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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/18/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

ThaiGold (4/18/2000; 22:44:41MDT - Msg ID:29002)
PATSY Waiting
Attn: Soloman Weaver / #28989
=====================================================
...
4-18-2000
To: Soloman Weaver Re: your #28989

You're right.!. The PATSY index would be more
logical, if weighted for the disparities.
However, since there's nothing Logical about
the PM's (anymore) and Disparity is rampant,
I felt just the base figures would be adequate.

Besides, I hate math.

Your suggestion is well-taken, and if I have time,
I'll try to incorporate some weighting into it
next month. Why NEXT month.?. Because I've already
calculated and filed all the calculations for
this month, in advance. I just wait for each day
session to close, so I can post them to you all.

Weighting. Waiting. We GoldBugs are so patient.

Cordially...
ThaiGold
==================================================

Peter Asher (4/18/2000; 22:41:52MDT - Msg ID:29001)
Thank's Mr. G
I was in need of that "relax pill."

Peter Asher (4/18/2000; 22:38:19MDT - Msg ID:29000)
oldgold (4/18/2000; 21:47:18MDT - Msg ID:28995)

>>>>arrogance and disdain for the financial interests of gold investors that has along been a problem at this site.<<<<

To whom??

>>>>>I for one am not here to get rich quick but to help ascertain when the gold bear might turn into a gold bull. If this site cannot help people in this regard it will be on its way out.<<<<<

By whose act??

Mr Gresham (4/18/2000; 22:34:37MDT - Msg ID:28999)
Wealth
Is there something in the American mind that resists understanding, or even thinking about, the concept of "wealth"?

Everything must be "democratic" -- a spectrum ranging from equal opportunity to equal outcomes. So we don't want to think of wealth, which implies inequality, and worse, static inequality!

A century's brush with socialist idealism has kept many fine people from wisely considering their relationship to wealth, and sharing the resulting thoughts with society, though it has not kept many people of the less-benevolent type from acquiring it. They just learned to speak differently about what they were doing.

A young nation, compared to the others. There's no getting around that. We need to always be on the go, developing the next thing, gambling all on a stock with a "good story".

A lot of what we each hold as our sacred opinion varies with our age and station in life. When I was young, in my twenties, I thought of the older generation as rich and corrupt. I had no concept -- could have had none -- of the experiences they had been through leading them to value wealth. The sense of a door about to close just ahead of them.

When my father was my present age (50) his third and last child left home for college, so the bills were not quite over yet, but he was able to begin planning the final stretch of wealth accumulation leading up to a retirement at 62. His contentment now with having "enough" sets a good example for me.

Unfortunately for me, financially, I have a small child and a modest paying self-employment which are unlikely to permit me anywhere near the accumulation my father succeeded in. And furthermore I am determined to ENJOY this final gift of fatherhood and not blow it in wild-assed money-pursuing schemes. That's three STRIKES in the retirement riches game! So I am going to slide on into 65 or so with a happy child, no money to speak of, and the few gold coins I've managed to buy under y'all's inspiring company!

One good thing about TrailGuide's alerting us to paper investment vs. physical is that I've nearly stopped counting my "wealth" in dollar terms, by which I'll probably never catch up to most in my generation. I've stopped comparing myself to others, to the dot-commers and happy faces on cover of "Money" magazine (which subscription I let lapse). Envy is there, I confess, but at least the numbers don't flicker through my head at night.

I have a happy child, and I am a happy father. I have some gold. I have enough.

ThaiGold (4/18/2000; 22:28:07MDT - Msg ID:28998)
Tuesday's PATSY Index
Down Twice as Much as Yesterday.
====================================================
...
Tuesday's PATSY Report
4-18-2000
To: ALL

The nightly PATSY Index shows the relative
amount that GoldBugs have been conipulated.

XAU=55.72 + POG=280.00 + POS=5.09
-equals-
340.81
Down -2.16 from Monday.

Comment: We've been had again by the BadGuys.
But wait... Your PM ounces remain intact.!. Their
weight and intrinsic value has not changed. Can
anyone wish for anything better than that.?. And
don't forget... we can now buy more ounces of them
with even less of our hard earned fiat currency.

Prediction: More (or less) of the same, tomorrow.

ThaiGold...
Got Some.?. ... Get Some.!.
====================================================

SHIFTY (4/18/2000; 22:01:38MDT - Msg ID:28997)
one more thought
The gold watch still works! The 50 million unfortunately does not!

SHIFTY (4/18/2000; 21:53:44MDT - Msg ID:28996)
Family Values
In reading here tonight, it got me thinking about two items I own that were passed down to me from my great grandad. His GOLD pocket watch and $ 50 million in old German currency, and in one bill! There is a lesson from a man I never met.

oldgold (4/18/2000; 21:47:18MDT - Msg ID:28995)
European CBs and Gold
I still finds the idea that the European CBs will ever do anything significant to help gold and hurt the dollar fanciful to say the least. Not only do they continue to trash gold in a major way (albeit now within certain limits) but they continue to accumulate US dollars at a rapid pace. The dollar index is making new highs even as I write despiter record trade deficits.

The comment by one poster today that people should be here only to find out how the world works and not to get rich quick again shows a kind of arrogance and disdain for the financial interests of gold investors that has along been a problem at this site.

I for one am not here to get rich quick but to help ascertain when the gold bear might turn into a gold bull. If this site cannot help people in this regard it will be on its way out.

tedw (4/18/2000; 21:45:47MDT - Msg ID:28994)
Inalienable rights
http://www.usagold.com

Bonedaddy, Christopher et al.

I fear too many Americans dont value our heritage the way you do.

For example, in California the legislature has stripped the
Citizens of their inalienable,constitutional right to own
semi-automatic rifles. Where is the hue and crie? Where are the courts? Where is the NRA?

Vernon Howard, a 20th Century mystic, said " The Devil is a
Chipper". And he was right.That is how he works: chip, chip,chip away at your rights.

How many National Guardsmen would refuse to obey an order to take away guns from citizens in the event of race riots or civil war? Not too many I dont think.And you might be surprised what a lot of police think about gun rights.Hey, what if the court rules the right to keep and bear arms only applies to the National Guard?

I expect the attempts to take away our rights to continue and progress. As Thomas Jefferson said (paraphrase) it is the nature of man to put up with abuses while they are tolerable.

At any rate, Americans are no longer a free people. I dont
think there is any doubt about that.

Not sure? Look at your tax bill

Econoclast (4/18/2000; 21:38:21MDT - Msg ID:28993)
Trail Guide
I'm anxiously waiting to read your take on this.
Thanks for sharing your wisdom at this Forum.

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 21:15:48MDT - Msg ID:28992)
(No Subject)
Econoclast (4/18/2000; 16:21:46MDT - Msg ID:28954)
Rise above the negativity
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne061898.html

Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 16:36:30MDT - Msg ID:28957)
Econoclast 28954

-------------

Ok, we will all have a look. I'll comment later (or tomorrow)

Trail Guide

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 21:13:25MDT - Msg ID:28991)
Comment
aunuggets (4/18/2000; 18:29:06MDT - Msg ID:28966)
Suppose for a moment you were a Central Bank......
....Would you "sell" your hard assets (gold) for another commodity that you could easily create out of thin air (U.S. Dollars) ? This has probably been mentioned by others, but where is all of this gold being "sold" by the Central Banks ? Is it entering the (private) markets as physical, or is it simply more of the illusion, actually consisting of nothing more than bookkeeping entries from one CB to another ? The "numbers" don't seem to add up for some strange reason.

Hello aunuggets,
That's a real good trail to follow! (smile) I'm with you on that one!

Trail Guide

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 21:11:19MDT - Msg ID:28990)
Comment
Mr Gresham (4/18/2000; 16:38:17MDT - Msg ID:28958)
TG/FOA message

The satisfaction of drawing together a school of independent THINKERS is also sublime beyond most human accomplishments.

-------------------------

Hello Mr. Gresham,

Thanks for your consideration and the same to everyone else who has voiced the same. It's taken a while for me to read all the posts. I know there are more than a few that hold OldGold's position. But, their position and strategy speaks for itself. It will succeed or fail them in the long run. I think if Another were here today he would say "time will prove all things" and leave with that simple, all
consuming thought.

Yet, I can't help but think that your comment about "drawing together thinkers" is indeed part of the plan we see in process here today. While GATA leads with a nuts and bolts attract, Another draws the human spirit and imparts his question in the hearts of real wealth patriots.

I have read that education through experience builds the mind. Once shown what to look for, events become the real experience that creates lasting knowledge and demands the search for more. More often than not wars are won by an army lead from the last in line. Yet only armed with a truth they have found on their own.

"we watch this new gold market together, yes"

Thanks Trail Guide

Solomon Weaver (4/18/2000; 21:07:43MDT - Msg ID:28989)
modification to the patsy
Hey ThaiGold

Whereas the DOW and NASDAQ are in the same order of magnitude....the three variables in the patsy are in almost three separate orders of magnitude....

XAU=56.87 + POG=281.20 + POS=5.10

Might I suggest a weighting to "correct XAU and POS contributions" to POG weighting??

XAU*5 + POG + POS*50 = Patsy (today 820)

Patsy*5/Ponzi should come out to about 1.0 in normal times....

Aristotle (4/18/2000; 20:40:30MDT - Msg ID:28988)
Hi there, Canuck
I saw your (19:37 - Msg ID:28979) ["We need Ari to hand out some relax pills."] Looks like I had one in the works at the time--but I'd say in the process of writing your post you offered a fine pill right then and there.

$5 Indian (4/18/2000; 20:23:26MDT - Msg ID:28987)
Planetary Alignment in May
http://www.dailyreckoning.com
Far out on the planetary alignment theory. What it could do is pull all the traders on the CBOE over to one side of the pit floor, then the guys with kryptonite in their pockets run in and take their place?

No, in all actuality we don't know about the "full moon" theory. It has some effect but which way. Do the longs get spooked and go short? Visa-versa?

Here is my planetery theory. In Psalms it is written "One thousand years is to the LORD as one day". We have 2,000 years from Adam to Abraham, then 2,000 years from Abraham to Christ, then 2,000 to now.........based on our calendar that may be a little bit off as to Jewish years. That is 6,000 years as being 6 GOD-days by Psalms. On the 7th day He rested. That would represent the 1,000 year reign of Christ on earth during the "Sabbath of the earth". It was told in Jeremiah that the Jews were sent into exhile to Babylon for 70 years because that was the number of sabbaths they had ignored to keep while suffering a backslid idolatrious condition from Solomon's sins. So the land was to catch up with its prescribed "rest" before the Jews could return. According to this theory we are right close to the apocalpse. The pope's visit to Israel sparks every prophecy buff to watch it close. When this stuff goes down it is going to fall into place very fast. Satan knows his time is short and he will speed the consolidation up putting the UPC symbol tattoo on the faces of the deceived masses. The last scan could be the buyer or the seller. Owning gold could buy some precious time. The refugees who had no gold may still be back in Vietnam. I don't need Earnest Angelly to spoof me on a phony healing but I'm all for being fed by Angels in the wilderness. "Way out" you say. Not as way out as the history of the Jews. Look at where the wandered in the barrenest areas of the Sinai Peninsula. Where was the water for them all? Miracle times II when Revelations goes down. First 25% of the earth gets effected, reality-light. Then 33%, ups the anti. Then after truth is persecuted away and only liars remain it's a Nazi camp for suburbia global. The antichrist has little power over areas without electricity.
So what about gold? First of all know that the Spirit of Truth beats the machine guns and the cameras and the agents and the backstabbing family members and close relatives who will sell you out in times of famine quicker than a McDonalds drivethrough. My brothers used to ask me how much gold I owned....Pray a prayer of protection over your gold. Surrender it to the Spirit of Truth and to God's Glory. Then the Lord might want you to be steward of it. We won't be messing with any physical power that we can beat. Children filled with truth will live through the nuclear war, the body being just a shell for the soul. "I own physical"............you don't own the hair on your head. Give your gold to God if you want to see it after witchcraft becomes the national religion. A drive for unity without truth VS the believer's drive for truth disregarding man centered unity. Gold reminds me of God but to trust in it is vain.

The 5th Rider is Self Delusion. 2 Thess. 2:11

YGM (4/18/2000; 20:21:01MDT - Msg ID:28986)
Haruko Fakuda comments in Palm Springs.....
USA Gold...
If what she stated is in print, it should be posted on as many Stock and Financial/PMs discussion boards as possible....I feel quite elated to hear the Gold Standard not only mentioned by her, but by Greenspan last week also... YGM

Aristotle (4/18/2000; 20:09:32MDT - Msg ID:28985)
Praise all around for the posts today
This post was a thing of beauty -- Harley Davidson (4/18/2000; 16:34:30MDT - Msg ID:28956)

It's nice to have you here, Harley. Let me add one thought to your closing comment--

"I choose to see the glass as half full and I will continue to take every advantage of today's ridiculous gold prices and acquire as much physical gold as is financially practical for as long as I can. Oh, what's that you say? What if the price doesn't go up for twenty years? My children inherit all of it (tax free I might add). Along with the teaching of values that matter, like integrity and morality, I can't imagine a better, more consistent, more appropriate inheritance from a common man such as myself to his children."

