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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/18/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Blackjack (8/18/02; 23:42:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 83254) Time is running out for Japan Tokyo, Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is backtracking on pledges to cut public-works spending and cap state insurance on bank deposits, leaving the country vulnerable to a further credit-rating cut, Standard and Poor's said. S&P cut Japan's local-currency rating one grade to a fourth- ranking AA- in April, saying the government wasn't acting fast enough to reduce national debt or force banks to dispose of bad loans. ``A string of policy decisions recently announced by the Japanese government appear to backtrack on reforms,'' S&P said in a report. ``Further delays in implementing structural reforms could adversely affect the ratings.'' Regulators said last month they may exempt some bank deposits from a plan to cap deposit insurance next April at 10 million yen ($84,807) per customer. Takahira Ogawa, S&P's director of Asian sovereign ratings, said that may signal Japan is reneging on a promise to force banks to dispose of bad loans within two years. ``Japan has no concrete plan to deal with the non-performing loan problem,'' Ogawa said in a phone interview. ``If there is further slipping of the pace of structural reform, we might have to downgrade our expectations of the government.'' The yen fell for a second day, trading at 117.88 to the dollar at 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 117.65 in New York Friday. The yen also weakened as the Nikkei 225 stock average shed 2.6 percent, reducing demand for the currency to buy shares. Bad Loans Japan's 704 lending institutions had 52.4 trillion yen in bad loans at the end of March, 22 percent more than a year earlier, the Financial Services Agency estimates. Bad loans are slowing an economic recovery by discouraging banks from extending credit to businesses. Bank lending hasn't risen since October 1996. Japan's decision to exempt some bank deposits from the insurance cap ``is a bit of a setback,'' Ogawa said. ``They have to tackle structural problems in the banking sector rather than easing incentives.'' The U.S. rating company cut its rating on Japan's yen- denominated bonds for a third time in 14 months in April, putting the rating on par with the Czech Republic and Israel. Japan's national debt will rise to 693 trillion yen by March, the government forecasts. That's equal to 140 percent of gross domestic product and would be the highest debt burden among industrialized nations. Time Running Out Other recent policy decisions also show Koizumi is backing down, Ogawa said in the report. Japan's cabinet earlier this month approved a 3 percent cut in spending on roads, dams and other public works for the year starting April 1, 2003, less than this year's 10 percent reduction. Koizumi's plan to open the postal system to private competition met such fierce opposition from fellow Liberal Democratic Party members that bills passed last month include tight restrictions on potential entrants to the mail-delivery market. Yamato Transport Co. Ltd. and other trucking companies have abandoned plans to compete with the government. Koizumi defended the plan, saying it's a first step toward further reforms. Ogawa said he doubted whether more meaningful changes would follow. ``Even if they say this is a strategic handling, whether the time is left (to carry out reforms) is another matter,'' Ogawa said. ``Time will not wait for this government.'' __________Japan debt 140% of GDP, US is about 60%, would Moody's downgradeuncle sam? Deflation in the air. Sierra Madre (8/18/02; 23:40:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 83253) Aristotle - Sierra here again. Sir:If you care to, please restate your views in such terms as can be clearly understood by a fairly intelligent teenager.Thank youSierra Sierra Madre (8/18/02; 23:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83252) Aristotle, with regard to your post 83233, address to me: Thanks for the thoughts! I cannot reply unless I first clearly grasp what you are saying.Your level of communication, may I say, is rather cryptic; I find I have to try to figure out what you are trying to say. Excuse this statement, it is not a criticism; to speak more clearly, your level of communication presupposes in me, a level of comprehension which allows for the omission of what to an informed reader, is superflous - but that is not my case.I am sure you have something valuable to say, and I thank you for the message. Will work on your statements and reply sometime later.Sierra goldquest (8/18/02; 22:06:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 83251) Wolkoff Believes In Transparency http://www.amm.com/ref/hot/HAM912.HTM for others! goldquest (8/18/02; 21:40:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83250) Neal Wolkoff http://www.ite.poly.edu/htmls/bio_neal.htm Not a Civil Servant, just an Uncivil A$$hole! shades (8/18/02; 21:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83249) ted butlers response to neil woltkoff I cant beleive the utter pomposity where an honest taxpayer can ask legitimate questions to a civil servant, and that said civil serpent (sic) demands no further correspondence from his true employer. What a sham time ,to get mad people steady (8/18/02; 21:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 83248) Mahendra Speaks! whether right or wrong i dont think he cares as long as his predictions get ink and his books get sold. maybe he is somehow conected with dr.no and hung