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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/18/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (08/18/00; 23:07:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 35175) Al Fulchino re: Vronsky - Greenspan article Judy Shelton makes some interesting comments, though I (as well as everyone here) agree with the benefits of a gold standard. She neglects to say that Alan Greenspan (Cheeta) has abandoned that ideal long ago. He is not very clear on what he believes in public testimony, always talking in obscure double meaning comments and yammering in circles while politicos (baboons) listen with eyes glazed over and nodding in agreement even though these budding rocket scientists haven't got a clue as to what he is saying. Another point, is Ms. Shelton's continual reference to our "democracy" (Mob Rule). Funny, I never thought that we in the USA were a democracy, but rather a representative republic that was to respect life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness while protecting the rights of the individual against the excesses of the majority. As for her comment: Greenspan: A closet Keynesian? I contend that he is. But that is my opinion. He certainly isn't very clear where he really stands. An honest man can tell the truth and in no uncertain terms. - Black BladeWill the Real Alan Greenspan Please Stand Up?By Andrew West "An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense, perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire, that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves."This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." - Alan Greenspan Quoted in Ayn Rand's "Capitalism The Unknown Ideal" (1966) If only we had someone who could speak this forcefully to the policy-makers in the world's financial institutions! Unfortunately, Greenspan has grown increasingly guarded since he wrote the essay excerpted above. These days he is hesitant to voice any firm opinion at all. During a previous testimony before congress, many expected Greenspan to explain why the economy is growing so strongly while inflation remains so low. Greenspan, who clearly must know better, was unable to provide a clear answer.Instead, he listed numerous factors (i.e., technological progress, productivity gains, reduced inflationary expectations, new investment in capacity, falling oil prices, falling import prices, and workers' willingness to work longer hours), which he claims have kept inflation temporarily low, but which he would not trust to stave off inflation forever.The reality is that the aforementioned "deflationary factors" are actually benefits OF falling inflation. So Greenspan essentially testified that the cause of today's low inflation is-- low inflation. Of course, this circular argument was phrased in such an eloquent manner as to obscure its complete illogic from 99% of the population. But if this framework is truly what Greenspan uses to guide his monetary policy, then the U.S. economy would be in horrendous shape today.The bond market took a fall after Greenspan's testimony. Journalists chalked it up to a rising belief that the Fed's bias is now towards reversing earlier interest rate eases. But I believe the problem is far more basic: the Fed currently has no clear framework for determining interest rate policy. As such, markets are left to cope with the uncertainty. Despite low inflation, and all indications from steady gold prices that this is set to continue, the Fed continues to treat economic growth and low unemployment as a threat, repeatedly suggesting that interest rates may be hiked in response.Once in a while, we get a glimmer of Greenspan's early days of ardent economic principle. For example, he stated that "at the end of the day, the level of inflation is a monetary phenomenon." He also said that "the price of gold-like a lot of commodity prices, and perhaps better than most, [has] been useful in my judgment in trying to get some sense what inflationary pressures have evolved in this country". Also, to the House Banking Committee Greenspan testified that "Monetary policy certainly has played a role in constraining the rise in the general level of prices and dampening inflation expectations over the 1980's and 1990's. But our current discretionary monetary policy has difficulty anchoring the price level over time in the same way that the gold standard did in the last century."Somewhere deep below his polished political exterior, there's an economist who knows the value of the gold standard. I suspect that Mr. Greenspan knows a lot more about good economics than he lets the public or his colleagues at the Federal Reserve and Treasury know. He jokes that the purpose of his vague statements is to allow the press to draw inconsistent and "diametrically opposite interpretations". My guess is that Greenspan enjoys his complex obscurity; since no one really understands how he's keeping inflation low, he can convince people in government that he alone has the brains to keep things steady. While this may be fun for him, it leaves no clear policy legacy for future Fed Chairmen.I'd like to see the return of Alan Greenspan, circa 1966. This Greenspan would take strong, and perhaps politically incorrect policy positions. Maybe he'll write a tell-all book after he retires, saying everything he's kept bottled up inside for the past 12 years. I would greatly enjoy Greenspan's rediscovered candor instead of suffering under the policy miscues of his replacement. Peter Asher (08/18/00; 23:05:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35174) Hobbits Gandalf and I are trying to make sense of this but the Hobbits are driving us nuts! They want us to go to sleep and start early so they can get in a long day of EATING!You guys are going to have to work this out without us till Sunday night. Then we will report on (Restaurant) free trade in the German/American Alps. Black Blade (08/18/00; 22:20:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35173) SHIFTY, all Just thought that you might like to know. I have worked in many parts of the world where there is extreme poverty. I have hired workers to do physically demanding labor for as little as 25 cents per day. In these places, 25 cents per day can feed and clothe ones family. I have seen where children work for pennies and contribute to the welfare of ones family, and the alternatives are not pretty. Some of the alternatives are child prostitution. So forgive me if I don't have a lot of sympathy for Kathy Lee Gifford and her kind when they complain that people in other countries don't get a comparable wage to US Americans, when that same wage can adequately provide for ones family. Perhaps US Americans should complain that their currency can't demand enough purchasing power in order to survive on 25 cents per day. I have had people come to me begging for work at 25 cents equivalent in US currency terms. In many cases the only reason the projects were viable, were because of the low costs in terms of US currency. At least for the time being we were able to provide a means to help some families with jobs and give them some dignity, whereas others sold their children into prostitution for the pleasure of western perverts. The Invisible Hand (08/18/00; 21:38:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 35172) Free trade and Private Property @ Al Fulchino msg#: 35167 Do individuals have a right to private property? Then they should have the liberty to trade with whomever they desire. Do we want America to be economically prosperous? Then Americans must have the freedom to sell and buy on any terms they find advantageous with whomever they desire anywhere in the world.from the cover of EBELING, R.M., & HORNBERGER, J.G., (eds.), "The Case for Free Trade and Open Immigration", Fairfax, Virginia, The Future of Freedom Foundation, 1995. Al Fulchino (08/18/00; 21:32:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35171) Repost from Vronsky at GE My comment: note the comment about stabilizing the general price of the dollar and by inference the dollar price of gold. Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold by Judy Shelton May 15, 1997 If patience is a virtue, Alan Greenspan is a saint. For more than three decades he has endeavored to guide the nation toward sound money -- first as a radical intellectual, then as an business economist and presidential adviser, and currently as chairman of Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. His critics on the left seem unable to comprehend the destructive consequences of irresponsible fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy. His critics on the right simply cannot appreciate the long-term perspective of Greenspan, a man who argued powerfully in the 1960s that "gold and economic freedom are inseparable" and who has steadfastly, albeit slowly, continued to pursue the realization of his intellectual ideals in the economic sphere. Arbitrary and capricious, he is not. The benefits of a balanced budget Instead of taking potshots at Greenspan reinforcing the claims of those who maliciously accuse him of waging a war against workers, advocates of sound money should be working with the Fed chairman toward the ultimate goal of price stability and restoration of a gold-based monetary system. It ain't gonna happen overnight; that is the fundamental lesson to be drawn from Greenspan's languorous pace. But with the achievement of a balanced budget agreement, we are making real progress. Balancing the budget is a moral imperative because it means the government cannot indulge in excessive spending and then abuse its sovereign monetary authority by financing chronic deficits with increasing levels of federal debt -- a practice that results in inflation. Supply-siders who minimize the importance of a balanced budget do not show proper respect for the teachings of economist Ludwig von Mises, who observed: Inflation is a policy. And a policy can be changed. Therefore, there is no reason to give in to inflation. If one regards inflation as an evil, then one has to stop inflating. One has to balance the budget of the government. Of course, public opinion must support this; the intellectuals must help the people to understand. Given the support of public opinion, it is certainly possible for the people's elected representatives to abandon the policy of inflation. Greenspan: A closet Keynesian? So the people's elected representatives have finally resolved to abandon the policy of inflation and phase out the budget deficit. Politicians on both sides are displeased with the compromise agreement forged earlier this month, but that is the nature of the process; it's messy but it's democracy. And as Washington journalist Bob Woodward chronicled in The Agenda, it's also the culmination of a personal campaign by Greenspan to convince government officials of all stripes that when they fund excess