I once faced this line of questioning from a friend who had then only recently diversified a little into Gold, but still hadn't quite come to clear mental terms with the meaning of situation. Knowing that I am Gold through and through, he asked me, "But what if we die with this Gold and it never zooms in price?"

My response was that I asked him "What exactly do you find so distasteful about dying a rich man?" He immediately understood my implication that anyone who still had Gold in his pocket upon his deathbed most certainly didn't die for lack of nourishment or proper attention.

The last time I saw this friend, he was rather proud that he had recently picked up about two more pounds of Gold. That's right folks. Pounds.

IronHead (4/18/2000; 13:03:52MDT - Msg ID:28937), this was another very nice post. In part, you said--
"Looking out the window as I compose this, I see my lovely wife out planting the spring garden. Strawberries in, asparagus in, seeds being sowed, and an aura of total contentment and harmony with her convictions. ... us gold bugs. We plant for a harvest in the future, through the conviction of our "knowing"; not the market, nor the time line, not even the ultimate price yeild. But simply ourselves. For I buy the message of real worth fraught of real labor and love and even death in the effort to produce these fruits.To believe in Microcarp (sp) at 16 times book, with a PE of a zillion to one, and daily capitalization changes greater than the total gross profit of the company, is simply not me. My conviction, no confusion. So to hold the conviction of why I bought, and will continue to accumulate at these firesale prices, gives me no pain."

That fits right in with the theme here, doesn't it? Looks like you and your wife have whipped up the recipe for a storybook life. By the way, my friend that I mentioned ealier is engaged to be married this year. I hope he fares as well as you have.

Primus, you get to be our study in contrast. Today you said, "As I write, CNBC is showing the DOW up 174.81, and the NASDAQ 201.48. This on what happen yesterday. I've reached a point where I want to chuck this computer, turn off the TV, and just spend my time watching my trees grow. With the trees, at least I know if I water and care for them, they will grow. I do not need to run to this computer and read a dozen different pundits on how trees grow. Being single, owning a small ranch, I spend my days enjoying the land."

Good God, man! You have the perfect thing going on and you don't even allow yourself to realize or fully enjoy it. Why should the market capitalization, up or down, have any bearing on your happiness? Do you realize how many hundreds of millions of people are living on this planet scraping out an existence that would seem very meager compared to yours? I rather doubt that our Nasdaq or Dow fluctuations have much bearing on their happiness or misery. And just as surely, there are certainly a small handful of people that are living a "privileged life" of wealth beyond your wildest dreams who also fail to look to our Nasdaq or Dow as their source or cue for happiness. Just as you admitted that the trees don't need pundits to proclaim how they should perform, neither does Gold. They are both natural, so enjoy them in the same context.

You said, "My greatest joy is to close the day with a cup of coffee in hand walking around my property." My friend, I wish I could be there to join you on one of those walks. That is, if I weren't already busy helping IronHead's fair lady with her gardening.

I think I can identify your problem and offer a solution. You said, "The one thing I do know, I have given up the ability to accomplish objectives due to the holding I have placed in physical Gold and Silver." My friend, that tells me that you have too much! In this world, to do something you generally have to leave the house with a wallet stuffed with cash (or a credit card). Other than your enjoyment while on your ranch, if you have denied yourself many of life's offerings because you don't have any walking around money, then for God's sake sell some of your metal (the silver, of course) because you bought more than you should have at this moment. How many people would actually find themselves saying, "The one thing I do know, I have given up the ability to accomplish objectives due to the holding I have placed in my savings account."? Precisely nobody. They would look at their savings as the ENABLER for their pursuit of dreams. And you should see things that way also.

Best regards to you and all.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

YGM (4/18/2000; 20:05:28MDT - Msg ID:28984)
Earlier Post by USA Gold #28926
Most Interesting Indeed!!.....
.....your paragraph below is another chink in the "Black Knights" armour, and a glimpse into the future of Gold & the Fiat System being rethought and reformed......Just imagine the change to the balance sheets of the US Treasury if Gold were revalued on their books as the IMF did.......$35.00 p/oz to $600, or how about $1,000. p/oz....
The US federal debt would look alot more managable.....
-------- But Goldman, and the rest of the "Black Knights" will have run for their holes in the ground, probably well in advace of the hoardes screaming why didn't I buy Gold at $280...... This ramble is just my long held belief in the duplicity of CBs of the world continually helping to fade Gold interest and lending massive amounts while knowing full well it's being returned to them or an ally by virtue of sale by the borrower and thereby helping those involved to buy cheaply before the so called great Reckoning we all know is coming!.....Thanks for making my day w/ your post, Host!..........YGM.
........................................................................
(You Said)
Most interesting is a revelation by World Gold Council CEO Haruko Fukuda that "some countries" are in
discussions with the International Monetary Fund to change the ban on linking currencies to gold. One wonders
which countries those might be with Euroland immediately popping to mind. The euro already boasts a gold
component to its reserves as a further boost to the fledging currency. After all, it is only in England and the United
States that gold fear and loathing inhabits the institutional and bureaucratic mind. In most of the rest world there is
no need for gold to regain its place in the official mindset; it never left. The logical step would be to apply fractional
convertibility. But why would Euroland need IMF approval to move forward? Just do it and drive another nail in that
dying international institution's coffin.

SHIFTY (4/18/2000; 20:05:24MDT - Msg ID:28983)
NY Ponzi
Nasdaq 3793.57 + Dow 10767.42 = 14560.99 Devide by 2 =NY PONZI 7280.495 Up 219.66 ponzi points

Bonedaddy (4/18/2000; 20:01:00MDT - Msg ID:28982)
It's very frustrating at "times."
For many years I have held to the belief that people in western civiliztion make a glaring error when interpreting their present circumstances. We fail to realize the times in which we live. I think it must be the fast pace at which we attempt to live life here. The very young and the very old see things with much more clarity than we who are caught up in the fray. Solomon counseled that there was a time to every purpose under heaven. "A time to get and a time to lose, a time to keep and a time to cast away."- Ecc. 3-6.
Are we living in a time to lose? Has a time come for us to cast away certain things? What then shall we keep?

When we lose the proper perspective, we don't know why we are living. Frustration sets in. What is the meaning of my life, we ask? All seems so meaning-less.

We are the richest people who have ever lived on the earth. Even Solomon, wealthy beyond belief, could not avail himself of modern medicine or automobiles or a trip to the supermarket. We have freedom! We have health! We have riches! Yet, we are so poor.

I choose not to participate in the current market mania. I feel no loss. I will buy GOLD and store it away. Perhaps it will serve me in the course of my life, perhaps it will not. But as for me, I think it is "time to gather stones together."

PH in LA (4/18/2000; 19:57:28MDT - Msg ID:28981)
PS. Please include in last post.
Oldgold:

Sorry... I was going to point out that LaRouche is the only professionally trained economist to aspire to world leadership. He has been saying for some time that we are on the fast track to disaster. For a while, I was convinced that FOA was in his camp, their comments are so similar.

Also forgot to mention James Cooke, whose point of view could be interchanged with FOA's without most of us noticing the difference.

Yours truly,

PH in LA

PH in LA (4/18/2000; 19:50:53MDT - Msg ID:28980)
(No Subject)

"One big problem I have with trail Guide is that no other gold analyst in the world -- bull or bear -- accepts his premises. The idea that this lone individual knows hidden secrets that no one else does is implausible to say the least." Oldgold...etc.

What a flight of hyperbole! Oldgold.

To assert that "...no other gold analyst... etc..." Really, now. Do you actually pretend to be up on ALL of them...? In the entire world? Wouldn't want to retract that? Now, while you have the chance, would you?

(Dramatic pause!!!)

No? Then please check out Reginald Howe at: www.goldensextant.com. Sometime when you are taking a break from reading every "gold analyst in the world -- bull or bear".

Also, Lyndon LaRouche.

OK, OK... I know... He has been thoroughly discredited by the powers that be... especially that paragon, George Bush, Esq. Yeah, the same Mr. Ex-CIA Director, Out-of-the-Loop, Iran Contra, Hear-No-Evil... See-No-Evil... You know who I mean... I mean, I believe everything HE ever said, don't you?

"Read my Lips... No new taxes"?

Yeah, THAT George Bush!

I'll stop now. Sorry, everyone.

Canuck (4/18/2000; 19:37:36MDT - Msg ID:28979)
Relax pills
We need Ari to hand out some relax pills.

Here's everything I know in a nutshell.

I bought a sizeable stake in physical ranging from $260 to $300 and today it's at $280; that's a break even in my books.

I'm playing dope freak with my retirement money in buying a big stake in Ballard Friday and letting it loose this afternoon. Hell, (since the TSE300 and CNDX are following Nasdaq) I'll play the game, the market gave me a mittful. Now I have a cushion of 16% to 'watch trees grow' and watch my gold shine. I can sit on the 16% and let Nasdaq sweat.

What am I saying?

I've been listening for a year and a half to people moan and groan. If you are not happy with gold, get out, it really is that simple.

We have been ranting and raving for a stock breakdown; it just happened. The 'lid' for Nasdaq is 5,000; we saw it. My
Canuck friends saw the TSE at 10,000 and CNDX at 4,500. Do
you think we'll blow these highs, I can't see it; the numbers just don't support it, IMHO.

We have been ranting and raving for inflation; it's upon us now.

Oil is now firmly at mid-twenties, 10 bucks will never be seen again. Watch oil my friends, oil is the KEY, the GOLDEN KEY.

I will flirt with 'Nasdaq' and techies and I may loose and I don't even care. My HEDGE sits, not making a dime, and I don't care because WHEN the train comes off the track I will have worthless stock and fistfuls of power with a P/E
of infinity to 1.

Are you in or are you out?

Ari, this round is on me!!

R Powell (4/18/2000; 19:36:21MDT - Msg ID:28978)
oldgold: Re hyperinflation only after wartime defeat
The world is full of U.S. dollars. Many countries accept them more readily than their own currency. Others hold U.S. government debt. It only seems to return in the form of equity market investment if at all. All this while the dollar remains strong and the markets profitable.
What would happen if the markets showed weakness and the dollar's value trended lower? Foreign invested dollars leave the market and the country, and then return as payment for "real" goods and/or services. This while our trade deficit is outrageous. Follow this with the return of paper debt held overseas, cashed out for dollars, and returned to buy anything west of Kansas City thats for sale.
Think of this happening while prices are inflating here as they have been even though the government does not admit so. They lower the CPI with deceptions such as "quality enhancement" adjustments and "core" rates implying that people no longer consume petroleum products or eat.
Or, if you believe stock prices as judged by P/E ratios have become inflated, imagine all that monetary power leaving a sinking market and looking for a new home. I'm not predicting hyperinflation but I can't agree that it's possible only after wartime defeats. Twenty dollars for a loaf of bread? Lets hope not but who knows.

White Hills (4/18/2000; 19:29:02MDT - Msg ID:28977)
Dollar Hyper Inflation
In Msg ID:17, FOA refers at the end of the coming Hyper Inflation of the Dollar. As just a ordinary guy I would like to ask the forum for comments on how this inflation would effect the ordinary guy with no real savings and a payday to payday existence. Would it just mean raises in the price of things? What about debts? Could banks call in loans secured by property? I recall in the Movie, Roll Over that when the Arabs pulled all of their money out of US Bonds prices went hyper but then so did wages. Is there anything that the ordinary guy can do to prepare for the coming fall of the Dollar?

Elwood (4/18/2000; 19:24:57MDT - Msg ID:28976)
oldgold (4/18/2000; 17:43:47MDT - Msg ID:28962)
"One big problem I have with trail Guide is that no other gold analyst in the word -- bull or bear -- accepts his premises. The idea that this lone individual knows hidden secrets that no one else does is implausible to say the least."

Are you sure that no other analyst in the world accepts his premises? I personally know others elsewhere who accept this. It's true that many of "western thought" (thanks to ANOTHER for that term) do not believe in TG's scenario.

"The idea that the US is headed for hyperinflation is so far out that I cannot believe even Trail Guide takes it seriously. Major powers historically only suffer hyperinflation after major wartime defeats. And the US -- as the world's only superpower -- is hardly likley to suffer a major military defeat within our lifetimes."

In the 1780's it was the winner of the American Revolution who was blessed with hyper-inflation. During the Civil War both combatants experienced hyper-inflation. Is it loss through war or is it an overburdened monetary/debt system in general that leads to hyper-inflation? You might find an answer in the history books of China.

