubble we have blown, to the artificially low price for the finite resource of oil, to the dwindling food supply for our huge and growing overpopulation, to over use of back and white laws in a very grey world, to the number of ways that we have mortgaged our soul, environmentally, financially, and more ways than I care to count. Mother Nature, who is not known for the gentleness of her hand, will correct these imbalances.

I think history will record the reason as the huge excesses that we, particularily in North America, have indulged in. I think the "talking heads" will attribute it to an oil related cause (because that is what is on the news at the moment, and I think the end is near), or to a market crash type cause.(which I also think is near) But, in fact, I believe that we have already turned the corner in our current economic boom, altho our statistics are not clear on this yet. Recession is when my neighbour loses his job. Depression is when I lose my job.

Rebuttal is invited. My interest is in testing my theories.


schippi (9/19/2000; 11:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 36958)
Select Gold Hourly Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif
Gold capitulation in progress.
Is this to be the bottom and the
beginning of the Gold Rush Up?
This chart, which in my mind should
be going up, can only be caused by a powerful
concerted action. Gold does NOT get out of
box prior to the election?




wolavka (9/19/2000; 10:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 36957)
Town Crier
Czech Republic failure to reach adjustment with imf without euro/gold increase support.

stand with 286.40


WW Oracle (9/19/2000; 10:43:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 36956)
@Town Crier re: Contest #2 Entry
Actually, I do NOT think the gold price will drop to $266.70.

I am perfectly willing to explain my entry -- but I would strongly prefer to do so AFTER the contest is over.

You choose. Tell now or later?


Al Fulchino (9/19/2000; 10:14:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 36955)
For Steve H, Protector of the Second Ammendment
"At the end of a century that has seen unspeakable horrors from the
unbridled powers of governments, you would think that people would
understand how important it is to keep federal powers from constantly
expanding. Even in totalitarian countries, dictatorial powers did not
suddenly appear overnight. The central government's powers just kept
steadily growing, using claims to be meeting some particular need or
crisis -- until, finally, freedom was all gone." --Thomas Sowell




TownCrier (9/19/2000; 9:51:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 36954)
Not so fast, hotshots...
http://www.usagold.com/acontest.html
There are a few specific requirements for the "archery contest" that you guys seem to be overlooking. Although these details may seem trivial to you, they are quite important to the field judge...me. As you toe the line to release your ARROW, you must offer a brief commentary regarding the primary elements that you expect to factor into the COMEX December gold contract settling at your targeted price level. (The earlier list of participants all had valid entries with the requisite commentary.) You see, we have enough registered posters that could come out of the shadows to provide over a thousand guesses. Without any attached commentary, this task would suddenly be no fun for me, and of little value to anyone else (with the exception of the metal winners, of course.) Granted, the prize shall be awarded based on your aim alone, but your words are your entry fee.

It's all explained clearly, right there in the rules...


nickel62 (9/19/2000; 9:43:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 36953)
Contest entry for Contest #1
) If I, a USAGOLD __poster_____________, ( Fill in the blank -- "poster", or "lurker"), were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be _The realization that the value of the currencies of the European nations will be irrepairalbly damaged by the continued aquiessence of their governments to the manipulation of the US dollar. This will be sparked by a resounding defeat of the referendeum of the Danish people to accept the Euro and the realization that 300 million average Europeans do care about the value of their currencies being maintained even if their bankers and politicians do not. _Politics will lead to changes in the movements of markets which will cause unforseen events to undercut the ability of the US trading firms computer models to continue to manipulate the game. Like all house of cards the game will then unravel in ways that no one can predict.______________________. ( Name the event or development, and then state your reason why.)

Or alternatively,



wolavka (9/19/2000; 9:43:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 36952)
contest # 1
announcement coming out of prague meeting

MidEastGold (9/19/2000; 9:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 36951)
A deal too good to pass up.......>>>Contest Entries:
Contest 1:Why we daily return to USA Gold. USAGold is the best site that caters to the most informed gold investors on the web. USAGold discourages non-sensical posting which are encouraged at other sites and which are simply grievious. In addition, as we see the Global Euro/Oil drama unfold, it has been like having the script of an upcoming "blockbuster" movie before the rest of the world sees it. MK gave us the script by encouraging intelligent posters to visit his site.