budget expenditures through the crafty means of government borrowing -- rather than the more straightforward approach of raising taxes -- they undermine not only the integrity of the nation's currency, but democracy itself. "Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth," Greenspan stated in The Objectivist some 30 years ago, noting: "Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." His reasoning remains valid on both counts. If, under democratic capitalism, people freely choose to redistribute national income for purposes of social equity, defense, education or other communal objectives -- so be it. The necessary tax revenues should be collected and allocated accordingly. What is unacceptable is for Washington officials to shirk from demonstrating the political courage necessary to defend their spending decisions and instead obtain funds by issuing government bonds that eventually swell the money supply with unwarranted credit. No less a liberal luminary than economist John Maynard Keynes, in his Tract on Monetary Reform, recognized the folly of deficit financing: It is common to speak as though, when a Government pays its way by inflation, the people of the country avoid taxation. We have seen that this is not so. What is raised by printing notes is just as much taken from the public as is a beer-duty or an income-tax. What a Government spends the public pay for. There is no such thing as an uncovered deficit. The golden years? Now that we are approaching that point where monetary policy can be isolated from fiscal policy, it is time to move purposefully toward the final objective of sound money based on gold convertibility. In a 1981 op-ed article entitled "Can the U.S. Return to a Gold Standard?", published in The Wall Street Journal, Greenspan wrote that the prerequisite for successfully restoring a gold standard was "for the U.S. to create a fiscal and monetary environment which in effect makes the dollar as good as gold, i.e., stabilizes the general price level and by inference the dollar price of gold bullion itself." Once such financial stability was achieved, he explained, returning to a gold standard would provide a vital safeguard against future budgetary malfeasance: ... (T)he discipline of the gold standard would surely reinforce anti-inflation policies, and make it far more difficult to resume financial profligacy. The redemption of dollars for gold in response to excess federal government-induced credit creation would be a strong political signal. Sound money advocates should take heart these days and realize that Greenspan is following a game plan laid out long ago. Now is not the time to break faith with the man who has done so much to usher in the financial and political conditions that will permit us to make the dollar as good as gold -- on a permanent basis. Judy Shelton, an economist, is the author of 'Money Meltdown: Restoring Order to the Global Currency System' (Free Press, 1994). Journeyman (08/18/00; 21:26:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35170) Little girls chained to sewing machines @SHIFTY msg#: 35132 Americans have usually regarded the immorality of childlabor as absolute. But as Owen Bowcott writes in the liberalMail & Guardian of Johannesburg, "Seen through thedesperation of the disadvantaged, the moral imperativemay...look very different. In Bangladesh, a country where 67percent of those under five are classified as malnourished,it is often extreme poverty that dirves parents to sendtheir own infants out to augment pitiful house-holdincomes." After U.S. senator Tom Harkin introduced a bill in 1993to ban the importation of Bangladeshi clothing produced withchild labor, factory owners in Bangladesh dismissed as manyas 50,000 underage workers. "Many of the sacked childrenwere left destitute," Bowcott reports. -WORLD PRESS REVIEW,March 1998, p.24I've seen a number of places in Mexico where kids from around 10and up are washing cars for a buck and selling chewing gum for 10cents, all members of what's called the "informal [illegal]economy". If it weren't for this, I imagine they'd starve.-Tourist[During the Industrial Revolution] The factory owners did nothave the power to compel anybody to take a factory job. Theycould only hire people who were ready to work for the wagesoffered to them. Low as these wage rates were, they werenonetheless much more than these paupers could earn in any otherfield open to them. It is a distortion of facts to say that thefactories carried off the housewives from the nurseries and thekitchen and the children from their play. These women had nothingto cook with and to feed their children. These children weredestitute and starving. Their only refuge was the factory. Itsaved them, in the strict sense of the term, from death bystarvation. -Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, (New Haven,Connecticut: Yale University Press, 1949), p. 615Regards,Journeyman Al Fulchino (08/18/00; 21:05:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35169) ET I had a chance to read several chapters from your link, earlier today. So far so good, but tell me how you read this passage:We liberals do not assert that God or Nature meant all men to be free, because we are not instructed in the designs of God and of Nature, and we avoid, on principle, drawing God and Nature into a dispute over mundane questions. What we maintain is only that a system based on freedom for all workers warrants the greatest productivity of human labor and is therefore in the interest of all the inhabitants of the earth. Cavan Man (08/18/00; 20:37:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35168) ET OK for now but, we have an old saying in this business; "Bad times are just around the corner". It was ingrained in me as a young pup. Thanks for the link! Al Fulchino (08/18/00; 20:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35167) CavanMan and ET Cavan Man, thanks for the compliment but rather than an entrepenuer, I view myself as a simple small business owner...I guess I look at "entrepenuer" as having the word "innovator" attached to it <smile>. As far as the boxes for the paintings, I havent found any yet, but I am sure I will sooner or later.ET, my man your post went like this:Hey Shifty - you wrote;"There is nothing wrong with protecting your own economy. Every country in the world should."There is everything wrong with this philosophy. It leads to economic nationalism and socialism. You will not find the liberty you crave by taking this path. The history of the world confirms this over and over. I hope you find the time to read the Austrians also. end postMe: The American economy over the last two hundred years has outclassed all others. Protecting it at all costs may be nationalistic, but what is wrong with having a good self esteem and keeping what is good? And importantly, it is our economy that is the engine that our national will and spirit uses to keep us strong and free. We can speak about no tariffs all we want. But until all evil economies <yes evil> share our love of liberty, I see no reason why we should let down our guard or our borders, etc to those who want to use what we have built as a big mall for themselves. Further, should we allow others into our economy if they do not allow us fairly into theirs? Lets say you wish to sell computers to China. And China says no we are furthering our own companies at this time, yet we allow them to sell here in the US. What would you say? You see, in this case economic nationalism is a must. When the majority of the countries act in good faith as far as trading freely, then we are can drop our guard as far as economic nationalism goes. Remember history also shows that their are bad people in the world and you must always be ready to protect yourself against them. You see all the wonderful platitudes in the world have never held. All the utopian societies have never held up....why should ecomomic utopias hold up. They won't, they won't, they won't <smile> ET (08/18/00; 20:07:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35166) C-Man http://www.mises.org/liberal.asp Hey C-Man, how is the box biz doin'? Our business remains in the tank and isn't showing any signs of picking up. As you may have read, Freightliner and Navistar have cut truck production significantly and are laying off thousands. Not a good situation in "the most prosperous economy of all time".The above link will take you to the online version of "Liberalism". Hope you enjoy! ET (08/18/00; 19:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35165) Credit http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm From the article;"In the debacle of the 1980's, it was possible to get relatively good information from the risks in the banking system. These were subject to analysis in reports from the Fed, OCC, FDIC and FSLIC, as well as in individual company reporting. Credit risk outsides these elements were readily examined in the finance companies and Wall St. individual reports. The aggregate outstandings of all the above now represent a small fraction of the total credit/risk environment. The far larger bulk of credit/risk is basically "off the sheet"! A combination of structured finance, securitization, credit enhancement and derivatives has created this mass of credit/risk which is amorphous, widespread and extremely difficult to track. The numbers are humongous! Identification of individual debtors is virtually impossible and "end-use" creditors are similarly anonymous. The annual reports of the players in this game are opaque on the elements of credit/risk "off the sheet" or "off the books". Techniques such as "netting" minimize the numbers reported. Delving through footnotes yields some information but uniformity of revelation is non-existent; making apple to apple comparison impossible. Aggregation, if any, is available in long deferred reporting at the highest macro level." Cavan Man (08/18/00; 19:36:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 35164) ET I'll take you up on that offer also if you don't mind. Normally a cumpulsivie reader, I have been lazy lately. Thanks..CM ET (08/18/00; 19:16:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35163) Shifty Hey Shifty - you wrote;"There is nothing wrong with protecting your own economy. Every country in the world should."There is everything wrong with this philosophy. It leads to economic nationalism and socialism. You will not find the liberty you crave by taking this path. The history of the world confirms this over and over. I hope you find the time to read the Austrians also. ET (08/18/00; 19:02:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35162) Al Al - glad to hear you will be investigating the Austrians. It is more readily described as economics rather than philosophy. You will find it to be nothing more than common sense. Your great-grandfather would find it easy to describe to you as he likely lived it. If I might