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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/19/1999 All times are U.S. Mountain Time View Yesterday's Discussion. Scrappy (12/19/99; 23:36:20MDT - Msg ID:21383) Goldfly, read it. Something is wierd--like they WANT to start a panic. Great detail, they've gone into, down to the blankets, food, BOTTLED water 'just in case' they have to take care of several thousand residents. The same residents they've been telling NOT to prepare. What is the deal, here, anyway? If they are so sure y2k is gonna be a bump in the road, they sur have spent an awful lot of money on supplies to feed and control the masses. And then, publicize it in the Washington Post, Sunday edition, at great length, less than two weeks before the rollover. Okay, now I'm getting worried. SHIFTY (12/19/99; 23:26:47MDT - Msg ID:21382) goldfly I seem to remember hearing about underground bunkers for bureaucrats ,they will be OK. That should make us peasents feel better . Goldfly (12/19/99; 23:06:03MDT - Msg ID:21381) You know, I really hope Y2K just goes away quietly, but....... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-12/19/255l-121999-idx.html Does anybody else think that this is rather bizzare behaviour from the city whose leading lights keep telling us everything is A-OK?Basically (if you don't want to read it) the authorities in D.C. are spending gobs of money for last minute stockpiling and other preps. Here is the last paragraph of the overly-long article. Why couldn't they just say this all year? Instead of just leading people on and leaving them utterly unprepared?".....our confidence level is pretty high that the basic infrastructure is going to be there. But by the same token, we want to be sure that if something happens, we're going to be up and ready to deal with it. We won't be out partying." Peter Asher (12/19/99; 22:17:46MDT - Msg ID:21380) Netking's URL Must have hit shift-V before control-V when pasting. Paste in location box and delete V and hit enter. SHIFTY (12/19/99; 21:56:42MDT - Msg ID:21379) netking Crash alert index 10 , how high does the scale go? SHIFTY (12/19/99; 21:45:31MDT - Msg ID:21378) It's a Wonderful Life Just finished watching "It's a Wonderful Life" and I realized that ths USA has turned into "Pottersville"I miss Bedford Falls! Bill (12/19/99; 21:38:55MDT - Msg ID:21377) POG slowly on the move up overseas From Platteville WI to Sacramento, CA - 2 yrs ago Netking (12/19/99; 21:36:06MDT - Msg ID:21376) Crash Alert Update Vhttp://www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.html The US Stockmarket crash alert index has been regraded to reading of -10.The ramifications of this are obvious with long positions now being removed & short selling of equities in a more pronounced manner being the name of the game. Check the link above for full details. Chris Powell (12/19/99; 20:30:35MDT - Msg ID:21375) GATA opens E-Gold account http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/325.html? We welcome contributions towardour legal and advertising efforts.http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/325.html? nickel62 (12/19/99; 20:06:42MDT - Msg ID:21374) Hiding private gold ownership Remember the primary reason no one is going to admit that they own a lot of gold is they want to keep it.Whoever knows you have it might someday decide to visit you to find it. A strong deterence to openly disclosing gold ownership to even the most thoughtful user of saftey deposit boxes. Galearis (12/19/99; 19:47:00MDT - Msg ID:21373) Crash alert!!! The crash alert is -10! Monday may be interesting... beesting (12/19/99; 19:35:29MDT - Msg ID:21372) Trailing only Scrooge McDuck! How soon before Bill Gates is a trillionaire? http://www.bloomberg.com/feature.html Gates current stake would cross the $1 Trillion mark by 2005.....beesting. IRL (12/19/99; 19:16:11MDT - Msg ID:21371) (No Subject) IRLLongtime lurker, thank you to all for the light given in this dark world. Also near Grants home-Monroe Wi. FOA (12/19/99; 19:03:30MDT - Msg ID:21370) (No Subject) Time to go. Good luck all,,, FOA beesting (12/19/99; 19:02:41MDT - Msg ID:21369) Chicken Man#21360&TownCrier#21358 -$11,049,000,000 in Gold assets. Proves 3 heads thinking together,create much more accurate final results....Thank you.....beesting. FOA (12/19/99; 18:59:35MDT - Msg ID:21368) Reply PH in LA (12/18/99; 18:14:17MDT - Msg ID:21282)Questions About America's GoldPh, I think just about every other major country (outside the IMF / dollar faction) has private audits of their gold. Too date, it's mainly been the US gold stocks that have worried people because the dollar is so leveraged over this holding. I understand that the gold is intact, but they don't want to draw attention to it. Any audit only highlights how little gold is backing the trillions of dollar assets. That's the reason for the stonewall. Too a lesser extent, any audit carries overtones of eventual dollar backing. Something the BIS would have a major say in as they could attach it at the old $42 rate. Let's be serious here, if current international law demands the compensation of German slave labour and Swiss Gold value reparations, all hell would break lose for the payment of dollar backed gold confiscated in 71. Both the official and private levels would be after any gold backing our present dollar. The only way the US gold could come into play would be with a new currency. And any whiff of that process (an audit is the beginning) would literally tank the dollar big! Well before the fact. So, good luck to GATA and MR. Turk! FOA Chicken man (12/19/99; 18:57:56MDT - Msg ID:21367) The USI and ME oil/gold http://www.freeyellow.com/members5/unitedstatesofislam/index.html Check lower RH corner,100years from now......Left, right or otherwise.....it is the plan of one ethnic group...... FOA (12/19/99; 18:40:19MDT - Msg ID:21366) Comment USAGOLD (12/17/99; 9:31:27MDT - Msg ID:21207)Today's Gold Market Report: Gold Zooms Higher; Armstrong Closet Gold Bug (Literally)Hello USAGOLD, Armstrong is a good example of how many high profile people do own physical gold without the world press knowing it. The more money people have the more they buy gold insurance. And they do it in private, not because they are afraid of government controls, but because they want to buy more at lower prices. It's only the leveraged gold bug that bemoans the falling price because it destroys the short term bet. Just like Farfel said, if the paper players ever grasp that this is a "house game" rigged against them, the market will zoom. Still, the odds are that they will ride the paper train all the way down, without ever understanding it's a separate market. I wish some readers would come out and discuss this without going into "overload". Myself and many other physical gold advocates are also "gold stock owners". Only difference is that our perception keeps us most fully in physical. The real gold stock boom will come after all the controls have impacted their current prices and gold is much, much higher. Then, even with official taxes and all, their profits will run up a great deal. Just not as much as current conditions will allow. In any event, the worlds real money is into physical gold, waiting for the transition that must come. Does anyone really think the Bill Gates and W. Buffets of this world don't have a block of gold? It would not surprise me if Centennial was their broker! (smile)thanks FOA Cavan Man (12/19/99; 18:40:09MDT - Msg ID:21365) FOA I have suggested to my wife that we might retire in the Euro zone somewhere. She is very comfortable with this THOUGHT and I am glad of it. Best-------CM Cavan Man (12/19/99; 18:37:55MDT - Msg ID:21364) Ross L I know the place well. We have a cabin here that he built before circumstances propelled him to fame. RossL (12/19/99; 18:22:58MDT - Msg ID:21363) Cavan Man I'm somewhere near 39" north and 84" west. US Grant's birthplace is nearby. An exemplary military man but a nondescript president. SteveH (12/19/99; 18:10:07MDT - Msg ID:21362) Now Japan! www.kitco.com repost:Date: Sun Dec 19 1999 18:01Quad (France and Japan unite against US over world financial system....) ID#240109:Copyright © 1999 Quad/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedTOKYO, Dec 19 ( AFP ) - Read between the diplomatic lines, the visit of French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin has shown France and Japan growing closer in their opposition to US domination of the debate on international finance. Since the Asian crisis, opinion is growing polarised on how to regulate the global financial architecture whose keystones are the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and the World Bank. Jospin's two-day visit put the seal on a tentative Paris-Tokyo alliance which is standing up to the United States' "black-and-white approach," a member of the French delegation said. The alliance may come into its own in the latter half of next year, when Japan assumes the presidency of the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations and France the rotating presidency of the European Union. "Larry Summers wants the International Monetary Fund to no longer concern itself with rich or poor countries, just with emerging markets," a French official said of the US Treasury secretary's proposal put forward this week. Summers in a speech delivered in London last Tuesday said the IMF should leave long-term financing for poorer countries to the private sector and concentrate more on emergency funding..... http://www.afp.com/ext/english/nst/asean/991219030316.k80n3ytq.html FOA (12/19/99; 18:04:39MDT - Msg ID:21361) Reply Cavan Man (12/15/99; 19:20:25MDT - Msg ID:21105)canamamiWell, if it is intellectual combat I am engaged in then, I am woefully unarmed. Here's a thought on FOA/Another and OIL/GOLD:Probably not in my lifetime (I'm 41) but oil will eventually be