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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/18/2006 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Goldilox (1/18/06; 23:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 140623) Stating the obvious Spikedog,You have put into a handful of words the entire breadth of the goldbugs' mantra.When gubmints speak out of their neck, derivatives make up 90% of the "markets," and none of the published data adds up, what better answer can there be than "Perhaps, it would be best if we all became our own reserve"Your simplicity is laudable!Today, Apple announced earnings and revenue that anihilated street estimates and it bought them a hefty 9% haircut. If companies that grow and make money "producing things" don't excite investors, then just what ARE they looking for?The approaching day of financial reckoning is weighing heavily on the paper tigers. Smeagol (1/18/06; 21:24:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140622) It's bouncing right back... ...above USD 550. Go Houndses!S. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/18/06; 20:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 140621) FREE Gold Information Packet... http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Smeagol (1/18/06; 20:37:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 140620) oopssy... that'ss BreNNer, not BreMMer -don't quote us either! (cackle)S. Smeagol (1/18/06; 20:34:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 140619) Did we hear a requesst for The Unquotable Mr. Reuven Bremmer? http://www.sortweb.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2231_brenner.pdf Ssir Toolie, here is that link, precious."The U.S. Dollar and Prosperity: Accidents Waiting to Happen" Toolie (1/18/06; 19:44:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 140618) "free trade" & the gold standard http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5368 Smeagol posted a link to an article about a month ago, written by Bremmer (?) (the unquotable Mr., Bremmer). I can't seem to find it, but was struck by the fact that it was a speech prepared for the CATO institute. IMO, the think tank that propels the "free trade" agenda in DC. What struck me about the speech was the tone, it wasn't the ‘green fields and blue sky’ talk that has been such a large part of CATO's ‘free trade’ advocacy. Instead, it offered superficial salve for the heat that some of the ‘free trade’ supporting politicos have been experiencing. The other thing that was out of place about it was, that is the first time in a very long time that I had seen the gold standard referenced in a CATO document. I seems that they have chosen not to discuss the gold standard much since ‘free trade’ had gotten traction. Prior to that it was staple of their ideology.Below, further salve, and excuse making...Snip: When assessing the performance of the international monetary system, one is tempted to paraphrase Winston Churchill on democracy: The system of flexible exchange rates is the worst possible one, except for all the others. Critics of the current system correctly point out the costs imposed on the economy by the swings that have occurred in the value of the dollar. For instance, U.S. exporters made painful adjustments when the dollar strengthened between 1997 and 2002, resulting in considerable economic distress for stockholders, workers, and communities across the country. ....Now there has been a shift at the margin in the attractiveness of investment in Asia. Not U.S. weakness, but China's impressive strength is driving that shift. The pre-World War I classical gold standard operated with fixed exchange rates and economies experienced large capital flows. The international economy also saw relatively free movement of people across borders. War and the rise of totalitarian nation-states put a damper on both. ....A return to a world of peace, free trade, and prosperity would be the best of all worlds. A system of fixed exchange rates might be a byproduct of a return to a liberal international economic order. In the meantime, flexible rates facilitate the adjustment to the global economic changes we confront. (end article) Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr. (the author) is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former vice president and economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (end credits)Conclusion: Some folks in DC very much expect a return to the gold standard.