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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/18/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Blackjack (8/18/02; 23:42:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 83254)
Time is running out for Japan
Tokyo, Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is backtracking on pledges to cut public-works spending and cap state insurance on bank deposits, leaving the country vulnerable to a further credit-rating cut, Standard and Poor's said.

S&P cut Japan's local-currency rating one grade to a fourth- ranking AA- in April, saying the government wasn't acting fast enough to reduce national debt or force banks to dispose of bad loans.

``A string of policy decisions recently announced by the Japanese government appear to backtrack on reforms,'' S&P said in a report. ``Further delays in implementing structural reforms could adversely affect the ratings.''

Regulators said last month they may exempt some bank deposits from a plan to cap deposit insurance next April at 10 million yen ($84,807) per customer. Takahira Ogawa, S&P's director of Asian sovereign ratings, said that may signal Japan is reneging on a promise to force banks to dispose of bad loans within two years.

``Japan has no concrete plan to deal with the non-performing loan problem,'' Ogawa said in a phone interview. ``If there is further slipping of the pace of structural reform, we might have to downgrade our expectations of the government.''

The yen fell for a second day, trading at 117.88 to the dollar at 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 117.65 in New York Friday. The yen also weakened as the Nikkei 225 stock average shed 2.6 percent, reducing demand for the currency to buy shares.

Bad Loans

Japan's 704 lending institutions had 52.4 trillion yen in bad loans at the end of March, 22 percent more than a year earlier, the Financial Services Agency estimates. Bad loans are slowing an economic recovery by discouraging banks from extending credit to businesses. Bank lending hasn't risen since October 1996.

Japan's decision to exempt some bank deposits from the insurance cap ``is a bit of a setback,'' Ogawa said. ``They have to tackle structural problems in the banking sector rather than easing incentives.''

The U.S. rating company cut its rating on Japan's yen- denominated bonds for a third time in 14 months in April, putting the rating on par with the Czech Republic and Israel.

Japan's national debt will rise to 693 trillion yen by March, the government forecasts. That's equal to 140 percent of gross domestic product and would be the highest debt burden among industrialized nations.

Time Running Out

Other recent policy decisions also show Koizumi is backing down, Ogawa said in the report. Japan's cabinet earlier this month approved a 3 percent cut in spending on roads, dams and other public works for the year starting April 1, 2003, less than this year's 10 percent reduction.

Koizumi's plan to open the postal system to private competition met such fierce opposition from fellow Liberal Democratic Party members that bills passed last month include tight restrictions on potential entrants to the mail-delivery market. Yamato Transport Co. Ltd. and other trucking companies have abandoned plans to compete with the government.

Koizumi defended the plan, saying it's a first step toward further reforms. Ogawa said he doubted whether more meaningful changes would follow.

``Even if they say this is a strategic handling, whether the time is left (to carry out reforms) is another matter,'' Ogawa said. ``Time will not wait for this government.''
__________
Japan debt 140% of GDP, US is about 60%, would Moody's downgrade
uncle sam? Deflation in the air.

Sierra Madre (8/18/02; 23:40:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 83253)
Aristotle - Sierra here again.

Sir:

If you care to, please restate your views in such terms as can be clearly understood by a fairly intelligent teenager.

Thank you

Sierra

Sierra Madre (8/18/02; 23:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83252)
Aristotle, with regard to your post 83233, address to me:

Thanks for the thoughts! I cannot reply unless I first clearly grasp what you are saying.

Your level of communication, may I say, is rather cryptic; I find I have to try to figure out what you are trying to say. Excuse this statement, it is not a criticism; to speak more clearly, your level of communication presupposes in me, a level of comprehension which allows for the omission of what to an informed reader, is superflous - but that is not my case.

I am sure you have something valuable to say, and I thank you for the message. Will work on your statements and reply sometime later.

Sierra

goldquest (8/18/02; 22:06:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 83251)
Wolkoff Believes In Transparency
http://www.amm.com/ref/hot/HAM912.HTM
for others!

goldquest (8/18/02; 21:40:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83250)
Neal Wolkoff
http://www.ite.poly.edu/htmls/bio_neal.htm
Not a Civil Servant, just an Uncivil A$$hole!

shades (8/18/02; 21:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83249)
ted butlers response to neil woltkoff
I cant beleive the utter pomposity where an honest taxpayer can ask legitimate questions to a civil servant, and that said civil serpent (sic) demands no further correspondence from his true employer. What a sham time ,to get mad people

steady (8/18/02; 21:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 83248)
Mahendra Speaks!
whether right or wrong i dont think he cares as long as his predictions get ink and his books get sold.
maybe he is somehow conected with dr.no and hung fat!
Rember this the usa is in the business of disinformation as well as information and if u have noticed the amout being spewed forth re iraq, who can really tell now whats real and whats fake> many times i feel as if im being used by them when i post info they have put out. whos aim am i serving? theres or mine? as an astute poster here said rely on your intuition even if it is a bit clouded righ t now it will never let you down. Try not to get caught up in there lil propaganda machine. Think for yourself and get as much gold as your own understanding allows you to to!

slingshot (8/18/02; 21:10:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 83247)
Silvercollector
****************************
Precious metal quack! ROFLMAO.

Quack, Quack, Quack. LOL :0)
Slingshot---------------Quack.

cyberbat (8/18/02; 21:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83246)
an old nursery ryme
I also predict that:
Robber Rubin stood so tall;
But Robber Rubin had a great fall;
All the bank's money and all of his friends,
Couldn't put Rubin back together again.
mid-2003 or before

silvercollector (8/18/02; 20:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83245)
Hope everyone had a great week-end.
I spent some time with my brother-in-law, the only man that I know who will tolerate more than 5 minutes of my PM 'speech'.

