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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/19/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

ORO (04/19/00; 23:31:24MDT - Msg ID:29078)
SteveH - Watch some CSPAN
There are a couple of things discussed quite openly on CSPAN coverage of house and senate committee testimonies on banking and oil, as well as forestry. Gun control seemed to have a staged feel and was far from candid.

The environmentalists are thinking that they are being supported by "good ole boys" that have suddenly changed their view. The Energy committee was quite clear as to the motivation for this, though it was never stated outright. Some of the same members sit on the Banking committee. If they got 2 cents from the one committee and 2 cents from the other, it is obvious that they would be coming up with 4 cents.

The key is that there is awareness of the US debt situation, and if someone sleeps in one meetingm Greenspan will remind them at the beginning and end of each testimony to include thoughts of a world where dollars are avoided like the plague. He (and others) repeatedly tell the congress that the continuing support for the dollar is on thin ice and that he does not know when it will end.

If you expect that resources you now have but can import are not going to be available in the future because of the fall of the dollar reserve system, what would you do?
I suggest that while the dollar reserve system operates, you put out of bounds any use of these resources so long as foreign ones are available.

If you expect to see a steep loss of dollar purchasing power abroad and the probable result being an internal price inflation that would eradicate savings and make mincemeat out of financial assets, then you will find very many ME generation folks very unhappy. With today's encryption and communication possibilities, the former impediments to these politically active "unhappy" people actually mobilizing in a way that poses a threat to the control of our not-quite-elected government at all levels, is very real.
-----------------------------

The following is a rather broad and unfocused discussion of motivations and possible dynamics for the gun control initiatives.

Government has not had any worry about criminals. They don't want to take control of government. Government fears that Jesse Ventura types, and even less main-stream political figures would wrest control away from the two parties in one system we have today.

The most important steps in political control are the equivalent of mowing your lawn so that all the grass is even and keeping well selected flowers in beds located for display. Grass creeping into the beds and flowers in the lawn will offend the political gardner's genteel senses. The first thing these new political weeds meet when challanging the government is labeled "extremist" or "special interests". Then their leaders are approached with promisses and threats. The big parties then proceed to "kidnap" the ideas that caught peoples imaginations, or if they threaten power they act to demonize those who hold them.

The problem now is that any group can organize an underground organization easilly, and they can find recruits off the net. They can reach audiences across the globe and across the country. While many may have thought themselves alone in their thinking, today finding someone likeminded is very easy. Ease of instantaneous communication on the part of individuals is now on a par with that of government agents. Secrecy is nearly as easy to obtain if you really want it and are willing to pursue it. The control of mass media is slowly becoming irrelevant. People can find crackpots like us wherever they go on the net. As this continues, people will doubt more and more what the mass media and government are saying. The next stage is the one I arrived at: what is on the TV screen or said by officialdom is either one of the following 1. a lie, 2. not relevant, 3. a smoke screen meant to draw attention away from what is important.

Government will lose further credibility and lose its ability to act in secret when supressing upstarts. The initial size of new movements has grown from dozens at a few localities to thousands across the country and they have support from abroad. Tbese can make government coercion public in microseconds. The resoponse by the sympathyzers can be immediate. If they are well armed, the results can be terrible and swift. Government actions would be broadcast widely, as would the fact of resistance. It is now imperative to take guns out of the hands people who have property and famillies to protect, are active in their communities, and are sufficiently good citizens to feel self righteous when they are trampled. Criminals can have their guns, we can't.

The whole control process whereby all candidates are selected by the same people for both parties after careful screening before they are allowed to compete for attention within the parties would become irrelevant if the information dissemination structure continues to diffuse. Party candidates would be irrelevant. The possibility that when the political mowing or weeding is attempted there would be retaliation and resistance is unsettling, if not frightening to those that contol the "emergence" process within both parties. They need to make sure that the people that challange the legitimacy of the elective and legislative process can't do anything about it after they are supressed. Acquiesence to power must be complete. Resistance must be made impossible. The window of opportunity is closing and it may already be too late.

I will say that the "understanding" between socialists and bankers is deteriorating. The fact that Ventura was elected and is given wide media exposure is a sign of dissention in the ranks of our little elite. If I am right, some of the elite will be supporting libertarians or inducting libertarians into the two main parties. There may actually be a process of retrenchment from the political control system by the bankers if the government becomes useless to them, or worse yet, if the government becomes a threat. The decline of the dollar will most probably make the government of little use to bankers.

The government agencies themselves continuously seek more power. It is natural. When possible, they are sought by allies among corporations, unions and various agenda groups. These allies will provide the government official with the structure of the strategy that would enhance the official's power.

In the case of the CIA, FBI, BATF, NSA etc. authority expansion is the main motive for anything they do. None have express constitutional authority, and they operate outside any civil review or control over their powers. The only things controling them are the rules they must follow in order to maintain de-facto authority. These rules are put before congress repeatedly for rearrangement so as to enhance their power and reduce control over them.

The "law invetion" and arbitrary force agencies are seeking to make their jobs easier. To make clear why the top echelon feels both justified and empowered you need only look at our educational system.

Most people in top positions had private education or were educated at State universities. Ivy league universities educate with endowments controlled by other academics, former politicos, and top financial leaders. Their research budget was composed of government grants. Without these grants the professor can't keep his job on the way to tenure. The results of his work must keep his sponsors happy.

The fact that a university is state funded is enough to obtain partial control over its academic hiring process. The fact that the bulk of money for educating future professors comes from the Federal and State governments is sufficient to keep the political science and humanities faculty in any reputable university on the socialist side. If their funding comes from government they will allways come to the conclusion that government should have the money to give them, or better yet, that government should finance or buy the product of their soon to be created corporation or create a department which they or their graduate students will control.

How would a research project labeled "Doed the National Institute of Health Destroy Effective Research in Medicine" be received by the NIH? How would DARPA react to research projects questioning its usefulness? How would the Fed or Treasury react to economic studies aimed at showing how the banking system would function better without the Fed? Would they get funding? Would the professors guiding the research bite the hand that feeds them?

The concept of the profession instilled by these educators into their students will obviously contain the basic point that government is a good and necessary ally. The students would not be able to conceive of their professional role without government. This would go from Journalism through all the arts and to education itself. Needless to say, schools of government, international relations, economics and finance will all instill simillar attitudes.

People at the top of government are so deluded that they would play along with the actions we decry here daily believing that they are actually helping someone.

It's that simple.
The process is "natural" once it is started. The people who started it died long ago.


aunuggets (04/19/00; 23:27:56MDT - Msg ID:29077)
Peter Asher re: 29072
...."It does not hurt a central bank to loose value on it's hoard for a few years if it still has it when the price recovers. Look not at what they sell, but at what they keep".....

Reminds me of the "insane" professor in the movie Patch Adams when he holds up 4 fingers and asks "How many fingers do you see?" Only later do we realize the sought after answer of 8 fingers, seen only by "looking past the problem".

How many of us look at our private gold accumulations in terms of "how many dollars is it worth" rather than "how many ounces do I own" ?

If a central bank holds 250 metric tons of gold in reserve and never disposes of any of that amount, they will always have the same "wealth value" inherent to 250 metric tons of gold. The fluctuating "dollar (or ?) value" is really a moot point except and until it is time to transition into one of the fiat currencies in order to further transition into something else that we desire to "trade" our gold for.

The most liquid asset of any society or culture will always be considered it's "cash" or "money", whether that consists of precious metals, fiat paper, or whatever the case may be, and to that end, there will most likely always be a need for some type of fiat to act in place of "true items of wealth". To what degree that fiat is an "honest representation" of our true wealth will depend upon the issuer of that fiat, or upon those of us who bestow such power on the individuals responsible for making that ultimate decision. No politician, no judge, no police officer or other person has any more "power" than that which is given to him or her by others.

As with the computer generated 3-D images popular over the past several years, you have to "look beyond the problem" to see a clear picture.

lamprey_65 (04/19/00; 23:11:58MDT - Msg ID:29076)
Peter Asher
Yes, I very much agree...reserve currency status allows for certain privileges. The problem, as we all know, is how to get or retain reserve status.

Even IF the U.S. has and is selling off secret reserves, we still maintain a very large, Treasury-held reserve (so I'm told ;-). My question is, do we have enough gold considering the increasing amount of dollars being floated around the world and/or should we revalue the reserves higher?

As an aside, I find it VERY strange when commentators attempt to confuse by saying that gold is now just another commodity without a monetary role. I may have missed it somewhere, but I don't recall hearing of CB's filling their vaults with coffee beans, zinc, or grain!

Lamprey



ThaiGold (04/19/00; 22:58:03MDT - Msg ID:29075)
Wednesday's PATSY Index
Attn: Aristotle: What's YOUR GoldPrice.?.
===========================================================
...
Wednesday's PATSY Report
4-19-2000
To: ALL

The nightly PATSY Index shows the relative
amount that GoldBugs have been conipulated.

XAU=56.60 + POG=279.40 + POS=5.08
-equals-
341.08
Up +0.27 from Tuesday. YeeHaa(?)

Comment: I'm unsure anymore of what's the "actual"
price of gold (etc). There's Paper_Gold. There's
Physical_Gold. There's Spot_Gold. I post here the
Spot_Gold. But I'd rather post the Absoloute Most
Real price imaginable... So I'll just ask Aristotle:
"At what price would you part-with an ounce of yours.?."

Would everyone accept that as an Absoloute GoldPrice.?.

Next, I want to mention a thought I recently had: If
there's to be a two-tier GoldPrice soon, of PaperGold
markets, -vs- an off-screen Physical price, which all
would agree, is going to be much higher than PaperGold,
then *that's* the price that GoldMines will get for their
SolidGold when they sell it. ... Therefore, my thinking
is that GoldShares (Mining Stocks) will go *UP* to track
that off-screen pricing. Because they will be the *only*
viable source of real SolidGold in the future.

Maybe my NEMont Shares aren't such a silly idea afterall.!.
I can't wait to spend all those increased dividends. Maybe
I'll finally be able to buy some Silver. If there's any to
be found. Warren: What's YOUR Price.?.

Prediction: More (or less) of the same, tomorrow. It appears
that the PPT took the day off. Probably attended a big
meeting to decide what to manipulate tomorrow. And they had
other important things to do today: Coloring Easter eggs for
the WhiteHouse EggRoll.

ThaiGold...
Got Some.?. ... Get Some.!.
===========================================================


Peter Asher (04/19/00; 22:43:42MDT - Msg ID:29074)
Lamprey,
Caps didn't post through:

The entity whose economy is backed by the reserve currency of the world, can consume more than it produces.

Look not at what they sell, but at what they keep!


Marius (04/19/00; 22:39:38MDT - Msg ID:29073)
A column of possible interest re: 2nd amendment
Wow, 106K of text, and not one mention of gun rights! I know some of us tire of lengthy, off-topic posts, so I'll merely refer to an excellent column by Fred Barnes which discusses a recent CNN poll re: gun laws.

It seems, despite Clinton's and the media's best efforts, that attitudes are changing toward favoring enforcing the laws we have rather than passing newer, more restrictive laws. Let's hope some of the politicans covering their butts by sponsoring some 50-odd bills will get the message soon.