Contest 2: >>>>-------$ 284.10--------->



wolavka (9/19/2000; 9:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 36950)
accumulation of selling pressure
coming to halt with tripple bottom being put in dec . Close over magic # 277.40 today is moc . not for investment advice.

wolavka (9/19/2000; 9:26:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 36949)
Contest #2
286.40

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (9/19/2000; 9:25:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 36948)
Euro word war hots up, Berlin tells IMF 'butt out'
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/000919/80/ajtlo.html
(Wrapup of comments from Welteke, Solbes, Eichel, Mcteer and IMF after euro hit new lows)
By Alister Bull, European Economics Correspondent

FRANKFURT, Sept 19 (Reuters) - European finance bosses on Tuesday resumed a verbal battle over the euro as Berlin told the IMF to mind its own business after a leading official suggested intervention might help the battered single currency.

A German government source said that International Monetary Fund advice to the ECB over intervention was not welcome as German Finance Minister Hans Eichel separately reiterated that Berlin had no use for a weak currency.

The euro earlier touched a fresh lifetime low against the dollar as speculation mounted that an upcoming gathering of Group of Seven finance ministers would produce words but few deeds to restore its fortunes.

The unit has lost almost a third of its value against the dollar since its launch last year, hurt by unflattering comparisons with the faster growing United States.


EURO 'BANANA CURRENCY'

This has sapped popular support for the currency in Denmark, which votes on September 28 over membership of monetary union, and also in Germany where many people resent the impending loss of their mighty mark.

Analysts say the euro's collapse and the shift in voter sentiment in Denmark are feeding on each other and that a "no" vote from Denmark could exacerbate the downward trend and might call monetary union itself into question.

Seizing on its fresh depreciation, a conservative German politician on Tuesday observed that it reminded him "more of a banana republic currency rather than a currency representing the potential of the European Union's economy".

Its woeful performance has been taken by some as a damning verdict on the regional outlook. But European leaders have repeatedly stressed that this ignored the region's strong fundamentals and did so again on Tuesday.

Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke reiterated his belief that the euro was undervalued "by any measure" but would recover once financial markets recognised their mistake.

His words were echoed by German central bank number two, Juergen Stark, who complained that markets were overly negative in their treatment of the currency and had wilfuly ignored European pledges on crucial tax and pension reform.

"The markets obviously lean towards an asymmetrical view of things, with matching consequences for the external value of the euro," Stark said in Frankfurt.


IMF OFFERS ADVICE ON EURO, BERLIN NOT AMUSED

IMF chief economist Michael Mussa separately offered the fund's view of the currency crisis, agreeing that it was too weak and urging that the European Central Bank take action.

"The markets have pushed the euro somewhat too low relative to fundamentals," Mussa told a news conference in Prague launching the fund's twice-yearly World Economic Outlook.

"Circumstances for intervention are relatively rare, but they do arise," he added. "One has to ask 'if not now, when?'"

READ THE REST AT THE LINK


WW Oracle (9/19/2000; 9:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 36947)
Contest Entry
$266.70
(Contest #2)



WW Oracle (9/19/2000; 9:14:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 36946)
Contest Entry
$266.70



agbull (9/19/2000; 9:14:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 36945)
Contest #2
$272.30

WW Oracle (9/19/2000; 9:10:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 36944)
Questions about BOE Auctions
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/goldauctnot006.pdf
I have been pondering exactly why the BOE chooses to dispose of its gold the way it does, as well as the results of today's auction. (The link above is the BOE's gold auction announcement.)

Some questions:

Why choose dollars, not pounds, for settlement?

What/who determines the "lowest acceptable price" chosen?

Why deliver the monies to the N.Y. Fed, yet pick up the metal in London?

Why the disclaimer at the bottom of the announcements -- implicitly implying that the BOE gets to choose who receives its gold, no matter what price is offerred?

Why choose to give out the information about the results of the auction in such a strange fashion?