We had gone fishing in the morning, got back to the cottage around noon, immediately got into the brew-skies and naturally into the discussion of investing. Three hours into it he threw up his hands and proclaimed that I was a 'precious metal quack'. I asked in bewilderment what that was and he informed he it was an investor long in PM's for eternity.

I quickly responded , "I'm long right now, just in time for the bull".

He laughed, "I was long in 'tech' in the late '90's, long real estate for the last 2 years and now am climbing aboard oil & gold, where have you been?"

"I've been in T-bills, cash; waiting for things to clear"

He laughed again, "You're full of it John, you've been long gold since '87. The problem with you gold bugs is it's T-bills or gold, nothing in between. You guys are waiting to quintruple your money and I have already!"

I felt pretty beat up by then and suddenly the right answer slapped me, "Well I am glad for you Derrick, now the trick is to hold your wealth through the upcoming storm."

"You and your storms", he wailed.

"Well, you stay long your paper and I'll hold the gold and we shall see who crosses the finish line first, you're the hare and I'm the turtle, okay?"

We laughed together, the bet is on!!

goldquest (8/18/02; 20:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 83244)
Get Your Gold
http://www.almartinraw.com/column67.html
before the politicians buy it all up and send it offshore!

Trapper (8/18/02; 19:38:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83243)
Sir Aristotle
silver money
Your exchange on the suggestion that sivler should be used as money was interesting. Do you know who was responsible for art.1 sec 10 of the US constitution? I thing the booklet he did says it all, but in out post constitutional America no one seems to care. Just let me get mine. God save the
republic because we don't have the stomach for it anymore.
Live small.
RJ

Slowman (8/18/02; 19:00:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 83242)
Gold and Silver
Just another comment about Early Sept. It looks to me like on or about Sept. 9 we will invade Irac. Been following ships being sent to fight terrorism about 3 weeks ago, the U.S.A. getting a ship recently to transport tanks, amo etc. to be dumped there no later than Aug. 31. Its comming together rapidly and should sky rocket metals shortly. Maybe these other fellows are looking at what I see in short future!!!!

R Powell (8/18/02; 18:51:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 83241)
Prediction
While on the subject of prediction, I'll venture out on a limb and make some.

I'll portend that the POG will be higher than the price of palladium before the end of this month. I'll also predict that the Kitco lease rates for gold as shown on their home page this weekend are not correct. However, if they are correct, then I'll prophesize $350 pog by month's end.
Please remember only those predictions which prove to be correct! Thanks,
Rich

R Powell (8/18/02; 18:24:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 83240)
Mahendra
I mentioned and questioned Ma(hen)dra's prophesies and methods earlier today (83227).
I haven't verified his track record but have heard his name mentioned repeatedly in different places. Some claim he has been correct in past predictions but, if you give me enough questions, and a choice of only two opposing answers (like up or down), I'll bet I can get close to half of them right! Then if I constantly remind everyone of my correct predictions while refusing to ever even acknowledge the existence of my wrong answers, well. Actually, the fine art of entrail reading, when properly conducted, is close to infallible but I can reveal no more.

His prophesy, your predictions, technical projections, seasonal probabilities and long term cyclicals along with the basic fundamentals which usually support precious metal prices are all indicating higher. Sometimes patience is not easy to maintain but as much as I seek, I can find no reason why POS and POG will not become more precious. Hopefully Mahendra is a true sage!
Rich

mikal (8/18/02; 18:11:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83239)
@MarketTalk
It's good to hear from you. I have observed the predictions of the self-proclaimed Indian "astrologer and prophet", who is not in a "guru/mystic" in any traditional sense. From the postings on various gold forums and the man's own website, I have seen great discepancies. For example, since last year, at least, he has called for any specific and general metals price movements, that were not right even in a general time frame. This summer, he repeatedly revised his price predictions, and missed almost every time. Another area he touches, in an even more vague and general way, is the stock markets, again dismal, IMHO. His website is where he sells his books and fails to show the needed educational background in India, (an absolute minimum requirement).

MarkeTalk (8/18/02; 17:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83238)
Mahendra Speaks! But Does Anyone Listen??
www.mahendraprophecy.com
On Friday, a client of mine from New York (yes, there are gold bugs in New York City, believe it or not) told me about an Indian guru/mystic named Mahendra Sharma. He also told me he has been making some interesting predictions about the markets and world events. In particular, Mahendra is saying the prices of gold and silver (especially silver) will take off after September 2, 2002 and never look back. He gives no explanation other than the stars. While I don't believe in astrology, in my last post (message #83043) I gave other reasons why I believe the upcoming month of September will contain more than a few "upsets" in markets and world politics, thus pushing gold (and silver) way up.

Question: Does anyone know what this guy's track record is? If he is right for whatever reason, then we have just 14 days to find out. Finally, another gold buyer called me on Friday and he lives in New Jersey. He is an Orthodox Jew who told me to watch the price of gold beginning on August 31st, saying that a geopolitical event could take place in the Middle East. He had his own methodology of arriving at this date. Needless to say, all methodologies aside, I believe we are standing at the forefront of moumental global events which, in hindsight, will shock us.

Got gold? If not (or not enough), don't wait for world events to compel you to act! Call me here at Centennial on extension 102.

GC

Mr Gresham (8/18/02; 15:47:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 83237)
Mauldin on US/Japan
http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo081602
Looks good, but I gotta get outside in the sun! (NM in the hammock, after completing half of day's exercise -- BB needs a live "fish cam" so we can watch the whole of his exemplary lifestyle ;)

Lady Siochaina -- enjoy Vermont! I'm on the verge of probably declining an invite there for next week, so I'll expect a full report when you're back ;)

I've read incompletely here since 8/9 -- frustrating! -- all the Saudi news, and Belgian's been hot, too -- even the return of -- shock! -- DIALOGUE! (Thanks, Ari)

I learned of the demise (heart disease) this week of an acquaintance (via e-mail exchange) whose work I greatly respect. Two months older than I. Needless to say, aside from sadness, health has been on my mind. Walking the paths of my old summer camp last month, in my now-quite-middle-aged body, has set me wondering just what goals are achievable. (As usual, I will probably over-do some things. But this is a fight for survival, and I face the opposition in the mirror each morning.)