make a couple of suggestions; start with Mises' "Liberalism". It is a primer on the entire subject and will familiarize you with the basics in just a few hours of reading. After that I know you would enjoy "Omnipotent Government" as it is the history of the modern world through WW2. Both and other titles can be purchased at mises.org. You still have time to finish both before the election! <g>Happy reading! Leigh (08/18/00; 18:28:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35161) "Rollover" I was just shopping at bn.com and noticed that they are selling the movie "Rollover." It is an almost 20 year old movie and can be difficult to find, so this is just a tip to anyone who is looking for it. I haven't seen it, but Golden Truth and others have; it's supposed to be an exciting story about Arab oil ministers and gold. CoBra(too) (08/18/00; 17:09:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35160) Another aspect of free trade may be that some get it for free - the good(ie)s - that is.Though even this advantage (seignorage - according to Sir ORO) had to be hard earned, once - though easily lost anytime. At this juncture - and I don't mean the weekend only - it may be worthwhile of thinking about getting u some more of the almost free gold in exchange of a few already inflated dot com's or more so $'s. - Have a great one - over here the most sizzling is forecasted - best cb2 Cavan Man (08/18/00; 16:11:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35159) Al Fulchino Al-Always enjoy hearing your thoughts. In addition to women, most of all the good things I know has been learned from successful entrepreneurs like yourself. BTW, how'd that box project work out for you and yours? TownCrier (08/18/00; 15:23:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35158) U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES--JUNE 2000 http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/trad0600.htm The U.S. Department of Commerce announced today that the U.S. trade deficit rose by 0.3 billion dollars over the revised May deficit of $30.3 to reach $30.6 billion in June. Although total value of exports rose by 4.0 billion dollars, the wider deficit was caused by an even greater increase in our import values, which gained $4.3 billion. Each category hit new record levels, with exports at $90.6 billion and imports at $121.2 billion. We must ponder, is the dollar getting smaller as a measuring unit, is world commerce getting larger, or a combination of both?Trade items of note: The June quantity of imported crude oil (300.9 million barrels) was the highest amount since 300 million barrels were imported in August 1998. This particularly took its toll on our balance of trade figures because the price of crude oil jumped from the $24.16 a barrel price used in May's calculations to $26.65 for June, its highest level since November 1990, and well above the $14.52 price at this time last year.In total, imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose to $6.03 billion in June from $5.4 billion in May owing to the higher price and the quantity of oil imported. In consequence, the U.S. deficit with oil-producing nations climbed by a half billion dollars over May ($4.1 billion) to the highest level on record.... $4.6 billion. While the landmark trade legislation for China awaits Senate action to follow the House approval in May, our much watched deficit with China vaulted another $0.9 billion over the previous month's deficit of $6.3 billion to a new record $7.2 billion. Will all of this "extra" cash in China find its way to help boost gold as that market is nicely on track to be liberalised?Speaking of cash is flowing to potential gold buyers, the so-called newly industrialized countries (such as Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong) had their wallets padded as imports from them to the U.S. reached a record $9.7 billion.GOLD -- GOLD -- GOLDAfter exports of nonmonetary gold in April (ballpark 27 tonnes) and May (approximately 22 tonnes) returned briefly to levels closer to their historic norm following the prior six-month span of lofty shipments, figures for June reveal that the net movement of gold into foreign ownership is once again in full force.Seasonally adjusted figures show June gold exports at $432 million versus revised May exports at $225 million, while June gold imports fell to $186 million from May's revised $195 million tally.Year-to-date figures for the first six months of 2000 now reveal that $3.3 Billion in gold has switched to foreign ownership, whereas during this same time last year only $1.5 Billion had left U.S. ownership--over double the 1999 value.Standing with shakey legs against this gold "outflow" are the year-to-date figures on the import side...revealing that the first six months of 2000 witnessed an inflow of $1.4 Billion, slightly down from the $1.5 Billion imported during the first half of 1999.The final analysis is that while last years' first half imports and exports were at "break even" values for no net change, statistics for the first half of this year reveal that we have a net loss of $1.9 BILLION in gold, and growing. This does not even take into account the markedly higher gold export levels that began to show in the final three months of 1999. Clearly, the non-U.S. portion of the world still values gold with more reverence than we do in general. Don't let yourself be caught out when, correspondingly, either their faith in the U.S. dollar greatly wanes or our available gold stock is depleted...whichever comes first.Statistical note: Because U.S. Census Bureau data includes only gold that passes under the purview of Customs, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis adjusts these gold figures to arrive at more suitable accounting for balance of payments to reflect static changes in ownership "in line with the concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national accounts." To that end, exports are adjusted for gold that is purchased by foreign official agencies from U.S. dealers and held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and similarly, import figures are adjusted to reflect gold sold by such foreign agencies from their stock held at the FRB of NY. beesting (08/18/00; 15:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 35157) A Little History....Free Trade...... and Climate! Back in the early days of what is now known as the United States, it was discovered that cotton plants flourished in the southern regions. Large cotton plantations soon appeared in the south and all the cotton was exported to England because thats where the first textile mills were located. Exactly how the mills turned cotton into cloth was a close-ly guarded secret in England, as the English knew labor costs were much cheaper in other parts of the world( Sound Familiar?).Along came a man named Samual Slater who memorized the entire construction of a textile mill. Samual settled in New England(U.S.) and proceeded to build a textile mill. Cotton that was once shipped to England was now shipped to a much closer New England, and made into cloth.New England became a textile capital. About 100 to 150 years passed until someone realized textile mills could be put up in the area that grew cotton, and cloth could be produced more cheaply without the added charge of transportation, and it was done.Another 50 or so years passed and somebody realized cloth from American grown cotton could be made cheaper, where labor costs were cheaper.Mexico and overseas!So, American cotton is shipped overseas, made into cloth, and clothing and sold to the highest bidder, currently the U.S. who has the strongest "fiat currency", and here we are today.Could this last scenario happen under a Gold monetary system? I personally don't think so, because if all currencies had an approximate equal amount of Gold backing, and Gold was used in every day trade, and all Governmental financial productivity figures were disallowed(especially import export figures) because of known "cooking the books", wouldn't wages around the world come more in line with each other in relation to the price of Gold?The real problems with World Trade are the different "VALUES" of the local "FIAT" currencies controlled by "The G-7 Countries"!One other side note that I haven't seen discussed here:Worldwide wages may never be equal simply because it costs much more to live in a cold climate than a warm climate.(Insulation,winterizing a vehicle, warm clothes, the list goes on and on. Ask Sir Harry Lime or YGM{{Yukon Gold Miner}or,North of 49, a few of the posters here, who would know.) The extreme northern and southern latitudes require much more expense just to keep from freezing to death, than the Equatorial and sub Equatorial zones.Still accumulating Gold ""The Money With No International Borders""as insurance for an unknown future....beesting. SHIFTY (08/18/00; 15:10:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35156) Hill Billy Mitchell : I know RossL is a good man. He would not be here if he wasn't. $hifty Al Fulchino (08/18/00; 14:57:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 35155) ET / MK ET, I will at some time give the Austrian philosophy a look...the hint I get now is that it is of a libertarian approach. < I might be wrong>. I known some libertarians. Their hearts are often in the right place, but they keep forgetting that they foster their ideals in a Republic, that used to know how to defend its borders from people who wish us harm. Much like the seventies liberal who wished to believe their was any good in a Soviet leader. Libertarians keep thinking that if they don't bother anyone, then no one will bother them and all can trade freely. It never has worked that way and never will as long as some in this world are willing to take what you have.MK thanks for letting me say what I had to say the last few days. It is your forum. It is largely supposed to be about gold and such. I took it down a different path, when I didn't like something that was said. I think I am done with the issue <smile> Hill Billy Mitchell (08/18/00; 14:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35154) SHIFTY (08/18/00; 13:44:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 35152) Shifty:Don't get your hockey hot, dude.Ross is "good beans" SHIFTY (08/18/00; 14:10:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35153) REPOST I am not against trading goods with other countries around the world. We have had goods from all over the world for as long as we have been a country! We did not need Free Trade for it then did we ? What we haven't had ( till lately under Free Trade NAFTA, GATT, WTO ) is the dumping of goods at or near slave labor wages! Without tariffs the playing field is not level and the country with the higher standard of living will not retain it.Don't we have some trade numbers out tomorrow? Think the USA will have a trade surplus? No, because the people still need to make enough money, to pay for a mortgage, utilities, insurance, taxes,car payment, ect. and will not work for .18 cents an hour. Not without bloodshed.Did we have a surplus in 1966 ? I think we did , but I was in kindergarten that year and it was the last thing on my mind.