displaced as the #1 "resource" in the world by something else. What? You decide. Without even reading the article, I will agree that the role of oil in the world economy has been marginalized and diminished by the author's uppositionssimply for our conversation's sake. The Arabs know this. So, not only is it important for them to obtain REAL VALUE instead of FIAT for their oil product while the world turns, they have a strategy to utilize the REAL VALUE they've accumulated when the world's monetary reality goes into paradigm shift overdrive. I believe the ultimate end game is not for the ME to sit on their chips and continue to supply oil but rather, to become a dominant entity in world finance. Well, they have been for years if you read Aristotle in the HOF (petrodollars). They've simply traded one valuable resource in this lifetime for another to be deployed in ANOTHER lifetime. We're dealing with a lotof wisdom here. Their genes go back over 5K years. What do you think? You have a better mind than me (in all honesty). Tell you what though; I strongly believe I'm right.Sorry for the shabby thought processing. Perhaps the forum can help me out.FOA: Do you agree?Hello Cavan Man , You are certainly taking a large jump ahead in our timeline, but this concept must be correct. I know Another has more imput on this your take may be some of it. I, personally think they will join the EMU eventually and use their oil, gold wealth to build a financial empire. Under the umbrella of a united europe, fairly priced oil could propel this entire block into this new millennium as a super commerce arena. We shall see!Good tidings to you also,,,,,,,,,,FOA Chicken man (12/19/99; 17:59:26MDT - Msg ID:21360) ORO's "Missing Link" http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H41/Current/ Here's the link that seems to be missing......got bookmarks...? FOA (12/19/99; 17:47:33MDT - Msg ID:21359) Comment Aristotle (12/16/99; 2:20:51MDT - Msg ID:21132)Hello again Aristotle, In light of what is being discussed I had to offer your wise words for review:" " " The destination in any journey is always the easier vision to perceive than the forecast of details to be encountered in route to that destination." " "Truly the road to super gold will offer interesting encounters! Also:" " "My best advice to anyone pondering the future of Gold is to always remember that it is a globally recognized and utilized asset, and that not every person's experience and perspective (6 billion of them!) is the same as your own or that of your neighbor. Your perception of Gold could be rocked overnight by a development in China that you never saw coming." " "Did you know this was coming before Farfel? (smile)Peter Asher, Thanks for the words. With this nice meeting hall, we are all going to learn a lot about gold in the years ahead.Thanks,,,,,,,FOA TownCrier (12/19/99; 17:28:14MDT - Msg ID:21358) Peter Asher and Beesting...as a segue to all... A most excellent work of art, Sir Peter!Beesting (12/19/99; 13:15:50MDT)We ran your numbers through our computer because, as you said, something looked amiss with your two calculations of 1227 tonnes or 6,700 tonnes.Laying hands on a reasonably recent Treasury Bulletin (Sept. '98, actually) confirms in black & white that the starting number you cite is a good one. You said: " I saw in a press release by the FED (for the life of me I can't retrieve the URL) that the FED claimed $11,049,000,000 in Gold assets Dec.17,1999." This Treasury Bulletin lists the value of gold stocks among the U.S. Reserve Assets as being $11,053,000,000 (valued at $42.2222 per troy ounce.)Running the numbers... with 31.103 grams per troy ounce, and 1 million grams per tonne, at the specified $42 valuation for the latest figure you've cited yields U.S. holdings at 8,139 tonnes.While we agree that the U.S. government should be forthright with information concerning the national assets that may or may not be held in Ft. Knox (and everywhere else while we're at it,) we can't help but offer a further comment on the matter.If present, these 8,000+ tonnes are collectively held, and in the event of a total currency collapse would be used as the basis for rebuilding. This gold would be wielded as a tool in the hands of the public officials in a similar manner as the power to alter trade policies, mobilize militaries, or provide domestic or foreign aid of one form or another. Although this quantity of gold represents, coincidentally enough, approximately one ounce per U.S. citizen, it would be a big error in judgement to assume that this ounce of gold would find its way to you if a crisis were to develop such that the reality of the gold in Ft. Knox becomes more important than the myth. The government would find itself in the soup in the event that it was in fact goldless when such a crisis of the currency were to develop, but any citizen is rather naïve who conducts their own affairs under the assumption that the government will protect and provide for their individual and personal interests. Order up your very own ounce of gold (or more) and lose no sleep over the presence of Ft. Knox gold. Whether it's there or not, it'll be the gold in your own hand will keep the wolves from your door...or help you find a new neighborhood without wolves.Once you have your own gold, you are free to pursue this Ft. Knox issue with calm, emotionally detatched interest...prepared for whatever the fallout may be. Certainly, its a grand exercise in determining whether or not we remain a "government of, by, and for the people."Be a nation unto yourself by starting your own version of Ft. Knox (the version that HAS gold, that is!) No sovereign individual should be without it. Your eggs are too important to have them all in one basket (i.e., wealth held in a national currency.) It's time to grow up and leave the nest, dear friends...your mamma will be so proud. After all, I'd wager that very few at this forum are still living at home. Go ahead and take that last step toward self-reliance--don't be a dependent upon the caretaking ability of our government. Chris Powell (12/19/99; 17:19:21MDT - Msg ID:21357) Another exhortation to dump techs and buy golds http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/324.html? Article from Forbes posted at GATA. Cavan Man (12/19/99; 17:17:19MDT - Msg ID:21356) Hello FOA Good tidings Sir Knight. FOA (12/19/99; 17:12:15MDT - Msg ID:21355) Comment Good words Mr. Farfel, good words indeed." " "When I finally see the gold price soaring, then and only then, will I believe that America is re-embracing pragmatism and common sense in the financial markets." " "Ha! Ha!, sooner than you think. Cavan Man (12/19/99; 17:05:16MDT - Msg ID:21354) Ross L Good one! No, Peter is right. BTW, I am looking for a good bio of Old Hickory, can you help. Thanks....CM CoBra(too) (12/19/99; 17:00:14MDT - Msg ID:21353) Si Tacuisses Philosophus Mansisses.... ... lamprey_65 (12/19/99; 16:56:01MDT - Msg ID:21352) Anyone notice this? http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pr99100.htm Check the address for making payment on BOE gold sold at auction. Surprise, surprise!Lamprey FOA (12/19/99; 16:55:07MDT - Msg ID:21351) Look at it this way! JA (12/16/99; 0:08:58MDT - Msg ID:21128)Questions for FOAIn your post of: FOA (12/15/99; 19:54:05MDT - Msg ID:21108) Hello JA, If you reread your post 21128, my reply will be more clear. Our gold market is a confusing, non definable place for most people. Few have the immediate grasp of it that only 30+ years of eating, drinking and living gold can bring. On top of that, even fewer have accepted the impact that an "evolving" market can have on a static mind. Frozen in past beliefs and concepts, modern long traders have been ruined as gold crosses an unimaginable gulf of time and space to regain it's roots as real money. Such are the days we witness in our time. It would offer very little indeed, for us to stand on stage, puff our credentials and say, follow us because we know! In that crowd of "longs" there are perhaps hundreds, no thousands of gold security analysts that have lead their clients and friends down the road of "past performance tells us where we are going". Technical analysis, contrary opinion, supply and demand figures, traders commitments and yes, even future price inflation projections have left them all performing the duties of "managing their substantial, long term cumulative losses". The only group that has survived this ongoing transition are the "physical gold advocates". They have counselled against leverage and espoused the use of real gold as a long term hedge against their other assets. We have taken a step further and proclaimed that gold should be held as "real money" in a savings account concept. A concept supported by overwhelming evidence that the world's paper currency system is at the threshold of a major change. One of such scope that it has initiated the world-wide buying of gold by large players that also hold this view. In this light these buyers of gold presently own an internationally accepted currency that is highly valued by the ECB nations as the Washington Agreement spells out. A currency who's exchange rate fluctuates only somewhat more than many others. Still, a money that has the potential to become the best investment of the new millennium. And today the loses on this physical position pale in comparison to the performance of all it's derivatives. As the world loses it's decades old reserve currency system, official gold usage will only accelerate as nations mark their holdings at an increasing premium to the leveraged paper gold markets. A premium that this modern market cannot match as it's magnitude will destroy their over extended equity. This process of discounting paper and building a premium on physical will become a visible example for citizen savers who wish to escape the effects that deleveraging a world