(I can hear Townie now: Toolie, you want freegold, not the gold standard! So i'll respond in advance: Since when does what I want matter?) :-) USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/18/06; 19:24:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140617) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.WEDNESDAY Market ExcerptsGold sees profit taking as Tokyo stocks crashJanuary 18 (from Reuters) -- At the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, February gold futures sank $9.80 to end at $544.50 on Wednesday on investor and fund selling as some players ditched positions to lock in profits from recent 25-year highs after a fall in Tokyo metal prices overnight.Dealers said futures extended a pullback from the prior day after Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) gold tumbled on heavy selling timed to meet margin calls amid a drop in the Japanese stock market. [see link or story below] The Nikkei share average fell 3 percent Wednesday in a broad sell-off."This is all Tokyo profit taking. It is a classic thing: as their stock market dumps, they can't sell their stocks so they have to get out of whatever they're long in, and obviously they're long gold," said a long-time COMEX gold trader.Japanese investors had been big boosters of gold in the last few months as many viewed the precious metals as a preferred asset to hold amid currency weakness.But the market has become increasingly volatile since Tokyo gold margins were raised, prompting occasional long liquidation by some funds and speculators.However, analysts' sentiment on gold remained mainly upbeat and they said it could soon rebound. Gold is up 4.9 percent in 2006, after rising 18 percent last year....Selling Stampede Shuts Down Tokyo Stock MarketA flood of sell orders forced the Tokyo stock exchange to close early as investors stampeded from the world's second-largest share market on Wednesday, spooked by fall-out from an investigation into a high-flying Internet firm. The company is suspected of fudging financial reports and spreading false information to boost its share price....[The] sell-off has wiped out more than $300 billion in shareholder value -- about equal to the gross domestic product of Sweden -- in just three days."The current situation is totally unexpected," said Tokyo Stock Exchange President Taizo Nishimuro."The problem has caused a selling climax. Everyone is throwing in sell orders, said Ken Masuda, a senior dealer at Shinko Securities shortly before trade was halted."Even after five minutes, orders aren't going through. This is ridiculous."---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)--- Toolie (1/18/06; 18:40:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 140616) Iran says ready to repatriate oil earnings http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=24586 Snip: TEHRAN –– Iran, facing mounting international pressure over its nuclear plans, will repatriate oil earnings held in foreign accounts if that proves necessary, Central Bank Governor Ebrahim Sheibani said on Wednesday. Iran is facing referral to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions over its disputed nuclear programme. It has bitter memories of its money being frozen in US accounts shortly after the 1979 Islamic revolution. "Whenever that proves necessary, we will do whatever needs to be done," Sheibani told reporters, when asked about the possible need to repatriate oil earnings.....Gold traders on Monday said a surge in the price of the precious metal could be due to buying from a Middle Eastern central bank. Some traders pointed fingers at Iran which does not report its gold reserves to the International Monetary Fund. But they admitted they had no direct evidence for this. When contacted by Reuters about any major change in the distribution of its assets, the Central Bank of Iran declined to comment. (end snip)Perhaps a lesson here for other countries that foresee possible cross-purposes with resource consuming superpowers – save early, save often. spikedog (1/18/06; 17:38:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 140614) Flatliner, Thoreauly, digital currencies and banks Perhaps, it would be best if we all became our own reserve, and not worry about what Bank A or Bank B has for reserves.If I understand the change that is coming: currency (of any pedigree) will ONLY function as a medium of exchange and banks will ONLY be the clearing houses for daily transactions. Disposable income will be exchanged for indispensible wealth in the form of gold and other tangibles and will be held in hand. Hence, banks may have much smaller deposits and if they go belly up, people won't be losing much (as opposed to life savings).Look to China and India - they seem to be leading the way. I wonder if they care about what banks have for reserves.Just musing here. If I've stated the perfectly obvious, everyone can just move along - nothing to see here.Spikedog Flatliner (1/18/06; 16:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140613) @Digital Currencies I do also. It is an interesting challenge for any government. Caution prevents me from getting involved just yet. Why? Because I expect in the near future that the perception that people hold with regards to the value of gold will change drastically.When CPM endorses it, I will be more willing to participate. But, right now, I see it as a way for ‘Big Trader’ to acquire more gold at these ridiculously low prices. Thoreauly (1/18/06; 16:46:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140612) @ Flatliner In a market-based (i.e., free) monetary system, banks and related exchanges would need to subject themselves to routine audits by outside agencies in order to establish and maintain their reputations -- all based on trust -- and