$hifty SHIFTY (08/18/00; 13:44:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 35152) RossL RossL what pray tell can a person who makes .25 cents a day going to buy from the United States ? He or She does need to eat and even if he or she grew there own food, they cant even buy a postage stamp! I want no part of doing this to another human being. There is nothing wrong with protecting your own economy. Every country in the world should .Do you lock your house when you are away?Do you have a spare tire in your trunk in case you get a flat?I do you own GOLD ?All these things are protectionist. Do true died in wool Libertarians not do these things?Good GOD man open your eyes .$hifty RossL (08/18/00; 12:56:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35151) Some notes for today http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm The definition in my old dictionary of "free trade" speaks about the exchange of goods without duties, tariffs, taxes, or government restrictions or the use of force to change the prices or availability of the goods.The definition in my old dictionary of "liberal" speaks about persons advocating maximum individual freedom and unhindered progress in the development of the capabilities of a people.The people in Washington DC who advocate free trade are not for free trade. The people in Washington DC who call themselves liberal are not liberal. If a country has an average wage of 25 cents a day, then that is likely the result of an illiberal government and a lack of free trade. Leigh (08/18/00; 12:33:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35150) A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words http://news.excite.com/photo/img/r/clinton/20000815/wasw01d?r=/photo/topic/news/clinton Bill and Buddy. SHIFTY (08/18/00; 12:31:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35149) nummus aureus I hadn't thought about a service economy in that way before but it fits! I was glad to see a fellow archer here! I have never made my own bow. My uncle who taught me how to shoot a bow made all his own equipment back in the 50s. Glad to see the art is not lost.$hifty nummus aureus (08/18/00; 12:14:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 35148) Service Industries... Sir Shifty,If I may interject briefly, an anecdote on your previous post. My Grandfather was of the the old school concerning behavior and language in mixed company. He would never make a comment about putting the bull in with the milk cows to be bred, rather, he might comment that the cows were being "serviced."I fear you are correct, Sir. The world's oldest occupation has many advocates, and our future will likely be "serviced" beyond redemption. I see no merit in our leaders claims of having "hearts of gold." SHIFTY (08/18/00; 11:30:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35147) gidsek Free Trade Why do we need Free Trade? People owned foreign cars and other foreign products before we had it, and poor uneducated people around the world were not exploited by global corporations over greed. Remember what goes around comes around. Paybacks are hell. I fear that this country will pay a terrible price so a few connected people can get richer than they already are. We could loose our country altogether. The US has no problem sticking its nose in the affairs of other nations around the world with its friends the UN. If the citizens of the US find themselves owing a large amount of wealth to other countries around the world, but like a bunch of fools they have lost their value added job base they will not be able to do much more than become indentured servants in their own homeland. And if they protest I'm sure that the UN will waltz right in to keep the peace. How can we protest such a move when we condone that type of action today ourselves? The people in Washington DC have told us that we are a service economy, so I guess we should get use to doing each others laundry. What a bright future to leave to the next generation of Americans. $hifty wolavka (08/18/00; 10:40:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35146) wake up bugs I smell something gidsek (08/18/00; 10:09:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 35145) Shifty "( $hifty: Tell that to the little girl chained to a sewing machine at the NIKIE factory! I'm sure she will sleep better)"I wouldn't want the job of telling her, and I think that clearly, you are a big-hearted person, but isn't it true that if the process had been allowed to begin 20 years ago that that little girl wouldn't be in the NIKIE factory today?gidsek nummus aureus (08/18/00; 10:08:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35144) Wooded path to Gold Sir Peter,I am astonished at the similarity of our reasoning regarding timber. I purchased 20 acres of "waste ground" (it's tax definition), some years ago, here in Kansas, near my farm. I cut out the scrub, planted walnut trees, and seeded clover in the sunlit areas. Thinning produces firewood for my shop and cash sales, the land provides camping, recreation, hunting and fishing, and a food source for wildlife and my bees. Interestingly, a government planted hedge row from the 1930's of Osage Orange (bows d'arc), provides the raw material for building traditional archery bows, which I just happen to sell for the cash equivalent of an oz. of gold on the reservations hereabouts. It could be claimed that the government provided me with a modest gold mine in Kansas. The sale of black walnuts alone, covers the initial purchase price of the land every year, and the standing timber asset makes the wall street boom look like the joke it is. I am delighted to pay the $3.42 property tax each year. Truly, gold is where you find it. USAGOLD (08/18/00; 09:47:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35143) Trade Deficit Up 53% Over First Six Months 1999, Gold Physical Buying Ratchets Up http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html DAILY COMMENTARY (8/18/00) www.USAGOLD.com . . . Gold was off a bit in the early going today as the financial markets attempted to digest the potential effects of another record trade deficit -- $30.6 billion. For those who need a wider time frame in which to assess the amount of drift in these whopper trade numbers, I would cite another statistic even more alarming than the first: For the first six months of the year the United States has run a trade deficit of $177.6 billion compared to $116 billion for the same period 1999 -- a mere 53% increase. All of which had the odd effect of sending the dollar higher on international markets and the bond and stock market into a tenuous holding pattern though one would imagine some heavy breathing here and there. Go figure. . .but then again its early. Gold on the other hand reverted to summer doldrums style trading overseas and this carried over to the New York open. The yellow has been buoyed over the past week by strong worldwide physical demand, inflation concerns, rising oil prices and a large overhanging short position in futures' markets that will need to be bought back at some point in the future. None of this is lost on gold investors who see the current price as an opportunity. Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD is experiencing an unexpected wave of gold buying as buyers take advantage of the current bargain basement prices -- and it has been going on for nearly a month now. There may be summer doldrums in the price, but there are no summer doldrums in terms of physical demand. As we have advised over the past few weeks, in years past summer doldrums' prices have often looked attractive as we move into fall and the perennially stormy October financial season. In addition if the Fed keeps its finger on the hold button at Tuesday's FOMC meeting, it might be the last good news the equities markets are going to get for awhile. And after the election, anything goes. . . That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a restful weekend.See you back here Monday. If you are looking for a source of news, commentary and analysis on gold and all that affects it, we invite you try a free trial subscription to our widely read monthly newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. We offer solid commentary in a rapid fire, no-nonsense, bullet format designed for busy people who want gold related news and opinion without the unnecessary fluff. Please call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 or click here to request News & Views as well as our helpful introductory information packet for gold investors. We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public. PLEASE REMEMBER: It is your purchase of gold from Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages. Call us at 1-800-869-5115 for prices and to have your questions answered.IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO RECEIVE A FREE INFORMATION PACKET ON GOLD OWNERSHIP, PLEASE GO TO THE LINK AT THE TOP OF THIS REPORT. wolavka (08/18/00; 09:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35142) Floor clowns on comex We all know the support point of dec gold today retraces back to the breakout on may 31st close of 280.60, so let's get on with the game.No more suckers to sell under 280 cause the trade goes no place.Take it up and clean out some buy stops.Your buddies won't mind. CoBra(too) (08/18/00; 08:58:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 35141) Inflation fears by idustry all over Europe's papers today! Industry produces, in spite of high? raw materials prices, more than ever before. Together with higher employment, and the explosive energy prices akin to the 73 oil crisis, governments call for prudent wage settlements this fall. While industry still is optimistic, capital ivestment has fallen to 8,6 from 23,4 year over year in Austria alone, where inflation (mostly imported-low euro and high oil?) now is at 2,7%, slightly above EU average of of 2.4%. Some economists argue an expected interest rate rise in September of 0.25 may already be too little or too late. Happy for you guys across the pond not (officially) feeling the sting - best cb2PS: ET - thanks for kind words - always love your posts. Black Blade (08/18/00; 08:35:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 35140) There's oil again, and even nonmonetary Gold mentioned again. U.S. Trade Deficit Widened to $30.62 Billion in June on Rising Oil ImportsFriday, August 18, 2000 08:46 AM ET WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The trade gap between the U.S. and its global trading partners widened again in June, reaching a new record on increased oil-related imports. The Commerce Department said Friday the deficit grew to $30.62 billion in June, up from $30.31 billion in May. Previously, the May gap had been estimated at a much higher $31.04 billion. Economists had estimated a deficit of $31.4 million in June, according to Thomson Global Markets. The smaller-than-expected deficit suggests a pause in the recent trend of increasing reliance on foreign capital by the U.S. While the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next Tuesday, monetary policymakers have shown increasing concern over the trade gap in recent months. While sales of goods and services abroad grew in June, posting their first gain since March, imports rebounded strongly from May's decline as well.Exports rose 4.6% to $90.56 billion, while imports rose 3.7% to a $121.18 billion. Both the export and import levels set records. The Commerce Department attributed most of the gain in imports in June to increased crude oil and motor vehicle imports. Part of the gain in crude oil imports likely stemmed from rising prices seen in the late spring. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, crude petroleum imports rose to $8.02 billion in June from May's $7.17 billion. The price per barrel hit $26.65 billion in June, up from $24.16 billion in May and the highest level since November 1990.Imports of cars and car parts rose by $1.06 billion in the month. On the export side, the U.S. saw its greatest gains in big-ticket capital goods sales, particularly semiconductors and computer accessories. The U.S. also exported more raw industrial supplies, including nonmonetary gold and nuclear fuel. Exports of civilian aircraft, which often act as a major swing factor in the monthly trade report, were down only slightly in June, at $2.40 billion. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the trade gap in goods alone actually dipped in June, falling to $37.39 billion from May's $38.35 billion. Higher crude prices also propelled the deficit with members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to a record $4.58 billion, reflecting imports of $6.03 billion, also the highest on record. A year earlier, the deficit with OPEC was only $1.98 billion. For the first half of this year, this deficit reached $22.31 billion, compared with just $7.47 billion in the same period a year earlier. Deficits with most other major U.S. trading partners breached new records in June, with the exceptions of Japan and the European Union. The trade shortfall with Japan shrank again to $6.31 billion from $6.94 in May. However, the deficit of $39.71 billion this year so far is still higher than the $33.45 billion recorded a year ago. The politically worrisome deficit with China hit a new high of $7.22 billion in June, up from $6.31 billion. The year-to-date deficit with China reached $36.11 billion, well above $29.35 billion recorded in the same period a year ago. The U.S. didn't perform much better against its North American Free Trade Agreement, or Nafta, partners. June deficits with Canada, $4.34 billion, and Mexico, $2.28 billion were both records. The May deficits with Canada and Mexico were revised to $3.72 billion and $2.45 billion, respectively. However, the deficit with the EU fell to $4.00 billion in June from $5.02 billion in May. The deficit could be on the agenda for discussion at a Fed conference set for next week in Wyoming. An academic paper to be presented there theorizes the U.S. dollar could lose between 12% to 45% of its value should the current-account picture move into balance. In July testimony before a House panel, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said eventually "something has got to give" and it was unclear if it would happen in an orderly fashion or "occur more abruptly. "The trade gap grew sharply in response to overseas financial crises in 1997 and 1998 that weakened demand for U.S.-made goods but has defied expectations of shrinking. Strong demand domestically has instead led to continued widening of imports compared with exports. wolavka (08/18/00; 07:58:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35139) support @ 280 dec gold has support here, needs to hold, low for today SHIFTY (08/18/00; 07:42:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 35138) Pete (8/18/2000; 6:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35135 free trade Thank you Pete!I hope that people will take the time to think about this issue. God knows the bureaucrats sure can lay on the propaganda. This time as you point out the numbers are in. This I believe is the number one reason that the two main parties , or should I say party , does not want Buchanan in the debates. $hifty Buena Fe (08/18/00; 07:28:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35137) currency intervention! very obvious......-poor trade #s.......so wack the Euro......wack gold.....prop up the dollar! gotta fight fire with fire. Pete (8/18/2000; 6:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35136) More grist for the mill Date: Fri Aug 18 2000 08:16Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: If half the gunowners in this country voted for Buchanon, all that would matter for the rors or soccer moms and other NWO wanna' be's to decide is what nazi/socialist/communist country to relocate to...Date: Fri Aug 18 2000 08:45SlangKing (small change) ID#293152:Copyright © 2000 SlangKing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved WASHINGTON ( AFX ) - The trade deficit for goods and services widened to arecord seasonally adjusted 30.6 bln usd in June from a revised 30.3 bln in May,the Commerce Department said. In percentage terms, the trade deficit widened 1.0 pct. The trade deficit was in line with expectations. The consensus forecast ofWall Street analysts had predicted the May deficit would widen slightly to 31.1bln usd from the initial estimate of 31.0 bln in May. Both imports and exports rose to record levels in June, but import growthoutweighed the gain in exports, the department said. Imports rose 3.7 pct to 121.2 bln usd, while exports rose 4.6 pct to 90.6bln. The deficit with Japan widened to 6.31 bln usd in June from 6.36 bln a yearearlier. The deficit with Japan was 6.94 bln usd in May. The trade deficit with China widened to a record 7.22 bln usd in June, from5.68 bln in the same month a year earlier. The trade deficit with China was 6.31bln usd in May. For the first six months of the year, the deficit widened 53.1 pct to177.60 bln usd from 115.98 bln over the same period last year. cxa/jjc/jsa Pete (8/18/2000; 6:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35135) Free trade-An oxymoron http://www.house.gov/defazio/fast-trk.htm This is for those that believe our government supports free trade. The gullible are being fleeced. Both parties endorse this monstrosity while Buchanan does not. Will you be the next casualty of free trade?"The rich get richer and the poor get poorer," all in the name of free trade. A misnomer of gigantic proportions! Globalism is the objective of so called free traders. Wake up before it's too late.Gold is the last safe haven for those that do not buy into rhetoric and brain washing.FAST TRACK-- More of the Same Flawed Trade Policies By Rep. Peter DeFazioPendleton Woolen Mills, whose well-known plaid shirts were proudly Made in Oregon for more than 40years, recently announced it is closing its last Oregon manufacturing plant. Production will most likelymove to Mexico, where the company already manufactures 40 percent of its clothing. Pendleton's plantmanager was quoted saying that NAFTA the North American Free Trade Agreement "sold us down thetubes." The President and Republican leaders in Congress want to expand NAFTA to include Chile and otherLatin American nations. They are pushing so-called "fast track" legislation that would allow the Presidentto bring a new trade agreement to Congress, with no amendments and only limited debate. But before werush into an expansion of NAFTA, we should ask how the agreement has worked during its four year life. During the 1993 debate over NAFTA, prominent economists, administration officials, members ofCongress and editorial writers throughout the land trumpeted their support for the agreement. Economistspredicted huge U.S. trade surpluses with Mexico as a result of the agreement. The Clinton Administrationpromised significant employment gains for American workers as Mexican consumers went on a shoppingspree. Many congressional supporters hailed NAFTA's side agreements that were supposed to protect theenvironment and promote better wages and working conditions in Mexican factories. Fortunately, we no longer have to depend upon the projections of economists or the promises ofpoliticians. NAFTA is nearing its fourth anniversary. The results of this failed experiment are in. One widely quoted economic study predicted $12 billion annual U.S. trade surpluses with Mexico after thepassage of NAFTA. It missed the mark. The record shows that a $1.7 billion U.S. trade surplus withMexico in 1993 (the year NAFTA passed) turned into a $17 billion trade deficit in 1996. The numbers areeven worse than they look. Nearly two- thirds of U.S. exports to Mexico are "revolving door" exportsparts that are assembled in Mexican plants and shipped right back to the U.S. for final sale. The tragedy that struck Pendleton's Oregon workers has been repeated in nearly every state of the unionsince NAFTA passed. The Department of Labor has reluctantly certified that more than 140,000 U.S.workers have lost their jobs as a result of NAFTA, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. Using standardemployment multipliers, the huge and growing trade deficits with Mexico and Canada translate into theloss of 420,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs since 1993. NAFTA-related job losses account for about 38percent of the 1.1 million family wage U.S. manufacturing jobs lost since 1989. This doesn't take into account the impact of employers threatening to move jobs to Mexico. A reportcommissioned by the NAFTA Labor Secretariat found that over half of the surveyed firms used plantclosure threats to fight union organizing drives. Threats to move to Mexico have had a chilling effect onU.S. workers' wage and benefit demands. What about NAFTA's impacts on the lives of Mexican workers? Since the trade pact passed, real hourlywages in Mexico have declined. The percentage of Mexican citizens considered extremely poor was 31percent in 1993. By 1996, the percentage had grown to 50 percent. The facts are clear: NAFTA has beena disaster for workers on both sides of the border. The damage goes beyond trade deficits and job losses. NAFTA is compromising the safety of our nation'sfood supply with its limits on border inspections of Mexican produce. The huge increase in produceimports from Mexico has overwhelmed an already inadequate inspection system. One study found thatbetween 12 and 20 percent of imported Mexican strawberries, head