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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/18/2006 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Sundeck (3/18/06; 22:33:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 142570) Enough Euros? @Sir Smeagol ref # 142567Small correction, if I may....that quote re "enough euros" was from Sir contrarian's #142564, I think, not Sundeck's #142555Sir contrarian was himself quoting someone else...a Mr Cook?Quotes within quotes within quotes...gets confusing...:-( Goldilox (3/18/06; 22:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 142569) Not enough Euros in Circulation for the bourse? Sure sounds like hogwash to me, as the Europeans currently have to trade Euros for dollars before oil purchases. Where the heck are they getting the Euros they purchase the dollars with?One might suspect they are just using dollar credits from trade surplus, but one wonders how many Euro nations have large enough trade surplus to completely fund their energy needs?The euro is expandable if need be, so I don't buy the premise. Goldilox (3/18/06; 22:17:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 142568) Vaporization systems @ Flatliner,There was another one posted a few days back, and the tribulations of the inventor sounded horrendous. Smeagol (3/18/06; 21:35:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 142567) Not enough Euros? From Ssir Sundeck's msg#: 142555:"As for trading oil in euros, he said the Iranians likely would find it very difficult, at least in the next several years. "Basically, there aren't enough euros in circulation, and nor are there likely to be," he said."Sss...why would there need to ne more, precious? We guesses that the value of the Euro, and its GOLDen reserve backing, will jusst have to rise to meet the demand!S. Black Blade (3/18/06; 20:16:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142566) We Were Warned http://p100.ezboard.com/fpeakoilpetroleumandpreciousmetalsfrm10.showMessage?topicID=4592.topic There is a fairly decent program on CNN tonight outlining some scenarios that could change our way of life if oil supply is disrupted. We are on the long slide downward now in regard to energy. I saw the first showing tonight and a repeat showing is slated for tonight (11 pm eastern) and a repeat showing tomorrow night. (actually it should have encompassed all energy supply). The Discovery channel will have a month long series called "The Perfect Disaster" starting tomorrow night and showing every Sunday through mid April. These series are probably worst case scenarios but worth consideration. they are essentially focussed on natural disasters including a worst case scenario if a massive solar flare strikes earth at the right angle and right polarity disrupting communications and causing blackouts that last months if not years.Recently Sec. Levin suggested that the mutating Bird Flu could be an extreme disaster that may have people homebound for months and recommended the usual same advice I constantly give here - at least about a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. The economic fall out of course makes it imperative that we have Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance" to provide a "golden lifeboat" to sail over stormy economic seas. In short, the "We Were Warned" showing on CNN tonight and tomorrow night may be worth your time. It is not as dramatic as the FX showing called "Oil Storm" from late last year. The "The Perfect Disaster" series may also be worthwhile although I have not reviewed it (no one has because it has not been shown). As usual my usual advice not necessarily based on natural disasters, pandemics and terrorism, but on any unforeseen economic disruption that can effect one's family life (including longterm illness or simply getting laid off for example): "Get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver as "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities to last several months'".- Black Blade Sundeck (3/18/06; 19:18:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 142565) Societal and economic change, energy and money A few quick comments/responses on Sunday morning in Oz…@Boilermaker #142556- Recessions are a kind of "mini-collapse". Total failure? I think not (and hope not). The US system (social, economic) is an adaptive system, "flowing" wherever circumstances permit or encourage. There are many examples of such large systems regaining recognisable identity after major upheavals (Japan and Germany after WWII; Great Britain after the folding of the British Empire after WWI – which is still in progress). On the other hand, a major loss of identity can occur (Western Roman Empire leading to the "Dark Ages" in Europe), never to be regained.@Goldilox #142557- Governments sometimes need to tread on the toes (or completely behead) some "private" corporations and interests for the long-term well-being of the people. However (democratic) governments cannot suppress technology and ideas very effectively. Whether the "best" ideas and technologies are eventually developed, and accepted, probably depends more on the interplay between proponents and antagonists (commercial and otherwise) of such ideas and technologies...or upon mere chance! Of course, governments can influence the spectrum of uptake of ideas and technologies by legislation, regulation, fiscal appropriation and "mental massaging" of the people.- Corporate tails wagging government dogs too vigorously (or at will) certainly can be a problem, since it is then that the people get whatever is profitable for the corporations rather than what is in the long-term interests of the people.