"This is not to say that inflation will not pick up considerably in the years ahead. But hyperinflation in the US -- the very idea is absurd."

I believe the dollar has already been hyper-inflated. We merely haven't seen the inevitable effects of this to date.

"The idea that the Europeans will make a bid to dethrone the dollar alos is very implusible. When the US says jump -- most of these guys say -- "how high". The European CBS are the ones selling and leasing gold and driving its price into the ground. Could it possibly be that they are doing so at the behest of the US?"

The Europeans' bid to dethrone the dollar is happening right now before our very eyes. Reference the Euro.

"The Washington Agreement did cap European gold leasing, but at a very high level. Can one imagine what gold and gold
shares would do if the European CBs announced they would start to PROGRESSIVELY REDUCE gold leasing -- say by
10-20% a year. This is what gold activists should be aiming for -- repeating over and over how bad Goldman Sachs is will
not do us any good. THE SUPPLY OF CHEAP LEASED GOLD MUST BE CUT IF A GENUINE AND SUSTAINED GOLD BULL IS TO EVER DEVELOP."

Leased gold is not gold. It is paper. European CBs (other than UK) are no longer selling their physical gold into the market. They are selling to other central banks. This will be more obvious when the Swiss announce the details of their sales. The thrust of TG's argument is that the real value of gold has been disconnected from its paper price. Those who engage in paper transactions just don't realize it yet.

This happened before during the late 20's when our monetary authorities engaged in this kind of excessive monetary expansion. The result was a run on America's physical gold which the Fed attempted to stop by slamming on the brakes in 1930-31.

It occurred again in 1965-71 forcing Nixon to default on gold payments to foreign governments. Nixon's action was a direct response to a request by the UK to convert up to $3 billion. Britain's request was precipitated by the nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry on July 31, 1971.

What does our current dollar monetary system have to do with gold? Officially, nothing. Unofficially, much more than we think, in my opinion because, regardless of how much our appointed officials deny it, to the world gold is still money.

MarkeTalk (4/18/2000; 19:12:19MDT - Msg ID:28975)
Random Events or Synergy?
Some people say that there is no such thing as coincidence--that what appears as random is really a well-orchestrated piece of a larger puzzle. I have been mulling over various conversations that I have had with clients here at Centennial and have put together a list of events which, in the big scheme of things, are all connected. And there is a certain energy or synergy that accompanies them. So here is the list.

April 19/20th appears to be a key time frame in world/political events. To wit: 7-year anniversary of the Waco tragedy; 1-year anniversary of the Columbine school shooting; 5-year anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing; anniversary of Adolf Hitler's birthday; the last day when the Swiss people can block by referendum the sale of 1300 tonnes of the gold that has backed a percentage of their currency. April 19/20th is also the beginning of Passover. The next day is Good Friday followed by Easter Sunday on April 23rd. Then on May 1st we have May Day which is occultic in origin (second most holy day in the occult next to Halloween) and which is also celebrated as the key day in Communism ideology. Then finally, we have the planetary alignment on May 5th when all of the planets line up in a row. Apparently this has not happened in 6000 years.

Taking all of these pieces as a whole, I would say that we are in for a whole lot of shaking--economically (lower stocks and higher inflation), politically, environmentally (both weather and potential terrorist acts) and perhaps spiritually. The events of the past two weeks show the nervousness of the investing public when it comes to stocks. I just really sense that the shift has begun and will pick up speed as we head into summer. How long before John Q. Public decides it is time to buy a little gold?

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 19:11:02MDT - Msg ID:28974)
Comment
PH in LA (4/18/2000; 10:58:39MDT - Msg ID:28932)
Evolution! Coming to a gold market near you!

Hello again PH!

Thank you for your clarity! But more so for showing that yourself and others are seeing through the fog. I can present only "so much" because my human inability to describe this evolution is so limited. Truly, the more that others can see these changes and write their perceptions the more we all can gain perspective.

Thanks again

Trail Guide

Hill Billy Mitchell (4/18/2000; 18:44:18MDT - Msg ID:28973)
Official release
http://bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 18, 2000

Rates for Monday, April 17,2000

Federal funds 6.18

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.82
10-year 6.01
20-year 6.26
30-year 5.19

R Powell (4/18/2000; 18:38:50MDT - Msg ID:28972)
Ross L
Your question, "Are you reading this forum for a way to get rich quick, or do you want to learn how the world really works?" Answer Yes!

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 18:38:32MDT - Msg ID:28971)
Comment
da2g (4/18/2000; 9:13:22MDT - Msg ID:28928)
in the future (75/15,000), perhaps I am better off keeping some of my wealth in cheeseburgers
(very large smile).

da2g,
Ha! Ha! I wondered if anyone would catch that? At that evolving ratio burgers would be sold for oil, I'm sure! (smile)

thanks Trail Guide

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 18:36:44MDT - Msg ID:28970)
Reply
Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 7:44:54MDT - Msg ID:28923)
Hello Trail Guide
Is Trail Guide/FOA more than one person?

Hello Cavan Man,

No, I'm the two of them. Because FOA interprets, transcribes and publicly represents the thoughts of another poster, I found myself unable to express (and defend) my own position when attacked or challenged. It's a cultural gulf that's different from what we know in a lot of Western social
interaction. Here I post as Trail Guide so as to still tie my personal feelings to those presented on the Gold Trail, but write as I see fit.

Another seldom writes "outright". Most of his Thoughts (I'd say more than 3/4) are transcribed. He's a long term thinker / planer / leader and has every intent on seeing this "new gold market" through to the end. Many people think his whole presentation is winding down because he has withdrawn for a while. I can assure you the last few years were only an "outcry" of what is to come. When events lead the way, FOA will fade to the background as Another's Thoughts again
take the stage. At least this time, I'll be able to continue posting here as Trail Guide (smile).

Thanks Trail Guide

TownCrier (4/18/2000; 18:35:51MDT - Msg ID:28969)
Imagine yourself living in Turkey and trying to achieve meaningful savings
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_turkey.html
Although the steepness of the line will vary, someday this is what all currency graphs will look like versus gold. As was mentioned in an earlier post regarding 1923 Germany, do you think the goal of the average person was to accumulate ever more currency?

Let this be your guide...

"Gold imports into Turkey surged to 52.5 tonnes during the first quarter of this year, up 219 percent from 16.4 tonnes for the same period of 1999."

Thus endeth the lesson.

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 18:34:54MDT - Msg ID:28968)
Comment
ss of nep (4/18/2000; 7:26:20MDT - Msg ID:28921)
comment
I may have to learn to ride a camel
smile.

------------

Ha! Ha! Hello ss of nep,

I hope you have some success because those damn things are hard to ride. For this American anyway! (smile)

You are right, we do seem to be more free with our military these days. It just feels like we are slipping into the same old "pre inflation" society values that are responsible for "war attitudes" in the past. Our Economic engine pulls all of us into it's high speed printing press whirl and we end up demanding the head of any peoples (or nation) that slows it down. I see moral values at the very edge of the same old "I demand mine now" and "to hell with the outcome" thinking. It more profitable to trade it than own it! Didn't Robert Precter detail some of this in his last book?

Anyway, good luck when your first ride comes!(smile)

Trail Guide

Henri (4/18/2000; 18:32:43MDT - Msg ID:28967)
oldgold
I agrre with you whole heartedly on the last paragraph of your latest post about it being cheaply leased CB gold that the "hannibals" are using to work their "magic". Yes I think even Bill is coming into this line of thinking as well.

However, it has occurred to me that it may also suit the European CB's strategy that gold "paper" have the lead in establishing the price of physical for this period of shuffling, accumulation and consolidation. See that by your own words you have acknowleged that the European Central Banks are now in complete control of the situation and are in fact holding the detonator. (Lease level reductions). Isn't that where you would want to be while accumulating and redistributing gold assets about your domain before you made your play to offer the reserve alternative? Holding the detonator so to speak? It has the strange feel of a pair of vulnerable testicles wouldn't you say?

Does not the mere exchange of physical gold at these "low" prices not legitamize the concept that gold is now worth more than $42 an ounce? Remember for every sale there is a buyer. The glass IS half full, no?

If I were coming into this discussion today or even recently and had not yet read the "Thoughts" by Another. I might even give your position a moment of consideration. Fact is the predictions made by Another in those posts (see archives) written years ago have come to fruition and right on the predicted schedule. That in itself gives the Another/FOA thread credence head and shoulders above the rest.

I think you will find that we are not on different sides of the valley.

But I still think we could trade water for oil even up.

aunuggets (4/18/2000; 18:29:06MDT - Msg ID:28966)
Suppose for a moment you were a Central Bank......
....Would you "sell" your hard assets (gold) for another commodity that you could easily create out of thin air (U.S. Dollars) ? This has probably been mentioned by others, but where is all of this gold being "sold" by the Central Banks ? Is it entering the (private) markets as physical, or is it simply more of the illusion, actually consisting of nothing more than bookkeeping entries from one CB to another ? The "numbers" don't seem to add up for some strange reason.

Hummmmmmmmm ?

$5 Indian (4/18/2000; 17:56:43MDT - Msg ID:28965)
market rap
http://www.usagold.com
Primus and others:

Into technical analysis of POG and/or paper gold/silver related futures indicators. E-mail me and don't trifle with the tide.

I'm good friends with 4Ducat and sometimes Quicksilver writes me too.

gazelle333@hotmail.com

RossL (4/18/2000; 17:46:36MDT - Msg ID:28964)
Aristotle

I'm still trying to figure out how the world really works. I'll let you know what I find out. Sorry, I would have gotten back to you sooner with this informative tip, but I was out buying a lotto ticket. <grin>

oldgold (4/18/2000; 17:43:50MDT - Msg ID:28963)
Forecasts
One big problem I have with trail Guide is that no other gold analyst in the word -- bull or bear -- accepts his premises. The idea that this lone individual knows hidden secrets that no one else does is implausible to say the least.

The idea that the US is headed for hyperinflation is so far out that I cannot believe even Trail Guide takes it seriously. Major powers historically only suffer hyperinflation after major wartime defeats. And the US -- as the world's only superpower -- is hardly likley to suffer a major military defeat within our lifetimes.

This is not to say that inflation will not pick up considerably in the years ahead. But hyperinflation in the US -- the very idea is absurd.

The idea that the Europeans will make a bid to dethrone the dollar alos is very implusible. When the US says jump -- most of these guys say -- "how high". The European CBS are the ones selling and leasing gold and driving its price into the ground. Could it possibly be that they are doing so at the behest of the US?

I do fault GATA for focusing too closely on Goldman Sachs. Bad as they are the root of the problem is the cheap gold from CBs (mainly European) flooding into the market. Goldman Sachs and its fellow "Hannibals could never do what they are doing without dirt cheap leased gold from the European CBs.

The Washington Agreement did cap European gold leasing, but at a very high level. Can one imagine what gold and gold shares would do if the European CBs announced they would start to PROGRESSIVELY REDUCE gold leasing -- say by 10-20% a year. This is what gold activists should be aiming for -- repeating over and over how bad Goldman Sachs is will not do us any good. THE SUPPLY OF CHEAP LEASED GOLD MUST BE CUT IF A GENUINE AND SUSTAINED GOLD BULL IS TO EVER DEVELOP.

oldgold (4/18/2000; 17:43:47MDT - Msg ID:28962)
Forecasts
One big problem I have with trail Guide is that no other gold analyst in the word -- bull or bear -- accepts his premises. The idea that this lone individual knows hidden secrets that no one else does is implausible to say the least.

The idea that the US is headed for hyperinflation is so far out that I cannot believe even Trail Guide takes it seriously. Major powers historically only suffer hyperinflation after major wartime defeats. And the US -- as the world's only superpower -- is hardly likley to suffer a major military defeat within our lifetimes.

This is not to say that inflation will not pick up considerably in the years ahead. But hyperinflation in the US -- the very idea is absurd.

The idea that the Europeans will make a bid to dethrone the dollar alos is very implusible. When the US says jump -- most of these guys say -- "how high". The European CBS are the ones selling and leasing gold and driving its price into the ground. Could it possibly be that they are doing so at the behest of the US?

I do fault GATA for focusing too closely on Goldman Sachs. Bad as they are the root of the problem is the cheap gold from CBs (mainly European) flooding into the market. Goldman Sachs and its fellow "Hannibals could never do what they are doing without dirt cheap leased gold from the European CBs.

The Washington Agreement did cap European gold leasing, but at a very high level. Can one imagine what gold and gold shares would do if the European CBs announced they would start to PROGRESSIVELY REDUCE gold leasing -- say by 10-20% a year. This is what gold activists should be aiming for -- repeating over and over how bad Goldman Sachs is will not do us any good. THE SUPPLY OF CHEAP LEASED GOLD MUST BE CUT IF A GENUINE AND SUSTAINED GOLD BULL IS TO EVER DEVELOP.

Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 17:27:20MDT - Msg ID:28961)
Mr. Gresham
Couldn't one say the period of dollar creation that threatens the current sanctity of the USD regime goes back more than five years?

That was one fantastic post. Congrats...CM

TownCrier (4/18/2000; 17:23:06MDT - Msg ID:28960)
The Week in Gold has been updated! ...Gold Demand remains UP!
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html
For those of you that might yet doubt that others in this wide world are capitalizing on physical gold acquisition at these paper-based prices as we mentioned in our previous post from The Tower, please doubt no longer. I refer you to these excerpts from the World Gold Council's Weekly Gold Market Commentary released today.

"Gold imports into Turkey surged to 52.5 tonnes during the first quarter of this year, up 219 per cent from 16.4 tonnes for the same period of 1999. Increasing investment demand in the local market, expectations of a good tourist season and good prospects for higher jewellery exports were cited as the main reasons behind this jump."
+
"In Taiwan, imports of gold bars and coins in March rose 19.44 per cent to 9.572 tonnes from 8.014 tonnes a year earlier. For the first quarter, gold imports totalled 23.921 tonnes, 33.25 per cent up from 17.951 tonnes for the same period in 1999."

And is this evidence that the prevailing paper-based gold markets are falling out of favor?

"The LBMA reported that London's net gold clearing statistics fell during March as trading ranges narrowed and volatility declined from February's levels. The number of ounces transferred fell 19% to a daily average of 24.2 million ounces (752.7 tonnes), which is the second lowest level on record."

What is more, the Swiss will likely forsake these conventional markets or UK-style open auctions, with the most likely gold allocation scenario to follow the Dutch model via the BIS.

"The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced on Wednesday that, as expected, it will start its programme of gold sales in early May. These sales, which are governed by the Washington Agreement on Gold, are planned to reach a total of about 1,300 tonnes. The SNB said the method of sale would be announced nearer the time, but the Swiss sales are thought unlikely to involve auctions as is the case with the UK's current programme. The Finance Ministry said that the SNB would co-ordinate the sales closely with other European central banks."

These might all seem as tiny pebbles, but the keen eye may yet detect the impending avalanche. Build your financial house on a solid foundation.

Elwood (4/18/2000; 16:54:18MDT - Msg ID:28959)
Sir Harley Davidson

Sir, you are wrong. A common man, you are not.

Mr Gresham (4/18/2000; 16:38:17MDT - Msg ID:28958)
TG/FOA message
Just sneaking a late work-day peek at the forum before a more leisurely (ha!) reading tonight.

RE: oldgold

As Cavan Man said: "The TG/FOA message is about a sea change in the international monetary system as we know it. "

If you read about the past such changes they always came as a shock to the populace at large. They were kept under wraps, sprung as surprise, and trapped most people with most of their assets vulnerable to "theft" by one means or another. SECRECY is ESSENTIAL to such "sea changes".

Just the possibility that we "common folk" are being let in on advance views of such changes is exhilarating, and oldgold wants to warn us that they are illusory and cultish. I know the attraction to "insider" information, and I know the pessimism that he wants to share with us, possibly for our own good. That we have that weakness for an "insider's" perspective does not make that viewpoint false. Only that, as in all things, we must be suspicious of ourselves and not become our own worst enemy, as in "A fool and his money..."

FOA isn't selling anything and he certainly isn't profiting from our walks together. He sounds to me like he is drawing satisfaction from the sharing of a lifetime of knowledge, something I hope to do in years ahead. The satisfaction of drawing together a school of independent THINKERS is also sublime beyond most human accomplishments.

The only truth that can be said about TG/FOA's "prophecies" is that they are about the type of thing that is kept secret until it happens. Thus, any proof will only be available after it happens, when preparation is no longer possible. It's pretty much an all-or-nothing deal.

So, you -- each of us -- have to figure your own risk/reward. What's the upside? What's the downside? The math looks pretty convincing to me: GET PHYSICAL.

Besides, the hikes with him are fun! Reminds me of a favorite economics professor (with a beautiful Scottish accent) I never let myself spend enough time with. Now the sheer indulgence in learning is compensation enough for quite a period of market "stagnation".

Taking the long view. Learning from European financial pros with centuries of tradition and, hopefully, wisdom. Learning from "giants" (whoever they may be.) Thinking of wealth as something possible in our future. Growing out of our little American childish instant gratification game and growing up as investors.

To repeat (and hopefully not bore): This is the type of situation that could POP to the upside all at once. It certainly ain't gonna pop downward anymore. A steady rise would be a fine alternative, too. A level price for a few yars? OK -- what if stocks, bonds, drop 20% and stay there? Tell me a better alternative "investment" to hedge an inflated money supply of the past five years?

Damn! Gotta go pick up the kid -- that's probably my rant for the week.

Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 16:36:30MDT - Msg ID:28957)
Econoclast 28954
Sir Trail Guide if you please....
In the context of your general discussion of how the world works and is working, would you be kind enough to view the referenced link by Sir Econoclast and give us your opinion. This would be a fresh topic would it not??

A reference was made today at another (no pun) site regarding a secret hoard of US gold somewhere in the western US (probably Centennial Precious Metals Executive water closet) :):). Could US accumulation be a fact? It woudl be a good DEFENSE would it not?

Thanks...CM

Harley Davidson (4/18/2000; 16:34:30MDT - Msg ID:28956)
(No Subject)
I believe it was the apostle Paul who said "In all circumstances, I have learned to be content." I think he was imprisoned at the time and awaiting trial and probable execution. My my my, what a lesson for living for all those who have shared lately, their depression, whining, anger, disappointment, and resentment on the various gold forums. To all of you I say, something significant is missing in your lives and getting rich is not going to fill the gap or make you happy. You are distracted by the stock market and the gold market and that distraction is sucking the life out of you.

Truly, this is a case of the glass being half empty or half full as is applied in cognitive therapy. I can say "damn, the price of gold dropped (for what ever reason) and my plans for greater riches aren't coming to fruition" or I can say "Hmm, I can afford to buy more gold than I expected because of the recent price drop. Interesting." For you psychology students out there you know that which of the above you choose to say/feel/believe will determine your emotional state of mind and, consequently, your behavior.

I'll go even further and ask you to honestly examine yourselves regarding your innermost motives regarding your behavior which I find to be totally inappropriate for this noble forum. If you look hard enough and are honest enough, you'll find that which is so apparent...it is greed! It ain't pretty but it comes to the surface quickly and it sure is obvious and there is nothing noble about it! I can't help you with it, rather it is something you're going to have to resolve on your own...if you choose to do so.

As for me, while I find it all very entertaining, I don't really care what the stock market does, what the euro does, or what the price of gold does...simply because I can't control any of it! Perhaps it is the realization that there is very little we can control that gets one on the right path of life.

I choose to see the glass as half full and I will continue to take every advantage of today's ridiculous gold prices and acquire as much physical gold as is financially practical for as long as I can. Oh, what's that you say? What if the price doesn't go up for twenty years? My children inherit all of it (tax free I might add). Along with the teaching of values that matter, like integrity and morality, I can't imagine a better, more consistent, more appropriate inheritance from a common man such as myself to his children.

Aristotle (4/18/2000; 16:28:48MDT - Msg ID:28955)
RossL, can you spare a minute?
I'd like a hot tip on how the world really works.
;-)

aunuggets (4/18/2000; 14:19:06MDT - Msg ID:28942) --Great post! Keep 'em comin'

Chrusos, what you've said so well here is the point I was implying at the end of the third paragraph in my previous post:
"...gold shares as I understand it is that governments - in a scenario of enormous gold price escalation, dollar meltdown and currency wars - might just be ever so slightly tempted to tax gold shareholder revenues (of course, purely windfall and comming from national treasure chests from their perspective.)"

Nice work, chief. And further on that, we can all gain sume perspective in the realization that a potential for nationalization of mines would occur not because the government has its eye on the currency it could make as a result (they do that already), but because of the value represented by the metal itself.

Mining companies would do well to adopt this same perspective of their product. Fundamentally, with paper Gold markets on the wayside, there is no reason mining companies shouldn't be able to support themselves on the basis of their product--selling it as needed to cover expenses or to disperse profits. (Though personally, if I owned a Gold mining company that paid dividends, I would rather receive those dividends directly as a metal allocation to a Gold pool maintained by the company. But then, that would make too much sense.)

Gold. Make you some. ---Arostotle

Econoclast (4/18/2000; 16:21:46MDT - Msg ID:28954)
Rise above the negativity
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne061898.html
I would be interested in reading what Trail Guide (or anyone else with an informed opinion) thinks of the hypothesis put forward in this link.
It gives a whole new perspective to the manipulation of Gold.

Hudson (4/18/2000; 16:20:21MDT - Msg ID:28953)
Ross L (#28952)
Ross L says
"So everybody here needs to ask them themselves a question. Are you reading this forum for a way to get rich quick, or do you want to learn how the world really works?"

Good point.
This statement should be taken as a wake-up call to many, especially myself, and I know for a fact that there are countless other people who think like me in this respect, so they should think hard about it too.
Of course, many of the posters here already have, but I am sure some lurkers could take note...

RossL (4/18/2000; 16:03:27MDT - Msg ID:28952)
Why?

Today's discussion reminded me of something Jesse Livermore said in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". It's been a while since I read it, so this may not be paraphrased perfectly.

Jesse commented that after he became famous on Wall Street, people always asked him for a hot tip to make a quick buck. This struck Jesse the wrong way, because when he was inexperienced, he learned quickly that hot tips were wrong 50% of the time. What he wanted was to learn the ropes from experienced traders, not a hot tip. Jesse concluded this is one of the reasons why the masses are always wrong. People want to be told what to do and will throw money at a investment they know nothing about, instead of doing work and research.

So everybody here needs to ask them themselves a question. Are you reading this forum for a way to get rich quick, or do you want to learn how the world really works?

Farfel (4/18/2000; 15:55:22MDT - Msg ID:28951)
Lenny Kaplan Unhappy With Me? Oh, I hope not!
Apparently, I've upset LFG Bullion's Lenny Kaplan.

Somebody said that I posted malicious comments about him, as per the following post:
------------------------------------------
Farfel (4/17/2000; 18:09:03MDT - Msg ID:28876)
A Trader Speaks Out, and I Respond....
A trader wrote on another forum:

"Many of the people who post at _______ are looking for something to "believe" or they are trying to get others to believe what they do.

Those of us who are looking for something to trade and do not feel that "believing" in anything is necessary for trading are looked upon as monsters or worse.

I have noticed a trend in the USA and here at ______ of people trying to severely HURT someone just because they don't agree with them or don't like what they think. They try to cost them their wealth, their job, their friends and their freedom ( by false accusations or by framing them in some manner ) . People worry about hate crimes and persecution because of hatred yet I see those same people spew hatred at people just because they disagree about what is money or what is fair or not fair in business and government.

If we really do have a great crash and the wealth of the average person disappears I fear a blood bath as people give their hatred free reign......

Freedom of speech and tolerance of another's beliefs are a bad joke in America today."

---------

I find the sentiments expressed by this trader to be singularly baffling.

He makes an impassioned cry for tolerance and asks that those who trade without beliefs be looked upon with understanding and without prejudice.

Unfortunately, that type of mentality is the root cause of the moral breakdown in this country. Momentum trading and making money for the sole sake of making money, without goal or without purpose or any conception of morality, is the reason the country is beset by hatred and rage. How strange that this trader cannot see that! A life based solely on materialism cannot be ultimately satisfying.

A trader's universe is singularly and entirely immoral. A pure trader who does not give a damn what his product is or where he invests his money does not realize that every time he makes an investment, he is voting for or against a certain condition in the world.

If I choose to invest in child pornography, then even if I only hold the investment for a day, I make a vote as to what kind of society I want.

If I choose to invest in a defense company, I make a vote as to whether or not I wish to have somebody's arms blown off or not.

Etc., etc.

So when a pure trader appears and demands tolerance and understanding for his spiritless activity, I am sorry but I will not give you one scintilla of that.

If you do not make a moral choice, then I will let you have it in no uncertain terms, and to hell with so-called freedom of speech or freedom of choice.

Because freedom unfettered leads to tyranny of the human spirit. Too much freedom is as bad as too little freedom, one oppresses as much as the other.

Thanks

F*
-----------

However, I wish to make it clear that this post was NOT intended to imply the man is a dirty rotten pedophile, I would NEVER make such a claim. NEVER!!

The preceding was aimed at another man's comments about the glories of trading for the sake of trading, that is all.

Thanks

F*

PH in LA (4/18/2000; 15:54:49MDT - Msg ID:28950)
Advice for "cult leaders"
"...frankly I am not a fan of Trail Guide either. (His) obvious contempt for gold stock investors rubs me the wrong way. He seems to be implying that gold stock investors are getting their just"reward"". oldgold (4/18/2000; 13:27:18MDT - Msg ID:28939)

Dear Oldgold,
Please correct us if you have not been more closely associated with one G. C. Cole than with Mr. Tzadeak?

