 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/18/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 23:11:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 52150)
Parsifal, thanks for sharing that first post of the day by Milhouse
In those few words reposted from "Physical versus Paper", longtime visitors of this forum can clearly see that not all of gold analysts (even those with best intentions) have yet fully grasped the fundamentals. I encourage Mr. Milhouse to root around in our archives for the ample commentary painting a more accurate correlation between derivatives, pricing, leasing, and supply than the position he presents in that excerpt of commentary. He has seemingly lost an element of the interplay that I remember being covered here long ago. If I can find it treated succinctly in a self-contained post (rather than through series of back-and-forth discussion) I'll post it for the edification of our newly arrived forum members.
gidsek
(04/18/01; 21:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 52149)
Gold Trail
"almost Renoirs" makes me laugh.
Years ago a room-mate of mine dashed into the pub with a wild look in his eye, waving a copy of Sports Illustrated.
"That girl I brought home last night! That was Kathy Irelands' COUSIN!"
gidsek
Lafisrap
(04/18/01; 21:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 52148)
COMEX gold and silver stocks dropped a little more today
http://www.futuresource.com/search.asp?source=story¶m='id=i4142900594476908545'&filename=story
Anyone know if this data is charted somewhere? I would like to watch the trends, and I heard a rumor that COMEX gold stocks are down over 40 per-cent in the last few months. Wow, if that trend exists, and if it continues for a few more months, then the stock of physical gold backing COMEX would no longer exist, well, not as COMEX gold stock.
Perhaps CBs will drive the POG down much lower. Heh, perhaps CBs will funnel physical into COMEX. Then, just as all things are not what they seem in the treachery of currencies, gold, CBs, and international finance, imagine how humorous the twist of fate when COMEX becomes the physical market for gold, and at very, very low prices too. Perhaps COMEX will just be shut down when their stocks are sold.
***
COMEX gold and silver warehouse stocks-April 18
Data are in troy ounces as of the close of business today.
Gold
.....begin-Ttl..Rcvd...Wthdrwn .chng...Adjstmnt..end-Ttl
Reg....904,986....0....1,500....-1,500....0....903,486
Elig...109,628....0........0.........0....0....109,628
Ttl..1,014,614....0....1,500....-1,500....0..1,013,114
Silver
.....begin-Ttl..Rcvd...Wthdrwn .chng...Adjstmnt..end-Ttl
Reg..63,441,189..0.......0.......0....622,702...64,063,891
Elig.32,302,664..0......968.....-968..-622,702..31,678,994
Ttl..95,743,853..0......968.....-968.......0....95,742,885
auspec
(04/18/01; 21:42:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 52147)
Tree in the Forest
http://www.gloomdoom.com/04-17-01.html
Thanks for your silver thoughts! Part of the difficulty with timing the silver bull is that {like gold} NO ONE KNOWS THE EXACT AMOUNT OF ABOVE GROUND SILVER SUPPLY. Ted Butler has freely admitted this to me and he is certainly in a position to know as much as anyone. We are working off of ESTIMATES in OBSCURE markets so when they 'hit the wall' is hard to predict.. Ted also said he thought the silver figures were "generally accurate", but there could even be a 18 month or so unknown supply. I say "so what?"; gives us a bit more time to buy silver along with the yellow. They are travelling pretty fast and it's going to be a spectacle when the wall is impacted.
Did you read the following exchange from James Cook and Ted Butler? Repeat of earlier link today, thank you.
Cook: "I'm always astonished when you say there's more gold in the world than silver."
Butler: "There's ten times as much gold verified to exist than silver." END
Key word from Butler is "verified" as discussed in 1st paragraph. Will again quote Butler: "Yes, there is silver in the world that isn't being counted, but it's the same with gold. Remember, all the gold is still with us but the silver has been consumed. There's been a big defecit every year for the past 50 years." He also states silver supplies "are coming from inventories, primarily central bank leasing, every single day also." Same M.O. as gold, and yet he cannot find supply beyond 125 million ounces on a VERIFIED basis for silver.
Your China piece of the puzzle is quite intriguing. They do have a bit of leverage with their silver as well as their dollars, actually pretty smart of them to have purchased so many dollars to hold as trump card. We couldn't possibly be stupid enough to go to war with the Chinese as there would be no winner from same. Huff and puff will suffice.
Answer to your question "from whence cometh physical silver needed and used by industry today?" From the very bottom of the pile, my friend!
au{&ag}spec
Shermag
(04/18/01; 21:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 52146)
Journeyman: QUESTION OF THE DAY
"Go out and buy something," he told them.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: What's wrong with that?
Although popular belief has it that increased consumption would be the fix to an ailing economy, this would simply be engaging in more of the very activity that is destroying the vitality of the economy. What North America desperately needs is to SAVE. It needs to produce more than it consumes. A wise contributor to this forum, whose name escapes me, recently put it succintly with the following: "When you find yourself in a hole, the first rule is stop digging".
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 20:36:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 52145)
Didn't Seiko have this ad slogan? "Someday, all watches will be made this way."
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010418/n18685619_3.html
HEADLINE: [Argentine Economy Minister] Cavallo Sells Argentina Plan to Brazil
This story picks up where we left off with yesterday's article on the forum announcing Argenina's plan to replace the decade-old dollar peg (requiring one dollar in reserves for every peso in circulation) with a 50-50 mix of dallars and euros.
To calm the market jitters of his Brazillian neighbors who were fearful that it would facilitate a devaluation of the peso, this old Harvard man said the plan would commence when the euro reached parity with the dollar, boasting further, "I bet you that in 10 years the currency of Mercosur and of South America will be a currency like this one we are taking up."
While the Brazillian currency itself was busy probing lifetime lows, Brazil's Finance Minister cautioned that it was premature to speak of a common South American currency, but admitted that EcMin Cavallo's plan was "coherent" according to this Reuter's report.
In distant time, when Argentina gets its financial house in order, you can expect to see this new peg removed for a floating peso, and a future reserve structure built upon free market gold and just enough holdings of foreign denominated bonds/currencies to lubricate international settlements.
R Powell
(04/18/01; 20:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52144)
Black Blade
Thanks for the news and the link concerning Harmony.
If a few more similar news items get some publicity, we'll see if the laws of supply and demand have lost all consequence in the gold market. Low prices are supposed to be the best cure for low prices, reducing production, but IMHO only in freely traded markets, no?
Rich
Gold Trail Update
(04/18/01; 20:20:07MDT - Msg ID:52143)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Tree in the Forest
(04/18/01; 20:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 52142)
Whither silver?
After 11 years of demand exceeding supply, from whence cometh physical silver needed and used by industry today? This inadequate supply includes all metal recovered from various scrap and metal recovery operations. The situation can only deteriorate as energy shortages cause mines to shut down. So where's the extra metal coming from? At one time, it could have been argued that the US was supplying it because until recently, the US had an enormous silver stash (billions of ounces). But as we now know, this is gone. While gold is easily supplied from CBs and they have plenty of gold, they don't have silver. They can easily maintain the gold charade even if all gold mines shut down! But not silver. If indeed the needed physical silver is coming from China, then silver is currently supported on Comex thanks to the Chinese. This begs the question, for how long will the Chinese continue doing us this little favor, which certainly costs them a significant amount of profit on their metal? One could also ask several other questions such as for how long will the ECB continue supporting the dollar and suppressing gold also at their cost. In fact for how long will the entire world including poorer countries which are suffering under continued dollar hegemony continue to support the US stockmarket, the US dollar, US bonds, the Comex precious metals, the California grasshoppers, Ma and Pa Kettles SUV's etc. etc? If you believe this will continue indefinitely, why are you here? Go in peace and best of luck! On the other hand, if you believe that this little game of supporting the US at any cost is soon coming to an end; that the ECB is getting ready to stop supporting the dollar and the stockmarket; that those who have suppressed Comex gold are ready to end this game; that countries like Japan and China are getting ready to sell enormous quatities of US bonds; if you believe this, what possible motive could our good buddies the Red Chinese have for continuing to hold up silver? They and their associates will crash everything else but silver, no way? I find this hard to believe especially if we are at war with them. I see no reason for any country to be supporting the US financially at this time and assume that they are only waiting for the right moment to end this costly escapade. The right moment could indeed be beesting's August date for the 30 year conclusion of the US bankruptcy proceeding. As to the possibility of war with China, this is an excerpt from Stratfor:
"If U.S.-China relations enter a lengthy period of deterioration, the armed forces of both powers will probably compete for regional influence despite the unparalleled military might of the United States. A major effort to contain a China bent on using a limited set of strategic capabilities to undercut American dominance would require the Pentagon to retune many of its plans.
Ultimately, Beijing cannot keep up with Washington in a long-term competition for military dominance. But in the next five to 10 years, the playing field will likely host a heated contest.