LIVE!!! -- to enjoy ALL of your Golden blessings...

Mr Gresham (8/18/02; 15:36:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 83236)
Fleck
http://money.msn.com/content/p28324.asp
Enjoying his bully pulpit, on Cognex' CEO candor (good), Glassman (bad) and the general view as things deteriorate.

Did anyone put up a Mauldin link on Japan-style deflation? I'll put that here next; it was in this window before, then another click took me out of there somehow...

Siochaina (8/18/02; 14:59:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 83235)
Off for Vacation
Well the last few business trips I took....gold went up nicely....so I am hoping my vacation in Vermont mountains leads to same

And for good luck...just added some more gold!!!

slingshot (8/18/02; 14:48:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 83234)
Waverider
Siege Engine
Yepper, the story is heating up. Wine, women and song. Deadly combination for any soldier. :0)

Slingshot--------------<>

Aristotle (8/18/02; 13:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 83233)
Exploration of Sierra Madre
I noted your comment yesterday, and acknowledge that this has been a regular theme with you. Somehow I've never gotten around to chatting with you about it in the detail it deserves. I think the topic and outcome would be instructive for all Gold advocates, even thought the topic is silver. The parallel with Gold should be obvious. You wrote:

"what if ONE country decided to allow free coinage of silver?"

My first question: Realistically, why would any thoughtful and civilized country want to follow through with such a thing? Sure, superficially there may be some attractive inflation-busting notions among hyperinflation-prone countries, but that would be like putting someone in a small jail cell as a cure for a sprained ankle. Sure, the ankle will heal with the restrictions on mobility, but at what greater sacrifice?

Argentina tried to do a similar thing but with dollars in place of silver, and yet just look at the very predictable consequences (economic recession and a systemic collapse of the banking system) as the price they paid for arresting their inflationary tendencies through this ill-advised scheme. The money supply (and the attendant pricing) was ultimately too restricting for the patient to thrive.

My view, shared by many others who have given serious consideration to such things, is that it's a sad waste of useful resources to employ such things as silver in the manufacture of national currencies which merely symbolize the monetary unit and give it portability without losing its monetary pedigree while passing through the hands and pockets of any NON-banking entities. (By contrast, bank-to-bank transfers of money don't require this special physical quality assurance because the pedigree is never under question if the money doesn't actually leave the house.)

I realize that last bit was an ear full (and a mind full) but please give it some thought until you grasp it. At this point, I'm not so adamant that you agree with it (yet) but rather that you merely comprehend the meaning of what is being set forth.

If you'll then recognize and accept the fact that vastly more money exists in the form of "in house" digital/ledger bank money than as physical currency money, then the folly of tying up valuable resources in the manufacture of currency presents itself as an argument better than any other I could possibly make on the point.

To mix up a physical commodity (Gold, silver, or whatnot) in the monetary realm is only to cheapen the nature of that physical thing. Through the normal and "innocent" banking process, the commodity is effectively INFLATED in supply and at the same time SOLD SHORT by everyone who takes out a loan of money to buy something.

Simply put, to have Gold or silver be employed as monetary currency is to ask the world to join en masse as short sellers in conjuring an inflated supply (through a feeble delusion that aggregate loan contracts to deliver future is as reliable wealth as physical already in hand.)

Do you think I'm missing the boat? Before you answer, please bear in mind that this is a discussion about the real world as it is, not about our own petty desires about it *could* be if only we sat upon God's throne all powerful to "make it so."

Gold. Get you some physical Property. --- Aristotle

Waverider (8/18/02; 12:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 83232)
MoVerMeg
Got it!!! Thanks!

Waverider (8/18/02; 12:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83231)
Siege Engine
Gold above $300.00
As the Great Wizard was in The Valley of the Clouds and The Council was deep in thought, a new plan was in process...but of course it would need the approval of The Council. It seemed there were now two major challenges...the first was overcoming the despair that had infiltrated the hearts of the Knights. Strengthening their hearts would be the responsibility of The Council - they would reiterate The Moral Law of the Goldbugs which would renew and compel them to be in complete accord with Sir Howe, so that they would follow regardless of their lives, and be undismayed by any danger or obstacles. The Council would review with their Knights the following key deliberations: (1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law? (2) Which of the two generals has the most ability? (3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth? (4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced? (5) Which army is stronger? (6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained? The Council inherently knew the True answers to all of these questions, but they also knew the Knights needed renewed nourishment with this knowledge.

The second challenge was to develop a strategy for taking the remaining castles. Lady Waverider contemplated the options and set forth to present two strategies to The Council. They would dissect the plan in microscopic detail for the quality of their decision was liken to the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim. As per the great military strategist Sun Tze, there are not more than two methods of attack in battle - the direct and the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of maneuvers. Her strategy combined both - she would suggest the use of spies to penetrate the enemy. Two types would be employed...first converted spies - some of the captured enemy who had valuable knowledge had capitulated and joined the army of Goldbugs - they would be used to acquire further information and would plant local spies in many of the castles. Lady Waverider would also offer herself to be a spy to infiltrate the enemy castles and to bring back what news she could from the enemy's camp. Her plan was still subject to approval, and despite it seeming flawless, it was terribly dangerous. She belonged to the local dance entourage which performed in various castles during celebratory events. Because of her political affiliation she had not joined in the castle performances. She would dance in the next to celebrate the autumn harvest on the 3rd full moon and, along with the other dancers, intoxicate the army with their music, their movements, and with wine. Then...she would administer the true toxin - tincture of hemlock to the gate guards! The timing must be perfect so she could leave the castle with the dance ensemble before anyone was aware of the deadly poison. A predetermined sign, the cry of a night owl, would indicate that her mission had been accomplished and would signal the Knights to commence their siege of the castle...