The column suggests some small ray of hope, and is well written. You can find it at the NY Post Web site (see Tues., Apr. 18 edition). I accessed it via Matt Drudge's site.

'Night All,

M

Peter Asher (04/19/00; 22:31:12MDT - Msg ID:29072)
Today's posts by Lamprey, Henri, Town Crier, aunuggets, R Powell

This is culled and edited out of Msg#21666-12/26 from the "5 Event contest."
Lamprey: note the caps in the next-to-last paragraph.

The unfolding of the BOE auctions opened up many eyes and focused much attention on the fact that the gold market was not operating on free-market principles or government non-intervention. The other important result of this was the proof that market sentiment was a stronger influence on the price of gold than the quantitative fundamentals of supply and demand. But the auctions should be seen as a secondary factor; a maneuver in a larger scheme. The BOE, the Bullion banks, the Mines and the gold carry traders may be loose cannons, dupes accommodaters or pawns, but they are not the main players.

The Washington Agreement changed nothing quantitatively at that specific moment, it was a change in policy which will, and already has, caused quantitative shifts in supply and demand. That is why I called The September Spike a "News driven rally" The effects of the agreement have only begun to affect the balance.

Short covering is a squaring of books, not a permanent change in the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand. In the long run, it is the quantities of forward sales relegated to replace borrowed gold hoards rather than new ownership and industrial consumption that will create a reduction in the supply factor. But does that quantity play a major role?

The hoarding and dis-hoarding of national gold reserves is the largest quantitative factor in the distribution of above ground inventories. Therefore the advent of the Gold backed Euro and the Washington agreement are the most basic fundamental changes in the gold marketplace. For whatever reasons exist to be contemplated and discovered, these two events are surly part of a piece.

The US trade deficit is only maintainable by the fact of the dollar being the reserve currency of the world. The entity whose economy is backed by the reserve currency of the world, can consume more than it produces. The deficit is offset by the float! Euroland has been on the short end of this stick to date. It would behoove them to attempt to replace the dollar with the Euro. As even their composite economy does not have the magnitude of ours, how better to sway the World's traders than to back the currency, increasingly, with gold? If the marketplace can be controlled sufficiently for all leased gold to be returned to the CB vaults, then the lower price of gold will have created a net buying opportunity. Low prices will only have created losses on the quantities delivered into the open market. It does not hurt a Central Bank to loose value on its hoard for a few years if it still has it when the price recovers. Look not at what they sell, but at what they keep!

We may have only seen the first part of an ongoing strategy in which the Central Banks will increase their gold reserves. This is not the only possible theory of the hidden reasons behind the manipulation of the POG, but the events of last year do fit it well. It is still early in the Game!



beesting (04/19/00; 22:21:48MDT - Msg ID:29071)
THX-1138 #29070
The "RUMER" was the 79 tonnes of Gold that Kuwait lent was some kind of deal between The Bank of England and LBMA....a bail out???...who really knows what goes on in the mysterious world of Gold trading???...beesting.

THX-1138 (04/19/00; 21:58:31MDT - Msg ID:29070)
Re: beesting
Regarding the 79 tons of gold leased by the Government of Kuwait-

Could the leasing of that gold have been so that some wealthy ME family could purchase the governments gold, without actually stealing it?

If the public found out that the governments gold was stolen they would get mad.

If some family wanted the gold, but stealing it from the government would be criminal, then organizing the legal purchasing of that gold would go unnoticed, right?

Whatever. Just some stray thoughts tickling my gray matter.

THX-1138

beesting (04/19/00; 21:43:30MDT - Msg ID:29069)
Who is buying all this American Gold?......Some speculation.
As sir TownCrier states, official sources(countrys) are not showing large increases in Gold inventory. That leaves the private sector. Well I would say Japan has the U.S dollars to buy large amounts of Gold, but Japanese imports are tightly controlled by the Government, and they are probably buying Gold jewlery only.
IMHO the big buyers are the same people who in the last 6 months or so got a 150% payraise in U.S. dollars.....The oil producers of the world!
The entire mideast region is controlled by wealthy family's and real wealth(Gold) in that region may be untrackable.
For instance, when Kuwait lent 79 tonnes of Gold last year, that may have been Gold owned by the country of Kuwait, but I really doubt if any privatly owned Gold was lent.Members of Royal familys in that area may own large amounts of Gold.(strong hands)
Billions of U.S. dollars are being spent on oil every day, couldn't some of them(dollars) be purchasing Gold in off market transactions in what we would consider large amounts? Where is the revenue from oil production going?

Indonesia also is an oil producer and considering the very recent financial turmoil in their country,Gold bought with U.S. dollars obtained thru the sale of oil may be happening there also.
Just a few thoughts to share....beesting.

Cavan Man (04/19/00; 21:07:35MDT - Msg ID:29068)
PS:
A friend called me today to remind me that today was the 67th anniversary of Roosevelt's gold confiscation; another day "that will live in infamy".

Solomon Weaver (04/19/00; 21:06:50MDT - Msg ID:29067)
SteveH on silver coin premiums
http://www.monex.com/prices.html
"My friend the coin dealer told me today that premium's are up on Gold and Silver eagles and he felt that all the Y2K dishoarding is now done. He also told me that 1996 Silver Eagles were 17.00 per coin. He also pointed out that only two years of silver remain in the strategic reserve and after that the mint will have to buy silver in the open market."

----

Steve, the above link at monex is an excellent barometer of bullion coin premiums....today eagles in 500 coin units are available for about $8.50 and I have a hard time believing that 1996 Eagles command a $17 price. If this is true, then it does speak of an emerging "investment demand" in silver. Also, it is very useful to watch the premium on junk silver...today at almost zero...in the heat of y2k prepping it got to almost 50% (parity with eagles normal premium lately). It is actually astonishing that in some silver junk units, there is a large number of "almost uncirculated" 1964 specimens...currently "worth" about about $1 each...so if Americans can get excited enough to hoard Sacagawa dollars (which will only increase in supply), why can't they get the fever for nice silver specimens as well??? Time will tell.

Silver is the poor mans gold!!!

Poor old Solomon



Cavan Man (04/19/00; 21:05:59MDT - Msg ID:29066)
Proverbs 13.11
Wealth hastily gotten will dwindle,
but those who gather little by little
will increase it.

Cavan Man (04/19/00; 21:03:11MDT - Msg ID:29065)
Solomon Weaver 29064
You make a very good point. Only a change in settlement for oil would get the world's attention. Truly, that must be the key. However, having said that, I do not believe the ME has any favorite when it comes to fiats. Euro or dollar; I'll bet they care not a whit. They hold the trump hand. They will negotiate the very best deal they can make and, they will get it.

I believe the future of the dollar depends more upon the defensive strategy formulated by the US than the entrenched system you make reference to. I will agree, it most certainly is entrenched! By the way, I am hoping there is a plan. We've discussed this before here and no one has come forward and suggested there has been or might be contingency planning. The discussion of a secret "hoard" is all I have seen.

If come tomorrow circumstances clearly dictated the dollars in my (foreign) pocket to be greatly reduced in purchasing power and it was evident there was more value in say, Irish Punts, why, I'd head straight to the exchange counter, dump my dollars taking my lumps if need be and I'd try and learn as much as I could as fast as I could about the Irish Punt. If Punts by more bread and sausages than dollars, my money's on the Punt. Good evening all.......CM

Solomon Weaver (4/19/2000; 20:43:29MDT - Msg ID:29064)
Trail Guide and oldgold
Trail Guide

By virtue of the fact that you have occasionally quoted some of my thoughts...I know that we are on the same wavelength...I also must say, that as long as Sir oldgold keeps to factual arguments (and avoids character rhetoric) I appreciate some of the discord which his apparent anti-gold statements insight here....we must all stay on our toes.

As much as I appreciate your total overview, and walk the trail each time we strike camp and move on, I still have a lot of trouble with the idea of serious hyperinflation of the dollar. The dollar IMHO represents a defacto gold standard to many people in the world...here is a very practical example...the parents of my Russian wife were over for a visit a couple years ago and I had to absolutely insist that they accept 5 little french roosters from me to tuck away for an emergency...the father said he would have absolutely no idea how to cash them in and would consider it dangerous....they would much rather have crispy $100 bills!!!!

The point here is that only a very small fraction of the world's citizens will ever be able to "understand" golds real monetary role.. they will always understand money as fiat...and I know Trail Guide that you agree completely on the need to have a fiat (with gold trading in the background).

So, very undoubtedly, there will be a battle of the fiats...the world will see but not understand why the Euro and Swiss Franc are doing so well and the dollar and Yen loose ground.

But unlike the Weimar hyperinflation, where the German govt used the presses to buy up local products for govt consumption, the dollar has been used to keep a growing international market liquid enough to maintain growth. Erosion of the dollar value is an international threat to a strongly entrenched INTERNATIONAL system...there is so much inertia built into the dollar system, that it can only destructure slowly (or many will literally starve). Also remember that the "American Way" may be unpopular in niches but it has a massive global acceptance right now..a psychological support for the dollar.

Gold is certainly the best hedge against the coming fiat turmoil, but anyone who bets on a strong demise of the dollar (to less than 50% of today's purchasing power within 2 years) is at risk of underestimating the fact that money or no money, America has been the leading economy in the most magnificient 1/2 century in mankind's collective history (in regards to material advancement).

As strong as the Euro may become, when supported on a solid bedrock of gold, there is no way that Europe currently has the type of "idealogical" makeup to dominate the world's economic psyche the way America has....rather, we are heading into a period of unprecendented multi-polarity...and even a bankrupt America will have a strong hand in shaping that shared future...the dollar will still be there (perhaps seriously wounded). I fear that those who will loose out the most are the retirees who rely mainly on FED pensions, Medicare, and Soc Sec...my Russian mother in law gets a $20 per month pension....after a life long labor!!!

I once got quite a response here when I stated "only by convention was gold worth more than composted banana peels"...I stand corrected insofar as gold makes beautiful everlasting heirloom jewelry. But as a monetary asset, gold's value is based on convention...as too the dollar's value is based on convention. Gold paper contracts may oneday burn but it will be a much greater battle to pull the international convention built around the dollar into a similar destruction. It is not only a great battle of fiats...it is a great battle of deeply entrenched psychological values, in a modern economy where there are really some "new" aspects that defy the "older ways".

We goldbugs must truely stay on our toes as we skirt the edges of Mirkwood.

Poor old Solomon

lamprey_65 (4/19/2000; 20:39:31MDT - Msg ID:29063)
Addendum
Remember, neither Ft. Knox nor the New York Federal Reserve Gold Vault could survive a direct hit from a nuclear warhead, and the coordinates of both locations are widely known...hmmm, very interesting!

lamprey_65 (4/19/2000; 20:33:47MDT - Msg ID:29062)
A Hidden U.S. Stash of Gold?
I believe the idea of a large stash of gold was discussed previously here with the possibility of the gold having its origins in the Phillipines, if memory serves. There may be another possibility. As you all know, the U.S. government has been selling off its "strategic reserves" of silver and platinum for some years now. I ask all of you, knowing how the U.S. operated in matters concerning surviving a nuclear attack (remember the secret, hidden Congressional facilities in West Virginia?) I would find it very strange if there had NOT been a "strategic reserve" of gold, just as there was of silver and platinum. This reserve would be separate from that held by the Treasury. I also can understand why it would be kept secret...gold is THE most important precious metal.