Analysis
U.S.-China relations have been deteriorating for some time over several contentious security questions. The recent collision of a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter over the South China Sea is one of several issues in recent years that have not boded well for the relationship. With the election of U.S. President George W. Bush, who described China as a strategic competitor as opposed to a strategic partner during the election campaign, Beijing and Washington have moved further apart on these contentious issues. These disagreements could significantly degrade relations, leading the two nations' militaries to increasingly confront each other in East Asia as they compete for regional hegemony."
Canuck
(04/18/01; 20:12:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 52141)
@ Randy
Thank you Sir, I'll be watching.
Black Blade
(04/18/01; 19:29:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 52140)
Harmony to close SA shaft, mothball Canadian operation
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,833042-6080-0,00.html
Snippit:
THE SA gold mining company Harmony is to close the number four shaft at its Randfontein mine, CE Bernard Swanepoel said on Wednesday. Turning to Bissett, Harmony's mine in Manitoba province, in Canada, Swanepoel said a gold price of U$300/oz was required for the operation to be profitable. "I also think 30% to 40% of the world's gold production should be placed on care and maintenance, but it doesn't seem to be a view shared by the rest of the industry," he said.
Black Blade: Looks as if Harmony (HGMCY) is doing the right thing and not caving in to the loan sharks (Bullion Bankers). If 30% to 40% of unprofitable gold production were to cease, then the drop in supply would certainly pressure the gold lenders and shorts with a corresponding rise in the POG.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 19:26:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 52139)
Canuck,
In my next round of posting I'm scheduled to provide the latest reserve data that may help you fill in some of the figures your looking for.
Black Blade
(04/18/01; 18:35:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 52138)
After Hours
http://toplist.island.com/toplist/top20.jsp?AH=on
"Irrational exhuberance" is still with us.With earnings still far lower than last year, the market still marches on. The Fed rate cut came before the May 15 meeting and that should give investors some concern. Does the Fed see some real serious problems on the horizon that warrant an interim half point rate cut? Caveat Emptor. Hmmm...
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/18/01; 17:59:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 52137)
"Busting Out the Joint"
http://www.mips1.net/MGCurve.nsf/Current/8525686A00324CF585256A2C0067A375?OpenDocument
Another way to veiw hedging -
It is called "Busting Out a Joint." It works like this: The individual (or business) gets his tit caught in a wringer and needs to get protection or cash to keep afloat. He usually has to go to criminal types (loan sharks) for "help." When he signs this pact with the devil it is only a matter of time before the inevitable occurs. If the business can't meet it's payments it goes out of business. Usually the product and assets are stripped over a period of time by these newly acquired bankers (loan sharks). Then the business is destroyed. In the end the business is torched. In Mafia parlance it is called "Busting Out The Joint."
The hedged miners find themselves in a similar situation. Ashanti (ASL) and Cambior (CBJ) have already been "Busted Out" and for Barrick (ABX) and AngloGold (AU) it is only a matter of time. They have made a pact with the devil by getting in bed with the Mafia (Bullion Bankers). When POG rises these poor companies will be "Busted Out" leaving their shareholders poorer for the experience.
- Black Blade
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 17:53:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 52136)
Thanks, Black Blade
Since you mentioned Jeff, I'll interject for those wondering who he might be. Jeff is nothing less than a vice president for the company MK and Centennial has chosen for the web hosting requirements of this website. Whenever the server goes down in the middle of the night wherever it is, it is Jeff or one of his minions who catches the heat, and has to crawl out of bed to kick something or other, or make sure the plugs are all in the right sockets. He has also proven to be a valuable resource each time I've needed technical advice, such as was needed in some elements for setting up the Live News feed on the Daily Market Report page. I, too, give him high marks for his service throughout my association.
Black Blade
(04/18/01; 17:35:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 52135)
RE: Lowly Randy? #52131
Lowly Randy ;-) Come now, you've all done an excellent job. I've been a lurker on this site almost from day one and have watched this site evolve along with the writings of many posters. Though a few posters have come and gone, others remain and new ones arrive with fresh ideas. Lowly? I don't think so. You, Jeff, and MK have done well. Thank you.
- Black Blade
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 17:23:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 52134)
You are newly arrived to thoughts of gold, and you are wondering, "Is this a good price to buy?"
http://www.mips1.net/MGCurve.nsf/Current/8525686A00324CF585256A2C0067A375?OpenDocument
Let this comment to Bloomberg News by a major miner be your guide to bargain shopping for a world class physical asset called 'gold':
"We are still guilty of oversupplying the market, producing gold at a loss, thanks to the hedge books that are in place. This is the reality of an industry that is receiving a price that is lower than the sustainable level." --Harmony's CE Bernard Swanepoel
Journeyman
(04/18/01; 17:07:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 52133)
QUESTION OF THE DAY: What's wrong with that?
Beginning on Jan 3, 2001, the U.S Federal Reserve began the most
agressive interest rate cut regimin in it's history - - - 200
basis points in just 105 days. The 50 basis point cut on Jan. 3
was followed by another on Jan. 31, one on March 20 and now the
latest today, April 18. The first runner-up to this impressive
Hail Mary interest rate performance was the 200 basis point cut
over a period of 314 days in 1986. The FED gave the "negative
wealth effect" as one of the excuses.
TRANSLATION: If the stock market goes back up, people who have
been counting their perceived stock value as part of their wealth
will continue spending and, as Dallas FED Chairman Robert McTeer
suggest:
"If we all join hands together and buy a new SUV, everything will
be OK," said the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
[Speaking to the Richardson chamber of commerce]. ... McTeer
closed by telling the business leaders of a simpler plan to boost
the economy: "Go out and buy something," he told them.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: What's wrong with that?
Regards,
Journeyman
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 17:03:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 52132)
Euro rate request by Econoclast...
The key ECB rate (i.e. the minimum bid rate for main refinancing operations) is 4.75%.
I hope this helps.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 16:50:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 52131)
Mr. Gresham, RE: "bridging worlds"
Thank you for the affirmation that I am succeeding at least by some small degree in what has become my charge.
Truly, the credit goes to MK for taking a chance long ago on his hunch when he sought to contact the anonymous founder of this "Tower" to solicit an ally for regular assistance in enhancing the function, information and general services offered to Centennial's valued clientele via this website. (Can anyone here even remember the old look with the spinning Earth graphics? This new look is like candy, with quick download times and easy navigability, agreed?) And so it has come to pass over time that you have come to know me, lowly Randy. Yet, as flesh and blood relation to The Tower's founder, I consider it moreso an uplifting honor that these various duties (some mundane, some thought provoking) to have been entrusted and placed upon my narrow shoulders.
I can relate to the staunchest of anti-establishment, hard-money gold standard views I often see espoused here because I was myself once philosophically entrenched in that camp, and there my sympathies remain. However, as life experience and exposure to business realities have daily forced me to confront the real world, my eyes have been opened to the primary task at hand for most people, that is, survival in the world as we find it.
Sure, it is true... we can all raise an effort to bring about positive change, and I've touched on that many times in prior posts. But I would be doing Micheal's pragmatic, esteemed and successful assortment of clientele a disservice if I didn't keep them apprised of the economic realities of the day by choosing instead to fill their heads with idealistic banter. Those musings certainly have their merit, but those ministrations will have to come from other emissaries (such as ET?) with my absolute blessing. Though as it is, I'm sure many of Centennial's clientele would agree that the practical economic insights they find on these pages are in fact worth well beyond the price of admission. (To that end, please show your due support by considering Centennial to fill your physical precious metal needs. (You see, the web server host (Jeff and Co.) sends MK a bill for the storage space and server bandwidth being used each and every month.)
This is necessarily just a small glimpse of the big picture, but perhaps it explains why my focus is toward "bridging worlds" to help you see things from an uncommon perspective. And in my estimate, the collective efforts from "The Tower" place a distant "last" behind the efforts of ANOTHER and FOA from regions unknown. But I thank you for picking me out nonetheless for your kind words of support.
Black Blade
(04/18/01; 16:45:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 52130)
RE: Econoclast
You might want to look into AG testimony before the Senate (ie. Humphey-Hawkins testimony). I did not notice it in the listing of speeches. I recall that both times it was mentioned, it was while I was listening to his grilling before the senate (perhaps banking committee). I seem to recall that it was during the Q&A session. I just haven't had time to dig around that much. Good luck.
- Black Blade
Econoclast
(04/18/01; 16:36:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 52129)
T-Bill Carry Trade?
How about a dollar carry trade? Is that how they're going to stimulate dollar demand now? What is the Euro interest rate by the way?
Thanks Black Blade and Iron Head for the help yesterday. Between the two posts, I started digging. So far, all I've found are a couple quotes saying that energy prices, By Themselves, won't drive inflation. I am looking for something even more foolish, that would make clear to Anyone the absurdity.