lettuce and carrots are contaminatedwith unsafe levels of illegal pesticides. A recent outbreak of hepatitis in Michigan was traced to importedMexican strawberries. NAFTA requires that Mexican truck traffic be given unlimited access to U.S. highways by the year 2000.Yet half of the Mexican trucks examined by U.S. inspectors are pulled off the road for serious safetyviolations and the U.S. inspects only 1 out of every 200 trucks crossing the border from Mexico. These problems illustrate the fundamental flaw with this kind of free trade. A trade agreement betweennations with vast differences in wages, environmental standards and health and safety regulations mustrequire improvements in the less developed nation's standards or it will drag down the more developedtrading partner. Unconditioned trade agreements like NAFTA have been a major contributor to decliningreal wages in the U.S., and our nation's growing disparities in wealth and income. The Clinton Administration's fast track proposal not only fails to push for stronger labor andenvironmental standards, it places unprecedented restrictions on the incorporation of such standards in anyfuture trade agreement. Under the President's proposal, even NAFTA's ineffective labor andenvironmental side agreements would be precluded from consideration under fast track procedures. NAFTA was never about "opening up foreign markets." Its most significant provisions were not itsrelatively modest tariff reductions, but the agreement's strong protections for U.S. and other foreigninvestment in Mexico. Those protections were intended to promote the construction of U.S.manufacturing plants in Mexico that would produce goods bound for the huge U.S. consumer market.That's exactly what has happened since the agreement was passed in 1993. This kind of free trade represents the triumph of property rights over the rights of human beings to decentwages, healthy working conditions and an unpolluted environment. NAFTA has hurt workers on bothsides of the border and has been disastrous for the environment. The President's fast track legislation is aprescription for more of the same. Black Blade (8/18/2000; 6:33:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 35134) "Morning Wakeup Call" Sources: BridgeNews and Financial Times THE EASTERN FRONT:Asia Precious Metals Review: Spot gold eases in thin tradeBy Mari Iwata and Polly Yam, BridgeNewsTokyo--Aug. 18--Spot gold eased in Asia on Friday on lack of follow-through buying after it rose overnight in the U.S. market, dealers said. Gold is expected to test its nearby resistance of U.S. $280 in the near term given that selling interest has been at minimal levels over the past couple of days, they said. Dealers reported that trading in silver, platinum and palladium had been sluggish on Friday.Black Blade: Yawn.JAPAN: PLATINUM SUPPLY SEEN REMAINING TIGHT-JAPAN TRADERS.By Fumiko Fujisaki - 18 Aug 2000 08:50GMT TOKYO, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Japanese platinum traders doubt world supplies will be boosted much after Russia's state-owned Vneshtorgbank was granted an export licence, adding that expanded output by South Africa was likely to have a greater impact. They stressed, however, that supplies remain tight in the world market and fast-growing demand could easily mop up any increase in supply in the years ahead. Expectations of rising supplies intensified after separate announcements on Thursday from Russia and South Africa, the world's two biggest producers, that Vneshtorgbank plans to export platinum this year for the first time and that a South African mine owned jointly by Anglo American Platinum and Australia's Aquarius Platinum plans to triple capacity. The news comes as the market's supply shortfall is expected to expand this year on strong demand for jewellery and industrial uses such as exhaust-cleaning autocatalysts. The supply deficit rose to an unprecedented 22.7 tonnes, or 14 percent of total supply, in 1999, according to refiners Johnson Matthey. Yukuji Sonoda, a precious metals analyst at Japanese brokerage Daiichi Commodities, predicted the shortfall this year would reach 37.3 tonnes. The president of Russia's Vneshtorgbank told reporters on Thursday the bank had been issued a five tonne platinum export quota and had obtained an export licence, and planned to export the full five tonnes. Japanese market sources stressed that it was still unclear, however, whether that represented an increase in supply or just a shift in export routes. With world platinum supplies estimated at about 151.5 tonnes last year by refiners Johnson Matthey, with Russia accounting for 16.8 tonnes, an additional five tonnes would be no small amount for the world market, Daiichi's Sonoda said. But a source at a major trading house doubted Vneshtorgbank's licence would boost Russia's overall export volume: "We have not confirmed the news but even if it is confirmed, it may only be a change in Russia's sales channels." Last year, Russian supplies were significantly reduced by a legal changes that prevented Norilsk Nickel, one of three licensed Russian exporters, from exporting platinum. The law was amended in the last week of 1999. While traders eagerly sought details on the news from Russia, they expected a greater effect on the market from news that Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), the world's largest platinum producer, and Aquarius Platinum agreed to boost capacity at the Kroondal mine to 300,000 ounces (9.3 tonnes) per year from 100,000 ounces. Daiichi's Sonoda said expansions at existing mines were a more promising means of increasing world supply than new greenfield projects. "There aren't thought to be any big undeveloped deposits of platinum left any more." He said, however, that foreign producers would likely wait for further platinum price gains before significantly expanding production capacity. "If spot prices go up to $800 or so, producers are expected to boost their output." Spot platinum rose to a 12-year high of $612 an ounce on August 2, reflecting uncertainty about the availability of platinum-group metals from Russia, which supplies 10 percent of world platinum. On Friday afternoon it was quoted at $566/$574 an ounce. Traders said the expansion plan at the Kroondal mine will help increase global supplies, but that demand is expected to grow at a faster pace in the coming years. Sonoda said demand could particularly surge around the middle of the decade as automakers start using platinum-based fuel cells in lieu of gasoline engines to meet increasingly strict emission control standards.Black Blade: Typical analysts, always late to the party. Nothing really new here, though there is a lot of BS about reasons for the shortage, etc. At least as long as these idiots are late to the party, no one here is likely to be surprised to see a turd in the punchbowl after they show up.THE RUSSIAN FRONT:Pan American aims to resolve Russia silver project issue in Q3 Toronto--Aug. 17--Canada's Pan American Silver Corp. intends to resolve the uncertainty surrounding its Dukat silver project in Russia by the end of the third quarter, a company spokeswoman told BridgeNews on Thursday. Pan American Silver is still evaluating its options, which include a potential partnership with a Russian natural resources firm and reaching an agreement with the private firm that outbid it for the Dukat mill's infrastructure assets. (Story .19087)Black Blade: I hate to tell these guy this, but no foreigner has actually successfully operated a mine in the former Soviet Union. These guys got raped and mugged! They will get milked dry before it's all over.Meanwhile, S&P Futures S7P Futures +2.90, Fair Value +4.06, a slightly to weakly positive. Oil is up smartly $0.25 at $32.25/bbl as OPEC has no plans to increase production ahead of the Sept. meeting. Any shutdown of refineries either for maintenance or catastrophe at this point in time will be critical as refineries are operating at near full capacity and barely keeping a balance of supply and demand. Any increase in production is meaningless as it can not be refined any faster. Prices for petroleum are destined to continue upward. Au is down -$0.80 at $276.50, Ag down a penny at $4.83, Pt unchanged at $565.00, and Pd up a buck at $740.00. Inflation is looking more likely, and even pundits are questioning the BLS inflation numbers. With rising energy and petroleum prices we are headed into one hell of a collision with inflation. The bogus CPI and PPI numbers don't hold up under even the most cursory examination. Buy PMs at these cheap prices while you can. It just might not last long. Black Blade (8/18/2000; 5:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35133) The Fall of the Palladium Markets: The Palladium futures markets lately took one pounding after another. A few weeks ago when it became painfully clear that the Russians were incapable of delivering Palladium to market, the price of palladium exploded upward. The Japanese Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) was the first to default on contracts in order to bail out those who were gullible enough to believe reports of forth-coming deliveries and short the metal. Instead, many longs were sacrificed by unscrupulous and dishonorable Japanese TOCOM officials when they defualted on these contracts. In effect, they severely damaged the market and their reputations as well. In days of yore, when honorable Japanese brought dishonor upon their profession, they at the very least had the decency to apologize and resign, some even went as far as to commit ritual suicide through the ceremony known as Hari Kiri. Apparently these modern despicable creatures have no honor and have more in common with the Yakuza (Japanese organized crime families). But I digress. Lately the prices began to rebound as Russian deliveries failed to materialize. The manipulators weren't finished though. They fed a stream of misinformation to the market place. These rumors were almost daily reports of forth-coming Russian deliveries. The market was fooled time and again. However, like the little boy who kept crying "Wolf!", the market became weary of the lies. The manipulators had to find a new strategy. They even went as far as to claim that deliveries were actually made (an out-right lie!). The Palladium markets began to recover and prices began to rise again. Unfortunately for Goldbugs, this is an all too familiar story. The price rise gained momentum as a precipitous technical shortfall built up between the amount of metal sold forward in futures contracts and the amount actually available in warehouses. This latest price rise was unacceptable, and as was done in the past, rules were made to be broken. This time the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX) took a few swipes at the longs. The amount of the futures contracts totaled more than 133,000 ounces compared to 17,000 ounces of metal in the warehouses. Of