The following was reposted on Kitco last night...it is originally from the Gold-Eage Forum, posted yesterday. I have no idea if the information contains specific truth or not, but the general idea of the U.S. government maintaining a secret hoard of gold would not surprise me in the least. I would also expect that IF such a hoard existed, THIS administration would have no qualms in selling it. What a great topic for an investigative journalist!

Here's the post:

Gold1500....
( Ben ) Apr 18, 15:13
Everyone has there "conspiracy theories" right? So, here's my two cents on all of that. I tend to lean towards agreeing with the story by Chris Osborne about the US buying all of the GOLD. Let me tell you why....

About five years ago, I was sitting in the airport waiting to pick up my father in law and a friend of his. They had decided to meet each other in Baltimore and spend about two weeks together.

As I was driving home, I was inquiring as to the former occupation of my father in laws friend. He told me he worked for the CIA for over 30 years and had a very high clearance at one time. Now, imagine if you will, a very aged gentlemen with a pretty sharp memory.....but you could tell that he would talk a little too much about things he had seen and participated in and catch himself doing this at certain times. Maybe he was starting to lose his marbles....I don't know. He was very educated. That I do know. He rambled on about weather experiments and satellites and all that. He then touched on GOLD. Being a GOLDbug most of my life, I pressed him on the subject of FT. KNOX and such. He said, "Son, the amount of Gold in Ft. Knox is a speck of dust on the head of a pin compared to the amount that we've got stashed in the Salt Mines in Utah." I was blown away..... I'll never forget it. He said that there is a mountain in Utah somewhere ( I can't remember the name because I was so shocked at the next sentence ) that is filled with more GOLD bullion that is publicly accounted for in any fashion! He said the US gov't has enough to wipe every slate clean in the treasury. They keep it as a hedge against total financial armegeddon and ensure that they can always be a monetary superpower. No matter what.

Take it as you will. Was he BSing me? I don't know.

I won't forget it though....

Fun to imagine...



TownCrier (4/19/2000; 20:24:22MDT - Msg ID:29061)
Sir SteveH and source of exported gold
This was my thinking after providing last month's figures when I responded to Sir ORO's similar request for my speculation on the matter:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
TownCrier (3/23/2000; 21:07:26MDT - Msg ID:27386)

ORO, I'm glad you noticed the startling trade figures I posted two days ago (March 21st, a.m.) focusing on the trend of huge gold exports from the U.S. It surprises me that this didn't raise more eyebrows or comments among our group here. Worth repeating is that any gold that moves into foreign ownership but is maintained in U.S. storage does not get counted among these export figures.

Sorry for the delay in providing my speculation as to the source of this gold. Here it is...

...on an annual export pace of approximately 876 tonnes judging from January's "slackened" export level, compared to our annual production rate of 354 tonnes, you can see that this gold is more than double the amount that our mining companies might be providing in the form of gold loan payments and outright sales channeled through the likes of the LBMA member banks.

What is making up the bulk of the shortfall beyond the first order supply? We can probably take a cue from Michael's own operation at Centennial where he has agents seeking and negotiating for the caches of Old World treasures. As private holders for whatever reason reach a state of mind that they would prefer to exchange their hard assets for national currencies, this gold enters the export stream alongside new production.

With our current equities markets beguiling and captivating masses of sophisticated and unsophisticated investors alike, is it any wonder that tonnes of ounces are trickling out of the woodwork to fill this overseas demand? After all, there is only 32,151 troy ounces in a tonne. Create enough disinterest among individuals to give up their few ounces of near-irreplacible metal for a few hundred dollars of instant cash, and you can see that the difference can be perhaps be satisfied...for a while. At these rates, it won't last long...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Your words of today, SteveH, seem to support this thought. You said, "My friend the coin dealer told me today that premium's are up on Gold and Silver eagles and he felt that all the Y2K dishoarding is now done."

Sir Henri was also a perceptive reader, and picked up on the distinction for the accounting of this exported gold. Some of this gold could have indeed been purchased by foreign interests in past years, and as long as it was maintained in storage here, it wouldn't appear to get counted as an official export until it passed through customs.

Keep in mind that this is altogether different than foreign owned gold that was brought here for temporary safe keeping, and then repatriated. That gold would not show up in these figures because it would have the proper paperwork pedigree for customs such that it would never have been counted as an American asset or good to begin with. We can't count exports that were never offically ours.

Keep in mind that what is tracked here in these specific export figures is "nonmonetary gold"...the stuff that isn't in the banking system as official "monetary gold" reserves.

I may be wrong about this, and perhaps Trail Guide may come to my rescue, but I have the impression that central banks cannot indescriminately (or discriminately) play fast and loose with the purchase of "nonmonetary" gold on the open market in order to bolster their official reserves of monetary gold. This would be cheating, now wouldn't it...for an official player to obtain this special asset at the carefully crafted illusion of the paper price? Please think about that.

That is why you don't see official global holdings of gold increasing by leaps and bounds as the many years wear onward. There is a rather official process for the official "conversion" of nonmonetary gold to become counted among official reserve assets. Instead, the same official "monetary" gold holdings are basically allocated back and forth as conditions warrant. Therefore, we see that most of the newly mined gold goes into private hands, not central banks. But of course, there are easily identified exceptions...mostly among the "less fortunates" that need a break. The Central Bank of Russia, for example, announced for all the world to see last year that it had embarked upon its intentions of buying (approximately 100 tonnes?) from its member banks, who themselves bought it from the local miners. I would tend to say that China's central bank also had a special relationship with it's local gold market. What became of this gold with regard to their official books, perhaps only the BIS can say. I cannot. But as they are now moving to open up their gold market, and with the only BIS branch office now "in town", I would venture the guess that China is either going to start playing by the existing rules for the western CBs with regard to gold, or else the WHOLE system will be changed.

By "changed" I mean that perhaps the distinction between "montary" and "nonmonetary" gold will be dropped officially because there will no longer be a valuation difference between gold carried on the official books, and gold as priced by the illusory open market for those of us on the oustside. Once our "open market" paper system of price discovery collapses we would all then know the true valuation of gold....banker and baker and shoe-shine boy and candlestick-maker all on equal footing under the eyes of the Sun.

pa kua (4/19/2000; 20:20:46MDT - Msg ID:29060)
ORO re #29003

Excellent analysis. I wonder if the the planners, as Greenspan, consider the continued immigration of all levels of workers (not specifically the technologically-trained, as you seem to imply)a key factor in maintaining a strong economy? I have heard they do, but I do not have the figures that would support it. Have you estimates for this?




SteveH (4/19/2000; 19:15:43MDT - Msg ID:29059)
Oro (congrats Peter)
Oro,

Way to go. You did it again. You too Peter and Ari.

ORO,

You are getting much like TG. You speak with authority as a teacher and sage leaving one with the thirst for more. I must ask you as it wasn't clear to me, who are those that have so engineered our system that they could hold back resources in the US for such a period of time under the guise of environmentalist?

Also, it is mighty coincidental that the Second Amendment should come under attack at a time when within eight months (your estimate) all the gold will be gone to fullfill contracts. In other words, what is the societal motivation to disarm Americans whilst the dollar lives its last strong days, headed for weaker ones? Put simply, what is the cause or root of the correlation between gun control and gold control? This is not just a coincidence, is it? Why?

Towncrier,

Just so I make the obvious apparent. Are you saying that the largest export was gold, or the largest growth in exports from the US was gold? Also, what is the source of this gold if it is not official gold? I know ORO thought it was a special stash, but what is your take?

My friend the coin dealer told me today that premium's are up on Gold and Silver eagles and he felt that all the Y2K dishoarding is now done. He also told me that 1996 Silver Eagles were 17.00 per coin. He also pointed out that only two years of silver remain in the strategic reserve and after that the mint will have to buy silver in the open market.



beesting (4/19/2000; 19:14:34MDT - Msg ID:29058)
Sir TownCrier #29050....U.S. export figures on Gold.
Townie, those Gold export figures are astounding when Dec. 1999 and Nov. 1999(105 tonnes) are added together in a four month period.At this rate the U.S. may export 900 to 1000 tonnes in a 12 month period Nov.1999 to Nov.2000, and the U.S. only produces 354 tonnes of Gold annually? I strongly suggest e-mailing the top two financial publications in the U.S. with your full #29050 post.
It is the responsibility of a newspaper to print factual news.

Here is Barrons e-mail address:

http://ads.barrons.com/company

I would add "Please forward to Cheryl Strauss Einhorn Commodities Corner."

Here is The Wall Street Journal e-mail address:

http://wsj.com

You could forward this to "Letters to the Editor department."

Good Luck.....beesting.


R Powell (4/19/2000; 19:14:05MDT - Msg ID:29057)
Lease rates on silver
Up, substantially, as reported on Kitco.

bp1 (4/19/2000; 19:08:30MDT - Msg ID:29056)
To all:
http://www.usagold.com
To all the knowledgeable people here: look at the 24 hour gold price chart, why it always drops at New York, day in, day out?! It does fit into the conspiracy theory. How the people in this forum answer and explain this?

TownCrier (4/19/2000; 18:44:32MDT - Msg ID:29055)
Rounding out the total picture on exports...
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html
I forgot to mention this in the previous post.

To be sure that you see the special significance of gold, you should know that Febrary exports of all other precious metals combined were only $163 million, a huge (percetage-wise) decline of $60 million from the previous month.

Only gold is on their radar screens.

----
BTW, the Hall of Fame has already been updated (since ealier this morning) to include the posts by Sirs Asher and ORO. Our good friend Ari will have to be patient for a while as other tasks currently beckon our attetion here in The Tower.

Au-some (4/19/2000; 18:33:01MDT - Msg ID:29054)
Mr. Gresham Msg. 29029
You write: "I think this forum is, at its core, about learning to uncover and replace false values with real values."
I agree. You have nailed one of the particular qualities that make the USAGold forum attractive.

Trail Guide (4/19/2000; 18:17:48MDT - Msg ID:29053)
Comment
Hello ORO,

My wife will not let me put your post on the main wall! Can You imagine that? I had an unused frame from the local custom picture shop,,,,, nice, big real wood frame. Was thinking of mounting your post in that frame. Then put it on the entry wall of our home where all our guest would have to read it and no doubt comment on it. Now I guess it will just have to stay in my office.

Besides that I didn't really see anything in it that qualified for the HOF? ( bet you think I made this up) (grin)

Thanks to you and to everyone for reaching beyond themselves in the search for and sharing of understanding.

Excelent! ----- ORO (4/19/2000; 0:05:39MDT - Msg ID:29003) ---------

Trail Guide

Henri (4/19/2000; 18:15:02MDT - Msg ID:29052)
TC Gold Exports
Has anyone considered the possibility that this is foreign owned gold that was kept in the US for safekeeping in diversified locations. With the recent turn of events, it is possible that they no longer trust us to keep their gold for them (This would be ominous indeed). The US has a bad habit of appropriating the assets of other nations it doesn't happen to like. Witness Iran/Iraq. Should the US not take kindly to the self-destruction of the US$ and have the press spin the BIS/Euro cadre badly. We just might be too tempted to just appropriate what they left here for safekeeping just to "balance the books". I wouldn't trust us at this point if I were them...would you? Non-monetary gold = gold outside the treasury/fed system = gold that doesn't belong to us.