will bring . International trading of physical gold will be used to fill the equity void a fallen dollar and fallen dollar paper gold market will leave. The initiation of returning to gold in an account settlement function will drive the demand of physical gold and be a benefit of common people. Background gold currency will be held as a new paper digital currency takes the stage of account settlement. I believe the evidence points to the Euro as that digital money. But who am I and why do we say all of this? I am the voice you cannot know, therefore cannot measure. The reader must build their own understanding of this as "events build the credibility", not our words. No favour will flow to us for your success! For, we believe that it was the wholesale, blind following of accepted "Western money views" that created this generation of question less savers! They gained their understanding by accepting "past track records" and "credentials" instead of striving for their own reasoning ability. A mindset that is destine to lead to a massive loss of wealth as this unfolds. You are offered more truth in these Thoughts than many will admit. We say that the major core Central Banks of the world are truthful when they give their gold statistics. Yet some say it was this CB gold that has covered the physical supply deficit. I ask, how can that be when the World Gold Council figures show that most of the sold CB gold has stayed in their system over the last ten years? I say that this deficit is covered from the discarding of gold by Western investors as they exchange their real physical in return for modern gold derivatives holdings. The CBs only offered political backing for this to occur. One has but to examine the LBMA volume figures that Another said would verify this trend. It was noted that this form of trading would explode if gold went below $360. It did and it did as the London pool was several years ago forced to publicly offer their numbers! Today, others declare we are spinning a tail without proof and the CBs are lying. Even today, the acceptance that CB gold is largely transferred within their system has turned the search for guilt to Fort Knox! Again, we state that the official gold stays put. I submit that the eventual acceptance that paper derivatives are at the heart of this problem will only confirm the eventual destruction of our beloved paper gold marketplace. A change that many in the industry "do not" want to happen. Once all other explanations are exhausted, all doubt will focus on this modern over leveraged marketplace. As official gold prices begin to climb, only then will the "loss of supply credibility" begin the paper discounting phase. Investors will realize the tremendous leverage inherent in holding just one ounce of physical gold and attempt every means to demand delivery. From these paper markets they will find mostly cash payments that will greatly discount the ongoing physical price. I openly state that the present paper gold marketplace is not the same as the physical gold market. This will become apparent as the paper market wildly fluctuates between $0 and $xxxxx, all the while discounting an ever increasing official and private physical gold price. Yet, the "static mind" of yesterday year cannot comprehend how physical gold can be priced in the thousands while paper gold contracts and the industry that depends on them fall away. Truly an example of the impact "western thought" has had on real values in our world. The grasping for bookkeeping entries of account in an effort to save something that is nothing. A bull market in physical gold is coming as this paper marketplace fails. Indeed, an even larger gold bull is coming after that, as "Reality" and "Modern Western Perception" converge. Here, at USAGOLD we will "watch this new gold market together". Truly, a market that is "not as before"!More later,,,,,,,,,,,thank you for reading and thinking FOA Peter Asher (12/19/99; 16:52:10MDT - Msg ID:21350) RossL That was real good! I think he's referring to "Give 'em Hell" Harry, though. CoBra(too) (12/19/99; 16:50:09MDT - Msg ID:21349) "The Corruption" in worlds history .... is not a new concept ... Just happened to trip over a book by that name - by Alfred Sturminger-published 1982 by Langen Mueller - (with a special and personal acknowledgement to a wise aunt-I've had the privilge to adore as well), starts his insights with Amon and the Egyptian clicque of priests to the modern tax evaders as Spiro T. Agnew, tricky Dick's VP and last hope for Watergate deflection. The Oscar-award winning Hollywood screen-re-play of Titanic- a cruel story of first to third class disparaged passengers meeting their ultimate fate may, hopefully, come true for all the manipulators of the un(-th)sinkable flagships of "counter party risk management" - a subtle euphenism for corroberation and collusion in terms of alleged corruption. Since the likes of Ted Arnold's and Andy Smith's have been mentioned on this site, add the Bianchini's and their golden BRE-X hand shake - corruption is the name of the game.I've had my share of so called gold anal-ysts ( while they've been right there won't be any financing for any junior, even if you've got more concessions in Ghana than Ashanti, and prospects which are considered valid by the guy, who put Kidston and Porgera into production) - there's no chance of financing without selling out to corrupt BANK's. AS a PS - GS - seems to be the ultimate predator of the Gold/Silver Corruption!Gold! -Man-! Cover Some! RossL (12/19/99; 16:44:30MDT - Msg ID:21348) Cavan Man That would be Andrew Jackson, right? Cavan Man (12/19/99; 15:57:30MDT - Msg ID:21347) Locations From the state that gave this country the last great President. Guesses? Peter Asher (12/19/99; 15:52:05MDT - Msg ID:21346) Forgot the list To Koan, Mr. G, Leigh, TomCat, The Scot, Turbo, Dragonfly, Michael and ALL Peter Asher (12/19/99; 15:50:34MDT - Msg ID:21345) The Goal A few months ago, I told Koan there was such a thing as an economic poem. Those of you listed above, are (limited to the memory of this moment) those whose posts have also spoken this view. The ethical being, he sows and he reaps. He weaves his fine nets, to cast in the deeps. Then the predator rides through the fields and he keeps What he wants; and the rest, it can wither. The ethical being, he quarries and mines, And he takes what he's dug, to be cut and refined. Then the predator grabs the results and opines That he did it for good or for glory. The ethical being, he continues to grow. His cities increase, buildings row after row. Then the predator strikes and lays it all low, In the name of a cause that is holy. The ethical being, he strives for the truth; For exchange that is fair, and the presence of ruth. But the leaders they lie, and the dreams seem to die, As the centuries tell the same story. Yet the ethical being will keep after the dream Of a world where his labor's rewarded. He'll produce what he wishes, for diamonds or fishes, And coins to be carefully hoarded. Yes, the ethical being will achieve that fine scene-- That new world so brave and so bold. This will all come to be. Man will truly be free. Just keep all of your money in Gold! Buttercup (12/19/99; 15:27:00MDT - Msg ID:21344) HLime (12/19/99; 4:14:28MDT - Msg ID:21302) H LimeNow that Peter has spoken for me, I guess I'll add something. Decisions about preparations for Y2K are some of the most hair-raising choices I have ever had to make. Even more frustrating are the choices I wish I could make but don't have the resources for. Planning what to do in the case of various worst-case scenarios is not a cheerful way to pass the time, but ONCE A PLAN IS IN PLACE, at least you don't have to dwell on the horrible possibilities. As a stable reference point, I try to remember what I have to offer in exchange with other people, mainly in terms of knowledge, communication, ideas, and skills, rather than material goods, which are stealable, losable, and perishable. No, we are not the same people we were in the Thirties, but we are the people we are, and that will have to be sufficient. We will have to solve the problems. Why? Because that is how we will survive. That we WILL survive is the idea to keep in front, like a beacon. And may the Force be with you. Peter Asher (12/19/99; 15:26:39MDT - Msg ID:21343) Farfel Good post. Maybe though, what might serve to get them "re-embracing pragmatism and common sense in the financial markets,' would be to get waupped up the side of the head by a +$200 gold spike. "Chicken or egg"?? NORTH OF 49 (12/19/99; 15:18:00MDT - Msg ID:21342) Home turf 150 miles "North of 49"th parallel, Alberta Canada Farfel (12/19/99; 15:17:47MDT - Msg ID:21341) Does the Gold Market Work Properly or Not? The announcement today allowing Chinese citizens the right to buy gold is EXTREMELY BULLISH. There is simply no possible rational contradiction to this fact.In a normal market free of governmental intervention and Wall Street bullion bank rigging, gold would rise at least $60 an ounce when the gold market opens on Monday. MINIMUM $60 an ounce!Why?Well let us extrapolate from recent history. When it was recently announced that China would be allowed into the WTO, the internet/tech stocks exploded, in most cases rising at least 20% in value. Reason: the various Wall Street investment houses declared that, by allowing China into the WTO, internet/tech companies would reap enormous financial benefits.Analogously, over time, a billion potential consumers for gold has to be enormously bullish for gold consumption. So if the gold market is acting as "efficiently" as the equities market today, then an immediate, minimum rise of around 20% in the gold price is required (somewhere arouind 340-350). Moreover, Wall Street consistently talks about "globalization" as one of the primary reasons for the entire stock market explosion. Well, with