Great link posted by Steve H. Thanks.
Trail Guide's post on the tarnish of silver challenges the contrarian in me.
R Powell
(04/18/01; 16:31:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 52128)
Repayment in kind
Forgot to mention a warning. If you enter the T-bill carry trade and decide to finance gold through the sale of bills and then also lease out the gold, be sure to specify that, when the lease expires and gold is returned, it must be returned with the interest also paid in gold.
Further warning- the borrowers may have trouble returning your gold (depending upon market conditions) so perhaps approprite precautions should be considered as in other collatoral. It is probably safer to hold and wait for POG to rise. Then a small portion can be sold to return the borrowed T-bills.
Don't worry about repayment of the T-bills as a cartel of investors in the carry trade stands ready to hammer the price of bills in the unlikely event that they start to rise in price. Disclaimer- there is risk involved in participating in the T-bill carry trade!
Rich
auspec
(04/18/01; 16:27:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 52127)
Metamorphosis
Belgian # 52085:* US* and *THEM*
Per your post: "Isn't it time for drastic change ! For ALL goldholders !
We must signal the Value of the gold we are holding against all other depreciations. Simply by holding that physical Gold in our fists. Goldmine shareholders pressing for holding on the underground reserves, instead of shortsighted profits and dividends. Citizens with a vote for public gold politicians.Official goldholders promoting free valuation of gold with its benign signal and beakon functions. Give Gold the ability to prevent a fiat collapse. Give Gold the ability to foster Worldly Balance. Let the citizens decide on valuation. Allow economics to regulate and adjust itself. Intervention got out of hand and have the courage to restore natural balance.
But politicians are the last ones who need Gold ! They just keep printing and grab whatever amount of fiat they can get, for personal wellbeing. Naieve and childish, isn't it!"
END
Sir, where once you were a GoldBug, and then became a Gold Advocate, you now are taking on the appearance and characteristics of the esteemed Gold Activist! May you "hasten the day".
CoBra(too)
(04/18/01; 16:20:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 52126)
@ MK ... PS you've got mail
Sorry about omission ... tsk..
CoBra(too)
(04/18/01; 16:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 52125)
Stranger and @ All
Inflation - deflation - can't let either run "amok" - it's enough letting the old FOMC men run amuck around the clock.
First raising rates on fear of ever inflating bubbles, is it debt, R-E Fannies or Freddies, financial markets, derivative hedging - too big for the invited counter party's to attend the same game - and then to back off and cut and run - the rates, (my son) have been slashed by 200 bp's in a mostly surprise fashion, re-inflating all deflating bubbles and bashing the former resolve - due to severe miscalculation of the defects of unabashed printing press effects, leading to irreversible situations as J.W. Goethe may have described in "Der Zauberlehrling".
As it seems, AG may not even qualify as an adept to this magician - as he may never have had the opportunity to grab the handle of the broom, as he was inept to handle the Fiat Zoom. ... and as we remember everything was flooded in the end by a mounting tide of water - akin to ORO's big float - and neither the Atlantic, nor the Pacific will serve as a moat.
Best - cb2
PS: you've got mail
PPS: Sorry for not responding lately, due to family
pressures.
Mr Gresham
(04/18/01; 16:15:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 52124)
R Powell: Treasury/gold carry
I see your sense of justice, as well as irony, is in full force as ever. Turnabout is fair play, eh? (Now if we could just find where to borrow those Yen to make it complete?)
R Powell
(04/18/01; 16:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 52123)
Treasury bill carry
With Fed. fund rates coming down for the fourth time this year and gold lease rates rising, we may have to give serious consideration to borrowing Treasuries, selling them immediately for dollars in order to buy gold. If rates continue in their present trend, this may soon become profitable. We could call it the T-bill carry trade. It should also work with bonds, again forward sell the bonds for dollars and trade dollars for gold or silver.
Hold the metals until they double or triple in price, then reverse the process for an outrageous profit. An added benefit is the deterioration in value of the borrowed paper money so that less real repayment can be made, and that with "cheaper" dollars.
Any thoughts?
Rich
R Powell
(04/18/01; 15:54:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 52122)
Two and one half today, out of three
POG and the precious metals mining stocks index closed higher today. The one and three month lease rates were down just a little while the six and twelve month rates were higher just a little.
Parsifal, thanks for the heads up on the Cook and Butler article. Ted Bulter has knowledge and many years of watching but refuses to believe that it's lawful to have contracts for more (quantity) of a traded commodity than presently exists. Almost all commodities (grains, metals, fibers and softs) commonly see open interest totaling more than physically exists. However, not many have years worth of production leased and sold or simply forward sold as is the case with gold and silver. If only a small number of those existing contracts requested delivery, we'd be in business! Then all shorts would have to cover. Probably not possible with any price less than four digits/ounce. Wouldn't that be nice.
Rich
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 15:18:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52121)
Removing yet another potential leg of support for the dollar while also easing local pressure on price inflation
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=iol987614483774F652&set_id=60
HEADLINE: France set to relax money laundering laws for euro changeover
Excerpts:
--- The legislation is to relax the 1996 law on money laundering to protect bank tellers and agents from becoming liable when they change large sums of franc notes and coins into euros.
...The legislation is aimed at avoiding a nightmare for French people who want to change their cash nest eggs into euros. Some of the hoarded money is believed to have avoided the taxman's gaze. ...Banks had requested the legislative change for the changeover period.----
In advance of the euro currency changeover that begins in eight months, it has been observed that some of these cash "nesteggs" have begun to come out of hiding to bid for other items and perhaps dollars on a "secondary market". This current "need" to spend looks to be fading shortly. Nevertheless, Centennial would still welcome the opportunity to help any of our French friends diversify their paper holdings into the ultimate safe harbor....gold. The same offer is also extended to our other friends throughout the European Union.
Mr Gresham
(04/18/01; 15:05:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 52120)
Gandalf the White (04/18/01; 12:29:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 52103)
http://www.kitco.com/cgi-bin/daily_graphs.cgi
Gandalf - Thank you for bringing back Leigh's posting from 9/21/99 about the Welcoming for Sirs FOA and Another. It was a keeper then, and it is stirring now.
Also, (link) recall what happened a few short days (9/27/99) later.
Stranger & Camel: Thanks for illuminating the moves behind these markets.
Randy: I feel more and more like in college, where I was learning a helluva lot, but the sense of detachment from the real world experience was further highlighted the farther we got into our "book l'arnin'". Not that I'd want to get out in the trading pits to learn how these markets move -- I think Another is saying that even, or especially, these people are hypnotized by their close daily work and have lost all perspective on gold's real worth. Meanwhile, the few who know won't, or can't, speak fully of it. IMO, you do an excellent job of bridging those worlds for me and others and getting us as close to understanding the big picture from the outsider's view. Thanks!
Parsifal
(04/18/01; 14:52:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 52119)
When? How high?
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr18apr01.html
Prices for gold and silver are both down, and for many years all predictions that they will rise have been wrong. I hope this changes soon.
Excerpt from the link above:
***
Growing concern over environmental and health related issues is boosting silver consumption worldwide. Silver, a versatile metal, has many unique characteristics, which make its use indispensable in a wide-range of industrial applications. Industrial use of silver today represents roughly 40 percent of annual silver fabrication demand. Worldwide silver consumption for industrial applications grew 25 percent between 1990 and 1999.
***
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 14:49:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 52118)
ANOTHER, I would be a clod if I didn't promptly thank you for your kind words of support
Thank you, also, for once again joining our forum of posters in the generous sharing of time to advance the common understanding of wealth and money with uncommonly high-quality thoughts of gold.
Your early warnings (nearly four years ago!) and FOA's tireless dedication to illuminating these thoughts have certainly and irrevocably set you both apart as icons in this field. You continue to hold my deepest respect. Best regards ---Randy
Parsifal
(04/18/01; 14:43:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 52117)
Drop in U.S. dollar
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/chart.cgi?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=1&a=1&v=s
Very steep drop at about 10:00 to 11:00 am.
Camel
(04/18/01; 14:34:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 52116)
Rate Cuts
Looks like Wim D. and Easy Al are finally eyeball to eyeball. The ECB held steady on interest rates trying to drive down the dollar and Al countered by lowering to drive up the stock market and keep the dollar strong, like two big four riggers exchanging a round of cannonfire.
Ole Wim really stuck his neck out on that one.Isn't he in the middle of an eight year term that he promised to turn over to the French half way through.Interest rates must be pretty close to parity after today. They are betting that they can bring money to the Euro with a smaller spread and Greenspan seems to think he can keep international money going into the stock market. He may be pushing on a string this time.
Black Blade
(04/18/01; 14:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 52115)
UPDATE 2-U.S. gasoline inventories lowest in 30 years
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2001/04/18/rtr237256.html;$sessionid$4RLZEDYAABAKVQFIAGWCFEY
Have a nice summer...