TownCrier (9/19/2000; 9:05:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 36943)
Official BOE Press Release of Auction Results ... and date for next
H M Government Gold Auction Result: 19 September 2000

The Bank of England announces that the gold on offer (approximately 25 tonnes or 803,600 ounces) has been allotted in full at a price of $270.60 per ounce. Details of the result are as follows:

Amount of gold on offer (approx.) = 803,600 oz
Amount applied for = 2,103,600 oz
Times covered = 2.6 times
Amount allotted to bidders = 804,400 oz
Allotment price = $270.60
Scaling factor at allotment price = 15.6522%

All accepted bids which were made at prices above the allotment price have been allotted in full at the allotment price. Valid bids made at the allotment price have been allotted an amount of gold equal to the amount bid for multiplied by the above scaling factor and rounded up to the nearest 400 ounces.

By close of business in London today, applicants whose bids have been successful in whole or in part will be notified by the Bank of England of the exact weight of the gold bars allotted to them and the amount payable in respect of their purchase. Payment must be made in US dollars to the Bank of England's account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, no later than 12 noon New York time on 21 September 2000.

On 3 March 2000 , H M Treasury announced that, the Bank of England, on behalf of HM Treasury, is to sell approximately 150 tonnes of gold from the Exchange Equalisation Account in a programme of six auctions of around 25 tonnes each in the financial year 2000/2001 on the terms and conditions set out in an Information Memorandum which was published on 3 March 2000. This is the third auction in the programme of six. The first two auctions were held on Tuesday 23 May and Wednesday 12 July 2000. It is intended that the next auction will be held on Tuesday 7 November. The remaining auctions will be held on dates to be announced in January and March 2001.


Turnaround (9/19/2000; 9:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 36942)
Contest entry
Gold at $287.30
Why? No reason at all.


TownCrier (9/19/2000; 8:58:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 36941)
Hear ye! Hear ye! A call to contest! WIN GOLD!! One contest deadline approaches this afternoon!
http://www.usagold.com/acontest.html
Click the link to see the contest rules, and let the games begin!

To celebrate the approach of September 22nd, marking the second anniversary of the birth of the Forum here at USAGOLD, we have organized several games of skill and luck for your participation...with prizes of GOLD to be awarded to the several winners.

The deadline for the contest #2 (gold marksmanship) approaches this afternoon at 5:00 pm Mountain Time (17:00 Forum time). There is a 20 franc gold French angel coin on the line for the winning entry, and U.S. silver Eagles for the next two runners up. See the link above for complete contest rules.

Official entries thus far for Contest #2 include:

Black Blade (9/18/2000; 6:04:27MT)>>>>------- $273.80 --------->
JavaMan (09/18/00; 15:48:13MT) >>>>-------$272.00--------->
RossL (09/18/00; 16:16:05MT) >>>>-------$ 276.10--------->
Gandalf the White (09/18/00; 18:16:57MT) >>>>-------$ 277.90--------->
Canuck (09/18/00; 20:37:40MT) >>>>------- $ 269.60 --------->
Journeyman (09/18/00; 20:54:53MT) >>>>-------$268.53 --------->
andrew the kiwi (09/18/00; 21:17:11MT) >>>>-------$285.50---------->
beesting (09/18/00; 23:45:31MT) >>>>>------------------$280.10------------------>
Simply Me (9/19/2000; 8:34:39MT) >>>>-------$ 284.70--------->


Simply Me (9/19/2000; 8:34:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 36940)
>>>>-------$ 284.70--------->
My entry for Contest #2..the Dec. Gold Comex magic number is $284.70. Why?
I think this game has a little time before the final bell. I think there will be a little rebound after the BOE auction. The dollar, euro, oil, stock market, and paper gold market kettles are at the boiling point but we aren't seeing many bubbles on the surface yet. October surprise? Maybe.


marty (9/19/2000; 7:22:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 36939)
Australian Gold Shares
For several years I have been an intermittent "lurker" to this site. I get drawn back by the range of informed and insightful comment not readily found elsewhere. This is especially true for such issues as gold mining company hedging. I would be interested to know, in this my first post, the current viewpoint on which Australian gold and silver mining companies are considered good value having regard to limited hedging commitment, below ground reserves, extraction costs etc. This issue may already have been dicussed in previous posts, in which case I do not wish to reopen the discussion and would be satisfied with referral to the relevant dates. Thanks for any opinions offered.