China now opening its consumer market to gold purchases, we are now witnessing globalization in the gold market. Certainly, utilizing New Paradigm rationale, that little fact must be good for a minimum 300% rise in the gold price over the next year. After all, if globalization arguments can support the super lofty stock market (particularly in the area of hi tech), then the same arguments should support a super lofty gold price, right?Of course, the gold market is rigged and suppressed by the Clinton government and its friendly CB proxies, so I would not be surprised to see the gold price fall on Monday for any number of absurd reasons.You have notorious gold bear Ted Arnold declaring his "bullishness" on gold while at the same time declaring that the CB's cannot get rid of the stuff fast enough (A categorical lie, of course...the recent IMF quarterly report revealed aggregate CB gold reserves INCREASED the past quarter, and by no small amount either). At the same time, a con artist like Arnold declares that the Washington Agreement means no more dramatic falls in the price of gold but at the same time, he assures everybody that, at the same, time the gold price will barely move upward from its current price level either and certainly will never see 400 anytime soon.Contradictions, oxymorons, and more contradictions! That is all part of the methodology employed by the dominant spinmeisters of the gold market: make repeated, contradictory, oxymoronic pronouncements that are so patently stupid as to make gold market participants so exasperated by the absence of logic in the gold market that they abandon ship altogether.It is time to stop listening to the Ted Arnolds and the Andy Smiths of this world. They are completely full of it and do not deserve one scintilla of attention from thinking, rational people.In the most egregious example of oxymoronic, contradictory actions in the gold market, we recently discovered new info concerning super gold bear, Marty "Cook the Books" Armstrong, with respect to secretive enormous acquisitions of physical gold/silver during the time he repeatedly, vociferously denounced the value of gold as a short/medium term investment.More contradictions, oxymorons, and contradictions! Someday, somehow, (maybe when the Messiah comes?) the average American will finally start thinking for himself again and will allow logic to re-enter the markets. Someday maybe the average American will turn on his brain once again and stop allowing CNBC and Louis Ruykeser and Abby Joseph, etc. to do all their thinking. We can only hope.But until such time, I do not remain particularly optimistic about the gold price, sorry to say. When I finally see the gold price soaring, then and only then, will I believe that America is re-embracing pragmatism and common sense in the financial markets.ThanksF* JLV (12/19/99; 15:01:39MDT - Msg ID:21340) From Kitco Date: Sun Dec 19 1999 16:35EpicAutumn (Gold Flash News & Press Releases) ID#22793:Copyright © 1999 EpicAutumn/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedhttp://indian-express.com/fe/daily/19980925/26855104.html "To prevent financial risk, China needs to boost gold reserves to 1,000-1,500 tonnes, accounting for 6.0-8.0 per cent of its foreign exchange reserves," said Liu Shanen, vice director of the Gold Economic Development and Research Institute under the State Metallurgical Industry Bureau.China's current gold reserves stood at 397 tonnes, accounting for 3.0 per cent of the country's total foreign exchange reserves, Liu said.About 60 per cent of China's $140.5 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves were in dollars, including $60 billion in US treasury bonds, state media have said.China's gold reserves have gone almost unchanged since the 1980s, gold experts said.Some Chinese economists and gold officials sounded pessimistic views on the US economy, saying a fall in the dollar would hit China'sforeign exchange reserves."I think the state should transfer part of its dollar foreign reserves to gold," he said, but added it would be a long-term process. Some economists said China could take advantage of current low gold prices to buy gold from the world market to boost gold reserves. "Compared with cash, gold is stable and safe," Liu said. The state should focus on hedging rather than appreciation of foreign exchange amid Asia's financial crisis and fears of global economic recession.Liu also suggested that the government could ease controls on gold selling and buying to boost non-governmental gold reserves, which could help the state prevent financial risk.The Chinese government's ban on individuals selling and buying gold bullion and gold bars had limited hedging demandfor gold.China's individual deposits reached 4.994989 trillion yuan ( $601.81 billion ) at the end of June, up 16.8 per cent compared with the year-ago period, the state media have said. However, a World Gold Council official said it was difficult for China to encourage individuals to buy gold bullion and gold bars because domestic output fell short of demand."Current production even cannot meet people's demand for gold jewellery," he said, adding the government could not use a large amount of foreign exchange to import gold to meet domestic demand. Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers ( Bombay ) Ltd JLV (12/19/99; 14:51:19MDT - Msg ID:21339) Location Seattle, WA lamprey_65 (12/19/99; 14:22:30MDT - Msg ID:21338) Al...Locations Newmarket, New Hampshire here.Live Free or Die!Lamprey nickel62 (12/19/99; 14:17:37MDT - Msg ID:21337) I want to thank everyone who bothered to post their local. I thought it would be good to know how geographically diverse a group we are.Baltimore,MD USA Al Fulchino (12/19/99; 14:05:09MDT - Msg ID:21336) TedW// and where are we all Y2K or no Y2k, I will be busy Dec 31,1999. If even half of the people in the areas of my stations wish to fill up all the way or half way, then it will be like other times we have had. Hurricane threats etc, have come our way and people always come piling in. We will just do our best to keep them all from hurting themsleves or anyone else when they get too pushy. I am not looking forward to any of it.Everyone seems to be posting their whereabouts, so I must have missed the reason why. Anyways, we are in Hollis, New Hampshire, just west of Nashua on your maps. Vox (12/19/99; 14:03:17MDT - Msg ID:21335) my 1/14000 oz of gold re Web etiquette I have been watching this Forum from the sidelines for a few months and only applied for posting privileges to comment about RESPECT. For me, respect is the only essential element in interpersonal interaction. Without it, the value of expression is greatly diminished, the free exchange of ideas impaired and safety of the participants at risk. People can get away with words and actions in the anonymity of the Web that they would never get away with in person, or, perhaps more accurately, would never get away with in a more civilized world. I, for one, do not work with anyone who does not have respect for my space and energy. People can have different ideas and strong emotions without violating others' rights and without making them someone else's issues.In my experience, true respect is difficult to attain and doesn't change overnight. Someone can change their facade and "act" with respect and yet it would all be a sham. Clarity of perception and expression are delicate matters and this Forum offers the opportunity to rise to the challenge of maintaining a safe place for all to participate for the beneficial growth of all. I am grateful to all of you for the truly astounding gifts you make to this Forum and for the education that I am receiving. To me, it seems that peace is dependent on prosperity and the discussion here seems to focus on the nature of true prosperity and the challenges that are faced on that path in this world. I look forward to learning from all of you.With respect .........Vox in deserto Leigh (12/19/99; 14:02:43MDT - Msg ID:21334) FOA or Anyone I'm beginning to get the impression, with all the central bank sales and with FOA telling us about the large private world-class investors that have been purchasing gold, that there is a lot of gold flowing from public into private hands. It is making me wonder whether (as the UN hopes) national sovereignty is becoming a thing of the past. Perhaps in the "new world order" it will be every man for himself, with the lucky ones holding the gold. Am I imagining this, or has anyone else thought this too?Leigh (Groton, CT) Peter Asher (12/19/99; 13:25:55MDT - Msg ID:21333) FOA (12/19/99; 9:25:05MDT - Msg ID:21318) Perfect!!That is the definitive message on this subject, "Signed sealed and delivered" as we used to say. Hopefully even Farfel and AEL will finally "Get it." lamprey_65 (12/19/99; 13:24:19MDT - Msg ID:21332) The Scot and Bill...The Market I too was surprised at the market's strength this quarter, but this is what I think happened...When the Fed began supplying the extra Y2K liquidity to financials institutions a few months ago, those institutions bought the high fliers in the market (tech mainly, maybe some internet also). This jump in buying broke the averages out of the October downtrend.Why did they pump that money into tech?...because the money has to be returned beginning in late January/early February...they could get a very nice, quick return by pumping up the high fliers for two months and still have the funds for Y2K. They couldn't loan the money out...it was just too tempting for a quick gain. It is my belief that the financials have been selling into strength for a few weeks now, selling to fund managers and individuals who didn't want to miss the party!That is why we've seen so much volume the past two weeks but not as much a move to the upside.I do see a pullback between now and the New Year, but I'm not sure it will be drastic. We could