Snippit:
WASHINGTON(Reuters) - U.S. inventories of gasoline heading into summer driving season at the end of March stood at their lowest level in more than 30 years, according to the American Petroleum Institute's latest statistical report released Wednesday. API said refinery activity slowed seasonally from the fourth quarter's high rates as many refiners performed springtime maintenance in advance of the summer driving season. Refinery inputs still topped year-ago levels for the first quarter by more than 3 percent.
Black Blade: A larger than expected increase in API crude oil inventory estimates hasn't helped much. Gasoline inventories are extremely short and refinery capacity is problematic.
TheStranger
(04/18/01; 14:18:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 52114)
Addendum To My Prior Post
It probably isn't necessary to point this out, but, if my analysis is correct, Gold is essentially a risk-free investment at current prices. At least to those who are purchasing in U.S. dollars, that is.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 14:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 52113)
Domestic clientele of Centennial....your April News & Views should now be in your postal carriers' hands
http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html
But you can join our international clientele by accessing the online pdf file for the April newsletter at the Commentary & Review page. (Just scroll down the page...you'll find it!)
If you are new to this USAGOLD website, show your interest and support by clicking the "(Request Info)" link at the top of the page. Centennial will be happy to mail you an informative packet that will help you position yourself to add precious metals to your portfolio when you come to see that the events we have been describing here are indeed unfolding. Meaning, the Federal Reserve will continue to act to "save" the banks at the expense of sacrificing the "strong dollar", and that the international bond holders will act to save themselves by fleeing to an alternative system (i.e. euros and gold). Please read comments offered on yesterday's forum if you missed them.
TheStranger
(04/18/01; 14:03:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 52112)
"The 5th Horseman" or "Why Lease Rates Will Not Be Going Back Down To 1% In The Foreseeable Future"
Despite the inflation taking place in oil, health care, housing and food, there is a severe DEflation happening in some other areas, principally technology. There isn't much the Fed can do to solve this problem in the short run. Nonetheless, they and other central banks, see the risk of a general deflation to the world economy and are going to do whatever they can to avert catastrophe. One sign of health, believe it or not, would be a cessation of the trashing of gold. This is the real reason why lease rates have been raised and continue to be increased everytime bullion goes below $260. Central banks view sub-$250 gold as a sign of deflationary risk, and they do not intend to let it happen. This change in official sentiment is likely to prevail until Gold is restored to a price of $300 or more. But don't expect a force majure. A violent rally from here would not suit central bank purposes any more than a contiued decline would.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 13:58:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 52111)
Netking...silver
The last briefing I had on the subject of silver and China was that there was a net OUTFLOW of silver from that country. What does this do to your position?
Black Blade
(04/18/01; 13:43:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 52110)
Surprise Rate Cut???
Has anyone picked up on this? It would appear that this so-called surprise rate cut wasn't so much of a surprise after all. The Fed met via teleconference yesterday and the US Market futures and Foreign Market indices were much higher on no real news. Quite suspicious isn't it. Apparently the "cat was out of the bag" long before the "surprise" rate cut. Many investment houses must have been privy to this information prior to the official announcement. This type of Insider Trading comes to those who are privileged friends to these powerful market movers. As they say, "it's not who you know, it's who you blow." Proof once again that the Free Market isn't so free and very likely manipulated.
- Black Blade
JMB
(04/18/01; 13:24:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 52109)
SHIFTY
Thank you SHIFTY, that was great!
Yours, JBM (sorry)
SHIFTY
(04/18/01; 13:19:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 52108)
Gandalf the White
I believe you are correct. I guess Air Force sounds more intimidating than Air Corp.
But what do I know.
:-)
$hifty
Old Yeller
(04/18/01; 13:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 52107)
Where's ORO?
Whew,what a crazy day.
ORO,any thoughts on the next directions and gyrations?
Netking
(04/18/01; 13:06:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 52106)
Trail Guide
Sir Trail Guide you wrote(52084); "Note: When the American economy goes into the tank, silver will be down there with it. We have but to watch, and learn as as the Hunts did, while this fact is proven once again. Silver, an industrial metal that never was gold. Only promoted to be".
I reply Sir; The two biggest users of Silver being PRC & India both have demand/use significantly above the USA. (It's easy to think the World stops at your USA borders,yes?)These two economies are both significantly developing economies, in the case of PRC their biggest single useage is photography which is increasing, I suggest Sir that the PRC will more than make up for My Kodak!
In fact as we speak Trail Guide...milliions of Chinese on their borders with cameras in hand wanting to catch a shot of a EP3 flying past.
Gandalf the White
(04/18/01; 12:48:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 52105)
More on the Thailand "golden dreams" -- My last posting today, I promise
Bangkok Post
Govt halts excavation of cave - Satellite survey will decide further action
by Bangkok Post Reporters
The government has ordered a halt to the excavation at Lijia cave for the fabled World War II Japanese treasure, pending a satellite survey of the site. The order came as Senator Chaowarin Latthasaksiri admitted yesterday he had never gone deep inside the cave and could not confirm the existence of his frequently claimed treasure: $55 billion worth of US government bonds and $25 billion worth of gold.
Kuthep Saikrachang, the deputy government spokesman, said the government has ordered a complete halt to the excavation pending a satellite survey of the site, for fear the digging might damage the environment and historical value of the site. "The outcome of the survey is expected in a week. The government will decide then what it wants to do next," he said.
The latest development has dealt a serious blow to Mr Chaowarin's decade-long hunt for the fabled treasure. The Ratchaburi senator has always insisted on the existence of the treasure. A few days ago he announced that he had sought an audience with His Majesty the King to report about his finds. But Mr Chaowarin conceded publicly yesterday he had never gone deep inside the cave and did not know for certain whether there was a cache of hidden treasure there. Still, Mr Chaowarin came up with a story to justify his call for further digging at the site. He told a press conference yesterday that a member of his hunt team had crawled into a hole in the cave and came back with some papers, which he did not know exactly what they were.
Mr Chaowarin was apparently referring to the US bonds. Pictures of the bonds which were published in local newspapers have prompted several people to observe that they look very similar to counterfeit US bonds seized in the Philippines last year. As more questions were raised about the existence and authenticity of the bonds, Mr Chaowarin said yesterday he had postponed his plan for an audience with the King because he needed to have the papers verified by experts first. Mr Chaowarin said he had never mentioned that the bonds were authentic. It was the media which assumed so. "I am just a law graduate and a master's degree holder from Nida [National Institute of Development Administration]. I am pursuing a doctoral degree at Ramkhamhaeng University. The papers are in English and I had to ask monetary and financial experts to look at them. They told me the country would be saved from the crisis if the documents were genuine," Mr Chaowarin said.
The senator last week showed photos of the bonds to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and won his approval to begin excavation to clear the way into the interior of Lijia cave for a full-scale search for the treasure. Mr Thaksin's unexpected visit to the site sparked a media frenzy and lent weight to the claim by Mr Chaowarin, who has been frequently mocked over his quest for the supposed treasure.
In an apparent move to distance himself from the issue, Mr Thaksin avoided meeting Mr Chaowarin, who called on him at Government House twice yesterday morning. Sources said Mr Chaowarin was told the prime minister was tied up in a cabinet meeting and could not see the senator.
Mr Chaowarin, who looked upset, then left for parliament but returned later to Government House to hold a press conference after finding there were no reporters at parliament. The sources said Mr Thaksin and his cabinet decided after a 20-minute talk about the treasure hunt that the government would pay it less attention. "The government risks losing its credibility for its involvement if the digging drags on and no treasure is found," one cabinet member was quoted as saying. "I guess you ministers have your batteries fully charged over the long Songkran holiday. I happened to have wrongly plugged mine during the weekend," Mr Thaksin said, apparently referring to his meeting at Lijia cave with Mr Chaowarin. His quip drew a burst of laughter from his cabinet.
+++++++++
<;-) Standard Thailand "Method of Operations" !!
Gandalf the White
(04/18/01; 12:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 52104)
More Memories !
Sir Shifty --
If I remember correctly the OLD lines ended with:
the "Army Air Corp". This was the name before they created the Air Force, -- it also rhymed better.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(04/18/01; 12:29:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 52103)
MEMORIES --Just Change the Date and See this Happening Again.
Leigh (09/21/99; 18:32:38MDT - Msg ID:14075)
O Mighty Oaken Table of Yore
We assemble together this evening, attired in festive garb and chattering excitedly as the celebration begins. It is the first anniversary of our beloved Table Round. Torches cast a hazy golden glow throughout the Hall, and we see that much care has been put forth to make our meeting place lovely and inviting. As we look around, we see faces unfamiliar to us, and yet...curiously, we feel a deep sense of closeness to one another. Excitement builds as we introduce ourselves, and hugs are exchanged. We laugh happily as we hear cries of: "You're just the way I imagined! How delightful it is to meet you at last!"