thus their competitiveness. This isn't to say that fractional reserve banking wouldn't be tolerated; it's just that it probably wouldn't stand up to the competition, as consumers would prefer to do business with 100% reserve banks.Only time will tell, of course, but I find the "Big Picture" compelling:http://www.escapeartist.com/Digital_Currencies/Digital_Currencies5.html Flatliner (1/18/06; 16:37:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 140611) Digital Currencies Any form of currency involves extending trust into the system. The one thing that CPM gives us that these digital currencies do not is the freedom from having to extend trust to a relatively unknown system.I'm sure we will all watch these digital currencies and, it may be, that we will find value in them. But, if you do not want to *have to* extend trust to someone else, somewhere else, hold physical in hand. As White Hills says, I trust myself. Flatliner (1/18/06; 16:16:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 140610) @Thoreauly… I would still question this system. To me, it is just another form of fractional reserve lending (banking). :) They basically team up with bullion dealers around the world so that anyone that wants to take gold out of the system can ‘shop’ at any one of these dealers. I have not read the fine print, but logic has it that these systems have a ‘reserve’ that is a fraction of the total ‘money’ in the system. Why? Because they don't need to convert it all, thus they won't. Look at the people in Vietnam. They believe that their ‘gold money’ is as good as gold. Why? Because if they need to take it out of the bank, they can go and do so. But, the banks KNOW that all people will not draw out all their gold at any one time. Thus, they only hold a small reserve.With these digital systems, if I put in 500 bucks currency, I have 500 bucks worth of value in the system. If you put in 1 ounce gold, you have about 500 bucks value in the system. In the system, there is 1 ounce of gold and 500 dollars currency but 1,000 worth of value. Where is the 100% backing in gold?When I get time, I will read the fine print. I believe that what I'll find will be that the value you own in the account is 100% redeemable in gold. This way, the system doesn't have to come up with gold as a losing 3rd party to the 1,000 dollar value problem. Thoreauly (1/18/06; 15:50:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 140609) @ Flatliner http://www.escapeartist.com/Digital_Currencies/Digital_Currencies4.html"The foundational currencies to the Gold Economy are 100% backed by gold bars held in secure vaults in locations around the world, such as London, Zurich, and Dubai. Should any holder of a gold digital currency require their equivalent value of gold holdings, they are redeemable in actual gold bars or can be converted to national currencies by exchange agents."That is, savings is based on physical, since the system is based on physical. mikal (1/18/06; 15:21:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140608) "Experts" expect 911 terrorism again- markets know it http://www.lewrockwell.com/buchanan/buchanan35.html Numerous Bush administration officials haveflatly stated their expectations in this regard."It's not a matter of if, but when."Judging from the flat US stock, bond, and dollar markets, and current geopolitical international crossfire over alleged "volatility" in gold and Japan for example,a rogue event may be close at hand. This column by Buchanan could lead one to believe terrorism in the US, in a subway in London, or elsewhere could, by process of elimination, (along with M3 stealth in March) prove to be ample reason for war... and multi-colored Bernanke balloons:Another Undeclared War? - Patrick J. Buchanan - Creators Syndicate Flatliner (1/18/06; 15:15:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 140607) @ By the Truck Load Bskija, If the value of the dollar goes to 1 cent making your Eagles worth 5 dollars a piece, I would gladdy buy every one of them from you. The more you have for me the happier I'll be. When the dollar loses buying power, time disperses wealth. If you are a creditor, over time, you get back money that is worth less then when you originally signed the deal. If you are the debtor, you pay with money that has less buying power over time. If you have a fixed debt of 5k per month and the dollar falls to being worth 1 cent it means that the value of your debt is now 1/100th the value that it was before. Thus, it's 100 times easier for you to pay. The creditor is the one that goes out of business. They are the ones that are getting 5k a month from you but that 5k only buys them 1/100th what it did before the dollar lost value. Likewise, if you take your Eagle anywhere in the world (anywhere), you will get the going world price. If the dollar loses 99%, that means that it will take 100 bucks to by 1 Euro. But, it may be that gold is 450 Euros per ounce, thus you'd get 450 Euros, convert them into dollars (45,000 dollars) and you would have enough dollars to by your 5k bills for 9 months. Flatliner (1/18/06; 15:05:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140606) @Thoreauly