fat! Rember this the usa is in the business of disinformation as well as information and if u have noticed the amout being spewed forth re iraq, who can really tell now whats real and whats fake> many times i feel as if im being used by them when i post info they have put out. whos aim am i serving? theres or mine? as an astute poster here said rely on your intuition even if it is a bit clouded righ t now it will never let you down. Try not to get caught up in there lil propaganda machine. Think for yourself and get as much gold as your own understanding allows you to to! slingshot (8/18/02; 21:10:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 83247) Silvercollector **************************** Precious metal quack! ROFLMAO.Quack, Quack, Quack. LOL :0)Slingshot---------------Quack. cyberbat (8/18/02; 21:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83246) an old nursery ryme I also predict that:Robber Rubin stood so tall;But Robber Rubin had a great fall;All the bank's money and all of his friends, Couldn't put Rubin back together again. mid-2003 or before silvercollector (8/18/02; 20:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83245) Hope everyone had a great week-end. I spent some time with my brother-in-law, the only man that I know who will tolerate more than 5 minutes of my PM 'speech'.We had gone fishing in the morning, got back to the cottage around noon, immediately got into the brew-skies and naturally into the discussion of investing. Three hours into it he threw up his hands and proclaimed that I was a 'precious metal quack'. I asked in bewilderment what that was and he informed he it was an investor long in PM's for eternity.I quickly responded , "I'm long right now, just in time for the bull".He laughed, "I was long in 'tech' in the late '90's, long real estate for the last 2 years and now am climbing aboard oil & gold, where have you been?""I've been in T-bills, cash; waiting for things to clear"He laughed again, "You're full of it John, you've been long gold since '87. The problem with you gold bugs is it's T-bills or gold, nothing in between. You guys are waiting to quintruple your money and I have already!"I felt pretty beat up by then and suddenly the right answer slapped me, "Well I am glad for you Derrick, now the trick is to hold your wealth through the upcoming storm.""You and your storms", he wailed."Well, you stay long your paper and I'll hold the gold and we shall see who crosses the finish line first, you're the hare and I'm the turtle, okay?"We laughed together, the bet is on!! goldquest (8/18/02; 20:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 83244) Get Your Gold http://www.almartinraw.com/column67.html before the politicians buy it all up and send it offshore! Trapper (8/18/02; 19:38:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83243) Sir Aristotle silver money Your exchange on the suggestion that sivler should be used as money was interesting. Do you know who was responsible for art.1 sec 10 of the US constitution? I thing the booklet he did says it all, but in out post constitutional America no one seems to care. Just let me get mine. God save the republic because we don't have the stomach for it anymore.Live small.RJ Slowman (8/18/02; 19:00:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 83242) Gold and Silver Just another comment about Early Sept. It looks to me like on or about Sept. 9 we will invade Irac. Been following ships being sent to fight terrorism about 3 weeks ago, the U.S.A. getting a ship recently to transport tanks, amo etc. to be dumped there no later than Aug. 31. Its comming together rapidly and should sky rocket metals shortly. Maybe these other fellows are looking at what I see in short future!!!! R Powell (8/18/02; 18:51:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 83241) Prediction While on the subject of prediction, I'll venture out on a limb and make some. I'll portend that the POG will be higher than the price of palladium before the end of this month. I'll also predict that the Kitco lease rates for gold as shown on their home page this weekend are not correct. However, if they are correct, then I'll prophesize $350 pog by month's end. Please remember only those predictions which prove to be correct! Thanks, Rich R Powell (8/18/02; 18:24:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 83240) Mahendra I mentioned and questioned Ma(hen)dra's prophesies and methods earlier today (83227). I haven't verified his track record but have heard his name mentioned repeatedly in different places. Some claim he has been correct in past predictions but, if you give me enough questions, and a choice of only two opposing answers (like up or down), I'll bet I can get close to half of them right! Then if I constantly remind everyone of my correct predictions while refusing to ever even acknowledge the existence of my wrong answers, well. Actually, the fine art of entrail reading, when properly conducted, is close to infallible but I can reveal no more. His prophesy, your predictions, technical projections, seasonal probabilities and long term cyclicals along with the basic fundamentals which usually support precious metal prices are all indicating higher. Sometimes patience is not easy to maintain but as much as I seek, I can find no reason why POS and POG will not become more precious. Hopefully Mahendra is a true sage! Rich mikal (8/18/02; 18:11:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83239) @MarketTalk It's good to hear from you. I have observed the predictions of the self-proclaimed Indian "astrologer and prophet", who is not in a "guru/mystic" in any traditional sense. From the postings on various gold