get a short January rally if Y2K effects are not immediately apparent. I think that mid to late January will begin to show the real move down. That Fed money has to be returned, and there is quite a bit of money waiting for Y2K to "pass" before it is moved overseas.Of course, if Y2K really hits...things will melt-down very quickly.Lamprey Peter Asher (12/19/99; 13:21:55MDT - Msg ID:21331) Scotty http://news.excite.com/news/r/991219/14/column-canada-baystreet This might help answer you question. beesting (12/19/99; 13:15:50MDT - Msg ID:21330) @ PHinLA on Ft. Knox Gold. http://www.usmint.gov/email/emailRS.cfm Hi PH, I too have been wondering for a long time about the mysterious 8000 plus tonnes of Gold the U.S. Gvt.is supposed to have. I have another, what may be considered, dumb question.Where did this Gold come from???? The Colonists were using Gold for money before the U.S. Constitution demanded it. For the first 160 years the U.S. was an independant country using Gold and Silver as money,was this Gold all mined in what we now know as the United States?I came up with what I hope are a few helpful hints in our shared quest for information on Gold in U.S. depositories.The above link is the e-mail address for the U.S. Mint.At this address they specifically state:Ask a question/send a comment.The U.S. Mint also states in its mission:"Maintaining physical custody and protection of the nations 100 billion dollars in Gold and Silver assets.Also,oversight of the U.S. bullion depository at Ft. Knox Kentucky."My plan of action would be, in the quest for information about U.S. current amounts of Gold;E-mail a letter that goes some-thing like this;I represent a large group of concerned citizens(at USAGOLD) that are interested in the total amount of Gold held for storage under your stated supervision.These are the questions:1. Does the Gold get audited on an annual basis? If so,who does the audit? Is this audit submitted to Congress?2. Can the amount of Gold in storage be disclosed to the American public? If not,why not?3. Are the American Gold mines providing enough Gold and Silver for the annual consumption of the U.S. Mint?(see note A. below)4. I have noted in financial publications,the U.S. Mint has been quite open about their purchases of non-precious metals, why are they not open to the public about precious metal purchases?4.(a) If the U.S. Mint is prohibited from disclosing the above information,please direct me to the Government publication that states that.Thank you for your time........End of SAMPLE e-mail.Note A.-As of Dec.17,1999 the U.S. Mint has turned 1,910,000 ounces of Gold into American Eagle Gold coins. A new annual record! Over 60 tonnes! Old record was 1,839,500 set in 1998. Statistics show an increasingly strong demand in the U.S for Gold despite the negative spin by main stream media.A little more info; I saw in a press release by the FED(for the life of me I can't retrieve the URL) that the FED claimed $11,049,000,000 in Gold assets Dec.17,1999.This would break down to 1227.3939 tonnes of physical if valued at $280.00 per ounce(PRICED TO MARKET).If priced at $42.00 per ounce(official Government price of Gold) the $11,049,000,000.00 would equal about 6,700 tonnes of Gold. Big mystery concerning Gold!Here's a little more food for thought on a slow Sunday.How much Gold is on U.S. soil?1.The London Times stated in a press release over a year ago English Gold was moved to the U.S. during WW-2,and it's still there.Amount-unknown!2.The IMF Gold in all like-ly hood is on U.S. soil.3.The Fed keeps Gold. How much--unknown!4.The U.S. Mint stores and uses Gold. Amount-unknown!Here is the 64 ounce question:If all the world Governments(including China)plan on confiscation of Gold(causing lots of spilled blood) at some unknown time in the future, why are they letting us have unlimited ownership of it right now at what most consider CHEAP prices??????Thank you for reading. Those in the know....by Gold....beesting Vox (12/19/99; 12:47:29MDT - Msg ID:21329) Canuck re y2k RTCs are not my area of expertise. I used to work in the banking industry and was involved in data communications and applications programming. One valid reason to shutdown computers over the 1999-2000 transition period is that there are many programs that will not handle the rollover properly but will do just fine if shutdown before the new year and restarted after the new year.This is the simplest, most easily avoided problem in the whole y2k debacle. It truly pales in comparison to the challenge of upgrading all data bases, all message formats, all date calculation programs, all date sensitive systems programs, embedded chips, etc. The RTC problem may be just an annoyance to those whose use of computers doesn't require time relevant data or calculations, and, some RTCs will rollover without incident. But for those whose work involves time relevant information or function, it could be quite a significant problem. Data communications requires precision timing. Message formats and data bases are exacting.I was only involved in one installation over a five year period in which the data comm and message formatting was flawless on the first attempt. And none of the installations went live without extensive testing and debugging. It is going to be interesting to do a worldwide live test in January of all systems. Even if all of the systems are already upgraded, there are potential (emphasis on potential) problems that won't even be visible until then. Might be nothing; might be hell.Now, where did we throw those order forms? how do we fill them out? who's going to do all this work? when do we get paid?To freedom .........Vox in deserto(PS: Hood River, Oregon, USA) Peter Asher (12/19/99; 12:35:24MDT - Msg ID:21328) HLime (12/19/99; 4:14:28MDT - Msg ID:21302) http://dmoz.org/about.html Re-Peter Asher (12/19/99; 1:43:29MDT - Msg ID:21299)Tomcats statement just now is the key to what my (Best) "Friend's" essay was about. >>> I liked the idea that human nature and group pessimism and optimism are a driving force.<<<Getting out from under Y2K will best be accomplished by the positive "We can do it" attitudes and intentions that people are capable of because they are NOT solely a product of Darwinian Evolution. If Darwin was right, you would have started this morning out by raising your hand in salute and saying" Heil" to a 3-d two way hologram TV screen containing an image of a man with a mustache; your loyalty duly recorded in the planetary data base!And, to clarify what appears to be a conclusion based on insufficient data, Robin has been on top of, and heavily involved with Y2K activities for years now. She is the editor on"Open Directory Project" for Home, Emergency Preparation" with sub category "Y2K", that having sub category "Precious Metals." and has done upwards of 1000 edits to date withoutpay.(See http://dmoz.org/Home/Emergency_Preparation/) ODP is a massive search engine now used by Netscape, Lycos, HotBot, and others, (see the above URL) Some people are "Doing something about it."Regarding your statement "but can only counter with touchy feelies." Her version of that was to convince me to use only a highly accurate 10 clip semi automatic 22- long, so as to make it possible to have a live incapacitated intruder, roll him into the loader bucket, dump him in the back of the pickup and deliver him to the ER! Much more gentle than a heavy gauge shotgun slug! (And stops'em father away from the front door.)Oh yes, regarding >>>Is there a manual work a round with trained people? <<< Do you need a manual for "Hey there's no propane for the fork lift. Grab a ladder and get that carton down!"Actually with half the inventory in the world sitting 10 to 16 feet off the floor, parts and propane for Fork lifts might be a very critical supply necessity. Rise above it Harry: Peter A. SteveH (12/19/99; 11:58:55MDT - Msg ID:21327) TC TC,I can't recall a specific post. Let us hope ORO tells us. tedw (12/19/99; 11:26:02MDT - Msg ID:21326) Opps http://www.usagold.com Sorry for the triple post. I stuttered. tedw (12/19/99; 11:24:01MDT - Msg ID:21325) Gas Shortage,Y2k, and Gold http://www.usagld.com Tedw in Grants Pass,Oregon.Ive noticed something interesting while shopping and maybe people in other parts of the country have noticed it too.You cant buy the large 5 gallon plastic gas containers at Wal-mart,Sears, or B--mart. They are sold out. At Wal-martthey told me they had just stocked the shelves, but when I went to look it was empty. The clerk walked away shaking his head, not understanding what was happening.I live in a rural area, and there is a local distributor whosends trucks out to deliver gas for farms and ranches in the area. We asked him the other day how business was and they are busy as hell.At least in this area a lot of people are stocking up on gas.Im sure at the end of the month, everybody is going to go down and fill up the tanks on their cars.Al Fuchino, what happens when everybody does that all at once? Can the retailers handle it?In Oregon, there are a lot less gas stations than there used to be:enviornmental regulations on tanks sent a lot of them out of business. I think a gas panic is likely to be one of the first signs of Y2k. In fact, it looks to me like its already starting tohappen quietly.Will that impact Gold? tedw (12/19/99; 11:24:00MDT - Msg ID:21324) Gas Shortage,Y2k, and Gold http://www.usagld.com Tedw in Grants Pass,Oregon.Ive noticed something interesting while shopping and maybe people in other parts of the country have noticed it too.You cant buy the large 5 gallon plastic gas containers at Wal-mart,Sears, or B--mart. They are sold out. At Wal-martthey told me they had just stocked the shelves, but when I went to look it was empty. The clerk walked away shaking his head, not understanding what was happening.I live in a rural area, and there is a local distributor whosends trucks out