Hmmm

Gold. Its not just for goldbugs anymore.

Canuck (4/19/2000; 18:14:08MDT - Msg ID:29051)
Brilliant day
Awesome, awesome posts today. You guys are the best!!

Would the real Alan Greenspan please step forward.

Another 'dead cat bounce' Sir Stranger! The transmission in the ol' model A can't hold the 'rev's' anymore. The bulls are trapped!!

Oro is 'da man'! Whoo, what a wicked post this am, rattles the molars for sure. MK with the 'debt servicing' stats, skating on the pond in mid-April is scary business.

Feb. deficit @ 29 billion, would like to see the total debt now, approaching and encroaching $6 trillion perhaps; that's a million million son.

Took the 12 year old son into the bank today, laid another
(I like the word 'another') silver block into the deposit box.

The young lad says, "Why are buying more silver Dad?"

"Just changing dollars into silver son, just changing one currency into another"

" The dollar is going to crash Dad?"

"See this gold and silver currency son (looking into the box), there's going to be a major shift in value soon"

"How do you know that?"

"What did your mother do last week?"

"She sold all of her stock last week."

"Yeah, and so did did everyone else, people are getting nervous about their money, soon people will start to buy hard, tangible things"

"Like gold and silver, Dad!?"

"Like gold and silver son"

TownCrier (4/19/2000; 17:59:41MDT - Msg ID:29050)
Picking apart the U.S. Trade figures relased today for February. You'd better sit down for this...
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/press.html
First a review of last month's commentary where we gave a perspective-building overview of the activity in recent months:
---------
TownCrier (03/21/00; 08:50:39MDT - Msg ID:27209)
...We created quite a stir in January when we revealed that the latest release of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce indicated a rocketing level of gold exports from the U.S., with November's gold exports (that level passing through customs, not including any transfer of ownership that stays within the vaults of the Federal Reserve on behalf of the foreign owner) leaping above October's $400 million export level to top $1 billion. In December, that number settled back to the still impressive level of $783 million, while in January gold exports continued to tip the scales at $730 million.
...
To assist you with your own quick calculations to determine the significance of these levels, gold at current prices is about $10 per gram...with one million grams per tonne you have $10 million per tonne. That gives you 22.5 tonnes exported in January of last year pointing toward a 270 tonne annual pace...but recall that November alone grew by 100 tonnes. Meanwhile in modern times, this January's export of 73 tonnes puts us on an annual pace of 876 tonnes. See a trend? Are you getting your share of gold even as the rest of the world is laying claim to theirs?
------

A simple statement of the overall balance of trade situation for the short month of February is that the Department of Commerce announced total February exports ($84.2 billion) and imports ($113.4 billion) resulted in a new record monthly goods and services deficit of $29.2 billion, $1.8 billion more than the revised deficit figures for January ($27.4 billion).

The breakdown is February exports fell by $0.2 billion, while imports rose by $1.6 billion over January.

Shall we look at the gold numbers for the month to see if the past trend remains intact? Let's do.

While many of our goods export sub-categories suffered a monthly decline, the category which includes gold, "Industrial supplies and materials" lead the other various sub-categories with a $0.3 billion increase.

Within this "Industrial supplies and materials" sub-category, gold topped the list of all others with the largest export increase over the month of January. While January's gold exports were $727 million, February's totals lept up to $921 million for a monthly increase of $194 million in export demand for our gold.

To give this additional perspective, here were the top three export items in this category along with their monthly increase (expressed in millions):

Nonmonetary gold . . . $ 194
Chemicals-organic . . . $ 74
Plastic materials . . . $ 69

NOTE: "Nonmonetary gold" is the official government name for gold outside of the Treasury or Federal Reserve system, so don't let that throw you. Gold is gold.

Once again, using a very approximate calculation of $10 per gram, February's gold exports clibed to 92 tonnes.

Is this a new development, you ask? How does this compare to exactly one year ago?

In the first two months of 1999, our gold exports totaled $448 million (about 45 tonnes; for an annual pace (at the time...it jumped later in the year) of 270 tonnes. As I reported at another time, U.S. gold production in 1999 was 354 tonnes. (These particular export figures are approximately on par with U.S. gold imports for this period last year and this year also.)

Rolling the clock forward to this year, the first two months of gold exports have totaled $1.648 BILLION (approx 165 tonnes; for an annual pace thus far of 990 tonnes for this year.)

Looking at the ENTIRE field of goods exported, there is ONLY ONE specific item that outpaced the year-to-date increase in export demand witnessed for gold.

While the above figures reveal that 2000 year-to-date foreign demand for gold grew by $1.2 billion over 1999 year-to-date values, only the foreign demand of U.S. semiconductors saw more gains in consumption, increasing by $1.515 billion over the same two month period.

However, consider this...the size of these markets.

Last year, the Jan-Feb demand for semiconductors was $6.944 billion, so this year's increase represents an impressive gain in total demand of 22%. That's very nice, and is about what you might expect for this very important and vibarant sector of the rapidly growing technology sector.

Looking at this same growth factor in foreign demand for gold this year compared to the Jan-Feb figures of last year, the increase is a whopping 268 percent!

Gold blows the technology leader right out of the water! What do you think about this "barbarous relic" now?

This trend in gold demand by the rest of the world incontrovertible...there's no need for the jury to retire. In all my years of judging I have never heard before of something more deserving of the full discipline of your attention.

The rest of the world is voraciously laying claim to gold. They are getting theirs. Do you have yours?

Ulysses (4/19/2000; 17:57:45MDT - Msg ID:29049)
ORO-IMF/WorldBank
http://www.usagold.com
ORO,check out website www.tenc.net-the Chossudovsky interview-for a good analysis of the IMF/WorldBank.

SHIFTY (4/19/2000; 17:27:37MDT - Msg ID:29048)
N .Y. PONZI
Todays New York PONZI! NASDAQ 3706.41 + DOW 10674.96= 14381.37 Devide by 2 = PONZI 7190.68 DOWN 89.81

aunuggets (4/19/2000; 16:56:59MDT - Msg ID:29047)
Analyzer
The difference (as I understand it) is between the so-called "lease" (expecting the gold to be returned) and the outright "sale" (never expecting to see it again). CBs can lease back and forth, or even buy and sell back and forth, with little or no "net results" (or physical exchange of metal) as far as the world monetary systems are concerned. But when the private sector becomes involved, it all turns into a giant game of "musical chairs", or who will be the last one caught with their pants down when the music stops. As a simple continuation of the paper gold game, there doesn't necessarily "need" to be any physical delivery of the leased gold unless (as you point out) it does happen to be for fabrication purposes. There are "tons" of precious metals bought, leased, traded, etc. on a constant basis which may never leave the confines of the depositories, whether public or private in nature.

Contrary to what "governments" would like for us all to believe, many see this "worthless gold" charade as nothing more than a ploy for governments to do exactly the OPPOSITE of what they claim to be doing (surprise !), i.e. making the true wealth of this world appear worthless for their own benefits, whether that consists of acquiring more gold for the CBs or simply discrediting it for the sake of keeping the fiat afloat a little longer. After all, fiat currency is much more controllable (and cheaper to produce) than gold could ever be.

Let's suppose for a moment that the world CBs had some diabolical scheme to return the world to a gold standard. Would they do so after selling off their "backing" (i.e. reserve gold holdings), or would they first create a general concensis with the world population that "gold is a worthless, barbaric relic of the past", all the while accumulating as much "backing" as possible and/or creating conditions to bankrupt and nationalize gold mining operations in the process (at as low a price as possible no less) ? Surely governments wouldn't buy at such a low price and then "revalue" at higher levels once they were in the most advantageous position to do so, just so they could create more "economy value" via the printing presses.

With the stroke of a pen, paper currencies could become immediately worthless. Those of us who hold physical gold, on the other hand, have it within our OWN powers to tell the politicians exactly where they can stick that same pen......

Econoclast (4/19/2000; 16:38:24MDT - Msg ID:29046)
Election Year
The big question--
Is the "House of Cards" going to fall next week? Or next year?
I am on the edge of my seat watching the world play out.
What exciting times we live in!

Leigh (4/19/2000; 16:20:03MDT - Msg ID:29045)
Richard640
Welcome Richard! I am an admirer of your Gold-Eagle posts and am thrilled that you are posting here also. Do you ever sleep, or do you just post all day and night?

Everyone, I'm in AWE of the wonderful, eloquent writings here yesterday and today. Christopher, your beautiful message yesterday brought tears to my eyes.

Richard640 (4/19/2000; 16:15:18MDT - Msg ID:29044)
"Proof" that a crash and a recession/depression can not be avoided in the U.S.
by the P.P.T./E.S.F, the Fed and/or the Treasury or it's Wall St. surrogates-- Goldman, Morgan-Stanley etc. etc. Michael Murphy said on his weekend hotline that investors should buy tech stocks on Monday because the P.P.T. would come in and support the Mkt., especially during an election year. He was right, so far. He, and his ilk will continue to be right as long as the virtuous circle is alive and well for stocks and the U.S. economy-When the virtuous circle ends and the wolf really arrives at the door, then all of these entities will be powerless to stop the disintegration. After such a long and persistent bull run, even the most die-hard bulls throw in the towel--but in case you doubt the previously mentioned "support team" will fail, I offer you a simple "proof". Namely, Japan--When I was in Tokyo, in 1989, I talked to all the top people in finance--they all said "we all cross the street together". meaning none of us would break ranks and sell. All of them could see no real end to the bull run. At that time Japanese banks were the largest and most influential banks in the world--They openly and admittedly cross-held each other's shares. The government was actively and openly behind the stock market in support--but when Granpa bear finally arrived, with his big ole darning needle, to pop the bubble, all the banks and all the government's men couldn't put Humpty together again--in retrospect, it seems impossible that such gigantic private and sovereign entities couldn't help arrest the catastrophe. Japan endured a 10 year bear mkt.. Japanese investors have sat on $10 trillion for a decade-that's certainly enuff fuel to start a rip-roarin bull mkt., isn't it? When investor psychology is broken and a bubble has burst, it takes a long time to repair the damage--and this happened to the Japanese, merely one of the most intelligent and industrious people in the world--we're not taling about Upper-Volta--so , boys and girls, it CAN and WILL happen here.David Tice has nicely chronicled all the excesses for us--we all know the bear case--It will happen and quite soon my intuition tells me--The fact that Asia & Europe have been non-plussed by our 2 day bounce is ominous. When real fear and terror grips U.S. investors, I believe that the iron grip on gold will be relinquished too and we may be treated to some limit up days.

aunuggets (4/19/2000; 16:15:14MDT - Msg ID:29043)
Richard640
Good point re: Inktomi. However, their "total" market cap is at only 12.61B which makes "the numbers" look even worse. Such a rise for such minuscule earnings is "rewarding" no one but the individual investor holding the stock (back to the greater fool "Ponzi" theory). Once those stocks are "in the system" (shares outstanding), neither the "true" market cap nor the company immediately benefit from the rise, other than of course the "real profits" that remain within the company (if there actually ARE any).