These digital currencies are very interesting. The problem right now is that they will be tested in the near future. At the point where physical gold become scarce, the real question will be – will the participants in these systems be able to get access to gold? Personally, I do not believe that they will. The second part is, if gold can not be found to back this system, what does? Faith? ??? It may be that we'll have a system similar to these in the future, but, it will not be a means for saving – it will be a means of exchange. Savings will always be in physical form. bskija (1/18/06; 15:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 140605) By the Truck Load @ If the Sky Falls InFlatliner, In a hypothetical situation let us say the current dollar was worth only one cent in purchasing power. I need about five thousand dollars to pay my bills each month before the sky fell in when the dollar was worth 100 cents at that time. It wouldn't matter whether I paid digitally or by paper money the creditors would demand the equivalent of the old worth of the dollar. If I brought one gold Eagle into the gold dealer's store I would not accept the current price of $500 one cent dollars, since the gold coin would only have a true value of 5 dollars compared with the old worth of the dollar which was worth 50,000 cents for an Eagle coin. The creditors would want 500,000 one cent dollars to address my bills if they wanted to stay in business. In Germany back in the 1920s and 1930s a person would have to bring a wheel barrow-full of money to buy a loaf of bread, the next day he would have to bring two wheel barrows-full to buy another loaf of bread.The digital dollar and the paper dollar would have the same worth. Each would be worth the equivalent of only one cent compared to the present day 100 cents dollar. Thoreauly (1/18/06; 14:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 140604) @ Flatliner I don't pretend to be an expert, but believing as I do that the demise of the state will be one of the 21st century's greatest legacies, I also believe that advanced technologies will bring out the best in gold in terms of convenience, safety, etc., to the great and lasting benefit of mankind.Here's a link that has a wealth of information in this regard: http://www.escapeartist.com/Digital_Currencies/Digital_Currencies.html Bulldog (1/18/06; 14:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 140603) 968 - How much is dollar hegemony worth? Apparently the whole bundle. Easy to fund the wars with dollars printed at will; may be getting harder to find the bodies. Buongiorno! (1/18/06; 14:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140602) Goldilox 571--possible salvo of marine assault ships Thanks for the heads-up. Now Drudge has as lead story the end of negotiations with Iran over nuclear development. "Not much to talk about", was the cryptic statement from Condolezza Rice, SecState. Even the French agree on this one....Iran sits upon one of the largest energy reserves on earth. They need nuclear energy like they need more sand. Israel,USA, and others can not gamble with the possibility of a nuclear Pearl Harbor. I can just hear the same whining now as was after 9-11, "Why didn't some one doooo something to prevent it?" Well, we are trying. Some toys are just too dangerous to be in the hands of homicidal maniacs. Just an opinion. If our Marines have indeed put to sea, calm yourselves. This is just the way nations talk to each other when they really mean business. Remember when Kennedy forced the Russians out of Cuba with their missiles. Such arms were unacceptable to us, we cut a deal, and tensions eased. Hope for that here. Delivery systems are the reason I fear a nuclear Iran more than Iraq. My limited understanding is that Iran has some missiles that would certainly threaten Israel and Europe--possibly the US. Others? Gold? Well, if Iran were to cause a slowdown of oil deliveries in some way, (the market may be reflecting that now), that may be their reply to whatever we are doing. Thus, we may wake up some morning to see oil at $75, gold at $600, and an even bigger mess in the Middle East.IMVHO!Buongiorno! Flatliner (1/18/06; 13:41:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140601) @Thoreauly, This may well be the future Seeing that you provided no real editorial comment, I followed your link to see how gold will fit into our future. The article is about digital currencies, specifically, private digital currencies. Currencies that are separate from government currencies.I see one element of truth in that article. That is that digital currencies are here and that they provide cost savings along with ease of use that make them attractive. But, IMHO, I believe that the article doesn't consider human nature or the fact that governments will not give up their currency monopolies. Also, every gold advocate here they will be disappointed by the weakness of the argument that is provided in the article. Sadly, it comes across in the article that digital ‘money’ has value and that the benefits are actually increased trust in the system.I have