As you point out, FOA/Trail Guide/Big Trader/Another has always been strictly an advocate of unleveraged physical holdings rather than stocks of any kind. This should cause you no discomfort, unless you truly believe that the "messenger should be liable for the content of his message" as in bygone imperial times. That you seem unable to let go of your love of gold stocks in the face of FOA's disaproval is your choice, and does not in any way reflect on the good intentions of FOA. A more noble way to react on your part, would be to bring us your reasons for continueing to value gold stocks, speaking to FOA's arguments rather than voicing a general distaste for him. His reasoning has been carefully laid out here for all to see. If you are at all unaware of it, you should direct yourself to the archives.

At the same time, you, yourself point out that part of your dislike of the messenger is that "he writes as if he and he alone is aware of an impending sea change in the gold market". Yet all here know that FOA has continously pointed us to many other seers who have been offering the same message, including Reginald Howe, World Gold Council, Michael Kossares, GATA, etc. In addition to being flat out incorrect, yours is a thoroughly childish attitude to take towards FOA. Between the lines, your point of view calls out for some special recognition for yourself, even as you disregard that your identity as "oldgold" leaves out all the content of a George C. Cole's identity as newsletter editor and expert who might have spent a lifetime acumulating fame and respect for past analysis. FOA/Another has carefully shielded us from any such clouding of his message by steadfastly refusing to identify himself. In the format he has chosen, this only adds even more weight to his words, although it utterly fails to capitalize on any success his analysis might eventually have... a completely unambitious modus operendi for an aspiring "cult leader". FOA/Another's motives have caused much speculation since their first appearance at Kitco. The only motive that reamins undisputed is a desire for knowledge, and at the same time, to make truth known.

If any of this this indeed "sort of reminds (you) of cult leaders who proclaim a special vision of the future which almost always turns out to be bogus", you are certainly encouraged to follow your own path, without regard for FOA's guidance. You, yourself will reap your own benefit or loss for your decision. In the meantime, here at this forum (as opposed to some of the others) we, especially including FOA, concern ourselves with reason, content and valid argument directed strictly towards the message, which is hardly the tactic of a cult leader looking for a following.

If that is in any way your own dream, which your offence at this mistaken interpretation of FOA/Another's motives causes one to suspect, you will find very little sympathy here at this forum.

Jack (4/18/2000; 15:26:43MDT - Msg ID:28949)
Thanks! (@[aunuggets, IronHead, $5 Indian, HI-HAT, ...])
YES, these were exactly the ideas that I was looking for. This is a great forum to learn from, indeed.

Aristotle (4/18/2000; 15:13:18MDT - Msg ID:28948)
Hey oldgold, what crawled up YOUR portfolio and died?
As evidenced by some of your posts today, your thinking seems to be a bit clouded. Though far be it from me to do your thinking for you, I can't refrain from offering you a few thoughts.

Your comments about Trail Guide are completely without substance. Completely. I should leave it at that, but I won't.

I have followed his thoughts for as long as he has been sharing them on the internet and have found them to be singularly unimpeachable. Further, unlike your own perception, I do not detect any element of contempt in Trail Guides words for ANY faction participating in this grand financial/monetary evolution. If I have ever seen an expression of contempt, it is for those who fail to conduct themselves in a courteous manner when exchanging words on this subject matter. If you see contempt, perhaps it is because you are donning that garment of your own self-incrimination and then see its reflection in the virtual edifice of Trail Guide's thoughts. So if Trail Guide holds no contempt for the actors that are providing us with low purchase prices for Gold, why would he suddenly have contempt for those who are throwing themselves on the spears of bad investments...such as corporate goldmine investment might reveal itself to be as events unfold in a presciently forecasted scenario where a reserve currency loses its status and the paper gold contract marketplace comes unglued?

Further, he does not come across as imploring others to "follow me and you will be wealthy beyond your wildest dreams." On the contrary, he firmly encourages others to consider his words and to do their own thinking. Not surprisingly, some people are better at it than others--no offense intended. Where you say, "GATA -- unlike Trail Guide -- is trying to DO something for gold and gold stock investors," you just don't get it, do you? There are innumerable ways to "make currency"--and perhaps the efforts of GATA will somehow bring various corporate goldmining investments into the black. But there is only one way to "make the currency of the ages" --that is to say, to "make Gold." As millions of others on this planet know, fiat currencies don't retain their vigor forever, and "making Gold" requires regular and timely exchanges while your currency holds its value. The alternative is to either EARN the Gold directly in payment for services rendered (NOT going to happen in a modern world on any grand scale), or else to FIND the preciously rare Gold directly as the miners do. I submit to you and to all others, while the paper Gold market price discovery reigns supreme (as superbly described in Townie's latest post), it is much easier to "make Gold" by buying it with currency than by mining for it. After all, any old fool can "make currency."

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Chrusos (4/18/2000; 15:09:49MDT - Msg ID:28947)
oldgold
Old gold please do not discourage your gold brothers this is the same as people who mock the efforts of Bill Murphy � we all have our roles to play. Also you do your fellow students of this university a disfavor by inferring we are lemmings. All gold supporters must unite especially in apparently dark times.

Trail Guide brings a truly unique and challenging perspective to events that I am sure is preposterous heresy to paper gold aficionados and lovers of the Dollar Empire (on which the sun will never set!)

I have watched paper gold players like myself (yes I also sometimes take our national lottery tickets as well) go from giddy euphoria to deep misery and disillusionment. The same rollercoaster of emotions applies for gold shareowners.

I post from South Africa where there are a few crazy demented old prophets many who dream of the golden heydays of our country and currency. We even have a number of closet goldbugs among the financial journalist community who try and stick up for gold in an obtuse way.

But we are all cast into the slough of despond when newspapers front pages have quotes that gold is no longer a safe refuge etc.

Strangely for our Kruger holdings we don't suffer the same symptoms � maybe the coins emit a strange constant comforting golden glow of promise. This emanation is a proven antidote to goldphrenia (closely related to techphrenia) the condition of becoming morbidly depressed and full of dark paranoia of immense conspiracies when hopes of making huge paper profits evaporate.

I have carefully attended professor TG's (FOA) lectures for a number of semesters (nearly 2 years) and am an unashamed fan. His position on gold shares as I understand it is that governments - in a scenario of enormous gold price escalation, dollar meltdown and currency wars - might just be ever so slightly tempted to tax gold shareholder revenues (of course, purely windfall and comming from national treasure chests from their perspective).

TG I relish your walks in the mountains �they are some of the most stimulating on the whole gold debate on the web. They leave my mind spinning with possibilities and I sleep soundly. I am glad you have your own site then brother gold bugs who like the alpine air can go there and others who dislike the munitions under no obligation to join the pretty grueling hikes you take us on.

Old gold the Lord Jesus said, "he who is not against us is for us" so let's not get personal against fellow goldbugs theories � there are so few of us at this time anyway.

Chrusos � holder of physical, dabbler in shares and options

Chrusos (4/18/2000; 15:09:05MDT - Msg ID:28946)
oldgold
Old gold please do not discourage your gold brothers this is the same as people who mock the efforts of Bill Murphy � we all have our roles to play. Also you do your fellow students of this university a disfavor by inferring we are lemmings. All gold supporters must unite especially in apparently dark times.

Trail Guide brings a truly unique and challenging perspective to events that I am sure is preposterous heresy to paper gold aficionados and lovers of the Dollar Empire (on which the sun will never set!)

I have watched paper gold players like myself (yes I also sometimes take our national lottery tickets as well) go from giddy euphoria to deep misery and disillusionment. The same rollercoaster of emotions applies for gold shareowners.

I post from South Africa where there are a few crazy demented old prophets many who dream of the golden heydays of our country and currency. We even have a number of closet goldbugs among the financial journalist community who try and stick up for gold in an obtuse way.

But we are all cast into the slough of despond when newspapers front pages have quotes that gold is no longer a safe refuge etc.

Strangely for our Kruger holdings we don't suffer the same symptoms � maybe the coins emit a strange constant comforting golden glow of promise. This emanation is a proven antidote to goldphrenia (closely related to techphrenia) the condition of becoming morbidly depressed and full of dark paranoia of immense conspiracies when hopes of making huge paper profits evaporate.

I have carefully attended professor TG's (FOA) lectures for a number of semesters (nearly 2 years) and am an unashamed fan. His position on gold shares as I understand it is that governments - in a scenario of enormous gold price escalation, dollar meltdown and currency wars - might just be ever so slightly tempted to tax gold shareholder revenues (of course, purely windfall and comming from national treasure chests from their perspective).

TG I relish your walks in the mountains �they are some of the most stimulating on the whole gold debate on the web. They leave my mind spinning with possibilities and I sleep soundly. I am glad you have your own site then brother gold bugs who like the alpine air can go there and others who dislike the munitions under no obligation to join the pretty grueling hikes you take us on.

Old gold the Lord Jesus said, "he who is not against us is for us" so let's not get personal against fellow goldbugs theories � there are so few of us at this time anyway.

Chrusos � holder of physical, dabbler in shares and options

Farfel (4/18/2000; 15:07:07MDT - Msg ID:28945)
Why Barrick is NOT worth a piece of Toilet Paper....
``One of the things as an industry I don't think we've
been terribly good at is marketing our product. We
pour a piece of bullion and often from a producer
point of view that is where it ends,'' John
Carrington, vice chairman and chief operating officer
of Barrick Gold Corp(Toronto:ABX.TO - news) told
Reuters.

--------

When a major executive of a major senior gold producer (that pretends to be a gold bull) comes out with an idiotic statement like the preceding, then it is all I can do from barfing all over my shoes.

Several years of the most dismal gold market, after numerous gold producer bankruptcies....after many shareholder protests against gold producer inaction to promote their primary asset... after endless GATA pleas to these lamebrains to do something to bring transparency to the gold market and support a REAL gold lobby group...this Barrick-bird-brained idiot, this moron piss-brained executive, steps forward and declares he thinks that maybe it is time to promote their product differently?????

Is it any wonder shareholders have had enough of these sub-retarded jackasses?

When your proxies arrive in the mail, VOTE AGAINST all gold producer managements...Vote AGAINST all gold producer proposals...send these nitwits a message in no uncertain terms for the upcoming gold producers' annual meetings.

Thanks

F*

Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 15:03:20MDT - Msg ID:28944)
oldgold
The TG/FOA message is about a sea change in the international monetary system as we know it. Gold's rise in price will be a bi-product of unfolding world monetary events. Certainly, the counsel given could be construed as investment advice because, if you part with dollar wealth by subscribing it to another form, you expect a return on your subscription along with the original sum.

As the world turns slowly it covers a lot of ground. I am delighted to have an insightful perspective on current monetary events as they unfold for the case for gold is entirely MONETARY.

Consider....

TITLE: International Monetary Infrastructure Evolving
SUB-TITLE: Gold To Play Customary Role In New System

The faithful are asking for a sign. I say keep the faith. It could be a long wait still.

Good afternoon.....CM

Elwood (4/18/2000; 15:01:55MDT - Msg ID:28943)
oldgold (4/18/2000; 13:27:18MDT - Msg ID:28939)

"GATA -- unlike Trail Guide -- is trying to DO something for gold and gold stock investors."

TG's posting here IS doing something for gold and gold stock investors. We all have our way. His reasoning seems sound to me on most points.

Are you saying that you disagree with his thinking that our monetary system will change in the near future? I'm more interested in hearing your reasoning rather than the name-calling.

Let's hear your views, and we'll let future events decide who is correct. What is your "frank talk"?

aunuggets (4/18/2000; 14:19:06MDT - Msg ID:28942)
Jack
Jack,

There are many "forms" of physical gold, but those offering the most "bang for the buck" tend to be the full one ounce coins, particularly the more popular or well known pieces such as the Krugerrands, Maple Leafs, and American Eagles. These are continually the "most liquid" and offer the lowest premiums over other "numismatic" or less often traded coins, bars, etc. While there may be some slight price advantage up front with gold bullion bars in 10 ounce and larger sizes, many of these generally require assaying when sold which ultimately increases the "cost" of such forms of gold. Also, as the size of the coin decreases (1/2, 1/4, 1/10 ounce etc.), the per-piece premium naturally rises as a matter of increased "production cost" of striking more pieces per ounce of metal. While the smaller coins may be better suited to "bartering" in extreme circumstances, for simply buying and holding, the full one ounce coins would seem to offer the "best of both worlds" as far as low premiums and liquidity. However, in this recent market, it is sometimes possible to buy the smaller coins at or near the same premium levels (per oz.) as the full one ounce coins. In this case, I would tend to go with the smaller pieces simply for the sake of taking advantage (later) of the rising premiums of such coins as the price of gold itself increases. In an "up market", the premium spread of the smaller coins almost always returns with the increase in the POG. Hope this helps.......