Manfred Mann's Earth Band (70s rendition) "Blinded By The Light" should be dedicated to the Wall Street crowd on a regular basis by every radio station in the nation (grin).

R Powell (4/19/2000; 16:10:35MDT - Msg ID:29042)
Book in the future ??
Mr. ORO, I remember people mentioning an upcoming book that you are working on but it was long ago and I don't know if it was a suggestion aimed your way or someone asking as to the progress of a book in progress. Can we look forward to a book's birthing? Also, if so, can you recommend a title I can read now that will supply background (necessary) information/knowledge that will allow greater comprehension of and less difficulty in understanding your coming work? TIA RPowell


Analyzer (4/19/2000; 16:03:11MDT - Msg ID:29041)
Leased Gold (@aunuggets)
The recent release of the data from the Swiss CB that specified that they had leased a bunch more gold (600 tonnes up from 400? I don't have the numbers in front of me but I believe I read it in a recent market report) certainly reveals that at least some of the Euro CB's were leasing increasing amounts of gold before the Washington agreement. I have seen several people reply that they probably leased the gold out but then somehow retained physical possession of it, which you seem to imply in your post. I would like you or someone else to explain to me why anyone would lease gold if they did not take physical delivery of it. The whole point behind leasing gold is to sell it immediately upon leasing it, and then use the money to invest in some instrument (usually T-bills) that pays a greater return than the lease rate. My understanding is that it would be sold perhaps to some commercial user who might turn it into jewelery or whatever, thus leaving the market 'short' some gold. Why would you pay the person who leased the gold for it if he didn't give it to you?

Harley Davidson (4/19/2000; 15:49:24MDT - Msg ID:29040)
Elwood, Aristotle...thanks guys.
Regarding "poor bastards" and "village idiots"...yet another demonstration of the mastery of eloquent articulation.

Oro, after reading your Message ID 29003, I think you should forget the book...consider a movie or at least a mini-series!

JCTex (4/19/2000; 15:46:34MDT - Msg ID:29039)
ORO
I have been more out than in, lately, so if I am asking a question that is redundant, I apologize, now.

The Swiss gold sale bugs the hell out of me. Those Swiss bankers are a lot of things, but stupid is not one of them. There is no way that they are selling their gold for $280; so, are they going to get an "unknown exchange rate" price for their gold through the BIS?? And/or if they get a pocket full of Euros [the next world currency?]at "unknown exchange rate" prices, where have they hurt themselves???

It appears to this old country boy that they are dumb like foxes.


Richard640 (4/19/2000; 15:45:51MDT - Msg ID:29038)
How does a penny get to be worht $500 million
Inktomi booked it's first profit of one cent--lots of companies "make their numbers" by one cent--even IBM sometimes. We all know about the 1990s accounting methods employed to get the nag to win by a nose.So there's no need to go into all that.--I haven't done the math, but Inktomi's penny of profit could well have been rewarded by "investors" with a boost in market cap of $500 mill. with today's action. Tomorrow we may need to post how does "$500 million become s penny in 24 hours".

aunuggets (4/19/2000; 15:40:38MDT - Msg ID:29037)
R Powell
I think there are more than a few of us who have refused to believe that little (if any) CB gold was making it's way into the open market. If the world CBs are in cahoots with one another for the simple objective of running down the price of gold under the guise of "dumping" their official reserves, there are really only a couple of reasons for their doing so..... 1) To keep the fiat game rolling right along, and 2) To "trade" as much of that fiat as possible for physical gold before the game is exposed.

If the full truth be known, all of these "gold opponents" are probably buying alot more physical than they claim to be "selling"......

Thanks for the link......good info !

aunuggets (4/19/2000; 15:28:38MDT - Msg ID:29036)
(No Subject)
A perfect example of stock market insanity !
Noticed this particular stock mentioned in today's earnings reports, and thought it would make a good subject example of the complete stock market insanity running amuck on Wall Street of late.

The stock is INKT, or Inktomi, a NASDAQ listed company that for the FIRST TIME registered a profit of a whopping 1 cent per share in the first quarter 2000. It had previously NEVER shown a per-share profit since going public, yet street analysists expected it to come in at a 2 cents per share loss for 1Q-2000. Instead, it "surprised" everyone (gasp) by showing an actual profit of 1 cent per share !!! This caused the price per share to jump $17.13 for the day to $133.13 (although it's 52 week high was at $241.50). On an annualized profit basis (if it holds), this gives this stock a current P/E ratio of 3328.25 to 1 ..........

And gold is a "bad investment" ???!!!

Sheeeesh !

R Powell (4/19/2000; 15:09:33MDT - Msg ID:29035)
Mr. oldgold Re. cheap leased gold
I try to understand markets from a supply/demand point of view. I agree with you- (28963)"The supply of cheap leased gold must be cut if a genuine and sustained gold bull is to develop." Mr. Howe has an editorial on the gold-eagle site wherein he speaks of the coming Euro Area sales and the Swiss sales. He proposes that they may be selling to one another to balance their books. He states, "The essence of the plan would be to allow the leased gold on the balance sheets of the EA central banks to be replaced by gold purchases from the Swiss, and leased gold on the SNB's balance sheets to be replaced by gold purchased from the Dutch and Austrians." It's a seven page editorial and can be found at www.gold-eagle.com , then click on editorials. Sorry, I'm can't seem to get the direct link correctly to post. Also, haven't yet read todays posts, someone may have already mentioned this. Let us know what you make of Mr. Howe's idea. Basically he thinks very little if any gold from the upcoming sales will reach the open market.

Buena Fe (4/19/2000; 13:38:39MDT - Msg ID:29034)
Today
-Possible double top in US$ index
-CRB (oil) picking up steam
-Swiss sale freeing up BIS/Euro to be overtly pro gold (explanation compliments of Reg Howe)

feels like sunshine in the forcast starting next week!
gold is precious!

PH in LA (4/19/2000; 12:13:09MDT - Msg ID:29033)
Silver Pledge Advertising
http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/MSFTbuttons.htm
Sharefin claims that the silver pledge has surpassed 100,000 ounces. Go silver!

Latest advertising graphic can be seen at link above.

Enjoy!

Gandalf the White (4/19/2000; 12:12:35MDT - Msg ID:29032)
oops
Who are the Hoobits ?
<;-)
(darn fingers)

Gandalf the White (4/19/2000; 12:10:36MDT - Msg ID:29031)
< ; - )>> Ari and ORO !!!
The Hoobits also second the nomination of Ari's msg #29008 for inclusion into the hall of fame.
Looks as if TC is going to be busy as that is two more HoF inserts today !
FANTASTIC # 29003 there ORO ! More thinking required. Tks.
<;-)



Christopher (4/19/2000; 11:54:07MDT - Msg ID:29030)
Aristotle msg#29008
I will second the nomination for #29008

Mr Gresham (4/19/2000; 11:45:38MDT - Msg ID:29029)
Values
Primus & Aristotle & others are pointing us toward sharing our thoughts about life and our values in it.

Now, during gold's days of combat with a complex system of fiat "values", we are understandably concerned with understanding those mechanisms, and watching gold's price in those terms.

If, someday, gold surges limit up for many days, multiplies in dollar terms, and moves us all up the economic survival ladder a few notches, what are we going to say day after day after day? "Whoopee! Gold up another #__xxx___?" That might seem fairly crass, and even boring, after awhile.

I think this forum is, at its core, about learning to uncover and replace false values with real values. (I resisted capitalizing "false" and "real" -- I've been "shouting" too much lately.)

When we discuss our values in life, as made more possible to live by our recognition of the true monetary value embodied in gold, we share the essence of what we came here to do.

At that time, I believe a new level of maturation will overtake us a practiced and mutually trusting group, and we will handle that discussion with the same civility, curiosity, and intelligence that we have shown to date.



RossL (4/19/2000; 10:57:17MDT - Msg ID:29028)
Peter Asher

I will second your nomination for Aristotle's msg # 29008.


Peter Asher (4/19/2000; 10:21:23MDT - Msg ID:29027)
The third second for
ORO (4/19/2000; 0:05:39MDT - Msg ID:29003)

AND a nomination for Aristotle (4/19/2000; 2:57:30MDT - Msg ID:29008)

A great "Position Paper" for The what and why of the Forum "Home Subject".

Primus (4/19/2000; 9:42:12MDT - Msg ID:29026)
@ Aristotle
The TV is black this shinning new day as I set here reflecting on your words of wisdom. If only you knew how much I wished you could be here to share my nightly walks. I perceive you to be that "fatherly" figure I have missed in life. Thinking about your words, your manner of expression, my mind pictures Solomon of the Bible, a man I have spent hours contemplating.

My treasure in life is not Gold or Silver or the lack of pocket change to do things I wish to do. I have enough of all three. My value in life is life. All the Gold and Silver in the world can not replace one night I spend walking around my humble little ranch, with my ever present dog, watching nature in its fullest. The enjoyment of a new leaf on the tree, or the bud of a new flower that I planted in the ground with my own hands. In simple reality, I want for nothing, save a special lady to share my enjoyment. In this misguide age of greed, self-centeredness, and self, I find the latter the hardest treasure to find.

The DOW, NASDAQ, and POG, I can not influence. The frustration I at times feel in a weak moment, I can influence, when I count my "true" blessings.

Primus


USAGOLD (4/19/2000; 9:37:29MDT - Msg ID:29025)
Note:
Note: I will not be posting a commentary for the next four or five business days due to other
committments demanding my attention. I will probably post again next Wednesday --4/26/00.
Thank you. I will leave the following report up for that period of time because I feel it deals with
some crucial issues of importance to investors over the medium to long term, and I think new
visitors will find a good starting point for their own considerations.

Mr Gresham (4/19/2000; 9:24:04MDT - Msg ID:29024)
JCTex (4/19/2000; 8:43:57MDT - Msg ID:29021)
"I would also suggest that a separate page be designated to/for ALL of ORO's work. His work, like FOA's, is something that I am always looking for and often need to refer back to."

Second that suggestion! I've fallen 2 months behind on editing out and maintaining my own ORO documents. One main thing I'm realizing about them is that they require second and maybe third readings, and reading in conjunction with one another, once my mind is limbered up (at least partway) to the level they call for. If others find this also to be true for themselves, then a separate ORO page would serve us all well.

Now, for a sneaky worktime peak at that juicy #29003.




USAGOLD (4/19/2000; 9:22:20MDT - Msg ID:29023)
Today's Report: An Ode to Government Finance, or Why the Balanced Budget Can Never Quite Get in Balance
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
4/19/00 Indications
 Current
 Change
Gold June Comex
282.40
-.600
Silver May Comex
5.14
nc
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
97~12
+0~09
Dollar Index June NYBOT
106.68
+0.25

Market Report (4/19/00): Not much happening this morning save the U.S. trade deficit
coming in at another record -- $29.2 billion reflecting for the most part rising oil prices, which will
likely translate to higher prices on just about everything, which will induce Alan Greenspan to stay
the course on raising interest rates, which will pressure in turn the government deficit. Wall Street
can hardly suppress the yawn in the face of all this "tough reality" chugging ever onward -- "I
think I can.....I think I can..."(said The Little Engine That Could).