Zenidea (9/19/2000; 6:47:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 36938)
(No Subject)
Has anyone read the story of Socrates . re: big and small?.
or actually understood the premises or relativity he was jargoning on about before his drink of hemlock at 70 odd and equated that with whats going on in the present ?.
Blah blah.
Those that know not and know they know not; Teach
Those that know and know not they know ; Show
Those that know and know they know; Follow
Those that know and think they know; Shun .
We all know the more one knows the obviousness is !, of what we dont know. Gone fishing !




Zenidea (9/19/2000; 6:11:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 36937)
nerve vs patience
Silvers looking itchy . flat tops, violent moves, the shaking finger on the trigger before the golden bullet fly's ?.

wolavka (9/19/2000; 6:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 36936)
low is in
Good day to think about gold.

Zenidea (9/19/2000; 5:51:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 36935)
Rumours
Perhaps the Aussie $ to 52 cents US for anyone playing the commodities $.

Black Blade (9/19/2000; 5:32:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 36934)
PR Release on BOE Auction
LONDON (Reuters, 19 Sep 2000 13:20) - Gold fell to $270.60/$271.10 a troy ounce after the Bank of England's 25-tonne bullion auction on Tuesday.

Immediately before the sale result was announced the price had been $271.15/$271.65. Gold had fixed at $272.00 a troy ounce on Tuesday morning.

The Bank of England sold 804,400 ounces of gold at $270.60 an ounce in the third of a second series of auctions. The sale was 2.6 times covered.



The Invisible Hand (9/19/2000; 5:27:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 36933)
BOA auction
http://www;kitco.com
Date: Tue Sep 19 2000 07:18
uptick (BOE AUCTION) ID#28059:

gold was sold at just slightly under market price...would guess about 50 cents to 80 under...... R ...


Black Blade (9/19/2000; 5:21:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 36932)
NOTICE: BOE Gold 2.6 times subscribed!
Well, not as bad as some would have us believe.

Black Blade (9/19/2000; 5:17:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 36931)
NOTICE: All BOE Gold Auctioned at $270.60
Sold slightly below spot! No other news yet!

wolavka (9/19/2000; 5:03:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 36930)
Current Banking
The only profession that labors incessantly to destroy the reason for its own existence.

RossL (9/19/2000; 4:36:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 36929)
******CONTEST #1*******
Have a nice day!

If I, a USAGOLD poster, were to name the one specific development or event that would break gold out of this price range, it would be due to the liquidation of short positions by a large derivative trading institution trying to unwind a gold carry trade. The buying will trigger panic short covering by other institutions at a time when the gold lease rate is rising and the liquidity is evaporating in the market for London Good Delivery bars. Just prior to this event, volatile currency markets will force some of the large derivative trading institutions to take large losses in currency derivative trades that will precipitate the need to cover their gold short position.


Black Blade (9/19/2000; 4:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 36928)
"Morning Wakeup Call!" - Awaiting BOE Results
Sources: BridgeNews and Reuters
Asia Precious Metals Review: Gold focuses on Tuesday's BOE auction
By Polly Yam, BridgeNews
Hong Kong--Sept. 19--Spot gold traded at around U.S. $272 per ounce in Asia on Tuesday in very quiet activity as the market focused on the planned 25-tonne gold reserve auction by the Bank of England later today, dealers said. Dealers see the sale price of the auction at $271.50-273.00 per ounce. Spot silver stayed steady at about $4.85 per ounce, while spot platinum and palladium were little changed in Asia compared with the late U.S. trading.