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Others:

Having read most of the postings here over the past many months, and the general consensus of the "need" or "desire" of a higher POG, it makes me wonder if some are simply missing the forest for the trees. Those of us who have accumulated our shares may see some immediate "paper profits" in such a rise in the POG, while others of us still in the "accumulation phase" would do well to continue buying at current (or even lower) levels. Do we really look at gold as a "wealth means" to a "paper end" ? Isn't that what we are trying to avoid in the first place, i.e. the fiat/paper markets ?

How many of us would rush to buy any consumable today if we knew that tomorrow the price would be 2 or 3 times todays price, able to make a large paper (cash) profit in the process ? And once those items were sold, how many of us would immediately be wishing again for "lower prices" ?

Too many of us are putting physical gold into the category of a (physical) means to a (paper) end, when in fact the gold itself should be viewed as "a present ends to future means", or a way of taking our wealth with us through our lifetimes without worry of government taxation, inflation, ad nauseum. Do we simply "buy" gold as an "investment", to be "sold" for dollars, or is it the gold that we will use as the ultimate means of exchange at some time in the future ?

A couple of days back, the topic was brought up as how to illustrate or convince others (family members ?) of the merits of physical gold ownership. Try taking a bit of wadded up newspaper, a piece of wadded up copy paper, a piece of wadded up toilet paper, and a dollar bill and laying them side-by-side. At the end of the row of paper, place a one ounce American Gold Eagle (or other gold coin), and watch the expression on the face of the other person without having to say a word yourself. Any thinking person will fully understand..........

R Powell (4/18/2000; 13:55:25MDT - Msg ID:28941)
Oldgold
Mr. oldgold, I don't think any will disagree with you that the bullion banks have shorted gold for a long time and made a fortune doing so. Gold shares and POG have both suffered as have many involved with mining or precious metals in any way (other than the shorting). I, for one, will also agree that no one knows for certain when POG will rise but I believe many among us have a much greater understanding of the fundamentals and manipulations of both the gold market and gold as wealth (as opposed to paper currency) than many so called financial experts.
In defense of Trail Guide, I don't ever remember him "predicting when" POG will rise. He does state only that it will and the search and challenge,if you will, is attempting to examine all information and opinions available to us towards this end. Weather one's motive in this is to defend freedom, restore the gold standard, oppose market manipulation, make money with the rising POG, or all of these doesn't change the game. If gold stricks you as just a money making investment then I would submit that no other market (other than perhaps silver) has as much potential as the gold market. This is a direct result of the tremendous shorting (manipulation) that you so correctly lament.

TownCrier (4/18/2000; 13:52:58MDT - Msg ID:28940)
I don't want to protract this topic, but...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=U.S.%20Economy&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_government&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AOPupqhSBVS5TLiBB
HEADLINE: U.S. Approves Arms for Taiwan

From Bloomberg:
"Under the Clinton administration's decision, Taiwan will
receive three Raytheon Co. missiles -- the Amraam medium-range
air-to-air missile, a new heat-seeking, anti-ship version of the
Maverick air-to-ground missile and the Javelin anti-tank missile
co-produced with Lockheed Martin Corp., said the defense
official. The exact quantities and prices will be worked out
later."
---------------
Rather hard to fathom that this could be the same company of wolves (with all due respect to wolves) that would endeavor to take away its own citizens pea shooters.

Back to Gold...

My, what short memories we all have. Yesterday and Friday there seemed to be alot of angst expressed here that the price of gold was not reacting more strongly in light of last week's stock market selloff.

It seemed that these same people lost sight of the mechanism through which gold is priced. The "highly visible" paper gold market is the means for price discovery...spot prices then being derived from futures markets based on mathematical adjustments for the time-value of the funds involved, both currency and metal.

First of all, in the midst of a gut-wrenching stock market selloff, how many people instinctively say, "Golly, Francis, this seems like a good time to start playing the futures markets, too."

And even if they DID decide to play the futures at such a time and thereby put pressure on the buying side of gold contracts, how difficult to you really think it would be for those intitutions with vested interest in price restraint to offer up whatever additional gold contracts are adequate to keep the price at bay?

Don't let yourself be deceived by price performance of paper gold. Physical gold demand by the world as tracked by WGC statistics continues unabated at record pace. You can be sure that those individuals who acquire and know the true value of gold metal continue to see the paper gold market as a sublime gift for as long as it endures.

I'm glad to see many posters coming back around to the proper evaluation in their comments today. Truly, past times and observation have revealed the paper gold traders to be sacrificing themselves and their available funds for the benefit of us physical gold advocates that eagerly accept the metal under the paper gold traders' terms of contract price discovery.

And we thank you.

oldgold (4/18/2000; 13:27:18MDT - Msg ID:28939)
Andy Smith and Trail Guide
Let me say I am no fan of Andy Smith -- the bullion bank propogandist. But he has been right about gold these past few years. Probably because the gold shorts have enormous support from the financial powers that be.

But frankly I am not a fan of Trail Guide either. He writes as if he and he alone is aware of an impending sea change in the gold market This sort of reminds me of cult leaders who proclaim a special vision of the future which almost always turns out to be bogus.

Trail Guide's obvious contempt for gold stock investors also rubs me the wrong way. He seems to be implying that gold stock investors are getting their just "reward". Farfel that is something you should think about having lost so much in gold stocks. I have not noticed a similar contemt for tech stocks investors. Apparently they are entitled to their huge gains, but it is sinful for gold stock investor to hope for a decent return on their holdings.

GATA -- unlike Trail Guide -- is trying to DO something for gold and gold stock investors. We need many more people like Bill Murphy. What we do not need are cult like figures who say in effect -- "follow me and you will some day be rich beyind your wildest dreams when the current system collapses".

Trial Guide or Pied Piper of Hamlen. We shall see which is the better description.

I am sorry if my words offend some. But frank talk is needed if gold investors are ever to get their just rewards.

Farfel (4/18/2000; 13:19:02MDT - Msg ID:28938)
Stock Market Disaster Looming, A MUST READ
This is the most significant news item of the day:

Bank One Profits Sink 40 PercentUpdated 1:55 PM ET April 18, By DAVE CARPENTER, AP Business Writer

CHICAGO (AP) - Bank One Corp. saw first-quarter earnings plummet by 40 percent as fallout from serious problems with its credit-card unit continued to erode profits at the nation's fourth-largest bank.

"Bank One blamed its weak performance on a falloff in credit-card business, more bad loans and an operating loss for its Internet-only bank WingspanBank.com.
Credit-card profits sank to $70 million from $303 million, with credit quality worsening - nonperforming assets increased by $31 million to $1.19 billion. Card loans declined by 3 percent from the same period in 1999."

--------------------------------------
For those who may not know, Bank One has been the most aggressive credit card issuer in America this past decade (via FIRST USA credit cards), providing huge lines of credit ($25,000 and up) to almost any jackass who has a pulse.

No doubt most of those people have been putting most of these credit card advances into the stock market, I know, I've met quite a few of them along the way.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and default is simply enormous.

As a result, Bank One is cutting off credit to tens of thousands of people now, and that in effect represents a RAISING of the indirect margin requirements for stock market investors.

As I noted in a previous post, today's average aggressive investor is likely as margined as the average investor back in 1929, all through INDIRECT margin, via house mortgages and credit card advances.

It is one of Wall Street's great lies that a 50/50 margin requirement at brokerage houses prevents overleveraging on the part of today's consumer. Absolutely not true.

In reality, via these indirect margin vehicles, they have never been more margined, and now the firms (like Bank One) who made all this credit available are closing down the loans in a most dramatic way.

Thanks

F*

IronHead (4/18/2000; 13:03:52MDT - Msg ID:28937)
Jack- Conviction or Confusion?
Know Thyself: Simple words for sure, but when confused, words
I repeat often.

As I read today's thoughts and feelings here, I sense Deja-Vu of the millenium turnover, as many here felt cheated of an opportunity lost. Looking out the window as I compose this, I see my lovely wife out planting the spring garden. Strawberries in, asparagus in, seeds being sowed, and an aura of total contentment and harmony with her convictions. We live in a moderate mountain environment at about 3000 ft., so the possibility of a late sring freeze is all too real. Happened last year in the latter part of May. It really dissapointed my wife as this was her first attempt at planting a garden in her life.She persevered, jumped back in and we ate millenium pasta on the eve of 2000 with her homemade sauce of her garden fresh veggies.

Pretty simple story (I think in terribly simple terms), however in my eyes, very analagous to the plight of us gold bugs. We plant for a harvest in the future, through the conviction of our "knowing"; not the market, nor the time line, not even the ultimate price yeild. But simply ourselves. For I buy the message of real worth fraught of real labor and love and even death in the effort to produce these fruits.To believe in Microcarp (sp) at 16 times book, with a PE of a zillion to one, and daily capitalization changes greater than the total gross profit of the company, is simply not me. My conviction, no confusion.

So to hold the conviction of why I bought, and will continue to accumulate at these firesale prices, gives me no pain. It is to you Jack (new poster and gardner of today) that I say these words, such that you might avoid the confusion that can kill from within.

Salutation and Welcome!
IronHead

Goldmak (4/18/2000; 12:33:44MDT - Msg ID:28936)
"old gold"
It appears to me at least, that in your statements you combine both gold physical and gold shares.
I would agree that gold shares,{ especially south africans
gold shares} are down; today some sa mines are down 10%. I guess todays wall street journal article on Zimbabwe
violence suggesting it could spread, might be one reason.

But gold physical is in fact up from it's low of 252,
last year.

Also, are you Tzadeak.

Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 11:59:03MDT - Msg ID:28935)
To oldgold
Take a look around sir. The new paradigms abound do they not? Why not a paradigm shift in the gold market?

I believe you are speaking of gold the commodity and gold the tool of opposing political wills. You are speaking of gold in a classic "investment context". Our friend speaks of gold the wealth asset it truly has always been.

This evolution of the gold market had to happen sooner or later. I believe as do others here the trail's end is near and I am glad for my timing.

Disclaimer: My timing is always awful!

Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 11:21:04MDT - Msg ID:28934)
PH and Farfel and "oldgold"
PH/Farfel:What they said and goes double for me.

oldgold: I give you the benefit of the doubt and of course, your opinions. You must be new around these parts. IMHO, your thinking on the subject is old indeed. Clear out those cobwebs; forget what you think you know. Consider another scenario (There's that word again).

Primus (4/18/2000; 11:20:12MDT - Msg ID:28933)
@ oldgold
Oldgold

Reading your post, I could not agree with you more. You have said what I have been thinking for sometime. As I write, CNBC is showing the DOW up 174.81, and the NASDAQ 201.48. This on what happen yesterday. I've reached a point where I want to chuck this computer, turn off the TV, and just spend my time watching my trees grow. With the trees, at least I know if I water and care for them, they will grow. I do not need to run to this computer and read a dozen different pundits on how trees grow. Being single, owning a small ranch, I spend my days enjoying the land. My greatest joy is to close the day with a cup of coffee in hand walking around my property. My little "trail" thinking about the writings of Trail Guide.

I can not count the number of cups of coffee and cigarettes consumed trying to digest his words. He is profound in his thoughts, I can't agree or disagree with his words, I just don't know. The one thing I do know, I have given up the ability to accomplish objectives due to the holding I have placed in physical Gold and Silver. The shinny metal just sets, one day up a dollar, the next down dollars, the only direction seems to be down. Maybe Gold is dead, or as you said, "we" will be dead before we can reap the gains we are all looking for. Should I "bail" now I will loose, big time. Like most of the members of this forum, we are trapped. Few will admit it but the facts remain the same. Like the stock brokers selling stocks, the bullion dealers are the ones who realize the gains. Yes, MK is the host of this forum and I appreciate that fact. However, should this site disappear tomorrow, a new one will open up. Such is the way of the Internet.

I believe the events of Sunday night were the straw that broke my "will". Even Trail Guide jumped in. Monday looked bleak for the markets, I watched the markets open in Asia forward; RED all RED. It was hard to sleep, asking myself, "Could today be the day?" We all know what happen. Now, today: markets up, Gold down. Yes, maybe it is time to let the metals just set, doing the thing it does so well, collect dust, and attend to my trees, and get on with life. My postponed trip(s) to the Philippines is quickly moving center stage.

Vent Off�

Primus

PH in LA (4/18/2000; 10:58:39MDT - Msg ID:28932)
Evolution! Coming to a gold market near you!

"We have a big problem here. What you are saying about gold being the ultimate store and standard of value is directly opposite (to) what the bullion banks say." oldgold (4/18/2000; 8:47:40MDT - Msg ID:28925)

Oldgold: Well said! You have clearly expressed a main topic of discussion here on this board which has been ongoing since even before the very inception of the board itself. On the basis of this remark alone, you would merit nomination as standardbearer for the traditional, financial industry-inspired gold futures pricing structure and mechanism that we, as holders of physical are intent upon distancing ourselves (and our assets) from.