Along these lines, I received the Treasury Department's quarterly Bulletin last week and note that
the U.S. government for fiscal year 1999 took in $288.8 billion in revenues mostly from
individual income taxes. It paid out $118.3 billion in interest on the national debt of some $5.8
tillion. That amounts to 41% of the money collected went right back out the door to our nation's
creditors -- the largest being Carribean banking centers who hold about $500 billion in our paper,
according to the same report. To put it another way 41¢ of every tax dollar you send to the
government goes to pay interest on the national debt. It is the single largest budget item -- larger
than Defense ( second at $72.3 billion), larger than Human Services (third at $61.8 billion), larger
than Life.

Have you wondered why Alan Greenspan prefers the drip method of raising interest rates? It's
because he doesn't really want to raise interest rates any further than he has to cool off this red hot,
fully employed, equity rich, give-it-to-me-its-mine economy. If the Fed were to raise interest rates
a full point from here, it would add roughly another $58 billion to the interest figure. Then 61¢ of
every dollar you paid in taxes would go to pay interest on the national debt and the nation would
be technically bankrupt -- or at least close to being technically bankrupt. (I don't even want to get
into what would happen if we went into a recession and revenues plummetted.)

So the circle goes round and round, as someone once said. Sitting back and reflecting on this
scenario gives rise to a number of questions, not the least of which remains: "Is there anyway out
of this mess short of an economic collapse?" Washington's response to the budget mess is to try to
pretend it's not there and beyond that try to make the people believe that its no longer there -- that
magically somehow without even the slightest austerity measure things suddenly and inexplicably
fell into balance (a fantasy if not an outright lie).

In the same report it is posted that the government added another $69.597 billion to the national
debt in fiscal '99 -- not a record deficit by any means but far from the balanced budget both
political parties like to trumpet before the TV cameras. This deficit was made up by borrowing
from the Social Security Trust Fund and calling it an "off-budget" receipt. The best (only?) option
at this juncture might be to inflate our debt away. And that may be where we're headed seemingly
by some inexplicable force of nature. If you want a good reason to own gold, browse the just
released Treasury Bulletin, 2000 available through the Treasury Department. I've been thinking
about asking if they would let Centennial Precious Metals run an advertisement in it.

That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.

The May News & Views is at the printer and will be out shortly. We think you are going to like
this issue written during the weekend after the April 14 Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click link above and make the appropriate entries.

JA (4/19/2000; 9:06:36MDT - Msg ID:29022)
Aristotle
If I am not mistaken I believe nominations require several seconds. As such I too will second your nomination of ORO's msg #29003 for inclusion into the hall of fame.

Oro

So much of what you write rings true to things I have read in recent years. I greatly appreciate the time you take to share your research with us.


JCTex (4/19/2000; 8:43:57MDT - Msg ID:29021)
Aristotle (4/19/2000; 3:20:17MDT - Msg ID:29009)
Second the motion
If one is still needed, I second the motion for ORO's msg.#29003 nomination into the Hall of Fame.

I would also suggest that a separate page be designated to/for ALL of ORO's work. His work, like FOA's, is something that I am always looking for and often need to refer back to.

TC, I hope such an idea is not out of bounds or too much work. I know you are as busy as one-legged-man in an ass kicking contest, but it would sure be nice.

VanRip (4/19/2000; 8:17:23MDT - Msg ID:29020)
Harmony and Gold on the Web
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/000419/harmony_go_2.html
Morning all. And what should one think of this? I wonder how Harmony will price the gold. Will they use spot?

Harmony to Sell Its Branded Gold on the Web

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, April 19 /PRNewswire/ --
Harmony, the only producer that refines and sells its own branded gold, today announced that it would be making its unique 10-tola bar available for sale on the internet at www.harmony.co.za.

Chief executive Bernard Swanepoel said the company has been successful in distributing its branded products to the Indian market. The initial product will be its 10-tola bar, which will satisfy demand from the company's
European and North American shareholders and investment markets. The range will be expanded to include other products in the near future.

``Unfortunately, neither our South African shareholders, nor the investing public, will be able to participate in this exciting venture, as South African law still classifies our 10-tola bar as unwrought precious metal. We do not agree
with this and aim to pursue this matter with the South African Reserve Bank. It is surely time that South Africans are allowed to hold physical gold for investment purposes'', Swanepoel said.


ThaiGold (4/19/2000; 8:06:42MDT - Msg ID:29019)
StockMarkets Going South
http://www.pitnews.com/daily_charts.htm
====================================
...
4-19-2000
10 AM EST

The link shows all the major US StockMarkets
are headed downwards.
Except AMEX, which is heavily laden with
the GoldShares. It's headed up.
So is the GoldChart, and the OilChart.
Take a look...
http://www.pitnews.com/daily_charts.htm
And golly-gee-whiz... I just checked the XAU.
It's up too.
Looks like another BadDay for us GoldBugs, for sure.
Drat.!.

ThaiGold
================================================


Cavan Man (4/19/2000; 8:06:31MDT - Msg ID:29018)
US February Trade Deficit
$29.2 Billion

elevator guy (4/19/2000; 8:01:50MDT - Msg ID:29017)
Golds' near future
TPTB have a vested interest in keeping TPOG low, to protect those comrades and themselves in the short position, and to "shore up" the US dollar in terms of its numerical value relative to gold, and hence bolster world wide perception of its intrinsic value. (Hee-hee, thats funny)

What could make them lose control? We are not talking about some little renegade group working out of a cave- No, this is the very financial infrastructure of the Western world.

Do any of our more enlightened minds on this Forum have any idea what could upset this game?

I had heard a massive derivative blow-up could do it.

Or maybe it will self-destruct due to its own poor design, because theft is not sustainable.

Anyone?

P.S. Please excuse me if this has been explained before. My time is extremely limited, so I dont get to take a break on leisurely Saturdays and catch up on the posts, as I used to do.

ThaiGold (4/19/2000; 7:51:01MDT - Msg ID:29016)
Anonymous Posters
RE: Canuck (4/19/2000; 4:59:30MDT - Msg ID:29011)
======================================================
...
4-19-2000
To: Canuck
...In your post #29011, you said:
"Have you ever looked past the posts to the characters?"
... And then you said:
"So I ask, who is Alan Greenspan?"

...Okay. I didn't think you'd catch-on to me so quickly.
I must admit though, it was exhuberant fun while it lasted.

... Now that you have blown my cover, I shall henceforth
refrain from giving you such straight answers and clearcut
unequivicably obvious inside information.

... And bye the way: I did *NOT* have sex with that woman,
Monica Shovinski.!.

ThaiGold
==========================================================


RS (4/19/2000; 7:31:54MDT - Msg ID:29015)
Hi-Hat "Culture of Contemp"
Very well stated, sir!




Cavan Man (4/19/2000; 6:57:55MDT - Msg ID:29014)
ORO 29003
Thanks for the excellent summation.

I simply do not know what to make of what you have written.

Black Blade (4/19/2000; 5:53:47MDT - Msg ID:29013)
Morning Wakeup Call.
Source: Bridge News
GOLD MEET: Consultant: Gold at $289 in 2000 in 'probability scenario'

Palm Springs, Calif.--Apr 18--The gold price will average $289 per ounce this year and $309 in 2001 in a "probability weighted price scenario," said Martin Murenbeeld, gold market consultant at M.Murenbeeld & Associates Inc. Speaking at the Gold and Silver Institute annual conference here, he said that a 'Gold Bug' scenario puts gold at $315 in 2000 and $360 in 2001, while the low price scenario puts it at an average of $260 in 2000 and $252 in 2001. (Story .20899)

Black Blade: Definitely like the Goldbug scenario better ;-)

GOLD MEET:Mines should consider mega merger: World Gold editor

Palm Springs, Calif.--Apr 18--In order to get themselves onto investors' radar screens, gold mining companies should consider a mega merger, such as an AngloGold-Barrick-Newmont-Placer linkup, said gold commentator Paul Burton, editor of World Gold. This would create a company with a critical mass and possibly entice investors away from dot-com companies, he said, speaking at the Gold and Silver Institute annual meeting here. (Story .19174)

Black Blade: I don't know, there's some bad blood between some of these guys. It would be interesting though. Could ignite additional interest in Au investment.

Stillwater has 22,000 oz '01 palladium hedged at avg $672/oz

New York--Apr 18--Stillwater Mining said Monday that as of Mar 31 it had forward contract positions of 22,000 hedged at an average price of $672 per ounce for 2001 and another 2,000 ounces hedged at the same levels for 2002. The company had forward contract positions on 14,000 ounces of platinum for delivery in 2000 at an average price per ounce of $404 per ounce. (Story .18059)

Black Blade: There were questions posted concerning SWC hedge positions. I believe that these are floor price hedges and are open to the upside potential.

NYMEX lists additional gold options strike price

New York--Apr 18--The New York Mercantile Exchange said it listed an additional gold options strike price of $440 Monday on the Dec 2001 contract. The recommendation to list this strike price came from the Exchange's floor committee, as it would not have been listed under the regular parameters of the Exchange's gold options contract. (Story .23930)

Black Blade: Now why would they do that? Hmmmmm……………. Possibly bullish, or maybe they detect a demand?



HI - HAT (4/19/2000; 5:05:34MDT - Msg ID:29012)
Culture Of Contempt
A further point on collectivists and statists is that at heart they are haters of Man. They hate and revile mankind and hate themselves. This philosophical view is why they promuligate a paper fiat wealth medium. It is a mirror and tool they can hold up to mankind and themselves to speak debasement and immorality.

Mankind must have a standard that preserves the fruits of his noble works. Work is Noble. The clean,purified gold'solidifies in his hands the inherent "good", of his stivings. The good wealth.

This is what this whole battle is about. The flawed,hateful philosophy of something for nothing, or a standard of wealth that honors and esteems honest work. Honors Man. Esteems.

Canuck (4/19/2000; 4:59:30MDT - Msg ID:29011)
To any and all
From John Doe,

Have you ever looked past the posts to the characters?
-----------------------------------

"First, I'm sure you can appreciate why those of us with abosolute, pinpoint, foreknowledge could never possibly be permitted to share such information about the bear/bull transformation date and time of day on a public forum. <ear-to-ear grin> Here's a hint though--you already missed the turn. (It was cleverly hiding behind BoE sales.)"
---------------------------------------------

About half a year ago FOA was accused to be the director of the WGC. (I won't attempt to spell HER name) The accusation was quickly dismissed. Who is who on this forum? What a perfect way to lay out a statement than via a anonymous, electronic, publicly accessed medium. The 'inside' information can be laid out quite transparently, both from a negative and positive agenda.

So I ask, who is Alan Greenspan?



RossL (4/19/2000; 4:40:46MDT - Msg ID:29010)
Sir Aristotle

I second your nomination of ORO's msg #29003 for inclusion into the hall of fame.


Aristotle (4/19/2000; 3:20:17MDT - Msg ID:29009)
Exceptional effort, ORO
My last waking effort of the evening is to make the motion that this work of yours be captured in the Hall of Fame for subsequent referral to others. I go to sleep in full confidence that it will be duly seconded and qualified upon the hour of my eventual waking.

Thanks for your personal effort to make the world a better place. I mean that in all sincerity.