Black Blade: Today's the Day! 25 tonnes of very cheap gold in USD (more expensive in Brit Sliders!). BTW, the Brit Slider looks to slip below $1.40 soon. Also Aussie and Kiwi Pesos look to continue falling against the USD, and makes Olympic souvenirs even cheaper. Looks like the SA Rand and Euro are taking a beating as well. Outside of the US, holding Au has been a "good portfolio insurance" policy. Gold accumulation is still a very good idea – Buy Low!

Soaring Oil Prices to Dominate
By Emma-Kate Symons
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street this week is bracing for more companies warning soaring oil prices and a strong U.S. dollar will cut into their bottom line. ``What's going to move the market is the weak Euro, higher energy prices and softening economic demand, how that will be impacting the guidance that companies are giving -- that is the focus of Wall Street,'' said Richard Cripps, chief market strategist at Legg Mason in Baltimore. Corporate guidance can take the form of an earnings warning: a company statement that profits will fall short of expectations. These warnings, especially those from industry leaders, can slam a company's stock or a whole sector. ``Rising energy costs globally are bad for earnings,'' said Richard Berner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist. ``They act as tax on business and consumers (and) they slow growth and squeeze margins.'' It's not just oil worrying Wall Street. Europe's common currency last week hit an all-time low, which will hurt U.S. exports or revenues from U.S. companies doing business there. Fast-food giant McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD), for one, last week hit a 2-year low when it warned the strong U.S. dollar would hurt earnings. New economic data to be released this week include U.S. housing starts for the month of August, a gauge of the U.S. economy's health. The data, however, are unlikely to move the market, because investors already have digested figures that show the economy is slowing and inflation remains in check. A few companies will release earnings this week, including Wall Street's premier firms, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. (NYSE:MWD), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) and Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH). The firms, which generally beat analysts' estimates, are expected to show solid profit growth after a strong summer for new stock offerings. Other companies reporting include air package shipper FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX), and retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NasdaqNM:BBBY). The financial results are unlikely to move the overall market, though, Cripps said.

Oil Prices Hit Decade Highs
Oil prices bolted to their highest level since the Gulf war, rising as high as $36 a barrel last Friday. That's great news for oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM), which hit a record high on Friday, but bad news for non-energy blue chips. ``Obviously everybody's freaking out about oil,'' said Scott Bleier, chief investment strategist at Prime Charter Ltd. ``Oil and utility stocks are the groups everybody seems to be focusing on at the expense of all others.'' Shares of household products maker Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL), for example, tumbled last week because analysts feared rising petroleum prices would cut into earnings. Energy finally is receiving the attention it deserves and the markets fear price hikes will become ``embedded'' in the economy, said Edgar Peters, chief investment strategist at Boston-based PanAgora Asset Management Inc. The stock market previously dismissed rising oil prices. ``This is a classic case of how the market under-reacts to emerging trends,'' Peters said. ``And if they follow the usual course, once they realize something's going on they overreact.'' The escalation of fuel protests in Europe, which have brought some business activities to a halt in England and across the continent have highlighted oil prices. Spiraling energy costs may spark inflation, investors fear. ``The thing about oil prices that is scary is that they're one of the prime sources for inflation, but (the U.S. Federal Reserve) can't control them,'' Peters said. Tech stocks, the market's prime drivers this year, will keep suffering at the expensive of oil and utility stocks, analysts said. Technology stocks are expensive, leaving little room for error. ``All the attention has been on these (oil) stocks and tech stocks are locked in a morass, a very maddening and frustrating trading range,'' Bleier said. The latest example: software maker Oracle Corp. (NasdaqNM:ORCL), which late Thursday reported profits that beat forecasts but disappointed investors. Its shares fell nearly 8 percent, or $6-5/8, to close $78-5/16 on Friday, on lower-than-expected sales of its application software. ``It's a tough market and a lot of these stocks are paying for excess valuations they obtained earlier in the year,'' Bleier said.

Black Blade: Alcoa blamed rising energy costs for lower expected earnings after hours, and many other companies are expected to do the same. Airlines were downgraded by investment several houses due to higher fuel costs. I had overheard an "analyst" on CNBC state with a straight face that the price of oil had no effect on energy because NG was used now. I just about fell off my chair. Is there an Island where these people come from? Ask the people in S. California about how their cheap the utility rates, not to mention the rolling blackouts like in some third world country. Also, Spanish fishermen are blockading ports. Also, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan may be ready to arbitrate between oil producers and consumers. I guess these rocket scientists will come up with some brilliant idea like drill through the earth and suck the oil out from under them.