course the CFTC was once again asleep at the wheel and again proved themselves as a worthless and gutless oversight agency, bought and paid for by the very interests they were commissioned to keep a watch over. Ah well, who needs a free market anyway. At least it is orderly! The NYMEX decision to raise margin requirements to over 100% of the value of the Palladium metal is unprecedented! This decision added to the mayhem in the Palladium market and the wild selling of futures contracts began. The price of Palladium fell faster than a flaming French Concorde. Well, maybe not an orderly market after all! Meanwhile, "anonymous" sources continue to claim that the "Russians are Coming!" but that is very unlikely since the Russians sold everything they could for hard currency long ago, and even so, much was stolen and probably released on the black market through "backstreet channels" by now. Any future deliveries will be coming from current production at Norilsk Nickel (a very inefficient Soviet era mine and smelter operation), presumably under extremely heavy guard. The PGMs are by-product from Norilsk Nickels nickel mining operations, and the company has already delayed shipments of copper and nickel signaling that there is a much greater problem than is being admitted to. It is obvious that this part of the PGM market is dead, and that the new margin requirements were designed to shake out as many players as possible before delisting Palladium. The real story here isn't necessarily about Palladium since it is a very rare mineral. But rather the tactics that are likely to be employed by dishonorable metals exchanges officials (TOCOM and NYMEX), and the incompetence of regulators (CFTC) , are the same that can be expected to be employed against those in Platinum, Gold, and Silver markets. All for the same lame excuse - that there needs to be an orderly market! Certainly, physical metal is best and safest, solid profitable and debt-free unhedged mining shares are next best, and the paper trades are likely to be a very dangerous place to be in an explosive market. With the fundamental "Big-Picture" changes occuring in the world around us, the explosive rise in PM prices could be just around the corner.Black Blade SHIFTY (8/18/2000; 4:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35132) gidsek free trade You said : "Foreigners "working for $.18/hour" as you put it will naturally organize and fight to protect themselves from exploitation just as our grandfathers did, their wages will eventually rise. It is a painful process to be sure and one of which a worker in a wealthy country is naturally suspicious since the benefits of this "equalization" may not accrue to him/her in their lifetime.( $hifty: Tell that to the little girl chained to a sewing machine at the NIKIE factory! I'm sure she will sleep better)$hifty wolavka (8/18/2000; 4:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35131) Never give In Watch euroland cpi and trade #'s.Pattern for gold is much higher. globex retrace okay, next new york open. SteveH (8/18/2000; 4:13:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35130) repost www.kitco.com Somehow this seems significant. But then, maybe not. You decide.repost:Date: Fri Aug 18 2000 00:23Flash (Sept 18 could be a significant day for the euro ( Sept 19th BOE Auction)) ID#301318:-Euro faces pressure from index changes Portfolio managers may unload billions of euros and snap up pounds in coming weeks as they adjust to changes in European stock indices, dealing a blow to the single currency already struggling to hold above its record low. Stoxx is recalculating weightings of firms in its widely tracked Dow Jones Stoxx indices. The change, which takes effect on September 18, will force those portfolio managers who have to match the indices' performance to buy more British shares at the expense of European stocks, selling euros for sterling in the process. "The amount of money that has to be switched is of the magnitude of a major [merger or acquisition] deal, which obviously has an impact on currencies," said Steve Englander, a global currency economist at Citibank. "In terms of market capitalisation, the bigger flows are to sterling" and out of the euro. It is difficult to place an exact figure on the total stock and currency flows, analysts say, although most agree British and Swiss shares will be net gainers, while eurozone stocks lose out. About US$7.4 billion will head into Britain, while $9.6 billion exits Europe, according to Tomas Jelf, a currency analyst at UBS Warburg. The rebalancing will determine a firm's index value based on tradable shares, or so-called free float, instead of market capitalisation. British companies tend to have higher free floats than their eurozone counterparts. "[September 18] could be a significant day for the euro," said Chris Furness, a currency strategist at 4Cast. "I'd be surprised if we didn't test the all-time lows." More: http://www.scmp.com/News/Markets/Article/FullText_asp_ArticleID-20000818011424106.asp SteveH (8/18/2000; 4:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35129) Peter and IMF http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_884000/884961.stm Good woodsy story.Russia,Brazil, Mexico, and Korea are paying it back. See link. SteveH (8/18/2000; 4:00:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35128) Pete Well said old man.;-) WAC (Wide Awake Club) (8/18/2000; 3:04:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35127) @ORO - Panama to discuss G7 money-laundering blacklist http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/000817/80/ageug.html PANAMA CITY, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Panama is set to send a high-level government delegation to four European countries in September in a bid to improve the international standing of the country's G7-blacklisted financial centre, Panama's foreign minister said on Thursday."The aim of the visit is to demonstrate to our counterparts (in Europe) the seriousness with which Panama takes the issue ... and to show them by diplomatic means the priority which Panama is giving to resolve it," Foreign Minister Jose Miguel Aleman told Reuters.In June, Panama's 87-bank financial centre was placed on a G7 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist of 15 "noncooperative" banking havens not doing enough to combat hot money transactions. The G7 is an economic bloc of the world's most powerful industrialised nations.The Panamanian delegation, to be headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Harmodio Arias and Special Ambassador for International Services Carlos Cordero, is scheduled to meet with authorities in France, Germany, Spain and Britain.Following the G7 blacklisting, a government-led consultative group made up of banking, security and law enforcement representatives, has met weekly to review existing banking regulations and hammer out proposed changes.Recommendations include extending the current list of offences linked to money laundering to cover arms trafficking, kidnapping, extortion and contraband.The proposal is scheduled for debate by Panama's legislature on return from recess on Sept. 1.Panama's banking sector, which recorded assets totalling $37 billion at the close of 1999, already has more than 40 regulations overseeing transactions, including cash declaration and know-your-client laws. gidsek (8/18/2000; 2:09:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35126) Free Trade Wow! I weighed in after reading Shiftys' post and later looked back on the threads to see that I'm at the tail end of a large and illuminating discussion. I'll have to review all this over the week-end, I may have been a ittle "knee jerk" about this issue though I believe I agree with this statement by Peter Asher"Governments, institutions and the Super -rich have the power to inhibit free trade. Trade laws and Tarriffs can offset this or exacerbate it, but "free-trade" per se' is not possible in a fiat money credit economy."good night goldbugsgidsek gidsek (8/18/2000; 1:52:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 35125) Shifty "Without tariffs the playing field is not level and the country with the higher standard of living will not retain it."With tariffs the playing field can never become level, the opposite side of the tariff coin being capital controls and restrictions on foreign ownership that poor countries use to prevent their nations from being bought out from under them (this also has the effect of lowering a currency internationally). Capital and Investment flow naturally to activities and places which will provide the greatest return. Tariffs and their opposite numbers serve to maintain unnatural imbalances in world trade, somewhat like lifting a rock to a great height and holding it there, the process of subverting free trade requires a waste of economic energy and resources that parties on both sides of the divide will feel.Foreigners "working for $.18/hour" as you put it will naturally organize and fight to protect themselves from exploitation just as our grandfathers did, their wages will eventually rise. It is a painful process to be sure and one of which a worker in a wealthy country is naturally suspicious since the benefits of this "equalization" may not accrue to him/her in their lifetime."the country with the higher standard of living will not retain it."This is likely true of countries but not of productive individuals. Also this overlooks the role of wealthy countries making use of cheap labour and resources to produce technological improvements that raise living standards for all, lifting civilization to new heights and complexity. The miracle economy in the Japan of the '70s & '80s began with the onset of enormous increases in the price of oil. It was what they could do with that expensive oil, the value that they could add to it that made the difference.IMHO & FWIWgidsek Peter Asher (8/18/2000; 1:28:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35124) Timmmbrrrr !! Hill Billy Mitchell You probably noticed CavenMan's aside regarding myself and timberland. About a year ago I sent him a dissertation on Timber some of which I posted this April. I pulled the file and added comments regarding your post, so here goes: ---I blundered into forestry 11 years ago when I was looking for some acreage with an ocean view. As is so often the case with real estate agents, I was told "we have just what your looking for" and then he drove to something totally different. Just as I was summoning up the fortitude to tell him to turn the ---- around, he said something about the waterfall. Well I thought that all waterfalls were owned by the government or families that "never" sell them, so I was hooked. With the water fall came a house, a pond, a shop and. great big evergreens. I don't know if there is any "How To" book about Timberland, but I was what they call out here an ignorant "Flatlander" and I