Gold. Found me some. ---Aristotle

Aristotle (4/19/2000; 2:57:30MDT - Msg ID:29008)
Gold Ownership--its all about achieving a proper understanding of Wealth Hierarchy
oldgold, I've got to hand it to you--you sure managed to trigger a day's worth of posts on the forum that strike this reader as among its best ever. Thanks for sharing your somewhat abrasive personal assessments of the merits of Gold investments as a challenge to many here to come to terms with their own thoughts on the subject. It looks to me like many liked what they found when they looked inward...and not surprisingly, they were to a man ALL physical Gold owners (in addition to whatever other wide and varied facets of social and investment endeavors they may have.)

From your latest post on European CBs and Gold, you said:
"I still finds the idea that the European CBs will ever do anything significant to help gold and hurt the dollar fanciful to say the least. Not only do they continue to trash gold in a major way (albeit now within certain limits) but they continue to accumulate US dollars at a rapid pace."

Isn't more accurate that it is your assessment that might be what is fanciful? If not, what is your supporting evidence to the above claims? If I may, please let me offer two bits of readily obtainable information as a counter to your claims.

Standing against your first claim that European Central Banks won't "ever do anything significant to help gold" and that "they continue to trash gold in a major way," I offer this very public and very significant historical act--the Washington Agreement, now barely half a year old:

Mr. Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, announced the joint Statement on Gold: "In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the [fifteen European] institutions make the following statement:
1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves." ...etc...

Standing against your second claim that European Central Banks won't ever do anything significant to "hurt the dollar" and that "they continue to accumulate US dollars at a rapid pace," I offer a simple acknowledgement of the successful launch of the euro currency to counter the first half. Against the second half of this claim I offer these two news briefs on the latest release of the ECB's weekly balance sheet:

--ECB total gold assets unchanged at 115.677 bln euros Apr 14
["My, Granny, what large Gold you have," said little Red Riding Hood.]

--ECB: Net FX assets dn 1 bln euros to 264 bln on Apr 14
["My Granny, what a large drop in foreign exchange reserves you have. Where is the accumulation of dollars at a rapid pace?" asked little Red Riding Hood.]

But, oldgold, you reached your thought-stimulating best when you offered these remarks at the end of the day:
"The comment by one poster today that people should be here only to find out how the world works and not to get rich quick again shows a kind of arrogance and disdain for the financial interests of gold investors that has long been a problem at this site. I for one am not here to get rich quick but to help ascertain when the gold bear might turn into a gold bull. If this site cannot help people in this regard it will be on its way out."

First, I'm sure you can appreciate why those of us with abosolute, pinpoint, foreknowledge could never possibly be permitted to share such information about the bear/bull transformation date and time of day on a public forum. <ear-to-ear grin> Here's a hint though--you already missed the turn. (It was cleverly hiding behind BoE sales.)

Regarding the issue of either figuring out how the world works or getting rich, I would suggest that the latter naturally follows the former. It can't be any other way short of heavy reliance on blind luck.

We are Gold owners, accumulators, and advocates because we have in fact discovered the ways of the world. It's all about understanding the Wealth Hierarchy.

Simply put, the world works like this: We all have needs to sustain our life, and we therefore all must endeavor from cradle to grave in the satisfaction of life's requirements. Wealth, you see, is anything that can be utilized in meeting our needs to sustain our lives.

Wisdom and experience show that some wealth assets are more reliable and universal. Some are so reliable, and so universal we actually give very little thought to counting them amoung our assets. Take oxygen. Most of us as we walk down the street give this nary a thought. We are oxygen rich! If you don't believe me, just think of what you'd say upon hearing of a scuba diver who ran out of air while exploring some underwater cave. "Poor bastard." At least, that's what I'd surely say.

So, unless we anticipate scuba diving, very few of us take any effort to mindfully or aggressively gather for later use the real wealth of oxygen. And to any primative, or a resurrected ancient, who had no concept of scuba diving, we would surely look like the perfect fool bottling air in preparation for the event.

To keep this short, let me come to the point. We have basic material needs of food, clothing, and shelter. Access to energy could be also be included in the list. To have more than you need for satisfying the immediate demands for survival is to be wealthy. To come up short in the ability to satisfy any one vital need quickly reveals you to be another "poor bastard" in the eyes of the impartial gravediggers.

Fotunately, from the earliest times of our ancestors we have discovered that we don't all need to be meticulous wealth planners like the modern scuba diver, Mt. Everest climbers, or astronauts taking a ride to the moon. We can generally blunder our way through day to day and year to year in the comfortable fact of life that through the open market--through the ability to trade with others--we can generally obtain what we materially need in one facet by exchange for some of our wealth in another facet. Food for clothing seems like a pretty reasonable medieval exchange, doesn't it?

We all know the inefficiencies of barter, don't we. As civilization and trade evolved from the dawn of man to the 20th century, Gold revealed itself to be the single most reliable, universal agent that could be traded in various quantities for anything anywhere on Earth. Maybe most remarkable in this is that Gold is not itself something that is needed or consumed in satisfaction of our basic material needs for survival. But due to it being perfectly and uniquely suited for this universal role in trade for any other person's available wealth as necessary to meet your own specific needs, Gold has become such a near proxy for the real wealth we require for life that many of us have permitted ourselves the casual inclusion of Gold into our otherwise strict definition of wealth.

Those in the industry have come to call this universal wealth asset (Gold) by the name "money," but that unnecessarily confuses the issue. In their efforts to facilitate various objectives in modern life, those in the financial industry endeavored to master the alchemist's craft--to methodically create "money" from such substances as worthless base metals or from paper. Even the village idiot can clearly see that "the bankers and others" didn't succeed in creating Gold. But the village idiots were never so sure that these nickel coins and paper notes weren't in fact successfully turned into this other "thing" that the experts called "money." As for me, I'm comfortable calling these creations by the name "currency," and further, I recognize that they can and do serve a useful purpose in modern society. With this distinction I am not so easily baffled as the village idiots into thinking that these currencies created in the image of "money" can actually attain the superior wealth function of the asset they sought to imitate--that being Gold. And you shouldn't be fooled either.

Every currency made in imitation of Gold goes hand in hand with the financial architecture that supports it right into the trashbin of failed efforts, and are logged into the collective wisdom of those who vow not to be fooled again. Based on the conception, care, and feeding of the various currencis and their supporting architectures, the lifespan, or timeline of predictable rise and fall milestones may vary in length from one currency to another. They may serve a purpose while they last, but they all suffer the same eventual demise at the hands of inflation. Remember, these currencies are man's artificial attempt, time and time again, to imitate Gold for use in modern commerce. They are built for speed--built to be borrowed specifically, and spent rapidly! They are not suitable for saving. For that you must turn to the master--the near-wealth proxy upon which all currencies must bow down in inferior imitation.

So you see, learning how the world works is all about each man coming to the understanding about the real wealth we all require to best ensure our survival. Knowing that Gold is the master proxy for our life's day to day and year to year shifting requirements for food, clothing, shelter, and energy, it simply makes more sense to gather in Gold for later use than to gather in clothes that we may outgrow, food that may spoil, houses that are more than our needs, aor energy that we can't store. You see, time bears witness to this undeniable fact: Gold can be called wealth because it is an enduring wealth proxy in exchange for our life's needs. Currency, on the other hand, serves a specific modern economic purpose--to be borrowed and inflated in placation of man's immediate desires. It is not wealth, it fails as a proxy for the Gold it tries to immitate. Do not confuse the two.

Understanding how the world works is easy as soon as you understand the Wealth Hierarchy. Like this:Earn money (currency), buy what you need, save Gold, enjoy what life has to offer.

Real wealth. Get you some. ---Aristotle


ThaiGold (4/19/2000; 2:29:49MDT - Msg ID:29007)
Gold: Die For It.?.
RePost, at the Request of: Myself.!.
=================================================
...
4-19-2000
To: All
Because the Forum is so quiet tonight, and I must
stay awake all night to rebuild a crashed harddisk.
...
ThaiGold (7/13/99; 21:38:46MDT - Msg ID:8828)
[First Post] GOLD: Die for it.?.
========================================================
It's often said that in the past, historically, "men
died for Gold". And they did. Often large quantities
of it. We all know that. An ancient era of the past.

But are we aware of men who even today, as I write,
as you read, at this instant, are about to Die for
Gold, indeed, as little as a single ounce of Gold.?.

Thailand is a neat place. Exotic..Erotic..Exciting.
Someday I wanna live there. When my GoldStocks go up.

I love the Thai people. Beautiful/Friendly/Sincere.
Especially their unique males.. The KickBoxers.

"Muai Thai" is their national sport: Thai KickBoxing.
It can be a deadly sport. Or very injurious. Risky.
Virtually every night, matches are held in the arena
at Bangkok. Even televised. Often sold as VCR tapes.

Western culture thinks of Boxers as Big/Burly/Black,
overBearing/Blustery/Bruised, but seldom Benevolent.

Thai KickBoxers seem quite the opposite, to me:
Such handsome delicate features; shy; quiet; polite;
smiling; humble; compassionate; diminuative frames:
all these traits belie their legendary lethality.

Thai boys practice it from the earliest age. Hone
their bodies. The bare feet, shins, knees, of the
adult have the speed/mass/energy of a solid oak
baseball bat. At 50 MPH. Watchout. Landed kicks can
splinter bones/necks/ribs/skulls. In an instant.

Typically, a match begins as the two young boxers
(late teens/early 20's)--(if they live that long)
enter the ring. Somber. But never arrogant. The
band begins playing the rythmic background pace:

That music, unique in all the world, soon causes
the hairs to stand upon the back of your neck, as
you sense the impending magnitude/risk of a battle
soon to occur before your very eyes.

Some spectators will feel sadness, guilt, even
apprehension in their gut, for having come to see.
Similar to the first-time-seen carnage of an actual
BullFight in Spain or Mexico. Only this seems alot
different somehow: These are people. Nice people.

Boxers go through a pre-bell ritual: A gracefull
and reverent prayer/dance where they bow and pray
to the four wind directions. "Wais". Each knows in
his heart, that, having just stepped into the ring,
he may not leave it, whole, nor indeed, even alive.

The rounds begin: They will pummel each other as
best they can between each bell. Until one can
fight-no-more. The victor is not ecstatic. He bows
his head, and merely allows the referee to raise
his arm to the watching crowd. Then he quickly
climbs out of the ring, seeking to assist in aid
and comfort to his opponent. Holding, touching,
sincerely caring as they exit together, from the
arena floor to the lockers/emergency medical room.

Often on a stretcher. He will walk/touch beside it
deeply concerned for the recovery of his vanquished
companion. There will be no TV interview. Nothing
to brag about nor ballyhoo to the fans and media.
Just a quiet, somber, elegant exit from the arena.

Within minutes the next pair of handsome young Thai
gladiators enter the ring... to begin their Wais,
ritual prayer-dance. Thus, into the arena's night.

Next day -payday- he will quickly convert his fiat
paper winnings (Baht currency) into Gold: ThaiGold.
A pure 24-karet, no-nonsense, simple rounded-link
gold chain. It will be about 18-inches in length,
and weigh two or three ounces. Loser: maybe a 1 oz.