forums and the man's own website, I have seen great discepancies. For example, since last year, at least, he has called for any specific and general metals price movements, that were not right even in a general time frame. This summer, he repeatedly revised his price predictions, and missed almost every time. Another area he touches, in an even more vague and general way, is the stock markets, again dismal, IMHO. His website is where he sells his books and fails to show the needed educational background in India, (an absolute minimum requirement). MarkeTalk (8/18/02; 17:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 83238) Mahendra Speaks! But Does Anyone Listen?? www.mahendraprophecy.com On Friday, a client of mine from New York (yes, there are gold bugs in New York City, believe it or not) told me about an Indian guru/mystic named Mahendra Sharma. He also told me he has been making some interesting predictions about the markets and world events. In particular, Mahendra is saying the prices of gold and silver (especially silver) will take off after September 2, 2002 and never look back. He gives no explanation other than the stars. While I don't believe in astrology, in my last post (message #83043) I gave other reasons why I believe the upcoming month of September will contain more than a few "upsets" in markets and world politics, thus pushing gold (and silver) way up.Question: Does anyone know what this guy's track record is? If he is right for whatever reason, then we have just 14 days to find out. Finally, another gold buyer called me on Friday and he lives in New Jersey. He is an Orthodox Jew who told me to watch the price of gold beginning on August 31st, saying that a geopolitical event could take place in the Middle East. He had his own methodology of arriving at this date. Needless to say, all methodologies aside, I believe we are standing at the forefront of moumental global events which, in hindsight, will shock us.Got gold? If not (or not enough), don't wait for world events to compel you to act! Call me here at Centennial on extension 102.GC Mr Gresham (8/18/02; 15:47:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 83237) Mauldin on US/Japan http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo081602 Looks good, but I gotta get outside in the sun! (NM in the hammock, after completing half of day's exercise -- BB needs a live "fish cam" so we can watch the whole of his exemplary lifestyle ;)Lady Siochaina -- enjoy Vermont! I'm on the verge of probably declining an invite there for next week, so I'll expect a full report when you're back ;)I've read incompletely here since 8/9 -- frustrating! -- all the Saudi news, and Belgian's been hot, too -- even the return of -- shock! -- DIALOGUE! (Thanks, Ari)I learned of the demise (heart disease) this week of an acquaintance (via e-mail exchange) whose work I greatly respect. Two months older than I. Needless to say, aside from sadness, health has been on my mind. Walking the paths of my old summer camp last month, in my now-quite-middle-aged body, has set me wondering just what goals are achievable. (As usual, I will probably over-do some things. But this is a fight for survival, and I face the opposition in the mirror each morning.)LIVE!!! -- to enjoy ALL of your Golden blessings... Mr Gresham (8/18/02; 15:36:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 83236) Fleck http://money.msn.com/content/p28324.asp Enjoying his bully pulpit, on Cognex' CEO candor (good), Glassman (bad) and the general view as things deteriorate.Did anyone put up a Mauldin link on Japan-style deflation? I'll put that here next; it was in this window before, then another click took me out of there somehow... Siochaina (8/18/02; 14:59:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 83235) Off for Vacation Well the last few business trips I took....gold went up nicely....so I am hoping my vacation in Vermont mountains leads to sameAnd for good luck...just added some more gold!!! slingshot (8/18/02; 14:48:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 83234) Waverider Siege Engine Yepper, the story is heating up. Wine, women and song. Deadly combination for any soldier. :0)Slingshot--------------<> Aristotle (8/18/02; 13:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 83233) Exploration of Sierra Madre I noted your comment yesterday, and acknowledge that this has been a regular theme with you. Somehow I've never gotten around to chatting with you about it in the detail it deserves. I think the topic and outcome would be instructive for all Gold advocates, even thought the topic is silver. The parallel with Gold should be obvious. You wrote:"what if ONE country decided to allow free coinage of silver?"My first question: Realistically, why would any thoughtful and civilized country want to follow through with such a thing? Sure, superficially there may be some attractive inflation-busting notions among hyperinflation-prone countries, but that would be like putting someone in a small jail cell as a cure for a sprained ankle. Sure, the ankle will heal with the restrictions on mobility, but at what greater sacrifice?Argentina tried to do a similar thing but with dollars in place of silver, and yet just look at the very predictable consequences (economic recession and a systemic collapse of the banking system) as the price they paid for arresting their inflationary tendencies through this ill-advised scheme. The money supply (and the attendant pricing) was ultimately too restricting for the patient to thrive.My view, shared by many others who have given serious consideration to such things, is that it's a sad waste of useful resources to employ such