- Militaries in the western world (and elsewhere) are highly trained, highly skilled, highly disciplined, very capable and very loyal. They are in the position of having to do the government's bidding no matter what; even when many know that the government's request is really quite stupid. (There is a limit to the extent that the military will go in this regard...at least amongst some military personnel. But that limit is often over-ridden by various things.) Unfortunately, incompetent, egotistical or threatened governments sometimes co-opt their militaries into pursuing inglorious campaigns by exploiting the "better qualities" that have been inculcated into the military ranks.- Drug and alcohol use and abuse, to the extent that it exists, is more likely to be symptom rather than cause of any particular condition that manifests in either the military or civilian populace at large.@Flatliner #142559- Energy and money are widely miss-understood. Energy is primal...since nothing happens without the transfer of energy from a usable form (in the human sense) to a less-usable form. Like energy, money helps to make things happen (in the human world), but it can also be created and destroyed, which energy cannot. - Whether energy is "cheap" or "expensive" is confused by the dollar intermediary. If energy could be easily and effectively transferred to those who use it, for one purpose or another, by a "barter-like" mechanism, then we might readily see whether it is appropriately valued by virtue of the products and services that arise from different quarters. However, the insertion of a currency intermediary (like the dollar) disguises the true value of available energy sources...at least for a while. Since the US dollar is large in concept, intrudes broadly into world affairs, and is strongly defended, it tends to "warp" any instantly recognisable measure of the value of different forms of energy. Resetting the "value of energy" involves resetting the value of the dollar. So I think I would agree with your thrust.Cheers:-) contrarian (3/18/06; 19:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142564) Sundeck msg#: 142555 I second that! Best commentary and appraisal of the overall situation I have read in months. Re your "on and off again" comment, I agree as it now appears, from what I've read that the Iranian Oil Bourse has been "postponed" until April (or never?). Also, the idea that Euros could replace dollar is questionable because there's aren't enough Euros in circulation.Please see http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_14125.shtml"Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year....As for trading oil in euros, he said the Iranians likely would find it very difficult, at least in the next several years. "Basically, there aren't enough euros in circulation, and nor are there likely to be," he said.Mr. Cook cited a recent article on Hong Kong-based Asia Times Online by William Engdahl, who specializes in the geopolitics of oil. 'For the euro to begin to challenge the reserve role of the U.S. dollar, a virtual revolution in policy would have to take place in Euroland," Mr. Engdahl wrote. "First the European Central Bank . . . would have to surrender power to elected legislators. It would then have to turn on the printing presses and print euros like there was no tomorrow.'"This also confirms what Jim Willie predicted on March 2 (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2006/0302.html): As a preface, the Iranian Oil Exchange will not set up shop in March 2006. The exchange for Central Asian energy product sale, will not go into operation, will not come to pass, at least not anytime soon, and certainly not this month. My reliable sources traceable to London tell me that Iranian mullahs and clergy entrenched in high office have decided they do not wish to relinquish their corrupt siphon from vast energy sales into their personal accounts. Some old leaders have stolen and wish to continue to steal from their people, from their national energy deposit treasure. The launch of the Iranian Oil Exchange (IOX) will not succumb to Western pressure, will not back off from a challenge to the Petro-Dollar. The IOX will not happen because certain influential Moslem Iranian leaders wish to continue their pilferage, still brisk as each day passes. A formal exchange would force their ruling class to abide by rules of law, official transparency requirements, and that aint gonna happen. Some cock & bull story will be forthcoming as to feasibility or prepared facilities or whatever, so as to save face. To be sure, Iran will continue to sell energy products, and will likely not store the proceeds from those sales in USDollar denominated securities. The diversion away from US$-based assets will continue."It's like the term "vaporware" in the software industry--new software versions that are announced/marketed (and sometimes never produced) to jinx the competition.Perhaps the bourse planners also got cold feet from the wide dissemination of the Europe 2020 reports predicting a worldwide policital, economic, and financial crisis starting week of March 20-26:http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htmhttp://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150306.htmPersonally, I think the dollar will be defended till its dying day, and there won't be a precipitous collapse at least this year, but a gradual deterioration. Would be interested to hear what others think, especially that for now, it appears the oil bourse is off. Ned (3/18/06; 16:18:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 142563) Here's a BEAUT !!! http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article12381.htm A must read if you are looking at the BIG picture. The Iraq war, Peak Oil, the fading dollar, "end of civilization", all wrapped into one :"People look at Bush's invasion of Iraq and see a miserable failure. But a failure to do what? Democratize Iraq? Eliminate Iraq's WMD arsenal? Reduce global terrorism? If those were, in fact, the reasons for invading Iraq, then the invasion would have to be classified as a failure. But what if the real reason was to secure Iraq's oil supplies, perhaps not for immediate use, and perhaps not even for use by the United States? Then the invasion of Iraq would have to be judged a success, a "mission accomplished," so to speak."