Worn discretely around his neck, for a few mere
hours or days, as he quietly bicycles or walks or
hitchhikes to the remote village wherein lives his
parents, brothers, sisters and whence he only
recently had lived, himself. Upon arrival, he will
be greeted tearfully. He gives his ThaiGold to them:

That they may have sustanence to purchase their
daily/weekly/monthly needs for the coming year of
impoverished family survival. Link-by-link, they
will "spend" this ThaiGold in their local village
market, for vegetables, fish, fruit, rice and rent.

After a few days of healing/rest/recovery, he will
again tearfully depart. They will have a going away
party for him: Tie pristine strands of White Yarn
around his wrists: A farewell and Good Luck symbol
of highest significance. In SouthEast Asia. His
destination, of course, is Bangkok. And the arena.

To once again Muai Thai: KickBox...
...Maybe even die-for... ThaiGold.

I myself, have a small ThaiGold neck-chain. Given to
me years ago. ... a long story. I treasure it. More
than all the fiat money in the world. Even more than
GoldEagles, Krugarands, MapleLeafs, Philharmonics.

There is something about ThaiGold. Ask any Asian. They
know it when they see it. Not sparkly. Not cheap 18-K
jewelry counter trinket gold. No. They are insulted by
gifts of anything other than real ThaiGold. No assay is
necessary. They just look at it. The design. The simple
craftsmanship. They sense the density of it. They know
it has value. Utmost value. Spendable value. Survivable
value. Intrinsic value. Fought-for. Often died-for.

ThaiGold..
Got some.?. ... Get some.!.
============================================================



THC (4/19/2000; 0:57:36MDT - Msg ID:29006)
Oro.......
Did I ever mention that........

.........

.........

"You DA MAN!"

Thank you so much for your continued sharing of ideas.

Glad to see you back in action after the battle with the IRS.....

Cheers,

ORO (4/19/2000; 0:29:04MDT - Msg ID:29005)
White Hills - The "little guy"
Buy an older car.

Rent or own without debt.

Find a job with a financially strong exporter.

Reduce expenses, save in gold and in high yield bond and dividend funds. Do not lock up your funds in long term CDs. Stay liquid.

If you can afford to do so, create a second home and residency rights outside the US where you can go when Boomers start retiring and getting the diseases of old age. They will vote for themselves all of your income and all of your assets if they can come close to getting them. Make it difficult.



ThaiGold (4/19/2000; 0:07:56MDT - Msg ID:29004)
Re: Primus (4/18/2000; 11:20:12MDT - Msg ID:28933)
Invitation from ThaiRanch
================================================
...
4-18-2000
To: Primus / RE: Your #28933

Many of your remarks struck a chord with me,
almost as if I could have written them myself,
about myself.!.

We seem to have alot in common, from living alone
upon a ranch, to loosing our shirt in gold stuff,
and being unable to do anything but wait it out,
else suffer enormous losses.

Most of my dreams, too, have been postponed, cancelled,
or sidetracked due to unwittingly "investing" in PM's
at the wrong time, and apparently for the wrong reasons,
and of the wrong category.

Caveat Emptor. We Learn From Our Mistakes. Sometimes.

But I am ever-the-optimist. I mean, ... Things cannot
possibly get worse than what I've already endured. I do
see light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe it's just more
of my wishful thinking. But what else can I do.?.

If you have time, and care to become PenPals, please
feel free to e-mail me at: ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com

Cordially...
ThaiGold
=========================================================











ORO (4/19/2000; 0:05:39MDT - Msg ID:29003)
Oldgold stirring the pot
Oldgold, thanks for stirring our little pot of soup. Some stuff has gottent stuck at the bottom.

Rather that try to put Trail Guide's point across for him, which he does very well himself, I will just point out this:

1. There has been a gold standard in effect through the 80s.
The US overdrew its gold and the system collapsed.

2. There has been a dual physical gold and paper gold standard since 1989 or so. The US and UK overdrew this by 1997.

3. The Asian collapse, though it would have happened eventually anyway, was a planned event that saved our sorry @$$es for three years.

4. The bulk of the dollar support mechanism (remember that we did not have a current account surplus in three decades) was a series of debt traps for various emerging nations that were indebted by tricks and by force. These debtors needed dollars to pay off interest on dollar loans so that they could buy life's basics on the global markets.

5. The idea of a debt derived money offering stability in economic function and in prices is an absurdity on the scale of defying gravity, absolving the world from Newton's law. Without an anchor in a commodity money, all debt money spirals out of control and into worthlessness. No conceivable system can make it otherwise. Gold is to finance and money as the speed of light is to Einstein's law of relativity. Gold answers the question "relative to what?".

In short: for a monetary system to work, someone, somewhere, must be able to exchange the currency for gold AT A FIXED RATE. We call this parity.

6. The global dollar debt system is collapsing. Soon, only the US and a few "friends" will be left owing dollars and owning the "bag" - our debt.

7. The system could not work if it was well known even among the top bankers, because their attempts to get into gold for defense against this would have killed the system. Even now, when it is apparent, bankers refuse to believe that their product is as toxic as RJR's and Columbia's main export combined (and they work in remarkably simillar ways).

Finally, say thanks for the low gold and silver prices you are getting and pray that it can continue. Next thanksgiving tell your familly to give thanks to the Germans, Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, Indians, Italians and others who feed and clothe us half the time (actually 56% in 1998, 60% in 1999).
---------------------------------------
Some details and discussion follow:

We have fought a war and have lost it. The war that was fought was for financial hegemony through the issue of the reserve currency for the world. In essence making the US serve the role of banker to the world. The war was lost in 1968 and defeat conceded in 1971 and again in 1973. With much support from a world scared of a complete freeze-up of commerce, the dollar was resuscitated just in the nick of time and a new gold convertibility standard was put together by the same bankers that pushed for and got the Fed and then Bretton Woods. JP Morgan said "gold is the only money". He said so well into the Fed's life when gold was no longer circulating in great volumes.

Fiat debt money is incapable of maintaining value without a fix to a real item - notably the precious metals, and the most prominent of them, gold. The dollar is two different things at the same time. Within the US is only a product of debt, the IOUs of all us credit card using and mortgage and car loan paying people that the bank sells to the producers of the houses, goods, autos we buy with "credit". Outside the US, the dollar is much the same, until it meets the BIS for transnational settlements of imbalances. There, the central banks trade gold for dollars at an unknown exchange rate much greater than that in the markets. (This is a premium that is payed for the right to buy gold rather than the gold itself - this way it is kept off the books). The private markets provide the non-US private bankers an opportunity to hedge their dollar assets and those of their clients. The US banks and their UK allies produce the paper gold needed for settlements of dollars into gold debt.

The fact that someone - somewhere - can settle over $100 billion dollars in unbalance "imbalance of payments" every year with gold, is what makes the dollar's value relatively stable.

The US and UK bankers had completely overstepped their bounds in the process and issued way more paper gold than there could ever be redeemed (the BIS and OCC statistics just deal with derivative contracts, these are just mirrors of a much larger gold banking system which underlies trade and at which gold settles the dollar through the SDR). So long as the gold credits were believed to be redeemable, the system was credible.

When it lost credibility, in 1996 - 1997, the imperative became the classic wildcat bank strategy of moving the gold in the back door when the inspector comes to look at your reserves, and transfering it to the next bank just as the inspector is on his way there. The whole dynamic is now the satisfaction of gold demand by whatever means necessary so as to maintain credibility of the paper and thus prevent a "bank run". The Washington Agreement was the statement by the EU that they will not put in jeopardy any more of their gold, that their part in the dollar support system is over. Since that date, the US has been exporting some 800 tons of gold (annual rate) officially, and an unknown ammount "below custom's radar".

In the meantime, the bankers in the EU and the UK have been redeeming their gold liabilities to their clients with American gold liabilities. When actual gold ran out and gold yet to be mined (or found or explored for) was used for settlement, some time in the late 80s, this part of the dollar support system was born. The part US banks played was (at first) small, US market share in gold banking was some 20% in 1995. By 1997, it passed 35%, by mid 99- over 42%, now it probably passed the 50% mark according to OCC numbers (BIS numbers for the end of 99 will only come out in June).

This process reflects the change of responsibility for managing the dollar from the losers of WWII to the "winner". The Fed is responsible for the viability of the liabilities of US banks. These liabilities are what we call dollars if banks can't supply dollars they owe, the Fed supplies them through the treasury and directly. The gold liabilities of US banks are quickly growing so that they will soon hold all of the dollar side of the global dollar-gold settlement system. When the transfer of gold liability from the UK to the US is complete, there will no longer be any reason for Europe and the Oil nations, nor China to assist in controling the gold ecxhange rate. At that point, the gold obligations will be terminated and gold contracts and accounts drawn on US banks will be settled in dollars only.
The time for that is not here yet. I would venture a guess at the time frame of the end of this year. At current rates, the transfer should be finished by then.

The terms for the end of the game were set, in part, in the early 80s. Since then, there had been a tremendous effort by the US government to stop use of American resources by American and foreign consumers. Major finds of gas, and particularly, oil were capped and not allowed to go into production. Forest lands were set aside from loggers. Gold mines were induced not to explore nor produce gold within the US. Why? So that when the end does come, the US will have cash traded commodities to sell - so that when the US can't buy on dollar credit anymore, it will have something to trade while the country is reindustrialized.

The US tried to play the technology card by assisting US tech companies in gaining investments, that was done by making them appear more attractive to investors through SEC and IRS accounting rules regarding ESOPs and merger accounting that lower the cash costs of top talent and make losses seem like earnings. But the "social adjustment" oriented school system produces mostly good salespeople and hamburger flippers. India has more programmers than Silicon Valley, and Taiwan and Singapore produce more chips. The best computer and software design is done in Ireland and the Norse countries, and wireless technology is mostly a Finnish, British and German industry. The only way to eliminate the disadvatage in education is to import as many tech pros as we can before they stop wanting to come here. If 10 million 30-35 year old techies can be imported over the next 5-10 years, the US may have a chance to survive as the major economy.

The bank debt reports published by the BIS and the IMF tell the story in all of its gorey statistical details. The dollar debt outside the US is collapsing as it is turned from emerging market and transnational corporate debt into American debt. The US imports produce a flood of dollars that pay off the liabilities of Emerging nation's corporations, governments and banks. It is the need by these to repay dollar loans that has produced demand for dollars abroad. Now that they no longer borrow in quantity and have been reducing their debt, these countries are slowly reducing the international value of the dollar and adding themselves to the long list of dollar creditors. The only dollar debtors left are the UK, some HIPCs, and the greatest debtor ever, the US.

The story is simple. The debt trap set for the emerging markets by 3% dollar interest rates in the early nineties, was sprung in 1997 by a joint effort of the Fed, the IMF and the BIS. The IMF demanded self destructive policies from the countries it was supposed to help, the BIS raised their bank's reserve requirements (actually it was their net asset ratios - a.k.a. ccapital adequacy - but few understand what that is and reserves are a close enough descriptor), and the Fed raised interest rates by all of 1/4% and the whole Asian economic system collapsed.

This generated the requisite dollar demand, stopped Asian gold demand, produced an Asian gold supply, and allowed EU and US banks to buy out many Asian corporation's assets that they were barred from owning before. Hyena and Vulture LP had their day. We were spared disaster for another three years.





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