shades (8/18/02; 11:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 83230)
coincidence
I wonder if there is anything to go by when kitcos and london bullion market lease rates are only current to thursday and Jim Sinclairs response to an email that " Monday will tell "?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/18/02; 11:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 83229)
The acquisition of knowledge is a man's gift to himself.
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine
Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Boilermaker (8/18/02; 10:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83228)
Mutual Fund Redemptions
http://personalmko.fidelity.com/gen/mflfid/3/316184100.html
The Fidelity Magellan Fund is the largest (I think) of all the mutual funds. Here is the Fidelity Magellan Fund's prospectus part that speaks to redemptions (selling of ones shares in the fund).
You will note that the next to last sentence below says "Redemption proceeds may be paid in securities or other property rather than in cash if FMR determines it is in the best interests of the fund". I believe nearly all funds have this feature. It means that when the music stops and there are no bids for the stocks which the fund holds, you will get envelope containing the worthless shares and/or a used piece of equipment from their office.

Snip;
Selling Shares
The price to sell one share of the fund is the fund's NAV.

Your shares will be sold at the next NAV calculated after your order is received in proper form.

Certain requests must include a signature guarantee. It is designed to protect you and Fidelity from fraud. If you hold your shares in a Fidelity mutual fund account, your request must be made in writing and include a signature guarantee if any of the following situations apply:

� You wish to sell more than $100,000 worth of shares;

� The address on your account (record address) has changed within the last 15 or 30 days, depending on your account, and you wish to sell $10,000 or more of shares;

� You are requesting that a check be mailed to a different address than the record address;

� You are requesting that redemption proceeds be paid to someone other than the account owner; or

� The redemption proceeds are being transferred to a Fidelity mutual fund account with a different registration.

You should be able to obtain a signature guarantee from a bank, broker (including Fidelity Investor Centers), dealer, credit union (if authorized under state law), securities exchange or association, clearing agency, or savings association. A notary public cannot provide a signature guarantee.

When you place an order to sell shares, note the following:

� If you are selling some but not all of your shares, keep your fund balance above $2,000 to keep your fund position open ($500 for fund balances in retirement accounts), except fund positions not subject to balance minimums.

� Normally, redemptions will be processed by the next business day, but may take up to seven days to be processed if making immediate payment would adversely affect the fund.

� Redemption proceeds (other than exchanges) may be delayed until money from prior purchases sufficient to cover your redemption has been received and collected. This can take up to seven business days after a purchase.

� Remember to keep shares in your fund position to be eligible to purchase additional shares of the fund.

� Redemptions may be suspended or payment dates postponed when the NYSE is closed (other than weekends or holidays), when trading on the NYSE is restricted, or as permitted by the SEC.

� Redemption proceeds may be paid in securities or other property rather than in cash if FMR determines it is in the best interests of the fund.

� You will not receive interest on amounts represented by uncashed redemption checks.

R Powell (8/18/02; 09:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 83227)
Lease rates
Good Sunday morning.
Kitco is still posting higher gold lease rates on its home page. A quick click on that gives previous daily lease fixes up to August 15 but not for the 16th. Our own link to the London Bullion Market gives daily rates through last Thursday but does not give Friday's number. Other sources offer no help as many refer back to Kitco.

I'm quessing this is another Kitco error of which we have seen many but it needs watching, especially as silver lease rates did rise nicely on Thursday.
Hopefully silver is about finished "retracting" from the gains she made after finally breaking through the 475-480 level which I then thought would hold as support on the way down. Wrong again. I do think gold has based (good Hamilton article this week on this) and is still safely bullish. This should add to the probability that silver has bottomed at about 445-450.
As mentioned before, I believe silver is now trading on technical factors often somewhat reflected in the COT. The long term trend of is now upward perhaps implying the fact that one day, in the not too distant future, supply and demand factors will assert themselves. When that happens, they will totally overwhelm technical considerations.

If anyone has any lease rate info that confirms or denys Kitco's numbers, please let us know.
The Indian prophet is talking of major price advances beginning next month for both metals. I have no knowledge of his methods for fortunetelling. Does he study the heavens or perhaps read entrails? Indian prophets, my foot! What do they know of the ancient art of reading the entrails of a freshly sacrificed Rhode Island Red under a new moon at midnight? Have they ever fought off coyotes or wolves, attracted by the sacrifical blood, during a dark, wind sweep night while the wind howls and clouds obscure the moonlight?

If buy-the-dips is the game plan, for physical and paper investments, this may be the time. Then again, maybe not, but my two cents goes to short term silver options on Monday. Physical is a much safer bet but mine is safely stored while the gambling game proceeds. Certainty? Only death and taxes that I know of.
Thoughts?
Rich

SWEET 16 (8/18/02; 08:48:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 83226)
(No Subject)
Good morning everyone.

Are you all writing letters? I hope so.

I just read the letters between Mr. Butler and Mr. Wolkoff at Mr. Cook's site. After talking it all over with Dad, boy am I steamed. I just sent Mr. Wolkoff the letter below and want to share it with everyone. I hope it isn't too long.

Mr. Neal Wolkoff, Executive Vice President

NYMEX/COMEX

Dear Mr. Wolkoff,

I am 15 years old and an investor (with my savings) in gold and silver mining companies. My Dad helped me start this account when I was born. I don't have a lot of money in it, but I add to it whenever I make money working (I mow grass every summer and baby-sit during the school year).