Our host motions us to the Table, and we take our places. We can see our group as a whole now. There are old friends and new ones, very distinguished guests and happy-go-lucky souls. It is a group that anywhere else might seem incongruous, but we hold each member dear. Our talk becomes subdued as we keep an open ear for the voice of our host. At last he rises and says, "Forum members, I have a most wonderful surprise for you this evening! May I introduce to you, Sir FOA!" We stare at the door in open-mouthed expectation, and a smiling gentleman walks in. He grasps the outstretched hands of those whom he passes, and walks to the head of the table. "Thank you, Mr. Kosares," he says. "I am honored to be here tonight. It has been a most interesting year, and I have enjoyed sharing it with all of you. But I did not come alone this evening. I have brought with me a man who has a strong love for mankind, one who holds much wisdom and a deep sense of honor. I am proud to be called the Friend of ANOTHER!" We Forum members jump to our feet as Sir ANOTHER enters the room. We cannot seem to stop applauding as we gaze upon the kindly face of the one whose thoughts have inspired and guided us for so long.
Our celebration lasts for many hours, yet each moment is touched with a sense of magic. We who entered the Hall as strangers have become the very dearest of friends. Throughout the past year, we have shared each other's concerns, suffered together, helped one another in our quest for knowledge. Daily we learn more about each other. We admire strengths and have compassion on weakness. Tonight we have much to celebrate, and it is to our USAGOLD Forum fellows that we instinctively turn. The lure of the mighty Table Round is overwhelming. It keeps us up late at night, and it beckons us in our sleep. We happily obey its call, knowing that our Forum friends are always glad to hear from us. May there be many, many more years of camaraderie for us all at the Oaken Table of Yore!
=======
Now that FOA and ANOTHER have again joined us, this old Posting by Lady Leigh, "rings true again".
<;-)
SHIFTY
(04/18/01; 12:26:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 52102)
JMB
JMB You were correct the Pentagon was not busy!
Ha Ha
PS: Its shifty with an H . I have a friend swifty (he is allways in a hurry. He is the one that started calling me shifty.
by Robert Crawford
Off we go into the wild blue yonder,
Climbing high into the sun;
Here they come zooming to meet our thunder,
At 'em boys, Give 'er the gun! (Give 'er the gun now!)
Down we dive, spouting our flame from under,
Off with one helluva roar!
We live in fame or go down in flame. Hey!
Nothing'll stop the U.S. Air Force!
Minds of men fashioned a crate of thunder,
Sent it high into the blue;
Hands of men blasted the world asunder;
How they lived God only knew! (God only knew then!)
Souls of men dreaming of skies to conquer
Gave us wings, ever to soar!
With scouts before And bombers galore. Hey!
Nothing'll stop the U.S. Air Force!
JMB
(04/18/01; 11:53:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 52101)
SWIFTY
Give the Pentagon a ring....they're not doing much at the moment. Hey Swifty, can you imagine what this stock market will do if the China talks break down? Hgher underware prices are bad for business, no?
SHIFTY
(04/18/01; 11:24:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 52100)
JMB
Air Force theme song
I cant find the lyrics for that tune.
Sorry
$hifty
Gandalf the White
(04/18/01; 10:51:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 52099)
beesting (04/18/01; 09:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 52097)
They just awoke and are smiling! However, as Randy of the Tower says -- "See the US$ shrinking!"
<;-)
Mr Gresham
(04/18/01; 10:00:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 52098)
JMB, Steve H
http://washington.bcentral.com/washington/stories/2001/04/16/story1.html
Good catch! Rare find, reporter who did his homework...
beesting
(04/18/01; 09:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 52097)
Gold Showing Positive Reaction to Lowered rates!
http://www.quoteline.com/irtmecoe.asp
Spot just did a fast $3.00 turnaround when the rate cut was announced. From $259.55 to $262.15 and rising.
Gandy, should we wake up the Hobbits or wait a little longer?.....beesting.
JMB
(04/18/01; 09:51:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 52096)
SWIFTY
It might be a good time for a song. How about the Air Force theme song...it starts like this..."Off we go, into the wild blue yonder, da da da dada da etc"
Orville Goldenbacher
(04/18/01; 09:42:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 52095)
Captain Edward John Smith-Titanic
Quote: "I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that . . ." (On the maiden voyage of the Adriatic in New York, 1907)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/18/01; 09:27:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 52094)
Another step toward dollar devaluation... an intrameeting 50 basis point rate cut by the FOMC
PRESS RELEASE -- April 18, 2001
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 4 percent.
The FOMC has reviewed prospects for the economy in light of the information that has become available since its March meeting. A significant reduction in excess inventories seems well advanced. Consumption and housing expenditures have held up reasonably well, though activity in these areas has flattened recently. Although measured productivity probably weakened in the first quarter, the impressive underlying rate of increase that developed in recent years appears to be largely intact.
Nonetheless, capital investment has continued to soften and the persistent erosion in current and expected profitability, in combination with rising uncertainty about the business outlook, seems poised to dampen capital spending going forward. This potential restraint, together with the possible effects of earlier reductions in equity wealth on consumption and the risk of slower growth abroad, threatens to keep the pace of economic activity unacceptably weak. As a consequence, the Committee agreed that an adjustment in the stance of policy is warranted during this extended intermeeting period.
The Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco.
---END---
From this you should expect international holders of dollar-denonimated bonds to get nervous over the value of the dollars received if held to maturity, prompting thoughts of early liquidation. A bond selloff would raise longterm interest rates (lest the Fed steps in to buy all bonds offered), while the dollars received would then chase other currencies and tangible goods (gold) putting the value of the dollars under downward pressure against all such things while their prices and exchange rates rise. Stock prices can also be expected to rise by degree, but are ultimately limited by the underlying fundamentals and an economy suffering under the coming severe inflation. (For more insight on this, please see canamami's lucid commentary in his prize-winning Fifth Horseman post lodged in the Hall of Fame.)
And the trickle became a flood....
got gold?
JMB
(04/18/01; 09:23:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 52093)
BAD QUOTES?
I'm showing June Gold selling .40 cents over August.
I don't remember ever seen that before.
justamereBear
(04/18/01; 09:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 52092)
Working Kirk
I have seen a number of posts, and heard a good deal of advice about owning property. Yours is the first to discuss what is the reason for me not owning property at this time,, The "have not" government PTB are going to use every method possible to get what I have, and one EASY tool is taxes. At such time as it becomes necessary for me to own property, my bargaining hand will be a lot stronger, in fact pretty dictatorial, if I control the real money, gold. Once it gets to be property, I am stuck with a very immovable and prominent asset. One that can be seized easily. Gold buried in an old tin can that no-one knows about is much better IMHO.
I have no problem with the idea that land is going to be absolutely necessary. Besides, IMHO land prices will become cheaper by almost any yardstick.
j'Bear
JMB
(04/18/01; 09:07:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 52091)
SteveH re your #52075
I was curious to see if anyone would pick up on that. Amazing isn't it?
Until this real estate bubble runs its course, we'll keep buying gold at a very good price and exercise a little more patience.
Randy: If you get a few moments you should read the article that SteveH recommends. I think there's an error in the article. Check out the parenthetical statement early on.
Canuck
(04/18/01; 08:24:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 52090)
@ Belgium
Thanks for your notes.
In quick response (hope to digest tonight) Reg Howe has many comments on the purported 'cheating' on the W.A.
I read this mornings 'Globe and Mail' and have come upon a revelation; it has cleared 2 years of confusion. I hope to post this within a week.
Canuck.
P.S.: I have been in the 'gold world' for about 3 years, a
'newbie'. I am beginning to understand your frustrations; your posts shed light on numerous items.
Belgian
(04/18/01; 06:51:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 52089)
@ Canuck
Sorry and allow me my 2 cents on CBs and Goldreserves, before Randy corrects.
If Central Banks should have the intention to balance the perceptions on fiat...they should already have communicate more publicly about their goldreserves and the fractionnal character of it.
I agree that the WA was a signal on the Euro connection with Gold. But how strong was this signal ? How can we verify what we believe they are trying to tell us ?
How much Euros against tonnes of Gold ?
In the case for the dollar. The same reasoning, with that important difference : these same 8.123 tonnes against how much more trillions of dollars ?
IMO, no government dares to attrackt any attention on a possible relationship between fiat and gold reserves.
That would awake some very nasty suspicions with dramatic reactions .
As long as CBs don't prove they are buying more gold on the balance, we have weak arguments to underpin our perceptions of a golden euro. We hope and thrive on the perception and the WA signal.
There is no return to a gold-standard. If the gold in the CBs vaults is to be used one day...for whatever reason...it will have to be on an unbelievable high price to have any significance against the monstrous volume on fiat.