been using digital ‘money’ for more then 15 years. I have less trust today in digital money then I did when I carried a pocket full of hundreds! Currencies are for transactions. Gold is for saving. Flatliner (1/18/06; 12:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 140600) @If the sky Falls in Bskija, Ah, you made me laugh! A truck needed for a transaction… Do you need a truck when you buy a house? I would contend that even in the face of an EMP currencies will remain digital and gold will be a store of value.You are wise to own Eagles. May your wealth be too heavy to carry! bskija (1/18/06; 12:38:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 140599) If the Sky Falls In I am heavily invested in gold Eagles and gold stock since 1975. If the stock market crashes and our dollars go south, I'm sure gold stocks will go with it. Although, I'm also sure gold stocks will rise after the smoke clears. The dollar that is currently worth 100 cents will swirl down to one cent. If I find that I will need to sell some gold Eagles to pay my bills, will I have to back up a truck at the dealer's door to make the transaction? Will the dealer declare a moratorium so that the US Treasury printing presses can catch up to the world-wide demand? Should I purchase truck hauling stock? Belgian (1/18/06; 12:32:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 140598) @Henri Yes, and A/FOA also mentioned that it will be the gold-longs that will be excluded from the gold revaluation >>> Yesterday, the gold longs were locked in Tokyo ! 968 (1/18/06; 12:23:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140597) Budgets & military power... http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HA14Ak01.html "If Bush had come to the American people with a request to spend several hundred billion dollars and several thousand American lives in order to bring democracy to Iraq, he would have been laughed out of court.""To get an idea of the economic black hole the Iraq war could become, it is useful to remember some of the past estimates given by the administration of President George W Bush. Recall, for example, when then-White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey suggested in 2002, six months before the war, that the mission could cost $100 billion to $200 billion, Bush fired him because his estimate was up to three times the $70 billion the administration estimated.""Americans need to ask themselves if the White House is in competent hands when a $70 billion war becomes a $2 trillion war. Bush sold his war by understating its cost by a factor of 28.57. Any financial officer anywhere in the world whose project was 2,857% over budget would instantly be fired for utter incompetence.""For the sake of comparison, consider that late last summer the Pentagon was spending $5.6 billion per month on operations in Iraq, an amount that exceeds the average cost of $5.1 billion per month (in real 2004 dollars) for US operations in Vietnam between 1964 and 1972. Currently, the Pentagon is spending about $6 billion per month in Iraq. The total direct cost of the decade-plus Vietnam War to the United States was estimated to be $600 billion. And not even three years after its start, Iraq has already cost 42% of what the Vietnam war did.""...despite the political rhetoric one hears from all politicians, it turns out that America's fighting men and women are not worth that much. The authors wrote: "The military may quantify the value of a life lost as the amount it pays in death benefits and life insurance to survivors - which has recently been increased from $12,240 to $100,000 [death benefit] and from $250,000 to $500,000 [life insurance]. But in other areas, such as safety and environmental regulation, the government values a life of a prime age male at around $6 million." So a civilian death is worth at least $5.4 million or about 11 times that of a serviceman or woman. The economic cost for civilian deaths also applies to private contractors."----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What would an Iranian adventure cost the US taxpayer ? How much is dollar hegemony worth ? Henri (1/18/06; 12:04:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140596) so quiet... Perhaps it is because we are together with Trail Guide...just watching now Henri (1/18/06; 12:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 140595) bskija I do not know the answer to the question you pose, but I would think a dealer would be able to answer it. I think the reporting only applies to cash purchases and is across the board federal reporting requirement. The same as deposits or withdrawals of large amounts of cash. I believe purchases drawing on good funds by check or wire are not reportable events. I think the reporting current level is $2500 US for banks and it is reported as a "suspicious" transaction related to money laundering operations.This is a very good question, does anyone know for sure?Here is another.Why does the IRS care what you buy with their fiat? Isn't the impetus to continue consuming so that fiat has a high velocity of circulation? If one hoards fiat, it slows the velocity and more fiat must be pumped into the system to maintain velocity de jour. Does anyone think the Fed monitors fiat velocity as a control throttle? Greenspan admitted they they really don't know what constitues money these days. I'm guessing that they do know what fiat is. Pan (1/18/06; 11:57:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 140594) Avocet Mining's new 360000 ounce of GOLD - Put Options sold to Macquarie Bank, http://www.avocet.co.uk/pdf_resources/Press_Release_Gold_18_January_2006.pdf Another 11.2 tons of GOLD "sold" to the Gold Cartel!The game keeps going on, and onThe CEO must be afraid Gold will fall below 450.