For the past 2 years I have been trying to learn how to study markets and make investment decisions. I use the internet to find interesting information. This morning, I read some information about letters between you and Mr. Ted Butler. I find this upsetting and sad. I think Mr. Butler's questions are fair and need to be answered. What seems interesting is that Mr. Butler asks some simple questions which could be answered easily, but no one will answer them. Does this mean you don't want him to know? If it is not bad, you shouldn't be afraid to answer. I worry that someone is forcing you to not do what is proper.

Mr. Wolkoff, I am an investor and have watched my account fall to less than half of where it was 2 years ago (30,000 down to 15,000), even though I keep putting some money in it when I can. Because I own this stock, does it mean I should not be writing to you? How else can I learn what is going on? I am not looking for inside information. I don't want to be in trouble like Martha Stewart.

I found an energy article where you said (please tell me if this is wrong), that large investors should not be allowed to influence the markets. Is this what is happening in the gold and silver markets? Mr. Wolkoff, you are a smart man and have an important job to do. Please help us out.

Yours Truly,

Sweet 16
(See, I am catching on Mr. Gandalf)

ps. I have pasted and underlined some of the article I was talking about below.

Statement of Neal L. Wolkoff, Executive Vice President
New York Mercantile Exchange
Before a Joint Hearing of the New York State
Senate Energy and Consumer Protection Committees
February 1, 2000

EX Market Oversight

At the Exchange, there are systems in place to ensure that, despite the fundamental forces in operation at a given time, artificial factors or manipulation cannot drive the prices of futures contracts. Our market surveillance and financial surveillance systems ensured orderly markets, including the most recent period of rapid price changes in the case of the heating oil and gasoline contracts.

Speculative position limits. Speculative position limits, or a limit on the number of contracts any one participant can hold in a single month or aggregated over all months, are an important facet of market oversight. The limits protect the market from the potential influence of large participants or concentration of positions.

MO VER MEG (8/18/02; 08:21:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 83225)
Waverider
To answer your question, please read the following:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/mcintosh072202.html

The salmon sounds great! Here in South Dakota we are stocking up on beef.

MOVERMEG

misetich (8/18/02; 07:40:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 83224)
Goldman Charged With Conflict Of Interest By Investment Banking Client Exec.
http://www.corporatefinancingweek.com/current+news/goldman+charged+with+conflict+of+interest+by+investment+banking+client+exec.asp
Snip:
--Mia-Margaret Laabs

The former chief development officer of NorthPoint Communications, a company Goldman Sachs took public, is charging the firm with mishandling his personal account at least in part because the firm's private bankers were influenced by its investment bankers, according to today's edition of Private Asset Management, a CFW sister publication. Herman "Whitey" Bluestein, who claims his assets fell from $35 million to less than $100,000 during 18 months of management, has filed a complaint with the National Association of Securities Dealers alleging that Goldman provided bad advice by not properly diversifying his concentrated stock position. Additionally, he claims what he described as Goldman's leveraged buy-and-hold strategy resulted in substantial losses and unfunded tax liabilities. Bluestein also claims Goldman had an inherent conflict of interest by having its private banking arm oversee his portfolio as he believes the investment bank did not want company insiders to sell their stock. "Cross marketing translated into English is conflict of interest," Bluestein said.

In a separate letter to the Securities Exchange Commission, Bluestein is asking for an investigation into cross-marketing abuses between investment banking and private clients.
*********
Misetich
One suit after ANOTHER against investment bankers - There are more than a "few rotten apples" -

Got gold?

misetich (8/18/02; 07:17:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 83223)
Saudis Cry Foul over U.S. Sept. 11 Lawsuit-"This is an act to extort Saudi money deposited in the United States and a way of meddling in the region," an official at Al Rajhi Investment and Development Corp, one of several Saudi banks named in the lawsuit, told Reuters by telephone.
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/US/reuters20020818_62.html
Snip:

Aug. 18
� By Fahd al-Frayyan

RIYADH (Reuters) - Several Saudi banks and Islamic charities named in a lawsuit by families of Sept. 11 victims vehemently denied Sunday any role in funding terrorism and blasted the case as an attempt to extort Saudi wealth abroad.

The suit has sparked rare calls by commentators and newspapers in the kingdom to review traditionally strong Saudi-U.S. ties. Saudi Arabia has yet to comment officially.

Offended that the lawsuit named members of the royal family, including Defense Minister Prince Sultan -- the third highest official in the kingdom -- many Saudis accused Washington of putting pressure on the Gulf Arab state to make it conform with U.S. policies on Iraq and the Middle East.

In a civil suit filed in a Washington court Thursday, relatives of some 900 people killed in the attacks by hijacked jets accused three senior Saudi princes, several Saudi and other foreign banks and Sudan's government of funding Osama bin Laden, the prime U.S. suspect in the attacks.

The lawsuit seeks damages of over $100 trillion.

"This is an act to extort Saudi money deposited in the United States and a way of meddling in the region," an official at Al Rajhi Investment and Development Corp, one of several Saudi banks named in the lawsuit, told Reuters by telephone.

................
Some commentators in Saudi newspapers, which reflect government thinking, blasted the lawsuit as part of a wider campaign against the kingdom and called for a review of ties.

Khaled al-Dakheel, writing in London-based al-Hayat daily, seconded a call by al-Riyadh daily "that Saudi-U.S. strategic relations are at the forefront of ties that need reviewing."
.............
Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation General Manager Aqeel al-Aqeel said the campaign was aimed at the Muslim world. "They hope by doing this that they will pressure the Islamic world into accepting an attack on Iraq," he told Reuters.

He said Muslim charities named in the lawsuit planned to hold a meeting soon in Cairo to discuss a plan of action.
.............
"Naming Prince Sultan is the equivalent of saying J. Edgar Hoover was a communist spy," said economist Bishr Bakheet. "It is unacceptable for Saudis that such individuals be probed."

"Assuming the court proceeds with this lawsuit, the Saudi investment community, already in shock, will start withdrawing their money," he said. "People are really going to walk out."