For this reason we are on our own with gold ! We have the opportunity to accumulate it freely and at a ridiculous price to our conviction. We have all the time in the world to prepare us for what we believe will happen. We are protecting ourselves agains collective idiocy. We are projecting our common sense onto the collectivity and the ones they voted for. That is a mistake as old as wise men exists.
12.000 euro tonnes and 8.000 us tonnes, represent nothing, absolutely nothing !!!!! A grain of sand against an ocean of paper. But this sandgrain, might turn into a massive dike. Or all private gold (90.000 tonnes) might become the new golden calf. Perhaps we need to encourage all nations with underground gold to deplete their wealth as fast as possible. And note, I'm not trying to be cynical.
Individual wisdom is much more reliable than collective idiocy and mass hystery.
Sir Canuck, I only had the intention to put your Randy question in some other perspective. Please do comment if I've gone bezerk.
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)
(04/18/01; 06:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 52088)
Reply
Mr Gresham (04/17/01; 10:33:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 52041)
ANOTHER: WA, BIS
Was the Washington Agreement the most significant event in gold since you were last posting in 1998? Do you have any reflections on those events?
Mr. Gresham,
One must weigh the mind of this Randy. It be heavy, yes? Do read the thoughts of the BIS for these same are printed review as #52046. Hold a mirror to these events for reflection. Such descriptions I discuss come next day.
Thank You
Another
Cavan Man
(04/18/01; 06:22:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 52087)
Hello Trail Guide
USAGOLD 51992 (auspec)
First; I do agree with you about silver vs gold. Second; I have a few simple questions if I may:
1. The first ANOTHER post; did you process that message and do you generally process your friend's THOUGHTS or is it actually him at the keyboard? In the first post I thought the attempt to duplicate the accent in virtual text was a bit contrived but the second post answering Mr. Gresham's inquiries sound much more original.
2. These THOUGHTS etc. proclaim what amounts to complete victory over the US Dollar. I have a very hard time accepting this absolute that you propose. The dollar foe is very resourceful and, they read your THOUGHTS here also. Would you comment please?
3. What makes you think you can trust the Europeans any better than you can the USA?
4. Did you enjoy the Masters?
TIA....CM
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)
(04/18/01; 06:19:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 52086)
Reply
USAGOLD (04/16/01; 19:15:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51997)
----- I would also like to take this opportunity to welcome Another back to this Table. The circle is now joined in continuity again -- all around. Already I have added to my own file of vintage "Another (Thoughts!)" with this shrewd observation:
"This dream of much dollar currency for gold is the illusion in the "Western Mind". Your men of "deep pockets" do probe for shortages, however, their wish for low supply is not to be found. Their pockets are full with "credit gold" and
sad are they at currency price this brings. It is the fools game to corner paper gold printing press, no? Sir, I stand with no fools!"
The smile of recognition returns to my face as this point is made in these few, short sentences better than I have seen it made in entire articles on the subject. Welcome back, my friend. --------
Mr. Kosares,
Thank you for your welcome and acknowledgment. I add that within this circle many feet have walked and the prints of the Kosares show most lasting impression. I see the stature of this man as American, however no Western mind is found within him. One day all will rush and follow your path before strong tide washes the deepest heal mark from sand.
It be true, my friend, in history no man does corner printing press. Many have take this path before. Even declare themselves "leaders" of "financial knowledge" and "sophistication", do they. The Gresham does make wonder about such things and asks for reason noone does claim gold from printer?
Such demand be as 100 men with contract asking Spanish farmer for 100 basket of olives where clear examination in field display only 10 basket. Such good reasoning have these men, demand delivery and illusion of wealth to others be none! None ask full collection for fear of illusion to
become reality, no? Perhaps, take what offered and wait next year. Better, sell claims for olives to Western investors with little eyes and clean shoes? Perhaps financial knowledge and sophistication of these paper sellers is more considerable than average fool. In the days that come,
"better one olive in house than six blooms on tree"!
We watch this new gold market together, yes?
Thank You
Another
Belgian
(04/18/01; 05:56:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 52085)
....* US * and * THEM *
- *US* : All holders of the 90.000 tonnes of aboveground physical Gold. Rich, poor, modest goldinvestors and jewelry affectionados.
- *THEM* : 1/ All Official holders of 30.000 tonnes of aboveground Gold. Central Banks / BIS / IMF etc..etc..
2/ All Goldproducers with X-000 tonnes of underground reserves. Impossible to estimate the "X", because price-related. Zero tonne at zero $/ounce and theoretically unlimited at X$/ounce.
The most insignificant physical Goldholder is the Official -Public (collectivity) holder. What do we know about them ?
For the past 30 years, some have been selling, citizen's Gold. We can't impossibly say that the total world's official Gold is declining or increasing today. Top Secret for China / M.E. / Russia and other identities. Do we have to fear this Goldholder or not ? Official Goldholders are the same people who are creating the paper-cosmos. Do they have another agenda with the Value-Standard ? Will they use physical gold as plunder of the last resort, in order to keep the cosmos illusion, alive ? As long as fiat-depreciation remains perfectly hidden...nobody is going to ask them. As long as "constant depreciation" is sold as "inflation" to the analysts/economists and public...everything is OK in Lalalala-land.
- The most interesting "THEM" are the Goldproducers. They are private (?) holders of unknown underground Gold. Probably more tonnes than already have been digged to the surface up until now. For this reason, I was expecting them to be the forerunners of Gold-Activism. But they aren't !
Finally we conclude that we (*US*) are squeezed between the irrationnal behaviour of the two other main Goldholders.
*THEY* are ridiculising private goldholders, with a ridiculously Undervalued price for Gold. Ergo, they blame private goldholders and investors for not buying enough gold and therefore be the main reason that POG is extremely low ! Cheers.
So in a nutshell, 140.000 tonnes of gold aboveground and even more underground, has succeeded, to ridiculise itself in a grotesque way ! At this forum and a fistfull of other stubborn Activists, are shouting, as insignificant idiots,
about the Value of 140.000 (plus) tonnes of Gold.
"THEY" (them) are hautainely and absolutely refusing to lend their honorable ear. This ARROGANCE is totally misplaced and bears not a nanogram of justification.
It is exactly the most fundamental essence of Physical Gold
Holders, to make public, the General DEPRECIATION of global fiat ! What happens if tomorrow a majority of jewelry and goldinvestors, abandon the fundamental "store of wealth" notion ? At what fiat-paper-price do these Gold Looters want to install that perception on a broader scale ?
But all these honorable men are just sitting there, waiting for the dollar to come to the rescue of 140.000-plus tonnes of real wealth. And once the dollar starts to show its intrinsic weakness, the producers will flood the market with new physical, in order to reap some long awaited profits from their past wrong strategy of reserve accumulation at any cost. Official goldholders will have sold (distributed) citizens Gold in the past 30 years at give away valuations. They constantly OVER-valuated their own printed paper with an UNDER-valuated and therefore smaller amount of Physical gold. Ignorants !!
Gold and goldinvestors are ridiculised against the Paper-Calf, adored by irresponsable bureaucrats and shortsighted goldproducers and the fortunated nations, where the underground-wealth is located. The underground wealth is plundered with the tool of paper-currencies that depreciates against non goldholders. Gold isn't "PRECIOUS" for them anymore. Gold has become a paper mine to them.
Without ounces, there is no business...goldproducers fragmentation...consolidation...monetary insignificance...pricing power...offer/demand...marketing...abandonment of gold as a personal investment vehical...digital gold...high/low cost mining...Central banks stand ready to...pricing power...etc...etc... All on their knees for the holly paper calf...sorry... mad cow ! What a blahblah circus, masking the weakness and inability to value, Value.
None of the above 3 Gold groups is talking to each other. Gold is SILENCED ! The public and individuals are on their own. We are lucky, still able, to think and act, freely on Gold. There is some paradoxal hope in this atmosphere.
Silence before a monetary storm. A financial debacle.
The past idiotic SM prices (not valuations) haven't teached anything to official gold holders and producers.
It was the perfect evidence as to what degree ALL paper has depreciated. Mountains of paper for death mouses. Nothing for a 5000 year old VALUABLE, that represents an insignificant, minuscule volume, against an artificially created cosmos of illusions.
Isn't it time for drastic change ! For ALL goldholders !
We must signal the Value of the gold we are holding against all other depreciations. Simply by holding that physical Gold in our fists. Goldmine shareholders pressing for holding on the underground reserves, instead of shortsighted profits and dividends. Citizens with a vote for public gold politicians.Official goldholders promoting free valuation of gold with its benign signal and beakon functions. Give Gold the ability to prevent a fiat collapse. Give Gold the ability to foster Worldly Balance. Let the citizens decide on valuation. Allow economics to regulate and adjust itself. Intervention got out of hand and have the courage to restore natural balance.