-$ and not cross over 700.- $ in the next 3 years! °The Company has purchased European put options (the ability to deliver at a certain price, exercisable at specific periods) for 10,000 ounces per month at US$450/oz over a 36 month period from April 2006 to March 2009. TheCompany has also sold European call options (the ability for a third party to purchase from the Company at a certain price, exercisable at specific periods) for 10,000 ounces per month at US$700/oz over the same periodfrom April 2006 to March 2009."The transaction counterparty is Macquarie Bank, the Company's principal banker. Macquarie has already granted the Company a US$10 million revolving credit facility. The transaction was entered into for zero cash consideration. No margin calls apply. Henri (1/18/06; 11:44:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 140593) Time for me to sell goldshares The last time I sold a few shares of Newmont and the gold price took off to the upside as if to mock me...Likewise when I buy, the price goes down...Didn't buy anything recently...perhaps I am contagious.Truly, I don't believe that what I do matters one fig...but then one never knows does one... bskija (1/18/06; 11:42:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140592) Limits to Gold Purchase Do any of you earthlings know if a gold dealer is obligated to buy gold coins as well as sell them? Is there a limit as to how many one oz. Eagles someone can buy at one time before they would have to report the purchase to the IRS? Flatliner (1/18/06; 11:19:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140591) @eric and how One of the most valuable things that CPM has done for you is archive the Thoughts of Another and FOA. If you have not read the Gold Trial and Thoughts (linked to above) you might only have a partial view of the big picture. I would suggest to everyone to read these words and thank CPM with your next purchase.With regards to GoldMoney.com, it will really be interesting to see if any of these alternate currencies actually stand over time. I would lean towards history to see how gold will fit into the future. I would assert that it will fit in just like it has always fit in. It is a store of value. Look at how the Central Banks around the world are viewing it and treat it the same way. The simple concept is, they are using it as their savings. So should you. But, when they want to put it to work, they exchange it for a currency which buys them goods in that currency. Picture a society much like today, except, people's perceptions will change. Rather then valuing dollars over gold, they will value gold over dollars. All else remains the same. Flatliner (1/18/06; 11:05:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 140590) @Belgian, "Why is it so silent on the forum..." "when the news is so terribly good for gold's future ?" True. You would think that there would be a little more excitement for gold's future here. But, unfortunately, I have seen that there are quite a few in the forum that subscribe to the point of view that change will cause chaos – at least temporarily. It is true that tensions are high, many are concerned and the majority hold their breath. From my point of view, if you have not been able to convince your brother, who values paper over gold, to buy gold, you have not tried hard enough to save your family. I wish I could be happy right now. :( timbervision (1/18/06; 10:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 140589) Oil Usul,I am largely a paperless investor, so no shorting from me. I was wondering if perhaps the reason for the intensification to war in the Middle East could be related to more than just the current known supplies of oil. I had heard that some of the older Texas oil wells had "replenished" themselves. Why an old field could be replenished could still have a fossil oil explanation.Thanks in any case for the details you provided refuting the case for abiotic oil. I think we all know the weight of accepted evidence supports the fossil fuel explanation for oil's existance. Thoreauly (1/18/06; 10:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140588) @ eric http://www.cipe.org/publications/fs/ert/e32/e32_02.htm.This may well be the future.At least I hope so. otish mountain (1/18/06; 09:47:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 140587) Iranian Oil Bourse http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/petrov011606pv.html Here is a clean link for the article I think Eric is