Saudi investments in the United States are put at $750 billion
******************
Misetich

Its heating up - as the salvos are being fired by both sides-
Will the Saudis succumb to this tactic? Does this tactic (s) push Saudis toward hostility - closing their ties with Iran and Iraq
Can the US economy survive an Oil embargo from Iran, Iraq, and the Saudis? Will Venezuela's Chavez co-operate with US in that event?
Can the Ruskies be counted upon by the US to supplant Middle East Oil? and why should they?
Will Oil be priced in Euros? When?
Will Middle East money (US $) be converted to Euros - Gold?

Troubling questions -

Got gold?

misetich (8/18/02; 07:03:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 83222)
Deutsche Telekom to post highest ever loss in H1 - report
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_652672.html?menu=
Snip:

Deutsche Telekom AG will post its highest ever loss in the first half of 2002, reported Focus magazine, citing no sources.

The loss will be higher than the full-year net loss of 3.5 billion euro in 2001, said the magazine, citing two reasons.

The consolidation of VoiceStream has led to a loss of 3 billion euro, while Telekom has also had to revalue its stake in France Telecom SA to the tune of 600 million euro, the magazine said in an article to be published tomorrow.

Telekom will report first-half results on Wednesday.

**********
Misetich

The telecom debacle - How far reaching are the effects of this multi trillion fallout? Stockholders, bondholders, investment banks - the domino continues as earnings and cashflow wanes for these corporations and debt renewals, debt service revolve daily

Got gold?

Blackjack (8/18/02; 05:50:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 83221)
Worst Credit stress since Great Depression
http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36%257E33%257E801767%257E,00.html
Sunday, August 18, 2002 - U.S. corporate debt nearly doubled in the past five years - to $3.9 trillion by the month of May.

U.S. consumers spent that same amount on all services - from haircuts to dog grooming - during 2001.

The burden, already buckling many companies under the load, threatens to send the nation into a prolonged recession.

"We're looking at an economic heart attack in front of us," said John Riley, president of Cornerstone Investment Services, a money management firm in Providence, R.I. "We're faced with owning up to the excesses of the late 1990s."

In 1997, U.S. corporate debt - which includes bonds issued by companies to finance their activities as well as bank loans - was $2 trillion, according to the Bond Market Association.

Moody's Investor Research now says the nation is in the worst credit stress since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Blackjack (8/18/02; 05:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 83220)
College Grads face "bleak" job market
Oklahoma, Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- For three years, Doug Carpenter studied finance at the University of Oklahoma with the goal of working in the energy industry as a financial analyst. Job cuts and trading losses at companies such as Dynegy Inc. and Williams Cos. derailed those plans.

``I gave up looking for a job in April,'' said Carpenter, 22. He graduated in May with no employment lined up.

Energy traders, once the biggest recruiters at universities in Texas and Oklahoma, are canceling hiring programs this year, forcing thousands of college students to switch career plans or take lower-paying jobs. Dynegy, Williams, Enron Corp. and Reliant Energy Co. stopped hiring on campuses after a 70 percent tumble in energy trading volume this year wiped out profits.

The energy industry's hiring freeze comes as graduates face fewer prospects in fields from computer services to finance. U.S. unemployment rose to an eight-year high in April, and U.S. companies have cut 1.71 million jobs since March 2001. About half of college graduates find jobs by the time they leave school, down from 65 percent a year ago, according to CollegeGrad.com, an Internet site specializing in entry-level jobs.

``A year ago, energy companies were hiring many folks out of college,'' said Bernard Weinstein, director of the Center for Economic Development at the University of North Texas. ``With the economy and no new jobs, it's going to be difficult for the next 12 to 18 months.''

Fewer Recruiters

Nationwide, the number of companies hiring at colleges and universities fell 36 percent last year, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. At some schools, the decline has been more than 40 percent, the association said.

In the energy industry, the outlook is bleak.
________________
Buddy can you spare a Billion?

Black Blade (8/18/02; 04:58:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 83219)
The China Factor
http://www.oil-gasoline.com/default.asp?id=645

Snippit:

The Problem is China's Rapidly Emerging Economy

China's emerging economy is in the process of changing the entire oil supply-demand picture. Until now, the US was the country that provided the marginal demand in the crude oil market. But that was when China produced enough oil to satisfy it's relatively meager demand. Recently, things have changed in China. China is building refineries at a rapid rate. It's production was keeping up until 1999, when refining capacity exceeded production by just over a million barrels per day.

Demand for Gasoline will Grow with Introduction of Cars

The US Trade Agreement with China will benefit the automotive industry. But it will also hasten the demand for gasoline in China as technology and production move to the huge China market. Under the agreement, auto parts tariffs will be cut. General Motors/Shanghai Motors have already begun a joint venture. They are building Buicks at General Motors China. Production was to increase from 20,000 units in 1999 to 55,000 in 2000, to 100,000 in 2001. This agreement represents only a small fraction of China's potential demand for vehicles. The sale of vehicles could easily double each year for several years. In China, each new car sold probably represents a new car being driven every day (compared to the US, where an additional car in the family may only be driven when another one is not driven). Demand for gasoline will increase directly with auto sales -- and, for now, so will the demand for light, sweet crude oil on the world market.

Black Blade: Oil is depleting around the world and peak production could occur within the next 10 years. Third world countries like China will demand their share of oil resources as they continue to industrialize and the economy grows. Everything (economics, power, and money) revolves around "cheap" petroleum.

Blackjack (8/18/02; 04:45:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 83218)
Marconi bites the Dust, Bone Pile Mountain grows higher
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2201089.stm
Marconi shareholders are braced to see the value of their stock become almost worthless when a survival deal is signed later this week, reports say.

The troubled telecoms equipment firm is set to announce how it will restructure its crippling �4bn ($6.1bn) debt mountain.