knew nothing. One of the plus points of rural areas is that it is easy to get informed by chatting with folks. Well, after a year or so I felt secure enough to have some logging done and after a decade during which we did five careful, select cuts I believe I can give accurate data.Timberland is probably the least known investment these days because it is the antitheses of the investment syndrome that we have just had our contest on. It is Loooong term. The optimum harvest cycle is from 60 to 100 years and its only a liquid asset when in that age range. (You can buy and sell young forests, but that's a real estate activity unless you do something like take a trashed parcel and get a new forest established on it) Furthermore being a "Forester", one who owns and manages timber, requires assimilating a lot of data and experience not taught or published as far as I know. That is the first reason that makes it a good investment game. It's Yuppie- proof. Rather then spoiling over time as do most organic commodities, the biomass of timber grows at an average rate of 7%. Simultaneously, after allowing for cyclical averaging, It will also empirically keep pace with price inflation. So, that's inflation plus 7% for starters. Next though, are these facts. While the population of earth grows, increasing the Global demand for timber, The amount of forest land is declining. Also, on a global scale, timber is probably being harvested faster than the overall growth rate. Finally, environmental regulations are increasingly removing more forests, both public and private from the available harvest pool. In Oregon, timberland is taxed only on the underlying land and structure value. The value of the Crop is taxed at the time of harvest; It's called a "Severance Tax." Until you cut it down, your wealth grows tax free both ahead of inflation and biologically.Contemplate the value growth implied by this data, This is not a commodity that is subject to any kind of manipulation other than being locked up by the wealthy and driven higher. (Also, while there are lumber futures, there is nothing like that to pollute the log market) The British financier, Goldschmidt, bought up most of Crown Zellernback and sold huge tracts three years later and tripled his money. He had some help from the economic boom but he didn't have to wheel and deal or depend on cronyism.I imagine your Missouri timber is not the tall Fir, Spruce, Cedar and Hemlock that we have out here, which are milled into structural lumber. You mentioned pallets, and that's what they do with the really bad Alder out here or if the logger leaves it lying on the ground to long and it gets "Redheart" sap discoloration, also our young Alder and gnarly spruce sell by the ton as pulp. The good stuff however, as Saw logs or "Peelers" has been selling from $400/mbf to $850/mbf over the last decade. There is confusion in the fact the board foot price of a log is higher than the commodity quote for finished lumber but that is because a Log is measured (approx.)by the length, times the area of a square the would fit inside the circle of the small end. Probably comes from colonial times when logs were cut into rectangular timbers by men with axes. If a log has a lot of taper there could be twice as much board foot yield in lumber vis a vis the footage paid for.Regarding timber prices as a reflection of the economic boom though, consider this. Sep. Lumber closed today at $231.3, pretty much where it was 20 years ago! The people in the industry say that the Asian crises two years ago seriously hurt the market they had tooled up for and the domestic housing boom is not of a magnitude to offset this. Now pulp for paper and cardboard is up due to Goldilocks and I imagine Palette logs are also. However lumber forests are not at all overvalued at this point in time. BTW a 75 yar old Oregon forest stand planted and thinned to a typical 20 ft. Grid could have a hundred trees yielding 1000 bf which at $300/mbf after logging costs would be $30,000/acreAnother thing is that Timberland, (our kind out here ) is not usually owned for some specific cut and spend activity. It can be "Sat on" especially as it carries (Again, out here) no inventory tax liability.Not to say your analysis isn't correct for your particular location, but I wouldn't want everyone to think it applied across the board. (Pun inadvertent)I see gold as the ultimate wealth insurance, but timber is the quintessential way to build wealth over the long term without being subject to the cruel fiat world out there!I hope I'm being coherent here, it's late and we have to be up for a drive north tomorrow. We're off to see the Wizard! SHIFTY (8/18/2000; 0:16:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35123) (No Subject) I am not against trading goods with other countries around the world. We have had goods from all over the world for as long as we have been a country! We did not need Free Trade for it then did we ? What we haven't had ( till lately under Free Trade NAFTA, GATT, WTO ) is the dumping of goods at or near slave labor wages! Without tariffs the playing field is not level and the country with the higher standard of living will not retain it.Don't we have some trade numbers out tomorrow? Think the USA will have a trade surplus? No, because the people still need to make enough money, to pay for a mortgage, utilities, insurance, taxes,car payment, ect. and will not work for .18 cents an hour. Not without bloodshed.Did we have a surplus in 1966 ? I think we did , but I was in kindergarten that year and it was the last thing on my mind.$hifty Black Blade (8/18/2000; 0:02:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35122) Short-sightness in the Peoples Repulik of Kalifornia, a prelude to recession? http://ogj.pennnet.com/Content/cd_anchor_wire/1,1057,OGJ_7_NEWS_SUB_2572,00.html California Pays Price for Power Bungle Aug. 13--A doubling, even a tripling, of residential electricity bills on the west and east coasts of the US; rolling "brown-outs" across California; Wisconsin mines and Manhattan financial institutions among them Chase Manhattan "voluntarily" surrendering a portion of their electricity at the height of the working week. What's to blame for these disruptions? Unexpectedly strong US economic growth, a heatwave over much of the country and, some would argue, deregulation of the American power grid. Four years into the country's experiment with free-floating electricity prices, things are going badly awry, and nowhere more so than in California. Early this week, governor Grey Davis is expected to sign into law a bill passed last Thursday essentially undoing the deregulation of the power market in San Diego, the first city in the US with decontrolled prices. The law follows the re-introduction earlier in the week of price caps on wholesale electricity and will essentially roll back consumer prices to where they stood in July 1999 just as individual San Diegans begin to receive cheques totalling $390m from the sale of their city's generating capacity. There is no question there is a dire shortage of electrical capacity in California, the result of a 25 percent increase in demand over the past decade. The question is whether deregulation is the cause of the shortfall or its solution, says Ian Sheperdson, chief economist at New York's High Frequency Economics. "There is a real chance of dramatic increases in electricity prices, thanks mostly to the bungled deregulation of the industry," he adds While the public has been quick to blame deregulation for the current spike in prices, most economists argue that capping rates will only discourage newly-entrepreneurial US power companies from building desperately-needed capacity. Before last week, industry officials say California had received applications to build generating plants producing 12,000 megawatts a figure that anticipates a doubling of the demand growth rate the state has experienced since its technology booms began five years ago. "What's wrong with California's deregulation is what is wrong with all half-measures," says one Wall Street energy specialist. "You can't expect supply-and-demand to balance themselves when the demand price is being manipulated." Even so, Wall Street is looking for capacity to catch up with demand somewhere from two to five years ahead. One danger of the crisis is that it will discourage citizens in other states now liberalising their power markets, such as Texas and Ohio. But there is also the real impact that the debacle is having on the broader economy. Economists are already predicting the constraints will be a factor in holding down last month's producer prices, due out this week. The California brown-outs could well hurt the state's key technology businesses, especially semi-conductor manufacturing. The only comparable outage the result of the 1989 earthquake in San Francisco reduced America's GDP by a half-percentage point that October. Certainly the shortages have had a profound impact on the country's utilities, shares in which were being likened just three months ago to the market's "ugly ducklings." Instead industry profits shot up 21 percent in the second quarter, and the sector's shares are now up 17 percent on the year. In addition, analysts predict that the crisis will encourage consolidation of the fragmented industry. Black Blade: There is a measure that could be signed into law that will cap energy costs. Of course, with no new power generation on line and the need to purchase power on the market, that is a self-defeating measure. The free-market will sell the power to the highest bidder, and that leaves the Peoples Repubik of kalifornia one of two options: 1) suffer the indignity that goes with being a third world socialist nation and endure rolling blackouts, or 2) tax the citizenry in the state to subsidize the purchase of power from the free-market. Kalifornians are about to learn first-hand that environmentalism has a price and that they must pay for the aesthetic value of not having power generation plants in their backyard. Kalifornians live in a Fantasy Land where government cures all ills. Now, let me explain how it works in the Real World. Kalifornians generally just whine a lot and eventually steal from their neighbors in Northern Kalifornia. This is how the freaks in Southern Kalifornia do thing. For example: live in a desert? Build aqueducts and steal water from the north (Environment be damned!). Put Northern Kalifornians on water restrictions so that Southern Kalifornians can fill their swimming pools. The same will happen with power as well. Why hell, Southern Kalifornia has over 2/3 of the vote. Democracy in action! (Mob Rule!) It doesn't really matter anyway, as there is about to be a real energy crunch very soon and there won't be any excess power to purchase on the Free-market at any price. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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