IPE Oil: Brent opening calls mixed, but good early buying seen By Jim Washer, BridgeNews London--Sept. 19--Opening calls for IPE November Brent crude futures were mixed Tuesday, with some brokers seeing the front-month contract coming in lower in line with overnight losses on Access WTI, but others pointing to buy orders that could drive prices higher early on. MARKET: --Crude futures in London and New York enjoyed another record-breaking day Monday, with both front-month Brent and WTI reaching new post-Gulf War highs. October WTI topped $37.00 per barrel before settling at $36.88, while November Brent climbed to $34.98 per barrel before retracing to close at $34.46. "Oil moved higher following fresh concern over tension in the Middle East and positive technicals," one IPE broker said. "Saudi Arabia is working hard to talk the market down, but so far to no avail." --Kuwait's Oil Minister said Iraqi accusations that the Gulf Arab state was stealing Iraqi oil were "false allegations" and said his country welcomed any neutral commission to inspect border oil fields. Iraq has charged that Kuwait has been stealing 300,000 bpd of its crude oil from fields located on the border area between the two countries. Iraq made similar accusations ahead of its 1990-91 occupation of Kuwait. U.S. investment adviser Richard Medley said Monday that the impact of recent gains in energy prices was not yet apparent in U.S. inflation. Crude oil futures topped $37.00 per barrel in New York Monday for the first time since the Persian Gulf war on concern about tensions in the Middle East and that OPEC's latest output increase was too little to meet anticipated demand. The present peak in world oil prices will be short-lived because supply currently outstrips demand, according to Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi. The minister noted that mechanisms to control prices were still in place, specifically the price band trigger. In his opinion, the fair price for the barrel of oil was $25. Weekly U.S. oil stock data due out later Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute are expected to show crude oil inventories rising by 0.8-1.2 million barrels, while distillate fuels are expected to have increased 1.4-1.7 million barrels, according to brokers and analysts. Gasoline stockpiles are expected to have increased by 0.3-0.6 million barrels, while refinery runs are seen unchanged to up 0.3 basis points.

Black Blade: It only takes a refinery shutdown to create a major problem here. Besides, Saudi oil is heavy sour crude, and not the desirable Light Sweet Crude. Then maybe Saddam will turn off the spigot for one day and the supposed inventory increase will vanish. A more likely possibility now that the US has called on the UN to initiate a War Crimes trial against him. Sure, why not egg on this nutcase during a developing energy crisis. Supply and demand still look like a delicate balancing act where one slight misstep is potentially a disaster. Natural Gas has hit a new all-time high up $0.025 at $5.32 Mbtu, and moving much higher. NG and Heating oil inventories are still far short of what is needed for a normal winter, what if it's a colder than normal winter? Let's see, higher costs, and slower growth – stagflation? Sure why not?

@Beowulf msg. #36894: I'm not sure that there are that many producers that would be eligible to bid at the BOE auction. The auction is only open to certain "club" members. From the excerpt from the auction announcement – "The auction will be open to London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) members, and to central banks and other international monetary institutions holding accounts at the Bank of England." Sounds like an exclusive club to me. However, I think Townie is right about how the media would play such a scenario that you propose.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/goldauctnot006.pdf

Meanwhile S&P Futures and S&P Fair Value are modestly higher. Metals are mixed while awaiting the BOE Gold-Give-Away results. Light Sweet Crude is at $36.88/bbl, and NG at $5.30 Mbtu.

Black Blade: Gone for the day, gone bird hunting ;-)



wolavka (9/19/2000; 3:38:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 36927)
Russian Gymnasts
Floor: Double back front punch, try it, u. s.

SEC CFTC yov've raped investors long enough.

Greenspan correct move offshore. Good bye u.s. dollar.