As we "watch this gold market together" we witness a remarkable process. Anyone with leveraged holdings (even including physical) sees their investment shrivelling before their eyes as the relentless "control" of the artificial, financial industry's creation, the futures-dominated, so-called "gold market" winds the price of gold ever tighter and tighter. Many in the gold community are crying fowl and aledging conspiracy, manipulation and outright corruption.

Perhaps!

Equally plausible may be that our modern, computer-enabled system of derivative-dominated price discovery has reduced the volitility of earlier supply/demand based systems. In either case, the result for leveraged investors has been the same: The legalized pillage of their investments.

Now, as you say, "all this may indeed change someday. But I (you) submit that neither you (FOA) or anybody else knows when. Perhaps after all on this thread are dead and buried." Many of us here suspect that it might indeed be sooner rather than later. However, this difference of opinion in no way validates your incendiary remark that "clearly one of you is either lying or does not know what he is talking about." The merest suggestion of lying or ignorance is offensive to all here when levelled at FOA. Deception, if not outright lying is stock-in-trade for the financial industry and is the very basis of our modern financial system (whose defacto commander-in-chief, Alan Greenspan professes to not even know what money actually is... as per his recent congressional testimony).

Indeed, as you point out, the possibility of a correction upwards in the POG under the current system becomes more unthinkable with every passing day to you, Another, FOA and investors in general. For, "if indeed contract gold rises $10, $30 or $80 and pulls in some of the stock crowd, that same "fast mentality" will surely run away at the first sign of more official paper gold creation." Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 7:00:01MDT - Msg ID:28918). Indeed, the whole system of derivative-dominated price discovery would probably implode in defaults and bankruptcys, should POG move substantially upwards, something that knowledgeable big-money investors are most likely well aware of. Truly a no-win situation. In a word, this is what has propelled gold (as a modern investment) into its present status as a non-investment... a mere commodity, inferior even to pork bellies, heating oil and/or orange juice, etc.

Such a system cannot endure forever. As more and more investors discover its absurdity, it cannot help but change. FOA's writings show in great detail that the next stage in our evolving modern financial system will include a logical and comprehensible place for the eternal value of gold.

Thank you, FOA!

Farfel (4/18/2000; 10:50:14MDT - Msg ID:28931)
OLD GOLD, You are schizophrenic
Today you appear on this forum bashing gold and extolling the sharp perceptions of gold bear propagandist and chronic liar Andy Smith (winner of the '99 Marty Armstrong Full of Shit Award).

Only a few days ago, you were lauding gold and speaking its praises.

You seem to have the mentality of a trader, with no rooted beliefs in anything other than that which makes you profit.

That is fine although you will be doomed to frustration until you firmly believe in one thing or another. Anyway I think KITCO is where you should post with all the other traders. You will be much happier there especially since today most of them are celebrating "Bash Gold Day."

Thanks

F*

$5 Indian (4/18/2000; 10:05:19MDT - Msg ID:28930)
Jack, R. Powell
http://www.usagold.com

Greetings in gold, Jack.

Welcome to the great precious metals thinktank. Best bang for the buck? I'd have to say the 10 ounce silver bars from Johnson Matthey or Englehard. But then try to buy 10 at a time. If silver ever runs up to what it's scarcity warrants, then a 10 oz. bar can be exchanged for goods and kind or for cash by the average Joe. The 100 oz. bars are a little too bulky to be carrying around for trade. I get silver rounds before silver dollars because when silver goes way up the people start talking about .999 and the coin silver is .900.
Best to buy through the mail and get a locked-in price with a confirmation number, it's quite safe.

============================================================

R. Powell and others,

If you ever want to exchange Trader Gold Bug market strategy ideas, feel free to E-mail me at: gazelle333@hotmail.com

This is a great physical gold forum and we should strive to keep it that way. I only want to comment on the markets as they relate to the POG. As gold takes off there will be governments wanting to nationalize the mines they can control. International mining corporations could face serious breakup problems due to political instabilities. The shares are more of a gamblers table than so solid and sound as physical precious metal ownership. Good day in gold to all.

===========================================================

Confiscation..........The confiscation of 1933 was brought on because European banks back then were aggressively accumulating and hoarding gold certificates. When they turned them in for redemption, FDR didn't have enough gold to make good on them so he was forced to collect the gold from citizens. It was a national pillage of the citizenry. Without the bearer gold notes to press the current supply of gold demanded upon the Treasury, I don't see why they would be forced to confiscate. Greed? Sure if they get so greedy then they can confiscate but then that would prove that they fear private gold buying and that could create bigger problems......paranoia...... and the guns and ammo getting burried in oily rags. Not nice.

$5 Indian (4/18/2000; 9:46:36MDT - Msg ID:28929)
-
http://www.usagold.com
Seems like some one is selling alot of gold at 9:30 in NY everyday. Comments?

da2g (4/18/2000; 9:13:22MDT - Msg ID:28928)
reply
Many thanks to those of you who thoughtfully responded to my original post yesterday (and cheeseburger dilemma).

Trail Guide:

If today's cheeseburger will purchase .0036 ounces of gold (1/280), but will purchase .005 ounces in the future (75/15,000), perhaps I am better off keeping some of my wealth in cheeseburgers (very large smile).

ss of nep (4/18/2000; 8:55:56MDT - Msg ID:28927)
@ oldgold
You Said:
"What you are saying about gold being the ultimate store and standard of value is directly opposite what the bullion banks say"

- - - - -

My response:

This then IS the Hegelian Dialectic at work, with respect to Au.

USAGOLD (4/18/2000; 8:47:45MDT - Msg ID:28926)
Today's Report: Mainstream Gold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
4/18/00 Indications
�Current
�Change
Gold June Comex
283.10
-1.10
Silver May Comex
5.16
+0.02
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
96~06
-0~17
Dollar Index June NYBOT
106.33
+0.41

Market Report (4/18/00): So far it's been one of those non-descript days in the gold market devoid of news and
determined direction -- up or down -- but there were some interesting statements coming out of the Gold and Silver
Institute meeting in Palm Springs.

Most interesting is a revelation by World Gold Council CEO Haruko Fukuda that "some countries" are in
discussions with the International Monetary Fund to change the ban on linking currencies to gold. One wonders
which countries those might be with Euroland immediately popping to mind. The euro already boasts a gold
component to its reserves as a further boost to the fledging currency. After all, it is only in England and the United
States that gold fear and loathing inhabits the institutional and bureaucratic mind. In most of the rest world there is
no need for gold to regain its place in the official mindset; it never left. The logical step would be to apply fractional
convertibility. But why would Euroland need IMF approval to move forward? Just do it and drive another nail in that
dying international institution's coffin.

Michael Clark from Fidelitrade makes the point that during the run-up to Y2K fears of the banking system breaking
down and hedging with gold was not confined to "zealots and extremists," but, in fact, had become "mainstream."
We would like to express agreement with Mr. Clark's assessment. Here at Centennial we have rarely encountered
"zealotry", but more a seasoned concern from your typical physician, hardware store owner, plumber and /or
high-tech entrepenuer with respect to hanging onto his or her savings (and an informed and healthy concern about
the national financial condition). The "zealotry" nonsense is a fiction of the mainstream press. When you find out
that the extremist hedging with gold is really "the extremist next door," you realize in a flash that the mainstream
press has an anti-gold agenda. Then you begin to search for the reasons why. Our hats off to Mr. Clark, who
formerly headed up the Wilmington Trust Co. gold operation, for attempting to address a sore subject among gold
owners and put the press on the right track (not that they would succumb to such a real-life observation). I would
say that "zealotry" and "extremist" more closely describes your typical stock investor these days. After all where
would you put the sticker, "The Madness of Crowds" -- on the gold investor or your typical mutual fund owner?
(My apologies to any offended parties in advance.)

Please note the two point drop in the long bond over the past two days. It could be signaling something. While
American fund managers are pumping money into Wall Street, foreigners may be pulling it out -- something which
is showing up readily in the bond market but masked in stocks. That could spell more trouble for the stock market
perhaps later in the week and/or going into next week. This rally looks like its skating on thin ice, my fellow
goldmeisters.

That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the events affecting
the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and
down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large
segment of the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click link above and make the appropriate entries.

oldgold (4/18/2000; 8:47:40MDT - Msg ID:28925)
trail Guide
We have a big problem here. What you are saying about gold being the ultimate store and standard of value is directly opposite what the bullion banks say. People like Andy Smith have said over and over that gold is being demonetized and on its way out as a financial asset. You say just the opposite. Clearly one of you is either lying or does not know what he is talking about.

The fact is that people who have followed Andy Smith and shorted gold have made big bucks while people long gold have been massacred -- even those holding just the physical.

Now all this may indeed change someday. But I submit that neither you or anybody else knows when. Perhaps after all on this thread are dead and buried. But so far Andy Smith is batting 1000 anf you are averaging zero.

BTW, my prediction of new lows for gold stock indexes today are coming true unfortunately.

Henri (4/18/2000; 8:05:44MDT - Msg ID:28924)
Of cheeseburgers and oil
Sometimes the wavelengths are incredibly synchronous. The night before the first cheeseburger Post...No kidding...I dreamt that I was at a fast food joint and looking at the menu board at $25.75 for a burger. In my dream I walked away. 6 billion people on this planet live with an effective income of less than $2 (US). How many of us feel that we could be happy at this income level? There is something to be said for home baked bread and steamed rice with beans. Joy is to be found in places many of us have never looked. My dreams are scarey sometimes. But less scarey than a $75 cheeseburger. perhaps the chees was an extra $50 vs. 50 cents...I didn't get that far down the menu.

I had a vision later of supertankers making their way to the ME loaded with "Water" returning from the ME with oil in a straight barter transaction. duh? Value is relative barter is not commerce. What good doth gold to either region? A store of value as ageless as the earth itself. Surely they cannot bottle the Rhine or the Seine or the Thames or even the Schulkyl (nicknamed the sure-kill in these parts). I say the Amazon holds more promise.

Cavan Man (4/18/2000; 7:44:54MDT - Msg ID:28923)
Hello Trail Guide
Is Trail Guide/FOA more than one person?

Christopher (4/18/2000; 7:42:50MDT - Msg ID:28922)
old gold, tedw, et.al
Good Morning Gentlemen,

As I drove in to work it struck me that this was going to be a great day. It just feels good, and now, fortified with my daily readings here on this wonderful forum, I am prepared to help make it that way. But first, I would like to throw my few cents worth into the discussions that have been raging recently

Old Gold speaking to your msg#28896, TG beat me to it this morning when he stated at the end of his most recent post that Gold is not an investment for those of us who frequent this particular outpost. I am not buying Gold to sell tomorrow and receive the same worthless piece of paper that I traded for it. I am buying with the intention of trading my fiat for the "wealth of Kings" if you will, before this fiat is valued only in the terms of other paper products readily available in our local grocery stores.

To tedw. We owe it to our forefathers to remember that we do not derive our rights, 2nd amendment, or any other so stated from the Constitution. These rights are "Self-Evident" whether they are on paper or only spoken. They cannot take that which you will not give. I will not give. "They" may take my Gold as soon as they take my rifle, but "They" will only take my rifle one round at a time, or not at all. I shall not relinquish that which was purchased by the blood of my fathers so easily.

HI-Hat 28905 In response to your post let me say Hear! Hear!

Bonedaddy 28915- I couldn't have said it better. There are many, I believe, that when THE time comes, here in the South, will just fade into the forest quietly, and become ghosts that even the SEALS will fear to go in search of, if they(SEALS) do choose to fight on the dark side and against their coutrymen. I hope to have sufficient courage to be one of them. The time has surely come, again, for all good men to come to the aid of their country.

Gentlemen, to our work.

ss of nep (4/18/2000; 7:26:20MDT - Msg ID:28921)
comment

I may have to learn to ride a camel

smile.

ss of nep (4/18/2000; 7:24:15MDT - Msg ID:28920)
@ Trail Guide
You Said:
"...If someone drops the dollar or the IMF we will ..."
- - - - -
My response: ie continuation of the statement is

Bomb them into submission.

- - - - -

Now the war may not last long, and there may not be much remaining afterward.

I may be entirely wrong.

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 7:09:39MDT - Msg ID:28919)
comment
ss of nep,

We (US) need the flow of oil more than anyone else out there! If someone drops the dollar or the IMF we will protect our oil flow even if it means supporting the Euro to do it.