to deliver gas for farms and ranches in the area. We asked him the other day how business was and they are busy as hell.At least in this area a lot of people are stocking up on gas.Im sure at the end of the month, everybody is going to go down and fill up the tanks on their cars.Al Fuchino, what happens when everybody does that all at once? Can the retailers handle it?In Oregon, there are a lot less gas stations than there used to be:enviornmental regulations on tanks sent a lot of them out of business. I think a gas panic is likely to be one of the first signs of Y2k. In fact, it looks to me like its already starting tohappen quietly.Will that impact Gold? tedw (12/19/99; 11:23:57MDT - Msg ID:21323) Gas Shortage,Y2k, and Gold http://www.usagld.com Tedw in Grants Pass,Oregon.Ive noticed something interesting while shopping and maybe people in other parts of the country have noticed it too.You cant buy the large 5 gallon plastic gas containers at Wal-mart,Sears, or B--mart. They are sold out. At Wal-martthey told me they had just stocked the shelves, but when I went to look it was empty. The clerk walked away shaking his head, not understanding what was happening.I live in a rural area, and there is a local distributor whosends trucks out to deliver gas for farms and ranches in the area. We asked him the other day how business was and they are busy as hell.At least in this area a lot of people are stocking up on gas.Im sure at the end of the month, everybody is going to go down and fill up the tanks on their cars.Al Fuchino, what happens when everybody does that all at once? Can the retailers handle it?In Oregon, there are a lot less gas stations than there used to be:enviornmental regulations on tanks sent a lot of them out of business. I think a gas panic is likely to be one of the first signs of Y2k. In fact, it looks to me like its already starting tohappen quietly.Will that impact Gold? CoBra(too) (12/19/99; 10:57:48MDT - Msg ID:21322) FOA's history of evolution of communication , maybe a little abbreviated, and oversimplified, though fundamentally true. I'm an occasional poster here, a gold bug since the early 70's, located 30km West of Vienna, Austria, where it's snowing for the last 24 hours (boding well for a white Christmas)and sometimes wish I would be able to take back some of my posts (maybe I'll feel the same about this one tomorrow?). Posts which have been emotionally released, where one's ego stands in the way of prechecking the informative content vs the immaterial sudden halfbaked ideas', we all some of the time feel the urge to release to the mostly unsuspecting "public". Yes, it's true, we gold bugs feel and have felt the pressure of slander, libel and even ridicule for too long . And, yes it hurts!, though we still stick to our beliefs and know our time will come and may have begun already; Even if we feel utterly deserted bythe latest actions of the POG, which on the other hand may be the overture - or else the last stand of the manipulators- before losing their grip.While climbing my own wall of worries, I'm getting increasingly convinced that a sea-change in conception of the goldilocks economy vs reality is well on its way.I would like to thank all posters and specifically MK and TC for the opportunity to learn so much and in a most civil way and wish all participants (and lurkers) to this grand and noble table round a very specialMERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY (not too many y2k glitches)and prosperous 2000.CB2- Bill (12/19/99; 10:06:26MDT - Msg ID:21321) Forgot to Add: Either way, I think Gold in in for one heck of a ride... paper or physical in Jan.... if not w/in the next two weeks. Bill (12/19/99; 10:01:06MDT - Msg ID:21320) The Scot Sounds like we had the same thoughts. I am also suprised at the stregth of the market now. I started watching it closly at about the same time. I believe one of two events will play itself and I am leaning toward the later. 1) The significant start of the crash will begin just before Jan 1st` as people rush to protect their capital. 2) The reason we have such stregth now is because our market seems to be a flight to security from the uncertain Y2K effects of the world markets. Assuming Y2K is not a major event, their will be a major shift as foriegn $ rushes from our market in Jan..... thus starting the crash.It's just MHO. We shall see. Good luck to everyone! Tomcat (12/19/99; 9:51:57MDT - Msg ID:21319) SteveH: Morphocycles Steve, thanks for this link. I found it very interesting. I liked the idea that human nature and group pessimism and optimism are a driving force. I seem to see these pess/opti cycles with individuals, companies, and industries. We currently see the optimism driving the internet industry. I have been away for a while and have not kept up with many of the posts. Could you help me a bit and refer me to an ORO post which shows how these ideas might fit in with how he sees the driving forces. Of course, if ORO could comment on this that would also be helpful. FOA (12/19/99; 9:25:05MDT - Msg ID:21318) Quality counts! ALL: Long ago society recognized the need to control "confrontation". The history of human behaviour demonstrated that "uncontrolled disagreement" always degenerated into it's lowest form of communication. War! Too avoid this, nation tribes responded with unwritten and unspoken "rules of engagement". Early on, during individual field negotiations, generals would position themselves so their opponent could clearly see the large forces that stood behind their words. In other words talk came first, and if the rules of talking did not allow some common ground, a ruthless slaughter would follow. After some bloodletting, they talked again. Time and death forced a maturity of sorts upon the worlds social skills. It became apparent that human existence along with trade and commerce required lawful conduct to be extended to lawful talk. Without this, the trading of coherent thought was lost at the slightest disagreement. Of course, there would always be some that required a "physical removal" because they did not wish to be part of these national, state or private rules of discussion. We witness this today on the internet. These "rules of engagement" marked the early stages of our progression to a "more civilized society". The rules were reworked many times and eventually became part of civil conduct on the individual level. Slowly, we created private person social rules and mores that limited just how far we could take a "verbal disagreement" without evoking physical force upon each other. In addition, police were authorized to stop people from using "the verb age of location" from creating a "hostile environment" disruptive to the common good of all. Yes, we have the right of "free speech" to say what we want "without slander", but we cannot say it anywhere one pleases if it breaks the rules of that location. We may not stand on an airport runway as we exercise our right. Highways (or freeways for the West coast), sea ports and railways are all governed by these same rules of the road that some would even think infringe on their free speech. Still, "majority law" and national law rules where and how loud we may talk. As an example, one may not use a radio transmitter so large that it blocks out all other waves, in an effort to make your point. Every "private" communication medium has rules and laws that govern how much we may "degenerate a conversation" before it creates a "hostile environment", causes "emotional pain" and eventually impedes the flow of discussion. Again, this action is in the "common good for all", in that it affords us the other right. "The right of free choice"! Because of this, we today may choose to meet at a "town hall" or a "local church",,,,, a "gun shop" or a "protest meeting",,,,,,a dinner club or a local bar", each with it's own "verbal contact rules". The law says a restaurant owner may remove a person for conducting himself "out of fashion" from traditional clientele. Today, the same majority law allows "private rules" to establish "private meeting sites" on the internet. As a people, we may "freely choose" to occupy our "place of discussion" in accordance to it's "owners rules". Indeed, the owner may fashion those rules in accordance to the clientele he may wish to attract. Using a business decision where demand creates the need, his "rules" can structure the product offered as the continued success of a site dictates. Be it at the "USAGOLD town hall" or somewhere in the back alley, our freedom of choice is not jeopardized. Nor is our free speech lost as we may go where the "level of hostile environment" meets our needs. To date, the incredible success of USAGOLD, indicates the demand and approval for the "private rules" and "private enforcement" that govern this site. Here we stand upon a stage and present our views to tens of thousands in the audience. An audience that packs the house and overflows into the streets to hear discussion of the logical progression of world events. Not the "slanderous" accusations of week minded children. My friends, we are on this stage before Centennial clients and mature adults of this world. They pay for their seat by offering their attention to our thoughts. Many have brought season tickets because the house rules create the format they seek. Thank YOU Mr. Michael Kosares for your "rules of engagement" and supporting our right to choose! FOAMore on gold later today. The Scot (12/19/99; 9:11:33MDT - Msg ID:21317) The next two weeks ? ? I became interested in physical Gold holding in mid 1999. My reasoning was, the balooning stock market surely could not continue through the new year. Not only because of the huge amount of investment from new traders but the uncertain effects of Y2K. I am amazed that it is still churning and going strong. Am I the only one who thinks it has to take a severe down-turn befor 1/1/00? I'm beginning to believe that I might have been wrong. Would appreciate other comments on the next two weeks. The Scot SteveH (12/19/99; 9:04:54MDT - Msg ID:21316) Repost www.kitco.com Date: Sun Dec 19 1999 10:27SDRer (Millenium Gold Pool ) ID#286249:Copyright © 1999 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved1961 1 November -- Gold Pool established ( members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, UK and Federal Reserve Bank of New York: France withdrew in June 1967 ) . Members would sell ( and later buy ) gold in the London market to maintain prices close to par in that market. 