277.40



ORO (9/19/2000; 0:32:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 36926)
CavanMan - In the Precious
Let's assume one is in one's 40s, has a suburban home with a market value of $200 k and a mortgage with 20-30% equity, an income in the 60-100 K gross, 2 kids 1 goes to college in a couple of years, spouse works at a retail/secretarial/light administrative capacity. One has a 401k with limited diversification possibilities into less than stellar performing funds or index fund and a ton of employer stock/options/profit sharing credits. One rollover IRA from a former employer with a rather stagnant 20% of gross income.

The main employer is in a (1) finance/retail/distribution/government/educational industry. Or the main employer is in a (2) tech/capital equipment, or in (3) assembly of consumer goods - some for export, or in (4) producer goods - for local and for export sales. Counter to this, the employer may be in (5) basic resources - mining/oil/gas/forestry. (6) employed in refining/paper/electric utility. (7) medical services or products. Same goes for independent businessmen in these areas.

One has a gross expenditure of say $150-250/mo on electricity as water and direct electric use, has gas or oil heat at $1000 last winter ($2500-3500 this winter), has an SUV and a car at 25000 miles per year and 20 mpg ($1500 last year, $2500 this year, $2000 if you're lucky).

Savings accounts sit at 20%-40% of one year's gross income. Credit card/other revolving credit outstanding at 10% of income, car loans or lease payments at 15% of income.

Advice:
If you are employed in 1-4, 7 above, reduce or eliminate your corporate stock etc. position unless you know of a wonderful and timely opportunity in it right now. You are already exposed to your employer's success for a large portion of your income.
Gold financial insurance:

A. Set target of at least 15% of financial assets in the precious and equivalent: e.g. very fine artwork of a well respected dead artist (originals - not prints) in suitcase size, or small very expensive antique rugs from the best workshops in Iran, Curdistan, etc..

B. Set target of at least 5% of total net worth (including house, cars, furniture, jewelry) in the precious.

Gold speculative investment:

C. Create a gold investment portfolio in your investment accounts with an allocation such as described some time ago in my detailed posts on the matter.

If possible, open a bullion IRA at a trusted (meaning well researched/investigated) dealer within one day's drive of your residence, and roll over your IRA into it. If allowed, roll over your vested portion of the 401k to reach either target A or B, whichever is higher.

Try to become a member of a credit union and refinance whatever you can into credit union debt and deposits.

If considering changing cars, lower your expectations and take a late model used auto instead of a new one. Do not lease. Finance through a credit union if you can, home equity would be better.

Once your gold is filled to the minimum buy resource royalty trusts of natural gas and oil, particularly those from the more recent discoveries where there is potential for further resource growth. Match the current dividend payout to your non-electric energy expenditure + 1/2 your electric expenditure, up to 15%-20% of your overal financial portfolio, whichever is lower.

Match 1/2 your electric bill to the dividend distributions (not the capital gains) from a utility fund with a high yield and an electric utility focus.

These energy components should cover your energy expenditure since these returns are proportional to energy prices. These are not intended to generate a financial return in the form of an investment. They are there to cover specific expenses that tend to be volatile. If you continue contributing to your 401k and IRA, you can put the income from these into the IRA. Some of the trusts have a tax deduction associated with them that may reduce your tax bill.

The balance of your financial portfolio (about 50% in this case, less if you follow the proportional gold investment portfolio from the old posts) should be split between stocks and bonds. Your bond portfolio should be split between high quality short term (government money market fund etc) and low quality long term debt fund. Adjust the split according to the relative yield so that you buy more junk when yields are high, and sell junk when yields fall. You may want to include a foreign bond fund in addition to the US dollar ones. Stocks should be split between a blue chip value fund and a small cap aggressive growth (this one is tricky so take one that has a good track record of consistency rather than the highest returns - at least if you don't want to spend time on trading). Add sector funds according to your willingness to play with volatility and the size of your portfolio.

Feel free to raise your tangibles and gold portfolio's portion in the overall scheme of things. Do diversify with silver. Do not add more real estate exposure through REITs but for "trades" until your house and tangibles exceed 50% of your gross assets.

All this is hypothetical, of course.




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