Just a thought my friend. be back later

Trail Guide

Trail Guide (4/18/2000; 7:00:01MDT - Msg ID:28918)
PGA

Trader Gold

We are seeing more and more disappointment from the "Trader Gold" crowd. Their motives and reasoning is commented on widely by the media and spread over the internet. Often studied as the way a "Gold Bug " thinks, recently the Western investor world sees these examples as a reason to
stay away from gold not buy into it. For years this group was mixed in with all the other "gold bugs" and was considered "one - in - the - same". They are not and only now is the difference becoming more clear.

The distinction between gold stocks, contract gold and physical gold investments is widening as the relative "soundness" of these asset classes is further exposed daily. In the past, as long as all gold vehicle valuations held within a tradable ratio of each other "Trader Gold Bugs" could hide within the "Gold Bug" community and proclaim all the fine attributes of a "physical gold advocate". But
this current protracted political involvement in the gold "paper marketplace" is dividing "Gold Bugs" into their two clear different groups and showing their two clearly different reasons to be in gold.

Over the last three years, Trader Gold Bugs (TGBs) have fallen further and further behind "Physical Gold Advocates" (PGAs) as their leveraged investments are more percentage impacted by a falling contract gold system. No longer able to keep quiet, the pain that their leverage brought them is
forcing an ever more vocal (and irrational) response to the movements in gold prices.

Every $2 drop is seen as a total failure of gold and every $2 rise as pathetic and proving how gold is done in for the count. Truly, these are the perceptions of investors trading either a "Paper Gold Market Place" or a leveraged "Gold Industry". Not the feelings of a Physical Gold Advocate holding a sound world class financial asset! One that's holding it's own strongly in the face of massive
official manipulation.

The TGB crowd is hopping that more of their same kind will soon exit the stock markets and put money in "their kind" of paper assets. All the while ignoring the logic this dictates as it invites the same "hot Money" trading using the same "leverage" that is now failing Trader Bugs. If indeed
contract gold rises $10, $30 or $80 and pulls in some of the stock crowd, that same "fast mentality" will surely run away at the first sign of more official paper gold creation. Further damaging the publics view of Real Gold".

Indeed, the TBG experience is today sinking from it's own exposure to public view. A strategy that takes a 1970s gold precedent and continues to extrapolate it into our future. Yet it is failing from an evolving gold arena. Our gold success for tomorrow will rest on a new and different dynamic not the aging leveraged games of years past.

The precedent for the future of gold is found much further in the past than the 70s. It is a return to natural human economic reasoning of what wealth always has been and is now. This thinking is being helped on by a changing official recognition of what gold should do and be as an asset class
in official and public hands. Taken from a time when Freegold ruled the wealth world, physical gold will tomorrow be the investment of our future from today.

The old TGB experience will go the way of past fads of the investing world as a modern, smart, new investor steps from the fog of all paper leverage failures. Not just leverage gold failures! To their credit new generations do understand when an old investment strategy is little more than the
"old baggage" of their fathers. The event that marks the end of carrying this dollar luggage is an ending currency timeline that is directly ahead. Clean, non leveraged new money is getting ready for it today with physical gold.

Looking ever forward we are today joining a new dynamic force in the world. Physical Gold Advocates are now using sound, responsible reasoning while building a rock solid alliance with the economic builders of tomorrow. The future holds that Physical Gold will not be savings. Nor will not be a hedge. It will not even be an investment.

For those with the courage to follow in the "Footsteps of Giants", gold will be the opportunity of a lifetime!

Thank you

Trail Guide

ss of nep (4/18/2000; 6:59:30MDT - Msg ID:28917)
@ Black Blade
You Said :

"However, if a country were to do so and say the hell with the IMF agreement, then what? "

- - - -

My Answer:

The US and UK would do the same to them as to IRAQ and LIBIA.

Black Blade (4/18/2000; 6:41:12MDT - Msg ID:28916)
re: @oldgold
Yes indeed. I understand that the IMF would not be pleased. However, if a country were to do so and say the hell with the IMF agreement, then what? Would they try to impose trade sanctions? Call in any markers they may have left on the table so to speak (ie loans, etc.)? Just an interesting thought in regards to Haruko Fukuda's remarks about such a possibility. I would think that this would certainly open a very large "Can-O-worms".

Bonedaddy (4/18/2000; 6:35:07MDT - Msg ID:28915)
tedw
Ptotecting GOLD
tedw, you wrote:"It is only a matter of time before they take away your right to own guns. Theyve done it with your other rights, so why cant they do it with that one also."
The answer to that one is pretty obvious bro. To the armed man, government rule is based on voluntary compliance. WE THE PEOPLE are the government. In these western United States gun banners are tossed out of office! Our state constitutions protect the right to bear arms. The tenth amendment of the US constitution protects the states right to do as it pleases as far as guns go. Short of a house to house search, (which is tactically speaking very costly to carry out), as long as people do not comply, gun confiscation is still not possible. Small town cops and national guardsmen are heavily pro-freedom individuals. Any door to door efforts would have to be carried out by "outsiders". With the exception of small spec opts units like Seals, Green Berets, or Spetsnaz the "American Hunter" is the best trained, best equipped, most skilled fighter on the planet. If "peace keepers" come here, we'll be taking their weapons, eating their MRE's, and flying their choppers before their last letters reach home. Why not just march into Somalia and start going door to door taking weapons? Oh sorry, I think Clinton tried that. It seems that they didn't recognize our governments right to do so. Cheer up tedw, as long as you're armed, you are free, man!

oldgold (4/18/2000; 6:32:43MDT - Msg ID:28914)
Currency Link to Gold?
The IMF forbids member countries to link their currencies to gold. The US Treasury controls the IMF -- so they probably would come down hard on any country that broke ranks.

Black Blade (4/18/2000; 5:58:37MDT - Msg ID:28913)
Currency - Gold link?
For discussion purposes
Just wondering, if S. Africa or any gold producing nation links it's currency to gold, would others follow? Sort of monkey see, monkey do? Or will international pressures come to bear? If one country breaks ranks, then what? Would such an action in itself spark a significant gold rally? How ever it were to go, it would certainly be interesting!

Black Blade (4/18/2000; 5:50:21MDT - Msg ID:28912)
More: Wakeup Call.
Source: Bridge News
GOLD MEET: Gold seen as "logical" currency for e-commerce

Palm Springs, Calif.--Apr 17--The unique attributes of gold--it is non-national, not managed like the currencies of today's nations--make it the logical choice of money for global commerce and the best payment system for e-commerce, said market commentator James Turk of Freemarket Gold & Money Report. Speaking at the Gold and Silver Institute annual meeting here, Turk is the founder of an Internet venture called GoldMoney.com, the objective of which is to enable gold to circulate as a currency in global e-commerce. (Story.18682)

Black Blade: Gold.com, Hmmm�.., first e-gold, then goldavenue.com, now��

GOLD MEET: Barrick shares not fully reflecting value, says exec

Palm Springs, Calif.--Apr 17--The share price of Canadian gold mining giant Barrick Gold Corp is not fully reflecting the fact that the company is "making a lot of money," the company's chief financial officer, Jamie Sokalsky told Bridge News. He said that many industries are seeing languishing share prices as investors have moved to "dot coms and tech stocks." (Story .11405)

Black Blade: These guys just can't take a hint! It's called hedging!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gold explorations intensify in western Zambia

Lusaka, Zambia--Apr 18--Explorations for gold deposits in western Zambia have intensified, say recent reports. According to the National Mirror, the mine ministry's senior economist Phineas Zulu said that Phelps Dodge, Caledonia Mining and HJC Mining are among the international firms prospecting in the
region. (Story .12070)

Black Blade: And that said, unlike Barrick, these guys appear to have confidence in their product!

Black Blade (4/18/2000; 5:40:30MDT - Msg ID:28911)
Morning Wakeup Call.
Source: Bridge News
GOLD MEET:WGC chief says some nations re-think gold, currency link

Palm Springs, California--Apr 17--Some countries are already in discussions with the International Monetary Fund for exploring the possibility of it changing the ban on linking currencies to gold, said Haruko Fukuda, chief executive officer of the World Gold Council, pointing out that many have become
more open minded since the Asian currency crisis and are 'not ruling anything out.' (Story .25160)

Black Blade: Mark Mobius of Templeton Funds reportedly had made this suggestion to S. African officials concerning the Rand and a link to Gold. Hmmm��

GOLD MEET: Metals was preferred hedge in Y2K, says FideliTrade

Palm Springs, California--April 17--The Y2K experience shows that gold and silver can be used as a hedge against uncertainty, said Michael Clark, managing director at FideliTrade Inc. Speaking at the annual Gold and Silver Institute conference here, he said that the fears of a breakdown in the banking system was not isolated to zealots and extremists, but that more sophisticated investors were turning to precious metals. (Story .11298)

Black Blade: Well, well, now are PMs to become a mainstream alternative? My my, what will they do on CNBC? I guess the boys and girl will be foaming at the mouth.

Black Blade (4/18/2000; 5:33:15MDT - Msg ID:28910)
More massaging the indices today?
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
Yesterday's market action seems to provide more fuel for the PPT theory. About 3 hours before the NYSE open, s&p futures were down -21.50. Shortly after they rocketed to the plus-side in a matter of minutes as derivative and options positions were aggressively purchased by unknown buyers. Is this collusion among investment houses or the often cited so-called PPT? The advance decline line is still decidedly negative with only 1280 stock advancing and 1729 declining on the NYSE, and 1752 advancing and 2614 declining on the NASDAQ. This morning, the s&p futures are currently down -8.00, but were down -10.20 a couple of hours ago. Are these forces preparing to charge forward with a narrowly focused purchase program in an effort to prime the markets for another rally. We shall know soon enough.

oldgold (4/18/2000; 5:21:34MDT - Msg ID:28909)
Gold rally
I disagree with Kaplan on what factors will ignite a gold rally. The public almost never initiates a rally in anything -- they generally jump aboard once the big boys have started to move. They are FOLLOWERS, NOT LEADERS

I see the dollar as key. Once the greenback starts a sustained move south, gold should rally significantly. But unless lease rates move sharply higher, I doubt that even a sharp drop in the greenback could push POG over $300.

HI - HAT (4/18/2000; 4:43:39MDT - Msg ID:28908)
Jack 28905 Civil Disobediance
My advise is to buy gold in any form you deem to be prudent. There comes a time when Civil Disobediance is the patriotic order of the day. The Federal Criminals can throw a confiscation party, but you need not attend.

HI - HAT (4/18/2000; 4:29:41MDT - Msg ID:28907)
Soveriegn Family Units
Each family unit like atoms and molecules make up the larger body politic. It is collectivist nonsense and Marxist propaganda that feeds a continuing driving force to nullify the Constitution and Bill of Rights. Whose very purpose was to enshrine an exaltation and sanctity to the supreme empowerment of the individual. The Founding Fathers' mindset was that only with strong individuals could the collective manifest strengh. Now we have the opposite mindset. The power of the state is to be safeguarded no matter what sacrifice(stealing),is put upon the people.

All of us are freeborn into the Constitution and Bill of Rights of our Fathers. We owe no allegiance to the dictates and proscriptions of a criminally,treasonous Federal apparatus. They are law breakers who continually act against the OATH of office they all took and need to be brought DOWN.

Netking (4/18/2000; 3:58:13MDT - Msg ID:28906)
Kaplan outlook
Steven Kaplan writes in his latest;
When is gold likely to rally most sharply?
ANSWER: Having been accustomed to buying stocks on dips, since
this strategy has worked so well for a decade, investors who have sold high-tech shares and are trying to decide what to do with their money are
anxiously awaiting each move in the Nasdaq, not only because of fear of losing money in a continued decline, but of lingering worry about missing out
on a rally. Once the Nasdaq has attempted to move higher over some period of time and ends up plunging sharply lower once again, a core of
investors will conclude that the Nasdaq is not going to rebound after all, and will finally commit to gold and its shares as the only viable liquid
alternative which has the potential for a double-digit gain.

Agree/disagree with this?

Jack (4/18/2000; 3:34:32MDT - Msg ID:28905)
"easy" Q from 1st time poster: what FORM is best for having bullion?
Greetings. I have enjoyed lurking these past few weeks,
following the wisdom offered by knowledgeable forum
roundtable members.

Due to Y2K concerns, last year I acquired gold in the form
of American gold eagle coins, mainly 1/10 oz; and silver,
all in the form of 90% (junk) pre-1965 quarters. This form
was touted at the time as being best in the U.S. for worst
case Y2K bartering scenarios.

I would like to buy more gold and silver bullion, on a
regular basis. I know that there are many issues
concerning "legal tender" (confiscation legality),
numismatic appeal, etc., etc. With this in mind, I would
like to know what is recommended for "optimum" physical
gold and silver buying, including the best "bang for the
buck" (maybe bars over coins?).

Thank you in advance.

SHIFTY (4/18/2000; 0:55:34MDT - Msg ID:28904)
bubble /cnbc /hot air
Could all the hot air out of cnbc not only keep the bubble inflated, but be the cause of the global warming?

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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