But politicians are the last ones who need Gold ! They just keep printing and grab whatever amount of fiat they can get, for personal wellbeing. Naieve and childish, isn't it !
I gave up every effort to communicate with goldproducers or official goldholders and politicians. As a modest individual, I've send them some "THANK YOU" letters. THANK YOU for providing so much GOLD for such a ridiculous amount of worthless paper. THANK YOU for putting that undervalued gold at our disposal for such a long period of time, whilst we could continue to accumulate our modest wealth. THANK YOU for mining your precious high grade ore at the lowest cost and the highest hedging speed.
THANK YOU for auctionning these golden lots at regular intervals, instead of selling it in one go to a few tycoons.
THANK YOU ALL here on USAGOLD for your precious and valuable guidance !
Trail Guide
(4/18/01; 05:05:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 52084)
-- Silver slips as film sales fade faster than expected --
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
USAGOLD LIVE NEWS
03:27 GMT-04:00 Wednesday, April 18, 2001
----Silver prices fell for the first time in a week after Eastman Kodak Co., the biggest user of the metal, said photographic film sales are falling faster than expected.
Sales from the product line that includes Kodak's main film business fell 7 per cent in the first quarter, and the company said it saw no end to the decline. Silver this year has been trading at or close to its lowest price since 1997, mostly because of weakening demand from jewellers and silverware makers.
"This news from Kodak is going to hurt silver demand," said Jim Pogoda, a trader at Mitsubishi International Corp. in New York. Given the sales outlook, the company "has already bought all the silver it needs for this year," he said.-----
------------
Note: When the American economy goes into the tank, silver will be down there with it. We have but to watch, and learn as as the Hunts did, while this fact is proven once again. Silver, an industrial metal that never was gold. Only promoted to be.
Black Blade
(4/18/01; 04:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 52083)
Russia Could Boost PGM Output (Not Anytime Soon)
http://www.platts.com/stories/pr1.html
Snippit:
Russia, the world's leading source of palladium and second largest producer of platinum, could boost its PGM output by more than 40% in the next few years, according to a recent US Geological Survey (USGS) study. The study considered the PGM resources and development plans of Norilsk Nickel Mining in Siberia. Norilsk produces almost all of Russia's PGMs.
Black Blade: The operative words are "next few years." It should be noted that Norilsk Nickel has already announced that mine production of nickel will be reduced, so this is just more USGS wishful thinking. Too bad that the US Bureau of Mines was closed up and combined with the USGS. Like trying to combine realists with idealists.
Canuck
(4/18/01; 04:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 52082)
@ Randy
I have been 'back-reading' some of your Euro postings and have a couple questions. Please excuse the simplicity of my queries; I'm trying to get a feel for the potential transfer of wealth.
It is my understanding that the 11 (is it 12 now?) member European group (EU) managed by the central bank (ECB) is backing the EURO with reserves of which 15% is gold. So far, so good? There are some 12,000 tonnes of gold held by the ECB (in reserve) therefore one could accurately and easily calculate total reserve, yes? I assume USD make up a substantial portion of the reserve as well? The ECB reports reserves quarterly and publishizes this number. If I recall correctly the gold is 'marked to market' (ie: value of gold held X spot?). Does the ECB announce (again quarterly?) the value of gold (again at 15%?), USD, swissies, Yen, etc., etc.; that is to ask do they announce quantities of all reserves? I recall in your posts amounts of gold but I do not recall amounts of 'paper'.
So if the CB holds 15% of reserves in gold and the US dollar rises(which it has) and gold falls(which it has) the ECB must be buying gold to maintain the 15%, yes?
What percentage of reserve to total money 'out there' does the ECB maintain? I equate 'reserve' to collateral. If I personally have equity of $50,000 a bank would be inclined to lend me $50,000 because I have 'reserve'. Is this a fair analogy? Looker at the larger picture of a central bank, if the ECB holds $10 billion in reserve does it have $1 trillion in money 'float', $100 trillion , a $zillion? I suppose the 'fractionalization' theories come into play here; does the 5% or 10% 'rule' apply? If a trillion dollars is out 'in money supply' does this warrant $50 billion of reserve?
In contrast what does the Federal Reserve hold and to what percentage? Would I be correct in saying that the Fed is less forward in disclosing offical numbers? Starting at square one, they won't even count the gold!! Being that Fed is the proprietor of the USD, (ie: key currency, reserve currency of choice) I am inclined to believe that the US reserve would be proportionately smaller than other countries. Would that assumption be correct? If, for example, the ECB holds 5% as reserve and the FED holds
0.5% does this bode well in terms of internationally confidence? Sounds like a small time bank in Little Rock, Arkansas with $1,000 in the vault and millions loaned out,
'fractionalized' to the Nth degree?
Further, if the gold has not been 'counted' in upteen years how does the FED come to accuate numbers for their 'reserve' and thus the multiple of fractionlization/collateralization?
Sorry for the ramble, I guess I'm trying to compare the 2 central banks; ie: the ECB who states they are holding 5% of 'cash' in reserve of which 15% is gold and every quarter they state the facts whereas the FED is trying to remember where they hid the gold and hasn't told anyone for some 25 years. (last audit 1975?)
Thanks for your time.
Gad Zeus, must run; almost 7:00am, the boss has been ultra-ugly lately. Sorry for the non-proofed version.
Black Blade
(4/18/01; 04:42:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 52081)
Platinum liquidity squeeze ups price
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGPlat.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D65385256A3100585FD9?OpenDocument
Snippit:
Speculators got their fingers burnt over Easter as a liquidity squeeze in the platinum market forced short positions of over 71 000 ounces of the metal under water. A rise in the platinum price forced speculators to cover positions yesterday (16 April), a move that further tightened the market. A rise in one-month lease rates to as high as 15 percent forced the carpetbaggers to buy platinum – rather than roll over their loans – to repay what they owed.
Black Blade: PGMs are moving higher even after yesterday's $100.00 gain in Palladium. Russian can't deliver what they don't have. PGM supplies are extremely tight as evidenced by sharp price moves on minor contract purchases and the nonexistent COMEX inventories. Just a preview of what can happen with gold and silver.
Seeker of the Grail
(4/18/01; 04:14:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 52080)
Contest Winners
Dear Sirs,
CONGRATULATIONS!!!to all New Fifth Horseman winners wonderfully written excellent posts. Someday I wish......
Van Rip you certainly shoot a good arrow in a cross wind.
You certainly have your cross hairs (cross curves) working for you.
Thanks USA Gold for the contest!!! Truley generous.
TO the winners, curtiously from Usa Gold, you have a few more for your chalice.
May your chalice overflow,
SOTG
Netking
(04/18/01; 02:32:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 52079)
Silver to $50-$100 over several years. . .
Parsifal, "Bless You!" for that link. More highlights....
----------------------------------------------------------
Cook: If you can't say when(Silver will 'move'), can you say how?
Butler: How is the silver price going to move once it starts moving? That's one I think I have the answer to. Big and fast. The when part won't matter, if you have already established your position. When will only matter if you're not in when the move commences. That's what the price history and current fundamentals of silver suggest.
Cook: Can you explain that a bit more? I mean, what would get it started and how fast would it move?
Butler: Silver is the most manipulated market in the world. The price will explode once the manipulation ends. Leasing has to end. When leasing ends, the silver price will be set in a completely different range, in a hurry.
Cook: Care to put a number on that?
Butler: I think it's possible that we could double or triple. Maybe in weeks. If it goes up slower and longer than I expect, no harm done. But we will get to the real free market clearing price to balance current production and consumption. That you can count on.
Cook: Haven't you said as high as $50 to $100 an ounce?
Butler: Yes, and I stand by that. But that's not immediate. That will take several years.
Cook: The big trading funds have successfully depressed the price with their short sales. This is big money at work speculating against silver. What can possibly break the hold they have on silver?
Butler: The short answer is the law of supply and demand. These short sales that these funds have made are pure paper sales. There is no real silver backing these short sales. While the short sales do depress the price temporarily, the law of supply and demand adjusts to the new lower price, by increasing demand and reducing supply, over what would have otherwise occurred. The cure for low prices is always low prices. Besides, these paper short sales are incomplete transactions. They must be bought back at some point. I say that point should be explosive.
Netking
(04/18/01; 02:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 52078)
That Interview. . .
James R. Cook to Ted Butler (during interview)...."Frankly, it embarrasses me whenever you call leasing fraudulent and manipulative. It's a very serious charge. Couldn't we cool the rhetoric on this issue?"
Detection 101: One of those men is NOT a rocket scientist!
Topaz
(04/18/01; 01:45:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 52077)
Parsifal
One feeble minded opinion:-
Take 1:- CB lends to BB (metal) - sold on market -$ lent to Miner on collateral of forward supply. HAS negative implications for POG.