Some newspaper reports suggest that Marconi will hand over all but 1% of the firm to its banks and creditors, while the Sunday Telegraph says it will go into "voluntary liquidation".

Either way, such a deal signals the end of the road for Marconi, once a champion of the new economy set to reap huge gains as telecoms systems were expanded and upgraded.

Following the collapse of the dot.com bubble, Marconi was left unable to pay debts run up during an ambitious international expansion programme in the late 1990s.
__________________________

Zurich, Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss Life may post a first- half loss of up to 3 billion Swiss francs ($2 billion) because of a slump in investments, SonntagsZeitung said, without citing anyone. Its first-half 2001 net income was 253 million francs.

Switzerland's largest life insurer may have lost 2.5 billion francs in investments, mainly on stock markets, in the first six months of the year, the newspaper said. The company wasn't immediately available to comment. Ruedi Bodenmann, head of risk management, wouldn't comment, the Swiss paper said.
__________________________
Buddy can you spare a Billion?

Black Blade (8/18/02; 04:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 83217)
The $64,000 Question on Natural Gas
http://www.renewwisconsin.org/cheapo/mv63002.html

Snippit:

The natural gas market has been unusually if not eerily quiet this year. After shooting up to $10/MMBtu in December 2000 and then tumbling below $3/MMBtu in early 2002, prices have remained relatively stable throughout this spring, hovering slightly above the $3 mark. Between a nearly 20% drop in industrial usage�a reaction to the price spike--and an exceptionally warm winter, natural gas storage levels are now double what they were a year ago. U.S. demand is expected to rebound to over 22 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) this year, and may even eclipse the 22.5 Tcf mark recorded in 2000. So is the coast clear? Is it safe for us to consign that nasty price spike to the dusty archives of academe and get after the Mirants, PG&Es and Calpines of the world to start building the merchant gas-fired generating capacity that they have permits for? About as safe as sleepwalking across an interstate highway during the afternoon rush hour.

Their current position represents a complete reversal of fortune from where things stood in January 2000, when IPPs, along with other "New Economy" high-flyers like the telecom industry and Internet start-ups, rode tall in the saddle as the bull market ascended to new highs. But all financial binges must come to an end, and when the revelers go home, someone has to come along and assess the mess left behind. As the speculative excesses of the late 1990's gave way to the proverbial morning after, investors woke up to the realization that economic slowdowns invariably dampen demand for electricity. Yet, according to EIA projections, demand is creeping up to 2000 levels, indicating that unless new sources of natural gas are tapped into and brought to market in the next six to nine months, we will experience another round of price volatility.

The deeper one digs into the natural gas supply picture, however, the darker it gets. Despite the fact that gas drillers operating in the U.S. completed 30% more wells last year than in 2000, setting an all-time record, output increased by a paltry 1.8%. With spot market prices too low to sustain the drilling boom that peaked last July, gas well completions are expected to sink to about 13,000 this year, a decline of more than 40% from last year's record total. Company president Matthew Simmons said: "Our firm (Simmons and Company) has just completed an incredibly intensive supply analysis on 53 counties in the state of Texas. These 53 counties represent 66% of Texas� gas supply. Texas represents 31% of total U.S. daily gas supply. Based on this study, I fear that U.S. natural gas supplies could fall as much as 10% in as little as six months from now. The drop could be close to double that amount by the time it bottoms."

Even if the expected dip in this year's output is no greater than 5%, "there is a good chance that the industry will not be able to get supplies back to the flat levels we enjoyed for the past eight years," Simmons said. In the course of exploiting domestic deposits of natural gas, energy companies tapped into the largest and most accessible fields first, then moved on to tighter and deeper pockets as depletion set in at the bigger fields. As we all know, the smaller and more inaccessible the deposit, the higher the cost of extraction on a per cubic foot basis. Another price shock in 2003 is a virtual certainty. What's not certain is whether the U.S. economy can grow at the price needed to keep natural gas supplies from contracting. So, the $64,000 question is this: can the natural gas industry ever again settle into a price range that can stabilize supplies without causing an economic train wreck? Unless and until that question is answered in the affirmative, it is not possible to lend any credence to official projections that call for increased supplies of natural gas, many more gas-fired power plants, and vigorous growth in GDP along the lines of the previous decade's expansion.

Black Blade: The deepening economic recession and warm weather are the main culprits in lower NG prices and large supply. However, drilling activity is very low and more recent reports indicate that production will fall off by 6% and with less production coming online we should see price spikes in a few months as I have suggested in the past. Injection rates have fallen off as well. If the economy is in "recovery" then that "recovery" is in serious doubt if NG energy prices increase.

Black Blade (8/18/02; 04:02:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 83216)
Hungry Emus Invade Australia Farms as Drought Worsens
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Latest%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APVykxBaWSHVuZ3J5

Snippit:

Orroroo, Australia, Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- About 300 hungry emus trek across Steven and Zeila Teague's farm in Australia each day, leaving behind a trail of chewed and trampled wheat stalks. Drought in Australia, the world's second-biggest wheat exporter, is forcing native animals off parched pastoral land and on to farms in search of food. Thousands of kangaroos and the ostrich-like emus have swarmed on to 300 farms near the Teague's property in the past month. ``There's no point in harvesting this year because there's only a quarter of the crop left,'' said Zeila Teague, who expects a A$50,000 ($27,000) drop in income this year from the farm at Orroroo, 300 kilometers (186 miles) north of Adelaide, in South Australia.

The El Nino-induced drought may cost A$1 billion in lost grain production and slow an economy that grew at more than 4 percent in the first quarter. It's already slashed cattle prices by 30 percent and cut sugar and cotton output. Companies, which sell farm equipment, such as Wesfarmers Ltd., said it may dent their sales. Australia ships about 15 percent of global trade in wheat, adding A$4.7 billion to the nation's export income in the year ended June 30. The current crop, to be harvested between October and February, is expected to be the smallest in seven years.