....and...."Now, I'm just one person. And I've been closely studying economic, environmental, and energy issues for only a few years. And I'm no expert. Yet I've come to the conclusion – and I don't want to be a "Chicken Little" here – that civilization as we have known it for the last century is doomed. Our wasteful manner of living – heck, the sheer size of our human population – is unsustainable. Everywhere you look you can see signs of strain on the Earth, from spreading pollution of the air, water, and land, to disappearance of life in the seas, to depletion of natural resources. Something's got to give. Things simply cannot continue as they have."...and the punchline...."The End of Money""Unfortunately, what we didn't realize at the time was that we would never again have it so good. The 1970s represented a "tipping point," to use the popular vernacular, for the American Dream. That was when globalization really started to take off and when the serious decline of American industry began, the steel and auto industries being among the first casualties. Interestingly, the 1970s was also the decade of peak oil production in the United States, after which point we became increasingly reliant on imported oil, which greased our downward slide. What I didn't realize until writing this was how crucial a role President Nixon played in creating this tipping point. Nixon opened the door to trade with China, a major player in today's globalized economy. Nixon disassociated the U.S. dollar from gold, facilitating the destruction of wealth through unrelenting devaluation of the dollar."....BINGO !!! Let's repeat that one again !!"...Nixon disassociated the U.S. dollar from gold, facilitating the destruction of wealth through unrelenting devaluation of the dollar."Link attached... Flatliner (3/18/06; 14:06:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 142562) vapor systems http://www.fuelvapors.com/ Fun reading today. I'm sure the world would welcome such a device with open arms. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/18/06; 13:20:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 142561) Is gold investment new to you? http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/starter.html Ned (3/18/06; 11:56:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 142560) Iranian Oil Bourse.....delayed for now.....maybe. Euros for oil delayed? Probably not for long. Great thread, thanks to Sundeck/Flatliner/Goldi.I often think of my wife and her 5 siblings. One of the older brothers is always in financial trouble. He always manages to 'horn-swaggle' the family into a loan (he interprets loans as 'gifts'). "Lend me a couple thousand until I get settled", "I need a thousand bucks until I get organized" are standard lines. The "beggar-thy-family" always works, I admit he is smooth.So I wonder when the family is going to have enough, I beg my wife to cut him off, "charity begins at home" is my line when the discussion gets a little heated.So is there any similarity to the great U.S. deficit(s)? The fiscal shortfall was 5% a year or two ago, it hit 6% and 6 1/2, nothing thought it could continue. I believe it may have been Roach that mentioned it has hit 7% of GDP. When will it end? When does the "beggar-thy-neighbor" end? One, 1.5 and 2 billion a day. Now I heard recently almost 2.5 BILLION a day. It's out of control. I found a wicked post earlier today, I'll be back........ Flatliner (3/18/06; 11:29:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 142559) @Sundeck Building upon your categories, would one be correct in saying that we have a political situation where energy is controlled for the service of money. It seems that; he who has access to the cheapest energy is the one that makes the greatest profit and that profit buys them more control. It will be interesting to see if this circular process has a short in it somewhere. I am sure we will all see given time. Goldilox (3/18/06; 10:55:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 142558) correction "siilar" S/B "similar" Goldilox (3/18/06; 09:07:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 142557) "Appraisal" @ Boilermaker and Sundeck,A fair appraisal, true.A few siilar observations.1) While I agree on most fronts, my assessment of the poitical is that the US is suffering from "withdrawal symptoms". Years of covert drug and arms trade and overt alcohol abuse, for which TPTB are completely complicit, have taken a huge social toll. Another schizoid manifestation is "intellegence agencies" that double as illegal revenue centers for arms and drug trades. Politicians jawbone about drug problems and remove a few token small dealers from circulation, but the main supply lines remain intact because they are politically "connected". On the arms front, they publicly decry the very potentates they arm for personal profit.2) Uncontrolled immigration, another schizoid policy, concerns many people on the security front, but remains a powerful labor tool for the battle against inflation by the corporate oligarchs.3) Technology, often touted as the best possible tool for evolutionary solutions, is stifled and minimized so that's its potential for disrupting current monoplies is held in check. Serious exploration into alternatives is never well funded, and often suffers public derision.Truly schizoid leadership, indeed, headed by a bunch whose own drug