things as silver in the manufacture of national currencies which merely symbolize the monetary unit and give it portability without losing its monetary pedigree while passing through the hands and pockets of any NON-banking entities. (By contrast, bank-to-bank transfers of money don't require this special physical quality assurance because the pedigree is never under question if the money doesn't actually leave the house.)I realize that last bit was an ear full (and a mind full) but please give it some thought until you grasp it. At this point, I'm not so adamant that you agree with it (yet) but rather that you merely comprehend the meaning of what is being set forth.If you'll then recognize and accept the fact that vastly more money exists in the form of "in house" digital/ledger bank money than as physical currency money, then the folly of tying up valuable resources in the manufacture of currency presents itself as an argument better than any other I could possibly make on the point.To mix up a physical commodity (Gold, silver, or whatnot) in the monetary realm is only to cheapen the nature of that physical thing. Through the normal and "innocent" banking process, the commodity is effectively INFLATED in supply and at the same time SOLD SHORT by everyone who takes out a loan of money to buy something.Simply put, to have Gold or silver be employed as monetary currency is to ask the world to join en masse as short sellers in conjuring an inflated supply (through a feeble delusion that aggregate loan contracts to deliver future is as reliable wealth as physical already in hand.)Do you think I'm missing the boat? Before you answer, please bear in mind that this is a discussion about the real world as it is, not about our own petty desires about it *could* be if only we sat upon God's throne all powerful to "make it so."Gold. Get you some physical Property. --- Aristotle Waverider (8/18/02; 12:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 83232) MoVerMeg Got it!!! Thanks! Waverider (8/18/02; 12:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83231) Siege Engine Gold above $300.00 As the Great Wizard was in The Valley of the Clouds and The Council was deep in thought, a new plan was in process...but of course it would need the approval of The Council. It seemed there were now two major challenges...the first was overcoming the despair that had infiltrated the hearts of the Knights. Strengthening their hearts would be the responsibility of The Council - they would reiterate The Moral Law of the Goldbugs which would renew and compel them to be in complete accord with Sir Howe, so that they would follow regardless of their lives, and be undismayed by any danger or obstacles. The Council would review with their Knights the following key deliberations: (1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law? (2) Which of the two generals has the most ability? (3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth? (4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced? (5) Which army is stronger? (6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained? The Council inherently knew the True answers to all of these questions, but they also knew the Knights needed renewed nourishment with this knowledge.The second challenge was to develop a strategy for taking the remaining castles. Lady Waverider contemplated the options and set forth to present two strategies to The Council. They would dissect the plan in microscopic detail for the quality of their decision was liken to the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim. As per the great military strategist Sun Tze, there are not more than two methods of attack in battle - the direct and the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of maneuvers. Her strategy combined both - she would suggest the use of spies to penetrate the enemy. Two types would be employed...first converted spies - some of the captured enemy who had valuable knowledge had capitulated and joined the army of Goldbugs - they would be used to acquire further information and would plant local spies in many of the castles. Lady Waverider would also offer herself to be a spy to infiltrate the enemy castles and to bring back what news she could from the enemy's camp. Her plan was still subject to approval, and despite it seeming flawless, it was terribly dangerous. She belonged to the local dance entourage which performed in various castles during celebratory events. Because of her political affiliation she had not joined in the castle performances. She would dance in the next to celebrate the autumn harvest on the 3rd full moon and, along with the other dancers, intoxicate the army with their music, their movements, and with wine. Then...she would administer the true toxin - tincture of hemlock to the gate guards! The timing must be perfect so she could leave the castle with the dance ensemble before anyone was aware of the deadly poison. A predetermined sign, the cry of a night owl, would indicate that her mission had been accomplished and would signal the Knights to commence their siege of the castle... shades (8/18/02; 11:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 83230) coincidence I wonder if there is anything to go by when kitcos and london bullion market lease rates are only current to thursday and Jim Sinclairs response to an email that " Monday will tell "? USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/18/02; 11:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 83229) The acquisition of knowledge is a man's gift to himself. http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
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