referring to.I recommend a read for it enlightened me on the concept of world taxation thru currency debasement which I had not thought of before. Goldilox (1/18/06; 09:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140585) Welcome to "Hell Day"? http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm snip:I won't gloat and yell "Dammit, I told you so!" (or, maybe I will) but here's the overnight picture:The Tokyo stock exchange closed in a panic apparently touched off by a reported investigation into LiveDoor. The market was closed 20-minutes early by circuit breakers [market panic prevention trading limitation rules] being activated by selling which saw the market down more than 4% at one point.The price of gold is taking a hit, down to the US$ 545 level.Markets in Europe are taking it on the chin, as well and as I write this special early edition of today's report, Dow futures are down nearly 100 points.Other factors impacting trading later today: Intel is not as optimistic as expected.Oil is back near $67 a barrel.On our watch list today: How well the US Tech Sector will do (we expect poorly, but it will be an issue of magnitude) and the Global Hell Day is likely to visit Germany where a second real estate fund has barred the door to investors exiting. The German situation is, I think, far more significant to the investment mood than is the LiveDoor report in Japan. Why? Because if there's one thing that scares the daylights out of investors, it is the notion of being "locked in" to a declining investment. Should the inherent lack of liquidity in many paper funds become evident to a large enough group of Baby Boomers who are watching their retirement nest eggs closely, then you would have the potential for a worldwide economic meltdown. To our way of looking at charts, this would simply be the resumption of the declines that began when the tech bubble burst in 2000. The market at a very macro level has been in a huge "B" wave bounce since March of 2003. It seems likely that the C wave Down is beginning in here, and if so, it could portend a Dow falling to the 6,000 area, and that would effectively steal up to 40% of Baby Boomer's retirement nest eggs. Not that you couldn't have figured that out for yourself, of course. Now, I won't say "told you so" BUT you will recall that the web bots had been talking about the financial meltdown to come in the January-March period. Well, although it's early to be certain, this is probably the start of that sequence of events the future predictive software has been alluding to. By the way, congratulations to both Cliff and Igor at www.halfpasthuman.com for getting this so right on. Their primary commercial client has to be just ecstatic because they were perfectly positioned for this thanks to the private data runs. Say, is this cool, or what? Now I know why I awoke this morning at 4;00 AM uneasy and unable to sleep. -GoldiloxDOW 11K sure didn't last very long! Got retirement? Got gold? Notice our $20 PoG spanking seems to be turning around already. When was the last time we saw some "early market closures"? Goldilox (1/18/06; 09:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 140584) Climate Discussions @ Rook,With the return to previous topical restrictions, we shouldn't be talking about this here. Belgian (1/18/06; 08:41:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 140582) @Eric The general idea, in the Petrov article, is already known (and discussed) here for almost 7 years now, Eric.Let's guess about the future and how exactly gold is going to fit into it. eric (1/18/06; 08:15:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 140581) Iranian Oil Bourse I have posted an article on the Iranian Oil Bourse on the UK motley fool site. You may need to register to view it but this is free. The article is written by a PHD economist. I am interested in the forums thoughts about the article. http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9771318Regards. Druid (1/18/06; 07:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 140580) Nikkei Boogie Druid: Let me guess, some big Japanese players are helping propel shiny's price upward and squeezing some shorts along the way, and so Vader sends out some hedge fund guys on a mission to spank the Nikkei. Market volatility is really going to be served up on the menu this year. Humble Pie (1/18/06; 07:12:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 140579) RE #140574 Allo Tokyo You hit the nail right on the head.Keep it coming Usul (1/18/06; 04:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140577) timbervision, abiotic oil: http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?rnd=1113439994015&has-player=true If oil resupplies itself abiotically, why hasn't it refilled all the old Texas oilfields, where output has decreased steadily since the 1970s? If that is all abiotic oil can do for a depleted oilfield, it will be a fat lot of use when the Saudi, Iraqi, Nigerian, Iranian, etc. fields start to decline and will make absolutely no difference to the argument that oil prices must rise as the 50% point of easy oil extraction is passed.Rolling Stone (Link), April 2005: "Some "cornucopians" claim that the Earth has something like a creamy nougat center of "abiotic" oil that will naturally replenish the great oil fields of the world. The facts speak differently. There has been no replacement whatsoever of oil already extracted from the fields of America or any other place.""Show Me the Oil!"http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/showmetheoil.html"The abiotic hypothesis remains just that, an hypothesis which has failed in prediction and so cannot be elevated to a theory. It is completely ignored by the oil industry worldwide, and even within Russia. And that is the final testament to its failure."http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/011205_no_free_pt2.shtmlOil + Energy (debunking abiotic oil)http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/index.shtml#abiotic"Perhaps one day there will be general agreement that at least some oil is indeed abiotic. Maybe there are indeed deep methane belts twenty miles below the Earth's surface. But the important question to keep in mind is: What are the practical consequences of this discussion now for the problem of global oil depletion? I have not personally inspected the oil wells in Saudi Arabia or even those in Texas. But nearly every credible report that I have seen - whether from the industry or from an independent scientist - describes essentially the same reality: discoveries are declining, and have been since the 1960s. Spare production capacity is practically gone. And the old, super-giant oil fields that the world depends upon for the majority of its production are nearing or past their all-time production peaks. Not even the Russian fields cited by the abiotic theorists as evidence for their views are immune: in June the head of Russia's Federal Energy Agency said that production for 2005 is likely to remain flat or even drop, while other officials in that country have said that growth in Russian production cannot be sustained for more than another few years."Richard Heinberghttp://www.museletter.com/archive/150b.htmlAre you shorting oil or gold or both? Clearly the argument on the peaking oil side is that the increasing costs of oil will stoke general price inflation and tend to increase the price of gold. If you believe in magically refilling oil wells, you should buy one of those old dead Texas oil fields and wait for it to magically refill and make your fortune.Let us know how you get on. Belgian (1/18/06; 01:49:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 140575) The (former) Gold Exchange Standard.... ...Was the existing of gold-reserves next to $-reserves (simplified)!What if the gold-reserves are evolving into taking over the function of the $-reserves ? And the last remains of the virtual gold-exchange-standard become officially obsolete ! Think about it in an historical evolutive context. Belgian (1/18/06; 01:40:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 140574) Allo Tokyo The organized rise of the Tokyo stockmarket + today's enronitis, evidences once again, that the complete financial industry has mutated into ONE BIG HOUSE OF CARDS.Worse, than a rather pleasant Vegas casino.Once again, the ongoing revaluation process of gold, meets the organized desperate shorters, along the road (gold trail).Nothing more, nothing less !The mutation into the "one big house of cards", was only possible thanks to the allowed/supported existance + proliferation of the "derivatives" !!!Why is it so silent on the forum...when the news is so terribly good for gold's future ? Goldilox (1/18/06; 01:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140573) Pyrrhic Victory Websters:Pyr·rhic victory P Pronunciation Key (prk)n.A victory that is offset by staggering losses.Wikipeia:A Pyrrhic victory (pronounced pirric) is a victory which is won at too great a cost for the victor. The phrase is a reference to King Pyrrhus of Epirus, who defeated the Romans at Heraclea and Asculum in 279 BC, but suffered severe and irreplaceable casualties in the process, going on to eventually lose the Pyrrhic War. After the battle of Asculum, Plutarch relates a report by Dionysius that:"The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one other such would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him, and almost all his particular friends and principal commanders; there were no others there to make recruits, and he found the confederates in Italy backward. On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war." Belgian (1/18/06; 00:10:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 140572) A Pyrrhus victory... Is a victory where the price to be paid for peace is a high multiple of the price for making war (threaths of war). And after each costly war (and threath)...there comes peace.Will wars on/for energy reserves result in a peaceful/prosperous energy environment for all, afterwards ? No way !Can "paper" go on to pretend that it is wealth, for ever ? No way !Think we might see a short cut on the road to freegold wealth. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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