Take 2:- CB lends to BB (paper). BB fractionally parlays amount x 900% (or whatever) - sells this to market as paper Au. HAS negative implications for POG.
Pretty young things look spitefully upon their suitors as their Golden adornments pale in comparison to their elder sister's of Spring's past,.... and higher Gold prices.
Has VERY negative implications for CB and BB.
Hell hath no fury.....
Parsifal
(04/18/01; 01:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52076)
Ted Butler on COMEX laws/rules
http://www.gloomdoom.com/04-17-01.html
***
Cook: Another thing you've said is that the big short sales on the COMEX are not in accord with the original intent of commodity law and should be stopped. What do you mean by that?
Butler: The Commodity Exchange Act (CEAct) clearly dictates that speculators should not manipulate or influence prices due to large positions. It is the law's number one concern. For that reason, the CEAct dictates that speculators hold positions, basically, that are smaller than what the average real miners and consumers produce and consume. The COMEX clearly violates this law by allowing speculators to hold much bigger positions than the biggest producers mine in a year. The most recent Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows four or less traders net short 37% of total futures positions, or 130 million ounces. That means that 1, or 2, or 3, or 4 traders are permitted to be short an amount of silver which is greater than all verifiable silver in existence. The COMEX is clearly violating the law, and their lap-dog, the CFTC, doesn't say squat. It's outrageous.
***
I guess the rules must have been applied in the Hunt brothers incident.
SteveH
(04/18/01; 01:28:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 52075)
Someone posted this link earlier
http://washington.bcentral.com/washington/stories/2001/04/16/story1.html
Read this. Especially the part about credit creation.
working-kirk
(04/18/01; 01:21:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 52074)
Buying your favorite real estate after hyperinflation
Buying a hotel with a one ounce coin has already been done.
I remember reading about the german hyperinflation a bellboy
was tipped by a customer a one ounce gold coin. Natually he
saved it and afterward the hyperinflation, he was able to buy the hotel where he worked for that same gold coin.
Personally, I don't think getting any sort of mortage and hoping to pay for it with the gold you got is a valid stadegy. There are several problems. First the powers that be are changing the bankruptcy laws. Even through you have a fixed mortage there are two things that could happen.
one is the laws could be rewritten so even through you have a fixed rate, you have to adjust it to the rate of inflation. Just like gold contracts were rendered void when Rooveselt grabbed the gold.
Second and more likely, the powers that be could asset the property at an outragious rate and then tax you with capital gains. You paid the property with a gold coin. How are you going to pay the property tax?
There are other problems. Some see the hyperinflation coming and so will borrow to the hilt and pay worthless dollars for homes. It will only take a few opportunities doing this before laws are passed making it illegal and
the people called "profiteers." And they will have to pay
huge penalties and fees.
Another problem. You may be counting on paying in cheaper dollars, but you still have to pay. What if you are unemployed? And you could face the situation I faced. You ended up unemployed but the price of gold, since it is being manuplated hasn't kept up and you have to sell your gold at a loss. At least I wasn't in debt. But you will have people with no heat or energy, (thanks to the energy crisis)
no money, threat to throw you into prison because of the overdue bills (thanks to the new bankruptcy laws) no job
(thanks to the ecomony and the massive layouts) no money and no way of getting any since you sold all you could but there are no buyers. What do you do? I hope not to find out. I will try to save some more in gold but the current situation may or may not give me a chance.
If I do manage to get some more gold, I will use any gold I have to wait out the destruction of paper money. I will then use that as capital to try to start a business
abudahhab (04/17/01; 22:12:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 52068)
beesting
Indeed, it is best to buy your favorite real estate with little down and as long term a fix-rate mortage as is possible. You might repay the mortgage with a 1/20 oz coin
when the hyperinflation ends.
Heck, with a 1oz coin, you might be able to buy your local Sheraton Hotel! It'd be kinda cool to own one with a big revolving restaurant on top!
Parsifal
(04/18/01; 01:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 52073)
Ted Butler interview, excerpt
http://www.gloomdoom.com/04-17-01.html
***
Cook: I know you don't focus much on other economic forces, but it seems to me that a drop in the dollar will bring gold to life and silver will be pulled along with it. I mean, the dollar and gold are opposites and silver has always risen with gold, at least in my lifetime. What's your opinion?
Butler: I can see gold and silver rising in tandem. They have a history of moving together. And they certainly share many things in common, as far as market structure. I mean such things as leasing, a big short position, and manipulation. But silver's market structure is much more extreme, in that we have been destroying silver inventories for 50 years, while we haven't destroyed any gold inventories, just reconfigured them. Gold is set to explode, but not like silver.
Cook: Didn't gold move silver along in the price runnups of twenty and twenty-five years ago?
Butler: Perhaps. I can see a move in gold as a catalyst in possibly starting the silver lift-off, but I have trouble with the dollar connection. I mean, what is the dollar going to weaken against? Current economic conditions are truly globally interconnected, and what paper currency is going to be a refuge from the dollar? What paper currency do you plan to run to? What foreign paper currency do you think regular folks will flock to? I have to tell you, I don't picture myself buying a foreign currency in any event. I'm not saying I won't, but if I do, it will be something I never did before. I'm not saying the dollar will not weaken. I'm saying I don't know after 30 years of looking at them, just what moves the currencies. I've heard 10,000 theories and explanations about the currencies. They all made sense, and then again, none made sense. I'm saying I don't see some strong connection. I look at the supply demand fundamentals of the real commodity. My analysis says silver is way under-valued, unsustainably under-valued. If you, or anyone else, says silver is undervalued for reasons other than the core fundamentals, I say great, that's a bonus.
Cook: Well, your currency analysis isn't overpowering me. If you create too much of anything it loses value. We're flooding the world with dollars and I believe it's poised to fall. It doesn't matter how good or bad other currencies are when you glut the world with dollars. It's our weakness rather than their strength. The dollar can lose value against all of them. If the economy continues to weaken, the dollar will likely follow.
Butler: You might be right and if you are, it certainly would impact gold and silver.
Cook: I'll go so far as to say it's likely to be the chief cause of a price explosion in precious metals.
Butler: I question that, but let's move on.
***
Parsifal
(04/18/01; 00:34:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 52072)
Musings, and an excerpt from an article
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/milhouse041901.html
This excerpt, from link above, implies that physical gold leased from the CBs is released into the physical market, sold, signed-sealed-delivered, gone. Is this correct? Incorrect in any significant way? I ask because I believe I have heard different statements on the question as to whether the leased gold is ever actually moved from storage. It seems that we have a growing consensus that it is.
Who generally owns the CB gold? Are the owners of CB gold generally the owners (private owners) of the CB? What about when the CB is supposed to be a public institution? Does the gold then belong to the citizens of the country? Perhaps some who control CB gold play fast and loose with that gold because it does not belong to them.
***
Gold - Physical versus Paper
We occasionally read that the price of gold is being held down using derivative contracts, but this has never made any sense to us and no one has ever been able to explain to us how a derivative contract can be used to address a physical shortage. At the end of the day the price of gold (or any commodity, for that matter) must be determined by the supply of, and the demand for, the physical stuff. This is why a significant increase in the investment demand for physical gold would certainly lead to a substantial rally in the gold price, regardless of what was happening in the 'gold-derivatives' market.
The only way the gold price can be prevented from rising is if the supply of physical gold is sufficient to meet the demand for physical gold, for two reasons. Firstly, the demand for physical gold from, for example, Indian jewelry manufacturers, cannot be satisfied using paper claims to gold. Secondly, those who are long the paper claims to gold (futures, call options) can always demand delivery of physical gold.
Physical gold supply has been given a substantial boost over the past few years by central bank gold lending. The CBs have been prepared to accept a rather large default risk on their gold loans in exchange for a small amount of interest income. This is just another example of government intervention distorting price and creating disastrous long-term consequences. No private investor would lend a large quantity of gold at a sub-1% interest rate knowing the significant risk of default. Governments and their CBs have, however, been prepared to take such a risk with their nations' gold reserves.
If commodity prices could be held in check using derivatives contracts then why have the CBs found it necessary to supply an additional 12000-15000 tonnes of physical gold to the market as part of their gold lending operations? Why take such a risk with official reserves if derivatives contracts could have done the trick? Why did the master-manipulators in the Clinton Administration feel the need to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an attempt to suppress the oil price last year? Surely a few discreet derivatives contracts would have been a better (safer) alternative from a political perspective. Furthermore, why wouldn't the large auto companies just employ a few smart derivatives experts in order to get the prices of palladium and platinum down to more 'reasonable' levels?
The draw-down in COMEX gold inventories and the chronically-high gold lease rates over the past few months suggest that the supply of physical gold will soon be insufficient to meet demand at the current low gold price. Perhaps the risk of default has become so obvious that the CBs are no longer prepared to throw good gold after bad. Or maybe they are just running out of gold.
***
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