and alcohol history is poorly documented and sometimes suspect. On top of that, leadership at government supply firms often joke that their best negotiators are the ones who can "drink a general under the table".The sad irony is that the liberal, progressive "peace movement" of the 60's fell prey to the same drug and alcohol affinity that now plagues the "war camps" of the far right, who mask their addiction issues in the robes of orthodoxy.I share Boilermaker's concern that wake-up may require some level of collapse, but sadly, outside the hallowed halls of Wall St, that collapse is already apparent to many, who are just waiting for the "Day of Financial Reckoning." Boilermaker (3/18/06; 06:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 142556) Sundeck msg#: 142555 Excellent appraisal sir! I have become convinced that only the total failure of the US economy can lead to the emergence of sensible government.Thanks,Boilermaker Sundeck (3/18/06; 00:40:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142555) Iran oil exchange, the US and the dollar Ref Flatliner #142545As time goes by, the global monetary situation, energy situation and political situation appear to be becoming more confused. Part of this, I suspect, is because the US is now no longer such a credible leader in any of these three domains as it once was:1. Energy. Sixty years ago, US domestic oil supply was pivotal in the allied victories in both Europe and the Pacific campaignes. After WWII, the US "won the peace" by its actions in assisting to rebuild Europe and Japan, and acting as the counterweight to the USSR; leading to 60 years of relative international stability underpinned by "easy energy". Now, the US is becoming energy-starved, with its enormous infrastructure and social and cultural paradigm "hooked" on oil...but now much of the oil must come from abroad and from regions where the US is not particularly held in very high esteem.2. Political situation. A domestically "very savvy" Administration successfully wormed its way to power for two terms on emotive domestic agendas and hubris. Unfortunately, internationally, the Bush Administration has probably been the worst America has ever had. International political capital has been burned and trampled on several fronts. Now an aimless, schizophrenic, internationally and domestically "lame-duck" administration wobbles along looking for ways to save face, on the one hand, and exert initiative and force on the other. Other international governments are put in the position of having to work with this deranged giant while knowing that it is essentially floundering around. No other nation, or group of nations, is able to "take the lead" while-ever the US refuses to relinquish it, but it seems to me that headless chickens have more sense of direction than has the Bush Administration at present.3. Monetary. The US is caught in the dilemma of wanting a "strong" currency on one hand to preserve its internationally dominant monetary and financial position ("dollar hegemony"), earned in WWII (??) and maintained in one form or another for the last sixty years. On the other hand, the US wants its currency to be "weaker" so that it can better balance its books with its international competitors. Whilever oil and commodities and other international trade are invoiced in US dollars, the US currency cannot weaken "sensibly" because it is expected to serve two purposes that are in conflict: (a) settle international trade arrangements, leading to the international demand for and the subsequent creation of dollars, and a "value level", that have nothing to do with internal domestic requirements or state of the domestic economy, and (b) act as a domestic currency for internal trade and, via normal exchange, for external purchases. If function (a) wasn't required, then the US dollar would be just like any other domestic currency and would likely weaken in line with the pressures imposed by the twin deficits. But external demand for the dollar keeps it "strong". So, in addition to The Administration being schizophrenic in its intentions and desires, the dollar itself is similarly afflicted.I suspect that these three broad factors are leading to the on-again, off-again proposals and "actions" by various countries; like the Iranian Oil Bourse, Russian and Norwegian suggestions of oil bourses, Iranian enrichment of uranium on Russian soil. There is "cheekiness", coupled with uncertainty and caution amongst many players as the US giant, once so purposeful and credible and imposing, now teters around in a somewhat confused state.I think these three factors are also leading to the trends by countries' central banks to move more towards gold and the Euro for reserves. There has been enormous "investment" in the dollar over the years...not just investment in the usual sense, but "dependence" upon the dollar's machinery and its role in providing a kind of "gradually inflating stability" in international monetary affairs. This is becoming "lumpy", but no-one wants the dollar's demise demise to happen too quickly...while the US somehow wants to have its cake and eat it as well.These three factors also accentuate, and to some extent permit, the "rise of China", the resurgence of India and the merging consortium of nations in South America.The US has done a lot of "heavy lifting" over the years, militarily, culturally, economically, financially...but even giants eventually grow tired. It is perhaps ironic, and unfortunate, that the US, at this time, has an Aministration that is so ill-suited to the demands of the era...when the US is so clearly at the cross-roads of history and in need of sensitive re-alignment to the new world order. FWIW:-) ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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