Black Blade: I hear emus are quite tasty though. However, a drought in OZ adds more pressure to the world grain supply. Enjoy a few good "cheap" barbeques in the meantime as ranchers sell off and flood the market with mammal flesh. Next year food prices could go through the roof as stored supply will be depleted and if the drought extends into next year and beyond it will be an absolute disaster. As always, get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months� expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It appears to be shaping up to be a difficult year ahead. Then again if you're in OZ a few emu and roo burgers might be OK.

Black Blade (8/18/02; 03:48:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 83215)
Rally May Fade Until Earnings Rise: Stocks Outlook
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APV5nVxUyUmFsbHkg

Snippit:

New York, Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The four-week rally in U.S. stocks may fade as investors temper their expectations for a rebound in corporate profits. A decline in earnings forecasts and a rise in stocks have made equities more expensive. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index traded for as little as 14 times estimates last month. The index now sells at 18 times forecasts. ``I am not overly optimistic,'' said Bill Turner, manager of the $1.4 billion One Group Mid Cap Value Fund. ``The earnings revisions continue to go down, and the economic indicators are benign at best and not signaling a robust recovery.''

Investor withdrawals from mutual funds may also limit gains. Stock funds reported outflows of $4.6 billion in the latest week, according to AMG Data Services. Equity funds lost more than $40 billion in July the largest monthly outflow since September 2001, AMG said. ``We are still selling into strength because people want their money back,'' said David Briggs, head equity trader at Federated Investors Inc., which manages about $185 billion in Pittsburgh. He said the firm's mutual funds were forced to sell $17 million of shares the past five days to repay investors pulling out. ``We have had a summer rally but it's not so safe to go back in,'' said Briggs. ``I see a lot of risk.''

Black Blade: The "real" earnings are much lower as the S&P measures what are essentially "operating earnings", though they now refer to these earnings as "core earnings". The stock index last traded at about 39 to 42 times earnings early last month. Meanwhile, investors just want out while the investment houses are propping up the indices for now. The question is how long they can keep it up as fund redemptions continue. Could get quite "interesting" in coming weeks.

Blackjack (8/18/02; 02:57:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 83214)
Headed into Depression?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman081902.html
One of the best prognosticators on Wall Street, Stephen Roach, of Morgan Stanley said, "I continue to believe that the balance of risks on the price front has shifted away from inflation to deflation. The evidence, in fact, is building that more than a casual whiff of deflation is already in the air in the US. Unfortunately, that's exactly what the model of the post-bubble economy would predict - an overhead of excess supply that could lead increasingly to widespread price destruction."

We finally have someone on Wall Street that agrees with us. We can imagine how the Lone Ranger felt. We now expect gold to rise to compensate for losses. It's called a flight to quality. We also expect that once it is obvious that we are headed into depression interest rates will move back upward as few want to lend due to the systemic problems in the financial system.

The financial system will freeze up. As gold moves up the derivative bubble will collapse taking a number of major world banks with it. Banks such as JP Morgan Chase, BofA, Citicorp and Goldman Sachs.

This will be an irretrievable blow to the elitist financial conspiracy and finally all their evil machinations will be laid bare for the whole world to see. They will no longer be the masters of the universe; we will have defeated them in spite of their enormous power.
________________
The US mint sold 48,000 gold Eagles in July or 60,500 ounces up 20.6% from a year earlier.

Belgian (8/18/02; 01:23:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 83213)
@ Sierra Madre @ Aristotle
SM : ...free coinage of silver...to prick the dollar balloon ? I don't see silver having that "omnipotence" as Gold does. Liked that word "omnipotence" you were using last night. Silver is not an official monetary reserve and comes second (to Gold) as a tangible for people's selfdefense against currency detoriations.
Silver could be inflamed by initiatives as those presented by Hugo Salinas (Mexico). IMO, silver is too isolated in contrast to the UNIVERSAL Gold. The signal function of silver is as good as the CRB-index. Silver will follow, not lead. Can silver unchain (cadenas) itself from its industrial constraints and act as a precious metal like in the good old days of the bi-mettalic standard ? I doubt it ?

Ari : ...An act of Congress to eleminate "counterfeit"...
A setting Free of Gold can come from so many different angles. Do you remember Hashimoto (1997) and his threat to the US about using Gold to discipline their monetary policies ?
The alpha and omega about Gold is not a US exclusivity and the chances that the US congress, acts, are imvho, very slim. At best it will be some postfactum clearing and covering for the past wrongdoings.

The Big Gold-Surprise can come from anywhere, anytime. Thanks Ari.

Black Blade (8/18/02; 00:35:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 83212)
Tokyo govt to deposit Y100 bln in Citibank
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020817/financial_tokyo_banks_1.html

Snippit:

TOKYO, Aug 17 (Reuters) - The Tokyo metropolitan government, which now has deposits only with Japanese banks, plans to deposit more than 100 billion yen, or $852 million, with major U.S. bank Citibank to diversify risk, the Yomiuri Shimbun said on Saturday. The report comes after Japan lifted last April a blanket deposit guarantee on time deposits, and ahead of the removal of a similar guarantee on ordinary savings accounts next April. The move, expected during the current fiscal year to next March, would make the Tokyo metropolitan government the first municipal government in Japan to deposit public funds with a foreign bank, the paper said, citing Tokyo government sources.

Black Blade: The Japanese government doesn't even trust its own banks. How the hell do they expect the Japanese people to have any confidence in the banking system if they themselves have no confidence and are bailing out before the next "April Fools Day Surprise"? No wonder the government wants to reduce deposit insurance for those foolish enough not to take the hint. I expect to see another "Japanese Gold Rush" as the deadline approaches.

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