1968 17 March-- Gold Pool abolished and 2-tier market created. CENTRAL BANKS TRANSACT ONLY AMONG THEMSELVES AT OFFICIAL PRICE AND NEITHER BUY NOR SELL FROM LONDON OR ANY OTHER MARKET. Private sector, however, free to do what it likes, with floating gold price. London market re-opens 1 April and now fixing in US$ for first time. Circa 1997 --Gold Pool re-established ( members EMU, Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, BOJ, Bank of China, Bank of Malaysia, Bank of Jordan-- an alliance of Europe, Near East, Far East ) . Members would act in concert to counterbalance most egregious excesses of paper gold war …REAPPORTION gold reserves, establishing sound basis for gold unit of account. So, now we know "Who is buying?" {:- ) ) bbml SteveH (12/19/99; 9:03:58MDT - Msg ID:21315) Oro will like this link http://www.morphocycles.com/ repost -- "If money isn't the driving force behind economic activity then what is? Bethmann holds that economic activity is the result of human behavior. Humans act to changing expectations about future prices. If consumers and producers expect future prices to be higher they will start buying and investing immediately. To finance the purchases they need money which they already have or which they have to borrow. Higher expected future prices makes borrowing today cheaper than tomorrow so more money is being issued. This causes a build up of cheap debt. These are the typical characteristics of what Bethmann calls a Haste Economy overconsumption): you'd better act today because tomorrow will bring more expensive prices.""If consumers and producers on the other hand expect future prices to be lower they will postpone their purchases. You'd be better off waiting causing a Wait Economy (underconsumption): tomorrow will be cheaper than today. If you are unlucky the huge amounts of cheap debt accumulated during a haste economy have to be paid back during a wait economy at a higher price. Falling prices (increasing the buying power of money) makes paying back loans more expensive. By swapping the old debt for new debt it's possible to relieve the debt burden but only temporary. Due to imploding economic activity during the final years of a wait economy the debt burden becomes too heavy causing chain bankruptcies." The Scot (12/19/99; 9:02:43MDT - Msg ID:21314) Location San Antonio, Texas USA SteveH (12/19/99; 8:52:47MDT - Msg ID:21313) Comment Nickel62,I agree that the information here is ahead of its time. In fact, it is so far ahead that I take grief from coworkers whom I no longer share information with as it has turned out that it is best for everyone. To be able to act on early information bespeaks to a timing issue that has been discussed before. I believe we agreed that "it is better to be a year (or more) early than a day late." That attitude, however, has kept many of us out of the crazy dot.com euphoria (and profits). I anticipate that we will also be kept out of the dot.com losses that ultimately will follow. But then many of us have been hit with the same losses in the gold sector and thus our anger and despise for the likes of the type of analyst below. Finally, the information that is shared and built upon here (as we really do segway? upon information and build certain threads until they can't be built anymore)does prove to be prescient. Let me explain -- keep in mind the dangers of dis-information though. I have felt and actually disappointed from an analytical viewpoint when longer bond yields and oil loose ground. In other words, I conclude that if what we discuss has merit then these two acts (at least) must occur over the short to mid-term (maybe longer too). I further look for the Euro to gain strength, the dollar to loose way, and gold ultimately to rise. I see gold going last. I see the long-term bond yields ultimately telling dot.coms the jig is up. Finally, I look for coroboration in news such as the China gold for citizen deal, Washington agreement and so forth to add further credence to our views. These are the fractal events that tell the story that analysts such as Arnold, by not telling us too, interest's lie in another camp. How does one profit personally from such shared learning? My only true answer to that is wisdom, which is knowledge and knowing what to do about that knowledge. It appears to be that simple. Chicken man (12/19/99; 8:41:34MDT - Msg ID:21312) ORO @ BIS's "unit of acccounting" http://www.bis.org/ Click on publications.....download the annual report.....check out page with "profit & loss"...... the unit of accounting is gold franc......1GF=.29032258 grames fine gold......dividends are paid in GF.......US$ are converted to gold @ 208 oz.......BOE new value of gold @ 209....hmmmmmmA little odd way of "keeping books" to say the least...! nickel62 (12/19/99; 8:28:31MDT - Msg ID:21311) SteveH I agree with your assessment of Ted Arnold 100%! I spent twenty years in the institutional money management business working with analysts like Mr. Arnold and I wouldn't trust most of them as far as I could throw them.I remember Mr. Arnold's collegue Clarence Morrison telling me in 1995 how Bre-X gold was definitely there he had been hung from the firm's helicopter and had reached his hand out and touched the veins himself.As we all know now the only one who was touched was me for even considering to listen to such B.S..There are a few good analysts but the vast majority on Wall Street have long ago had their objectivity destroyed by an incentive system that pays you to call your own trading desk first when you actually learn something of importance.The client's interests be damned is not the exception. It has become the norm.I think all of us know that the analyst reports provided to the institutional community (of which I am still part)if they contain anything new it is generally to serve the interests of investment banking clients or the firm itself.It provides us with a tremendous advantage on sights like this though because the large pools of money are lagging behind us in our information flow. As odd as that may sound it is often true. the reason that it is true is because when an analyst has something new he will broker it to a few select clients so that he can appear useful and get his firm paid for the information by being given more commission busines. If he broadly disseminated the information even to his top fifty clients he would not get the same "kick" that his whispering of insider information gets him.Is a market based on inside motives and secret alliances possible in this type of enviroment. You bet it is and that is why many of the people who most strongly believe that the gold market is being manipulated are those of us who have been investing in it for long enough to know we are getting the shaft.Pun intended. SteveH (12/19/99; 7:44:35MDT - Msg ID:21310) Now think about this Ted Arnold below is quoted as seeing a turn around but doesn't look to see any great shake up in gold. Now, if this guy is a true gold expert and doesn't know about the true shortage of gold and the gasping short position on the market, the he isn't much of an expert then, is he? Or, as I said, he has an Agenda and doesn't let on that he knows all hell could break loose and send gold to new heights. Obviously, if he knows that and says what he did then he is protecting his own or someone else's interests by not talking the true potential of the market. Why? SteveH (12/19/99; 7:40:50MDT - Msg ID:21309) Repost www.kitco.com Arnold has an Agenda (now I wonder what camp he is from? BIS/EURO or $/IMF)Date: Sun Dec 19 1999 06:46nomercy (Ted Arnold changes his tune) ID#207145:Copyright © 1999 nomercy/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedGold Seen Climbing in 2000 After Central Banks Agree Not to Flood Market By Mark Deen Gold Seen Climbing in 2000 as Bank Sales End: Review & Outlook London, Dec. 19 ( Bloomberg ) -- Gold, which has fallen a third in value since 1995, faces its best prospects in years because an agreement among 15 European central banks has ended concern their 16,000 tons of the metal may flood the market at any moment. The accord, unveiled Sept. 26 in Washington by European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, commits Switzerland, Sweden, the U.K. and the 11 countries that have adopted the euro currency to limit sales to those already planned for five years. In the last three years, gold lurched lower as countries such as Belgium and the U.K. announced sales that fed concern European governments wanted to unload all their gold -- equivalent to six years of global mine output. So the pact to restrict sales helped gold bounce back from a 20-year low of $251.95 an ounce in August. ``The frantic free-fall seen before the Washington accord is over,'' said Ted Arnold, an analyst at Prudential Bache. Gold for immediate delivery closed Friday at $283.60 an ounce. This is the first December in four years that speculators have more bets on rising than on falling prices on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A Bloomberg survey of nine analysts gave an average price forecast of $302 an ounce in 2000, up from the $278 an ounce gold has averaged so far in 1999. For Arnold, the rally hardly means gold is about to recover to its January 1996 high of $418 an ounce, let alone return the $850 an ounce it reached in early 1980. The steady drip of metal from central banks will continue, albeit at a slower pace. The Netherlands said Dec. 6 it will sell 300 metric tons over the next five years, while the U.K. and Switzerland will sell more than 1,600 tons. All three countries are part of the Washington agreement. Easing Concern ``The Dutch announcement just reminds the market once again that central banks can't wait to get rid of their gold, and will do if they can,'' Arnold said. Still, the accord removes concern that the world's biggest gold owners may announce more unexpected sales when economic growth is buoying demand. Worldwide, gold demand has exceeded the amount dug out of mines each year for a decade, with much of the difference being made up by central bank supply. In 1998, demand for gold from jewelers, makers of coins, electronics and other users, was 3,709 metric tons, 45 percent more than mines produced, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services, a London-based consulting company. ``Jewelry demand is still near record levels, and production will be flat to lower'' in 2000, said Nick Goodwin, who started managing a new gold equities fund for Bahamas-based Magnum Global Investments Ltd. in October. ``Gold is still very cheap -- the market may find that there is a shortage.'' Some countries outside the accord may fill that gap. Malaysia in August sold 37 tons, almost half its reserves, according to the International Monetary Fund, and Kuwait said it will start lending some of its reserves. That also increases supply. Fed Tacitly Agrees Yet, analysts estimate 85 percent of all gold held by government institutions is either covered by the agreement or won't be sold. The IMF reversed an earlier plan to sell some of its gold, and European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg indicated the U.S. Federal Reserve, the world's largest gold holder, tacitly agreed to abide by the European plan. ``Other central banks might be encouraged to sell, but they are mostly small, and when you only have 70 to 80 tons, do you really want to let it all go?'' Goodwin said. ``It's quite a different thing from the big European countries that have several thousand tons.'' Other analysts are more cautious because the central bank accord doesn't spell out which institutions will sell or when. ``So much stock has been put in the agreement that anything seen to be veering away from it could have a big impact on the market,'' said Kamal Naqvi, an analyst at Macquarie Equities in London. ``The deal isn't quite as specific about what is being sold as some people think.'' In short, gold trading isn't for the faint at heart. The metal jumped from $251.95 an ounce Aug. 26, to $340.50 an ounce Oct. 5 in 1999. Most analysts surveyed said they expect the metal to track a similarly wide range in 2000. NORTH OF 49 (12/19/99; 7:11:00MDT - Msg ID:21308) More iron than you think, Harry http://www2.cat.com/cgi-bin/frameset.pl?nav=products&content=/products/equipment/equipment.html&target=_top&title=Caterpillar%20-%20Products%20-%20Equipment D9R (without attachments) 107,667 pounds (53.8 tons). They are really, really big. Might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb--D11R weighs in at 239,550 pounds (119.77 tons). As Croc Dundee would say "Now THAT'S a dozer!"No49PS- I see you're "norther" than me now! nickel62 (12/19/99; 6:35:55MDT - Msg ID:21307) Black Blade I found your post about the current limits on gold production due to price very interesting. One of the thoughts that has concerned me about the future value of gold has been the long term production outlook and the chance that the market could be flooded in the future with new low cost gold production from the newer open pit and heap leaching technologies being applied to the African ,South American and Asian discoveries through the wonders of modern financial magic. Your post shows the possibility of this at the same time that it clearly points out that the current gold price,around $350/ounce when the article was written is not high enough to continue to grow production at even the low 2% rate of historical increse. Thank You for your insight. Number Six (12/19/99; 6:34:49MDT - Msg ID:21306) Location location location :o) Denver, USA nickel62 (12/19/99; 6:28:49MDT - Msg ID:21305) How diverse is our group geographically? If everyone could mention where they are from occassionally I think it would help all of us to understand the true bredth of the opinions we seem to share. I am from Baltimore on the east coast of the USA.Thanks nickel62 (12/19/99; 6:26:44MDT - Msg ID:21304) SteveH I found your post on the legalization very interesting. Surely if I was in China I would be storing a large portion of my wealth in gold rather thatn the unconvertible local currency.I hope several hundred Chinese agree with me. I wonder if the newly enlightened Chinese government is reacting to the ability of the Korean governmant to call up substantial foreign exchange reserves by requesting that the Korean population exchange their personal gold for the Korean currency at the bottom of their financial crisis in 1987. HLime (12/19/99; 4:36:50MDT - Msg ID:21303) Black Blade Please note this: For once Harry is on the side of the government. Theyhave their job cut out for em. They were lucky lately but their luck maynot last. You do not need explosives to do damage. Anyone with $1000and an Alaskan drivers license could cut the trans Alaskan pipeline. Justrent a D9 and have it delivered to 9 mile Steese. Fire it up, point it atthe uprights on the pipeline, and jump off. Hell last summer you would ofnot even had to rent one. Across the road from the Pipeline view area theywere leveling some tailings for another tourist trap. Each day when I wentto the claim that D8 just sat there. You do not need keys to start a dozer,just hot wire the injector pump and starter and you have 30,000 poundsof rumbling mean ugly steel. Only a cliff or swamp can stop it.Harry HLime (12/19/99; 4:14:28MDT - Msg ID:21302) More Y2K realism Peter I think your friend has so much Nytol in her eggnog that she does notrealize that Infomagic has pissed in it. I admire hope and optimism, but theywill kill you when misplaced. She even acknowledged the logic in Info's postbut can only counter with touchy feelies. When you entire life style andall its comforts are threatened it is just a defense mechanism to deny whatmay be.Get this straight. We have spent the last 30 years replacing people withmachines. We can not go back to manual cuz the people that could do itmanually have died, retired, or moved on. Is there a manual work a roundwith trained people? We are clever but no match for many systems going teats up at the same time.We at best will lose 30 years of efficiency gains and tumble into a DEPRESSION.We are not the same people that we were in the thirties. There will be socialchaos when the bread and circus ends.I am not speaking off the cuff. I have a BS in computer science, flew computersin the USAF, and until my life style change earlier this year was a Data BaseAdministrator. You can tell her that Y2K is Darwinism at work.Harry SteveH (12/19/99; 3:04:48MDT - Msg ID:21301) Chines allows its citizens to purchase gold www.kitco.com Date: Sun Dec 19 1999 03:474bear (http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/stories/rael-19dec1999-119.htm) ID#199188:Copyright © 1999 4bear/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedChina authorises sale of gold bars China has authorised the sale of gold bars to the public for the first time since the Communist Party came to power in 1949. Individuals are now permitted to buy gold bars "for savings and investment". After the communists came to power, they banned citizens from buying, selling or owning gold in any form other than jewellery. Officials describe the new move as a bold step forward, towards the opening of the gold market. China is currently the world's fifth biggest gold producer. SteveH (12/19/99; 2:44:09MDT - Msg ID:21300) Privateer on Posting http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html All webmasters please read. Peter Asher (12/19/99; 1:43:29MDT - Msg ID:21299) The positive veiwpoint I've been away from home lately. I referred Robin to the Cory Hamasaki, Dooms Day post, #20875 & 6 -- This was her response. "I have read similar things. It sounds very logical. But I do not think he knows all the factors. I know he says this doesn't matter and that doesn't matter and so forth. I just don't think he leaves room for Bright Ideas.I don't think he considers the possibility that smart people will solve theproblem in a way he does not anticipate.Note how he compares us to deer. And he speaks of the tendency of population to become reduced, because it cannot be supported by its environment in those numbers. This reminds me of people who are afraid of over-population. They treat people too much like just another species -like dinosaurs. But we are intelligent!! And that can make all the difference.Man has the ability to create miracles. But I agree, things will change. Don't let this kind of thing get you depressed. Remember, the Merchants of Chaos are hard at work right now. We need to depend on miracles, because miracles are really normal products of spiritual beings.Of one thing I am certain. There will be no room in this new millennium for hate. We will need to treat people as brothers and sisters sharing this planet so that we can solve problems as a group, as mankind. We will need to remember that man is basically good, and we will need to grant beingness by addressing our neighbor as his better self We will need to do these things --- not to be kind or nice or politically correct, but in order to survive. Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
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